Another Close Miss For Needed Vermont Rainfall. At Least We'll Get Some Though

NOAA rainfall map for the next seven days. 
In northwest New York and in Maine, the lighter
shades of blue indicate generally 0.75 to 1 inch
of rain. Vermont is in a gap (green shading)
with predictions of only at most a half inch
 of rain with less than a quarter inch south.

Meteorologists are still watching that strong cold front that's slowly approaching us in Vermont with its needed rainfall.  

And we'll get some. But the forecast is infuriating. For us in the Green Mountain State, anyway. 

The front is forecast to dump up to an inch of rain on northern and northwestern New York tonight and early Friday. 

Then the rainfall will weaken, giving us just a third of an inch of rain (give or take) north, and less than a quarter inch south.

Once the front gets past us, it will get its act together again and dump more than three quarters of an inch of rain in parts of Maine tomorrow. 

Yes, New York and Maine desperately need the rain, so this weather front will be nice. But what are we in Vermont? Chopped liver?  Don't answer that. 

We'll take any rain we can get, so the little bit we'll receive will put a smile on my face,  but come on!  The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later this morning, so we'll get an update on how things are trending in Vermont. My guess is not great.

I'l do an update post once we have that new Drought Monitor information later today.  

CHILLY

Cool weather is the other story. It got chillier than expected around much of Vermont early this morning, another sign that autumn is making inroads.

Readings bottomed out at 39 degrees at both Montpelier, and especially surprising, Bennington.  I wouldn't be surprised if some cold hollows made it into the mid-30s. 

South winds in the Champlain Valley kept temperatures there in the low 50s. It'll be briefly warmer today ahead of the front, but not exactly hot. Most of us will get into the 70s, with some upper 70s in warmer valleys. That's maybe around normal for this time of year. 

You'll probably need your hoodie both Friday and Saturday, which will decidedly not be classic Labor  Day weekend beach days. The bulk of whatever showers we get will lurk around Vermont Friday, and that will hold temperatures in the 60s for most of us. 

Saturday will be a classic autumn in August day with breezes from the west,  partly to mostly cloudy skies, with some light, inconsequential showers around.  

Sunday will bring more sun, though it won't necessarily be crystal clear out there.  The chances of showers diminish, but sprinkles are still possible over the northern mountains. The pick of the Labor Day weekend is Monday. It'll start cool, but under sunshine, temperatures should manage to get well into the 70s. Maybe even 80 degrees in the warmest, sunniest valleys. 

The drought will certainly continue. Most of next week looks dry and warm, with low humidity. Our next shot at any rain after tomorrow's cold front will be next Thursday night or Friday. It's still too soon to say whether that late week rain will amount to much.

Planning Your Labor Day Vermont Weekend: Rain To Sun, Summer To Autumn

Vermont's Labor Day weekend will bring a variety of 
weather, but we're hoping skies on Monday will
look like they did here in St. Albans yesterday
Note the hints of fall color in the trees. It's
possible a little wildfire smoke might make the sky
not quite as blue as this Monday, but then again,
the smoke could miss us.    Rain on Saturday, though.

 UPDATE 6 PM FRIDAY

Forecasters have backed off a little with the rain on Saturday. You might be able to get some outdoor stuff done in the morning, as rain could well hold off a bit, according to late Friday afternoon forecasts.

So far, no other major changes to the weekend forecast

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The Labor Day weekend is upon us, the last unofficial weekend of summer. I hope you get a chance to enjoy some time off.  

Weather always factors into the planning, of course. 

So, overall here's the idea:

Saturday: Plan on doing something indoors, especially afternoon/evening.

Sunday: The beach day, with a big asterisk

Monday: Take a hike. Or do something outdoors. 

Here are the details:

Yesterday, we unofficially declared summer in Vermont over. As if to emphasize the point, a strong cold front will take us from a brief squirt of humid weather later Saturday and Sunday to a classic autumn, crisp day on Labor Day itself. 

If you're getting an early start to the weekend, today looks fine. We should see quite a bit of sun, and it will be a little warmer than yesterday.  The warmest valleys could touch 80. It'll be kind of breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley as south winds are picking up

The main surge of wet air will come well ahead of the cold front. Saturday looks to be very nearly a washout, with high chances of rain all day. You'll also notice it getting more and more humid as the day passes. 

Most of us will a half inch to an inch of rain, which all of our rivers and streams should be able to handle just fine. The only danger is there could be isolated instances in which heavy showers form in a line that hits the same spot repeatedly.  If that were to happen, we'd see - once again - so very local trouble with water. 

I'm not too worried, though.  If that happens, it'll be pretty isolated, and not extreme like some of the storms we saw over the summer.

For Sunday, I said above it's the beach day, but you will need to be ready to scramble. We'll have a partly sunny, breezy, somewhat humid day as temperatures climb to near 80 once again.  That's why it will at least start off as a nice beach day. 

But that cold front will be approaching with at least a broken line of showers and thunderstorms that will come through mid to late afternoon, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington tells us. 

So, if you hear thunder or see dark clouds coming, grab your beach stuff and rush over to the car.  The thunderstorms probably won't be severe, though some might be strong with gusty winds. Enough to cause a few broken branches and a couple power outages in the very worst cases. Nothing widespread, though. 

Monday will be that crisp autumn day we talked about. Perfect for a hike to the summit of  Camels Hump, or an excursion to an apple orchard, or a boat ride on the lake. 

Highs will only reach the 60s, and there should be a steady northwest breeze. Temperatures should fall back pretty quickly toward sunset, so bring a hoodie.

I'm hoping we see the type of bright, blue clear skies we saw during that refreshing burst of Canadian air we saw yesterday. 

However, there are some pretty big fires burning in central Canada. It's possible the rush of cool air from Canada on Monday will grab some of the smoke and bring it our way. 

If it does, we might be denied the bluebird blue skies, and it could turn out hazy on Monday. Dunno yet. But if some smoke does come our way, it will be mostly high overhead, so air quality down here where we live should be OK. 

Some Weather Excitement Around Vermont This Week?

Don't count on a gorgeous early morning like this today
in St Albans, Vermont. It doesn't necessarily promise
a nice day........

 The way storm systems and weather fronts act in the North Country this time of year can be interesting.

In full summer, storm systems are weak, and you need a lot of instability and heat and humidity to trigger strong thunderstorms.  

Now, we have a hybrid situation. Storm systems are stronger, so you get more non-thunderstorm winds, and possibly more widespread rain than in midsummer. The heat is weaker, but with stronger upper level support, you can still get some fairly strong thunderstorms.

It looks like we have two examples of that coming in Vermont. One today, one Wednesday. At this point, neither storm system looks like it will cause anything super scary, but we'll have to watch the skies on both occasions. 

The first one comes through Vermont today, mostly hitting from late morning through mid to possibly late afternoon.  It will mostly affect the northern half of the state.

Already, as of 8 a.m. an initial batch of showers was darkening what had been clear blue skies early this morning over St. Albans, Vermont. These weren't amounting to much of anything, but stronger storms were already lurking over Lake Ontario and were edging into the St. Lawrence Valley of New York. 

With strong winds and a pool of cool air organizing aloft, a few storms could end up giving us some gusty winds and small hail. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a marginal risk zone for severe thunderstorms, meaning we could end up with isolated reports of wind damage or hail as we get through this today.  

Sure enough by 9 a.m., an hour after the above photo was
taken, skies were much more threatening. Showers and possibly
a strong storm or two is likely today in Vermont.

I wouldn't cancel Labor Day plans, but do count on at least some rain today, despite our sunny dawn.  

A few places will have to watch out for lightning, strong winds and local downpours.  If you've got some outdoor fun planned, you'll need to set yourself up to be able to run into a building at short notice. 

On the bright side, northern Vermont is really starting to need the rain again, so if the forecast pans out for today, that'll be mostly a good thing. 

After a break and some pretty nice weather Tuesday, Wednesday and Wednesday night are starting to look interesting again, the National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us.

Another potent early autumn storm will be approaching from the west.  This one will be able to pull up even more moisture from the south than this one. 

Out ahead of this storm, gusty south winds will get going, especially in the Champlain Valley.  That's another feature we see at the onset of autumn.  Stronger storm systems can mean stronger winds, especially when south winds get channeled up the Champlain Valley.

We saw that yesterday, with gusts to 32 mph in the Burlington area. We'll see something like that or even a bit stronger Wednesday.

The heavy showers and thunderstorms with this one could end up moving fairly slowly generally east to west Wednesday afternoon and night.  This might raise the risk of some flash flooding, especially in central and southern Vermont, which had a much wetter summer than the north.

The Wednesday forecast will need to be fine tuned as we approach the event, so expect some changes in that forecast. 

Somewhat cool weather with scattered light showers will close out the week behind Wednesday night's storminess.