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| Be cautious driving around Vermont after our flood. Workers are scrambling to repair roads, but you will still encounter problems with the edges of many roadways that are still open. Don't get too close to the sides, they might be undermined. |
As a result, the upper Connecticut River went into minor flood stage, but isn't expected to cause many problems. Lake Champlain is rising a little, but it's well below flood stage and will stay far too low to cause any problems along the shore.
What's left is mourning the losses and picking up the pieces. There are two confirmed deaths. As Vermont Public reports, Dylan Kempton, 33, of Peacham was riding an all-terrain vehicle.
He was apparently trying to get home when a culvert breached, causing a gush of water that swept him away Wednesday night.
The second death was in Lyndonville Thursday morning when Lyndonville Police said John Rice, 73, drove his vehicle into a flooded street and ignored bystanders' warnings to turn around. The truck he was in was swept away and into a hayfield that was under 10 feet of fast-flowing water. His body was recovered later Thursday when floodwater receded, according to the Associated Press.
ADDITIONAL CASUALTIES?
The worry now is more injuries or deaths. Vermont Public Safety Commissioner Jennifer Morrison correctly noted during a Thursday press briefing that many disaster deaths occur after the actual event.
The problem for Vermont is hot, humid weather that remained in place through the flood and will only intensify over the next few days.
It's easy to overheat while doing the hard physical work of clearing debris, shoveling muck and moving destroyed items to the curb and trash bins.
Also, it's a Vermont tradition to head to the swimming holes in our rivers during hot weather. Normally, they're clear and calm and for the most part safe.
Not now. Morrison warned everyone to stay out of rivers. Although the water has receded, currents will remain strong and fast in the coming days. The river bottoms have changed. Where there was once deep water may be spots filled with debris that you can get snagged on, or injured if you dive in. The rivers are now full of contaminants, too.
There are a variety of resources to reach out to seek help, stay informed of road closures and to obtain other information. I won't go through them all here. But VTDigger has a comprehensive article on where to turn for resources, so that's a great place to start.
WEATHER OUTLOOK
Much of the East Coast from South Carolina to Massachusetts is under a flood watch this morning, which would seem ominous for us here in Vermont.
However, heavy rain should pretty much stay away from the Green Mountain State over the next couple days.
A weather front is hung up along the Eastern Seaboard. A strong Bermuda High is sending a plume of deep moisture to interact with the front and cause torrential downpours. So you will see news of continued flooding today and tomorrow in many eastern states.
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| Practically every driveway I saw as I made my way through Richmond, Vermont Thursday was damage. Some just had minor damage, others were impassable. |
A little bit of the heavy rain will probably creep into far southern Vermont. But that part of the state didn't get much rain at all Wednesday and Thursday. If there is any flooding in Bennington and Windham County will be just in a couple pinpoint locations. Nothing widespread.
We will have to watch this zone of torrential rains to our south and east for signs it could unexpectedly shift further north and west our way, but so far, I'm seeing no signs it would do so.
In Vermont's flood zone, there is a chance of a few thunderstorms today and tomorrow. They'll be widely scattered, but given the humidity that's lingering, some will be capable of torrential downpours.
Normally this wouldn't be a problem, but given how unstable rivers and streams are now, there is a low but not zero chance of renewed flash flood problems in one or two spots. For sure, though, nothing widespread.
The heat will build over the next few days, with temperatures Sunday through Tuesday topping out in the 80s to around 90. That humidity will linger, which is why we have those warnings not to over-exert yourself.
More thunderstorms seem like they'll want to develop by Monday and especially Tuesday, so we'll need to watch those for heavy rainers. It's too soon to tell whether they'll cause any trouble or not.
What we really need right now is a spell of cooler, drier weather. There is hope that could arrive toward midweek. For the first time in what will have been about two weeks, signs point to a potential cold front that actually means business to come on through.
If that comes to pass, we'll see at least a couple days of seasonable daytime temperatures, comfortably cool nights and dry air. There could always be something to screw up that forecast, but at least it's something to hope for.
CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change did not "cause" our latest flood disaster, but like the ones we had last July and December, climate change probably influenced it for the worse.
Former Hurricane Beryl brought tons of tropical moisture to New England to add to the high humidity that was already here. So there was plenty of water in the air to set off downpours. All they needed was a trigger or triggers.
The forecasts leading up to the event were great. They indicated a warm front would very nearly stall over north central Vermont, providing a focus for lift and convergence in the atmosphere. That would cause lots of rising air, creating the conditions for all that moisture to condense into torrential rains and thunderstorms.
That's exactly what happened.
The most favorable spot for thunderstorms was right along that warm front. Starting about mid-afternoon Wednesday, those storms formed in New York, and paraded, one after another, into Addison County, then through the middle of Vermont and on up into the Northeast Kingdom. This continued well into the night, unleashing those downpours that ultimately led to three to as much as seven inches of rain in a matter of hours.
The disaster was on.
Some of those storms had a fair amount of spin to them, prompting tornado warnings in New York just to the west of Vermont, and in northern New Hampshire. Some of the storms in Vermont were severe, and brought down a few trees, especially in Addison County.
There were some suspicious clouds in Bridport, New Haven and Monkton that seemed to rotate and boil as if a twister wanted to perhaps touch down, but so far there have been no reports of a Vermont tornado.
But the flooding is the main show anyway.
Climate change fits in because it generally makes the atmosphere warmer. That makes it have a greater capacity to hold moisture. So a storm like the one we had Wednesday night was probably able to produce more torrential downpours than a similar system would have decades ago.
The oppressive heat and humidity we experienced in the days leading up to the disaster, and the days that will follow could well have a climate connection as well. It's true that we've always had heat waves. But recent summers have been warmer and featured fewer breaks from the humidity that we used to see a generation or two ago.
This summer is certainly following that climate change warm pattern.
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