Autumn In July For Vermont, For A Couple Days, Anyway

Part of my perennial garden in St. Albans, Vermont
enjoys a little evening sun after a bit of rain 
earlier in the day, The gardens will now cool off
a bit in a mid-summer break from the heat and humidity,

Autumn is here! Well, kinda, sorta, for a day or two.

Yesterday's storm system is long gone, having caused few problems locally. A band of strong storms did pass through southern Vermont and points south.  The only trouble from those I've seen so far in Vermont is in Saxtons River, where a tree fell on a house on Sunday. 

There were numerous reports of tree and wire damage, and some structural damage in the New York Capitol District, and in what you might want to call Rhodachusecut, basically southern New England.

A series of reinforcing cold fronts came through the last night, and the cool weather is here. 

This means for the next two or three days we in the Green Mountain State face something we basically haven't seen all summer: No heat, no humidity, no severe storm threat, no flash flooding, heck, no rain! It even looks like we'll have a reprieve from that wildfire smoke for a few days. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY/TONIGHT

A classic September day is on tap. Which is interesting, since right around July 21 is on average the hottest part of the summer. 

A few lingering showers early this morning should depart.  I said no rain above, but you do need an exception in everything. There could also be a sprinkle or two over the mountains today. 

In the broader valleys and in southeast Vermont, we'll call today partly sunny. Some clouds will be around, but I imagine the sun will be out half the time, or almost that.  I think the mountains and the Northeast, Kingdom will stay on the cloudy side, but even those places will have breaks of sun. 

Highs today should only get into the low 70s in the Champlain Valley and 60s across the rest of northern and central Vermont. The warmest parts of southern Vermont could reach the mid-70s. All this is pretty average for mid-September. 

It'll be downright chilly for many of us tonight, but look at it as a very comfortable sleeping night. Most of Vermont will be in the 40s by dawn Tuesday. We might even seen a 38 or 39 in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom. There might be some low 50s near Lake Champlain.  

Although all this is all pretty nippy compared to the weather we've had in most recent summers, historically, this cool spell is a yawner. In the 20th century and before, this kind of comfortable spell in a Vermont summer was routine, and it very often use to get much colder than this in July, 

It has been as cold as 39 degrees in Burlington in July and 29 degrees in West Burke (back in 1962),  Frost would hit the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom every once in awhile.  Climate change has now turned a routine July cool spell into something that now feels kind of exceptional, 

REST OF WEEK

Tuesday stays bright, sunny and cool for the season with highs in the 70s.  Tuesday night looks on the cool side, too, but not as chilly as tonight. The return to summer begins Wednesday, as we should be back in the 80s. 

By Thursday, it's back to the the heat and humidity, as it could reach 90 again. After that, the "heat dome" we keep talking about will center itself right in the middle of the U.S.  The heat will get nasty in most of the nation except the West Coast and maybe here in New England, 

Here in Vermont, it's going to be iffy. It seems like the door will be open for a series of weak cold fronts from the northwest starting the end of this week and going into August. But squirts of hot, humid air could also make it in between the fronts. And unlike the current cool spell, the air after each upcoming cold front won't be all that cold.

So, the consensus is for temperatures near or slightly above normal heading into early August, with near to perhaps slightly above normal precipitation. 

But that's just the broad brush. The devil is in the details, which we simply don't have. I almost guarantee some sort of surprise or two in that general weather pattern, but there's no telling what that might be. So we'll stay on our toes.