"Slow" Start To Atlantic Hurricane Season Just Started Getting More Interesting

 Now that we're into August, it's time to watch the Atlantic tropics more intently. 

After a slow, but typical start of the Atlantic hurricane
season, the ocean is suddenly abuzz with areas
that might develop into storms. 

Right on schedule, there are signs of life in the tropical Atlantic.  There's nothing dire going on. But it's a sign the danger season is about here.   

As of today, Sunday, there are now two sort of interesting areas in the Atlantic. Neither is a big threat but one of them has potential to be quite a ways down the road. 

The first semi-exciting thing is a small storm forming along an old cold front off the North Carolina coast. The National Hurricane Center gives this thing a 70 percent chance of turning into a tropical or subtropical storm. 

Like the first three tropical systems of this year - Andrea, Barry and Chantal - this thing off the North Carolina coast will be pretty weak and short-lived, if it forms into the fourth named storm of the year, they'll name it Dexter.      

Even weak tropical storms can turn dangerous. The remnants of Barry contributed greatly to the tragic, fatal July 4 weekend flood in central Texas. And Chantal set off destructive flooding in central North Carolina. 

In Wannabe Dexter's case, it should move out into open water and not be a concern. Although a couple models keep it as a weak system but have it hugging the East Coast from North Carolina to New England.   

Since Wannabe Dexter looks lame, it does seem like the 2025 hurricane season is off to a slow start. 

That's actually pretty typical for the early season.  But compared to the hyper-active past few years, the summer of 2025 just seems anemic in the tropical storm department. 

But there's other parts of the Atlantic that's making hurricane forecasters sit up and take notice. One of them is a disturbance off the Southeast Coast that could develop into something late in the week. 

Another, possibly more ominous disturbance is expected to come off the west coast of Africa.  This type of disturbance usually have the potential to develop into a real hurricane, if overall conditions in the Atlantic Ocean work out. 

This one is the first African disturbance that has the potential into developing into something a bit scary. It will be watched carefully once it reaches the central Atlantic Ocean.  It's way too early to figure out for sure if it will indeed turn into a hurricane if so, where it will go. For now, it has a 40 percent chance of developing into...something. 

The bottom line the heart of the hurricane season is just beginning, and hurricane forecasters have to be at the top of their game for the next couple of months at least.  

Sunday Vermont Update: The Smoke Is Back, And How Dry We Are, And Will Be

Image from firesmoke.ca  shows smoke from fires in
central Canada is spreading far and wide in
North America, including here in Vermont 

The smoke is back. 

And it will probably harass us off and on all week while rain (mostly) stays resolutely away from the Green Mountain State. 

Oddly strong high pressure will take the blame and the credit for a long period of dry weather, often smoky skies and warm summer weather. 

Saturday started off pretty clear but the haze thickened through the day. The thickest smoke stayed aloft, but some of the pollution, inevitably, made it to the ground. Evening was a hazy mess, at least in northern parts of the state.

Canada has gotten even smokier as fires have intensify and grown widespread in central parts of that vast nation. New, large fires have also exploded in the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

There's now a hell of a lot of smoke belching into the skies above North America. 

This is a widespread smoke attack. Air quality alerts have been in effect for a few days, and remain on in places like Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin.    Most of Maine and the northern half of New Hampshire joined the air quality alert party Saturday afternoon, warning residents that most of today would be smoky.

By late Saturday afternoon, the National Weather Service office in Burlington, in their forecast discussion, were already monitoring the smoke, which had already turned our skies hazy and greyed out some of our Green Mountain views.

Before dinnertime, the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources issued our own air quality alert.  

TODAY 

That bad air alert is now in effect at least until midnight tonight. The breezes, which had been from the north, have shifted to the south. That will keep the worst of the air toward northern Vermont. The smoke will be even thicker up in Quebec and Ontario.

Still there is some air flow aloft coming from the opposite direction - the north, which would bring more smoke our way.  High pressure systems feature sinking air, so some of that smoke aloft will make it down here to the ground, where we all live and breathe.

The bottom line is that air quality was moderate to unhealthy for sensitive groups this morning.  That already kinda bad air might worsen a little more through the day,  but will not be as bad as the abysmal air quality we endured on July 26.

It'll still be a little rough on the lungs, though.     

Otherwise, another comfortably cool morning will morph into a warm, sunny, if hazy day.  The humidity will stay perfectly reasonable, 

MONDAY

 Weather systems - both storms and areas of fair, sunny weather - tend to be weak this time of year.  But high pressure is growing over Quebec and New England.

This high pressure will be at near record strength for August. It's more typical of the super strong high pressures that give us periods of Indian Summer weather in October if we get lucky. High pressure means sinking air. Sinking air means it's really hard for rain clouds to form. Hence the very dry forecast. 

The southern end of this high pressure over New England is weakening in favor of a center over Quebec. This will send a weak cold front our way tomorrow.  

The air is so dry that at most the front might produce isolated light showers. More than 90 percent of us won't see any rain at all. The very few of us that do see raindrops will get only a trace to maybe a couple hundredths of an inch, Not even enough to wet things down at all. 

The front will bring another wave of smoke with it. so I anticipate some possible new air quality alerts this week. Highs should make it into the 80s again. 

REST OF WEEK

The high pressure will sit strong all week, only slowly dropping south from Quebec through New England between now and next weekend. It's huge, and will extend down as far south as Georgia this week. 

Monday's cold front will make Tuesday a degree or two "cooler" with highs "only" in the 78 to 84 degree range for most of us. 

The orientation of the high, and the fact that it pushed last week's cold front almost all the way to the Gulf Coast. That will deep tropical humidity away from us probably at least through the end of the week. 

That means the air will stay fairly comfortable (aside from any smoke).  I suppose an isolated shower or two could figure out a way to develop over the mountains on one or two afternoons this week, but almost everybody will stay dry. 

We might, maybe could get a bit of a break from the smoke later in the week. Southerly winds in the worst often fire zone in Manitoba and Saskatchewan later this week might temporarily drive most of the smoke north into Nunavut and western Hudson Bay.  

Back here in Vermont, the odd August combination of daily sunshine, sort of low humidity and warm temperatures sets the stage for a growing forest fire risk.

The brush fire risk was already high in the Champlain Valley this weekend, and I imagine the moderate risk on most of the rest of the state will increase to high this week. Watch those campfires, cigarette butts and backyard burns. 

Also, unlikely but possible is the risk of a flash drought.  

This is a weird, long stretch of dry weather with a lack of humidity, quite uncharacteristic of August. If this continues all month, then we have to start worrying about too-dry conditions and possible drought.

It's too early to sound the alarm on that. We could still get a lot of rain starting mid month, we just don't know yet. But I already have to water my gardens thoroughly today for the first time this summer, and that state of affairs should continue. 

The next chance of any more widespread showers looks to be a week from tomorrow, and even that looks iffy at this point.  

August Is Vermont's Month For Historic Heat Waves, (Though Not Saying It Will Happen This Year, I Think)

Then peak of summer might be over in August, but
a majority of Vermont/New England's most intense
heat waves have hit in August. 

 July is the hottest month of the year in Vermont, but most of our most intense heat waves seem to hit in August.  

True, arguably the granddaddy of all New England heat waves hit in July, 1911. And New England endured some historic heat this June.

But August is the place to be for extreme heat. So, if you think our current, refreshing spell of weather is the way things will go this month, think again. 

Here are some of the highlights for August Heat:

August, 1918: Some of the coldest weather on record in Vermont hit in the years 1917 and 1918, so I guess it was a relief to see some 100 degree weather in the Green Mountain State. Vernon reached 102 degrees and Cornwall hit 100.

That heat missed northern Vermont. Burlington got to 91 degrees on one day that month on the seventh. August, 1918 was otherwise a chilly, September-ish month. 

THE 1940s

For some reason, the 1940s brought us a series of torrid Augusts. We haven't seen anything like it since. 

August, 1944:  This was an especially intense and brutally long lasting heat wave. Burlington reached 101 degree on August 11 that year. But it was 89 degrees or hotter for an astonishing nine consecutive days from August 9 to 17. 

Because of climate change, August, 1944 is now relegated to the ninth hottest August on record in Burlington. Individual hot days in more recent years might not have been as extreme as 1944. But in the now-hottest Augusts of 2018, 2021, 2016 and 2022,  the heat has been more consistent, with fewer and less chilly cooler breaks.

August, 1947  The temperature in Burlington, Vermont reached 90 degrees ten times on this month. Dry conditions helped daytime temperatures reach such levels. Portland, Maine had only 0.27 inches of rain that August. The drought that late summer and autumn led to the most devastating wildfires in Maine history. Which is another reason to fear hot summers. 

August, 1948: Bellows Falls had six consecutive days in the 90s, peaking at 98 degrees August 24 to 30, which is awfully late in the season to have that many days so hot. Burlington had a four-day streak in the 90s,  

August, 1949: Burlington hit 90 degrees on eight days this month, part of a summer that brought 26 days with 90 degree readings. That's still the record for the most in a single summer.  

OTHER AUGUST HEAT

August 2, 1975 "Hot Saturday" gave us the hottest temperatures ever recorded in New England.  It reached 107 degrees in Chester and New Bedford, Massachusetts. 

Providence, reached 104 degrees, still the hottest temperature on record for Rhode Island. One weird aspect of the 1975 heat wave is how much it hugged the coast, with absolutely no sea breeze. Nantucket reached 100 degrees for the only time on record there. 

Portland, Maine reached their all-time high of 103 degrees. Portsmouth, New Hampshire reached 102. 

Here in Vermont, it was "cooler" with Burlington reaching 99 degrees.  That's a multi-way tie for third hottest on record. I'm not aware of any official 100 degree readings in Vermont but my unofficial thermometer in West Rutland did hit 100 degrees that day. 

August, 2018, 2021:  The sleepless in Vermont months, as the striking thing about this hottest month on record were the muggy nights, rather than hot days. Only four days got to 90 that month, including a record high of 97 degrees on the 29th. 

But eight days during this month failed to get below 70 degrees in Burlington, It never got cooler than 66 degrees from July 31 through August 9.

August, 2021 had even worse nighttime sleeping weather. Ten nights in Burlington failed to get under 70 degrees, with five consecutive 70 degree or hotter nights from August 9-13. The low on two days in a row never got under 75 degrees. 

THIS AUGUST

All signs continue to point toward mostly warm to hot weather for most of this month. True, yesterday and this morning were the coolest since early June, but that is about to change. 

Burlington has a real shot at being in the 80s every single day from today through the next two weeks. Some of those days could touch 90 by the end of next week. 

We'll see how the end of this month goes, but even those long range forecasts lean toward warmer than normal temperatures. 

Stats Confirm: This July Is Yet Another Hot One, Third One In A Row

A severe thunderstorm over Lamoille County on 
July 10, as seen from a distance from Williston
Vermont. Other than that date, severe 
weather was pretty infrequent in our hot,
humid Vermont July, 2025

 I'm sure you felt and melted in Vermont's tropical July, 2025, and I have the receipts to prove it.

This July was another summer month that didn't really feel like Vermont.   

In Burlington, the mean temperature was 74.6, tying with 1975 and 1995 as the sixth warmest on record. 

This was the third July in a row that was among the top ten warmest on record.  Six of the top 10 warmest Julys have happened since 2018. 

Montpelier had its fifth warmest July on record. 

Unlike June, there was never any super extreme heat. No record highs. The heat was fairly persistent, but not as relentless as last year. We managed to see a substantial break in the tropical conditions on July 20-23 and the 31st. 

Still,  Burlington had eight days that got to 90 degrees or more. Only ten other Julys in the past 125 years had as many or more such days. 

It's telling how much climate change has altered our perception of a "normal" summer.    Under the "new normal" which is the average of temperatures between 1990 and 2020,  July in Burlington was a mere 2.2 degrees above this warmer "average".

Average temperature were much lower in most of the 20th century, of course. In July, 1975. the month Burlington just  tied with for sixth warmest, was at the time more than five degrees warmer than average. 

Rainfall

July in Vermont was dry, except in the Northeast Kingdom, parts of which had a destructive flash flood on July 10.  The month was also a little on the wet side in the extreme northwest. Burlington was close to normal, while my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected a pretty soggy 6.5 inches of July rain. 

Extreme southwest Vermont was also a little on the wet side, but overall, most of the state was dry. A lot of places missed out on many of the typical midsummer shower and thunderstorms.

So far, drought hasn't developed, thanks to the wet spring and early summer.   Given the current forecast, though, I think some parts of Vermont will soon be declared "abnormally dry" though not in drought unless the rain falters for weeks on end. 

St. Johnsbury, having endured by far its wettest month on record last July with an incredible 17 inches of rain, was one of the driest spots in Vermont this year. They only had about 2.4 inches of rain, or about half the usual installment for July. Rutland came up about two inches short for July rainfall 

St Johnsbury is just south of the area hit be the July 10 flash floods in the Northeast Kingdom, which really was the only real extreme weather event of the month, other than the heat and humidity. The July 10 event severely damaged at least a couple homes, and washed away sections of road in Sutton, West Burke and East Haven. 

Thick wildfire smoke from Canada obscures the view for
these fishing enthusiasts at St. Albans Bay,
Vermont on July 26

That same day, severe thunderstorms in Addison County caused some flooding, and tore part of the roof off of Middlebury Union High School.  

Other than that, there were only widely scattered instances of severe thunderstorm damage in Vermont during July, which is usually the peak of what passes for the Green Mountain States severe storm season. 

The other hazard we dealt with was wildfire smoke from Canada. That's been happening most summers lately, in part another negative consequence of climate change. 

 Unlike in the upper Midwest, the smoke in Vermont usually wasn't that bad this July, 

Except on July 26, when the air quality in Vermont was some of the worst ever seen. 

LOOKING AHEAD

In June, NOAA released its outlook for July, indicating it would be a hot month around here. They were right. That forecast also leaned hesitantly toward July being a wee bit wetter than normal.  I give that a win, too, since a few places in Vermont had some extra precipitation, while others were dry.  

As we know, August is opening with cool weather. That won't last. Forecasts have us shifting to warmer than normal temperatures by Sunday afternoon, 

We lose about an hour and a half of daylight, so normal temperatures will start to cool, especially during the second half of the month.  That's only if we have some semblance of a typical pattern.

We do know that after we get through today and tomorrow, odds lean really heavily toward above normal temperatures through mid-month, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Precipitation chances during the first half of the month in this forecast seem to be near normal, maybe ever so slightly leaning toward heavier than normal toward mid month. 

Beyond mid month, forecasts get even more tenuous. The deeper into the future you go, the higher the odds forecasts will be off. Still, NOAA's three to four week outlook released today still leans pretty strongly toward above normal temperatures here. Rainfall is a tossup between above or below normal, so take your guess. 

Remarkable Vermont Temperature Crash On Friday, But It Won't Last

Some interesting patterns in an otherwise dull gray
overcast in St. Albans, Vermont late Friday afternoon,
Friday was much cooler than the most of the rest of
our sticky, steamy July was. 

Well, Friday was a change, that's for sure.  

Unlike most of Vermont's July, which featured a lot of warmth and humidity, it got downright chilly.  Especially under the rain clouds in southern Vermont. Not that I'm complaining. 

Looking at the receipts, the change in the weather was striking. Especially for summer, when there's usually not a lot of variability in temperatures. 

Springfield, Vermont really has had a southern flavored summer so far, enduring 15 days so far this year of 90 degrees or more,. 

On Thursday. it was 90 degrees at 4 p.m. in Springfield.  Exactly 24 hours hours later, at 4 p.m. Friday, it was 62 degrees. That 28-degree drop must have been a shock to the system.

Over in Bennington, it was only 61 degrees at 4 p.m. In Vermont this time of year, it should be at least 80 degrees at that hour. 

As expected, the heavier rain Friday was confined to far southern Vermont. Bennington picked up 1.19 inches, and Woodford State Park had an inch.

Once you got about 20 miles north of Route 9, precipitation was much lighter. Townsend and Springfield only had a quarter inch of rain. Rutland had only 0.02 inches. North of that, just sprinkles. 

Away from Vermont, also as expected, there was flash flooding in the Mid-Atlantic states. Like there's been a zillion times this summer, it seems. 

Back here in the Green Mountain state, skies cleared even faster than expected Friday evening, so temperatures were able to get pretty cool by this morning, especially along and north of Route 4, where it was clear the longest. Most of northern and central Vermont was down in the 40s. 

The perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was down to 37 degrees. Burlington was at 51 degrees at 6 a.m. today, the coldest temperature there since June 3.

COOL AT FIRST  

The peak of summer is over, and temperatures Friday and this morning seem to prove it. But summer is not done with us, at all.  We have a lot of warm air to get to. Eventually. 

The dreariness we saw Friday is gone. It's back to bright sunshine, which will boost afternoon readings back up into the 70s.  That's still a little cool for this time of year, but not be that much. A few puffy clouds will grace our  blue skies. today, so it's be pretty out there.  We'll only have a  faint hint of that persistent wildfire smoke from Canada.

Dawn Saturday will be just as chilly as this morning. Clear skies, light winds and dry air will ensure that. But another sunny day Saturday will bring temperatures well into the 70s to near 80. The wildfire smoke might be a little more noticeable than today, but not so thick as to be a major health hazard. 

Saturday night will be another cool, comfortable night.

THE WARMUP

This cool spell will be short-lived, much shorter than forecasts from about a week ago indicated. This is one persistent summer.

By Sunday, we'll be back in the 80s as that cool, big high pressure moves off to our east a little. Every day next week will be in the 80s for most of us. There could even be a 90 degree reading in hot spots like Springfield. 

Usually, in the summer, once big high pressure passes to the east, both temperatures and humidity surges

This time the temperature will definitely go up, but the humidity will stay pretty reasonable. Dew points near 50 today and tomorrow will rise to near 60 or starting Sunday and stay that way going through at least Wednesday. That's vaguely humid if you're sensitive to it, but it's nowhere near oppressive and awful.

The humidity won't go up much because the strong high pressure that's causing this long period of sunshine and dry weather will stay near Quebec and New England. It won't have a good connection to the tropical Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. 

Forest Fires

The long stretch of mostly sunny, dry weather, with minimal chances of showers, means we'll have to watch for forest fire hazards. We already had a forest fire in Fair Haven last week that covered at least 12 acres. The was a small brush fire in Alburgh a couple days ago. 

I have a feeling that some errant camp fires or backyard burns or flicked cigarettes could touch off a few more fires in and around Vermont this week. It won't be anything cataclysmic like what's going on in Canada, but we still don't need to add to the problem. 

There are signs we could see a period of hot, and notably more humid air toward the end of next week. That's a long way off and things could still change. 

But it'll be awhile before we see the cool, brisk and crisp breezes of autumn. 

It won't be  until later next week that the humidity will be able to surge in.