Another Dent In The Drought? Vermont/New England Looks Forward To New Storm

A beautiful, crisp late autumn day yesterday in St 
Albans, Vermont. The blue skies did not necessarily
mean a return to extended dry weather. Another
soggy storm appears to be on the way, 

Us Vermonters enjoyed a beautiful late autumn day Tuesday. Bright sunshine, crisp air, deep blue skies. And in the warmer valleys, lingering gorgeous fall color. 

We had a lot of bright, sunny days over the past few months, which is the problem.  That's how we got into the deep drought the region has endured this autumn. So as wonderful as Tuesday's weather was, is this the start of a new drug trend?  

The great news is no, it's not.

We have another rather sunny, dry day today. But we have another storm coming, and it looks like another sopping wet one. 

So after today, we're in for another extended period of unpleasant weather. Who knew we'd actually look forward to crummy conditions outside?

THE DETAILS

A pretty deep storm is gathering itself over the southeastern U.S. today. It'll move northward today and tonight, ending up somewhere in or near New York State tomorrow night.

Meanwhile, a new storm will get going near the New England coast Thursday night in tandem with the New York storm tomorrow.

This whole mess will be pulling in lots of moisture from the Atlantic Ocean. It looks like it might even tap into Hurricane Melissa for a bit of an added boost of wetness.  (I'm doing a separate post this morning on that horrible hurricane). 

If the forecast is accurate, Vermont, along with most of the rest of New England, is in for more than an inch of rain with this one. 

Initial forecasts bring more than an inch of badly
needed rain to Vermont Thursday through early
Saturday. Rain is needed to put another dent 
into our deep drought. 

As you can see in the map I've put in this post, the National Weather Service in South Burlington thinks all of Vermont should get an inch or more of rain by early Saturday morning. 

There will be adjustments either up or down on this forecast before the storm arrives, but you get the idea. 

This will be the second soggy storm within 10 days, and we've had other bursts of lighter rain in between. I really think this will diminish the drought somewhat. 

It'll take months of above normal precipitation to fully erase the drought. But for now, we seem to be on the right path. 

The rain should start to arrive Thursday afternoon.  It'll be steadiest and heaviest Thursday night and early Friday. After that, it will turn more showery.  Much of Vermont will be raw and blustery and kind of wet Friday afternoon and into Saturday. 

Precipitation the will be lighter, with the most in northern Vermont, especially the mountains. Valleys, especially in southeastern parts of the state, will have dry periods later Friday and Saturday.  

Like every storm, this one has its quirks and complications. Well also being dealing with gusty winds in some areas, and snow in others. Yeah, it's that time of year. 

WIND

The winds won't exactly be really destructive. This won't be any stretch of the imagination be New England's version of Hurricane Melissa.

But as the storm approaches Thursday, the strongest winds winds will hit the western slopes of the Green Mountains. I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts to 40 mph in those areas. 

Then, the new storm that will have formed along the New England coast will really crank itself up as it departs toward the Canadian Maritimes. That means gusty northwest winds for everybody around here Friday night and Saturday. 

SNOW

Now that we're about to get into November, almost every storm will bring more snow than the last. Our mountain summits were graced with a bit of white last week. This storm will bring even more snow. And at lower elevations than the last one, 

The Green Mountain summits should start snowing by early Saturday, and they could a few inches by Sunday. Just to whet skier and snowboarder appetites, I guess.

By Sunday morning, some snow flakes could get as low as 1,200 feet in elevation, says the National Weather Service. So places where people actually live in Vermont will see a little snow, even if it doesn't accumulate.

Saturday will be the rawest, coldest, ugliest day we've had yet. It'll be mainly cloudy, with those gusty winds and temperatures falling through the 40s. Light showers will probably linger, especially north and mountains. And of course those showers will be in the form of snow in the mountains. 

That will be a good slap of reality as we open the month of November, won't it?  

MORE RAIN?

Things should quiet down by Sunday, with seasonable early November weather and no precipitation to speak of, aside from some mountain snow flurries.

Something else looks like it would come through about Tuesday, but it won't be nearly as wet as what the storm at the end of this week. 

The computer models disagree on what will happen early next week. It could be just a cold front with light showers, or a full fledged storm with moderate rain.  

The overall weather pattern does look like an improvement over August, September and early October, though. We've lost those big, dry high pressure systems that would stall over us for days or even weeks at a time.

The new weather pattern doesn't really favor lots of super soaker storms, so don't count on any lingering drought to disappear. But at least some precipitation is likely once every two to four days heading into the middle of November, so we might not backslide into worsening drought again, which would be nice. 

 

friday night saturday

 Cold air advection will allow snow levels
to fall through the weekend as well, from about 2000 ft early
Saturday morning to around 1200 ft Sunday morning. As such, the
higher elevations will likely see rain change over to snow, with
some light accumulations expected, particularly over 1500 ft. The
cold air advection and steep lapse rates will also bring blustery
north/northwest winds, especially Friday night and Saturday when 

gusts up to 30 mph are possible.