Hurricane Melissa Even Stronger On Approach To Jamaica. Very Scary

Satellite photo of Hurricane Melissa this afternoon.
It's a classic example of a super strong hurricane at
its peak. Note the perfectly circular core surrounding
a tiny eye, and a huge spray of outflow clouds
mainly to its east. 

The 5 p.m. update on Hurricane Melissa from the National Hurricane Center just came in and it's not a good one.  

Top sustained winds in Melissa were at 175 mph. 

One measurement around noon or so indicated a surface wind of 188 mph, which, if accurate, is incredible. 

According to meteorologist/hurricane expert John Morales, the air pressure at the center of Melissa was 908 millibars early this afternoon, which made it the 11th strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic. 

As of 5 p.m. the pressure was down to 906 millibars, making it the strongest Atlantic hurricane for so late in the season. Melissa is also the world's strongest tropical cyclone so far in 2025.

The hurricane is forecast to make landfall Tuesday on the southern coast of Jamaica probably on the western half of the island. Everybody there, including tourists, were hunkering down and hoping for the best. The airports are closed, and cruise lines have gotten out of Dodge, so to speak. 

As of midafternoon, Melissa was already responsible for eight deaths, five in Haiti, two in Jamaica and one in Dominican Republic. 

The main body of Melissa is a perfectly circular buzzsaw, with its intense winds still just offshore of Jamaica after this afternoon. It's probably at peak intensity now, Even if it starts to weaken a little before landfall, it will be far too little, far too late. 

On satellite, it looks like a classic, intense hurricane. Besides the circular buzzsaw core, it's got a tiny little eye, surrounded by lightning flashes and a huge spray of clouds billowing far to the east of the center. That's the storm's outflow, which is contributing to torrential rains in Haiti, Dominican Republic and elsewhere. 

This will be by far the worst hurricane Jamaica has ever experienced. And it will also be a huge nightmare for Cuba, too. The southeast Bahamas are still seriously under the gun, too. 

QUIET SEASON UNTIL NOW

The average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 names storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

This year, including Melissa there have been 14 named storms, five hurricanes, three of them category 5. Only 2005 had that many or more Category 5 hurricanes, which have winds of at least 157 mph. 

Until Melissa, you'd never know it's been such an active season. Except for relatively weak Tropical Storm Chantal, which hit the Carolinas in July, none have hit the United States. This will be the first year since 2015 with no U.S. hurricane landfalls, unless there's some sort of November surprise.

Melissa will miss the United States. And Melissa is the first hurricane to directly strike land while close to its full fury.  So until now, this year was "one of the most benign hurricane seasons in a long time."

EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT

Melissa grew from a tropical storm to a major hurricane in almost a blink of an eye. That's been the pattern this year. 

As CNN states

"Melissa isn't just another major hurricane. It's the latest in a string of Atlantic storms that have exploded in strength at breakneck speed.

Melissa grew from a 70 mph tropical storm Saturday to a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane by early Sunday. This 70 mph wind speed increase in only 24 hours is double the criteria storms need to meet in out to qualify as rapid intensifiers. 

This type of explosive strengthening used to rare, but is happening more often as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution. "

Four of the five Atlantic hurricanes in 2025 have undergone extremely rapid intensifications: Erin, Gabrielle, Humberto and Melissa. 

Climate change does seem to be affecting how many particularly strong hurricanes there are out there. As Jeff Masters at Yale Climate Connections writes:

"Numerous studies over the past 20 years have found that hurricane strength storms are not becoming more numerous globally, but the fraction of such storms that reach Category 4 or 5 strength is growing and is expected to keep growing, so the world is seeing more pop these intense tropical cyclones, which tend to be the most deadly and dangerous ones."

We're increasingly going to have disasters like this. It's already been a big problem in the past decade. Harvey in 2017, Michael in 2018, Ida in 2021, Beryl, Helene and Milton last year. It's going on and on and going to get worse. 

In other words, we're going to have quite a lot of Jamaica calamities in the coming years.