Snow To Miss All But Far Southern Vermont Today, But Statewide Snow Friday?

Still a bit of a canyon in the snow on the trip from my
front door to the truck in St. Albans, Vermont. Not
much snow melted over the past couple days.
Southern Vermont to get a little more snow later
today, and a few inches of snow looks likely
Friday and Friday night. 

 Yesterday afternoon, some clarity finally came into the forecast, and we learned that most of Vermont will avoid the snow today after all. 

The computer models finally got their act together and decided a cold front would push any snow coming in from the west more to the south. Only far southern Vermont is under the gun for snow today. 

However, there's a high chance of plowable snow Friday and Friday night. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY

The southernmost two counties of Vermont are under a winter weather advisory late this afternoon and tonight. So is central New York and the western half of Massachusetts.  As has so often been the case this winter, the snow will hit down there just as this afternoon's commute home gets under way. 

In the valley floors around Bennington, Shaftesbury in the west, and near Brattleboro in the east, it might start out mixed with rain or sleet as temperatures will be a little above freezing as the precipitation gets under way. 

In part because of the mix, and the warm temperatures, accumulation won't be huge, maybe 1.5 to 3.5 inches in Bennington and Windham counties. A little light snow might make it as far north as about Route 4 this evening, but that's about it. 

The rest of Vermont will have a pretty nice day.  Fog, low clouds and haze were mixing out to reveal blue skies this morning. High clouds will dim  and maybe blot out the sun this afternoon in northern areas as as that disturbance heads toward southern Vermont. The northern half of the state will also be cooler than yesterday. But highs in the 26 to 33 degree range aren't bad!

THURSDAY

Looks great! Sunny, with highs in the 30s to near 40 in southern valleys. The Champlain Valley will actually be the chilliest part of the state instead of one of the warmest, like it usually is.

When the lake is frozen, it's even easier for a shallow layer of cooler air hugging the ground to slip southward from Quebec into the Champlain Valley.. So highs there will only be in the low 30s, while nearby hillsides above that shallow cold air flirt with 40 degree in spots.  

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT

This looks like the moment that will cheer Vermont snow lovers. One storm will head up from the central Plains to the Great Lakes where it will fade in favor of a new one forming just south of New England. The new storm will then head eastward out to sea.

We in Vermont look like we'll be in between the two storms. That'll put us into a position to get a good but brief thump of fairly heavy snow Friday afternoon or evening, followed by a long period of light snow lasting through much of Saturday. 

Early guesses give us four, five, maybe six inches of snow out of this. It won't be big storm, but it will probably mean most of Vermont will end the week with a slight net gain of snow cover,  despite some thawing we've had.

I'll have more details on this storm tomorrow.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

The Northeast looks like it will have a close miss early next week. A "bomb" nor'easter looks like it wants to form a little off the coast of North Carolina Sunday night. This thin will really turn into an absolute monster of a storm by Monday southeast of New England.

As it looks now, it'll probably cause some gales over Cape Cod and the islands.  We're lucky this thing will stay well offshore instead of hugging the New England coast.  If this nor'easter were to come right up into New England, there would be a blizzard with lots of coastal damage. 

We'll keep an eye on that nor'easter in case it wants to surprise us, but so far I think we're safe. 

Some really dramatic weather is hitting much of the U.S. I'll have a report on that here later today. For us in Vermont, it looks like we'll just keep being blissful bystanders.

 The weather pattern looks like it will stay active for us, with several small to medium sized storms possible through the first week of March. As it looks now, it seems like it might be cold enough so that most of what we get from those storms would be snow

Winter ain't over yet!