Storm Chasers Injured In Crash; Other Chases More Dangerous Than Tornadoes.

An overturned KFOR storm chase vehicle last week
in Oklahoma after being hit by another storm
chaser that blew through a stop sign

You'd think the biggest danger to all those storm chasers hunting tornadoes in the spring and early summer are the twisters themselves. 

It turns out the greater danger is other chasers.

We're getting into storm chasing season, where hordes of people take to the open roads of the Plains, Midwest and South to study, photograph and video tornadoes for fun and profit.

And sometimes science, but mostly for fun and profit. The peak of tornado and twister chasing season is April, May and June. 

The fatigue of driving long distances to find tornadoes, and the act of staring at the storm instead of the road makes chasing tornadoes scarier than the actually twister.

We've already had an example of this. Last week when two storm chasers for KFOR, now as the 4Warn Storm Team were injured when an amateur storm chaser reported blew through a stop sign and hit the KFOR vehicle. 

The KFOR chasers, Connor Tune and Blaze Edwards were treated at a local hospital and released later that night.  .

The driver of the car allegedly ran the stop sign was also injured and held at a hospital overnight for observations but had been expected to be released from a hospital the next dah. 

The two 4Warn Storm Team chasers are experienced, having chased storms since 2009.

Some storm chasers have died in traffic accidents. In 2022, four storm chasers died in vehicle crashes within two weeks.

"Nature isn't the only threat. Storm chasers spend long hours on the road traveling from state to state like long-haul truckers, inviting fatigue. When they catch up to the storms, they can often keep their eyes on the skies instead of the road, sometimes with deadly consequences," CBS reported at the time of the 2022 deaths.

In 2017 three people died in Texas when two vehicles containing storm chasers collided, Two died in one vehicle a third died in the other vehicle. The three had been chasing a tornado at the time. 

If anything, storm chasers are now more distracted as the drive toward storms. Unlike a decade or two ago, chasers now have computer screens in their vehicles they consult for up date weather information. If you get a tired guy looking at the sky and his computer screen, there's not much bandwidth left in his brain to pay attention to the road.

Most people advise two people in each storm chase vehicle. One to monitor the radar screen and the clouds outside, the other to concentrate on driving. 

Another thing I've long been worried about is storm chase traffic jams. Storm chasing has really taken off in popularity. The ability to forecast particularly impressive or photogenic tornadoes and storms has also increased. 

That has resulted in sometimes hundreds of chasers convening on one narrow road. That's fine if the tornado continues going on its projected path. But what if it suddenly switches gears and heads toward all those people on the road.

If it were just a couple of cars, the chasers could just scoot back into their vehicle and race away. But dozens of vehicles create a traffic jam that would slow things down so much that the tornado would hit the collection of scrambling storm chasers. The results could be very deadly. 

 

 

 

 

Saturday Morning In Vermont: Snow Showers Harass, Then Much Bigger, Windy Storm Looms

There wasn't much snow in most places across Vermont last
night, along Route 108 in Stowe, it looks like a few
inches accumulated and it was still snowing as of 9:40 a.m

From what I can tell, snowfall across most of Vermont was pretty paltry overnight. 

It looks like the Champlain Valley got next to nothing. There was a trace in Burlington and here in St. Albans we received 0.2 inches.  

I'm on my fainting couch now wondering how I can possibly dig out from that! Oh, never mind, the sun peeking through the clouds is taking care of that. 

The fainting couch is just some PTSD, the Pi Day Blizzard of 2017 was just wrapping up on this date. On that occasion, I had 30 inches of snow to shovel. 

Anyway, no repeat of the Pi Day Blizzard seems to be looming. Traffic camera images suggest a lot of places outside the Champlain Valley did manage an inch or two. Some of the higher elevations look like they probably got more.

Snow will continue to harass us the rest of today, but don't worry, we'll survive. The mountains will probably pick up an additional couple inches. Some of the snow showers might increase in intensity for awhile this afternoon and evening over the central and  northern Green Mountains and in the Northeast Kingdom.

BIG STORM

The major story is the enormous windbag of a storm developing in the middle of the U.S. Some of the worst impacts will be in upper Midwest In Minnesota and Wisconsin, where up to two feet of snow might fall with this thing.  

The storm's powerful cold front will trigger severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, South and eventually the East Coast south of New England. There will probably be some tornadoes in the mix, but the main threat from the thunderstorms along the cold front will be widespread damaging winds.

For us in Vermont, we get to enjoy strong winds, a brief spurt of very warm air for this time of year and a quick blast of rain.

Strong south winds will begin to blow overnight Sunday and continue through most of the day Monday ahead of the storm's solid cold front. Meteorologists are still trying to get a handle on how windy it will get and where the worst gusts will blast.

How strong the winds get depends in part on whether a large batch of rain comes through during the day Monday. That might happen, or the precipitation might hold off until the big cold front hits in the evening. I imagine the National Weather Service might eventually issue some wind advisories or even possibly high wind warnings for Monday. We shall see!

We'll get more clarity on those winds tomorrow and we will forward that along.

Temperatures should get into the low 60s amid the gusty south winds on Monday. Those won't be record highs because Monday is the anniversary of a crazy 1990 hot spell that brought temperatures to 78 degrees in Burlington. 

We should get some pretty good downpours just ahead and along the cold front Monday evening.  Fortunately,  most of the ice has been flushed out of the rivers so we're good there. At this point, I'd say we're at risk for minor flooding here and there. 

It will turn sharply colder overnight Monday and all that water will freeze up.  We can expect some snow showers, too, but they won't amount to much. Tuesday looks quite windy and cold as the storm moves off into Canada.  

Florida Drought Has Water Supplies Drying Up ,Crops Wilting, Fires Burning

All of Florida is in a drought. The red shading represents
extreme drought. The dry weather is intensifying

We often think of Florida as humid and wet. But the Sunshine State has dry seasons, and this one is dangerously parched. 

Water restrictions are being put in place, farmers are fretting about crops and wildfires are harassing the state.

According to U.S. Drought Monitor, all of Florida is in drought. Northern and southern parts of the sate are in extreme drought while central Florida is in moderate to severe drought. 

The drought trend is worsening. Less than half of Florida was in extreme drought back in mid-February. Now, about three quarters of the state is in extreme drought. The drought is said to be the worst in a quarter century. 

Water conservation measures are ramping up. 

WGCU in southwest Florida reported:  

"The Southwest Florida Water Management District, which covers an eclectic area surrounding Tampa Bay, declared a "Modified Phase II 'Severe' Waters Shortage in January. '

That means lawn watering is down to one day a week in the district and only between midnight to 8 am or 6 p.m. to midnight.  

Then it got worse as rainfall kept falling short. 

Per Newsweek: 

"Critically low waters are "prompting Tampa Bay Water to issue an urgent call for conservation to help stretch supplies through the region's driest months. The utility says water from rivers typically provides more than 40 percent of the area's drinking water but ongoing drought had rendered those sources unusable. 

With temperatures rising and spring vegetation demands increasing, officials warm that without aggressive conservation, including limiting showers to find minutes, deeper restrictions could soon follow."

'We're heading into the driest months of the year when it only will get hotter and drier, so now is the time to save and get to those Florida summer rains, ' Tampa Bay Water public communications manager Brandon Moore told Newsweek."

March through May are usually the driest months of the year in Florida. The storm track moves north of Florida in the spring, so rains from passing fronts are less likely to affect the Sunshine State much. Once we get past Memorial Day or so, almost daily summer thunderstorms can help replenish low water. 

Farmers are struggling with the drought as the spring planting season gets under way. In addition to the drought, winter crops were decimated by repeated freezes. 

Wildfires have been harassing Florida, too. Extremely dry conditions are of course fueling them. But dead vegetation from the winter freezes isn't exactly helping. 

Some rain is headed toward Florida over the next week, but it won't be nearly enough to erase the drought. 

Friday Vermont Forecast. Some Snow Later Today Through Saturday; Large, Windy Storm Monday

We're back to the snowfall prediction maps from the 
National Weather Service. Through tomorrow,
the valleys should generally get about two inche
of snow, maybe a little less in spots, The Green
Mountains and southern Adirondacks, and
New Hampshire's White Mountains should
do great, with perhaps 4 to 7 inches. 

We watched the temperatures yesterday fall down through the 30s, and for many of us, it was below freezing by late afternoon or evening. 

This was nothing unusual for mid March, but it was a reality check after the record warm temperatures earlier in the week. 

Burlington did end up tying the record high for the date at 63 degrees yesterday. That came just after midnight very early in the day before a cold front arrived. 

Some of us got a dusting of snow last evening to remind us what time of year it is. We were still getting flurries here in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning. 

Ahead, we have one small storm first, and then one very large storm to deal with here in Vermont. Aside for a brief excursion into balmy weather Monday, it's going to be relatively wintry for awhile. 

I know, I know, but it's only March. Spring will get here eventually. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY/SATURDAY

We've got our small storm to deal with first. It's coming in from the west and will pester us from this afternoon through much of tomorrow. 

This one will be mostly snow. But the good news for those of you who are tired of snow is accumulations should be pretty limited in the valleys. The Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys should only see 0.5 to 2 inches. Even so, the wet snow could come briefly heavily this evening, so watch it on the roads. 

The mountains look to get much more, perhaps four to as many as eight inches. That will refresh ski resort slopes a bit after our huge thaw. There is a winter weather advisory from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon in the southern and central Green Mountains.  

High temperatures both today and tomorrow will be in the 30s, so not far from normal for this time of year. That means the snow will mostly be on the wet side. They call this kind of snow sugar snow under the belief it adds moisture for the maple trees to produce more sap.

We should also have gusty winds at time as this storm passes through. 

BIG STORM

NOAA forecast map for Monday shows a powerful
storm centered over Michigan. This storm will 
give us a quick squirt of warm air and rain
Monday, followed by sharply colder air
We should also have a lot of wind with this storm.

The next storm will stir up a huge amount of trouble in the eastern half of the nation.  It'll start developing in the central Plains Saturday night, get to about Iowa Saturday night and the heat up into the central Great Lakes, strengthening all the while. 

It'll be a powerhouse with widespread high winds from the eastern Rockies to the East Coast. The system cause another severe storm and tornado risk in the Midwest Sunday and in the southeast Monday. A blizzard will unfold north and west of the storm track.

For us in Vermont, the storm will mean a brief period of mixed precipitation, a lot of wind, a brief zoom of temperatures up to 60 degrees or so Monday, along with rain, then an abrupt, sharp drop in temperature down to winter levels again

If we have any mixed precipitation it would be fairly light and occur Sunday night, at least the way it looks now. South winds would really ramp up Sunday night, too.

That warm air will engulf us Monday, but be short-lived as a powerful cold front comes in from the west. We're unsure on the timing of that front, but early guesses place it in Vermont early Monday evening, give or take.

That would leave us with temperatures rapidly crashing to below freezing, a quick changeover to snow showers, and strong winds from the north.

As always, we'll update this one as we get closer to the event. 

Montreal, Quebec City Endured Ugly Ice Storm While Warm Thaw Continued South Of The Border

While rather warm temperatures continued Wednesday
south of the border, Montreal and other areas of 
Quebec endured a day and evening long ice storm.

While places south of the border were basking in relative warmth Wednesday, Quebec was enduring an ice storm. 

Temperatures remained solidly below freezing in Montreal as freezing rain fell all day into the night. 

Even toward midnight, when temperatures in northwestern Vermont soared into the low 60s, Montreal remained stubbornly at 30 degrees, or minus 1 Celsius.

The result in Quebec was widespread travel trouble, closed schools and businesses and power outages.  Among the schools closes were Concordia and McGill universities. 

As of around 9:15 a.m. Thursday more than 212,000 homes and businesses were still without power in Quebec. The number of outages was down to about 65,000 by 4 p.m. today. 

Dozens of flights were canceled in Montreal and Quebec City. 

A similar but worse ice storm hit in April 2023. While trees collapsed under the weight of ice and power flickered out throughout Montreal and other areas of Quebec, areas just south of the Canadian border had thunderstorms and temperatures in the 40s on that occasion. 

So that's twice in three years northern Vermont just barely dodged very, very icy bullets  

One Widespread, Ominous U.S. Heat Wave Fades, Another, Much Hotter One Threatens West

The western U.S. is gearing up for what is expected to
be never-before-seen March heat over the next
week to 10 days. This will exacerbate drought and
water shortages in the region. After record heat
in the East, it will cool down some. 

Temperatures are cooling down today in the Midwest and East after a remarkable March heat wave that set hundreds of new record highs from the Plains States all the way to the East Coast. 

Now, meteorologists are already talking about another heat wave set to begin in the western U.S. That heat wave might well be easily one of the most extreme out-of-season heat waves ever seen. 

More on that in a minute. 

Climate change has turned the normal "false springs" of thawing weather and warm early season sunshine into something a little worrying. . 

Already this year. much of the western United States had by far their warmest winter on record. Even in the colder eastern U.S., brief warm spells set records. 

Now, we had the heat this week. Hundreds of cities saw record highs broken, over roughly half the United States. The record heat extended over a remarkably large area, from Oklahoma and Texas, through the South and Midwest and along the entire East Coast. 

Temperatures reached to near 90 in the Southeast, with one report as far north as Virginia 

Several places broke records for warmest for so early in the season.  Those include New York City (80 degrees), Georgetown, Delaware, (83 degrees), Baltimore, Maryland (85 degrees) and Burlington, Vermont (73). 

Some records were broken by wide margins. Up in Millinocket, Maine, it got to 70 degrees, beating the old record high for the date of 54 degrees. 

The unseasonable warmth set the conditions for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms in the Midwest. Abrupt thawing in northern New York and in Vermont created ice jams on rivers which caused some flooding. 

The expansive heat wave of the past week has ensured this was the warmest start to March on record for the U.S. 

A shift in the weather pattern is now bringing cooler air into the eastern half of the U.S., but is setting the stage for a dangerous, way-before-its-time heat wave out west.

WESTERN HEAT 

The expected heat wave in the West will be even stronger and more dangerous than the one now ending in the East

Per the Washington Post:

"There are many potential firsts for March on the horizon: It could reach 100 degrees in Los Angeles next week, after record-breaking 95 degree heat on Thursday and Friday. 

In Phoenix next week, temperatures could exceed 100 degrees several times. It could also reach the century mark in Las Vegas."

Phoenix could actually reach 105 degrees next week, which looks plausible given the expected intensity of the heat dome. If that happens, not only would Phoenix break its record for hottest day in March, it would tie April's  hottest recorded temperatures. 

 Record highs for the entire month of March could fall in Salt Lake City, Denver, Reno and other western cities. It's fairly rare to break a monthly record. It's especially rare to set one in mid-March, as temperatures are obviously normally warmer at the end of the month. 

This is insane. 

The impending heat wave is raising alarms about drought and water shortages this summer. Much of the reason is already in drought. The snowpack in the mountains is paltry, as what little snow that fell often melted.

Now this heat wave will melt snow at very high elevations, the way heat waves do in June.  That would leave little runoff to keep rivers running and reservoirs with at least some water for the summer. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this heat episode contributes to serious water shortages this summer.

Utah State Climatologist Jon Meyer said the state's snowpack is at record low levels and Utah's reservoirs are only at about 40 percent capacity.  "All this means we are likely to see some very tangible water supply cuts and conservation efforts by the state this year," Meyer told the Washington Post. 

The early heat waves make me worried about summertime. We've had our share of record heat during the summer in our climate change regime. Some of it has been unprecedented heat in recent years.

Will this be the summer when things really get out of control?

 

False Spring Is Over In Vermont After A Weird Wednesday, Welcome Back To Winter. And March Winds

The loss of snow uncovered this messy look in one of my
perennial gardens, but it's too muddy to clean  up yet.
And now the weather will be too stormy and wintry
over the next week to do anything about it.
Patience is a virtue during early spring in Vermont

It's kind of windy and chilly out there this morning, and gray, with a few showers around. False spring is definitely over. 

Before we get into what's happening next, we have to talk about how weird yesterday's temperature were. 

In the morning, it took time for northern areas to warm up after that intrusion of chilly air that actually caused an ice storm up in southern Quebec  

At 9 a.m. it was 49 degrees in Rutland, with thunderstorms approaching. A short distance away in Middlebury it was just 32 degrees. 

As we went through the day Wednesday, the temperature ranges expanded. At 1 p.m., readings ranged from 36 degrees in Highgate to 63 in Bennington. Meanwhile, freezing rain continued all day up in Montreal. 

Then it got really weird.

 Last night, a tongue of very warm air was able to head up through western Vermont. Highs reached 69 in Bennington and 63 degrees in Burlington after dark. .

The warm air lingered in Vermont until a little after midnight. It was still 63 degrees in Burlington at about 1 a.m., which means even though today is chilly, we still tied the record high for the date. Meanwhile, while it was in the 60s across northern Vermont very early this morning,  it was still just 30 degrees with lingering freezing rain not so far away in Montreal. 

The warm air never really made it into eastern Vermont, either. It mostly stayed in the 40s there.

Rivers this morning are still running high after all that snowmelt and rain. Though the rain was mostly a little less than expected, which is good.  There could be some low lying roads under water today. If you see that, don't drive through it. Please turn around and find another way around. Nobody needs to be fishing you out of an inundated car today. There's enough problems out there as it is.

BACK TO REALITY

At 4 a.m. today in Bennington, it was still 65 degrees. By 9 a.m., it was 36 degrees and snowing.  Except for a brief warm excursion we might see on Monday, winter weather is back and will prevail for more than a week. 

It won't be the intense below zero cold we saw in early February. It's getting  late in the season for that. But spring weather can't last forever this time of year!  

Expect a lot of breezy to windy weather, too. The March reputation for wind is no myth. The burgeoning forces of spring compete with the lingering claws of winter, and that creates a lot of tight temperature contrasts and storms. 

Hence winds.

An unbelievably huge area of the northern United States was under a high wind warning this morning. Those high wind warnings extended from Washington State all the way to Minnesota and Iowa. Slightly lower level wind advisories ran further east into Pennsylvania and New York. 

For us in Vermont, we won't get the worst of the winds, but you'll feel the chill from the gusts those winds create. Temperatures with those gusty winds should stay in the 30s today. 

THE NEXT STORM

A storm coming in from the west is set to give us a mostly light snowfall Friday night into Saturday. Low elevations will get near to a little above freezing during this episode, so a lot of valleys might only get an inch of snow, or even a bit less. The Green Mountain chain can expect a few inches. 

It'll be kind of windy from the south ahead of the storm Friday and kind of windy from the west after th storm Saturday. 

A BIGGER STORM

A much larger storm is due Sunday and Monday. It's still forecast to develop in the central Plains Sunday and get stronger fast as it eventually moves northward through the eastern Great Lakes. 

For us, the early guess is some snow will develop Sunday then turn into a mix and then rain overnight Sunday. Specifics on ice, how much and when aren't quite available yet.

This storm is, however, going to be a windbag and another opportunity to have wild swings in temperatures. Strong south winds look like they'll boost us at least into the 50s and maybe low 60s amid the rain showers Monday.

Then, strong north winds will plunge us into the 20s by Tuesday, with some snow showers. 

I'll have more specifics on this storm in a couple days, as it could be a bit of a humdinger. 

Another Deadly Spate Of Tornadoes In Midwest

Large tornado in Kankakee, Illinois yesterday. The same
supercell that produced this twister created additional
ones in Indiana, leading to two deaths. Photo via
Facebook, Storm Chaser Adam Lucio

 Less than a week after deadly tornadoes struck Michigan, more dangerous twisters swept through Illinois and Indiana last night, killing at least two people. 

The worst of it was in Kankakee County in Illinois and adjacent areas of Indiana. Two people have been confirmed dead in Lake Village, Indiana, where several other people were seriously hurt. 

As ABC 7 in Chicago reported, Lake City Fire Department Chief Rob Churchill said:"Total devastation, there were houses that were collapsed. There werre people trapped in  houses. There is livestock loose. Pretty much anything that you have seen before on newscast and on videos

He said the tornado trampled through 3.5 miles of town. Four firefighters and their own homes badly damaged. 

In Kankakee County, Illinois, nobody was killed by the tornado but nine were injured. Drone video from Kankakee showed houses completely leveled and trees turned into poles, completely stripped of any branches. 

The supercell also created havoc outside the path of the tornado. People in Kankakee said the hail was as big as their hands. One photo taken in the area showed a five to six inch diameter hailstone, which might end up establishing a record for largest hailstone on record for the state of Illinois.

Elsewhere, torrents of rain and hail hit parts of Michigan. In Grand Rapids. the hail fell so heavily that it clogged storm drains, leading to flooding.  Video showed vehicles in water at least up to the windows, with clumps of hail floating on the water. 

Other video from Grand Rapids show large piles of hail left over after being washed down hills. 

Oklahoma City and surrounding towns were under a tornado warning last evening. It's unclear if any tornadoes touched down, but there was wind damage in the metro area. 

Overall, there were 23 reports of tornadoes across the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. 

The Washington Post is reporting that one reason for the rough start of the 2026 tornado season ins a marine heat wave in the Gulf of Mexico.

Water there has become much warmer than normal. Because the water is so warm, humid southerly winds coming off the Gulf carry more heat and moisture than they usually do. Heat and humidity are key ingredients for a tornado outbreak.

If any of the ingredients are stronger than usual, the severe storms and tornadoes can also become stronger.  

The bad weather had moved east by today. This afternoon, tornado watches are in effect for parts of Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, and in eastern Texas and western Louisiana. 

After that, severe weather looks like it will become more subdues. There is a threat of some strong storms and maybe a few tornadoes in the South Sunday, but that's about it for the next week or so. 

The warmer Gulf waters, brought on by climate change,  have probably in recent years increased the severity of some severe weather outbreaks. That water has also worsened some hurricanes. 

Ice Jams, Flood Risk, Record Heat, Freezing Rain, Rain, Snow, Wind, Storms. Vermont March Weather Rolls On

Another view of an ice jam backing up water along the 
Missisquoi River in Enosburg Tuesday. The ice
jam closed Boston Post Road near Route 105.
Vermont is still  under a flood watch through
tomorrow

Mark Twain once said, "In the spring, I have counted 136 different kinds of weather inside of 24  hours."

He was referring to New England when he said it. I'd guess he might have been in Vermont in March when he came up with that gem. 

A day after we had a hottest for so early in the season warm spell in the Green Mountain State. temperatures this morning were in the low to mid 30s. 

As forecast, there were a couple drops of freezing rain in extreme northwest Vermont.  We weren't expecting much and there was even less freezing rain than the trifle we thought we'd get.

Before we move on, we should gaze back at the record highs, and how we are re-writing weather records in the age of climate change. March records have really shifted. Before 1990, Burlington had never reached 70 degrees earlier in the season than March 20.

Now with yesterday's 73 degrees - the warmest for so early in the season - it's been in the 70s eight times on or before March 20 since 1990. Six of those occasions have been since 2012.  

This isn't just a Vermont thing. Hundreds of record highs were set over the past few days in the central and eastern U.S. New York City reached 80 degrees, the earliest on record it's been that warm there.

Another record heat wave is set to begin next week in the western U.S. 

The switch to hot weather out West means we in Vermont will probably not be seeing more record high temperatures for awhile. 

A southward dip in the jet stream over eastern North America will keep colder weather and storminess in our neck of the woods for next couple of weeks. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

Eventually - later this morning or early this afternoon - the wind should swing back from a southerly direction, and that will pump temperatures back up in  to the 50s for most of us west of the Green Mountains. It'll probably stay in the mid and upper 40s east of the Greens. 

The good news is forecasters have cut back on the amount of rain we should expect between now and tomorrow morning. Don't celebrate too much, since we should still see enough rain, combined with snow melt and the last of the ice jams to keep us under a risk of flooding.  

The Otter Creek in Center Rutland is forecast to go into minor flood stage tomorrow. Other Vermont rivers are expected to get close to flood stage. And remember, these river level forecasts are iffy. Just a little extra rain, or a little extra snowmelt can make a big difference in how high the water gets.\

We should see some scattered showers, maybe even an isolated rumble of thunder here and there today. Much of the time should be dry, especially south and east. The rain should fill in to become more widespread later this afternoon and during the first half of tonight. 

THURSDAY

The sharp cold front will come in from the west mostly before dawn tomorrow, and that will send us back into winter. Temperatures will stay steady near the freezing point, or slowly fall during the day. Gusty winds will make it feel colder. At least the cold will shut off the snow melt and end the threat of flooding.

We could see some snow showers, but accumulations won't be anything to really worry about.

FRIDAY SATURDAY

A relatively small storm should come in from the west. We could get a couple inches of wet snow out of this later Friday into Saturday morning  By March, temperatures can be marginal between rain and snow. We'll want to take a closer look at this when we get closer. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

A larger storm is looming for the end of the weekend and start of next week.  This far ahead, it's hard to tell exactly what that means for us. For now, meteorologists are going with a period of snow and mixed precipitation Sunday, followed by a brief squirt of warm, windy, showery weather Monday, followed cold north winds and some snow Monday night and Tuesday. 

Since that storm is several days away, don't be surprised if the forecast for how it plays out changes big time. 

The cold wave next week looks pretty sharp and intense, even if it does't last all that long.  But we are possibly looking at a couple days with highs in the 20s and lows in the single numbers. Our false spring will definitely be over by then! 

After that cold wave, as usual, the weather forecast gets  really uncertain. But that's OK, we have more than enough on our plate for now. 

  

Tuesday Evening Vermont Weather Update: Shockingly Warm Today, Still Expected Yo-Yo Temperatures Now Through Thursday

Henry the Weather Dog on Tuesday got to do something
he hasn't really been able to do since October: Bask in the
warm sun. You can sort of see him smiling there
he was so happy 

The warmth in Vermont and surrounding areas really over-performed today, didn't it? 

It felt almost like summer. Henry the Weather Dog was able to bask in the warm sun for the first time since October. He was one happy camper!

I think some compressional warming ahead of the cold front that entered northern Vermont this afternoon helped boost the temperatures. The front, as it pushed southward, sort of squeezed the air, i.e. compressing it. When air compresses it tends to warm up. 

Whatever caused it, things were incredibly balmy.  Burlington reached 73 degrees, according to preliminary data. That  shatters the previous record high of 63 set in 2002. It's also the hottest temperature for so early in the season. Those "so early" or "so late" in the season record highs are especially hard to achieve. But Burlington managed it today. 

Other record highs include 63 degrees in Plattsburgh, NY; 71 degrees (wow!) in St. Johnsbury (old record was 64 in 2016);  and 67 in Montpelier, old record 60 in 2016). 

 Rutland and Springfield got up to at least 70 degrees, Bennington was at least 73 degrees. So much for my prediction this morning that there was just a chance a place or two in Vermont might reach 70.  Instead it was pretty widespread. 

The temperatures I listed are not final figures, so they might be updated later.  

COLDER AIR

I mentioned the cold front. Once it arrives it means business. Highgate was one of the first Vermont towns to see the cold front. They got up to 66 degrees at around 1:30 and were down to 51 buy 5 p.m. Burlington dropped ten degrees to 59 in the hour ending at 5 p.m. 

In most of central and northern Vermont, temperatures will bottom out in the 30s, and it'll get below freezing in some spots north of Route 2.  The northern Champlain Valley has the best shot at going below freezing. 

A winter weather advisory is still in effect for Grand Isle County late tonight and tomorrow morning for the risk of light freezing rain.  There could be some icy spots on the roads tomorrow morning there. And perhaps elsewhere in far northern Vermont. 

At least Vermont will miss out on the worst of this ice storm. Far northwest New York, southern Quebec from Ottawa to Montreal to Sherbrooke, northern and Central Maine and even northern Michigan. 

 WEDNESDAY

A large ice jam was still holding firm along the Missisquoi
River in Enosburg as of late this morning. 
Ice jams and regular flooding are a threat through
Thursday with more snow melt and expected rain. 

It does look like our storm will go by to our northwest, which means winds should shift to southerly during the day tomorrow. 

Highs should get into the 50s in western Vermont, maybe even low 60s southwest. The warmer air will have a bit of a harder time getting into eastern Vermont, but it will be above freezing. 

It probably won't rain much during the day except in the northwest. But today's warmth, lingering ice jams, snow melt and that rain will keep the risk of flooding going into Thursday. 

I noticed late this morning a large ice jam was holding pretty firm on the Missisquoi River in Enosburg , and it was causing minor flooding. 

Thursday will turn sharply colder and windy. And an active weather pattern will continue afterward. I'll have much more on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

 

Montpelier, Vermont Has Systems To Prevent Ice Jams

The ice jam that caused the devastating flood in downtown
Montpelier in 1992 The city has now created measures
to prevent this from happening again

Ice jams are cropping up in Vermont and surrounding areas of the North Country, threatening abrupt floods as the ice dams up rivers swollen by melting snow. 

Montpelier, Vermont has a rough history with ice jams. In 1992, an ice jam formed along the Winooski River, which runs through the city. Water backed up and flooded virtually all of downtown Montpelier causing millions of dollars in damage.

This is easily one of the most dangerous ice jam seasons in years. A particularly cold winter allowed ice to form thick, strong sheets over the rivers. 

An abrupt and strong March thaw is rapidly melting the snow. That in turn is swelling the rivers and breaking up the ice.  A slower, more gradual thaw would have weakened the river ice, reducing the chances big chunks would pile up against obstacles to form dams.

But here we are. Montpelier, though, has a bunch of ice jam prevention plans and gizmos set up to avoid a repeat of 1992. Or a repeat of the summer of 2023 for that matter, when another flood trashed downtown Montpelier.

This all started in January, as it has every year since 2013 in Montpelier. Since the beginning of the year, the city has discharged treated wastewater into the Winooski River at three locations. That water is around 42 degrees, so it weakens ice in the river and creates channels where water a freely flow, as WPTZ reports. 

=The city has deployed a long-reach excavator to help move ice downstream if it starts jamming up in Montpelier, said Kurt Motyka, the city's public works director. 

So far, there are no reports of ice jam trouble in or near Montpelier during this warm spell. Other areas as of early this afternoon still have ice jams. I was up in Enosburg late this afternoon and, if anything, the ice jam near Boston Post Road is getting a little worse. 

A lot more ice chunks were coming down from upstream and adding to the jam. The jam started moving while I was there, but then stalled again after moving about 100 yards downstream. These things are unpredictable and things change near ice jams in an instant. 

Which is why Montpelier has invested so much in battling ice jams. 

Flood Watch, Ice, Rain And Temperature Gyrations Galore In Vermont

An ice jam seen here along the Great 
Chazy River in Moores, New York
badly damaging a campground
Vermont continues to be at risk
for ice jams and flooding, too.

It's going to be almost impossible to write this post without being confusing as temperatures and weather conditions are going to be all over the place over the next day or two. 

Almost literally wait a minute and it will change in some places.

The bottom line is there is a flood watch through Thursday afternoon. And our spring weather will fade over the next couple days amid rain, and even freezing rain. Then a little snow to top if off. Then more storms through next Monday. 

I told you it was complicated. 

YESTERDAY

Temperatures did over-perform somewhat Monday, just as I expected. Most forecasters predicted highs Monday to get up to around 60 degrees. Instead, most places got into the 60s. Rutland reached 68 degrees.

It was 65 degrees in Burlington, which made Monday the warmest day since October 20. Ice jams are still out there, the snow is still melting, so the flood watch continues today, tomorrow and into Thursday.   

TODAY

The warmth party will start to end north of Route 2 this afternoon. That weird cold front is north of Montreal and heading steadily south, driven by another frigid high pressure over northern Quebec. If you remember, we went through the same thing last week. 

This time, today's temperatures will zoom upward this morning, and then get cut off at the pass by the low level cold air coming south. It'll be most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley and some areas near the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom. In those areas, temperatures will fall, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into tonight. 

A couple light showers might accompany the cold front in the north. 

In central and southern Vermont the cold front won't be noticeable until tonight, and not to the extent you'll see in the north. Highs will get well into the 60s today. A spot 70 degree reading is entirely out the question.

TONIGHT:

Here's where things get complicated. It looks like it will cool off enough in far northern Vermont where we will probably end up with some freezing rain, especially in the northern Champlain Valley. That's a real cold slap to end our beautiful "false spring"

So far, it doesn't look like much ice will accumulate. But it's tricky, because it's hard to tell how extensive and persistent this thin layer of cold air near the ground will be. That will determine how much ice there is. A winter weather advisory is up for Grand Isle County. That advisory goes from 11 p.m. tonight. It ends at 2 p.m. tomorrow, reflected the uncertainty with the temperatures and the ice. 

Some areas in far northern Vermont might have an icy drive to work tomorrow morning. Which would be a shock if you've been wandering around outdoors in shorts for the past couple of days. 

For now it's wait and see on the potential for ice elsewhere in the north. Stay tuned for updated forecasts later today. 

WEDNESDAY

Expected rainfall now through Thursday. Heaviest rain
is forces in New York. But in Vermont, rain combined
with snow melt will be enough to cause ice jams
and put some rivers into flood stage. 

The thinking for tomorrow is the storm will go by a little to our west, dragging that cold front back as a warm front.  If t
hat happens as forecasters think, then temperatures will rebound into the 50s for most of Vermont. 

This will keep the rain and snow melt going. So far, the flooding in Vermont has been mostly isolated near ice jams. The rain and continued snow melt would expand the flooding to rivers across the state. 

At this point, it doesn't look like a major flood. But as ice jams break up, there could be unpredictable, sudden changes in water levels.  The usual low lying roads will probably get submerged like they often do in the spring. 

Rainfall looks like it will total a half inch to an inch west of the Green Mountains, with the most north. Eastern Vermont should have about a third of an inch south to a half inch north. With the snow melt, that's more than enough to push at least some rivers over their banks.

I'll have more on how extensive the flooding might be in tomorrow morning's report. 

As you can imagine, the weird temperature forecast for the next 24 hours is tricky, so we'll probably see some forecast adjustments. For now this just gives you the best guess on how this will turn out.  Just basically be prepared for temperatures in the low 30s to mid 60s, especially north, now through tomorrow. 

Yes, I know that's not very helpful. But March is almost always a strange weather month.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

The forecast actually gets a little easier by the time we get to Thursday. The storm's final cold front will come through, dropping temperatures and ending the rain as a little snow in some areas. We won't see ,much accumulation 

Another, smaller storm looks likely later Friday and Friday night. That could drop a few inches of snow in some spots, especially the mountains. The snow might be mixed with rain for part of this storm in warmer valleys. 

Then, a larger storm is in the cards toward Sunday and Monday. This one looks like it will come with a fair amount of wind, and worse, changing precipitation types. 

Monday Evening Quick Vermont Update: Flood Watch Issued

Screen grab from a WPTZ report on the big ice
jam in Moretown, Vermont shows a vast jumble of
ice stuck in the river 

 The National Weather Service office in South Burlington decided to pull the trigger this afternoon and issue a flood watch.  

It's in effect for all but the southern two counties of Vermont, mostly because the Albany, New York National Weather Service office covers those areas. 

Northern New York is in the flood watch, too 

It's a long lasting weather alert, in effect now until during the day Thursday. 

For tonight through tomorrow, no rain is expected, but the warm weather will continue to take a toll on river ice. A cool night that got into the low 30s in a lot of places temporarily slowed the melt. Then it got into the 60s most places in Vermont this afternoon, and that's surely breaking up more ice that could lead to more jams.  

There's also plenty of snow left to melt in the mid and high elevations of Vermont 

An ice jam was still in place along the Mad River in Moretown at last report. I bet there's other trouble areas developing this evening after today's warmth. 

Tuesday's highs are tricky because it depends on when a cold front comes through in the north. Temperatures north Route 2 might end up falling through the 50s during the afternoon. Southern Vermont won't be affected by the cold front and might even be warmer than today.

So much cold air could drain into the valleys of northern Vermont, including the northern and possibly central Champlain Valley that there could be some freezing rain early Wednesday. I'll have  more details on this tomorrow, 

Enough rain might fall Wednesday to worsen the risk of flooding across Vermont. Another strong cold front should come through. That'll change the rain to snow before it ends. Also ending is our early hint of spring we're getting now.

Starting Thursday it's back to reality with temperatures staying near or below normal for quite awhile, with frequent chances of snow, maybe mixed with some rain. I'll have more in Tuesday morning's post.

 

Sea Level Rise Is Worse Than Thought, New Research Shows

Sea levels are actually higher than thought because of a 
mismatch in research assumptions. Predictions for the
effects of sea levels due to climate change 
will need to be adjusted. 

Sea level rise, one of the most expensive symptoms of climate change might well be worse than feared, new research shows. 

The problem is that sea levels are already higher than we thought because of mistaken research assumptions. 

According to USA Today:

"The new research, published March 4, in the peer-reviewed British journal Nature, found that more than 90% of the existing sea-level studies use a reference sea level that is lower than the actual sea level along the coast. That means already dire projections about sea level rise might be underestimating the risk." 

Those studies underestimated baseline coastal water heights by an average of about a foot. Researchers studied hundreds of scientific studies and hazard assessments to arrive at this conclusion. The cause, according to the Associated Press, is a mismatch between the way sea and land altitudes are measured. 

Study co-author Philip Minderhoud, a hydrogeology professor at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, said a "methodological blind spot" between the different ways those two things are measured. 

Many studies assume sea levels without waves or currents, when the reality at the water's edge is of oceans constantly roiled bye wind, tides, currents, changing temperatures and things like El Nino, Minderhoud said, as the AP reported. 

 The AP continues:

"Adjusting to a more accurate coastal height baseline means that if seas rise by a little more than 3 feet - as some studies suggest will happen by the end of the century - waters could inundate up to 37%k more land and threaten 77 million to 132 million more people, the study said."

As you can see, this means mitigation plans for future sea level increases are obsolete before they're even needed. 

Some scientists say the study might be exaggerating the problem, but even so, this is just yet another complication as worsening effects of climate change loom. 

Also, more recent sea level studies are taking into account the discrepancy, so chances are future warnings about sea level rise will be more accurate.  

Vermont River Ice Breaking Up Amid Mild Spell, Still Questions About Wednesday

An ice jam on the Mad River in Moretown, Vermont
Sunday. More ice jams are possible on other rivers the
next couple of days amid warm weather. Photo
via Facebook/Patrick Quimby

After the mild temperatures Saturday and continued balmy weather Sunday, at least for the season, the ice on our Vermont rivers is breaking up, sometimes dramatically. 

There were and are some ice jams around the region, and that state of affairs should continue the next few days as the weather stays warm. 

So far, flooding from the ice jams has been pretty minor. 

The worst ones so far is are along the Mad River in Waitsfield and Moretown..  Water behind the jam in Waitsfield rose several feet in minutes. 

The ice also re-routed the Mad River through a parking lot in town. So far, there's been no major damage and the jam is of course being monitored.

At last report, there was another ice jam along the Mad River downstream in Moretown. If the Waitsfield jam breaks abruptly, the added surge of water and ice could cause some flooding in Moretown.

An ice jam broke up along the Missisquoi River around Richford which sent a surge downstream. That flooded and closed the end of Boston Post Road in Enosburg. That spot is a perennial lowland flooding area. 

Also, a mudslide closed part of National Guard Road in South Burlington Saturday, but the road has since reopened.  

Warm weather today and tomorrow will keep thawing the rivers, and more ice jams are a good possibility, which could lead to scattered instances of flooding. Otherwise, the snow is melting rapidly and rivers have risen.  The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield went from 81 inches Friday to 67 inches Sunday, so you can see it's disappearing fast. 

Other than the ice jams, no flooding is expected today and tomorrow, though water levels will be up somewhat. We'll have to watch for at least minor flooding   Wednesday, depending on what a storm does then. More on that in a minute. 

MARCH WARMTH

Temperatures got into the mid-50s in most Vermont valleys Sunday, which was a little above forecast. That makes me wonder if today and tomorrow might get a little warmer than forecast, too. Rather than 50s, I think many valleys might reach the low 60s today. 

 There might be a couple record highs here and there in and near Vermont today and/or tomorrow, but most places will fall short of those records. The record high today in Burlington is 70 degrees, which is higher than most records this time of year. It won't get that warm today.  Burlington has a slim shot of reaching tomorrow's record high of 63 degrees.

Even if there are no record highs, the high temperatures over the next two days are normal for late April, so enjoy it while you can.   

Today will be breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. A warm front passing by to our north was creating showers near and west of Montreal, but the only effect we'll have in Vermont is a few clouds. 

It still looks as if tomorrow might be a couple degrees cooler than today in the north, especially in the northern Champlain Valley, but it will still get into the 50s there. Elsewhere, it looks like more low to even mid 60s, with lighter winds and sunshine. 

Which leads us to what is still our mystery storm for Wednesday

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

The computer models have gotten their act together a little bit more with the projected path of a storm and cold front Wednesday and Thursday. The storm should pass close to or over northwest Vermont

The trouble is there will be a very tight temperature range from one side of the storm to the other. Just to its northwest, it could be cold enough for some freezing rain. Just the storm's southeast, it'll be near 60 degrees.

At this point, it looks like southern Vermont is in for some rain, with only a little snow at the tail end Thursday after the cold front goes through. 

Central and northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley, are still solidly in question mark territory. These areas could still end up experiencing just rain until the very end when there would be a brief changeover to snow before everything ends.

Or, the storm could feature partly or mostly mixed precipitation.  I'm hoping we know more tomorrow. 

The rain, especially if it's still warm, could produce some river flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night.  So whatever happens, there's going to be some hazard to deal with. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Starting Thursday, the warm weather will disappear, and not come back for a long time. There might be a warmish day thrown in here and there over the next two weeks starting Thursday, but most days will be at least seasonably chilly. 

It'll be an active pattern, too. A small storm looks to come through Friday night and Saturday with some snow, maybe mixed with a little rain. Then, a larger storm is then possible next Sunday and Momday. 

 

Signals for unusual warmth, which could result in localized record
highs on Monday and Tuesday, continue. On Monday the warmth looks
pronounced across our area, and then primarily in central and
southern portions of Vermont and the Adirondacks on Tuesday as
slightly cooler air filters in from the north. As far as actual
temperature forecasts, will note there may be too much of a bias
correction with the cold conditions we`ve had over the last couple
of months. Some of the statistical guidance shows more widespread
low to mid 60 high temperatures than the current forecast indicates
for tomorrow; coupled with some of the dynamical models, greatest
confidence in these warmest conditions are in the southern portions
of the Champlain Valley and Upper Valley in Vermont.

Trump Loses Again In His Fight To End New York Congestion Pricing

A court judge once again ruled against the Trump
ad ministration

Donald Trump lost yet another battle in his fight against New York City's congestion pricing.  

Trump's Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy sent a letter to New York authorities last February demanding the city stop charging tolls to motorists driving into Manhattan. Previous rulings allowed the practice to continue while the courts deliberated. 

On Tuesday, Manhattan U.S. District Court Judge Lewis Liman said Duffy had no authority to revoke federal approval for the program.  Congestion pricing can continue. 

Congestion pricing started up in January, 2025. Drivers pay a $9 daytime base fee if they enter Manhattan south of 60th Street. The money uses the revenue to pay for mass transit improvements. New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority has collected $562 million from the fees in 2025. 

The congestion pricing is mainly designed to reduce congestion in Manhattan and pay for costs and upgrades to public transit. It also has a climate change component, which is why I'm mentioning it in this here blog thingy. 

The theory is that fewer cars means less carbon going up into the atmosphere.  That would ever so slightly blunt New York's contribution to climate change. Every little bit helps, right? The theory is that fewer cars means less carbon going up into the atmosphere.  That would ever so slightly blunt New York's contribution to climate change. Every little bit helps, right?

Trump is strangely fixated on Manhattan's congestion pricing. You'd think he would be bigger fish to fry. 

First off, as New Republic notes, this is was an effort by Trump to please his MAGA base and maintain the fiction where they mentally live. As New Republic notes:

"Trump knows he has many fans among conservative suburbanites who love car culture and - with equal passion - hate an fear the subway, seeing it as a symbol of the chaos and danger in urban live, devouring every scary subway story and raging at the idea that their driving should fund this cesspool of crime. It is a culture war, for sure, a not a particularly new one the provincial and cosmopolitan strains of American lie have always been at odds?."

But worse for Trump,  the congestion pricing battle was a test of his authoritarian aims. It was a test, to make an example out of New York and its governor Kathy Hochul, who kept supporting the congestion pricing. 

As New Republic concluded, to Trump the King must not be defied. 

In this case, he was. By Hochul and he judge, and others. This means other city mayors and state governors might not be so ready to be cowed by Trump after this. 

New York's congestion pricing seems to be working. The New York Metropolitan Transit Authority collected $562 million in fees from congestion pricing in 2025. 

By one estimation, congestion pricing reduced traffic flow by 7.5 percent on certain bridges and tunnels and on FDR and West Side highways

And, although correlation isn't causation, retail sales in lower Manhattan were $900 million higher this January compared to last, a restaurant reservations were up 7 percent. 

Congestion pricing is by no means universally loved. When it started there was a ton of backlash, especially among commuters from New Jersey. 

Advocates of congestion pricing have won this battle, but this thing is far from over. The Trump administration has vowed to appeal the court ruling. 

Sunday Morning Clouds To Clear, Allowing Vermont Rapid Thaw To Continue. HUGE Question Marks Wednesday

Snow cover in my St. Albans, Vermont  back yard
during a sunny interval early Saturday afternoon.....

 The thaw is on, and it's impressive to see how much snow disappeared from my St. Albans, Vermont yard in just 24 hours. 

Most of the warmth yesterday was west of the Green Mountains and at high elevations where the warm air was really able to flow in on strong south winds.

 In Burlington, winds gusted as high as 49 mph Saturday as temperatures reached 50 degrees with sunny intervals overhead.  

Some of us experienced the remnants of what had been strong to severe thunderstorms in western New York. Here in St. Albans, I had a brief gush of particularly strong winds and a brief downpour last evening.  

Some valleys in eastern Vermont stayed in the 30s to around 40 as the south winds couldn't scour out the chill. The snow cover helped create a temperature inversion of shallow cold air, which the winds aloft couldn't overcome.

Springfield was really socked in, as the inversion created a dense overcast, fog and drizzle, They never got past 39 degrees The missed out in the periods of sun western Vermont saw. 

It stayed warm overnight, except in those eastern valleys so the melt continued. The first real ice jam of this thaw formed in the Mad River.  That river is prone to this sort of thing. A flood warning was up for parts of the Mad River Valley this morning due to some water backing up behind the ice jam. 

TODAY

.....and the same backyard view at around 9 a.m. this
morning. We lost a LOT of snow!

What the south winds couldn't do yesterday the sun will today. That is once the sun comes out later this morning.  

Looking at satellite photos, there's quite a few clouds upstream. That makes me less optimistic than many forecasts I've seen calling for a mostly sunny afternoon. I might be missing something, but we'll see.   

But in any event, at least some sun will come out, and that sun should break up any remaining inversion in eastern Vermont.

Almost everyone should even out in the mid 40s to low 50s this afternoon. It was almost that warm in western Vermont early this morning, but a weak flow of cooler air will slow the rate at which we'll warm up.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

There's our sunshine and warmth. Well, at least partial sunshine. It looks like a few clouds will streak the sky Monday, but that won't stop us from getting well into the 50s. Maybe low 60s in a couple spots.  It'll also be kinda windy in the Champlain Valley.

This warm spell has already created record highs in dozens of cities in the central and eastern parts of the nation.  We'll see many more record highs early this week. 

Here in Vermont, it'll be close, but probably no cigar.  Tomorrow's record high in Burlington is 70, so we won't reach that. Tuesday's record high is 63, and I'm doubting that one too, as we're still looking at the risk of slightly cooler air coming down from Quebec.

Still, the record high tomorrow in St Johnsbury is just 60 degrees, so that could be threatened if it gets a little warmer than forecast. And Montpelier's record high on Tuesday is also 60.

Lately, our warm spells have been over-performing, so who knows? Maybe we'll be surprised. 

WEDNESDAY

Speaking of surprises, the computer models are still at odds for Wednesday and how an incoming storm might affect us. One scenario is the storm going to our west, running up over central New York and heading toward maybe Montreal.  That would keep the warm air in Vermont until the cold front arrives Thursday morning. 

That would mean a road of heavy rain before the cold front and some possible flooding. Other scenarios bring the storm further south across New England. That would allow colder air to arrive ahead of the storm. That means at least northern Vermont would end up with mixed precipitation and some snow. 

So, we don't know if our brief heat wave will end Wednesday morning or Thursday morning. We also don't know what kind of weather we'll see at the end of our warm spell. The forecast I'd give now is not at all helpful for Wednesday and Thursday:  Rain, or snow or a mix with highs from the mid 30s to low 60s.

It's kind of annoying that we don't really know what kind of weather we'll have in three days, but that's the nature of March. It really is the most unpredictable weather month of the year.

Oh, and it looks like another storm might sweep through here Friday or Saturday with snow or mixed precipitation. That might be followed by yet another storm a week from Tuesday. Local meteorologists are really going to have to stay on their toes. 

 

At Least Eight Dead In Tornado Outbreak, More Severe Weather Due

Enormous tornado seen shredding a 
neighborhood on Friday across still
partly frozen Union Lake in 
Michigan Friday. 

Tornado season in the United States is off to an early and tragic start. 

So far, at least eight deaths have been reported in tornadoes over the past two days that struck from Texas to Michigan.

As mentioned in an earlier post, a woman and her daughter died in tornado in Oklahoma on Thursday night. 

On Friday, powerful tornadoes unexpectedly struck southern Michigan, killing four people. It was the deadliest day for tornadoes in Michigan since 1980.

Social media has been full of images of a huge tornado chewing up houses in Union City, where three people died. Another tornado hit Three Rivers, where it shredded commercial buildings and houses.  .

Videos are at the bottom of this post.  

Although the forecast indicated there was a small possibility of a  brief, weak tornado in southern Michigan, nobody expected anything like this. This will likely be the earliest on record that twisters of that strength have been seen in Michigan.

Normally, Michigan gets about 13 tornadoes a year, and on average gets just one per year in March.  The only comparable March tornado I can think of off hand was an EF-3 in Dexter, Michigan on March 15, 2012, which destroyed about a dozen homes. 

The Washington Post explains it well:

"The afternoon tornado was particularly striking because it passed over several frozen lakes, including Union Lake. And it did so in an area that may not have been expecting it - the National Weather Service forecast Michigan to have a marginal (1 out of 5) severe weather risk. Only weak, low-end tornadoes were considered plausible, and the main focus of potentially damaging tornadoes on Friday was on the Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley."

Those area were indeed hit later on Friday.  More on that coming up. 

 One persistent supercell thunderstorm swept across southern Michigan, but it's unclear whether that storm produced one tornado with a long path or several tornadoes in succession. The storm formed near a warm front working its way northward. As WaPo noted, meteorologists advise that we should never trust warm fronts in the spring. They often bring unpleasant surprises. 

The first spot that suffered extensive damage was Three Rivers, Michigan, population 7,900.  Video shows the twister crashing into Menard's which issort of the Midwest version of Home Depot or Lowe's 

With shoppers and employees inside, the roof flew off, one end of the store collapsed and much of the front entrance was torn away, Cars were thrown around the parking lot, Amazingly, nobody at Menard's, or anywhere else in town for that matter were seriously injured. 

A still from a video showing a tornado tearing the roof
off of a Menard's in Three Rivers, Michigan, 

One lucky person was the guy unwisely videoing the tornado chaos outside the window of the retail store he was in Despite a giant flock of debris crashing into the store, the window the man was up against did not break. 

Judging from photos of the damage, this tornado might have been an EF-3

As the supercell continued on northeastward, the tornado either continued on northeastward or lifted temporarily before reaching Union City. The tornado that hit this town appeared to be much bigger and likely more powerful than whatever hit Three Rivers

Video showed the tornado roaring through a neighborhood on the north edge of mostly frozen Union Lake. This is where those three people died. A fourth person died elsewhere in southern Michigan, presumably from the tornado.   The broad, wedged shaped tornado could be seen flinging houses and trees into the air.

OKLAHOMA AGAIN

The action shifted back to Oklahoma and surrounding areas toward evening, the part of the nation that was forecast to be at risk for strong tornadoes  

It was the second day in a row tornadoes took the lives of Oklahomans. I mentioned the mother and daughter who died Thursday night in that twister northwest of Oklahoma City. 

Friday night's storms focused in eastern Oklahoma, especially near Tulsa. Two people died when a large tornado mowed through the tiny city of Beggs, south of Tulsa. That tornado wrecked homes and badly damaged a school .

Another tornado caused damage on the north side of Tulsa. 

It's not unheard of to have a tornado outbreak this early in the season, but it's on the rare side, especially considering now widespread the tornadoes and the threat of twisters is with this one. 

So far, we've seen 31 reports of tornadoes since Friday.

It's possible more tornadoes could touch down today somewhere in a band from northeast Texas to western New York. The most likely place for tornadoes are western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio, where a tornado watch is in effect this afternoon. 

Another outbreak of severe weather and possible tornadoes seems like this coming Tuesday and Wednesday in the Plains and Midwest. 

VIDEOS

The Union City, Michigan tornado, as seen from across Union Lake. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that:

A guy in Three Rivers video'd the tornado as it approached the business he was in. He's damn lucky the window didn't shatter when the wave of debris and high winds hits. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.