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| One of the unexpectedly large and deadly tornadoes that struck southern Michigan on March 6. Political leaders are calling for investigations as to whether Trump cuts to the National Weather Service are causing forecast inaccuracies. |
No tornado watch had been issued in Michigan before the storms, though tornado warnings were issued when radar images detected rotation and witnesses reported tornadoes forming.
This, from Whitmer's office:
"The National Weather Service exists to monitor conditions and inform Americans of severe weather in their communities. The fact that the (National Weather)Service did not issue a tornado watch is troubling, especially with the loss of life in Michigan," Witmer spokeswoman Stacey LaRouche said in a statement.
That statement continues:
"While tornadoes can be hard to predict, the federal government should investigate whether the failure to use a watch was related to federal cuts."
Also, Michigan U.S. Senators Gary Peters and Elissa Slotkin also sent letters to the National Weather Service offices in Marquette, Gaylord, Grand Rapids, Detroit and northern Indiana asking whether lack of staffing or resources could have affected whether a tornado watch was issued.
While it's absolutely possible budget and staff cuts have hindered the National Weather Service's forecasting prowess, there was also a pecific reason why a watch was not issued.
This was a unique situation. The Nation Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center did not issue a tornado watch because the atmospheric setup suggested only the risk of isolated, likely weak and brief tornadoes. That's not normally enough to issue a tornado watch.
A tornado watch is usually issued as a heads up for a large area that widespread, severe storms are likely to occur, noted CBS Detroit chief meteorologist Ahmed J. Bajjey. A watch means people should pay attention and be ready to take shelter if need be.
And it turns out there was just isolated activity, which followed the "rules" on not issuing a tornado watch. This one was different, though. Only one supercell thunderstorm produced the series of four tornadoes that spread death and destruction across southern Michigan on March 6.
The National Weather Service did issue tornado warnings when it became apparent the twisters were forming. A tornado warning means people should take shelter immediately.
One good question is did forecaster miss clues ahead of time that southern Michigan would fall victim to intense, long-lasting tornadoes? It's probably worth investigating, not to shame the meteorologists involved, but to learn how to better forecast in scenarios similar to what Michigan endure on March 6,
It's been a year since sharp and unpredictable Trump administration cuts to the National Weather Service and its parent organization NOAA began.
There's reason to believe the system is straining.
ANOTHER TORNADO FORECAST
While we're at it, we should look at another questionable tornado forecast. This was on Monday, when NOAA gave a moderate risk - the second highest of five alert levels - of tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic states. Some of the tornadoes were forecast to be possibly strong.
We did see a few hundred reports of wind damage up and down the East Coast Monday, so part of the forecast came true. But there were hardly any tornadoes, and no strong ones. That's great news, of course.
But the dire alerts that went out on Sunday that the next day would be a frightening scene of violent tornadoes frightened the public, in this case unnecessarily.
In this case, forecasters didn't expect some early thunderstorms on the Carolina coast Monday morning that stole energy from the atmosphere in the mid-Atlantic states. The winds in the atmosphere also didn't turn out to be quite as conducive to tornadoes as first thought.
Updated computer model runs Sunday evening began to back away from the idea of strong tornadoes and wind gusts over 75 mph. But by then the message had gotten out of the tornado risk. It was too late for the public to notice these first signs that the tornado risk was lowering.
If the so-called DOGE cutbacks at NOAA had any negative effect on the forecast it would have likely come in one of two ways: One, is National Weather Service offices were so short staffed that meteorologists didn't have the opportunity to note subtle signs that the tornado outbreak was not to be.
That is the more unlikely of the two scenarios. A more plausible explanation is that there are now too few balloon launches that capture the meteorological intricacies of the atmosphere. With not as much data being collected by the weather balloons, the computer generated forecasts might not be as accurate. This is another issue that deserves a lot more scrutiny.
I don't know whether DOGE is to blame for the botched tornado forecast. But if the short-sighted Trump administration cutbacks are to blame, I fear the next time, the National Weather Service won't be able to forecast and anticipate a deadly tornado outbreak or other weather disaster.
Meteorology is a complex science. So complex that weather forecasts will be wrong from time to time, no matter how fully staffed a particular National Weather Service office is.
Michigan's governor and the state's two U.S. Senators will probably learn that the March 6 tornado forecasting didn't fall short. Many of us first worried a year ago when the DOGE cuts were first happening that they would threaten the lives of Americans.
I'm ready for a full analysis of whether that has been the case.
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