Follow The Bouncing Temperatures As Vermont Freezing Rain Tonight Yields To Eventual New False Spring

Yesterday I began my March ritual in which I spread parts
of the deep snowbanks covering the gardens next
to my driveway back onto the pavement to melt faster in
the sun.  It's better than waiting until well into April to
see those snowbanks disappear. I'll have to stop this
work today and tomorrow, but will probably 
resume flinging the snow back onto the pavement
to melt in the sun come Sunday. 

March weather is usually confusing, surprising and all over the place in Vermont. That's definitely true this week!   

We started with subzero cold on Monday morning, followed by a shot of snow and icy roads Tuesday night, followed by a Wednesday that really felt like spring is coming. 

So much for that idea. It has turned colder, and will stay that way today especially in the Champlain Valley. More freezing rain is coming to parts of the state, followed by a huge thaw. We think.  

As usual, let's take it step by step.  

TODAY:  

Increasing clouds as that next wave of precipitation approaches. Highs will top out only near 30 in the central and northern Champlain Valley,  as that big, bloated Arctic high pressure in northern Quebec drains some of its chilly air down the Richelieu River valley and on into the Champlain Valley. 

 Highs elsewhere in Vermont will reach the 30s in the north and maybe near 40 south. 

TONIGHT

That big bloated, Arctic high in Quebec keeps trending a bit closer to New England for tonight, which means we have some more forecast adjustments. You might remember yesterday I said there was an unlikely scenario in which far northern Vermont would get either no ice or snow? Well, that's become much more likely.

So places like St. Albans and Newport seem pretty much off the hook for icy roads and such tonight and tomorrow morning.  

The further south you go the worse things will get overnight and Friday morning. North central Vermont, places like Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, should be OK. They'll get a little snow, likely less than an inch. There might be a few ice pellets or freezing rain drops near the onset of precipitation tonight, but nothing really to panic over.

The problems really start to show up from central Vermont south. A winter weather advisory is up from the southern Champlain Valley south to Bennington and beyond in western Vermont, an Windham County over in the southeastern parts of the state for freezing rain, sleet and eventually snow. 

If you have road trip plans in those areas, you're going to encounter a rough time tonight and tomorrow morning. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Friday will just be cloudy and raw and VERY March like. You know, grey skies above, miserable dampness, highs only in the 30s to near 40.  Overnight Friday and early Saturday, there might be a little more freezing drizzle east of the Greens,.

On Saturday, the winds will really pick up, especially in the Champlain Valley where gusts could reach 40 mph. Those will be south winds, so highs should get into to the low 50s, which would be the warmest it's been all year. 

Saturday's weather will end the Lake Champlain ice party. Many of us have had the rare treat this winter of walking on water - specifically the frozen surface of Lake Champlain. The warmth and the wind will make the lake too dangerous to be on, except maybe the most thickly frozen bays. But otherwise, the wind and the warmth will start breaking up the ice. Get you ice shanties off the lake while you can. 

Eastern Vermont might stay a little cooler, but will still get well above freezing. Some patchy rain will come through, mostly in the late afternoon and evening. The thaw and rain might be enough to break up some river ice, so we'll have to start thinking about ice jams.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

If you liked yesterday's weather, you'll love Sunday and Monday. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures should hit the mid and upper 40s Sunday and get into the 50s in most low elevations Monday. 

Tuesday looks warm, too, but another Arctic high way up in  Canada might diminish the party in northern areas a bit by briefly dropping temperatures slightly. I'm not sure on that but we'll see. 

Early guesses are that a cold front will arrive Wednesday to end false spring. We might get one more warm day Wednesday as showers move in.

Although we're won't see much rain during this big thaw, the snow will melt so fast we will have to worry about ice jams and just general spots of lowland flooding along some rivers. We'll have more details as we get closer to those dates.