Flood Watch, Ice, Rain And Temperature Gyrations Galore In Vermont

An ice jam seen here along the Great 
Chazy River in Moores, New York
badly damaging a campground
Vermont continues to be at risk
for ice jams and flooding, too.

It's going to be almost impossible to write this post without being confusing as temperatures and weather conditions are going to be all over the place over the next day or two. 

Almost literally wait a minute and it will change in some places.

The bottom line is there is a flood watch through Thursday afternoon. And our spring weather will fade over the next couple days amid rain, and even freezing rain. Then a little snow to top if off. Then more storms through next Monday. 

I told you it was complicated. 

YESTERDAY

Temperatures did over-perform somewhat Monday, just as I expected. Most forecasters predicted highs Monday to get up to around 60 degrees. Instead, most places got into the 60s. Rutland reached 68 degrees.

It was 65 degrees in Burlington, which made Monday the warmest day since October 20. Ice jams are still out there, the snow is still melting, so the flood watch continues today, tomorrow and into Thursday.   

TODAY

The warmth party will start to end north of Route 2 this afternoon. That weird cold front is north of Montreal and heading steadily south, driven by another frigid high pressure over northern Quebec. If you remember, we went through the same thing last week. 

This time, today's temperatures will zoom upward this morning, and then get cut off at the pass by the low level cold air coming south. It'll be most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley and some areas near the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom. In those areas, temperatures will fall, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into tonight. 

A couple light showers might accompany the cold front in the north. 

In central and southern Vermont the cold front won't be noticeable until tonight, and not to the extent you'll see in the north. Highs will get well into the 60s today. A spot 70 degree reading is entirely out the question.

TONIGHT:

Here's where things get complicated. It looks like it will cool off enough in far northern Vermont where we will probably end up with some freezing rain, especially in the northern Champlain Valley. That's a real cold slap to end our beautiful "false spring"

So far, it doesn't look like much ice will accumulate. But it's tricky, because it's hard to tell how extensive and persistent this thin layer of cold air near the ground will be. That will determine how much ice there is. A winter weather advisory is up for Grand Isle County. That advisory goes from 11 p.m. tonight. It ends at 2 p.m. tomorrow, reflected the uncertainty with the temperatures and the ice. 

Some areas in far northern Vermont might have an icy drive to work tomorrow morning. Which would be a shock if you've been wandering around outdoors in shorts for the past couple of days. 

For now it's wait and see on the potential for ice elsewhere in the north. Stay tuned for updated forecasts later today. 

WEDNESDAY

Expected rainfall now through Thursday. Heaviest rain
is forces in New York. But in Vermont, rain combined
with snow melt will be enough to cause ice jams
and put some rivers into flood stage. 

The thinking for tomorrow is the storm will go by a little to our west, dragging that cold front back as a warm front.  If t
hat happens as forecasters think, then temperatures will rebound into the 50s for most of Vermont. 

This will keep the rain and snow melt going. So far, the flooding in Vermont has been mostly isolated near ice jams. The rain and continued snow melt would expand the flooding to rivers across the state. 

At this point, it doesn't look like a major flood. But as ice jams break up, there could be unpredictable, sudden changes in water levels.  The usual low lying roads will probably get submerged like they often do in the spring. 

Rainfall looks like it will total a half inch to an inch west of the Green Mountains, with the most north. Eastern Vermont should have about a third of an inch south to a half inch north. With the snow melt, that's more than enough to push at least some rivers over their banks.

I'll have more on how extensive the flooding might be in tomorrow morning's report. 

As you can imagine, the weird temperature forecast for the next 24 hours is tricky, so we'll probably see some forecast adjustments. For now this just gives you the best guess on how this will turn out.  Just basically be prepared for temperatures in the low 30s to mid 60s, especially north, now through tomorrow. 

Yes, I know that's not very helpful. But March is almost always a strange weather month.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

The forecast actually gets a little easier by the time we get to Thursday. The storm's final cold front will come through, dropping temperatures and ending the rain as a little snow in some areas. We won't see ,much accumulation 

Another, smaller storm looks likely later Friday and Friday night. That could drop a few inches of snow in some spots, especially the mountains. The snow might be mixed with rain for part of this storm in warmer valleys. 

Then, a larger storm is in the cards toward Sunday and Monday. This one looks like it will come with a fair amount of wind, and worse, changing precipitation types. 

Monday Evening Quick Vermont Update: Flood Watch Issued

Screen grab from a WPTZ report on the big ice
jam in Moretown, Vermont shows a vast jumble of
ice stuck in the river 

 The National Weather Service office in South Burlington decided to pull the trigger this afternoon and issue a flood watch.  

It's in effect for all but the southern two counties of Vermont, mostly because the Albany, New York National Weather Service office covers those areas. 

Northern New York is in the flood watch, too 

It's a long lasting weather alert, in effect now until during the day Thursday. 

For tonight through tomorrow, no rain is expected, but the warm weather will continue to take a toll on river ice. A cool night that got into the low 30s in a lot of places temporarily slowed the melt. Then it got into the 60s most places in Vermont this afternoon, and that's surely breaking up more ice that could lead to more jams.  

There's also plenty of snow left to melt in the mid and high elevations of Vermont 

An ice jam was still in place along the Mad River in Moretown at last report. I bet there's other trouble areas developing this evening after today's warmth. 

Tuesday's highs are tricky because it depends on when a cold front comes through in the north. Temperatures north Route 2 might end up falling through the 50s during the afternoon. Southern Vermont won't be affected by the cold front and might even be warmer than today.

So much cold air could drain into the valleys of northern Vermont, including the northern and possibly central Champlain Valley that there could be some freezing rain early Wednesday. I'll have  more details on this tomorrow, 

Enough rain might fall Wednesday to worsen the risk of flooding across Vermont. Another strong cold front should come through. That'll change the rain to snow before it ends. Also ending is our early hint of spring we're getting now.

Starting Thursday it's back to reality with temperatures staying near or below normal for quite awhile, with frequent chances of snow, maybe mixed with some rain. I'll have more in Tuesday morning's post.

 

Follow The Bouncing Temperatures As Vermont Freezing Rain Tonight Yields To Eventual New False Spring

Yesterday I began my March ritual in which I spread parts
of the deep snowbanks covering the gardens next
to my driveway back onto the pavement to melt faster in
the sun.  It's better than waiting until well into April to
see those snowbanks disappear. I'll have to stop this
work today and tomorrow, but will probably 
resume flinging the snow back onto the pavement
to melt in the sun come Sunday. 

March weather is usually confusing, surprising and all over the place in Vermont. That's definitely true this week!   

We started with subzero cold on Monday morning, followed by a shot of snow and icy roads Tuesday night, followed by a Wednesday that really felt like spring is coming. 

So much for that idea. It has turned colder, and will stay that way today especially in the Champlain Valley. More freezing rain is coming to parts of the state, followed by a huge thaw. We think.  

As usual, let's take it step by step.  

TODAY:  

Increasing clouds as that next wave of precipitation approaches. Highs will top out only near 30 in the central and northern Champlain Valley,  as that big, bloated Arctic high pressure in northern Quebec drains some of its chilly air down the Richelieu River valley and on into the Champlain Valley. 

 Highs elsewhere in Vermont will reach the 30s in the north and maybe near 40 south. 

TONIGHT

That big bloated, Arctic high in Quebec keeps trending a bit closer to New England for tonight, which means we have some more forecast adjustments. You might remember yesterday I said there was an unlikely scenario in which far northern Vermont would get either no ice or snow? Well, that's become much more likely.

So places like St. Albans and Newport seem pretty much off the hook for icy roads and such tonight and tomorrow morning.  

The further south you go the worse things will get overnight and Friday morning. North central Vermont, places like Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, should be OK. They'll get a little snow, likely less than an inch. There might be a few ice pellets or freezing rain drops near the onset of precipitation tonight, but nothing really to panic over.

The problems really start to show up from central Vermont south. A winter weather advisory is up from the southern Champlain Valley south to Bennington and beyond in western Vermont, an Windham County over in the southeastern parts of the state for freezing rain, sleet and eventually snow. 

If you have road trip plans in those areas, you're going to encounter a rough time tonight and tomorrow morning. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Friday will just be cloudy and raw and VERY March like. You know, grey skies above, miserable dampness, highs only in the 30s to near 40.  Overnight Friday and early Saturday, there might be a little more freezing drizzle east of the Greens,.

On Saturday, the winds will really pick up, especially in the Champlain Valley where gusts could reach 40 mph. Those will be south winds, so highs should get into to the low 50s, which would be the warmest it's been all year. 

Saturday's weather will end the Lake Champlain ice party. Many of us have had the rare treat this winter of walking on water - specifically the frozen surface of Lake Champlain. The warmth and the wind will make the lake too dangerous to be on, except maybe the most thickly frozen bays. But otherwise, the wind and the warmth will start breaking up the ice. Get you ice shanties off the lake while you can. 

Eastern Vermont might stay a little cooler, but will still get well above freezing. Some patchy rain will come through, mostly in the late afternoon and evening. The thaw and rain might be enough to break up some river ice, so we'll have to start thinking about ice jams.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

If you liked yesterday's weather, you'll love Sunday and Monday. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures should hit the mid and upper 40s Sunday and get into the 50s in most low elevations Monday. 

Tuesday looks warm, too, but another Arctic high way up in  Canada might diminish the party in northern areas a bit by briefly dropping temperatures slightly. I'm not sure on that but we'll see. 

Early guesses are that a cold front will arrive Wednesday to end false spring. We might get one more warm day Wednesday as showers move in.

Although we're won't see much rain during this big thaw, the snow will melt so fast we will have to worry about ice jams and just general spots of lowland flooding along some rivers. We'll have more details as we get closer to those dates.

 

Sunday Morning Storm Update: Death Toll Up To At Least 34, Tornadoes To Wind Down; Vermont Still Expecting Flooding

Tornado destruction his weekend in
Diaz, Arkansas, Photo via Facebook
by Ronnie Burgess 

The death toll from the storms that rolled through the United States rose to 34 as of early this morning.

Twelve of the deaths were caused by tornadoes in Missouri. In Mississippi, six people are dead, three are missing and 29 are injured. 

In Kansas, eight people lost their lives, not in tornadoes, but because they got caught in blinding dust storms on highways, causing numerous crashes. 

The bottom line is this was the most U.S. deadly disaster so far this year. The January wildfires in California caused 29 deaths. 

More tornadoes swept through the South Saturday, causing more destruction.  Today, more tornadoes could strike in a stripe from western Pennsylvania to Florida. A tornado warning was already effect early this  morning a little north of Augusta, Georgia. 

So far there have been at least 58 reports of tornadoes from the Midwest to Southeast Friday and Saturday. 

After today and tonight, the storm should finally depart the United States after leaving that trail of wildfire destruction, dust storm debris, tornadoes and flooding. 

New storms will cross the nation in the coming weeks with more packets of severe storms, tornadoes and wind, but these next storms so far do not look as intense as the one the U.S. has just endured.

VERMONT WARMTH/FLOODING

The "Woof River" what I call the tiny stream running
by my St. Albans, Vermont home, was running high
and muddy yesterday amid rapid snowmelt and
temperatures in the upper 60s. If you look closely
at the black soil on the left, you can see daffodil
shoots starting to come up. The area in this
photo was buried in snow and ice just three days ago. 

After a very warm Saturday and overnight last night, water levels in rivers are starting to rise.  Those water levels were still well below flood level this morning, but will continue to come up today as the snow continues to melt away.

High temperatures Saturday reached 67 degrees in Burlington, and 69 degrees in Bennington, and all the way to 70 degrees in Rutland.  As of 7 a.m. this morning, the temperature had not gotten below 50 degrees in Burlington. That's warmer than I've seen on some July early mornings. 

The expected rainfall has been postponed just a bit until the end of today.  That will allow temperatures to hit 70 degrees in the warmer towns today. That's a good 30 degrees above normal for this time of year, so it's pretty incredible. 

The bottom line to all this is remaining snow will continue melting very fast and contribute to the risk offloading. 

So far, flood forecasts call for a few rivers to reach at least minor flooding.  The Mad River is expected to get to 10.5 feet tonight, which is just a little under moderate flood stage.  The Otter Creek in Center Rutland, and the Missisquoi River in North Troy are also forecast to reach flood stage.

Other rivers - so far - are forecast to not quite reach flood stage.  However, water levels this morning were generally a little higher than predicted. Which means it's possible that flood levels could get a little higher than this morning's flood crest predictions. 

We'll also have to keep an eye on smaller streams and creeks.  Rapid snow melt can turn a small stream into a torrent pretty quickly.  We could see local washouts and culvert damage. Especially since things are still unstable from last summer's flood. That could make things a little more susceptible to damage. 

One bit of good news is predicted rainfall tonight in Vermont is a little less than previous forecast. Still, it will be briefly heavy, with a chance of a rumble of thunder.  Expect a third of an inch to an inch of rain in most place in the Green Mountain State between now and midday Monday. 

As of this morning, there's still ice on some of the river.  We still might see some ice jams, which can cause some rapid local flooding.  I think the most likely river to see any ice jams is the Missisquoi.

Needless to say, a flood watch remains in effect for all of Vermont through Monday evening. 

It's actually going to stay on the warm side this coming week.  Not as warm as this weekend, but still balmy for March. It looks like we might get a little more rain, too.  However, by then, so much snow will have melted that I'm not too worried about renewed flooding.

By the way, the water level of Lake Champlain is starting to rise, and will continue to do so.  But the chances of ever reaching flood stage are iffy.  It depends on how much snow and rain falls the rest of this spring, and how intensely it falls.

Flood stage is 100 feet. As of yesterday, the lake level was at 95.44 feet, up about half a foot in the sag week. That pace of lake water rise will accelerate the next few days, but will stop short of flood stage.

Lake Champlain probably won't flood significant this year unless the rest of the spring is particularly rainy and snowy.  

More Warm Weather Coming In Remarkably Toasty Vermont Late Autumn

Frost on some garden plants in St. Albans, Vermont this 
morning. Although we've just had a couple seasonably
chilly days, another dramatic warmup is in store. 

 After a couple frosty mornings, and bright, cool, pleasant days, the weather in Vermont is about to turn toasty again for an extended period. 

That's good news if you're like me, and chronically late in buttoning things down for the winter. This calm, mild weather is buying us a little time before winter inevitably settles in. 

Recent autumns have been front loaded with warmth, with often record and near record temperatures early on, in September and early October, with a sharp cooling trend in late October and November.

This year is turning out a little different. It was warmish, but not particularly toasty in September and the first half of October. But the heat has really turned up lately.

So far this autumn, Burlington hasn't had a daily high temperature under 50 degrees, and won't have a day that stays in the 40s for at least a week, probably more. 

The last time we had an autumn in which we waited  until after November 1 to see a daytime high in the 40s was way back in 1994, when that kind of cool weather didn't arrive until November 10.  

We're still waiting for our first snow flurry of the season in the Champlain Valley, too. On average, that comes around October 15.  It won't snow for at least a week. The last time we waited this long for the first flakes of the season was on November 16, 2007.

Despite the past two days being just ever so slightly on the cool side, another big warm up is on the way. 

Or course, it won't be nearly as hot as that record 78 degree reading in Burlington this past Wednesday, but it will be up there. 

As we end October and start November, normal highs around 50 degrees, and conditions are often cloudy and gloomy.  November is on average Vermont's cloudiest month of the year. 

However, November, 2022 is opening really warm. We'll hit at least 60 degrees tomorrow and on Halloween. Chances are also quite high that each of the first seven days of November will make it to at least 60 degrees. 

After a seasonably cool evening tonight, it looks like nights through the first week of November will be mild, too. Lows will mostly be in the 40s, with a few nights possibly bottoming out at just around 50 degrees.

Forecasters have backed away from forecasts of rain on Halloween and are now saying there might be, at most, a few scattered light showers. Little or no rain is coming for the first part of November. Most days will be partly to mostly sunny through the opening week of the month. 

That's actually kind of too bad.

We were doing well replenishing groundwater with some pretty stiff storms in September and October. It wouldn't hurt to see more drenching rains before the ground freezes. 

But, it's hard to complain about such nice weather coming up.  In the worst years, winter sets in during the first or second week of November.

Vermont winters are long enough. We can live without any extra snow and cold this time of year. I'll take the balmy sunshine, thank you.