A Bout Of Icy Weather In Some Parts Of Vermont Then a Brief, Warm Interlude

We can't quite shake winter. Areas in yellow and orange
can expect a glaze of ice tonight before much warmer
air arrives tomorrow, 

 It's another overcast morning in Vermont, with some rain falling far southern sections of the states. 

The wide-ranging temperatures we saw over the past few days have finally evened up for now. 

Pretty much the whole state started today in the low to mid 30s. Early April in Vermont can be a little like November. But at least we're not facing along winter like we would be in November, so we have that optimism. 

Although it was cold enough this morning for snow in southern Vermont, there's warm air aloft, so it's rain. Some sleet might be mixing in at a few spots, but web cams so far show little direct evidence of that. Still, a special weather statement notes the risk of freezing rain this morning, mostly at elevations above 2,000 feet in the southern Greens. 

That warm overhead cold surface have wintry implications for tonight. It's April, but here in Vermont that doesn't necessarily mean wintry weather is over 

A winter weather advisory is for Vermont from the Green Mountains east and from about Springfield north to the Canadian border tonight. 

It's the same problem we've frequently had in late winter and early spring. Warm air is trying to push in, but cold high pressure in Quebec is feeding in low level cold air. The result is the risk of freezing rain

We know there won't be much precipitation of any kinds, and what does fall over and east of the Green Mountains won't be entirely freezing rain. 

However, as usual in these cases, the freezing rain will be spotty. If you're driving anywhere in the winter weather advisory zone overnight and early Friday, you'll encounter patches of ice alternating with above freezing areas, so this will keep you on your toes.

Western Vermont should be too warm for freezing rain.  Some of the overnight showers north and west could actually contain a rumble of thunder or two. That's not exactly a sure bet, but since it's spring, thunder is beginning to become more possible with storm systems. 

WEEKEND

It will warm up really quickly Friday as a warm front blows by, so any freezing rain will stop being an annoyance pretty early in the day. There should be showers around especially during the first half of the day and especially north an west as another storm blows by far to our north. 

The cold front with this storm will be incredibly lame, so not chilly air will be able to work in. Which means Saturday should be fairly mild with highs into the 50s. As the next storm approaches Sunday, the chances of showers will ramp up. It'll stay on the warm-ish side as we once again reach the 50s 

 BEYOND THE WEEKEND:

Unfortunately, we can't sustain spring quite yet. The first half of April is known for its excursions back to winter. 

So, at least the first half of next week will be cold, with highs in the 30s and 40s with subfreezing temperatures overnight. That might keep the sugaring season going on a little longer in parts of the state that haven't had too much warm weather yet. 

And let's face it, the chill early next week won't be anything extreme. We can still have huge snowstorm this time of year, and historically, record cold would mean temperatures in the single numbers to low teens. 

Neither of which will happen next week,  Our world will soon green up regardless of whether we get a little cold air or not.

Flood Watch, Ice, Rain And Temperature Gyrations Galore In Vermont

An ice jam seen here along the Great 
Chazy River in Moores, New York
badly damaging a campground
Vermont continues to be at risk
for ice jams and flooding, too.

It's going to be almost impossible to write this post without being confusing as temperatures and weather conditions are going to be all over the place over the next day or two. 

Almost literally wait a minute and it will change in some places.

The bottom line is there is a flood watch through Thursday afternoon. And our spring weather will fade over the next couple days amid rain, and even freezing rain. Then a little snow to top if off. Then more storms through next Monday. 

I told you it was complicated. 

YESTERDAY

Temperatures did over-perform somewhat Monday, just as I expected. Most forecasters predicted highs Monday to get up to around 60 degrees. Instead, most places got into the 60s. Rutland reached 68 degrees.

It was 65 degrees in Burlington, which made Monday the warmest day since October 20. Ice jams are still out there, the snow is still melting, so the flood watch continues today, tomorrow and into Thursday.   

TODAY

The warmth party will start to end north of Route 2 this afternoon. That weird cold front is north of Montreal and heading steadily south, driven by another frigid high pressure over northern Quebec. If you remember, we went through the same thing last week. 

This time, today's temperatures will zoom upward this morning, and then get cut off at the pass by the low level cold air coming south. It'll be most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley and some areas near the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom. In those areas, temperatures will fall, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into tonight. 

A couple light showers might accompany the cold front in the north. 

In central and southern Vermont the cold front won't be noticeable until tonight, and not to the extent you'll see in the north. Highs will get well into the 60s today. A spot 70 degree reading is entirely out the question.

TONIGHT:

Here's where things get complicated. It looks like it will cool off enough in far northern Vermont where we will probably end up with some freezing rain, especially in the northern Champlain Valley. That's a real cold slap to end our beautiful "false spring"

So far, it doesn't look like much ice will accumulate. But it's tricky, because it's hard to tell how extensive and persistent this thin layer of cold air near the ground will be. That will determine how much ice there is. A winter weather advisory is up for Grand Isle County. That advisory goes from 11 p.m. tonight. It ends at 2 p.m. tomorrow, reflected the uncertainty with the temperatures and the ice. 

Some areas in far northern Vermont might have an icy drive to work tomorrow morning. Which would be a shock if you've been wandering around outdoors in shorts for the past couple of days. 

For now it's wait and see on the potential for ice elsewhere in the north. Stay tuned for updated forecasts later today. 

WEDNESDAY

Expected rainfall now through Thursday. Heaviest rain
is forces in New York. But in Vermont, rain combined
with snow melt will be enough to cause ice jams
and put some rivers into flood stage. 

The thinking for tomorrow is the storm will go by a little to our west, dragging that cold front back as a warm front.  If t
hat happens as forecasters think, then temperatures will rebound into the 50s for most of Vermont. 

This will keep the rain and snow melt going. So far, the flooding in Vermont has been mostly isolated near ice jams. The rain and continued snow melt would expand the flooding to rivers across the state. 

At this point, it doesn't look like a major flood. But as ice jams break up, there could be unpredictable, sudden changes in water levels.  The usual low lying roads will probably get submerged like they often do in the spring. 

Rainfall looks like it will total a half inch to an inch west of the Green Mountains, with the most north. Eastern Vermont should have about a third of an inch south to a half inch north. With the snow melt, that's more than enough to push at least some rivers over their banks.

I'll have more on how extensive the flooding might be in tomorrow morning's report. 

As you can imagine, the weird temperature forecast for the next 24 hours is tricky, so we'll probably see some forecast adjustments. For now this just gives you the best guess on how this will turn out.  Just basically be prepared for temperatures in the low 30s to mid 60s, especially north, now through tomorrow. 

Yes, I know that's not very helpful. But March is almost always a strange weather month.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

The forecast actually gets a little easier by the time we get to Thursday. The storm's final cold front will come through, dropping temperatures and ending the rain as a little snow in some areas. We won't see ,much accumulation 

Another, smaller storm looks likely later Friday and Friday night. That could drop a few inches of snow in some spots, especially the mountains. The snow might be mixed with rain for part of this storm in warmer valleys. 

Then, a larger storm is in the cards toward Sunday and Monday. This one looks like it will come with a fair amount of wind, and worse, changing precipitation types. 

Tuesday Morning, White Christmas Creator On Vermont's Doorstep, Few Inches Snow Coming

Snow accumulation forecast for the small storm today
and tonight hasn't changed much. Expect two to five
inches in the valleys, with a little more than 
that up in the mountains. 

As of this Tuesday morning, we're still on the verge of receiving our small storm that would guarantee a white Christmas in Vermont. It'll arrive just in time for the holiday, Bing Crosby style. 

But then again, an unexpected snow in some parts of Vermont Monday already did the job. 

Flurries had been predicted, but instead, a steady light snow fell in northern Vermont Monday afternoon and evening. The mini-storm left behind an inch or so of snow in a several places. 

Burlington had 1.3 inches and here in St. Albans, my yard is now covered by 1.1 inches of powder. That  qualifies for a white Christmas. 

In any event, we're still going to get our pre-Christmas snow today, , and it will come down statewide. 

SNOWY TUESDAY

A surprise 1.1 inches of snow fell on St. Albans,
Vermont Monday, so we already have a white
Christmas set up. Today's snow will add to 
the holiday cheer, and areas of Vermont that
don't have snow on the ground will by
this afternoon and evening. 

The forecast for this storm hasn't changed much since yesterday. It'll be a small storm by Vermont standards, Most valleys will see about two to five inches of snow. 

The mountains will probably see a little more than that. A winter weather advisory remains in effect across Vermont except in the deeper valleys west and southeast. 

As dawn broke, there were a few snow flurries in the air. But the steady snow should start in southwestern Vermont during the mid to late morning. By noon or 1 p.m. or so, it should be snowing along the length of Interstate 89.   

The snow should reach the Northeast Kingdom by mid afternoon. 

It'll never snow really hard, but the steadiest snow will come down between about 3 and 10 p.m. Keep that in mind if you're driving home from work, going to holiday events or getting some last minute shopping done. 

The roads throughout Vermont this afternoon and evening won't be great. Slow it down if you're driving, keep a good distance between you and the car ahead of you, etc. You know, the usual winter safe driving rules. Be patient, as I'm sure there will be a few slide offs and crashes that will back up traffic in a few areas. 

This will be a pretty snow, which should get people in the holiday spirit. In warmer valleys, temperatures might get to near or a degree or so above freezing. That might make some of the snow kind of on the wet side.  

Such temperatures would also suppress snow accumulation. Places right along Lake Champlain and right along the Connecticut River in southeast Vermont might see only two inches of snow or a little under that. 

We won't have much wind, so the snow will stick to the trees nicely. But there won't be enough snow to break branches or power lines, so we're fine there.

CHRISTMAS EVE

The snow will end in most places before dawn Wednesday, but keep going in the mountains. It'll get sort of windy for a time tomorrow morning and that will knock some but not all of the snow off the trees.  The winds won't howl up to near gale force like they have so many times this month. 

Temperatures should stay steady, mostly in the 25 to 30 degree range all day. It'll stay overcast or at least mostly cloudy all day, except in southeast parts of the state, which should get some sun. Up in the mountains, the snow will taper off through the day, leaving behind about four to eight inches on many of the state's ski slopes. 

The clouds will hang tough Christmas Eve night as temperatures fall into the teens. 

CHRISTMAS DAY

Expect no big weather events on the Big Day, but it will get colder and windier toward the end of the day. 

It'll be cloudy again, with a few snow showers around. The northern mountains could pick up a couple of inches of snow, maybe.

The clouds and snow showers will be stirred up by a pretty sharp cold front. Highs near 30 will hit early in the afternoon, then start to drop as the cold Canadian air floods in. By early Friday morning, temperatures will be in the single digits, with a few places below zero.

This will be in contrast to much of the United States,  as record high temperatures are still expected across much of the area between the Rockies and Appalachians on Christmas Day. 

FRIDAY AND BEYOND

We're still in an active pattern, so the weather will change quickly day to day. Also, since it's such a quick pattern, it's hard to forecast exactly what will happen this weekend, but we do have a general idea now. It's a bit subject to change, but here's our first attempt:

Friday looks cold, with highs only in the teens. An Alberta Clipper will zoom into the East on Friday, but current projection take it from Michigan to New Jersey. If that forecast holds, there would be little if any snow in Vermont from Friday's clipper. If it does snow, it's most likely in southern parts of the state.

Another, warmer, somewhat stronger storm might arrive Sunday. This might give us problems with mixed precipitation then, so we'll have to keep an eye on it for you. 

 

Wednesday Morning Vermont Winter Weather Update: Snow Delay Helps Morning Commute, Still A Ski Area Storm

This morning's updated National Weather Service 
snow forecast map. Biggest winners are 
the Green Mountains, as usual. Southern Green
Mountains look especially lucky in the 
snow department. Champlain Valley to
escape with just a couple inches. 

As we wake up here in Vermont this Wednesday morning, there are, as always, some changes to the forecast for the latest storm. 

First, we'll quickly clean up some updates on the frigid morning yesterday. 

It turns out the coldest spot in the Lower 48 of the United States yesterday was right here in Vermont. East Haven in the Northeast Kingdom took the honors with a low of 27 below. 

In Burlington, the low of minus 7 in   was the chilliest December temperature since 2017. Burlington has had three days this month already that have been below zero. There have only been seven years since 1884 with that many subzero days by December 9. The last time it happened was in 1989. 

TODAY'S SNOW

Here are the changes to the forecast based on new information since last evening:

Later Onset.

 The biggest and best change is the beginning of the snow is delayed. Much of this morning's commute in most of the state will be OK and better than expected. 

Some light snow was starting here a there as of 7 a.m. today, so there might be some minor issues on the roads. But the heaviest snow should come through between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m., says the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Advisory Expanded

The winter weather advisory that covered most of Vermont outside the Champlain and lower Connecticut Valley has been extended to cover far northern Vermont near the Canadian border.  That's not at all a surprise, as that area has been forecast to get quite a bit of snow with this storm for awhile now. 

People who are under the winter weather advisory can expect three to seven inches of snow by 1 a.m. Thursday. 

Valleys "Cheated"

This isn't so much a change in the forecast but rather new information to reinforce the forecast ideas the National Weather Service had yesterday.

Most of the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Valley are only going to get a couple inches of snow out of this.  Westerly winds aloft will make winds blow down the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains today. Air blowing downhill tends to dry the air out, so that creates  less snow.

Also, warmer air moving in this afternoon will make temperatures pop up to a little above freezing in those valleys. That will tend to settle the snow and maybe make whatever snow is falling mix with a raindrop or two. Finally, a push of dry air entrained into this storm will help shut off most of  the snow in the Champlain Valley later this afternoon. 

Southern Vermont Winter Storm

Another change to the forecast is the winter weather advisory in Vermont's two southernmost counties has been upgraded to a full-blown winter storm warning. I don't think that warning really applies to low elevation towns like Bennington and Brattleboro. Those communities should only see maybe a couple inches. 

But the National Weather Service office in Albany, New York, which covers those two southern counties in Vermont, - Bennington and Windham -  says enough moisture is available to dump six to 12 inches of snow today and this evening across higher elevation of the Greens, above 1,000 feet. I'm sure steep, curvy Route 9 over the hills between Bennington and Brattleboro will be exciting today. 

The southern Vermont ski areas are sharing in the bounty of snow this time, compared to their northern counterparts. 

THURSDAY AND ONWARD

Most of the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut Valley can expect not much more than flurries tomorrow, but the mountains will keep piling up the snow.

Tomorrow will be the famous upslope snows we get behind storm systems, but with a bit of a twist.

Often, the flow of wind from the west and northwest doesn't really make it over the Green Mountains easily. The air rises and the moisture in the air condenses into snow that falls on the summits and western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Tomorrow, in general, that air will of course rise up the western slopes of the Greens, but won't actually get blocked by the mountains so much. That means the moisture condensing into snow will fall on the summits and mostly east of the northern and central Green Mountains.

This mostly means the Northeast Kingdom, and towns immediately to the east of the Greens, like Stowe, might do fairly well with this. 

The weekend is looking chilly. Both Saturday and Sunday might feature scattered light snow, but the main story will be another shot of Arctic cold arriving Sunday. I'll have more on that in future updates. v

Snowy Vermont Day Has Begun, Decent Snowfall Almost Statewide

This morning's National Weather Service snow prediction
map is little changed from yesterday. Still looking at
roughly 6 to 9 inches in the southeastern half of
Vermont and somewhat lesser amounts northwest. 

 As of 6:30 this morning the snow was beginning, launching us into our snowy start to December.

For such an unpredictable type of weather system, the forecast has remained remarkably consistent for the past few days. This morning, we have only small changes in the forecast compared to last night. 

The most important one is the slightly earlier than forecast onset of snow than we originally thought. The original idea was it coming in around 7 a.m., but at least for western Vermont and New York, it was around 6 a.m. or so.

The first bits of snow were light, but it will increase in intensity, especially in the southern half of Vermont. 

As for this morning, you know the drill.  If you haven't left for school or work yet, you should, or should have built in extra time to get to where you need to go. As of 7 a.m. traffic cameras showed roads getting increasingly snow covered, pretty fast across much of the state.

Before you head out, check your local listings for school closings. There's a ton of them. 

By 7 a.m., I haven't heard much yet about cars sliding off the roads or hitting each other, but that will come soon enough today. The saving grace with this storm is the heaviest snow is coming after most people are at work.

ACCUMULATIONS

Not much has changed in terms of how much snow we'll get. The bottom line: This is a midsized snowfall, by Vermont standards. 

The new forecast map issued this morning from the National Weather Service in South Burlington only has subtle changes, compared to the one they gave us Monday afternoon. Maybe a tiny bit more than yesterday's forecast in northwestern Vermont. That reflects a predicted storm track that has nudged just a bit north from yesterday. 

The winter storm warning is still in effect for basically the southern  half of Vermont and the winter weather advisory is up for everyone except people in Franklin and Grand Isle counties. But even there, the road conditions are already going downhill.

There will be some nuances with the accumulations in the area covered by warning and advisories. Three to 10 inches of new snow is a good bet today, depending on whether you're in the warning or the advisory. 

Traffic cam grab of Exit 16, Interstate 89 in Colchester
at around 7:30 this morning. The heaviest snow
hadn't arrived yet, so road conditions weren't as
bad as they could have been. 

But there will be nuances. This type of storm tends to set up narrow southwest to northeast oriented bands of heavier snow. You can't easily tell in advance where they will set up. 

This means you might get into a situation where you'll have a Vermont town that gets 10 inches of snow, then a community just a dozen or two miles north gets four or five inches, then another town a couple dozen miles north of that second town gets eight, nine, ten inches. 

It's the luck of the draw. 

In so many recent winters, we've had these awful "wet cement" heavy snowstorms, uncharacteristic for us, really. This one is more old-fashioned. Powdery. Not light insignificant feathers, but it won't be heart-attack snow, either. 

It still looks like the wind will be fairly light with this storm, so the snow will be pretty piling up on tree branches. It is surprisingly blustery outside here in St. Albans, but that seems to be some sort of local effects. Most places in Vermont were reporting calm winds, or winds at or under 10 mph. 

ROCKET STORM

Forecasts that this storm would move wicked fast are coming true. The storm was near southeastern North Carolina early this morning and will be near Cape Cod by this evening. 

That leaves us with a short window for heavier snow. That should come roughly between 10 a.m.  and 3 p.m. today. By late this afternoon or very early evening, the storm will basically be over in the northwest half of Vermont, and it will end before midnight in extreme southeastern parts of the state.

Usually, at least light snow lingers for many hours after a storm passes Cape Cod as northeast winds throw moisture back into our neck of the woods. This storm, though, is pretty compact, so once it's over, it's pretty much over.

Still, I expect roads to be in not great shape as we go into this evening, especially in southern and eastern Vermont. 

OUTLOOK

The roughest start to winter since at least 2019 and probably before that will continue to slap us in the face as we go through the week. Tomorrow will be fairly calm, but kinda cold for this time of year, with highs in the low 30s. 

That Arctic cold front is still looming for Thursday morning with its batch of snow showers and snow squalls. We're watching the timing of this one, because the snow squalls might enter the Champlain Valley around the morning commute. We're hoping they hold off until a little later in the morning, but we don't know for sure yet

Temperatures will crash into the teens by Thursday afternoon and to near 0 by Friday morning. It'll sort of warm up over the weekend and into next week, but barely. It'll still be much colder than average for this time of year well into next week. 

I'll have more details on that after we get past this storm, but it looks like we'll have a few shots of Arctic air through mid-month at least. 

Next Round Of Vermont Winter Weather To Be Icy, Then Windy And Snowy

Freezing rain prediction map. Most places in Vermont
should get some tonight It'll be enough to make driving
dangerous but likely not enough to cause damage
to trees and power lines. Freezing rain will be
spottier in the Champlain Valley. 

 Winter in November continues with the next storm on Vermont's doorstep. It will spread ice, rain, then gusty winds and in some places, a lot of snow by tomorrow and tomorrow night.  

Some areas were getting glimpses of sun this morning. Which is great, since I haven't seen any sun since last Saturday. 

But the slightly brighter skies won't last long. Clouds will thicken up during the day and temperatures for most of us will stay in the 30s.

The main show begins this evening. A winter weather advisory is up for all of Vermont except for the Champlain Valley and western Rutland County.  It goes from 7 p.m. this evening to 7 a.m. Sunday.  . 

The problem this time will be freezing rain. 

This is following the pattern of most storms that try to bring relatively warm air up ahead of them. The mild air has a clear shot south to north up the Champlain Valley,  so it's harder to get freezing rain there. 

The trouble starts at the Green Mountains. 

The warm air near the surface often can't get over the mountains to eastern Vermont, but has no trouble blasting in above the Green Mountains, a few thousand feet over our heads. So, rain comes down through the warm air aloft, but freezes on impact in the valleys near and east of the Greens. That's tonight's scenario. 

Get used to it. This sort of thing  usually happens several times each winter.  

All that said, the Champlain Valley doesn't escape it entirely. There might be patches of ice even in that banana belt valley this evening. Temperatures will hover not far from the freezing mark, so you never know. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, it'll be annoyingly tricky. If you're brave enough to drive anywhere in or east of the Green Mountains tonight, you might find just a wet road one moment, and glare ice just 100 feet further down the highway. 

The good new is there won't be nearly enough freezing rain to cause problems with trees and power lines. 

The bulk of the freezing rain will come between early evening and before dawn.   

The storm itself will move eastward across northern New York and into northern Vermont overnight, then start to redevelop over Maine. From there, it will intensify as it heads toward southeast Canada. Which spells trouble for us Sunday through Monday.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Snow prediction map from Sunday to early Tuesday. 
Once again, the northern Green Mountains are in
for a nice dump of snow. Many northern Vermont 
low and mid elevations should get a few inches,
except for the Champlain Valley. The Lower
Connecticut River Valley misses out again. 

High temperatures for most of us will come on Sunday morning. Readings will fall all day as northwest winds really pick up. They'll gust to as high as 40 mph in many areas as temperatures slowly fall. 

Any lingering rain will turn to snow. That's set the stage for a big snowstorm for a few of us, light accumulations for most of us, and nothing at all for a few people  in the Green Mountain State.

The front end of the storm - as I mentioned above - is a classic freezing rain scenario. The back end Sunday and Sunday night is a classic upslope snowstorm. 

Moisture in those northwest winds will slam into the west slopes of the Green Mountains, meaning the air will have to go up and over those hills. Rising air squeezes the moisture out of the air, and that moisture will come down as snow. Lots of it in some spots.

The central and northern Green Mountains, already buried in snow from this past week, are in for another six to 12 inches. Maybe even more than that on a few mountain peaks.

The summit of Mount Mansfield already had 25 inches on the ground as of yesterday afternoon. That's the second most for the date. Only November 14, 1990 had more. 

Meanwhile, a lot of valleys in northern Vermont might see two to four inches of snow out of this by Monday afternoon. The Champlain Valley should see maybe an inch or less. Amounts maybe closer to two inches or a little over that could hit the northern end of the valley up toward St. Albans and Swanton. 

As is usual with this kind of scenario, the southeastern corner of Vermont down in the lower Connecticut Valley will be lucky to get flurries out of this. 

But everybody in Vermont will get to enjoy the strong, cold northwest winds through at least Monday. 

The cold will continue too. There are signs it might start to warm up toward the end of the upcoming week. We shall see!

 

Vermont Afternoon Update: Evening Rush To Be Awful Beneath NW VT Winter Weather Advisory

Updated National Weather Service snow forecast has two to
five inches coming down this evening in northwest 
Vermont. The evening commute will be awful
A little more snow should grace us tomorrow, too.

 As expected, precipitation was rapidly blossoming northward through Vermont as of 2:30 p.m. and will engulf all of the state by late this afternoon. 

Things are looking even worse than they did this morning for northwest Vermont. So, a winter weather advisory is now up for northwest Vermont - Chittenden, Franklin, Lamoille and Orleans County. 

It should start in earnest around the Champlain Valley by around 3 or 4 pm. It was already drizzling as of 2 pm. 

It should change to snow by 5 p.m. if not sooner, with an interval of mixed precipitation before then. 

A pretty good temperature contrast has set up today in Vermont. At 2 p.m., it was 34 in Burlington and 51 in St. Johnsbury. Cold air is draining southward down the Champlain Valley very readily. So it won't take much for any rain to change to ice, then snow. 

Accumulations in the winter weather advisory zone should from 2 to 5 inches, with possibly locally higher amounts near the mountains. The most snow looks like it will be in Franklin County along and east of Interstate 89, and the Green Mountains from Route 2 north. In those areas, at least 4 or 5 inches should accumulate by late tonight. 

Right around Burlington, they're going for two inches. Which doesn't seem like much, but the timing of the snow couldn't be worse, which is what makes this so "special." 

A Vermont state highway truck and driver seen at a St.
Albans service station early Monday afternoon. Probably
prepping for the impending rush hour snow burst today. 

The heaviest snow will probably come down between 5 and 8 p.m., so the drive home in the Champlain Valley and other parts of northwest Vermont is going to be awful. If you can sneak away from work right now, by 3 or 4 p.m. at the latest, that will help. 

I expect some serious traffic jams with this snow. We're not used to driving in snow, since we really haven't had any yet. (Sunday morning's snow was so minor I don't count it.) 

This will also be largely a wet snow, which is particularly slippery and tends to compact into an especially slick version of ice beneath car and truck tires. 

There are a few trees in urban areas like Burlington, Winooski and St. Albans that still have some leaves clinging to them. The wet snow collecting on the leaves, and a steady north wind makes me suspect there might be a few power outages to add to the delight this evening will become. 

In warmer parts of eastern Vermont, by the time we get a changeover to snow later this evening, the best moisture will be starting to exit. 

Snow showers will keep going tomorrow amid the forecast cold and blustery conditions, so there will be a little additional accumulation. 

If you're like me, a Franklin County resident who has not completed all his outdoor autumn garden chores, you're screwed. The snow that accumulates with this evening's mess might not fully melt away for more than a week. 

Especially since we have other chances of snow showers through the rest of the week.   Of course, I'll have updates tomorrow morning, or sooner than that if needed. 

Friday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Yes, An Update, As Forecast More Wintry Than This Morning

Snowfall mostly in southern and central Vermont looks
like it will be more widespread and a little heavier
than forecasts had indicated this morning. 

 Vermont - at least a sizable chunk of it, looks like it's going to be snowier than originally thought on Saturday. 

Winter weather advisories have been posted for basically the southern half of Vermont excluding the western parts of Addison and Rutland counties. 

Essentially a band of precipitation that I mentioned in this morning's post that we know will move south to north over Vermont will have more oomph that first thought. 

That means the snow and rain will be heavier that expected in southern Vermont and will have more staying power than originally thought as it works its way north. 

Heavier precipitation tends to cool the air, so the marginal temperatures we're expecting means some parts of southern Vermont are in for quite a bit of late season snow.

Who gets how much will depend on elevation. Valley towns in southern Vermont like Bennington, Brattleboro and Springfield will probably see about two inches of wet snow. It'll be hard for snow to accumulate in the valleys. 

It'll be snowing hard enough, but the sun angle this time of year is the same as it is in late August. Some of the heat will penetrate the clouds and melt some of the snow as it melts.

It might be a different story though in the slightly colder southern Green Mountains. Those areas could see six inches of snow in spots, or even a little more than that. Some roads will be slick across southern Vermont, especially in the morning before the sun can really come up.

Since this will be a wet and heavy snow, I wouldn't be surprised if there are a few power outages as well. 

The snow will tend to lighten up and mix with rain in southern Vermont during the afternoon. 

Meanwhile, the snow will continue to make its way further north than this morning's forecasts suggested. High elevations as far north as Stowe could see two to four inches of wet snow, while valleys away from the Champlain Valley could see a slushy coating to as much as an inch. 

There's a big caveat here. If the trends in forecasting meteorologists saw this afternoon continue on that path, central and northern Vermont could actually see a little more snow than what I'm outlining here.

This morning, I said that the northern Champlain Valley might get no rain at all. Since this push of precipitation has more oomph than expected, now it looks like it will probably rain at least a little, so Saturday won't be a nice day 

The bulk of the precipitation will hit northwest areas in the afternoon, when it's warmest. Plus, rainfall rates won't be that impressive, so folks in Burlington and St. Albans very likely won't see any kind of changeover to snow.

Unless this little stormy episode continues to surprise. 

Sunday is looking much better, as skies will start to clear, at least in western Vermont. Eastern Vermont might stay cloudy with a risk of a few light showers. At least it will be warmer, with highs near 50 east and in the 50s west.

That should start to melt Saturday's snow in a hurry.  

Saturday Evening Vermont/New England Snow Forecast Update

The updated snowstorm forecast for Sunday night. 
There's still a big bust potential with this forecast, 
and we could end up with much less or much
more than indicated here. 

Very much like this morning, there's still some questions as to how much snow will fall in Vermont and elsewhere in New England with a fast-moving nor'easter Sunday night, but the forecasts are coming into better focus. 

Before we get into that, we should recap the wind we saw in Vermont today, especially in the Champlain Valley. As of 5 p.m. that wind was dying down, after some pretty hefty gusts earlier. 

Top wind speeds reported include 56 mph at Colchester Reef, 50 mph at the Milton Sandbar and 49 mph at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. 

Luckily there were very few power outages to report as the winds did not appear quite strong enough to cause damage.

We're still expecting that cold front tonight. It's already created scattered rain and snow showers this afternoon and evening. Southwest winds aloft have prevented the Champlain Valley from really getting anything.

Temperatures will crash later tonight as the cold front comes through and the Arctic air rushes in.

THE STORM

Forecasts for this nor'easter that will race past us Sunday night have settled on a path that would take it probably just offshore of Cape Cod and Nantucket. 

That puts central New England in the golden zone for snow. A stripe of winter storm warnings for heavy snow extends from West Virginia, on through western Maryland, eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York, Connecticut and Massachusetts

The winter storm watch in Bennington and Windham counties in far southern Vermont has been upgraded to a winter storm warning. Most places under the warnings can expect six to nine inches of snow. 

A winter weather advisory goes north into Rutland, Windsor and Orange counties, where three to seven inches of snow are anticipated.

Totals are still expected to taper off pretty quickly as you head northwest. It looks like the Champlain Valley might only see an inch or two of snow.

Maybe. 

The above forecast is as it stood as of Saturday evening. There's still a ton of wiggle room in this prediction. A slight shift in the storm's path will upend this forecast. That's because there will be a sharp cutoff on the northwestward edge of the storm between heavy snow and basically flurries. 

The storm could still nudge itself a little further northwestward than expected. If that happens, most of Vermont could really get a decent dump. On the other hand, a slight shift further southeastward than expected might leave most of the Green Mountain State without much snow at all.

Whatever happens, it will be pretty cold while it's snowing. Temperatures will fall into the single numbers or at best, lower teens. That'll leave us with really fluffy snow, if it snows where you are. 

This will be a brief snowfall because the storm will be racing by so quickly. It'll start in southern Vermont late Sunday afternoon and the evening elsewhere. It's scheduled to end before dawn Monday. 

Plan on difficult travel Sunday night, especially the further south and east you go. The snowplows will clear most of the snow off the road pretty quickly, but it'll be too cold for salt to work. Which means icy roads will linger on roads and highways well into the Monday morning commute.

One part of the forecast that has stayed firm is the anticipated frigid weather. We'll have highs in the single numbers to low teens Monday through Wednesday, with below zero readings at night. Breezes will introduce a bitter wind chill to this mess. 

Vermont Gets Flurried To Death, Tons Of Snow In Northern Mountains Results

The latest National Weather Service snow forecast map.
Parts of the northern Green Mountains should continue
to pile up the snow, while low elevations in
southern Vermont continue with their snow drought.

 This is one of those winter periods we have so often in Vermont in which nor'easters and big dumps of snow completely pass us by. 

But some of us get our share of snow, anyway, in the form of sporadic snow showers, light snow and random snowflakes in the cold, damp northwest winds of winter. 

Basically, Vermont gets flurried to death. 

The long siege of snow flurries in Vermont that started last Thursday and will pretty much continue all this week is one of the most impressive I've seen. 

It's true that this type of regime brings big snow winners and snow losers.  Deep valleys miss out, while the central and northern Green Mountains practically drown in powder. That type of situation is writ large this week.

Our latest installment of this phenomenon has been going on since last Thursday and will continue pretty much the rest of this week.

Under this regime, valleys don't get all that much snow, but eventually, he ground whitens even there. The mountains, get creamed, though. 

So far, since Thursday. Westfield, Vermont has received a little over two feet of snow. Montgomery has had nearly a foot and a half. Jay Peak, which always does best in this type of situation, has had three feet of snow in the past week. 

Meanwhile, it pretty much didn't snow at all in the Champlain Valley until Saturday and Sunday. The wind shifted and relaxed a little, so the snow didn't bypass the valley. And Lake Champlain offered its second installment of lake effect snow this winter. 

Deepest new snow on Sunday morning included 4.7 inches in Shelburne, 4.6 inches in Huntington and 4.2 inches in Charlotte.

ANOTHER SNOW BLITZ COMING

We get a break from the snow today, as a little bit of high pressure from the west is interfering with the cold, wet north flow of air. 

But that snowy northwest wind is about to re-establish itself big time for parts of Vermont for the rest of the week.  Some of the snow totals we'll hear about by the end of the week will be impressive, but those big totals will probably be limited to the central and northern Green Mountains. 

This will be  enough that the National Weather Service has issued a long-lasting winter weather advisory from a little after midnight Tuesday morning to at least Wednesday evening for the northern Green Mountains of Vermont and parts of the Adirondacks and other sections of northern New York.

That snow will probably keep falling beyond Wednesday. 

The snowfall in the advisory zone will probably never fall all that heavily, but the persistence is what will pile up the fluff. 

If you're near the Green Mountains in northern Vermont, you can generally expected a good three to eight inches of snow, with locally higher amounts. If you're way up high, near the summits, at elevations of 2,000 feet or more, expect one to two feet of snow by Friday. 

A note that all of Franklin County, Vermont is under the advisory, but sections of the county closest to Lake Champlain probably won't receive a boatload of snow. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says the heavier snow will probably be east of a line from Fairfax to Highgate.

Much of Vermont will receive a little snow, it'll be a dusting to a couple inches.  Parts of the southern Champlain Valley, low elevations in western Rutland County and lower Connecticut Valley might not get any snow at all, or if they do, just a few occasional lonely snowflakes. 

By the time you get down to places like Springfield and Brattleboro this week, the sun will be out much of the day during this whole thing. 

Everyone will be windy and cold during this whole week, though.   Winds will gust to 30 to 35 mph, Tuesday, Wednesday and probably Thursday. High temperatures will only be in the teens to around 20, so wind chills are going to be a problem.

Where there's a bunch of snow, blowing snow is going to be a big problem. The snow that falls will be very light and fluffy, which means the wind will pick it up easily. Expect some big drifts on some of the roads exposed to the wind, whiteout conditions at times, and lift holds at the some of the ski areas due to the gusts. 

Toward the end of the week and early next weekend, those of us who will have gotten snow will see it tapering off. Temperatures will moderate a bit, getting up into the 20s, which actually is fairly comfortable for this time of year. 

Thursday Evening Vermont Ice Update: A Little Colder, A Little Icier

Compared to forecasts we saw this morning, expected ice
accumulations depicted in this map released by the 
National Weather Service office in South Burlington 
have increased. Red areas should expect at least
a quarter inch of ice. 

 The forecast for the new round of ice, freezing rain, rain and general ick for tonight and tomorrow across Vermont and surrounding areas has gotten a little worse, I'm afraid. 

Settle in, folks, this is impossible to explain in 100 words or less, so here we go:

Cold air is being stubborn across northern and eastern Vermont, and that, I think, will make the ice a little more widespread than earlier forecasts. Not everyone will get freezing rain, but everyone will need to be on their toes.

Even in the Champlain Valley and southwestern Vermont, which I thought earlier would be mostly safe from any ice. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington has hoisted a winter weather advisory for all of Vermont for ice, and a little snow in spots. The advisory runs from early Friday morning until 7 p.m. or so Friday evening. 

However, some of the fun begins even before the real precipitation and ice arrive in the wee hours Friday morning. 

Cold air has been draining into the northern Champlain Valley all day. It stayed at or below freezing here in St. Albans all day amid a dense fog. Interestingly, Burlington was a little above freezing all day, but dipped to 32 degrees at 4 p.m.  

Elsewhere, most of Vermont was a little above freezing this afternoon.

We will see problems with dense fog in some areas this evening. Also, patchy freezing drizzle will make road conditions a little dicey and unpredictable in spots.  This includes areas of Vermont outside the chilly Champlain Valley, as temperatures dip slightly through the evening hours. 

FRIDAY

As the next in the series of modest but rather wet storms approaches tonight, east breezes on its northern flank looks like it wants to tug in some slightly colder air in the lower levels of the atmosphere from high pressure parked north of Maine.

This would make freezing rain more likely. 

Water droplets remained frozen solid to tree branches all
day in St. Albans, Vermont amid dense, cold fog.

The fun will start before dawn and continue through the morning commute hours. So the timing stinks. I still expect some school closings, or more likely school opening delays on Friday. 

Like the last round we had late Wednesday and early today and despite the current chill, the Champlain Valley looks marginal for rain vs. freezing rain Friday.

 I imagine it'll be patchy, with some areas fine, others icy. And temperatures there, and in some other parts of Vermont will probably fluctuate near the freezing mark during the precipitation all day Friday. 

Remember, even if it's a little above freezing, ice could still form on driveways, back roads, overpasses and deeper valleys. 

Areas from the Green Mountains east are much more likely to see freezing rain instead of rain, but even there, it might be patchy. 

Also, with temperatures so close to turning things icy, there's tremendous bust potential in the forecasts. It's possible we end up with quite a bit more ice than forecast, or quite a bit less. 

So it'll be a crap shoot as to who gets icy, who stays wet.  Just assume if you need to drive to work or school tomorrow chances are you'll encounter ice somewhere. 

At least for awhile.

IT'S COMPLICATED 

That cold air being pulled in from the east by this storm will gradually take up a thicker and thicker layer of the atmosphere. So during the day, rain or freezing rain will slowly mix with and change to a little sleet and some wet snow

That changeover process will start in the Northeast Kingdom in the morning, then spread west and somewhat south during the day. 

This is actually good news for parts of northern Vermont because it would cut down on the amount of freezing rain that will fall.  If this pans out as expected, there won't be much snow, even in the Northeast Kingdom. Up there, it'll probably amount to one to three inches. 

I'm not even sure the snow will reach the Champlain Valley. If it does, it won't amount to much.  Central Vermont will probably see an inch or less of snow.

Southern and central Vermont is least likely to see snow and sleet. Which means - if Thursday evening forecasts are correct - some areas in and near the Green Mountains from about Sugarbush south could see a good quarter inch of new ice from the freezing rain. 

Especially in spots where any ice didn't really melt today, this puts the risk of scattered power outages in play. Remember, in most ice storms, power outages begin at least on a limited basis if there's a least a quarter inch of ice. 

I still don't expect widespread power outages, but I do think there will be a few problems. 

BEYOND FRIDAY

We still have a lot of question marks about the weekend. 

Saturday looks gray, overcast, gloomy and mild. We could see some patchy wet snow here and there, but it won't amount to much. 

On Sunday, Vermont gets caught in a squeeze play.  Some colder air from Canada wants to push southward into our neck of the woods. Meanwhile, the last of a series of storms will head northeastward out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Will that storm come far enough north to give us snow later Sunday into Monday? Or will that push of cold, dry air from the north shove that storm southward and out of our hair?

It's a tossup.

At this point, southern Vermont looks most likely to see snow, with chances dwindling the further north you go.   The good news is if the Sunday/Sunday night storm comes far enough north to bother Vermont, it'll give us snow, and not freezing rain. 

Remarkably, unless there's a big surprise, it still looks like there are no subzero blasts of Arctic air in the forecast at least into early February. 

This winter's reputation continues: Not cold at all, but gawd, the weather has still been awful. 

Today's Vermont Snow On Schedule; Still Looking At A Decent Powder Dump

Forecast hasn't changed much for today. A general four
to six inch dump of powder by this evening. 

Right on schedule, snow was spreading north to south across Vermont as of 8 a.m. and it will cover the entire state by late morning. 

In places in the north where it wasn't snowing, it was trying to. Snow was falling from the clouds, but encountering dry air on the way down and evaporating.

This is what usually happens at the start of a snowfall. The evaporating snow moistens the air, and the snowflakes gradually make it further and further down as the atmosphere gets more humid, until finally the snow reaches the ground on valley floors.  

That's why you see the tops of the mountains get blurry first when it's about to snow, and that blurriness slowly descends down the slopes until it's snowing where you're standing.

The forecast hasn't changed much since last night, with pretty much all of Vermont getting a pretty uniform coating of four to six inches of powder. The heaviest snow will come between about noon and 6 p.m.

The afternoon commute home will be tricky with snow covered roads. The snowplows and salt shakers will surely be out helping. Just take it slow and try to avoid those few idiots on the highways that mess things up for everybody. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington in their forecast discussion offered up the following tidbit: 

The snow consistency will be powdery, of course. Accumulations will be a little deeper than forecast if we don't get a lot of wind in the atmosphere. That will create big flakes that make a very fluffy accumulation of say, six inches, which would pack down to three inches within  couple days.

On the other hand, if there is more wind up above us, some of those big snowflakes would get torn apart into fragments. That will lead to a slightly lower accumulation, but that snow on the ground would be a little more dense. 

But in any event, it will be a nice powder to enjoy if you like winter sports. 

Today's storm will contain no mix or rain. No strong winds. No power outages.  Finally! A storm that will do Vermont more good than harm. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's still appears this will by far be Vermont's coldest week so far this winter. 

Which isn't saying much. 

Temperatures will continue a decline, so that by Friday and Saturday. highs will be in the upper single numbers to low teens and lows will bottom out within a few degrees either side of zero.

That's pretty tame when you consider record lows this time of year even in the banana belt Champlain Valley are in the minus 20s this time of year. 

There will be patches of light snow and flurries around Vermont Wednesday through Saturday, especially in the northern Green Mountains, but it won't amount to much. 

A warming trend starts Monday, but I don't know whether that will get cut off at the pass.  A surge of warm air will be crossing the nation and could give us well above normal temperatures next week.

But some weather models bring a cold front down from Canada, and a passing Arctic  high pressure system in Quebec could keep us on the cold side. Or delay a warmup by a couple days. 

Flip a coin on that one, it's the best we can do for such an extended forecast. 

Surprise! Decent Vermont Snowfall Now In the Cards For Tuesday

Unlike most storms, the National Weather Service office
in South Burlington is predicting pretty uniform snow
totals Tuesday in Vermont. If this forecast pans out,
almost all of us will see somewhere between four
and six inches of fresh powder on Tuesday.

 Well, that escalated today!

A winter weather advisory is now in effect for all of Vermont Tuesday. What had been expected to be a very light snowfall has turned into a decent, moderate sized hit.  

Predicted accumulations are pretty uniform throughout the state with most of us probably in for four to six inches of powder.

A coastal storm that was expected to miss us by a wide margin is now expected to track a little closer to the New England coast, enabling it to join forces with a disturbance coming in from the west. The result?  A not-spectacular snowstorm but decent dump for us. 

It'll be a big help for winter sports in the state. Especially for snowmobiles, snow shoeing and cross country skiing in low elevations that don't have that much snow. 

For a change, the snow is showing no signs that it will want to mix with anything. It'll just be a powdery snow all day Tuesday, as temperatures hold in the 20s. 

It'll probably start snowing lightly in Vermont during the early to mid morning, and peak in the afternoon with a period of moderate snow. 

Road conditions won't be great. There should be a little snow on the roads for the morning commute and even more in the evening. 

There won't be a lot of wind with this thing, and as I said, the snow will be powdery. That means we don't have to worry about another round of power outages this time. 

Unlike the pleasant snowstorm we had on January 7, this snow will stick around for a little while anyway. The January 7 snow melted or got crushed into miserable slush and ice on January 10 when we got hit by the first of two big, destructive windstorms.

This time, it will stay cold for days. In fact, Friday and Saturday still look very cold. By very cold I mean many of us will be below zero at night, highs will only be in the single numbers and teens, and wind chills could be well below zero.   

This being the winter of 2023-24 the delightful new snow cover won't last forever. Longer range forecasts are trending stronger and stronger toward another extended heat wave that would probably start about a week from tomorrow.   

By the way, there's always last minute adjustments to every storm, so I'm sure there will be changes to the forecast when we wake up tomorrow morning. 

Vermont Forecast Still Schmutzy For Tonight, Wednesday Morning

Our familiar National Weather Service/South Burlington
snow prediction map has most of the accumulation
along and east of the Green Mountains tonight
and early Wednesday.

Vermont is still on for weather designed by Sasha Royale Paine Diaz (sound it out) tonight and early Wednesday. 

The good news is it looks like many of us will be at least mostly out of the woods by mid to late morning Wednesday, so people who need to can get on with their travel plans 

It does look like the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains from at least Warren south to the Massachusetts border are in for a White Thanksgiving. 

Those areas can expect three to locally as much as six inches of snow tonight and very early Wednesday before things change over to a cold rain before tapering off. 

Most Vermont ski areas should get a few inches of new natural powder. If I had to pick a ski area that will get the most snow, I'd guess Okemo, near Ludlow. 

The strip along Route 7 from Bennington all the way up to Swanton looks to get off fairly lightly. Those lower elevation areas, including the Champlain Valley can expect a burst of snow tonight, followed by a little mix after midnight and hopefully just plain rain by or even a little before dawn. 

THE SET UP

As expected, this morning was cold. Vermont's first zero degree temperature of the season popped up before dawn today in perennial cold spot Island Pond, in the Northeast Kingdom.  That kind of temperature there isn't all that weird for the third week of November.

Most of the rest of us were in the teens, with colder towns in the single numbers. The low in Burlington was 18 degrees not odd for Thanksgiving week but still the chilliest temperature since March 12. Winter is at least sort of here, for sure. 

We had a rare bit of sun Monday afternoon and today is starting off crystal clear. But satellite images show clouds on our doorstep, and the sun will fade behind those clouds later this morning and afternoon.

Timing wise, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington has snow starting between 8 and 10 p.m. this evening south and west of Interstate 89, and by midnight for most of the rest of the state.

Road conditions will deteriorate pretty quickly in the hours before midnight. So if you're driving somewhere today, try to get there by 8 p.m. at the latest. 

WEDNESDAY

As noted, the "luckiest" people in Vermont will be those in low elevations west of the Green Mountains. There, only an inch or two of snow will fall, and at this point, it looks like temperatures will be above freezing with rain by 6 a.m. That bodes well for the morning commute, though there still will be slush and icy patches to watch out for. 

Also, be careful as conditions can unexpectedly change. There's always the chance the warmer air could be delayed, making a mess of things even in the Champlain Valley. 

Along and east of the Green Mountains, snow and mixed precipitation should continue at least into mid-morning Wednesday.  Travel will be difficult and annoying, and not really recommended in those areas. If you delay your trip some until, say noon, you'll be much better off and less stressed. 

By the way, wind, rain and visibility problems will probably cause at least a few flight delays in the Northeast Wednesday, so check your airline to see if you're actually taking off when you're supposed to. 

Rain and lingering mixed precipitation in the mountains will slowly taper off Wednesday afternoon and evening. 

Thanksgiving's weather is actually the pick of the week. Of course it's November, so you can't expect much. Still, we'll have hints of sun and seasonable afternoon temperatures in the 37 to 45 degree range, so that's not bad. 

The weekend is looking rather quiet and chilly at this point. 

Winter Weather Arrived In Vermont As Expected. Roads Lousy

Just as predicted, I woke up to about an inch of new
snow in St. Albans, Vermont. So did most of the
rest of the state. Slick roads this morning!

 Just as expected, a burst of snow swept into most of Vermont early this morning. 

At dawn, or around 6:30 a.m. it appeared it was snowing everywhere except some of the valleys of far southern Vermont, where a cold rain was falling. The winter weather advisory is accurate, so you'll need to deal with icky weather this morning for sure. 

Mixed precipitation in New York State was spreading rapidly toward Vermont, so expect some sleet and freezing rain. 

As of 7 a.m. roads  pretty much everywhere were slick, judging from Vermont Agency of Transportation traffic cameras. Road crews are out. I hear them everywhere around my place in St. Albans. As expected, bridges and overpasses looked the worst. That said, there was black ice most anywhere on the roads

Reports of crashes are piling up across Vermont. Interstate 89 southbound in Georgia was closed for a time due to crashes. At last report at 7 a.m., one lane had re-opened. Expect more delays on the roads through this morning. 

You will need to leave early to get to work on time, and you will need to take it easy. 

I also see a lot of schools in and around Vermont have delayed openings, and a few are closed today. You'll want to check with your local districts to see what's going on for you. 

These delayed openings are a good idea, as conditions should start to improve as the morning goes along. 

Radar from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington as of 6:30 a.m. showed the steady snow would soon transition to showery stuff. As the morning wears on, sometimes it will be snowing, sleeting, or raining, with some ice, other times it won't be doing anything at all.

Periods of freezing rain are still a threat  through this morning. Some places, especially in the Champlain Valley might make a clean change from snow to rain without bothering with the ice. Other areas are in for up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain.  

These breaks in the precipitation coming in are good, because it might allow road crews to really get on top of everything.  Temperatures are starting to go up, so the Champlain Valley should be above freezing my mid morning. Those above freezing temperatures should spread through the rest of Vermont during the late morning and early afternoon. 

Until then, watch out on those roads. And underfoot with that fresh dusting of snow and ice. 

The winter weather advisory is set to expire at 1 p.m. today. 

That's not to say the rest of the day will be nice. Far from it. It will stay cloudy, and winds will pick up from the south.  We'll still be dealing with light showers of cold rain, snow, and maybe sleet most of the day.

High temperatures today will come later than usual, probably after sunset. By then, it should be near 40 degrees. So not exactly toasty. 

Gusts will reach 35 mph or even a little more in some spots. Normally a tenth of an inch of ice on trees and wires isn't anything to worry about. But if the ice remains when the wind picks up, that could be enough to cause a few isolated power outages later this morning and early afternoon.

By the way, winds will be particularly strong on Lake Champlain. Duck hunters take note: This is NOT the day to go out on Lake Champlain.  Wave heights could reach five or six feet during the peak of the winds early this afternoon. Tomorrow will be better, I promise. 

LOOKING AHEAD

After our early taste of winter, things should definitely quiet down for the next few days. Friday features clouds and a few showers. It will be the warmest day we'll have for a little while, with highs in the mid 40s.

Cold, quiet weather should last through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. That means highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s, with teens in the cold spots. It'll turn a little warmer by mid week. 

Very little, if any snow or rain is in the forecast Saturday through Wednesday. 

Wednesday Evening Wintry Update: Vermont Thursday Morning Commute Still Looks Icky

Much to my husband's chagrin (He doesn't want to deal with
winter) I set out our snow shovel on our deck in anticipation
of a messy snow/sleet/ice event Thursday morning. 

 Winter weather advisories continue in Vermont for at least the first half of Thursday as the first "wonderful" mixed precipitation event of the season arrives in the Green Mountain State.  

We're still looking a quick pre-dawn burst of snow crossing the state from southwest to northeast, mostly just before or around dawn. We're still probably in for an inch or so of snow, give or take, but it will quickly transition to sleet and freezing rain. 

As mentioned this morning, that's just in time for tomorrow's morning commute. So it will be a mess. The scenario I outlined this morning still looks likely.  In many areas, relatively warm ground temperatures will keep many main roads just wet or slushy. But certain cold spots and definitely bridges and overpasses will ice over. 

That will surprise people driving along at full speed, only to encounter icy bridges and get into a mess. If you want an illustration of how this works, click on this link for a video of wet "safe" roads and icy bridges causing several pileups in Wisconsin on November 1. 

As always in these mixed precipitation events, results may vary.  It will either be a little worse or a little better than current forecasts. Plus, things will be very different from one town to another. The eventual transition to a non-freezing cold rain or drizzle might be quick in some spots, especially in some parts of the Champlain Valley.

But the freezing schmutz could last longer in some areas. You never know exactly where, so take care on the roads, 

Bottom line: It still looks like you'll need to plan extra time to get to your destination if you have to go anywhere tomorrow morning. The Interstate 89 corridor in Vermont might be a particular mess. That's because that's basically the main highway in the major population and employment areas of the state. And there are few alternative routes.

One crash can gum up a long stretch of the Interstate. 

Increasing cloudiness Wednesday afternoon over St. Albans,
Vermont in advance of tomorrow's messy mixed
precipitation morning commute.

So bosses: If your employees show up late to work and they blame the weather, cut them some slack. 

I still suspect there might be some school closures or opening delays, so check in the morning to see if your kid is lucky enough to get out of Thursday's math test. 

We're still looking at it warming up just enough Thursday afternoon to lose the ice but still have an absolutely miserable day, typical of November. 

Temperatures will barely make it to 40 in the warmer spots. Overcast, light rain and drizzle will be absolutely, ahem, lovely in the afternoon. Gusts to 35 mph or so, especially in the Champlain Valley, will add to the chill. 

After this fun little episode, the weather looks like it will go quiet again.  We won't have gorgeous weather. In fact, it will be a little colder than normal through the weekend. 

There are signs that next week might be a little warmer. Not spectacularly so, but enough to feel a little better than Thursday will. 

Vermont's First Winter Weather Advisory Of Season As Thursday Morning Looks Gross

A winter weather advisory is up for Vermont Thursday due
to expected snow and mixed precipitation, especially
during the morning commute 

 It doesn't take much snow or ice to turn the roads awful in Vermont. That's especially true early in the season when we're not used to it. And some people haven't gotten their snow tires yet. 

So it is Thursday, when we will be under a winter weather advisory in the Green Mountain State for snow and some sleet and freezing rain. 

This won't be a huge storm, but the timing is lousy.  Snow should move in before dawn and continue into the morning commute hours. (The snow might start a little later in the Northeast Kingdom).

During that commute. there's a good chance the snow will mix with or change to sleet, freezing rain and eventually rain. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington notes this morning there's some disagreement in the computer models about how much of this will be sleet and freezing rain. Some suggest it will be mostly a snow to rain transition, especially in the Champlain Valley, so there wouldn't be too much freezing rain there. 

Other models lean toward more mixed precipitation statewide, and those models at this point seem to be making more sense to most meteorologists out there. To be on the safe side, expect at least some ice after a quick burst of snow early tomorrow morning. 

The bottom line seems to indicate an inch or less of snow, followed by perhaps a tenth of an inch of ice. Some places could get as much as nearly a quarter inch of ice, other places will get only a trace.  

And so, expect a lot of icy patches at least on the roads early Thursday.  This will be an especially dangerous morning as a lot of motorists will be lulled into a false sense of security.  In many areas, ground temperatures are warm, so many main roads might be largely just wet or a little slushy. 

But bridges and overpasses will freeze. People will be cruising along on wet pavement at top speed, only to arrive on an icy overpass and lose control. 

Keep in mind some schools might close or have delayed openings, so check on that before you leave with the kiddos in the morning. 

The schmutz will change to a cold, light rain, first in the Champlain Valley then spreading eastward through the rest of Vermont during the afternoon. The evening commute will be a lot safer than the morning. But it will be an ugly, miserable day for sure. 

From an overall climate perspective, this type of storm isn't at all unusual for this time of year. It happens a lot in early to mid November, but the first messy storm of the season always still comes as a little bit of a shock. 

The trend will be toward colder than normal temperatures through the weekend, but very little snow or rain after tomorrow.