Late Wednesday Afternoon Update: Severe Storm Watch Western Vermont Until 11 PM; Heat To Intensify Tomorrow

National Weather Service radar showed severe storms
near Massena, New York at 5:45 p.m today. More storms
were lurking in the general area of Ottawa, If those
storms hold together or new ones form, they could
create damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch
is in effect for western Vermont until 11 pm 

 A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for western Vermont and New York until 11 pm, tonight. 

In Vermont, the watch covers basically everywhere west of the Green Mountains.

There's been a nasty cluster of storms in southeast Ontario and extreme southwest Quebec much of this afternoon. 

By late afternoon, they were starting to move east and southeast. It's unclear how far east they'll make it. But there's enough of a threat to trigger the storm watch. 

As of 5:30 p.m., it looks dark looking northwest from Vermont's Champlain Valley. That didn't represent an immediate threat. It was the anvil top and shadow of the severe storms near Massena, New York that were making things darker.  However, in this hot, humid environments, storms could form under this anvil, and become severe. If they don't, the anvil will just produce at most light rain. 

The storms near and approaching New York's St. Lawrence Valley could eventually make it to the Champlain Valley with powerful winds later this evening. Not a guarantee yet, but keep your eyes out!  

Judging from satellite photos, it loos storm well up into Ontario,  which is where the storms ar coming from So it could be a rather stormy night here in Vermont if they hold together. 

The heat today didn't quite make it to forecast levels, at least in the Champlain Valley. Preliminary data indicates Burlington made it to 93 degrees, which was three degrees cooler than forecast. 

That doesn't necessarily mean tomorrow will be cooler than forecast. But I did notice the National Weather Service back away slightly from that previous forecast of 100 degrees. 

Have a way to get weather warnings this evening and tonight, just in case. You might want to turn off your "Do Not Disturb" feature on your phone so you can get warnings if they are issued overnight. 

Stay cool, my friends! 

Vermont June In Vermont Was Wet And Warm, Stormy And Sunny

The highlight of Vermont's warm, wet June was a pair
of tornadoes that hit the state on June 18. This is a
photo of tree damage in Woodstock from 
one of the tornadoes, 

The numbers are in for what the climate was like in June, and as you'd expect, almost all of us experienced  a warm and wet June. 

In Burlington it was both the 15th warmest and 15th wettest June out of the past 135 years or so. The actual mean temperature in Burlington for June was 69.1 degrees.

That came in at only 1.6 degrees above normal, which you'd think wouldn't qualify the month at being 15th warmest.  But, as I remind you practically every month, this is the "new normal." It's based on the average of 1990 to 2020 when climate change had already made things around here warmer than the 20th century average. 

I imagine in several decades, the month we just had would be considered chilly 

The pattern in Burlington was repeated across the state, except the extreme southwest, where average temperatures for June, 2026 were close to average. 

However, most other weather stations that I checked were roughly between one and two degrees warmer than average.

Much of the state was wet, too. Burlington's 5.56 inches was 1.4 inches above average. As we get into the summer months, precipitation around the state gets much more variable. And so it was in June. Montpelier June total was 4.26 inches, just a few hundredths of an inch above normal.

It was both a pleasant month, as we got our fair share of sunny, comfortable days. But it was also stormy.  The highlight were the two tornadoes that hit Vermont on June 18. One was in a remote part of Lincoln, but the other was in a fairly busy spot along Route 4 in Woodstock. Given that the Woodstock tornado had wind speeds up to 100 mph, it's a very pleasant surprise that motorists along Route 4 or in nearby buildings weren't hurt. 

Other events included a supercell that caused damage in northwest and central Rutland County on June 26.

Also, on June 11, some flash flooding with road damage was reported in Hardwick and Wolcott.

For July, we already know it's starting out wicked hot, so it seems chances are it will be a hot July. NOAA is leaning just slightly toward giving us a warmer than normal July here in Vermont. If that's right, maybe soe cool weather late in the month will offset the current terrible heat. It's worth dreaming. 

NOAA also is slightly leaning toward a wetter than average July. We shall see!

Potentially Historic Vermont Heat Wave Now Underway. But We Escaped Severe Weather - So Far

Since it's so hot, let's do winter scenes. This is in
Burlington, Vermont's Intervale in December, 2023

Well, the bright side is Vermont missed out on the severe thunderstorms last night. We were worried some intense storms would roll down on us from Ontario and Quebec. They missed Vermont and went mostly through central New York yesterday and last night. 

They just missed the southwest corner of Vermont. Instead, we got a few non-severe showers and storms. 

But, I'm burying the lede of course. The hot weather is here, and it could be historic. (No. "lede" is not spelled incorrectly. It's journalism speak for the first sentence of an article). 

And that first sentence is hot. Burlington is now forecast to reach 100 degrees tomorrow. If that happens, it will only be the fifth time since the late 1800s that has happened. 

The clouds and showers yesterday held temperatures down. The humidity certainly soared, but the relatively coolness of last evening means we haven't really felt the effects of the heat. 

Until this morning. Temperatures are rocketing up and it should be miserable by afternoon. Here's the usual daily forecast rundown for this very unusual hot weather

TODAY

We start the day with a lot of sun, so now the the heat dome is in place, temperatures should rocket up. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a high of 96 in Burlington today, which would tie the record set in 1911 and 2018.

It'll be in the 90s pretty much everywhere in Vermont today. That extreme heat warning stays in effect through Friday evening for the Champlain Valley, lowlands of southwest Vermont and the lower Connecticut River Valley. Those areas can expect heat indexes today, tomorrow and Friday to reach 105 degrees or even a little more. 

The rest of Vermont is under a heat advisory. That's because those areas might not quite meet the criteria  for an extreme heat warning as the heat index there would be a little under 105 degrees.

It doesn't really matter whether you're under an extreme heat warning or a heat advisory. It'll be very dangerous to do physical work outside today. And now's the time to start keeping tabs on heat-vulnerable people to make sure they're OK. 

The tired saying, "It's not the heat, it's the humidity" is partially true. It's the heat and the humidity. The dew point, a measure of how humid it feels, should be in the mid-70s in much of Vermont today. That's incredibly muggy and about as steamy as it could possibly get in Vermont. 

The next question is thunderstorms. I did see more of them lurking way up to the northwest of Montreal this morning. Those could come down and cause some trouble today. The heat and humidity could also cause sudden pop up storms around Vermont. I already saw a couple little ones appear out of nowhere a little after 8 a.m. today in northern New York. 

The glimmer of good news is if any form by afternoon, they might keep temperatures from rising quite as high as the forecasts indicate. 

The bad news is with all this heat and humidity around, something that starts as a small shower could blossom into a big, bad thunderstorm with damaging winds and torrential downpours almost within minutes. 

Keep your eye to the sky today, hopefully through a window in an air conditioned building. By the way, during heat waves like this, the threat of strong storms overnight doesn't go away like it usually does.  Big bad storms will be less likely tonight, but still possible. 

TOMORROW

The heat peaks. As noted, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 100 in Burlington tomorrow. The all time record high in Burlington is 101 degrees on August 11, 1944. It's been 100 degrees on July 3, 1911, June 19, 1995 and July 14, 1995. (Yeah, 1995 was a damn hot summer).

The all time hottest temperature in Vermont is an oldie, 105 degrees in Vernon, July 4, 1911.  I've been thinking that record is vulnerable in this age of climate change. I think a new statewide record will be established within the next few years. I don't think this heat wave will be the one to do it, but you never know. 

Still, the fact that tomorrow might well be Vermont's hottest day in 31 years is pretty impressive. 

Since the extreme heat and humidity will still be around, we do have to watch the possibility of strong or severe thunderstorms again. Like today, they will be hit and miss, but if you get hit by one, you'll know it. 

FRIDAY

It turns colder! The expected high in Burlington is 96 degrees. Yeah, still miserable. It'll get into the 90s across almost all the state again and the humidity will remain ridiculous. The effects of heat waves are cumulative We'll be in the third day of it by Friday, so those who are vulnerable to the heat will be really suffering by then .

If you know anyone without air conditioning who is elderly or has health problems, for gawd's sake check on them. And continue to "kidnap" them and bring them to fun, but air conditioned places. 

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

The heat wave ends, sort of, with a whimper. Starting Saturday or Sunday and continuing through the first half of next week afternoon highs will stop reaching the 90s and instead get well into the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. It will still be kind of humid. 

Since we all will have gone through a big, big heat wave, the moderately hot and fairly humid air will still have an effect on us. Continue making sure people are OK, because even typical summer weather can cause trouble after an intense heat wave 

As far as rain and storms go, forecasts beyond Saturday are all over the place, so flip a coin or something. We'll know more as we get closer to the weekend and next week. 

 

Q and A: Everything You Need To Know About This Big Heat Wave

AccuWeather released this map of the expected
maximum heat index temperature in the coming
days. 

Well, it's on. The Big American Heat Wave of 2026 is on in the Midwest and East. Maybe it will be one of several big ones this summer, maybe not. There's already been a bunch of hot weather elsewhere in the U.S. off and on. 

This one is getting a lot of attention across the nation, including here in Vermont. Following are answers to some FAQs about this heat wave. 

We get hot spells every summer. What makes this one so special?

True, there's big hot spells every year. But they are tending to generally get worse over the years as climate change continues. This particular one is getting extra attention because it's affecting so many people. At least 250 million people are under heat warnings or advisories at last check, according to AccuWeather. 

The heat is hitting the major media center in the East, so that captures the attention of news directors much more readily than something that might happen in the Plains or Rocky Mountains. It's also hitting during the Fourth of July weekend, when more people will be out and about, celebrating the holiday. 

Will this be the nation's worst heat wave ever, like the one recently in Europ?.

No, but it will be pretty bad. The European heat wave shattered all-time record highs in numerous cities and several countries in western and central Europe. 

This one in America will set records, but probably few if any all time records. Still, the forecasting heat is impressive. Dozens of daily record highs are threatened from Maine and Vermont south to North Carolina and west to Illinois. New York City is expecting its first 100 degree day in a decade. Highs in the 100s will extend fron New England to the Carolinas and through large swaths of the Midwest,

Many cities including some here in Vermont, might also have record high low temperatures, meaning those without air conditioning get little relief from the heat. 

Fourth Of July and the heat. Tell me why people are worried about that

Many people are out of their air conditioned homes and offices enjoying the holiday celebrations. They're out in the hot sun, not drinking enough liquids, drinking alcohol, generally not paying attention to their bodies. It's a recipe for heat stroke or heat related injuries. Also, when you're overheated, you aren't paying attention as much as you should, leading to the risk of injuries. With fireworks involved, this could mean some missing fingers or worse

OK, But I'm up here in Vermont, shouldn't we be immune from this kind of heat?

Often, we are. We're right next to Canada, after all, so it's easy for cold fronts to sweep in and keep the extreme heat and humidity in Florida and Louisiana, where it belongs. 

This time, the heat dome setting up in the East is sending Florida air all the way to Vermont. The air in terms of temperature will be as bad or worse than in Miami for at least a couple days.  The heat might taper off a bit toward the weekend and early next week, but not entirely go away. 

 OK, but how do I get used to this particular heat wave?

If you have air conditioning, use it, especially at night, despite the expense. A long heat wave lasting a few to several days can wear you out, leading to heat illnesses and other ailments. If you must work or exercise outdoors, do it at the crack of dawn when it is relatively cooler, compared to the rest of the day. 

Keep your fluid intake going all day.  Drink plenty of water, but not just water. Consume energy drinks, juices, watermelon, cucumbers, anything, "wet"  Have a nice "cold supper" instead of cooking and heating up the house. You know, cold meats, cheeses, vegetables, that sort of thing.  Try to avoid consuming alcohol, it ultimately makes the heat worse, even if it makes you forget about it a little.

What About my family?

Keep a close eye on the kids, so they don't get too hot. If you take the swimming anywhere, keep an eye on them constantly, even if there's lifeguards. Don't scroll on the phone to watch the latest makeover TikTok, please.  

In the car, run the air conditioning. When you stop to get out, even if the kids aren't with you, look in the back seat. That will get you in a habit to always look and get the kids out so they don't roast in the car. Every year we hear tragic stories of kids dying in hot cars. Don't let this be your kid.

Have the kids run around early the morning if they're up. Or later at night. Especially if your house does not have air conditioning, treat the kiddos to an air conditioned movie, museum or other such attraction. They'll love it and it will help their bodies recover from the heat. 

Should I worry about my dog during this heat wave?

Absolutely! Keep them in a cool place as much as you can. If you have air conditioning, encourage them little Roscoe to hang out there. They'll still need to go on walks to do their business and to sniff around. (That sniffing is very important for the health of a dog). Do the walks early in the evening before it gets hot. 

Don't let your dog walk on asphalt, concrete or other hard surface during the day. Those surfaces get wicked hot and can burn paws. 

What about Old Lady McCormick Next Door?

Check on her. A lot. Especially if she has no air conditioning, Heat can really take a toll on the elderly. In those big heat waves in Europe, most of the thousands of people who were killed were elderly. A heat wave similar to the upcoming one killed six elderly or disabled Vermonters. 

This is a stereotype, but I notice a lot of older Vermonters prize their independence and stubbornly refuse help. So lie to them. "I made way too much of this nice cold macaroni salad. I'd hate to see it go to waste."  Or, "I bought this nonrefundable ticket to the movies for tonight, but now my niece can't go. Why don't you go with us so we can use this ticket."

Just be extra nice to the elderly

Man, that neighbor of ours just mowed his lawn in this heat, and he looks awful! Should we do anything about it?

Yes, yes and double yes.

If he's headachy, nauseous, dizzy,  fatigued, weak, more irritable than usual, thirsty with heavy sweating, and his muscles are cramping up, he's probably got heat exhaustion. (Another symptom of heat exhaustion is decreased urine output, but you might not know that. 

Get him indoors to a cool place and encourage him to drink cool liquids (but not the glass of chardonnay you forgot to put down when you noticed Mr. Golf Course Lawn stumbling out there.  Take off his shoes and socks, even if they smell awful, and put cool, wet towels around his neck or elsewhere on his body. 

He also needs to go to the ER or Urgent Care to get checked out if symptoms don't improve within an hour. 

If your mowing buddy is confused, agitated, has slurred speech, nausea and vomiting, flushed skin, rapid breathing and a racing heart, chances are he's got heat stroke. This is a hair on fire emergency. Call 911 now if not sooner. 

Did climate change cause this?

Not really, but climber change probably made it worse than it otherwise would have been. There have always been heat waves and heat domes during the summer. What might have been a couple days near 90 degrees several decades ago has become a horrible excursion into the mid and upper 90s with near record high humidity levels. 

As I noted above, get used to it. Heat waves like this used to be really rare events. Now they're starting to get more common, so we'll be writing this Q and A a lot more in the future. 

Well, this all just sucks. When will it end?

It'll start to get better toward Saturday and Sunday, but "improvement" might be too optimistic a word. Temperatures toward Sunday and early next week will be in the 80s to maybe near 90, but not way up in the 90s. Humidity will still be high, but not as bad as it will be Wednesday to Friday. But still annoying.

As far as a big whoosh of cool, clear Canadian air, I don't see that happening anytime soon

 

Dangerous Heat, Humidity Blast Into Vermont Today For An Extended Stay, Severe Storm Threat Looms, Too.

Heat risk map for Thursday. Purple is extreme heat and dark 
red is major. It's rare to have so much purple in this
map, Note the flecks of purple here in Vermont. 

 We had one more nice, cool Vermont dawn today, with temperatures in the 50s as the sun broke over the Green Mountains. 

Yesterday was warm, for sure, but not humid, so the lack of moisture in the air let things col off overnight. 

Going through the next several days at least, you'll want to take it very easy, keep hydrated, and make sure your neighbors and relatives are OK. 

Let's get into the updated day by day outlook.

TODAY

The hot, humid air is at our doorstep, and will flood in today. The dew point, an indicator of how sticky the air feels, was in the comfortable 50s early this morning. Those dew points will be in the icky mid 60s to around 70 by late afternoon, and it will only get worse from there. 

Most of us will get into well into the 80s today with the hottest valleys maybe touching 90 degrees if it stays sunny enough. If it hits 90 in Burlington today, that would probably be the start of five consecutive days in the 90s. 

Heat waves that long or longer have only happened 16 times in Burlington since the late 1800s. 

The forecast for the increasing heat is certain, the forecast for thunderstorms is not. 

As we've noted the past few days, we'll be prone to batches of thunderstorms diving down from Ontario and Quebec. And since the air will be so hot and humid over the next few days, a few homegrown strong storms could pop up, too.

For now, as of early this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has most of Vermont under a slight risk, level two of five of severe storms today and tonight. They also have - once again - a low but not zero chance of a brief tornado, this time in northwest Vermont and northern New York 

This will get updated one way or another later this morning, as it's hard to predict the path and intensity of these packages of thunderstorms that will come through. Not only today and tonight, but through this heat wave. 

WEDNESDAY

The core of the heat wave arrives. Dawn will break muggy with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. An extreme heat watch is in effect for the Champlain Valley, low elevations of southwest Vermont and the lower Connecticut valley Wednesday afternoon to Friday evening. That means the heat index is expected to be at or above 105 degrees during this spell. 

This will almost definitely be upgraded to an extreme heat warning soon. Such a heat warning only applies to heat indexes of 105 or above Since the rest of Vermont away from the hotter valleys will "only" see a heat index in the 100 to 105 degree range, they'll probably fall under a heat advisory soon. 

As far as actual temperatures, highs tomorrow should be in the low to mid 90s, with the hotter readings in the warmer valleys. Dew points will rise to the mid 70s, which is fairly rare for Vermont. The weather tomorrow and Thursday will be typical for a Florida July. Or even worse than that.

Orlando, Florida yesterday had a mid -afternoon temperature of 92 with a dew point of 74. Mid-afternoon tomorrow in Burlington is forecast to bring a temperature of 95 and a dew point of 75.

Burlington will very likely have one of its top ten worst heat indexes on record, and has a slight chance of breaking the all time heat index record of 111.4 set on August 26, 1948. The forecast peak heat index for Wednesday is 109, which would place it at #3 in the top 10 list of worst heat indexes the city has seen, at least since they started keeping track of such things in 1947.

The one potential saving grace is if thunderstorms bring the temperature down. Or, thunderstorms that had broken up send clouds our way, which would mean slightly lower temperatures but no relief from teak humidity. 

Again, it's impossible to predict the timing and position of the most concentrated thunderstorms tomorrow but they could happen anytime. Some storms could be strong again. With all this humidity, thunderstorm rains would be torrential perhaps enough to set off a highly localized flash flood,

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More of the same with probably the most intense heat on Thursday. For now the National Weather Service is going for a high of 98 in Burlington and Springfield, and well into the 90s elsewhere. There is a chance we could see a 100 degree reading or two.

How about this for a break: Friday should be cooler than Thursday, with highs only in the low to mid 90s. And the steamy air will continue. 

Nighttime lows Wednesday through Friday will be in the low to mid 70s in most of state with the stuffy air in place, Those without air conditioning won't see any real nighttime relief. Keep a close eye on your  elderly or ill neighbors that don't have air conditioning. This is dangerous for them 

.The extreme humidity will continue both days. As will the chance of thunderstorms, some potentially strong and/or torrential. If the storms, or clouds from distant storms cover the sky in the afternoons, high temperatures will be a little cooler forecast. 

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

Often, heat waves in Vermont end with a big whoosh of dry, cool, refreshing air straight from the friendly folks in central or northern Canada. That won't the case this time. 

Instead, temperatures will slowly drift downwards, Highs would still be near 90 on Saturday and in the mid and upper 80s Sunday and Monday. Humidity will stay high, too, but not quite as terrible as this week will be, 

But since the effects of heat waves accumulates in people as the days go by, this allegedly "cooler" air won't be enough to help people who endured the heat without air conditioning, You'll still want to make sure your elderly friends and neighbors are OK.  

 

Heat Wave Still On For Vermont, Rest Of Easter U.S. Uncertain Chances For Vermont Severe Storms

Looking north from St. Albans, Vermont, showers and a few
thunderstorms could be seen trying to develop in Quebec
but dry air and a lack of instability made them sputter.
However, during our upcoming heat wave, we will
need to look toward Quebec as that's where potential
severe or torrential thunderstorms would come from.

 After a gorgeous and quite warm Sunday, today will be your last day for quite awhile to enjoy tolerable weather in Vermont. 

It'll be even warmer than yesterday, with the banana belt valleys expected to reach the upper 80s. The dew point, a general indicator of how humid it feels, will be near 60 today, so it will feel slightly more humid than Sunday. 

Then the fun really begins. Even though we know it will be hot and very humid this week and that thunderstorms are a good bet, there's still questions about exactly how hot it will get in Vermont. 

There's even bigger questions as to the extent of the thunderstorms. We do have  a risk of severe storms and localized flash flooding. Let's taking it day by day, as we usually do. 

We already covered today, so let's start with:

Tuesday.

You'll feel the air get noticeably more humid and icky as the day goes as the heat dome starts to assert itself. Because of some cloud cover, we'll probably fall short of 90 degrees in most of the state. But by late in the day, the dew point should be near 70 degrees, so it will feel steamy for sure

As we've been mentioning for the past several days, we'll be prone to those packets of "ridge runner" thunderstorms coming up and over the northern edge of the heat dome and then coming down across Vermont from Quebec.

Figuring out what time theses storms would come through aad exactly where they hit is futile more than a few hours in advance. If any of these come through tomorrow afternoon or evening, some could be severe with strong damaging winds, hail and torrential rains. 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center a marginal, level 1 out 5 risk of severe storms in Vermont and New York.  The SPC says all the ingredients are there for big storms, but it just depends whether a trigger will set them off or not. 

"Trends in guidance will need to be monitored,:" the SPC said in its description of the threat. That's NOAA speak for we might have to upgrade the risk lel, but we want to see more data before pulling that trigger..

If storms come through late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, they're less likely to be severe, but they would contain a lot of lightning, and worse, torrential downpours. We'll have to be on our toes for the risk of local flash floods

Wednesday

Hot and humid, with a storm risk at any time, especially in the afternoon and evening. In the past, we've often had loud, soaking thunderstorms around dawn in the opening day of big heat waves, especially in northern Vermont. So based on experience, there's a chance the day might start off pretty noisily. 

If storms come through in the mid and late morning and early afternoon instead, we would  hold temperatures down into the 80s to near 90 with horrible humidity. 

But the better chance is more storms would hold off  until later in the afternoon, which would mean highs in the low to mid 90s, with that steamy, stuffy air. 

The National Weather Service  in South Burlington is considering issuing heat advisories or warnings in Vermont. They're just waiting for more "guidance" as we mentioned above from computerized forecasting data.

Such torrid, steamy air gives us a chance of strong or severe storms and torrential rains. All we need is a trigger. Those "ridge runners" will still be a threat, diving down from Quebec. While you're roasting your butt off, be on the alert for severe storms and local flash flooding.

Thursday

Likely the worst day of the heat. Again, unless storms coming in during the late morning or early afternoon to block the sun, we will all get into the 90s. There's still a chance some valleys in southeast Vermont could touch 100 degrees. 

The ever-present chance of strong thunderstorms continues, but I'm guessing the chances of that are slightly lower Thursday. 

Friday.

Same exact story. 'Nuff said.

Weekend

It's either going to be very warm and humid but slightly more bearable or the torrid weather will continue. 

Some computer models drop daytime temperatures into the mid and upper 80s and send dew points down into the mid and upper 60s. That's an improvement, I suppose, but it will still feel icky and not what we hope for in a Vermont summer weekend. . 

Other models keep the 90+ degree heat going with ridiculous humidity. 

Either way, it looks like a weak weather front will lurk somewhere over us or nearby over the weekend, continuing the risk of severe storms an local flash floods.

So, yeah, we have a crappy week coming up in the Green Mountain State. Enjoy! 

 

Fascinating Time Lapse Of A Severe, Rotating Storm Over Rutland County, Vermont

Screen grab from a Jeffery Smith-created time lapse of a
rotating mini supercell thunderstorm last Friday. This is
looking north from West Rutland, Vermont. The lower
cloud over the slight ridge on the right side of the 
photo appears to be a possible wall cloud, which
can be a precursor ro a tornado, No tornadoes
occurred with this storm. 

That powerful thunderstorm last Friday that rolled through central Vermont and southern New Hampshire was unique. And we have video proof of just how cool that storm was. 

It developed near Ticonderoga, New York and by the time it traveled the short distance into northern and central Rutland County, it was rotating and spewing damaging winds and hail. 

The storm passed just north of West Rutland before thrashing Proctor and the north and east sides of Rutland with winds that tossed down trees and power lines. 

In West Rutland, photographer Jeffrey Smith, who does a lot of fantastic drone and surface shots in and around the town, captured an absolutely fascinating time lapse of the storm as it passed just to the north of West Rutland and slammed into Proctor. 

Here's the video. A description of what's going on is below.

The time lapse video is over West Rutland, looking north toward Hanley Mountain. The center of the storm is right behind the mountain. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington had issued a severe thunderstorm warning pretty much as it entered Vermont around the town of Benson. The severe storm warning was still in effect when this video was shot. 

Meteorologists had noticed broad rotation in the storm by the time it reached its position seen in the video. But correctly, in my opinion, they did not issue a tornado warning as the storm did not appear to be preparing to form one, 

However, the video shows the storm might have come close to creating a brief one. 

Despite the extremely high quality of Smith's video, it's hard to tell exactly what some aspects of the storm meant. 

As you can see in the time lapse, the storm was clearly rotating, left to right. Near the beginning of the photo, it seems like a spot with lower clouds might be spinning, but it quickly gets disrupted, probably an effect from Hanley Mountain .

Especially when you see a gush of rain start to come over the mountain, a lower cloud becomes much more visible on the right side of the screen. Toward the end of the video, that cloud lowers further, becomes more round shaped and clearly starts to spin. 

That to me really looks like a wall cloud.  If a real meteorologist wants to weigh in and correct me, please do! If a tornado were to form, a wall cloud is where it would originate 

When my alleged wall cloud started spinning, that's when radar would have seen the tightening spin, and the National Weather Service would have been tempted to issue a tornado warning. But the spin was probably between scans and was very brief.

The video cuts off, but it looks like that gush of wind and rain. would have destroyed the spin on the cloud, ensuring that this supercell remained just a severe storm. Many wall clouds do not produce tornadoes, and here was an example of that. 

Still, with this storm, Vermont could have had its fourth tornado of the year. But, thankfully, it didn't happen. 

My alleged wall cloud was over the western edge of Proctor when the film was taken. There was tree damage in Proctor, but that was due to straight line winds. 

Also, notice the trees at the very bottom of the film. You can see the wind is blowing toward the storm. That supercell was ingesting warm, humid air to keep it alive. 

The storm went on to produce straight line wind damage on the north and east sides of Rutland and in Mendon. The storm appears to weaken a bit after crossing the green mountains. But it regrouped, and continued on as a spinning supercell through central and southern New Hampshire, leaving a trail of wind and hail damage behind.  

Again, Many thanks to Jeffrey Smith for permission to use the video!

 

"Worst Ever" Heat Wave In Europe Makes Our Impending Muggy Spell Feel Like Sweater Weather.

People in France try to cool off during the recent
deadly, record shattering, climate-driven heat wave

 All kinds of record high temperatures have been afflict9ig Europe as a terrible, deadly heat wave as become entrenched in the region. 

Scientists who track climate and weather events say this is the worst heat wave on record for much of Europe. The hot weather would have been "virtually impossible" just a half century ago, but climate change has altered the equation.

The record highs are far too numerous to list, and it's almost impossible to keep up with them. Records for month of June and all-time record highs are being broken, and then the next day they're broken again. 

At last check, nations that set new all-time record highs were Luxembourg (105.3 degrees); Belgium (102 degrees); Netherlands, (102.9 degrees); Czech Republic (105.4 degrees).

Several other nations, including Slovakia, Poland, Austria, United Kingdom experienced their hottest June weather on record.

EUROPEAN HEAT WAVES DANGEROUS

Extreme heat in Europe is more dangerous than similar temperatures in the United States. There is little air conditioning in most of Europe. 

Only around 20 percent of European homes have air conditioning, compared to nearly 90 percent in the United States. 

Intense, long lasting heat waves are a relatively new thing in Europe, thanks to climate change. The architecture of the buildings are designed to keep heat in during long, cold damp winters. So they turn into ovens when long heat waves arrive. And the heat doesn't dissipate in the homes at night. 

 The architecture makes installing AC difficult. Energy costs in Europe are high, so people are reluctant to install air conditioning. 

Heat waves in recent years have killed thousands of Europe's. The current heat wave is blamed for 1,000 or so deaths in France alone. 

Intense, climate-driven heat waves began to hit Europe in earnest in the early 2000s. In 2003, Europe heat waves are estimated to have caused or contributed to at least 70,000 deaths. The hot summer of 2022 in Europe also led to more than 61,000 excess deaths, according to the journal Nature.    

This doesn't get much publicity, but heat waves are the biggest weather killer. I guess that's not noticed as much as it should because heat waves are not nearly as telegenic as hurricanes, tornadoes and floods. 

ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

It's become widely accepted that these new, more intense and longer lasting European heat waves are being made worse by climate change. 

 According to World Weather Attribution, which assesses how climate change has influenced major storms and weather events, has this to say:

"In 1976, when some of the previous European records were set, the 2026 temperatures would have been virtually impossible to occur in June, while also highly unlikely at any time of the year. In 2003, the first major heat wave of this century, daytime heat like this would still have been very rare, about 10 times less likely that today, while nighttime temperatures such as this June would have bee more than a hundred times less likely in 2003."

World Weather Attribution calculated that a similar European in June to the one currently underway would have been about 3.5 degrees Celsius  (6.3F) during the day and 2 degrees Celsius (3.5F) cooler in 2003. Nighttime temperatures would have been about 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3F cooler at night in 1976 and roughly 1.3 degrees Celsius  (2.3F) cooler in June, 2003.

The organization also had this ominous statement: "This summer shows that at 1.4 C of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies ability to cope. Our analysis here shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly even in living memory, with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago. 

A rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical if we are to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences in the future."

That statement is something that should chill the heart, despite the intense heat outside. Here in the United States, an intense heat wave is about to strike the Midwest and East Coast. But the Powers That Be keep dismissing the danger, so they can remain in good favor with the fossil fuel industry. 

As Politico reports, U.S. Energy Secretary basically told heat-wilted Europeans to stop whining. "Always more people die in the winter than die in the summer, because cold is a vastly. larger killer than heat is," he said. 

It's true that more Europeans die from cold weather than hot weather. But deaths from hot weather are rising fast, but deaths from cold weather are holding steady or falling. In the United States, the annual death toll from heat exceed the of cold weather deaths. 

Overall, then, weather related deaths in Europe are generally rising. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Relief from the heat is now spreading across Europe. The change in the air is creating severe thunderstorms in some areas. The relief from the heat might not last long. Some forecasts move a new heat dome into western Europe starting in a roughly a week. 

 

Enjoy The Low Humidity, Extreme Humidity, Torrid Heat, Storms On The Way To Vermont

National Weather Service heat risk map for this coming
Thursday. Click on the map to make it bigger and 
easier to see. Purple is extreme heat and risk. Dark red
is major heat. I don't remember the last time I've
seen so much purple in the heat risk map. Also
notice the flecks of purple even in Vermont. 

Saturday was another perfect summer weather day in Vermont - mostly sunny, a nice breeze, low humidity some pretty clouds. 

This morning dawned clear and cool. Temperatures were in the 50s statewide.  Despite all the rain lately, we've had a fair number of days like this in the late spring and early summer this year.

One thing that I knew we'd lose eventually is the clear, unpolluted skies that allowed us an unrestricted view of the Green Mountains and hills, shimmering green as far as the eye can see.

Now, this morning, I notice wildfire smoke beginning to creep in. To nobody's surprise due to a deep drought in the Rocky Mountains, large wildfires have broken out, especially in Utah.  There's also fires burning in a long stripe from Alaska, through central Canada to central and northern Quebec. So far, it's not nearly as bad up there as in recent years, but they're burning.

The smoke has to go somewhere, and sometimes it ends up in New England.   

There is smoke visible on the satellite photos this morning in Quebec and northern Vermont. It's not enough to harm air quality, but the air will probably look kind of hazy, especially north. For the rest of the summer and into the early autumn, we are going to continue to see some hazy days because of this. Not everyday, but the chances of crystal clear air has diminished until autumn rains and snows really hit.

Smoke is the least of our worries at this point, though. We've got a volatile week coming up that features high heat, even  higher humidity and a volatile atmosphere that could trigger more rounds of severe storms. 

TODAY:

Another beauty. Sunshine with low humidity and highs in the low 80s most places, with a few upper 70s northern hills and maybe a few mid 80s in the warmest banana belt town in the Champlain Valley and southeast Vermont.  

So it'll be a perfect day to do anything Vermonty, hike, bike, hit the garden, play softball or frisbee,  go to the beach, fall asleep on a hammock, get a maple creemee. It should be illegal to stay indoors on a day like today. 

Like yesterday, you can even lay in a grassy field and watch the puffy clouds billow up over the mountains. You know, that cloud looks like a dog, that other one looks like an ice cream cone, that third cloud looks like Weird Al Yankovic. You get the idea.

The only potential problem is a very weak disturbance that could touch off an isolated shower or garden variety thundershower near the Canadian border. No biggie.

MONDAY

One last nice day. Dawn will bring more cool air, with temperatures in the 50s to around 60.  Under sunny skies, it will get well into the 80s Warmer towns will be around 87, 88 or even 89 degrees, so pretty damn warm. But the humidity will stay low, so it will be quite tolerable out there.

TUESDAY

A transition day as the hot, humid air begin to roll in. Dawn might still be comfortably dry, but by afternoon and evening you should really start to feel the humidity. Highs should get into the 80s again. No 90s yet because of clouds and a risk of showers and thunderstorms. 

WEDNESDAY. 

A real wild card, with some questions in the forecast. Will the hot air really get in here full force? Meteorologist are leaning toward a  "yes" answer. If it does, temperatures will soar well into the 90s. Since we'll be near the edge of the torrid, muggy air, instability in the atmosphere could be almost off the charts. Some high altitude, shifting winds could enter the picture. If that happens, we could be looking at severe thunderstorms. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington notes that some models keep the hottest, most humid air off a little to our southwest Wednesday. In that case, it would still be very warm and somewhat humid, but not killer hot and without the lightning bolts, dark clouds and potential high winds nipping at our heels.

THURSDAY

This is the day Vermont is most likely to take par in the nasty heat dome that's setting up. Many cities in the Midwest and up and down the East Coast should get over 100 degrees. The forecast high Thursday in Boston and New York is around 103. Washington DC is forecasting 104. 

I wouldn't be surprised if a 100 degree reading or two snuck in to southeastern Vermont. If that happens, it'll be two years in a row with 100 degree heat in the Green Mountain State. Such heat is rare, but I guess it's becoming less so in our age of climate change.

Forecasts have the rest of Vermont well into the 90s. As of today, forecasted highs Thursday are 97 in Burlington, 95 in Montpelier, 96 in Rutland and 98 in Springfield. 

The only caveat to this is there are almost always weak ripples of energy in the atmosphere. If one comes through Thursday afternoon, that would spark a bunch of thunderstorms that would cool the air a little but do nothing to help with the humidity. 

FRIDAY

Temperatures are forecast to be in the 100s again up and down the East Coast. Vermont might get vague relief from an approaching very lame cold front that would hold temperatures down to the low 90s. Um, yay? We'll wait and see on that. 

I'm sort of making light of all this heat coming out way, but seriously, this will be dangerous. Nights will be very warm and muggy, offering little relief from the daytime torrid weather. This state of affairs goes on for at least a few days The cumulative effects of the hot air over days can kill vulnerable people .

Unfortunately deaths from the heat are already a foregone conclusion in the Midwest and East due to the extreme nature of the upcoming hot spell. Let's hope the victims don't include Vermonters. 

NEXT WEEKEND

A potential "cold snap"! By that I mean daytime temperatures would "only" reach the 80s to around 90 with continued rather high humidity.  

Rutland County Hit By Big Storm Friday. All Of Vermont Faces Hot, Steamy Weather In Upcoming Days

The severe thunderstorm in Rutland County yesterday
with a wild shelf cloud. Note the blue tint in the clouds.
That suggests there's quite a bit of hail up there. Photo
was taken by Mary Jean Wasik Obtained via Facebook

 Well, we got through our latest severe weather threat pretty much unscathed. Most of us anyway. Quite a few people in Rutland County would beg to differ. 

As severe weather probabilities were updated midday Friday, the word, "tornado" somehow came back into the vernacular. They said there was a very low, but not zero chance of a tornado in eastern Vermont or New Hampshire in the very worst storms. 

Turns out there was only one thunderstorm of note, and it was a doozy. It developed near Ticonderoga, New York around 2:30 and headed southeast. through northern an eastern Rutland County. 

Dime sized hail fell in Hubbarton and Hortonia, Vermont. It then moved on to knock down numerous trees in Proctor and in the north and east sides of Rutland. 

I don't see any evidence the damage was caused by a tornado. Looks like straight line winds caused all the Rutland Couty trouble. 

The storm appeared to weaken somewhat crossing the Green Mountains because I don't have damage reports there. But the storm blossomed again as it crossed the Connecticut River into Cornish, New Hampshire, where hail was big enough to dent cars. 

The storm continue on through southern New Hampshire as a rotating supercell, spewing damaging wins and hail along its path.

Parts of Vermont that were not hit be severe storms still had generous rainfall. It was hit and miss, or course, bur Burlington had a storm total of 0.68 inches. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected right around an inch of rain from Thursday night through late Friday afternoon. 

The rain is mostly over, for now, and summer is really going to make a stand. The details: 

TODAY

There were areas of low clouds and fog around early this morning around Vermont,  but that should mostly clear out to reveal a nice, typical Vermont summer day. Highs will get into the 

You'll see some building, towering clouds here and there over the mountains, and some of those will develop into showers and garden variety thunderstorms. They'll pretty much stick to the mountains and do no harm. From the valleys especially it will be a great cloud watching day as showers and storm develop, then fade as new ones form. 

A few showers  could try to wander off into the valleys during the afternoon and evening, but they'll probably weaken as they do so. 

While you're watching the clouds, or doing anything else outside, it should get up to near 80 degrees for most of us. Humidity will be moderate. 

SUNDAY: 

A copy of today, except it will be a couple degrees warmer and there will probably be few storms and showers over the mountains. 

MONDAY: 

The heat and humidity really start to build. It should still be fairly reasonably with highs in the low to mid 80s. Maybe a spot 87 or 88 in the warmest valleys. 

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

The heat is on. Hot, humid, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the warmest valleys Tuesday through Friday. 

It's hard to say exactly how hot it will get, as clouds and storms might interfere with the hottest temperatures. For now, the National Weather Service is going with a high of 91 degrees in Burlington Tuesday, followed by 95 Wednesday and Thursday. 

Granted, Burlington is warmer than many other parts of Vermont. But regardless of what happens, with location and afternoon showers and storms,  it will be uncomfortable. 

 As I mentioned in yesterday's post, we will be on the northeast corner of a big heat dome that will be setting up over the eastern US. "Ridge runner" patches of thunderstorms could go over the top of the heat dome in southern Canada and then head southeastward over us at any time during this upcoming hot week. The first chance of this is Tuesday night. 

With all the heat and humidity in place, there's a chance that storms could become severe or lead to local flash flooding. It's way too early to determine for sure whether this will happen, and if so, where. But on top of taking care of yourself in the heat, you might have to keep an ear out for severe storm warnings, too.

 

Overnight Rain Is Over, Now Onto The Showers, Thunderstorm Later Today

A patch of clearing skies over St. Albans, Vermont
at 5:45 a..m, but ou can just see shower clouds
over the tree line looking toward New York.
A burst of rain hit not long after this photo
was taken. If it clears up again later this 
morning, that would increase the chances 
of strong storms a little bit. 

 I'm up bright an early for a start-of-the day appointment, so let's get into our latest out of rain and storms. 

As expected, rain moved over Vermont last night. Through 5 a.m., it hadn't amounted to all that much in  northern Vermont. 

It appears most places up there had a quarter inch or less. Southern Vermont, as expected, did better, with many places receiving a half inch or more of rain.  

We are, of course,  not done with the showers and storms. There were a few scattered showers and downpours wandering around the region as of 5:30 a.m., but also some breaks in the clouds. 

Whether it stays more cloudier or sunnier it remains this morning will influence how wild, or not wild the weather will become this afternoon. The sunnier ir gets this morning, the more likely a few stars could become strong.

This isn't a perfect setup for severe storms. The alleged cold front coming in to spark the storms doesn't really have any cold air behind it. The lack of a temperature contrast might constrain storms a bit. But there is converging winds near the front, so that's why some thunderstorms might spark. 

The air also isn't all that humid, so there's a little less fuel for strong thunderstorms than if the air was really muggy. 

There is enough of a chance for strong storms that NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont under a level one out of five marginal risk for severe storms. That means we could have isolated instances of damaging winds. There's also a very slight risk of large hail, too. 

The best chances of strong storms for most of us would be a little earlier than is typical - roughly between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m.  The best chance of strong storms would be in the early afternoon. 

We also might have a couple scattered showers or non-severe rumbles of thunder lasting into the ever. 

Even though thunderstorms might have some brief downpours, I'm not really worried about flooding for this go-around.  

The next issue facing us is, well, summer. 

WEEKEND

Saturday and Sunday look like a typical summer weekend. It'll be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday and low to mid 80s Sunday, with an odd 87 or 88 in the very warmest Banana Belt valleys. Humidity will be noticeable but not extreme. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the mountain both days. Especially Saturday.  

Some of those might try to drift into the valleys, but they'll probably tend to fall apart as they do so. 

EARLY WEEK

Then we get into real heat. I don't know exactly how hot it will get, but hot enought. There's a good chance at least some of us will make it to 90 degrees. It will also be very humid, meaning the night will be stuffy. 

The very warm, or hot weather with the muggy air should last most if not all of next week

Another thing to consider: The heat will be courtesy of a big "heat dome" that will set up over the eastern United States. The center of this heat dome will a little to our west. That opens us up to what are know as "ridge runners."

Ridge runners are packets of severe thunderstorms that go up and over the northern edge of the heat domes. When they start moving southeastward along the front side of the heat dome, the storms can get very feisty, sometimes dangerous. 

We'll be in that spot next week. The first chance of a "ridge runner" would come later Tuesday or Tuesday night. We could have one or two  more later in the week.

There's absolutely no guarantee we'll be affected by a ridge runner. They might miss us or not develop at all. You can predict the conditions that could create them well in advance. But you can't really confirm one will form or hit you until the day of the event. 

And if we do, there's no guarantee we'll be hit by the severe parts of a ridge runner. But it's something to keep in the back of your mind if you don't like damaging storms. 

As El Nino Was Brewing, May Was World's Second Hottest On Record

May, 2026 was the world's second hottest on record.
An El Nino has started, which is expected to work 
with climate change to bring global temperatures
 to new and dangerous heights. 

 We're closing in on the end of June, and I realize I never did do my monthly fever check of the world in May 2026. 

As has been the case for years now under the onslaught of climate change, the world continues to run a very high fever.

May, 2026 was the world's second hottest on record, trailing only 2024, the NOAA's National Centers for Environment Information tells us. If you are under the age of 50, you have never seen a May in which the world was even a little cooler than average. 

Climate change has been with us for half a century, and in the past couple of decades, that has gotten more and more obvious.

The warmest places relative to average were much of the Arctic and Antarctica, central Canada and the northwest United States, western Russian, much of southwestern Asia and parts of the North Pacific.

The Pacific Ocean off the west coasts of Mexico and northwestern South American were very warm. That was a sign that El Nino was building. 

Officials declared this month that El Nino is underway. It's forecast to reach record intensity. Since El Ninos tend to warm the climate, a combination of an extreme El Nino and climate change is bad news for the next several months at least. El Nino is expected to peak this winter. 

More intense and longer heat waves, intense droughts and storms are on the horizon for many parts of Earth. Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a rough ride. 

As usual, you could find a few cooler spots around the world. Those included centra South amerce, northeast Russia, western Australia, Southern Africa, eastern Antarctica and a portion of the North Atlantic south of Greenland. 

That "cold blob" south of Greenland is ominous, too. It's a sign that fresh water from melting glaciers in Greenland is messing with the currents in the Atlantic Ocean. If the warm currents that keep western Europe mild collapse, there could be sudden and extreme changes to the climate in Europe and elsewhere. Nobody is prepared for these changes. 

So yeah, I'm full of good news with this post.

Let's move on to how the United States has been doing. 

UNITED STATES

May, 2026 was warm out West and a little cooler
but not extremely so in the East. 

May was the 28th warmest, or 105 coolest, if you want to look at it that way, says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

As had been the case all winter and early spring the west was on the warm side while eastern states were somewhat cooler. Three states - Washington, Oregon and Florida, had one of their top ten Mays on record. 

No state had a particularly cool May. The state that came closest to a chilly May was West Virginia, which had the 39th coolest May out of the past 131 years. Here in Vermont, it was the 51st coolest out of the past 131 years. 

The United States had its  55th driest on record, or 78th wettest May on record NCEI says. Idaho, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan had one of their top ten driest Mays on record. On the other hand, top 10 wettest May honors for 2026 go to Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana. 

Vermont, as you might remember, was also on the damp side. The Green Mountain State had its 19 wettest May out of the past 131 years. 

It won't be long until we have our June summary to see how the start of El Nino is affecting us and the rest o the world. That report should come out in mid-July.

Rain Is Coming To Vermont Again, Could Be Heavy In Spots

Clouds blowing in from some showers near Plattsburgh,
New York were already beginning to fill the sky
over St. Albans, Vermont at 12:40 p.m. today.
There's a rising chance of showers, especially late
this afternoon and we're in for a wet night, with
more showers and storms Friday. 

I had internet problems this morning so I was unable to post earlier, but the glitch seems to have disappeared, so I'll do a noontime Vermont update today instead.

I thought yesterday would be the first day without rain in the Green Mountain State since June 16. 

But a couple raindrops landed on me in Enosburgh yesterday morning. And it looked like a shower or two clipped the extreme northeast corners of the  state in the afternoon. More rain is on the horizon

REST OF TODAY

Today has a good shot at being the ninth consecutive day with rain somewhere in the state.   

A couple showers or even a rumble of thunder could enter western Vermont as soon as this afternoon. Mostly later this afternoon, but I noticed a couple very small downpours had formed near Plattsburgh, New York as of 12:30 p.m. But a warm front attached to a weak area of low pressure that's now near Michigan. All of Vermont will get wet overnight and early tomorrow morning. 

The best guess for now is northern areas should get a quarter inch of rain or so. Central Vermont gets a third of an inch and souther areas are closer to three quarters of an inch. There will be a lot of exceptions  to this, as some heavier downpours and thunderstorms might be mixed in with all this. 

NOAA has central and southern Vermont in a marginal risk for flash flooding tonight because of the risk of heavy downpours from very late this afternoon through tonight. . If any flooding does happen, it will be isolated and probably quite minor.

FRIDAY

There should be something of a break in the action during the morning, when showers become generally lighter and much more widely scattered. Bur then a weather front enters the picture in the afternoon. I wouldn't go so far as to call it a cold front because the air behind it isn't really any colder than the air in front of it.

But a front is zone in which winds converge, and that will be enough to fire up some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Those showers and storms will be pretty widespread around Vermont, so almost everybody will get wet again during the afternoon and evening. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction center gives southern Vermont a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning one or two spots could see some damaging winds. 

As is always the case with thunderstorms, rainfall will be super variable Friday afternoon and evening. A few places might get a real gullywasher, enough to maybe erode some steep gravel driveways or roads in a couple spots. 

A handful of spots will get practically nothing, while many of us will just see some typical showers nd storms. 

SATURDAY AND BEYOND

Increasing heat and humidity is the story Saturday through the middle of next week. This weekend won't be too bad with highs in the low 80s amid moderate humidity. But that humidity will increase Monday through at least Wednesday. 

It's unclear how hot it will get. That depends on how many clouds, showers and storms are around. But warmer valleys have a shot at 90 degrees.  Even if doesn't get that hot, nights will be really stuffy due to the muggy air

Vermont Weather Quieting Down, But Not Super Quiet; Next Round Of Showers Thursday Night/Friday

A sunny start to the day today in St Albans. The peonies
have gone by and need to be dead headed. The stalks of
the day lilies are up and will bloom soon. That will
be a sign that the peak of summer has arrived, The
weather forecast indicates the same thing. 

At least here in northwest Vermont, Tuesday turned out to be a classical beautiful summer day.  The blue sky was flecked with puffy clouds as highs reached to near 80 in the Champlain Valley. 

It was cloudier in southern Vermont, but still pretty good. All of us will get to share in the summer weather most of us love before rain risks return Thursday nigh and Friday. 

Spoiler: The next round of showers and possible storms will not be as wild as the tornadic stuff we had  last week.

As always, let's get into the details:

TODAY

We've got a nearly perfect summer day in store. Temperatures at dawn started in the comfortable 50s as dawn broke. What is basically the strongest sunshine of the year will boost afternoon temperatures into the 70s and low 80s. The humidity will stay reasonable all day. Once again, the blue sky will become decorated by a few puffy clouds. 

Highs should reach well into the 70s again for most of us, with the usual banana belt warmer valleys flirting with 80 degrees again. 

THURSDAY

Another decent day, though you'll probably notice more clouds coming in during the afternoon. The humidity will creep up, but just a little. You'll only notice it a little. Highs again in the 70s to around 80.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

Our next wet period. But it doesn't look like we'll drown in torrential downpours like some events we've seen this month. 

As is almost always the case during the summer, showers and thunderstorms might have some heavy downpours in them. If current forecasts hold, though, it doesn't look like we'll really have any kind of flood threat, despite our pretty swampy ground from all the rain we've had this month.

Early guesses give us very roughly a third to two thirds of an inch of rain out of this system. Again as usual for summer, some places will miss out and get very little. Some other towns will get some big downpours and maybe to to an inch or rain. 

Fingers crossed it also doesn't look like there will be widespread severe thunderstorms. We'll keep an  eye on this because you really don't know for sure if storm will get too rambunctious until the day the storms arrive. 

WEEKEND

Kind of warm, moderately humid, still a risk of a few thunderstorms, but most of the time will be dry. Very typical summer weather.  It will tend to warm up, with highs in the 80s for most places over the weekend and early next week. 

Although the signs of a warm up are there, I'm still unsure whether this will end in a spell of 90 degree weather or not. Stay tuned! 

Vermont Mostly Done With The Rain For A Couple Days, Warming Trend To Start

After a cloudy, cool day, a shaft of sunlight lit up the
trees just before sunset yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont

 As expected, southern parts of Vermont scored the best rains yesterday and last night. I don't have a lot of reports yet, but Springfield looks like they had 1.21 inches of rain and Bennington a respectable 0.7 inches. 

You get north and the rain tapered off, again as expected. Montpelier had just 0.32 inches. Burlington had a scant 0.01 inches.

It's just as well the north missed out. It's soggy up there. The National Weather Service in South Burlington just released some stats noting just how wet it's been.

In general this time of year, most Vermont towns should expect a little over four inches of rain over a 30 day period. Burlington in the past 30 days has had 6.74 inches. But that's one of northern Vermont's "dry" spots. 

Over the past 30 days, Westfield has had a drenching 11.15 inches so drain. Derby Line was at 9.99 inches. Other totals include 9.98 inches in Underhill Center, 9.92 inches in Montgomery Center, 9.85 inches in Richmond and 9.44 inches in Glover.

FORECAST

It won't be as wet! Here are the details

Today/Tomorrow. 

These sodden towns, and the rest of the state, should stay mostly dry today and tomorrow, for a change. I say "mostly" because cool air aloft today might spark some isolated light showers. A weak disturbance Wednesday could touch off a few more widely scattered showers near the Canadian border. 

But, in general, today and tomorrow will be dry. And we'll start a warming trend. A pretty slow trend, but warmer nonetheless. 

We'll get well into the 70s today, with some upper 70s in the  more banana belt valleys of Vermont. . That'll make today the warmest day since last Wednesday. By tomorrow. highs should touch 80 in many valleys. 

Thursday/Friday

The rain comes back but it's unclear how much.  It looks like much of Thursday will be dry with shower chances maybe ramping up later in the day. We think there will be some showers and storms around Thursday night and Friday, but it's unclear how much rain we'll get.  We're also not sure whether any of the storms will be on the strong side. 

This won't be as big and bold and mighty a weather system as the last one we dealt with, so early guesses are the rain won't be as heavy and the severe weather might not be as widespread as last time. If it happens at all. 

Highs both days should be at least 80 degrees in most towns. Overnight lows will still be reasonable enough at around 60 degrees, give or take.

Next Weekend And Beyond

It looks like full on summer weather will continue to build. Highs by next weekend should at least hit the low 80s for most of us. There might still be some scattered afternoon showers or storms over the weekend, but we're not sure on that yet. 

It'll get even warmer as we get into next week. Some signs are pointing toward a downright hot spell to settle in some time next week, just in time for July

Gulf Coast Awash In Deep Floodwaters After Sputtering Tropical Storm Dumps Feet Of Rain, Tornadoes Won't Leave Illinois Alone

A badly flooded home in southern 
Mississippi last week. Photo via 
Facebook, Gulf Coast Severe
Weather and Tropics. 

If you think we've had enough of tornadoes and torrential rains here in Vermont, it could be worse. Much, much worse. 

The Gulf Coast states have been awash in extreme flooding after record rainfall. Illinois has endured a record number of tornadoes, and surrounding states are cowering under the severe weather. Let's take a look:

GULF COAST

A small, weak tropical storm led to extreme flooding in recent days that was anything but small and weak. 

The flooding began in Texas early last week as a disorganized system in the western Gulf of Mexico flung enormous amounts of moisture into the state's coastline.

By Wednesday, the system organized itself enough to be declared Tropical Storm Arthur, the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane sassoon. 

It reached top winds of only 45 mph and lived really less than a day as it came inland over the eastern Texas coast. But the remnants of the storm did what slow moving remains of tropical storms do: It released unbelievable amounts of rain, especially in southern Alabama and Mississippi

According to NBC, rain fell in parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi at a rate of three inches per hours Thursday. For comparison, it normally takes about three weeks to accumulate three inches of rain during a summer month in Vermont. 

At least five people have died in the flooding that has extended from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. More than two feet of rain fell in Louisiana this week. Louisiana and Mississippi record more than a foot of rain in just 12 hours, which is insane. 

AccuWeather estimates Arthur and the flood before and after it formed would cause $4 to $6 billion in damage and economic losses through property and infrastructure damage, power outages, flight delays and business interruptions. 

The worst of the rain has ended in the Gulf Coast states. But sporadic heavy showers and thunderstorms will keep going this week. 

ILLINOIS

A large Illinois tornado yesterday. The state has had a
record number of tornadoes this year and there will
probably be more. Photo via Facebook from 
Storm Chaser Jaden Pappenheim

Illinois has seemingly become the tornado capitol of the United States. The state sees tornadoes every year, of course, given that it's in the Midwest. 

There were 35 reports of tornadoes in southeast Illinois and southern Indiana Sunday.

Through Sunday,  Illinois has had as many as 197 tornadoes  this year, and not all storm damage has been assessed yet to determine whether additional tornadoes have touched down. This breaks the record for the most Illinois tornadoes in a single year. The previous record was 142 two years ago. 

No other state has had as many tornadoes this year as Illinois. This might be yet another sign that tornado alley is drifting from the central and southern Plains to points east and north. As noted, bad tornadoes have hit Illinois in the past, but they do seem to becoming more frequent there, and in northern states like Ohio and Michigan. 

Sunday's tornadoes included one powerful twister that killed two people in Jefferson County, Illinois. 

After something of a break over the next couple of days, the weather setup suggests another severe weather and possible tornado outbreak 

Videos

NBC gives a good overview of the Gulf Coast flooding here. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

View of the deadly tornado in southern Illinois Sunday. It was one of up to three dozen twisters in the Midwest. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.  

Soaking Rains To Hit Southern Vermont Later Today, Tonight. Only A Little Rain North. We Think

 A brief thunderstorms interrupts a day at the dog park
in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday

 People in northern and central Vermont woke up to mostly clear skies for a change today, after so much rain has fallen in recent days. 

It was already clouding up in anticipation of more rain across southern Vermont. More on that in a minute. 

Sunday, in its own way, was a rather pretty day. Sure. many of us had to dash indoors when the showers an thunderstorms blew through. But the towering thunderstorm clouds and the big fluffy towering cumulus made the sky pretty. 

But, like I said it's going to rain again. Here are the details

MONDAY

The best thing about the upcoming bout of rain is it's mostly going to hit southern Vermont, where they actually kind of need it. Far northern Vermont, which is absolutely saturated at the moment. 

The latest rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service. More than an inch of rain is 
expected by tomorrow morning in southern Vermont,
while far northern Vermont gets very little. 

Southern Vermont really is in for a soaker. Most people from Rutland and Windsor counties south should get more than an inch of rain. Some places will see 1.5 inches, or maybe even close in on two inches in one or two isolated spots in the far southern Green Mountains.

Because it will be a steady drenching rain and not sharp downpours, flooding won't happen. Instead, the water will soak into the relatively dry ground. 

Central Vermont should only get a quarter to a half inch of rain.  Far northern Vermont gets a break from the incessant rain. Those areas should see less than a tenth of an inch. 

There is still a chance the weather system could go a little north of the planned path or a little south. This would change rainfall amounts up or down. The forecast is tricky because there will be a sharp line between heavy rain south and very little north. 

This should mostly come through between late this afternoon and very early tomorrow morning. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

A mostly dry spell for a change. Hallelujah! There might be some widely scattered showers Tuesday afternoon in the north, especially in the mountains, but they shouldn't amount to much. Wednesday actually looks sunny with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 80. So nice early summer weather there. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

It looks like another system will roll with more showers and thunderstorms. An early peek suggest the heaviest rain might fall in the north again. It's still too soon to tell whether this will represent any kind of flood threat or not.