Vermont weather geek's hodgepodge of weather and climate news and opinion. Often Vermont focused, but taking a national and global approach, with sometimes an appropriate dash of fun, outrage, cynicism and compassion.
Countless logs and debris floats in a tributary of the Colorado River in the Grand Canyon after a severe flash flood. At least two people died, and 15 are missing. More flash floods are underway today.
A massive flash flood blasted through a canyon in Grand Canyon National Park canyon flood.
The National Park Service said it recovered the body of a 46-year old manfrom the Crystal Rapids along the Colorado River. About 15 people are still unaccounted for. The flooding was concentrated along Bright Angel Creek, a tributary of the Colorado River.
As of early Sunday 62 people had been evacuated from Phantom Ranch and the lower North Kaibab Trail. Additional evacuations are expected.
In one area, park rangers ordered people to run as fast as they could across a foot bridge to safety. Moments later, the bridge collapsed.
Phantom Ranch is a lodge at the bottom of the Grand Canyon, on the east side of Bright Angel Creek, a little over a half mile north of the Creek's confluence with the Colorado River.
Footbridges along Bright Angel Creek were destroyed. Theflash flood also destroyedpart of the Transcanyon Waterline, which supplies water for the park's use.
Phantom Ranch, Bright Angel Campground, Phantom Ranch Canteen, North Kaibab Trail, the Black and Silver bridges and traffic to the Colorado River are closed until further notice.
Overnight accommodations at the park have been suspended for now, and water restrictions go into effect today.
Video showed muddy, debris-filled water rushing through the canyon. Pieces of buildings and/or RVs floated in the water.
WHY THE FLOOD HAPPENED
Flash floods often occur this time of year in and around the Grand Canyon, but this was far worse than the usual episodes of high water.
Near where the worst of the flooding occurred, 1.24 inches of rain fell, including 0.84 inches within an hour.
That might sound like much to those of us in the humid East, but the steep landscape of rocks and sand does not readily absorb water. Downpours tend to run off into flash floods.
The Southwest is in the middle of its annual monsoon season, when moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico are drawn into the deserts by the circulation created by an atmospheric heat dome of high pressure near the region.
This year's monsoon iswetter for several reasons.Underlying it all is climate change. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, especially under the right conditions. So monsoon rains have been in general getting heavier over the years.
In Arizona, monsoon rainfall isbecoming more intense even as daily average rainfall in the state has decreased. In other words Arizona is having fewer rainy days, but when it does rain it more often comes in torrents leading to flash floods.
It's worse this yearbecause a record breaking El Nino is heating up the eastern Pacific Ocean waters to record heights. A separate "marine heat wave" is making Pacific waters hot further north. The combination is adding a lot of humidity to the Desert Southwest air, creating more an overload of atmospheric moisture.
Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Iselle were also drawn into the volatile atmospheric mix over Arizona.
Deluges have been the result.
MORE FLOODS?
It'll be just as bad today, if not worse in some areas.
Today, we have a risk of flash floodsacross all of Arizona, almost all of Utah, the western half of Colorado and western New Mexico.
The risk of dangerous flash floodsis especially high in northern Arizona, including Grand Canyon National Park and in southern and central Utah.
By late morning local time, flash warnings were up in parts of Utah. The storms will intensify during this afternoon, so the flooding will surely become more widespread.
The flood risk will diminish tomorrow and the day after - for now.
Computer models suggest a dying tropical storm early next will send extreme amounts of moisture into southern California, Arizona and Nevada. Big time severe flood could result if this scenario proves accurate.
The spent blossoms of hostas glistened in the morning sun this morning in St. Albans, Vermont. Rain chances ramp up this week, but questions remain as to how much we'll see..
The signs of autumn continue to sneak in.
Clouds on Sunday in northern Vermont were a little thicker than expected and that held temperatures down into the 60s.
Burlington's high temperature was 69 degrees, ending an 83-day long stretch in which every single day had a high temperature of at least 70 degrees.
That's the third longest such stretch on record. Only the summers of 1995 and 1901 had a longer such streak. (It was 87 such days in 1995, so we were very close. Had it been one degree warmer yesterday, Burlington probably would have broken the record, based on current forecasts.
Also, as of this morning, Burlington has had 88 consecutive days in which the low temperature was 50 or above. That's one of the longest on record, but it will be a stretch to what I think was the record - 106 such days in 2023.
Rainfall yesterday, as expected was pretty light. Two bursts of rain here in St. Albans, one at around 1 p.m. and another around 8:30 in the evening, left us with 0.38 inches of rain. Some rain fell in the Northeast Kingdom, where precipitation is really needed, but that was no drought buster. Burlington only managed 0.02 inches of rain.
Southern Vermont, as expected, pretty much missed out on any rain.
Enough of the past, let's look ahead. Rain is eventually in the forecast, but I do worry the Northeast Kingdom might miss out on some of it.
TODAY
The front that came through last night is now stalled to our south and west
It's going to create a lot of trouble from western New York to New Jersey over the next few days, but not so much here in Vermont.
We had a lot of dense morning fog this morning, but it was burning off pretty quickly as I wrote this around 9 a.m. today. It'll be a nice one, though high clouds will start to filter in this afternoon, especially south and west of Interstate 89. With low humidity and highs in the 70s, we shouldn't be bummed if the sun dims a bit this afternoon.
TUESDAY
A weird one. Southwest Vermont looks like it will barely escape the risk of super heavy rains and severe thunderstorms. Meanwhile, Vermont's Northeast Kingdom, which really needs the rain, will miss out.
A nasty little weather disturbance will ride southeastward along that stalled front I talked about above. That disturbance will hurl batches of torrential rain and severe thunderstorms from western New York to the New Jersey and maybe southern New England.
Southwest Vermont will be on the fringe of this. Places like Bennington could get a good half inch or more of rain out of this. More if the disturbance comes a little closer. Amounts will taper off as you had north and east such that the Northeast Kingdom will probably see no rain.
Central Vermont will see just light showers. Highs will be in the 70s, with maybe some upper 60s south under the thicker clouds and rain
WEDNESDAY
Things start to get a litle more interesting here. A storm system will come at us, pushing that stalled front at us as it does so.
All this will push some heavier rain through Vermont, especially in the afternoon and evening, as it looks now. We're still lacking details on how heavy the rain will be, where any thunderstorms might set up, and whether they will be any flooding risk
For now, things look pretty tame in Vermont. Maybe not so tame a little south of here, but that's their problem.
Parts of southern Vermont could easily see two inches of rain out of this system, so that will be the area to really keep an eye on. A broad band centered on Route 4 would see more than an inch. The rest of the state would get a half inch to an inch. Decent, but not boffo.
As always, I expect these totals will be adjusted up or down a bit before we get to Wednesday.
Severe thunderstorms looks like they'll stay to our south, probably south of a Rochester, New York to NYC line. The Mid-Atlantic states are in for it, as they could see severe weather and flash floods daily Tuesday through Friday.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY
The storm will be to our east by then, but sort of linger, aide by a pool of cool air overhead. That keeps the risk of clouds and showers going. The showers will be light, and large parts of the day will be dry. Thursday has the highest risk of showers. Friday looks like it will have long dry periods in between scattered showers, and Saturday looks like the showers will be few and far between.
Again, this is a peek a few days into the future, so expect adjustments.
Overall. this is a hopeful week to at least temporarily stall a potentially building drought in Vermont. Extended forecasts beyond Saturday suggest a week or two of below normal precipitation, so that would be a bummer.
But, at least things aren't shaping up to be nearly as bad as last year's drought.
The tragic aftermath of the epic Nepal flood last week. We're not 100 percent sure yet whether climate change was a contributing factor to this calamity. However scientists say a warming world increases the odds something like this will happen again in Nepal, or anywhere else with tall mountains and glaciers.
You've probably seen those horrific images by now of that impossibly enormous flash flood that blasted down a Nepalese river valley this week.
The news on the aftermath keeps getting more and more tragic and horrifying.
As of early Sunday, the death toll from the wild flood stood at 794, according to the BBC. Another 2,502 people are missing.
The flood occurred on the Nepal-Tibet border, but many foreigners were in the disaster zone. India reports 320 missing people. China has nearly 100 nationals missing. Ninety people from the United States are also missing. So are dozens of people from Ukraine, Malaysia, Australia, the UK and other countries.
There were some bright spots of survival. A school headmaster made a snap decision to evacuate 900 studentsin the building after hearing reports something was wrong upstream. He also got word to another 800 students who were on the way to school to stay uphill and away from the school.
All the students ran up a hill and survived. The headmaster said that had he waited another 10 minutes, himself and all the students would have died. He could have made another decision. The school was a fair distance above the river and normally would not have been threatened by floods. This time was different.
The Nepalese calamity was shocking, beyond tragic, and scary as hell. And something like this could happen again as climate change warms the planet and thaws ice and permafrost on tall mountains around the world.
WHAT HAPPENED
We don't yet know whether climate change had a hand in causing the tragedy in Nepal. It could have been a freak occurrence. More research on the disaster needs to be completed before we can draw firm conclusions. A full understanding of what happened will take months.
"High-resolution images taken by satellite monitoring company Planet Labs show the site of the apparent landslide high in the Himalayas, close to the Nepal-China border." (Editor's note: China claims Tibet, but Tibetan exiles dispute that. The China in that quote is actually Tibet). ....."In the 'before' image a glacier can be seen looming some 4,000 feet above a narrow valley, emptying into the meandering Lhende River.
Afterward, the glacier appears smaller by about 2 million square feet - equal to the area of about 25 professional soccer fields. The valley is strewn with ice and mud. And the river is swollen beyond its banks, submerging the surrounding vegetation beneath murky brown floodwater."
When the glacier and rocks collapsed into the valley, seismographs detected it. At first geologist thought there had been an earthquake measuring 5.2 on he Richter scale, but the vibrations detected were the actual glacial collapse,not an earthquake.
Friction of the rocks and avalanche debris as it fell 1200 meters (nearly 4,000 feet) melted some of the ice. By the time the whole thing reached the valley it was a slurry, like wet cement. The New York Times was able toobtain and verify a videoof huge chunks of ice falling from the Langtang Lirung mountain and crashing to the valley floor below.
The debris briefly blocked the river on the valley floor and water piled up behind all those rocks and ice. But this wasn't a classic glacial lake outburst.
Those outbursts are caused by meltwater trapped behind glacial ice. It finally breaks through, and a rush of water flows downstream.
This was much worse. Water behind that enormous pile of unstable debris finally collapsed it, and the huge volume of slurry raced downstream. As it roared downstream, the mass of water and debris absorbed more trees, rocks and other debris, making the onrushing tidal wave larger and more powerful.
Nobody in the valley below knew what was about to hit them. It hadn't rained much in the days prior to the huge flood. It was rather sunny and nice that day. For many, the first warning was the roar of the onrushing debris, mud and water. It was too late to escape.
CLIMATE CHANGE?
As I mentioned above, we don't yet know if climate change had anything to do with the calamity in Nepal.
However, those rising temperatures across the globe thaws permafrost in high cold mountains. That permafrost is sometimes the "glue" that holds rock and ice together atop steep mountain slopes. Melt the permafrost and everything falls apart.
Scientists are saying that fact makes disasters like this one more likely in the coming years. Not only in Himalayan mountains, but any high mountain range in the world with glaciers clinging to their upper slopes.
As the Washington Post notes, we have seen several glacial collapse disasters in recent years, either through the actual collapse or the floods they often cause. Glacial collapses buried a village in Switzerland in May, 2025.
Investigators want more information on exactly what happened in that Himalayan mountain valley. And in the rocks and glacier above.
The fear is this type of thing will happen more frequently. "Glaciers are going to shrink and melt. Permafrost....will be warming and weakening and degrading over time. You'll get landslides and debris flows.....You take all that together and you can say climate change is going to have a destabilizing effect on these high mountain regions,"said Simon Cook, a University of Dundee glaciologist, who is part of a team reviewing satellite images that show where the disaster began.
The planet's tectonics might have worked in concert with climate change to cause the calamity.
The glacier involved in the disaster is way up high on a Himalayan mountain called Langtang Lirung, with an elevation of 23,734 feet. At least right now.
Langtang Lirung, like the rest of the Himalayas are slowly rising due to the collision of tectonic platesdating back tens of millions of years. The Himalayan mountains continue to grow in elevation at roughly the rate of 0.3 inches per year. Over millennia, that's thousands of feet.
Glaciers have been on these mountains for millennia, too. As the mountains grow taller, they ever so slowly get steeper. Over thousands of years, the steep slopes become too much for the glaciers, and pieces of them break off.
Now, with the permafrost melting, making the rocks and the ice become more and more unglued, the chances of those steep slope glacier collapses happening prematurely have increased exponentially.
Early warning systems in the region where this disaster happened weren't great. Let's hope governments upgrade these systems in Nepal, and near other risky mountains, including some in the United States.
Videos:
The giant, sudden flood overwhelms and destroys a hydroelectric dam that was under construction. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.
This one has been all over social media, but it's still incredible dramatic and scary. A family is trapped on the upper floors of a house amid the raging torrent of the Nepal flood. Somehow the house remained standing and the family survived.Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.
This is a good video with several clips that give you an idea of the breadth and power of the extreme Nepal deluge. Click on this link to view,or if you see the image below, click on that.
One video, taken from one location, shows how quickly the disaster escalated and how fast it engulfed surprisingly large areas, including some that at first you would have thought were safely above flood level. Click on this link to view,or if you see the image below, click on that:
Somewhat ominous skies greeted early risers over St. Albans, Vermont this morning. If forecasts are correct. we could have a week of badly needed off and on rain over the next several days.
We got through another gorgeous Saturday in Vermont, with our blue skies and a few puffy clouds in the skies. I savored the gorgeous end of August weather.
The signs of autumn keep hitting though. This time of year, some of the leaves on the trees are looking tired and ragged after a long summer of insects, wind, dry spells and hot days.
Also, with a high temperature of 77 degrees and a low of 50, the average temperature in Burlington Saturday was 63.5 making it coolest day since June 7.
As nice as Saturday was, we could use the rain and the National Weather Service is offering hope for a potentially wet week across Vermont.
The NWS office in South Burlington has at least a chance of showers each day today through next Saturday, except maybe tomorrow.
It's unclear how much rain we'll actually get. We could use a lot of rain, and we might get that. Then again, at least parts of Vermont might not get all that much. It all depends on the path of several weather disturbances this week zipping northwest to southeast across New England and the Mid-Atlantic states.
Current forecasts give a half inch to an inch of rain today through Wednesday morning across most of the Green Mountain State, with more coming after that. NOAA has Vermont receiving one to two inches of rain over the next seven days.
Those predictions often shift dramatically, so we can't guarantee we'll actually get that much rain.
If this forecast plays out, it could blunt a developing drought in northern Vermont and give a much needed rain in southern Vermont, which is still drought-free, for now.
Let's get into the detailed forecast like we do almost every day.
TODAY
A few showers have already skittered across northern Vermont this morning and more is on the way. I don't think today will be as decent a day as first thought especially in northern Vermont. There's a chance of showers almost everywhere in Vermont. Showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder are more likely in northern Vermont.
The forecast for today has become a little more dismal because moisture in the atmosphere all the way from the Pacific Ocean has made it to an area just south of an approaching cold front in Quebec. Highs today will reach the 70s.
Not everybody in the north will get wet, but many areas will. The showers will taper off after sunset as the cold front slips quietly south through Vermont.
MONDAY
The front should sag south and west of Vermont and oriented in a northwest to southeast orientation. The front should still be far enough south and west so that we should be out of the rain. The sun should come out, especially in central and northern Vermont. We should see highs in the 70s again.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
The front to out south and west will mark the battle line between coolish air in Quebec and horribly humid and very warm air in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. The cool-ish air should win out here in Vermont, though it won't exactly be cold. Daily highs should be in the 70s, close to normal for this time of year.
The front will slowly approach Vermont. Nobody is really sure how fast it will come at us. Meanwhile, disturbances will ride northwest to southeast along the front, carrying batches of rain on the north side of the front, and thunderstorms to the south.
The position of the front will dictate where and when it rains in Vermont and how much. It's too soon to pick out exactly how this will play out. However, so far at least, it looks like the front will stay near or southwest of Vermont.
That means potential severe thunderstorms should stay mostly in the Ohio Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic states.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND
Another front from the west should begin to sweep everything to the east. As it does so, we'll probably keep up with the rain and showers.
I'm not sure how fast this thing will clear Vermont, so showers could continue Friday and maybe into Saturday.
It turns out two tornadoes hit in and around Wilton, a community between Saratoga and Glens Falls, New York, less than 30 mies from the Vermont border.
The main tornado was a high-end EF-1, with top winds of 110 mph, According to a report from the National Weather Service office in Albans. An EF-2 twister has winds of 111 to 135 mph.
I'm impressed that the tornado caused no deaths or injuries, especially since it went through a residential area and crossed the busy Northway, otherwise known as Interstate 87.
A second, weaker tornado touched down nearby. The brief tornado touched down near Ganesvoort, New York. It had top winds of 85 mph, and was only on the ground for less than a quarter mile.
Trees crashed through the roofs of some homes. Streets were littered with trees, and cleanup crews spent the day trying to remove the debris.
The thunderstorm that produced the tornadoes eventually moved into Bennington County, Vermont. However, by the time it reached the Green Mountain State, the storm had weakened. I didn't find any reports of damage in southwest Vermont.
Some showers tried to get going in northern Vermont Friday morning as a cold front arrived, but they never really did amount to much. View here is a section of Route 105 between St. Albans and Sheldon.
Yesterday's cold front brought only sprinkles for most people. A few isolated areas got a quick shower, but the dry weather continues. We need the rain but for most of us, that's not coming for awhile.
Meanwhile I Got up this morning and I actually felt, chilly. Autumn air was streaming though the open window. Where's my fleece?
I'm not complaining about a cool comfortable morning, not at all. But it is yet another sign of an autumn looming.
TODAY
Burlington, Vermont had its coolest morning since June 9 this morning, but it wasn't all that cool in the grand scheme of things. It got down to 50 degrees at last check. We missed the record low for the date by a full nine degrees. So this wasn't exactly unusual.
Most other Vermont towns were in the mid and upper 40s at dawn. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York appears to have gotten down to 36 degrees. All this sets the stage for a gorgeous day, as we've been advertising for days.
As expected, there were plenty of foggy spots in the mountain valley early this morning. Those were starting to clear up as I wrote this at around 7:30 this morning.
We are still in for a gorgeous day today. Sunshine will mix with some clouds. There was a patch of clouds over the northern Champlain Valley early this morning, but that should dissipate.
By afternoon, most of the scattered puffy clouds will be over the hills and mountains while broad valleys will be sunnier. The sunshine should boost temperatures into the 70s
Today will be the pick of the weekend. Though tomorrow will be OK, too.
SUNDAY
The day will start with sunshine, but some clouds will work in, especially north. That's because a weak cold front will come at us from Quebec. A few scattered showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder could develop in the afternoon and evening, probably mostly north of Route 2.
The best chance of showers are over the northern Green Mountains. Not everyone will get wet, so chances are you can eke out your outdoor plans.
Highs statewide should reach well into the 70s again, so it'll be comfortable again.
The showers will work southward Sunday night, but will be widely scattered.
MONDAY/ TUESDAY
The cold front will have gotten south of Vermont by Monday, but should stall not too far away from us. We'll get another nice day Monday as high pressure noses in from Quebec. It'll stay vaguely cool, with highs in the 70s and lows Monday night within a few degrees either side of 50.
That old cold front will start to work north as a warm front Tuesday, so I think we might see some increasing clouds. That said, we still have conflicting forecasts on whether rain will sweep through during the day, or will it hold off until later? Stay tuned.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
As I noted yesterday, at least parts of Vermont areseeing a developing drought. We could use some rain for sure. Forecasts now call for a decent rainfall. Though I'm not promising it. Too often, when a lot of rain is expected three or four or five days from now, it all dries up before it gets to us, and in the end, we get little precipitation.
But for now, a storm looks like a storm coming in will drive that warm front into Vermont, and then a cold front would quickly follow. That would give us a decent batch of rain.
We can only hope.
This weather pattern looks like it could bring another round of severe weather for parts of the Northeast. There's been so many outbreaks of such weather this summer, For now, it looks like the severe weather might pass south of Vermont. But we'll need to watch this weather pattern, in case the trouble sneaks north.
The weather pattern will feature channeled flow against
a deep layer high in the southeastern US and a strong, compact upper
low shifting slowly eastward across Canada. Systems with Pacific
origins will get sucked into this fast flow bringing rounds of rain.
Surface high pressure in far eastern Canada will try and keep warm,
humid air from lifting northeastwards, and so we will be on the
stable and dry side of things for the most part on Tuesday. We still
should observe increased clouds and some rain along the southern
portions of our forecast area. A stronger area of low pressure will
develop over the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, and that should
provide the focus for more active weather conditions. The interface
of dry, stable conditions on the western periphery of departing high
pressure and humid, modified tropical Pacific air will create the
potential for showers and thunderstorms beginning late Wednesday
afternoon. Elevated instability could allow thunderstorm activity to
persist overnight before the system departs early Thursday morning.
Synoptic scale models are starting to depict this feature as the one
that produces most of our rainfall next week. Dynamically, the
system appears quite vigorous and simulated IR satellite off the GFS
is showing the potential for cool cloud tops associated with the
elevated convection and strong isentropic lift. We`ll continue to
keep an eye on this feature.
The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates drought conditions have started in the Northeast Kingdom (orange shading) Yellow areas are abnormally dry, which is a precursor to drought.
About 13 percent of the state is now in drought, the report noted. The area in drought in in western Essex County, northern Caledonia County and eastern Orleans County.
The area of abnormal dryness, which is a precursor to drought, also expanded over the past week. The dry area is in most northern Vermont, and in eastern Vermont north of White River Junction.
As of Tuesday, when the drought data is compiled, nearly 42 percent of the state was abnormally dry or in drought. Last week, 32 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry.
This is the first time any part of the state has been in drought since the week of May 14, when the lower Connecticut Valley south of White River Junction was in drought. Heavy rain erased that area of drought during the second half of May.
Yesterday, a little rain fell in parts of the Northeast Kingdom during some thunderstorms, but the rain didn't amount to much. Mostly a quarter inch or less. A few pinpoint spots with a little more, but the rain won't change the drought.
Short term, over the next week or two are somewhat encouraging in terms of rainfall. We have numerous chances of rain over the next two weeks, but it's unclear how heavy that rain might be.
Once we get into September, chances increase that storm systems create a more widespread, steady rain rather than the hit and miss thunderstorms we see in the summer.
That said, Septembers can be quite dry. Large high pressure systems often slow down or stall over northern New England and southeast Canada in the early autumn. That creates many consecutive days of dry weather. If several such high pressure systems appear, droughts can easily intensify.
This drought is not nearly as bad as the one that hit last summer and autumn. The current drought in the Northeast Kingdom is considered "moderate." By October of last year, virtually all of Vermont was experiencing major or extreme drought.
It would take a very strong shift toward almost no rain to see a repeat of last year.
A likely tornado near Wilton, NY on Thursday. The storm was only about 25 miles west of the Vermont border at the time. The storm that produced the probable tornado ended up in northern Bennington County, Vermont later, but it had weakened considerably by then, causing little or no damage in Vermont,
It looks like Vermont escaped much trouble from the volatile atmosphere over the region yesterday, but it was another close call.
The only damage report I've seen in Vermont so far is in Westmore, not too far from the western shore of Lake Willoughby. A couple of pine trees were tossed down by severe thunderstorm winds very late in the afternoon.
Things were much worse early last evening a little west of Vermont in Saratoga County, New York
A likely tornado touched sown around Wilton, New York. The town is between Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls, New York and a little less than 30 miles west of the Vermont border near Rupert.
Video on social mediashows what appears to be a tornado funnel looking north from Saratoga Springs amid what is clearly a severe thunderstorm. The video also appears to show intense rear flank downdraft winds behind the possible tornado.
The second floor of house in Wilton was damaged, and numerous trees were reported down. Additional tree damage was reported across several spots in Gansvoort, which is about five miles east of Wilton.
The tornado appears to have crossed Interstate 87 (the Northway) near Wilton and Gansvoort. Fallen trees closed travel lanes.
So far, no injuries have been reported.
The National Weather Service office in Albany, New York isheaded out to Saratoga County today, especially around the town of Wilton for a look-see to determine for sure whether that was a tornado, or just severe, damaging winds.
The supercell that caused the likely tornado in New York continued on toward Bennington County, Vermont but weakened as it did so. I've not seen any damage reports out of southwest Vermont from the storm.
We have an interlude of calmer weather coming in. No more tornadoes for the foreseeable future. Let's get into the daily forecasts
TODAY
One last cold front with this latest weather system is coming through today. We started out with relatively mild air, along with moderately high humidity.
That won't last.
The front might fire up some widely scattered showers or even a rumble of thunder in a few places. But those showers won't amount to much and many places won't see any rain at all in the north. There's a high chance that almost nobody in southern Vermont will see any rain, either.
It's too bad there won't be widespread rain. we need it. Spoiler: I'll have more on the lack of rain in a separate post later today.
The bonus with this front is we'll get another whoosh of pleasant weather. This will arguably be the coolest air we've seen since early June. .Cold fronts are starting to have more oomph now as we get near September.
Highs today will only be in the low 70s north. Southern valleys could make it to around 80 degrees as they will be the last to see the cold front. Much cooler and less humid air will keep flowing in this evening.
SATURDAY
Still looking like a beauty. It'll start off chilly. Another sign of autumn. Most of us will be in the 40s at dawn. There could be a couple upper 30s in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. Readings near Lake Champlain will be in the low 50s.
As usual on calm mornings this time of year, we'll start the day with patchy dense fog. But that'll burn off quickly to reveal a sunny, comfortable day. Some puffy clouds will decorate the sky, especially over the mountains. If you are in the mountains, I guess it'll be only partly sunny. Highs should reach the 70s pretty much area wide.
No complaints, though. If you were planning an outdoor event for Saturday, the weather gods are totally with you.
SUNDAY
Another cold front should approach Vermont from Quebec and Ontario. It'll set off clouds and maybe some showers north, but it should still be an OK day, as it looks now. The front is expected to stall in a northwest to southeast orientation somewhere near the Green Mountain State Sunday night. This has implications for the weather next week.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
That stalled front will meander somewhere over the Northeast, but it's unclear exactly where. It's also unknown how little disturbances running along the front will behave, and whether this means any decent rains for Vermont.
A weather set up like this caused some flooding in Rutland County, Vermont in early September, 1985, but flooding from this coming weather pattern is very much a long shot. I wouldn't worry about it.
A possible second cold front will probably sweep it all away maybe next Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned.
A busy National Weather Service radar as of shortly before 5:45 p.m. today. Quite a few storms in New York headed into Vermont at that hour. Still a chance that one or two of them could be severe this evening.
The storms we expected in Vermont are generally slightly later than we expected, but they are firing up.
A couple storms did form ahead of the main batch. On strong thunderstorm zipped through part of southeastern Vermont earlier this afternoon.
Late this afternoon, a batch of thunderstorms developed in the Northeast Kingdom, At 5:11 p.m., a severe thunderstorm warning went up southeast of Newport, with gusts of 60 mph possibly.
However, the bulk of the severe weather, as originally expected, looks like it will stay mostly to the southwest. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for central and eastern New York, and that watch extends into Bennington County, Vermont.
A watch means there could be a severe storm. A warning means a severe storm is happening or is about to.
Storms should move through Vermont over the next few hours.
As of 5:30 p.m., the storm I'm watching the most was approaching Glens Falls, New York from the southwest. It was carrying a severe thunderstorm warning. That rotating storm prompted a tornado warning,issued at 5:45 p.m., for an area a little north and west of Saratoga Springs, New York.
If it holds together, it could spell real trouble. Most likely in southern Rutland County or northern Bennington County if it keeps going on its current projections.
Overall, the weather setup this evening isn't perfect for severe storms, as there's a variety of weak weather fronts around that are keeping thunderstorms from becoming focused and strong. But there's enough potential for the risk of a few more strong to maybe severe storms for the rest of this evening.
These storms are popping up quickly and sometimes fading quickly only to rebuild, so expect a few little surprises with storms for the next few hours. This could happen anywhere in Vermont. The vast majority of us will not see severe weather. But an isolated spot or two might. Other areas could see some relatively strong storms with gusty winds, even if they don't quite meet the criteria for severe storms.
Things should taper off nicely by later this evening, with only widely scattered, light showers overnight.
There might be a few more scattered showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder tomorrow morning and early afternoon as a secondary cold front comes through. Things should whoosh toward much less humid air later in the day.
The world tied the record for the hottest July, according to NOAA. If anything, August might be even further above normal as El Nino takes hold
As I noted in a previous post, El Nino is building on climate change to bring the world's temperatures to new heights.
While we're heading into the last days of August, we see the July data is fully available.
Data released about a week ago indicated July, 2026 tied with 2024 as the hottest on record. This is according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. Since July is normally the world's hottest month of the year, so 2026 and 2024 are the world's hottest month on record.
The Julys of 2023, 2024 and 2026 were the only Julys that were 1 degree or more Celsius above the pre-industrial average.
Climate change has been going on for quiet awhile now, it's just accelerating lately. For instance, the last time the world had a July that was at least a little bit cooler than average was in 1971.
Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere were easily the hottest on record, breaking the previous 2024 record by 0.12 degrees Celsius, or 0.22 degrees Fahrenheit.
Hot Oceans
Even more ominously, global ocean temperatures reached a record high for July. About 70 percent of the world is covered by oceans. Heat is released into the atmosphere, where it causes mischief in the form of record heat, droughts, and unusually vicious storms.
Overall, on average, world ocean temperatures peak in the spring, then declines until June, then rise to a secondary peak in early August, then slowly begins to decline again,
This year, the global average ocean temperature rose rapidly since July, reaching an all time record of 21.1 degrees C as of August 21. This odd late season increase has almost everything to do with the burgeoning El Nino. But since ocean temperatures were already elevated by climate change, it was easy for the oceans breaking records.
Relative to average, the warmest places were most of North America, Greenland and Iceland, western Europe, Central Africa, northwest Asia, parts of Russia and Siberia.
As usual in this climate-changed world, there were few areas that were on the cold side, and most of the "cold" areas were just barely, compared to the 20th century averages. The cool areas were Alaska, the persistent cold blob in the Atlantic south of Iceland, parts of Antarctica, and, marginally, parts of northern and central Europe.
UNITED STATES
The Lower 48 of the United States had its hottest month on record in July. All states were warmer than average.
In the United States, we had the hottest month on record in the Lower 48. Not just hottest July, ,though the month is usually the hottest of the year.
Every state in the Lower 48 was warmer than normal, which is an extreme rarity. Even when the Lower 48 has an overall warm month, a few states are at least a little cooler than normal.
While everyplace was warm, the hottest relative to average were in the central and northern Rockies and in the northern Plains.
When you add up all the states that were way warmer than normal and sort of warmer than normal, we end up with the hottest month on record for the Lower 48.
Wyoming had its hottest July on record. Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and North Dakota had their second hottest July on record. A total of 18 states had one of their top ten warmest Julys on record. Vermont had its 31st hottest July on record.
Despite the dry theme, there were intense local floods, including in the Texas Hill Country and in the Northeast.
New England had some of the most extreme disparities in precipitation. Southern New England was wet, with Rhode Island seeing its sixth wettest July on record. By contrast, Maine had its fourth driest July on record.
Vermont had its 47 driest July out of the past 132 years.
Meanwhile, August around the world has been running super hot. It's widely expected to be the hottest on record. We'll have updates, of course, when complete data for August becomes available.
Areas in dark green and yellow have chances of severe thunderstorms today. Areas in yellow have a somewhat greater chance of severe storms than in the dark green areas.
We're in for another active day of weather across Vermont today, but as always, there will be winners and losers.
A handful of places could get too much wind, too much hail, too much rain, too much lightning. A few other places won't get the rain they need.
We'll have a storm risk all day, but the big hours to watch will between 3 and 8 p.m. All of Vermont has at least a small risk of isolated severe storms. The best chance of severe storms will be west of the Green Mountains from Middlebury south.
But, again, anyone in Vermont and surrounding areas could have a severe storm today.
A warm front is working northward through Vermont this morning. That front could touch off some scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning. I noticed on radar a few small downpours near Glens Falls, New York heading northeastward toward Vermont as of 8 a.m. today.
You'll notice the humidity increase rapidly this morning and early this afternoon as we get the ingredients in place for this afternoon's expected rough weather.
The storms will probably come through in lines or clusters, with damaging winds the main threat. There is a very, very low chance that one or two storms could start rotating enough to produce a brief spin up tornado. It's been that kind of summer.
Another issue is therisk of local flash flooding.The ground is dry enough so that a few downpours shouldn't cause any issues. However, we could get some "training" storms, the ones that line up and go one right after another over the same spot, like boxcars moving along a train track.
If there is any flash flooding, it will be in pretty small local areas. Nothing widespread with this. The best chance of local flooding should be in the southern half of Vermont. As an early guess, I'd be tempted to especially watch Rutland and Windsor counties. But we can't completely rule out some water mischief in the north, either.
So, we have the usual advice. It's probably not the best day to head out onto the lake or go hiking in the Green Mountains. Pay attention to the sky. Dark clouds gathering to the west? Rumbles of thunder? That's your cue to get indoors.
As always, the National Weather Service will issue warnings and advisories as needed, and the local TV stations will cut in to broadcasting to provide updates if parts of the state are under threat of a bad storm.
This probably won't be the most extensive severe weather outbreak ever, or even the most extensive one of this stormy summer. But it is something to take seriously if severe weather threatens.
FRIDAY
The actual cold front should go through tomorrow morning, with not much fanfare. There could be some showers in the morning. The front might be slow enough so that it could squeak out a weak thunderstorm in southeast Vermont, but no biggie. Then some clearing and more refreshing air arrive in the afternoon and evening.
SATURDAY
Another winning weather Saturday is in the cards. Dawn will break cool, with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 50. A lot of river valleys will be pretty foggy, too. But the fog will burn off to sunny skies with afternoon highs in the 70s. The humidity will stay at refreshing levels, too,
SUNDAY AND BEYOND
It looks like we'll be in a zone Sunday afternoon and into the week where a weather front will either windshield wiper back and forth, north to south and back north again for a few days. Or it will stall sort of near us.
That make it hard to forecast this far in advance. Suffice it to say we'll have daily shower chances Sunday through Tuesday at least.
Interestingly,NOAA's six to ten day weather outlook, issued every day in mid afternoon, has swung decided warm and wet for the opening days of September. It's a long range forecast, so things could change. But it does point toward the chance of some weird late season severe weather to open up the first few days of the new month.
Dolly Parton, who died Tuesday at the age of 80, was a generous philanthropist who gave away millions of dollars. That included money to victims of weather and climate disasters.
We're all reeling from the passing of Dolly Parton, that bundle of energy and joy, who, with her thoughtful songwriting, her exuberant public image and her philanthropy, made her an absolute national treasure.
Her generosity has been widely reported. The most cited example is her Imagination Library, which has provided more than 300 million books to children in the United States and other nations.
Parton stepped up when weather and climate disasters hit, too. Especially when they affected the area where she was born and raised.
On November 28, 2016, a raging wildfire swept into Gatlinburg, Tennessee and surrounding areas of Sevier County, Tennessee. It caused 14 deaths, 130 injuries, burned 1,684 structures and forced, 14,000 people to evacuate from the East Tennessee mountain tourist destination.
Parton was on tour when the fires hit, and she called right after the wildfires and asked what can we do and bow quickly can we do it, said David Dotson, CEO of Dollywood Foundationin a 2018 interview.
"The My People's fund (part of Parton's philanthropy) gave $1,000 per month to about 900 families impacted by the fire - regardless of income - for six months. But the Dollywood Foundation received so many donations they increased the amount to $5,000 a month. They also opened an additional organization called Mountain Tough to help families on a case-by-case basis and clean up homesites."
In total, $12.5 million dollars went to the people of Sevier County from the foundation."
In September, 2024, the devastating floods from Hurricane Helene spilled over into far eastern Tennessee's the waters raged through neighboring North Carolina. The day of the floods, she announced $1 million donation, matched buy her Dollywood companies and their partners.
Oddly enough, the next hurricane on the list of this year's Atlantic storms will be named Dolly. That wasn't a decision made upon her death. The hurricane names were planned out years ago. There is currently a weather disturbance in east-central tropical Atlantic Ocean that might or might not develop into Tropical Storm Dolly.
Forecasters are unsure whether that storm will form, and if it does, how strong it might get and where it might go.
North Carolina Emergency Management said in a Facebook statement that if a Hurricane Dolly, or any other storm threatens your care, maybe we can help a neighbor, a friend, or a loved one prepare for the storm. Maybe we can buy stuff for someone's disaster preparedness kit, all in the spirit of Dolly Parton's generosity.
The following Dolly Parton quote can be applied to a storm or any other situation: "We cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails."
A very of Jay Peak on a lovely late afternoon yesterday as viewed from near Enosburgh, Vermont.
OK, Tuesday's weather wasn't bad at all, as a low morning overcast in parts of Vermont broke up into puffy clouds mixed with blue skies. And it was cool, or at least cool-ish, with a hint of autumn in the air.
After a comfortable night, we have a beauty on the way to day, with sunshine, low humidity and comfortable afternoon temperatures into the 70s to around 80.
Today will be the 17th day in a row with a remarkable stretch of steady temperatures. Daily high temperatures in Burlington have ranged only nine degrees between 73 and 82 degrees.
That steady streak might be slightly broken tomorrow. You't think that since we're headed toward fall, it would be a cool high temperature. Nope, it might be on the warm side.
Here are the details on Thursday, since it will be kind of a busy day.
THURSDAY
South winds will import warmer, more humid air into Vermont. The expected high temperature in Burlington is 84 degrees. That's nothing special for late August but still the warmest since August 9.
A cold front will be approaching. The combination of that front, the warmth and the humidity, as is so often the case in the summer, is a recipe for thunderstorms. Especially since the front will be approaching during peak heating in the afternoon.
As nice as this summer has been in Vermont, it's also been a stormy one, and it's looking like we have another round to go through.
For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk, a one out of five alert level for severe storms. That means we might see some isolated instances of damming winds or hail Thursday afternoon or evening.
The SPC even has us in a very, very low, but not zero risk of another tornado in Vermont. We've already had two tornadoes, and at least three close misses with tornado weather, the most recent of which was during severe weather inFranklin County back on August 10.
It does look like there's a slightly higher chance of severe storms a little to our south, in central New York and eastern Pennsylvania, and we'll keep an eye out on whether that somewhat higher alert level moves north toward us.
As always with these thunderstorms, it will be hit and miss. Some of us will get nailed with lightning, wind and downpours and others will be left out. In general, we'll probably only get a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a few spots getting cheated out of any rain at all, and a very few others getting a good inch of rain if they get hit by more than one thunderstorms.
FRIDAY
Cold fronts bring colder air - duh! - so it will be cooler. It's still August, so don't reach for the ski parkas and ear muffs, it won't get that cold. Highs will be in the 70s, under partly sunny skies. There might be some lingering light showers, and the day may prove rather cloudy over the northern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom.
There might even be a rumble of thunder or two mixed with with the showers. But overall, rainfall will be light. The vast majority of us will get less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Some places will get nothing, or just sprinkles.
And here's another subtle sign of autumn: The temperature in Burlington might go under 50 degrees Friday night and early Saturday for the first time since June 3. This might among the longest times spent Burlington has ever spent above 50 degrees on record, but it's not the record longest.
It was continuously above 50 degrees from June 6 to September 21, 2023, for instances. A few other summers in the past decade or two have had long stretches above 50 like this, but it used to be unheard of. We're living in a warmer world now.
SATURDAY
Our trend of lovely Vermont summer Saturdays continues. After a cool start (see above) with patchy fog in the valleys, it should turn sunny and mild, with low humidity once again. At least if current forecasts are correct.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND
So far, Sunday is looking like another gorgeous day before shower chances return on Monday. How the showers play out early next week is still a big question mark, but it's nothing to worry about for now.
Shower clouds billow up over St. Albans, Vermont yesterday. Numerous, small thunderstorms raced across northern Vermont during part of yesterday afternoon, but they deposited little rain
A mini-swarm of mini thunderstorms erupted over northern and central Vermont during the early and mid-afternoon.
But the vast majority of people who wanted or needed a good soaking of rain for their gardens didn't get it. The downpours were small in area, and moved on almost as soon as they began.
I heard occasional thunder here in St Albans, Vermont between 12:45 and 2:45 p.m, but collected a whopping 0.02 inches of rain. It remained dusty in the gardens once the sun came back out and I was out there watering to reverse the wilt.
It was a little cool out there, too, another sign that fall is on our doorstep,
I also noticed another little sign of autumn out in western New York over the past couple of days.
In the summer, Great Lakes water is cooler team the air above it. That arrangement is a cloud killer. All through the spring and summer, you'll often seen satellite photos showing absolutely clear skies over the Great Lakes and on the immediate shorelines. But just inland, the sky is cluttered with puffy cumulus clouds.
The only way you can get lake effect rains, (or snows!) is if the water temperature is warmer than the atmosphere above it. In this case, you'll often see streamers of clouds and showers coming off the lakes.
For the first time this season, the lakes were warmer than the air above. So, those lake effect showers cranked up over the past couple days. At least it wasn't snow.
It'll be a while before western New York - and Vermont - sees snow. It'll still be comfortable out there over the next several days. But it's getting more and more unlikely that we'll see another big heat wave this year.
Let's get into it:
TODAY
A little more rain fell on some northern areas overnight. Not enough to really soak anything down, but OK. Anything helps if your garden or lawn is a little dry.
For the rest of the day, we're still getting some influence from an old storm up on Quebec, so we do have a risk of some showers through the day, especially north and mountains.
Only some places will get rain, and those that do won't receive much. Those places that do see rain should have only less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Except maybe, just maybe in the far northern Champlain Valley. Showers have been a bit persistent there early this morning.
There is less of a chance of thunder today as yesterday, as the instability is a little less.
It'll be another cool-ish day, maybe even a bit cooler than yesterday. Highs should only make it into the low and mid 70s. Maybe upper 60s in some northern high spots. Another sign that autumn is coming. to yet, but it's close.
WEDNESDAY
Should be a really nice day. Sunshine, highs in the 70s, low humidity, you can't beat that.
THURSDAY
The next weather front moves in during the day. Ahead of the cold front, some warmer, somewhat humid air will come in. Nothing oppressive. Just low 80s, and dew points in the 60s.
Scattered showers and storms will arrive in the afternoon and continue into the evening.
FRIDAY:
Lingering showers and cooler weather, as we get into another cool, slightly unstable flow of northwesterly winds.
SATURDAY/SUNDAY
So far at least, next weekend is looking good. The forecast can change, but for now, it looks like we might have yet another Saturday. And the good weather could last into Sunday.
After that, forecasts are divided, but we might get our first cool, September-like batch of showers early next week. It's an uncertain forecast, so stay tuned.
This map shows where sea surface temperatures are above or below normal and by how much. The darker the shading, the greater the departure from normal. As you can see, El Nino has super charged the warmth of the Pacific ocean off the west coast of South America.
The strong El Nino is under way, but the real fun doesn't start until later this autumn or winter.
The El Nino is forecast to become the most intense one on record.
To set us up, we need to explain El Nino.
It's a periodic warming of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. When it happens, it tends to warm the entire planet up. It also causes areas of extra storminess, and other areas of extra dryness around the world.
El Ninos are now happening on top of climate change, so it's a double whammy. Fossil fuel emissions are warming the Earth's atmosphere long term. El Nino is temporarily making it even worse.
Even more troublesome, since the current El Nino is likely the strongest on record, the extremes will probably get more extreme. .
As ABC News reports, a typical El Nino usually brings warmer than normal temperatures across the northern tier of the United States, but the effect can be less pronounced over the Northeast.
In the Northeast, there can be an uptick in nor'easters which can interrupt a relative warm winter with harsh winter storms.
El Nino typically increases the odds of above-average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic and coastal areas of the Northeast as storms often move up the coast. Farther inland, drier-than-average conditions and less snow are more likely.
The El Nino winter of 1957-58 was cold and snowy in the Green Mountain State, but that was an exception. Most El Ninos give us at least relatively warm winters.
Very strong El Ninos in 1982-83 and in 1997-98 yielded winters that were slightly warmer than normal with below normal snowfall. However, the 1983 El Nino year gave us a very wet and snowy winter. The 1998 El Nino year brought Vermont's epic historic January ice storm. I'm not saying this El Nino will create another repeat of that ice storm, but it's potential evidence of weird weather here in Vermont.
Then came a very strong El Nino in 2015-16. Snowfall was well below normal in Vermont that winter. And it was the hottest winter on record.
Hottest on record, that is, until 2023-24. Another strong El Nino hit, and that became the hottest winter in Vermont, at least as measured in Burlington.
There's no guarantee we'll have the same result. There could be other factors that give us a cold winter. So we'll just have to wait and see.
ELSEWHERE
The trouble spotsduring El Ninos are typically in the southern half of the United States. That means southern California in particularly might be in for flooding rains and landslides. Usually the Gulf Coast states endure frequent winter thunderstorms, flooding and tornadoes.
Globally, since El Nino warms up an already climate-changed hot world, there's a very good chance that 2027 will become Earth's hottest year on record, beating the record set in 2024 during the previous El Nino.
Either drought' or crop-wrecked storms will likely hit some of the most productive food growing parts of the world. Political instability and income inequality are rising, thanks in large part to certain buffoons in the United States government.
The combination of El Nino, climate change food disruptions and political stupidity isn't necessarily the end of the world, despite what you read in some corners of social media. But it could lead to famine in some areas, deadly storms in other spots. People will unfortunately die because of all this.
There is precedence for this. An El Nino in 1877 was the record holder until this year for the strongest El Nino. Global famines that year from weather disruptions killed 50 million people.
It looks like the next year or so will not be a pleasant one for humanity. And those problems will in part go on past 2027. So brace yourself boys and girls, you are in for some unpleasant surprises with the climate, your local weather, your pocketbook and your general sense of ease.
A woman endures warm, humid weather outdoors in Gary, Indiana during nearly two weeks of power outages caused by storms. Therefore, no air conditioning. Photo from the New York Times.
On August 11, a horrible storm swept through northwest Indiana, including Gary, Indiana. Winds gusted to more than 90 mph. Countless trees collapsed across power lines. Gary went dark.
In some areas, massive trees are still down and not cleared away. With the lack of power, people are running out of food and clean clothes. Also, having no power is expensive if you're on a limited income.
Everything in the freezer is destroyed and must be thrown out. People have to go through the expense of finding laundromats for cleaning clothes. They have to drive a distance away to find a gas station that has power. Non-perishable food is more expensive. Workplaces are disrupted and closed, so some people aren't getting paid.
It has been very warm and humid in and around Gary since the August 11 storm, with nights being particularly sticky. Without air conditioning, sleep has become difficult.
Schools have also been closed in most of Gary, and other areas of northwestern Indiana.
"Courtney Page-Tab, an Indiana University Indianapolis professor who studies community resilience, said health concerns grow each day of a prolonged outage. With many people using generators poor ventilation can lead to carbon monoxide poisoning. In addition, those reliant on medical devices risk having them lose their charge, while refrigerated food once safe could pose health risks as it spoils
'Nine days is a long time for a community to be without power,' Page-Tan said."
The winds in Gary reached 99 mph during the ferocious August 11 storm. Roughly 300 utility poles and 44 power transmission poles need to be repaired or replaced. And we're not even talking about the countless electrical lines that have to be hooked up again.
"These aren't simple repairs.... These are systems that are being rebuilt," said Melody Birmingham, an executive at NIPSCO's parent company.
The frustration is widespread as it can get, though. Republican Indiana Gov. Mike Braun saidthe situation is "unacceptable' and the power company needs to "step up, take this seriously, and restore power now."
Birmingham, who is herself Black, said NIPSCO is not overlooking low income residents. She said rumors to that effect are coming from social media. "We have areas that are probably affluent where we still have customers out as well.....This has nothing to do with race orally type of division," she said.
However, I have to wonder about Gary's infrastructure. The storm was clearly strong enough to wreck power poles and utility lines in the strongest, best designed systems. But I have to wonder whether Gary with its predominantly black population and relatively low income, was ignored by NIPSCO's maintenance plan over the years. I wonder if prior negligence made matters worse in Gary.
I hope somebody seriously investigates that.
However, several other factors not related to society or racism were at work.
This was a derecho, with an embedded tornado. Tornadoes have narrow paths of destruction. Had just a tornado hit Gary, there would have been power outages in just a section of the city. And since the area of tornado damage would have been relatively small, power would have been restored fairly quickly.
But this was a derecho, which is an intense, widespread batch of thunderstorms covering a wide area. The 90+ mph winds took down trees over a huge area, plunging all of Gary and surrounding towns into darkness.
The storm was widespread, so of course the damage to utilities was. Which is part of the reason why it's taking so long to fix things.
It had also been very wet in northwest Indiana before the derecho. Repeated rounds of torrential rains and severe thunderstorms softened the ground and weakened trees. When the August 11 storm hit, the winds had a much easier time knocking down the trees. Many of those trees tore down power lines as they feel.
All that said, the long power outage raises question as to how storms will affect underrepresented communities in the future.
The U.S has an immense and growing gap between the rich and poor. It's the new Gilded Age, but this time it's worse.
Affluent communities often have underground utilities, and if something goes wrong, repair crews are at their beck and call.
In poorer communities, utility lines are frequently not maintained all that well. In the short term, an intense El Nino is helping make storms more ferocious. In the long term, climate change is doing the same.
One byproduct of a warmer world could well be more and longer power outages, especially in low and moderate income communities.
Utility companies have some options when it comes togirding for climate change storms. They can cut back vegetation away from power lines more aggressively.They can strengthen poles and equipment and build in greater redundancy in the electrical system.
In the end, we're going to have this problem over and over again. The climate is getting more extreme, and the U.S is generally getting poorer and poorer at maintaining our infrastructure.
Prepare for long periods without electricity in the coming years.
A hibiscus flower on my back deck blooms amid the very steady temperatures we've had this month so far.
We had another nice comfortable day in Vermont Saturday, though, as expected it was nicer the further north and west you went.
Skies were mostly sunny in the far northwest, but rather cloudy southeast. High were in the 70s to a couple 80 degree readings in the sunshine northwest.
Today will not be so nice with showers and maybe a strong thunderstorm or two. More on that in a minute, but first, some weird Vermont climatology.
Yesterday's highs spotlighted a remarkable steady trend in temperatures. In the twelve days since August 10 daily high temperatures have ranged only between 73 and 82 degrees, as measured in Burlington. In that respect I guess you can call our recent weather boring. Especially since those temperatures are close to normal.
WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consulrecently noted on Facebook that this is the time of year that normally has the least day-to-day variation in temperature. Average is four or five degrees difference in temperature day to day in August.
But this stretch has been much more than that, with just nine degrees difference over 12 days. The same period last year had high temperatures ranging between 70 and 98 degrees. So things aren't always this steady in August.
I think the lack of variety in temperatures stems from the fact it's still summer. We don't yet have the powerful cold and warm fronts that make Vermont days wildly different between, say, Monday and Tuesday.
Also, ground and water temperatures are near their peak this time of year, and that tends to moderate the temperature.
Remarkably, over the coming seven days, the National Weather Service says afternoon highs will remain almost within the range we've had for nearly two weeks now. Between now and next Saturday, daily highs in Burlington are forecast to range between 75 to 84.
For now, then, if you don't like the weather in Vermont, you have to wait much more than a minute for it to change.
Unless you're talking about cloud cover and rainfall. For the next week or so, expect rain to pop up randomly from time to time. The sun will be in and out of the clouds. Here are the details.
TODAY
Kind of a confusing day in the weather department. Here's why: Virtually everyone in Vermont should get rain today, but most of us won't see much of it. But a few places could have some heavy downpours.
There's also mixed signals on whether any thunderstorms this afternoon and evening might get strong or not.
As forecast, a storm is going by to our west, taking most of its heavy rain with it. But that storm is swinging a weather front our way. It'll come at us from the west.
The timing is such that the best chance of showers and storms would be in the afternoon and early evening. That's the time of day with peak heating, which is great if you want strong storms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in amarginal risk - level 1 of 5 alert level - for severe storms. That would mean there would be a couple isolated incidents of severe weather in Vermont, but most of us will be fine.
If any severe weather does get going in Vermont today, it would take the form of very local areas of damaging winds or hail.
Complicating the forecast is some showers this morning. Those showers were working their way northward through Vermont this morning. The patchy morning rain and overcast might be enough to squelch instability in the atmosphere. That, it turn would prevent most thunderstorms from forming.
We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out, I guess. It won't rain all day, so you can get outside. If you are outdoors, especially on the lakes, head inside if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, or if you get a weather warning or special weather statement.
Highs today will once again be in the 70s to near 80, and it will feel a bit more humid than it's been
MONDAY/TUESDAY
Weak low pressure spinning in Quebec should keep clouds and the risk of mostly light showers going both days. In a flip flop from Saturday, southern Vermont valleys should see the best weather with more sunshine and a much lower chance of showers.
Northern Vermont, especially in the Green Mountains, will see more clouds and a better chance of showers. Those areas could pick up another quarter to a third of an inch of rain. Not all that much, but anything is helpful while we await a soaking rain that's still not in the forecast.
Highs both days should be in the 70s with lows in the 50s.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
At the point, it's looking like a return to nice weather. Warm, too with highs in many places getting to 80 degrees. Thursday's forecast high in Burlington is 84, which isn't that wild for this time of year, but it would still be the hottest day since August 9.
The warmth on Thursday might be tempered by clouds arriving from the next weather system, so we'll see.
LATE WEEK/WEEKEND
Another batch of showers looks to come through Friday. Those could linger into Saturday. So far, this systems does not look impressive
