After Our Vermont Morning Frosts, It's Back To Late Spring Warmth. Except A Nippy Sunday?

It's lilac season, as they blooms cascade over my deck
railing. Cool temperatures this Memorial Day weekend
will preserve the lilacs for awhile, but it won't exactly
feel like an introduction to summer. 

 The cold temperatures last night worked out about as forecast. We had widespread frost, with a large minority of places in northern Vermont going below freezing. 

Montpelier got down to 31 degrees and Morrisville was 29 degrees. St. Johnsbury was barely above freezing at 33 degrees. 

It looks like the Champlain Valley escape the frost for the most part, as temperatures there reached the upper 30s. Burlington had an overnight low of 38 degrees.

There was likely seen light frost across southern Vermont, too. Rutland, Springfield and Bennington all reported morning low temperatures of 35 degrees 

We have nice day on the way, with highs popping back up well into the 60s.  Some high clouds should return this afternoon, but those won't entirely hide the sun. 

Then we get into a Memorial Day weekend that looks, not great in the weather department. But we still have some questions about how much rain we might get and when it might fall. We do know it will be dry much of the time, at least on Saturday and Monday. Let's take a shot at the forecast here: 

SATURDAY

Not too bad, actually, especially north. If the clouds stay thin enough north, the day might begin with patchy frost in the normally colder spots, but the vast majority of us will be fine. It'll be a cloudy day, with the thickest clouds south.

That'll affect temperatures. Highs under the thicker clouds south will probably hold temperatures down into the upper 50s. Where the clouds are thinner north, weak sun getting through will hopefully push temperatures up to near 70.

SUNDAY

Unfortunately, if current forecasts hold, Sunday's weather will be almost as bad as it can get for this time of year. Almost, because there will be no disasters, no snow, or anything like that. 

But it won't feel like the introduction to summer it's supposed to be, either. Light rain should move in later Saturday night and continue much of Sunday. Worse, this is a cold system, so the lack of sunshine and the rain could well hold high temperatures to within a few degrees either side of 50. 

Some places, especially in wetter southern Vermont, could have a high temperature in the mid and upper 40s. You know, like late March,  not late April. 

The one ray of hope is there is some questions as to whether the high pressure system that gave us this morning's frost will at least partially block this system. If it does, there would be some breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures, especially north. But that looks sort of unlikely at this point. 

The rain should be quite light, ranging from a tenth of an inch north to up to a half inch far south. 

MONDAY

OK, this won't be perfect, but it will be better. Winds from the west will import somewhat warmer air into Vermont. We'll still have a risk of showers, but temperatures should pop back up to near 70, which isn't far from normal for this time of year. 

Thursday Evening Vermont Frost Update: Protect Your Plants Almost Everywhere In Vermont

Visible satellite photo has clear skies in northern and
central Vermont and high clouds south late this
afternoon. Many of those high clouds are expected 
to clear, so frost and freezes are likely in most\
of Vermont tonight and early Friday.

It's a gorgeous late afternoon, especially north, where the landscape features clear blue skies and the greening hills and mountains around us. 

Southern Vermont has quite a few high clouds. They might save the day, or I should say night, and prevent frost down there. But chances are better than even, allowing a frost risk all the way down to the Massachusetts border.

Frost, if not a freeze, is a given tonight and early Friday in northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain .

The Northeast Kingdom is still under a freeze warning, as it was this morning. But that freeze warning has been extended to all of northern Vermont east of the Green Mountains. Temperatures are forecast to be a little colder there than forecasters thought during this morning. The forecast low in Montpelier tonight is 29 or 30 degrees.Their record low tomorrow morning, by the way, is 29 degrees. 

The rest of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley is under a frost advisory for temperatures in the low to mid 30s overnight. 

Despite a lack of any advisories or warnings in the central and northern Champlain Valley, I still wonder if there might be some patches of frost. I think that might happen in spots, especially near and east of Route 7. Just to be safe, I'd cover up or bring sensitive plants in, unless you're right near Lake Champlain.  If you don't get a frost, it'll be no big deal to remove the covers tomorrow morning. 

As of 4 p.m. the dew point was between 27 and 30 across most of Vermont. The dew point is the temperature we have to cool down to get water droplets and dew.

The dew point is a good, but imperfect predictor of frosts and freezes.  If skies remain clear and wind stays calm tonight, that dew point means it can easily get to near freezing tonight across most of Vermont. 

So yup, dig out the sheets, cover all those brand new frost-prone plants you have and hope for the best. If you have a strong back, haul those big tropical potted plants back indoors if you're in the potential freeze zone. You know the drill

Vermont Going From Summer Heat To Frost/Freeze Cold

A spectacular sunset last evening marked the transition
to much cooler weather after our heat wave. Now,
frost and freeze alerts are up tonight for most of Vermont

Well, our heat wave is certainly over in Vermont as we go back to early spring chill. From 90 degrees in parts of Vermont Tuesday to frost and even freezes in much of the state by Friday morning. The weather whiplash continues. 

More on the expected frost and freeze a little further down. 

Yesterday was a transition day. It started overcast and incredibly warm for May and sort of muggy. By midday, especially in northern Vermont, it turned into a breezy, bright and blue summer day. Burlington reached 81 degrees.

By evening, a layer of mid and high level clouds arrived, with clear skies far to the northwest. This set up one of the best, brightest and most beautiful sunsets we've had in ages. Even outdoing the awesome sunset this past Saturday. 

TODAY

Later, skies cleared, and we start today chilly in the 40s. Those high clouds were still around, so I imagine early risers (VERY early, sunrise was at 5:198 a.m) saw a fantastic sunrise.

If it isn't sunny where you are, it should gradually become so this morning, at least if you're in northern and central Vermont.. The south will tend to stay rather cloudy much of the day, but these will mostly be those high and middle level clouds so some sun should get through. 

Highs should only get within a few degrees of 60 for highs today. It'll be cooler than that north and mountains. That'll set us up for night that will make your plants shiver. Or worse. 

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY

You'd think with a high today in the 55 to 62 degree range, frost would be pretty scattered and light. But the air mass coning in is exceptionally dry. The drier the air, the more it can cool off on clear, calm nights. 

It's why deserts can be 100 degrees or more during the day and near freezing at night.

As such, the National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for all of Vermont and northern New York except the Champlain Valley. A freeze warning is up for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York for expected temperatures below 32 degrees.

For now, the Champlain Valley, west of Route 7 looks safe. Maybe. Look for updates this afternoon because updated forecasts might well be colder than I'm depicting here. 

The National Weather Service is considering an upgrade to a freeze warning in north central Vermont, and maybe issuing a frost advisory for the Champlain Valley. Those meteorologists are waiting on updated guidance this afternoon before they decide what to do. 

Despite the warm climate changed springs we've had in recent years, I guess that old adage is still true. Don't put out sensitive plants like tomatoes until after Memorial Day.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

After the morning frost, Friday itself should be gorgeous with sunshine and highs well into the 60s to around 70.

The rest of the weekend is still a pretty big question mark. Saturday looks dry, according to most computer models. But they are disagreeing on whether rain comes in Sunday, and if so how much. Monday has a better shot at getting wet, but again, the timing and amount of rain are still very, very open to debate.

Crazy Vermont/Northeast Heat About To End; Records Set, MUCH Cooler Air On Our Doorsteps

A sea of lilacs as viewed from my back deck in St. 
Albans, Vermont. The hot temperatures of the past
few days made them rapidly bloom. Hopefully
the upcoming cooler weather will preserve the
blooms and the fragrance for awhile. 

 We just managed to do it yesterday in Burlington. 

After clouds held temperatures in the 86 or 87 degree range much of the afternoon, skies cleared and helped boost temperatures to 90 degrees again. Second day in a row that happened. Tuesday's high fell just one degree short of the record high set in 1989.

Other cities in the Northeast set record highs in a big way.

In Philadelphia, it was 98 degrees, setting a new record for the hottest temperature in the entire month of May. Newark, New Jersey at 99 degrees and Manchester, New Hampshire at 97 degrees tied the record high for the month of May. 

Manchester shattered the record for the date by eight degrees, which is quite an accomplishment. 

Other record highs include 96 in Boston, 93 in Providence and 92 in Portland, Maine. 

All these are extraordinary hot temperatures for so early in the season.  

Back here in Vermont, unlike the day before, the morning didn't start cool. The low temperature in Burlington yesterday was  was 71 degrees, breaking a 123-year old record.

This May heat might portend a hot summer. The number crunching meteorologists at WCAX discovered that if the first 90 degree day of the year hits in June, which is what usually happens, on average the enter year will have eight days of 90 degree heat.

If the first 90 hits in May, then on average 11 days during the year will touch at least 90 

Also yesterday, those thunderstorms failed to materialize in Vermont. As we mentioned yesterday, it could have gone either way.  A weather disturbance that could have touched off some storms passed through the Green Mountain State in the late morning. That was too early to touch off anything more than light showers.

The disturbance did generate some thunderstorms in far southern Vermont and in southern New England. The storms in Connecticut were strong enough to knock down a few trees. 

TODAY

Big changes are afoot, but it will take a little while to get here. 

Early morning temperatures across Vermont were extraordinarily warm.  At 7 a.m, Burlington hit their low temperature for the day so far at 76 degrees. Not long after dawn at 6 a.m., it was 74 in Montpelier and Rutland and 72 degrees in Newport. These would easily be candidates for the hottest, stuffiest nights of the month in July. 

We won't set any records for highest low temperature today because by midnight tonight, it will much cooler than what we saw early today. 

Our cold front looked like it was in eastern New York as of 8 a.m. today and will come through Vermont thorough the rest of this morning.  Forecasts call for highs to get cut off in the upper 70s to near 80 north and in the low to perhaps mid 80s far south. 

Meanwhile, our friends in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States will endure one more torrid May day. 

Here in lilac-scented Vermont, though, you'll notice the change in the air today by mid afternoon north and late afternoon south. Even thought the sun should come out, temperatures will be slowly falling amid northwest breezes, humidity levels will fall. Summer will temporally end in favor of spring. 

THURSDAY

You'll need to dig out your fleece and long pants if you're taking your dog for a walk early tomorrow. We'll wake up to early morning temperatures in the low 40s. That's not ridiculous for May, but it is another shocking weather whiplash moment. 

Highs will only get into the 50s to near 60 north and low to mid 60s south, which is actually about 10 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Skies should be at least partly sunny, but there might be some more clouds north and mountains away from the Champlain Valley. 

Away from the Champlain Valley, we're actually back to a risk of some frost in some spots Thursday night and early Friday morning. We'll have more details on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 

This will feature a standoff between strong, cool high pressure in far eastern Quebec and coastal southeast Canada and storminess to our south and west. 

Depending on how this sets up, it could either be cloudy and cool or partly sunny and seasonable. I'm not yet sure where we're going to go with this. Friday has the best chance of being sunny and nice. Saturday will probably be rain-free, especially north. Showers might or might not come in Sunday, and those showers are somewhat more likely Monday. 

Whatever happens, it looks like whatever rain we get will end up being quite light.

Places further south will have an even bigger change in the weather. Cities like Newark and Philadelphia that were in the upper 90s Tuesday will probably have highs barely making it into the low 50s Saturday under rainy skies. 

Back here in Vermont, we'll probably warm up nicely next week. There's mixed signals as to whether it will be just seasonably warm in the 70s or quite warm in the 80s. But we have time to figure that out.  

Flash Heat Wave Monday, Questions About Heat And Storms Today, Then Sharply Cooler Late Week

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still extends their
slight risk of severe thunderstorms into Vermont.
(Everything in yellow is a slight risk).

That was a wild weather ride on Monday! 

Northern Vermont in particular endured the day's weather whiplash. As I noted in yesterday morning's post, the day began stormy and cold with fitful downpours, local gusty winds and even a rumble or two of thunder. 

Burlington reached 90 degrees by late afternoon, after a rainy early morning low of 51 degrees. By afternoon, we were sweating in a brief May heat wave that is already over-performing. 

I saw somewhere on social media where somebody in Vermont said they ran their furnace in the morning and air conditioner in the afternoon.

I'd call it a flash heat wave. Like a sudden flash flood, only hot air, not water. 

The day featured a rare temperature stat: Burlington had its first 80 degree temperature of the season Sunday. And only a day later, the first 90 of the season hit.  The same thing happened in April, 2002, but I wonder if this week and 2002 were the only times something like that happened. 

There has always been the occasional May in Burlington in which the temperature hit 90. But probably at least in part due to climate change, 90 degree May days are getting more common. In the 109 years in Burlington ending in 2009, we had 14 Mays that reached at least 90 degrees.

But in the 16 years since 2010, there have already been eight such days in May.  

Elsewhere in Vermont, the high in Bennington Monday was 89 degrees. Montpelier reached 86 degrees after a morning low of 46.  A temperature change of 40 degrees in just one day is pretty wild. 

The heat isn't only a Vermont thing, of course. Philadelphia reached 96 degrees Monday, a record for the date. It was also the second hottest May temperature on record.  In New York City, a high of 95 is expected today, followed by an incredibly stuffy overnight low tonight of 77. It should hit 90 degrees in the Big Apple again tomorrow. 

Heat advisories are in effect for much of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Hartford, Connecticut had its second day in a row of 90 degree temperatures Monday. Today's forecast high there is a whopping 96 degrees. The forecast high in Springfield today is 97.

VERMONT FORECAST

Back here in Vermont, the degree of heat today will depend on the level of cloud cover.  Severe thunderstorms are also possible, but there might be factors that allow us to luck out and avoid the worst of the storms. Maybe. 

We're certainly off to a very warm, muggy start. It looks like the low temperature this morning in Burlington was 71 degrees, so if you didn't sleep well in the Champlain Valley, that's why. If that low temperature holds through midnight, it'll break the record for warmest low temperature for the date. (The current record holder is 67 degrees way back in 1903.  

As the day goes on the valleys of southern Vermont have the best chance of reaching 90 degrees today, as they'll have the most sun.  The National Weather Service forecast for Springfield, for instance is 92 degrees.

I think clouds might prevent another 90 degree day in Burlington today, we'll see about that. There was already a batch of clouds and light showers in central and western New York early this morning. Those clouds might not clear out fast enough to allow another 90 degree day. Though we're starting out pretty warm, so it's still possible. 

The next question is severe thunderstorms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 alert on a scale of 5 - for the northwest half of Vermont and a level one marginal risk for the southeast. 

The amount of instability in the atmosphere over us isn't huge over us today, which is a limiting factor for storms. But there is a subtle disturbance in the atmosphere due by early afternoon. That, combined with rising air near mountains could trigger some storms.

Also, cool air coming off of Lake Champlain sometimes creates these teeny tiny miniature cold fronts which are boundaries between the cool lake air and the warmer inland air. Those could be triggering spots for storms. After that, cool winds blasting out of thunderstorms could set up additionally teeny tiny little cold fronts elsewhere, which would trigger more storms. 

Bottom line: Some of us will see showers or storms, some of us will stay dry.  A small number of us could experience strong, even damaging winds from storms. This won't be a widespread severe storm event. 

We don't know who, if anybody will get those rambunctious storms. Pay attention to the skies if you're outdoors, and have a way to receive severe storm warnings, just in case. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

After another stuffy night coming up, Wednesday will bring another big change. A cold front will stumble through, in the morning north, afternoon south and east. The timing of it means the north will probably just see some scattered showers in the morning, with clearing skies and highs in the 70s during the afternoon. 

Southeast Vermont could see some thunderstorms but severe ones seem unlikely, at least for now. Highs in the south look like they want to get up into the 80s

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More big changes in a roller coaster of a weather week. We'll wake up to sharply colder temperatures Thursday morning with lows in the 38 to 45 degrees. Under at least partly sunny if not clear skies, temperatures should only get into the mid and upper 50s north,  and some 60s south. 

Since it will be so cool, there might be some frost Thursday night and early Friday in areas of Vermont away from the Champlain Valley.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

A toss up on how the holiday weekend will turn out. The American weather model keeps showers at bay Saturday and Sunday, leaving us with partly sunny skies and cool highs in the 60s.  The European model brings showers into our area Saturday and Sunday. Both models give us some showers on Monday, Memorial Day. 

Morning Vermont Rain Turns To Brief Hot Spell. Strong Storms Tomorrow?

National Weather Service weather radar this morning
was much busier than many forecasters expected.
The rain was quickly moving out and we'll have
 a sunny, summery afternoon. 

 I called it. 

Up until yesterdays afternoon, many forecasters were pretty unconcerned about any showers coming through Vermont this morning with a warm front. 

I was suspicious, and noted in previous posts that some of us would wake up to showers this morning. Turns out the rain is even more widespread that I originally thought. 

As of 8:30 a.m today, rain was falling across most of northern Vermont, and there were embedded patches of fairly heavy rain. There has even been a few rumbles of thunder in northern New York and north central Vermont. 

Oh well, we had a gorgeous weekend, with Burlington have its first 80 degree day of the season on Sunday. The weather is also still expected to vastly improve this afternoon. 

We're still looking at some summertime highs in the 80s, and there's a few more storm threats after this morning.  Here are the picky details:

TODAY

It was a rather stormy, rainy, sort of raw early morning today in northern Vermont. It was raining steadily outside my St. Albans, Vermont house and gusty winds were tossing the new lilac blooms around. 

I wish the rain hit southern Vermont instead, because it's more needed down there, but you take what you can get. 

Skies should rapidly clear late this morning  into a balmy, summery afternoon after this warm front races on northward into Quebec. 

Hard to believe when you start the day rainy and in the low 50s. But trust me, the warmth is on its way. The warm front had already passed through southern Vermont by 8 a.m. and temperatures down there at dawn had already risen into the 60s.

Most places should hit the low to mid 80s for highs this afternoon.  Tonight will be pretty warm, too, with lows in the 50s away from Lake Champlain and low 60s in the Champlain Valley

TUESDAY

We know it's going to be very warm and increasingly humid, but thunderstorms are kind of a crapshoot. 

There's a level two out of five risk of severe storms tomorrow
in the areas in yellow on this map. Notice a good chunk
of Vermont is in that risk area. 

Temperatures should get into the 80s statewide. A spot 90 degrees isn't out of the question if clouds and showers and storms hold off.  There's some conflicting information on whether we'll have some big time storms tomorrow, or whether any attempt at storms go pfft.   

A big severe weather and tornado outbreak got underway in the Plains and Midwest yesterday, and it is expected to worsen today. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center indicates we in Vermont might get a taste of that. No, we're not going to endure tornadoes that wipe out whole communities or hail the size of canned hams, as David Letterman once forecasted for Indiana in his early days as a TV weatherman back in the day. 

Still, the SPC has a slight risk - alert level 2 for severe storms in the northwestern half of Vermont and a marginal risk, alert level 1, in southeastern Vermont. 

According to NOAA, some storms that develop in the hot, increasingly humid air over Vermont Tuesday afternoon could unleash strong, gusty winds in a few spots. Once again, the Storm Prediction Center says we also have a really, really low, but not zero chance of a spin up tornado, too. 

On the other hand, precipitation forecast call for hardly any rain tomorrow, which doesn't exactly scream severe thunderstorms. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says we'll have plenty of atmospheric instability over Vermont tomorrow. Instability is what can fire thunderstorms, but you need a spark that would get them going. 

That spark tomorrow would be a weak disturbance in the atmosphere teaming up with air current rising near mountain slopes. Will that be enough to trigger severe storms? Stay tuned for updates tomorrow morning. 

WEDNESDAY

We're still working out the timing of a cold front due to come through. The consensus is it might come through midday, which could leave us with a wide range of high temperatures. Don't hold me to this, but we could have a situation in which highs are only in the upper 60s far northwest to upper 80s far southeast. 

Depending on the timing of the front, we could have more strong thunderstorms. If it waits until the mid afternoon to evening to come through, maybe we'll see a few more strong storms. 

THURSDAY

We're back to cool weather, temporarily. The sun should come back out. But some places north might not even get out of the 50s for highs. Areas away from the Champlain Valley could see a few areas of frost. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

I might as well say it: I have no idea. The weather looks like it might turn unsettled. The computer models disagree on when some rain might return.  Friday looks safe at this point. Some of the models postpone rain until Sunday. We'll figure this out eventually. 

It'll stay relatively cool into the weekend, with highs in the 60s. This is temporary. The overall weather pattern favors warm weather, so I suspect a nice return to almost balmy weather to conclude the month. 

The Good Old Summertime Visits Vermont For A Few Days

An otherworldly view of Lake Champlain near 
Colchester Point, Vermont during sunset 
Saturday evening. 

Saturday was a winner, wasn't it? For a good part of the day we had bright sun, warm breezes, and the leaves on the trees were that perfect peak of new spring foliage in a million different, gleaming shades of green. 

Even when it clouded it up late in the day, it was still spectacular, at least where I was near Lake Champlain. 

The setting sun bouncing off clouds and scattered showers created weird but beautiful hues of deep, otherworldly blue, bright orange and a multitude of other bright and dark shades. 

TODAY

Now it's Sunday morning, and we're starting Part 2 of a beautiful weekend. A bit of haze early this morning gave the sky a baby blue hue, matching nicely with the fresh green of spring. 

We might have a few clouds here and there today but it's going to be gorgeous!

High temperatures will have quite a range across Vermont. Up in the Northeast Kingdom it'll probably hold in the 60s.  A few low 80s might well pop up in the warmer valleys south. 

Most of the rest of  Vermont should hold in the low to mid 70s, but cooler right near Lake Champlain. because of the chilly lake water. Which is where we get into the caution part of the forecast for the next few days. 

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement warning of the dangers of cold water. A lot of you will be tempted to jump into the water, kayak, paddle board, or get the sailboats out. 

But if you fall into the water, you're screwed. Lakes and rivers and ponds are still mighty cold. If you fall in, hypothermia sets in damn quickly.  As you quickly get cold, your arms and legs stop working right and you might not be able to swim your way out of trouble. 

Out on the broad areas of Lake Champlain, there should be some gusty northwest winds. Stronger south winds are due tomorrow and Tuesday.  The winds and waves could be enough to tip over kayaks and cause real trouble with other small boats. So you might want to hold off on those lake adventures for awhile. 

MONDAY

Another view of the sunset over Lake Champlain 
Saturday evening in the midst of a beautiful weekend. 

A warm front should blow through in the morning with clouds. There might even be a spot shower here and there, but it won't amount to much. 

The warm front will be up in Canada by afternoon, so we should clear up and turn warm.  Valleys across most of the state will reach the low 80s.  Many of those places, including in the Burlington area, will have their first 80 degree temperatures of the season. 

While all this niceness is going on in New England, the Plains and Midwest will endure a big outbreak of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, gorilla hail, along with dust and wildfires in some areas. We often complain, with justification, of annoying weather here in Vermont, but at least it's not scary. So count your lucky stars. 

TUESDAY

This will easily be the warmest day of the week. We'll get off to a warm start, as temperatures at the break of dawn will be in the 50s in much of Vermont, and the low 60s in the Champlain Valley. That's a pretty typical start to the day in July. 

The July theme will keep going as highs for most of us should reach the 80s. Also just like July, there's a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Forecasters are still struggling with how many clouds those storms will bring, how early in the afternoon the showers and storms will start, and how widespread they'll become. 

Those factors will determine how warm it gets. If there's lots of clouds and rain and showers, temperatures will hold near 80. If the sun lasts most of the day, some spots could flirt with 90.  Cloud and showers appear less likely in the southeast than in the northwest. 

With that in mind, for now at least,  the National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a highs of 81 degrees in St. Albans, 85 in Burlington, 86 in Montpelier, 87 in Rutland and 90 in Springfield. 

Those wouldn't be record highs, as all time highs for Tuesday's date around Vermont are in the 90 to 92 degree range. 

But Tuesday will be hotter than we're accustomed to, and it will be turning more humid. You'll want to take it easy with the outdoor work and/or recreation. 

WEDNESDAY

We're still waiting on clarity as to when during Wednesday a cold front comes through. If it blows through in the morning, we just get a few showers followed by drier and eventually cooler air. If it's late in the day, we could see a couple strong thunderstorms in a few places. Stay tuned on that one. 

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

Long range forecasts get dicey and are prone to change. But Thursday and Friday look relatively cool, but not weird or annoying for this time of year. Early guesses call for highs in the 60s.  Signs point toward maybe some rain later Friday or Saturday, but that's not a promise. The forecast will probably change quite a bit between now and then.  

After The Nice Rains, Parts Of Vermont Still Need More. Instead, Get Ready For A Quick Heat Flash

NOAA's "water year" map. A water year goes from
October 1 to September 30. In the water year so
far, almost all of New England is behind
schedule with rainfall. Some places are eight
inches or more shy on rainfall. The only place
in New England that's near normal is northwest
Vermont. Click on the map to make it bigger
and easier to see. 

We have a much more complete accounting of that nice rain we received this week in the increasingly Green Mountain State. We have a lot to be thankful for. 

The only disappointment was the heaviest rain avoided southern Vermont where it was more needed, but at least they got a decent wetting to get them through a few more days. 

The big winner in the Vermont rainfall sweepstakes seems to be Orange County. Good, because much of that county was regarded as dry in the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor and the southern tip of the south was in drought. 

In Orange County and southern Caledonia counties, rainfall exceeded two inches, including 2.63 inches in Corinth, 2.43 inches in Stratford and 2.34 inches in Groton. 

Virtually all of central and northern Vermont received one to two inches of rain. 

Windham County in southeastern Vermont is the most droughty area of Vermont. They got anywhere between 0.75 and 1.25 inches, so, not bad.

Bennington County was regarded as abnormally dry, too, especially near the Massachusetts border. Unfortunately, the rainfall distribution there was wrong. They got anywhere from a quarter inch near the Mass border to an inch as you get closer to Rutland County to the  north. 

NEED STILL MORE RAIN

It might seem like the streams are running strong and the soil is mushy underfoot. Yet there's still a water deficit left over from last year, sort of our drought hangover.

NOAA watches something called the water year. It's the accumulation of precipitation - rain, melted snow and ice - from October 1 through September 30. 

Here in the Northeast, as of mid-May, most places are having a below normal water year, and some places are ridiculously below normal.  Parts of southern and eastern New England are more than eight inches behind normal as of now 

Here in Vermont, Bennington County is one of those places that is at least eight inches short on rainfall since the beginning of last October. Most of the remainder of Vermont is lacking in rainfall.  The rest of southern Vermont outside of Bennington County is   between four and eight inches shy on precipitation. North central and Northeast Vermont is one to four inches behind schedule.

The only lucky place in all of New England is northwest Vermont. Precipitation there since October 1, 2025 is pretty close to normal.

Next up, not much rain is in the forecast, but it's going to turn much warmer. And overall, warm air creates more evaporation than cooler air, so it'll dry us out faster. Some details: 

TODAY

We started the day mild and sunny, which is a fantastic way to start a Saturday. It'll get breezy, and you'll see more and more clouds mixing this afternoon. There's even a chance of a light spot shower late in the day, but most of us will say dry. Highs get well into the 70s, so that'll be a nice switch from what we endured all week. 

By the way, today, and over the next few days,  it will be quite a bit cooler near Lake Champlain. The water is still cold, and winds blowing off the lake will dramatically cool the air in places next to the lake. 

SUNDAY

The disturbance that would bring the widely scattered showers later today includes the lamest of cold fronts. So northern areas will probably "only" make it into the low 70s under sunny skies. Somehow, I think we'll endure those "chillier" conditions. Southern Vermont stays warm with highs in the 70s to around 80

MONDAY

Summer preview is on!  There still might be a spot shower early in the day north with a warm front passing through, but overall, sunny and breezy with highs in the low 80s in most valleys is on tap. In the grand scheme of things, low 80s isn't exactly hot, but we're not used to such temperatures, so take it easy with the heavy outdoor work

TUESDAY

It looks like it's going to be hotter and more humid. For now, forecasters are expecting highs right up there in the 80s. How hot it gets depends on afternoon clouds and the timing of scattered showers and thunderstorms  If it stays clear until later in the day, some areas could flirt with 90 degrees. If there were more showers and storms than expected, readings would hold near 80 degrees. 

Either way, it'll get kind of humid, so take it easy out there

WEDNESDAY

A wild card. It all depends when an expected cold front comes through. If it's late in the day, it'll be in the 80s again, and humid. A late day cold front also increases the chances of scattered strong thunderstorms. 

If the front comes through earlier in the day, the chances of big storms goes very much downhill. And you'll notice refreshingly drier air late in the day. Stay tuned on that one.

LATE WEEK

Definitely cooler, but not nearly as chilly as this week has been. Highs then should be in the 60s.

Severe Weather, Tornadoes, Ramping Up In The Middle U.S. Again

A dust storm in rural North Dakota caused vehicle 
crashes. The dust storms spread across wide
areas of the northern Plains and southern Canada.
Photo from North Dakota Highway Patrol

The same weather pattern that kept us in Vermont pretty cool and showery for the first half of May also suppressed severe weather in Tornado Alley. 

Sure, there were some severe storms, high winds, hail and a few tornadoes over the past couple weeks. 

But not the frightening, powerhouse tornado outbreaks that often terrorize the Plains, Midwest and South this time of year.

That's about to change. That shouldn't be surprising, as this is the peak of severe storm season. 

ALREADY STARTED

We had the first hint of that on Wednesday and Thursday. A strong storm system in southwestern Canada swept high winds through the northern Rockies, northern Plains and into Manitoba, Canada.  

The dust storms with this weather system actually started on Wednesday in Utah and Idaho. The dust storm there caused an eight-car pileup in Utah.  The storm created a blast furnace in Montana, where record highs were set  in Havre, Great Falls, Bozeman and Billings, where it was 95 degrees. 

The heat was accompanied by intense winds. Big Sandy and Livingston, Montana gusted to 85 mph, Toston, Montana reached 78 mph and Havre reached 74 mph. A line of severe thunderstorms amid this chaos created a rare for Montana haboob.

The blowing dust continued in Montana Thursday, and spread into the Dakotas and Manitoba Thursday.  In some parts of Manitoba, rain showers collided with dust clouds, making it basically rain mud in a few places. 

IT WILL GET WORSE

Weather patterns are setting up in such a way to encourage more severe weather and tornadoes. Today, people from Texas to Wisconsin are under the gun, but Iowa seems like the main target. Although tornadoes are a possibility, the real threat late this afternoon and tonight is giant hail and winds to 75 mph. 

It's been a tough year for huge hailstones, and this could add to the destructive drama. 

Saturday

The "fun" is forecast to keep going in Iowa tomorrow, and spread into Nebraska and northern Kansas, where the best chance of bad storms arises. 

The risks look similar to today's. A couple tornadoes could spin up, but the biggest threat is huge hailstones and strong straight line winds. Remember, hail storms can easily be more damaging than tornadoes. Hail usually covers a much wider area in a storm than a tornado path would. 

Sunday

This looks like it might be the more dangerous day of the string of severe weather days. The early thinking is some supercells will develop in Nebraska and southern South Dakota and move east. That raises the risk for a tornado outbreak. 

The supercells will then congeal into a line of powerful storms moving into Iowa. Those wild storms could well include embedded tornadoes, and some of them could be strong, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

Monday

Monday will probably be the most dangerous day
out of the next several for severe storms in tornadoes
The darker orange area has the highest risk. 

This is the day to really watch the weather closely. Especially if you're anywhere between Texas and Michigan. The highest risk looks to be in some of the places that are likely to get hammered this weekend. Plus some new areas. 

That means Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, much of Missouri, Oklahoma and eastern South Dakota need to be on their toes. 

The Storm Prediction Center says that some of the tornadoes expected to touch down might be strong to intense, which is never a happy prediction. 

Most tornadoes are relatively week EF-0s and EF-1s.  

Stronger tornadoes, EF-2s and EF-3s, with winds of between 111 and 165 mph, represent about 15 percent of all U.S. tornadoes and account for about 25 percent of U.S. tornado deaths, give or tak

Less than one percent of all U.S. tornadoes are EF-4s or EF-5s, with winds of 166 mph and up. But those powerful twisters cause roughly 70 percent of all U.S. tornado deaths.  

The bottom line: Pray for weak tornadoes because the strong ones create the worst tragedies. 

Tuesday and Beyond

Severe storms are expected to continue in the Midwest Tuesday, then move more toward the south and southeast Wednesday and beyond. Exactly where the worst storms might fire up later in the week is till TBA

 

Impressive Rain Ending This Morning, Sharp Vermont Warmup Due, With Picky Details

National Service Weather radar shows moderate to 
heavy coming from New Hampshire and through all but far
southern Vermont around 9 p.m. last night. 

That rainfall yesterday and last night turned out to be impressive, and just the ticket for soaking gardens, crops and forests on the cusp of summer's heat. 

Complete rainfall totals weren't quite available yet as of 8 a.m. Montpelier and St. Johnsbury look like they have a storm total from yesterday morning to this morning of about 1.8 inches. 

Montpelier set a record for the wettest May 14 on record with 1.62 inches. We have a report from Woodbury of 2.19 inches. 

The moisture feed and the rain moved northwestward off the Atlantic through southern and central New Hampshire and across most of Vermont. 

In this type of setup, the Champlain Valley usually doesn't get as much rain because the Green Mountains block the moisture. But it looks like Burlington got a respectable 1.4 inches or so. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.62 inches. 

Instead falling in short, sharp bursts, the bulk of the rain fell over an 18 hour period, ensuring a lot of it soaked in rather than running off. 

Far southern Vermont - roughly south of Route 30 largely missed out on this moisture bonanza. Bennington only had 0.11 inches of rain yesterday and last night The lower Connecticut Valley was in the moisture feed early in the day, but the rain moved north of them .

It'll be interesting to see who got what amount of rain once the National Weather Service compiled the totals, probably later this morning or this afternoon. 

TODAY

Fuscia later season magnolia buds get set to bloom after
the soaking rains we just received in St. Albans, VT

That moisture feed this morning was now across far northern Vermont and southern  Quebec and much weaker as its source from the Atlantic Ocean is getting cut off. Another batch of light rain was moving westward across the northern half of New Hampshire. 

That means this morning will probably stay damp and drizzly and showery across most of Vermont.

 But the air mass is drying out, so the showers will, too. The forecast still calls for some sun this afternoon. Even so, some widely scattered showers might lurk around until sunset, as some instability will linger behind our storm. 

The partial sun should bring highs this afternoon into the 60s, which would make today our hottest day since Sunday. Yay! Even though mid-60s is still a touch cooler than normal for this time of year. But much warmer times are at our doorstep. Promise!

SATURDAY

Here comes the warmth. Strong May sun and southwest breezes will pump those temperatures up into the 70s. It'll be the balmiest day in nearly two weeks. But this is Vermont, so nice weather almost always includes an asterisk. 

That asterisk comes in the form of a weak disturbance sweeping in late in the day.  The air will be dry, so it will be hard to generate many showers. I'm guessing shower clouds might form late in the afternoon in some areas. 

Most of the rain from those showers will probably dry up on the way down. For those caught under these "showers" that means sprinkles, suddenly gusty winds and a brief, sharp drop in temperatures. 

The scattered showers could last into Saturday night. Many places won't see a drop of rain. Those who do get hit will see a trace to maybe few hundredths of an inch

SUNDAY

Mostly sunny skies again! And warm!  That disturbance from Saturday will include a very poor excuse for a cold front. Meaning highs Sunday should "only" be near 70 on Saturday in the north. It won't get any colder south, as highs could touch 80 in places like Bennington and Brattleboro.

MONDAY

A major warm front should pass through in the morning. Most forecasts call for no rain with the passage of this front. But I'm suspicious. Warm fronts that pass through in the morning ahead of a warm to hot spell usually kick off a few showers, mostly in northern Vermont. 

Given that history, I wouldn't be surprised if a few spots start out with showers Monday. But the afternoon should be sunny, breezy and warm. Could easily be the first 80 degree reading of the season in some parts of central and northern Vermont 

TUESDAY

This will be the first true summer day in most of Vermont. (It won't be the first in far southern Vermont, because they had a couple classic summer days in mid-April)

How hot it gets depends on whether we see showers and thunderstorms and if we do, when they'll arrive. If it manages to stay sunny all day, I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple 90 degree readings in some of the broader valleys. 

 But  I kinda doubt that. Preliminary forecasts seem to indicate a messy area of slight instability that would create clouds and possible scattered showers and storms. So it will probably "only" be in the 80s. 

If you're planning vigorous outdoor work or exercise, you're not used to that heat. Take more breaks ad drink more water than you think you'll need.

LATER WEEK

At this point, Wednesday looks fairly warm, too. We have a decent shot of making it to 80 degrees. But a cold front will be approaching with a risk of showers and thunderstorms. Later in the week, we'll cool down again, but not downright chilly like we've seen this week. 

Instead, Thursday might bring us a brief moment of cool weather, as temperatures might not get out of the low 60. But then somewhat warmer air will quickly return. Not necessarily in the 80s, but seasonably warm, which means close to 70. 

The weather pattern that kept sending nippy air to us from Canada is kaput 

Chilly And Rainy In Vermont Again Today, But Big Changes Are On Their Way

My "pink tree" as a call it, bloomed out this week despite
relatively cool weather. This tree was just about dead
when I bought the property nearly 20 years ago, 
but I managed to save it and I've gotten it to thrive. 

We endured another nippy May day on Wednesday, with the afternoon arguably being the coldest of the month. 

Light rainfall held temperatures in the 40s until evening, when the rain temporarily ended and parts of Vermont made it into the low 50s. 

That's still ten to 15 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Even the fleece I was wearing yesterday didn't seem warm enough. Shiver me timbers indeed!

Not far upstream in New York yesterday, though, things were different. Watertown and Fort Drum were at 61 degrees at 3 p.m. The air was warm an humid enough to trigger a few severe thunderstorms in western New York.

There was even a tornado warning for northwestern New York. I don't have any word on whether anything touched down, but if it did, it would have been not far from Pulaski, New York. That's an area south of Watertown that is much more famous for epic lake effect blizzards than it is for tornadoes. 

Our (sort of) proximity to severe weather and warmer temperatures is a sign that our cool weather will end soon. 

On the bright side, this morning was much warmer than in recent days. As a gray, rainy dawn broke, temperatures across Vermont were within a few degrees either side of 50.  That makes it probably the warmest morning since May 

Clouds and rain,  however, will give us one more cool day. But that's OK, we need the rain. Vermont got about a tenth of an inch of rain yesterday, give or take, so we still need a good soaking. Meanwhile, the warm weather that's been knocking on our door will finally begin to make its move into Vermont tomorrow. 

Here are the details. 

TODAY

The upper level low that was in New York yesterday has settled down to our south a bit, and is trying to funnel a band of deep Atlantic moisture into New England. Vermont is sort of near the western edge of that moisture, but we should still get a good soaking. 

If you're in the western Adirondacks or St. Lawrence Valley of New York, you're out of luck for rain today. You'll only get a little. But you guys got more rain than Vermont yesterday, so let's call it even. 

For Vermont, most areas should have a storm total of at least an inch of rain. That includes rain from yesterday and last night and whatever falls today through early Friday. 

The wild card is western Vermont. One decent slug of rain went through all of the state, including the Champlain Valley early this morning. Will the rest of the rain hit that area? This morning's forecast seems to say yes. Maybe places like Burlington and St. Albans will get slightly less rain than the rest of Vermont, but still get a little under an inch total.

But, if the moisture feed shifts just a tiny bit east, far western Vermont could get cheated. As of this morning,  the forecast seems to suggest after a bit of a morning lull, western Vermont will still share in the bounty of the rain. Fingers crossed. But if the rain doesn't materialize, now you'll know why. 

The big winner for Vermont in this storm looks like it will be southeastern Vermont. The U.S. Drought Monitor still has drought conditions in the lower Connecticut Valley, and New Hampshire, and western Maine. 

In fact in Vermont, this week's U.S. Drought Monitor, hot off the presses at 8:30 this morning, shows the drought expanded across a much larger portion of southern Vermont since last week. Drought now covers all an area from the Green Mountains east below White River Junction. 

Those drought areas should get the most rain today and tonight. We're talking a good inch or inch and a half, with locally higher amounts. 

So in a sense, this is a perfect storm. Not the violent, scary, deadly Perfect Storm of 1991, obviously. But a perfect storm of drought-denting rains, which should make everyone happy. 

The only unhappy aspect of the day will be the temperatures. The rain and clouds will hold us down in the mid and upper 50s. Normal highs this year should be between 65 and 70 degrees. 

FRIDAY

This will be our transition day toward what I call "pre-summer." During pre-summer, which usually goes from late May to mid-June, most days are pretty warm, in the 70s. You still get some nasty cool days that hold in the 50s, but other days are full-on summer with temperatures getting into the 80s or even to 90.

That's what we have coming up. 

Tomorrow might still be a wee bit on the cool side for this time of year. Early showers will give way to clouds, then some afternoon clearing. Instability in the air might allow Ma Nature to sneak in a scattered afternoon shower, but those should be few and far between. And those temperatures will get into the reasonable 60s. It'll be the hottest day since this past Sunday, and that's only the beginning.

WEEKEND

Ah! Pre-summer arrives full on. Under sunny skies, temperatures should soar way up into the 70s on Saturday. A weak disturbance might bring us a few scattered hit and miss showers Sunday morning, but it won't be anything widespread. The disturbance will probably knock temperatures back down to near 70 north Sunday, but southern parts of the state should still get well into the 70s. 

EARLY WEEK

It looks like we'll get a brief burst of full summer weather. It should get into the 70s Monday under sunny skies. That will be a great opportunity to install your window air conditioner. The reason for that is Tuesday. Unless something goes completely wrong with the forecast, it looks like Tuesday's highs could soar well into the 80s. And the humidity might creep up a tad.

We're not used to 80 degree weather, says Captain Obvious. The last time it was in the 80s in Vermont was during a record-breaking heat wave on October 5-7, 2025.

A cold front should arrive later Tuesday and Wednesday, which would knock temperatures back down tot the 60s and low 70s later next week. That's a long range forecast of course, so take it with a giant hunk of rock salt. 

 

 

Heartwarming Hay Donations After Extreme Nebraska Wildfires. But It Doesn't Solve The Climate Change Problem

One of the huge Nebraska wildfires back on March.
Photo from Nebraska State Patrol 

This spring, Nebraska burned. At least a large part of it did.  

Amid a drought and record breaking high temperatures that further dried out the landscape, high winds fanned wildfires that burned through  820,000 acres of Nebraska rangeland. 

The worst of the fires burned in March. One of the fires blackened 600,000 acres. The blazes left numerous ranchers without feed for their cattle. Damage estimates are at least $10 million. 

This is all bad news, of course. And climate change is a prime suspect again. An insane March heat wave contributed to the conditions that led to the huge fires.  World Weather Attribution reported that the March heat wave would have been virtually impossible without climate change. 

The fires burned through just about all of the 11,000 acre ranch Mike and Kayla Wintz lease in the middle of nowhere - deep in the Sandhills of western Nebraska. With the grass gone, the cattle couldn't graze, as CBS's on the road reporter Steve Hartman noted. 

Suddenly, after the fires. Wintz and other ranchers started getting phone calls. The callers said hay was on the way, and where should we put it. At last report Wintz has received $80,000 worth of hay, all donated. 

Highways in central and western Nebraska became busy with convoys of trucks carrying hay to desperate ranchers. Some of the hay came from as far away as South Carolina. The convoys became almost like celebratory parades, as school kids lined streets to watch the trucks, fully loaded with enormous bales of hay pass by. 

"Empathy, charity and grace," Hartman concludes. 

All true. Hartman is always the feel good reporter we need when we need to see someone acting like good humans should. 

Unfortunately, I'm not as kind hearted as Hartman. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely support and love this Nebraska "hay lift," for lack of a better term. And of course I support helping your neighbor in any way you can. Whether that neighbor is literally next door or half a world away. 

However,  like so much havoc caused by, or more often made worse by climate change, massive hay donations like we've just seen in Nebraska aren't going to solve the problem. 

In the first few months of 2026, major wildfires scorched over a million acres in Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma, Nebraska Public Media notes.

NPM continues:

"The amount of Great Plains land burned by wildfires tripled between 1985-1994 and 2005-2014, according to a 2017 study from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The number of incidents also increased from 33 per year to 117 per year."

 Judging from news reports about Great Plains fires in the past three years at least, that trend  detected nearly a decade ago by UNL researchers has continued.

There's always talk of "adaptation" to extreme conditions wrought by climate change. And people in the Great Plains can adapt to an extent. They can make homes and outbuildings more resisted to fire. Improve warning systems. But if there's a drought, strong winds and hot temperatures, there's little you can do to stop the grass from burning. 

While people are contemplating wildfires, the Plains might be in for a temporary reprieve. Climate change makes fires more likely, but so does La Nina. That weather pattern tilts conditions toward dry in the central and southern Plains during the early spring. 

Early spring is peak fire season. A potentially strong El Nino is poised to replace the La Nina. An El Nino more often than not tends to turn the southern half of the Plains wetter. 

Still, El Nino will end at some point. And so the fires will come back, possibly even more ferocious than this year's as climate change continues to heat the planet. 

Here is the CBS report. Click on this link to view it, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Not Necessarily "Nice" Vermont Weather In The Traditional Sense, But We Need The Rain And Gloom

After a long winter of snow prediction maps, it's nice to
post rain prediction maps. If this is accurate, most of us
should see an inch of rain by the end of the day Friday.

The Vermont weather forecast for today and tomorrow is great for people who prefer to stay indoors anyway. But not so much for those who like to spend time out in their gardens. 

But those gardens need drinks of water and those should get a Big Gulp serving today and tomorrow. 

For now anyway, the predicted amount of rain is pretty generous. This morning through Friday morning, the National Weather Service is predicting an inch of rain, give or take for most of Vermont. 

The Northeast Kingdom will probably get a little less than that. Some spots in central Vermont could close in on an inch and a half.

Of course, I'm sort of counting those proverbial chickens before they hatch. The arrangement of little storms and moisture flows over the next couple of days is touch and go and a little uncertain, so a lot can go wrong to cheat us out of a soaking rain. 

But if this rainy spell turns out as expected, we'l come closer to normal rainfall for this point in the season. 

Vermont still has a bit of a hangover from last year's drought. And precipitation so far this year is just meh, coming up short in most of the state. 

Through yesterday, May 12, Burlington has had 1.13 inches less precipitation than normal. That's not a drought, but it's definitely not sopping wet, either. Montpelier was 1.62 inches behind schedule in the rain department for the year so far. 

Rutland is even worse, running 2.3 inches under what we should have gotten up to this point in the year. North Springfield, an area of the state that is still official in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, is short 4.36 inches of rain as of yesterday. 

Only the southwest and northeast corners of Vermont are closer to normal. St. Johnsbury as of yesterday was within a quarter inch or so of normal. Bennington was short by only about two thirds of an inch. 

The expected rain this week will narrow, but not erase the precipitation gap. 

Let's do the details:

TODAY: 

It dawned cloudy today, as expected. It was still a little frosty early this morning in eastern Vermont, but not anything particularly damaging to crops and gardens. 

It was in the 40s in the Champlain Valley. This might be a spoiler to the extended forecast, but - unless there's some real surprises in our future - I think the Champlain Valley's threat of frost has passed until this coming fall. The rest of Vermont, well, just hang in there. 

Rain was moving into Vermont as we approached the 9 a.m. hour. It looked like rain was coming down a pretty good clip in New York state, but I think it might lighten up a little once it embraces the Green Mountain State. 

Still, it''ll be a rainy, chilly day. Highs should only get into the 50s. We'll probably get a quarter inch of rain, maybe a little less in spots. The rain will tend to diminish this evening and early tonight. At least temporarily. 

TOMORROW

Also looking rainy. But there will be a bit of dance going on between the decaying upper level low that is now coming in from the west, a small storm we think will develop in southern New England tomorrow, and a stronger storm well offshore. 

But the thinking is that weird atmospheric dance should shove some Atlantic moisture northwestward to us here in Vermont, giving a continued soaking rain. The rain should be even heavier in eastern New England, but I don't expect anybody in the region to see any flooding. Just a good soaking. Again, fingers crossed.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Ahhh the warmth arrives. Friday should show slow improvement, as clouds and maybe morning showers should give way to some sun, especially north and west. It should get into the 60s, so not too bad!

And then, a warm weekend! Yes, that means highs right up there in the 70s. Balmy! almost summer-like, aside from the cool but not cold nights. And spoiler: Some forecasts bring us into the 80s by Tuesday. 

In other words, we get a nice reward after the chilly, rainy weather we're in for. 

 

Unexpected Clouds Rescued Most Of Vermont/North Country From A Nasty Freeze

The sky looked chilly over St. Albans yesterday, leading
to forecasts of freezes and frosts. It did get cold last
night, but it was a couple degrees warmer than 
forecasts, so no hard freezes. That was good
for vulnerable plants and crops.

For the most part, it didn't get quite as cold in most of Vermont overnight, thanks mostly to some unexpected clouds that covered the skies over northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Clouds tend to hold in heat, so it ended up a few degrees warmer than it otherwise would have been.

Under clearer skies, Bennington did manage to get to at least 31 degrees, and Rutland was at 32.  

Most of northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley were also in the low 30s, so there was at least light frost around. But we had no hard freezes except in the coldest hollows where the growing season hasn't really started anyway. 

The Champlain Valley remained mostly frost free, though Middlebury. a little south of that cloud cover, did manage to touch 32 degree.  It looks like Burlington bottomed out at a reasonable 39 degrees. which won't even be the coldest night this month. It was 37 degrees on May 8.

Until recent years, it would almost always get below freezing in Burlington during May. That has changed with climate change intensifying. Since 2011, May temperatures in Burlington have touched 32 degrees on only three occasions. 

Judging from weather forecasts, Burlington will not see any freezing temperatures this May, either. 

FORECAST

The good news is it's going to get wet. We actually need the rain. And eventually, it's going to get warmer. 

Today

The clouds in the north should at least partly clear out today.  If it all works out, we'll end up with a classic cool May afternoon. Sun will mix with clouds and highs will only reach the 50s, which is a good ten degrees cooler than average. 

With such a cool days in store, you'd think we'd be in for another frost and freeze risk tonight. There might well be areas of frost, especially in central and eastern Vermont, but overall, tonight will be a bit warmer than last night. 

That's because more clouds will be coming in. This will introduce a fairly long stretch of wet weather.

Wednesday/Thursday

There's some debate as to when the rain will start Wednesday. Could be early in the morning, could be in the late morning. But it's not going to be a nice day. Another stay indoors day for sure. It'll be rainy and cool, with chilly southeast breezes. Once again we'll  only get into the 50s. 

The storm coming in from the west will eventually transfer to a new, sluggish system on or near the New England coast. That will keep moisture coming inland across the region. That means on and off rain through Thursday. 

Early estimates say most of us would get between a half and three quarters of an inch of rain out of this, with maybe bit less right near the Canadian border.  A few spots central and south could get over an inch of rain. 

Friday/Weekend

That offshore New England storm will probably keep clouds and some showers going on Friday, but my early guess is it won't be a washout. And it'll be a little warmer, with highs in the 60s.

The weekend looks pretty good. There is a slight chance of showers, I suppose, but we'll also a fair amount of sun, fingers crossed. The bigger news is the temperature: It should get to at least near 70 degrees each day. 

The entire weather pattern is changing.  For the rest of May, chilly blasts of air will have a much more difficult time coming in from Canada than they did during the first half of the month. There might be a cool day thrown in here and there. But otherwise we'll launch into what I call pre-summer. 

The weather will be almost summery, but not quite. That means lots of 70s and for almost all of us, no chance of nighttime more frosts.

Let those gardens grow! 

Frost, Freezes In Vermont Tonight. Protect Those Gardens

Tree foliage frozen to death during a destructive 
freeze in May, 2023.  Freeze warnings and frost
advisories are in effect in and around Vermont
tonight. It won't be as bad as 2023, but 
sensitive plants and gardens will 
need protection tonight. 

After a cool, cloudy afternoon in Vermont we're in for a frosty night with freezes, so it's time to cover sensitive plants and protect crops.    

The clouds and light showers north will tend to evaporate as the sun goes down this evening. Temperatures this afternoon were only in the 50s, so readings won't have far to go to get close to the freezing mark. 

Eventually, skies will become clear, which would make it even colder.  

So: A freeze warning is up for all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom, the Champlain Valley and the lower Connecticut River Valley south of Springfield. 

In those areas covered by the freeze warning, expect temperatures to fall to between 29 and 32 degrees by dawn. The freeze could damage crops and gardens. 

We'll have to watch apple and strawberry growers and wineries. This won't be as bad a freeze as the one in May, 2023, which cost farmers and other growers roughly $10 million in crop losses.  

The freeze tonight will not feature temperatures as low as on May 18, 2023. Also, that year featured a really premature spring, much more than this year. So plants and blooms were further along than they are this year, which left them more prone to damage. The hard 2023 freeze also covered the entire state, causing damage all across Vermont. 

Still, this one could be expensive, if farmers aren't able to take measures to protect crops, or if it unexpectedly gets colder than forecast. 

The Northeast Kingdom is not under any advisories or warnings because the growing season has not really started yet in that colder corner of Vermont. 

A frost advisory is in effect for all of the rest of Vermont I haven't mentioned yet. Except Grand Isle County. The islands in Lake Champlain should stay safely above freezing due to the comparatively warm lake water that will temper the chill in the air just a little. 

There might be some frost away from Lake Champlain tomorrow night, too. But increasing cloudiness and a warming air mass means it won't be as cold tomorrow night as tonight will be. 

Spring Is The United States Storm Season: Dramatic Videos Prove It

Damage from an extreme hailstorm in Springfield, Missouri
in April. Video of the storm is in this post, Photo from 
Springfield Daily Citizen via Facebook

As we all know, spring is the tornado and storm season in the United States. That always leads to some pretty dramatic videos.   

We've got some of them here to let you gawk at Ma Nature at her angriest. Let's get right to it: 

During an outbreak of tornadoes on April 17, the town of Lena, Illinois was hit hard. The tornado was seriously wrapped in rain, so you couldn't see the actual funnel. 

And the parts of town that weren't' actually hit by the tornado were hammered by a wall of intense rain and wind that did its own damage .

The tornado itself was an EF-2 with top winds of 130 mph. 

The video is a web cam that recorded the maelstrom moving into the city. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Also, there's another Lena web cam that has a different perspective basically overlooking the entire town. Click on this link to view that one. 

In our next video, we see the benefits of obeying the safety rules when a tornado seems imminent. 

Two women were keeping track of a tornadic storm on their phones as they sat in the kitchen of a Minnesota home. 

When the wind suddenly picked up. The women quickly decided to run downstairs, with their two dogs in tow.  See in the video what happened next. Spoiler: The women made the right decision. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

On April 23, a massive tornado, an EF-4 with top winds of 170 mph, struck part of northern Oklahoma. It hit the southern edge of Vance Air Force Base before sliding along the southeast corner of Enid, Oklahoma.  It wiped out about 40 homes in a subdivision, but miraculously didn't kill anybody. There were ten relatively minor injuries.

The video below shows that as bad as this tornado was, things would have been much, much worse, had its path been the same, except displaced a little bit to the northwest. Enid is a city with a population of about 51,000. Had it gone through the middle of town, the destruction would have been extreme 

The video is a time lapse from a web cam that overlooks downtown Enid. You can see the tornado come  in from the right side of the view.  It eventually gets lost in an area of torrential rain, but it was still causing its damage even when it was invisible in the rain. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Springfield, Missouri was hammered by a huge hailstorm on April 28. Some of the stones were at least softball sized, so you can imagine the damage. Sadly, the hail killed an emu at the local zoo. An unknown number of cars were damaged or destroyed, but the number of vehicles wrecked had to be in the thousands.  

At the Springfield-Branson National Airport, hundreds of cars left in the parking lot by people who flew to wherever were trashed, with busted out windows and huge dents. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"Some passengers had to be buses around 100 miles away to the airport in Bentonville, Arkansas because rental cars were damaged. (Airport Public Information Officer Ren) Luebbering said airport staff spent three hours covering the most badly damaged vehicles with donated tarps. 'We think we put 300 or 400 tarps out there on cars," Luebbering said. The airport warned online, 'Expect damage to your vehicle."

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Here's another view of the chaotic Springfield, Missouri hail storm. Again, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 On April 28, an EF-3 tornado caused a lot of damage in Mineral Wells, Texas. The tornado was wrapped in rain and hard to see. In this video. people in a car inadvertently drive to very near the edge of the tornado. The wind is howling on this freeway and debris fills the air. Pretty scary! As always, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

During another round of severe weather in the South,  storm chaser Daniel Shaw was driving near Monterey, Louisiana. They didn't see any tornadoes, but the lightning really put on a show. The video shows plenty of lot of lightning strike and Shaw kept saying they are not getting out of the vehicle. 

The end of the video is what really shocks, literally. Shaw is parked in a Family Dollar parking lot when the building gets hit by lightning. Let's 

 As always click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Storm chaser Aaron Rigsby's videos often make an appearance in these video highlight posts I occasionally issue. This is not technically one of Rigsby's videos but he stars in it. 

That same batch of lightning barrages affected Rigsby. He was chasing severe storms in Mississippi when lightning struck the Toyota Rav 4 as he sped down a highway. The car is toast.  Rigsby said he is OK, but felt the buzz of electricity when it struck.  He got into another storm chaser's car to continue the hunt for tornadoes.

Inside Edition has the story. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on this. 

So here's something different: A time lapse of an enormous iceberg passing by the town of Ilulissat, Greenland on April 13.  Looks like a mountain kind of saying, "never mind me, just passing through, I'll be out of here in no time. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.