A Cold, Damp Vermont Sunday, And A Cool Autumnal Week

Today's rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service in South Burlington. Though it
will be a rainy day, we ultimately won't get all that
much. The driest part of the state, the Northeast
Kingdom, will unfortunately see the least

 Saturday in Vermont felt like mid-October, with crisp air and bright blue skies, at least in  northern Vermont.

 High clouds were already starting to increase in southern Vermont. Those clouds were a sign of a very chilly Sunday coming in. 

The clouds were in place over Vermont as dawn broke today and rain was spreading in. Light rain should fall all day, though eastern Vermont should see mostly dry weather until mid to late morning. 

All this should hold daytime temperatures down in the 50s. As noted yesterday, this will be the coldest September 20 high temperatures since 1990, when the high was 53. 

The coldest high temperature on this date was 50 degrees in 1962  (The year 1962 was among the coldest on record in Vermont, as measured in Burlington). 

If it's going to rain, you want it to be beneficial, a real soaker. Unfortunately that won't be the case. Instead, it will mostly be annoying light rain, drizzle and sprinkles.  The rain might pick up at times to briefly feel drenching, but it won't be really make everything sopping wet. 

Only a thin top layer of the ground will get wet. There won't be enough rain to soak deeper. The Northeast Kingdom most needs the rain the most, and they'll get the least.

Some places in the NEK will receive less than a quarter inch of rain. Most of the state will see a modest quarter to a half inch. A few places in the far south could get a little more than a half inch

We're setting ourselves up for a cool week, too. Daytime highs won't be as cold as today, but we'll have to watch the nights for the risk of frost in a few spots. .

MONDAY

It will probably take its time clearing up during the day. Overall, most of us will have a mostly cloudy day, with more sun maybe in the Connecticut River valley. With cool north breezes blowing, it'll stay cool, with highs within a few degrees either side of 60.

 Some clearing Monday night will send temperatures down into the 35 to 42 degree range for most of us. Colder valleys could have some frost. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Massive, cool high pressure will set up to our north in Quebec, while low pressure is stuck in the Mid-Atlantic states or just offshore. This should keep us dry and chilly through the week. Some models take the Mid-Atlantic storm, or at least some of its moisture our way towards the end of the week. That's tossup right now, so we'll have to see how that plays out. 

Chances are, unfortunately, that we get little rain from that storm. But, we shall see!

Autumn Cool Weather To Make a VERY Noticeable Arrival In Vermont Over The Next Several Days

Photo of Hard'ack Hill in St Albans taken yesterday, a
beautiful, cool-ish September Day. If I told you I'd taken
this photo in July, you'd believe me, as the trees are 
still entirely green. That will start to change as we
begin a spell of notable cooler than normal 
weather that will last at least a week

This morning was another "coldest so far this season," and we should expect a lot of that type of morning as autumn advances.  

Burlington was at 41 degrees as of 7 a.m. today, the coldest it's been since May 12. Most of Vermont was in the mid and upper 30s at that hour. Morrisville was at 33, so they likely had a touch of frost. 

I've talked in past posts about that amazing streak of steady weather we've had. High temperatures have ranged only between 69 an 82 degrees since August 10.

 I don't think we've ever seen anything like that, lasting this long. That streak is about to end. It was definitely inevitable.  It ain't summer anymore. 

In early September, the normal temperature was slowly drifting down, reluctantly leaving the summer season. Now, average temperatures are cratering. At the start of the week, the average temperature for the date was 64. Today it's 61.5 degrees. By the last day of the month it'll be 56.5 degrees. 

It's getting cool fast. Despite sunshine, temperatures will only recover to the 60s today. Still nice, but cool. And then it gets worse.

SUNDAY

This will be a shock to the system. Clouds will have arrived and rain will be overspreading Vermont.  Forecasts have become a little more optimistic for statewide rain, instead of mostly just hitting the south. 

It won't be a super soaker, and it won't really ease the drought in the Northeast Kingdom. Especially since that area will get the least rain out of this, maybe a quarter inch. Otherwise, the northern half of Vermont is currently in for a quarter to a half inch, with southern Vermont seeing a half inch to an inch. 

While all this is going on, cold air will be feeding down from Quebec. That means high temperatures might only reach the 50s. The National Weather Service says it might well be the coldest daytime temperatures for this time of year since 1990. 

It this were late October or early November, this situation might have been an early seasons snowstorm. It's way too early for that. So not to worry, it'll just be a chilly rain. 

Today will be a good day to dig out all the fleece and hats and warm pants out of the closet. Tomorrow will be a good day to stay inside and watch football or binge watch Netflix or something. 

MONDAY-FRIDAY

A chilly week is ahead.  The mountainsides in Vermont are still mostly green. But a long spell of cool weather that's starting today and lasting all week will really begin to change that. 

Next week is a fantastic recipe for setting the stage for a potentially beautiful fall foliate season. We'll have lots of sun, with cool temperatures. The colder valleys will likely have frost each morning, at least Monday through Wednesday, if not beyond. Highs should be in the 58 to 65 degree range, cool for this time of year. 

Meanwhile a very slow moving storm looks like it might form and intensify off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Early guesses are it will become the first nor'easter of the season.  The weather pattern is hard to predict. Will the cool high pressure system to our north keep the storm away from Vermont? Or will it spread clouds and a chilly rain our way toward the end of the week? As always, stay tuned! 

Drought Monitor: Vermont Dry Conditions Unchanged Since Last Week

A drought is deepening across eastern New England and
Vermont is on the western fringe of that drought. 
Below normal rainfall is forecast for at least the
next week in northern New England. 

Drought conditions and dry soil conditions remained the same in Vermont over the past seven days, according to the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor.    

 Moderate drought still covered nearly a quarter of the state east of the Green Mountains and north of about Bradford. 

Abnormally dry conditions extended across the rest of northern Vermont east of the western foothills of the Green Mountains, according to the report, which was released Thursday morning. 

Vermont remains on the eastern edge of deepening drought in northeastern New England. Drought expanded a little in New Hampshire in the past week. All of Maine is in at least moderate drought, up from 75 percent of the state. Nearly 20 percent of Maine is in severe drought. And for the first time this drought cycle, a small area of the central Maine coast is in extreme drought.

The outlook isn't good. We've fallen into a weather pattern that soaks southern New England and leaves the north high and dry. 

Here in Vermont, the southern third of the state expect a half inch to an inch of rain between now and Sunday morning. Pretty decent. That tapers off to less than a quarter inch of rain north of Route 2. In Maine, up to a half inch of rain is forecast along the coast in the next day or so, but it won't be enough to really dent the drought. Up in northern Maine, little rain is forecast. 

Another problem: When there's a big El Nino, autumn tend to be dry in northern New England. Especially in September and October.  Not every time, but often. And sometimes that dry weather extends into the early winter. 

The drought could become worse. On top of that, all that greenery out there is going to turn brown and dry. Autumn leaves will fall, and become crunchy tinder underfoot, ready to start a new fire.

Already, there's been a recent forest fire in Vermont. A small, but difficult forest fire is burning on Hogback Mountain, near Bristol. Crews on Saturday had to haul water in backpacks and climb over ledges to get to the half-acre fire.

They dug a containment line around it, but it was burning underground. That's how dry it is. Even the half inch of rain that fell Saturday night did little to stop it. The blaze was likely an improperly extinguished recreational fire, according to the Bristol Fire Department. 

Just another reason to be vigilant about fire as the North Country dries out. 

 

A Noticeable Step Down Into A Vermont Autumn In The Coming Week

Like most of the landscape in Vermont's Champlain Valley
the big maple and other trees around my St. Albans house
are still green. That might start to change as noticeably
cooler weather settles in tomorrow and 
probably lasts through next week

 Very often, when seasons change, there are steps up or down. Sometimes in the fall, you get a stretch of weather that's relatively stable for a week.  

Then suddenly, it's a few degrees cooler, and that chillier regime holds for a week or so. Then it gets cooler yet. 

It's not an even process. As we know we get some lingering warm spells thrown in. Indian Summer, or just a stretch of warm days with balmy southwest breezes.

I bring this up because we're about to take a step down, further into autumn. 

This deeper dive into autumn won't start until tomorrow. Let's get into the details

TODAY

Still warm, and, truth be told, vaguely humid. Certainly not the humidity we deal with in the summer. Just a hint of moisture in the air that will make you sweaty if you really exert yourself. 

Highs should get into the 70s, but this won't be a late breaking brilliant summer day. Clouds should dominate, though there might be a break or two of sun, especially north. Don't count on it, though. 

 A weak disturbance should set off some rain and showers today, mostly in the southern half of Vermont. There might even be some brief downpours. We were already seeing a few very light showers in central Vermont as of 8 a.m., but the bulk of the rain will hit this afternoon

Rainfall in southern Vermont should come out near a quarter inch, maybe a little more in a few spots. 

The north, especially far northwest should be mostly dry, with rainfall amounts today ranging from nothing to maybe a tenth of an inch. 

FRIDAY

The step down to cooler weather should definitely be noticeable tomorrow. A cold front tonight will sweep in much drier air, leading to a sunny, delightful, slightly cool September day. Highs should reach the 60s for most of us. Maybe some upper 50s in the Northeast Kingdom and near 70 in the warmest banana belt valley towns. 

This will all happen with pleasant northwest breezes and under blue skies, flecked with a few clouds. 

That'll set us up for a cold night. I think the National Weather Service might issue frost advisories again for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks across the pond in New York. Lows in the cold hollows could easily touch freezing. 

For the rest of us, lows will probably be in 36 to 46 degree range by dawn Saturday, with the warmest readings near Lake Champlain. 

SATURDAY

Even cooler as autumn continues to establish itself. After the chilly morning, highs should only get into the 60s under generally sunny skies. Some clouds might increase later in the day. But all in all, a nice day. 

SUNDAY

This looks like the first cold, raw, damp day of the autumn. That first gloomy, chilly day usually comes about now, so it's right on schedule. A storm sliding by the south will provide more rain to the bottom half of Vermont, not so much to the north. 

Early guess are maybe a tenth of an inch of new rain up by the Canadian order to as much as three quarters to an inch of rain far south. 

Highs should only be near 60. Especially in rainier southern Vermont highs could hold only in the 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

At this point, it looks like another big, fat high pressure system will come down from central Canada and then stall nearby. Early in the week, probably Monday and/or Tuesday morning, we'll need to look at the risk of frost again. Monday will probably be the coolest  day, but it will slowly warm up after that. 

But not much. The step down to autumn weather is complete. Daily highs should be in the 60s Monday through Thursday. In the Northeast Kingdom, there will probably be at least give consecutive mornings, starting Saturday, with lows in the 30s. 

Forecasters are unsure whether the stalled high will keep skies sunny all week, or whether some moisture could work on in from the south with clouds and a risk of light rain. 

KEY MESSAGE 3: Our region should be under the influence of a
seasonably cool high pressure area gradually moving eastward to
start the work week. Temperatures should be about 10 degrees
below normal Monday trending to around normal on Wednesday. With
this pattern and 925 millibar temperatures falling to near the
10th percentile, Tuesday morning should be another frosty one 

for sheltered areas that already saw frost Saturday morning.s 

Repeated Rain Chances Keep Heading South Of Vermont

This is subject to change, but this is an guess as to how
much rain will fall between now and Saturday morning
As you can see northern areas largely miss out.
All the good soakers are going mostly to our south

 We could surely use more rain in Vermont. A series of weak, but very wet disturbance are about to turn much of the Northeast soggy. But the Green Mountain State looks like it will largely miss out. 

Southern Vermont might still eke out a decent wetting over the next several days. But unless there's an abrupt change in the forecast, northern Vermont will miss out. 

The first disturbance came in yesterday with ominous afternoon clouds in the north which amounted to......about three raindrops. 

It seems like days in advance, we think we're going to get a soaking, then it turns out not to be a big deal.Thi

Let's walk through the forecast;

TODAY

The warmest day of the week. Then gloom overhead should break up somewhat to become a variably cloudy day. Highs should get well into the 70s, with some banana belt warm valleys touching 80 degrees. One of summer's last gasps. 

THURSDAY

We're in a squeeze play between a front to the south that will have a little disturbance riding along it and a cold front coming in from the  north. 

This setup looks like it will create some rain in the south. But questions remain as to how far north this might get. Varying computer models disagree so we might have some surprises. For now. maybe a quarter to a third of an inch of rain might come down in southern Vermont. That would gradually taper off to a trace to a tenth of an inch north. 

Again, results may vary. 

We're into September now, so we're more likely to see just plain rain rather than scattered showers and thunderstorms. So, probably no thunder tomorrow. Highs should make it into the low and mid 70s for most of us so not bad. 

FRIDAY

We'll squeeze in a classic autumn day. We should have sunshine with highs in the 60s to near 70. A brisk northwest breeze will add a chilly bite to the air. Humidity will plummet, says the National Weather Service, setting us up for a chilly night with frost possible in colder places again

SATURDAY

Dawn Saturday is looking a little colder than the nippy one we experienced yesterday.  Just a couple degrees makes a big difference on whether you'll see frost or not. Only one or two isolated areas had frost yesterday. Saturday morning, this frost might hit a few more of the colder hollows of northern and central Vermont. 

I imagine some places might end up falling under a frost advisory. Stay tuned for updates.  The rest of the day should be more typical September. Highs in the 60s with maybe some increasing clouds. 

The next rainy system looks like it would arrive Saturday night and Sunday. Early indications are this one could, once again, go by to our south, but there's plenty of time for that forecast to change

National Weather Service Goes Along With "Lake America" An Expensive Way To Confuse The Public

It's still Lake Ontario in my book. But Trump, and now
the National Weather Service, among others, are 
calling it "Lake American" to satisfy, Trump's 
temper tantrum over Canada. 

The National Weather Service is go along with Donald Trump's tantrum and will now call Lake Ontario, "Lake America."  

This is in response to our Crybaby In Chief renaming Lake Ontario and calling it Lake America.  That's because Canada decided not to let Trump dictate its trade policy with other nations. 

Kind of a "We'll show 'em. We'll rename the lake."

In a public information statement issued Monday, the NWS said, "Work is underway to update naming conventions as quickly as possible on online maps, weather products, websites and other materials across the NWS."

The National Weather Service, obviously, is part of the federal government. It's overseen by the Commerce Department, which is headed by Howard Lutnick, who is a classing Trump brownoser. 

So the NWS really had no choice with this. 

As Matthew Cappucci notes on X, that the National Weather Service now needs to adjust its software and map interfaces, for about 860 days anyway. Until the next president, hopefully much more sensible than Trump, will change the lake's name to its original Lake Ontario. 

Same is true about the Gulf of Mexico.  In January, 2025, Trump renamed it "Gulf of America." The National Weather Service had to go along with that one, too. 

The private forecasting company AccuWeather said it would also call it Lake America. "As we have always done, we are adhering to the standards set by the U.S.Board on Geographic Names, which recently updated its standards with regards to Lake America."

As they ignore the politicization of place names under Trump.  

Meanwhile, many new agencies, some mapping companies and virtually all the rest of the world still refer to the bodies of water as Gulf of Mexico and Lake Ontario.  

For the record, I continue to call that body of water between Florida and Texas the Gulf of Mexico. And that big body of water west of Watertown, New York will continue to be Lake Ontario in my mind and in this here blog thingy. 

As the BBC reports:

"The organization and financial burden of the name change will likely all on the United States and its taxpayers. 'This adds another unnecessary one to US expenses which in total can exceed hundreds of millions of dollars annually,' said Usha Haley, Barton Distinguished Chair of International Business at Wichita State University. 'People have to divert time, another important resource, to manage these changes for different audiences.'

In other words, the most expensive temper tantrum ever. 

The renaming of Lake Ontario will cause confusion among the public, especially late this autumn and winter when Lake Ontario generates those big snow squalls. Can you picture it? "Heavy lake effect snow bands are coming off Lake America?" Where the hell is Lake America?

It's even more confusing because the lake is that the U.S/Canadian border goes roughly through the middle of it. Canada, of course, will continue to call it Lake Ontario. 

After all, there's no requirement that everybody goes along with Trump.  Google and Apple caved to Trump and will refer to Lake Ontario to Lake America.

MapQuest has opted to continue calling it Lake Ontario. This company was considered a bit of a has been among the mapping companies, but this situation has given them a second life. The company saw a big surge in downloads after it announced it was sticking with Lake Ontario.

Note that, companies that want to kow-tow to Trump. 

 The Associated Press will continue to call it Lake Ontario. 

"As a global news agency that disseminates news around the world, the AP must ensure that place names and geography are recognizable to broad audiences," the news organization said in a statement, 

 In general and historically, news organization copy the style of the AP. 

The AP continued to call Gulf of Mexico just that after Trump decided to rename it Gulf of America. Trump responded by blocking the AP from attending White House news conferences and other events.

This has turned into a First Amendment battle that is still going on in the courts

 For what it's worth, Oswego County, New York has opted to continue to call in Lake Ontario, apparently because the county government is actually run by adults. 

County officials said the name has historical and cultural significance, and they don't feel like saddling taxpayers and businesses with the cost of the rebranding. By the way, Oswego County is run by Republicans and the county is bastion of support for Trump in what is mostly a blue state. 

While Oswego County, New York resident won't have to bear the cost of the name change in county taxes, we, and the rest of us will. 

As the BBC reports:

"The organization and financial burden of the name change will likely all on the United States and its taxpayers. 'This adds another unnecessary one to US expenses which in total can exceed hundreds of millions of dollars annually,' said Usha Haley, Barton Distinguished Chair of International Business at Wichita State University. 'People have to divert time, another important resource, to manage these changes for different audiences.'

In other words, the most expensive temper tantrum ever. 

 

 

 

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney responded on X, saying that Canadians would continue to call the lake Lake Ontario, a name that dates back over 400 years.

 

Matt Lanza

@mattlanza

·

4h

So incredibly stupid.

Quote

Michael Lowry

@MichaelRLowry

·

5h

The @NWS is proceeding with renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America in all forecast products and maps. These sort of changes require extensive coding time for @NOAA and @NWS personnel to implement across so many different products that regularly reference them. x.com/RyanNBC6/statu…

Andrew Markowitz

@amarkowitzWX

·

2h

It may not seem like a big deal, but these are tax dollars needlessly spent on antagonizing our neighbor, ally, and friend Canada for petty reasons. It also puts meteorologists, who strive to be unbiased, apolitical sources of truth, in a bind regardless of how they name it.