The Long Dangerous, Twisted Journey Of The Alleged Arsonist Of The Destructive Spokane Wildfires

Devastating scene in Spokane, Washington 
after the fires. An arsonist set the fire. The
alleged suspect has quite a history of 
crime, arson and mental illness. 

 Aaron Farinacci, the man arrested and charged with the worst of the devastating Spokane wildfires, allegedly has a history of setting fires around the city.  This one just happened to be by far the worst. 

The more information that comes out, the more court hearings we have, the more we learn that Farinacci appears to be a dangerous and deeply troubled man. 

He is charged with setting the largest and most destructive wildfire in Spokane. But court records indicate he has a history of setting fires. He giant Spokane fire was just by far the worst one he set. I  

The AP paints a vivid picture of how the horrible wildfire began: 

"On Saturday, Paul Child, 64, was driving with his grandson along some railroad tracks in his rural neighborhood northwest of Spokane. He saw a man standing and looking toward nearby trees. About 10 minutes later, as they were returning home, the man was still there.

'He was bent over in the brush, acting nervous,' Child told the Associated Press on Tuesday, 'You get the feeling this guy's up to something.'

"No longer than 10 minutes after I got home, my daughter says, 'There's a fire,'" Child called. My first words were 'That SOB started a fire!," it was the exact spot where he was standing.'"

As noted in a previous blog post,  a responding sheriff's deputies found the man matching the description Child offered walking more than a mile away from the fire's ignition point. Child arrived and basically said, "That's the guy."

Farinacci was wearing a green t-shirt that read, 'Who needs luck I have charm,"  In his backpack and fanny pack, he had cigarettes, waterproof matches and a butane lighter. 

He told deputies when he was arrested he didn't set the fire and was not anywhere near where the blaze started. The deputies were unaware of Farinacci's past suspicious activity with fires, and they were busy coordinating evacuations, so they let him go.

By Monday, August 3, investigators knew the fire was deliberately set, and the arrest was made. 

Farinacci haas quite a history anyway.  He served about a decade in prison for killing his father 16 years ago in Arizona. He was 21 years old at the time, and the shooting stemmed from an argument with his father over doing the dishes.  

 As KREM reports, Farninacci shot his father once in the face as he entered his room, the again in the back as the father turned to leave. He later died at a hospital.

Farinacci ran from the house and shot himself in the chest with the same gun he used on his father.  Farinacci later told police the shooting was an accident and told them he "deserved to be sentenced to prison as he took someone's life."

KREM continues: "He was convicted of manslaughter and aggravated assault in 2012. He was released from prison in 2020, and records show that he was discharged from probation in 2024 while living with a girlfriend in Washington State."  

Farinacci, 37, is suspected of setting several fires, each of which only covered areas about the size of buses. Another fire last August that he might have started blazed through a state park prompting evacuations, though no houses burned, according to the Associated Press.

During a court hearing Thursday, Angust 6, Judge Jeremy Schmidt found probable cause to charge Farinacci with four additional counts of arson for fires the suspect told a detective he's set since last summer. 

If detectives, prosecutors and court papers are accurate, Farinacci is a scary dude with potentially serious mental issues. Even if you don't include the time he shot his father

As KREM reports: "He told detectives his son was born in May, 2025 and he was 'having trouble dealing with life issues.'  A detective who interviews Farinacci wrote, "He feels fire is powerful, beautiful, and that things that go through fire experience a kind of rebirth."

Detectives said Farinacci admitted to starting 25 fires since last July. He's only been charged with four of them because detectives couldn't corroborate that information. One of the fires he's suspected of starting was on in July, 2025 which burned more than 1,200 and threatened some homes.

Investigators said Farinacci that "'Who needs luck I have charm" t-shirt when he set a fire on August 11, 2025.

Six days before the big conflagration, on July 24, Farinacci said what he started what is known as the Indian Bluff Fire, which ultimately harmed no homes. 

By July 31 Spokane and the rest of eastern Washington was under a particularly dangerous red flag warning, meaning the risk of wildfires the next day would be extremely 

Farinacci was paying attention to the weather forecasts. He'd waited at least a couple weeks for a day with high winds, hot temperatures and low humidity. He also said he researched other arsonists and ways to create time delay devices for setting wildfires, KREM reported.

If that's true, he weaponized weather warnings meant to protect the public. This raises another issue. There's absolutely no evidence Farinacci was involved in weather betting.

On-line prediction markets like Polymarket allow people to bet on the outcome events, like elections, sports and other occurrences. 

"It's not just easy to start a fire - now there's a potential financial incentive," said Kaitlyn Trudeau,  a California-based climate scientist with Climate Central. 

For example, as High Country News points out Polymarket list nearly 20 questions to be on during the January 2025 Los Angeles area wildfire calamity.  

The questions included "How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday? Will the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisads fire be 50% contained?"

You can see the logical next betting question is, "How big will the next wildfire get during the next red flag warning." And you can see how somebody might start a fire so they can win big with the online gambling. 

In any event, on that dry, windy August 1, the alleged arsonist said the picked the spot where he set the big fire because he knew it would be bad, though he didn't intend for the blaze to get as big as it did. He placed a time delay device in the dry grass.

Those hundreds of Spokane area homes were now doomed. Residents will be picking up the pieces for a long time. 

The Associated Press said that the other two major fires around Spokane on August 1 were started by humans, but officials didn't say whether the fires were intentional or accidental.  

Meanwhile, while most other fires across the West were started by lightning or human accidents, some are being investigated as arson. One horrible very mentally ill people can wreck the lives of so many others. 

Much Of Nation So Rainy That Widespread Flood Risks This Week. In Vermont, Not So Much

A torrential downpour in Colchester this past Saturday.
Despite that spot of super wet weather for an hour or'
so, Vermont is starting to get a little dry, but we're'
so far not plunging into a dangerous drought like
we did at this time last year. 

 It'll be a super rainy week in much of the United States this week, with flood potential cropping up in huge areas of the Lower 48. 

Today it's the Ohio Valley and southern Arizona. Tomorrow, it's the same places, plus the central Appalachians, with West Virginia particularly in the cross hairs. Wednesday, same places, same risk. 

Thursday, it's a huge area covering the eastern Rocky Mountains and a wide stripe from Iowa to West Virginia (again!), 

Unfortunately, Washington, Oregon and much of British Columbia, ablaze with wildfires, can expect little or no rain for at least the next week. 

Here in Vermont, NOAA has us in a marginal risk of a flash flood tonight in case we have locally heavy downpours, but the risk looks really, really low. 

I'm not hoping for any floods here in Vermont. Gawd knows we've had enough of that in recent years. But with the notably exception of the Burlington area and parts of Addison County, rainfall has been lacking lately.

Dryish areas are close to those few soggy areas. For instance, Burlington has had a healthy 2.69 inches of rain so far this month. Meanwhile, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, maybe just 30 miles north of Burlington, has had just 0.91 inches,

We're definitely not falling into a dangerous, deep drought like we were at this time last year. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, only the tiniest sliver of Vermont right along the Massachusetts border was considered abnormally dry during July and the first week of August. 

Abnormally dry is a level that's a precursor to drought, though not actually in one. 

Last week's report introduced a new "abnormally dry" region covering most of the Northeast Kingdom. 

As I mentioned above, some rain is in the forecast, but the deep moisture that we had in place late last week and over the weekend is mostly gone. That means super soakers of rain are less likely. 

For now, we're going to see quick-hitting weather systems that will provide some rain. Unless things change, though, I don't see any widespread drenching rains in our immediate future.

As always, here are the details: 

TODAY

The next weather front is on its way for an arrival later today into tonight. That will bring our next round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Before we get there, highs today under partly cloudy skies should get to near 80 degrees. You'll notice the humidity creeping up again, though it won't be as bad as it was Friday and Saturday.

Though some locally heavy downpours are possible tonight, most areas won't see all that much rain. 

Amounts will be highly variable as they always are with summertime cold fronts. But in general, it looks like areas north of Route 2 might see a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a trace to a quarter inch further south. Again with localized exceptions. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

Nice late summer weather after lingering showers clear out early Tuesday. Both days will feature sunny afternoons with reasonably low humidity levels. Not rock bottom, but close enough. Highs should get up to somewhere in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Tuesday night will be our firs real ahhhhh night in awhile, as lows will drop into the 50s,

THURSDAY

The next quick cold front come through. It looks like a fairly lengthy stretch of shower risks from Wednesday night through Friday morning. However, with the exception of locally heavy downpours, so far, this rainfall also looks unimpressive. Stay tuned on that in case there are any changes. Could be, as there's a chance this system could grab better moisture. So far, though, I'm pessimistic on a soaker.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Once we get this far ahead of ourselves, take forecasts with not a grain of salt, but with a great big hunk of frozen together rock salt. But as it stands now, we have a shot at some delightful weather, with just a hint of autumn. 

Daytime highs under (cross your fingers) sunny skies would stay in the 70s. Nighttime lows would be within a few degrees either side of 50, so definitely some great sleeping weather. 

REST OF THE MONTH

So far, there's not many signs of weather excitement for us, but those kinds of things can emerge as we get closer to specific events. For now, it looks like we'll stay in a pretty fast west to east wind flow. That means frequent but not huge shifts in the weather. Under this scenario, we'd have occasional quick hits of showers interspersed with sunny periods that are neither particularly hot or cool for this time of year.

Since summer isn't quite over, there might be a very warm, humid day or two thrown into the mix, but nothing too scary. 

Vermont Begins Slow Descent Out Of Humidity Hell. Also, Wild Storm Hits Part Of Champlain Valley Saturday

Storm clouds over Colchester, Vermont swirl as a severe
thunderstorm approached late Saturday afternoon,

We were expected some garden variety storms Saturday, but the one that struck the southern Champlain Islands and northwestern Chittenden County was anything but. Anyone who was in that storm had an exciting hour or so. 

The largely isolated severe storm blew up on approach from New York toward South Hero, Vermont. In South Hero, there were many branches and trees down, and hail reached the size of quarters and even half dollars. 

It must have been chaos at Sand Bar State Park.  A very warm, humid day that surely lured crowds to the beach was interrupted by the storm packing 62 mph winds at the park. The storm continued on into the Burlington metro area, with slightly less wind but with torrential, blinding rain. 

Burlington had 1.09 inches of rain in just an hour, quickly flooding streets in Burlington, South Burlington and Williston. The total rainfall of 1.22 inches in Burlington was a record for the date.

After Burlington, the storm broke up into numerous showers and storms that gave most of the northern half of Vermont a decent wetting. The exception was the most of the northern Champlain Valley. St. Albans just had a trace of rain in a brief sprinkle. 

Another severe storm caused a lot of damage in western Massachusetts, including a partial building collapse in Springfield, Massachusetts that displaced 46 people. 

After that storminess, Vermont will gradually descend out of the intense humidity that has plagued us for the past three days.

TODAY

Williston Road in South Burlington flooded after 
Saturday's severe storm. Moments after this
photo was taken, police closed the road.

We're starting the day almost as humid as it's been for the past few days. The humidity will continue to go down slightly, so by afternoon, it won't exactly be comfortable, but still noticeably better than yesterday. 

Early this morning, we still had some clouds and widely scattered sprinkles around, but it should largely clear up by afternoon. 

There's a little wildfire smoke in the atmosphere - we'll have to get used to that as the western U.S. continues to burn - but the smoke won't be enough to block the sun or cause a lot of health issues. 

MONDAY

Dawn will break Monday with air more comfortable than we've seen in days. Still mild, with a low within a few degrees either side of 60 degrees.

It will turn somewhat more humid again, but not as bad as yesterday. Another cold front is coming, and clouds will increase. Showers and storms will start to creep in during the afternoon. Scattered stuff, hit or miss. Some of us will stay dry during the day. 

We'll have quite a few showers and rumbles of thunder around Monday night. They won't amount to much. Most of us will see a quarter inch of rain or less.

TUESDAY

Probably a nice day. Sunshine, somewhat less humid air will help.  Highs should reach 80 degrees, or maybe low to mid 80s in the warmer valleys. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

The next cold front in our gradual cool down and humidity flushing will approach.  Wednesday might temporarily be a little more humid than Tuesday, but not anywhere nearly as bad as we just endured. This will be a quick moving system, so the rain Wednesday night and Thursday again won't be particularly heavy. 

FRIDAY/SUNDAY

Cool weather! Quick moving, weak weather disturbances will keep light showers chances going. But the sun will be out during at least part of the days will be sunny. And it won't be humid! Highs will only be in the 70s and lows will drop into the 50s.  

Rain Oddly Lacking In Vermont's "Florida Weather" Spell; Gradual Trend To Big, Long Cooldown Starts In Upcoming Week

Chaotic looking sky over St. Albans, Vermont early
last evening as showers and storms tried to develop
over New York state. By the time the showers or
their remnants reached Vermont later in the
evening, most of us got very little rain. 

 It's really sticky out there again as we wake up this Saturday morning, but the end is in sight. It will be a gradual trend toward cooler, less humid air but we'll get there. More on that in a bit. 

One thing that's sort of surprising me about this spell of super humid air is the lack of rainfall in most places. I tend to associated such high humidity with lots of downpours and even flash flooding. 

A few places have experience just that, but the majority of us so far haven't. 

For instance, through around mid-morning yesterday, most places in Vermont had received less than a quarter inch of rain. 

Many places had nothing. There were just a few exceptions to that. Shoreham was drenched with 2.4 inches of rain in the 24 hours ending midmorning Friday. 

The widely scattered towns of Shelburne, Orwell and West Rutland picked up about an inch during that time. t 

More showers and storms formed yesterday afternoon and last night, but they also didn't wet down all that many people.

Overnight, the National Weather Service office in Burlington saw fit to issue a flash flood warning for an area on the New York side of Lake Champlain due to slow moving downpours. This was in a zone generally encompassing Elizabethtown, Westport, Essex, Moriah, Willsboro and Keene. 

Burlington is just about the only major town or city in Vermont that has made out well with the rain. They've had an inch of rain since Thursday. Here in St. Albans, we've at least had some wetting, but not much. We had just 0.12 inches overnight for a two-day total of right around a quarter inch. I'll still have to keep the sprinklers handy, even if there is more rain in the forecast. 

The same state of affairs with scattered showers and storms will continue today. Many of us could get a little wet, but probably only a small number of us will get thoroughly drenched. The details:

TODAY

Whatever overnight rain we did receive had mostly moved out. as of 8 a.m. today. Some showers were lingering in the Northeast Kingdom. 

More scattered downpours had already gotten going in central New York and those might head toward central Vermont, if they hold together, Which is iffy. More showers and storms will develop in the horribly humid air this afternoon and evening. 

As always, it's hard to say exactly who gets the storms. Though there are some tentative indications that central Vermont has the best chance, we'll see. The showers and storms won't be moving all that quickly.  So there's a minimal risk that a handful of places could see some very local flash flood issues if a downpour stalls overhead,  No guarantee, but it's slightly possible.  

In any event, all of us will continue to wilt in high humidity today. Highs should make it back into the low and mid 80s. Maybe some isolated upper 80s where it doesn't rain, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

Tonight will remain humid with patches of fog forming. Some lingering widely scattered showers could linger well into the night.

SUNDAY

Actually, not terrible. Pretty darn good, in fact! After a risk of early morning showers, skies should become at least partly sunny. The humidity will be down, too. It won't exactly be refreshing, but it will feel only a little on the sticky side. Highs should get well into the 80s again. Winds will he on the light side, so we should have a decent beach and boating day. 

MONDAY

The shift in the weather pattern will be beginning, but we won't quite feel it yet on Monday. An approaching cold front will gradually cloud up our skies. Humidity will rise again, but not quite to the level we saw in the past couple of days. 

We'll have a rising chance of shower and maybe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with highs in the 80s.

TUESDAY

This will be our first step down as we enter a cooling trend that will also gradually lower our humidity levels. Dew points should be in the low 60s again by afternoon, which isn't terrible. Highs will be seasonably near 80 under what we think will be partly sunny skies.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY

A series of weather disturbance will zip through in a fast west to east flow. Each one of these will bring our temperatures down a couple notches. Since these disturbances will be moving fast and we'll be out of the super humid air, we probably won't get all that much rain. 

By the end of the week and into next weekend, we'll be seeing daytime highs in the 70s and lows probably in the mid and upper 50s. That's actually a little cooler than average for mid-August. 

With the usual caveat that long range forecast can change, I really don't see any signs of more heat and humidity until at least the last week of August. Maybe beyond that, who knows. Could this be the end of summer? 

The answer is probably not. But after this weekend, I think we might be passing the peak risk of heat and humidity for the summer. We've actually entered solar autumn. The 25 percent of the year with strongest sun and longest daylights ended earlier this week. That puts us in "solar autumn" the 25 percent of the year when daylight shortens the quickest.  

However, in our topsy-turvy climate changed and El Nino world we're in now, we could still see some torrid weather in September. It's just that the chances of that happening are diminishing.  

Friday Vermont Weather Update: The Humidity Keeps Wilting Us

An afternoon thunderstorm darkens the muggy Thursday
afternoon skies looking west from St. Albans. The 
humidity will more or less linger with continued
rain chances into the early week

Well, we survived the first day of our wilting humidity. 

On Thursday, it was actually a little hotter than expected in some areas. Burlington reached 91 degrees, as opposed to the forecast mid to upper 80s. 

It was the tenth time this year it's been 90 degrees.  And, it's the seventh year in a row in which we've had ten 90s in a year. That's unprecedented. Before this run, the most consecutive years with ten 90s was four, back in the 1940s.

OK, enough confusion with number. As expected, there were some showers and thunderstorms around. Burlington made out like a bandit with rainfall, as they received 0.64 inches.   A weakening, but still potent storm was responsible for much of that rain.  

The storm developed in the Adirondacks and blew up on the western shore of Lake Champlain. It looks like a lake breeze hit the storm, creating added lift in the atmosphere, That made the storm  blow up. Somebody on the New York shore probably got quite a storm, though I see no damage reported this morning.

The Burlington area was under a severe thunderstorm watch for a time. But once the storm passed the lake breeze, there was not enough general instability in the air to sustain it. It weakened on its way to and beyond Burlington. 

Elsewhere, while storms weren't severe, heavy rain was reported in parts of Addison County. Otherwise, the rain wasn't too widespread and those that receive rain had light amounts. Here in St. Albans, we picked up just 0.14 inches of rain. 

This morning, we wake to sticky conditions, as planned. Let's go through the daily forecasts to see how we'll get out of this muggy mess. Hint: We might have subtle ever-so-slight breaks in the humidity before the noticeably more comfortable air arrives next week

TODAY

Another awful day, but there are some nice aspects to it. For one, showers and storms are very unlikely because dry air high in the atmosphere will, squelch attempts at any development.

Even better, we might get a few hours of a semi-break from the humidity. During peak heating some of the dry air aloft might briefly mix down to the surface. So instead of dew points in the terrible 70 degree range, they might fall to the low 60s for a few hours. Still a bit humid, but not terrible.

However, the potential, slight lack in humidity, coupled with sunshine, means we'll get well into the 80s today. Once again, a few places could touch 90 degrees.

Tonight, showers will creep in as the humidity rises again. Definitely another uncomfortable sleeping night. 

SATURDAY

A weather disturbance early in the morning, before dawn, will keep showers and thunderstorms going.  Hit and miss generally. But on top of the icky air keeping you up, you might hear the roar of a downpour on the roof or thunder rumbling around before dawn. 

There might be a late morning break in the showers and storms, but they'll redevelop in the afternoon and evening. As usual, all the storms will be hit and miss. None of the storms will be severe, but some will produce torrential downpours. With all that water in the air, that has to happen.

We might see an isolated incidence or two of flash flooding, but the vast majority of us will be fine.  Most of us will see less than a half an inch of rain between now and Saturday night, though, again, a few spots will get much more and a few others will receive much less.

Amid all these rain showers and under mostly cloudy skies, temperatures should still make it up into the low to mid  80s. Which doesn't sound bad until you add in the dew points that will be near 70 degrees. Florida weather continues. I suggest a movie matinee. We're in peak summer blockbuster season, so get thee to an air conditioned cinema.

SUNDAY

We might eke out a decent day. Showers will tend to diminish in the morning, leaving us with just a chance of widely scattered showers and storms in the afternoon. As it looks now most  of us will stay dry and the sun should make an afternoon appearance. Highs should get into the 80s, with a slight drop in humidity. We'll take anything at this point.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

The humidity and shower chances will continue, but we'll be in the process of changing up the weather pattern. The mugginess might not be quite as bad as it's been, and highs should only reach maybe the upper 70s to low 80s. 

MID TO LATE WEEK

The weather will turn seasonable, the humidity levels should fall to completely reasonable levels. We'll still have shower chances as disturbance zip in from the west. Since the humidity will be lower, I'm so far not worried about any heavy rains from those systems. 

Florida Humidity Has Arrive In Vermont. But We Can Already See Signs It Will Eventually End

Early this morning, the sky over St. Albans, Vermont
already had that unstable, humid, hazy look to it as
we begin a long spell of oppressive weather. 

 Well, that humidity blasted in early today, as scheduled. 

As of 10 a.m. dew points around Vermont were in the mid and upper 60s, which is sticky as hell. Over in New York State, a lot of low 70s dew points were popping up. Which is a sign it will get worse before it gets better. 

Regular readers will note that I'm posting my morning report closer to noon today, which is weird. I figured I'd be better off if I did some outdoor physical work that needs to get done early.  I was right, but toward the end I was dying. 

Be careful out there. Limited your activities and drink plenty of fluids. I'm drinking a big-ass bottle of Gatorade as I write this. 

The oppressive, Florida-like weather will stick around for awhile, as we've been saying the past few days. But, to give you a little encouragement, it is August.  This can't last forever. I'll get into that when I get into the daily forecasts below

In any event, there are nicks starting to appear in summer's fortress. It got down to 38 degrees in Hibbing, Minnesota yesterday morning. True, Hibbing is a traditional Minnesota cold spot, but still, I'll take it as a sign o an eventual autumn. 

Out in Denver, they're having a horribly hot summer, but they caught a big, if brief break. They had a record low of 47 degrees yesterday, which came just two days after a record high of 102. So yesterday must have been a relief for them. Unfortunately it's back to the upper 90s to around 100 degrees in Denver starting today and going through next Monday. 

Even so, as you can see, we start to see the first subtle hints of summer's eventual fading hold on us. And it does look like cooler, drier air will gradually reach Vermont next week. But careful what you wish for. The weather might seem refreshing later next week. But it will be snowing in three months or less. 

REST OF TODAY

Humid, duh! Since it is so muggy, there's a chance of showers and thunderstorms. They'll be hit or miss, so not all of us will see much relief from the awfulness out there. Those of you who get bullseyed by any storms could see some torrential downpours, since there's so much moisture in the air to work with. 

The best chance of storms would be the northwest half of Vermont, but even there, not everyone will get wet. The showers should be widely scattered at best in southeast Vermont and the Northeast Kingdom. Most of the rain will come after 4 p.m., but a pop up shower could appear at any time. There were a couple small downpours in northern New York already as of 10:30 a.m. 

Other than that, the storms won't become severe or anything like that.

Tonight the showers and storms should die down after sunset, and we're left with a sticky icky night. Hope you have air conditioning! 

FRIDAY:

Despite the Florida air, we probably won't have that much in the way of showers and storms. We'll be between little disturbance bobbing along in the southwest flow of air. All this will make Friday probably the worst day of this oppressive stretch. 

Friday's setup would normally give us temperatures above 90 degrees. But the air will be so wet that most of the sun's energy will go into trying to evaporate the moisture in the atmosphere. But since southwest winds will be pumping in more wet air, the humidity won't go down. 

The result will be dew points in the low 70s with highs well up into the 80s. There's a slight chance one or two towns will hit 90, but I'm not holding my breath. The humidity, though will definitely make it feel like it's in the 90s. 

Make tomorrow a lazy day. Your body will thank you. 

I suppose there's a chance of an isolated shower or storm, but the vast majority of us will be rain-free.

SATURDAY

Just as sticky and awful as Friday. But, there's a much better chance of showers Saturday than there was on Friday. So we might get some vaguely cooling rains from time to time. I think most everyone will see some rain. A few places will get very little, other places will get absolutely soaked with downpours. As is often the case in the summer, it's the luck of the draw.

SUNDAY

The first hints of relief. It should still be humid, but not quite as bad as today and tomorrow and Saturday. There should be a fair amount of sun, with a low risk of showers and storms. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Still muggy, still a risk of showers. But it will be slightly less humid that today and highs will only be in the low 80s. Still bad, but could be worse. Note this forecast is subject to change because it's quite a few days away

LATE NEXT WEEK

For now, forecasts continue to advertise more refreshing air for later in the week. There's still time for that forecast to get messed up, but for now, that's our true light at the end of this oppressive, muggy tunnel 

New Website To Replace Shuttered Climate.gov Thrives, But Can It Continue On A Long-Term Volunteer Basis?

A group of scientists have created climate.us to replace
a climate change information website to replace 
the federal website that the Trump administration
shut down so they can continue to deny that climate
change. So far. climate.us. seems quite popular

Our government does not work on our behalf. Under Trump, it's all about pleasing the billionaire class, along with associated scammers, criminals and such. 

So anything that is potentially helpful does not come from the federal government. 

So, we have to go around them. Canada, fed up with Donald Trump's constant verbal attacks and tariffs, is just creating new trade agreements with other nations and ignoring the United States. 

It's the same with information. Which takes us to a new website, climate.us.

Before the Trump goons took over, a NOAA-run website called climate.gov was a fantastic go-to place for climate information and the latest climate science. 

Climate science is, to steal from Al Gore's long ago book, an inconvenient truth to fossil fuel interests. Since Trump loves his billionaire fossil fuel buddies, so we can't have information on climate change lying around, can we?

So, Trump's administration shut down climate.gov's day to day operations last year. And big layoffs got rid of those pesky federal climate scientists who insisted fossil fuels were the problem. Gawd, science is so annoying!

Speaking o which, you can't keep climate scientists and climate information down. So in late June, the web site climate.us suddenly start to grace the internet. 

"Trusted climate information should not disappear when politics change," said Rebecca Lindsey, Managing Director of Climate.us."Climate.us is building an independent, durable platform so people can continue to find the data  and information they need to understand and talk about climate, and to teach, report, plan, prepare and make informed decisions."

The reborn climate web site restored the old Climate.gov's 15-year collection of climate news and stories, expert analysis, maps, data, classroom material and the Fifth National Climate Assessment.

Lindsey had been fired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as part of the infamous DOGE cutbacks of 2025. She had been the lead writer and editor of the she and her team had built over 15 or so years. 

After she lost her job, she worried about all the information on climate.gov and how the science there conflicted with the worldview of Trump and his minions. 

Sure enough, The Trumpsters shut down the web site, hilariously calling the move "restoring gold standard science." 

Climate.gov had been heavily used by educators, policymakers and just interested members of the public. After the shutdown, people who had worked on the climate.gov website met periodically to figure out what could be preserved from the web site. They settled on created an independent, nongovernmental version, which is climate.us, reports Grist. 

Climate.us.is not just an archive. Frequent updates will include new videos, articles, Q&As and other features. "We just try to constantly take the pulse of what scientists say is valuable and important and needs to be talked about and explained,' Lindsey said. 

The web site launched in mid-June and received roughly 800,000 page views, which is pretty good, considering the old NOAA site had about a million views per month. 

The fact that climate.us is popular is also reflected in the funding. Lindsey ad her team crowdsourced $280,000 to get the technical part of the climate site off the ground. 

Volunteer also readily signed up to run climate.us including 80 scientists who are serving as subject matter experts to fact check what the site publishes, NPR reports. An anonymous donor also provided a one-time grant that will keep the site up until at least February, 2027.

Grabbing the content from the old climate.gov, was easy, since it was public information anyway. The technical aspects were harder, including establishing a cost-effective search capability on the site. But it's been done. Where there's a will there's a way. 

It's an example of how we now need to get accurate information from our now very inaccurate government. As NPR reported

"Now we have a lot of expertise outside the government because of so much brain drain from the government, and we can really stand up things. We can have powerful interventions, and (Climate.us), I think is a success story of that," said Gretchen Gehrek a science communicator at the Environmental /da and Governance Initiative, a nonprofit group that works to make information about the environment available to the public. 

It's not just climate.us.  As Grist reports, other groups are trying to take over the tasks that the Trumpsters abandoned: 

"The American Geophysical Union is trying to fill the void where it can. It has launched a global initiative to ensure that environmental datasets are more resilient against threats such as political interference, pulling together a group of 100 experts around the world.

It's also working with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world's leading authority on climate science, hosting an academic network that allows U.S. scientists to participate in key international reports even after the Trump administration withdrew from the group. 

Along with the American Meteorological Society, it has also released an invitation for climate manuscripts to maintain the research momentum of what would have been the sixth National Climate Assessment, with plans to eventually publish a special climate collection across different peer-reviewed journals." 

Also, NOAA used to track billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The Trump people ended that program last year. I guess it helped prove climate change is expensive, which we're not supposed know, apparently. 

So, Adam Smith who led the NOAA billion dollar disaster data base, is leading, maintaining and updating the information at the nonprofit Climate Central. Smith is working to take the project further and is working on documenting disasters that cost $100 million or more dating back to 1980.

This isn't a perfect solution. A patchwork of non-profit groups doesn't have the comprehensive presence of the federal government.  Donor money can dry up unpredictably.  But I'm encouraged by the outpouring of scientists who won't shut up, like the Trump regime wants. Science has gotta science, and we are grateful at least somebody isn't lying to us. 

Clear Skies In Vermont Yield To Long, Humid Spell Of Florida Weather. When Will It End? We Have Clues

A summer rarity. Yesterday afternoon's satellite photo
shows cloudless skies in northern New England, New York
and southern Ontario and Quebec. You see hints of 
wildfire smoke in Quebec. It's rare to see such a huge
area of cloudless skies in the summer. The afternoon
heat usual generates at least a few cumulus clouds

Believe it or not, yesterday was a weird weather day in Vermont.

It didn't seem weird. Just gorgeous. The odd part was the clouds. Or lack thereof. We spent the whole day in the Green Mountain State without a cloud in the sky. There were just the faintest hint of wildfire smoke, but that's it. 

We do have absolutely clear days in the spring and fall. Even, sometimes, in the winter. But cloudless summer skies are rare. There's usually enough lift in the atmosphere created by the heat of the day to generate at least a few puffy clouds over the mountains. 

Yesterday, nothing. No complaints, though it was a glorious summer day. 

Our cloudless days are over, thanks to the well-advertised burst of high humidity coming in starting today and intensifying Thursday. 

That miserable weather looks like it will stay with us until the early part of next week. There is hope, eventually that this will end. Keep reading and we'll tell you when

TODAY

Actually, still not bad. As far as clouds go, there will be some high clouds which will signal the more humid air coming in. And maybe a few puffy cumulus clouds over the mountains. But still, the sunshine will dominate. The humidity will be a higher than yesterday, but still not extreme. Highs in most places should get well into the 80s, so today is a great beach day. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Ugh, High humidity, partly cloudy skies and highs in the 80s.  Since the air will be like what Florida sees in the summer, we'll have Florida weather. That means scattered showers and thunderstorms, most likely in the afternoon and evening. Unlike Florida, Vermont has mountains. The hillsides will create updrafts that will help trigger the storms, so most - but not all - of the activity will be near the mountains. 

Not everybody will see a shower or storm. They will be hit and miss. Those that get hit will see a briefly cooling torrential downpour, but the mugginess will return fast. Unfortunately the nights will be stuffy as hell.

SATURDAY

More ugh.  This could change, but it appear showers and storms might be a little more widespread that the previous days. Dew points will still be in the miserable low 70s. That'll be the third day in a row of that kind of super high humidity, which is very unusual in Vermont. 

SUNDAY

More of the same? Really? Looks that way. If we're lucky, the dew point might drop by a couple points, but it will still remain horribly humid. We also have a shot at a mostly rain-free day, but that's still iffy at this point. 

NEXT WEEK

The week starts with more of the same, but the temperatures might be only near 80, instead of the low 80s. The humidity will still be awful but then --- a change in the weather!!

Signs are pointing toward notably cooler and much less humid air toward the end of next week. And that cooler regime might last quite awhile, if iffy long range forecasts are correct. The weather during that cool down might still be unsettled with a risk of showers. But at least we'll be able to sleep at night for a change. 

Spokane Becomes The Latest City Victimized By Climate Fires. More Surely To Come, Unfortunately

A woman rushes her dog away as her house burns down
Saturday during the Spokane wildfire. She reported lost
other pets in the blaze,

Spokane, Washington has joined the sad list of American towns and cities mowed down by marauding wildfires in recent years. 

Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016. Gatlinburg, Tennessee, also in 2016. Paradise, California in 2018. Lytton, British Columbia in 2021, the Boulder, Colorado area, also in 2021. Lahaina, Hawaii, 2023. Pacific Palisades and Altadena, California in 2025.

It's been quite a decade for fires blasting through North American towns and cities. The above is only the highlight. Numerous other smaller towns have lost many of their homes and businesses in other fires

Now, it's Spokane.

In just an afternoon and evening on August 1, more than 600 homes burned down in and around Spokane. Once again, we saw the horrible scenes of hasty evacuations, roads clogged with cars with panicked, fleeing families inside. 

History has other big fires smashing through towns of course. A wildfire in Peshtigo, Wisconsin that killed perhaps 2,000 people. 

An 1881 fire in Michigan killed 282 people.  An 1894 Minnesota wildfire killed more than 400 people. And in 1910 the so-called Great Fire swept through five million acres in Idaho, Montana and Washington. 

These urban firestorms seemed to calm down in much of the 20th century. Sure there were a few, like the Oakland-Berkeley  Hills firestorm in 1991, which killed 25 people. But too many of us assumed we had conquered the threat of a wildfire plowing into a town or a city

But now they're back. Especially over the past decade, as we noted.

WILDLAND-URBAN INTERFACE

One problem is the wildland-urban interface. More and more people are moving into woodsy areas as suburbs expand into once unpopulated areas. The appeal is obvious: A beautiful forest in your backyard, wildlife wandering by. It's hard to resist. 

The wildland-urban interfaces or WUI's, are not just in the western states. The states with the most houses in WUIs are California, Texas, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

There's always talk of adaption in these zones, to keep the house from burning.  Clear the brush and the trees away from the houses. Clean the gutters. That kind of thing. But judging from the way the ravaged neighborhoods in Spokane appeared.you can't fully adapt yourself out of extreme wildfires. 

The neighborhoods that burned were typical suburbia. Nice lawns, flower beds. Scattered decorative trees. The flammable pines and spruces safe in the background. Or so you'd think. 

Under normal circumstances, when a single house goes up in flames, due to an electrical problem, clumsy kitchen cooking, an unattended candle, a small army of firefighters arrive. Neighboring houses get soaked down so they don't burn, too. 

In wildfires, there's never enough personnel to protect every home. The entire forest behind the neighborhoods is on fire. Embers are everywhere, setting fire to the old leaves in the gutters, sneaking into the attic vents, setting the area beneath the roof on fire. The pretty decorative cedar against the foundation - dried out by months of drought - bursts into flames amid the sparks. That blaze quickly sets the house on fire.

On and on the fires go, hopscotching from one house to the next. In the end, in Spokane, at least 700 houses succumbed. That's how it works in the wild land-urban interface.

DRY WEATHER/CLIMATE CHANGE

We knew there would be trouble in eastern Washington on Saturday. It's been building since this past winter. Unprecedented warmth and a lack of snow meant the landscape dried out much earlier in the spring than it usually does. 

It doesn't rain much during the summer in eastern Washington. Normally June precipitation is 1.17 inches in Spokane. This year, Spokane received just 0.26 inches. The city usually gets just under a half inch of rain in July. This year, there was only a trace.

The area is absolutely arid at this point. This weekend a dry cold front passed through the region. West winds with the cold front gained momentum as they raced down the east slopes of the Cascade mountains, drying out as they did so, 

The smallest sparks erupted in to firestorms on Saturday, and the disaster landed.  

By Sunday, 920 firefighters were battling the blazes in and around Spokane. That number was expected to rise to 2,000 during this week. More than 65,000 people had been evacuated, with no word yet on when all of them will go home. 

The weather forecast across the Pacific Northwest is discouraging. The wind has diminished, but it will remain dry and hot for the foreseeable future. Winds are expected to increase this coming weekend, but they won't be as strong as they were last Saturday. 

 It's no coincidence that these urban and suburban wildfires have increased over the past decade. It's not just the wildland-urban interface.  Spokane is a great, sad example. Climate change helped make the winter warmer, the summer drier. You see it over and over again. Paradise, California hit because the winter rains were late. Same thing happened in Altadena in 2025. 

Climate change has made things so much more extreme. So much more predictable. And this summer, the extreme weather continues, given an added boost by a wildly strong El Nino.

The fires near Spokane, in the rest of Washington State and the West overall will burn indefinitely. Probably until the winter snows fly. 

LOUSY CONDITIONS/LOUSY PEOPLE

Spokane wasn't the only wildfire problem. As of Sunday, seventeen major fires encompassing 260,000 were burning across Washington. In Oregon, wildfires have burned more than 2 million acres, by far the most acreage on record. August and September tend to be the peak fire season in Oregon. 

The record for an entire fire season - set in 2024 - is about the same as what has burned so far this year in Oregon

On Saturday, the wind and the dry air around Spokane and other areas of the Northwest made fighting the fires impossible. They basically morauded unimpeded through forests, scrublands and finally neighborhoods, 

 "There is not a fire department in the United States that can handle a wind-driven event this size," said Assistant Spokane Fire Chief Lance Dahl. 

The spikes in wind over the next couple of months will likely lead to more homes burned this year. Maybe not hundreds at a time like in Spokane but enough to hurt many, many more families. 

The end result of this conflagration in Spokane was so many moments of normal daily life cruelly interrupted. Per the Spokane Spokesman-Review:

"Signs of children lingered on sidewalks where hopscotch was chalked. Stone stairs that once led to a wraparound porch led to nothing Smoldering foundations were still hot enough to melt shoes."

At one, the homeowner found nothing salvageable except for a muffin tin. At another house, it was complete devastation except for a koi pond. The fish in the pond somehow survived. At yet another destroyed home, a father instructed his son to take a brick from the house as a memento. He'd already done that. 

The most infuriating thing about the Spokane disaster is its apparent cause - arson. On Monday, Aaron Farinacci, 37, was arrested in Spokane for allegedly starting the Old Trails Fire, the largest and most destructive of three large fires in and around the city.  

As NBC News reports, the fire began at around 10 a.m. Saturday A witness told police the saw the man looking into the trees an was later seen crouching at the side of the road near some grass before he "stood up and looked very nervous" and walked away, said Spokane County Sheriff John Nowels .

Police detained Farinacci Saturday about a half mile from where the fire started. He had waterproof matches and a butane lighter on him. Authorities let Farinacci go, apparently mostly because the most important job at the moment was understandably evacuating people hastily. 

On Sunday, investigators determined the Old Trail Fire started exactly where the witness saw Farinacci crouching, leading to Monday's arrest. At last check he's being held on $1 million bond.

So far, I haven't seen a motive for the arson. 

Farinacci is (allegedly!) the worst but not only horrible idiot associated with the fires. We saw at least 26 incidents of people flying personal drones over the fires. That mean officials had to ground air support for safety reasons, hurting the firefighting efforts. 

By the way, flying drones over an emergency zone is a federal crime. 

In Oregon, the Jefferson County Sheriff's office are warning boaters on Lake Billy Chinook could be completely shut down for recreation if people don't stop interfering with firefighting efforts. Onlookers have repeatedly gotten too close to planes and helicopters as they scoop water from the lake to fight nearby fires, Central Oregon Daily News reported.  

Goons are watching the fires, for afar, too, coldly trying to make money off the blazes. These days you can bet on anything. 

Prediction marketshare allowing people to place bets on wildfires. 

According to OregonLive:

"In a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets, Sens. Ron Widen and Jeff Merkley joined lawmakers from other wildfire-stricken states in urging the agency to crack down on wildfire-related contracts. The group warned the markets could create financial incentives for arsons and criticized what they described as profiteering from disasters affecting vulnerable communities."

Reportedly, the 2025 Los Angeles fires prompted more than $1 million in wagers. Since then the betting market has grown exponentially. 

THE REST OF US

As is always the case with these big wildfires, it becomes everybody's problem. Thick smoke is billowing across the Pacific Northwest, set to create intense air pollution in cities like Portland, Eugene, Vancouver and Seattle.

 The smoke, combined with smoke from dozens of other western wildfires is drifting across the nation. Virtually everyone across the continental U.S. is either experiencing occasionally hazy skies and smoke, or will soon.

So, our lungs will once again suffer the consequences. 

As we've already noted, these huge wildland-urban interface wildfires have become disconcertingly common. Pretty much every year now. The droughts, the heat, the weird extremes brought on by climate change continue to take their toll.

Sadly, there's plenty of time for another Spokane this summer and fall.  There are so many towns and cities in California, Oregon, Washington and other western states that are sitting ducks for these kind of extreme wildfires 

Climate change won't stop anytime soon. It's another new normal in our abruptly hotter world. Some parts of the world are taking serious steps to combat climate change. The United States meanwhile, remains completely unserious about the problem.  

The money from the fossil fuel industry is too tempting for our so-called leaders. Too many Americans are willfully ignorant, as they prattle on about chemtrails and conspiracies and shrill references to an irrelevant hot spell in the 1930s. 

Nobody deserves to have their home burn down in a wildfire of course. Including those who say climate change is a hoax. But unfortunately, these firestorms will continue. Denial or not.  

Enjoy This Brief Sort Of Coolish Spell In Vermont This Morning; Tropical Week Ahead

Ever so briefly, the sky took on an autumnal look late
yesterday afternoon as a brief cooler, less humid
blast of air took over in Vermont. The rest of the
week will be very warm, with increasing humidity

 It turns out almost everybody got some rain in Vermont yesterday as a solid line of showers and thunderstorms crossed the state yesterday. That was followed by stiff brought stiff breezes made it actually feel cool outside last evening. 

Most places in Vermont were in the 50s this morning, with low 60s in the Champlain Valley. 

As we get through today, this sort of  coolish spell is over, for quite a long time. Let's get into it.

TODAY

The good news is the humidity stays fairly low. So as sunshine boosts temperatures into the 80s, it won't feel too terrible. The dew point, a rough measure of how sticky it feels out there, will hover near  60 degrees. That's not a totally refreshing level, but it will do. 

WEDNESDAY

A little hotter a little more humid. Dew points will be in the low 60s as afternoon temperatures climb well into the 80s. Sunshine will continue, so if you have the opportunity, it's a good beach day. We're into August, so there might not be too many such days left. Leap at this chance for fun in the sun.  Just be sure to OD on the sunscreen, please. 

THURSDAY-FRIDAY

Tropical humidity with a good chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. We'll have to watch on Thursday whether the instability might be robust enough for some strong storms. This will be a winner/loser type situation, as some areas will get drenched by torrential downpours while other areas get little or nothing. 

We might also have to watch out for isolated instances of flash flooding once again, since the storms might not move all that fast. We won't have anything widespread in the high water department, it's just something to watch. 

WEEKEND

Still muggy with a risk of storms. But the weather pattern will have rearranged itself slightly so that we'll be in a battleground between the oppressive Bermuda High and an autumn-ish storm up by Hudson Bay. That means little weather disturbances will fling themselves through New England in a fast flow within this battleground. 

Hard to say when we'll get some rain and storms and when it will be dry. It's also impossible to say how impressive or wimpy the rain an storms will be. For now, file next weekend under he "iffy" category.

NEXT WEEK

It seems like the storm up in Canada might slowly gain more influence over us here in the North Country. If that happens, we'll gradually lose the humidity but will keep the chances of showers going. Hard to say for sure because forecasts beyond five days are often not very accurate. But this attempt at a forecast is your hope we lose all that sticky, gross air that we're going to deal with. 

Expected Overnight Rain Mostly Misses Vermont, Unfortunately. Hit And Miss Stuff Today

Late season day lilies "Country Club" variety, blooms
in St. Albans, Vermont this morning. Most of the
predicted rain avoided us, but there are some chances
of rain today, but it will be hit and miss

  Streaks of heavier rain that swept through New York and New England unfortunately mostly missed Vermont. Which is too bad, because many gardens and crops could have used a good drink.  

A few places got decent rain. Rutland had 0.56 inches through 8 a.m.  Other areas were pathetic. Montpelier has 0.15 inches. Bennington, 0.13 inches, Burlington a mere 0.05 inches. 

Southern and eastern New England grabbed the moisture. Flash flood warnings were up in parts of Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire. 

So, will it rain today? Maybe, in some places. Let's get into it.

TODAY

We still have shots at getting some rain today, but it will be hit and miss. I'm hoping for more hits than miss. 

The moisture for the rain is certainly there. I'm sure you've noticed the continued humidity out there. A weak cold front is arriving today.  The front is sort of coming through in pieces, as is typical weak summer cold fronts.

That'll generate showers and storms that will cross the state from west to east today. In patches and bunches. There's a chance a couple of the storms could be fairly strong here and there. We'll end up with a patchwork of towns and cities that ended up getting a nice drink of water from the skies, while people in other towns watch the dark clouds bypass them. 

They'll be sweating as they do so as the humidity will bypass them, though the air will start to freshen up a little toward evening as the cold front staggers off into eastern New England.  The departure of that cold front means the showers and thunderstorms should be out of Vermont by late afternoon.

A trailing disturbance will probably set off some light showers this evening over northern Vermont, but they won't amount to much. 

TUESDAY

We'll have a brief break from the humidity so enjoy it, as it will be a delightful summer day squeezed in between days of mugginess. It'll be sunny, and highs will get into the 80s. So enjoy the lake, enjoy some hikes, or whatever else you're doing. 

WEDNESDAY

Actually, not bad. The humidity will creep up, but it won't get out of control. The sunshine will continue and highs will go well into the 80s. 

THURSDAY - SUNDAY

A strong Bermuda High off the East Coast still looks like it will dominate our weather. That'll pump the very warm, humid air our way. Even though it will be oppressive, temperatures will struggle to reach 90 degrees. High humidity will absorb the sun's heat, preventing extreme heat. But it won't matter, it'll be uncomfortable as hell.

We'll also have an ever-present chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best shot at seeing thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings. They will be hit and miss, so we'll see rainfall winners and losers, as usual. 

Little weather disturbances riding along the muggy southwest flow will provide bursts of more numerous showers and storms, but it's hard to tell this far in advance. 

It's summer. We get this kind of weather, Soon enough we'll be complaining about the cold. Embrace the humidity. 

July 2026 in Vermont Was Mostly Humid, And Stormy

Stormy skies over Lake Champlain in July. The month
of July was relatively hot and quite stormy across Vermont.

 Not that you need reminding, but July in Vermont this year was humid, stormy and kind of hot. 

As measured in Burlington, the average temperature was 73.7 which was 1.3 degrees above normal. That doesn't sound like July was that hot,  but it was the 15th hottest July out of the past 136 years of reliable records. 

I always have to throw in this caveat. Normal nowadays is not your grandfather's average Vermont weather. 

 "Normal" temperatures are based on the average of what we saw between 1990 and 2020, when climate change had already taken hold. 

If this July happened in the 1970s or something like that, July would have been about four degrees above average. Hot Julys have become the norm in Vermont. Six of the top 10 hottest Julys have hit since 2018. 

Overall, the rest of northern Vermont was warm and dry, though it was paradoxically a humid and stormy sort of dry. In other words, not all that much rain came out of those muggy and roiling skies.

Weather stations across northern Vermont reported a monthly average temperature of a little more than a degree above normal.

Burlington had 3.18 inches of rain, which was nearly an inch below average. That turned out to be the 61st driest July out of the past 144 years of reliable records. Most of the northern two thirds of the state were dry, too. Given the fact that showers and storms tend to make summer rainfall highly variable, there were pockets of above normal precipitation. 

Montpelier's rainfall was 4.74 inches of rain in July, which was about a half inch above normal, But 2.45 inches of that came in one ferocious thunderstorm on July 9,

When you got toward southwestern Vermont, it was a little cooler than the modern average, and on the wet side. Bennington's average July temperature was almost a degree cooler than normal, Bennington also had 6.45 inches of rain, which was 1.8 inches above normal,

Much like in Montpelier, Bennington's wet month was due to one storm. They had 3.75 inches of rain on July 28-30, as they were on the edge of that epic storm that caused extreme flooding in New York's Hudson Valley. 

That same storm dumped over five inches of rain on some towns in the far southern Green Mountains. 

STORMY MONTH

The first half of the month was especially stormy. 

July got off to a literal bang on the first day of the month. Hot, oppressively humid weather help light up the sky with waves of severe thunderstorms. The worst of the storms sprung up abruptly in the Champlain Valley, leaving a trail of damage across northern and central Vermont into New Hampshire. 

An area around Underhill, Westford, Essex and Cambridge suffered especially severe damage.  Another wave of storms later that night filled the sky with continuous lightning

On July 9 storms blasted across northern Vermont, especially up in the Northeast Kingdom, nailing areas around Burke Mountain with intense microbursts. Flash flooding hit the area around Barre, but luckily, the flooding was much less severe that the past three Julys. 

Vermont braced for a severe storm and oddly strong tornado threat on July 14 into the early morning hours of July 15. Wildfire smoke squelched many would-be storms, so the problem wasn't as widespread as feared. 

However, supercell thunderstorms spewing microbursts caused lots of damage in a stripe northwest to southeast through Rutland and Windsor counties. 

On July 16, showers and storms developed along a weak southward moving cold front. The storms looked lame on radar, but the gust front packed quite a punch. More trees fell across northern Vermont.

Also, wildfire smoke made an appearance in Vermont, as I alluded to above. The worse of it was at mid-month when some big fires flared up in Ontario and northern Minnesota. Those fires tapered off later in the final weeks of July, so the smoke thinned, too. Just some haze from blazes in the western United States. 

Looking ahead to August, NOAA is predicting a hot month for most of the nation. However, the forecast gives equal chances of above or below normal temperatures in an area from the Great Lakes through the Northeast, including Vermont. 

NOAA is leaning ever so slightly on the wet side, so that's essentially a toss-up, too 

Flood Concerns Stay Off To Vermont's West As We Stay Warm. Humid. Wet Early Monday

Later summer garden in St. Albans, Vermont this 
morning. The gardens should get a decent drink of
water tonight and tomorrow from a batch of 
relatively heavy showers in the forecast

As expected, we're in a warm, humid regime here in Vermont with little sign of relief on the way. 

Forecasts have settled on the heaviest rain today and tonight in western and northern New York and in Ontario. There, flood watches are in effect. 

For Vermont, we should eke out a decent day, with clouds and sun, and a chance of a late day shower or garden-variety thunderstorm, especially northwest. Many of us will stay dry. Highs should reach the 80s this afternoon, and you'll continue to feel that humidity build. 

TONIGHT/MONDAY

Most of the rain Vermont gets will hold off until later tonight and the first half of Monday. This will more of a Goldilocks rainfall - heavy enough to give gardens and crops a good drink, light enough to prevent any flooding. 

NOAA has a slight risk of flash floods level two out of four, in the extreme northern 'Adirondacks and along New York's Canadian border. They've put Vermont in a marginal risk, level one out of four for flash floods in case a local downpour causes trouble. But that risk really looks pretty low.

We'll see some downpours and embedded rumbles of thunder within this but nothing particularly scary. There is a marginal - level one out of five risk of severe storms in the southeastern two thirds of Vermont, and much of the rest of New England, but this won't be a widespread outbreak of bad weather. 

The rain and downpours will tend to taper off as we go through the afternoon and evening. A little sun might come out as well.

TUESDAY

The pick of the week if you have outdoor plans. The humidity should temporarily dip to somewhat comfortable levels, with dew points in the low 60s. That's considered just slightly sticky but not oppressive. Sunshine should boost temperatures into the 80s.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY

We have a long spell of warm, humid air with a daily risk of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms every day. We'll be sandwiched between a strong Bermuda High off the East Coast and a dip in the jet stream well to our west.  So, little disturbances in that humid southwesterly flow of air will keep those chances of thunderstorms going.

We're into August now, so at least in some years, the change in seasons begins to take the edge out of the constant humid weather. There are signs that we could have a sort of autumnal spell by mid-month. No promises, but there's a chance. 

Flood Threat In Vermont Diminishes For Next Storm, But Does Not Entirely Disappear.

More rain on the way, but it doesn't look like enough
to cause more flooding. Most places should see an
inch or less Sunday night and Monday, though a 
couple places could see locally higher amounts. 

Weather forecasters are a little more relaxed about the chances of flooding with the Sunday night and Monday.  

We're still going to get a bunch of rain Sunday night and Monday. And we hope you like humid weather because we have plenty of it coming up. But overall, we're in the midst of a decent summer weekend. We've been lucky with these weekends. 

REST OF TODAY

A good summer day is underway once again. We've had a lot of Saturdays like this. The sun will be out most of the time. As far as rain goes, there's the slightest of chances of an isolated showers over the mountains, but that's it. 

Highs will top out in the mid-80s for most of us. It is kind of humid out there, but it won't be as oppressive as it could be. 

SUNDAY

We should make it through most of the day without rain or thunderstorms. Especially if you're in the southeastern half of Vermont. A slow moving "cold front" will be coming approaching grudgingly fro the west. A have "cold front" in quotations because it won't really drop our temperatures and the drop in humidity when it eventually comes through will be barely noticeable, 

It will get close enough to set off some scattered showers and non-severe storms late in the afternoon north and west, but not everyone will get wet. It'll be in the 80s again, and you'll notice the humidity getting worse. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

This is when the bulk of the rain and downpours come through.  There had been some concerns that a sluggish, weak but very wet storm would stall nearby, giving parts of our area another drenching and flood, like what happened in New York's Hudson Valley earlier this week, 

Instead, it looks like things will slowly progress through, so that - fingers crossed - it doesn't rain hard enough or long enough to set off any flooding. There's still a chance some locally heavy downpours cause problems, but overall, the chance of anything major look low, 

The rain should be more good than bad.  Some places, especially in the Northeast Kingdom didn't receive all that much rain this past week. As it stands now, it looks like almost everybody in Vermont should receive a decent half inch to an inch, with maybe locally higher amounts. 

I supposed there's a slight chance the forecast could once again flip flop back to a rainier, somewhat more dangerous scenario. So far, I don't see that, but of course, we'll update as necessary.

REST OF NEXT WEEK

The dog days of summer I've been talking about will continue. The weather set up with an offshore Bermuda high means very warm and humid air will keep coming at us. Tuesday will be the nicest day with a slight dip in the humidity and low to no rain chances.

The rest of the week will be partly cloudy, humid, with an ever-present chance of showers and storms. It's hard at this point to pick out which day will be the rainiest. It depends on the location of any little disturbances in that muggy flow of air. 

The clouds and showers should keep us under 90 degrees (with possibly one or two odd exceptions) But the humidity will more than make up for the lack of super hot air. Um, enjoy, I guess?  

Dog Days Of Summer Have Arrived In Vermont, Downpours Thrown In Sunday/Monday Too

A bumblebee enjoys a rose bloom this morning in 
St. Albans, Vermont amid our spell of humid air. Sticky
days will continue for at least a week along with
risks of showers and storms. 

It hasn't exactly been hot recently, but the air has felt rather sticky, here in Vermont and that state of affairs will continue for quite awhile. 

It's the dog days of summer, the nearly annual spell in which we're stuck in a long period of humid, warm air, with occasional spikes to a hot day or two mixed with rainy, thundery periods as well.

We're going to sweat it out in moderately warm air, and humidity that's moderately high until Sunday, when it will get even worse.Most of us will stay rain-fee under Sunday, when the weather forecast begins to turn iffy. Let's get into the details:   

TODAY

Partly sunny with that humidity is the bottom line.  Highs should get into the low 80s.

 noticed a couple showers early today in Addison and Rutland counties. That hints at enough instability in the air to trigger maybe an isolated shower or storm today mostly over the mountains. The vast majority of us will stay dry. though, and whatever does form shouldn't be scary. Just garden variety stuff.  

SATURDAY

Rinse and repeat. But it will be just a bit warmer as temperatures rise well into the 80s. 

SUNDAY

Here's where it gets questionable. South winds, which you'll especially notice in the Champlain Valley, will increase ahead of the next weather system. Those wind  will pump even more humid air our way, so Sunday will feel even more oppressive.

As it stands now, it looks like some showers and storms could develop in the afternoon and evening, especially in the northwestern half of the state. We still have questions on the timing and intensity of this thing, and those questions deepen Sunday night and Monday

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

It seems like the incoming front and weather disturbance will want to slow down near New England. We're pretty sure we'll see some heavy downpours around, but we don't know how long they'll last or just how heavy they'll be in any particular spot. 

The computer models have been windshield wipering between an ominous forecast of heavy rain lingering over the region for a long time, or downpours staying long enough to give us a harmless, beneficial soaking without a real risk of flooding. 

This morning's runs of computer forecast don't look all that ominous, but there's still a risk of locally heavy rain. And other model runs today might paint yet a different picture. 

In this morning's forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said they're hoping for  better, more concise guidance tomorrow on what might happen with this system. By then, well have better upper air sampling of how things are shaping. So stay tuned.  

BEYOND MONDAY

Whatever this system doesn't, it won't be one of those nice summer cold fronts that flush out the humidity for a few days. Instead it will stay warm, and probably get warmer. Temperatures might hold in the 70s amid steamy air Monday if there's a lot of clouds and rain. 

If we're lucky, it could briefly turn slightly less humid next Tuesday, but building warmth and humidity quickly return. It looks like a long stretch of very warm, humid weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week. 

MAGA Denial Continues As Wildfires, Boosted By Climate Change, Ravage Northern Hemisphere

Horses flee a wildfire in Biscarrosse, France
recently. There was no time to evacuate them,
so the horses released so they could run away
on their own. Followup stories reported 
the horses were later found and retuirned
to their owners. 

While MAGA was complaining this month about wildfire smoke wafting across the border into the United States, blazes were breaking out all over the Northern Hemisphere in a relentless, climate changed summer. 

MAGA has been complaining about the wrong thing, obviously. Climate change, the problem that most in the MAGA world deny, is driving much of this fire trouble. 

And, while MAGA complains about Canada supposedly not managing its forests and driving smoke south across the border, the Trump administration has cut forest management funds and jobs in the United States.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Wildfires are a risk every summer and fall, with or without climate change. These days, many of the blazes are turbocharged by climate change. 

The warmer world is helping make fires worse. As I noted in a previous blog, Canada and other far northern areas area especially susceptible to climate change. 

The snow melts earlier in the spring than it once did, leaving more time for the vast boreal forests to dry out. Summertime heat waves up north often set record highs. Hot, dry weather dries things out further. 

When weather disturbance finally grace the Great, formerly White North, the heat helps increase atmospheric instability. So you get lightning strikes. That set new fires amid a landscape that doesn't receive adequate wetting from the scattered thunderstorms. 

Europe is burning, too. It's the world's fastest warming continent, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. 

The extra hot summers Europe has seen in recent summers are certainly killing thousands of people across the continents. That's the biggest problem. But that hot weather is also drying out the continent's woodlands, forests and scrublands, leading to enormous fires, some of which are burning as I write this. 

Here in the United States, the western half of the nation endured a record hot, dry winter and early spring. According to World Weather Attribution, the heat, particularly the hot temperatures in March, would have been virtually impossible without climate change. 

That heat early this year set the stage for the deadly wildfires in places like Utah and Colorado in the late spring and early summer.  A hot, dry spring and summer also contributed to serious wildfires in northern Minnesota. 

The Minnesota fires might have been made more intense because of our MAGA president. As the Washington Post reports:

"Last year, the Trump administration delayed a $10 million grant that was supposed to help Minnesota thin out about 4,000 acres of dense, dry forest at high risk of burning. Most of that work ever got started, according to five people familiar with the situation and a document reviewed by the Washington Post. And now, some of those areas are on fire."

The project would have removed decades of dead trees and undergrowth, creating breaks that would stop advancing fires. The grant would have paid for fire prevention efforts along a key 36-mile gravel road.  One of the two dozen lightning-sparked fires burning since the beginning of the month jumped the road and threatened houses. 

Remember, Trump and MAGA complained that recent big fires were so destructive and smoky in California and Canada because they didn't "rake their forests" or whatever he was trying to say. 

So, Trump & Co. canceled money that would have literally raked Minnesota forests. 

Even worse, many in the West and elsewhere fear that the 6,000 permanent U.S. Forest Service staff lost to layoffs, buyouts and early retirements as the Trump people keep decimating critical government work. The Trumpsters also wants to move the agenda headquarters to Utah and consolidate or close dozens of research centers and regional offices. 

Dave Upthegrove, Washington state's elected public lands commissioner told NPR: "These layoffs at the federal level are presenting risk to our ability respond to major wildfires."

U.S. Forest Service said in June that they have reached or exceeded seasonal hiring goals for woodland firefighting this summer. 

We shall see. It might be hard to tell whether firefighting capability this summer is as robust as it could be, amid the noise of all the wildfires out there. In the United States and elsewhere. 

THE FIRES

As of this past Saturday, 932 wildfires were still burning on Canada.  Those fires were burning in a  huge band from Yukon and the Northwest Territories and through northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan  into most of Ontario and central Quebec. More recently, there's also been a burst of new fires in southern British Columbia. 

The British Columbian fires are extending into the new United States fire hot spot in Washington and Oregon.  

In Washington, the Kaiser Mountain Fire not far north of the Grand Coulee Dam has covered more than 100,000 acres. That one is likely the largest of dozens of fires burning in the state. 

Down in Oregon, 1,200 wildfires were burning on Oregon. Crews were arriving in Oregon fro as far away as New Zealand and Australia to help. 

In Colorado and Utah, monsoon rains have tamped down, but not eliminated the fires. A turn toward drier weather will almost immediately help the wildfires power up again. The monsoon downpours hit areas where wildfires stripped the landscape of trees and vegetation that held the soil together. The fires also cooked the soil, so water runs off instead of soaking in.

These factors have already created huge flash floods and debris flow. One debris flow caused widespread damage in and below Cottonwood Canyon, where a fire burned through earlier this summer. 

Europe

As of Saturday, at least 250,000 people had been evacuated in France and Spain because of the fires. That includes 70,000 people evacuated in central Spain. That was said to be the largest European evacuation since World War II. At least one death was reported in Manises, Spain. 

The fire around Madrid was described as the worst in that city's history. 

The city of Bordeaux, France appeared to be in serious trouble.   The wildfire was described as a "firestorm"  last Friday but had later calmed down somewhat Saturday. Still, the Associated Press description of the wildfire fight sounds like a war battle:

"....fire crews and authorities were digging trenches, using retardants and taking other blaze-blocking steps. French Interior Minister Laurent Nunex said,  predicting a 'long and very difficult' battle."

The final stage of the Tour de France was shortened as thick smoke hit the region, CNN reports. 

Temperatures in western Europe are forecast to climb again this week, heightening the risk of new fires, and possibly making existing fires worse. 

During mid-July a wildfire swept through a section of southern Norway, destroying more than 100 homes. 

Finally, in what should be damp Edinburgh, Scotland, the second wildfire in three months ravaged Arthur's Seat, a landmark extinct volcano that offers sweeping views of the city. The fire came somewhat close to housing for students at Edinburgh University, but no damage to those structures was reported.