Isaias Rain To Remain Mostly In Southern Vermont, But North Could Get Decent Rain Monday Night/Tuesday

A gorgeous autumn Saturday yesterday as seen from atop
Fairfield Hill in St. Albans, Vermont. 

After a stunningly gorgeous Saturday in Vermont, high clouds have covered the sky. 

Those high clouds started coming in during the day yesterday, but they weren't thick enough to interfere with a bright, crisp October day.  Classic Vermont. Even the air almost smelled like pumpkin spice. So what happens next? Let's get into it: 

TODAY

The high clouds, of course, are coming from the remains of Hurricane Isaias, which, as we know, slammed into the Florida Panhandle Friday evening. 

Despite the clouds, temperatures should reach the low 60s today, which is pretty close to average. 

The clouds will lower and thicken through the day, so that it'll be pretty overcast by this afternoon. Rain will move into southern Vermont this afternoon and slowly works its way north. That rain, however, will be battling dry air to the north. 

All this means that northern areas now look like they'll see practically nothing out of this. Forecasts that were issued this morning don't bring much rain to the north tonight at all. Some spots along the Canadian border might remain completely dry. 

For now, the National Weather Service is going for about three quarters of an inch near the Massachusetts border. Amounts quickly diminish to around a third on an inch around Rutland and White River Junction, then  less than a tenth of an inch in Burlington and St. Johnsbury. 

The rainfall forecast is subject to change. Given the forecast trends, I wouldn't be surprised if Vermont receives even less rain than forecast. 

The rain should end by early morning. 

If you don't get much needed rain tonight, we still have a shot at more rain. Including in the north. 

MONDAY

We'll be between weather systems tomorrow. That means mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s. Most of the day will ve dry. We could see some very early morning showers. And more rain might start to break out in the north late in the day.  

TUESDAY

The next storm comes through Monday night through Tuesday. It's not a huge weather system, but it's getting an assist from former Tropical Storm Rachael. That storm hit far northwest Mexico late yesterday. It's causing coastal destruction in southern California and heavy rain/flooding in the Desert Southwest, and on into the southern Rocky Mountains. 

Some of that moisture is getting quickly pulled into our little storm system for Monday night and Tuesday. 

If the forecast holds northern Vermont, which really needs the rain, could receive a decent half inch to an inch of rain out of this.  Somewhat less rain will fall in the south, but at least they'll get a little. 

WEDNESDAY

Like most autumn storms, this one will have a cold front. But the front won't have a ton of cold air behind it.  We'll have the kind of day that's typical for the day after cold front in Vermont. We'll have lots of clouds, especially north. 

There could be some light showers, with temperatures in the 50s. Northwest winds will make it feel chillier. It doesn't look like it will be nippy enough for snow on the mountain summits. So no taste of a winter wonderland quite yet. 

LATE WEEK

At this point, Thursday looks like a nice fall day, probably much like yesterday did.  Friday and the weekend looks like it might bring us our annual foliage stripper storm - wind and rain that will introduce much of Vermont to stick season.  However, pretty foliage will continue in and near the Champlain Valley and warmer southern valleys even after the storm. 

That said, some extended forecasts give us a shot at some of the coldest mid-October weather we've seen in years. Stay tuned on that! 

 

Hurricane Isaias Trashed Florida Panhandle, Wind, Storm Surge Damage Widespread

Hurricane Isaias ripping off the roof of 
a hotel Saturday evening. 

People in the Florida Panhandle and in Alabama have started picking up the mess left by Hurricane Isaias. 

So far, at least four people have been reported dead in the storm. 

The hurricane came ashore around Destin, Florida at around 8 p.m. with top winds of 105 mph. As of this morning, streets were littered with debris, roofing material, fallen trees and wires. Many of those streets were also flooded.. 

Winds gusted to 118 mph in Jay, Florida, 117 mph at Oriole Beach, Florida and 116 mph in Santa Rosa Sound and 114 mph in Milton, Florida

Those gusts were caused by a sting jet, which occurred when drier air ran into an abrupt western edge of the hurricane. That dry air caused rapidly sinking evaporated cool air to rush downward from atop the storm down onto these communities.  

The storm sure was about five feet, a little short of the six to nine feet forecasters had anticipated. That's good news for sure. Isaias arrived a couple hours before high tide, which helped minimize the surge. 

Still, storm surges caused damage in Destin, Fort Walton Beach and other seaside communities. 

It could have all been even worse. Strong upper level winds - thanks El Nino - ripped apart the core of Isaias just as it neared the shoreline. This prevented the hurricane from intensifying more before reaching Florida and Alabama. 

As of early Saturday nearly 900,000 customers in Florida and Alabama had no electricity. 

Isaias was the first Atlantic hurricane of the season. It has been more than 100 years since the Atlantic got its first hurricane this late in the season. Strong upper level winds caused by El Nino has torn apart and destroyed tropical storms that have tried to form so far this year. 

The remnants of Isaias were moving into the Appalachian Mountains Sunday afternoon. At least one tornado touched down in South Carolina, and the area was under threat for more twisters. 

Gusty winds and flood watches continued in parts of the Southeast, too.

Here in Vermont, rainfall from the remnants of Isaias will range from maybe three quarters of an inch in far southern parts of the state to less than a tenth an inch near the Canadian border. In between, central Vermont should see a quarter to a half inch, give or take. At least that's what forecasts issued Sunday afternoon suggest. 

The rain should come through Sunday night.  

A Gorgeous Vermont Saturday, Isais Clouds Arrive Sunday; Some Rain Sunday Night/Monday

Dark clouds and late afternoon sun lights up trees with
yellow leaves Friday in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Today dawned clear and chilly in Vermont, heralding a classic fall day. As we've long expected, we'll enjoy a gorgeous Vermont landscape, with tourists crawling everywhere. 

Stay off the roads in tourist towns if you don't want to sit in traffic. If you want to leaf peep, take the back roads.

Under the sunshine, temperatures will rise only into the 50s, just a bit cooler than average. Frost will whiten lawns in much of the state by tomorrow morning. 

Some high clouds from former Hurricane Isaias were already making it into southern Vermont this morning. They'll head north, so we'll see some pretty high clouds in the blue sky today. 

Enjoy the day. Here's an update at what's coming up next.

SUNDAY

We'll see increasing cloudiness as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias approach. Isaias roared ashore near Dentin, Florida, with top winds of 105 mph. There's lots of damage in that area, as you'd imagine. 

By the time what was Isaias approaches the Northeast, it will just be a weak, wet storm. Rain will roll into Vermont Sunday night.

Since it still looks like it's going by to our south, we'll have a range of rainfall amounts. For now, continues to look like we'll have a half inch to an inch of rain south, a quarter to a half inch rain central and as little as a few hundredth of an inch near the Canadian border. 

The computer models are still disagreeing on exactly how much rain will fall. Some models give less rain, some a little more. We'll look forward to updates. But whatever happens, it won't be a huge storm. Certainly no flood risk.  Southern Vermont will get some beneficial rain, northern Vermont will get dampened a little, which is better than nothing.

MONDAY 

Many of us will have they day off, and it will be an OK day. A few lingering showers might drop a few raindrops early in the day.  Overall, Monday will stay mostly cloudy and mild, with highs in the 60s. 

NEXT WEEK

The weather pattern continues to favor dry weather, but tropical moisture sometimes benefits us. One cold front boosted by the remnants of a Pacific hurricane gave us some extra rain. Former Hurricane Isaias will give us at least a little rain tomorrow. 

And a new cold front will come in Tuesday. It won't be that impressive, but it will get a little moisture boost from Tropical Storm Rachel, which this weekend is causing tidal surges and inland flooding in southern California. 

Rainfall amounts again will probably only amount to a quarter inch or so, give or take. Not much, but more than we would receive without Rachel. 

Then, the rest of the week will be dry, with somewhat cooler than average weather. 

Isaias About To Slam Far Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama

Hurricane Isaias approaching the far western Florida
panhandle last Friday afternoon. 

 The Gulf Coast, especially around the western Florida panhandle was bracing for Hurricane Isaias this evening. 

As of 5 p.m., the hurricane was starting to weaken, as expected. Strong upper level winds from the southwest are beginning to stretch the hurricane apart. 

Because of this, the most intense part of the storm will be the northern eye wall, just before the center of the storm comes ashore near Pensacola, Florida around 8 pm. 

Top winds were still at 115 mph at 5 p.m. today.  Although Isaias will continue to slowly weaken as it approaches shore in the next few hours. 

But it won't have time to fall apart. The National Hurricane Center says it will be an unusual gusty hurricane when it hits. 

Storm surges could reach nine feet, so they will see a lot of damage along parts of the Gulf Coast

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 mph from the center, so it won't be a  huge area hit by the worst winds. 

Flood watches were in effect through large swaths of the Southeast. Tornadoes are also a good possibility in the Southeast, too. 

As the storm approached, roads last night like Interstate 10 in southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle were gridlocked as people fled the then-strengthening hurricane. Video showed people sitting for hours at a standstill as car crashes blocked I-10 westbound in Baldwin County, Alabama. 

By evening, it was already stormy in the western Florida Panhandle. Live video from Navarre Beach, Florida at 5:45 p.m. showed a burgeoning storm surge and increasing winds. 

Isaias will spread strong winds all the way north through Tennessees and western North Carolina overnight and part of Sunday.

The remnants of Isaias will be in the central Appalachians during the day Sunday. For us in Vermont, it will throw rain our way.  It looks like southern Vermont could get a half inch of rain, give or take, with very little in the far north. 

 

Rain Continues To Mostly Avoid Vermont; Only Light Rain From Isaias

The clouds over St. Albans, Vermont looked dramatic at
times, but despite a few scattered showers, it was a 
rather nice day - partly sunny and mild. The weather
in Vermont will be variable over the next few days, 
but we won't have a huge amount of rain. 

Thursday turned out to be a beautiful day in Vermont, despite a few scattered showers.  We had partly sunny skies above, beautiful fallen leaves underfoot and an orange and yellow landscape in between.

We need the rain, but the nice weather is easy to take. Especially this time of  year.  

For now, we'll dodge raindrops from time to time, but for most of the next week or so, we'll have nice fall weather. We'll  just have to deal with temperatures bouncing up and down, like it so often does in Vermont. 

Here are the details:

TODAY

It'll be cooler than yesterday, but nothing that wild for October. We'll see more convective showers here and there, but they won't amount to much. Many of us will see no rain at all, or at most sprinkles. Isolated spots could have some graupel or pea-size hail.  It's easy to produce that this time of year as it's getting cooler. 

Highs will be in the 50s, so get that fleece out. 

As temperatures fall tonight, a few flurries might blow through the mountain summits. Cold clouds could ice up the stunted trees atop the tallest mountains. It might be the closest we come this year to "snoliage" - white on the mountain tops, pretty colorful trees lower down. 

SATURDAY

If there is any "snoliage," Saturday will be a great day to see it. Sunny and crisp, with highs in the 50s again. The tourists will be swarming Vermont, so if you want to go leaf peeping, find some back roads. There's plenty of 'em. 

SUNDAY

We'll eke out another nice day. We'll have some increasing clouds, and increasing south winds. It'll be a little warmer with highs in the 60s. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

Having trashed the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama Friday night, the remnants of Isaias will arrive in the Northeast. By then, Isaias will be a faint shadow of its former ferocious self.  Since it will pass well south of Vermont. 

It will probably spread some light rain across Vermont Sunday night and early Monday.  Early guesses suggest modest amounts of rain. Early guesses give a mediocre 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain through most of Vermont; less than a quarter inch of rain north of Route 2 and less than a tenth of an inch near the Canadian border.

NEXT WEEK

Another cold front will spread some more showers across Vermont on Tuesday. Again, it won't be a huge storm. After a couple cool, pleasant days, another round of showers could come through Friday. No extremes are on the horizon.  El Nino is not making the weather scary just yet, at least not here in Vermont. 

Strengthening Isaias Menacing Gulf Coast; Remnants Still Largely Missing Vermont, Tropical Storm Rachel To Harass SCal

Hurricane Isaias late this afternoon in the central Gulf
of Mexico. High upper winds are pulling clouds from
the storm's center, but its core is maintaining
itself and strengthening.

Hurricane Isaias continued to strengthen this afternoon in the central Gulf of Mexico and by late afternoon, sustained winds had increased to 100 mph.  That makes it a pretty strong Category 2 hurricane. 

It might get stronger yet.  

The hurricane has made its expected turn to the northeast. It will then turn directly north, aiming at the extreme western Florida panhandle. Or maybe in Alabama, at Dauphin Island and Mobile. 

Meteorologists are still struggling with how strong Isaias will get, when it will eventually start to weaken, and how strong it will be when it crosses the coastline. 

Thank goodness for El Nino. That phenomenon has already made potential hurricanes this year mere tropical storms, thanks to strong upper level winds. 

Pretty strong winds area already blowing atop Isaias. But it looks like it will continue to strengthen overnight. Isaias will pass over the warmest water in the Gulf, which should fuel its power despite the high altitude winds trying to tear it apart.

By tomorrow, the National Hurricane Center says the upper level wins will get even stronger. Which means Isaias will probably begin to weaken some as it approaches the coast. Still, as the NHC says. "Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfill, and strong gusty winds are expected well inland after the center crosses the coast."

Evacuation orders are in effect for Dauphin Island in Alabama, and in Okaloosa and Escambia counties in Florida. 

Flood watches are in effect in large parts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. 

Vermont Effects

It still looks like the remnants of Isaias will throw some rain at Vermont toward Sunday. It still looks like it'll be a glancing blow. Computer models are disagreeing how much rain will make it into Vermont, so we'll have to stay tuned. It won't be a super heavy rainfall, though.  

WEST COAST RACHEL

 Tropical Storm Rachel, well southwest of California today, will weaken as it heads toward Baja California or far southern California by Saturday.  Normally a tropical storm as far offshore as Rachel.  was Thursday will have dissipated by the time it reaches the coast. The water off the coast is usually very cool, which kills hurricanes. 

But the water temperature offshore from Baja California and California is much warmer than normal, so Rachel won't weaken as quickly as you'd expect, It could still be a weak tropical storm by the time it nears the extreme southern end of California. 

Southern California, along with most of Arizona, Utah and southern Nevada could see some significant flash flooding from Rachel or its remnants over the weekend. 

The southern California coast is also under threat from rough surf and some minor coastal flooding. 

At least Rachel will end a record heat wave in the Desert Southwest. Los Angeles had three consecutive days over 100 degrees between Saturday and Monday. By next week, highs in L.A will only be in the low 70s.. 

Scattered Showers In Vermont Could Contain Rumbles Of Thunder; Isaias Rain Getting More Iffy

Foliage isn't peak in the Champlain Valley yet, but
it's peak elsewhere in Vermont. Best day to enjoy
the views will be Saturday. 

A little after midnight here in St. Albans, Vermont, I heard a rumble of thunder. 

That proves how dynamic the weather system is that's going through. Unfortunately, the fronts and such with this system are also moisture-starved, so don't count on much rain. Which we need. 

The rest of the day is more of the same. Scattered showers, maybe another rumble of thunder. A couple places might even see a few tiny hailstones. 

But many of us will get no rain at all, or just sprinkles. The best chance of rain is in the northern mountains. It looks like everyone will get less than a tenth of an inch of rain, with maybe a little more than that in the Green Mountains north of Mount Mansfield. 

At least it will be pretty mild, with highs in the low to mid 60s.  

The atmosphere's fast flow from the west-northwest ensures that we'll have lots of changes in the weather, but no extreme changes.  Which means we won't get a lot of rain, either. But at least some showers are in the cards. 

Let's get into what's going on for the next few days, as we always do.

FRIDAY

You know how I just said that things will change pretty fast? Well here we go. Sure, we'll have scattered showers like we did today, mostly during the first half of the day.  But no thunder. And it will feel much colder than today. 

Again, some places, especially south, could get nothing, or sprinkles. The north will be cloudier with up to a tenth of an inch of rain in a couple spots. And, the summits of the northern Green Mountains will probably have a  few snow showers. 

Tis the season. It snowed a little atop Mount Mansfield Monday and Tuesday. They'll have a little more Friday morning. Start digging your skis and snowboards out. That season is coming. Not yet, but we're getting there. 

Anyway the broader valleys will have some sun mixed with the clouds, so we'll manage to get into the 50s for highs, with some 40s in the Northeast Kingdom.

Another frost and freeze is likely Friday night, including in the Champlain Valley.  

SATURDAY

We're in for another perfect peak foliage leaf peeping weekend day, seemingly custom ordered once again by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing.

It'll be sunny and crisp, with highs in the 50s. Maybe near 60 in the lower Connecticut River valley. 

The gorgeous trees and the gorgeous weather might be too much of a good thing in some towns. Stowe and Woodstock, and a few other tourist towns will be absolute zoos.  And if you're looking or a hotel room anywhere in Vermont Saturday night, good luck!

SUNDAY

Another day with big changes. It'll be mostly cloudy, and much warmer. The high pressure system that we believe will give us a gorgeous Saturday will be off the coast, and milder air will be pushing north toward us. 

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will approach us, too. The promise of needed rain will come with it. But remember that west-northwest flow I talked about? It looks like it will shunt the best moisture with Isaias off to our south. 

There's still questions about how far north Isaias's rain will come. Early guesses are there could be some sort of decent rains in southern Vermont, but lighter rain up north. The amount of rain we'll ultimately see is still in doubt. Stay tuned for updates. 

It'll be warm, with highs getting up to near 70 degrees.

MONDAY

Columbus Day will also be generally cloudy and warm, with highs up in the 60s. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

More big changes, as it looks like it will turn much colder, probably colder than tomorrow will be. We're on a downhill race toward winter. More showers will accompany the cold front. There could also be more mountain snow showers as temperatures drop.

A Storm Named Isaias Could Help With Drought For 2nd Time In Six Years

Satellite view this afternoon of Tropical Storm 
Isaias gaining strength in the Gulf of Mexico

 On August 4, 2020, Tropical Storm Isaias went directly over Vermont, dumping heavy rain that alleviated a developing drought that hot summer. 

Another storm named Isaias now has a chance at giving Vermont some beneficial rain. But it's still a big if as to whether we actually get a lot of rain from the storm. 

Tropical Storm Isaias was strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. It's not the same storm as the one six years ago, of course. 

The National Hurricane Center recycles tropical storm and hurricane names every sixth year. They only retire hurricane names if they caused extreme damage. Think Helene, Dorian, Ike and Ian. 

The NHC didn't retire the Isaias name, even though the 2020 version of it caused about $5 billion in damage up and down the East Coast, and in the Bahamas. 

So we have the new Isaias. 

Until now, tropical storms this year have been ripped apart quickly by strong upper level winds this year before they could develop. Thank El Nino for that. 

However, Isaias found a sweet spot in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico without much in the way of those strong upper level winds. The water temperatures there is near record hot, so there's a lot of fuel for this thing.  

By late this afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaias had top winds of 65 mph, up from 40 mph this morning.  It should rapid strengthen to a hurricane - the first one of the season.   

As it heads north, it'll start to weaken as those El Nino upper level winds behind to chew away at Isaias's strength. By Friday evening, the storm should come ashore somewhere around Mobile, Alabama or the far western end of the Florida Panhandle.

After coming ashore, Isaias will rapidly fall apart, as all hurricanes after making landfall. 

Eventually, the remnants of Isaias will probably move through the central Appalachians and onto into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast Coast. 

The question is, how far north will the Isaias remnants go? Unlike the 2020 version, we know there won't be a huge amount of rain. But if the path of that remnant storm is just right, at least parts of Vermont could get a highly welcome inch or two of rain. 

If  2026 Isaias affects Vermont, it won't have much wind with it.  After all, this week's Isaias will have long since stopped being a tropical storm. 

We have a shot at moderate amounts of rain. Maybe. 

The 2020 Isaias was still a tropical storm on the evening of August 4. At 8 p.m. that day, we had the rare experience of a tropical storm centered in Vermont - precisely five miles north-northwest of Rutland. 

The Isaias of six years ago cut power to 19,000 homes and businesses.  A couple tornado warnings were issued in far southern Vermont, but no twisters are known to have touched down.

Rainfall totals included figures like 3.42 inches in Randolph and 3.01 in Waitsfield. Burlington had 2.5 inches of rain.  Since conditions were so dry before the storm, Vermont suffered no flooding. 

If - and that's a big if - the 2026 Isaias affects Vermont, it won't be as dramatic as the storm six years ago.  

Frost, Freeze In Most Of Vermont This Morning, A Potentially Showery Thursday Then Classic Fall Weather

Most places in Vermont had frost and freezes early
this morning. A bit of a warmup today, then 
showers tomorrow.

Unless you live close to Lake Champlain, your garden is probably dead now. Or at least in really rough shape. 

As expected,  this was the coldest morning so far this autumn.  A freeze hit most of the state except the Champlain Valley. Montpelier and Springfield got to at least 29 degrees. Morrisville was at 27 degrees early today. Rutland hit 31 degrees. 

Also, as expected, south winds developed just before dawn in the Champlain Valley, which rescued some outdoors flowers and vegetables from an icy fate.

The temperature reached 34 degrees at around 4 a.m., as measured at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. That's cold enough for frost, but you probably didn't see icy glaze on the lawn when you got up this morning. 

The temperature rose with the south winds so that it was up to 38 degrees by 7 a.m. Closer to the lake, in downtown Burlington, the North End,  gardens around Shelburne Bay, Red Rocks in South Burlington, Colchester west of Route 7, St. Albans Bay - places like that - probably escaped any frost. 

REST OF TODAY

Dark clouds overhead made it actually looked like it might rain early this morning where I am in far northern Vermont. But relax, if it does rain this morning, it should only be a brief sprinkle in the far north. Showers on radar are going by to our north, toward Montreal. 

We'll end up with a day with sunshine south, clouds mixed with a little sun north. It'll get kind of windy in the Champlain Valley, breezy elsewhere with highs getting to near 60 degrees. Maybe low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

Overall, a nice enough day.

TOMORROW

It could actually be almost stormy at times, especially near the Canadian border. 

Scattered showers will develop late tonight, mostly north, as a series of weak disturbances come at us. 

By afternoon, a cold front will come at us. We will have some instability in the air, especially in the north. That means we could see some locally, briefly heavy showers, mixed with a little small hail and maybe a rumble of thunder. 

It won't rain all day. Just scattered showers, with a few isolated heavier showers or thundershowers. Thunderstorms are increasingly rare this time of year, so this might be the last time we hear thunder until spring. 

This won't be a glorious dump of needed rain. But by the end of the day, northern areas could receive  tenth to a quarter inch of rain. Maybe a little more than that in the western slopes of the northern Green Mountains. 

Southern Vermont will see little or no rain out of this little cold front. Highs should get into the low 60s, except upper 50s far north. So not bad.  

FRIDAY

We're in for more blustery weather, with cool northwest breezes and partly sunny skies. Maybe closer to mostly cloudy in the north. There could be a few light showers in the northern Green Mountains. Highs will only reach the 50s. More frost will probably arrive Friday night, even in the Champlain Valley. 

WEEKEND

It looks like we're in for another classic fall weekend. It'll be the second peak foliage weekend with great weather. The peak foliage we had in the Northeast Kingdom we had last weekend, will have faded toward stick season.

But elsewhere in the state, the foliage should be spectacular, despite today's wind and tomorrow's gusty showers and weak storms. The state will still be flooded with tourists. If you're headed to Stowe or Woodstock, I wish you godspeed. 

Otherwise, hit the back roads that don't have many leaf peepers and enjoy our scenery. 

COMING UP

Also look for a post later today or tomorrow on how a storm with the weird name of Isaias could alleviate dry conditions in Vermont for the second time in six years. 

 

It's Always Women Who Warn Us, And Men Who Take Credit Or Cover It Up: A Climate Change Discovery Story

Eunice Foote was the first scientist to figure out that 
increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could
lead to global warming. She did this in 1856.
However, a male physicist gets the credit for m
making the same discovery, but in 1859.

Why. oh why, do we ignore women when they see important stuff that we should all know about?

This is going on forever. I have yet example.  

Way back in 1856, a woman named Eunice Newton Foote started running some scientific experiments. As Tess Joose wrote for the American Physical Society back in 2023:

"She set up 30-inch-long cylinders, each with a thermometer inside, and each filled with different gases and gaseous mixtures - moist air, dry air, carbon dioxide, oxygen and hydrogen. 

Foote placed the cylinders in the sun and charted how the gases warmed. The cylinder containing carbon dioxide warmed the most, she noted and stayed at its hight temperature for a long time after she took it out of the sun.'

She had the following to say about carbon dioxide in a paper she wrote: "Atmosphere of that gas would go to our earth a high temperature." In other words, Foote had just discovered climate change.

Foote was an early feminist. In 1841, she'd married a patent lawyer named Elisha Foote, then they moved to Seneca Falls, New York. The couple attended the Seneca Falls convention in 1848 which decried gender inequality and proclaimed alienable rights, accord to abs. 

While she was championing women's rights, Foote also set up a home laboratory. She might have been inspired by Joseph Henry, a family friend who was interested in how weather and climate impacted agriculture. 

Henry read Foote's results, titled "Circumstances Affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays," at the 10th annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science  in Albany, New York on August 23, 1856.  (It was uncommon for women to read their own work back in the pre-Civil War America). 

He paper was excluded from the official conference proceedings. 

As is usually the case with smart women who discover things first, Foote was pretty much ignored.  Three years after Foote's discoveries. John Tyndall, an Irish physicist, using spiffier equipment than Foote, also determined that carbon dioxide would create a greenhouse effect. Tyndall is now regarded as the father of climate science.

Tyndall was well-educated and highly educated. He had better equipment. He publicized his results. It's 'unclear whether he knew of Foote's work. But, being a man, Tyndall created a much bigger splash than any woman could. 

Tyndall published his results. 

Evan J. Segal wrote in Substack: 

"(Tyndall) credited Joseph Fourier and Claude Pouillet in his opening remarks. He did not mention Eunice. Historians still debate whether he ever knew of her work. What is not in dispute is that Tyndall got the mountains, the institutes, the glaciers and the lunar crater named after him. Eunice got a hundred and fifty years of silence."  

We didn't know about Foote until about 15 years ago or so. As Segal tells us, a retired petroleum geologist found a summary of Foote's work in an 1857 volume of The Annual of Scientific Discovery.

The next year, the geologist published a short article about her in the American Association of Petroleum Geologists' journal Search and Discovery, hoping others would see the article and investigate further. 

They did. Eventually.  Segal continues the chronology: 

In December, 2016, Leila McNeill wrote an article about Foote in Smithsonian Magazine.  Katherine Hayhoe amplified the story. 

NOAA's Annarita Marietta published a letter in Nature on the 200th anniversary of Foote's birth. The New York Times in 2020 added Foote to its Overlooked series, noting that the paper failed to note her death when it happened and failed to notice her work.  

So, Foote, did finally get some recognition, though not enough. And too bad she didn't get the recognition she deserved when she was alive. 

 

A Blustery Monday To Be Followed By A Blustery Day Today, Frost Tonight, A Dry Vermont Foliage Week Ahead

Gusty winds and scattered showers (you can see a 
billowing shower cloud upper right) greeted 
Vermonters Monday. The photo looks pleasant,
but the gusty winds felt awfully chilly. 

By Vermont standards, Monday's air wasn't really cold at all. It was in the 50s with a stiff west winds. But Henry the weather dog ended up shivering at the dog park in the afternoon, and I was shivering just as much. 

It was the coolest day we've had this autumn, and it felt it. 

Tis the season. 

The showers that got going Monday morning and afternoon formed in cold enough air to drop small hail in towns like Montgomery and Fairfax and others. The winds were gusty for sure. 

Burton Island had gusts to 41 mph, Colchester Reef saw 39 mph and 30 to 35 mph at numerous locations. 

Get used to the wind.  Winter is much, much windier than summer. Winter is coming.  So if you don't want the wind to wreck your hairdo, you're in for a very, very several months. 

The wind will keep blowing today, but not as hard as it did yesterday. Here are the details: 

TODAY

Clouds still covered northern Vermont this morning. The south was clear. Sunshine will increase during the day and those northwest winds will continue to gust. Maybe not as much as yesterday, but you'll notice. The air will turn dry, too. The humidity will be low enough for to issue a Chap Stick weather alert.  

Highs today will be in the low and mid 50s.  

If you missed out on freezing temperatures last night, chances are you'll see them tonight. There's a frost advisory for all of the Champlain Valley, including the islands. Though Lake Champlain might protect many places on the islands from the frost. 

Another saving grace that might protect some gardens in the Champlain is the first stirrings of south winds as the cold high pressure system starts to pass to the east. But don't count on it. If you didn't take your sensitive plants in yesterday and they survived last night, take them in tonight. If you don't this might be the last time you see them. 

Outside the Champlain Valley, a frost is almost guaranteed. There's no frost or freeze advisories in Vermont away from Lake Champlain because it's considered past the growing season. 

REST OF THE WEEK

A persistent pattern featuring a west to northwest wind flow will continue all week, keeping us mostly dry. This pattern will block any real moisture from coming our way. 

On the bright side, it's great for Vermont and the foliage season. Tourists will continue to swarm the state. Hopefully future will be plenty of colorful, dying leaves to keep them happy. 

On the negative side, the developing drought in much of Vermont could get worse.  Any rain we receive will be super light and brief. We need a drenching. We won't be getting anything like that anytime soon. 

Tomorrow

A warm front passing through in the morning will produce some clouds and maybe some sprinkles.  Sunshine should break through in the afternoon. It'll be warmer, with highs near 60. 

Thursday

A cold front will approach with another batch of scattered showers. Any rain that does arrive won't amount to much. It'll be mild ahead of the front with highs hopefully in the 60s. 

Friday-Sunday

Cool again, with highs in the 50s to near 60.  Some clouds might linger during parts of Friday but it will generally be sunny both days, At least as it looks  now. We'll also probably have some frosty and foggy early mornings, too.  

Sunday looks like it might be sunny, too. And warmer. Forecasts could change, but this looks like it will be a fantastic leaf peeping week. 

 

"Kelvin Wave" The Latest Meteorological Buzz Word: What To Worry About. Spoiler: Very Little For Most Of Us

A schematic showing how a Kevin waves work. In this
case it's a bulge of warm water and and a temporary
sea level rise of at least six inches rise that can 
exacerbate coastal flooding. 

Polar Vortex. Heat Dome. El Nino. Bomb Cyclone.

Lots of weather buzz words have come up in recent years. The terms have become bogeymen in social media, becoming monsters lurking to kill us all at the right moment. Even if all to these aren't exactly the end of the world. 

Now we have another one. Kelvin waves. 

Before we get into it, I'll be honest. A Kelvin wave along the West Coast won't affect you much at all, unless you live or work right along the ocean front.  

Kelvin waves are huge slow-moving pulses of warm subsurface ocean water that travel along the equator until they smack against a coastline.

They form when trade winds slow down or stop. This Kelvin wave in the Pacific is reinforcing the current record breaking El Nino. It moved westward across the Pacific before smacking into the west coast of South America. 

From there, the Kelvin waves moved both north and south. One batch moved southward along the South American coast. The other went north along the Mexican coast and the on to the U.S. West Coast.

The Kelvin wave has moved as far north as around San Francisco so far.  

Kelvin waves are not something anyone can see. They're just a subtle, huge ridge in the water. 

The Associated Press explains further: 

"Kelvin waves are not like tsunamis, and they don't curl over and crash on the beach. A better image is water sloshing in the bathtub or a swimming pool during an earthquake.

In the ocean, they are bulges of water that lift the sea level as they move along the coast. They're common during El Nino event, but this year's El Nino could intensify the impacts, experts say."

The six inch to foot tall surge is moving north along the California coast and will eventually raise water levels somewhat in Oregon and Washington, too.The Kelvin wave now hitting the West Coast has the potential for worsening coastal flooding, There's no real storm this week along the California coast, but there's been some swells from distant hurricanes. 

Last month, while the Kelvin wave was building, , elevated sea levels and waves from offshore Hurricane Marie caused destructive waves along the southern California coast, especially around Long Beach. 

There's nothing especially damaging going on now. So this particular Kelvin wave isn't likely to cause an enormous amount of damage. 

But the risk isn't over.

The current Kelvin wave is the first of what will probably be several such waves between now and about next February. El Ninos typically produce five or six of these, and the one ongoing now is only the first. 

Even before any Kelvin waves hit, the sea level is already elevated due to climate change. The risk is when new Kelvin waves hit when high astronomical "King Tides." and strong storms hit at the same time. 

That kind of triple attack would cause a ton of damage along the California coast.

King Tides are expected on November 24-26, December 23-25 and January 21-22.  

El Ninos have historically unleashed a series of severe storms onto the California coast.  Imagine if, say, over the Christmas holiday, there is a Kelvin wave, a King Tide and a severe storm all hitting at the same time. 

That's what keeps emergency managers up at night. 

El Nino is looming. There's no guarantee California will succumb to severe storms, high, damaging tides and battering waves.  But it's definitely something to prepare for.  

The Cold, Blustery Weather Is Here As A Vermont Autumn Deepens

There's subtle fall foliage in pine trees, too. The late 
afternoon sun lights up the golden tone of pine
needles on the trees that are about to fall
off as autumn continues 

The strong cold front passed through Vermont his morning, setting off no more than some scattered showers. There was briefly a weird, heavy one east of St. Albans, but for most of us, it was just light stuff. And widely scattered. Many places got no rain at all.  

 Today and tomorrow will give us our first bout with wind chills. The actual air temperature will be chilly, of course, but winds will make it feel noticeably worse. As always. let's get into it:

TODAY

A slot of drier air will give us some partly sunny skies this morning with mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Maybe more partly sunny in the lower Connecticut River Valley.  

The cold air flooding in, combined with with a secondary cold front could set off a few light, cold showers here and there, but those won't be anything to worry about. 

After peaking in the 55 to 60 degree range later this afternoon, temperatures should slowly fall this afternoon as the west and northwest winds pick up. Wind chills will fall through the 40s today, and into the 30s overnight as the wind continues to blow.

Since the wind will continue to blow overnight tonight, we won't settle into a calm, hard frost. Instead, temperatures will fall to near 32 degrees across much of the state. That's still a garden killer, frost or not. You'll still need to do your emergency pre-frost harvest today.

The Champlain Valley, especially near the lake, will probably eke out a night staying above freezing.

TUESDAY

It'll be another blustery and cool day. But with more sunshine. By blustery, I don't mean howling, screaming winds. Just gusts in the 20 to 30 mph. Enough to make it feel cooler than it is. The wind today and tomorrow will probably push the foliage past peak in the Northeast Kingdom, but the colors will remain safe in the rest of the state. The wind is certainly by no means anything unusual. 

Highs temperatures Tuesday should rise only just to within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. 

The air will get very. very dry, especially during the afternoon. If you have trouble with dry skin and chapped lips, this will not be your day. 

Tuesday night will be the cold, frosty one. Most places in Vermont will have a garden season-ending frost. The Champlain Valley, especially near the lake, could escape the frost. Especially since a very gentle south winds could begin to blow in the few hours before sunrise.

WEDNESDAY

The cold high pressure will head off to our east. South winds will pick up, and it will get gusty again in the Champlain Valley.  But it will be a little warmer, as highs get to near 60 degrees, give or take. Skies should stay partly sunny.

THURSDAY THROUGH WEEKEND

We'll be in a fast westerly pattern with weak cold fronts and disturbances coming in every other day or so, give or take. That means seasonable temperatures, periods of somewhat windy weather and very little rain.

 

Chilly Morning In Vermont; Even Colder Start To The New Week. Garden Killer?

These vibrant flowers in my window boxes in St.
Albans, Vermont might not be so vibrant after the
upcoming cold weather Monday and Tuesday. 

OK, Saturday was just perfect in Vermont. Deep blue skies, crisp air, gorgeous foliage. Probably the best autumn weather day of the year. 

As expected, we had a clear, cold night in Vermont, typical for early October. Most places saw a dawn with temperatures in the 30s. A few spots in western Vermont were in the 40s. In those places, the first stirrings of some south winds flushed some of the cool air out. 

TODAY

Today, the south winds will pick up. High clouds will increase, too, but it will still be a nice day. Highs will get into the 60s. So if you missed yesterday, you still have a decent day today. 

Then we get into hard core autumn tomorrow with a slight hint of winter. 

MONDAY

Our cold, blustery cold front is still on schedule for Monday morning. It might have some light showers near and along it, but that's not the story. It'll come through in the morning, and by afternoon, we'll know that autumn is getting serious. 

Temperatures during the day will stay steady or fall through the 50s. Winds will pick up from the northwest, gusting to 30 or 35 mph in spots. Leaves will fly through the air, the temperature will drop. There could even be a snowflake or two at the mountain summits.

 It won't exactly be wintry, but close enough. The weather will have a bite to it. Or, depending on your attitude toward winter, it will just bite. 

Do your emergency frost harvests in the gardens, and take in your sensitive plants for the upcoming winter. 

I'm getting all dramatic here, but in the grand scheme of things, this isn't all that unusual. We do get these early October cold snaps from time to time. We're not used to it, given our recent warm Octobers. 

It's been far worse this time of year. A large, damaging snowstorm hit large parts of Vermont and New York on this date in 1987. In 1965, Burlington's high temperatures on October 4 and 5 were in the 30s. So yes, it could be much tougher than what we're predicting for Monday and Tuesday. 

TUESDAY

The day will start cold, but not the typical calm, frosty start we often see this time of year. The wind will have kept blowing all night. Some areas will wake up to a freeze, one that is virtually frost-freeze but most certainly still a garden killer. 

The rest of the day will be quite cool, but calmer than Monday. And sunnier. Highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50. 

Tuesday night will feature calm winds, clear skies and cold temperatures. Most places in Vermont should get to near or below freezing. Some areas right near Lake Champlain will probably escape the frost. But, for the most part, those of us who haven't had our first frost of the season.

REST OF WEEK

It'll be a quiet period with generally partly to mostly sunny daytimes, with seasonable highs in the low to mid 60s.  The only chance of rain might come at the end of the week, with light, isolated showers as a lame little disturbances comes through. 

That's great news for the leaf peepers vacationing in Vermont. Or for those of us who like to drive the back roads this time of year to look at the foliage. In some years, big storms strip the foliage from the trees, cutting short the best of the season. Not this year. 

Foliage season will eventually end, but not this week. 

Rain Misses Most Of Vermont Again, Beautiful Day Today, Brief Cold Snap Early Week

A nice sunset after a dark, rainy day in St. Albans, 
Vermont on Friday. While far northwestern Vermont
got some decent rains, the showers largely
missed most of the rest of the state. 

 Yesterday's cold front only managed to bring substantial rain to far northwestern Vermont. 

My unofficial rain gauge up in St. Albans caught a very nice 1.02 inches of rain. Burlington had a respectable 0.49. But everywhere else - pfft.  

We knew southeastern Vermont would miss out, but central parts of the state did, too. Montpelier managed to receive just 0.16 inches. St. Johnsbury and Rutland had less than a tenth of an inch.

Very little rain is in the cards for the next week. Most of us need the rain, but we're still going to have to wait awhile for it. 

On the bright side, the rest of today will be, well, bright. A perfect fall day, really. Head out to leaf peep, but stay off the traditional tourist roads - they'll be jammed for sure. 

Highs should reach within either side of 60 degrees. The cool air will prompt frost in some areas tonight, but I think the Champlain Valley is mostly safe. For now. That'll change soon. More on that in a bit. 

TOMORROW

Another nice one. Patchy fog and frost early in the day, as is traditional in Vermont for early October.  We might have some clouds come in during the afternoon, but overall it will be pleasant, with highs in the 60s. 

MONDAY

Here's where things take a cold turn. A cold front will come through in the morning. It won't have much moisture to work with, but it will be a very dynamic system which could be enough to set off some light showers. 

But the real news is the blast of cold air coming in. Depending on when the cold front actually comes through, at least part of the day will prove to be a windy, cold day. You're going to want to dig some of your warmer clothes out from the back of the closet. This will be no means be record-setting, but it will be our first minimal hint of winter. 

The timing of the front will determine when it gets cold on Monday. Early guesses are that temperatures will fall through the 50s in the afternoon. 

By evening, temperatures will be crashing, northwest winds could gust to 30 mph. Home heaters and wood stoves will go on for the first time this autumn. The last vestiges of the cold front's moisture could throw a few snowflakes onto the mountain summits, or coat the stunted trees atop those mountains with a bit of rime ice. 

Monday will be a very good day to put on your warm coat and do an emergency frost harvest in your garden. For most places, except right near Lake Champlain, will very likely see the growing season decidedly end. Your garden will be a wilted mess by either Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

TUESDAY

Winds will continue to blow Monday night. The winds will prevent frost, but a lot of places will get below freezing, so that would kill remaining garden plants. 

During the day, the wind will continue to blow, adding a wind chill to the air. But the sun will be out. Call it a chilly fall day. Highs will stay in the low 50s, give or take. 

Tuesday night will go below freezing everywhere except maybe right near Lake Champlain.  Colder spots will go well into the 20s. 

REST OF NEXT WEEK

A warming trend. Nothing wild. Just back up to near normal temperatures. We'll have at least some sun every day, and there's a good chance most if not all days Wednesday through Friday will be at least partly sunny, if not clear. 

The cold snap and wind Monday and Tuesday probably will have ended the foliage season up in the Northeast Kingdom, but the rest of the state should be dressed very nicely in fall colors. The good think about a lack of storms is that high winds and heavy rain won't be around to strip off the leaves before we get a good look at them.  

Vermont September Was Dry. Burlington Had Coolest September Since 2013, But Still Historically Warmish

Henry the weather dog, right, and his larger
friend, Cooper, left, together enjoy a very
pleasant day on September 14. The month
was cooler than recent Septembers, and
there were plenty of sunny, pleasantly
cool days like this one. 

If you look at the past 138 years Septembers in Burlington, this September was pretty middle of the road as far as temperatures go. 

Even with that, this September in Burlington was the coolest since 2013. Climate change has altered what we considered "normal."

 If this past month happened during the middle of the 20th century it would have been near average, maybe even a little warm side. 

The average temperature in Burlington was 61.2 degrees, or 1.5 degrees cooler than what is now considered "average.'

To give you an idea how much has changed since climate change really started causing havoc with the weather I give you this: Thirty years ago, the normal September average temperature in Burlington was 59.4 degrees. Which would have made this past September a warmer than typical month.

Elsewhere in Vermont, September, 2026 temperatures were close to "normal." The modern, warmer "normal."   Places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Rutland and Woodstock were all came in within a degree of this new normal.

September was a dry month in most places. Burlington was 1.68 inches below normal. The 1.99 inches of rain that did fall on Burlington made it the 26th driest record out of the past 138 years. 

Montpelier was almost as dry as Burlington, coming in at 1.25 inches on the light side.  Parts of southeastern Vermont had near normal precipitation, thanks in large part to a late month nor'easter.

The dry weather is continuing to worsen drought or near-drought conditions across Vermont. The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, shows abnormally dry conditions expanded to include almost all of the northern two-thirds of Vermont. Last week. western parts of the state had adequate moisture. Now, most of the Champlain Valley is dry, too. 

At least actual drought hasn't really expanded. At least for now. Like last week, moderate drought encompasses about a quarter of the state, in the Northeast Kingdom. 

On the bright side, the dry weather gave us plenty of absolutely gorgeous, comfortable September days featured blue skies and just the earliest hints of autumn in the air. 

LOOKING AHEAD

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is pretty non-committal with the outlook for October.  They give New England equal chances of above or below normal temperatures, and equal chances of above or below normal rainfall. 

Looking at NOAA's eight to 14 day outlook, taking us into mid-October gives us cool-ish to near normal temperatures, and near to perhaps edging toward below normal precipitation.  Which is too bad, we need at least a couple really soggy months to make Vermont adequately wet again. 

As always, we shall see!

  

Showers Dampening Vermont Ahead Of Classic Autumn Weekend

Early autumn calls starting to show under an overcast 
skies near Georgia, Vermont Thursday.  Clouds were
thicker than forecast yesterday. 

The weather forecasts seemed to be creaky lately.  

I'm not dissing National Weather Service meteorologists, they're working super hard. They're professional and dedicated 

But I think Trump-inspired cuts to the NWS might be interfering with picky details in the computer models. Not enough data is hitting those computer thingamajigs. 

Which might be creating more than picky mistakes in some weather forecasts.

I don't have any proof of this. And I know I'm oversimplifying a potential problem here.  Weather forecasts are almost never 100 percent accurate. Nature does what nature does. Nature still holds some secrets that meteorologists and other scientists haven't uncovered yet. 

But it seems that in the past week, forecast misses have been coming almost every day.   I hope somebody out there is researching the effects of Trump's cuts to the NWS and science in general to see that's all messing with weather forecasting

This rant is inspired by yesterday's weather. Broad brush, the forecast was correct. It was supposed to be relatively warm, relatively humid for this time of year, and that's what happened. 

But it was still cooler than forecast - near 70 instead of well up in the 70s.  Instead of variable cloudiness a thick, dark overcast hung over at least parts of Vermont for a good portion of the day, mostly in the afternoon. 

Now, what's going on with the weather over the next couple of days looks pretty straight-forward, so I have hopes that the forecasts for the next couple of days will turn out pretty accurate. Let's get into it: 

TODAY

Dawn broke today much like a sort of muggy July morning. Temperatures at 6 a.m. were in the mid to upper 60s in most spots. Montpelier was at 70 degrees. Rutland was at 71. 

Don't worry, it won't be a hot day, far from it. A cold front was making its way into Vermont early this  morning with a batch of showers. 

I think this would have been an almost dry cold frontal passage, if not for Hurricane Polo. That hurricane came ashore early this week a zillion miles away from us in Mexico's Baja California. 

But its remnants spread flooding rains into the Desert Southwest and Plains, and injected moisture along the front all the way up into our neck of the woods. 

Unfortunately for those of us who want and need a  lot of rain, this won't be the moment. The front is moving fast enough so that it won't have time to deposit much rain here. 

Most of us will receive a half inch or less. Storm totals will be maybe a quarter inch in many areas, give or take.Southern Vermont, especially the southeast, will probably get less than a tenth of an inch. 

The fast movement of the cold front will mean rain should pretty much be over in northwest Vermont by early afternoon, and mid to late afternoon elsewhere. 

Temperatures should hold steady or fall for the rest of the day as cooler air comes in and mostly cloudy skies linger after the bulk of the run has ended.

SATURDAY

We're still looking at a classic autumn day.  We'll have bright sunshine under blue skies. with highs within a few degrees either side of 60 degrees. Perfect conditions for leaf peeping, pumpkin shopping, fall festivals, you name it. 

Watch out for frost overnight. Carry in your sensitive plants that are still out there.  All my sensitive tropical-ish plants on my deck are coming in, mostly because of what's coming next week. More on that in a bit. 

SUNDAY

The day will start with patchy fog and frost. Here's a hint for leaf peepers and photographers: Get out there early, while it's still foggy. There's something magical about the sun breaking through the fog amid the multi-colored tree.s

Some clouds will come in during the day, but it will still be nice. Highs should get into the low 60s. Maybe mid-60s in the warmer valleys. 

MONDAY

A sharp cold front will come through, with maybe a few showers and more solid blast of chilly air. Highs should only reach the 50s as gusty northwest winds blowing through. The day could start out relatively mild, but it should turn out to be a cold day.  I wouldn't even be surprised if a few snow flurries grace the mountain peaks. 

Monday night will be cold, with a potentially widespread freeze, except right near Lake Champlain. 

TUESDAY

Another prematurely chilly day. Early guesses are the sun will be out, but highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. This isn't incredibly cold for early October -  we've had highs in the upper 30s to near 40 this time of year.  

But it will be a shock to the system. Especially since recent Octobers have been so warm. On the same dates that this cool snap will hit, it was in the 80s last year. 

Alito Recuses Himself From Climate Case; Proves Public Pressure Can Sometimes Work

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito is recusing himself
from a case involving fossil fuel companies, reversing
his earlier plans thanks to public pressure. 

Public pressure against injustice actually sometimes works. Even when it involves the Supreme Court. 

Per CNN:

"Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito announced Monday that he will recuse himself from a major climate change-related case the court is set to hear next week, following weeks of pressure from environmental groups that argued he was compromised by his financial holdings in the oil and gas industry."

Alito sent a letter to the court clerk saying he would not participate in the case, but did not explain the reasoning behind his decision. 

The case involves Boulder, Colorado and whether it can sue Suncor Energy and ExonMobil for damages caused by climate change. Or whether state laws are pre-empted by federal law and separation of powers principles in the Constitution. 

The Supreme Court case will have a big impact on similar legislation on other states, including Vermont. 

Even with Alito apparently out of the picture,  it's unclear whether the rest of the Supreme Court will side with Boulder. The Supreme Court hasn't really been friendly to environmental initiatives in recent years. 

Alito owns stock in ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66, among other energy holdings, CNN reports. 

In any event, Alito's turnaround is a bit of surprise. Back in May, a Supreme Court spokesman had said that since Alito doesn't have stock in the oil companies involved in the court case, he needn't recuse himself. 

Alito's recusal came after a lot of public pressure. As Scotusblog reports:

"In May, a coalition of left-leaning watchdog groups urged the Senate Judiciary Committee to investigate Alito's involvement in the dispute, contending that his 'substantial holdings in individual oil and gas companies' among other issues, would 'undermine(e) public confidence in the impartiality of the Court.

They stated that Alito had 'previously recused from considering a petition brought by' the same companies involved in Suncor Energies, 'There is no apparent reason for this change in Justice Alito's recusal practices, and Alison provided no statement justifying his failure to recuse,' the groups wrote." 

There's a lot to complain about regarding our current U.S. Supreme Court, but this was at least a small victory in the name of fairness.

 

A Warm Vermont Day, Showers, Then A Couple Coolish Days, Then A Sharp Cold Front

Expected rainfall tomorrow. Maybe a quarter in in much
of Vermont. If we're lucky, more than a half inch in
northwest Vermont. Southeast Vermont looks likes it
will miss out, with less than a tenth of an inch. 

The sky eventually sorta, kinda finally cleared out yesterday afternoon, revealing the high, thin overcast we expected.  

The persistent clouds kept Wednesday's temperatures a little cooler than expected, with highs generally in 60s. 

Up next, some typically variable Vermont weather. We got a warm, somewhat humid day, another day that shifts from warm and rainy to cooler, a glorious Saturday, an OK Sunday and then some downright frosty weather. 

Let's get into it. 

TODAY

The sky finally showed some nice blue this morning, the last of the low clouds finally having been flushed out.  The day has also started really warm for the first of October. Most of Vermont had temperatures in the 50s at dawn, with a couple low 60s in the Champlain Valley. 

The blue skies this morning will disappear behind mostly high and middle clouds. Those clouds will hold temperatures down a little more than we originally thought. Instead of mid and upper 70s, highs will probably top off within a few degrees either side of 70.

There could be some light showers later this afternoon near the Canadian border, but those will be spotty and super light. 

It will also feel a little humid, especially for this time of year.

FRIDAY

A fairly strong cold front will come through during the day. The morning and probably a good chunk of the afternoon should be showery and pretty humid for the season. 

Best guess is that much of northern Vermont could end up at a quarter and a half inch, with maybe a little more along the western slopes of the northern Green Mountains. 

Southern Vermont should have less than a quarter inch of rain, with only a few hundredth of an inch in the southeast

Then, chillier air will start to move in, and that will be most noticeable in the north and west.  Expected high temperatures will be in the 60s, give or take. 

The cool air will become firmly established Friday night.  

SATURDAY

It continues to look like the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing has an order in for a perfect fall weekend day on tap.  Or at least they've been channeling the weather gods for this because parts of the state are now at peak foliage. 

The day will feature blue skies and crisp air.  Highs should make it to within a few degrees either said of 60 degrees. Watch out for frost Saturday night and early Sunday. Not everybody will get that white film on their lawns. But if you still have some plants outdoors that need to come in, you might keep cover them or bring them in Saturday evening

SUNDAY

It's beginning to look like Sunday will be nicer than we thought a few days ago. Sounds like the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing is working really hard with the weather gods.  Instead of the overcast and showers we thought would plague Sunday, it's now looking like it might be partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Sweet! 

EARLY NEXT WEEK

It still looks like a strong cold front will arrive.  Hard freezes could hit many areas of Vermont. I wouldn't even rule out some mountain snow flurries. Winter's coming - eventually. 

Stubborn Clouds Stay Over Vermont, A Sign Of Season; Brief Warmup, Then Autumn Chill To Flood In

Low clouds and fog yesterday hung on all day in much
of Vermont yesterday, and that gray gloom has lasted
into today. The hope is that fog will finally break
up later this morning or early afternoon 

We woke up in Vermont this morning to the same low overcast and fog we've endured for the past two or three days.  

Clearing has been repeatedly delayed. It's because a temperature inversion has trapped dense moisture near the ground. Get used to it. The waning, weakening autumn sun is less and less able to disrupt these inversions.  

So the fog and gray clouds remain. This phenomenon is a big reason why November and December are almost always overcast. 

It's the last day of September. The sun isn't at the same angle as it was in June. But not as lame as December. The sun should be able to break our current inversion. Albeit much later than forecast. A couple of days ago, we thought the sun would come out yesterday afternoon. 

Obviously, we're still waiting. So, what is going to happen?

REST OF TODAY

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is insisting the low clouds, fog and drizzle will finally break up late this morning or this afternoon.  We hope. A layer of drier air aloft is getting thicker, stronger. That should help gradually flush out the drizzly gray atmosphere. 

Once and if the low clouds break up, it won't 'get all nice and sunny. The moisture stream from thunderstorms across the southwestern United States from the remnants of Hurricane Polo. This moisture is high above the dry layer that meteorologists hope will flush out the low clouds.

The end result would be finally become a brighter day once we get into the afternoon. But the sun would be dimmed by high and mid level clouds.  It's iffy, but the thinking is the low clouds will dissipate soon enough so that temperatures will still be able to reach near 70 degrees. 

I'm not 100 percent sure the low clouds will break up as forecast, but there's always hope. 

THURSDAY

This part of the forecast hasn't 'changed much since yesterday. It'll be warm and humid, thanks to those Hurricane Polo remnants. It also won't be a clear, sunny day, though the sun will be out on and off. We'll call it partly sunny. Highs will reach the low and mid 70s, with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

A couple showers might show up in the far north in the later afternoon, but don't necessarily count on it raining. 

FRIDAY

After a fairly muggy night for early October, a cold front will approach and come through on Friday. On the bright side, the front will have grabbed a little bit of moisture from the Hurricane Polo remnants.  The bad news is the front will be stretching out and moving fast. It won't have time to drop much rain on us. Too bad, because we need it. 

The end result will probably be about a quarter inch of rain, give or take. 

Temperatures and humidity will depend on when the front comes in. It will probably feel a little warm and humid amid the showers for at least part of the day before much cooler and drier air comes in. 

SATURDAY

Hopefully, a classic early October Vermont day. Early morning patch fog (again!) should burn off into sunshine. Highs should reach somewhere around the low 60s, give or take as it looks now. Basically a foliage season day sponsored by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

Watch out for frost again Saturday night and early Sunday morning. 

SUNDAY

Unfortunately, rain chances have diminished a lot compared to earlier forecasts. THere's still a chance of scattered lights showers, especially later in the day, but don't hold your breath. We'll also have some sun and seasonable temperatures in the 60s All in all, an OK day. 

EARLY WEEK

Initial indications give us the risk of a hard freeze early next week.  Details aren't available yet, so we'll want to stay tuned. 

Trump To Relax Fuel Standards For Cars, Though There's Lots Of Questions About How Much That Would Help Consumers

The Trump administration is rolling back fuel efficiency
standards for cars and trucks. The Trumpsters say
that will save consumers money, but fuel costs will
eat up any savings. The climate will suffer, but
the oil and gas industry will benefit. 

The Trump announced Monday it was rolling back on the nation's fuel economy standards, claiming that will help Americans with affordability when buying cars.Though some experts suggest consumers wouldn't exactly save tons of cash. 

Washington Post describes Trump's move, announced on Monday:

"The rules still require fuel efficiency improvements but at a slower pace. Automakers now will need a car-and-truck fleet wide average of 34.9 mpg by the 2031 model year, instead of the stricter, projected 49.3  mpg under the Biden-era rule. Average fuel economy was 27.2 mpg in the 2024 model year, according to a government analysis."

In a social media post, Trump wrote his rolled back standard, "means LOWER PRICES, saving families thousands on a  new, beautiful and safe car."

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimated the new vehicle price would be reduced by $1,289 due to the lower fuel standard. Whether automakers pass the savings on consumers is a very open question. 

New cars these days cost about $50,000 on average, so $1,300 is comparatively small potatoes. 

Plus, especially if gas prices remain high, that $1,300 in savings would soon evaporate. Consumers might still turn to EVs as an alternative. Especially since high gas prices will quickly erase those supposed $1,300 in savings. 

As the Washington Sun reported, the decision to loosen efficiency standards for new cars could add roughly $1,600 in fuel costs for drivers. So much for those savings on new car purchases. 

Turns out a lot of people are seeing this cost issue. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-RI posted on Bluesky: "Another fossil fuel con job. Any savings on the front end get eaten up and spat out by excess costs of fuel, which go to - oh, right - Trump's big corrupt fossil fuel donors. Fuel economy standards have saved drivers hundreds of billons of dollars."

It's all about more cash for billionaires, right?

The main point of better fuel efficiency is to reduce pollution, including the emissions that worsen climate change. 

At least we can say Trump is consistent here, which is rare for him. He hates fuel efficiency, mostly because he's in that small and shrinking group who thinks climate change is a "hoax."  Trump has already cut the federal tax credit for electric vehicle buyers, delayed federal dollars for a nationwide EV charging program, and striking down federal waivers that let California set its own strict pollution regulations, as NPR notes. 

In the long run, Trump's move to weaken fuel efficiency goals in cars might actually hinder the American automotive industry. 

As NPR reports: 

"Easing CAFE standards will hinder the industry's realignment toward more fuel-efficient and electric vehicles, said economist Sue Helper, who studies the auto industry at Case Western Reserve University. 

'It's very bad in the long term, because it slows progress,' she said. 'Then we make our auto companies less competitive. We give them less practice in making the cars that both Americans will want in the future and the rest of the world will want.'"

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg agreed with Helper. He posted on social media: "Lowering standards will accelerate what her has already been doing: Handing the clean tech future to China and forcing Americans to pay more at the pump."

Trump's Department of Transportation is still aggressively selling the efficiency rollback. As Car and Driver reports, the department claims the alleged savings will save Americans $138 billion over the next five years.  The department also claims it will lead shoppers to buy newer vehicles, saving 1,900 lives and preventing more than 300,000 serious injuries. 

Although, we don't know whether people would actually buy new cars. The economy is bad enough such that people are holding off on purchasing new vehicles.  

I'm sure some people will buy Trump's sales pitch. There's always some gullible people out there. But the relaxed fuel efficiency standards are just a money grab for the oligarchy, and not us.