Severe Weather, Tornadoes, Ramping Up In The Middle U.S. Again

A dust storm in rural North Dakota caused vehicle 
crashes. The dust storms spread across wide
areas of the northern Plains and southern Canada.
Photo from North Dakota Highway Patrol

The same weather pattern that kept us in Vermont pretty cool and showery for the first half of May also suppressed severe weather in Tornado Alley. 

Sure, there were some severe storms, high winds, hail and a few tornadoes over the past couple weeks. 

But not the frightening, powerhouse tornado outbreaks that often terrorize the Plains, Midwest and South this time of year.

That's about to change. That shouldn't be surprising, as this is the peak of severe storm season. 

ALREADY STARTED

We had the first hint of that on Wednesday and Thursday. A strong storm system in southwestern Canada swept high winds through the northern Rockies, northern Plains and into Manitoba, Canada.  

The dust storms with this weather system actually started on Wednesday in Utah and Idaho. The dust storm there caused an eight-car pileup in Utah.  The storm created a blast furnace in Montana, where record highs were set  in Havre, Great Falls, Bozeman and Billings, where it was 95 degrees. 

The heat was accompanied by intense winds. Big Sandy and Livingston, Montana gusted to 85 mph, Toston, Montana reached 78 mph and Havre reached 74 mph. A line of severe thunderstorms amid this chaos created a rare for Montana haboob.

The blowing dust continued in Montana Thursday, and spread into the Dakotas and Manitoba Thursday.  In some parts of Manitoba, rain showers collided with dust clouds, making it basically rain mud in a few places. 

IT WILL GET WORSE

Weather patterns are setting up in such a way to encourage more severe weather and tornadoes. Today, people from Texas to Wisconsin are under the gun, but Iowa seems like the main target. Although tornadoes are a possibility, the real threat late this afternoon and tonight is giant hail and winds to 75 mph. 

It's been a tough year for huge hailstones, and this could add to the destructive drama. 

Saturday

The "fun" is forecast to keep going in Iowa tomorrow, and spread into Nebraska and northern Kansas, where the best chance of bad storms arises. 

The risks look similar to today's. A couple tornadoes could spin up, but the biggest threat is huge hailstones and strong straight line winds. Remember, hail storms can easily be more damaging than tornadoes. Hail usually covers a much wider area in a storm than a tornado path would. 

Sunday

This looks like it might be the more dangerous day of the string of severe weather days. The early thinking is some supercells will develop in Nebraska and southern South Dakota and move east. That raises the risk for a tornado outbreak. 

The supercells will then congeal into a line of powerful storms moving into Iowa. Those wild storms could well include embedded tornadoes, and some of them could be strong, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

Monday

Monday will probably be the most dangerous day
out of the next several for severe storms in tornadoes
The darker orange area has the highest risk. 

This is the day to really watch the weather closely. Especially if you're anywhere between Texas and Michigan. The highest risk looks to be in some of the places that are likely to get hammered this weekend. Plus some new areas. 

That means Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, much of Missouri, Oklahoma and eastern South Dakota need to be on their toes. 

The Storm Prediction Center says that some of the tornadoes expected to touch down might be strong to intense, which is never a happy prediction. 

Most tornadoes are relatively week EF-0s and EF-1s.  

Stronger tornadoes, EF-2s and EF-3s, with winds of between 111 and 165 mph, represent about 15 percent of all U.S. tornadoes and account for about 25 percent of U.S. tornado deaths, give or tak

Less than one percent of all U.S. tornadoes are EF-4s or EF-5s, with winds of 166 mph and up. But those powerful twisters cause roughly 70 percent of all U.S. tornado deaths.  

The bottom line: Pray for weak tornadoes because the strong ones create the worst tragedies. 

Tuesday and Beyond

Severe storms are expected to continue in the Midwest Tuesday, then move more toward the south and southeast Wednesday and beyond. Exactly where the worst storms might fire up later in the week is till TBA

 

Once Again, Record Highs In The United States Far Outpaced Record Lows In 2025

A time/temperature sign on a St. Albans, Vermont 
bank building on a record hot day in June, 2025.
Record highs greatly outpaced record lows across
the United States last year. 

Records are made to be broken. 

That's especially true in the realm of weather and climate. 

Weather stations across the United States break tens of thousands of record highs and record lows each year. The recently ended 2025 was no exception. 

But, all those records last year reveal yet another sign of climate change. 

If the climate wasn't changing, the number of record highs and record lows should be roughly equal. Sure, certain months might have more record highs or record lows if there's a persistent weather pattern.

But those persistent patterns rarely last longer than a month. Two at the very most. By the time you count up an entire year, you should get a general match between record highs and record lows. 

In recent years, at least here in the United States and almost surely in the rest of the world, record highs are far outpacing record lows. 

The year 2025 certainly demonstrated that. There were about 2.5 times the number of daily record high temperatures, and record high daily overnight lows than records the cold side. 

The precise numbers were 41,792 record highs and 17,638 record lows.

You might get different figures from different sources depending on how many weather stations were analyzed. In this case and most others, the weather stations that were looked at had decades of records to look back upon. 

If a weather station was up and running for only, say five years, that station would constantly break high and low temperatures, and would not be representative of any particular trend. The Southeast Regional Climate Center, which compiled the statistics, didn't include weather stations that have only been operating for a few decades or less. 

2025 COMPARED AND HIGHLIGHTS 

While record highs far outpaced record lows in 2025, the previous two years were even more extreme. In 2024 there were 4.5 times as many record highs as record lows. In 2023 there were about three times as many as record highs compared to lows, the Washington Post reports. 

Also, in January, 2025, for the first time since May, 2023, there were more cold records than hot records. (1,370 record highs to 1,893 record lows). Almost all the January record lows, about 1,500 of them, hit during one six day cold snap between January 19 and 23.

An El Nino was underway for much of 2023 and pretty much all of 2024, which tends to make the United States hotter. That probably explains why the hot vs.cold records were more lopsided in those years than in 2025. 

The most out of whack month in 2025 was December, with 5,684. Most of the western United States had a record hot December, which explains that high number of records. March and April were also full of record highs. Each month had more than 4,200 record highs. 

Of the cities in the Lower 48 with records going back to the late 1800s, Brownsville, Texas had the most record highs, with 32 of them. Most of those records came in the final three months of the year. However, Honolulu, Hawaii beat out Brownsville with 50 record highs. Thirty-one of those Honolulu record highs were for warm overnight lows 

Fort Wayne, Indiana and Sioux City, Iowa had the most record lows, with just six each.

This first few days of 2026 are picking up where last year left off. There have been numerous record highs, mostly across the South so far this month. We have a couple more days of record highs go. There are signs parts of the U.S. could get a spate of record lows later this month. 

 

Record December Warmth Engulfs Western U.S.; Will Spread ..

NOAA's extended forecast for days surrounding
Christmas show strong chances of above normal
temperatures, with probably some record
highs thrown in, across much of the southern
U.S. It appears New England will stay cold. 

While most of the U.S. froze in the past 

few days, the western United States has been basking in record December heat. 

Atmospheric rivers during much of last week brought devastating flooding in Washington State. Those also brought record warmth.   

Yakima, Washington reached 72 degrees on Wednesday and Richland reached, 71 degrees, the hottest temperature for the entire month of December Several Washington cities had overnight lows in the 50s, breaking records for highest minimum temperatures for the date. 

The next day - Thursday -  it cooled off a little in Washington, but the record highs continued. Those records included 66 in Yakima; 64 in Mountain Home, Idaho; 63 degrees in Twin Falls, Idaho, and 58 in Burns, Oregon. 

On Thursday, it was 63 degrees in Salt Lake City, tying the record for the date. 

Thursday's winter heat extended south into the southwestern U.S. Clayton, New Mexico had a record high of 82 degrees. Las Vegas on Thursday tied their record high of 74. Flagstaff, Arizona tied their record with 68 degrees. 

The long warm spell in the West has an exception. The Central Valley of California has been locked in a chilly fog. It's called the Tule Fog, and is pretty common during the central California valley, which includes Sacramento, Fresno and on south to near Bakersfield. 

But this one has been incredibly persistent. The valley floor has been locked in this fog for more than two weeks.

The Tule fog has kept cities like Sacramento relentlessly cool, with almost no variation in temperature. Readings in Sacramento have stayed between 40 and 47 degrees each of the eight days between December 7 and 13.

Meanwhile, elevations higher than 1,200 above sea level in the foothills near Sacramento have been enjoying sunshine and abnormally high temperatures for December. 

The Tule fog aside, almost the entire West has been quite warm all autumn.  November was the hottest on record in Oregon, Idaho, Nevada and Utah. The rest of the West had one of its three or four hottest Novembers. 

The warmth that's been bottled up in the West is poised to surge eastward. By the time we get to the days leading up to Christmas, it looks like parts of the Desert Southwest, the southern Plains and maybe states near the Gulf of Mexico could see record high temperatures.  

As I mentioned in an earlier post, it will turn somewhat warmer, at least at times here in Vermont starting later this week, but we won't fully get into the balmy pre-Christmas air. 

All Time Maximum Temperatures In Much Of World Set In Recent Decades, Driven By Climate Change

Climatologist Zeke Hausfather analyzed the dates
of all time record highs around the world.
Most of them have been set in recent decades.
Yellow shades are record highs in the past
two or three decades. Green shades are older
record highs still in effect. 

Climate change deniers like to say that global warming can't be happening, since all time record highs in much of the United States were set in the 1930s. 

If the world is warming up, shouldn't the records have been set more recently?

Turns out in most of the world, all time record highs have been set recently. 

A recent analysis by climatologist Zeke Hausfather shows that all time record highs have been falling left and right over the past couple of decades.  Parts of the United States is a bit of an anomaly. 

About 38 percent of Earth's land area has seen all-time record highs in the 2020s. That's much more than any other full decade, and the 2020s are only a little more than half over. 

Roughly 29 percent of land areas set all time records were set in the 2010s, and 10 percent of the all time maximums were in the 2000s.  Four percent were set in the 1990s.

Hausfather acknowledged a few places have long standing record highs. "There are a few regions - central North America, central and southern Africa, western India, etc. - that saw records set earlier, but this is not unexpected due to regional temperature variability (e.g. weather)." he wrote. 

THE 1930S

Odd and extreme intense and persistent summertime heat domes settled over central North America several times in the 1930s. The weather pattern was made even more extreme by natural, but unusual oceanic cycles in the Pacific Ocean. 

A deep drought also settled over the Plains in the 1930s. Poor agricultural practices led to bare soil instead of vegetation, which exacerbated the heat.  Of course when the winds came up, the soil blew away, which is why the era in the Plains was labeled the Dust Bowl.

As for the 1930s, 3.3 of Earth's land mass still have their all time records set in that decade. That's slightly more than all other decades not mentioned above. 

"So the next time someone highlights a small region of the world to say that extreme heat has occurred before, suggest that they might be picking cherries rather than seeing the larger picture - a rapidly warming world on top of regional natural climate variability that is forcing more and more regions to set new all-time records each year, "  Hausfather wrote. 

The climate deniers' trope, "so many 1930s record highs so climate change doesn't exist"  is actually threatened. In recent years, some of those record highs from the 1930s have been threatened, but few have been matched - yet.  I think that will come in a matter of time. 

Speaking of which, all time record highs here  in Vermont are incredibly old compared to the rest of the world. The state's highest temperature was 105 degrees way back on July 4, 1911. In Burlington, the all-time high was 101 degrees on August 11, 1944. 

There's been a bunch of close misses lately that almost broke those records. Those heat waves hit before or after the peak of summer, so we couldn't quite get to the records. 

The most recent example was in June, when North Springfield, Vermont reached 103 degrees. During the same heat wave, it was 99 in Burlington. I still think in a summer sooner rather than later, we will break those all time records in Vermont. 

Across the pond, Plattsburgh, New York, tied its all time record high of 101 degrees. Lebanon, New Hampshire also reached their all time high temperature of 100 degrees on June 24. 

You can read the entirety of Hausfather's analysis in this link. 

DAILY HEAT RECORDS

This isn't just about all-time records, either. Record highs for any particular dates are far exceeding record lows. For the United States. Climate Central last December released an analysis of daily record highs and lows in the United States

Lately we've been outpacing even the 1930s for the number of daily record highs. According to Climate Central:

"The Great Plains Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s marked a period of extraordinary heat extremes in the U.S. During the 1930s, warm season (May-August) daily heat records outpaced daily cold records at rates not seen again until the 2010s. Data so far for the 2020s indicate that rate of record breaking heat in the current decade may exceed those seen during the 1930s." 

The Climate Central analysis said 217 of 247 locations studied had more heat records than cold records between January, 2020 and November 26. 2024.

Twenty-one of those locations set only heat records, and no cold records. Tampa, Florida, was the most remarkable. They had 114 record highs and no record lows. Phoenix, Arizona was almost as bad with 110 record highs and no record lows.

By my count here in Vermont, Burlington has tied or broken 52 record highs between January 1, 2020 and today. During that time, there was only one daily record low. 

For a four or five year time period, the number of record highs and record lows should be roughly the same if there were no climate change.  

This week, we're entering a cool spell, so no record highs are anticipated for the foreseeable future. But, no record lows are coming our way, either.  

You might hear of some record lows in the upcoming week in parts of the eastern United States. That still happens, despite climate change. But inevitably, somewhere in America, sometime soon, another  record warm spell will dwarf the size of this November's chilly weather. 

Next Up: Possible Vermont Record Heat, Little Drought Relief

Some late season flowers hanging on in my St. 
Albans, Vermont gardens. Near record heat coming
up should keep them going, unless the drought
finally does them in. 

We're in the midst of our latest big, honking, dry, sunny high pressure system here in Vermont.

It hasn't rained in a week, which will surely worsen the drought, and no rain is in the forecast until Tuesday. And even then, I'm unimpressed with the rain forecast. 

More on that in a minute, but first we have to get through the weekend. It feels strange to say this but it'll be a hot one. At least for October.

Our big honking high pressure is moving off a bit to our east now, opening flow of very warm, but - of course - dry air from the Midwest and South.

 Some of those areas in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes have had some record high temperatures, and that's coming our way. 

Today and tomorrow will brings us balmy temperatures in the 70s. Then Sunday and Monday get really warm. 

RECORD HIGHS?

In early October, Vermont days should have a pretty crisp feel to them. Highs are usually just a little over 60 degree, and nights get into the 30s and 40s.

Daytime highs coming up will instead be more like early to mid August.  That means we could have some record highs on Sunday and Monday.

It Burlington, the record high Sunday is 83 degrees and on Monday it's 82.  In Montpelier, Sunday's record high is 82 and Monday's is 79.  All those are in reach. 

In St. Johnsbury, the record high Monday is 83, and that could fall, but their record high Sunday is 87, which is insanely warm for October, That record was set in 2023, which brings me to my next point. 

This will be the third year in a row with insanely warm October weather. 

That St. Johnsbury's record high of 87 from 2023 was part of the biggest October heat wave in Vermont history. Burlington reached 86 degrees on October 4, setting the all time record high for the month of October.  Montpelier tied its October high with 84 degrees. Woodstock, Vermont had three days in a row with highs of 86 degrees on October 4-6, 2023.

Last year, the end of the October brought a summer redux. Record highs were set on October 21-23 with highs in the mid and upper 70s. 

Then, Halloween hit, and I think the 2024 costume of the year had to be beachwear. Record high were shattered with Burlington hitting 77 degrees, breaking the days's record high by six degrees. Plattsburgh was even more ridiculous, reaching 83 degrees.  

In 2022, the autumn heat waiting until November. On November 6 that year, Burlington reached 76 degrees, setting a new all time high for the month of November. Summer-like thunderstorms hit that day, too. 

Climate change is altering all our seasons, and autumn is certainly included!

RAIN CHANCES

For a change, the next cold front that will end our October heat wave won't be a dry one. But it won't be an especially wet one, either. 

It will cloud  up Tuesday but still be oddly warm for October. Showers could start in the afternoon, then continue into the evening. Early guesses are we could see roughly half an inch of rain, give or take. That will do almost nothing to help with the drought, but we'll take what we can get.

Also, in the past couple of months, I've seen optimistic forecasts of rain dry up before the weather system actually got here, so I have that bit of pessimism in my brain.

Even if it does rain Tuesday night, we have yet another in our long series of big honky dry high pressure systems that will linger around here for perhaps a week after Tuesday night's cold front, so drought relief does not look like it's in the cards. 

Arizona Heat Deaths Hit During Another Brutal Summer As Hot Spell Spreads Throughout West

Phoenix, Arizona is enduring yet another brutally
hot summer, even by their oven-like standards.
In recent days, the heat has spread 
throughout the western United States. 

Phoenix, Arizona has always been hell on Earth during the summer. 

Last year was by the far the most brutal ever. Phoenix endured its warmest year, longest stretch of consecutive days over 100 degrees, most days that reached 110 degrees, and warmest June, September, October and December.  

Everyone in Phoenix hoped this year would be cooler.   And it is! Kinda, sorta. The only problem is it is still one of the most brutal summers on record in Phoenix. 

It has become horribly routine. Every summer now is beyond what history taught Arizonans.  Climate change has turned the Arizona oven up to broil and beyond.  

That hot brutality is in the stats. This year, every day from July 27 through August 9 was 110 degrees or hotter. It peaked at 118 degrees on August 7, the hottest August day on record in Phoenix. 

On average, 21 days annually in Phoenix reach 110 degrees. As of Friday, this year already had 35 such days. At least it isn't as bad as last year, when they had a record shattering 70 days of 110 degree weather. 

To make it all the more unbearable, the monsoon season which often brings cooling thunderstorms has faltered.   

THE HEAT SPREADS

Over the past few days, it isn't just Phoenix. The heat has spread pretty much everywhere in the West, spreading northward all the way to Washington and beyond. 

In Washington State, the heat is forecast to last at least through Wednesday. Seattle is in the throes of its biggest heat wave of the summer. Highs on Saturday were near 90, and that kind of weather was expected to continue through Monday or Tuesday. 

Thunderstorms have been added to the mix, increasing humidity in some areas, raising the risk of flash flooding in the Sierra Nevada, and threatening new wildfire starts elsewhere due to lightning. 

In L.A County, thunderstorms with dry lighting and little rain set several small wildfires. The risk of more of these types of lighting-related fires through Tuesday, though Saturday brought the highest risk. 

The heat began a few days ago  in much of the West. Several Bay Area cities in California set record highs, including  Santa Rosa and San Rafael both at 100 degrees; Concord, at 101 and Livermore up to 102.  

Portland, Oregon got up to 102 degrees, Friday, breaking the previous record high for the date by four degrees.   Salem, Oregon had a record high of 101 and Eugene broke its daily record high by three degrees as the temperature reached 99 degrees. 

High schools in northern California and Oregon pushed back high school opening season football games into the night so that players and fans would avoid the most dangerous heat. 

DEADLY HEAT

Back in Phoenix, as always with Arizona heat, the hotter it gets, the grimmer the toll. As The Guardian tells us: 

"So far this year, three-quarter of heat related deaths have occurred outside, where temperatures in the most built-up, least shady parts of Phoenix can be 20 or 30 degrees higher on the sidewalk than the NWS's airport weather station. Unhoused people account for 40% of deaths, while substance misuse contributed to two-thirds."

The official death toll in Phoenix through midsummer was an about 30 percent  lower than last year, thanks in part to it being ever so slightly cooler in June and early July than in the record breaker 2024. The city has also improved access and extended hours at cooling centers around Phoenix. 

Still, The Guardian points out that heat deaths have soared in Maricopa County over the past decade or two. (The county encompasses Phoenix, its metropolitan area and many of its suburbs). There were 645 heat deaths in the county in 2023 compared to just 61 in 2014. 

Heat is the biggest weather killer in the U.S. About 2,000 Americans die of heat-related causes annually, and that might well be an undercount. 

AUTUMN IS COMING

It's finally forecast to cool off later this week in Phoenix with highs "only" in the 100 to 103 degree range. Much of the rest of the West should eventually cool down as well by the end of the week. By the end of the week, some cool, light showers might dampen Seattle. 

In the eastern two thirds of the United States, a large and sustained cool spell should keep temperatures comfortable all week, pushing the hot humid air all the way down to along the Gulf Coast. The first frost advisory of the season goes into effect late tonight in northern Minnesota.  

 

Startling, Weird Desert-Like Heat Wave Instantaneously Dries Out Vermont, Rest Of New England, Canada

Temperature sign in downtown Burlington, 
Vermont on Monday says it all. 

 I don't think I've ever seen a weirder heat wave, and such a rapid drying in Vermont.

Temperatures are near record highs, but we've seen that before. Climate change has us breaking high temperature records all the time, it seems. 

This heat wave is different, though.  Usually, summertime hot spells in New England are humid, oppressive, tropical. This time the air is desert dry.   Monday somehow managed to turn out even a bit drier than dusty Sunday.

The temperature peaked at 96 degrees in Burlington Monday. Not a record high because it fell on the anniversary of the city's hottest reading ever, which was 101 degrees in 1944. Montpelier did reach a record high of 91 degrees. Plattsburgh, New York also had 

Monday's dew point was in the mid-50s, reading to a relative humidity of just 27 percent. That's remarkably arid for an August hot spell.  This extreme heat and dry combo will continue today. More on that further down, but I'm still agog at how fast we went from wet to parched.  

I've seen Vermont get this dry in some past droughts, but not nearly this fast. Within just a few days, leaves on some of the trees along Interstate 89, the ones on thin soil above rock ledges, wilted like lettuce left on a hot stovetop. 

Lawns turned from green to brown seemingly overnight. Even the weeds on parts of my property shriveled up and died. 

I couldn't keep up with the watering on Monday.  I'd notice some perennials wilting in the arid heat, the same ones I'd thoroughly soaked the day before.  I'd water them, then move the sprinkler somewhere else. Those  perennials I'd just watered early in the afternoon were thirsty again by sundown.  

The only plant I have that seemed happy was a cactus in one dry, sandy corner of my gardens. Today will be another 

RECORD HIGHS 

Wilting goldenrods and parched ground in St.
Albans, Vermont this morning amid our
developing flash drought. 

Some places did have record highs Monday.  Montpelier reach a record high of 91 degrees, beating the old record of 90 in 2016. Montpelier's records only go back to 1949, which is why that 1944 heat is missing from Montpelier's data. 

Plattsburgh, New York also had record high of 91 degrees Monday. 

I don't know for sure whether the summit of Mount Mansfield set a record high but it must have, having reached an incredible 86 degrees, pretty remarkable for a Vermont weather station at about 4,300 feet in elevation. 

The summit of Mount Washington was 66 degrees at 3 p.m, - very hot for them. 

The heat and drought if anything  has been crushing in southeast Canada. Bathurst, in northern New Brunswick set their all time August record high on Sunday, only to have that record beaten Monday with a high of 99.5 degrees.  It was 95 degrees in both Montreal and Ottawa. 

In Nova Scotia, record highs included 99 at South Ingonish Harbor and 36.2 at Ingonish Beach. So much for a cool, refreshing vacation in the Canadian Maritimes!

Here in Vermont, more record highs will be broken today, as we'll have almost exactly the same weather as yesterday. The record high in Burlington today is 93 degrees, so we should get past that. A heat advisory is still in effect for the Champlain Valley, but really, it will be hot everywhere in the (slightly less) Green Mountain State today. 

The rapid drying should continue. As you might imagine, the forest fire danger in Vermont is very high. That's also true across northern New York, northern New England, southern Quebec. New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland remains very high and dangerous. 

HEAT RELIEF, AND A LITTLE RAIN?

Tomorrow will be the day we're waiting for as that cold front is still expected to come through. It will be one more hot day, especially in southern Vermont, which will see the clouds and showers from the front later in the day. It will also be noticeably more humid for just one day. 

It now looks like many of us will get some rain Wednesday. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is thinking about 75 percent of Vermont will see some rain tomorrow. 

Most of us won't get all that much, and whatever comes out of the sky won't solve our new drought problems. But at least we'll get a break.

Some unlucky towns won't get any rain at all, which is bad news. Some areas will see a nice if brief torrential downpour. In general, the northern Vermont will do a little better than the south.  In the northern half, rainfall for most people (but not everybody) should be in the quarter to half inch range, with a few lucky devils seeing three quarters of an inch or so.

Southern Vermont should get somewhere between practically nothing and a quarter inch. With a few pinpoint spots seeing a little extra. 

All this will help with the dry weather temporarily but will be no cure. As I keep saying, we need several day long, soaking rains, which are not in the cards for now. 

A few of Wednesday's thunderstorms might be on the strong side, but the atmosphere doesn't look like it will support any widespread severe weather.

RETURN TO DRY

Thursday and Friday will give us a break from the heat, but the humidity will be at rock bottom again, so the drying will resume.  It might be briefly warm to hot, but dry Saturday before another cold front arrives Sunday. 

So far, that Sunday cold front does to look that impressive, so don't count on a lot of rain with that. 

The weather pattern is looking like it will shift into a new configuration after this coming weekend. But it's not one that will help with the dry conditions.  It's a change from previous forecasts that indicated it would stay very warm through the end of the month. 

The latest extended forecasts favor mostly cool,  maybe sometimes almost autumn like weather through the end of the month . But with an air flow from the northwest, weather systems might tend to be moisture-starved because the overall air flow would prevent deep moisture from moving up from the south. 

The blast furnace heat will end after today but a drought looks like it might want to continue to develop and deepen.   

Monday Evening Heat Update: Some Impressive Vermont/NY Heat, Humidity Records Already Broken

A person seeks shade beneath one of the sugar maple
trees in Taylor Park in St. Albans, Vermont Monday
afternoon. A time/temperature sign on a nearby
bank building was registering 97 degrees at the time.

 Just a quick Monday evening update on today's impressive heat in the North Country:

As promised, the heat and humidity came blasting in. To some extent, it seemed to over-perform a little bit. 

The most impressive high temperatures I've seen so far was  across the pond at Plattsburgh, where the temperature managed  reach 100 degrees. That's the first time in 50 years the temperature reached the century mark there.

Final figures for today's high temperatures weren't quite in yet, as I wrote this in the late afternoon Monday, hunkered down in my cool basement to get away from the heat. 

 We know that Burlington reached at least 97 degrees, breaking the record high for the date of 96 in 2020. 

Montpelier got to at least 92, breaking the old record high of 90 degrees, St. Johnsbury got to 96, breaking the old record of 93 degrees in 1989. Springfield, Vermont was at 97 degrees.

It was hoped that mixing in the atmosphere would bring down humidity levels temporarily just a little this afternoon. In most places that didn't really happen. Burlington's dew point, a measure of how humid it is, stayed in the mid-70s, which I think is not far from the highest dew point on record there. That led to a dangerous heat index of 109 degrees. 

Tonight's going to be horrible for sleeping, folks.  Lows for most of us will only fall into the 70s by dawn.  Maybe upper 70s to near 80 right around downtown Burlington, where all the asphalt and bricks and concrete will retain the heat. 

The so-called cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont and New York's Adirondacks could get into the upper 60s. That's still uncomfortable by any stretch of the imagination. 

Tomorrow will be roughly as hot as today was. The far north might be a couple degrees "cooler" reaching "only" the low 90s.  A couple towns in the lower Connecticut River Valley might flirt with 100 degrees.

I'll have many more updates on this heat wave in Tuesday morning's post. 

Record High Temperatures in Vermont, Surrounding Areas As Indian Summer Over-Performs

A very orange fall foliage hillside Monday in St. Albans
Vermont, which matched the record high temperatures
much of the region experienced today. 

 If you felt toasty as you were enjoying the lingering Vermont autumn foliage today, you weren't imagining things. 

Warm southwest breezes brought temperatures to record levels in and around the Green Mountain State today, October 21 

Burlington reached 77 degrees, edging out the old record of 76 degrees set in 1995. A final report wasn't in from St. Johnsbury as of early this evening, but they at least tied their record high of 77 set in 1963

Across the pond in Plattsburgh, New York, it was even warmer, soaring to a summer like 81 degrees. That broke the old record for the date of 80 set in 1979.

We've got two more days of balmy weather in Vermont before reality strikes. But don't worry that strike won't be brutal.

Forecasters are going with highs in the low to mid 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. If that comes true, we'll come close to, but probably not break record highs again. 

That not so brutal hit of reality on Thursday and Friday isn't so bad. We expect highs then to be in the 50s and lows in the 30s, which is actually pretty close to average for the season.

It could turn even colder toward Sunday and Monday, but again, if that happens, it will only be somewhat chillier than average (Highs in the 40s to near 50, lows in the 20s to near 30).

Plus, there's preliminary signs we could warm up dramatically again in about a week. 

This year has been remarkably warm so far and we are still on pace to have 2024 become the hottest year on record in Burlington. Unlike in other areas of the nation, though, daily record highs have been a little hard to come by in recent months. 

Monday's 77 degrees is only the second record high we've seen since early March. However, February brought us four daily record highs. It's been a really long time since Burlington recorded a record low for a date.

The last time we did have a record low was when the temperature reached 29 degrees on May 18, 2023. Sine that date, there have been a dozen record highs. 

Heat Waves This Week Are/Will Be One For The Record Books, Especially Out West

The 6 to 10 day outlook favors warmer than normal
temperatures across the Lower 48. This covers July
12-16. The darker the red, the greater the odds
of above normal temperatures. If you want 
cool weather, go to Alaska

The Desert Southwest, Las Vegas, and valleys in California and Oregon away from the coast get hot every summer, but this is ridiculous.   

The East Coast has been baking as well, even up here in Vermont. Long term prospects have heat reigning in most of the nation through most of the rest of the month.

More on that in a bit, but first, the western heat wave is withering and wowing people all over that region.  

RECORD HIGHS

The intense, long lasting heat wave in the west began in earnest Friday and only intensified over the weekend. has begun, and all time record highs in some cities could well fall. Some already did. 

On Friday, Palm Springs, California reached 124 degrees, setting a new all time high there.  Blythe, California reached 123 degrees, tying the record for the hottest reading in the month of July. 

Several other cities reported record high temperatures for the date. Redding, in north central California, reached 119 degrees Saturday. breaking their all-time record for the date. 

  Ukiah, in northwestern California, tied its all time high temperature Saturday, reaching 117 degrees. That also beat the record high for the date by a whopping nine degrees. 

More all time record highs could easily fall in various western cities between today and Thursday.  

 The world record for hottest temperature recorded on Earth is 134 degrees, set in Death Valley back in 1913.

However, experts say that measurement is suspect due to an improper placement of a thermometer. The actual world record is probably actually 130.

That said, there's a decent chance that between today and Thursday, Furnace Creek in Death Valley could reach 130 degrees.    It was 128 degrees in Furnace Creek Saturday, a record high for the date. 

Also, each day today through Thursday has the potential to at least tie the all-time record high in Las Vegas, which is 117 degrees. 

All heat waves are dangerous, but this one has meteorologists really sounding the alarm.

"It cannot be stressed enough that is is an exceptionally dangerous and lethal situation....It may not seem so if you live near the coast, but an event of this scale, magnitude and longevity will likely rival anything we've seen in the last 18 years for inland areas," wrote the National Weather Service office in San Francisco. 

The hot conditions are extending even up into the Sierra Nevada mountains, which are better known for epic snowstorms, not heat waves.  A rare heat advisory is in effect through Friday for areas around Lake Tahoe.  

A more extended outlook covering July 14-20
doesn't really release the nation from hot weather.
Best odds of hot weather are in the Northern Rockies
with high chances across most of the nation's
northern tier, and Florida. 

Officials are warning of all kinds of deep trouble associated with the heat wave, including hot weather related deaths, rolling blackouts and wildfires. Two dozen wildfires were already burning in California as of Friday. 

EASTERN/NATIONAL HEAT

Meanwhile, it's hot in the East, too.  Raleigh, North Carolina on Friday reached 106 degrees, setting a new mark for the all time hottest temperature on record there. Temperatures of 100 degrees reached as far north as Maryland Friday.  

The National Weather Service Heat Risk map forecasts large areas of major and extreme heat impacts in the western third of the United States through at least next Friday. On the East Coast, widespread major impacts are forecast through Tuesday. 

After that, the heat in the East should temporarily ease in the second half of the week before possibly re-surging again 

Major impacts means.the heat endangers everyone who has not adequate access to cool rooms and hydration.  Extreme impacts are considered rare and will impact health systems, heat-sensitive industry and infrastructure.  

As we well know, the heat has invaded Vermont.  It reached 90 degrees both Thursday and Friday in Burlington, so now the total number of 90 degree days so far this year is seven - about average for an entire summer.

There's a low, but not zero chance Burlington could make it to 90 degrees again today, and a somewhat better chance of achieving that level Monday and Tuesday. Rain and clouds should hold temperatures down toward Wednesday (But that rain might cause other trouble. More on that in another post later today).

The outlook beyond this coming week in terms of heat is not great here in Vermont, or almost anywhere else in the nation for that matter.  Long range forecasts - always somewhat iffy I know - suggest the two heat domes in the West and East might sort of merge to make the whole nation roast starting in about a week.

The trend toward above normal temperatures in mid-July comes at the climatological peak of summer, so any hot spells would be especially so.

As a reminder, we know that heat waves happen every summer. The problem is the new extremes we've been seeing in recent years in the United States and globally.  Climate change is tilting the odds of turning regular old heat waves into torturous, dangerous new all time record highs. 

The hotter it gets, the the more persistent the heat, the more dangerous it gets. Climate change increases the odds that we'll get summers like the one that seems to be underway right now. 

Not every summer going forward will be super hot. But the general trend because of our greenhouse gas emissions will continue to be more and more all-time record heat. 

That's especially dangerous in areas where heat waves might not be as historically common. If it's 100 degrees in Phoenix, that's bad, but for them, manageable. Up here in the Great No Longer So White North, it's a recipe for disaster. 

 

Thaw Timing Is Hideous For Vermont Ski Resorts

Last bits of snow melting away in St. Albans, Vermont
Thursday amid springlike sunshine and temperatures
around 50 degrees. The thaw will intensify
today and Saturday, bad news for winter sports. 

 The big February warm spell we're having in Vermont is not only bad for ice fishing, as I mentioned yesterday. 

It's also terrible timing for Vermont's ski industry. 

We're heading into Presidents week, the holiday time in mid-February that marks the peak of the ski season. It's essentially the Black Friday of the ski industry. 

Traditionally, bases on ski slopes are at or approaching their deepest about now.  What was once the usual series of winter storms should have piled up natural snow to at least create the icing on the cake. 

Not this year.  

Higher elevation towns like Greensboro and Shrewsbury had less than a foot of snow on the ground. In some Februaries, snow depth in these towns is three feet or more.  

Valleys are even worse. 

Even as the thaw was just starting in earnest Thursday, there was absolutely no snow in most of the  Champlain and lower Connecticut valleys.  My property in St. Albans is only partly covered with snow now. Amid the warmth, sunshine and light winds Thursday, I did a little brush clearing wearing a black t-shirt, with no jacket or hoodie. 

Any low elevation cross country ski destination is screwed, as they pretty much have been all winter. 

The Catamount Outdoor Family Center in Williston, Vermont was weathering the lack of snow somewhat because until Thursday,  trails were firm enough for fat bikes. But as temperatures warmed into the upper 40s, the recreation center was warning those bike enthusiasts: "If you're leaving a track, please turn back."

So, Catamount will need to wait for colder weather to firm up the trails, or preferably, a snowstorm, the prospects of which are iffy at the moment. 

SPRING CONDITIONS

In Burlington, snowfall this season has amounted to 27.9 inches through Thursday morning. If this had been an average winter, there should have been about 52 inches by now. No new snow is in the forecast until Monday at the earliest, and even then, if Burlington does get anything it will be basically flurries, at least as forecasts indicate now. 

Back up in the mountains, snow making is even problematic now. Temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing at times even at summit level. 

 Through Wednesday, the snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield had been stuck at 48 inches since  January 28. The depth retreated to 47 inches on Thursday, below the normal for the date of 55 inches.

The snow depth up there will continue to fall further and further behind average for the next few days. 

 The weather forecast statewide continues to call for near record high temperatures today and Saturday.  Most everyone will be in the 40s today, with low 50s in some of the warmer valleys. 

The heat wave should peak on Saturday. There might be some sunshine in the morning, and that could help boost temperatures even more if it lingers long enough. Even with increasing clouds most valleys should see highs exceed 50 degrees. It's possible a few readings near 60 degree could pop up in the southeast corner of the state.

We'll probably have a few record highs get re-written Saturday. Especially in Burlington, with that strangely cool current record high of 46 degrees in Burlington. 

It'll be so springlike that the warmth could add a little instability to the air, like in the warm season. That could lead to a rumble or two of thunder in southern Vermont when the showers move in during the afternoon. 

It's not like you can't go skiing and riding in Vermont over the next few days. It's just that it will be spring conditions in many areas. At least you won't freeze your butt off, right?

Last year was arguably worse. 

Every day except one in at ten-day stretch ending February 16, 2023  was in the 40s. February 15 and 16 last year had record  highs of 57 and 56. 

Climate change has made this type of winter warm spell more likely, so get used to it. Some winters will still be cold and snowy going forward, but the odds are tilted toward more thaws. The deep winter snows of the 1960s and 1970s in Vermont are a thing of the past, except for very rare exceptions here and there. 

BACK TO WINTER?

There's still a few reasons for hope if you are a winter enthusiast and aren't particularly interested in an early spring. 

Long range forecast continue to call for below normal temperatures here in Vermont starting in about a week. And it looks like that chill will probably last longer than that brief interlude of winter cold in mid-January. 

True, precipitation looks to be below normal, but under a cold regime, anything that comes out of the sky would probably be snow. Bad news for snow lovers though: We had questions about whether a storm would come close enough to give us a decent dump of snow Monday night and Tuesday. 

The answer to that question appears to be nope.  Most indications are that storm will pass by too far south to give Vermont much of anything. If any snow does squeeze out of this, it would be light and mostly down in southern parts of the state.

History is sort, of kind of. on winter's side too.  I'm going to take you back to February and March, 2017.

On February 25, 2017, the temperature reached 72 degrees in Burlington, breaking the record high for the month by a whopping nine degrees. Which is absolutely insane. I can't think of another example of a monthly record being set by that wide a margin. 

But a few weeks later, the Pi Day Blizzard hit on March 14, dumping 30.4 inches of snow on Burlington - the city's second biggest snowstorm on record. 

All this is to say, don't celebrate spring just yet. 

Remnants Of California Storm To Give Vermont/New England Big Thaw, Ice Safety Issues Record Highs Possible

The already scant snow cover on my St. Albans, Vermont
property will take another hit as possibly record 
high temperatures move in for the coming few days.

 

UPDATE: 

The warmth over-performed in the Champlain Valley today as the high in Burlington got up to 50 degrees.

That's just one degree shy of the record of 51 degrees set in 1925.

Sunshine was able to warm the ground due to an unseasonable lack of snow cover, which contributed to the balmy day.

The warm sunshine and light winds allowed me to work out in my yard clearing brush for a couple hours while clad in a t-shirt, but no jacket or sweat shirt or hoodie.

What I wrote this morning still holds, but I will provide an update on this "heat wave" in a post I will release Friday morning. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

The hangover from California's immense storm continues as more hillsides gave way under the onslaught of lingering downpours on Wednesday. 

The death toll has risen to nine, but the storm is finally moving on to other parts of the United States, giving California a break. 

The storm won't cause nearly the effects as it did in California, but it will cause snow in the northern Plains. It's also creating a low, but not zero chance of a tornado or two in northern Illinois today. That's awfully far north for any kind of twister threat for so early in the season.

For us, the former California storm will bring us another big thaw, and possibly record high temperature.

It starts today with readings in many parts of Vermont in the low to mid 40s, compared to normal highs roughly in the 25 to 30 degree range. 

 Depending upon how things go, we might see some record highs by Friday or Saturday. 

I'm rating the chances of record highs Friday as low, as it would have to get to 53 in Burlington, 49 in Montpelier and 48 in St. Johnsbury to tie the record for the date.  Temperatures could get close to those temperatures Friday afternoon. 

The record high could easily fall on Saturday in Burlington due to a quirk. For some reason, Saturday has the lowest record high of any date of the year, 46 set in 2001. Most record highs this time of year are in the low to mid 50s. 

The forecast high on Saturday in Burlington is 51 degrees.  We might see a little rain especially later Saturday, but nothing heavy. 

This new thaw is going to create more ice safety issues for people who are into ice fishing or skating or walking on ponds and lakes. 

It's been yet another warm winter, so much like last year, ice isn't particularly thick on any pond or lake in Vermont. Lake Champlain is mostly open, though ice covers bays and protected areas. 

That's in large part to another round of very warm nights.  Reading in the Champlain Valley are expected to rise above freezing this morning and stay above 32 degrees until Sunday night. 

South winds are also forecast to pick up today through Saturday. That could cause ice that you think is safe on Lake Champlain to break off and float away.  

Ice fishing is not recommended. Sadly, the annual Islands Ice Fishing Derby that had been scheduled for this upcoming weekend has been canceled due to thin ice and the expected thaw. 

This is the second year in a row that ice fishing derby had to be canceled.  It was abruptly called off last February, too, due to unsafe ice. 

That bad ice can be deadly. Last February, three people died after falling through thawing Lake Champlain ice while fishing. 

Even if it does get below freezing elsewhere in Vermont during the coming warm stretch, we're going to see a lot of thawing on pond and lake ice. 

Lake ice in Vermont used to always be pretty reliable by February. I guess not anymore. 

WINTER AHEAD?

For those of you who are still pining for winter, it still looks like it will gradually turn cooler next week, with temperatures possibly ending up a little below normal by much of next week. 

Computer models are also disagreeing on a possible snowfall next Tuesday.  Some models bring a storm far enough to give Vermont a decent snowstorm, while others keep the storm well to the south, missing us entirely.

I guess stay tuned on that one.  . 

After Record Warmth, Vermont to Descend Into Ugly, Icy, Awful Mess

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington. By Friday afternoon,
some areas (in red) could have a quarter inch or more
accumulation of ice. Travel will be difficult. 

 I guess we're continuing on with the weird weather in Vermont.  We had record highs on Wednesday, and now we're in for an ice storm, at least in parts of the state. Flooding could be an issue in a few spots, too. And temperatures will not follow the "rules" once again for the next few days. 

So let's take this one step at a time:

RECORD HIGHS

As noted yesterday, Burlington reached 57 degrees, which was a record high for the date. During the day, central and eastern Vermont stayed in the 40s. But strong downslope winds off the Green Mountains developed last evening.

That sinking air compressed and warmed. So some areas late last night had a surprise heat wave. For instance, those downslope winds in Montpelier abruptly  pushed temperatures from 42 degrees at 9 p.m. to  a record high of 56 degrees at 10 p.m. 

Those winds kept the temperature as high as 60 degrees around 10 p.m. in Rutland, too. 

Overall, a few dozen record high temperatures were reported Wednesday from Ohio to southern Quebec and Ontario.

For us here in Vermont, those warm times are just about over.

TODAY

A transition day, and not quite as nice as yesterday. Still warm for the season, though, especially this morning. 

Those late night record highs have pulled back and temperatures were in the 40s across much of Vermont as of 9 a.m. That's still way above normal, and trending a little higher than forecast. That might - or might not - be a glimmer of good news for tonight and tomorrow, we'll see. 

Clouds will hang tough today, and by late afternoon, there could be a few sprinkles of rain or sleet here and there. That won't affect the drive home from work late this afternoon and this evening. It'll still be above freezing, and anything that falls from the sky won't amount to much. 

It's tonight and Friday where we run into trouble. 

TONIGHT: 

It's possible we could have scenes like this in parts of 
northwestern Vermont tomorrow as enough ice
could accumulate on vulnerable trees to make 
them bend or break. This photo is the aftermath
of an ice storm in Alburgh, Vermont, January, 2020

The approaching storm and cold front seems to have a lot more moisture to work with for us than first thought, as the National Weather Service office in South Burlington notes. Instead of a quarter to a third of an inch of rain or water equivalent, it now looks like we're on for a half inch to as much as a little over an inch. 

This will be enough to cause some worries about minor flooding. Rivers that still have ice on them, like the Missisquoi, could have some ice jams. 

But that's not the main concern. 

As forecasts stand now, low level cold air will come in first, transition rain this evening to sleet and freezing rain overnight. This icy mess would start in northern New York late this evening and hit the Champlain Valley a little after midnight. 

The one glimmer of hope is that since temperatures are running a little warmer than predicted now, that could last well into the night, delaying the onset of freezing rain. Which would be good since the less freezing rain we see, the better. 

I wouldn't hang my hat on that hope for a warmer night, however. 

The mixed precipitation, or rain the further south and east you go, will come down fairly  hard at times. There might even be some rumbles of thunder mixed in there before dawn. 

FRIDAY

Ugh!!!! If current forecasts hold, freezing rain and sleet, and maybe a little snow will be falling across most of central and northern Vermont before, during and after the morning rush hour.

Roads will be icy, and probably trending worse as temperatures continue to fall. For the third Friday in a row, temperatures will fall all day, and not rise in the afternoon and evening like they're supposed to.

It might not get cold enough for much ice in central and eastern Vermont until mid-morning. If that happens, good for them. The Champlain Valley at this point looks to be the most hopeless in terms of ice.

We're almost guaranteed a traffic mess, delays, school closings and what not. Again, if current forecasts come true, this will be the ickiest icy mess of the winter so far. The ice is most likely to accumulate along and north of a Middlebury to St. Johnsbury line. 

Far southern Vermont should largely escape this with mostly rain, with just a little sleet, freezing rain and snow in the late morning and afternoon.

In parts of northwestern Vermont enough ice might freeze onto trees and power lines to cause a few power outages. Usually, you start to see trouble when ice is a quarter inch thick, and we should come close to that bin many areas. Big time problems often start when the ice is a half inch thick or more. At this point, I don't see it getting that bad, but there's always the chance this storm could over perform.

The mix of freezing rain and sleet should transition to snow as temperatures continue to drop through the day. 

Roads will remain icy all day, as light snow continues in many areas. It'll tend to taper off toward evening. 

SATURDAY

After a cold start, with temperatures in the single number, temperatures will warm into the low 30s, melting some of the ice in the sunny spots. We'll have another "wrong way" temperature trend Saturday night, as temperatures dip in the evening, then start to rise overnight. 

SUNDAY

Yay! We melt more ice with temperatures in the low 40s. 

CAVEATS:

Freezing rain and sleet is notoriously hard to predict. Expect some changes in the forecast between now and Friday morning. Expect some surprises, too. Some areas could see much less ice than forecast, other areas cold see more. It's kind of pot luck.  Just be ready for trouble Friday morning, to be on the safe side.

If you can make plans to work from home Friday, do that. 

Also, for those of you in northwestern Vermont, charge your devices this evening and have LED candles and flashlights at the ready in case any power failures do develop.

Record Warmth Parts Of Vermont Today But Return To Winter Ugliness Returning

My yard in St. Albans, Vermont showing the effects of 
record warmth today. Yesterday is was still partly 
snow covered. Not so this afternoon.

Especially for those of you in western Vermont, if you thought today was incredibly mild, you were right.  

Temperatures reached to record levels. In Burlington, it got to 57 degrees on Wednesday, which beat the old record high of 54 set in 2006.

Rutland got up to 60 degrees and Bennington was at 61. I don't know if those were records, but they had to be at least close.

Eastern Vermont was a tad cooler, with temperatures in the 40s. That's quite balmy for this time of year, but not in record territory. 

Like many parts of the year, February has had some warm temperature extremes in Vermont in recent years under the influence of climate change. 

In Burlington, for instance, the warmest it had ever gotten in February prior to 2017 was 61 degrees. But in 2017, Burlington got up to a whopping 72 degrees. I've never seen a monthly record broken by that large a margin.

The following year, 2018, Burlington got up to 69 degrees, which would have been a major monthly record if not for the year before. But Montpelier in February, 2018 reached 70 degrees, again by far its highest recorded temperature in February.

We've had plenty of other warm February moments lately. It got up to 57 degrees in Burlington last February. In 2016 it got to at least 50 degrees six times during February. Four of the top 10 warmest Februaries in Burlington have occurred since 2012,.

But, as you might suspect, don't get used to today's toasty weather.  We are still firmly in winter, after all.  Just put the shorts and t-shirts away and wait for real spring to get here. Whenever that happens. 

Thursday will still be warmer than average, but noticeably colder, with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.

As a cold front comes in Thursday night we face a spell of mixed precipitation, then sharply falling temperatures Friday.

We'll have another brief spurt of fairly mild weather Sunday and Monday but then a long spell of near or somewhat cooler than normal weather will start next Tuesday.

I'll have more on this in Thursday morning's post 

Wild Weather Pattern To Bring Record Warmth To Vermont, Rest Of Northeast, Too

The six to 10 day outlook through November 12 
shows a sharp contrast between a toasty east and frigid
west. Here in New England, record high temperatures
are forecast late this week and into the weekend. 

It's been remarkably sunny and warm in late October and as November opened, aside from one cloudy day Tuesday. 

The sun and warmth are about to ramp up into record territory here in Vermont in the coming days. 

The next few days will feature highs in the 60s to near 70, with the warmest day on Saturday. The high temperatures on Saturday actually have a shot at tying or breaking the all time record for hottest November day. 

Typically in a Vermont November, it's cloudy, chilly and damp, with cold breezes, and even colder rain or snow showers. Highs this time of year should be within a couple degrees either side of 50.

This is far from typical November weather. 

There's already been record warmth in the Midwest, and that air is headed our way.  In North Dakota, often a frigid place by November, it was 77 degrees in Bismarck yesterday. Minneapolis reached 76 degrees on Wednesday, besting the previous record high of 72. Mobridge, South Dakota hit 80 degrees, making it the hottest November day on record there. 

The pattern that's setting up is bringing winter to the western United States and summer to the East. At least for a few days. In between, severe weather and tornadoes, more typical of spring that autumn, are forecast to rake parts of Texas and Oklahoma today. 

Between now and Sunday, the epicenter of the warmth, relative to average anyway, is setting up in New England. That's why the record high temperatures are in the forecast. 

The all-time highest temperature for November in Burlington is 75 degrees, set in 1948 and 1950.  The forecast high in Burlington Saturday is 73 degrees, which would break the record high for the date of 72 degrees.

I've noticed that since late October, many of these balmy, sunny days have been coming in a little warmer than forecast.  Given that trend, it's possible we could break the month's record. One thing that could prevent that all time record is strengthening southwest winds on Saturday that could bring just a touch of cooler air off of Lake Champlain. 

Saturday night, you'll want to leave some windows open and you might almost be tempted to reach for the air conditioner. Overnight "lows" in the Champlain Valley will be in the low 60s, which is normal for July.  Other areas of Vermont will stay in the toasty 50s. 

A weakening cold front will arrive Sunday with some showers, but it will stay mild through Monday. Another front will bring a brief shot of chilly air to us next Tuesday and Wednesday, and we might even see a day or two of very slightly below normal temperatures.

But it will stay sunny through that brief cool period, contributing to this very oddly bright November. 

The weather pattern looks to say warm and dry overall into the middle of the month. 

Before you get too smug, we all know this oddly warm, sunny November weather will eventually be taken away seemingly in an instant.  There's several examples of November weather whiplash, in which record early November warmth is followed by record wintry cold. 

For instance, on November 6, 1938, the temperature in Burlington reached 74 degrees, which at the time was the all time hottest November reading. By November 26 of that year, the temperature dropped to minus 3, which remains the coldest November reading on record in Burlington.

In 1996, it was 74 degrees on November 8, but down to 10 above just six days later. In 1989, it was 73 degrees on the 16th, the warmest for so late in the season. This was followed by a temperature of 6 above just a week later, and we ended up with the coldest December on record that year.

You get the idea. 

We won't necessarily go from one extreme to the next in this go-around of early November warmth, but do enjoy it. You won't see weather like this again, probably at least until April.

New England Stays Cool For Now, But Some Adjustments Coming

For what it's worth, NOAA's Climate Prediction 
Center brings likely above normal temperatures
to New England around July 16-22 after 
what has been a relatively cool-ish summer so far.

 We've got another cool weekend going, with temperatures this bright Saturday running about 10 degrees cooler than "normal" for this time of year.

It got down to at least 37 degrees this morning in Saranac Lake, New York, and 43 degrees in the Northeast Kingdom hamlet of Gallup Mills. Today's highs will only make it to the low 70s for most of us. Bright sunshine will take any edge off the chill, for those sensitive to cool July weather.  

We'll continue to more or less avoid hot weather, but slow adjustments are coming that might, maybe give us a somewhat hotter, more humid second half of July. 

A persistent "heat dome" of high pressure has kept things hot across most of nation except the Northwest and Northeast, which have been outside this area of high pressure. The heat dome has been sloshing back and forth a little, intensifying the heat for awhile in say, parts of the Rockies and High Plains, then shifting it back again toward the Midwest and South. Rinse and repeat.

Since this hot high pressure in the atmosphere has never made it to the East Coast, we've been left with a mostly coolish flow of air from the northwest as we sit north and east of the hot air core.

This state of affairs will continue, but as I said, subtle changes are coming.  I don't see this dome of hot air establishing itself over us anytime soon.  But there are signs that we will be close enough to that terrible air to change our weather for the second half of the month. A little. 

The usual caveats apply.  Long range forecasts are iffy.  The computer models aren't really in agreement with everything, either. They differ on where the center of the heat will be, the orientation of the flow of air north and east of this heat dome, and how strong that heat will be.

Right now, what I'm giving you isn't much more than a parlor game for weather geeks. But it will still be interesting how this plays out for the second half of July. 

The consensus seems to be that the heat dome in the country's middle will intensify even more as we head into later next week and perhaps the week after. If worst case scenarios come true, there could be some all time record highs set somewhere in the Midwest, and perhaps South. 

I have to wonder with the heat in central North America getting more expansive, could it be easier for us in Vermont to get some squirts of hot, humid air between the parade of cold fronts coming down from Canada?

And if that happens, will there be more showers and possibly severe storms? After all, rough storminess almost always rides along the northern edges of these terrible heat domes. We don't know for sure, as we can't anticipate how clusters of storms will behave much more than two or three days out. 

We do know that after our cool weekend, Monday will turn increasingly warm and humid. Nothing extreme, but you'll feel it, compared to this weekend. Another cold front Tuesday could trigger showers and storms. It's possible, but certainly no slam dunk, that a few storms Tuesday could get strong.  It depends on how winds, clouds and instability develop. We'll get a better handle on this by Monday. 

The northwest flow brings in cooler air for the middle of next week, but with another asterisk. High pressure is also intensifying in the western Atlantic, as it often does this time of year. That tends to slow the cold fronts coming down from Canada and also tries to deflect them away from us a bit. 

Though we won't get much rain, the cold front and trough of low pressure will be slow to leave after Tuesday, leaving us with a risk of showers Wednesday and to a lesser extent Thursday.

The air coming in after Tuesday is on the cool side for this time of year, but as cool as we're getting today. So it will be relatively close to normal next week.

For what it's worth, the American model in particular has us turning warmer and more humid starting about a week from now and then continuing for about a week. It also depicts several batches of showers and storms coming through during that period. 

Overall, the European model doesn't seem to keep us quite as consistently warm and humid in about a week, and continues our familiar northwest flow.  That would keep us cooler and drier, relatively speaking. Both models agree we in New England won't get into the super hot air further to our west. We shall see! 

If it does warm up and get more humid, there's no way to know how long that might last. The persistent "heat dome" over the United States this summer could always drift toward the west again, re-establishing our nice, cool summer regime.