After Record Warmth, Vermont to Descend Into Ugly, Icy, Awful Mess

The latest ice forecast map from the National Weather
Service office in South Burlington. By Friday afternoon,
some areas (in red) could have a quarter inch or more
accumulation of ice. Travel will be difficult. 

 I guess we're continuing on with the weird weather in Vermont.  We had record highs on Wednesday, and now we're in for an ice storm, at least in parts of the state. Flooding could be an issue in a few spots, too. And temperatures will not follow the "rules" once again for the next few days. 

So let's take this one step at a time:

RECORD HIGHS

As noted yesterday, Burlington reached 57 degrees, which was a record high for the date. During the day, central and eastern Vermont stayed in the 40s. But strong downslope winds off the Green Mountains developed last evening.

That sinking air compressed and warmed. So some areas late last night had a surprise heat wave. For instance, those downslope winds in Montpelier abruptly  pushed temperatures from 42 degrees at 9 p.m. to  a record high of 56 degrees at 10 p.m. 

Those winds kept the temperature as high as 60 degrees around 10 p.m. in Rutland, too. 

Overall, a few dozen record high temperatures were reported Wednesday from Ohio to southern Quebec and Ontario.

For us here in Vermont, those warm times are just about over.

TODAY

A transition day, and not quite as nice as yesterday. Still warm for the season, though, especially this morning. 

Those late night record highs have pulled back and temperatures were in the 40s across much of Vermont as of 9 a.m. That's still way above normal, and trending a little higher than forecast. That might - or might not - be a glimmer of good news for tonight and tomorrow, we'll see. 

Clouds will hang tough today, and by late afternoon, there could be a few sprinkles of rain or sleet here and there. That won't affect the drive home from work late this afternoon and this evening. It'll still be above freezing, and anything that falls from the sky won't amount to much. 

It's tonight and Friday where we run into trouble. 

TONIGHT: 

It's possible we could have scenes like this in parts of 
northwestern Vermont tomorrow as enough ice
could accumulate on vulnerable trees to make 
them bend or break. This photo is the aftermath
of an ice storm in Alburgh, Vermont, January, 2020

The approaching storm and cold front seems to have a lot more moisture to work with for us than first thought, as the National Weather Service office in South Burlington notes. Instead of a quarter to a third of an inch of rain or water equivalent, it now looks like we're on for a half inch to as much as a little over an inch. 

This will be enough to cause some worries about minor flooding. Rivers that still have ice on them, like the Missisquoi, could have some ice jams. 

But that's not the main concern. 

As forecasts stand now, low level cold air will come in first, transition rain this evening to sleet and freezing rain overnight. This icy mess would start in northern New York late this evening and hit the Champlain Valley a little after midnight. 

The one glimmer of hope is that since temperatures are running a little warmer than predicted now, that could last well into the night, delaying the onset of freezing rain. Which would be good since the less freezing rain we see, the better. 

I wouldn't hang my hat on that hope for a warmer night, however. 

The mixed precipitation, or rain the further south and east you go, will come down fairly  hard at times. There might even be some rumbles of thunder mixed in there before dawn. 

FRIDAY

Ugh!!!! If current forecasts hold, freezing rain and sleet, and maybe a little snow will be falling across most of central and northern Vermont before, during and after the morning rush hour.

Roads will be icy, and probably trending worse as temperatures continue to fall. For the third Friday in a row, temperatures will fall all day, and not rise in the afternoon and evening like they're supposed to.

It might not get cold enough for much ice in central and eastern Vermont until mid-morning. If that happens, good for them. The Champlain Valley at this point looks to be the most hopeless in terms of ice.

We're almost guaranteed a traffic mess, delays, school closings and what not. Again, if current forecasts come true, this will be the ickiest icy mess of the winter so far. The ice is most likely to accumulate along and north of a Middlebury to St. Johnsbury line. 

Far southern Vermont should largely escape this with mostly rain, with just a little sleet, freezing rain and snow in the late morning and afternoon.

In parts of northwestern Vermont enough ice might freeze onto trees and power lines to cause a few power outages. Usually, you start to see trouble when ice is a quarter inch thick, and we should come close to that bin many areas. Big time problems often start when the ice is a half inch thick or more. At this point, I don't see it getting that bad, but there's always the chance this storm could over perform.

The mix of freezing rain and sleet should transition to snow as temperatures continue to drop through the day. 

Roads will remain icy all day, as light snow continues in many areas. It'll tend to taper off toward evening. 

SATURDAY

After a cold start, with temperatures in the single number, temperatures will warm into the low 30s, melting some of the ice in the sunny spots. We'll have another "wrong way" temperature trend Saturday night, as temperatures dip in the evening, then start to rise overnight. 

SUNDAY

Yay! We melt more ice with temperatures in the low 40s. 

CAVEATS:

Freezing rain and sleet is notoriously hard to predict. Expect some changes in the forecast between now and Friday morning. Expect some surprises, too. Some areas could see much less ice than forecast, other areas cold see more. It's kind of pot luck.  Just be ready for trouble Friday morning, to be on the safe side.

If you can make plans to work from home Friday, do that. 

Also, for those of you in northwestern Vermont, charge your devices this evening and have LED candles and flashlights at the ready in case any power failures do develop.