Wednesday Morning Update: A Weird Stormy Nation. Snow/Sleet To Hit Us In Vermont

A very colorful National Weather Service map means
a very stormy day for the U.S. All those pinks and
reds from Oregon to Maine are winter storm
and blizzard warnings. 

 As advertised, it's as stormy and weird in the U.S. as it can get as a strange weather pattern of very cold air in the Southwest, with unprecedented warm to hot air in the Southeast has become established. 

That kind of huge contrast always leads to storminess and that's definitely happening now. Vermont update is below, but I have to pause and look at how bizarre the weather is once again in the United States. 

STORMY, WEIRD NATION

The weather set up was  already getting volatile, judging from the strong storms and likely tornado in Mercer County, New Jersey on Tuesday that damaged a number of buildings. The National Weather Service will make a determination later today whether to confirm the storm as a twister.

A continuous line of winter storm warnings extends from eastern Nevada to coastal Maine, at least if you include the Canadian version of a winter storm warning over southern Ontario and Quebec. 

Blizzard warnings are embedded in that band in parts of Wyoming, the Dakotas and Minnesota. 

An  ice storm is still on deck in a long narrow strip from central Iowa, through the southern parts of Illinois, Michigan and Ontario, Canada and into western New York. 

Some severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado might occur today in parts of Oklahoma and Missouri, though luckily this does not look like it will be an intense outbreak. 

In California, Arizona and Nevada, high winds will buffet the region to make the unusually cold air feel even chillier. A cold storm in southern California in the coming days will produce some lowland flooding, and snow as low as 1,000 feet above sea level. That means the famous Hollywood sign could be covered in snow. People there have not seen snow that low in decades.

A rare blizzard warning is up for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Up to a foot of snow could fall at the 2,000 foot level, which is, again, incredibly low. Up to five feet of snow could pile up in the summits above 4,000 feet by Monday. I believe this is the first ever blizzard warning issued by the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, a huge area of the Southeast is set for all time record high temperatures for February. Readings of 80 degrees or above are forecast Thursday as far north as Washington DC.

VERMONT UPDATE

The Wednesday morning updated snowfall prediction map
from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington,
Areas north of Route 4 are expecting a solid 6-12 inches.
Less in southern Vermont due to a mix with sleet. 

With all these contrasts and that volatility, it's inevitable that we'll have a storm.  It's been advertised all week, and it does arrive tonight. 

The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning roughly north of Route 4.  A winter weather advisory is up along and south of Route 4. As expected, we've seen some minor adjustments in the snow totals. It looks like most places north of Route 4 can expect a solid 6 to 12 inches out of this. 

Areas to the south will see a bunch of sleet mix in especially as we had toward dawn tomorrow. That will keep accumulates down to four or five inches. 

On the bright side, the layer of warm air aloft that's producing the mixed precipitation is thick. That means rain will re-freeze on the way down to become sleet. There won't be much freezing rain, which is liquid and freezes on contact into a glaze when it hits the surface. 

It looks like the snow will start in southwestern Vermont at roughly 7 p.m. tonight, spread into central Vermont by around 9 p.m. and cover the north between 10 p.m. and midnight. 

The first wave of snow, and southern sleet will be the heaviest, coming through mostly between midnight and dawn Thursday.  A rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question during this. It will be challenging on the roads tomorrow morning, so I expect a lot of school closings and delays and trouble on the highways. 

I still see  a risk of a forecast bust with this. If the warm air aloft pushes further north than expected - which might happen - the heavier sleet would get further north into at least central Vermont, too. 

Most of Thursday will be in a sort of lull with light snow and sleet falling most of the day, but not amounting to a huge amount. The sleet mix looks like it might make it at least as far north as Route 2. 

Another wave of precipitation, not as big as the first, will come through later Thursday and Thursday night. This wave could have a little freezing rain with it in southern Vermont.  Northern Vermont will probably get another few inches of snow,  Some sleet might mix in across parts of the north Thursday evening, but that will trend more toward snow overnight. 

This storm will also end a remarkable 18 consecutive February days in Burlington that got above freezing. (Though it was below 32 degrees most of Wednesday, it was in the mid-30s just after midnight).

You'll be digging out in some real cold air on Friday. Highs will only be in the low teens with temperatures below zero in most places Friday night and early Saturday. 

A small storm will fling a few snowflakes at us amid milder temperatures Sunday. Another larger, messy storm seems likely Monday night and Tuesday.