I'm Shocked That So Far, Forecasters Aren't Really Backing Off Of Northeast Soaker Forecast

Rainfall forecasts with the upcoming storm remain
encouragingly consistent. Heaviest rain is 
forecast for southern Vermont, where it's needed most.
Up to two inches south, less than an inch Northeast.

 This is increasingly looking like this will be "the one."  

By that I mean for once, the forecasts have remained steady.  There's very little change to the idea that the drought-stricken Northeast is about to get a nice soaking rain. 

It won't be nearly enough to erase the drought. Some areas would need a good ten inches of rain to do that, and we're only talking about an inch of rain, two at the very most with this one. 

But unlike past hoped-for rains this autumn, this one still looks like it's going to come to pass.

Frankly his takes some getting used to, talking about a noticeable storm headed our way. That hasn't happened in ages, it seems. Not that I'm complaining.

If there's any trends in the forecast, they're minor. Things have trended a little colder to the southwest of the storm track. To the point where a winter storm watch has been issued for northeastern Pennsylvania. Up to a foot of snow could come down in some high elevations of the Poconos.

But moisture is moisture. Snow would tamp down brush and wildfires at least as well as a soaking rain, right?

Folks from New Jersey to New Hampshire will be dancing in the rain as they watch the smoke from these fires dissipate under the rainy overcast tomorrow

VERMONT FORECAST

Up here in Vermont, the forecast for this storm has trended a wee bit warmer. That means only the highest elevations will see any real snow, at least the way it looks now. 

Tail end lighter precipitation Friday night through Sunday might pile up a few inches way up high, but the period of heaviest precipitation Thursday and Thursday night would be rain, unless maybe you're way up at 3,000 feet of elevation or higher. 

The heaviest rain looks like it will hit southern Vermont, which is great, because that's where it's currently the driest. 

Best guesses through Saturday morning brings about 1.25 to nearly two inches of rain for most areas south of Route 4.

The Champlain Valley looks like they're in for maybe an inch of rain.

The Northeast Kingdom is most likely to get cheated out of some of the rain. There's a lot of east winds with this system, especially when the best moisture arrives. When there's a steady, strong east wind with a storm system, New Hampshire's White Mountains often block a lot of the moisture from reaching places like St. Johnsbury, Lyndonville, Newport and Island Pond. 

So, those areas will probably see less than an inch of rain, with a few places possibly only clocking in with a half inch. Still, that helps. 

Winds shift into the northwest over the weekend. Usually a departing storm this time of year will bring snow showers even to the valleys. It shouldn't be hard to get below freezing in late November. 

Not this time. There's very little cold air to our north to tap into, so valleys should keep going with mostly cold rain showers, while the high elevations do get a little snow.  

The precipitation - valley showers and mountain snow shower - will gradually wane during the day Sunday. 

Beyond the weekend, the forecast still looks iffy. Unfortunately, it looks like it's trending a little less stormy than earlier predictions, so we might not get as much needed extra rain and snow as I first thought. 

But who knows? I'll keep an eye on it.  

Tropical Storm Sara A Catastrophe For Honduras. But Forecast Is Encouraging For Florida

Satellite view of Tropical Storm Sara already 
unleashing torrential rains on Honduras.

The mess of storminess in the western Caribbean Sea got its act together enough today to be declared Tropical Storm Sara.   

As of late this afternoon, it had top winds of only 40 mph, which certainly isn't a blockbuster in that department. 

But Tropical Storm Sara is a big blockbuster in terms of rain, and it's drenching Honduras with dangerous downpours.  Worse, that state of affairs will continue into most of the weekend. 

The storm's forward speed, already kinda glacial, is slowing down even more. Sara will crawl along the northern coast of Honduras all weekend, at a forward pace as slow or slower than an average person's walking speed. 

All the while, it will dump extreme downpours on the nation, especially in the north. Mountains just inland from the northern coast of Honduras are subject to great rushes of water rushing down the slopes, and catastrophic mudslides. 

Some places could easily see 30 inches of rain. Fatalities are inevitable, I'm afraid. 

SARA'S FORECAST

Expectations of what Sara might do over the next week have changed markedly from earlier this week. Initial forecasts had the storm staying far enough offshore to gain lots of strength from near record warm Caribbean waters. 

Fears grew that Sara would become possibly a powerful hurricane.  And maybe have enough oomph left over to menace Florida.

Florida can't completely let down its guard as of late this afternoon, but residents there can certainly breathe easier. 

Sara's center is now forecast to hug the Honduran coast as it unleashes its cataclysmic rains, so it won't be able to strengthen much. Its interaction with land will probably disrupt its circulation,

Unless Sara somehow manages to edge a little further north into open water, forecasters now doubt top winds will go much above 55 mph or so.

Toward Sunday, Sara should finally get a gentle kick in the pants and start heading northwest into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Since it probably won't be all that strong to begin with, Sara will probably die a relatively quiet death over land down there. 

Originally, Sara was supposed to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, possibly as a hurricane targeting Florida next week. Now the best guess is that what will be former Sara will cross Florida during the middle of next week as a modest rainstorm.

Things could obviously change.  Tropical systems have surprised us several times this year with unexpected strength and resilience, so Florida should remain aware of this thing, just in case. 

Global And U.S. September Were Super Warm Again, New Data Shows

Once again in September, 2024, it was hard to find 
cool places on a warming Earth. It was the second
warmest September on record, breaking a 15-
month streak of record warm months. 

 Now that we're getting climate reports again from NOAA, we can take a look at what happened in the United States and the world during September.  

To nobody's surprise, it was hot everywhere. Globally, September was the second hottest on record.  

That September was "only" the second hottest ended a 15-month streak of record warm global temperatures, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).     

The September reports were delayed because NCEI is located in Asheville, North Carolina. That city was ravaged by catastrophic flooding from Hurricane Helene in September. 

While the NCEI building was not damaged, the collapse of the city's infrastructure meant that NCEI could not collect data, or disseminate it.

NCEI is the largest environmental and climate data center in the world, and its servers need tons of cooling water from Asheville's municipal supply. The city's water plant was destroyed by Helene, and the city is only now restoring water service to everyone.

So things are looking  up, and we are getting data.  

GLOBAL DATA

First, let's look at the world.

As noted, September globally was the second warmest, just behind the mark set last year.  Still, 2024 now stands a 99.8 percent chance of becoming the world's warmest year on record, according to NCEI.

The familiar trend line continues. As NCEI states:

"September, 2024 marked the 50th consecutive September with global temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th century average and the 547th consecutive month with temperatures at least nominally above the 20th century average. The past eleven Septembers (2014-2024) have been the warmest Septembers on record."

The warmest areas relative to average were most of North and South America, most of Europe. In particular, eastern Canada, eastern Europe, the Caribbean and a large chunk of Southeast Asia.

As has been the case in recent years, cool spots were few and far between. Somewhat cool areas, relative to average were in extreme western Europe, parts of Greenland and Iceland, south central Russia, Kazakhstan, parts of southern Africa and a good chunk of Antarctica. 

 UNITED STATES

Following the lead of the world, the U.S. also had its second warmest September on record.

September was the United States' second warmest
on record. Year to date is warmest on record.

Arizona, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota had their warmest September on record.  

Here in Vermont, NCEI listed us as having the eleventh warmest September on record. It depends where you were in the state, of course. Burlington measured its fourth warmest September. 

Nobody in the United States had a cool September, though several states in the Southeast were fairly close to normal for the month. 

The twelve month period ending in September has also been the warmest on record for the United States. 

One other way to look at the relative warmth of September and the year as a whole is to inspect how many daily record highs and lows were set at thousands of weather stations across the U.S.

In September, we saw 1,734 record highs and 573 record lows. Through September 30, the nation had 23,169 record highs and 8,882 record lows.

Helping to set the stage for the drought now expanding in the United States, September was on the dry side, coming in at 40th driest out of 130 years of record. Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska had their driest Septembers on record. Connecticut,  Delaware, Maine, Michigan, New Jersey, South Dakota and Wisconsin had one of their top ten driest Septembers.

DISASTERS

As of October 1, the number of weather disasters in the U.S. this year costing at least $1 billion is now up to 24. The only year that was worse was last year, when there were 27 such disasters through mid-October.

As you might expect, Hurricanes Helene and Milton have been added to the list of billion dollar disasters. We know each storm cost at least that much, and certainly more, but final cost estimates are not in yet. 

Tuesday Evening Hurricane Milton Update: Grim Monster Continues Push Toward Florida

 Hurricane Milton remains a monster. 

Visible satellite view of Hurricane Milton late Tuesday
afternoon. Click on the pic to make it bigger and easy to
see. The main central swirl around the eye looks like a buzzsaw.

After re-arranging its eye during the morning and losing just a slight bit of steam,  Hurricane Milton reasserted itself and gained almost all of its previous power. Plus, it's a larger storm now. 

As of late this afternoon, the National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Milton was a Category 5 with top winds of 165 mph. It was 480 miles southwest of Tampa, Florida and heading in that general direction. 

Yeah, it sucks to put it mildly. 

The forecast track has shifted southward by the tiniest smidge. That raises some tentative hope that it will pass a little south of Tampa Bay. 

If that were to happen - and there is absolutely NO guarantee that it will - the storm surge in Tampa Bay would be a little less than the current dire 10 to 15 feet. But don't count on it. Plus, "a little less" is still a huge danger. 

The "cone of uncertainty," which is the zone in which Hurricane Milton could make landfall, could be as far north as a spot 60 miles north of Tampa. Remember, a path over or just north of Tampa Bay would yield the worst storm surge possible in Tampa Bay, due to the topography of the land around the bay. 

On the other hand, Hurricane Milton could come ashore as far south as Cape Coral, about 100 miles south of Tampa.  

In other words, anybody who is in an evacuation zone in Florida and hasn't left yet should flee now if not sooner. 

If this evening's projected path is spot on, it would come ashore near around metro Sarasota, which has a population of about 835,000.

Also remember that Hurricane Milton is expanding in size, and that trend will continue. As of late this afternoon, tropical force storm winds extend out 140 miles from Milton's eye. That area could double by the time Hurricane Milton is approaching Florida. 

Late Tuesday afternoon forecasts have tropical force winds of 39 mph or more, and the beginnings of a storm surge should be starting not long after noon tomorrow on Florida's Gulf Coast. It will be too late to get out of way of the storm tomorrow. 

By the time Hurricane Milton reaches the Florida coast, upper level winds and an approaching front from the north will be trying to weaken the storm. But it will be too little, too late. Top winds are forecast to be 125 mph with higher gusts at landfall..

And a last minute reduction in wind speeds won't translate to a lower storm surge. 

Often when a hurricane is beginning to weaken, the south side of the storm has the higher winds. This time, it might be the north side that has the most ferocious winds. So even if the center of Milton passes a little south of Tampa, the winds would be super destructive, even if the storm surge ends up being a little less than the more dire forecasts.

So Tampa really can't win here. 

Hurricane force winds will blast across all of central Florida coast to coast overnight Wednesday and into Thursday. 

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR PEOPLE

Like I mentioned, people who did not evacuate from the storm surge area are in deep, deep trouble. 

Much like in Helene, Florida officials told people who choose not to evacuate from vulnerable areas to mark their names and date of birth on their arms with permanent marker so officials can identify their bodies later. 

Emergency managers said they were able to conduct a few water rescues in Florida during Hurricane Helene's storm surge. That won't be the case with more powerful Hurricane Milton. They told residents if don't leave by noon Wednesday, they are on their own. Nobody will come to rescue them when the water rises. 

Of course, I have to wonder about the welfare of some of the people who heeded warnings and evacuated. Some people don't have the means to evacuate from danger zones are doing. What if you don't have a car? How do you escape?  Just the cost of travel, accommodations in an evacuation can easily cost $500 or more.  A lot of  people don't have that kind of money lying around. So do they hunker down and hope for the best? 

Do people deserve to die in a hurricane for the "sin" of not having enough income?

There are shelters that have opened in public buildings on high ground for some of these storm surge refugees, but is there room for all of them?

Much of Florida is now shutting down as the storm bears down.

Tampa International Airport closed this morning. Orlando's airport shuts down tomorrow morning. Walt Disney World and Universal in Orlando as of this afternoon were staying open, perhaps unwisely, though campgrounds in wooded areas are closing for fear of falling trees.

As of this evening, nobody is allowed access to barrier islands off the southwest Florida coast.  If there are any stragglers still in homes on the barrier islands, they'll still be allowed to flee. But time is running short. 

President Biden canceled planned trips to Germany and Angola to monitor the hurricane. 

Downtown Tampa looked like a ghost town by Tuesday afternoon. The normally bustling area was almost devoid of cars and pedestrians, and businesses were either closed or shutting down operations until after the storm. 

I haven't mentioned climate change in most of these updates as I'm mostly focusing on the immediate impacts of this storm. But many aspects of Hurricane Milton are at least consistent with climate change. I'll get into that in a future post, once we catch our breath for this latest sure to be deadly and expensive calamity. 

 

Not Just Southeast United States: Nepal, Mexico In Crushing Floods

Extensive flooding in Kathmandu, as seen in this
aerial view. AP Photo by Gopen Rai.

While we in the United States are dealing with apocalyptic floods in the Southeast, other spots in the world are dealing with much the same thing. 

Both Nepal and Mexico in the past week have endured floods on the scale, or nearly on the scale of what we've seen in North Carolina and surrounding states.  

NEPAL

The flooding in Nepal focused in and around Kathmandu, where torrential rains have hit since Friday. In Nepal, at least 193 people have died and more are missing, according to the Associated Press.

Much like Asheville, North Carolina, Kathmandu was largely cut off from the outside world due to the flooding. Though Kathmandu is much bigger than Asheville, with a population of about 850,000.

Rainfall with this storm ranged from about nine to 12 inches in and around Kathmandu, leading to the flash flooding. That's about the normal rainfall there for the entire month of September. 

The trouble in Nepal was also wide-ranging and multifaceted. One example, according to the AP:

"A landslide killed three dozen people in a blocked highway about 10 miles from Kathmandu. The landslide buried at least three buses and other vehicles where people were sleeping because the highway was blocked."

The flooding hit near what is usually the tail end of Nepal's monsoon season. 

Poor land use made the flooding in and around Kathmandu worse than it otherwise would have been, as Al Jazeera reports:

"Urban planner Neeraj Dangol said multiple factors were behind the latest disaster.

The Basmati River, he says, was narrowed due to haphazard planing and urban development that took place after a drastic population boom in Kathmandu in the early 1990s. 

'In the past 40-50 years, houses and roads have been built on areas that used to be part of the river system,' Dangol explained."

Formerly porous agricultural land, which used to absorb water, is now covered in concrete, which increases runoff. There's also been a lot of deforestation in Nepal, which also contributes to worse flooding.

Finally, as in so many other places the world, climate change has increased the intensify of rain storms, which of course worsens flooding. 

 MEXICO

Severe flooding in Acapulco due to Hurricane John

Parts of Mexico's Pacific Coast and nearby mountains are reeling from what's been described as "Zombie" Hurricane John.

It was called that because it smacked into the Mexican coast southeast of Acapulco last week as a Category 3 hurricane. It then dissipated inland, and you'd think that was that.

But then the remnants drifted back out over the warm Pacific Ocean waters, regenerated into a hurricane and then again hit the Mexican coast. That's why Hurricane John has been called "zombie." 

The effects were devastating. The BBC reports some places had nearly a year's worth of rainfall in just a few days. 

Acapulco, completely trashed by Hurricane Otis last year, was only just getting a recovery into swing when Hurricane John hit, flooding swaths of the resort city. City officials pleaded with anyone had boats to help rescue people in flooded neighborhoods. Some families were stranded on roof while the water rose around them. 

So far the death toll from these floods has been placed at anywhere between 15 and 29, but that is expected to rise.  

Videos

Scenes from Nepal this week really are similar to those I've seen from North Carolina. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

In Mexico, landslides were also part of the disaster due to "Zombie" Hurricane John. Again, click on the  this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that. 

More Vermont Summer Flood Updates As Recovery Continues

Floodwater beginning to recede in Hinesburg, Vermont
on July 11 after causing a lot of damage. Recovery from
the summer floods continues, with a variety of updates
coming in as we move on from the disasters. 

 Now that we're leaving our hot, humid, awful flood-wracked Vermont summer, there's always a few updates to the stories of the disasters, so here's just a few. 

Lyndonville Bridge

The Sanborn Covered Bridge will return to its perch over the Passumpsic River in Lyndonville after all.

The bridge had been removed from its spot over the river for restoration. There was never any question of whether the bridge would be restored. But would it need to give up its function as a river crossing?

The Lyndon area and the Passumpsic River have flooded with increasing frequency and severity in recent years, thanks in large part to climate change. People in the region are looking for ways to mitigate these floods.

The Sanborn covered bridge and its abutments are a pinch point in the Passumpsic River, possibly worsening floods upstream. So the question was whether the bridge should go back up where it has been so long. 

As WCAX reports, after feedback from Lyndon residents, the bridge will be placed back over the river this fall. However, adjustments will be made to its abutments to allow water to pass through more easily. 

Tourism Steady

Despite the international headlines regarding Vermont's floods this summer, the all-important tourism traffic  to Vermont seemed to be steady, WCAX also reports. Their article didn't have much in the way of numbers, revenue and that kind of thing. Mostly, I believe because it's too soon to tally things like sales tax and rooms and meals tax revenue for the summer. 

Bookings for the fall foliage tourism season in Vermont seem to be running a little ahead of last year, too. 

Still, as reported earlier this summer, not everyone is doing well after the flooding. Nearly 350 Vermont businesses have already reported flood damage.  And businesses in some of the hardest hit communities like Lyndonville, East Burke, Plainfield and Barre are still struggling. 

Snowmobile Trails In Rough Shape

Vermont has about 5,000 miles of snowmobile trails, and those are an important part of the state's winter tourism. As WPTZ reports, so far, there's at least $1 million in damage to the trails and that damage is scattered over wide areas. 

Getting things fixed in time for winter will be complicated. As WPTZ says:

"The trails that span near 5,000 miles across the state are split between locally owned land, state land and private property, which makes it harder to qualify for flood help."

Still, the Vermont Association of Snow Travelers, which maintains the trails, say volunteers are helping fix the damage and the trails should largely be in good shape this winter. 

If it snows for a change.  

Humidity, Rain Contribute To Late Schools

Some schools in Vermont have delayed openings this fall because of hazardous mold. The problem is a combination of outdated HVAC systems and an especially humid summer that contributed to moisture in school buildings, and resulting mold. 

By some meteorologists' estimates, this has been the most humid summer on record in Vermont. All that lingering moisture has created mold issues in schools like Otter Valley High School, Milton Elementary, and Moretown Elementary. 

Moretown Elementary was damaged by flooding last December. 

"We are seeing a lot of flooding, a lot of rain, a lot of moisture and similar to our roads and infrastructure, our schools are not ready, they're not prepared for these kinds of changes," Sen. Brian Campion, the chair of the Vermont Senate Education Committee told WPTZ. 

Some FEMA Aid Delayed

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is once again out of cash, and that will delay some assistance to Vermont towns and cities that suffered damage this summer, Vermont Public reports. 

Individual homeowners and renters in seven Vermont counties can still get funds from FEMA.  More than 500 people have applied.

But as Vermont Public tells us, FEMA is technically out of cash, so they can't pay local and state governments to fix roads, bridges and other infrastructure. 

That money should come through eventually, but Congress has to pass a budget first. Good luck with that, as the U.S. Senate and especially House can't seem to get anything done these days.  

Quick Thursday Morning Update: Bullet WAS Dodged; Break From Storms Today?

The Spanked Puppy Restaurant and Pub
in Colchester posted this photo of storm
damage to their business on Tuesday.
They were forced to shut down for that
evening, but have since re-opened. 

 Have to get an early start this Thursday morning, so a quick very early post to say:

Good morning! And no, Vermont did NOT have any huge new flood problems on Wednesday. 

We did have that new flash flood warning last evening for the Northeast Kingdom, including hard-hit St Johnsbury and Lyndonville. 

I'm sure that - and the heavy rain that did fall - freaked a lot of people out in that neck of the woods. 

Luckily it didn't rain hard or long enough to cause major issues. Sure, there was some minor trouble. I saw a photo on Facebook of some water over the road on Route 122 between Lyndonville and Sheffield. I'm also sure there was some more erosion on steep roads and driveways. But nothing cataclysmic. 

It seems the "training" storms - those that kept going over the same areas repeatedly, focused more on New Hampshire than in Vermont. 

Several roads were closed in Grafton County, New Hampshire, across the Connecticut River from Vermont and east of the St. Johnsbury/Lyndonville area. Up to 4.5 inches of rain was reported in that New Hampshire county. 

Lost in all this, that I should mention, is the degree of storm damage in parts of Burlington and Colchester Tuesday afternoon. It looks like the area was afflicted by a microburst, especially around the area of the eastern end of Bay Road, Route 2 and the western part of Main Street in Colchester. 

Many trees fell, some landing atop houses.  The popular Spanked Puppy Restaurant and Pub was damaged by falling trees and forced to close for business Tuesday. The damage has since been cleaned up and the business has  re-opened

The weather story today and tomorrow is just more hot, humid weather. There are chances of showers and thunderstorms. But they will be limited in number, size, scope and longevity, so I wouldn't worry about new flash flooding either day. 

More storms on Saturday and Sunday could create a few instances of water trouble, but so far, the risk doesn't look extreme. Definitely worth keeping an eye on,  though. 

We're still seeing signs of a major change in the weather pattern that could give us a fairly extended period of mostly cooler, much less humid weather next week. 

I'll have a post today that will give you all the proof you need that you lived through one of the worst weather Julys on record. Let's hope for a calmer August! 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Ice/Rain Update: UG-LEE

Forecasted amounts of ice for tonight and early 
tomorrow have ticked up somewhat. Red areas can
expect a quarter inch of ice. This could be enough
for isolated power outage. Whether or not the
power stays on, road conditions in the yellow
orange and red shaded areas will be 
terrible overnight and early Thursday. 

We entered today into what I consider the worst or at best, the very least pleasant stretch of weather in Vermont this winter.   

That's saying something, considering how stormy it's been since late November.  

As I said this morning, I hope you like rain, freezing rain, drizzle, freezing rain and fog/freezing fog. 

Sun is a distant memory. We haven't seen it since Monday morning, and we won't see it again until Sunday at the earliest. But more likely not until Monday. 

The storminess we're entering into isn't the strongest of the winter. But it's the ugliest.  

This afternoon, temperatures did manage to get above freezing in much of western Vermont, but it still was a lousy day with low, gray clouds, an unpleasant south breeze, and patchy fog and drizzle. 

 A warm front of sorts has passed through western Vermont, but has stalled out before reaching far northern and much of eastern Vermont.

As a result, much of central and eastern Vermont held near or a bit below freezing. 

Both these facts kind of spell out our future tonight into Saturday night.  Before we get into it, since temperatures will be so close to the freezing mark, some of what I outline might end up being a little off. Some areas might get a bit more ice than expected, others might see a little less. 

But less slide on into the forecast: 

TONIGHT

The air has warmed up aloft quite a bit since this morning. So a new area of precipitation that was just entering our area as of 5 p.m. is pretty much all rain.  Not snow like this morning. 

But the low level cold air is hanging tough along and east of the Greens. That means it will be mostly freezing rain overnight in those place. I don't recommend driving anywhere in those areas from about now (5:30 p.m. Wednesday) to Thursday morning. 

Parts of my St. Albans, Vermont driveway thawed today,
while other parts remained solidly frozen. A cold
rain tonight will likely add to the ice, despite
temperatures expected to be marginally above freezing

Forecast rainfall amounts have also ticked up since this morning. That makes me wonder whether power outages will be an issue in parts of eastern Vermont.  I don't think it will be anywhere near as extensive as during those awful wind storms on January 10 and 13. 

But a quarter inch of ice accumulation is where tree branches and power lines start to have trouble. Some areas in eastern Vermont will have that much. 

On the bright side, widespread power outages usually don't start happening unless there's more than a half inch of ice, and that isn't in the forecast through Thursday morning. 

In western Vermont, enough cold air might bleed in from the north tonight to make parts of Franklin County pretty icy.  Even if it stays above freezing, the rain will freeze on cold surfaces that aren't treated with salt. I'm talking back roads, driveways, sidewalks, that sort of thing.

I noticed today at my place in St Albans, Vermont, parts of my driveway thawed, while the ice has hung on stubbornly in other sections. We don't salt our driveway, because that would hurt the paws of Jackson the Weather Dog. My driveway is just an example of how things will play out tonight. 

THURSDAY 

Another lousy day in Vermont. The main batch of rain and freezing rain will move out by dawn or shortly thereafter.

That will leave us under a layer of low, thick clouds. We'll have areas of fog and patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle. If you have Seasonal Affective Disorder,  this will be another tough one. 

Especially since another round of rain and freezing rain will be on our doorstep. 

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

That will come in overnight Thursday night and last well into Friday.  I suspect the freezing rain won't be quite as widespread as tonight but that's not a guarantee. I still worry about a few places that don't thaw out Thursday, then get more freezing rain Friday.

Friday will be another day of low clouds, fog, drizzle and light rain and/or freezing rain. In some placed all that will keep freezing.  Where it remains above freezing it'll only be in the mid 30s. That's quite warm for this time of year, but bone chilling given the fog and drizzle.

BEYOND FRIDAY

It'll stay mild Saturday and maybe into Sunday, but the clouds will hang tough. We're still watching yet another storm later Sunday. So far, it's still looking like that one will stay too far south to give us much precipitation. Even if it does, the atmosphere will have cooled enough to give us snow, not freezing rain. 

Cross your fingers but longer range forecasts indicate we just might have a quiet weather week next week. Sometimes boring weather is a good thing.  

Monday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Details On Forecast Dangerous Damaging Winds/Snow/Rain

Tree damage after an intense wind storm in Vermont's
Champlain Valley in October, 2017. Gusts similar to
that storm are possible Tuesday night in parts of
western Vermont as an intense storm blusters through.

 It seems like all I do lately is offer updates on nasty storms approaching Vermont. But the weather pattern has gotten crazy at the moment, so I kind of have to.  

The forecast for the upcoming big storm hasn't changed much at all for a few days now.

That might not sound like big news, but it's important in one respect: It just gives credence to the forecast of a bad wind storm hitting Vermont tomorrow night. 

It really does look like the worst of the weather will hit overnight Tuesday, and start to get better during the day Wednesday. 

Here are the forecast updates as of late Monday afternoon:  

High winds

Strong winds continue to be the biggest threat from this storm. Western Vermont is at greatest risk. The highest winds should sweep through roughly between 9 p.m Tuesday and 4 a.m. Wednesday. 

The high wind watch has been upgraded to a high wind warning from the Green Mountains west to Lake Champlain and the New York border, with the exception of Grand Isle County, where a slightly lower grade wind advisory is in effect.

The concerning thing is this storm seems like it wants to have the characteristics of storms in October, 2017 and December, 2022.

Most of the downslope windstorms with strong east winds affect the immediate western slopes of the Green Mountains - small towns like Mendon, Ripton, Huntington, Underhill, Cambridge, Bakersfield, Montgomery. 

The upcoming storm, like 2017 and 2022 appears as if it might be so strong that the angle of the downslope winds won't be as steeply downward as most storms.

 If that happens, some of the worst gusts could hit more populated areas of western Vermont. We're talking Cities and towns like Rutland, Middlebury, Burlington and St. Albans.

These wind events are a little hard to predict, but I'd stay on your toes in these bigger towns for gusts up to 65 mph. 

I know Green Mountain Power is already warning customers to expect power outages, and the utility has bolstered crews ready to start repairing power lines as soon as they can. Still, this storm has the potential for cutting power to tens of thousands of homes and businesses. Some might be without electricity for several days. 

Since this storm looks like it might be similar to December, 2022, remember this: In that case, 70,600 homes and business across Vermont lost power 

Get your LED candles out and ready, buy batteries if you need to before 4 p.m. Tuesday and have your devices charged by Tuesday evening, folks. 

Most of eastern Vermont is under a wind advisory, with expected gusts as high as 50 mph. That's not as bad as western Vermont. But the added danger there with the winds is......

Wet Snow Dangers

The first part of the storm looks like it will be accompanied by a good thump of heavy, wet snow in much of the state. A winter weather advisory is up for all of Vermont from the Green Mountains eastward. 

Three to seven inches of snow could fall, with locally more in the higher elevations. Most of this would hit before midnight.  The snow will all come within just a few hours, so the roads will turn into a mess, mostly after 5 p.m. This will also hit while winds are ramping up. This would exacerbate the expected power outage. 

After midnight the snow will likely change to rain. 

Western Vermont will probably see some snow, but it won't be as big a deal as in the rest of the state. 

Flooding

Although there is some risk of flooding, the chances of serious problems in Vermont are much less than points further south, like southern New York and eastern Pennsylvania.

That's because a portion of the precipitation we're getting in Vermont will be that thump of wet snow I talked about. The snow will turn to rain, and temperatures in the 40s will melt a bunch of the existing snow cover. 

So, there might be some ponding of water, minor washouts and lowland flooding. Maybe even a couple roads that get flooded. But this still doesn't look nearly as bad as the big inundation we had on December 18-19. River levels will come up, for sure. There might even be some water backing up into the lowland flood plains. 

Another Storm

It's still looking like another powerful storm will hit Vermont around Saturday. Not sure what the rain/snow ratio will be yet, but it looks like another nasty one. I honestly don't think all the power will be restored in Vermont from Tuesday night's storm by the weekend. And the weekend storm is looking windy enough to cause more power trouble.

We'll get into this one more after we get through the more immediate trouble.

 

Smaller Than Expected Vermont Storm Nearing End, Power Outages Still An Issue, But Calmer Days Ahead

Sort of a dreamy view of my snowy back yard in St.
Albans, Vermont following today's less than 
extreme snowstorm. 

As of Monday evening, the snow was getting ready to call it quits in northern Vermont and had already pretty much ended in central and southern Vermont. 

That one remaining band of snow could drop another inch of snow on some places north of Route 2 this evening with maybe a couple inches in favored mountain spot. 

THE STORM STATS

The storm mercifully was not nearly as bad as forecasts on Sunday suggested. The storm didn't strengthen as much as expected.

 There was plenty of moisture in the atmosphere for heavy snow, but the relative weakness of the storm meant it couldn't take advantage of all that wetness in the air. 

Nobody got the 18 inches that was hyped for the mountains. Sorry, winter sports fans!

So, we ended up with wet, sticky moderate snowfall. I see a couple reports of 8 or 9 inches of new snow in a couple spots. But northern Vermont mostly reported four to six inches, at least in areas away from Lake Champlain.

One aspect of the storm forecasters got right is the fact that much less snow fell along the shore of Lake Champlain than just a little bit inland. 

I live at a relatively high elevation - 650 or so feet above sea level on the eastern end of St. Albans well away from the lake, and I got a little over five inches. Right along the edge of St. Albans Bay, at a bit over 100 feet above sea level, there was maybe a little over an inch of new snow. 

At the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, only 1.9 inches of snow accumulated as of 5 p.m. That's a lot less than the four to eight inches that some forecasts said. 

This rain and snowfall was a very wet storm, though, by December standards. Most of Vermont had at least an inch of rain and melted snow, with many places definitely exceeding 1.5 inches. There was a bullseye of heavy precipitation in northwestern Vermont. Fletcher reported 2.75 inches of rain and melted snow. St. Albans was close behind with 2.5 inches. 

Burlington received 1.44 inches of precipitation with this storm, bringing the month's to 2.56 inches. Even if not one more snowflake or raindrop lands on Burlington for the rest of December,  the month will still end up just a tiny bit wetter than average. And we're not even halfway through the month yet! 

Since it was an awfully wet snow, power outages were still a problem, despite the relatively modest accumulations. Outages peaked at nearly 8,000 Vermont home and businesses at mid-afternoon Monday. They have been declining since, and we were down to about 4,100 outages as of 5:30 p.m. 

The next hazard with this so-so storm is the return of icy roads in spots tonight. They will mostly wet at sunset, but temperatures will inevitably fall below freezing this evening. That guarantees icy patches, especially on bridges, overpasses, untreated surfaces and back roads. Things won't be nearly as nasty on the roads as this morning, but you'll still need to take care. 

GOING FORWARD

The good news is the rest of the week is looking pretty mellow. It'll be sort of warm tomorrow with highs for most of us in the 30s. A gusty southwest wind will add a bit of a chill to the air, however.

A cold front Tuesday night and early Wednesday will bring some of us a dusting to an inch of snow, with maybe a couple inches in the mountains. No biggie. It'll be seasonable cold Wednesday and Thursday. (Highs 25-35, lows in the teens to around 20).

The overall weather pattern for basically the whole nation has turned warm, and we'll share in that tropical heat. OK, maybe not tropical, but 30s to low 40s for the end of the week and next weekend isn't too shabby for a time of year that can get well below zero.

The next chance of any real precipitation would come Sunday night and Monday.  Current computer models have a storm coming out of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and heading almost due north towards us  Sunday night.

I'm not really buying that scenario and I know for sure the forecast will change quite a bit before we get to that point. So don't worry about it. 

Sunday Morning Vermont Storm Forecast: Snow/Power Outage Worries Grow; Flood Threat Diminishes

The ever-present, ever-handy latest National Weather 
Service snowfall prediction map. This is the latest
update issued this morning, and expected totals
have ticked upwards from previous forecast maps.

 The outlook for our big storm, set to begin hitting Vermont later today, keeps getting colder and colder, meaning this will be a bigger, badder snowstorm than anybody would have imagined a few days ago.

A winter storm warning is now up for all of Vermont except the lower Connecticut River Valley floor from about White River Junction south. In that area, a lower-dose winter weather advisory has been hoisted instead. 

Even though this will be a somewhat colder scenario than previous forecast, the snow, when it arrives, will be wet and heavy.  

Ground zero for power outages in the last two storms were mid and higher elevations away from Lake Champlain in central and northern Vermont.  This time, lots of power outages are likely pretty much everywhere, but the Champlain Valley might end up being the hardest hit. 

The Champlain Valley will be a little warmer than the hill towns, so the snow there will be especially wet and heavy. Worse - and this goes for nearly the entire state - snowfall rates will be at times one to two inches per hour from the predawn hours through at least noon. 

When wet snow piles up that fast, it tends to plaster itself to trees and power lines much more efficiently that if weren't coming down so hard. 

 Additionally, gusty north to northwest winds will load the snow on the north side of trees and less on the south side. That makes the trees unbalanced, making them more likely to topple onto power lines. 

This is a really dynamic storm. The first signs of that fact became apparent yesterday and last night. The storm produced a deadly tornado outbreak in and around Tennessee. I'll get into those tornadoes in a separate post today. 

Being such a powerful storm heading north along the New England coast, it will produce LOTS of precipitation.  Rain and melted snow will amount to 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with locally higher amounts. That's a big total for a December storm. 

Storm clouds gather over St. Albans, Vermont Sunday
morning ahead of what is expected to be a very disruptive
snowstorm. Rain will change to heavy, wet snow overnight.

On the bright side, this snowier scenario has diminished the flood risk.  The chances of flooding are now mostly limited to areas from Route 4 south, and any flooding should be pretty minor. Central and eastern New England are now under the biggest threats from flooding

It's really amazing how much the storm and its predicted effects changed in the last week. It was first thought it would be almost exclusively a rain storm and flood. Now, the heavy snow has taken center stage. 

Days ago, the storm was expected to pass to well to our west, maybe near Toronto. Now, it's expected to head north along the New England coast, probably passing right over Boston. 

HOW IT PLAYS OUT

It's warm out there this morning, and scattered showers are starting to roam around Vermont. It's in the 40s to near 50.  Many of us will get into the 50s later this morning before the steadier, heavier rain arrives by early afternoon. 

Temperatures will sink back through the 40s this afternoon, but there's no risk of a changeover to snow before evening. If you want to get out and pick up groceries and supplies and such before the storm, the only hazards you'll have to deal with is hydroplaning on highways in the rain. There might be some standing water and such here and there, too.

Temperatures will continue to slowly sink this evening. Rain will change to snow first on the mountain tops, then reach valley floors starting around midnight to 2 a.m. in western Vermont. That's when the trouble really begins. 

The heavy, wet snow will continue to spread, probably hitting all of Vermont except the lower Connecticut River Valley before daybreak.  

For those who have to drive to work Monday morning, this is a nightmare scenario, since the heaviest snow will probably hit during drive time.  It'll snow too hard for state snow plows to keep up.  Heavy wet snow is more slippery, and harder to plow than the more powdery stuff we're used to.

Back roads will also be a mess of snow, fallen trees and branches, and maybe snapped power lines. Many of those back roads will be impassable at times. I think some sections of Interstates and other major roads in Vermont might also close due to car crashes, fallen trees and power lines.

If at all possible, don't drive anywhere Monday, especially before noon. There will be nothing to get to anyway. I'm sure many schools will close, and many events will be canceled or postponed.

The snow should gradually become lighter and eventually more scattered as we head into late day Monday and Monday night. Roads should still be a mess, and power outages will be ongoing. Winds gusting to 35 mph will ensure snow loaded trees and branches will continue to snap. 

Yeah, this storm is a real pain in the neck

SNOW TOTALS

If this storm was a "normal" winter event for Vermont with our prized powdery snow, almost everybody would be getting at least a foot of snow, with several places closing in on two feet, easily.

But since this is mostly a miserable "wet cement" type snow, totals won't be quite that high, but still pretty impressive.

All this is subject to change, of course, but pretty much everybody north and west of a line from Bennington to St. Johnsbury should see at least six inches of snow. 

The big bonus zones - areas that could easily see a foot of snow, include the northern and eastern Champlain Valley, most of the northern third of Vermont and the Green Mountains from roughly Killington north.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 18 inches or more at summits like Mount Mansfield or Jay Peak. 

The "escape zone" from this mess is the lower Connecticut Valley floor, which will see totals ranging from a slushy coating to three or four inches. 

Remember, this is "heart attack" snow, so shovel it away slowly and methodically, and take breaks. Or get some healthy teenager to help you with it. 

I'm sure the forecast for this storm will continue to be tweaked, so stay tuned for updates going forward. The National Weather Service and Vermont's excellent television and radio meteorologists will always be there, staying on top of this and providing updates.

Severe, Life Threatening Flash Floods Today In Vermont, Even If You Feel Unscathed (So Far)

Screen grab from the Warren, Vermont covered bridge
web cam shows the Mad River rising rapidly in
town. Flash flooding is ongoing and getting
worse across Vermont. 

 Flash flooding, as expected, is going on in Vermont and surrounding areas, and it will get worse throughout the day. It's still a hair on fire type of emergency developing, unfortunately.  

I still think this will easily be the worst flooding since Irene. 

This is a rapidly developing situation, so pay attention to warnings from the National Weather Service. That's your best bet for th day. 

The flooding today could easily become life threatening and catastrophic, and in some places in the Green Mountain State, it's already beginning to approach that point. 

Some of you might think I'm an idiot for saying all this, since as of early this morning, some areas away from the Green Mountains have only had a light rain storm so far. 

I emphasize the term "so far" as some areas that only had a gentle rain through 6 a.m. are still in for a very rough ride. 

As of 6:30 a.m, or so, the worst flooding has clung close to the Green Mountains. It looks like south-central Vermont southeast of Rutland is having the worst time so far.  For example:

--- The National Weather Service has declared a flash flood emergency and particularly dangerous situation in and around Ludlow due to the onslaught of water. Such declarations are reserved only for dire, life threatening circumstances. 

--- Swift water rescuers retrieved ten campers from flooding in Andover overnight. 

--- Route 100, the main south-north route through the heart of Vermont's Green Mountains is closed by flooding in Ludlow. Another section of Route 100 in Weston is washed out.

--- Sections of Route 103 in Mount Holly and Ludlow are closed. Ludlow has already reported a whopping 5.67 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. 

--- Route 4 in Woodstock is closed.   So is Route 30 in Winhall and Jamaica. 

The flooding was spreading north early today,  Route 16 in Barton was reported closed at dawn's early light. There's a report of Route 2 being closed around Middlesex. 

THE OUTLOOK

Flash flood warnings were up for virtually all of the spine of the Green Mountains this morning.  The overnight round of heavy rain was getting ready to temporarily taper off somewhat for a short time. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center continues to have much of Vermont in a high risk zone for flooding today, focused most intensely along and north of Route 4 and from the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains west to around Plattsburgh and Saranac Lake, New York.  .

A rare high risk (in pink) zone for flash flooding today
High risk means chances are high that there will
be catastrophic, life threatening floods. 

As I mentioned yesterday, a high risk is very rare and is almost always associated with deadly, catastrophic flooding. 

Rainfall rates in some of the heaviest downpours could reach 1.5 inches per hour, which is a LOT. 

Through 6 a.m, Burlington had had an unremarkable storm total of 0.55 inches of rain.  Interestingly, the Weather Prediction Center places the bullseye of heaviest rain today over the Champlain Valley.

IF that comes to pass, it would be bad for a lot of reason. .Mostly, it's the most heavily populated section of the state. Urban and basement flooding would be widespread. Worse, the towns in eastern Chittenden County would see extreme flash flooding under this scenario as water rushes off the mountains.

Every part of Vermont is at risk for serious flooding today and everyone should be bracing themselves. But I would say people who live within 50 miles either side of Route 7 between Rutland and the Canadian border really had better be on full alert. At least if the NOAA people are right about things. 

By the way, this scenario is also a potential scary problem all the way on up to Montreal.  Severe flash flooding in a big city like that is quite the nightmare. 

Bottom line: If you're in a safe place that's not flood prone, stay put today.  If you're in a flood prone area, be ready to bail at a moment's notice. Have a planned route to get out of Dodge, and remember to have your "to go" bin ready to take with you, containing medicines, important papers, etc. 

And for gawd's sake if you're driving and see the road ahead of you is covered in water, just turn around. Turning around will save your life, and the lives of any brave souls who tries to rescue you from the water. 

WE AREN'T THE ONLY ONES

A minor saving grace on Sunday is that rainfall in Vermont was not quite as widespread or heavy as predicted. That will ever so slightly lower the risk today, but not by a really noticeable margin.

Areas of New York's lower Hudson Valley and parts of Pennsylvania were not so lucky with the rain yesterday. Extreme flash flooding hit those areas.

In what I hope won't be a preview of what happens in Vermont today, more than six inches of rain poured down on West Point, New York in just  three hours. 

The entire area north of New York City had extreme flash flooding.  One woman died after being swept away by water while trying to flee her house. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said several people are missing and at least one home was swept away. 

Historic buildings at the West Point Academy are flooded and damaged. 

Severe flash flooding also struck eastern Pennsylvania and parts of New Jersey.  

Here in the Green Mountain State, be safe and Vermont Strong, everyone! 

BREAKING: Violent Tornado Kills At Least 23 In Mississippi

Storm chaser Max Olsen, @MesoMax919 on Twitter,
captured the massive Mississippi tornado illuminated'
by lightning last night. 

A powerful tornado or tornadoes swept through western and central Mississippi overnight, killing at least 23 people, and causing widespread destruction. 

Reports were still just coming in as of dawn today, but the towns of Silver City and Rolling Fork were devastated. 

The disaster in Mississippi adds a new tragedy to a tornado year that has already been busy and threatens to be more destructive than average as we head into peak severe storm season during the mid and late spring. 

This tornado was the most dangerous you can get due to its size, timing, forward speed  and location.  

It was clearly a powerful, wide tornado that had a forward speed of roughly 70 mph. That speed is often too fast to keep ahead of warnings. It happened at night, when people are either sleeping, or can't seen visual cues that something dangerous is headed their way. '

It also hit a part of the nation with lots of mobile homes and substandard housing which are particularly prone to a tornado's destructive power. 

The 23 deaths - and possibly more - add to the nine deaths from other tornadoes earlier this year.  And we haven't even gotten to the peak months for tornado deaths in April, May and June. 

In all of last year, only 23 people died in twisters, so at least as many people died in Mississippi last night as in all of 2022. That's tragic, to put it mildly. 

Some experts fear that unusually warm Gulf of Mexico waters will contribute extra heat and moisture to storm systems this spring. That is one ingredient needed for tornadoes.

I'll have updates as warranted on this later today.  

Wednesday Morning Update: A Weird Stormy Nation. Snow/Sleet To Hit Us In Vermont

A very colorful National Weather Service map means
a very stormy day for the U.S. All those pinks and
reds from Oregon to Maine are winter storm
and blizzard warnings. 

 As advertised, it's as stormy and weird in the U.S. as it can get as a strange weather pattern of very cold air in the Southwest, with unprecedented warm to hot air in the Southeast has become established. 

That kind of huge contrast always leads to storminess and that's definitely happening now. Vermont update is below, but I have to pause and look at how bizarre the weather is once again in the United States. 

STORMY, WEIRD NATION

The weather set up was  already getting volatile, judging from the strong storms and likely tornado in Mercer County, New Jersey on Tuesday that damaged a number of buildings. The National Weather Service will make a determination later today whether to confirm the storm as a twister.

A continuous line of winter storm warnings extends from eastern Nevada to coastal Maine, at least if you include the Canadian version of a winter storm warning over southern Ontario and Quebec. 

Blizzard warnings are embedded in that band in parts of Wyoming, the Dakotas and Minnesota. 

An  ice storm is still on deck in a long narrow strip from central Iowa, through the southern parts of Illinois, Michigan and Ontario, Canada and into western New York. 

Some severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado might occur today in parts of Oklahoma and Missouri, though luckily this does not look like it will be an intense outbreak. 

In California, Arizona and Nevada, high winds will buffet the region to make the unusually cold air feel even chillier. A cold storm in southern California in the coming days will produce some lowland flooding, and snow as low as 1,000 feet above sea level. That means the famous Hollywood sign could be covered in snow. People there have not seen snow that low in decades.

A rare blizzard warning is up for the mountains of Los Angeles and Ventura counties. Up to a foot of snow could fall at the 2,000 foot level, which is, again, incredibly low. Up to five feet of snow could pile up in the summits above 4,000 feet by Monday. I believe this is the first ever blizzard warning issued by the National Weather Service office in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, a huge area of the Southeast is set for all time record high temperatures for February. Readings of 80 degrees or above are forecast Thursday as far north as Washington DC.

VERMONT UPDATE

The Wednesday morning updated snowfall prediction map
from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington,
Areas north of Route 4 are expecting a solid 6-12 inches.
Less in southern Vermont due to a mix with sleet. 

With all these contrasts and that volatility, it's inevitable that we'll have a storm.  It's been advertised all week, and it does arrive tonight. 

The winter storm watch has been upgraded to a warning roughly north of Route 4.  A winter weather advisory is up along and south of Route 4. As expected, we've seen some minor adjustments in the snow totals. It looks like most places north of Route 4 can expect a solid 6 to 12 inches out of this. 

Areas to the south will see a bunch of sleet mix in especially as we had toward dawn tomorrow. That will keep accumulates down to four or five inches. 

On the bright side, the layer of warm air aloft that's producing the mixed precipitation is thick. That means rain will re-freeze on the way down to become sleet. There won't be much freezing rain, which is liquid and freezes on contact into a glaze when it hits the surface. 

It looks like the snow will start in southwestern Vermont at roughly 7 p.m. tonight, spread into central Vermont by around 9 p.m. and cover the north between 10 p.m. and midnight. 

The first wave of snow, and southern sleet will be the heaviest, coming through mostly between midnight and dawn Thursday.  A rumble or two of thunder is not out of the question during this. It will be challenging on the roads tomorrow morning, so I expect a lot of school closings and delays and trouble on the highways. 

I still see  a risk of a forecast bust with this. If the warm air aloft pushes further north than expected - which might happen - the heavier sleet would get further north into at least central Vermont, too. 

Most of Thursday will be in a sort of lull with light snow and sleet falling most of the day, but not amounting to a huge amount. The sleet mix looks like it might make it at least as far north as Route 2. 

Another wave of precipitation, not as big as the first, will come through later Thursday and Thursday night. This wave could have a little freezing rain with it in southern Vermont.  Northern Vermont will probably get another few inches of snow,  Some sleet might mix in across parts of the north Thursday evening, but that will trend more toward snow overnight. 

This storm will also end a remarkable 18 consecutive February days in Burlington that got above freezing. (Though it was below 32 degrees most of Wednesday, it was in the mid-30s just after midnight).

You'll be digging out in some real cold air on Friday. Highs will only be in the low teens with temperatures below zero in most places Friday night and early Saturday. 

A small storm will fling a few snowflakes at us amid milder temperatures Sunday. Another larger, messy storm seems likely Monday night and Tuesday. 

   

Friday Evening Snow Update: Surprise Snow Now Parts Of Vermont, Gearing Up For Storm #2

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington,
Vermont has already started making snowfall prediction 
maps for the next storm, due Sunday night and Monday.]
This one is so far expected to focus on southern 
Vermont, but as always, results may vary 
and are subject to change.

 Up until late this afternoon, the storm that started last night ended up with amounts close to forecast, and the system more or less behaved as expected. 

The general consensus was we'd receive 4 to 7 inches of snow, and as of late morning, most of central and northern Vermont came in with 3.5 to 6 inches. Light snow continued thereafter, so those amounts will end up a little higher.

The snowfall was remarkably uniform, with no big outliers of especially heavy or light accumulations. Except a few low elevations of southern Vermont under-performed a bit. 

But late this afternoon, snow seemed to be blossoming again. It's not super heavy, but it was starting to accumulate as of 5 p.m. Especially since temperatures, which had been a bit above freezing in many valleys all day, were slipping below freezing. 

Since it's getting colder, roads that had been just wet all day will get slick moving forward this evening. So be careful on those roads. Roads that look wet this evening might have patches of ice. Even Saturday morning, there will be some issues here and there as temperatures bottom out in the upper teens. 

It looks like we're in for another inch or two of snow before drier air infiltrates later tonight to shut off the snow. A few lucky devils will see three inches of new snow between now and Saturday morning. Or even a touch more than that. 

Saturday looks like a fantastic day to enjoy the new snow. It looks like we'll have a fair amount of sun, and temperatures will be comfortable - well into the 20s, with some 30s in low elevations south.  Then, we have Storm #2 to deal with.

STORM #2

This one's due to hit later Sunday, Sunday night and part of Monday. Unlike the storm that's just ending, this one so far looks like it wants to focus its snow on southern Vermont. 

It'll be another quick mover, so, like the storm we just had, the one coming Sunday night won't have a lot of time to dump its snow. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has issued a winter storm watch roughly south of a Brandon to Thetford line. In the watch zone there could be seven or more inches of snow with the new storm. 

Amounts will taper off as you head north and west, but, at least as it stands now, ski areas in central and possibly northern Vermont could get another half foot of snow. 

A few inches of additional snow will probably also grace the Champlain Valley.

Of course, all this comes with caveats: If the storm keeps trending further east, the amount of new snow by Monday morning would be less than forecast statewide. A slight jog to the northwest would bring heavier snow all the way to the northwestern tip of Vermont. 

It will be another relatively warm storm, but not quite as warm as we just had. The snow Sunday night probably won't be champagne powder, but it won't be a slushy mess, either. That's because temperatures during the bulk of the storm will probably be a few degrees below freezing for most of us

`STORM #3

Yes, forecasters still  have their eyes on Storm #3, due around Wednesday. This one MIGHT have more of an inland track, which opens the door to an ugly mess of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain even as far west as most of Vermont.

There's plenty of room for this forecast to change one way or another. Although there's a risk of a mess, I'm still thinking we'll end up with a net gain in snow cover after that one. But like I said, no guarantees.

We've been looking at signs that the weather pattern is trending colder in much of the U.S. after a warm first half of January. Most indications are this will continue. 

By the end of next week, we in Vermont could be looking at daytime highs somewhere either side of 20 and lows either side of zero. That is so typical of late January, but after the weather we've experienced since late December, it will come as a bit of shock. 

Longer range forecasts have Vermont with better than equal chances of somewhat chillier than normal weather in the opening days of February. Precipitation looks to be near normal, which likely means a series of light snowfalls after the two upcoming storms. 

As always, forecasts change, so I'll have updates as we get closer to the two upcoming storms.