Nepal Tragedy Likely Brought On By Climate Change, Scientists Say

This is Trishul Bazaar, Nepal, before and after the 
immense water and debris flow on August 26
World Weather Attribution says that climate
change was a very likely culprit in this calamity

 Climate change was a core contributing factor in last month's horrific glacial mountain collapse and mega-flash flood and debris flow that killed thousands of people in Nepal last month. 

The death toll made this disaster was especially horrific. In Nepal, 1,403 bodies had been recovered as of last week. The number of missing people has been revised upward to 6,150.  In neighboring Tibet, 43 are known dead and 519 are missing. 

Several factors went into the disaster, but climate change got the ball rolling,  according to  a report from World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists who study how individual disasters are influenced and often made worse by climate change

"Relentless warming has lifted the altitude of the freezing threshold on the high Himalayas, exposing ic and permafrost deep in the bedrock to higher and longer thaw temperatures, weakening mountain slopes," according to the report.

World Weather Attribution formed a team of researchers from ten countries. They were experts in glaciology, mountain hydrology, climate science, humanitarian aid, seismology and social science to study how this calamity unfolded and what caused it. 

The disaster started when a large rock wall collapsed on the Langtang Lirung Mountain, elevation 23,734 feet. The rock slide also caused part of an overlying glacier to collapse. The rock-ice avalanche quick turned into an incredible debris and water flood that traveled downstream at speeds of up to 117 mph. 

The calamity happened on August 26, but may have had its roots in 2015. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake that year might have further weakened the slope, but the precise role of that earthquake remains uncertain, says WWA. 

 Then there's climate change

"Warming and permafrost degradation likely weakened the source rock wall by increasing bedrock temperatures and thawing ice within fractures. Loss of ice bonding reduces fracture strength, while meltwater can increase water pressure and further destabilize pre-existing geological weaknesses. Thus, permafrost degradation may have acted aa an additional climate-related factors pre-conditioning the slope for failure." 

On top of that, glaciers in the region have been losing mass for decades under the onslaught of climate change. Since 2010, the rate loss of the Lantang-Lirung glacier has accelerated. Thinning glaciers can change stresses on adjacent rock walls, which in turn can increase slope instability. Combined with more meltwater than in earlier decades. It's possible this could  have worsened the event. 

All this is because it's above freezing at higher and higher elevations in the Himalayas more frequently due to climate change.  

It didn't help that the area where this disaster started, and the river valley it pummeled, had their warmest July and August on record. This came after unusually heavy snowfall in late 2025 which contributed extra meltwater before the collapse. 

 WWA wouldn't go so far as to say that this disaster couldn't have happened in the days before climate change really started to alter the world. It would require a lot more study to absolutely prove the connection. "Rapidly rising temperatures at a rate beyond the global mean as a result of fossil fuel emissions increase the likelihood and severity such hazards in the Himalayas, WWA concluded.

In other words, this could happen again.  

With this in mind, Nepal is planning to use the World Weather Attribution study to request $20 million from the United Nations. It's from the UN Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, which helps countries affected by climate change. 

If the funding goes through, it will be a drop in the bucket compared to what Nepal needs. It's estimated that Nepal will need about $5 billion to recover from this tragedy. 

They've always warned us climate change would be expensive, and there you go. 

 

 

 

 

Grand Canyon Flash Flood Kills At Least Two, 15 Missing As More Flash Floods Loom

Countless logs and debris floats in a
tributary of the Colorado River in
the Grand Canyon after a severe
flash flood. At least two people died,
and 15 are missing. More flash
floods are underway today. 

A massive flash flood blasted through a canyon in Grand Canyon National Park canyon flood.

So far, two people have been confirmed dead in the flash flood. 

The National Park Service said it recovered the body of a 46-year old man from the Crystal Rapids along the Colorado River. About 15 people are still unaccounted for. The flooding was concentrated along Bright Angel Creek, a tributary of the Colorado River. 

As of early Sunday 62 people had been evacuated from Phantom Ranch and the lower North Kaibab Trail. Additional evacuations are expected. 

In one area, park rangers ordered people to run as fast as they could across a foot bridge to safety. Moments later, the bridge collapsed. 

Phantom Ranch is a lodge at the bottom of the Grand Canyon, on the east side of Bright Angel Creek, a little over a half mile north of the Creek's confluence with the Colorado River. 

Footbridges along Bright Angel Creek were destroyed. The flash flood also destroyed part of the Transcanyon Waterline, which supplies water for the park's use. 

Phantom Ranch, Bright Angel Campground, Phantom Ranch Canteen, North Kaibab Trail, the Black and Silver bridges and traffic to the Colorado River are closed until further notice. 

Overnight accommodations at the park have been suspended for now, and water restrictions go into effect today. 

Video showed muddy, debris-filled water rushing through the canyon. Pieces of buildings and/or RVs floated in the water. 

WHY THE FLOOD HAPPENED

Flash floods often occur this time of year in and around the Grand Canyon, but this was far worse than the usual episodes of high water. 

Near where the worst of the flooding occurred,  1.24 inches of rain fell, including 0.84 inches within an hour.

That might sound like much to those of us in the humid East, but the steep landscape of rocks and sand does not readily absorb water. Downpours tend to run off into flash floods. 

The Southwest is in the middle of its annual monsoon season, when moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico are drawn into the deserts by the circulation created by an atmospheric heat dome of high pressure near the region.  

This year's monsoon is wetter for several reasons.Underlying it all is climate change. A warmer atmosphere can hold more water, especially  under the right conditions. So monsoon rains have been in general getting heavier over the years. 

In Arizona, monsoon rainfall is becoming more intense even as daily average rainfall in the state has decreased. In other words Arizona is having fewer rainy days, but when it does rain it more often comes in torrents leading to flash floods. 

It's worse this year because a record breaking El Nino is heating up the eastern Pacific Ocean waters to record heights. A separate "marine heat wave" is making Pacific waters hot further north. The combination is adding a lot of humidity to the Desert Southwest air, creating more an overload of atmospheric moisture.

Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Iselle were also drawn into the volatile atmospheric mix over Arizona. 

Deluges have been the result. 

MORE FLOODS?

It'll be just as bad today, if not worse in some areas. 

Today, we have a risk of flash floods across all of Arizona, almost all of Utah, the western half of Colorado and western New Mexico. 

The risk of dangerous flash floods is especially high in northern Arizona, including Grand Canyon National Park and in southern and central Utah.  

By late morning local time, flash warnings were up in parts of Utah. The storms will intensify during this afternoon, so the flooding will surely become more widespread. 

The flood risk will diminish tomorrow and the day after - for now. 

Computer models suggest a dying tropical storm early next will send extreme amounts of moisture into southern California, Arizona and Nevada. Big time severe flood could result if this scenario proves accurate. 

Flash Flood Risk Growing In Vermont, And Rest Of The Northeast

A strong thunderstorm seen here approaching St. Albans,.
Vermont from the southeast, instead of the west like
we'd usually see from storms. This storm was part of 
an opening salvo of storms that is bringing a 
flood threat to southern Vermont through tomorrow 

 I was afraid this would happen. 

The flash flood risk is growing notably in parts of Vermont, and a large chunk of the Northeast. 

A flood watch is now in effect for central and southern Vermont. The areas under the watch can expect one to three inches of rain through tomorrow evening. That doesn't sound so bad, until you consider there could well be some streaks of three to five inch amounts in that zone. 

The flood risk has already started.

If you're in the southern half of Vermont - especially if you're in or near the Green Mountains, prepare for local areas of flash flooding anytime between now and during the day tomorrow. 

This weather setup reminds me a little of the way things arranged themselves for the big July flood of 2023,  That said, I don't want to give you a flareup of PTSD.  This weather pattern IS NOT as intense or as capable of producing widespread like it did in July, 2023,  But I expect at least some pockets of flood damage in the Green Mountain State. 

THE UPDATE

All this is based on weather data that came in late this morning and early afternoon. That data doesn't exactly paint a pretty picture. Rainfall will be heavier in many areas than we thought early this morning. 

 Early this afternoon, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center extended a moderate risk of flash flooding between now and tomorrow morning through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and southwestern New England into far southern Vermont. 

A moderate risk, level three out of four, almost guarantees at least some flash flooding. A thick moisture feed combining with the instability brought on by a pesky upper level low over the Northeast could produce as much as five inches of rain within six hours in some local areas within the moderate risk area. 

The slight risk of flash flooding, level 2 out of 4 risk level, now extends north almost to Route 2. There's a good chance of some instance of local flooding in central Vermont between now and tomorrow night, especially along the east slopes of the Green Mountains. 

A marginal risk, one out of four covers far northern Vermont for the chance of very isolated flooding. 

Thunderstorms blossomed rapidly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains early this afternoon. The last one to develop seemed to come out of almost nowhere in Franklin County in the mid-afternoon and it was strong enough to carry a severe thunderstorm warning. It also came from an unusual direction - from the southeast rather than the west they way storms usually do.

That motion is a clue that we're getting a lot of moisture off the Atlantic Ocean for the atmosphere to play with. 

The storms were moving right along at a brisk pace, so any one storm wouldn't drop much rain in a particular place. The trouble will come if and where multiple stores move over the same place over and over again.

I have noticed that downpours in far southern Vermont have been looking pretty persistent this afternoon, but so far, as of 4 p.m., there were not flood alerts in effect. But this is the place to watch through this evening, as these storms will feature the heaviest rain of this whole three-day rainy event.  

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

The developing area of low pressure heading toward New York and southern New England will set up a sort of fire hose of moisture moving southeast to northwest from southern New England through southern Vermont, then weakening as it moves further north into upper Vermont and the Adirondack. 

This set up will really soak the summits and eastern slopes of the southern and maybe central Green Mountains, That will keep the flood risk going through most of tomorrow. The rain might not be as heavy as the locally torrential downpours today, but the rain could easily be strong enough to keep the flood risk going, 

The flood risk will diminish as you go north toward the Canadian border

For now, storm totals look like they'll run three to five inches in far southern Vermont, with local amounts as high as six or seven inches especially in the mountains. So you can see why this weather system is risky. 

The central Green Mountains look to have one to three inches, with perhaps locally higher amounts.  Northwest Vermont should get maybe three quarters on an inch, give or take, again with locally higher amounts. 

The Northeast Kingdom will largely miss out, as forecasts stand now. Some places up there might receive only a quarter inch of rain. 

Meanwhile, most of southern New England is under a flood alert through tomorrow, 

CAVEATS/WHAT TO DO

As always, things could change one way or another overnight. Heavy storms like this can shift the heaviest rain a few miles in unexpected directions, which could affect who gets the worst of flooding, if any. 

So, if you live in southern Vermont, be ready for at least some localized flash floods. Much of this could happen after dark, and it's hard to see washouts and flooding ahead when you're driving at night. 

If you live in a flood prone area, especially where water can rush off of steep slopes, have a to-go bag ready, just in case. You might have to leave at the drop of a hat.  

Again, not everyone in southern Vermont will have a flash flood. But it's a big enough threat to stay on your toes through tomorrow. 

We've already had a few instances of flash flooding this summer in Vermont. Looks like this will be another. In our climate changed world, this kind of thing has become more likely than it was a few decades ago

 

Some Vermont Flash Flooding Reported; Hot, Humid Weather Today, Tomorrow With Storm Threats

Flash flood damage in Walcott. Photo by Ashelyn 
Burroughs via Facebook 

The humidity is here and we're already wilting. And getting pretty wet in the process. We have two more days to go in this oppressive spell here in Vermont. Followed by a warm weekend and several chances of thunderstorms. Some might be severe tomorrow.

So let's get into it. 

First of all, I mentioned the other day we've entered flash flood season. Vermont had its first instance of trouble yesterday amid the slow moving storms 

They were  hit and miss, and most of us were fine. But the National Weather Service in South Burlington had to issue a flash flood warning for a section of north central Vermont for heavy rains. 

Sure enough, flood damage was reported around Wolcott and Hardwick. Part of East Hill Road in Hardwick had to close for flood damage. So did a section of Bunker Hill Road in Hardwick. 

I was also concerned last night about a nearly stalled area of heavy rain along the International border near and east or Newport, but so far, I haven't heard of any trouble there. 

Now let's look at what's hitting us next:

TODAY

We started off nasty enough with gray skies, temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s and dew points at similar levels.  

We'll get well into the 80s today as that humidity continues. A few places, especially in southeast Vermont could easily top 90 degrees.  A heat advisory for "real feel" temperatures in the mid-90s is in effect in the lower Connecticut River Valley from roughly White River Junction south. 

It'll feel almost as bad in the rest of Vermont. Usually the Champlain Valley is another hot spot, but clouds and showers might keep temperatures just under 90 degrees. We'll see.

Speaking of those showers and thunderstorms, they'll roam the state again today. I'm getting somewhat mixed messages from various sources and models as to how widespread they'll be. One model, the HRRR, was fairly blasé, firing up some southern Vermont storms and maybe an isolated one in central Vermont. 

Other models get up to 60 percent of us wet by late afternoon or evening via showers and storms. In any event, they won't be as widespread as yesterday. The flash flood threat is also very low, though there could be some isolated trouble again because some storms will produce torrential rains. 

FRIDAY

We have an exciting weather day ahead with oppressive heat and the risk of strong storms 

The atmosphere over Vermont will reach its hottest point of this stretch of misery on Friday. After a stuffy overnight, temperatures will soar to 90 degrees or more in many places, espeicalluy the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River valleys, where heat advisories are in effect again. The western parts of Rutland and Bennington counties are included in tomorrow's heat advisory. 

The National Weather Service is mulling whether to expand tomorrow's heat advisories, but will wait for more data before deciding whether to pull the trigger. 

It will be another very humid day. Definitely take it easy out there and don't work too hard. Three days of sticky, ugly weather accumulates the heat stress.  Plus, this is the first big hot, humid spell of the season, so we're not quite used to it yet. 

While you're suffering from the heat, you're also going to need access to weather warnings, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. 

It looks like conditions will be a little better to form severe storms than we thought yesterday. The instability will be super high, so that will be a factor. An approaching cold front will start to cool the upper atmosphere and increase winds aloft. 

All those are ingredients for severe storms. The winds aloft won't be super strong, which might be limiting factor. But at this point, at least a few severe storms with strong winds are a decent bet. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a level 2 out of five alert level fort severe storms. 

WARM WEEKEND

This first cold front won't have much cold air behind it. Saturday and Sunday will feature highs in the 80s. It'll be somewhat less humid, though. Another cold front will come in on Sunday with more showers and storms. Depending on the timing of the front, we could see another risk of severe storms .

Decidedly cooler weather comes in for the first part of next week with highs in the near-normal 70s.  

 

Stats Confirm: This July Is Yet Another Hot One, Third One In A Row

A severe thunderstorm over Lamoille County on 
July 10, as seen from a distance from Williston
Vermont. Other than that date, severe 
weather was pretty infrequent in our hot,
humid Vermont July, 2025

 I'm sure you felt and melted in Vermont's tropical July, 2025, and I have the receipts to prove it.

This July was another summer month that didn't really feel like Vermont.   

In Burlington, the mean temperature was 74.6, tying with 1975 and 1995 as the sixth warmest on record. 

This was the third July in a row that was among the top ten warmest on record.  Six of the top 10 warmest Julys have happened since 2018. 

Montpelier had its fifth warmest July on record. 

Unlike June, there was never any super extreme heat. No record highs. The heat was fairly persistent, but not as relentless as last year. We managed to see a substantial break in the tropical conditions on July 20-23 and the 31st. 

Still,  Burlington had eight days that got to 90 degrees or more. Only ten other Julys in the past 125 years had as many or more such days. 

It's telling how much climate change has altered our perception of a "normal" summer.    Under the "new normal" which is the average of temperatures between 1990 and 2020,  July in Burlington was a mere 2.2 degrees above this warmer "average".

Average temperature were much lower in most of the 20th century, of course. In July, 1975. the month Burlington just  tied with for sixth warmest, was at the time more than five degrees warmer than average. 

Rainfall

July in Vermont was dry, except in the Northeast Kingdom, parts of which had a destructive flash flood on July 10.  The month was also a little on the wet side in the extreme northwest. Burlington was close to normal, while my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected a pretty soggy 6.5 inches of July rain. 

Extreme southwest Vermont was also a little on the wet side, but overall, most of the state was dry. A lot of places missed out on many of the typical midsummer shower and thunderstorms.

So far, drought hasn't developed, thanks to the wet spring and early summer.   Given the current forecast, though, I think some parts of Vermont will soon be declared "abnormally dry" though not in drought unless the rain falters for weeks on end. 

St. Johnsbury, having endured by far its wettest month on record last July with an incredible 17 inches of rain, was one of the driest spots in Vermont this year. They only had about 2.4 inches of rain, or about half the usual installment for July. Rutland came up about two inches short for July rainfall 

St Johnsbury is just south of the area hit be the July 10 flash floods in the Northeast Kingdom, which really was the only real extreme weather event of the month, other than the heat and humidity. The July 10 event severely damaged at least a couple homes, and washed away sections of road in Sutton, West Burke and East Haven. 

Thick wildfire smoke from Canada obscures the view for
these fishing enthusiasts at St. Albans Bay,
Vermont on July 26

That same day, severe thunderstorms in Addison County caused some flooding, and tore part of the roof off of Middlebury Union High School.  

Other than that, there were only widely scattered instances of severe thunderstorm damage in Vermont during July, which is usually the peak of what passes for the Green Mountain States severe storm season. 

The other hazard we dealt with was wildfire smoke from Canada. That's been happening most summers lately, in part another negative consequence of climate change. 

 Unlike in the upper Midwest, the smoke in Vermont usually wasn't that bad this July, 

Except on July 26, when the air quality in Vermont was some of the worst ever seen. 

LOOKING AHEAD

In June, NOAA released its outlook for July, indicating it would be a hot month around here. They were right. That forecast also leaned hesitantly toward July being a wee bit wetter than normal.  I give that a win, too, since a few places in Vermont had some extra precipitation, while others were dry.  

As we know, August is opening with cool weather. That won't last. Forecasts have us shifting to warmer than normal temperatures by Sunday afternoon, 

We lose about an hour and a half of daylight, so normal temperatures will start to cool, especially during the second half of the month.  That's only if we have some semblance of a typical pattern.

We do know that after we get through today and tomorrow, odds lean really heavily toward above normal temperatures through mid-month, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

Precipitation chances during the first half of the month in this forecast seem to be near normal, maybe ever so slightly leaning toward heavier than normal toward mid month. 

Beyond mid month, forecasts get even more tenuous. The deeper into the future you go, the higher the odds forecasts will be off. Still, NOAA's three to four week outlook released today still leans pretty strongly toward above normal temperatures here. Rainfall is a tossup between above or below normal, so take your guess. 

Texas Flood Tragedy News Keeps Getting Worse, Dozens Dead, Many Missing; And How It Happened

Aftermath of the Texas flood. At last report at least
27 people had been confirmed dead, and that toll
was expected to rise

 I don't even know where to begin to start with the immense flood tragedy in the Hill Country of Texas, northwest of San Antonio. 

As I wrote this early Saturday afternoon, CBS was reporting 27 deaths so far - 18 adults and nine children. 

A lot of people are still missing -- officials haven't yet told us how many. We know about a dozen people, mostly children are missing from a Camp Mystic, a childrens' camp along the Guadalupe River.

If you try really hard you get glean some good news out of the tragedy. As of Saturday morning, around 850 people had been rescued. There have been 160 air rescues, and as of this writing, swarms of aircraft, drones and boats were looking for more people. 

There have been some amazing tales of survival. KENS in San Antonio reported one woman had been swept 20 miles downstream and over four dams before being rescued from a cypress tree today. The woman reportedly had just minor injuries. 

While I'm sure there will be other tales of survival, I'm dreading what the final death toll might look like. Not to mention the extreme damage to homes and businesses through a big part of central Texas. 

HOW IT HAPPENED

The Texas tragedy had its roots in Tropical Storm Barry, a completely forgettable, weak tropical storm that splashed ashore in northeastern Mexico last Sunday. 

Barry drew extremely humid air into Texas - extraordinarily steamy even by Texas standards. A small drifting low pressure system over central Texas drew in and consolidated that moisture.  This is Texas Hill country, so the winds were forced to rise upward as ti traveled from the Gulf of Mexico to the   rising elevations west of San Antonio, helping to unleash the floods.

This upslope flow has happened there frequently and has often caused floods,  Enough to this area of Texas is sometimes known as flash flood alley. 

The upslope flow, the remnants of Barry, the subtle low pressure system, the extreme humidity all converged over the Guadalupe River drainage basin and its surroundings. And just sat there. The result was extreme rainfall. 

The fact that a crucial ingredient to this tragedy was a former tropical storm shows that people are not necessarily safe after a tropical storm or hurricane makes landfall.  These things can produce floods far from the where the system came ashore. 

Even here in Vermont. The remnants of Hurricane Beryl were a key ingredient of the extreme floods last  July 10-11 in the Green Mountain State.  

Back in 1995, another fairly lame tropical storm named Dean came ashore in Texas, much like Beryl did. Even though Dean was weak, its remnants interacted with a stalled weather front to produce severe flooding across northern and central Vermont - nearly 2,000 miles from where it made landfall. 

We also have to remind ourselves that climate change has made downpours and storms often more intense than they otherwise would have been decades ago. I do not know to what extent climate change influenced this flood, but I suspect it was at least a small factor. 

THE FLOOD FORECAST AND NOAA CUTBACKS

Some officials in Texas are blaming cutbacks at NOAA and the National Weather Service because of the Trump administration and is DOGE federal worker slash and burn program earlier this year.  Their claim is the forecast underplayed the amount of rain that ultimately fell. 

Those DOGE cutbacks might well cause forecasting errors and in fact might have already done so in other circumstances.  

As Texas meteorologist Matt Lanza explains in his blog The Eyewall, the flash flood was well forecasted, even if the amount of rain that actually fell was unimaginable. 

National Weather Service Forecasts on Thursday gave the region a slight risk of flash flooding, which might have created a false sense of security. Lanza said some high resolution forecast models predicted the huge amounts of rain that in fact materialized.  In hindsight (my opinion here) those models should have perhaps been taken more seriously. But hindsight is of course 20/20.

In any event, the National Weather Service issued flash flood warnings shortly before midnight Thursday as the rains began to fall in earnest. In the early morning hours, the NWS declared issued flash flood emergencies, which triggers automatic warnings on everybody's cell phones.

Lanza said the NOAA budget cutbacks did not appear to play a role in this tragedy. Much has been made of cutbacks in weather balloon launches, which offer critical information on impeding storms. The National Weather Service office in Del Rio, Texas, and data from those launches helped prompt the NWS issue those dire "hair on fire" flash flood warnings. 

Then the question was, how were those flash flood warnings received? Or were they?

A blame game has already started. 

Per the Associated Press: 

'AccuWeather, a private weather forecasting business said it also issued flash flood warnings and blamed camp directors for the tragedy. "These warmings should have provided officials with ample time to evacuate camps such as Camp Mystic and get people to safety,' "

As noted, this part of Texas is particularly prone to flash flooding. Lanza asks a great question: "Do we need to start thinking of every risk of flooding as a potential high-end event we should pre-evacuate the highest risk people (like children and elderly in floodways) for? Is that even practical?"

Some variation of that question is a great one to ask anywhere in the U.S., including here in Vermont. Climate change is helping make downpours more intense, and more likely to cause floods, or make floods worse than they otherwise would be.  

FLASH FLOODS DANGEROUS

We do know that flash floods are extremely dangerous, and the United State has a long history of flash flood tragedies.  

Perhaps the most famous and deadly flash flood in U.S. history was the Johnstown, Pennsylvania flood of 1889, which killed more than 2,200 people. Johnstown was hit again in 1977 in a flash flood that killed 84 people. 

Other examples of horrible flash floods include one that hit Rapid City, South Dakota and adjacent areas of the Black Hills in 1972, resulting in 238 lives lost. A flash flood in Big Thompson Canyon, Colorado in 1976 claimed 144 lives. 

Flash flooding in Kentucky killed 45 people in 2022.  Another flash flood in San Antonio on June 12 killed 13 people. 

Additional flash flooding has hit parts of central Texas today. As of early this afternoon a new flash flood emergency was in effect for Burnet County, Texas and parts of Williamson and Travis County. Six to 14 inches of rain fell there last night and this morning. 

This includes parts of the Austin metropolitan area,   The latest update is two people are dead and 10 are missing from this new round of flooding. 

It goes on and on. 

 

BREAKING: Multiple Fatalities Reported In Catastrophic Texas Flood

Extreme flood damage in Kerrville, Texas today. 
Multiple fatalities feared from flash flood overnight
and today after 10+ inches of rain fell in just hours.

 An extreme, catastrophic flash flood killed an unknown number of people northwest of San Antonio, Texas. Early reports suggest the death toll could be high. 

Local media confirmed six deaths as of early this afternoon. 

But many more are missing, including an unknown number of  children who were at more than a dozen summer camps along the Guadalupe River in and near Kerrville, Texas.

Kerrville is about 60 miles northwest of San Antonio. .

Thankfully, many of the summer camps along the river reported all children at their respective locations were accounted for and had been moved to safe places. 

Around 10 inches of rain fell in a matter of hours overnight. The river rose 22 feet in over three hours. Downstream in Comfort, Texas, the river rose 26 feet in just 45 minutes. 

The Guadalope is usually not much more than a trickle over the summer. Its banks are lined with RV parks, summer camps and vacation cabins. Most of which were busy for the Fourth of July holiday.

The storm's timing could not have been worse, catching people unaware in the pre-dawn hours as they slept.  The river in many cases rose too fast to get out of the way in time. 

Video on social media and witness accounts described houses, cars and RVs racing along the rapids of the Guadalupe River. Video also showed rescuers on boats plucking people clinging to trees just above the fast flowing water. 

The flooding was still unfolding this afternoon as a powerful flood crest blasted downstream.  Hasty evacuations were ongoing. 

The Guadalupe River flood last night and today comes less than a month after another extreme rainstorm unleashed a flash flood in San Antonio that swept numerous cars away, killing 13 people. 

In that case, about four inches of rain fell in just one hour. 

These two Texas tragedies are part of an increasing trend toward extreme flash floods in the age of climate change. The warmer atmosphere can hold more water, and under the right conditions, can unload torrential rains much heavier than most storms in the past. 

We saw something like this last July 30 in Vermont, when a local storm across the Northeast Kingdom dumped more than eight inches of rain in a few hours, causing catastrophic floods in and near Lyndonville. 

The Texas Guadalupe River flood is a developing story. We'll have more in future posts. 

VIDEO

Scenes of destruction around Kerrville, Texas in a news video. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Vermont To Get A Taste Of National Storminess: Severe Storm And Flash Flood Threat

UPDATE 1  PM

Boaters head for shore on Lake Champlain near 
Alburgh, Vermont Friday as threatening thunderstorm
clouds loom overhead, Today will bring numerous
storms to the state and a few could contain
damaging winds and/or flash floodingUPDATE 1 PM

A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for all of Vermont, most of New York State and western New Hampshire

Damaging winds and hail are the primary threats but there's still a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado, 

If this morning is any indication, there's a good chance some of this afternoon's storms could be rambunctious. 

The supposedly "weaker" round of storms this morning were pretty strong

knocking down a couple trees in Northfield Falls, Vermont 

A few locations had hail up to the size of nickels. 

Conditions are even more favorable for strong to severe storms this afternoon than they were this morning, hence the storm watch.

This morning's storms had a TON Of lightning and torrential rains, so those are also dangers. Flash flooding is possible if repeated storms hit the same areas. There has already been flash flooding around Cambridge, Vermont, with water washing out driveway and damaging Route 15 a little east of the Wrong Way Bridge. At last report, Route 15 was closed in that area. 

As of 1 p.m., strong storms were gathering force over central New York and heading our way. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Today will be a day in Vermont where you want to keep an eye to the skies. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop.  A few of them might be locally strong to severe. There's also a local flash flood threat. 

It's Saturday, I guess we have to expect bad weather in the Green Mountain State. 

This won't be nearly as dire as the weather mayhem that struck the Midwest Friday, but we'll need to keep an eye out. (The tornadoes and other storms in the Midwest and South are the subject of another post I'm working for today, so stay tuned for that).

The Vermont mini-drama started to some extent Friday, as scattered thunderstorms developed. They prompted two severe thunderstorm warnings, one in north central Vermont and one near the Canadian border in Franklin County. 

We have no reports of damage in Vermont, but the one that threatened Franklin County caused some tree and wire damage in the town of Mooers, in far northeastern New York. The storm weakened as it crossed the border into Vermont.

SEVERE STORMS

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a Level 2 risk of severe weather on a one to five point scale. That means there should be a scattering of severe storms, meaning they'll pack winds of at least 58 mph and/or hail at least the size of quarters. 

A cold front will be approaching from the west, which will interact with the humid air over us to set off the storms.

Today. the air is unstable and humid enough in the Green Mountain State to create multiple rounds of heavy showers and storms.  Most of them will come through in the afternoon and evening. 

But they could hit at anytime. A couple small downpours with a little lightning formed over the Green Mountains of northern Vermont around dawn today for instance. More storms were forming in central Vermont and heading northeast as of 8 a.m.

Some models have one round of storms coming through mid to late morning, and more in the afternoon and early evening.  Timing with these things is iffy, so don't hold the timing I gave as gospel. 

While pretty much all of us will get wet, very few of us will see a severe storm or flash flood. Still, some towns will get nailed. It's impossible to tell which ones until just before it happens.  Also, remember that even in non-severe storms, lightning is dangerous so you should be inside even if you get hit by a garden variety storm. 

High winds are the primary risk from today's expected storms. However, there's a very, very low but not zero chance of a brief spinup tornado in Vermont if a supercell thunderstorm or two can get going today,

By the way, today's is NOT the day for a boating excursion on Lake Champlain.

FLASH FLOODING

Since some areas will have several downpours today, that opens the door to possible flash flooding.  Yes, here we go again. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has much of Vermont in a level two of four risk of excessive rain or flooding. That would mean scattered instances of flash flooding, but nothing widespread 

Some today's storms could have rainfall rates of one to as much as two inches per hours. Luckily, the storms will be moving right along instead of lingering in one place, so most downpours shouldn't last that long. 

But in Vermont's steep terrain, rainfall of that magnitude can spell trouble.  I don't expect widespread flooding, but there could well be an instance or two of gravel roads partially washed out, culvert problems, and basement flooding. 

It also looks like there there will be subtle weather front stretched west to east across northern or central Vermont, which might be the focus of repeated downpours, so that will have to be watched.

Now, most of us will only see a half inch to an inch of rain today, not enough to cause problems. It's those local areas that see two or three inches that will create issues. 

Bottom line: Be ready to hear weather warnings that might blare from the National Weather Service today. 

On the bright side, main stem rivers will show rises, but none of them are expected to hit flood stage.

OUTLOOK

The flooding threat will be over tomorrow, but the rain won't. Today's the last day of summer weather for a long time. We have a mostly wet, chilly week to look forward to.

A cold upper level low will be nearby Sunday, ensuring that we have frequent mostly light showers, Temperatures will only be in the 50 and low 60s, quite a change from what we've seen. 

Monday will be even worse, as cloudy skies and scattered showers continue. Highs will barely make it into the low 50s. It should be near 70 this time of year. Tuesday should be almost as chilly, but with a lower chance of rain. 

The forecast for several days ahead gets more uncertain, but chances are high that the second half of the upcoming week will be chilly and rainy.

 

Another Summer Of Fires And Floods Looming? We're Off To A Bad Start

Satellite photo shows two smoke plumes from large
fires in northeast Minnesota merging into a cloud of
smoke crossing the border into Canada. 

Fire and flood. 

I guess it's going to be that kind of summer. Again.  

As of yesterday, forest fires were raging Minnesota, Arizona, and up in Canada.

Our neighbors to the north were experiencing large fires in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario. I'm sure it's just a matter of time before we start seeing the smoke here in Vermont. 

Meanwhile, destructive and dangerous flash floods hit Tuesday in Maryland and West Virginia.  

Lately, probably in part due to climate change our summers in the United States are either under water or on fire.  Hot, dry weather is hotter and drier, so wildfires can burn more easily. 

Meanwhile those of us who get storminess experience especially heavy rains and flooding. Remember, warmer air can hold more moisture, so if conditions are right, that humid air can dump extra heavy rain. 

It's already been a bad year for both wildfires and floods in the United States.  Summer is the peak season for both, so put on your seat belts, it's going to be a rough ride. 

Here are some specific trouble spots currently

NORTHERN US/SOUTHERN CANADA

The hot dry, weather continued unabated in the northern Plains and adjacent Canada. Normally frigid Grand Forks, North Dakota "endured" its coldest day since Saturday. It only got to 96 degrees Tuesday, obviously shattering another record high for the date.

Normally it's in the low to mid 60s there this time of year.

Winnipeg and Carman, Manitoba, Canada reached 98 degrees Tuesday. 

The arid weather and high winds have really fueled wildfires on both sides of the border. 

In Minnesota, the North Woods is a vast stretch of trees dotted with vacation homes and cabins. So far, an estimated 140 structures have been destroyed in the huge fires burning in these woods.  The word "unprecedented" keeps coming up in Minnesota.

Unprecedented heat.  Unprecedented fires spreading in unprecedented ways.

As KARE reports, a typical year in Minnesota brings total of 1,190 mostly small wildfires that burn about 12,000 acres.

Just five months into 2025, 970 wildfires have burned 37,000 acres.  The acreage scorched will increase rapidly, as the largest fires were still 0 percent contained as of last night. Today will be another hot, dry, windy day in Minnesota.

The good news is rain and colder temperatures will sweep into the Northern Plains, including Minnesota starting tomorrow and continuing through Friday night. 

Meanwhile evacuations were ongoing in southeastern Manitoba, Canada as forest fires spread in the province.

Fires were burning in Canada from British Columbia to Quebec, raising the specter and fears like the incredibly destructive and - here's that word again - unprecedented Canadian wildfire year of 2023.

SOUTHWEST US

Meanwhile, the fire danger has gotten critical in the United States southwest, especially in New Mexico and eastern Arizona.

A new wildfire started near Greer, Arizona, forcing evacuations of much of that town and reportedly destroying several homes.

FLASH FLOODS

Flash flooding in western Maryland Tuesday. 

Parts of the Mid-Atlantic states had the opposite problem: Flash flooding created a lot of damage and hasty evacuations on Tuesday,.

A flash flood emergency was declared in western Maryland, where students in two elementary schools had to be evacuated by boat after water quickly rose around the schools.  All students ended up being reported safe after the evacuations.  

Video showed cars bobbing in deep floodwaters in the school parking lot while a rushing river raced down streets in Westernport, Maryland.

Destructive flash floods also hit parts of West Virginia Tuesday.  Southern Pennsylvania was also hit by flash flooding Tuesday, flooding streets and homes and forcing evacuations in Meyersdale. 

More flooding is possible in scattered areas of the United States for the next week as several storm systems pass through. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Here in the Green Mountain State, we're still having Goldilocks weather, at least compared to everybody else. 

Warm but not hot weather so far this week will continue through Saturday before a cool down hits. 

It will also turn rainier on Friday and the weekend, with showers and thunderstorm likely, though so far, it looks like the rain won't be heavy enough to cause flooding. That will have to be watched, though, as the air will turn humid Friday and Saturday, opening the door for local downpours and thunderstorms. 

 

It's Winter Somewhere! Surprisingly Strong Snowstorm/Blizzard Strikes New Mexico/Colorado

Aftermath of the big snow over the past
few days in North Colorado Springs,
Colorado. Photo by Matthew Soifer
via Facebook.

 The nation's first big disruptive snowstorm of the winter season is hitting New Mexico and Colorado, and we are starting the winter with a doozy. 

Widespread travel disruptions hit areas Thursday  from Albuquerque to Denver and beyond.  Snow totals were impressive to say the least.

Fort Garland, Colorado reported 53 inches Trinidad, Colorado came in with 44 inches. Beulah, Colorado and Angel Fire, New Mexico had 40 inches. 

The interesting thing is some of the biggest snow totals were out in the High Plains east and south of Colorado Springs and Denver, and not necessarily so much in the mountains. 

Colorado Springs had at least 20 inches.

Denver's 20 inches of snow was their 11th biggest snowstorm on record and third biggest in November. 

Luckily, the snow totals in the cities situated in some of relatively lower elevations sound worse than they are. The snowfall was spread over several days  

The still-warm ground melted some of the snow from below. The snow in Denver fell over the course of five days and the snow depth peaked at 13 inches. The multi-day duration was mostly because this was really two storms in one. 

The snow depth in Colorado Springs never really got deeper than eight inches. 

However the snow did manage to pile up on elevated surfaces like roofs, and trees and sheds, causing some damage. 

The drawback to having the snow fall over several days is that flight delays and cancellations really ramped up at Denver Airport. It has since stopped snowing, so the airports in the region are clearing the backlog of flights. 

  New Mexico's governor declared a state of emergency Thursday for much of the northern part of the state as the early season wet snowstorm cut power from Albuquerque to Santa Fe, cutting power to thousands of people.

The leaves were still on the trees in many areas, which made the situation much worse. The snow clung to the leaves, pulling down trees and branches that might otherwise have withstood the snow had the trees been winter bare. 

At least 100 vehicles were reported stranded on highways in northeastern New Mexico, where a blizzard warning was in effect until 5 p.m. Friday.  

The snowstorm followed what had been up to now an unusually warm autumn in Colorado, which means that, like in New Mexico, some of the leaves are still on the trees. Especially in urban and suburban areas of Denver and other areas outside the mountains.

That contributed to a bunch of power outages that are now being repaired. Electricity appeared to be almost completely restored in Colorado  and in New Mexico as of Sunday morning.  

The storm has departed Colorado. The forecast for cities like Denver and Colorado is for sunshine the entire week with highs in the 50s to near 60, so the snow should melt pretty fast. 

As a parting shot, the storm's cold front eventually grabbed some moisture from dying former Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. That ended up dumping torrential rains and creating lots of flash flooding in Louisiana this weekend. 

The storm system that caused the Colorado snow and contributed to the Louisiana flood is the same one that is coming through the Northeast with some needed rain on Monday. 

However, the storm is now much, much weaker than it was and still getting weaker. So the Northeast won't get all that much rain out of this system.

Roswell, New Mexico Latest Victim Of Epic Flooding

 The latest victim of an extreme rain storm and flood is Roswell, New Mexico.

Scary scenes in Roswell, New Mexico Sunday after extreme
flash floods overwhelmed the city. 

The intense downpours Saturday sent the Spring River channel blasting through downtown Roswell and other neighborhoods in town. At least two people have died.  

Video taken Sunday of the flood aftermath shows cars and trucks strewn like toys thrown around by a toddler having a temper tantrum.

 The force of the water pulled pavement from streets and knocked down sturdy metal fences and barriers. 

At least 300 people were rescued from the floodwaters and 38 of them were taken to hospitals. 

Roswell, population of about 48,000 is of course famous for an alleged UFO crash there in 1947. 

A storm dumped 5.78 inches of rain on Roswell Saturday, the most for any day on record there. The old record was 5.65 inches on November 1, 1901.  Up to nine inches of rain fell in some areas near the city. 

Most of that rain came in just six hours, and was almost half Roswell's normal annual rainfall. 

The flood came right after the end of a heat wave that broke all kinds of records for intensity, longevity and how late in the season it was.

That heat ended as an upper level storm system drew tropical air northward into the mountains and hills of the Southwest.  Large high pressure in the southeastern United States directed moisture toward New Mexico, where atmospheric moisture reached two to three times normal levels.

The most intense storms developed in eastern New Mexico, especially in and around Roswell. 

The Roswell flood is the latest in a long, frequent series of record floods this year in the United States and around the world. 

Though it sometimes is difficult to pin a particular weather event on climate change, what happened in Roswell is consistent with the global problem. 

A warmer atmosphere holds more water than a drier one, so under the right conditions, rainfall will be heavier than it would have been in a cooler world.

This is also the second time this year parts of New Mexico have endured an extreme flood.

Back in the spring, wildfires denuded the hills and mountains surrounding Ruidoso, New Mexico. Then in the late spring and summer, torrential storms hit those hills, sending destructive flash floods and debris flows into Ruidoso, causing extensive damage.  

Intense Connecticut Flood Captured In Store Surveillance Camera

An intense flash flood struck western Connecticut back on August 18.

Screen grab from security video showing a flash
flood destroying the interior of a 
Seymour, Connecticut shop in August.

Up to ten inches of rain fell in just a few hours that day, causing two deaths and extreme damage from intense flash flooding. 

That type of disaster was unfortunately all to common this past summer in the Northeast and southeastern Canada, as we in Vermont know all too well.

A video, which you will see below, is just one graphic example of how flash floods are so sudden and extremely dangerous.  No wonder they're so deadly. 

The video is clips of security footage taken inside The Yankee Quilter, a popular craft, quilt and sewing machine shop in Seymour, Connecticut. 

The footage shows water already in the store. But then the intense flood overwhelms the doors and walls of the store, sending a surge into the retail space, destroying everything in seconds. At one point, the surge of water into the store creates a debris-filled whirlpool on the sales floor. 

Luckily, nobody was in the shop at the time. If people were there, they could have easily been severely injured or killed. 

The destruction in Connecticut store was similar - and just as scary - as video of floodwater invading a Ludlow, Vermont restaurant during the extreme floods of July, 2023.

The two people who died in this Connecticut flood were two women caught when their cars were suddenly overwhelmed. 

Video: To see the CCTV footage of the flooding at The Yankee Quilter in Connecticut, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Intense Flash Flooding In Northeast, And Ontario, Some Vermont Flood Risk Today

Extreme flooding again, this time in Connecticut on
Sunday. Photo from WINY Radio via Facebook. 

 While we in Vermont were harassed by scattered, mostly light showers and overcast skies on Sunday, new outbreaks of intense flash flooding hit other areas not too far from the Green Mountain State. 

Parts of Connecticut were under a flash flood emergency when up to ten inches of rain deluged the southwest parts of the state in a matter of hours. That led to a disaster on par with what happened around St. Johnsbury and Lyndonville on July 30 when eight inches of rain fell in a few hours there. 

The flooding in western Connecticut Sunday was described as a one in a thousand year flood event, which means the chances of what happened yesterday in any given year is 0.1 percent. Of course, in the age of climate change, I think this percentage chance need to be altered.

Up to ten inches of rain fell in just a few hours. In some western Connecticut towns, up to six inches of rain fell in just three hours. 

Unfortunately, reports are two people were swept away in the Connecticut flooding but deaths had not been confirmed as of this morning.

As you'd expect damage is severe, with many roads washed out. Homes and businesses are trashed. The same story we've heard way too often this year.

Meanwhile, in Ontario, five inches of rain drenched Toronto Saturday, setting off new rounds of flooding in a summer that has already seen intense flooding in Ontario.  Once again, people had to be pulled from cars suddenly stranded in rapidly rising water. 

This will be Toronto's wettest summer on record, according to Environment Canada.   The wettest summer on record in Toronto was previously 15.6 inches of rain, but already this summer, they've had 18.73 inches and counting. 

Here we go again. Vermont under a slight
risk for flash flooding today. 

I'm struck by how frequently the floods have been in the Northeast and southeastern Canada this summer. Central and northern Vermont on July 11. Vermont's Northeast Kingdom on July 30.  Toronto, Canada on July 15 and August 17. Montreal on August 2. Now Connecticut.

MORE FLOODS?

Today brings one last day for awhile for some flood threats in New England, including here in Vermont. 

The cold front that promises to bring in that chilly air we've been advertising is set to come through today.  NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has upgraded us from a marginal to a slight risk of excessive rain and flash flooding across Vermont today.

That is level two out of four-point scale. 

These risks are always tricky to assess in advance.  Sometimes, the heavy rain moves right along and doesn't linger over one area, minimizing the flood threat. Other times, heavy downpours hit the same area over and over again, and you have a local flash flood.

Today is kind of a tossup, so we'll have to wait until this afternoon to see how everything behaves. 

We know the line of storms ahead of today's cold front will have some torrential downpours. It's just a question of whether they linger over a particular spot for a couple or few hours.  Especially if it lingers over the Green Mountains, that could cause trouble, as the rainwater would gush down the steep slopes and cause some flash flooding.  

If we get any flash flooding in Vermont today, it'll happen between 1 and 8 p.m., says the National Weather Service in South Burlington.  Any flash flooding would take the form of washed out culverts, gravel roads and ditches, flooding of the type of small streams that rise quickly in heavy rains, and street flooding in urban areas. 

I don't think flash flooding today will be super widespread. Most of us should only get 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain, which is manageable. But a few unlucky spots could get much more. 

The National Weather Service said this morning the ground is still so soggy that we can only handle 1.5 to 2 inches of rain in an hour before flash flooding would probably begin. Some towns that get hit by the heaviest downpours today could see that much rain in such a short time period. 

Seek higher ground very quickly if your area goes under flash flood warning.

We won't have to worry about flooding along main rivers like the Winooski, Lamoille, Missisquoi, Mad rivers and Otter Creek.  Those rivers will see sharp rises overnight, but won't go over their banks or cause anything scary or really damaging. 

I always hate to talk about flash flood risks because we Vermonters are so jumpy now when it comes to floods.  It's happened so much and so frequently, any forecast that mentions flooding probably triggers PTSD in more than a few people.

But, it will be over by this evening, so at least we don't have to sit and worry for very long.

COLD SNAP

As the chilly air pours in this evening, any Vermont flood risk will evaporate for the foreseeable future. The cold air in the atmosphere will probably trigger a fair number of rain showers Tuesday, Wednesday and possibly part of Thursday.  But all those showers will be light and pose absolutely no flood danger. 

After that, it should stay dry until at least next Sunday, or possibly even longer. 

 

No Place Is Safe, Apparently: Famed Dollywood Theme Park Flooded Out, But Like Dolly Parton, It Can't Be Defeated

People fleeing through floodwaters at 
Dollywood in Tennessee this past Sunday.
Photo via X by @ParkFanatic

Lord knows we in Vermont have had our big problems with flash flooding lately, but the weather gods, climate change or whatever is trying to take down everything with water. 

Case in point:  The famed Dollywood Theme Park in Pigeon Forge, Tennessee was swamped by a big flash flood July 28 that had hundreds of visitors fleeing muddy, quickly rising water. 

Slow moving, intense storms moved over Dollywood Sunday afternoon, dumping 4.5 inches of rain in just a few hours. Park officials, along with the Pigeon Forge police and fire departments, hastily ushered guests out of the park as water quickly rose.

They managed to get hundreds of people out of the park with only one minor injury, which is great considering how dangerous flash floods are. 

Video and photos on social media showed visitors struggling through water that was as much as waist deep.  Several cars in parking lots were ruined by the high, rushing water. Others walked through, and then drove through ankle deep water to escape. 

Several cars were destroyed when parking lots flooded. "Dollywood is supporting guests whose vehicles were affected by this weather event, and cleanup crews have been deployed," park officials stated in post on X, formerly Twitter.

Like Dolly Parton, the park's indomitable namesake, Dollywood rose from the mud and water quickly enough to reopen by noon the next day, less than 24 hours after the deluge.   

Debby Making Florida Landfall This Morning, East Coast Flood Nightmare This Week, Stormy Vermont With A Break

Satellite view of Hurricane Debby this morning just after
making landfall in northwest Florida. 

 Lots to talk about this morning with Hurricane Debby making landfall in Florida, a rough storm day in Vermont Sunday and very likely today as well, an eastern seaboard flood nightmare about to unfold, a break in the weather in Vermont followed by a possible new end of week threat.  

Phew! Like I said, busy. 

HURRICANE DEBBY

Debby was making landfall near Steinhatchie, Florida with a four to seven foot storm surge and sustained winds of 80 mph. So it's quite a blow.  Yes, it's a Category 1 hurricane, but they can still do a lot of damage along the coast. 

Especially since this is occurring just under a year after Category 3 Hurricane Idalia crashed ashore in the same region, maybe just 30 miles or so further up the coast. 

Details on damage so far are sketchy, as you'd imagine. The main trouble with Debby is going to be torrential rains and possibly historic flooding in parts of the Southeast. 

Debby is still expected to slow down to a crawl and linger in or near Georgia and South Carolina through much of this week. Its winds will quickly diminish once its inland today, but it will continue to dump tremendous downpours, as these things do. Debby might briefly head off the coast of Georgia into the Atlantic later this week, which would help sustain its strength. 

As much as six to 12 inches of rain could come down in northern Florida and southeastern Georgia within the next 24 hours. 

Continued torrents tomorrow could dump another half foot or more of rain in parts of Georgia and South Carolina. Parts of South Carolina can expect more than 20 inches of rain.

EAST COAST FLOODING

Areas of flooding, some possibly severe, are definitely possible in various areas of the Eastern Seaboard all week. Much of it depends on what Debby eventually does.  Since it will be meandering around, nobody is quite sure. 

For today, outside the Debby zone, pockets of flooding are possible in sections of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont (more on that below). 

On Tuesday, the best chances of flooding, again, outside the "Debby zone" would in southern New England and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, especially in New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. 

 Wednesday and Thursday,  the flooding will focus once again on the "Debby zone" in the Carolinas. By Friday, the forecast is less certain, but flooding is possible (but not definite!)  anywhere in a zone from South Carolina to central New England. 

ROUGH VERMONT SUNDAY

In the humid air on Sunday afternoon and evening, storms left their mark on a few sections of Vermont, as if we didn't have enough damage. 

A thunderstorm looming over Colchester, Vermont 
Sunday, cut the sky in half, blue on the left, dark and
menacing on the right. The storm knocked some
trees down in South Hero, but weakened as
it moved further east into Colchester and Burlington.

It looks like Rutland and surrounding towns, and unfortunately hard hit St. Johnsbury were the main targets. 

Two rounds of severe storms swept Rutland County. Power was out through much of Rutland City, part of a  series of storm-related power failures to cut electricity to as many as 6,000 Vermont homes and businesses last night. 

Serious tree damage was reported in Rutland, Center Rutland, Castleton, Pittsford and Benson. Flooding  inundated some streets in Rutland, including at the busy intersection of Routes 4 and 7. 

Up in the Northeast Kingdom, renewed flash flooding wrecked some of the repairs to roads that were destroyed in last week's calamitous floods. Several roads in East Burke were washed out again, and new flood damage reports came out of St. Johnsbury. 

ROUGH VERMONT MONDAY

It seemed pretty clear and calm - and even a bit cooler than it's been in Vermont this morning. The calm weather is about to change once again. 

The cold front that will sweep the humid air once and for all means business. It's providing a risk of (ugh!!) new local flash floods across northern and central Vermont today. And severe storms across central and southern Vermont. 

Near the Canadian border,  it won't be sunny long enough this morning to destabilize the air much. Showers were already gathering in New York, and will increase by this afternoon as the cold front settles in.  So severe thunderstorms north of Route 2 seem pretty unlikely today. 

The rain could come down hard enough, even up by the Canadian border to set off some local flash floods. Again, not sure where, you can never tell in advance, but beware. 

There's a flash flood risk from Route 2 and points south as well, and that will be mixed with a second day of locally damaging thunderstorms. There could be a couple rounds of severe storms, too, much like what Rutland had to deal with Sunday. 

Everything will be hit and miss. Most of us will not get enough rain to trigger flash floods. It'll be hit and miss. So will the storms. Most places won't have storm damage, but a few will really get nailed by microbursts and strong winds. 

Just stay weather aware and heed any weather warnings you get today. 

VERMONT OUTLOOK

Yes, we will be cool and (mostly) dry Tuesday through Thursday. We'll enjoy the much cooler temperatures and much, much lower humidity. 

As for that risk from Debby's remnants at the end of the week or weekend, we just don't know whether or how it will affect Vermont. Some computer models bring torrential rain to at least parts of Vermont, other models are in the "meh" category. 

We'll just have to wait for updated forecasts on that.