Frigid April Vermont Morning Came As Predicted; Mostly Dry, Cool-ish Weather Is Up Next

A daffodil tries to recover in the morning sun today after
early morning lows here in St. Albans reached 24 degrees. 

 The worst of our April cold wave will be ending this morning as sunshine boosts temperatures out of the midwinter doldrums. It won't exactly get warm again right away, but at least it will be reasonable.  

After all, Monday was anything but toasty.  The remaining patches of snow in my yard didn't entirely disappear until mid-afternoon. 

Early in the day, Burlington picked up another 0.6 inches of snow.  The average date for the last trace of snow for the season in Burlington is April 15. 

But it could we worse. It could always be worse. Burlington has had as much as three inches of snow on May 9, in 1966 and a trace on May 31, 1945

The National Weather Service had another interesting statistic out of this sudden, brief return to cold. Burlington's records go into the 1880s. There have only been 17 occasions in which a particular day had both temperatures in the 60s and measurable snow.  Two of those days happened in the past couple of months.

On Sunday it was 61 degrees just after midnight early in the morning. By mid-afternoon, 0.2 inches of snow had fallen. A similar situation happened back on March 17.  We started the day before dawn at 65 degrees, but 0.2 inches of snow fell

The most extreme example of warmth on a "snowy" day was on February 25, 2017. A little before 3 p.m. that day, it reached 72 degrees, shattering the record for the warmest February day on record. A cold front arrived later that afternoon, and before midnight, 0.2 inches of snow fell. 

Just one more example of how weather changes quickly here in Vermont

THIS MORNING'S LOWS

Many of us will be picking through the wreckage of our early season gardens. But depending on the plant, we might not know for days what was damaged and what was not. In the case of  plants that are just budding, like lilacs, we might not know for a few weeks if the blooms are OK.

The most intense cold early this morning was brief, so I think there's a good chance that many blooming daffodils and other early flowers survived. I imagine many if not most of the lilac buds did, too. Time will tell. 

Generally the threshold for the start of damage to tough early season blooms is about 25 degrees. Burlington had a low temperature of 25 degrees this morning.

Here in St. Albans, it was 24 degrees just after dawn. Montpelier got to 18 degrees, breaking the record low for the date by one degree.   Lyndonville got down to 18 degrees. Morrisville was 19 degrees. Newport and Bennington was 20 degrees.   The majority of weather stations in Vermont were in the low 20s as of 6 a.m. 

Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York got to at least 12 above.

At least this now-ending chill will be the coldest weather we'll see until October or November 

FORECAST

The next several days will be a little cool and almost entirely dry. Today will only make it into the upper 40s for the most part which is still pretty chilly for late April

A very weak disturbance tonight might produce some sprinkles. And maybe some snowflakes in the higher elevations. We just can't let go of winter, can we?

After that, the weather becomes rather boring for us.  Boring is a good thing. That means no tornadoes, no snowstorms, no extreme killing freezes. At least here in Vermont. I can't say the same for other parts of the state.

We will see almost no precipitation for the next week or so.  A block up weather pattern means storms trying to come at us from the west will either fall apart or get pushed well south of us. It still looks like the next chance of rain won't come along until April 29 or so. Even then, early indications are that April 29 rain won't exactly be impressive. 

The rest of this week will be on the cool side. High temperatures this time of year should be in the mid 50s cooler locations and close to 60 elsewhere.  Wednesday through Friday, highs will be in the upper 40s in the chilliest areas of the north to low to mid 50 for most of us. So, not that bad.

It looks like temperatures will warm ever so slightly to near normal levels this weekend. At least for a couple days. The overall weather pattern heading into early May is for slightly cooler than average weather. But this time of year, "slightly cool" is still spring weather.  The season will advance, and we'll forget about our little struggle with this morning's wintry chill. 

The Most Iconic Photos Of U.S. Tornadoes And The Stories Behind The Images

This photo is regarded as the first photo
taken of a tornado. It was in April, 1884 in
Garnett, Kansas. Photo by A.A Adams

Tornado season is ramping up. Every year, we get dramatic photos and videos of the tornadoes that show their power, their terror, sometimes their horrible beauty. You just hope nobody got hurricanes in all the chaos. 

Over the years, some tornadoes create iconic images that last forever and are referenced by experts, whether geeks and others as incredibles bits of history. 

Here are some of the most iconic images of tornadoes over the years. 

FIRST PHOTOGRAPH

There are many candidates vying for the first photograph of a tornado ever taken.  Almost all of those candidates have been proven to be fakes, or so altered that they really don't depict what was going on.

But one widely recognized photo is considered the first one. It shows a long, skinny funnel extending out at an angle from a dark cloud. It looks like a tornado that's "roping out." That means the tornado is beginning to dissipate. It stretches out and gets narrow until it falls apart. 

Unlike other supposed first tornado photos, this one taken by a fruit farmer named. A.A Adams makes sense. The clouds look like they would in a "normal" tornado, not some idealized version of one. The tornado hit Garnett, Kansas on April 26, 1884. It damaged some homes and barns and supposedly carried a man and his wagon through the air, injuring him. 

This doesn't mean the danger is over. Supercell thunderstorms sometimes cycle tornadoes. One dies, and later on, a new one will develop.

I don't know if that's the case with this one. 

Worcester, Massachusetts, June 9, 1953:

The Worcester County, Massachusetts
tornado on June 9, 1953

The statistics on this tornado are incredible: 94 people were killed, 1,288 were inured. At least 4,000 buildings were damaged or destroyed. The tornado was up to a mile wide and plowed through 45 miles of central Massachusetts. Debris from the tornado was thrown as far away as Cape Cod. It was easily the worst tornado in New England history. 

This was a Midwest style, highly destructive wedge tornado. It looked very much like the famous 2013 EF-5 in the Oklahoma City area, and not something that could ever happen in New England. But it did. 

The photo is striking because you see that classic Plains wedge shaped twister with an equally classic looking large New England farmhouse in the foreground. The dichotomy between the tornado and the house its incredibly striking

The photo, taken by Henry LaPrade, also shows the classic wall cloud/mesoscale supporting the tornado from above.  

As bad as Worcester tornado was, it was even the whole story.  The day before Worcester was hit, he  same storm system created an F5 tornado that devastated the northern part of Flint, Michigan and the suburb of Beecher, killing 116 people and injuring 844. A photograph of the Flint tornado is eerily similar to the Worcester tornado pictured here. 

1953 was a horrible tornado year. Earlier that spring, on May 11, another powerful tornado swept through Waco, Texas, killing 114 people

Goshen, Indiana, April 11, 1965

The double tornado image taken during the Palm Sunday
Tornado outbreak in 1965. This was in Goshen
Indiana. Photo by Paul Huffman. 

This one is from the Palm Sunday tornado outbreak on April 11, 1965. This double tornado was photographed by Paul Huffman in Goshen, Indiana. 

Huffman worked at the Elkhart Indiana Truth, the local paper. That day, he was driving down Route 33 with his wife when the saw a towering black cloud. At first they thought it was a fire.

They then realized it was a tornado. Huffman never left the house without his camera, so he pulled it out, went outside the car and starting taking pictures. Huffman kept himself steady in the intenser winds by swinging his leg around his car's bumper.

Hid photo, including the famous double tornado image  and others he took that day, are at this link. 

Judging from his other photos, I'm not 100 percent convinced he photographed two tornadoes. Intense tornadoes often have multiple vortices within them. Essentially tornadoes within tornadoes. It looks like the photo captured two intense vortices within the parent tornado. 

Huffman, however, the storm contained two distinct funnels as it went through, so I can't be sure what happened. 

This tornado moved on to blast through a mobile home park. Later that day, a second intense tornado would go through the same mobile home park.  Thirty-three people died in that mobile home park. Huffman also took heartrending photos of rescuers trying to help the injured in the immediate aftermath of the tornado, 

It was part of the large Palm Sunday tornado outbreak of 1965, one of the worst in modern history. Around 50 tornadoes killed 271 people and injured more than 3,500.  Indiana was hardest hit, and the tornado outbreak is still the worst in Indiana history. 

Topeka, Kansas, June 8, 1966

One of Perry Riddle's photos showing people fleeing
a Topeka, Kansas F5 tornado in 1966.

Up until this time, this was the most expensive tornado on record for the U.S. The F5 twister  cut though the heart of Topeka, damaging much of downtown, including the dome of the State House. More than 800 homes were destroyed and 3,000 damaged. 

The tornado caused more than $200 million in damages, in 1966 dollars. That would be more than $2 billion in 2026 dollars. 

Seventeen people lost their lives in the process. The photo to me is iconic a it shows what appears to be a Midwestern family scrambling for shelter, with the large, black tornado looming behind them. The shadows cast by the clouds and the tornado almost turn the family into silhouettes, making the image all the more foreboding. 

The photo was taken by Perry Riddle as people ran for cover into the Countryside United Methodist Church at 3221 SW Burlingame Road. I was unable to determine whether the tornado hit the church, but the lean of the tornado funnel suggests that it missed that location. 

Riddle took numerous photos of the tornado from that church parking lot, and they are amazingly high quality, especially for 1966.  You can see the other photos in the second half of a YouTube video at this link. 

Xenia, Ohio, April 3, 1974.

Terrifying image of an F5 tornado tearing through
Xenia, Ohio in April, 1974. Image the hour inside
that black maelstrom

The massive tornado here was part of the Super Outbreak of 1974, which was the worst swarm of tornadoes in American history until the next Super Outbreak in April, 2011. 

The outbreak produced 148 tornadoes in the 13 states and Ontario, Canada.  Thirty of them were F4s or F5s, the strongest type. The outbreak caused 335 direct fatalities and injured 6,000 people.

Probably the worst tornado in the outbreak struck Xenia, a city of about 25,000 people in southwest Ohio.  This one reminds me of the Joplin, Missouri tornadoes years later, as both cut through the heart of a small city. In both cases the tornadoes reached maximum strength while cutting through the middle of the communities.  

The photo was taken by Fred Stewart, the public information director at Greene Memorial Hospital. He was also a photography buff. He took the photo through a window on the second floor stairwell at the hospital. The window looked out over the Pinecrest Gardens neighborhood of Xenia

The following information comes from the April 6 1974 edition of the Xenia Daily Gazette. 

"'It looked like it was going to come straight to the hospital,' he said. 'But then it veered off and hit Pinecrest Gardens. The air was filled with debris. I shot four frames before I headed back to the basement.'

 The photo is terrifying as you know just beyond the parking lot, in that black maw of a terrifying tornado, death and ruin is raining down on that neighborhood. 

Makes me sad every time I see the photo. 

 Fridley,  Minnesota, July 18, 1986

Screen shot of a Minnesota tornado filmed from a
traffic helicopter in 1986.

This wasn't exactly the most notable or extreme tornado. But it was the start of a media trend in which video cameras were becoming much more portable, easier to use, and allowed for more daring storm chasing. 

That day, a traffic helicopter with KARE in Minneapolis was able to follow a tornado in Brooklyn Park and Fridley, about 15 miles north of Minneapolis. It is the first known, widely distributed video of a tornado taken from the air. 

The footage was dramatic, with the tornado yanking trees out of the woods and flinging them far outside the twister. It's still one of the more dramatic tornado videos out there. Which is saying something considering we're now in the age of drones and remote videos that can really uncover some amazing tornado image. 

This particular tornado was rated an F2, and damaged a few dozen buildings. 

Andover, Kansas, April 26, 1991

Image is a little fuzzy because it's a screen grab from a 
video, but Duke Evans' video of an EF-5 tornado
in Andover, Kansas was considered the best video
up until its time of a powerful tornado.
The twister passed just behind that row of houses.
The occupants had to be terrified.

Affordable camcorders had become popular in by around 1990, allowing far more people to easily film and share footage of events. That included tornadoes  near tornadoes. 

On April 26, 1991, a tornado outbreak in the central United States produced at least 55 tornadoes, resulting in 21 deaths. The most powerful and destructive of the tornadoes was an F-5, the strongest kind, in Andover, Kansas. 

Duke Evans took out his camcorder and filmed more the six minutes of the Andover tornado's rampage. At the tine it was considered the highest quality tornado footage ever produced. I imagine the film was studies by many tornado experts and in meteorology classrooms everywhere. 

The most terrifying part of the video is when it goes just behind a row of houses. If anyone was in those houses huddling in a closet or basement, the screaming roar of the tornado must have shaken them to their bones. 

Since then, now that we're in the age of everyone having a camera phone, it seems almost every tornado is well documented. But Evans' was the first in a cottage industry: America's Most Terrifying Tornado. 

We'll revisit Andover and another tornado later in this post. 

Jarrell, Texas, May 21, 1997

The Jarrell, Texas tornado as it was developing.
Multiple vortices - mini tornadoes within the main
tornado are visible, giving a dead man walking
looks to the storm, The tornado became extremely
powerful and essentially stalled over a subdivision
killing 17 people 

This was a tragic, weird and largely unexpected F5 tornado that hit the community of Jarrell, Texas. Although some severe thunderstorms were forecast that day, nobody expected a powerhouse twister like this one in the community about 40 miles north of Austin. 

The photo of the tornado is called "Dead Man Walking" and you can see why. The photo was taken while the tornado was rapidly powering up to it F5 status. 

As I mentioned above in the Palm Sunday, 1965 piece, powerful tornadoes often have multiple vortices. Essentially tornadoes spinning within the parent tornado. 

The photo was taken by Scott Beckwith as he stood outside the building housing his employer, Jarrell Farm Supply. 

He caught the beginning stages of the tornado, when it began as a narrow, almost harmless looking rope, to the Dead Man Walking photo that because famous. 

Knowing what happened after the photo was taken, the tornado with its vortices inside it really looks  a sort of grim reaper heading toward a neighborhood to take a lot of lives.

Which is precisely what this tornado did.  It headed slowly southwestward, the opposite direction of most tornadoes. 

A typical tornado's forward speed is about 20 mph and can be 50 mph or more in some instances. The powerful F5 tornado then did the worst thing possible. It essentially stalled over the Double Creek Estates Subdivision. It sat there crawling forward ever so slowly through  the subdivision, with its 260 mph winds, for three minutes. 

The people in the subdivision's houses never stood a chance. 

The winds were so strong, and lasted so long, that every piece of several homes was swept completely away from foundations and ground to small pieces. Some construction material was pulverized down to dust. Asphalt was lifted off the street and blown away. Cars blew half a mile or more away from where they had been parked. 

The destruction was arguably the most extreme of any tornado seen in the United States. 

Tuscaloosa, Alabama, April 27, 2011

The Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado of April 27, 2011 seemed
to have tentacles coming out of it 

While many years since 1974 had more than the usual number of tornadoes, it seemed the days when tornadoes killed several hundred people in a single year seemed in the past. Then came 2011.  That year, 553 people died in U.S. tornadoes. Only the year 1925 had more tornado deaths.  

Many of these deaths occurred in what I'd call the Super Duper Tornado outbreak of April 25-28. 2011. This one far outdid the famous 1974 Super Outbreak with tragic results. 

According to the Weather Channel:

"An incredible 349 tornadoes were spawned in just 72 hours April 25-28, according to NOAA. While the Deep South - Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee - bore the brunt o fit, tornadoes tore through parts of 21 states from Texas to central New York. 

According to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, 929 tornado warnings were issued by 44 different National Weather Service offices from April 25-29."

Also, 199 tornadoes occurred on just one day - April 27. The normal amount of tornadoes in the U.S. during the entire month of April is 194. 

The Tuscaloosa, Alabama tornado during this outbreak really stands out. It wasn't the strongest of the outbreak as there were four EF-5 tornadoes and the Tuscaloosa storm was "only" an EF-4 with top winds of ???

This tornado claimed 65 lives along an 80-mile path from Greene County, Alabama, through Tuscaloosa  and into the northern suburbs of Birmingham, the Weather Channel notes. Despite the very high death toll, the fact that this powerful tornado rolled through such high populated areas speaks well to the warnings from the National Weather Service and local television stations.

A fascinating aspect of the visuals on this tornado were the horizontal vortices wrapping around the tornado. You see that sometimes in the most ferocious tornadoes. It always makes me think these tornado are sentient monsters with tentacles trying to pick people off the streets. 

Joplin, Missouri, May 22, 2011

The view out a van window as their occupants were trying
desperately to flee the EF-5 Joplin, Missouri tornado in
2011. If you click on the photo to make it bigger and
if you look closely, you can see the tornado looming
just a very short distance away 

The horrible tornado season of 2011 wasn't done after the Super Duper Outbreak. On May 22, 2011, an EF-5 tornado slammed through Joplin, Missouri, a city of about 50,000 in southwest Missouri. 

The tornado killed 161 people, making if the deadliest tornado since 1953 and the nations seventh deadliest on record. 

The tornado also showed what a monster tornado can look like, and how it can give people who are used to big storms a false sense of security. 

The tornado was wrapped in rain, and just looked like a big ugly black cloud approaching. It seemed to be a nasty storm looming, for sure, but not the cataclysm it turned out to be.

There's a haunting must-see YouTube video taken from inside a van with several knowledgeable storm chasers inside. They know that black mass looming behind the buildings they are passing is a highly dangerous tornado. The van load of storm chasers know they have to get out of the way very quickly or they will be hit and quite possibly killed by the twister.

Their escape is hindered by people keeping to routines as if death was not looming in that black cloud. 

The notes on the YouTube video say:

"It is interesting to note that many drivers on the road were completely oblivious to the sirens, and were driving and texting on their cellphones instead of observing the approaching tornado and trying to get out of its path. Most of us felt sick afterwards, but it actually sank in a few hours/days later as we really had no idea what was actually happening in Joplin."

Part of the reason the video is so haunting is because many of the buildings that the van drove past were reduced to ruins moments later. Subsequent videos of the aftermath proved that.  

 The people in the van are increasingly panicked as the tornado closes in,  but they manage to get onto Interstate 44 and speed away from the twister in the nick of time. 

That photo of the black mawing mass looming over Joplin still gives me chills.  

Andover, Kansas, April 29, 2022

An incredible still from a wild video taken via drone
and produced by famed storm chaser Reed Timmer

Just three days after the 31st anniversary of the immense tornado of 1991, Andover, Kansas was struck again. And like the earlier tornado, new technology offered a stunning fresh look at the power of a twister. 

This one was an EF-3 when destroyed several homes and damaged other buildings. The tornado was on he ground for 21 minutes and tracked 12.8 miles. 

But the dry stats on this tornado don't give nearly the amazing vision of what tornadoes can do. Prominent tornado chaser Reed Timmer incredibly captured the tornado ripping up houses from a drone he launched nearby. 

The resulting video from Timmer is absolutely jaw dropping. The best footage is at the beginning as the well-lit tornado pulls roofs from a series of houses in the neighborhood. At one moment, the roofs of three adjacent houses lift off simultaneously. A white snow of insulation fills the air, as does a maelstrom of boards, roofing material and other debris. 

Just incredible what a tornado can do, especially when viewed from the air 

 Crystal Lake/Gary, South Dakota, June 28, 2025

The "Dancing Tornado" in Gary, South Dakota last year

This one is called the dancing tornadoes. Tornadoes come in all kinds of shapes and sizes: Funnels, wedges, stovepipes, ropes, drill bits, you get the picture. Individual tornadoes also change their shapes during their lifetime.  

This one in South Dakota last year was a real shapeshifter.  It starts out with a classic stovepipe shape. Then in quickly turned into a rope, which is usually a sign a tornado is about to dissipate. 

But this time, the rope thicken again. And for the lack of a better description, the ropey tornado danced. Sort of wiggled as it moved across the countryside.

Click this link to view the dancing tornado.

As cool and interesting as this tornado was, it wasn't all fun and games. It was an EF-3 twister, with wind speeds of 155 to 165 mph. It traveled nearly ten miles, damage several properties. A farm house, garage, two machine sheds, a barn and grain bins were completely destroyed. A half ton pickup truck was hurled 300 yards.

South Dakota gets plenty of tornadoes but not many are as strong as the "dancing tornado." Statistics show South Dakota had 1,931 twisters between 1950 and 2024 but only 75 of those were EF-3 or greater. 

We're not getting into the heart of tornado season. There's already been plenty of horrifying and wild photos and videos of tornadoes and their aftermaths this year. And unfortunately for the victims of these storms, there's more tornado pictures coming over the next several weeks 

 

Vermont Monday Morning; Winter In April Continues

A burst of snow shortly after 7 a.m. this morning in
the Burlington area. This is a Vermont Transportation
Agency camera on Williston Road. Note the snow
sticking to the pavement on the bridge but
not on solid ground. I'm sure frozen bridges
surprised many motorists this morning. 

I awoke to another fresh dusting of snow in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday after it snowed most of the day Sunday. There was a dark overcast and it was still snowing a little.  

The National Weather Service issued a special weather statement for early this morning, warning of subfreezing temperatures and snow showers creating slick spots on the roads. A traffic camera shortly after 7 a.m. showed a moderate snow shower in Burlington with ice and snow sticking to the pavement of a bridge on Williston Road.

This morning looks and feels like the typical start of the day in late November, as we gird for a long winter. We obviously don't have a long winter coming, thank gawd, but unfortunately, winter weather is going to seriously subvert spring over the next 24 hours. 

After a cold day today, it'll be frigid tonight, as we've been forecasting for day.s 

It's not just us. Freeze warnings extend from Iowa through the southern Great Lakes and in pretty much all the Mid-Atlantic states. There's going to be a lot of garden damage with this cold wave.

Despite the expected deep chill tonight, there are no freeze warnings in Vermont. The growing season hasn't technically started yet, so the National Weather Service does not do such warnings this time of year. 

Let's get into the details 

TODAY

The snow showers should move out later this morning and some sun should break out, especially in the broader valleys. But frigid air is rocketing in to counteract the  strong April sun, it's going to be a typical mid-March day. That means highs generally in the upper 30s. A little warmer than that in southern valleys. A  little colder than that in northern higher elevations. 

Some places in the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks won't even get above freezing today. Pretty impressive for the third week in April. Impressive, but not in a good way. The ever-present gusty northwest winds will add to the chill 

Today's March wind and chilly temperatures set the stage for winter like morning lows tomorrow morning. 

TONIGHT

It still looks like skies will clear and winds will go nearly calm. Those are perfect conditions for super cold morning lows. 

As we've been harping on, garden plants and such have sprouted prematurely due to the recent warm weather, so that's why we're in trouble with the potential for frozen, ruined early season flowers and buds by morning.

There's the slightest bit of encouraging news. Maybe. Some  but not all of the  forecasts I saw this morning are a couple degrees warmer than yesterday's forecast. Those predicted lows are still well within the damage zone for garden plants. But every degree warmer than forecast lessens the damage. 

Also, a minority of forecasts indicate a few clouds might intrude overnight. We want to hope the minority wins, as clouds would help keep temperatures up. 

The current National Weather Service forecast has a low tonight in Burlington at 25 degrees, Rutland at 24, Brattleboro near 23, Montpelier at 21 and St. Johnshury at 19 degrees.

The plant damage will be worse in southern Vermont because they had much warmer weather for a longer period of time last week than in northern parts of the state. So things are really far along down there, and primed to get nipped by the freeze.

The traditional cold hollows are looking ridiculous tonight. Some towns in the Northeast Kingdom could end up in the low teens. Saranac Lake, New York is expected a Tuesday morning low of 11 degrees. 

I guess I'm focusing too much on tonight's cold weather on this because I'm an avid gardener. To most of the Vermont world, this cold spell will be forgotten very soon. Especially since the weather will turn to something very close to normal by the middle and end of the week

REST OF THE WEEK

And after the volatile weather of the past several days, the weather starting tomorrow will be well, boring. Which will honestly be a nice change of pace. . 

Tuesday will still be rather cold for this time of year, with highs in the 40s. They should be in the 50s to around 60 

The weather pattern setting up includes a stalled upper level low in the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure near Hudson Bay.  This is normally a recipe for much colder, unsettled, almost wintry conditions for this time of year. 

But the Canadian storm and the cold high pressure in Canada will be so far away from us that temperatures will be near or just a couple degrees cooler than average for late April.  The weather set up will mean storms coming from the west will get broken apart before they get here or get shunted to our south. 

That means if we get any rainfall over the next week it will be quite light, but timing out those light showers at this point is hard to do. 

Long range forecasts are notoriously dicey .But for now, the next chance of substantial rain doesn't come along until around April 29. And yes, if that April 29 storm materializes, it will be rain, not snow.

Quiet weather is expected for the end of the work week
along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures and periods of
cloud cover as a closed upper level low gyres over the Canadian
Maritimes. As an upper level ridge over the Great Lakes breaks down
and the maritime low shifts east, chances for precipitation increase
heading into next weekend, but with low predictability given the
evolving pattern and model spread. Highs for the end of the week
will be in the 50s, reaching into the 60s on the weekend, with lows
30s rising into the 40s.

Winter In April Vermont Sunday Evening Update: Snow Mostly Done, But The Cold Will Intensify

A patch of miniature daffodils endures Sunday's snow
in St. Albans, Vermont. Unfortunately, intense cold
tomorrow night will probably kill them off 

 It was a wintry day here in Vermont as we start the third week of April. It snowed much of the day across most of the state. 

The snow came during the middle of the day after a warm spell. The ground was warm and some sunlight was trying to get through the clouds. 

Those two factors prevented a lot of accumulation. Had this been a month or two ago, we would have had several inches of snow in the valleys .

The fact that snow accumulated at all testifies to the intensity of it for awhile today. 

In the valleys, the roads stayed mostly wet, maybe with a few slush patches during heavier bursts of snow. Higher elevation roads got slick and slushy, which is incredibly uncharacteristic for an April afternoon 

Route 15 near Rowell Road in Walden had to be closed due to slide-offs. Interstate 91 in Sheffield Heights in the Northeast Kingdom also had some crashes. 

The cold, elevated surface of my truck accumulated 1.6 inches here in St. Albans. Of course, there was less snow on the ground, but it did accumulate on grassy surfaces and trees. Burlington reported just 0.2 inches of snow. .

The snow pretty much ended here shortly around 3 p.m.m but as of 5 p.m. there is surprisingly sone snow still in the ground. It's not melting all that fast. 

The last and of heavier snow was in central Vermont late this afternoon and heading east. 

A few breaks in the clouds were appearing over western Vermont, so that might melt the rest of rte snow before sunset.  New snow showers have developed in New York, so we'll probably see some of that in Vermont this evening. Some of the snow showers could be very briefly heavy early this evening, but they won't lead to any new accumulation. 

TONIGHT, TOMORROW, TOMORROW NIGHT

A reinforcing cold front late tonight and early tomorrow morning could reinvigorate the snow showers briefly, but again they won't amount to much. 

But early morning commuters will start the day amid subfreezing temperatures. Left over water might freeze, and any snow showers might briefly stick to the pavement better than it did today.  Monday continues to continue blustery and cold. 

Unfortunately, we've gotten no good news for Monday night cold temperatures in the afternoon forecast updates  The forecast lows for Tuesday morning still look to be in the 15 to 25 degree range. Lots or spring garden freeze destruction looms.

I'll have more updates on this cold weather tomorrow morning, of course!  

Yes, It Will Snow In Vermont Later Today. How Much Is Still A Question

Yup! Another NWS snow prediction map. Valleys
should get very littl e snow this afternoon, but 
the mountains and Northeast Kingdom could get
a few inches of new snow.

UPDATE:  Rain was already starting to change to snow in St. Albans, Vernont as of 9:50 a.m. The earlier changeover might mean more snow than forecast. I'm not sure on that, stay tuned!!

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

If you got up early this Sunday morning, you enjoyed the last vestiges of the warm weather we just experienced. The high temperature today in Burlington looks like it was 61 degrees not long after midnight. 

It was still 57 degrees at 5 a.m. just before the cold front arrived. By 8 a.m. it was 48 degrees and rain was falling. 

Before we go on with the very bad weather news, let's reminisce briefly about Saturday. 

Southeast winds flowing down the slopes of the western Green Mountains often warm up a lot as they do so. Yesterday was no exception, allowing Burlington to get up to 76 degrees with the rest of the Champlain Valley experiencing similar temperatures. 

The rest of Vermont was in the 60s. The warmth and sunshine made for a gorgeous spring Saturday. 

Now for the depressing part. The snow, and the intense cold might do a number on some garden plants, depending exactly how cold it gets.  Here are the details

TODAY: 

The cold front is slowing down as it moves through Vermont and New Hampshire. That's allowing moisture to flow northward behind the front, ensuring a fair amount of precipitation all day. Notice I didn't just say rain.

Sure, a lot of this will be rain. But as temperatures fall into the 30s by afternoon, the rain will mix with and change to snow in many areas.   We're still struggling with how much snow we'll get.

Officially the National Weather Service forecast calls for a trace to an inch in most valleys, ranging up to four to seven inches on mountain summits. 

Most of us have removed our snow tires, so just a note that traveling could get tricky during the heaviest snow, especially in higher elevations. The ground is warm, so most of the snow will stick to grassy surfaces and  not roads. But the snow could be heavy enough in spots to make the roads slushy.

I'm also going to throw out a very slight chance of an unpleasant surprise. The kind of April surprise I'll describe has happened in the past, so it's possible.  Again, not likely, but it's a slight chance worst case scenario

The National Weather Service has a 10 percent chance that the snow could get really aggressive. Under this scenario, Burlington gets three inches of snow. St. Albans four inches, Montpelier 5 and Island Pond 9. 

The weather front now passing through is set up in a similar fashion to the big April snowstorms of 1983 and 2000. But there seems to be less cold air available than in those two occasions, which makes a big dump of snow today much less likely. 

Any snow might go back to a light rain for a time in the valleys as precipitation tapers off later today. 

TONIGHT

The only thing coming out of the sky tonight will be scattered light snow showers. The mountains could pick up another inch but everybody else will see no more than a dusting.  Especially for those of you with summer tires, some of the water out there on pavement could freeze, making for some icy patches. Yes, I know that's obnoxious for the third week in April.

Even worse, a reinforcing shot of cold air might rejuvenate the snow showers a bit toward morning.

MONDAY

Enjoy your spring blooms while you can. There's a good
chance that lows from 15-25 degrees Monday night
could destroy them. 

Monday will bring a throwback to mid-March. Stiff northwest winds will hold temperatures all day in the 30s to near 40. A few of the warmer valleys south could make it to the mid-40s.

Scattered  morning snow showers in northern and central valleys will tend to fade by midday but could continue in the afternoon across the Green Mountains. In other words, it will be a typical mid-March day. 

It'll be a good day to cut any flowers you have blooming and bring them inside to enjoy because.....

MONDAY NIGHT

Skies will clear and winds will go calm.  "High" temperatures are going to be so low on Monday it won't be much of a journey to get below freezing. And it will get far below freezing by dawn Tuesday. 

As of this morning, the National Weather Service is going for a low early Tuesday morning of 23 degrees in Burlington, 20 in Montpelier, 21 in Rutland and 17 in St. Johnsbury. Parts of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks of New York could each 14 or 15 degrees. 

These aren't quite record lows, but are quite frigid for the third week in April.

As I've mentioned before, climate change has created earlier springs. Also more volatile ones. So, spring trees, plants and flowers bloom prematurely, only to get zapped by a freeze. 

Decades ago, a freeze of this magnitude during the third week of April would have been no big deal because plants would not have progressed far enough along to be damaged.   It's not every year in the recent past we've had damaging late freezes, but it's been frequent. I'm thinking late April, 2021 and especially May, 2023 as examples. We're going to add April, 2026 to this list 

Early spring blooms are tough and there will be survivors this time. But we won't know for weeks whether lilacs and other plants that are still budding but not quite blooming received damage or not. I know that daffodil blooms get wrecked at temperatures under 25 degrees. And depending on how far along lilac buds are, they have a good chance of turning brown and ugly too.

So this whole thing is just a depressing mess. The only hope is if we unexpectedly get increasing clouds or wind Monday night to hold temperatures a little higher.

BEYOND THE COLD WAVE

As we likely survey the wreckage of our gardens later this week, the weather, almost cruelly, will turn very, very normal.  Tuesday will still be quite cool, but the rest of the week will be pretty average, with highs i the 50s to around 60 and lows in the 30s to around 40.  It looks like there will be very little rain during this period. And more importantly, no snow!

Last Warm Day In Vermont Today, A Little Snow And A Hard Freeze To Snap Us Back To Realit

First daffodils of the season in my St. Albans. Vermont
gardens. Will they survive the hard freeze expected
Monday night? Stay tuned!

The good news is a strong cold front that created a nasty tornado outbreak in the Midwest yesterday will not bring any severe weather to Vermont. We already had a tornado in Willliamstown, Vermont Thursday night, so that's enough.  

The bad news is the cold front will bring very cold air this time of year. So cold that it could well damage some or perhaps even many of the plants that have bloomed too early because of the recent warm weather. 

Vermont springs are never easy. 

Let's break it all down for you:

TODAY/TONIGHT

Early this morning, the sun was out, the birds were chirping away, the grass on the lawn is now green and there's buds on the trees. Ahh, spring!  The rest of the day will continue lovely. It will get increasingly breezy. Probably downright windy in the Champlain Valley by late afternoon.  

The winds will be from the southeast, off the Atlantic Ocean, so places east of the Green Mountains will be cooler.  In Brattleboro, where high temperatures have been in the mid 70s to low 80s most of the past week, will probably barely make it to 60 degrees this afternoon.  Meanwhile, the Champlain Valley should be close to 70.

You'll also notice clouds starting to increase west to east this afternoon. That's the first sign of the cold front that will spread rain across Vermont overnight. The rain will continue into Sunday with totals between a half inch and three quarters of an inch. 

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT

Oh, this is not going to be your day. You'll unfortunately need to huddle inside. Unless you love cold, wet, damp, bone-chilling weather.  The day will start off chilly and rainy and those temperatures should fall through the 40s.

In their forecast discussion this morning, meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington tell us the computer models are struggling a bit with how Sunday afternoon will play out. We pretty much know mountain summits will see rain change to snow, probably in the morning. 

The valleys have some questions about snow. Sigh, I know. We shouldn't be talking about valley snow still, hut here we are. Some of the computer models end most of the rain before the really cold air arrives, so the valleys wouldn't see any snow during the day under that scenario. Those are the models we're rooting for. 

Other models bring the cold air in sooner, and also slow down and strengthen the cold front. If that happens, we could get a period of snow. Which could be briefly heavy. Even in the Champlain  Valley. 

I'll have an update on this first thing tomorrow morning. 

Whatever happens, Sunday will not be a nice day to say the least. So much for spring. Overnight Sunday, temperatures should fall below freezing almost everywhere, with continued snow showers. There won't be much accumulation, but that's literally cold comfort for April.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT

Monday will bring us back to mid-March. It'll turn out partly sunny in many areas, which is nice, I suppose. But high temperatures will generally be in the 30s to around 40.  That's a good twenty degrees colder than normal for this time of year. Some southern Vermont valleys could make it into the mid-40s, but some high elevations in the north might not get above freezing all day. Yuck. 

Northwest breezes will make it feel colder. For the cherry on top, the Green Mountains might continue to have some light snow showers much of the day. 

Then the bottom drops out of the thermometers Monday night. It should clear up and winds will go light. 

Temperatures should end up in the low to mid 20s for most of us by early Tuesday morning. Colder spots should be in the upper teens. These won't be record lows, but this month's weather, and climate change in general, has screwed everything up. 

Plants are blooming earlier in the spring nowadays due to climate change. Southern Vermont has just gone through nearly a week of summer weather.  Not only has our springs turned warmer, they've gotten more extreme, consistent with climate change. That includes sharp, brief cold snaps that interrupt the warm weather. 

I don't know how much damage this weather will cause, but I think some places will miss out on some spring blooms. Plants and trees whose buds are still pretty tightly closed should be fine. Hardier early season blooms will probably do OK, too. I guess this weather will be an experiment on how much cold plants can take. 

BEYOND MONDAY

After the frigid start to Tuesday, the day will warm up, sort of, but still be much colder than average, with highs in the 40s. An early guess has the rest of the week will feature highs mostly in the low 50s, which is only slightly cooler than average. An improvement, I suppose. It also looks like we'll see very little if any rain next week. 

 

UPDATE: Confirmed:Tornado Last Night In Williamstown, Vermont, Top Wind 90 MPH

A maple sugaring shack collapsed in a confirmed EF-1
tornado that hit Williamstown, Vermont last night

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington confirmed late this afternoon that a tornado did indeed hit Williamstown, Vermont. 

It was a very brief one. It was 100 yards wide and only traveled just under a half mile (the path was officially 0.43 miles long. The tornado hit at 9:15 p.m. and was on the ground for less than three minutes.

The tornado was rated an EF-1 with winds up to 90 mph. Here's the National Weather Service narrative on this one: 

"Initial damage was observed as sheared tree tops about 100 yards west of damage observed on Chelsea Road, to an old sugarhouse and small building estimated as EF0-EF1. Damage continued east to a neighborhood on Lila's Way, where EF-1 damage to a hone was observed, along with damage to numerous trees, Damage then became scattered wind damage in the form of straight-line winds estimated at 60 to 70 mph. Golf ball size hail with siding and window damage observed along Baptist Street,"

An EF-0 tornado has winds of 65 to 85 mph. An EF-1 has winds of 86 to 110 mph 

I have not seen any reports of injuries which is great!

No tornado warnings were issued before the brief touchdown.  My guess is that since the twister was east of the Green Mountains, radar in the Burlington area was unable to pick up ground level rotation. Or the tornado was so brief it hit between radar scans.

The lack of a tornado warning does not appear to be related to Trump administration cut backs to the National Weather Service.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South had been tracking the tornado's parent thunderstorm all evening. Rotation was detected over the Adirondacks but it appears no tornado touched down there .

The thunderstorm weakened slightly in the Champlain Valley but re-intensified over and east of the Green Mountains. The NWS noticed how much the reinvigorated storm had intensified. At 9:27 p.m., they issued a severe thunderstorm warning

The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 9:27 p.m. for northeastern Orange county and south central Caledonia County. The warning told people in the area to expect 60 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball sized hail.

WPTZ reported that residents were understandably shocked by the storm.  Christian Pratt said he believes the roof of his home was damaged by wind and hail He said the large hail falling on the rood sounded like somebody took a ladder and dumped a load of rocks on the roof. The kitchen window on his house shattered

Vermont averages just one tornado per year. I believe this twister was the first one since July, 2023. This was Vermont's first April tornado on record. The rare occasions when we do see tornadoes usually come during the summer.

Vermont's first March tornado on record occurred just five years ago in Middlebury. 

  

Possible Tornado In Williamstown, Vermont Last Night

Screen grab from WPTZ shows a destroyed barn, and
a collapsed sugar shack (background left). The
National Weather Service is investigating whether
this was caused by a tornado or just strong winds

Personnel from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington are in Williamstown, Vermont, investigating a possible tornado. 

Video from WPTZ showed a destroyed barn on Chelsea Road in Williamstown was destroyed and a collapsed sugar shack collapsed.  Debris was visible tangled in damaged trees. 

 Judging from the video, damage was confined to a limited area. .Trees on the other side of a field behind the wrecked structures looked mostly fine. 

An apparent supercell thunderstorms crossed the Adirondacks early last evening, then moved west to east across central Vermont.  There were reports of hail up to size of golf balls and wind damage in Barre and Orange, which are near Williamstown.

I'll have full update on this once the National Weather Service finishes their survey and reports on their findings. That will come later today or tomorrow morning. 

Summer Air Surged North, Couple Big Vermont Storms, Today, Calmer, Mild, But Nasty Cold Snap Coming

I'm so close to seeing daffodils in my yard after  
yesterday's warm, humid weather and rain. But a looming
hard freeze could damage plants on Monday 

 Our stalled weather front surprised us a bit yesterday when it surged north all the way to the Canadian order.  It was supposed to stay chilly and clammy north. But we got a reprieve. 

I knew it was happening by late morning here in St. Albans when I went outside and noticed it was strangely humid for this time of year. 

The warmth spread all the way across northern Vermont to the Canadian border. Newport and Highgate both reached 71 degrees.

 It was 77 degrees in Burlington, the warmest day so far this year. Rutland reached 80 and Bennington got up to 83 degrees. Not record highs, but impressively warm for this time of year. 

Even more impressive for mid-April was the humidity. The dew point - a good measure of how humid it feels out there - got up to around 60 degrees. That would be considered seasonably humid in July, but it's pretty incredible for April. 

That ensure many of us would see thunderstorms, and sure enough lightning was also detected up to and a bit beyond the Canadian border.  We thought any strong storms would stay in far southern Vermont. But with the front moving further north, the worst of the storms hit central parts of the state

One apparent mini-supercell did cross central Vermont.  It appeared to have some rotation over the Adirondacks, but not nearly enough to produce a tornado. The storm weakened a little as it entered Vermont a little north of Middlebury. 

But it strengthen again in eastern Vermont. Tree damage was reported in Barre and Orange Hail the size of quarters was reported in East Orange.

The storms also produced torrential rain. A little over two inches of rain fell in South Lincoln. 1.83 inches fell in Warren. Jerusalem a hamlet south of Huntington had 1.78 inches.  There might have been a bit of local flash flooding out of those rains, but I haven't seen any such reports. I noticed there was a sharp rise on the Mad River in Moretown last night, but it stopped a little short of flood stage. 

SETTLING DOWN, BUT THEN.......

Our stalled front that's been pestering all week and creating weird temperature variations is finally on its way out. Skies should slowly clear today, revealing a mild afternoon.  And the range in temperatures across Vermont won't be weird, either. Highs will range fro 60 degrees near the Canadian order to near 70 on southern valley floors. 

Tomorrow should be nice, too. Sunshine might tend to fade behind some clouds in the afternoon, especially west. This time, southeastern Vermont might be a touch cooler than the rest of the state for change. 

Winds will come from the southeast, not southwest like they did in southern Vermont for the past few days. Southeast winds come from the cool Atlantic Ocean. So places like Brattleboro might barely make it to 60 degrees while the Champlain Valley flirts with 70

UGH! WINTER COMES BACK

The cold front coming in Saturday night and Sunday really mean business. And not the kind of business we like in the spring. Rain will cone in Saturday night as temperatures start to fall late.

Rain should continue most of Sunday as temperatures fall through the 40s. Rainfall will probably amount to a half inch to three quarters of an inch, give or take.  Then, some of the now light rain showers should change to snow showers Sunday night. Many of us could get a dusting of snow. 

So much for spring. 

It stays bad Monday. We'll start the day at or below freezing, then only get up into the 30s to low 40s during the day. Some places might have record low high temperatures on Monday. The lowest high temperatures on record for that date are in the mid-30s. I think chillier towns like Montpelier or St. Johnsbury could tie or break those records.

Then, it gets well down into the 20s Monday night and early Tuesday. Normally, such temperatures  in the third week in April are unpleasant but not really harmful. .But spring blooms have advanced well beyond normal, especially in southern Vermont where it has been warm all week. A few trees are already starting to green up down that way. 

I'm not sure yet, but Monday night's chill could harm new leaves, springs flowers and even possibly apple and strawberry crops. It depends on  how far buds open by Monday.

I'm full of great news, aren't I?

After that intense for the season cold snap, it will warm up somewhat, but most days through the end of the month and probably into early May will probably be slightly cooler than average. It might be showery at times during that period, but I doubt there will be any big storms. 

Another Severe Storm Risk Southern Vermont In The Summer Air. North To Stay Cool, Rainy Afternoon/Evening

There's a slight risk, level two of three of severe storms
today in the yellow shading. That includes southern Vermont
and central New York. Dark green indicates the possibility
of just very isolated high wind gusts with storms. 

 Our pesky stalled weather front is still with us, bringing warmth to southern Vermont and just seasonal, damp weather to the far north. 

The disparity was great again on Wednesday. In Burlington, the high was 53 degrees. Montpelier reached 57. But in Rutland, it was a summertime high of 77. Bennington reached 79 degrees.

We face yet another day of wide ranging temperatures today. And much like on Tuesday. we're in for another soaking rain north, and the risk of severe storms south. 

The front settled in south-central Vermont overnight. It will slowly lift back north as a warm front, but it probably won't reach far northern Vermont. So it will stay coolish and damp up there. The southern half of Vermont will have another summery day, one that will feel vaguely humid. 

Highs will range from just under 60 degrees at the Canadian border to around 80 degrees in the valleys near the Massachusetts border. 

SEVERE STORMS SOUTH?

I'm slightly more bullish on strong to severe storms in southern Vermont than I was Tuesday, when there were a few strong storms in far southern Vermont. But there are also factors that might prevent a lot of trouble. If the front moves a little north too slowly, it might not clear up and warm up enough to destabilize the air. 

But since the next disturbance will be approaching Vermont later in the day than on Tuesday, I think we can at least fire up some strong storms in the southern half of the state. The best chance of any severe storms would be along and south of Route 4, where NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a level 2 out of 5 risk level. 

The risk of an isolated strong wind gust or hail from a thunderstorm extends up to about Route 2, but ig anything happens in that zone, it should be very isolated. Unless our weather front surprises us and leaps further north than expected.

Always beware of weird springtime warm fronts. 

The later storm arrival schedule today will give time for storms to develop in western and central New York and reach Vermont during peak heating.  The storms will probably actually be stronger in New York state, but a few could reach the Green Mountain State at severe levels. 

That could mean pockets of damaging wind, and hail. There's a very slight chance some supercell thunderstorms could form just ahead often main batch storms. That means once again, there's a very, very low, but not quite zero chance of a brief spinup tornado. But don't focus on that. Focus on the potential wind damage in spots from storms. 

Some of the storms should also have torrential downpours. But the storms' forward motion will be fast enough to prevent much in the way of flooding. 

As always, this will be hit and miss. You won't know if a bad storm is headed your way until you see the dark clouds approaching, hear the thunder, and also maybe hear the weather warnings. 

Especially if you're going to be outdoors have a way to hear any possible warnings or weather statements.

WET NORTH

For northern Vermont, it'll be another wet day. Areas of fog and drizzle early this morning should lift somewhat, leading to relatively dry weather in the late morning and early afternoon. That's your chance to do anything you need to do outdoors. 

There might be a few spot light showers anytime after noon or so in the north. But the bulk of the rain should start to arrive around mid afternoon. The late afternoon and early evening should be quite wet in the north. The rain will taper to areas of drizzle and fog again later tonight. 

Even though northern Vermont will be along or north of that slow, nearly stalled front, that part of the state could still see some non-severe thunderstorms embedded with all the rain. 

Most of the north should see another half to three quarters of an inch of rain. A local downpour might drive the total to an inch in isolated spots. Again, even though it's wet and rivers are running kind of high, it appears the worst we can expect is very minor flooding. 

EVENING THINGS OUT

The disturbance causing today's potentially rough weather will finally be driven out.  Friday and Saturday look much more normal across the entire state. Skies will at least partly clear, and we won't see the big range in temperatures we've gotten used to this week. Highs should range from 60 far north to 70 southern Vermont valleys. So a nice day!

Saturday looks mild and breezy ahead of the next cold front, which will be coming in from the west. Enjoy Saturday, it might be the last nice day we have for awhile. 

SHARPLY COLDER

The cold front on Sunday really means business. It will throw some rain at us Saturday night. By Sunday, it will be downright chilly as temperatures during the day stay steady or fall through the 40s. 

There also might be a cost to all that warm weather in southern Vermont. Plants and trees down there will have really advanced prematurely into spring with all the balmy weather down there.  In the north, spring will not have gotten as far along, since it's been cooler. 

Monday looks frigid, with many of us not getting out of the 30s for highs. We'll have a hard freeze statewide, which could damage buds and sprouts, especially in southern Vermont where it's been really spring. 

We'll keep an eye out on that, but for now, we'll focus on the weather today. Be aware of those incoming storms central and south today. They could be doozies  

Stalled Front To Continue Harassing Vermont With Showers, Storms And Weird Temperatures

This morning's radar shows thunderstorms and heavy rain
in northwest New York near Watertown.  The rain
should weaken some by the time it gets to Vermont, but
it will make for a wet afternoon again. No severe
storms in Vermont today, but they're possible tomorrow

 I knew about an hour after I wrote yesterday's post that severe storms would avoid northern Vermont. North breezes started, introducing cool, stable air to that part of Vermont. 

The stalled west two east front was sharpening  up, with very warm air in southern Vermont, with kind of chilly air to the north. The result was a soaking rain north, and thunderstorms-  some strong  - in the south. 

Trees were reported down in Brattleboro and Vernon. One tree was reported to fall down onto Interstate 89 in Brattleboro, and another one temporarily blocked Route 142 in Vernon.

 Judging from radar images, I suspect the storm also might have caused some damage in lightly populated areas west of Brattleboro. 

We are more or less stuck with the same regime for the next couple of days at least. Northern Vermont should see highs in the 50s today, maybe getting into the low 60s tomorrow. Meanwhile, in the southern Vermont valleys. highs will generally reach the low to mid 70s

Disturbances will continue to ride west to east along our stalled front, causing daily bouts of showers, rain and thunderstorms. 

TODAY

The disturbance coming through this afternoon should be less intense than yesterday's. If there's any thunderstorms at all, they'd be limited to far southern Vermont with no risk of anything severe. 

The north will just be damp. The low clouds and fog early his morning might lift somewhat by noon, but it will still be clouding, cool and somewhat dank. The north should have a rising chance of showers this afternoon, but they won't be nearly as drenching as yesterday. Still, we expect a tenth to a quarter inch of rain this afternoon, so it won't be great being outdoors in that.  

Much like on Tuesday, the storms were in western New York early this morning and were producing a ton of lightning. But unlike yesterday, all that mess is likely to weaken quite a bit by the time it gets to Vermont. 

Highs should range from the low and mid 50s far north to upper 70s far south. Another one of those days! 

TOMORROW

Current severe thunderstorm forecast for tomorrow. Dark green
is level 1 out of 5 risk levels, meaning just a chance of isolated
trouble. Yellow shading is a slightly greater chance of
severe rather. Expect adjustments to this forecast.

A stronger disturbance will come along that stalled front tomorrow. At this point, it looks like Thursday's episode could be similar to yesterday's. 

At least in some ways. These stalled front situations always contain surprises. There will be adjustments to the forecast.  

For now, it looks like the low pressure rippling along the front might push the front northward a little. Since the small storm will be stronger than today's it could add lift and spin to the atmosphere. That means severe thunderstorms might be in play again for the southern half of Vermont. 

 Right now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center gives the highest chances for strong storms to western Rutland and Bennington counties and on into eastern and central New York.  But again, that will probably change somewhat with later forecasts

Northern Vermont can expect another drenching, probably much like yesterday. That means another good half inch of rain, with locally up to an inch. Especially after yesterday, rivers continue to run high, and tomorrow's rain will keep them up.  Flooding is still not expected, but I know the National Weather Service is keeping an eye on it in case rains are unexpectedly heavy. 

High temperatures are tricky for tomorrow, as we still have questions about the amount of cloud cover and the timing of the rain and storms. Early guesses are near 60 near the Canadian border to as high as 80 in the warmest valley floors of far southern Vermont. 

FRIDAY

Yet another disturbance is due Friday, but we don't yet know the strength and timing of that one. Chances are it will be weaker than the one we get tomorrow. 

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

We're finally going to shake out of this stalled weather pattern and front over the weekend, but not necessarily in the way you'd like. At this point, Saturday l, looks decent enough, with a fairly low chance of rain and mild temperatures, fingers crossed. 

But a more north to south oriented cold front will come in Sunday, followed by much colder air that will stick around for perhaps a week, give or take.  Sunday night and Monday look terrible for this time of year. Not record breaking by any stretch of the imagination, but still unpleasant.

We could get a little snow late Sunday night and early Monday, and highs Monday would barely make it into the low 40s. Normal highs for next Monday are in the mid and upper 50s.

The cold should relax a little after that, but it should stay cooler than normal .The generally cool weather has a shot at lasting into May, unfortunately.  

Tuesday Evening Update: Few Severe Thunderstorm Still Possible Southern Vermont Next Couple Hour. North Just Wet/Cold

National Weather Service radar showed plenty of rain in the
cool air north, with thunderstorms, with a risk of
them becoming severe heading toward southern
Vermont from New York in the warn air down 
there The severe risk should end later this evening. 

 The northern half of Vermont got cheated out of a warm day today, but that chilly air that became established prevented any severe thunderstorms from forming up there. 

However, its a different world south, and as of 4:30 p.m. strong to possibly severe storms were heading toward Vermonts southern four counties. 

That weather front that is draped west to east across our area sharpened up this afternoon.  Temperatures late this afternoon were near 50 in northern areas, with some upper 40s near the Canadian border.

 In this colder air, a disturbance riding west to east along the front was only able to create a rainy afternoon. Some of the rain came down hard at times, and a couple areas reported a rumble or two of thunder, but that's about it. 

As mentioned, southern Vermont is a different world. It was 77 degrees in Rutland, 79 in Bennington and 80 in Springfield as of 4 p.m. Some sun broke out too. The warmth and the sun has made the air  south of that stalled front unstable enough too support strong thunderstorms .  

Those thunderstorms were racing in from  New York State, Some of those storms prompted severe storm warnings. And a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect this evening for the four southern counties of Vermont. 

Judging by how fast they're moving. it looks like the last of those storms will leave southeastern Vermont hy 7 p.m. or so. The rain in northern Vermont should taper off by around the same time. 

That weather front will stay pretty much put over Vermont for the next couple of days. While the contrast might not be as great as it was today, it still looks like we'll have at least a seasonably cool north and a balmy south in the Green Mountain State. 

More rounds of showers and storms are likely both Wednesday and Thursday. The chances of severe storms seem lower than they were today. We'll still have locally heavier downpours here and there north days  It sill doesn't look like it'll be enough to cause much if anything in terms of flooding. 

I'll have much more on this weird weather in tomorrow morning's post. -