Roller Coaster: Rainy, Cold Vermont Day In Progress, More Rain Tomorrow Morning, Then Warm, Then Eventually Chilly.

A huge lilac tree in front my house brightens a gloomy
May Sunday in St Albans, Vermont. 

 I'm getting a very late start this Sunday morning, as I decided to really sleep in on a chilly, rainy morning. 

That state of affairs will continue the rest of the day, though it will be a light, occasional rain, and it should turn more showery later in the day. 

Earlier last week, I'd hoped high pressure to our northeast would steer the rain away from us. So much for that idea. But we could still use the rain, despite the drought being over for now. 

But a miserable day for late May is still in progress. Damp and chilly is the word. If you like gloomy late March weather, today is your lucky day. Temperatures in the 40s to around 50 will only go up a couple of degrees by this afternoon. The winds will turn fairly gusty in most areas, adding to the chill.

Most places should have gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range, but spots along the western slopes of the Green Mountains could see it go up to 45 mph.  This would be the first good windy day since the trees leafed out. Leaves are heavy, at least when you're weighting the thousands of them on a single tree.

The new leaves combined with the wind and rain could knock over a few trees. I expect there might be some widely scattered power outages. Nothing widespread or wild, but don't be surprises if your lights flicker if you're on those western slopes. 

Despite the nearly day-long dreariness, we won't actually get much more rain today. Through 9 a.m. most of Vermont had received a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. We'll get another tenth to a quarter inch by the time it gets dark this evening. 

MEMORIAL DAY

Unfortunately, the day will get off to a rough start. The way it looks now, rain will restart before dawn and continue through most of the morning. The rain will be heavier than today's,  amounting to at least a quarter to half inch. Statewide, we now expect storm totals to be somewhere near three quarters of an inch, give or take. So a decent soaking. 

It still looks like the rain will shut off nicely tomorrow afternoon, with some sun breaking out by late in the day. High temperatures will be much better than today, probably reaching a seasonal 70 degrees or so.

THE WEEK AHEAD

After a summer-like Tuesday, in which we'll flirt with 80 degrees, we'll have a slow cooling trend through the week, as an unusual weather pattern sets up. By next weekend, it could well be quite chilly for the season once again. 

It's a little unclear how cool it will get, but I'll more on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

Enjoy Vermont Spring Now, Because It Will Come To A Temporary Halt Late This Week

Some hyanicith and daffodils enjoying spring this
week in a St. Albans, Vermont garden 

Saturday was another gorgeous spring day in Vermont, though it did, as expected, cloud up quite a bit in southwestern parts of the state. 

We have basically three and a half days more wonderful spring weather coming up before the season comes to a grinding, though obviously temporary halt at the end of the week. Weather systems often stall in the spring. 

We're lucky enough now to be stuck under sunny high pressure. By the second half of the week, we'll be mired beneath a cold pool of cold air aloft, which means clouds, very chilly air, some rain showers, and yes, mountain snow. 

 I'll do the spoiler now: The halt to spring won't wreck your garden plants and trees, but it will stop the buds from popping and more flowers from bursting for a least a couple days. 

Let's get into the details

TODAY

The disturbance that dove southeast through New York State Saturday, giving much of that state a damp, rainy Saturday is heading off into the Atlantic Ocean. That Canadian high pressure that's been giving us the cool, generally sunny weather the past couple of days is taking over again. 

It's a big one, extending from Nunavut, up in the Arctic of northeastern Canada a little west of Greenland, all the way down to New England. 

Canadian high pressure is usually chilly. And the northern part is. The forecast high in Iqaluit, Nunavut today is 9 degrees, compared to a normal high of 20.  Yep, it's cold up there in the Arctic, Captain Obvious  tells us.

However, way down here in tropical New England (practice your southern accents, y'all), the strong late April sun is cooking the air mass and making it warmer and warmer. That's why Saturday was a little warmer than Friday. And why today will be a little toastier than yesterday. 

So we'll have quite a lot of sunshine with highs generally in the low 60s today. The Northeast Kingdom will be a little cooler in the upper 50s while southern valley floors probably reach the mid 60s. 

MONDAY AND TUESDAY

The spring sunshine train will continue as that high pressure holds firm.  It'll turn even warmer both days as we get well into the 60s. A few places will flirt with 70 degrees. That's 'actually only somewhat warmer than normal for this time of year. (Normal highs are near 60 degrees) We'll take it! 

The only problem with all this is the fire danger. It's very dry and very sunny, with very low humidity. Too many verys there but you get the point. Winds should be pretty light today and tomorrow, which will help. Even so, light winds don't prevent fires. They just don't spread as fast, but they do spread. 

A brush and woodland fire in Milton looks like it spread pretty quickly yesterday afternoon, and firefighters were on the scene for about four hours putting it out. 

It'll get windier on Tuesday, so that will be the day to really watch out for woodland and field blazes. 

WEDNESDAY

A transition day as we begin to flip toward the new, definitely less pleasant stuck weather pattern. Sunshine should fade behind clouds and there might be some rain drops toward the end of the day. Highs will still reach the 60s.

THURSDAY

This will be the rainiest of the days as low pressure becomes established overhead or at least nearby. Hard to say how much rain we'll get, but early projections suggest a half inch. So not all that much, but at least it will wet the ground down and end the fire danger. 

FRIDAY/ NEXT WEEKEND

The cold pool of air will sit overhead during this time, keeping us mostly cloudy and definitely cold for this time of year. Highs Friday and Saturday might not get out of the 40s for many of us, which is why I'm saying spring will come to a stop. Plants don't like to grow when it's in the 40s. At least we won't have any real freezes to hurt anything as nighttime temperatures should stay mostly in the 30s during this nippy spell.

Much of the time should be rain free, but there will always be a risk of light rain showers at any time. But especially in the afternoons and evenings as the April sun makes the cold air less stable. 

And yes, it will be cold enough for snow in the highest elevations. Not much, but some. And even in the valleys, a particularly robust shower might bring down some extra cold air, and you'll end up with something called graupel. 

Graupel is basically teeny tiny snowballs.  They are snowflakes that had super cooled water attach to them. So they're these little white sleety things that remind me of bits of packing material or styrofoam. 

So. Yay. 

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND

It'll warm up a little after next weekend, but we're stuck in a chilly, unsettled weather pattern at least into the middle of May, and possibly beyond. There's a good chance you'll see an occasional sunny, warmish day thrown in from time to time, but generally speaking, it will be cool and showery much of the time. 

It's way too soon to figure out if we'll get some soaking rains out of this pattern, or just some annoying sprinkles. As far as I'm concerned, if it's going to rain, we might as well get some good drenching here and there to get the gardens and farm fields in shape for the start of summer. 

Time will tell, as it always does..