Enjoy Vermont Spring Now, Because It Will Come To A Temporary Halt Late This Week

Some hyanicith and daffodils enjoying spring this
week in a St. Albans, Vermont garden 

Saturday was another gorgeous spring day in Vermont, though it did, as expected, cloud up quite a bit in southwestern parts of the state. 

We have basically three and a half days more wonderful spring weather coming up before the season comes to a grinding, though obviously temporary halt at the end of the week. Weather systems often stall in the spring. 

We're lucky enough now to be stuck under sunny high pressure. By the second half of the week, we'll be mired beneath a cold pool of cold air aloft, which means clouds, very chilly air, some rain showers, and yes, mountain snow. 

 I'll do the spoiler now: The halt to spring won't wreck your garden plants and trees, but it will stop the buds from popping and more flowers from bursting for a least a couple days. 

Let's get into the details

TODAY

The disturbance that dove southeast through New York State Saturday, giving much of that state a damp, rainy Saturday is heading off into the Atlantic Ocean. That Canadian high pressure that's been giving us the cool, generally sunny weather the past couple of days is taking over again. 

It's a big one, extending from Nunavut, up in the Arctic of northeastern Canada a little west of Greenland, all the way down to New England. 

Canadian high pressure is usually chilly. And the northern part is. The forecast high in Iqaluit, Nunavut today is 9 degrees, compared to a normal high of 20.  Yep, it's cold up there in the Arctic, Captain Obvious  tells us.

However, way down here in tropical New England (practice your southern accents, y'all), the strong late April sun is cooking the air mass and making it warmer and warmer. That's why Saturday was a little warmer than Friday. And why today will be a little toastier than yesterday. 

So we'll have quite a lot of sunshine with highs generally in the low 60s today. The Northeast Kingdom will be a little cooler in the upper 50s while southern valley floors probably reach the mid 60s. 

MONDAY AND TUESDAY

The spring sunshine train will continue as that high pressure holds firm.  It'll turn even warmer both days as we get well into the 60s. A few places will flirt with 70 degrees. That's 'actually only somewhat warmer than normal for this time of year. (Normal highs are near 60 degrees) We'll take it! 

The only problem with all this is the fire danger. It's very dry and very sunny, with very low humidity. Too many verys there but you get the point. Winds should be pretty light today and tomorrow, which will help. Even so, light winds don't prevent fires. They just don't spread as fast, but they do spread. 

A brush and woodland fire in Milton looks like it spread pretty quickly yesterday afternoon, and firefighters were on the scene for about four hours putting it out. 

It'll get windier on Tuesday, so that will be the day to really watch out for woodland and field blazes. 

WEDNESDAY

A transition day as we begin to flip toward the new, definitely less pleasant stuck weather pattern. Sunshine should fade behind clouds and there might be some rain drops toward the end of the day. Highs will still reach the 60s.

THURSDAY

This will be the rainiest of the days as low pressure becomes established overhead or at least nearby. Hard to say how much rain we'll get, but early projections suggest a half inch. So not all that much, but at least it will wet the ground down and end the fire danger. 

FRIDAY/ NEXT WEEKEND

The cold pool of air will sit overhead during this time, keeping us mostly cloudy and definitely cold for this time of year. Highs Friday and Saturday might not get out of the 40s for many of us, which is why I'm saying spring will come to a stop. Plants don't like to grow when it's in the 40s. At least we won't have any real freezes to hurt anything as nighttime temperatures should stay mostly in the 30s during this nippy spell.

Much of the time should be rain free, but there will always be a risk of light rain showers at any time. But especially in the afternoons and evenings as the April sun makes the cold air less stable. 

And yes, it will be cold enough for snow in the highest elevations. Not much, but some. And even in the valleys, a particularly robust shower might bring down some extra cold air, and you'll end up with something called graupel. 

Graupel is basically teeny tiny snowballs.  They are snowflakes that had super cooled water attach to them. So they're these little white sleety things that remind me of bits of packing material or styrofoam. 

So. Yay. 

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND

It'll warm up a little after next weekend, but we're stuck in a chilly, unsettled weather pattern at least into the middle of May, and possibly beyond. There's a good chance you'll see an occasional sunny, warmish day thrown in from time to time, but generally speaking, it will be cool and showery much of the time. 

It's way too soon to figure out if we'll get some soaking rains out of this pattern, or just some annoying sprinkles. As far as I'm concerned, if it's going to rain, we might as well get some good drenching here and there to get the gardens and farm fields in shape for the start of summer. 

Time will tell, as it always does..

March Was A Solidly Warm Month In Vermont

Paw prints left in the snow from Henry the Weather
 Dog after he took some weather observations on 
March 20 in St. Albans, Vermont. The month 
turned out to be solidly warmer than average.

The weather headlines in the United States was the extraordinary heat that shattered all-time record March highs. 

Vermont was on the outside of all this weather excitement, much cooler than the extreme heat in the South and West. 

Even so, we in Vermont ended up with a March that was solidly warmer than normal. As measured in Burlington, the average temperature was 36.4 degrees, a good 4.1 degrees milder than average. It was 19th warmest out of the past 139 years.

As the month opened, we had just been through four consecutive cooler than normal months, and were entering yet another winter cold wave. By the morning of March 2, it was below zero statewide.

But then, that was about it.  The warming trend peaked on March 7-12, when every day was at least 14.4 degrees warmer than normal. 

The heat peaked on March 10. Burlington reached 73 degrees, breaking the date's record high by an impressive 10 degrees. It was also the warmest temperature for so early in the season. Other hot Vermont cities that day include  71 in St. Johnsbury and 74 in Bennington, 

Before the mid-month heat wave, Vermont rivers were locked up in thick ice from a long, cold winter. The sudden warmth led to numerous ice jams in the Green Mountain State, Some of them caused minor flooding. It could have been a lot worse if there had been a lot of rain, but precipitation during the warm spell was light. 

The rest of the month toggled between relative warmth and winter chill, but there never were any particular extremes. 

Winter did return after the heat wave that was centered around March 10. A storm on March 20 had been forecast to dump half a foot of snow on northeastern Vermont, but only a couple inches in the Champlain Valley. 

Instead, nearly five inches of "wet cement" snow came down in just a few hours during the late morning an afternoon. It turned out to probably be the biggest traffic snarler since a similar late day dump of wet snow in November. 

It was a reminder that winter was not over. 

That day's snow (which fell as rain in southern Vermont) was a good shot of some needed precipitation, though. There's drought lingering from last autumn in parts of the state, so a wet spring is actually a good thing this  year. 

The news on the precipitation front in Vermont was sort of meh as rain and melted snow rain just about normal statewide. An exception was in the southwest, where Bennington turned up with a nice 4.36 inches of precipitation, which was 1.71 inches above normal ,

On the hand, Burlington;s precipitation of 2.27 inches was only 0.03 inches above average,  That was just the 68th wettest March out of the past 144 years. 

APRIL OUTLOOK

The month has begun with its usual schizophrenic attitude, with rapidly changing temperatures, and weather. 

Overall, NOAA expects most of the the U.S. to be warmer than normal in April. An exception is the Great Lakes a New England area a tossup: It'll end up either warmer or colder than normal, out somewhere near average. Precipitation would be above normal if NOAA's forecast is accurate. 

Northern New England/Canada Fire Danger Today; Still Hanging On Potential Rain Forecast Sunday/Monday

A hollyhock blossom basks in the sun and awaits 
forecasted rain Saturday morning in St. Albans, Vermont,

It hasn't rained here in northern Vermont since Sunday or since Tuesday down south. Both rainfalls were pathetically light. 

Since then, we've had lots of sun, and rock bottom humidity. Very nice, but not great for our developing drought. 

Today, the wind is picking up. There's definitely a risk of brush fires today. 

The drought in New England is most intense in Maine closest to the coast.

 The National Weather Service office in Caribou, Maine, is warning residents there of "potential for uncontrolled fire spread across the Downeast, Bangor Region and Central Highlands today."

Southeast Canada is on guard for fires, too. Unlike here in New England, places like New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland have already experienced large, damaging brush and forest fires. 

In New Brunswick, fire activity has decreased in recent days, which is awesome news, but they are on guard up there. In Nova Scotia, winds from offshore Hurricane Erin helped fan a large wildfire near West Dalhousie that has consumed about 32 square kilometers, or about 20 square miles. 

Here in Vermont, the forest fire danger remains high today, as the humidity remains arid, the sun continues to blaze and winds pick up. 

Luckily, it still looks like the fire danger will be tamped down starting tomorrow, though that might well be temporary. The drought will continue, but at least some rains will interrupt its worsening trend.   

RAINY BREAK 

This morning's National Weather Service rainfall
prediction map shows more than a half inch of
rain through Monday in most of Vermont. Rainfall
forecasts like this are subject to change. 

The increasing wind today is the first signs of the welcome rains.  It's also another sign summer is waning.  Summertime cold fronts don't generate much wind, except within strong or severe thunderstorms.  

Once you get into autumn, the parent storms with cold fronts start to get stronger, so the wind increases. 

That wind will peak tonight, with some places gusting as high as 35 mph.  That's obviously not especially dangerous, but you might want to unfurl those umbrellas over your deck tables before you go to bed tonight. 

The wind will not have had a chance to get too strong today, gusting to maybe 25 mph. Those breezes combined with low humidity will actually feel good even though temperatures get well into the 80s. 

Sunday will feel more humid, and there will be a rising chance of showers and thunderstorms through the day. Not everyone will get all that wet Sunday. Some places, especially south and east, might have to wait until Sunday night to start seeing some decent rains as the cold front starts moving into the region. 

Although a few of Sunday's storms might get a little rambunctious, meteorologists don't expect much in the way of severe weather. 

It looks like an interesting little storm will get going near the North Carolina coast and head quickly northeastward off of New England toward southeast Canada Monday. This might be sort of a semi-tropical system.  Up in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, this little storm looks like it could drop a lot of badly needed rain, which is great news for them.

Even though this storm won't directly affect Vermont, I'm mentioning it because it could give us a bit of an assist. 

National Weather Service meteorologists think this storm might slow down the cold front over Vermont Monday and boost it with a little extra moisture. That would prolong the rain we're getting and add to the overall totals. 

You can see that in the rain forecast from late Saturday through Monday. Northern New York looks like it will be a little too far west to benefit from that front slowing down on Monday. Some places out there might not even see a quarter inch of rain out of this,   

Vermont would get a little more, with many places seeing a half inch to an inch of rain. At least as something doesn't go wrong with the forecast and we get cheated out of rain again. I'm not going to rejoice until I see water in my rain gauge. 

The rainfall totals is will be highly variable again, because of the expected scattered thunderstorms. Some Vermont towns might miss out and receive less than a half inch of rain, while other places could get bonus storms that would bring rainfall totals to as much as 1.5 inches. 

RAIN SHUTS OFF

If the current schedule holds, most of the rain Monday would come early in the day with perhaps a bit of clearing later. 

Unfortunately, the predicted rain Sunday and Monday seems to be a one-off and not a change in the weather pattern toward something soggier.

It'll be a cool week with air coming down from Canada.  The ginger ale is called Canada Dry for a reason. There's not much atmospheric moisture up there. Weak disturbances in the air flow might touch off some light showers. 

That could be especially true on Thursday, as a lot of the computer models swing a reinforcing cold front through here. Basically just count on sprinklers.  Most of us will seen a tenth of an inch of rain or less next week after Monday. 

The cooler than average air will probably last until next weekend. At that point, it could start to warm up a bit, but persistent high pressure nearby would keep wet weather fronts away for awhile.   

We're not going to easily shake out of our dry weather pattern heading into autumn. It might be time to start hoping for the remnants of old tropical storms to come through in September and early October, followed by a series of nor'easter later in the autumn and into the winter. 

Yes, you saw it here first. I'm actually hoping for bad weather.  

"Boring" Vermont Spring Weather A Welcome Change From The Usual Chaos

Daffodils enjoying another mild spring morning today
in their St. Albans, Vermont garden plot.

This spring in Vermont - pretty much this year so far actually - has been remarkably mellow, at least in terms of weather. 

Sure, we had a big February snowstorm, some weird mid-March warmth and a damaging ice storm at the end of March, but - knock on wood - we have not had a chaotic weather year so far in Vermont. 

No epic spring snowstorms, no record summer-like heat waves, no floods to speak of, and few wild swings from hot to cold. 

That's a nice contrast to the extremes and disasters we've seen in Vermont in recent years, and the many dangerous, deadly tornadoes, floods and wildfires many other parts of the U.S. have endured so far this year. 

April so far has been especially quiet in the Green Mountain State. 

Conditions in the past couple of weeks have plodded along with extraordinary ordinariness, if that makes sense. Temperatures and precipitation this month have been close to normal. Temperatures have never really gotten that hot or that cold. 

We've had only one day in Burlington so far this month that was more than ten degrees above or below normal. We sometimes have several April days that are 20 degrees warmer or colder than the average for the date

I know I've probably jinxed it with this post and we'll now face months of scary weather. But for now, I'm not seeing any big weirdness coming our way.

However, things in the weather department are about to shake up from the doldrums just a little. 

On the agenda is a low risk of thunderstorms today, a likely soaking weekend rain, and - perhaps - the first summer like day of the season in northern Vermont. (Southern parts of the state already had one summery day a little over a week ago).

TODAY

A little disturbance racing through late this afternoon and early tonight might be enough to set off some showers and maybe even a couple weak thunderstorms. Anything that develops will be hit and miss and if storms do get going, they not even be close to severe. It's just another reminder that we're getting into that warm season showery regime.

So far this month, when it has rained, for the most part each episode has featured only pretty light showers. There's been a couple of exceptions, but there's been no "wow" factor to any storms.

WEEKEND SOAKER THEN WARMTH?

Friday night and Saturday, it looks like we are in for a pretty good wetting. This one won't be extreme, either, but early indications are most of us should see a half inch of rain at least, with a few places getting an inch.

That amount won't break any records and absolutely won't cause any flooding worries, but it could be the wettest storm of the month for many of us. The gardens could use a good soaking, so that's OK. 

In northern Vermont, temperatures have not gotten above 70 degrees since mid-March. In the past decade or two, it's gotten rare to have an April without any 70 or even 80 degree weather, so this month is so far an oddity.

But as the month draws to a close, it looks like we might finally get a brief squirt of summer-like air. If the showers hold off long enough next Tuesday, places like Burlington could make a run at 80 degrees.

We shall see.

The only disconcerting thing I see in the extended forecast is the possibility of a cold storm stalling overhead or nearby around May 7. If that happened, we'd have a big interruption in spring and maybe even some snow.

I would rate this as highly unlikely, though. Such long range forecasts are seldom accurate, so I wouldn't worry too much about that.    

Not A Springlike Week In Vermont, But Much Better Than Winter! Month Will Still Average Out Warm

Daffodil shoots re-emerging from the snow in St. Albans
Vermont last Friday after the sun came out following morning 
snow.  This week in Vermont won't be particularly
springlike, either, but we've gotten to the point in the
season that we probably won't have to deal with
intense winter cold again until late November or December.

 It's going to be a seasonably chilly week in Vermont, but nothing unusual for the final eight days of the month. 

It will just feel cold because of the oddly warm March we've had so far. 

Sunday was the first notably colder than normal day we've had this month since March 3  Even so, it wasn't that far below normal and pretty routine for this time of year. 

Although we'll have to deal with some wintry-ish weather, particularly this morning, again, we should count our blessings. 

THIS MORNING'S SNOW

A warm front of sorts is coming from the southwest. We're still on the cold side of that front, of course, so snow is breaking out.

It won't be much, but as usual it seems, the timing is atrocious, right in time for the morning commute. Since it was chilly yesterday and last night, the snow won't melt right off the roads, either. 

So for a few of us, it is slow, slick drive to work or school this morning, unfortunately.  Only a little snow can make a mess.  The weather radar this morning looked worse than it really is, as dry air is evaporating some of the snow as it falls.

Some traffic cameras in central Vermont are showing a little snow on the roads. But many places were looking really good. So it looks like spotty trouble this morning for the rest of the commute but not a full-blown disaster on the roads. 

We're only expecting less than an inch in the Champlain Valley and one to two inches in a lot of other places. And that is probably too generous a forecast.as precipitation early this morning is much lighter and spottier than originally forecast

This little blip of snow will all taper off to scattered rain light rain showers this afternoon as we get up near 40 degrees.

REST OF THE WEEK

Tuesday through Friday look uneventful, so that's good. Temperatures will run slightly cooler than normal, but nothing out of the ordinary. (Mostly highs 35-45, lows in the 20s).  

It'll be unsettled with frequent chances of light rain or snow showers, but it won't amount to much at all

The next chance of a  larger storm comes next weekend, but the details are iffy at this point. So far, that weekend storm appears as it will be mostly rain. We'll keep an eye on it. 

IN PERSPECTIVE

With this week's seasonable weather, we won't come close to having our warmest March on record, despite readings in Burlington reaching the 70s three times before March 20.

The warmest March by far was in 2012 with an average temperature of 43.2.  That was the weird month in which Burlington hit the low 80s on three days in a row and was 76 degrees or above for five days in a row 

To be honest, I'm not even sure this March will make the list of top 10 warmest, but it might. We'll see.

This won't be a springlike week, but think about how far we've come from winter.  At least in the Champlain Valley and warmer spots around Vermont, it's now too late in the season for it to get below zero. (All bets are off in the Northeast Kingdom, though).

There's a chance that we might not have any more subfreezing high temperatures in the Champlain Valley until next winter.  Although we have been known to see a few high temperatures at or below 32 degrees as late as the third week in April.

We could always get a big snowstorm well into April, so we're not necessarily done with that type of thing. Just last year, many of us had a foot or so of wet snow on April 4.   But, if it does snow like that, it always melts away within a few days at most.

After catching up to near normal after some snowstorms in February, the season's snowfall, at least as measured in Burlington is well below average again.  It has barely snowed this month, with just 3.3 inches so far in March, plus whatever we get today. 

Snowfall for the season so far in Burlington is 67.7 inches, or about a foot below what we should have had by now. 

I still don't see any more 70 degree afternoons in the forecast for awhile.  But don't worry, that will return soon enough as we inevitably get warmer and warmer as we head through the spring and toward summer. 

Before you know it, you'll be whining that it's too hot and humid. 

  

Spring Officially Arrives In Vermont In VERY Springlike Fashion, But It Won't Last

Last week, I burned my brush pile while there was still
snow on the ground to minimize the threat of it spreading.
DO NOT burn your brush pile today. Dry grass and last
year's dead leaves can easily ignite into an out of
control brush fire with today's gusty winds. 

 Astronomical spring arrived in Vermont and of course the rest of the eastern U.S. at precisely 5:01 a.m. this morning. 

The arrival of spring and the arrival of spring weather in Vermont are often two very different things, but this time, the two gelled. 

At 5 a.m. today, at a time of day temperatures are usually in the 20s this time of year, it was 53 degrees in Burlington. On Wednesday, it got up to 72 degrees in Burlington, the warmest so far this year. 

It actually doesn't get to 70 degrees all that often in March up in Vermont. In the past 125 years in Burlington, it has only gotten to 70 degrees in Burlington in 19 Marches. 

It's even more rare to have two days in the 70s in the same March as we will this year.  And it's possible today might be day Number 3 this month to make it into the 70s. 

That amount of warm March air isn't a record, though. In the bonkers, insanely warm March of 2012 it goes into the 70s on five days, with three of those reaching the low 80s.

With climate change, this isn't your grandfather's Vermont spring, is it?

I also noticed overnight from my perch on St. Albans hill that the ice has flushed out of St. Albans Bay, and it's blue water down there now. That lack of ice is a little earlier than usual. 

This being Vermont, you can't count on winter departing once it is spring, even if this warmer world we're living in today. 

TODAY: WARM, WINDY AND FIERY?

Today will be the final day for quite awhile in which you can enjoy shorts and t-shirt weather in Vermont. 

It'll be breezy, especially in the northern Champlain Valley as clouds begin to increase this afternoon.

We're actually joining so much of the nation today with a fire danger.  Nothing extreme, like we've seen in California, Texas, Oklahoma, the Carolinas and other states this year. But with last year's dead grasses, weeds, plants and stuff not having greened up yet, it's easy to set things alight while being careless with fire. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Park and Recreation today has  listed a very high risk of brush fires today,   in places where the snow has melted away. The Champlain Valley is especially susceptible to brush fires as that's where today's winds will be strongest, and the snow is long gone.

I'm so glad I did my annual brush pile burn last week, while there was still snow on the ground.  

COLD FRONT/SNOW

We're still watching that cold front that will put an end to the warm weather tonight. 

It's BACK! Our familiar National Weather Service snow
forecast map. Luckily, most of us shouldn't get much
snow Friday morning, but it could be enough to
make some the roads iffy for Friday's morning commute. 

Rain will move in tonight as temperatures drop.  There's not that much snow left to melt, and the rain won't be especially heavy, so I'm not too worried about any new flooding in Vermont.

 Rivers will run kinda high tonight and tomorrow, but shouldn't cause any real high water problems. 

We still have a storm that will ride north along the front as a sort of nor'easter, which will help pull down colder air and change the rain to snow by morning in many areas. 

For those of you who are tired of winter, sone good-ish news. Less snow will fall that we thought while looking at forecasts a few days ago. 

 Most places away from the mountains should only get a dusting to a couple of inches. However, the snow will hit right during the Friday morning commute, and it wouldn't take much snow to make the roads a bit scary.

So build that possibility into your plans if you're headed off to work or school tomorrow morning. 

THEN WHAT?

That snow will head out quickly Friday morning and it will actually clear up west to east during the day. It will be blustery and much colder, with highs only in the low to mid 40s west and 30s east.

From there on out for the foreseeable future, we should revert back to the usual late March chilly variability. Some days won't be too bad, others will feature at least a little rain or wet snow. Temperatures look like they will pretty much stay near to below normal pretty much every day tomorrow through the beginning of April.

Saturday will actually be sort of mild ahead of a the next cold front. Sunday looks largely sunny and cold, while more rain and snow make a run at us Monday. It's too early to say how much of that schmutz we'll get, but at this point it doesn't look like a huge storm. 

After that, it's nearly impossible to tease out what will come through and when, but next week and the week after that should put a late season chill in your bones. 

On the bright side, it's no longer winter, so most afternoons through the next couple weeks will at least get above freezing.   You take what you can get, right?

Monday Evening Vermont Flood Update, Water Receding But Weather To Turn "Interesting" Again?

Winooski River running high and muddy late this 
afternoon near Burlington, Vermont's Intervale. 

 Today was a gloomy Gus of a day over Vermont with fog, drizzle, light rain and light sno .

Oh, and flooding. 

The flooding stayed minor, but it was widespread. Rivers were running high or in minor flood stage from the Canadian border to Massachusetts.  

In most places, the water is beginning to recede, but a lot of roads near rivers and streams are still closed by high water. 

Keep away from those roads until the water goes down and the road closure signs disappear.  There might still be some roads closed tomorrow morning, so keep that in mind as you head to work or school.

Rainfall was in line with expectations, with around an inch in southern Vermont and a third to two thirds of an inch from about Route 4 north. That amount of rain doesn't normally cause flooding. It was the massive amount of snow melt that did it under those May-like temperatures over the weekend. 

The rain kept going today because a wave of low pressure formed along the cold front that came through early today. Thankfully, the rain was light, so it had little if any effect on water levels. The rain also turned  light snow north and mountains, which effective shut off any more water runoff.

I see the hill in back of my house in St. Albans, Vermont at about 1,100 feet in elevation is now white capped again, though the snow didn't stick in my yard at about 650 feet. 

Tonight will be seasonably chilly as any light snow ends overnight and skies clear. Temperatures for virtually all of us will go below freezing, meaning the muddy morass on dirt roads might firm up a bit. 

Not for long

A NEW HEAT WAVE

It's going to get unseasonably hot again for March for a few days. 

Under sunny skies, it'll get to near 50 tomorrow, which is warmer than normal but not incredible for March. 

By Wednesday, many of us will be in the mid 60s. Those won't be record highs, mostly because of the extreme warmth of the Great March Heat Wave of 2012, which gave us a week of summer-like weather. 

Thursday also looks warm and windy, kind of like Sunday was, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s instead of the near 70 we had on Sunday .

A WINTRY SURPRISE?

The storm coming in Thursday night and Friday is looking more and more interesting. It's beginning to appear that it won't be a simple cold front that will push some rain through and then much colder temperatures. 

It's beginning to look like a strong wave of low pressure could form along the front and become a pretty impressive nor'easter. If that happens, heavy rain could turn to heavy wet snow later Thursday night and Friday. 

Too soon to know the details but we could either receive enough rain to cause new flooding, or we could see a very heavy, wet late season snowstorm, Or something between those two extremes, 

We'll have to keep an eye on this weird one closely.  Watch this space for more details as we get updates this week. 

Sunday Evening Vermont Storm Update: Winds Cause Issues Before Rains

Gusty winds, very warm temperatures and chaotic cloudy
skies this afternoon over St. Albans, Vermont preceded
some rain that will enhance the flood risk overnight.
Most of the flooding will from rapidly melting snow.

 Some strong, gusty winds have been able to develop especially in western Vermont this afternoon, hinting at just how dynamic the storm that afflicted much of the United States has been. 

I'd estimate peak gusts at my St. Albans hillside house at between 50 and 55 mph. I heard some large branches breaking in the woods up behind the house.  Gusts have reached at least 48 mph in Burlington. 

Vermont Outages reported nearly 2,000 homes and businesses without power late this afternoon, mostly i northwest Vermont, where the winds have been strongest.

A wind advisory is in effect until 10 p.m. tonight for Vermont along and west of the Green Mountains. 

It was super warm today, as you might have noticed. It reached at least 70 degrees in Burlington, tying the mark for the fourth earliest 70 on record. 

Until 1990, the earliest 70 in Burlington was March 23, 1938. The earliest 70 on record is now on February 25, 2017. That's one example of how climate change has really altered the weather record books 

The dew point, a measure of humid it is out there, has gotten into the low 50s in some spots. That's extremely humid for March (but not for August, BTW).  Humid, windy air melts snow faster, so it's probably really disappearing fast from those areas that still have snow.    

As far as flooding goes, the forecast hasn't changed. Mostly minor flooding as expected as the snow melt rushes down from the hills and mountains.  River levels continue to run a little higher than forecast late this afternoon. Probably because more snow has melted than originally thought. 

However, slightly less rain tonight than earlier predictions might offset that. It should only rain hard for two or three hours later this evening until around midnight or a little after. There might even be a rumble of thunder or two with this.  Light rain will follow into Monday morning. with several additional hours of light rain. 

Still, the amount of snow melt can be unpredictable, so there could be some surprises in flood plains here and there early Monday. 

Needless to say, Vermont is still under a flood watch now through most of Monday. 

I noticed some weird little blips and quick rises and falls of water levels along the Mississquoi River. That indicates ice is still moving on the river and there could be some ice jams. 

I'd pay attention to road conditions early Monday. We're certainly not going to have snow or ice to worry about. But some low-lying roads might be flooded.

Also, with this prolonged, intense thaw, mud season has gotten off to a miserable start. I'd image some dirt roads are virtually impassable. 

Vermont Weather This Week: Springtime Arrives, But With A Big Interruption

A couple inches of new snow from overnight in St.
Albans, Vermont this morning should quickly
start to melt today as temperatures rise into the 40s

If you've been waiting for spring, this will definitely be your week. 

But being Vermont, it's not like it's all going to be balmy breezes and sunshine and rainbows and bird song all the time. But you'll see your share of that, too. 

There's always interruptions to springtime here. If you're not used to that by now, I don't know what to tell you. 

Many of us awoke this morning to a fresh coating of snow, thanks to a quick moving disturbance that zipped through this morning.

 Some places got a fair amount of snow. I measured 2.0 inches here in St. Albans, Vermont. Stowe reported 3.5 inches as of 1 a.m. and it was still coming down at a good clip at that hour. Calais, Vermont reported 3.8 inches of new snow. 

I'm sure we'll see a couple five inch reports from some of the higher elevations. 

TODAY

That snow is pretty much over. And if you're in the maple sugar industry, get ready for another sap run! 

Temperatures before dawn in the Champlain Valley were already starting to sneak to above freezing levels, so last night's snow should start to melt fast. Sunshine should break out later this morning or by afternoon and we'll see temperatures up into the low and mid 40s  for many areas of the state. There could be some readings near 50 degrees in warmer southern Vermont valleys. 

That's nothing weird for mid-March, but it's still welcome, considering also the wind will be fairly light. The sun angle is similar to the way it was in late September, too. It will actually feel a little warmer than it actually will be.  

More or less clear skies and light winds tonight will drop us all below freezing tonight, which is - again - a good thing if you're in the maple industry. 

TUESDAY

It wasn't very warm in St. Albans late Sunday afternoon 
with temperatures only in the mid-30s, but the sky sill
managed to have a sort of springlike look to it. 
The moon is visible as the white speck in the middle 
of that patch of blue sky. 

We're getting a quick squirt of warm air Tuesday ahead of a cold front. The broader valleys will get well into the 50s   

Maybe even low 60s in banana belt low elevation towns in southern Vermont like Bennington, Brattleboro and Springfield.  This will be the mildest air we've seen all year so far. Again, those of you in the maple industry better prepare for a busy, busy day.  

Then there's that cold front. There's always a cold front. It's Vermont, after all. This front means business, not in terms of any precipitation, but what it's going to do to our temperatures. 

 It might trigger some late Tuesday afternoon showers central and northern Vermont, and then...

WEDNESDAY

After just a few scattered snow showers with the front overnight Tuesday, we'll be in some pretty chilly air. We'll start Wednesday in the teens, and everybody except the warmest southern Vermont valleys should stay below freezing all days.  That's a good ten degrees colder than average. 

But at least the sun will be out at least and winds will be light, so it won't be awful. Plus the cold air will be out of here in a jiffy

THURSDAY

A warm front should come through early, perhaps throwing down a handful of snowflakes or rain drops early in the day. It'll be the start of a huge warm up.  Though highs Thursday will only be in the seasonable low 40s

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

 A new, massive spring storm will gather forces and blast through the central Plains this weekend. Typical of these storms, it will spread misery through vast parts of the nation.  We'll see a blizzard to the northwest of the storm; tornadoes and severe thunderstorms to the south; wildfires and dust storms again in New Mexico and Texas, and lots of wind from the Rockies to the East Coast.

As this storm forms, it will pull huge amounts of warm air from the Gulf of Mexico into the eastern half of the United States. (You can call it Gulf of America if you want, but that's not what it is, despite the demands of our Dear Leader).

For us, Friday and this weekend promises to bring us some true spring weather. We could get into the low 60s in some parts of Vermont maybe Friday, but more likely Saturday and Sunday. If this pans out, it will be the hottest weather the Green Mountain State has seen since early November, 2024. 

If any sun manages to linger into Sunday, it could actually hit 70 degrees in a couple spots that day. 

We will have to watch for the possibility of flooding with this early season hot spell.   The warm air coming in is humid, as it's coming from the Gulf.  The snow will be melting rapidly anyway, and humid air melts snow faster than dry air. 

Also, the massive storm will probably drag a wet cold front through Vermont sometimes on Sunday or Sunday night. We don't know how much rain will fall with it, but it could come down hard for a time.   If this forecast pans out, then by Monday, virtually all of the snow below 1,000 feet in elevation will be gone.  A good chunk of mountain snow will have run off into melt water, too. 

That's an awful lot of snow to get rid of in a short period of time. And an awful lot of run off, too.  We'll have to watch carefully as this could well result in a flood. 

It's way, way too soon for specifics. I would say at least minor flooding is going to happen. But we'll have to wait and see how widespread that will get, and how serious the flooding might be. 

As wonderful as it will feel to have those days of springtime warmth, it could prove to be too much, too soon.  

Baked Alaska: How That Frigid Northern State Not So Frigid This Winter, Compared To The Lower 48.

Not something you see very often: Water on top of ice
during a January thaw in normally frigid interior 
Alaska. Photo taken last week near Fairbanks. Photo
from National Weather Service office, Fairbanks. 

The Washington Post just had an interesting piece comparing the kind of January Alaska has had compared to the rest of us in the tropical Lower 48. 

Compared to Alaska, the Lower 48 ain't so tropical.  There's quite a role reversal going on. 

Anchorage, Alaska is having one of its warmest Januaries on record. With just a few days left in the month, the average temperature for January is 29.3 degrees, or a whopping 13 or so degrees warmer than normal.

Anchorage in January has been warmer than such cities as Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, St. Louis and Louisville. 

We also had that famous snowstorm along the Gulf Coast earlier this month, which means New Orleans and Pensacola, Florida have had more snow this January than Anchorage. 

It's not just Anchorage. Fairbanks, in interior Alaska, is normally known as a forbidding icebox, where low temperatures often get into the 40s below zero and sometimes in the 50s to near 60 below. 

For only the second time on record, Fairbanks had a low temperature on a January day that was above freezing. (33 on January 25). On seven days this month,  the temperature in Fairbanks rose above 32 degrees. 

The normal high during January is 3 above zero and the normal low is about 15 below.  

Meanwhile, most of the Lower 48 has been unusually cold this January. That's especially true in the southeastern half of the United States. Though that region is having a mild spell in the closing days of this month, it will still be among the colder Januaries on record in much of the South.

The only regions of the Lower 48 that have been warmer than average are Maine, and large sections of Nevada, California, Oregon and Utah. 

REASONS AND OUTLOOK

The Alaska warmth is probably a mix between a fluke and climate change. A persistent northward bulge in the jet stream has kept Alaska on the mild side. A corresponding dip in the jet stream has pushed frigid air that's normally up in Alaska and northern Canada down into the United States. 

A marine heat wave, which is a zone of much warmer than normal ocean temperatures, has been ongoing in the Pacific from near Japan to the Gulf of Alaska. The marine heat wave is likely at least partly due to climate change and has probably been bolstering the Alaska balminess.

Plus, cold waves are in general less cold than they once were and hot spells are hotter in this age of climate change. That's likely a factor that has caused record heat in Alaska.  

The cold temperatures in the Lower 48 have broken few record lows, except near the Gulf Coast, where a previously unheard of snow cover combined with clear nighttime skies caused all time record lows as cold as 1 below zero not far from the Gulf of Mexico in Louisiana. 

(Editor's note: Yes, the Trump administration has renamed it Gulf of America, but international regulators, as well as the Associated Press style book still call it the Gulf of Mexico, so that's what we'll do here). 

The Alaska winter warmth is expected to mostly continue for awhile yet. The latest National Weather Service extended forecast out to two weeks calls for continued above normal temperatures in most of Alaska at least until a tad before Valentine's Day.  

For the Lower 48, the outlook is mixed, with variable conditions over the next two weeks. The northwestern United States is most likely to stay on the chilly side. 

Theses kinds of things do have a tendency to even out, usually. Although everything is skewed by climate change, I'm sure the Lower 48 will have its torrid hot spells in 2025 while Alaska will at least at times, revert back to its usual chilly vibe 

Burlington, Vermont's Longest Ever Streak Of Continuously Above Zero Temperatures Could End This Weekend.

Rime ice on trees on Burlington, Vermont's waterfront on
a subzero morning in February, 2023.  Burlington has, as
of this month, broken a record for most consecutive days
continuously above zero. That streak has a very good
chance of being broken this weekend. 

As of yesterday, Burlington, Vermont has gone - by my calculation, - 661 consecutive days without the temperature going to or below 0 degrees.  

The last time it was zero degrees, as measured at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, was on February 26, 2023.  

The old record for consecutive days above zero was 654 days between February 22, 2000 and December 9, 2002.

In more than 120 years of records, Burlington has only had two winters in which the temperature never got to zero. 

Those were the winter of 2001-02 and last winter, which was the warmest on record.  The winter of 2001-02 used to be the warmest on record, but we've had four other winters since 2015-16 that were even toastier.

It's just another example of how climate change has affected our seasons here in Vermont. 

WEEKEND SETUP

All big streaks must come to an end, and I'd give the chances of the current continuous stretch of above zero temperatures ending this weekend at about 50/50.

We have a couple factors that favor it.   A weak system should dump an inch or two of snow on Burlington later today through Saturday morning. It will be light and fluffy and not amount to much.  But snow cover helps make clear, calm nights cooler.   

Another factors is that a strong high pressure system will be oriented to pull Arctic air down from northern Quebec. 

Then that high will settle pretty much overhead, especially Sunday night and early Monday.  When that happens, winds tend to die off and skies clear. Which means Burlington has a pretty strong shot at being at or below zero by dawn Monday. 

There's a few factors that might work against it getting below zero.  A thick, deep fresh snow cover is much more effective at refrigerating winter nights than the measly inch or two we're likely to see on the ground in Burlington this weekend. 

Winds stirring through Sunday morning might keep temperatures above zero in the Champlain Sunday morning. By dawn Monday, the core of the coldest air will be beginning to head off to the east, which could prevent a zero degree reading. 

Also, Lake Champlain is still warm and almost entirely free of ice. I don't think the warm influence of the lake will extend all that strongly to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, which is a few miles inland from the lake.

But the contrast between the warm lake and cold air could generate clouds. If that happens, the clouds would tend to keep temperatures above zero.

So it's a tossup as to whether it will hit zero in the Champlain Valley.  It's a lock for below zero weather in most of the rest of Vermont and adjacent New York and New Hampshire. And Quebec for that matter. 

The coldest hollows of Northeast Vermont and the Adirondacks could be in the teens to near 20 below during this episode.

SUBZERO WEATHER DECLINING

Subzero nights in the Champlain Valley are still routine in most winters, but their numbers are declining. 

Attitudes like that depicted in this cartoon are getting
more rare in Vermont as the number of days that
get below zero are declining. 

Accurate daily temperature records for the winter started in about 1901-02.  In the 88 years between that winter and the winter of 1989-90, only seven winters had fewer than ten days that got below zero.

In the 33 years since then, 13 winters had fewer than ten subzero days. 

It's possible the heat island effect from added commercial development in South Burlington has contributed some to the lack of subzero nights in recent years, but climate change is almost surely having a hand in it, too.

If you're a glutton for punishment and like subzero weather, there's always the possibility we could have a  winter with a lot of 'em.  Some winters will still be cold, depending on weather patterns, with or without climate change.

But as the world heats up,  the chances of seeing a winter with dozens of subzero nights locally here in Vermont  keeps declining. 

The record for the most days that got to zero or colder in one season is 45 such day, back in the frigid winter of 1933-34. In February, 1979, we had 12 consecutive days with temperatures below zero, with the coldest in the streak at 30 below, a tie for the coldest on record in Burlington. 

 I'll almost guarantee we'll never see something like that again.  

Long Vermont September Warm Streak Is Over For Now, Dry Spell Is Not

A small, dying rain shower looking east from St.
Albans, Vermont on yet another unseasonably warm
September evening Friday. The state managed to
see a few scattered sprinkles for the first time in over
 a week. Dry weather with a cooling trend today
through Monday. 

We had one last day of temperatures at or above 80 on Friday in much of Vermont, and that could be the last time it's that warm until next spring. 

A cooling trend is now underway.  Summer can't last forever, you know. 

WARM RECORDS

Burlington managed a high of 80 degrees Friday, the eighth and very likely last day in a row of such temperatures. 

The National Weather Service office in South Burlington said this easily broke the record for the latest in the season we've had eight days in a row of such warmth.  

The previous record for the latest eight day streak of 80 degree temperatures was from September 4-11, 2016.

This year is now tied with 2016 as having the most days in Burlington that reached at least 80 degrees. We've had 85 of them in 2024.

The September warmth over the past eight days has only broken a few daily record highs, none of which occurred in Burlington. 

Montpelier had highs of 81 degrees for three days in a row Tuesday through Thursday, each tying the record high for those dates. 

St. Johnsbury reached 84 degrees Thursday, breaking the record high of 80 degrees that had been set in 2015.

The chances of us hitting 80 degrees again this autumn are rapidly declining, as average temperatures are crashing as we head deeper into the season. Still, an 80 is possible for a few more weeks, as the latest on on record in Burlington was on October 25, 1963.

RAIN!

It sprinkled in parts of Vermont Friday, which should be an incredibly unremarkable thing to say, but after many days without any, it was something. Friday's brief spritzes weren't exactly Storm Of The Century, but those mild raindrops amounted to Storm Of The Week.

It rained lightly for a whole three minutes here in St. Albans, Vermont in the midafternoon. as a dark cloud moved overhead. My outdoor deck was even damp for a few minutes until the sun came back out. Burlington also managed a trace of rain, the first time that's happened since September 9.

A few pinpoint showers were probably heavy enough to yield measurable rainfall, but everything was under a tenth of an inch. 

Heavy rain wasn't all that far away.  Cape Cod and other places in southeastern New England were drenched over the past couple of days with several inches of rain from a sluggish offshore storm.

Those raindrops some of us saw Friday in Vermont were mostly associated with a weak "wrong way" cold front coming in from the northeast. (You might have noticed Friday's little showers moved east to west, opposite of the way they usually move around here). 

This wrong way cold front is a harbinger of gradual changes in Vermont's weather. 

THE CHANGES

At 80 degrees, Friday was the "coldest" day in Burlington since September 12. 

Each day for the next few will be cooler than the day before. Still nice, but not summery. We had daytime temperatures in the low to mid-70s today. Expected highs will be in low 70s Sunday and Monday and 60s Tuesday and probably Wednesday.  Those cooler temperatures are still pretty close to normal for this time of year. It will just seem cool after all those toasty days we've been through. 

For now, it will stay mostly dry, as the blocky weather pattern will keep sunny high pressure nearby. Finally, mostly by later Tuesday and into Wednesday, some actual rain showers - not just sprinkles - could work their way into Vermont. 

If current forecasts pan out, I'm still not super impressed by the amounts of rain that are coming this way next week. But the overall new pattern coming in seems to favor at least the chance of showers over several days starting later Tuesday, so I guess chances are the sky faucets will finally be turned back on. 

The overall weather pattern continues to lean toward warmer than average weather most days heading into early October.  

Burlington Has 6th Day In A Row In 80s, Could Set Late Season Record For Consecutive Ones

Another warm, sunny, somewhat hazy day Wednesday
as seen in Richmond, Vermont. This spell of 80 
degree weather might set a late season record if
it continues for a couple more days. 

Another September day, another warm one as the long streak continues. 

The high temperature in Burlington Wednesday was 85 degrees, making it the sixth day in a row in the 80s. 

If it gets into the 80s today and Friday, it'll be the longest stretch of consecutive 80s for so late in the season, the National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us. 

A high in the 80s today is very likely,  but tomorrow is a little iffy. 

This warm spell has so far been nearly identical to another on on the same dates in 2018.  

That year ended up being the second warmest September on record in Burlington, thanks to that mid-month warm spell and an even more intensely hot spell earlier in the month. 

It's a little soon to say how this September might rank compared to others overall, but so far, we're still running cooler than 2018. 

The warmth this week has mostly fallen just short of setting daily record highs. Montpelier on both Tuesday and Wednesday did manage to tie its record high for the date of 81 degrees.  Burlington fell just two degrees short of the record on Wednesday. 

These warm September days have capped a year that has featured plenty of warm days. 

Through Wednesday Burlington has had 82 days this year in which temperatures have gotten to at least 80 degrees. I could only find two other years with more. 2018 had 83 such days, and 2016 had 85.

Wednesday was also the ninth consecutive day without a drop of rain in Burlington.  The last time we had a stretch of rainless weather longer than this was from September 20 through October 5, last year in 2023. The tail end of last autumn's dry spell culminated in the hottest day on record for the entire month of October, with a high of 86 on October 4. 

This dry spell, if it maintains itself, doesn't look like it will end in a record heat wave like last year. Instead, we've got a cooling trend coming  .

A weak "wrong way" cold is coming in from the northeast to cool us off starting later Friday.  High pressure building in from the northeast, plus a storm far offshore, will set up a dry, but easterly wind flow over New England. 

That will keep temperatures starting Saturday into next week at merely near normal levels (Highs near 70 in Vermont, lows mostly in the 45-52 degree range).

This type of blocked up weather pattern tends not to break down particularly fast, so it's hard to say when it will rain again.  We might squeeze out a couple widely scattered light showers with the cold front Friday, and lingering sprinkles could adorn some higher elevations Saturday. 

But any real rain should hold off until at least next Tuesday, or sometime beyond that. 

Just A Couple Small Hiccups In Very Long Vermont Dry, Sunny Spell

A blue sky morning today in St. Albans, Vermont. Get
used to it, as it will last much of the month. Although
every once in awhile a few clouds or wildfire smoke
and haze could intrude. 

Vermont's long stretch of warm, fair weather is just beginning now, and all the forecasts indicate this will stick around for a long time.  

September so far in the Green Mountain State has turned out to be a little on the cool side. 

Through yesterday, the month was running about three degrees cooler than the "new normal" in Burlington. That "new normal" is warmer than decades ago, so by historical standards, the first week of the month was pretty average.

That will change. 

Starting this afternoon, temperatures will start to run warmer than average for this time of year. Those temperatures will stay above normal for probably at least the next ten days, probably more. Quite possibly through the end of the month, in fact.

Despite the cool start, September, 2024 in Vermont will go down as yet another warm one. 

If you like warm, dry weather, this will be your month. But as always, there's a few hiccups thrown in. 

Hints of Humidity

 The humidity has been incredibly comfortable the past couple days. In fact, dew points - a rough measure of how humid it feels out there - hit the rock bottom 30s on Tuesday. 

It usually starts to feel a bit sticky when the dew point reaches 60 or so. It does seem like we will have more of a humid feel to the air starting tomorrow and lasting who knows how long. An ultra-weak system from Canada might temporarily drop the humidity to comfortable levels over the weekend, but those hints of mugginess should return next week.

This won't be super oppressive. Those dew points should rise into the low to mid 60s, enough to make it feel like summer. The humidity will also keep most nights somewhat on the warm. I guess it's a little soon to take down the window air conditioner. 

Fog and Sunshine Interruptions

Despite the remarkable strength and staying power of high pressure parking itself nearly overhead for days on end, tiny little disturbance should make inroads from time to time.  You might see somewhat cloudy periods here and there. One such little thing will come through tonight and part of tomorrow, which will interrupt the sun at times. Perhaps an isolated spot could even see a couple raindrops. But that's it. 

Much more importantly, this type of calm, mostly clear high pressure is a recipe for dense morning fog, especially this time of year. 

As the nighttime air cools, warm ground and water helps moisture condense into fog, especially in the valleys. Early morning commuters will need to be careful most mornings. Probably for the rest of the month at least. 

Wildfire Smoke

Record heat in the West as greatly intensified wildfires across California, Nevada and other states. Some of that smoke aloft will drift our way, so skies could become hazy at times once again. The amount of smoke in the air will wax and wane over the coming week or two. However, most of it will be aloft, and not so much near the surface. So, knock on wood, air quality will remain OK down here where we breathe. 

Tropical Storm Shield

This big, fat, stuck high pressure over New England and southeast Canada will deflect any tropical storms,  hurricanes or former tropical storms away from us during the next couple weeks. Hurricane Francine, set to slam into the Louisiana coast this morning, will at first head northeastward once it comes inland.

Often, that would eventually mean a good rainstorm for us. In this case, though, the remnants of Francine will smack into the high pressure and get trapped in or near Arkansas and die. No problem for us. 

There are some signs some sort of subtropical storm or tropical storm might form off the Southeast coast next week.  Some forecasts have it heading inland into the Carolinas.  Again, though, early indications are the high pressure will hold firm, keeping that potential system away from us. 

So bottom line, enjoy!

Warm Vermont Day Continues 2024 Trend That Could Exceed Last Year As Hottest

Our flowering hibiscus tree along with the tropical
orange trees, calla lilies and agapanthus not pictured
here, continue to thrive in late summer warmth
on our St. Albans, Vermont deck. The year is
on pace so far to be the warmest on record.

 It made it to 81 degrees in Burlington, Vermont Thursday as we enjoyed another blue sky, wall to wall sunshine September day. 

Although that reading wasn't odd for the opening week of September, it did continue a trend. We're having a hot year. 

Thursday was the 77th day this year in Burlington in which the temperature reached at least 80 degrees. The only other years I could find with more such days were all recent - 81 days in the 80s during 2020, 83 days in the 80s in 2018 and 85 days in the 80s in 2016.

Although I kind of doubt we'll break that record for most 80s in a single year back in 2016,  It's still possible.We do have a shot at making it to 80 degrees today. And some forecasts get us that warm toward the middle and end of next week.

Though the chances of any given day making it to 80 will being falling steeply as we head through autumn, such warmth is possible into October. The latest 80 degree day on record was October 25. 1963.  And who knows? With climate change, we will probably one day break that latest 80 record. We came close in 2022 when it was 78 degrees on October 26.

Year to date so far during 2023 in Burlington is also the hottest on record. I don't know whether the entire year will exceed last year as the city's hottest year on record. It all depends on whether if the warm trend of 2024 continues through December. 

Long range forecasts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, for what they're worth, continue to indicate a warmer than average temperatures more often than not through December.  

Still, there's an excellent chance 2024 will be among the top ten warmest years. Due to ties, there are 13 years in Burlington's top ten warmest. If this year joins the top ten list, that means all of Burlington's warmest years will be since1998.  Which isn't that long ago, considering the temperature records go back to the 1880s. 

Also, the top six warmest years in Burlington have all happened since 2012. 

Colder than normal weather is still always possible.  We'll see the occasional chilly month or season from time to time.

It's the roll of the dice. But the dice are now loaded by climate change, so the odds now always favor warmer weather than the type we had in the 20th century. 

As I always keep saying, this isn't your grandfather's climate. 

This Will Probably Be the Best Vermont Summer Weather Weekend Of The Summer

The table is set for probably the best weather weekend
of this summer in Vermont. 

UPDATE 6 PM FRIDAY

Today worked out just about as expected in what I wrote this morning. There's a bit more wildfire smoke in the air than I thought there'd be. 

Still not much, but enough to make the 

are quality go from good to just moderate at times. 

This might be the state of affairs all weekend. Other than that, the forecast I outlined below for Saturday and Sunday hasn't changed much at all from what I wrote below.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 For Vermont summer weather enthusiasts, and for tourists who picked this weekend to come to the Green Mountain State, this is your weekend.  

It'll have everything you need: A lot of sunshine, some comfortable nights, a warm but temperate Saturday and a fairly hot Sunday - perfect for a visit to the beach.

In other words we're in for a respite from the storms, downpours and humidity that always seemed to hang over our heads. Or at least threaten to.  

The cold front that came through Thursday had a little more oomph than I thought it might. By late afternoon, temperatures in the northern half of the state had fallen into the low 70s. It actually felt genuinely cool out there, something I haven't experienced in awhile. 

This morning, we're starting off with temperatures within a couple degrees of 60. The humidity is low, the air is fresh. 

Which sets the tone for the weekend. 

We'll almost have wall to wall sunshine today through Sunday.  The sky will occasionally be dotted with some fair well cumulus clouds during the days. Mostly for decoration and to grace the Instagram photos you'll be taking. Or something like that. 

The sky could also have a hazy quality to it at times, thanks to worsening wildfires in western Canada and the western United States. Any smoke will remain aloft, so air quality should stay pretty safe.

Being the pessimist the I can be, I'm looking for some other potential problems that'll interfere with this great weather. I'm coming up almost empty.  A weak disturbance might set off an isolated light shower in the Northeast Kingdom this afternoon. Any showers will come and go in a flash. But without lightning flashes. No thunderstorms today. 

I wonder if a tiny, weak upper level disturbance moving inland from the New England coast could throw clouds our way to an extent Sunday. But right now the air looks too dry, and the lame disturbance too weak and too far east to create any unexpected overcast. 

Temperatures will be on an uphill climb between today and Sunday. It should get to near 80 today with low humidity. Which means today is your best bet for exertion, like hiking to the summit of Camels Hump or something like that. 

After another comfortable night, Saturday gets  little warmer, sneaking up into the low 80s. Sunday is your beach day with temperatures in many areas getting into the upper 80s.  Traditional banana belt towns in parts of the Champlain Valley could flirt with 90.  Humidity on Sunday will be reasonable, though. 

BACK TO THE GRIND

Once we get into the new work week after our fun weekend, it's back to the grind. Both for work and the kind of weather we'll have.

It'll be back to daily warmth, humidity and thunderstorm and downpour risks. At this stage of the game, Monday looks like it should stay rain-free for the vast majority of us.  It'll be well into the 80s to maybe near 90 again, and you'll notice the humidity creeping up on us. 

Then, for the rest often week, the Bermuda High will keep pumping very warm, humid air our way, while weak, slow moving disturbances pushing in will bring us daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. 

It's impossible to tease out which days will be the stormiest, but in general, most of the lightning and downpours should come in the afternoons and evenings.

Our sunny weekend will help soils dry out, so that might limit flash flood risks in the downpours, unless they persist for days. 

One cautionary tale comes from the long range forecasts. 

If the six to 10 day and 8 to 14 day outlooks are correct - and there's absolutely no guarantee of that - then we could be in for some volatile weather in the opening days of August. 

The forecast hot temperatures and above normal rainfall - if they actually happen - imply humidity and the atmospheric sparks that could trigger torrential rains and possibly severe storms or even renewed localized flash floods.   That's something that Vermont can live without after what has so far been a rather hot and stormy summer. 

June Was Another Very Warm Month In Vermont. Definitely A Trend Here

An intense thunderstorm in Hinesburg, Vermont on 
June 23. The storm carried a tornado warning, but
none touched down in this case. Frequent bouts
of heat and humidity encouraged storms
in the Green Mountain state during June. 

 In another month that showed that this isn't your grandfather's Vermont climate, June turned out to be among the warmest on record in much of of the state.  

Burlington had its seventh warmest June with a mean temperature of 70.3.  Montpelier scored its ninth warmest June with an average of 65.1 degrees.

June is the third month this year that scored in the top 10 warmest on record in Burlington.  

Months in any given locality usually yo-yo between being on the cool or warm side. In Burlington, at least, the last time we had a somewhat cooler than average month was November,

Note that by average, I mean the "new normal." A normal month is the average for all of them between 1990 and 2020,  That period was warmer than the long term average from the 20th century, due to the effects of climate change. 

While most days were on the warm side in June, the event that really helped push the month into the top ten warm list was a heat wave from June 18-20.  Temperatures got well into the 90s through most of the state. Burlington tied its all time record for highest minimum temperature for any date on June 19, when the "low" temperature only reached 80 degrees. 

Overall, though, the warmth was pretty consistent. Eighteen days made it to at least 80 degrees in Burlington. I could only find nine Junes in Burlington in the past 130 years that had as many or more days that reached 80 degrees.

As is typical of summer months, rainfall was pretty variable around Vermont. Along and north of Route 2 it was on the wet side. Central and parts of southern Vermont were dry, but areas near the Massachusetts border were wetter again. 

A picturesque thunderstorm near Sheldon, Vermont
on June 9. This storm produced a brief, harmless
"cold air funnel" over nearby St. Albans. It 
was caused by the interaction of warm humid
air at the surface and cold air aloft. This was
not something that would actually produce a tornado.

Burlington and St. Johnsbury each had well over five inches of rain for the month, which is more than an inch on the wet side. Rutland, meanwhile, was an inch on the dry side with only 3.15 inches of rain. 

Because of the frequent availability of heat and humidity, severe weather made occasional visits to the Green Mountain State.

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington said there were six days in June in the region with reports of damage from severe thunderstorms 

The worst of it came on June 23, when flash flooding caused a lot of damage in the north-central Green Mountains, especially around Stowe, Worcester and Elmore.  The cleanup is still ongoing in many of these areas.

There was also a tornado watch and three tornado warnings that day. But the rotating storms managed to produce wall clouds and a couple reports of funnels, but no actual tornadoes in the Green Mountain State. There was a tornado in southwestern New Hampshire, not that far from the Vermont border.

That swath with the heaviest rain had a months total of between six and nine inches, which is a lot. Meanwhile, the U.S. Drought Monitor is rating much of south central and southeastern Vermont as abnormally dry.

Looking ahead to July, the early read on it suggests more warmth. Today will actually be a little on the cool side for the season, but that should change to a slightly toastier string of days starting Wednesday. Long range forecasts, though not always accurate, do fairly strongly suggest mostly warmer than average days through mid-month.