Storm Departs, Cold Air Arrives; Here In Vermont 60s To Snow In Three Hours

It looked nice enough out my window this morning, but
it was very blustery and cold. Traditional March winds
are back and they sure aren't warm. 

 For the second time in a week, today's a day in Vermont that on paper looks like it was a nice spring day. However, it was   anything but. 

Much like last Thursday, some parts of the Green Mountain State were in the 60s just after midnight this morning. That sure as hell didn't last long.

In Burlington it was 65 degrees at 1 a.mo So mid-60s will be the high temperature for today.. An hour later, it was 40 degrees. It's was snowing a little by 4 a.m. 

The only thing that hasn't changed is the wind speed.  A wind advisory still exists until 11 a.m. today for gusts out of the west as high as 50 mph. 

Nearly 12,000 Vermont homes and businesses were without power at around 4 a.m., mostly due to the initial, stronger surges of wind with the cold front. As of 8 a.m., the number of those outages has been halved, so we're making progress. 

TODAY/TOMORROW

We've got a couple of really cold days for this time of year coming up. And we have no return to spring weather in the forecast - at least not for the next week to 10 days. Sorry to be such a gloomy Gus, but there you go. It's March in Vermont. Deal with it. 

It was still near 32 degrees across Vermont as of around 8 a.m. But those temperatures will stay steady or even slowly fall as we go through the day.  Those of us who got a thin scrim of snow from the cold front will get very little additional snow. However, some snow showers will roam the state, especially in the Green Mountains for the rest of today. 

Tonight, lows will drop to the upper single numbers to low teens, making it the coldest night since March. This is nowhere near record cold, but it's a chilly slap on the fast. 

Tomorrow won't be any warmer, but at least it won't be so windy. And it will be sunny.  A sunny 30-degree day in March feels better than a sunny 30-degree day at the end of December. A higher sun angle makes things feel a lot better.

The rest of the week into next week appears to be unsettled and chilly. We'll have a persistent northwest flow, with cooler than normal air and weak disturbances coming through pretty much every other ray with light rain an snow showers. 

This is the pattern we endured in much of the winter. We just can't seem to shake it for any longer than a week or so. I have no idea when it will end. At least normal temperatures are rising fast now, so it's getting harder and harder to get really cold.

Since we're getting into the second half of March, most days in this regime will get into the 30s to low 40s. That's better than the teens and low 20s for highs we had so often during the winter.

And someday, spring will get here.

Monday Vermont Evening Weather Update: Those Expected BIG Changes Coming Overnight

A have one patch of a really early variety of daffodil, so
I was happy to see this in today's warmth. (My other
daffodils are barely nubs emerging from the earth)
It's going to be awhile before all these grow further
as tonight's cold front will snap us back to reality. 

 I hope you enjoyed our incredibly brief warm spell today in Vermont because the cold front that will end it all is on our doorstep.

It was actually quite nice this afternoon as the wind died down, as expected and temperatures rose into the upper 50s.  We might not end up quite as warm as forecast, but 58 or so is still really nice for this time of year.

As winds increase this evening, some places will temporarily warm up even more.  Burlington went from 56 to 66 degrees between 6 and 7 p.m. as south winds started blowing there. 

As the front approaches this evening, winds will probably pick up again.   Some showers that were moving into Vermont as of 5:30 p.m. might limit the winds a little bit. But don't necessarily count on that. 

A wind advisory is still in effect for Vermont, and that has been extended to through 11 a.m Tuesday. More on why the advisory stays in effect for part of tomorrow further down a bit. A high wind warning remains in effect for a good chunk of northern New York. 

The rain should be showery, off and on for the next few hours. It'll briefly rain hard in many places when the front comes through later tonight.  This morning we said that should not be enough to cause flooding and that's still the case. So a bit of good news there. 

The actual cold front seems to be temporarily slowing down somewhat on approach to Vermont. Some of the computer models don't actually bring it into western Vermont until a little before midnight.  

The front will still be super noticeable when it comes through tonight for anyone who is still up. The temperature over in Syracuse, New York went from 66 to 46 degrees with an hour earlier this afternoon

In Vermont you'll wake up a completely different world than today's. Temperatures will be down to around 30, give or take. There might be a dusting of snow on the ground and the puddles will all be frozen. A cold west wind will be screaming with gust to 50 mph. Which is why that wind advisory is still in effect tomorrow. 

Expect a few scattered power outages between now and noon tomorrow. 

The winds will begin to slow down a little in the afternoon, but it'll still be blustery as hell. And actual temperatures will remain below freezing all day. Wednesday will also stay at or below freezing for most of us, but the wind should be lighter. 

It'll warm up a tiny bit for the end of the week, but it will be quite awhile before we see any balmy weather again. 

Storms In Hawaii Cause Widespread Flooding, Other Havoc. Worst In Years

Torrential rains in Hawaii made this house
slide down into a raging river as a 
long lasting, severe storm rakes the
islands. Photo via Facebook, 
Dillon Mitchell 

A week long storm is easing - but not quite done - as Hawaii once again reels from widespread flooding, wind damage and landslides. This storm was the worst in a series. 

As Forbes reports:

"Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency as the week-long onslaught of rainfall, landslides and infrastructure damage continued into the weekend."

Forbes continued: 

"'Maui got it even worse and locals describe that the whole island feels like it is underwater,; wrote his Dodds in Surfer. He continued: 'The steep slopes around Haleakala turned into walls of mud, rock and debris moving at terrifying speed. Some are calling it the worst rainstorm in the island's modern history.'"

Rainfall amounts were incredible. A site in Maui recorded a five-day total of 44.37 inches of rain. Other sites on Maui had 25 to 35 inches of rain over those five days. 

On the big island of Hawaii, Mauna Loa had 25.45 inches of rain in five days with other sites on the Big Island coming in with over 20 inches. A few locations on Kauai and Oahu reported nearly 20 inches of rain over that five-day period. 

Those rainfall amounts were even greater than forecasts, which were themselves ominous. 

On Maui, roads became rivers, with vehicles floating in them like leaves in a stream. In one neighborhood, a large storage container joined the vehicles that had floated downstream. Tourists could not cross the rushing water on the streets to make it back to their condos. It was too dangerous. 

 Power outages have kept coming in recent days even as crews have worked in the storms to restore power. More than 120,000 Hawaiian homes and businesses were without power Friday. That number was at around 114,000 on Saturday. 

More than 100,000 Hawaiians were without power Saturday. 

The Hawaii Department of Transportation reported parts of numerous roads closed due to the heavy rain and flooding

In Waikiki, news video showed high winds and sheets of heavy rain, making the streets look like they were enduring an approaching hurricane. Streets and sidewalks were louder water. In a luxury shopping district, an enormous tree collapsed in the storm, blocking most lanes of a wide, busy avenue. 

Nearly an hours's drive from Waikiki on Oahu's North Shore, things were even worse. Major roads, fields,s, and even a major beach access were under muddy water because of the relentless rain 

Video from Maui showed a house collapsing into a swollen river. Sections of roads have collapsed, some taking cars and SUVs with them.  

On the Big Island, Kilauea volcano complicated things further. Just before the storm, an eruption created a rain of tephra (chunks of lightweight lava, debris and ash) on areas surround the volcano. That's the second time this winter such an event happened, and this one was more extensive than a tephra fall back in January.  In some places six inches of tephra accumulated.

Cleaning up that mess was complicated by the heavy rains. And I imagine the tephra clogged ditches and brooks somewhat, which would exacerbate flooding. 

If this post sounds kind of familiar, it's because we reported on another destructive storm back on  February 11.  It's been an incredibly rainy, windy winter in Hawaii

As I earlier noted, the storm over the past few days far outdid and out-damaged all the other previous storms this winter.   

Some of the storm's origins came from as far as the southwestern United States. The building heat wave and strong dry high pressure is causing a blockage in the atmosphere, allowing a train of storms to blast through the Hawaiian Islands. 

The principal storm was know as a Kona Low, which frequently occur in Hawaii during the winter. Usually winds in Hawaii blow from the east. A Kona Low forms when winds shift to the west or southwest, bringing much more humid air from the tropics. 

Because of the usual trade winds, the wettest parts of Hawaii are on the north and east side of the islands. South and west sides are actually pretty dry. The Kona storms, with their high humidity and southwest winds, can drown the the drier parts of the island. 

The storm is easing as to today. Instead of wet southwest winds, or the usual east to northeast trade winds, the breezes are slackening to near calm. That'll keep showers going all week across the islands. There's the risk of yet another Kona storm towar

 

Storm Blasting East; Severe Weather Threat Continues. Up In Vermont, Windy, Warm, Then A Crash

A lightning strike map from Sunday of the
 powerful\storm's squall line. Notice how
long it is, stretching from Chicago to
Houston. The squall line will enter
 the East today with severe storms
Other severe storms and tornadoes
are likely to form out ahead of the line. 

The United States is  dealing with yet another huge storm that will probably be yet another that causes at least $1 billion in damage. 

It's covering such a wide area- from the Plains to the East Coast - that collectively it's causing plenty of damage. 

This storm is hitting us here in Vermont too, but thankfully not as destructively. More on how this is and will affect the Green Mountain State further down in this post. 

Blizzards are leaving what is expected to be up to three feet of snow in the Upper Midwest  An ice storm is wreaking havoc in northern Michigan.

Worst of all, the storm's powerful cold front, as expected, generated a squall line that is causing tremendous wind damage along its path. 

 The National Weather Service collected at least 430 reports of thunderstorm wind damage on Sunday from this squall line. Judging from some damage photos, including one from Rector, Arkansas, there were likely a few embedded tornadoes. 

National Weather Service investigators will sort out which damage was caused by straight line winds, and which damage was associated with tornadoes. 

Even away from the squall line, just general high winds with the strong storm caused power outages, felled trees and damaged buildings. For instance, the roof blew off a building in Jamestown, in western New York. 

Roughly 535,000 homes and businesses in the United States were without power due to the storm as of this morning. The worst was in Michigan, with about 125,000 outages. That was due to heavy freezing rain in northern parts of the state, and a blizzard in the Upper Peninsula. 

Major roads remained closed this morning including two interstate highways in southern Minnesota.  

TODAY

The actions shifts east today, with the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coasts most in the crosshairs today. Severe storms with damaging winds are possible all the way from northern New York to the southern tip of Florida,

But the main area of worry extends from southeast Pennsylvania to coastal Georgia. A roughly 150 mile wide band from Maryland to northern South Carolina is under an even higher alert - level four out of five in the National Weather Service's danger scale. 

Strong thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of the cold front in the Mid-Atlantic States. Strong winds, changing direction with height, can cause these storms to spin. That, in turn, could spawn tornadoes. 

Then the main cold front will arrive with its own batch of storms with high winds. If you know anybody in the Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast, make sure then know to listen for weather warnings are are ready to take shelter at the drop of a hat. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The wind in parts of Vermont is cranking from the south this  morning, especially in the Champlain Valley.

The wind will be the main story Vermont's experience with this storm. A wind advisory is in effect for the entire state. A high wind warning is up for chunks of northern New York, including much of the Adirondacks. Saranac Lake, New York already had a gust to 65 mph overnight. 

The winds might tend to die down a little late this morning and early this afternoon. I'm already noticing this here in St. Albans as of 9 a.m. It'll still be windy, just not as bad.

This afternoon, just ahead of our sharp, strong cold front, winds will ramp up again, especially in the Champlain Valley. That's when the air will be warmest, and winds a few thousand feet overhead will be strongest. The warm air will allow more mixing in the atmosphere, helping to draw down some stronger gusts from above. 

Areas outside the Champlain Valley will also notice increased winds, but it won't be quite as bad.

Temperatures across Vermont were in the 30s and 40s as of 9 a.m. We still expect highs in the low 60, maybe mid 60s in a few places. Those high temperatures will actually probably come in the early evening just before the front arrives.

When that cold front does get here, you'll know it!  For most of us, it will come with a big but brief gush of rain, strong winds quickly shifting to the west. Temperatures will fall just as rapidly. 

Between today's winds and whatever comes along with the cold front, expect some scattered power outages and tree damage here and there. This won't be the most ferocious Vermont wind storm ever, but it will be on the noticeable side. 

Rainfall will be between a half inch and perhaps three quarters of an inch. That'll be enough to get rivers rising again, but not enough for them to break their banks. 

By dawn, many of us will be below freeing again. And it probably won't get above freezing all day. Winds will also stay gusty from the west and northwest. We might need another wind advisory east of the Green Mountains where gusts should be a little stronger on Tuesday. 

No wild weather events are scheduled for the rest of the week after this goes by, so I'll leave forecasts of  the coming days for another, later post.  

Wild Storm Creating Midwest Blizzard, Big Severe Weather Outbreak; Vermont To See Wind, Rain, Snow, Temperature Weirdness

The National Weather Service website home page
is getting colorful with lots of weather warnings
due to a wild, strengthening storm. This map
should get even more colorful later today
through tomorrow with a variety of
dangerous weather expected.

The big storm in the middle of the nation is underway, with widespread blizzard conditions in the upper Midwest. Worse, the storm is set to cause a huge severe weather outbreak over a wide area from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.  

The storm is still likely to give those of us in Vermont, and surrounding states, a bunch of wind, rain and wildly fluctuating temperatures. More on that in a bit, but first the big picture of the storm. 

BLIZZARD

A huge area encompassing the eastern half of South Dakota, the southern half of Minnesota, most of Iowa and Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan are under a blizzard warning. 

They're already calling it a historic storm, as some places in Minnesota might get over two feet of snow. A enormous patch of real estate across the upper Midwest is expecting at least a foot.  Up in northeastern Wisconsin and the UP of Michigan, up to three feet of snow might come down. A few forecasts I've seen call for up to four feet in spots in the UP.

All this is either getting propelled or about to be propelled by gusts that will exceed 50 mph, maybe making it to 60 mph in a few spot. 

South of the blizzard zone, high winds are raking he Plains from Nebraska down through Texas. Wildfires have been plaguing that region in recent weeks due to drought and strong winds. Today is just going to make matters worse there, especially in Texas and New Mexico. 

SEVERE WEATHER

The biggest threat from this storm is severe weather and tornadoes over a wide area. I keep saying "wide" or "enormous" areas, but this storm is so powerful its influence is being felt practically everywhere.

The storm's intense cold front will create a derecho-type situation with widespread strong wind. Some tornadoes might be embedded in this squall line. And a few supercell thunderstorms might form ahead of the cold front to also create a few tornadoes. 

The Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley and the Ohio Valley look to be under the greatest threat today. 

Tomorrow looks like things might get even worse. The action Monday will be along the East Coast from southern New York to Florida. A zone from Maryland to South Carolina is under a moderate risk of severe weather, the second highest of five alert levels. 

Ahead of the cold front, supercells look to develop in the Carolinas and southern Virginia, with the risk of strong tornadoes.

Then the actual cold front slams in, with a very windy line of thunderstorms.  Widespread straight line wind damage looks to be the primary threat from this line of storms, but there could be a few tornadoes embedded with that line of rough weather.  

VERMONT EFFECTS

Though we won't have anything as dramatic as three-foot-deep blizzards or strong tornadoes, the weather is going to put on a bit of a show locally.  

Unlike in similar storms, the warm front coming through tonight won't have much moisture to work with. There might be bits of snow, sleet or rain later this afternoon and evening in spots, but nothing substantial. Also, some of the sheltered valleys of eastern Vermont might see a little freezing drizzle through early tomorrow morning 

The winds will really pick up overnight and Monday. The worst winds tomorrow should be over the northern Adirondacks over in New York, where gusts could reach 60 mph or so.

A wind advisory is up later tonight and through tomorrow in the Champlain Valley with hang on to your hat gusts to 45 or even 55 mph in spots. It'll be windy in the rest of Vermont. But so far, not quite windy enough to trigger a wind advisory. 

Temperatures will warm overnight in the Champlain Valley and that will spread into the rest of the state during the day. Highs should get to near 60 degrees by afternoon. 

I'm not going to get into specifics on when some showers might race through from time to time tomorrow, Just know they might happen, pretty much whenever, But parts of the day will be dry. So enjoy that warmth!

It'll be that cold front which is will be causing so much trouble elsewhere that will really make us take notice. It'll blast through in the evening with gusts of wind, brief torrential downpours, maybe a rumble or two of thunder. 

The rain shouldn't last long enough to create any real flooding problems. Just some rises on area rivers. The usual March rainy weather drill. 

After that, temperatures will crash and fast. By the time you get up Tuesday morning, all that water will have frozen. Many of us will have a little snow on the ground. Winds will crank from the northwest, so we might need another wind advisory for Tuesday. 

Temperatures probably won't get above freezing Tuesday. Maybe the same for Wednesday, too, But it'll get a tad warmer by the end of the week with seasonable March weather.  

Storm Chasers Injured In Crash; Other Chases More Dangerous Than Tornadoes.

An overturned KFOR storm chase vehicle last week
in Oklahoma after being hit by another storm
chaser that blew through a stop sign

You'd think the biggest danger to all those storm chasers hunting tornadoes in the spring and early summer are the twisters themselves. 

It turns out the greater danger is other chasers.

We're getting into storm chasing season, where hordes of people take to the open roads of the Plains, Midwest and South to study, photograph and video tornadoes for fun and profit.

And sometimes science, but mostly for fun and profit. The peak of tornado and twister chasing season is April, May and June. 

The fatigue of driving long distances to find tornadoes, and the act of staring at the storm instead of the road makes chasing tornadoes scarier than the actually twister.

We've already had an example of this. Last week when two storm chasers for KFOR, now as the 4Warn Storm Team were injured when an amateur storm chaser reported blew through a stop sign and hit the KFOR vehicle. 

The KFOR chasers, Connor Tune and Blaze Edwards were treated at a local hospital and released later that night.  .

The driver of the car allegedly ran the stop sign was also injured and held at a hospital overnight for observations but had been expected to be released from a hospital the next dah. 

The two 4Warn Storm Team chasers are experienced, having chased storms since 2009.

Some storm chasers have died in traffic accidents. In 2022, four storm chasers died in vehicle crashes within two weeks.

"Nature isn't the only threat. Storm chasers spend long hours on the road traveling from state to state like long-haul truckers, inviting fatigue. When they catch up to the storms, they can often keep their eyes on the skies instead of the road, sometimes with deadly consequences," CBS reported at the time of the 2022 deaths.

In 2017 three people died in Texas when two vehicles containing storm chasers collided, Two died in one vehicle a third died in the other vehicle. The three had been chasing a tornado at the time. 

If anything, storm chasers are now more distracted as the drive toward storms. Unlike a decade or two ago, chasers now have computer screens in their vehicles they consult for up date weather information. If you get a tired guy looking at the sky and his computer screen, there's not much bandwidth left in his brain to pay attention to the road.

Most people advise two people in each storm chase vehicle. One to monitor the radar screen and the clouds outside, the other to concentrate on driving. 

Another thing I've long been worried about is storm chase traffic jams. Storm chasing has really taken off in popularity. The ability to forecast particularly impressive or photogenic tornadoes and storms has also increased. 

That has resulted in sometimes hundreds of chasers convening on one narrow road. That's fine if the tornado continues going on its projected path. But what if it suddenly switches gears and heads toward all those people on the road.

If it were just a couple of cars, the chasers could just scoot back into their vehicle and race away. But dozens of vehicles create a traffic jam that would slow things down so much that the tornado would hit the collection of scrambling storm chasers. The results could be very deadly. 

 

 

 

 

Saturday Morning In Vermont: Snow Showers Harass, Then Much Bigger, Windy Storm Looms

There wasn't much snow in most places across Vermont last
night, along Route 108 in Stowe, it looks like a few
inches accumulated and it was still snowing as of 9:40 a.m

From what I can tell, snowfall across most of Vermont was pretty paltry overnight. 

It looks like the Champlain Valley got next to nothing. There was a trace in Burlington and here in St. Albans we received 0.2 inches.  

I'm on my fainting couch now wondering how I can possibly dig out from that! Oh, never mind, the sun peeking through the clouds is taking care of that. 

The fainting couch is just some PTSD, the Pi Day Blizzard of 2017 was just wrapping up on this date. On that occasion, I had 30 inches of snow to shovel. 

Anyway, no repeat of the Pi Day Blizzard seems to be looming. Traffic camera images suggest a lot of places outside the Champlain Valley did manage an inch or two. Some of the higher elevations look like they probably got more.

Snow will continue to harass us the rest of today, but don't worry, we'll survive. The mountains will probably pick up an additional couple inches. Some of the snow showers might increase in intensity for awhile this afternoon and evening over the central and  northern Green Mountains and in the Northeast Kingdom.

BIG STORM

The major story is the enormous windbag of a storm developing in the middle of the U.S. Some of the worst impacts will be in upper Midwest In Minnesota and Wisconsin, where up to two feet of snow might fall with this thing.  

The storm's powerful cold front will trigger severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, South and eventually the East Coast south of New England. There will probably be some tornadoes in the mix, but the main threat from the thunderstorms along the cold front will be widespread damaging winds.

For us in Vermont, we get to enjoy strong winds, a brief spurt of very warm air for this time of year and a quick blast of rain.

Strong south winds will begin to blow overnight Sunday and continue through most of the day Monday ahead of the storm's solid cold front. Meteorologists are still trying to get a handle on how windy it will get and where the worst gusts will blast.

How strong the winds get depends in part on whether a large batch of rain comes through during the day Monday. That might happen, or the precipitation might hold off until the big cold front hits in the evening. I imagine the National Weather Service might eventually issue some wind advisories or even possibly high wind warnings for Monday. We shall see!

We'll get more clarity on those winds tomorrow and we will forward that along.

Temperatures should get into the low 60s amid the gusty south winds on Monday. Those won't be record highs because Monday is the anniversary of a crazy 1990 hot spell that brought temperatures to 78 degrees in Burlington. 

We should get some pretty good downpours just ahead and along the cold front Monday evening.  Fortunately,  most of the ice has been flushed out of the rivers so we're good there. At this point, I'd say we're at risk for minor flooding here and there. 

It will turn sharply colder overnight Monday and all that water will freeze up.  We can expect some snow showers, too, but they won't amount to much. Tuesday looks quite windy and cold as the storm moves off into Canada.