Wow, we almost got up to normal in Vermont temperatures in Burlington yesterday. The average temperature was 20 degrees, which was just half a degree below normal. We haven't had a warmer than average day since January 23.
As of today, we've had 15 consecutive days in Burlington that never got above freezing. That's nowhere near our longest stretch on record, which was 51 days from December 22, 1976 to February 11 1977,
We're not even that close to getting into the top 10 list for consecutive subfreezing days which is 29 days, set on four different occasions must recently from January 5 to February 3, 2004.
Even so, we've got quite a few days to go without any thawing, and there will be a brutal Arctic blast thrown in for good measure.
Today, as you have been able to tell, is nice. It's been in the 20s this afternoon, the sun is out, who can complain?
Satellite photos this afternoon still show a fairly large area of open water right in the middle of Lake Champlain but it still could freeze overnight. Ice forms best on the lake when it's at least near or a little below zero and there's calm winds. Wind would push the ice around and break it up. We're expecting exactly those conditions tonight.
We'll find out tomorrow whether the lake actually freezes or not. Friday will be another nice day with a fair amount of sun and temperatures getting back into the low and mid 20s. Still vaguely cooler than average for this time of year, but not bad.
BUT THEN........
Our long-advertised brutal Arctic cold front will bring one to three inches of light, fluffy snow, with a bit more in the mountains and maybe the far northern Champlain Valley late Friday night and Saturday morning. But that's not what we're worried about.
The air we're getting is coming is a straight shot from Siberia. It went up and over the North Pole and is blasting its way toward us in New England. Aren't we lucky?
The big temperature crash is coming a few hours later than we saw in earlier forecasts. Instead of hitting on Friday evening, the real plunge in temperatures won't come until a little before dawn on Saturday. High for the day will be in the teens in the hours just after midnight, so we won't have a rare day in which the high is below zero.
But don't you worry if you want an unbearably cold Saturday, we got ya! By mid to late morning Saturday and continuing through the afternoon, the temperature will head toward subzero readings.
Winds will gust past 30 mph. On top of the dangerously cold air out there, the fluffy snow that is on the ground now and is coming will blow around a lot.
Yuck! This might well be the cruelest cold we've had our winter.
Already, an extreme cold watch is in effect for wind chills as low as 35 below zero from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon. Extreme cold watches, along with winter weather and high wind alerts cover most of the northeastern United States as we all gear up for a rough weekend.
Parts of North Carolina had a little more snow last night, so they are once again dealing with icy patches there.
It's still unseasonably cold in Florida, and a freeze warning is up again for the northern part of the state tonight. However, most fortunately for them, the intense cold wave that's hitting the Northeast this weekend will not hit Florida much. No hard freezes are likely in Florida after tonight.
Back here in Vermont, the wind will die down slightly Saturday night to 10 to 20 mph hour, but the temperature will keep going down as well. By dawn, it will be in the upper single numbers to mid-teens below zero.
Sunday I supposed will be better, but that's not saying much. The wind should gradually get lighter. The sun will probably drive afternoon temperatures into the single digits above zero for a few hours. But it will be right back down well below zero Sunday night and Monday morning
The AWESOME news is this might be the last horrible Arctic spell for awhile. The weather pattern is changing just enough so that new blasts of Arctic air won't be nearly as intense next week and beyond.
That's not to say that this will be the last subzero cold of the winter. It can get below zero well into mid-March. But we are probably in for at least a semi-break.
It'll still be cold Monday and to a lesser extent Tuesday, with subzero mornings both days. But the second half of the week will at least be closer to normal.
We don't have a lot of details on the second half of next week because the computer models are all over the place on that one. Which means we also don't know when the next snow will come after whatever falls Friday night and Saturday. We'll probably have nothing until at least next Wednesday.
