Saturday Morning In Vermont: Snow Showers Harass, Then Much Bigger, Windy Storm Looms

There wasn't much snow in most places across Vermont last
night, along Route 108 in Stowe, it looks like a few
inches accumulated and it was still snowing as of 9:40 a.m

From what I can tell, snowfall across most of Vermont was pretty paltry overnight. 

It looks like the Champlain Valley got next to nothing. There was a trace in Burlington and here in St. Albans we received 0.2 inches.  

I'm on my fainting couch now wondering how I can possibly dig out from that! Oh, never mind, the sun peeking through the clouds is taking care of that. 

The fainting couch is just some PTSD, the Pi Day Blizzard of 2017 was just wrapping up on this date. On that occasion, I had 30 inches of snow to shovel. 

Anyway, no repeat of the Pi Day Blizzard seems to be looming. Traffic camera images suggest a lot of places outside the Champlain Valley did manage an inch or two. Some of the higher elevations look like they probably got more.

Snow will continue to harass us the rest of today, but don't worry, we'll survive. The mountains will probably pick up an additional couple inches. Some of the snow showers might increase in intensity for awhile this afternoon and evening over the central and  northern Green Mountains and in the Northeast Kingdom.

BIG STORM

The major story is the enormous windbag of a storm developing in the middle of the U.S. Some of the worst impacts will be in upper Midwest In Minnesota and Wisconsin, where up to two feet of snow might fall with this thing.  

The storm's powerful cold front will trigger severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, South and eventually the East Coast south of New England. There will probably be some tornadoes in the mix, but the main threat from the thunderstorms along the cold front will be widespread damaging winds.

For us in Vermont, we get to enjoy strong winds, a brief spurt of very warm air for this time of year and a quick blast of rain.

Strong south winds will begin to blow overnight Sunday and continue through most of the day Monday ahead of the storm's solid cold front. Meteorologists are still trying to get a handle on how windy it will get and where the worst gusts will blast.

How strong the winds get depends in part on whether a large batch of rain comes through during the day Monday. That might happen, or the precipitation might hold off until the big cold front hits in the evening. I imagine the National Weather Service might eventually issue some wind advisories or even possibly high wind warnings for Monday. We shall see!

We'll get more clarity on those winds tomorrow and we will forward that along.

Temperatures should get into the low 60s amid the gusty south winds on Monday. Those won't be record highs because Monday is the anniversary of a crazy 1990 hot spell that brought temperatures to 78 degrees in Burlington. 

We should get some pretty good downpours just ahead and along the cold front Monday evening.  Fortunately,  most of the ice has been flushed out of the rivers so we're good there. At this point, I'd say we're at risk for minor flooding here and there. 

It will turn sharply colder overnight Monday and all that water will freeze up.  We can expect some snow showers, too, but they won't amount to much. Tuesday looks quite windy and cold as the storm moves off into Canada.  

Florida Drought Has Water Supplies Drying Up ,Crops Wilting, Fires Burning

All of Florida is in a drought. The red shading represents
extreme drought. The dry weather is intensifying

We often think of Florida as humid and wet. But the Sunshine State has dry seasons, and this one is dangerously parched. 

Water restrictions are being put in place, farmers are fretting about crops and wildfires are harassing the state.

According to U.S. Drought Monitor, all of Florida is in drought. Northern and southern parts of the sate are in extreme drought while central Florida is in moderate to severe drought. 

The drought trend is worsening. Less than half of Florida was in extreme drought back in mid-February. Now, about three quarters of the state is in extreme drought. The drought is said to be the worst in a quarter century. 

Water conservation measures are ramping up. 

WGCU in southwest Florida reported:  

"The Southwest Florida Water Management District, which covers an eclectic area surrounding Tampa Bay, declared a "Modified Phase II 'Severe' Waters Shortage in January. '

That means lawn watering is down to one day a week in the district and only between midnight to 8 am or 6 p.m. to midnight.  

Then it got worse as rainfall kept falling short. 

Per Newsweek: 

"Critically low waters are "prompting Tampa Bay Water to issue an urgent call for conservation to help stretch supplies through the region's driest months. The utility says water from rivers typically provides more than 40 percent of the area's drinking water but ongoing drought had rendered those sources unusable. 

With temperatures rising and spring vegetation demands increasing, officials warm that without aggressive conservation, including limiting showers to find minutes, deeper restrictions could soon follow."

'We're heading into the driest months of the year when it only will get hotter and drier, so now is the time to save and get to those Florida summer rains, ' Tampa Bay Water public communications manager Brandon Moore told Newsweek."

March through May are usually the driest months of the year in Florida. The storm track moves north of Florida in the spring, so rains from passing fronts are less likely to affect the Sunshine State much. Once we get past Memorial Day or so, almost daily summer thunderstorms can help replenish low water. 

Farmers are struggling with the drought as the spring planting season gets under way. In addition to the drought, winter crops were decimated by repeated freezes. 

Wildfires have been harassing Florida, too. Extremely dry conditions are of course fueling them. But dead vegetation from the winter freezes isn't exactly helping. 

Some rain is headed toward Florida over the next week, but it won't be nearly enough to erase the drought. 

Friday Vermont Forecast. Some Snow Later Today Through Saturday; Large, Windy Storm Monday

We're back to the snowfall prediction maps from the 
National Weather Service. Through tomorrow,
the valleys should generally get about two inche
of snow, maybe a little less in spots, The Green
Mountains and southern Adirondacks, and
New Hampshire's White Mountains should
do great, with perhaps 4 to 7 inches. 

We watched the temperatures yesterday fall down through the 30s, and for many of us, it was below freezing by late afternoon or evening. 

This was nothing unusual for mid March, but it was a reality check after the record warm temperatures earlier in the week. 

Burlington did end up tying the record high for the date at 63 degrees yesterday. That came just after midnight very early in the day before a cold front arrived. 

Some of us got a dusting of snow last evening to remind us what time of year it is. We were still getting flurries here in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning. 

Ahead, we have one small storm first, and then one very large storm to deal with here in Vermont. Aside for a brief excursion into balmy weather Monday, it's going to be relatively wintry for awhile. 

I know, I know, but it's only March. Spring will get here eventually. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY/SATURDAY

We've got our small storm to deal with first. It's coming in from the west and will pester us from this afternoon through much of tomorrow. 

This one will be mostly snow. But the good news for those of you who are tired of snow is accumulations should be pretty limited in the valleys. The Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys should only see 0.5 to 2 inches. Even so, the wet snow could come briefly heavily this evening, so watch it on the roads. 

The mountains look to get much more, perhaps four to as many as eight inches. That will refresh ski resort slopes a bit after our huge thaw. There is a winter weather advisory from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon in the southern and central Green Mountains.  

High temperatures both today and tomorrow will be in the 30s, so not far from normal for this time of year. That means the snow will mostly be on the wet side. They call this kind of snow sugar snow under the belief it adds moisture for the maple trees to produce more sap.

We should also have gusty winds at time as this storm passes through. 

BIG STORM

NOAA forecast map for Monday shows a powerful
storm centered over Michigan. This storm will 
give us a quick squirt of warm air and rain
Monday, followed by sharply colder air
We should also have a lot of wind with this storm.

The next storm will stir up a huge amount of trouble in the eastern half of the nation.  It'll start developing in the central Plains Saturday night, get to about Iowa Saturday night and the heat up into the central Great Lakes, strengthening all the while. 

It'll be a powerhouse with widespread high winds from the eastern Rockies to the East Coast. The system cause another severe storm and tornado risk in the Midwest Sunday and in the southeast Monday. A blizzard will unfold north and west of the storm track.

For us in Vermont, the storm will mean a brief period of mixed precipitation, a lot of wind, a brief zoom of temperatures up to 60 degrees or so Monday, along with rain, then an abrupt, sharp drop in temperature down to winter levels again

If we have any mixed precipitation it would be fairly light and occur Sunday night, at least the way it looks now. South winds would really ramp up Sunday night, too.

That warm air will engulf us Monday, but be short-lived as a powerful cold front comes in from the west. We're unsure on the timing of that front, but early guesses place it in Vermont early Monday evening, give or take.

That would leave us with temperatures rapidly crashing to below freezing, a quick changeover to snow showers, and strong winds from the north.

As always, we'll update this one as we get closer to the event. 

Montreal, Quebec City Endured Ugly Ice Storm While Warm Thaw Continued South Of The Border

While rather warm temperatures continued Wednesday
south of the border, Montreal and other areas of 
Quebec endured a day and evening long ice storm.

While places south of the border were basking in relative warmth Wednesday, Quebec was enduring an ice storm. 

Temperatures remained solidly below freezing in Montreal as freezing rain fell all day into the night. 

Even toward midnight, when temperatures in northwestern Vermont soared into the low 60s, Montreal remained stubbornly at 30 degrees, or minus 1 Celsius.

The result in Quebec was widespread travel trouble, closed schools and businesses and power outages.  Among the schools closes were Concordia and McGill universities. 

As of around 9:15 a.m. Thursday more than 212,000 homes and businesses were still without power in Quebec. The number of outages was down to about 65,000 by 4 p.m. today. 

Dozens of flights were canceled in Montreal and Quebec City. 

A similar but worse ice storm hit in April 2023. While trees collapsed under the weight of ice and power flickered out throughout Montreal and other areas of Quebec, areas just south of the Canadian border had thunderstorms and temperatures in the 40s on that occasion. 

So that's twice in three years northern Vermont just barely dodged very, very icy bullets  

One Widespread, Ominous U.S. Heat Wave Fades, Another, Much Hotter One Threatens West

The western U.S. is gearing up for what is expected to
be never-before-seen March heat over the next
week to 10 days. This will exacerbate drought and
water shortages in the region. After record heat
in the East, it will cool down some. 

Temperatures are cooling down today in the Midwest and East after a remarkable March heat wave that set hundreds of new record highs from the Plains States all the way to the East Coast. 

Now, meteorologists are already talking about another heat wave set to begin in the western U.S. That heat wave might well be easily one of the most extreme out-of-season heat waves ever seen. 

More on that in a minute. 

Climate change has turned the normal "false springs" of thawing weather and warm early season sunshine. 

Already this year. much of the western United States had be far their warmest winter on record. Even in the colder eastern U.S., brief warm spells set records. 

Now, we had the heat this week. Hundreds of cities saw record highs broken, over roughly half the United States. The record heat extended over a remarkably large area, from Oklahoma and Texas, through the South and Midwest and along the entire East Coast. 

Temperatures reached to near 90 in the Southeast, with one report as far north as Virginia 

Several places broke records for warmest for so early in the season.  Those include New York City (80 degrees), Georgetown, Delaware, (83 degrees), Baltimore, Maryland (85 degrees) and Burlington, Vermont (73). 

Some records were broken by wide margins. Up in Millinocket, Maine, it got to 70 degrees, beating the old record high for the date of 54 degrees. 

The unseasonable warmth set the conditions for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms in the Midwest. Abrupt thawing in northern New York and in Vermont created ice jams on rivers which caused some flooding. 

The expansive heat wave of the past week has ensured this was the warmest start to March on record for the U.S. 

A shift in the weather pattern is now bringing cooler air into the eastern half of the U.S., but is setting the stage for a dangerous, way-before-its-time heat wave out west.

WESTERN HEAT 

The expected heat wave in the West will be even stronger and more dangerous than the one now ending in the East

Per the Washington Post:

"There are many potential firsts for March on the horizon: It could reach 100 degrees in Los Angeles next week, after record-breaking 95 degree heat on Thursday and Friday. 

In Phoenix next week, temperatures could exceed 100 degrees several times. It could also reach the century mark in Las Vegas."

Phoenix could actually reach 105 degrees next week, which looks plausible given the expected intensity of the heat dome. If that happens, not only would Phoenix break its record for hottest day in March, it would tie April's  hottest recorded temperatures. 

 Record highs for the entire month of March could fall in Salt Lake City, Denver, Reno and other western cities. It's fairly rare to break a monthly record. It's especially rare to set one in mid-March, as temperatures are obviously normally warmer at the end of the month. 

This is insane. 

The impending heat wave is raising alarms about drought and water shortages this summer. Much of the reason is already in drought. The snowpack in the mountains is paltry, as what little snow that fell often melted.

Now this heat wave will melt snow at very high elevations, the way heat waves do in June.  That would leave little runoff to keep rivers running and reservoirs with at least some water for the summer. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this heat episode contributes to serious water shortages this summer.

Utah State Climatologist Jon Meyer said the state's snowpack is at record low levels and Utah's reservoirs are only at about 40 percent capacity.  "All this means we are likely to see some very tangible water supply cuts and conservation efforts by the state this year," Meyer told the Washington Post. 

The early heat waves make me worried about summertime. We've had our share of record heat during the summer in our climate change regime. Some of it has been unprecedented heat in recent years.

Will this be the summer when things really get out of control?

 

False Spring Is Over In Vermont After A Weird Wednesday, Welcome Back To Winter. And March Winds

The loss of snow uncovered this messy look in one of my
perennial gardens, but it's too muddy to clean  up yet.
And now the weather will be too stormy and wintry
over the next week to do anything about it.
Patience is a virtue during early spring in Vermont

It's kind of windy and chilly out there this morning, and gray, with a few showers around. False spring is definitely over. 

Before we get into what's happening next, we have to talk about how weird yesterday's temperature were. 

In the morning, it took time for northern areas to warm up after that intrusion of chilly air that actually caused an ice storm up in southern Quebec  

At 9 a.m. it was 49 degrees in Rutland, with thunderstorms approaching. A short distance away in Middlebury it was just 32 degrees. 

As we went through the day Wednesday, the temperature ranges expanded. At 1 p.m., readings ranged from 36 degrees in Highgate to 63 in Bennington. Meanwhile, freezing rain continued all day up in Montreal. 

Then it got really weird.

 Last night, a tongue of very warm air was able to head up through western Vermont. Highs reached 69 in Bennington and 63 degrees in Burlington after dark. .

The warm air lingered in Vermont until a little after midnight. It was still 63 degrees in Burlington at about 1 a.m., which means even though today is chilly, we still tied the record high for the date. Meanwhile, while it was in the 60s across northern Vermont very early this morning,  it was still just 30 degrees with lingering freezing rain not so far away in Montreal. 

The warm air never really made it into eastern Vermont, either. It mostly stayed in the 40s there.

Rivers this morning are still running high after all that snowmelt and rain. Though the rain was mostly a little less than expected, which is good.  There could be some low lying roads under water today. If you see that, don't drive through it. Please turn around and find another way around. Nobody needs to be fishing you out of an inundated car today. There's enough problems out there as it is.

BACK TO REALITY

At 4 a.m. today in Bennington, it was still 65 degrees. By 9 a.m., it was 36 degrees and snowing.  Except for a brief warm excursion we might see on Monday, winter weather is back and will prevail for more than a week. 

It won't be the intense below zero cold we saw in early February. It's getting  late in the season for that. But spring weather can't last forever this time of year!  

Expect a lot of breezy to windy weather, too. The March reputation for wind is no myth. The burgeoning forces of spring compete with the lingering claws of winter, and that creates a lot of tight temperature contrasts and storms. 

Hence winds.

An unbelievably huge area of the northern United States was under a high wind warning this morning. Those high wind warnings extended from Washington State all the way to Minnesota and Iowa. Slightly lower level wind advisories ran further east into Pennsylvania and New York. 

For us in Vermont, we won't get the worst of the winds, but you'll feel the chill from the gusts those winds create. Temperatures with those gusty winds should stay in the 30s today. 

THE NEXT STORM

A storm coming in from the west is set to give us a mostly light snowfall Friday night into Saturday. Low elevations will get near to a little above freezing during this episode, so a lot of valleys might only get an inch of snow, or even a bit less. The Green Mountain chain can expect a few inches. 

It'll be kind of windy from the south ahead of the storm Friday and kind of windy from the west after th storm Saturday. 

A BIGGER STORM

A much larger storm is due Sunday and Monday. It's still forecast to develop in the central Plains Sunday and get stronger fast as it eventually moves northward through the eastern Great Lakes. 

For us, the early guess is some snow will develop Sunday then turn into a mix and then rain overnight Sunday. Specifics on ice, how much and when aren't quite available yet.

This storm is, however, going to be a windbag and another opportunity to have wild swings in temperatures. Strong south winds look like they'll boost us at least into the 50s and maybe low 60s amid the rain showers Monday.

Then, strong north winds will plunge us into the 20s by Tuesday, with some snow showers. 

I'll have more specifics on this storm in a couple days, as it could be a bit of a humdinger. 

Another Deadly Spate Of Tornadoes In Midwest

Large tornado in Kankakee, Illinois yesterday. The same
supercell that produced this twister created additional
ones in Indiana, leading to two deaths. Photo via
Facebook, Storm Chaser Adam Lucio

 Less than a week after deadly tornadoes struck Michigan, more dangerous twisters swept through Illinois and Indiana last night, killing at least two people. 

The worst of it was in Kankakee County in Illinois and adjacent areas of Indiana. Two people have been confirmed dead in Lake Village, Indiana, where several other people were seriously hurt. 

As ABC 7 in Chicago reported, Lake City Fire Department Chief Rob Churchill said:"Total devastation, there were houses that were collapsed. There werre people trapped in  houses. There is livestock loose. Pretty much anything that you have seen before on newscast and on videos

He said the tornado trampled through 3.5 miles of town. Four firefighters and their own homes badly damaged. 

In Kankakee County, Illinois, nobody was killed by the tornado but nine were injured. Drone video from Kankakee showed houses completely leveled and trees turned into poles, completely stripped of any branches. 

The supercell also created havoc outside the path of the tornado. People in Kankakee said the hail was as big as their hands. One photo taken in the area showed a five to six inch diameter hailstone, which might end up establishing a record for largest hailstone on record for the state of Illinois.

Elsewhere, torrents of rain and hail hit parts of Michigan. In Grand Rapids. the hail fell so heavily that it clogged storm drains, leading to flooding.  Video showed vehicles in water at least up to the windows, with clumps of hail floating on the water. 

Other video from Grand Rapids show large piles of hail left over after being washed down hills. 

Oklahoma City and surrounding towns were under a tornado warning last evening. It's unclear if any tornadoes touched down, but there was wind damage in the metro area. 

Overall, there were 23 reports of tornadoes across the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. 

The Washington Post is reporting that one reason for the rough start of the 2026 tornado season ins a marine heat wave in the Gulf of Mexico.

Water there has become much warmer than normal. Because the water is so warm, humid southerly winds coming off the Gulf carry more heat and moisture than they usually do. Heat and humidity are key ingredients for a tornado outbreak.

If any of the ingredients are stronger than usual, the severe storms and tornadoes can also become stronger.  

The bad weather had moved east by today. This afternoon, tornado watches are in effect for parts of Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, and in eastern Texas and western Louisiana. 

After that, severe weather looks like it will become more subdues. There is a threat of some strong storms and maybe a few tornadoes in the South Sunday, but that's about it for the next week or so. 

The warmer Gulf waters, brought on by climate change,  have probably in recent years increased the severity of some severe weather outbreaks. That water has also worsened some hurricanes.