Friday Morning: Hard Core Spring Arrives In Vermont

After a windy, dry day, some wind-roiled, interesting 
clouds set up shop overhead in St. Albans, Vermont
Thursday at sunset. Clouds are back today, and
by the end of the day they'll yield some April showers.

 As expected, we had our gusty, mild Thursday, as temperatures reached the low 60s in many areas.

The wind made outdoor spring clean up difficult, especially in the Champlain Valley. I see that Burlington gusted to as high as 49 mph on Thursday. The relative humidity was down in the teens and low 20s, so the forecast of a high fire danger was also correct. 

I'm sure there were a few instances of out of control fires yesterday in Vermont. Small, but potentially dangerous. 

I'm aware of one fire up on Skunks Misery Road in Franklin, Vermont. I had to mention this blaze, which was quickly brought under control, because it's my favorite street name in the state.

TODAY

Anyway, there's still some lingering fire danger today, especially in southern Vermont, where it's drier. Winds are lighter, but not calm, so we still have to be careful out there. A cold front is approaching, and that will provide a little rain later this afternoon and evening to tamp down the fire risk a little bit. 

The clouds will come in from the west and north, and that will have an effect on the temperatures. Where it clouds up first in  northwest Vermont, temperatures should still make it up to around 60 degrees, which is still relatively mild for this time of year. So, fine. It'll be in the 60s in central Vermont and near 70 in warmer valleys south. 

We'll have a  rising chance of showers this afternoon first in the northwest, then spreading south and east. It looks like very little rain will fall until very late this afternoon and into the evening, when the bulk of it will come down.

"Bulk" is a bit of an extreme word for the situation we're actually facing. We're only going to see a quarter to a third of an inch of rain, give or take, north and central, with a tenth of an inch or less in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

This all might end as a few snowflakes in the highest elevations north overnight, but most of us won't see any snow this time. It fact, if you're a weird hard core snow lover, you're kind of screwed. For once, no snow is really in the forecast at all. I think that's the first time since late October I could say that!

WEEKEND

It'll be a cool April weekend, but certainly not frigid.  Saturday will be a classic April day: Highs will be in the 40s to around 50. We'll see some nippy north breezes, but bright sunshine should take the edge off the chill. 

It'll be below freezing overnight Saturday night, but it won't be the deep, near record cold we saw Wednesday morning. Instead, it'll just be a typical April freeze with lows in the 20s to around 30.

You'll notice skies clouding up Sunday as temperatures hold in the low 50s. We'll see a rising chance of rain as we go through the day, too.  Get your outdoor stuff done in the morning if you can. 

NEXT WEEK

We have some hard core spring weather coming with warm temperatures, relatively humid air and a frequent risk of showers, especially in northern Vermont. 

There will be a front nearby separating relatively cool air to the north with almost summer-like air south. It's hard to say exactly where the front will set up, but it should waver north and south occasionally as disturbances roll through. 

The early guess is northern Vermont will be on the warm side,  with highs most of next week in the 60s to possibly near 70.  I'll happily take that if we comes!

Far southern Vermont could see a few days in a row of downright summer conditions, with highs in the 70s to possibly near 80 and mild low in the 50s. You might even be tempted to get you air conditioning set up for the summer. 

That's no guarantee, the forecast is going to need refining and updating between now and Monday. But regardless, I think you're going to see things turning greener and buds swelling outside very nicely over the next week or so. 

Next thing you know, you'll be mowing your lawn. It'll hit sooner than you think. Especially with the kind of weather that's in the forecast. 

Despite the usual snowy setbacks, it's been an incredibly easy spring in Vermont so far. It looks like that will continue.  I hope I''m not jinxing it. The last thing we need is a wintry May! 

Did Landing Planes Cause Some Weird Little Waterspouts Near Boston's Logan Airport?

Hard to see in this screen grab, but a strange
waterspout is seen approaching shore in
a bay in South Boston. The theory is that
planes landing at nearby Logan Airport
helped set off the strange phenomenon. 

Something strange happened not far from Boston's Logan airport earlier this week. 

This was at Castle Island In South Boston, in a cover of water known as Pleasure Bay. It appeared two waterspouts approaching shore there Tuesday morning.

Video of the incident is at the bottom of this post. 

It's not completely clear from the video, it looks like the two waterspouts, or whatever they were, spun in opposite directions as they both advanced toward shore.

 It seemed like a bit of a mystery, since atmospheric conditions didn't seem conducive to waterspouts.  

There were some rain and snow showers in the area around 8 or 9 a.m.. But they didn't seem the type of thing that would spawn waterspouts.  And it appears the video was taken around 6:30 a.m or so.

On key thing: It appears the area where the waterspout like features appeared was in the flight path of low flying aircraft heading northbound to land at nearby Logan airport. 

The theory is that exhaust from at least one of the low-flying planes somehow reached down and formed a sort of air whirlpool or two which sustained themselves one the plane was gone. 

Obviously, this whole thing wasn't strong enough to cause damage or danger, but it was an example of how the strangest things can cause some local weather effects.  

Click on this link to view the video. If you see the image below, click on that. 

 

From Snow To A Fire Risk As Quick Spring Weather Changes Continue In Vermont

It''s that time of year when we start seeing
brush fire dangers in Vermont. For
today, yellow areas have a  high
fire danger, while blue areas
have a moderate danger. 

 Most of the snow from earlier this week has melted away - at least at low elevations. And now, Vermont suddenly faces a brush fire risk today. 

As expected, yesterday featured wall-to-wall sunshine and very low humidity. That evaporated most of the snow quickly to the point where I could tell by late afternoon that the dry weeds from last year were tinder dry already. 

True, there were still patches of snow in the shadows where the sun wasn't able to penetrate. But those patches are few and far between. Today, believe it or not, is a day to be really, really careful with fire.

Especially in the Champlain Valley. 

TODAY

The high pressure that brought the record cold Wednesday morning to Saranac Lake, New York and Montpelier, Vermont has headed to our east, as expected. 

A squeeze play was setting up between that high pressure to our east and a cold front far to our northwest. The result is some dry south to southwest winds that were already starting to pick up in the Champlain Valley as of 8 a.m.  

Those winds will keep increasing. By late this morning though early evening, gusts will reach to between 35 and 40 mph in the Champlain Valley and 20 to 30 mph elsewhere. Except maybe in the lower Connecticut Valley and protected valleys in eastern Vermont, where the winds will be a little lighter.

Since it's so dry, the slightest spark could set that dry brush on fire. That fire would spread fast and be hard to control given how gusty it is and how dry the air is. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation says there's a high fire danger all through western Vermont west of the Green Mountains. Also in the lower Connecticut River Valley, which has had little precipitation recently. Elsewhere, the fire danger in Vermont is moderate. Mostly due to a few snow patches and wet spots left in mid elevations. 

This sort of situation is common in April. Parched, sunny air and winds can really dry out all that dead brush, even if it rained or snowed just a couple days earlier. 

We already had one small, but briefly out of control brush fire in Northfield yesterday, even before the wind started to blow. So today's the day not to flick your cigarette butt out your car window. And that brush pile in the back 40 that needs to be burned should wait for some more damp weather. 

Which is on its way. 

TONIGHT/FRIDAY

The dry winds will continue to blow tonight, but not as strongly . The humidity will be a little higher.  There might even be a brief sprinkle north, but don't count on it. All those factors will diminish but not get rid of the fire danger.

The winds and fire risk should continue for part of tomorrow. but that cold front will slowly approach, then arrive with its showers in the afternoon and evening. 

This will be no means be a blockbuster rain, but it will tamp down the fire risk. Some areas of northern Vermont could see up to a third of an inch of rain, but most of us should stay under a quarter inch.  Southeastern Vermont, and maybe parts of the Champlain Valley could stay under a tenth of an inch. So not exactly a memorable storm. 

By the way, hights today ad tomorrow should be well into the 50s to maybe low 60s in spots, so fairly mild!

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

It'll be a classic bright April weekend in Vermont with cool breezes, and a fair amount of sun. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be fairly close to 50 degrees, but Sunday should be the warmer of the two days. 

Things kind of get interesting next week as a sort of stalled weather pattern develops. Vermont will stay near a boundary separating warm, humid air to the south and chilly air to the north. We might start getting a few days thrown in where the far north of Vermont is in the 40s and low 50s while the far south is in the 70s. 

For now, though, the first couple of days of next week look pretty balmy statewide.

That's not a firm forecast yet, because we don't know exactly where the front will set up on any given day. Also, again, depending on where the front and disturbances riding along position themselves. It also looks like there's chances of showers or even thunderstorms each day next week starting Monday 

This pattern is also ominous for much of the Plains and Midwest, as it creates conditions for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes out there. 

Looming El Nino Getting More Likely To Become "Super" It Means Ever More Extreme Weather On Climate-Fatigued Planet

A forecast map for the equatorial Pacific for 
late summer an early fall shows a strong El Nino
In the box, it shows much above normal water
temperature in the central and eastern Pacific
near the equator. 

Scientists have been telling us for months now that a new El Nino global pattern is about to start. That type of thing tends to warm up the world. Combine an El Nino with climate change, and you can take the global climate to new, hot, heights. 

Now, we're being told this could well turn into a "Super El Nino" and that makes the news even more potentially grim. At least if you're not a fan of punishing droughts, super storms and dangerous, record smashing heat waves.

Yes, that sort of thing is going on already, but a Super El Nino could make things much, much worse.   

Per the Washington Post: 

"During a typical El Nino, a warming patch of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean influences what regions experience droughts, floods, extreme heat, hurricanes and declining sea ice. During relatively rare super El Nino events, happening once every 10 to 15 years on average, the effects may be stronger, more persistent and more widespread."

The Washington Post reports;

This El Nino "could break the record for El Nino intensity set in December, 20125, when sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific reached 2.8 degrees Celsius (5.04 degrees Fahrenheit) above average."

Each El Nino is different, because underlying natural weather patterns can affect it. And climate change makes the effects of El Nino even less certain. The effects of El Nino will probably peak during the upcoming winter. Overall,  some of those effects include:

Drought:

Sone tropical countries, like the Caribbean and Indonesia, could face serious droughts.  So could central and northern India, where a super El Nino can disrupt and even stop the annual monsoon season. Serious droughts have an excellent shot at developing in portions of Central Africa, Australia, the Philippines, Central America and northern Brazil.

The  El Nino could be really bad news for the western United States. Coming off a record warm winter, and unprecedented March heat that has already set the stage of water shortages, the El Nino could create an especially hot, dry summer in the West. 

However, El Ninos can cause unusual humidity in the West. That could lead to some beneficial rains, but also severe storms that would extend into the Plains.  Usually, the worst of the United States severe weather season usually tapers off in June, but this year, it could help extend the season longer, if the El Nino develops fast enough. 

While certain areas of the world would get much drier under a super El Nino, the overall threat of flooding in the world would increase due to higher levels of atmospheric moisture brought on by the el Nion

Storms and Hurricanes

On the bright side, the potential Caribbean and Central African droughts would be related to a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season.  Disturbances coming off the west coast of Africa would be weaker and less frequent, lessening the chances that any of them would develop into hurricanes. 

Much more importantly, El Nino would contribute to strong upper level winds in areas of the tropical Atlantic. Those strong upper winds cut wannabe hurricanes off at the pass, destroying tall thunderstorms before they can organize into a tropical storm.  

The U.S. got a break last year with no landfalling hurricanes. An El Nino could make us lucky for the second year in a row. But that comes with a big caveat. El Ninos tend to reduce the number of hurricanes. But it doesn't eliminate them. It takes only one hurricane to cause a cataclysm. We're not entirely safe. 

There will be enough cataclysms with or without hurricanes anyway. Next winter, if the strong El Nino develops, the South, including Florida, would become cool and stormy, with the risk of wintertime severe storms and tornado outbreaks. 

We'd also see an increase in flooding across Peru and Ecuador, sections of northern and eastern Africa and in the Middle East. 

Heat Waves

Virtually every place on Earth would be at risk for punishing, record heat waves. Africa, parts of the Middle East, Africa, Europe, the southern U.S. and possibly Australia would be most at risk. 

If this super El Nino does in fact get underway, 2027 has an excellent shot of becoming the hottest year on record, even besting the especially torrid 2024, the current record holder. Because of a lag between the development of an El Nino and how it affects global weather patterns, I doubt this year will be the world's warmest. 

Climate change has created a sort of step-up trend in which pretty much every El Nino creates a new record for global warmth. Between El Ninos and during La Ninas, which should cool the Earth, global temperatures tend to just level off.

"Due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system cannot effectively exhaust the heat released in a major El Nino event before the next El Nino comes along an pushes the baseline upward again," Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb said in the Washington Post. 

 VERMONT EFFECTS

It's always nearly impossible to tease out what effects an El Nino might have on a pinpoint area like Vermont. But we can give some general thoughts that aren't exactly a forecast, based on what we've seen in past super- El Ninos

The most noticeable effects here are warm winters. During the 2016 super El Nino, Burlington what was its warnest and second warmest winters on record in 2015-16 and 2016-17.  (The warmest winter is now 2023-24)

The 2015 El Nino might have helped contribute to the hottest December readings in Vermont that year, breaking records set December, 1998 during a previous strong El Nino. 

Chances are next winter won't be the kind of long, drawn out, persistently cold affair we endured this year. 

As for storms, it seems that Vermont is at a higher risk of trouble, but no guarantees. It's hard to know whether El Nino had anything to do with it, ut the Great Ice storm of January, 1998 and serious flooding in June and July of that year were doing a super El-Nino.

I also recall some spring floods during the 1982-83 El Nino, mostly along Lake Champlain due to persistent rains and snows in April and May, 1983. 

Although we had some notably wet months during the 2015-16 El Nino in Vermont, there wasn't really much in the way of serious flooding, though there were some local flash floods in the warmer months. 

 

Coldest Vermont/New York April Morning In A Decade; Spring Returns This Afternoon. Believe It Or Not, Fire Danger By Tomorrow?

A wintry April scene in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
this evening, but by noon, most of this snow will
be gone, and we can get back to our regularly
scheduled spring. 

As expected, we had some winter cold to start this clear April morning, and some areas around Vermont and New York really got into this January-like spell. 

Saranac Lake, New York was down to a wild minus 3 this morning, which the latest in the season subzero temperature I've seen in the region in decades..

I did find one later in the season subzero reading in Saranac Lake. It was 3 below there way back on April 12, 1926.

Here in Vermont, I saw that it had gotten to at least 3 above zero at Lake Eden, so it's   a cold hollow or two in the Northeast Kingdom could have touched zero early this morning. 

Elsewhere, Montpelier got down to 14 degrees, tying their record low for the date, first set in 1982.   

Burlington did not come close to its record low, which is 11 degrees back in 1972. It got down to 16 degrees, though. The last time it was colder than that was a decade ago when in reached 14 degrees on April 5, 2016.   

I noticed the birds, which have been making a racket most mornings, have been pretty silent this morning. I think gardens might have lost their shot at magnolia flowers later this morning. However, the daffodil, crocus and hyacinth shoots that have been poking up should survive this just fine. 

Also, spring staples such as lilacs should also be fine, as the buds are still currently pretty tight and small. 

TODAY:

With the strong April sun out there, temperatures should rocket upward super fast this morning, topping out in the 40s this afternoon.  That's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. But light winds and that sun will make it feel even warmer than it is. 

Where there's snow on the ground, it'll melt very fast, except in the shade. The humidity today will be at rock bottom.  It's hard to melt even a little snow in the shade when it's this dry, so the dark corners of your yard might still have snow on them at the end of the day. In the dry sun, the snow should disappear in a flash. 

FIRE DANGER?

This seems far fetched, given that many of us are started the day with snow on the ground, but by tomorrow, we'll actually have a  fire danger here in Vermont. 

In today's super low humidity, the snow will basically evaporate in the sun. Many areas of Vermont don't really even have snow on the ground this morning, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, so the moisture on the ground will dry quickly. 

There's no real greenery yet this time of year, so all those dry grasses and weeds and such are just kindling waiting to burn. Tomorrow, the sun should stay out, the humidity will stay very low, and the wind should pick up. 

In the Champlain Valley, winds by tomorrow afternoon should gust to 35 or even 40 mph. Elsewhere, most places should see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. That's more than enough to spread even a small fire across the dry landscape. 

It might seem awfully sudden to go from snow to a fire hazard, but that's really common this time of year. High pressure systems from Canada are particularly dry this time of year. It's also a windy season and, as noted, things on the ground haven't greened up yet. This is pretty much peak fire season in Vermont. 

We've already had one large fire this year in Ferrisburgh that burned through 100 acres or so on March 31,  So we're already off to a not-great start this year.   

SPRING

On the bright side, spring weather will continue. It should get well into the 50s tomorrow. If a cold front holds off long enough on Friday, we could see some 60s.  It does look like a little rain might come through during the day or evening on Friday - those traditional April shower.

After a somewhat cooler but definitely not cold Saturday (highs in the low 50s), we could have a day or two threatening the 70 degree mark early next week. 

April Snow Over-Performed In Vermont Today, Oddly Frigid Night Tonight Before Spring Returns

Back to the middle of winter early this evening in 
St. Albans, Vermont after a day-long snowfall. Small
dark splotches on ground in foreground are 
daffodil shoots coming up. 

As expected, it was a snowy one in much of Vermont today. It seemed the most persistent snow was over the Champlain Valley and the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Had this snow come through at night, several areas in the Champlain Valley and elsewhere in northern as Vermont would have had perhaps two to five inches of snow.  

Almost all the snow today hit during daylight hours. Though it was below freezing out there when it was snowing, enough heat came through the clouds from the high angled April sun that some of the snow melted as more while was falling from the sky. 

If you measured on pavement or bare ground, there was little if any snow, because of that solar radiation. This was good, because main roads, especially in low elevations, stayed pretty much just wet. Roads today weren't as bad as they could have been, but I did see some slick spots out there.

On grassy services and elevated decks, the snow piled up. On Facebook, people in such disparate places in Vermont as Milton and Jamaica reported to the National Weather Service they had two or three inches of fresh snow on their decks. 

Still, this snow turned out to be a bit on an over-performer, especially for this time of year.  Some mid and high elevations really got some serious accumulation. Walden, Vermont reports 4.9 inches of new snow. About 3.5 inches of new snow graced Camels Hump State Park. 

Here in St. Albans, I measured 1.4 inches of new snow on my deck as of 6 p.m. It was still snowing a little at the time, but it was tapering off and I don't anticipate much additional accumulation. Either here or anywhere else in Vermont. 

In Burlington, the National Weather Service reported 1.6 inches of new snow so far today. That's nowhere near the record, because a large snowstorm hit on this date in 1974, dumping 7.3 inches of snow on Burlington. 

We escaped anything like that, so I guess we were lucky, but it still looks like the middle of winter out there. At least in the Champlain Valley and northern Greens. 

Southern Vermont got their inch or so of snow early this morning, and ended up getting very little during the day. I noticed areas east of the Green Mountains south of Route 2 appear to have gotten little or no snow, too.

 TONIGHT

Now, there's snow on the ground in most of northern Vermont and New York, It's really unlikely to melt before sunset. Satellite imagery early this evening showed the disturbance causing the snow is moving out and clearing skies were moving in from the north and west. 

Those skies should be pretty clear by a few hours after sunset. Winds will go light and variable, so the stag is set for one of the coldest April nights in a decade, or more than a generation, depending on how things work out. 

The last time Burlington had an April temperature as cold or colder than what's anticipated tonight was in 2016 when it hit 14 degrees.  The last time it was colder than that was 10 degrees in April, 1995. 

It doesn't look like much snow accumulated around Montpelier today, but they still have an excellent shot of reaching a record low of 14 by morning. 

I'll  have updates, of course, tomorrow morning. 

 

Snowy April Day Underway In Vermont, Should Clear Out Late, Spring Still Coming

Traffic camera shows a snowy Route 9 in Searsburg, Vermont
around 7:30 this morning. An initial burst of snow hit
far southern Vermont. Much of the rest of the state
could see briefly heavy snow showers today. 

 If it hasn't snowed where you are yet as you read this in and around Vermont, it will soon. 

A small disturbance is blowing through, consisting oa a reinforcing shot of cold air that'll keep us quite chilly through tomorrow morning. 

A burst of pretty heavy snow has already crossed Bennington and Windham counties in southern Vermont, depositing a quick inch of snow. 

It left roads looking pretty slippery around Bennington and along Route 9 heading up and over the far southern Green Mountains. 

Scattered snow showers were across parts of central Vermont as of 8 a.m. Another main band of snow appeared to be twisting around the mini-storm's center not far from Watertown, New York. It was gradually heading east.

I'm not sure whether that band will hold together completely, but almost all of the state has a shot of a quick inch of snow, if it hasn't already happened. There's a slight question as to whether the snow band will be able to pivot into the far northern Champlain Valley, but for now, we should assume it will. 

In any event, the snow could briefly come down pretty hard anywhere in the state. That means that we'll have to harken back to our winter driving habits a bit as the roads will get briefly slick. Since this is happening in April during the day, some of the snow will tend to start melting off shortly after any bursts of heavier snow ends. 

Hopefully that means any problems with icy roads won't last long. This isn't a full blown winter storm, after all. Just a nippy springtime hassle. 

Yep, another snowfall forecast map. Perhaps the last one
of the season? Don't count on it. This map shows many
of us could get a quick inch of snow. There might
be locally heavier surprises in the mountains

Some places might have more than one burst of heavy snow.  Certain spots in the state could technically get up to two or three inches of snow. 

But it would be an inch that melts, followed by another inch that melts again. So nobody except the high elevations should have much  more than an inch of snow on the ground out of this. 

That said, small mini-storms like this in April can work with amazingly lame amounts of atmospheric moisture and create a good local dump of snow, so keep an eye on it through the day.

 A few isolated spots - mostly up high -  could end up with several inches of surprise snow. No guarantees, but just a possibility there. 

Our little disturbance should start to head on out late this afternoon, taking its snow showers with it. 

FRIGID TONIGHT

We're setting ourselves up for potentially the coldest April night since 2016.  What is likely, hopefully, the last Arctic high pressure system of the season should settle right over the top of overnight and early tomorrow. That means light winds and clear skies - the perfect recipe for a frigid night. 

Or almost perfect. If there's snow cover, it tends to get even colder in these situations. Many of us will still have some snow on the ground overnight, so that could make things even chillier.  The bottom line: Most of us will be in the frigid teens by the time dawn breaks tomorrow. A few of us could be in the single digits. 

That's damn cold for April. Maybe even close to record territory in a few places. Burlington's record low of 11 tomorrow is completely safe.  But it could get close in St. Johnsbury, where the record low is 10 above on Wednesday. The most likely candidate is Montpelier. Their record low tomorrow is 14 degrees, and the forecast low is also 14 degrees.

SPRING RETURNS

Don't worry, we still are convinced spring will come back in a hurry. And stay for awhile this time. Tomorrow afternoon will still be cool for this time of year, but 40s won't seem bad after today. 

Thursday and Friday will pop right up into the nice 50s to low 60s before another cold front comes in. But the next cold front is a spring front, not an Arctic one. So Saturday will probably only be about 50 degree, which is still reasonable.

On top of that, a stiff southwest wind could bring us up to near 70 degrees next Monday if thick clouds and rain hold off until the end of the day. Stay tuned on that one!