Vermont Mostly Done With The Rain For A Couple Days, Warming Trend To Start

After a cloudy, cool day, a shaft of sunlight lit up the
trees just before sunset yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont

 As expected, southern parts of Vermont scored the best rains yesterday and last night. I don't have a lot of reports yet, but Springfield looks like they had 1.21 inches of rain and Bennington a respectable 0.7 inches. 

You get north and the rain tapered off, again as expected. Montpelier had just 0.32 inches. Burlington had a scant 0.01 inches.

It's just as well the north missed out. It's soggy up there. The National Weather Service in South Burlington just released some stats noting just how wet it's been.

In general this time of year, most Vermont towns should expect a little over four inches of rain over a 30 day period. Burlington in the past 30 days has had 6.74 inches. But that's one of northern Vermont's "dry" spots. 

Over the past 30 days, Westfield has had a drenching 11.15 inches so drain. Derby Line was at 9.99 inches. Other totals include 9.98 inches in Underhill Center, 9.92 inches in Montgomery Center, 9.85 inches in Richmond and 9.44 inches in Glover.

FORECAST

It won't be as wet! Here are the details

Today/Tomorrow. 

These sodden towns, and the rest of the state, should stay mostly dry today and tomorrow, for a change. I say "mostly" because cool air aloft today might spark some isolated light showers. A weak disturbance Wednesday could touch off a few more widely scattered showers near the Canadian border. 

But, in general, today and tomorrow will be dry. And we'll start a warming trend. A pretty slow trend, but warmer nonetheless. 

We'll get well into the 70s today, with some upper 70s in the  more banana belt valleys of Vermont. . That'll make today the warmest day since last Wednesday. By tomorrow. highs should touch 80 in many valleys. 

Thursday/Friday

The rain comes back but it's unclear how much.  It looks like much of Thursday will be dry with shower chances maybe ramping up later in the day. We think there will be some showers and storms around Thursday night and Friday, but it's unclear how much rain we'll get.  We're also not sure whether any of the storms will be on the strong side. 

This won't be as big and bold and mighty a weather system as the last one we dealt with, so early guesses are the rain won't be as heavy and the severe weather might not be as widespread as last time. If it happens at all. 

Highs both days should be at least 80 degrees in most towns. Overnight lows will still be reasonable enough at around 60 degrees, give or take.

Next Weekend And Beyond

It looks like full on summer weather will continue to build. Highs by next weekend should at least hit the low 80s for most of us. There might still be some scattered afternoon showers or storms over the weekend, but we're not sure on that yet. 

It'll get even warmer as we get into next week. Some signs are pointing toward a downright hot spell to settle in some time next week, just in time for July

Gulf Coast Awash In Deep Floodwaters After Sputtering Tropical Storm Dumps Feet Of Rain, Tornadoes Won't Leave Illinois Alone

A badly flooded home in southern 
Mississippi last week. Photo via 
Facebook, Gulf Coast Severe
Weather and Tropics. 

If you think we've had enough of tornadoes and torrential rains here in Vermont, it could be worse. Much, much worse. 

The Gulf Coast states have been awash in extreme flooding after record rainfall. Illinois has endured a record number of tornadoes, and surrounding states are cowering under the severe weather. Let's take a look:

GULF COAST

A small, weak tropical storm led to extreme flooding in recent days that was anything but small and weak. 

The flooding began in Texas early last week as a disorganized system in the western Gulf of Mexico flung enormous amounts of moisture into the state's coastline.

By Wednesday, the system organized itself enough to be declared Tropical Storm Arthur, the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane sassoon. 

It reached top winds of only 45 mph and lived really less than a day as it came inland over the eastern Texas coast. But the remnants of the storm did what slow moving remains of tropical storms do: It released unbelievable amounts of rain, especially in southern Alabama and Mississippi

According to NBC, rain fell in parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi at a rate of three inches per hours Thursday. For comparison, it normally takes about three weeks to accumulate three inches of rain during a summer month in Vermont. 

At least five people have died in the flooding that has extended from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. More than two feet of rain fell in Louisiana this week. Louisiana and Mississippi record more than a foot of rain in just 12 hours, which is insane. 

AccuWeather estimates Arthur and the flood before and after it formed would cause $4 to $6 billion in damage and economic losses through property and infrastructure damage, power outages, flight delays and business interruptions. 

The worst of the rain has ended in the Gulf Coast states. But sporadic heavy showers and thunderstorms will keep going this week. 

ILLINOIS

A large Illinois tornado yesterday. The state has had a
record number of tornadoes this year and there will
probably be more. Photo via Facebook from 
Storm Chaser Jaden Pappenheim

Illinois has seemingly become the tornado capitol of the United States. The state sees tornadoes every year, of course, given that it's in the Midwest. 

There were 35 reports of tornadoes in southeast Illinois and southern Indiana Sunday.

Through Sunday,  Illinois has had as many as 197 tornadoes  this year, and not all storm damage has been assessed yet to determine whether additional tornadoes have touched down. This breaks the record for the most Illinois tornadoes in a single year. The previous record was 142 two years ago. 

No other state has had as many tornadoes this year as Illinois. This might be yet another sign that tornado alley is drifting from the central and southern Plains to points east and north. As noted, bad tornadoes have hit Illinois in the past, but they do seem to becoming more frequent there, and in northern states like Ohio and Michigan. 

Sunday's tornadoes included one powerful twister that killed two people in Jefferson County, Illinois. 

After something of a break over the next couple of days, the weather setup suggests another severe weather and possible tornado outbreak 

Videos

NBC gives a good overview of the Gulf Coast flooding here. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

View of the deadly tornado in southern Illinois Sunday. It was one of up to three dozen twisters in the Midwest. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.  

Soaking Rains To Hit Southern Vermont Later Today, Tonight. Only A Little Rain North. We Think

 A brief thunderstorms interrupts a day at the dog park
in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday

 People in northern and central Vermont woke up to mostly clear skies for a change today, after so much rain has fallen in recent days. 

It was already clouding up in anticipation of more rain across southern Vermont. More on that in a minute. 

Sunday, in its own way, was a rather pretty day. Sure. many of us had to dash indoors when the showers an thunderstorms blew through. But the towering thunderstorm clouds and the big fluffy towering cumulus made the sky pretty. 

But, like I said it's going to rain again. Here are the details

MONDAY

The best thing about the upcoming bout of rain is it's mostly going to hit southern Vermont, where they actually kind of need it. Far northern Vermont, which is absolutely saturated at the moment. 

The latest rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service. More than an inch of rain is 
expected by tomorrow morning in southern Vermont,
while far northern Vermont gets very little. 

Southern Vermont really is in for a soaker. Most people from Rutland and Windsor counties south should get more than an inch of rain. Some places will see 1.5 inches, or maybe even close in on two inches in one or two isolated spots in the far southern Green Mountains.

Because it will be a steady drenching rain and not sharp downpours, flooding won't happen. Instead, the water will soak into the relatively dry ground. 

Central Vermont should only get a quarter to a half inch of rain.  Far northern Vermont gets a break from the incessant rain. Those areas should see less than a tenth of an inch. 

There is still a chance the weather system could go a little north of the planned path or a little south. This would change rainfall amounts up or down. The forecast is tricky because there will be a sharp line between heavy rain south and very little north. 

This should mostly come through between late this afternoon and very early tomorrow morning. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

A mostly dry spell for a change. Hallelujah! There might be some widely scattered showers Tuesday afternoon in the north, especially in the mountains, but they shouldn't amount to much. Wednesday actually looks sunny with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 80. So nice early summer weather there. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

It looks like another system will roll with more showers and thunderstorms. An early peek suggest the heaviest rain might fall in the north again. It's still too soon to tell whether this will represent any kind of flood threat or not. 

Weird Rain Band Hit Parts Of Vermont Saturday, Showery Weather To Continue Until Possible Midweek Break

Rain to the north from a persistent rain band. This is
looking north along Interstate 89 in Colchester, VT

 Saturday was an odd weather day in at least parts of Vermont. We knew there would be showers and rumbles of thunder around as disturbances moved down into the Green Mountain State from Quebec. 

But one band of rain, only maybe 20 miles wide most of the time, enter Vermont's northwest corner and went southeastward into central Vermont. 

 And it stayed there from late morning until well into the evening.  Had this occurred in a very warm, very humid atmosphere, there probably would have been a terrible flash flood within that band.

Luckily, the airmass couldn't hold that much water, so the rain was light, with bursts of moderate rain and very quick downpours. The rainfall tended to get lighter the further south and east the rain band went. 

But still, it was strange. Here in St. Albans, we were right in the path of this narrow band, and we received  1.21 inches of rain from late morning until well into the evening. During that time, Burlington, just 30 miles to the south, got nothing. And the rain in St. Albans was constant.  It was reduced to a sprinkle at times, but at other times it came down at a brisk pace. 

National Weather Service radar from about 5:30 p.m. 
Saturday. It shows a persistent, nearly stationary rain 
band extending from well northwest of Montreal in 
Quebec southeastward through Vermont into 
New Hampshire. Though the band weakened in
eastern Vermont and New Hampahire. 

Rainfall from this band extended up into Quebec, where amounts were reported to be heavier than in Vermont. 

I'm not sure why that band didn't move. It might have been a weird deformation zone, which is an area on the outskirts of a storm in which a band of heavy precipitation sets up. But the storm itself was way up in the Canadian Maritimes, so that doesn't make much sense.  

Anyway, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans has now collected. 3.26 inches of rain since Thursday morning. It's pretty sodden out there. 

And more rain is in the forecast. For all of Vermont, not just St. Albans, of course!

TODAY

We're in for the same type of weather we had on Saturday, though perhaps minus the stalled rain band. 

There might not be quite as many showers and storms as yesterday, but many of us, especially central and north, will get wet today. Rainfall amounts should be in the tenth to a quarter inch range. Southern Vermont should see less than a tenth of an inch. 

Some places will have heavier showers or garden variety thunderstorms, and may get hit repeatedly. Those few and far between spots could get up to an inch of rain. But that will be the exception. 

Highs today in the valleys should hit the low 70s again, with a few mid 70s in banana belt places like the southern Champlain valley and the valleys of far southern Vermont. 

MONDAY

Southernmost Vermont has been missing out on most of the heavy rain, and they could actually use a good dousing. They might be in luck Monday afternoon and evening. 

A small, but very wet storm system is forecast to move about Indiana tonight to somewhere near New York City by Tuesday night. But there are still some questions about its eventual path. If it goes further south than expected, all but areas of Vermont pretty close to the Massachusetts border will miss out on most of the rain. 

If it goes a little further north than expected, a substantial rain could make it as far north as Route 2. 

As it stands now, areas south of Route 4 could get 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain out of this from Monday afternoon to early Tuesday morning. Central Vermont could get a quarter to a half inch. Soggy areas near the Canadian border might get a break and see little rain out of this. 

These amounts are subject to change depending on how forecasts get updated.

TUEDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

This will sound to many like good new: The middle of the upcoming week looks mostly dry in Vermont.  Fingers crossed.

The skies should clear Tuesday for a relatively sunny afternoon. Wednesday looks sunny, too. Some clouds and showers might return later in the day. 

The air should be summery without being hot. Highs will be in the 75 to 83 degree range all three days, depending mostly on elevation. Lows will be in the comfortable 50s to low 60s. 

More showers and maybe thunderstorms look like they'll return late in the week and next weekend, but it's too soon to say whether the rain will be heavy and widespread, or more scattered and light.  

Surprisingly Heavy Vermont Rainfall Raising Some Flood Concerns.

Just a few hours after the main band of strong 
thunderstorms departed on Thursday, the first in
a series of rain showers arrived that evening, as
seen here in St Albans. Several rounds of showers,
some heavy have come through since then. More
showers and possible downpours are
due today and Sunday.

An odd risk of some scattered flooding as developed in northern Vermont despite cool northwest winds that usually prevent that sort of thing. 

That big storm we had Thursday, the one that gave Vermont two tornadoes and other damaging wind storms, is  now lumbering around eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritime provinces. 

 The storm is sending bands of showers southeastward out of the Canadian Maritimes into mostly northern and central Vermont. 

Rain has been maldistributed in Vermont most of this month anyway. Northern Vermont, especially the Northeast Kingdom, has been getting lots of rain. The southeast corner of Vermont, which was still facing lingering dryness from last year's drought, has not gotten all that much rain at all.

During Thursday's storm, the Northeast Kingdom was drowned again. Several towns in north central and Northeast Vermont received more than two inches of rain from Thursday's storms. Meanwhile, the southeast corner of the state had some damaging thunderstorms Thursday, but they were quick hitters that only deposited a third to a half inch of rain. 

Yesterday, bands of rain, some of it heavy, sank slowly southward through the northern half of Vermont. Each individual shower in the band moved fast, but the showers were all following one another, like boxcars on a freight train, so surprisingly heavy rains fell. Southern Vermont got nothing.

Through midnight last night, Burlington has already received 4.3 inches of rain so far this month. The normal for the entire month of June is 4.26 inches, so we're already above normal for June. More rain fell early today. Some of it was heavy. 

Around 1:30 a.m. today, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington issued a flood warning  for much of Chittenden County, parts of Addison County, and the western slopes of the Green Mountains roughly between the Middlebury Snow Bowl an Smuggler's Notch due to a heavy period of overnight rain. 

The warning has since expired, and I haven't seen any flood reports yet, but I image some steep gravel roads or driveways might have suffered some damage.  

Usually, the amount of rain that falls in this type of weather situation with a west to northwest wind is quite light. But the disturbance rotating around the backside of that storm and into northern New England are pretty dynamic and energetic, and able to produce some locally heavy rains. 

TODAY

An interesting satellite photo shows a band of
heavy showers across north central Vermont Friday
while the south remained mostly clear. Those
showers produced locally heavy rain. 

This state of affairs will continue today. One area of showers was coming through northern Vermont as of 7:30 this morning. 

It contained brief downpours but the area of rain wasn't big or intense enough to set off any flooding. But it kept wetting the soils and helping rivers stay elevated. 

If we get more downpours today, I don't expect any serious river flooding, but there could be some local washouts, erosion things like that. 

The larger rivers are running high, which should make you think twice about taking a kayaking trip along those waterways. 

More disturbances will rotate through today. It'll be rather cloudy, especially north, but enough sun will get through to increase the instability in the air. This will create numerous showers and garden variety thunderstorms, but some of them might contain heavy rain. 

In general northern Vermont will see between a third and three quarters of an inch of rain today. But places in the mountainous terrain mostly north of Route 2 could see locally more than that, which could trigger isolated instances of flash flooding today. 

Highs will only be in the upper 60s and low 70s under the clouds and showers.

SUNDAY

Same old, same old. More rounds of showers and storms, mostly central and north. Highs will be a little warmer with temperatures getting into the 70s for most places. It'll still be a few degrees cooler than average. 

Once again, some showers or storms could produce some downpours in the northern mountains, so isolated flash flooding is possible again. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't worry about flash flooding tomorrow, but the ground is so saturated in the north that it could happen. Like today, if any flooding happens, it will be very localized. This weekend will be no means be a replay of the horrible summer floods in 2023 and 2024.

Rainfall this morning through Sunday evening will range from two inches or a little more in a couple spots in northern Vermont to less than a tenth of an inch near the Massachusetts border. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor lists an area of Vermont south and east of a line from Bennington to roughly White River Junction as abnormally dry, so the rain misses down there are annoying. But there's hope.

MONDAY

A small, fast moving but very wet little storm is forecast to scoot by to the south of Vermont on Monday. There's still some questions about how far north its heavy rain will extend. But chances are far southern Vermont could receive a really good soaking out of this. 

If everything works out right, Bennington and Windham counties could receive a couple inches of rain ou of this little storm. 

Amounts will taper off the further north you go.  This could change, but central Vermont could get moderate amounts of rain out of Monday's system. The sopping wet north would only get a little bit of rain. Which is great because that scenario would mean no risk of additional flooding. 

Long range forecasts can never be trusted, but predictions through the end of the month in indicate a slow warming trend and frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms through June 30 

TWO Tornadoes Struck Vermont On Thursday. The National Weather Service Gives Us The Details

Items scattered after yesterday's tornado
in Woodstock, Vermont. Two tornadoes
touched down in the state Thursday. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington broke some news this afternoon: There were actually two tornadoes in Vermont Thursday. 

We already knew about the one that hit the western part of Woodstock, Vermont. But it turns out another tornado hit an area near and along York Hill Road in the Addison County town of Lincoln. 

The Addison County tornado doesn't come as a complete surprise. Meteorologists tracked a rotating thunderstorm that felled trees in the Middlebury are, though those winds are not believed to be tornadic. The rotation seemed to intensity near Bristol which is very close to Lincoln, so it's not entirely surprising there was a tornado there. 

WOODSTOCK

The tornado in Woodstock was a high end EF-1 tornado with top winds of 100 mph, according to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. I traveled 1.34 miles along Route 4, mostly in the valley. It had a maximum width of 550 yards and was on the ground for just three minutes.

As we've seen in photographs and video, the tornado felled or snapped a large number of trees and caused roof damage and damage to solar panels. 

LINCOLN

The Lincoln tornado was actually a little stronger than the one in Woodstock with top winds of 105 mph. Again, that's a high-end EF-1 tornado

But the Lincoln tornado had a much shorter path and a shorter life. It only traveled 0.31 miles and had a path 200 yards wide. This tornado blew through an area of forest before sputtering out in a ravine. 

I suppose it's possible other tornadoes touched down in Vermont Thursday but I'm not aware of any investigations or areas that seem like they were obviously hit by a twister. There was a lot of wind damage, especially in southeast Vermont. 

We know it's unusual to have a tornado in Vermont. It's really odd to have two on the same day, or even the same year. There was another tornado in Williamstown on April 16, so we're up to the three in a year,

That doesn't break any records for the most Vermont twisters in a single year.

  The year 1962 seems to be the biggest twister year in Vermont. Three  tornadoes touched down across northern Vermont on May 20 that year. 

Two unusual morning tornadoes hit Windsor County on July 9, 1962. more tornadoes touched down on July 9, 1962. One of them traveled 16 miles between Chester and Weathersfield, according to the Vermont Weather Book. Another traveled five miles near Springfield, Vermont, then it crossed into New Hampshire and traveled three more miles. 

That said, there is a tendency for tornadoes to be moving east and north out of the Great Plains tornado alley, likely due to climate change. The Northeast has seen an increased number of twisters in recent years and Vermont might be seeing a piece of that. 

Of course, another factor is that some Vermont tornadoes in the past might have been missed. Everybody has smart phones. Everybody is on social media. New of weird storm damage spreads fast nowadays. Some of those reports result in investigations and confirmed tornadoes. 

The National Weather Service will likely release a much more detailed analysis of the tornadoes and the other instances of severe weather Vermont saw on Thursday. That analysis should be out within a few weeks. 

 

Likely Woodstock, Vermont Tornado To Be Investigated Today, More Inclement, But Not Violent Weather Due

Trees ripped apart on a Woodstock, Vermont hillside
after a likely tornado hit on Thursday. 
Photo from WCAX via Facebook

 Thanks to the fact that everyone has a camera and local TV stations are pretty aggressive when it comes to covering rare, violent weather in Vermont, we're now pretty confident that whatever hit Woodstock, Vermont yesterday was probably a tornado. 

Drone video from Henry's Weather Service shows trees snapped off halfway up, and many other trees felled in varying directions, which are telltale signs of a tornado. 

Video obtained from Tiffany LaRocque taken from inside Mountain Creamery in Woodstock shows intense winds and rain on the edge of the tornado. Trees were falling and the parking lot was full of vehicles as people traveling along Route 4 took refuge there as driving conditions became impossible. 

About 100 people were affected by the probably tornado on the western side of town, WPTZ reports. Thankfully, we have no reports of injuries, which is pleasantly surprising, given how much traffic there usually is on Route 4 where the probably tornado crossed. 

The tornado missed the historic central village of Woodstock, which is a world-renowned tourist hub. Initial reports indicate only minor tree damage in the village center. 

Reports are that National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington will head to Woodstock, probably today, to confirm whether this was a tornado.  If that analysis happens, we'll learn how strong the tornado was and how long and wide the path was.

Judging from the drone video, the path of the tornado looked a little longer than most Vermont tornadoes. Twisters in the Green Mountain State tend to touch down and lift almost immediately. 

I'm not sure on the strength of the tornado, but judging from photos and that drone video, I'd say it was an EF-1, which would mean winds of 86 to 110 mph. 

Once the National Weather Service offers a report on the Woodstock storm, I'll write up a new post with the updates.

Heading east from Woodstock, there was additional severe damage. In Quechee, Vermont, a row of large willow trees on a golf course fell. They all went down in the same direction, suggesting straight line wind damage. 

There was also extensive damage in Hartford, Vermont, where a lot of trees fell. 

Nearly 4,000 Vermont homes and businesses were still without power this morning, mostly in southeastern Vermont. Londonderry had 1,100 of those outages, suggesting something nasty rolled through that town yesterday. 

This morning, other trouble spots popped up in northern Vermont, near the Canadian border. The Barton River at Coventry and the Missisquoi river near North Troy were at minor flood stage. Heavy rains yesterday fell atop soils soaked by very heavy rains that hit up there on Sunday. 

We had reports of a lot of street flooding Thursday in Newport and Middlebury. Probably other towns experienced that, too. 

Rainfall was quite heavy in many spots. Burlington had 1.11 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.54 inches. A full report on how much rain fell in specific towns will become available later this morning. 

WHAT'S AHEAD?

Thankfully, we're done with the violent weather at least for awhile, but conditions will be unsettled and wet at times. Northern Vermont in particular is in for some showery weather this weekend. 

The out of season, strong low pressure system that gave Vermont the rough weather yesterday is meandering through Quebec. It's rotating little disturbances through here and will continue to do so through the weekend. 

That means frequent bursts of rain,  especially north. Total rainfall through Sunday night will be near an inch over the northern Green Mountains. In most valley towns north of Route 2,  a half to three quarters of an inch will come down between now and Monday morning.   

The rainfall will taper to a quarter inch in central Vermont and less than a tenth of an inch in far southeast Vermont. A  few garden variety thunderstorms and downpours will probably mix in, so a few towns will get more rain than the rest of Vermont as a result. 

A few daily details: 

Today

Mostly cloudy and breezy with west to southwest winds gusting to 25 or 20 mph. Most of the afternoon showers and garden variety thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be north of Route 2, but some will drift into central Vermont by very late afternoon or the first half of tonight. A few storms might have briefly heavy downpours, but not enough to cause any flooding or anything like that. 

Highs should reach the low and mid 70s in most valleys

Saturday

Probably the worst day of the bunch. Northern areas will see very little sun and frequent showers. Southern valleys will see some sun, but also a risk of a shower. It will be quite cool for the season with highs in the 60s north, with low to mid 70s southern valley floors. 

Hikers should be aware that summits will be wet and cold tomorrow with wind chills in the 40s. If you insist on hiking, it won't be a summertime activity. Dress accordingly. 

Sunday

More showers and garden variety thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 70s, give or take.