Vermont Goes Out Of The Heat (Sort Of) And Into The Smoke

It was already sort of hazy as of 10 a.m. as he "Hazecam" view
from\the University of Vermont shows. Note the it's 
hazier on the right side of the photo. That's to the north
and thicker haze and smoke is coming from that direction
for the rest of today. 

 The worst of the heat wave is waning in Vermont now after many places had three 90 degree days in a row. 

One thing I didn't take into consideration, though, when I squawked Friday morning about how much better the weather will be,was the annoying forest fie smoke that's blowing in,   

Here's what's happening: 

TODAY

As expected, a weak cold front is coming through today, from Quebec It's not an impressive front, not at all. No big whoosh of cool, refreshing air.

 Just a trend toward somewhat cooler air and eventually, by late today or tonight, it will no longer be air you can wear. More like run of the mill low-ish, pretty reasonable  humidity.   

We'll still have highs well into the 80s for most of Vermont today, maybe low 80s far north, near 90 warmest valleys south. As we start the day today, the dreaded dew point will start out nasty, in the upper 60s. But it will gradually decline, with that drier air spreading north to south. 

Isolated thunderstorms or showers could accompany this transition, but it won't be anything widespread or dramatic. Most of the showers and storms should be in southern Vermont. 

The problem is this sorta, kinda cooler air is grabbing some smoke and sending it our way.  Some of it's coming from Colorado and other western states. Another big chunk of smoke is coming from a nasty fire burning a little south of James Bay, Canada. 

So, what was supposed to be somewhat refreshing air will have us choking in smoke. It most likely won't be as bad as some of the worst smoke attacks we've had in recent years, but it will be bad enough. 

Nevertheless, an air quality alert is in effect for the northern half of Vermont now through midnight. The smoke starts to come in as soon as the first hint of somewhat less humid air begins to arrive, so it was starting to get hazy and smoky in northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Satellite photos shows the smoke isn't as thick as some past episodes, but it's staying closer to the ground than many other past smoke attacks. 

SUNDAY

The worst of the smoke should be gone, but it will probably remain rather hazy.  It'll still be a nice day, though there should be some extra afternoon clouds. It will also be somewhat less humid. It'll be very warm again, with highs in the 80s. So, unlike what I said yesterday, it won't be a stellar, perfect summer day like last Sunday. But it will still be plenty nice.

MONDAY-THURSDAY

A mostly dry, very warm period. That disturbance we thought would soak southern Vermont Monday looks like it might be going even further south. So at this point, it's looking like only far southern Vermont will get a little wet.

We'll have a slow increase in heat and humidity as we go from Monday to Thursday. It will never get as hot or steamy as it was over the past three days but hot enough. Highs each day will get well into the 80s with some low 90s appearing Wednesday and Thursday.

It's going to be  dry period, despite the kinda high humidity we'll see. There might be isolated showers or storms from time to time but don't bet on it. You'll need to water gardens and plants and things like that. 

Our next shot at substantial rain doesn't come along until next Friday. 

One More Really Hot Day In Vermont, Then It Gets (Slightly) Better

National Weather Service heat risk map for today 
calls for another day of severe to extreme heat in 
the eastern U.S. Purple shading is the most intense het.

The overnight low early this morning in Burlington, Vermont was 76 degrees, so there wasn't much overnight relief from the heat. 

No relief is forthcoming today, though there is at least a dim light at the end of the heat tunnel More on that in a bit. 

THE HEAT SO FAR

A tiny saving grace is the heat hasn't been quite as intense as expected in Vermont, with daily highs running a couple degrees lower than forecasts for the past couple of days. 

That's a contrast to pretty much everywhere in the eastern United States, where the heat has lived up to advance billing.    Yesterday, in Frederick, Maryland,  where I was visiting, I experienced the hottest weather I've ever been in, with a reading of 102 degrees.

In New York City, Central Park reached 100 degrees Friday, the first time it's gotten that hot since July 18. 2012, when it was also 100. Washington DC reached a record high of 102 degrees Friday. The same high temperature of 102 is predicted in Washington today and tomorrow, making Fourth of July celebrations downright dangerous. 

Here in Vermont, it reached 96 in Burlington Friday, short of the predicted peak of 100 degrees.

Montpelier reached 90, hot enough to tie the record high for the date.

So this heat wave hasn't turned out to be the historic Vermont heat wave some of us expected.  It's still hot and very humid. Dangerously so. That Vermont has been falling slightly short of predicted high temperatures doesn't reduce the risk.  The longer a heat wave goes on, the worse it is on the human body. We're on day three today, so those that are vulnerable to the heat are having their worst day yet.

Today is a perfect day to kidnap your elderly or ill neighbors and take them to a cool place. 

Thunderstorms have been harassing Vermonters, too. Friday wasn't as wild as Thursday. But some pretty good, non-severe thunderstorms blew through parts of central Vermont in the evening. The National Weather Service in South Burlington also issued a special weather statement for  a strong storm that clipped the Northeast Kingdom, but that storm quickly dissipated.

Let's get into the specifics of what's coming next. 

TODAY:

It will be almost as hot as yesterday. It really won't feel any different than yesterday. Most of the state will be in the low 90s, with mid 90s for highs in the Banana Belt hot valleys. 

Once again, because of the heat and the humidity, thunderstorms are a risk. I don't think they'll be particularly widespread or severe. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the best chance of strong storms being south and west of Interstate 89 today. In that location there's a marginal, (level one out of five risk)  for storms today. 

More storms and showers should be scattered about tonight ahead of a super weak cold front heading toward us. It will still be a horribly stuffy night.

SATURDAY

Some relief begins. The risk of showers and storms diminishes to nothing north during the morning, and that trend will drift southward during the day. More importantly, you'll start to notice a change in the air during the afternoon and evening. Especially north. It won't turn much less humid, but it will feel a little better. 

Dew points, a measure of how humid it feels out there. will start out near 70 in the morning, which is terribly steamy. By evening, the dew point will be in the OK but not great low 60s.

SUNDAY

The dew points will continue to drift a little lower by Saturday night and Sunday.  That means dawn will break Sunday with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 60, which will feel much better. 

Sunday should be a classic Vermont summer day, much like last Sunday was. That means highs in the 80s, a little warmer than average. Humidity will be reasonable. 

NEXT WEEK

Monday morning will start off cool and dry, with lows in the 50s to near 60, so pretty nice. The warmth and the humidity will creep up again. Some sort of disturbance looks like it will pass  through on Monday. Early indications suggest some heavy rain might fall on southern Vermont with much lighter stuff up north. 

It's an iffy little system, though, so we'll probable be some adjustments to the forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday, and probably Thursday  turn really warm and humid again, but not as bad as today. Still, warmer spots could touch 90 again midweek. 

Thursday Afternoon Update: Not As Hot As Forecast, But Still Ridiculous: Storm Chances Iffy, Brief Tumble In Humidity Sunday?

Thunderstorms just beginning to erupt in the
Champlain Valley on Wednesday. They quickly grew
to severe levels. A much more iffy proposition for
storms this evening after a very hot day, but they
are still possible, 

As of 4 p.m. today, Burlington was up to 95 degrees, so the city won't make it up to that promised 100 degrees. It might go up a couple more degrees, but we won't make it to 100. Not a bummer.

The heat index in Burlington at 4 p.m., though, was 101, due to the humidity. The highest actual temperature I've so far today in Vermont is 96 in Springfield. 

By the way, I'm not in Vermont this afternoon, so I can say how jealous I am of the "cool" weather today up in Vermont. As I write this in Frederick, Maryland, it is 100.4 degrees, so I can say that's the hottest outdoor temperature I have ever experienced. Thu

The heat index here is 109. The actual temperature in Frederick is forecast to top out at 101 degrees both today and tomorrow, 

Back home in Vermont there are a few new glimmers of hope. 

First of all is thunderstorms potential. Given the heat and humidity, storms could pop up at any time or even become severe. But fingers crossed it does not look like severe thunderstorms will be as bad or widespread as they were yesterday. 

There were no storms brewing anywhere near Vermont as of 3 p.m. There was some stuff developing a little southwest of Ottawa. That might eventually move this way or set off some new storms here in Vermont this evening or overnight, but we can't be sure. 

The computer models haven't done a great job in the past few days predicting when, where and how much in terms of thunderstorms. That said, they don't give Vermont much in the way of lightning and thunder today and tomorrow. But I'm still suspicious of those storms near Ottawa.
We shall see!

Some more glimmers of hope for those of you who don't like the heat. And they are just glimmers.

Friday

It will be ever so slightly cooler tomorrow, we think .But still hot with highs at least 90 in most places. Also, the chances of thunderstorms are lower, but still there.  

Saturday, A few more showers, but not a washout. Cooler with highs in the 80s. Maybe a 90 far southeast.

Sunday. Here's the best news yet. The air coming in will be a little drier than first thought. It will still be in the 80s for highs, but the dew point should fall to near 60. Maybe even upper 50s in some spots. That bodes well for Sunday night. If this forecast comes true, we'll have refreshing governing lows in the 55 to 62 degree range. 

It still looks like it will stay quite warm next week. And on the warm and somewhat humid side, too. 

Long range forecasts could change, but for now, it looks like our best shot for  whoosh of truly cool, dry  air would come along a week from Saturday. 

Hot Vermont Day Led To Wild Night; Heat Is Back In Force Today

Lightning detector map from 10:15 last evening. 
White spots are new lightning strikes, red are older
The first line of storms is visible in eastern Vermont
and New Hampshire, with the second line in New York
Note that bright white area in northeast New York
That's the storm that gave the strobe light 
lightning show to northwest Vermont after 10 last night. 

First it was the heat, then the storms. 

It did get into them 90s for most of the area yesterday, but the heat underperformed slightly. We'll take anything we can get. For instance, Burlington got to 93, compared to a forecast high of 96

Then came the storms, which over-performed. 

Storms 

Things got wild in the late afternoon and evening. Severe storms approached from New York in the late afternoon, but faded right before they got to Vermont. Phew!

Not so fast. Storms exploded over the Champlain Valley and almost immediately become severe. That line of severe storms passed across all of northern and central Vermont, leaving a trail of damaged trees and power lines behind.  

The damage continued all the way east into New Hampshire. Here in the Green Mountain State, it  looks like Underhill/Cambridge was one of the hardest hit areas, with oodles of trees knocked down. Westford and Essex were also hard hit. 

Radar imagery showed what appeared to be 70 mph winds in the area.

But we were not done yet, nosiree! Another line of severe storms developed in New York and this one did not fade away.  There wasn't nearly as much damage this time, but what a light show! A storm that plowed into northwest Vermont between Burlington and St. Albans was basically a strobe light show, the lightning was so frequent. An early Fourth of July present from Ma Nature, apparently. 

The heat

We're only up to July 2, and we've already had five days this year that were at least 90 with more on the way as measured in Burlington 

Roughly half (60 of the past 127 years) have had fewer 90 degree days in an entire summer than what we've experienced so far this year.  It looks like we have at least two more 90 degree days coming up. 

Today will be the worst, with Friday a close second.

TODAY

The National Weather Service is back to forecasting a 100 degrees, which would only be the fifth time it  has gotten that hot in Burlington. Worse, with the humidity, the heat index could go as high as - gasp - 114 degrees. If that happens, it would be the worst heat index on record in Burlington, though those records only go back to 1947.

Needless to say, the extreme heat warning is still in effect across the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys and the lowlands of southwest Vermont. Elsewhere, the heat advisory for a "feels like" temperature of 100 to 105 is expected. 

Although thunderstorm chances are still there, those chances are a little lower than they were yesterday. But, with this extreme heat and humidity, they could pop up at any time and become strong. Today, the best chances of storms - severe or not - are closer to the Canadian border. But they could happen anywhere. 

FRIDAY

After another very stuffy night that won't give us much relief from the heat, temperatures will soar again. Hotter banana belt valleys, i.e. Champlain and Lower Connecticut, would probably make it into the mid 90s. Elsewhere, low 90s should do it most other places with the heat warnings and advisories still in place.

There's another chance of scattered storms in the afternoon and evening. Most of us won't get wet, but some of us will.

FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY

A slightly better chance of storms and showers Friday night and Saturday morning as the poorest excuse for a cold front I've ever seen comes into the picture. Highs should "only" be within a few degrees either side of 90 on Saturday. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Allegedly cooler, but you'll barely notice. Daily highs Sunday through Wednesday look to be well up in the 80s to near 90.  Lows will be in the 60s, so pretty stuffy nights will continue. 

If you've been keeping an eye out on your elderly neighbors, relatives and friends, you'll need to keep doing that next week. The effects of heat are cumulative. If people manage to get through today, tomorrow and Saturday, they still face elevated temperatures during the first half of the week.  Their systems will have been weakened by the intense heat, so relatively hot weather will still matter.

 

Late Wednesday Afternoon Update: Severe Storm Watch Western Vermont Until 11 PM; Heat To Intensify Tomorrow

National Weather Service radar showed severe storms
near Massena, New York at 5:45 p.m today. More storms
were lurking in the general area of Ottawa, If those
storms hold together or new ones form, they could
create damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch
is in effect for western Vermont until 11 pm 

 A severe thunderstorm watch is now in effect for western Vermont and New York until 11 pm, tonight. 

In Vermont, the watch covers basically everywhere west of the Green Mountains.

There's been a nasty cluster of storms in southeast Ontario and extreme southwest Quebec much of this afternoon. 

By late afternoon, they were starting to move east and southeast. It's unclear how far east they'll make it. But there's enough of a threat to trigger the storm watch. 

As of 5:30 p.m., it looks dark looking northwest from Vermont's Champlain Valley. That didn't represent an immediate threat. It was the anvil top and shadow of the severe storms near Massena, New York that were making things darker.  However, in this hot, humid environments, storms could form under this anvil, and become severe. If they don't, the anvil will just produce at most light rain. 

The storms near and approaching New York's St. Lawrence Valley could eventually make it to the Champlain Valley with powerful winds later this evening. Not a guarantee yet, but keep your eyes out!  

Judging from satellite photos, it loos storm well up into Ontario,  which is where the storms ar coming from So it could be a rather stormy night here in Vermont if they hold together. 

The heat today didn't quite make it to forecast levels, at least in the Champlain Valley. Preliminary data indicates Burlington made it to 93 degrees, which was three degrees cooler than forecast. 

That doesn't necessarily mean tomorrow will be cooler than forecast. But I did notice the National Weather Service back away slightly from that previous forecast of 100 degrees. 

Have a way to get weather warnings this evening and tonight, just in case. You might want to turn off your "Do Not Disturb" feature on your phone so you can get warnings if they are issued overnight. 

Stay cool, my friends! 

Vermont June In Vermont Was Wet And Warm, Stormy And Sunny

The highlight of Vermont's warm, wet June was a pair
of tornadoes that hit the state on June 18. This is a
photo of tree damage in Woodstock from 
one of the tornadoes, 

The numbers are in for what the climate was like in June, and as you'd expect, almost all of us experienced  a warm and wet June. 

In Burlington it was both the 15th warmest and 15th wettest June out of the past 135 years or so. The actual mean temperature in Burlington for June was 69.1 degrees.

That came in at only 1.6 degrees above normal, which you'd think wouldn't qualify the month at being 15th warmest.  But, as I remind you practically every month, this is the "new normal." It's based on the average of 1990 to 2020 when climate change had already made things around here warmer than the 20th century average. 

I imagine in several decades, the month we just had would be considered chilly 

The pattern in Burlington was repeated across the state, except the extreme southwest, where average temperatures for June, 2026 were close to average. 

However, most other weather stations that I checked were roughly between one and two degrees warmer than average.

Much of the state was wet, too. Burlington's 5.56 inches was 1.4 inches above average. As we get into the summer months, precipitation around the state gets much more variable. And so it was in June. Montpelier June total was 4.26 inches, just a few hundredths of an inch above normal.

It was both a pleasant month, as we got our fair share of sunny, comfortable days. But it was also stormy.  The highlight were the two tornadoes that hit Vermont on June 18. One was in a remote part of Lincoln, but the other was in a fairly busy spot along Route 4 in Woodstock. Given that the Woodstock tornado had wind speeds up to 100 mph, it's a very pleasant surprise that motorists along Route 4 or in nearby buildings weren't hurt. 

Other events included a supercell that caused damage in northwest and central Rutland County on June 26.

Also, on June 11, some flash flooding with road damage was reported in Hardwick and Wolcott.

For July, we already know it's starting out wicked hot, so it seems chances are it will be a hot July. NOAA is leaning just slightly toward giving us a warmer than normal July here in Vermont. If that's right, maybe soe cool weather late in the month will offset the current terrible heat. It's worth dreaming. 

NOAA also is slightly leaning toward a wetter than average July. We shall see!

Potentially Historic Vermont Heat Wave Now Underway. But We Escaped Severe Weather - So Far

Since it's so hot, let's do winter scenes. This is in
Burlington, Vermont's Intervale in December, 2023

Well, the bright side is Vermont missed out on the severe thunderstorms last night. We were worried some intense storms would roll down on us from Ontario and Quebec. They missed Vermont and went mostly through central New York yesterday and last night. 

They just missed the southwest corner of Vermont. Instead, we got a few non-severe showers and storms. 

But, I'm burying the lede of course. The hot weather is here, and it could be historic. (No. "lede" is not spelled incorrectly. It's journalism speak for the first sentence of an article). 

And that first sentence is hot. Burlington is now forecast to reach 100 degrees tomorrow. If that happens, it will only be the fifth time since the late 1800s that has happened. 

The clouds and showers yesterday held temperatures down. The humidity certainly soared, but the relatively coolness of last evening means we haven't really felt the effects of the heat. 

Until this morning. Temperatures are rocketing up and it should be miserable by afternoon. Here's the usual daily forecast rundown for this very unusual hot weather

TODAY

We start the day with a lot of sun, so now the the heat dome is in place, temperatures should rocket up. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a high of 96 in Burlington today, which would tie the record set in 1911 and 2018.

It'll be in the 90s pretty much everywhere in Vermont today. That extreme heat warning stays in effect through Friday evening for the Champlain Valley, lowlands of southwest Vermont and the lower Connecticut River Valley. Those areas can expect heat indexes today, tomorrow and Friday to reach 105 degrees or even a little more. 

The rest of Vermont is under a heat advisory. That's because those areas might not quite meet the criteria  for an extreme heat warning as the heat index there would be a little under 105 degrees.

It doesn't really matter whether you're under an extreme heat warning or a heat advisory. It'll be very dangerous to do physical work outside today. And now's the time to start keeping tabs on heat-vulnerable people to make sure they're OK. 

The tired saying, "It's not the heat, it's the humidity" is partially true. It's the heat and the humidity. The dew point, a measure of how humid it feels, should be in the mid-70s in much of Vermont today. That's incredibly muggy and about as steamy as it could possibly get in Vermont. 

The next question is thunderstorms. I did see more of them lurking way up to the northwest of Montreal this morning. Those could come down and cause some trouble today. The heat and humidity could also cause sudden pop up storms around Vermont. I already saw a couple little ones appear out of nowhere a little after 8 a.m. today in northern New York. 

The glimmer of good news is if any form by afternoon, they might keep temperatures from rising quite as high as the forecasts indicate. 

The bad news is with all this heat and humidity around, something that starts as a small shower could blossom into a big, bad thunderstorm with damaging winds and torrential downpours almost within minutes. 

Keep your eye to the sky today, hopefully through a window in an air conditioned building. By the way, during heat waves like this, the threat of strong storms overnight doesn't go away like it usually does.  Big bad storms will be less likely tonight, but still possible. 

TOMORROW

The heat peaks. As noted, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 100 in Burlington tomorrow. The all time record high in Burlington is 101 degrees on August 11, 1944. It's been 100 degrees on July 3, 1911, June 19, 1995 and July 14, 1995. (Yeah, 1995 was a damn hot summer).

The all time hottest temperature in Vermont is an oldie, 105 degrees in Vernon, July 4, 1911.  I've been thinking that record is vulnerable in this age of climate change. I think a new statewide record will be established within the next few years. I don't think this heat wave will be the one to do it, but you never know. 

Still, the fact that tomorrow might well be Vermont's hottest day in 31 years is pretty impressive. 

Since the extreme heat and humidity will still be around, we do have to watch the possibility of strong or severe thunderstorms again. Like today, they will be hit and miss, but if you get hit by one, you'll know it. 

FRIDAY

It turns colder! The expected high in Burlington is 96 degrees. Yeah, still miserable. It'll get into the 90s across almost all the state again and the humidity will remain ridiculous. The effects of heat waves are cumulative We'll be in the third day of it by Friday, so those who are vulnerable to the heat will be really suffering by then .

If you know anyone without air conditioning who is elderly or has health problems, for gawd's sake check on them. And continue to "kidnap" them and bring them to fun, but air conditioned places. 

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

The heat wave ends, sort of, with a whimper. Starting Saturday or Sunday and continuing through the first half of next week afternoon highs will stop reaching the 90s and instead get well into the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. It will still be kind of humid. 

Since we all will have gone through a big, big heat wave, the moderately hot and fairly humid air will still have an effect on us. Continue making sure people are OK, because even typical summer weather can cause trouble after an intense heat wave 

As far as rain and storms go, forecasts beyond Saturday are all over the place, so flip a coin or something. We'll know more as we get closer to the weekend and next week.