A Record El Nino Has Ramped Up, So Expect A Wild Weather Ride Over The Next Year Or So

An image from August shows far warmer than normal
ocean waters in the eastern Pacific off the west coast
of South America as El Nino takes hold. Since 
August, that water has gotten even hotter. 

Climate change has made the world's weather more extreme: Worse storms, worse floods, worse droughts, weirder weather days.  

Now El Nino is starting to make everything worse. 

El Nino is now in full force,. Expect things to become especially wild for at least several months, well into next year.  Since this is uncharted territory with a record El Nino atop climate change, who knows how this will sugar off?

A statement released last week by the World Meteorological Organization  statement seems ominous: 

"'El Nino is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,' said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres."

The WMO added: 

"El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coning months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, according to a new update."

But where? And how bad?

We don't know, exactly

It won't be armageddon, as some on social media breathlessly tell us.  Many of us will be fine, just marveling at the weird, sometimes scary weather. I don't want to minimize the fact that it will be tragic for some of us. 

And it will be expensive. Likely for all of us. Exactly what we end up with is still an open question, though we can forecast some of the broad brush effects. 

WHAT EL NINO IS DOING

At first, it might seem like El Nino is doing some of us a favor. As mentioned in a previous post, the Atlantic hurricane season so far is as lame as can be. El Nino is creating strong upper level winds over the tropical Atlantic, killing off any nascent tropical storms that want to form. 

A tropical storm or hurricane could still form between now and November, but we won't have many such storms. 

The eastern Pacific ocean is another story. The eastern Pacific Ocean is alive with hurricanes. One of them, Lowell, sideswiped Hawaii earlier this week, causing extensive damage. It's the second time a hurricane had trashed parts of Hawaii.  

El Nino pushes the warmest Pacific waters moved away from Asia and toward South America. The water becomes relatively cooler near Asia and Australia. Cooler water means less evaporation. And fewer showers and thunderstorms. Droughts result in southeast Asia and Australia. Destructive wildfires tend to break out in Indonesia and Australia. 

It also tends to get dry in southern Africa, sub-Sahara Africa and Brazil during El Ninos. Wet areas are a little less certain, although the southern United States tend to get pretty wet and stormy, even including tornado outbreaks  during the winter months of an El Nino.

NOAA is also telling us it will be a warmer than average winter along the northern tier of the United States, from the Pacific Northwest to New England, which is typical of an El Nino.

 There's a bunch of wildcards, though. Other factors could bend the winter jet stream, at times defying the will of El Nino

"A strong El Nino can tilt the odds toward certain temperature and precipitation patterns across different parts of the U.S., but it doesn't determine exactly how every storm, or even the entire winter, will play out," said Crystal Egger, a meteorologist and president of Monarch Weather Consulting.

That uncertainty applies to most other places in the world. 

COSTS/EFFECTS OF EL NINO

Whatever happens, the extreme weather with an El Nino can be expensive. 

The Super El Nino could lead to immediate global financial losses of nearly $1 trillion dollars in 2027. and up to $7.2 trillion over the ensuing six years, according to a September 8 report from Oxford Economics    As reported in supplychaiinbrai.com:

"Following extreme weather disruptions, both public and private sector funds are diverted toward reparations," Oxford Economics explain."While necessary, this expenditure restores lost production capacity rather than expanding it, which can crowed out investment in infrastructure upgrades, technology, education, R&D and so on."

The cost comes from everywhere, not just the physical damage. As supplychainbrain.com notes, these weather and climate disasters make it harder and more expensive to borrow money. Homeowners and businesses fall behind on loans. Damaged or devalued property becomes poorer collateral. 

Insurance covers some losses, but those disaster make premiums more expensive and make coverage harder to find. 

It's always difficult to calculate the cost of an event that hasn't really happened yet. So take the above figures with a grain of salt. Just know that every El Nina is expensive. This one will probably be more expensive than all the others. 

Given all the unknowns, it's hard to prepare for El Nino, but people - and governments are trying anyway.

In Great Britain, residents have been urged to have enough food and water stored at home to survive a few days without power or water services

British Environmental Secretary Angela Eagle said El Nino could create ever more extreme storms than the already big storms the UK has seen in recent years. 

"If you've got a store of a bit of food that can keep you going for awhile before the emergency services can get to you,  you're going to be a lot better off than if you haven't. So some of it is that kind of preparation for just being a little more resilient," Eagle said.

Beyond that, we're not sure what will happen. There's a lot of hysterics about this El Nino. Some of it is justified.  To be blunt, people will die, crops will fail, people will go hungry. 

Until now, the strongest El Nino known to have occurred hit in 1877. Washington Post picks up the story: 

"The (1877 El Nino) fueled conditions that led to a global famine which killed more than 50 million people across India, China, Brazil and elsewhere. That's 3 to 4 percent of the estimated global population at the time, equal to at least 250 million people if it happened today."

Could it happen again?

The world is much warmer than it was in 1877, thanks to climate change. So the effects of the 2026-27 El Nino would be more extreme than the world saw 150 years. 

On the other hand, unlike in 1877, we know El Nino is coming. We have ways to prepare for droughts and extreme storms. Drought-prone areas can switch to dry tolerant crops. Resourced can be re-directed in advance to combat wildfires.  Residents of the American South can gird for flooding and severe storms this winter.

We won't be able to tie every big storm, flood or dry spell that we'll see in the coming months directly to El Nino. The only thing we can expect is a wild weather ride ov er the winter. 

Buckle your seat belts! 

Vermont Weather To Bounce Around, Cool To Muggy To Warm To Cool; Some Needed Rain Thrown In

After a little welcome morning rain in St. Albans, skies
at least partly cleared in the afternoon. We ended up
with a pleasant afternoon with a  pretty skies. 

As expected, the rain in northern Vermont faded quickly as it headed south, amounting to nothing south of Route 2.  

Right near the Canadian border, the rain was pretty decent - at or above a quarter inch. Derby Line had a half inch, Swanton just a smidge under a third of an inch. 

Here in St. Albans had 0.21 inches, and that reduced to 0.02 for a total in Burlington. Nothing in places like Montpelier and Rutland. 

After the morning clouds and cool air, it turned into a nice afternoon, especially in northern Vermont. 

The changes keep coming. 

This morning, temperatures in North Country, ranging from frost in northern Maine to muggy low 70s in western New York. In Vermont, 5 a.m. temperatures ranged from 43 in Lyndonville and 63 in Rutland. 

Since weather usually comes from the west, you know what's going to happen. The muggy air will win out. At least briefly. 

Here's what happens next:

TODAY

The clouds will increase, and south winds will increase and the humidity will increase. By this evening, the air will definitely have a muggy feel.

Rain will move in from the west. There could be some very light showers at any time today, but the rain will begin in earnest mid to late afternoon, spreading west to east. Before the rain gets here, we should get into the low and mid 70s, with sone upper 60s northeast.

It'll be a fairly steady light to at times to moderate rain at times, then tonight it will turn into a showery type thing, typical of what you'd expect in humid air. There could be some brief downpours and a rumble or two of thunder overnight. 

It'll be a somewhat sticky, uncomfortable night for sleeping, too. One of the last of this year. Maybe even the last, if we're lucky. 

If we get lucky, current forecasts will pan out and we'll get a needed wetting. Total rainfall looks to be around a half inch to an inch in central and northern Vermont. Maybe a little less than that in the immediate Champlain Valley, maybe a little more than that in the Green Mountains. The lower Connecticut River Valley, from around Springfield south, might only get 0.1 to 0.25 inches. 

As always with this type of event, there will be some local surprises with some spots getting more than forecast, and some places getting a little less. Luck of the draw, you understand. 

THURSDAY

Another changeable day. Abrupt, breezy changes are another sign of fall, even though tomorrow will not at all feel like autumn. 

Once we get into the fall, storm systems get stronger. Which means winds get stronger, temperature and humidity trends get stronger. And they happen over shorter periods of time. 

We start the day with the overnight rain gone already. It'll be a humid morning, and if you're exercising out in the early morning sun, you really will sweat it through. 

But winds will pick up from the west and eventually northwest. You'll feel the humidity gradually fade away during the day. By mid to late afternoon, it should actually start to feel refreshing amid those gusty breezes.

It will be warm, though. We'll get into the 70s, with a couple 80s poking out in the lower Connecticut Valley and maybe the Champlain Valley. All under at least partly sunny skies. 

FRIDAY

Back to traditional September, for a little while anyway. A cool, possibly foggy early morning will yield a generally sunny, cool afternoon. Temperatures should peak within a few degrees either side of 70 degrees. 

SATURDAY

Another nice one. It'll start chilly, with lows in the 40s. The usual September dense fog will shroud the river valleys. Sunshine will boost temperatures well into the 70s. 

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY

Changeable, but it's a little hard to give a firm forecast this far in advance. It looks like Sunday could start to turn more humid. Perhaps after a break on Monday, the humidity could briefly return Tuesday. There's chances of showers amidst all this, but we don't know how much rain that might involve. 

Climate Central Study: Autumns In U.S. Getting Warmer, Which Shouldn't Be A Surprise

A warm autumn day in my backyard. Photo was taken
on October 24, 2024. In past decades, the trees would
have been almost completely leafless by 
that time of year. 

Autumn is the new summer.  

That's an exaggeration, of course, but those brisk autumn breezes are fading under the weight of climate change. Summer weather is lingering longer across the United States. 

Climate Central has the receipts.

According to their latest report, autumn warmed in 98 percent of 245 major U.S cities analyzed, using data  from 1970 to 2025. The average increase in fall temperatures since 1970 is 2.9 degrees. 

The southwestern United States, northern Rockies an the Plains have warmed up the most. 

The fastest warming cities are Reno, Nevada (7.9 degree); El Paso, Texas (6.9 degrees)' Las Vegas (6.3 degrees); Tyler, Texas (6 degrees) and Tucson, (5.9 degrees)

Demonstrating the waning influence of natural variability, Climate Central found only three cities actually cooled a little bit in the autumn between 1970 and 2025.  But those cities barely got chillier, as they were only 0.2 degrees F cooler than they used to be.   

Besides climate change, a particular location's temperatures can be affected by El Nino and La Nina, an urban heat island effect, weather station relocations and other factors. 

For our Vermont readers, Burlington is in Climate Central's data set. The city warmed up by 5.2 degrees during the fall, nearly twice the national rate of warming. 

Climate Central's data looked at meteorological fall, which is the time period between September 1 and November 30. The figures come from open source data from NOAA. 

A warm fall up here in Vermont might seem nice. And it can be. Temperatures in the 70s in late October and early November are quite nice, especially since that time of year has a blustery reputation. But warm autumn weather can cause its share of problems.

Especially early in the season, lingering heat can be dangerous. For instance, in Kansas City this time of year, normal high temperatures are still summer like - in the low 80s. But each day during the first week of this month was in the 90s, with insufferable overnight lows in the 70s  

Lately, in recent years, horrible heat and humidity have lingered well into the autumn across large swaths of the nation. Including the north. 

Here in Vermont, it was 86 degrees in Burlington on October 5 last year. The year before that, temperatures were in the upper 70s to near 80 on Halloween. In the past, it's been known to snow here when trick or treaters roam the streets of the Green Mountain State. Not any more, apparently. 

Climate Central lists other effects of hot autumn. Among them: 

Kids go back to school in the fall. Many schools, especially in the northern half of the U.S.,  have no or inadequate air conditioning, making it a challenge for both learning and student health. And the teachers are suffering, too. 

Hot, dry autumns extend the wildfire season, especially in the western United States. The worst case scenario was probably the Paradise, California fire on November 8, 2018. The fire killed 85 people, making it the deadliest wildfire that nation has seen in the past 100 years. The wildfire destroyed 18,000 structures, including 9,000 homes.  

By early November, the first early rains should have hit that part of California. But it was late, setting the stage for the calamity. 

Back here in Vermont, fall foliage season is coming very soon.  Eventually, climate change could ruin the magic, and the tourism dollars that come with it. So far, I see no evidence the brilliance of the season is waning, but it has been generally getting later. In the warmer Champlain Valley, you now have to wait until the second half of October to see peak foliage. 

The growing season is lasting longer, which is great for farmers and gardeners. But people with allergies suffer as ragweed and other such plants don't die so early. Also, ticks, mosquitoes, and other bugs last longer into the fall.  

A Surprisingly Wet Morning North, But Vermont Weather Should Improve This Afternoon

Weather radar showed a solid band of rain across 
northern Vermont as of 8 a.m. this morning. A weak 
cold front was creating a little more rain than
expected, but some sunshine should break out later today

We knew a weak cold front would drift into northern Vermont this morning, with clouds and maybe a few sprinkles.  

However, the rain in the north was more widespread this morning than we thought. Which is a good thing. We needed the rain. 

At 8 a.m., weather radar showed widespread, mostly light rain covered Vermont north of Route 2. There were some moderately heavy spots of rain in this mass of sprinkles, drizzles and small raindrops.  

Despite continued forecasts for only a couple hundredths of an inch of rain, it looks a few lucky devils will get between a tenth and a quarter inch of rain.  Not huge, but we'll take it. Especially where some decent wetting hit the drought area in the Northeast Kingdom. 

The cold front, and the rain was slipping southward as of 8 a.m., so the rain will move south as well. It'll start to break up as it heads south, as the cold front itself is falling apart, too.  The showers in northern Vermont will gradually become more and more scattered and fade. The sun should come out, too, mixed with lingering clouds. 

Southern Vermont won't get any rain at all out of this.  They will have just a partly sunny day. Maybe an isolated shower in the mountains. Region-wide, highs will reach the 70s. 

We do have some more rain coming this week, too.

WEDNESDAY

The next, somewhat more powerful weather system will start to affect us.  We'll see increasing clouds, increasing south winds, increasing humidity, and eventually, increasing chances of showers. Especially north. 

Highs should reach the 70s again. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT

I'm hoping we don't have another rainy forecast bust, like last week. On September 2, we expected a statewide, soaking nighttime rain. Instead, the only substantial rain hit the far north. This time, meteorologists expect the rain to concentrate itself in the north again, but a little rain should hit the far south, too. We hope. 

In any event, current forecasts call for a decent half inch to an inch of rain in the northern half of Vermont, a quarter to half inch in central Vermont, and less than a tenth of an inch in the far southeast. 

It'll be a muggy night, too as a squirt of humid air will try to sneak in. Very briefly. This weather system is blowing through quickly, so the hint of summer won't last all that long.

THURSDAY

Lingering morning showers will taper off, revealing a partly sunny, breezy, warm day. The morning humidity will fade, leading to fresher, afternoon air.  Highs should hit 80 degrees or so, probably one of the last such days of the year.  At most, we'll only have a handful of days that hit 80 before autumn really takes hold.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Delightful weather, the kind Vermont in September is famous for.  Daytimes will feature sunshine and highs in the 70s, with Saturday being the slightly warmer of the two days. 

Overnights will be cool, with lows in the 40s for most of us. As usual for this time of year, patchy dense fog will envelope river valleys early in the mornings. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

We might eke out another nice day Sunday, and then the next system will return a chance of showers early next week.  

Hurricanes Harassing Hawaii, California, East Coast Remarkably Storm-Free

Hurricane Lowell in the Pacific Ocean on Monday. Hawaii
is hidden beneath the clouds. 

For the second time within a month, a hurricane is threatening Hawaii. 

Hurricane Lowell has taken its northward turn, but it has been heading a little east of north. That means the Hawaiian Island will have more trouble than originally thought.  

The hurricanes expected path has shifted about 75 miles east since Sunday morning. Hurricane Lowell is expected to pass within 75 miles of Kauai as a category 2 storm tonight and tomorrow. 

It still looks like most of the Hawaiian Islands will be spared hurricane force winds, though a hurricane warning is in effect for the islands of Kauai and Nihau. Winds could gust to 85 mph later today and tonight, and 10 to 15 inches should drown the western islands. 

But torrential rains and tropical storm force winds could hit the entire island chain while the storm passes by. 

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Oahu, which includes the city of Honolulu. Kauai and Niihau could receive six to 10 inches of rain with local amounts of 14 inches. Normal September precipitation the islands is between two to four inches. So flooding is inevitable.   

The rest of the island chain can expect four to eight inches of rain. Which is more than enough to cause flooding and landslides. Especially after other recent storms on the island. 

The islands are also going to be battered by huge waves and storm surges.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency for the entire state. The Hawaii National Guard  has been activated. 

All this comes less than a month after Hurricane Lala sideswept Hawaii, causing enormous flood and mudslides especially on the Big Island. One spot on the Big Island had 43.54 inches of rain as the hurricane passed by just to south of Hawaii.

HURRICANE MARIE

Meanwhile, Hurricane Marie moved north to northwest out in the Pacific Ocean, far to the southwest of California. By today, it was over cooler water, and it had weakened to a tropical storm. 

Still, it was able to last longer than most hurricanes that get that far north, due to oddly warm water. The storm is throwing immense waves at southern California, 

Some waves on south facing California beaches reached ten feet high. Video showed waves smashing into seaside homes and condos, flooding garages and some lower floors. Parking lots were inundated. 

The National Hurricane Center said that dangerous surf conditions would continue today and tomorrow..

Moisture streaming off of Marie caused some unseasonable showers in southern California. It's also unusually humid in southern California because of the moisture from Marie, and because offshore waters are unusually warm. Heat advisories are in effect through Thursday as a result.

The humid air might also prompt tropical-like thunderstorms, which are exceptionally rare for southern California. 

 Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Ocean, which should be busy with tropical storms and/or hurricanes now, is still strangely quiet at the peak of the normal season. The National Hurricane Center says no tropical storms are expected over the next seven days.  

Another Sign Of Autumn This Morning, Then Quick Blip Of Humidity, Rain

Henry the Weather Dog at the dog park in
St. Albans, Yesterday. The sun was out at
the moment this photo was taken, but
under clouds and with gusty north winds
it actually felt chilly at times. Autumn
is definitely showing itself. 

For the first time since maybe early June, I felt chilly for awhile Sunday afternoon.   

The highlight of the day for Henry the Weather Dog is a trip to the dog park here in St. Albans. I brought him there in my usual summer uniform: Shorts, a t-shirt, sneakers. 

It was 70 degrees out at best. Warm enough for that outfit. But the sun occasionally disappeared behind large, poofy clouds, so that cooled the air occasionally.  The wind also blows hard at the dog park, as it's funneled between Hard'ack Hill to the west and French Hill to the east. 

The result: I felt chilly. 

I'm not whining. It's not as if I was dying of hypothermia. Still, I took my goosebumps as a sign we are sinking deeper into autumn. 

And it was cool this morning too. It was 50 degrees in Banana-Belt Burlington this morning. It got down to 41 in Bennington and 42 in Morrisville and Lyndonville. 

The arrival of autumn comes in waves, the cool air interspersed with periods of warmer, even summery weather. So the vaguely nippy air we just had will relax into warmth. Let's get into the details.

TODAY

Temperatures have started rocketing upward and will peak well into the 70s this afternoon.  Maybe close to 80 in the warmest valleys. Henry's trip to the dog park today will not result in any shivers today. Sunshine will reign supreme. Get outside and enjoy!

TUESDAY

An extremely weak cold front should drift down from Quebec early in the morning. It'll probably bring a band of clouds. Maybe even a widely scattered light shower or sprinkle in the north. But the sun should partially make an appearance in the afternoon. It'll be a couple degrees cooler than today, but still in the 70s

WEDNESDAY

The next weather system will start to come at us from the west. South winds will pick up, and those south winds will pick up some humidity from the Gulf of Mexico and throw it at us. It'll start to feel sticky, and we'll have a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. 

A brief spell of very humid air will help blossom a period of rain, maybe briefly heavy overnight Wednesday/Thursday. There could even be a downpour or two. But the rain will rocket through here so fast Wednesday night it won't have a chance to give us all that much. 

We might see over a half inch of rain in northern Vermont, maybe a quarter to a half in central Vermont and the Champlain Valley, and less than a quarter inch far southeast. Of course, there might be adjustments to the forecast.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY

September in Vermont is famous for its spells of delightful weather. Sunshine, low humidity. With few springtime gnats or mosquitoes buzzing around and no mud underfoot. 

We might have a couple lingering showers Thursday, especially in the morning. Humidity will probably linger in the morning, too, but the air should start to feel more fresh in the afternoon. It'll be warm, as it could get up to 80 degrees or so. Not near any records by any stretch of the imagination, but a little warm for September. 

As it looks now, Friday and Saturday look delightful. Sunshine, maybe a few puffy afternoon clouds, with afternoon highs in the 70s. Both mornings will feature dense fog in the river valleys. That's also classic September weather. 

It's possible some light showers come back into the picture later on Sunday, but we might well squeak out another nice day.  

The United Nations Has Finally Given Up On Its Tenuous Hold On Climate Optimism

The United Nations has finally admitted that the goal of
keeping the world from becoming 1.5 degrees warmer
than the 18 century average. 

The famous 1.5 degree Celsius climate change goal is officially kaput. 

That figure was the goal set during the international 2015 Paris climate accord. 

According to that decade old plan, the world wasn't supposed to get more than 1.5 degree Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above the mid 19th century average.   

The UN is throwing in the towel with that one. Many other climate experts have been saying for months or even years that the world would not achieve the goal.  

The 1.5 degree target is still nominally the UN's goal, but they've finally admitted it's completely unrealistic. So, it's now all about trying to deal with the hotter world. 

As CBC reported:

"In a strategic retreat in the fight against climate change, the United Nations has acknowledged that Earth has lost its chance to prevent some of the worst of global warming's harms. Officials say the world must now figure out how to get temperatures below the danger zone and back to safety."

The trick now is to figure out over the next several decades how to get the world's temperature back under 1.5 degree C above the 19th centurial average. 

As the Associated Press reports: 

"Instead of giving up, scientists and the U.N. officials recommend trying to limit excessive warming and then bring the temperature back down to the agreed-upon threshold. But it will still mean decades of increased weather-related disasters rising seas, extinctions and melting ice and glaciers."

The 1.5 degree Celsius threshold is rather arbitrary. It's not like things will be OK until we reach 1.5 degrees, then all hell breaks loose. 

As the world has warmed, we've seen a gradual increase in record heat waves, destructive, wild storms and deepening droughts. 

Things will  just get worse and worse the higher the temperatures get. But you need to have goals, and that 1.5 degrees was the global goal, set by the U.N. 

The time for that goal has passed. The world is now 1.4 degrees hotter than it was in the 19th century. This is based on a 20 year average. The next couple of years will boost the average further, considering a strong El Nino will warm the world further. 

The U.N's latest most optimistic scenario now has the world's warming peaking at 1.8 degrees Celsius, or 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit about levels that we saw nearly two centuries.  Then, the hope is, the world would eventually start to cool back down a little. 

This is if countries around the world pursue ambitious climate goals starting now. Good luck with that. I'm looking at you, United States. 

To do this, the world would have to cut planet warming pollution 55 percent by 2035, then getting rid of virtually all fossil fuel emissions by 2050 or so. I do not see the political will do this. Correct me if I'm wrong. 

Washington Post explains the consequences: 

"The dangers at the scale of warming will still be significant. Rising sea levels will engulf small island nations and submerge many coastal communities. Heat waves, hurricanes, wildfires and floods, which already cause hundreds of thousands of deaths each year, will come many times more extreme. Without aggressive adaption measures, global food production could decline by 14 percent."

Also, even if we get above that 1.5 degree threshold for several decades, then manage to go below it again, it won't solve all the problems the world's warming has caused. Perhaps a quarter of the world's glaciers will have permanently melted away. Species will go extinct. Some ecosystems will never recover. 

If nothing changes in terms of policies, global temperatures will rise to 2.6 Celsius (4.7 degrees F)  over mid-19th century levels.  Per the AP:

"The UN's report says every five years of delay in reducing emissions adds at least a tenth of a degree to peak warming, said report co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London." 

This is among the bleakest U.N. climate reports I have read. It carries the unmistakable tone of desperation, frustration and urgency - but not resignation," said Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria."

Making the temperature of the world go down is a lot harder than making it go up.  

Wapo again:

"That's because it is far more difficult to take carbon out of the atmosphere that it is to release it, said Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and another lead author of the report."

We could plant million, or billions of trees to absorb carbon from the air. But those trees have to be planted somewhere.  Probably partly on agricultural land that should be used for food.  Then, if there's a forest fire, a big chunk of carbon absorption would be wiped out in a day.

We could build machines to suck carbon out of the air and store it underground. But we do not yet have the technology, or the money to do this on a large enough scale.  

For now, the world will keep warming. Maybe we'll get a temporary, semi-break around 2028 when El Nino ends and the Earth's temperature might go down marginally. But that will only be a blip, and the world will keep warming until humanity can get its act together. 

Since humanity has never truly gotten its act together, I'm not terribly optimist