Vermont Smoky, Windy, Stormy Saturday; Severe Storm Risk, Especially West. Will Sunday Rescue The Weekend?

A widespread severe weather outbreak is due in the
Northeast today. Vermont is on the edge of it. 
Clouds, wildfire smoke and the strength of the 
parent storm system is making today's 
storm forecast difficult and iffy. 

 We all know the humidity was low and gorgeous and pleasant around Vermont yesterday. If you stepped outside for even a second you might have even frizzed your hair a bit. 

It was the kind of summer day we all look forward to. And the tourists from the humid south get excited about. 

We actually tied a pretty substantial record Friday,  The relative humidity plunged to 20 percent in Burlington, tying the record for the lowest relative humidity in July. It's now a three-way tie with July 16, 2018 and July 1, 1975. 

Interestingly, July 1975 and 2018 were both among the top ten warmest on record. This month is running well above normal so far, but the second half looks like it could be in the cool side. 

Another way to look at how dry Friday was is the dew point.  That's the temperature that you would have had to reach to saturate the air. The dew point, as you keep seeing in this blog thingy, is a good measure of how comfortable it feels out there. 

If the dew point is in the 50s, it's nice and pleasant and not at all sweaty. The dew point got its the 30s in many areas Friday. We usually don't see something like that until we're into September.

SMOKY SATURDAY. STORMS, TOO?

The dry, clean air is in the past for now. This morning, the dew point is rising the smoke is back and getting thicker and the rest of the day isn't going to be so wonderful.

South winds are bringing back the smoke that had gotten flushed out of Vermont by Thursday's cold front. That has triggered a state wide air quality alert until 11 p.m. tonight. Especially for those who have lung problems, or are very young, or the elderly 

That's the part of the forecast that is easy, even if it is depressing. 

The next question is the risk of severe storms. Very much like on Tuesday night, the smoke is making the storm forecast challenging. That smoke could be one factor that could limit storms. Maybe.

his is a completely different weather set-up than we had on Tuesday night, so we can't use Tuesday night as an example. 

Fortunately, the core of today's rough weather will be slightly off to our west. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and western and central New York have a three out of five risk of severe storms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This is an unusually large area to be under this level of a storm alert. 

That area could have numerous strong to severe storms, and probably a few tornadoes. 

That leaves Vermont on the eastern edge of the the severe risk. Roughly south and west of Interstate 89, there's a slight risk of severe storm, a level two out of five risk of storms. That means at least scattered severe weather.  The rest of the state is under marginal risk, one out of five, which means mostly just isolated severe storms.

The parent storm system is unusually strong for July. That adds a lot of energy to the atmosphere, something that could trigger a lot of storms.

But Vermont is not fully getting into the super humid air that fuels storms. It'll turn humid for sure, but it won't get as humid as it possibly could be.  Also, it seems there will be a lot of clouds around today. And smoke. Don't forget that smoke!

The clouds and smoke could hold temperatures down further than they otherwise would be. Hotter air would help fuel storms. Cooler air would tame them down. 

So, we're left with a lot of questions. Will the clouds and smoke thin just in time to juice the atmosphere into severe storms?  Or will the clouds and smoke keep us cool, limiting the storm? 

As noted above, the parent storm is vigorous, so it should overcome the smoke and clouds and produce rounds of showers and storms. The wind is changing direction and strength with height. So, once again, there is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado. This will be south and west of Interstate 89, with the best chance down near Bennington. 

However, the biggest risk from today's storms is damaging straight line winds. 

After our two tornadoes, and a slew of destructive microburst this summer, this isn't exactly what we need. 

Whether or not we see severe thunderstorms, it's not going to be a nice day. 

It won't rain all the time, but a risk of showers and storms will always be there, through this evening. Between showers and storms winds will be fairly gusty, especially in the Champlain Valley. Boating on Lake Champlain will be tricky, even dangerous for small boats. Plus the smoke. And it will feel increasingly humid. 

Bottom line: Keep an eye on the sky, and - once again - have a way to receive warnings of severe weather warnings. 

So, can the weekend be saved?

SUNDAY

The above question gets a yes answer on Sunday. 

We'll have a day exactly the opposite of what today will bring. We could see some clouds early in the day, but it should turn mostly sunny. The storm's cold front will have flushed most if not all of  the wildfire smoke away.

It will be also be cool for the season. Our first subtle hint of autumn! (Don't worry, summer is far from over).  Highs should stay in the 70s, maybe upper 60s in the cooler hills in the north. The humidity will be at rock bottom, not much different than it was yesterday. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's an active weather pattern, so a new weather system is due Tuesday night and Wednesday. It's too soon to know the details of what will happen with that next storm, but severe storms and torrential rains are possible. 

After Yesterday's Weird Storm, A Brief Delightful Vermont Day Today. Smoke, Rain To Return

Yesterday's cold front packed some surprisingly 
strong winds. This tree in Georgia, Vermont
fell victims to those winds. Fallen trees and 
damaged power lines were reported across
much of the state. 

That was one weird storm in Vermont yesterday. 

On radar, it didn't look like much: Just a band of light to moderate showers. It was weird to see a severe thunderstorm warning ahead of what appeared to be a patch of light rain in the Champlain Valley. 

But the cold front had in incredible gust front.  Trees fell down in a wide area of northern and central Vermont. 

One tree blocked all lanes of Route 7 in Colchester near Poor Farm Road. Other trees fell in Georgia, Milton, Hyde Park and other towns. Winds gusted to 47 mph in Burlington. 

It was another surprisingly strong storm in a stormy summer. We might have more on the way Saturday. I'll get into that in a bit, but first, a calm interlude

TODAY

Today will be gorgeous. And placid.  The good new for us is that gusty cold front removed most of the smoke from Vermont. For now, anyway.   That left was a calm, comfortable sleeping night, and a pleasant, sunny day, with low humidity. 

It should get to 80 degrees in the warmer spots this afternoon.  That would make this the 21st day in a row in which it got to at least 80 degrees in Burlington. Today would make it the fourth longest stretch of consecutive 80 degree days on record,

The record for most consecutive 80 degree days is 29 days in 2018. I doubt we will break that record as we have some sub-80 degree days coming up. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

Meanwhile, the weather goes downhill from here.

TOMORROW

That smoke that got suppressed to our south by yesterday's cold front looks like it wants to come back   at us tomorrow as south winds take over. I'm not sure whether it will be enough to trigger new air quality alerts, but I imagine it will be at least noticeable. 

On top of that - here we go again - an unusually strong storm is going to go by to our north tomorrow and tomorrow night.  It'll be one of several oddly intense storms this summer. Not sure, but I think the onset of the strong El Nino now underway is helping to produce these vigorous systems. 

A strong storm like the one forecast for tomorrow might remind you of that day in June, when a similarly powerful storm helped set off two tornadoes in Vermont.

I wouldn't count on tornadoes this time, as if anybody wants something like that to happen again. 

There are some differences between the June storm and what we're going to see Saturday and Saturday night. The storm in June had a cold front with a sharp change in wind direction. It also had sharp changes in wind direction and wind speed  aloft. That's a recipe for tornadoes 

This storm doesn't look like it will  have such a big change in wind direction. Which reduces the chances of tornadoes. 

It also looks like we'll be dealing with wildfire smoke. As we saw earlier this week, smoke can reduce the intensity or number of thunderstorms. We think, anyway. 

That's not to say we won't have any strong storms. For now, anyway, most of Vermont is in a marginal risk (level one out of five alert) for severe thunderstorms. Southwest Vermont is at level two out of five.  Forecasting storminess like this even one day in advance can be tricky. The risk level for Vermont storms could rise or fall by the time we get tomorrow, so stay tuned.  

It does seen like there could be a relatively decent amount of rain with this. Current forecasts have us receiving a half to three quarters of an inch of rain, give or take. With thunderstorms around, actual amounts will be pretty variable. A couple places might get well over an inch of rain. A couple places might largely miss on the rain. 

Some parts of Vermont could use the rain. Here in St. Albans, those big thunderstorms this month have pretty much missed our area. We picked up a whopping 0.07 inches of rain yesterday, so that didn't really help. 

Overall, with the smoke, the showers, the risk of storms, the rising humidity and gusty non-thunderstorms winds, this won't be the glorious weather Saturday a lot of people would hope for.  On the bright side, it won't rain all day, and it feels like most of the rain will come later in the day.

SUNDAY

If you want a decent weather day this weekend, you'll want to wait until Sunday. That storm will blow by, sweep its cold front through, and leave us with dry, cool weather. Hopefully, it will also blow the smoke away. Temperatures will probably fall short of 80 degrees in Burlington, breaking the streak of 80 degree weather. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It looks like we have a fairly active weather pattern ahead. I don't see any signs of temperature extremes, neither too hot nor particularly chilly for this time of year.  Another fairly vigorous storm for this time of year looks like it might swing through Tuesday or Wednesday with the potential for locally heavy rain and thunderstorms, 

It's way too soon to get into specifics, so we'll put that on the back burner for now. 

 

Weather Evacuations: What Can Go Wrong (And Right) When Storms Disrupt Big Outdoor Shows

People being hastily moved from an outdoor venue
to an indoor venue during a high school graduation
ceremony in Orono, Minnesota in early June.
A strong thunderstorm prompted the hasty change in
plans. The move went smoothly, as the school had
 a plan in place for severe weather .

 I attended a high school graduation during early June   in Minnesota for our grandnephew Jonas, who is moving on to college in September.  

We were there for Jonas, of course, but I also got a weather moment, and a weather lesson. It involves evacuations of outdoor events when the conditions get, or threaten to become dangerous. 

The graduation was disrupted by an early summer storm. The school did almost everything right and kept everyone safe and orderly. More on that in a bit. 

Outdoor events are tricky when the weather goes bad.

Weather emergencies have always been a threat to outdoor concerts, festivals and ceremonies. 

Climate change is making this worse, like it's making so many other things worse.

As CBC reports: 

"More and more major cultural, social, business and arts events around the world are being disrupted or canceled by extreme weather events caused by climate change, according to a new study published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 

The study, Mapping the impact of extreme weather on global events and mass gatherings, trends and adaptive strategies details that from 2004 to 2024 more than 2,000 mass gatherings were reportedly disrupted around the world."   

Most of these events happen in the summer, when sudden, fast moving storms often require even faster evacuations. 

Lightning strikes, falling trees and branches, falling debris, collapsing stages and flash floods can happen in a blink of an eye. You need coordinated, well developed plans for this type of thing. 

It doesn't always work out that way. 

WASHINGTON FOURTH OF JULY

Severe thunderstorms forced the evacuation of the 
National Mall during the Fourth of July, creating
chaos as President Trump's team were 
incompetent planning for the event.

It's not always so safe and orderly, as we saw on the National Mall in Washington DC on July 4. 

After a day of dangerous, baking, record breaking heat, severe thunderstorms loomed over the Mall as evening settled in.  

The National Parks Service, fearing lightning strikes, high winds and flying debris, ordered a hasty evacuation of the National Mall. 

Some of the MAGA types in the crowd resisted, predictably arguing that the whole thing was woke liberals in the NPS trying to ruin Donald Trump's big night. 

It was a mess, to put it mildly 

Given the circumstances, NPS wanted everybody to call it a night and cancel Trump's speech and fireworks. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"A senior White House official said Sunday that 'all the entities involved' had recommend calling the festivities off altogether after storms forced the exodus from the Mall.

'When POTUS heard this, he told all involved to invite everyone back in and the speech would take place, even if it meant waiting until 2 a.m,' said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations." 

As WaPo notes, the National Weather Service had forecast the record heat days in advance. The severe storms were deemed likely by forecasters three days before the big day. So, the Trump people should have planned for the extreme weather. They did not.  

It appears the National Parks Service did have contingency plans, but moving 100,000 or more people as a storm bore down is not easy. Especially if some of them are unruly.  

However, the whole shebang was designated a National Special Security Event, because the president was making an appearance there.  The designation put the Secret Service in charge of security and emergencies. 

Since management of all federal agencies, including Secret Service, have been reduced to haphazard, incompetent groups because they're run by Trump lackeys and not professionals, things were bound to take a bad turn. 

Especially since the designation meant added layers of security screening for those entering and exiting the Mall.

National Parks Officers were left to deal with the disaster. 

WaPo paints a picture of how it all went: 

"....as skies darkened, lightning flashed and gusting winds swept through the Mall just after 7 p.m., crows of people refused to heed the calls to evacuate. Many had already waited for house in security lines in the heat. 

'Show is over. Pleas keep moving,' one officer shouted to stragglers. 'Rally canceled.' shouted another. Exits back up. Some people complained that it was unclear where they should head, and the scene grew increasingly tense. Social media showed people yelling back at security personnel and National Guard troops flipping over a table to persuade people to flee."

As noted, it would have been better to call it a night. But due to Trump's directive, people had to go through security again. Many people didn't bother.   The whole event was a disappointment, and several people were taken to the hospital, mostly for heat-related illnesses. 

GRADUATION

The Minnesota graduation I attended about a month ago was a completely different world. The crowd was much smaller than at the Mall on the Fourth of July. The weather wasn't broiling hot as it was on July 4 in Washington. 

And the people making decisions on what to do with the weather and the crowds knew what they were doing. 

The high school graduation was held in Orono, Minnesota, an outer suburb about 17 miles west of downtown Minneapolis. 

Before the graduation even got underway,  I checked the radar and found a band of thunderstorms west of Orono, Minnesota. I questioned the decision to go ahead with the outdoor ceremony.

The school decided to go ahead with the outdoor ceremony.  

It was a no-win decision, really. The storms could have dissipated or veered off to the north or south leaving Orono in the clear. That  would have angered participates who preferred a much more accessible outdoor ceremony. 

Or, as how it turned out, the storms kept marching toward Orono strengthening as they did so. As we watched the graduation ceremony, we also saw a walk of dark clouds approaching steadily from the west.  Soon, we saw the storm's shelf cloud, with flashes of lightning flickering beneath it.

That's when the call came to stop the proceedings and move inside. That was about halfway through the ceremony.

This was a modest-sized event with maybe a couple thousand people in a pleasant Minneapolis suburb with sturdy buildings nearby. 

 Pretty much everybody got inside, to the gym, and the graduation continued, almost seamlessly picking up where it left off.

But it did remind me of other outdoor events with larger crowds, bigger storms and poorer planning. Any outdoor event, no matter how mellow, can turn into a deadly fiasco. Even worse than the National Mall Fourth of July mess. 

Some examples:

SUGARLAND

On August 13, 2011,  the popular country band Sugarland was set to play at the Indiana State Fair. As a severe thunderstorm arrived, wind brought down a large portion of the 62-foot tall, 32-ton stage structure. Steel beams and rigging crashed on the crowd, killing 7 and injuring more than 100. 

Forecasters had said severe thunderstorms were expected. However, fair and entertainment officials ahead of the Sugarland did not discuss public safety, just the timing of the show and the fact it was going to rain. 

Sugarland band members were told about the impending rain, and Sugarland said they would go ahead and play, since they often performed concerts in the rain. However, they were not told of the risk of strong winds.

By the time it came apparent a severe thunderstorm with powerful winds was about to hit, it was too late to evacuate Sugarland fans in time before disaster struck.

GLASTONBURY

In other instances, there is not much you can do, The roughly 170,000 people at the 2005 Glastonbury Festival endured an intense heat wave, followed by the most intense storm locals had seen. in 15 years. Lightning cut power, and torrential rains flooded much of the site. In fact, a river burst its banks and sent a torrent of water across a field full of tents.

Somehow, there were few casualties back at that festival, but it really could have been a fatal day.  

Unfortunately, as the Fourth of July National Mall fiasco indicates, some event organizers will not always plan for extreme weather. Or, the allure of revenue might make them make some poor choices.

Next time you go to an outdoor concert, or fair, or festival, check the weather forecast yourself. If it looks really, really iffy, you might want to cancel your plans to be on the safe side. 

 

Smoke Annoying Vermont, And Much Of Northern U.S. Storms/Rain Lurk In New England Too

A bit of another severe risk. Level 2 out of 5 risk of
damaging winds in the Northeast Kingdom and in
northern New Hampshire and half of Maine.
Northwest and central Vermont are at a level 1
out of  5 risk. This won't be as serious as the
destructive microbursts in south central
Vermont early yesterday morning. 

The smoke is back, especially in southern Vermont. Big wildfires in Ontario and northern Minnesota is causing most of the trouble. 

Smoke will be a problem for the rest of the summer, probably. Rain might tamp down the Ontario fires Friday and Friday night, and that might temporarily help. 

All this pollution makes the overall weather forecast a little harder, both for understanding when the smoke will be thickest and how that will affect overall weather. 

Later yesterday, the thick smoke got suppressed south to near the Massachusetts border and points south and west. Northern Vermont got a temporary break. 

TODAY

Unfortunately, satellite imagery was down this morning so I don't have a full picture of what's going on with the smoke. Just a general idea.

However, we know the smoke moved back north overnight, but it's still thickest in southern Vermont. An air quality alert is in effect until 11 p.m. tonight for all of Vermont except the far north. It's part of a broad air quality alert zone extending from Minnesota to Massachusetts. 

Another cold front is going to temporarily squash the smoke southward this afternoon. The cold front has already set off some needed showers in northwest Vermont, an area that could use some rain  Unfortunately, there is a risk of a few strong or even severe storms today. 

It's been a stormy summer. 

The weather set up is similar to Tuesday, when we were expecting a big outbreak of severe storms. The main difference is that it's much less humid than it was on Tuesday. So there's less potential fuel for storms

This time, the smoke is somewhat lighter in northern Vermont. Despite the lower humidity, the lack of smoke means there could be a few strong or borderline severe storms. Especially as a new cold front accompanied by a weather disturbance approaches us from Quebec.

This will not be a big storm outbreak.  Some of us won't see any showers or storms at all. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has much of Vermont under a marginal risk of severe storms, a level one out of five risk. 

The Northeast Kingdom, northern New Hampshire and southern Maine have a higher risk, a level two out of five alert level for severe storms. Far southern Vermont is outside the risk zone. 

Again, this won't be anything as serious as those destructive microbursts that hit towns like Shoreham, Whiting, the north end of Lake Bomoseen, Shrewsbury, Windsor and other spots late Tuesday and early Wednesday.  

Just keep an eye to the sky and get into a building if a storm is approaching. A couple spots could have some damaging wind gusts. The storms should be around early to mid afternoon north, and mid to late afternoon south. Though southern Vermont should see few if any showers and storms 

The good news is the cold front will temporarily disperse the smoke later today, especially north. 

FRIDAY

Should be a nice day. After a comfortable night tonight, we should have a sunshine, low humidity with highs in the70s to low 80s. It looks like we should still have some wildfire smoke hanging around. It's hard to say for sure, but current forecasts suggest the smoke might be worse south and west of Interstate 89.

WEEKEND

Saturday looks rather rainy. Which is good, as several places in Vermont have been cheated as thunderstorms have missed them this month. Northwest Vermont seems particularly dry. The first half of July in Burlington had 1.37 inches less rain than normal.  

You might be able to squeeze in some outdoor activity during the first half of Saturday, since the bulk of the rain should come through later in the afternoon and evening. Early forecasts call for an inch of rain in northern Vermont, with a little less than that across the south.  

It looks like Sunday will clear up in the afternoon. It also looks like it might be the coolest day we've had since maybe the third week in June. Highs should stay mainly in the 70s.

The weather pattern has changed. No promises, but it appears the second half of July might be cooler than the first half of the month. 

"Smoke Bomb" Might Have Saved Vermont/Northern New England From Widespread Severe Weather

My sister in Shrewsbury, Vermont sent
me several photos of storm damage
in that town. Here's one showing a 
large uprooted tree. However, the
storms weren't as widespread as 
forecasted, likely due to the 
thick wildfire smoke in the air

 We wake up this morning to find our big storms we were supposed to get last night didn't happen to the extent everyone was worried about. 

There were some strong storms in the Northeast Kingdom during the evening. And a collection of supercell thunderstorms  swept from northwest New York through south central Vermont early this morning.  Hail up to the size of baseballs hit St. Lawrence County, New York, and a roof was blown off a house there. 

In Vermont early this morning, tree damage was reported in place like Brandon, Pittsford, Orwell and Shoreham. where several large trees were snapped off. In Shrewsbury, numerous fallen trees blocked town roads and the power was out

 Trees blew down between Springfield and Weathersfield, blocking both northbound lanes of Interstate 91.  One southbound lane was also closed. Southern New Hampshire also had some storm damage. Parts of the region had a big lightning show. 

This wasn't the big scary storm outbreak we were expecting.  That's a good thing, Far fewer of us are picking up the pieces than we feared. 

However, that things didn't get as wild as forecast is frustrating for the public.  Judging from social media, people were genuinely scared at yesterday's forecast.  A small hint of fear is good. It gets people to take precautions. But people were worked up. Then, in many cases, nothing happened, which leaves people saying, "What the hell?"

 Of course, people were told that not everyone would be hit by severe storms, it would just be a minority of us. But that gets lost in the hype. 

But still, as noted, this outbreak of severe weather fell well short of forecasts. I'm not blame the meteorologists. This was about as tough of a weather scenario to forecast as you can get.  And I'd suggest the wildfire smoke really threw a wrench into the severe weather forecasting. 

SMOKE

The science of factoring smoke and climate change into day to day forecasts needs work.

The sky was a sick yellow over St. Albans, Vermont
yesterday morning because of wildfire smoke.
The smoke made severe weather forecasting even
more challenging, and probably reduced the
number of severe storms in the region. 

As soon as we got up yesterday, we knew something was awry. There was a lot of smoke out there.  Fires burning in northern Minnesota and Ontario really smogged us in. 

We're now having another smoky summer. Climate change has encouraged more fires due to hotter weather and in many places, drier conditions. 

Since the problem is newish, I don't think the computer models handle smoke forecasts well. Especially since the amounts of smoke the fires belch out changes often and unpredictably. So sometimes we're surprised by the haze and pollution. 

It gets worse. Meteorologists and other scientists don't have a great handle on how wildfire smoke affects thunderstorm development, especially when wildfire behavior changes abruptly.  We saw that yesterday as meteorologists struggled with whether the smoke would squelch storms or not. 

During a live Facebook event last evening, National Weather Service meteorologists in South Burlington said they doubted the smoke would interfere much with storm development. Meanwhile, at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center,  NWS meteorologists issued a statement saying that while there was a very good chance of severe storm development in northern New England, widespread wildfire smoke and clouds were teaming up to inhibit storms from firing up.

This morning, responding to a question from a person on Facebook, the National Weather Service in South Burlington had a great explanation:

"The thick smoke layer was a big wildcard yesterday. Turns out, the smoke reduced instability just enough that the severe storms weren't as widespread as anticipated. Given the recency of the wildfires in southwestern Ontario  - which was the primary source of the smoke - it wasn't incorporated into the model solution very well."

In the words, the fires blew up so quickly that the computer models couldn't easily feed that information into the forecast they were spitting out. So the forecast was off.

Wildfire smoke is bad, as Captain Obvious would tell us, but it might have helped us last night by limiting storms. 

More research is needed to help us understand how wildfire smoke and thunderstorms interact. Also, we need science on how smoke affects temperature forecasts. The thickness of the smoke yesterday was unexpected, and made us cooler that we thought it would be.  The forecast high in Burlington yesterday was 97 degrees. It only made it to 88.

Smoke wasn't the only thing that created fewer storms than feared. The cold front descending from Quebec was a bit of a slowpoke, coming at us later than forecast

LOOKING AHEAD

You can tell by looking out your window that smoke is still a problem here in Vermont and a lot of other places today. An air quality alert is in effect for New York State. I imagine Vermont officials are considering it. But the bulk of the smoke is aloft.   

Some of it is down here where we breathe, so the air isn't great. It's just not as awful as it can get. Air quality was moderate across Vermont this morning, though it was flirting with "unhealthy for sensitive groups."

Northern Vermont will tend to clear out later today, but southern areas are forecast to stay socked in. Smoke will make another run at us tomorrow. 

There is a low chance of showers and weak thunderstorms today, though the Storm Prediction Center has the Northeast Kingdom in a marginal risk for severe storms. This isn't a huge threat at all, but there could be an isolated strong storm today up there. Don't hold your breath on that, though. 

Today will be warm and breezy with highs up in the 80s. 

Tomorrow

A reinforcing cold front should come through tomorrow, with a new batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms. They will be hit and miss, and the thunderstorms should be pretty much garden variety. Rainfall will be generally light, which is too bad as many of us could use a nice soaking

Wildfire smoke should make another run at us. It'll reduce air quality again. It will also make it more difficult to forecast how widespread the expected showers and storms will be. 

Friday

A nice one, as it looks now. Sunny, dry, with highs in the 70s to around 80. That will make it our coldest day since late June. I don't exactly think we'll be shivering in those temperatures, though. We still have to keep an eye on wildfire smoke. It's a little too early to figure out if that will be a factor on Friday. 

Weekend.

Looking unsettles with rain chances both days. This could change, but Sunday looks like the better of the two days. Fingers crossed, the showers might move out of Vermont early in the day Sunday to reveal increasing sunshine. The storm causing the showers will have to move just a bit faster than forecast to accomplish this, however.

Evening Vermont Storm Update: Despite Smoke, Dangerous Storms, Tornadoes Risk Continues Now Through Pre-dawn Hours

Satellite photo this evening. Still a lot of wildfire 
smoke over and near Vermont. That might or might
not interfere with storm develop. Some are 
developing. White splotches over extreme 
northeast Vermont, northern New Hampshire
and part of Maine were strong storms as of 6 p.mm
Other storms firing east of Montreal, A nasty clump
of storms well north of Ottawa in the upper left
of the photo are heading in our general direction
and could be severe for us if they hold together 

 Wildfire smoke is still making our storm forecast more difficult than it otherwise would be, but signs continue to point toward severe weather. 

For much of the day, it looked like western Maine would suffer the worst of this outbreak.  But it hasn't warmed up as much ax forecast in the main Maine risk zone, so to speak. At 4 p.m., Rangeley, Maine was only 73 degrees. 

Temperatures in the 80s would have helped make storms more powerful. Maine might still get nailed, but the lower temperatures raise questions about the severe threat there. 

Here in Vermont, it's also a bit cooler than forecast, but still much warmer than northwestern Maine. As of 5 p.m., it was well into the 80s, with a couple spots close to 90 degrees. The dew point had risen to near 70 across the state. 

Those are super juicy conditions for storms. 

The winds are also veering with height, and are pretty strong higher up.  Here down on the ground, winds are from the southwest. Higher up, the winds are westerly. Go up even further to jet stream level, the winds are northwesterly. 

That's a great set up for severe weather. 

With all these ingredients for storms, we  just need the trigger. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington said that so far, the smoke has tamped down attempts at thunderstorms. But the approaching cold front, and a so-called pre-frontal trough ahead of it, would overcome the smoke and fire up some storms. 

At least that's what the thinking was as of late this afternoon.

At this point, as of nearly 6 p.m., it's still unclear whether this will develop into the nasty severe outbreak that has been forecasted since yesterday, or a total forecast bust/false alarm, or somewhere in between.

There were storms starting to fire in southern and central Quebec. There was a nasty batch of storms well north of Ottawa. We'll see if they hold together, as they were heading in our general direction. 

I'd keep planning on a severe outbreak if I were you. The ingredients are still all there. We're just waiting for the proper triggers. Even if those triggers never fire, what have you lost by bracing yourself for the possibility of nasty storms. 

As of 6 p.m., meteorologists much smarter than me were still insisting the triggers will fire tonight. In a Facebook post, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said confidence in severe weather tonight "continues to increase"

 The NWS also said the wildfire smoke would have little, if any effect on the storms. It's just a matter of how well the atmosphere triggers work tonight. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is more nuanced for this evenings outlook. Wildfire smoke and a general cloudiness might be inhibiting storms. As of 7 p.m., they were still on the fence on whether to issue a severe storm watch. 

Still, if storms can overcome these factors, severe storms will erupt.

We've still got the risk of destructive straight line winds, maybe a a couple of tornadoes. Somewhere in northern New England, a tornado might turn out to be strong. There's also the risk of large hail, local flash floods and continuous lightning. 

Not everybody will see those dire weather conditions. But a few places might. From now until about 3 a.m., you'll need a way to receive storm or tornado warnings, just in case. Don't put your phone on do not disturb. 

It's also important to note it's impossible to tell who will receive a severe storm and who will avoid them in advance. We won't know until just before the storms hit. 

READING THE TEA LEAVES

Like every meteorologist and weather geek around, I've been constantly looking at satellite images and weather radar, and other data to see what's going on. 

Things change fast with these severe weather episodes, but here's a snapshot at what we see shortly before 6 p.m. 

A patch of clouds over northern Vermont late this afternoon was preventing storms from firing up.  It was expected that we wouldn't see much of anything during the afternoon, so this part was expected. 

It had gotten interesting just north of the border, though. Just north of the border was a narrow line of roiling clouds, some of which were developing into thunderstorms. A 

 At 5:19 p.m. today, one storm on that line prompted the first severe thunderstorm warning of the day, covering the extreme northeast tip of Vermont. Other thunderstorms were trying to develop further west along that line of clouds, but they were struggling. 

There's sort of a temperature boundary between the relatively cool air in northwest Maine and the warmer, more humid air in Vermont. So I'm suspecting the Northeast Kingdom will see thunderstorms start fairly early this evening, as thunderstorms like to form along boundaries. 

Speaking of boundaries, there's a pre-frontal trough south of the main cold front. Pre-frontal troughs are common in severe weather outbreak. They are a line of disturbed weather usually a few dozen miles ahead of the actual cold front. 

The pre-frontal trough was encouraging thunderstorms far to the northwest of Montreal. They're embedded in wildfire smoke, so we're unsure if the smoke will interfere with further development or not. 

In any event, the main show happens after 8 a.m. and continues to around 2 or 3 in the morning. If the forecast is correct, waves of storms will move down from Quebec into northeast New York, northern Vermont, northen New Hampshire and northwest Maine. 

Again, if the storms develop, they'll be a mix of supercells and short lines of intense storms Those supercells are the prime suspects for forming a couple tornadoes tonight. Very few people will actually be affected by any tornadoes. But still, oe or two of them could still be strong.

The bigger danger is still straight line winds. The worst storms could have wind gusts of over 75 mph. If one of those comes through where you live, you'll see a lot of damage. 

This isn't to say everybody gets severe weather. Some of the storms will indeed be severe, even intense. Other areas in the higher risks zones will wake up tomorrow morning wondering what all the fuss was about. 

The storms should still weaken as they head toward southern Vermont after midnight. 

WHAT TO DO

The first and most important thing to do is have at least one way to receive severe storm warnings all night. Fully charge your phone, leave it on your nightstand and have it set to blare if a severe storm or tornado warning goes up for your area.

You'll need to act fast if you get a warning, especially if it's  a tornado warning. Have sturdy shoes next to your bed that you can slip on quickly. Also a flash light or better yet  a head lamp so your hands will be free. 

Make sure you're able to scoop up any pets on the way to the basement. 

Some of the severe thunderstorms, if they develop, might have winds equivalent to a tornado so head to the basement even if it's a severe storm warning instead of a tornado warning. If you don't have a basement go into a small interior windowless space like a bathroom or closet. Put as many walls between you and the outside that you can. 

If you're still camping, get out of the woods now if not sooner. Any forested area will be really dangerous if an intense storm or tornado comes along. 

Before the storms arrive, secure outdoor furniture and plants early this evening before the storms arrive. I'll be doing that as soon as I finish this post. 

Above all, don't work yourself up over this. It is a bigger severe threat than we're used to in northern New England. But for most of us, the worst we'll endure ia a noisy night with lightning, loud thunder, gusty winds and torrential rains in may spots. 

An unlucky minority of us in the North Country unfortunately face real danger and likely property damage if the storms develop as meteorologists were anticipating as of 6 p.m. 

Just take your precautions this evening and stay weather aware overnight 

Quick Early Tuesday I'Afternoon New England Storm Update

Satellite view as of 1:30 p.m. there's thick smoke
in New England and far southern Quebec. It's 
visible as that brown stuff.The thunderstorms
are further up in Quebec, and beginning
to affect Maine. We're unsure yet whether 
the smoke will affect the intensity of 
the expected storms tonight. 

Early this afternoon, another round of updates has come through the transom regarding the severe weather forecast for this evening in northern New England. 

The overall philosophy is the same: Meteorologists still expect a mix of supercells and clusters of potentially severe storms crossing the border from Quebec toward evening. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center updated their severe storm outlook early this afternoon, like they usually do. 

The major change is an upgrade to the tornado risk in western Maine. Up there, we have a 10 percent chance of  tornado within 25 miles of a given point. 

It's still at least a five percent of a twister in a given point across northern Vermont and New Hampshire and extreme northeast New York. 

Strong straight line winds are still be far the greatest risk tonight. 

Wildfire smoke is still a wild card. It's blocking the sun, and it's not warming up as much as forecast. This smoke is much thicker than all the computer models expected. Will that mess up the instability necessary to fuel this severe storm outbreak? 

As of early afternoon the thickest smoke had moved east out of Vermont. But thick smoke was still stretched out in a band along either side of the Canadian border. Here in St. Albans as of 1:30, the atmosphere has a sick puke yellow color, and the sun is showing as a dim red dot in the sky. 

There are a few signs the pollution could diminish the storms. As of 1:30 p.m. I'm kind of unimpressed with the storms far to our north in Quebec. However, there is plenty of time for these storms to develop to dangerous levels.

I'm also seeing hints that Maine and northern New Hampshire, and probably the Northeast Kingdom might have the earliest and most intense storms this evening. There looks like there might be several bursts of storms through midnight, with the severe threat lasting well into the night. 

So far, it seems to be full steam ahead with the severe storm expectations.  The atmosphere is pretty primed for storms.  I'll have an update late this afternoon.  Meanwhile, you can read my full morning report with more details by clicking on this link. 

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