A Few More Vermont Showers, And Mostly Comfortable Weather For The Upcoming Week.

Shower clouds billow up over St. Albans, Vermont 
yesterday. Numerous, small thunderstorms raced
across northern Vermont during part of yesterday
afternoon, but they deposited little rain 

A mini-swarm of mini thunderstorms erupted over northern and central Vermont during the early and mid-afternoon. 

But the vast majority of people who wanted or needed a good soaking of rain for their gardens didn't get it. The downpours were small in area, and moved on almost as soon as they began. 

I heard occasional thunder here in St Albans, Vermont between 12:45 and 2:45 p.m, but collected a whopping 0.02 inches of rain. It remained dusty in the gardens once the sun came back out and I was out there watering to reverse the wilt.

It was a little cool out there, too, another sign that fall is on our doorstep,

I also noticed another little sign of autumn out in western New York over the past couple of days. 

In the summer,  Great Lakes water is cooler team the air above it. That arrangement is a cloud killer. All through the spring and summer, you'll often seen satellite photos showing absolutely clear skies over the Great Lakes and on the immediate shorelines. But just inland, the sky is cluttered with puffy cumulus clouds.

The only way you can get lake effect rains, (or snows!) is if the water temperature is warmer than the atmosphere above it. In this case, you'll often  see streamers of clouds and showers coming off the lakes. 

For the first time this season, the lakes were warmer than the air above. So, those lake effect showers cranked up over the past couple days.  At least it wasn't snow. 

It'll be a while before western New York - and Vermont - sees snow. It'll still be comfortable out there over the next several days. But it's getting more and more unlikely that we'll see another big heat wave this year. 

Let's get into it: 

 TODAY

A little more rain fell on some northern areas overnight. Not enough to really soak anything down, but OK. Anything helps if your garden or lawn is a little dry. 

For the rest of the day, we're still getting some influence from an old storm up on Quebec, so we do have a  risk of some showers through the day, especially north and mountains. 

Only some places will get rain, and those that do won't receive much. Those places that do see rain should have only less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Except maybe, just maybe in the far northern Champlain Valley. Showers have been a bit persistent there early this morning. 

 There is less of a chance of thunder today as yesterday, as the instability is a little less. 

It'll be another cool-ish day, maybe even a bit cooler than yesterday. Highs should only make it into the low and mid 70s. Maybe upper 60s in some northern high spots. Another sign that autumn is coming. to yet, but it's close. 

WEDNESDAY

Should be a really nice day. Sunshine, highs in the 70s, low humidity, you can't beat that. 

THURSDAY

The next weather front moves in during the day.  Ahead of the cold front, some warmer, somewhat humid air will come in. Nothing oppressive.  Just low 80s, and dew points in the 60s. 

Scattered showers and storms will arrive in the afternoon and continue into the evening. 

FRIDAY:

Lingering showers and cooler weather, as we get into another cool, slightly  unstable flow of northwesterly winds. 

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

So far at least, next weekend is looking good. The forecast can change, but for now, it looks like we might have yet another Saturday. And the good weather could last into Sunday. 

After that, forecasts are divided, but we might get our first cool, September-like batch of showers early next week. It's an uncertain forecast, so stay tuned. 

A Record Strong El Nino Is Underway. What Does That Mean For The Next Year Or So?

This map shows where sea surface temperatures are above or
below normal and by how much. The darker the shading, the
greater the departure from normal. As you can see, El 
Nino has super charged the warmth of the Pacific
ocean off the west coast of South America. 

 The strong El Nino is under way, but the real fun doesn't start until later this autumn or winter. 

 The El Nino is forecast to become the most intense one on record.
 

To set us up, we need to explain El Nino. 

It's a periodic warming of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. When it happens, it tends to warm the entire planet up. It also causes areas of extra storminess, and other areas of extra dryness around the world.

El Ninos are now happening on top of climate change, so it's a double whammy. Fossil fuel emissions are warming the Earth's atmosphere long term. El Nino is temporarily making it even worse. 

Even more troublesome, since the current El Nino is likely the strongest on record, the extremes will probably get more extreme. .

As ABC News reports, a typical El Nino usually brings warmer than normal temperatures across the northern tier of the United States, but the effect can be less pronounced over the Northeast. 

In the Northeast, there can be an uptick in nor'easters which can interrupt a relative warm winter with harsh winter storms. 

El Nino typically increases the odds of above-average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic and coastal areas of the Northeast as storms often move up the coast. Farther inland, drier-than-average conditions and less snow are more likely.

For Vermont specifically, we have a look back at Vermont El Ninos winters from WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consol.

The El Nino winter of 1957-58 was cold and snowy in the Green Mountain State, but that was an exception. Most El Ninos give us at least relatively warm winters. 

Very strong El Ninos in 1982-83 and in 1997-98 yielded winters that were slightly warmer than normal with below normal snowfall. However, the 1983 El Nino year gave us a very wet and snowy winter. The 1998 El Nino year brought Vermont's epic historic January ice storm. I'm not saying this El Nino will create another repeat of that ice storm, but it's potential evidence of weird weather here in Vermont. 

Then came a very strong El Nino in 2015-16. Snowfall was well below normal in Vermont that winter. And it was the hottest winter on record. 

Hottest on record, that is, until 2023-24. Another strong El Nino hit, and that became the hottest winter in Vermont, at least as measured in Burlington. 

There's no guarantee we'll have the same result. There could be other factors that give us a cold winter. So we'll just have to wait and see.

ELSEWHERE

The trouble spots during El Ninos are typically in the southern half of the United States. That means southern California in particularly might be in for flooding rains and landslides. Usually the Gulf Coast states endure frequent winter thunderstorms, flooding and tornadoes.  

Globally, since El Nino warms up an already climate-changed hot world, there's a very good chance that 2027 will become Earth's hottest year on record, beating the record set in 2024 during the previous El Nino.

Either drought' or crop-wrecked storms will likely hit some of the most productive food growing parts of the world. Political instability and income inequality are rising, thanks in large part to certain buffoons in the United States government.

The combination of El Nino, climate change food disruptions and political stupidity isn't necessarily the end of the world, despite what you read in some corners of social media. But it could lead to famine in some areas, deadly storms in other spots. People will unfortunately die because of all this. 

There is precedence for this. An El Nino in 1877 was the record holder until this year for the strongest El Nino. Global famines that year from weather disruptions killed 50 million people. 

It looks like the next year or so will not be a pleasant one for humanity. And those problems will in part go on past 2027.  So brace yourself boys and girls, you are in for some unpleasant surprises with the climate, your local weather, your pocketbook and your general sense of ease.  

Gary, Indiana Has Been Out Of Power For Nearly Two Weeks After Storm. Why Is It Taking So Long

A woman endures warm, humid weather outdoors in 
Gary, Indiana during nearly two weeks of power 
outages caused by storms. Therefore, no air
conditioning. Photo from the New York Times. 

On August 11, a horrible storm swept through northwest Indiana, including Gary, Indiana. Winds gusted to more than 90 mph. Countless trees collapsed across power lines. Gary went dark. 

Gary is still dark. 

As of Sunday morning, 28,000 homes and businesses were still without power, out of the 375,000 or so that lost electricity the day of the storm. People in Gary are unlikely to have electricity until Tuesday. 

In some areas, massive trees are still down and not cleared away. With the lack of power, people are running out of food and clean clothes.  Also, having no power is expensive if you're on a limited income. 

Everything in the freezer is destroyed and must be thrown out.  People have to go through the expense of finding laundromats for cleaning clothes. They have to drive a distance away to find a gas station that has power. Non-perishable food is more expensive. Workplaces are disrupted and closed, so some people aren't getting paid.

It has been very warm and humid in and around Gary since the August 11 storm, with nights being particularly sticky. Without air conditioning, sleep has become difficult.

Schools have also been closed in most of Gary, and other areas of northwestern Indiana. 

An NPR piece from Friday puts the danger in perspective:

"Courtney Page-Tab, an Indiana University Indianapolis professor who studies community resilience, said health concerns grow each day of a prolonged outage. With many people using generators poor ventilation can lead to carbon monoxide poisoning. In addition, those reliant on medical devices risk having them lose their charge, while refrigerated food once safe could pose health risks as it spoils

'Nine days is a long time for a community to be without power,' Page-Tan said." 

The winds in Gary reached 99 mph during the ferocious August 11 storm. Roughly 300 utility poles and 44 power transmission poles need to be repaired or replaced. And we're not even talking about the countless electrical lines that have to be hooked up again.

"These aren't simple repairs.... These are systems that are being rebuilt," said Melody Birmingham, an executive at NIPSCO's parent company. 

The frustration is widespread as it can get, though. Republican Indiana Gov. Mike Braun said the situation is "unacceptable' and the power company needs to "step up, take this seriously, and restore power now." 

 Gary is a majority Black city and was hit especially hard by the storms. Some Gary residents think they are being ignored, possibly for racial reasons. 

Birmingham, who is herself Black, said NIPSCO is not overlooking low income residents. She said rumors to that effect are coming from social media. "We have areas that are probably affluent where we still have customers out as well.....This has nothing to do with race orally type of division," she said. 

However, I have to wonder about Gary's infrastructure. The storm was clearly strong enough to wreck power poles and utility lines in the strongest, best designed systems. But I have to wonder whether Gary  with its predominantly black population and relatively low income, was ignored by NIPSCO's maintenance plan over the years. I wonder if prior negligence made matters worse in Gary. 

I hope somebody seriously investigates that. 

However, several other factors not related to society or racism were at work. 

This was a derecho, with an embedded tornado. Tornadoes have narrow paths of destruction. Had just a tornado hit Gary, there would have been power outages in just a section of the city. And since the area of tornado damage would have been relatively small, power would have been restored fairly quickly. 

But this was a derecho, which is an intense, widespread batch of thunderstorms covering a wide area. The 90+ mph winds took down trees over a huge area, plunging all of Gary and surrounding towns into darkness.

The storm was widespread, so of course the damage to utilities was. Which is part of the reason why it's taking so long to fix things. 

It had also been very wet in northwest Indiana before the derecho. Repeated rounds of torrential rains and severe thunderstorms softened the ground and weakened trees. When the August 11 storm hit, the winds had a much easier time knocking down the trees. Many of those trees tore down power lines as they feel.

All that said, the long power outage raises question as to how storms will affect underrepresented communities in the future. 

The U.S has an immense and growing gap between the rich and poor. It's the new Gilded Age, but this time it's worse. 

Affluent communities often have underground utilities, and if something goes wrong, repair crews are at their beck and call. 

In poorer communities, utility lines are frequently not maintained all that well. In the short term, an intense El Nino is helping make storms more ferocious. In the long term, climate change is doing the same. 

One byproduct of a warmer world could well be more and longer power outages, especially in low and moderate income communities. 

Utility companies have some options when it comes to girding for climate change storms. They can cut back vegetation away from power lines more aggressively.They can strengthen poles and equipment and build in greater redundancy in the electrical system.  

In the end, we're going to have this problem over and over again. The climate is getting more extreme, and the U.S is generally getting poorer and poorer at maintaining our infrastructure. 

Prepare for long periods without electricity in the coming years. 

Showery Vermont Sunday, Might Be Thundery Depending On The Atmosphere. So-so Weather To Start The Week

A hibiscus flower on my back deck blooms amid the
very steady temperatures we've had this month so far.

We had another nice comfortable day in Vermont Saturday, though, as expected it was nicer the further north and west you went. 

Skies were mostly sunny in the far northwest, but rather cloudy southeast. High were in the 70s to a couple 80 degree readings in the sunshine northwest. 

Today will not be so nice with showers and maybe a strong thunderstorm or two. More on that in a minute, but first, some weird Vermont climatology. 

Yesterday's highs spotlighted a remarkable steady trend in temperatures. In the twelve days since August 10 daily high temperatures have ranged only between 73 and 82 degrees, as measured in Burlington.  In that respect I guess you can call our recent weather boring. Especially since those temperatures are close to normal. 

WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consul recently noted on Facebook that this is the time of year that normally has the least day-to-day variation in temperature. Average is four or five degrees difference in temperature day to day in August. 

But this stretch has been much more than that, with just nine degrees difference over 12 days. The same period last year had high temperatures ranging between 70 and 98 degrees. So things aren't always this steady in August.  

I think the lack of variety in temperatures stems from the fact it's still summer. We don't yet have the powerful cold and warm fronts that make Vermont days wildly different between, say, Monday and Tuesday. 

Also, ground and water temperatures are near their peak this time of year, and that tends to moderate the temperature.

Remarkably, over the coming seven days, the National Weather Service says afternoon highs will remain almost within the range we've had for nearly two weeks now. Between now and next Saturday, daily highs in Burlington are forecast to range between 75 to 84.

For now, then, if you don't like the weather in Vermont, you have to wait much more than a minute for it to change. 

Unless you're talking about cloud cover and rainfall. For the next week or so, expect rain to pop up randomly from time to time. The sun will be in and out of the clouds. Here are the details. 

TODAY

Kind of a confusing day in the weather department. Here's why: Virtually everyone in Vermont should get rain today, but most of us won't see much of it. But a few places could have some heavy downpours. 

There's also mixed signals on whether any thunderstorms this afternoon and evening might get strong or not. 

As forecast, a storm is going by to our west, taking most of its heavy rain with it. But that storm is swinging a weather front our way. It'll come at us from the west. 

The timing is such that the best chance of showers and storms would be in the afternoon and early evening. That's the time of day with peak heating, which is great if you want strong storms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk - level 1 of 5 alert level - for severe storms. That would mean there would be a couple isolated incidents of severe weather in Vermont, but most of us will be fine. 

If any severe weather does get going in Vermont today, it would take the form of very local areas of damaging winds or hail.

Complicating the forecast is some showers this morning. Those showers were working their way northward through Vermont this morning. The patchy morning rain and overcast might be enough to squelch instability in the atmosphere. That, it turn would prevent most thunderstorms from forming. 

We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out, I guess. It won't rain all day, so you can get outside. If you are outdoors, especially on the lakes, head inside if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, or if you get a weather warning or special weather statement.

Highs today will once again be in the 70s to near 80, and it will feel a bit more humid than it's been

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Weak low pressure spinning in Quebec should keep clouds and the risk of mostly light showers going both days. In a flip flop from Saturday, southern Vermont valleys should see the best weather with more sunshine and a much lower chance of showers. 

Northern Vermont, especially in the Green Mountains, will see more clouds and a better chance of showers. Those areas could pick up another quarter to a third of an inch of rain. Not all that much, but anything is helpful while we await a soaking rain that's still not in the forecast.

Highs both days should be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

At the point, it's looking like a return to nice weather. Warm, too with highs in many places getting to 80 degrees. Thursday's forecast high in Burlington is 84, which isn't that wild for this time of year, but it would still be the hottest day since August 9.

The warmth on Thursday might be tempered by clouds arriving from the next weather system, so we'll see.

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

Another batch of showers looks to come through Friday. Those could linger into Saturday. So far, this systems does not look impressive

 

Today Is Another Nice Vermont Summer Day. Tomorrow Brings Showers, But Probably Not Enough

A pot of flowers enjoys this morning's sunshine in 
St. Albans, Vermont. We've been watering these
plants since  not enough rain has been falling from
the sky. A little rain is forecast tomorrow

 We promised a perfect Friday weather day and that is what we got. 

Nothing was wrong. Temperatures were perfect, skies were blue with just a few puffy clouds. And somehow, despite all the wildfires burning out West and in Canada, there was no smoky haze in the atmosphere. 

The weather for the weekend won't be as nice as yesterday. But the rest of today should be OK, and Sunday probably won't be a complete washout. 

I had a late night, so I'm doing my morning report really late so, let's get into it

REST OF TODAY

Sunshine should  generally hang on, as forecasters have delayed an expected increase in clouds. Some clouds will work in during the afternoon, but it should remain a nice one. Judging from this morning's satellite photos, southeast Vermont will likely have more clouds that the northwest part of the state. 

High temperatures should be within a few degrees either side of 80. 

SUNDAY

We're still lookin at two storms going past us, one to the east, one to the west. The weak coastal storm to the east will take almost all of its rain through eastern New England. The storm to the west, moving into Quebec, will take most of its rain through western New York and on toward Ottawa and north of that.

That western storm should swing a weather front toward us, leaving mixed opinions on how that will affect Vermont weather. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says instability in the atmosphere will be pretty lame, so if any thunderstorms do manage to get going they won't be particularly intense

Meanwhile,  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning there could be an isolated storm or two that could produce damaging winds. Severe weather under this scenario wouldn't be widespread, but there could be a trouble spot or two

In any event, most of us won't get that much rain tomorrow afternoon and evening. Except for places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm, we should expect a quarter inch of rain or less.

High temperature should get into the 70s and low 80s, and it'll feel little more humid than it's been lately. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

The storm, such as it is, will swirl up on Quebec for a couple days, sending somewhat cool breezes and some moisture our way. That means partly to mostly cloudy skies and showers. Those showers should be few and far between in southern valleys, but pretty frequent far north and in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

The showers won't be particularly heavy. Northern areas might pick up another quarter inch of rain, while southern spots will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less. We could use much more rain than that, but I don't see any real soakers on the horizon. 

Wild Storms, Tornadoes Hit Mid-Atlantic States While We In Vermont Keep Enjoying Quiet Weather. We Need Rain, Though.

A waterspout turned tornado
seen here damaging a 
beach resort on Long Island, NY.
Severe weather and tornadoes
hit the Mid-Atlantic states,
but we in Vermont stayed
on the quiet sidelines.

We in Vermont should be very thankful the weather system that just threw clouds across Vermont on Thursday didn't hit us head on.

The storm unleashed tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and flash flooding across the Mid-Atlantic states. 

A tornado ripped through Dover, Delaware of all places. A Kraft Foods plant was also damaged. Two hotels were badly damaged, and the city was strewn with broken trees, debris an downed power lines. Streets were flooded.  Miraculously, no injuries were reported. 

On Long Island, in Nassau County a waterspout came off of Reynolds Channel from Far Rockaway, Queens, and came ashore at a beach club. About 30 cabanas at the Sun and Surf Beach Club were damaged or destroyed by the likely tornado.  Luckily, there was only one minor injury, to a worker at the beach club. A state of emergency was declared in Nassau County because of the likely tornado.

Another possible tornado hit the city of Columbia, in central Pennsylvania, partially collapsing several buildings. 

Up here in Vermont, of course we were bystanders to all that, thank goodness. The clouds were a bit thicker than forecast, but not by much. Some rain actually worked its way into far southern Vermont, with Bennington reporting 0.2 inches. So a bit of needed water down there.

It seems like it's getting kind of dry here in Vermont, despite the scattered, sometimes even violent thunderstorms we've seen this month. The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, has expanded the area of abnormally dry conditions in the Northeast Kingdom. That dry area now encompasses nearly a third of the state.

"Abnormally dry" is a condition that is just shy of a drought. 

Not much rain is in the forecast, either. As usual, let's get into the daily forecast

TODAY

It still looks like today will be the pick of the week in terms of weather conditions. We started the day quite cool, with dawn temperatures within a few degrees either side of 50 amid the usual patches of fog.  Autumn is creeping up on us. 

The day will turn out gorgeous, with mostly sunny skies, low humidity and highs well into the 70s, possibly near 80 in the warmest valley floors. Then, we enjoy Another clear, cool nigh.

SATURDAY 

Increasing clouds but still nice, highs in the 70s to near 80. A couple light showers could work their way into southern and eastern sections of the state during the afternoon and evening. 

SUNDAY

A risk of showers, but unfortunately, it looks like soaking rains will go by to our west and to our east. One low pressure system will move northward west of here, going through the eastern Great Lakes into western Quebec. Another, small but potentially wetter system will move northward near coastal New England and then head toward Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. 

Vermont will be caught in the middle. Which mean we'll have clouds and a shower risk, but light amounts of rain since most of the energy to produce downpours will be to our west and east. 

That said, a few showers could have locally moderate to briefly heavy rain, but that will only hit a small percentage of us. As it stands now, it looks like most of us will have a quarter inch of rain or less. There might be little more than that in far southern parts of the state.

MONDAY

The two storms I mentioned above will consolidate in northern Quebec. That will send cool, sort of moist air down in our direction. That means partly to at times mostly cloudy skies both days. Light showers should be scattered about, especially in the north and in the mountains. 

The cool north flow won't grab as much cold air as it could this time of year. Sometimes this weather set up keeps daytime temperatures in the 60s. Instead, we should be mostly in the 70s, with some 60s in the Northeast Kingdom

 

Trump Cheating Blue States With Disaster Relief

Vermont received FEMA disaster aid after the 
catastrophic July, 2023 floods, shown here. But that
was during the Biden administration. If another 
flood happened now, Trump very likely wouldn't
approve disaster aid because too many 
Vermonters voted against him. It's Trump
disgusting retribution against perceived enemies

 Things have gotten so bad that if a disaster strikes your blue state, you won't get assistance because the Orange Cockwomble, Donald Trump is butt hurt you didn't vote for him.

As Politico reported on July 29,  Trump earlier this summer overruled his own agencies when he denied disaster aid for four Democratic-led states.

The latest issue involves New Jersey, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, who were seeking federal disaster funds to help recover from a massive, record-breaking blizzard this past February.

FEMA field offices verified that the damage qualified for disaster assistance, but Trump overruled them. Presidents have sole authority to grant disaster relief to states, but historically, until Trump, presidents never overruled the field offices. 

Presidents Since George W. Bush and before Trump approved all 69 state requests for snow assistance, except for one, Politico reports. The one denial was because FEMA funds had been mishandled. 

This is a continuation of Trump ignoring disasters in Democratic-led states. Politico says Trump has rejected disaster aid for Democratic-run states at the highest rate in the entire 47-year history of FEMA. Meanwhile, Trump has approved nearly 90 percent of disaster aid requests from states run by Republicans. 

Politico continues: "He approve just 23 percent of disaster funding requests from states with a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators since returning to office 14 months ago. For states with a Republican governor and two Republican senators, it's the opposite - Trump has approved 89 percent of their requests."

In all previous administrations, there has been no discernible bias in presidential disaster declarations.  Democratic and Republican-led states got equal treatment. Until Trump. 

Interestingly, during the first Trump administration, his pattern of approving disaster assistance almost exactly matched previous administrations. It was only during the current term that the disparity became apparent. 

Since taking office for his second term, the Associated Press says Trump has approved 65 requests for major disaster declarations and denied more than two dozen others. 

On top of all that, Trump is taking longer to declare disasters than any other presidential administration.

Trump's spokesperson Abigail Jackson, wrote, "There is no politicization to the President's decisions on disaster relief."

Riiiiiight.  

Jackson also explains the slow approval on Trump conducting a more thorough review than any administration before him.  Yes, of course, sure. Can I do a rolling eye emoji here?

Democrats in Congress have asked the Government Accountability office to look into the criteria of how FEMA determines whether to recommend disaster declarations from Trump. But even if there's some sort of smoking gun at FEMA, that won't stop Trump from politicizing all current and future disasters. 

Two of the most recent disasters to hit the United States were the severe floods in Indiana and the extreme wildfires in and around Spokane, Washington.  Indiana is a red state. Washington is a blue state.

Two different states, two different disasters. But both have caused a lot of heartache and loss for residents of those states

Will Trump help Indiana and snub Washington? My guess is yes. 

It should be obvious to everyone except Trump and his minions that economically strapped individual, towns and states can't handle mega disasters on their own. But Trump only cares about himself. 

We knew that before he became president. But too many Americans didn't care, and here we are.