Global Temperatures In February Cooled In The Most Minuscule, Inconsequential Way; U.S. February

February, 2026 was the worlds fifth warmest on record.
La Nina might have cooled the month a little, but
 still coming in fifth warmest under that La Nina
is disconcerting. It should have been cooler, if
not for climate change. 

After oh, so many months in which global temperatures were the warmest, second warmest or third warmest on record, February maintained a "cooler trend" of sorts that started in January. 

But it was so scant that this February was still among the top five warmest on record for the world says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.

They write: 

"February 2026 was Earth's fifth-warmest February since records began in 1850, with a surface temperature 2.12 degrees F (1.18 degree C) above the 20th-century average. The 10 warmest Februaries on record have all occurred since 2016 and this month marked the 47th consecutive February with an above average temperature." 

For the past couple of years, it's been hard to find spots in the world during particular months that were chillier than the 20th century average. They were there, but few and far between. 

In February, the global temperature map was still overwhelmingly orange and red, indicating that most everyone was warmer than average.

But there were slightly more small cool patches than I've seen in a year or two. Those places were a section of the Arctic just north of Canada and Alaska; the southeastern United States, Scandinavia, northern Australia and a small pocket in southwest Africa. 

There were, as per the course in recent years many spots that were far warmer than the long time average from the 20th century. They include the western United States, especially the Southwest;  far northeastern Canadathe central North Atlantic Ocean; the Middle East; northwest Asia, parts of northern and eastern Africa, and parts of the western Pacific Ocean. 

Both January and February were a slight departure from recent years. Most months her the past there years or so were the warmest, second warmest or third warmest. So seeing two months in a row that were "mere" fifth warmest is a bit of a change. But not much of one.

It appears that in January and February, the world was probably feeling the fullest effects of the La Nina, which tends to cool the world.  If the world "cools" because of La Nina and the first two months of the year are still the fifth warmest out of the past 176 years, that's not great to say the least. 

Also, the ten hottest Februaries have all occurred since 2016.

NOAA predicts that La Nina will fade during the spring, and chances are we'll have an El Nino by summer or fall. El Ninos tend to warm up the world, so an El Nino risks taking the world to new heat heights, beyond the record years of 2023 and 2024. 

Global temperatures trends usually lag behind the onset of La Nina or El Nino, so my guess is we won't feel the effects of the likely oncoming El Nino much this year. But in 2027, watch out!

UNITED STATES

Map shows by how much temperatures were 
above or below normal during February, 2026.
The western two thirds of the U.S. was a blowtorch

The continental United States had its fourth warmest February on record, marked by another month of bizarre winter heat. Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Wyoming all had their warmest Februaries on record. Including those states, 19 states had one of their top ten warmest Februaries. 

The immediate East Coast from New England to the Carolinas was the coolest region relative to average. 

But those areas did not come close to breaking records.  Rhode Island came closest, if you ca call it that, logging in its 36th coldest February out of the past 132 years. Massachusetts was close, coming in at #38 on the list of chilliest Februaries 

Here in Vermont, we came in with the 50th coldest February in the past 132 years.

February also turned out to be the nation's fifth driest on record.

Interestingly, despite a record-setting blizzard on February 22-24, New England was very dry. Rhode Island, the state hit hardest by that blizzard, had its 11th driest February. It was even drier elsewhere in the region. 

Maine had its second driest February. It was the 7th driest in New Hampshire, 8th driest in Massachusetts and 10th driest in Vermont. 

The dry weather was widespread throughout the United States. Mississippi had its driest February on record. Other states in the top ten driest were South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Louisiana. 

The dry weather through the central an southern Plains contributed to numerous damaging wildfires. Those fires grew worse in March. 

Only North Dakota was a little warmer than average, coming in with its 32nd wettest February.

March so far is coming in as a real contender for the hottest third month of the year in the United States. It could even beat out the notorious March, 2012 for unseasonably early heat, a feat many thought virtually impossible. 

But climate change seems to make anything possible, which is a frightening thing. 

Meteorological winter, December 1-February 28, was the nation's second warmest winter on record, driven by ridiculous winter heat in the west. Incredibly, nine large states in the west had their warmest winter on record, while seven others scored in the top 10 warmest. 

Parts of the Northeast were on the cool side, but only clocked in at around 30th to 40th coldest, so nothing remarkable on that side.  

Vermont: Hope For A Brief Thaw, Then A Couple Days Of Winter, And Then, ????

Hoping this will be one of my last truly wintry views
of my St. Albans, Vermont yard until, well, next winter.

After our expected dusting of snow materialized for many of us yesterday and last night, we're opening our Tuesday morning clear and chilly in much of Vermont. Though it was still quite cloudy in the Northeast Kingdom. 

That cloud arrangement led to a bit of a role reversal this morning. Western Vermont was clear longer, so communities that are usually warmer than most other places - Burlington and Bennington, got down to 18 degrees this morning. Virtually the rest of Vermont was in the 20s. 

Turns out it won't be the gloriously clear day we hoped for, though. Clouds will come in during the afternoon as a weak, completely lame disturbance starts to breeze by to our north.  It'll still get to near 40 degrees, though. 

Good! I didn't bother shoveling the recent snows, figuring daytime sun this time of year would melt it instead. My driveway is now an icy, treacherous mess. It does look like the ice will start to melt today and continue through Thursday. I hope. 

Our lame little disturbance tonight will at most throw a snowflake or two at us. Tomorrow should be roughly a rinse and repeat, with a little sun yielding to clouds.

Those clouds are associated with the next iffy storm we're watching. So far, at least, the forecasts keep trending that storm just to our north. If that's the case, it'll be mostly rain. 

If this forecast holds, we might see a tiny bit of wet snow and light rain with the warm front Wednesday night. Thursday would be dry most of the time, until rain showers arrive later in the day. For now, the temperature range looks wide on Thursday, with highs in the mid 40s at the Canadian border to 60 in warmer valleys near the Massachusetts border.

That range in temperature reflect the usual uncertainty in the storm track. It could still end up going further south than forecast, which would radically change the forecast. The rainy weather would turn into a snowy mess north. But for now, we're going with rain, fingers crossed. 

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

Whatever happens with that storm, we do know for sure a blast of wintry air from Canada will freeze us back up nice and solidly Friday and Saturday. Friday might well be another day, like a few we've had this month, in which the high temperature comes right after midnight. 

The day itself will stay below freezing except in the warmer southern valleys. Same is true for Saturday.

It seems like everything about this now-dying winter comes back to "worst since 2019."  As measured in Burlington, we've had 59 days since winter began in which high temperatures stayed at or below 32 degrees. That is - of course -  the most since the winter of 2018-19, when they're 61 such days. As mentioned, we'll maybe add one or two more subfreezing days toward the weekend. 

By the way, the most subfreezing days in one winter was 93 in the winter of 1969-70.

Anyway, that cold snap will start to wane Sunday. Average temperatures are continuing to rise fast, so whatever happens Friday and Saturday will probably be the most intense cold we feel until next November or December. 

"Impossible" Extreme U.S. March Heat Made Possible By Climate Change

Map depicting where record highs were set last Friday.
Pink dots were where all-time high temperatures records
for March were broken. Climatologist are very hard
pressed to recall when, if ever, all time monthly
highs were established over such a large area. 

Climatologists are absolutely stunned. 

The temperature over the past few days in the western and central U.S have been beyond insanely high the past few days. Worried scientists say this would not have been possible without climate change. 

The heat has frightened millions of non-scientists in the West, too. . This could be a harbinger of never before imagine heat in the future. 

It's only March.! Read through the following reports of record heat and tell me if these temperatures  even seem possible this time of year. 

RECORD HIGHS OBLITERATED

On Thursday, the national record for hottest March day was broken when it reached 110 degrees not far from Yuma, Arizona. That beat the old national record by two degrees 

Then Friday not one but four weather stations not far from Yuma, Arizona reached 112 degrees, breaking the national record for hottest March day that was set the day before. 

The record was only one degree from the national record for hottest April day.  The old record was set the day before.

The 112 degree readings were on both sides of the Colorado River, so California and Arizona set new statewide records for hottest March day on record.  

A total of thirteen states from California to South Dakota had their hottest March day ever. To be clear, these aren't just individual cities, these are statewide records. 

Theses include places that are often wintry this time of year. Vermillion, South Dakota reached 97 degrees. Three locations in Wyoming got up to 90 degrees. Luverne, Minnesota was at 88 degrees.

After a record warm winter and now this March heat wave, a few spots in Montana, a few plants are showing signs of new leaves, - 30 days ahead of schedule. Parts of South Dakota and Wyoming are also running nearly a month ahead of schedule. 

Northern Mexico is also experiencing record March heat, too. Hermosillo, Mexico reached 108.5 degrees, setting a new national record for hottest March day. The old record was 105.6 degrees. 

Back in the United States, in higher elevation Flagstaff, in northern Arizona, the hottest ever March temperature there was 73 degrees, set on March 17, 2007. Then this month came along. Last Tuesday, Flagstaff tied that record. On Wednesday, it beat that record by three degrees. Then on Thursday, the temperature in Flagstaff reached 84 degrees. 

That broke the 2007 March record high by 11 degrees. It also broke the all time April record by four degrees. 

In the infrequent case in which a weather station breaks an all-time record for a given month, it seldom break the record by more than a degree or two. On very rare occasions, a new high might exceed the old mark by three or four degrees. But 11 degrees? And breaking the following, warmer month's record by four degrees?

Flagstaff wasn't the hottest place in this heat wave, but it was probably the scariest. 

PHOENIX

Meanwhile down in the desert in Phoenix, the record books were rewritten in a similarly frightening fashion. But it's dangerously hot there. 

Prior to this year, the hottest it had ever been during March in Phoenix was 100 degrees.

Daily highs on March 18 through yesterday were 102, 105, 105,105 and 102 degrees, all obviously record highs The next six days in Phoenix are all forecast to be somewhere between 98 and 102, and each would be record highs. That's 11 consecutive record highs, which is insane, a word I keep using. 

Phoenix seems to have entered a new era of extreme heat under climate change's spell. 

Eleven consecutive record highs are almost unheard of, but not quite. An American city had 21 consecutive days with record highs in September and October, 2024. That city was Phoenix, and that stretch set a record for most consecutive record highs in any U.S. city ever .

The all-time record highs for September and October were also set in 2024 .

All but one of the 10 hottest years in Phoenix have been since 2012, and the top five hottest have all been since 2014. The two hottest years in Phoenix were last year and the year before.  This year is off to a start that would break that record for hottest year once again. 

EFFECTS

World Weather Attribution has already examined the ongoing heat wave and has concluded it would have been virtually impossible without climate change. 

The winter was also record warm in the western half of the United States. This is the second consecutive month in which an all-time record high was established for an entire month for the entire nation. That new record was 106 degrees in Falcon Dam, Texas. 

The record warmth in the West resulted in a paltry snow pack in the mountains. Now, this heat wave is melting what little was left.This summer, water shortages could affect the 40 million people who rely on the Colorado River. 

Wildfires are already burning way ahead of the normal season in the western U.S. Unless there's a long and sustained change to a wetter weather pattern, the fire season in the summer of 2026 could also get very scary, very fast.

We here in Vermont are not participating in this particular, record smashing heat wave. Back in 2012, we were enveloped in another March heat wave that shattered records in the eastern two-thirds of the United States. More than 7,000 record highs were established in the U.S. during that mid-month spell.

Here in Vermont, Burlington had five consecutive daily record high temperatures, including an unprecedented three consecutive days that reached at least 80 degrees.

At the time, the March, 2012 heat wave was considered almost a once in a lifetime experience. We'd never see more widespread hotter March temperatures than that.

And here we are, easily outpacing 2012. 

It's an ominous sign for us and the rest of the world. 

 

It's Burlington Vermont's Snowiest Season In 7 Years, But That's Not Saying Much

Heavy snow seen her crushing one of my lilac bushes
in the winter of 2018-19.  That was the last winter
we had more snow than this winter. This year's snowfall
is running close to normal. The winter of '19 was our 11th
snowiest on record. So we're lucky this year, I guess. 

The bad news: It's going to snow again today in Vermont. The good new: It won't amount to much.  

The snow we get today will be because the sniveling, drizzling, frizzling mess of a storm from yesterday is still dying to keep harassing us a little. 

The storm is now for to our east, but it's leaving a pool of frigid air high overhead as a parting gift.  

That pool of chilly air up there adds enough instability to the air to set off snow showers through today and into tonight. 

Most of us will see an inch or less. But the central and northern Green Mountains, along with many areas of the Northeast Kingdom, could collect two to five inches today. 

Today will also be cold, to put my Captain Obvious hat on again. It'll barely get into the low 30s in most of Vermont. Temperatures should stay below freezing in the far north, and upper 30s in the warmest valleys far south. 

Be careful under foot, too. As expected, all that slush from yesterday froze solid. And there were still a couple patches of freezing drizzle here and there to start the day.  The freezing drizzle will yield to the snow showers soon. Tis the season winter becomes like a guest who stays way too long. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Looking ahead, we have a bright side: The next in our series of storms coming in from the west looks like it will be mostly rain. Fingers crossed, anyway, as we've had some unpleasant surprises with the last two storms. 

Before we get there, Tuesday looks like the only day we'll have with no precipitation. With sunshine, it should get up to near 40.

A warm front will stir up some clouds Wednesday, and drop a few rain and/or snow showers, mainly north. 

It looks like the next storm coming by on Thursday might go to our north, which means mostly rain. But  forecasts issued this morning have it going barely to our north. If the outlook for the storm sinks its path  southward just a bit, we're looking at another snow north/rain south scenario.

Stay tuned on that one. 

Whatever happens with Thursday's storm, we get a very cold for the season blast of frigid air Friday into Sunday.  We'll stay below freezing all day Friday and probably Saturday, and overnight lows will be in the single numbers to low teens. That would be a solid 15 degrees or so colder than normal for this time of year. 

This being early spring, that cold won't last forever. Somewhat warmer air will start to come in next Sunday afternoon.

SEASONAL SNOWFALL

The snows of the past week or so have brought Burlington's snow total for the season to 79.4 inches. That's the most snow in seven years, but as you might imagine it's not all that much compared to some winters. 

If by some miracle we receive no more snow this season, this winter's snow would be in the middle of the pack. The current total of 79.4 inches would make this the 51st snowiest winter out of the past 124 seasons. 

More snow is inevitable (I mean, look at today's forecast, above), but we won't get to the total we did see seven years ago in the winter of 2018-19, when we had 103.6 inches. Well, at least I hope we don't see another two feet of snow or so this season, which would bring us to that level. 

I'll do another update on these stats several weeks from now when I'll be reasonably sure we're done with snowier the season. 

Brief Vermont Sunday Evening Update: Drizzle To Become Patchy Freezing Drizzle As Tonight's Temperatures Drop

The slush I photographed outside my house late this 
afternoon will be slippery ice by the time I get up
in the morning. Bits of freezing drizzle overnight
won't help, either. 

That slush in northern Vermont is going to freeze soon, while those areas, and some other parts of the state face the prospect of freezing drizzle tonight. 

Most of the snow fell in far northern Vermont, as we alluded to this morning.  It turned out to be much less widespread than predicted. Almost everybody south of Route 2 had less than an inch. 

The highest accumulations we saw were also less than the highest accumulations we thought we'd see. Those higher amounts include 5.5 inches in West Burke; 5.4 inches in Maidstone and 4.5 inches in North Hyde Park.

The rest of the day turned into the very definition of miserably dreary. The far southwest corner of Vermont did break out into slightly warmer air, as Bennington made it to 48 degrees. The rest of us endured low clouds, fog, drizzle and a cold light rain.

That's about to get worse, As of late this afternoon, temperatures in northern and central Vermont will slowly sinking, and the moisture in the air was not going away. 

That sets us up for freezing drizzle tonight. It will be more widespread than the patches of it we had Friday night. 

A special weather statement from the National Weather Service tells us patchy freezing drizzle will continue off and on all night and into tomorrow morning. And, all that slush and water is going to freeze up overnight, too. The freezing drizzle itself will only create a thin scrim of ice, but that's enough to slow you down on the way to work tomorrow.

There were already a number of traffic accidents earlier today as a bit of snow, then freezing drizzle then drizzle that didn't quite melt the ice kept things hectic for Vermont State Police. 

By afternoon, the character of the day will change as the atmosphere starts getting windier and more unstable. That will send some snow showers flying through the air here and there, but it won't about to much.

UPDATE: Hawaii Blasted By Floods AGAIN. This One Is The Worst Yet

More cataclysmic flooding hit Hawaii over
the weekend. The flooding has been coming in
literal waves there all winter and early spring.

It seems like I'm posting about Hawaii and floods all the time, but they keep getting hammered. The latest round of flooding on Friday was the worst yet during this long, wet Hawaiian episode.   

This time the flooding focused most of its fury on Oahu. It is now said to be Hawaii's most severe in at least 20 years.  

As the Associated Press reported, "Muddy floodwater smothered vast stretches of Oahu's North Shore, a community world-renowned for its big wave surfing. Raging waters lifted homes and cars and prompted evacuation orders for 5,500 people north of Honolulu. Authors cautioned that a 120-year old dam could fail."

At last report, the water peaked behind the dam and was now receding, ending an immediate threat to collapse. However, more torrential rains here on the way, so the crisis is not over. 

About 230 people were rescued and 10 were hospitalized with hypothermia because they'd been in the water for so long. 

Gov. Josh Green said the cost of the storm could top $1 billion, including damage to airports, schools, roads, people's homes and a Maui hospital in Kula. "This is going to have very serious consequences for us as a state," Green said.

Crew searched by air and water, looking for people who had been stranded. But idiots have been getting in the way of that effort as they flew drones to get images of the flooding.  

The area affected was already sopping wet from previous ones when a new one swept in Friday,  dumping up 

The same stalled weather pattern that caused flooding last week contributed to this new round of deluges.  A massive heat dome that shattered March hot temperature records in the western and central states is still gumming up the works over the Pacific Ocean. 

I'll soon have another post on the incredible March heat in the Lower 48.

Last week's Kona low - a winter storm near Hawaii - was able to move on, but a stalled weather front helped unleash the torrents in Oahu. 

Another Kona low was meandering north of Hawaii today. It was drawing deep tropical moisture into Hawaii, raising the risk of more flooding today. As of this morning, the heaviest showers were focusing in and around Maui. 

Starting tomorrow, the Hawaiian islands will start transitioning toward a more normal pattern of easterly trade winds. Showers will continue in parts of the islands that normally see showers, but it won't be anything unusual. Everybody in Hawaii is hoping they can final start getting back to normal.

 

For Second Time In A Row, Vermont Storm Had Tricks Up Its Sleeves

Another two and a half inches or so of snow
greeted me and our vehicles this morning in
St. Albans, Vermont. The forecast for this
storm has turned out accurate for places
near the Canadian border, but for other 
places in Vermont, well........

This is the time of year when meteorologists might be tempted to give up on the science and flip a coin. 

Early spring is when you tend to get the most surprises and we have some today. As many early Sunday morning risers have already noticed. 

SUNDAY MORNING SURPRISES

Most of Vermont had little or no snow as of 8 a.m. Had forecasters been right the snow would have started two hours earlier. Snow, and some rain ended up arriving after 8 a.m.   

Despite continued forecast to the contrary, I'm doubting many places along and south of Route 2 will see as much snow as had been forecast. But who knows? We seem to be in the season of surprises. 

Meanwhile, a heavier a slug of precipitation was heading into southern Vermont. The further south you go, the warmer it is. Bennington was at 39 degrees as of 8 a.m., so I imagine they'll see mostly rain. It'll be interesting to see at what elevation you have to reach in the southern Green Mountains before it's mostly snow. 

Another big surprise was the dump of snow early this morning near the Canadian border. That snow did arrive in the hours before dawn, as forecast. From what I can tell, areas within 30 miles of the border have gotten at a few inches of snow. There was 2.6 inches of new snow at my place in St Albans as of 9 a.m.  

As of 8 a.m., the snow in St. Albans had turned to a light sleet, with perhaps a few drops of freezing rain mixed in. That's a clue to what we'll deal with this afternoon and evening. A special weather statement from the National Weather Service in South Burlington noted that most of the Champlain Valley was switching over to light freezing rain or drizzle.

When the precipitation gets a little heavier, it goes toward snow. When it gets lighter, freezing drizzle and drizzle. I noticed at around 9 a.m. drizzle changed back to a burst of snow as a zone of heavier precipitation seen on radar moved in. 

As of 9 a.m., temperatures ranged from near freezing to a degree or two above in the Champlain Valley. However, central Vermont is at risk for some freezing drizzle for a few more hours. 

So that annoying icy stuff should just turn into an annoying misty cold spray in your face this afternoon.  

But it will probably go back to freezing drizzle tonight, which will make you have a workout early tomorrow morning scraping a thin but firm coat of ice off at least some of our windshields. It will also make untreated surfaces like driveways and sidewalks icy traps that could have you tumbling to the ground. 

FORECAST BUSTS

I think this storm forecast is turning out to be more of a bust than Friday's. In Friday's storm, forecasts prior to the snow were obviously wrong in the Champlain Valley. But the forecasts for northern Vermont east of the Greens and southern Vermont were actually quite accurate. 

I'm not busting the chops of the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington. They do an awesome job. But, these kinds of things keep happening. I continue to wonder - albeit without evidence so far - that steep National Weather Service cutbacks under the Trump administration, is compromising the data that goes into computerized forecasting. 

Bad data equals bad outcomes.

I'm not the only one who is wondering about this. As we reported recently, Michigan's governor and two U.S. Senators sent out inquiries regarding forecasts ahead of deadly tornadoes in southern Michigan earlier this month. 

 I also have to acknowledge that early spring storms have always been notoriously hard to forecast, so that is definitely one important factor in all of this.  Besides, forecasting for this storm wasn't entirely a bust. We knew yesterday the Northeast Kingdom would probably get the most snow, and that seems to be the case. 

And interestingly, in the northern Champlain Valley up by St. Albans and Highgate, it appears the forecast will come out spot on. 

We also thought southern Vermont valleys would get at least some rain and little snow and that also seems to be happening, 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's a scary prospect to forecast given what I've said above, but those meteorologists working on our behalf need to attempt it. After tonight's patchy freezing drizzle, Monday looks like a somewhat unpleasant day, but something we should be used to in March.

That means mostly cloudy skies, snow showers and a chilling north wind. Highs will only make it into the low 30s at best for most of us. Maybe upper 20s in northern hills, and perhaps upper 30s in southern valleys.

Monday night looks cold, of course, with lows in the teens to low 20s. Tuesday looks like the pick of the week with sunny skies and temperatures near 40. That's near to just a smidge cooler than average for this time of year.

Our next storm looks like it will come along Thursday. I don't dare take a stab of what will happen with Thursday's system just yet. But it will probably be a capricious one, just like Friday's storm and today's weather