Looming El Nino Getting More Likely To Become "Super" It Means Ever More Extreme Weather On Climate-Fatigued Planet

A forecast map for the equatorial Pacific for 
late summer an early fall shows a strong El Nino
In the box, it shows much above normal water
temperature in the central and eastern Pacific
near the equator. 

Scientists have been telling us for months now that a new El Nino global pattern is about to start. That type of thing tends to warm up the world. Combine an El Nino with climate change, and you can take the global climate to new, hot, heights. 

Now, we're being told this could well turn into a "Super El Nino" and that makes the news even more potentially grim. At least if you're not a fan of punishing droughts, super storms and dangerous, record smashing heat waves.

Yes, that sort of thing is going on already, but a Super El Nino could make things much, much worse.   

Per the Washington Post: 

"During a typical El Nino, a warming patch of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean influences what regions experience droughts, floods, extreme heat, hurricanes and declining sea ice. During relatively rare super El Nino events, happening once every 10 to 15 years on average, the effects may be stronger, more persistent and more widespread."

The Washington Post reports;

This El Nino "could break the record for El Nino intensity set in December, 20125, when sea temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific reached 2.8 degrees Celsius (5.04 degrees Fahrenheit) above average."

Each El Nino is different, because underlying natural weather patterns can affect it. And climate change makes the effects of El Nino even less certain. The effects of El Nino will probably peak during the upcoming winter. Overall,  some of those effects include:

Drought:

Sone tropical countries, like the Caribbean and Indonesia, could face serious droughts.  So could central and northern India, where a super El Nino can disrupt and even stop the annual monsoon season. Serious droughts have an excellent shot at developing in portions of Central Africa, Australia, the Philippines, Central America and northern Brazil.

The  El Nino could be really bad news for the western United States. Coming off a record warm winter, and unprecedented March heat that has already set the stage of water shortages, the El Nino could create an especially hot, dry summer in the West. 

However, El Ninos can cause unusual humidity in the West. That could lead to some beneficial rains, but also severe storms that would extend into the Plains.  Usually, the worst of the United States severe weather season usually tapers off in June, but this year, it could help extend the season longer, if the El Nino develops fast enough. 

While certain areas of the world would get much drier under a super El Nino, the overall threat of flooding in the world would increase due to higher levels of atmospheric moisture brought on by the el Nion

Storms and Hurricanes

On the bright side, the potential Caribbean and Central African droughts would be related to a suppressed Atlantic hurricane season.  Disturbances coming off the west coast of Africa would be weaker and less frequent, lessening the chances that any of them would develop into hurricanes. 

Much more importantly, El Nino would contribute to strong upper level winds in areas of the tropical Atlantic. Those strong upper winds cut wannabe hurricanes off at the pass, destroying tall thunderstorms before they can organize into a tropical storm.  

The U.S. got a break last year with no landfalling hurricanes. An El Nino could make us lucky for the second year in a row. But that comes with a big caveat. El Ninos tend to reduce the number of hurricanes. But it doesn't eliminate them. It takes only one hurricane to cause a cataclysm. We're not entirely safe. 

There will be enough cataclysms with or without hurricanes anyway. Next winter, if the strong El Nino develops, the South, including Florida, would become cool and stormy, with the risk of wintertime severe storms and tornado outbreaks. 

We'd also see an increase in flooding across Peru and Ecuador, sections of northern and eastern Africa and in the Middle East. 

Heat Waves

Virtually every place on Earth would be at risk for punishing, record heat waves. Africa, parts of the Middle East, Africa, Europe, the southern U.S. and possibly Australia would be most at risk. 

If this super El Nino does in fact get underway, 2027 has an excellent shot of becoming the hottest year on record, even besting the especially torrid 2024, the current record holder. Because of a lag between the development of an El Nino and how it affects global weather patterns, I doubt this year will be the world's warmest. 

Climate change has created a sort of step-up trend in which pretty much every El Nino creates a new record for global warmth. Between El Ninos and during La Ninas, which should cool the Earth, global temperatures tend to just level off.

"Due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system cannot effectively exhaust the heat released in a major El Nino event before the next El Nino comes along an pushes the baseline upward again," Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb said in the Washington Post. 

 VERMONT EFFECTS

It's always nearly impossible to tease out what effects an El Nino might have on a pinpoint area like Vermont. But we can give some general thoughts that aren't exactly a forecast, based on what we've seen in past super- El Ninos

The most noticeable effects here are warm winters. During the 2016 super El Nino, Burlington what was its warnest and second warmest winters on record in 2015-16 and 2016-17.  (The warmest winter is now 2023-24)

The 2015 El Nino might have helped contribute to the hottest December readings in Vermont that year, breaking records set December, 1998 during a previous strong El Nino. 

Chances are next winter won't be the kind of long, drawn out, persistently cold affair we endured this year. 

As for storms, it seems that Vermont is at a higher risk of trouble, but no guarantees. It's hard to know whether El Nino had anything to do with it, ut the Great Ice storm of January, 1998 and serious flooding in June and July of that year were doing a super El-Nino.

I also recall some spring floods during the 1982-83 El Nino, mostly along Lake Champlain due to persistent rains and snows in April and May, 1983. 

Although we had some notably wet months during the 2015-16 El Nino in Vermont, there wasn't really much in the way of serious flooding, though there were some local flash floods in the warmer months. 

 

Coldest Vermont/New York April Morning In A Decade; Spring Returns This Afternoon. Believe It Or Not, Fire Danger By Tomorrow?

A wintry April scene in my St. Albans, Vermont yard
this evening, but by noon, most of this snow will
be gone, and we can get back to our regularly
scheduled spring. 

As expected, we had some winter cold to start this clear April morning, and some areas around Vermont and New York really got into this January-like spell. 

Saranac Lake, New York was down to a wild minus 3 this morning, which the latest in the season subzero temperature I've seen in the region in decades..

I did find one later in the season subzero reading in Saranac Lake. It was 3 below there way back on April 12, 1926.

Here in Vermont, I saw that it had gotten to at least 3 above zero at Lake Eden, so it's   a cold hollow or two in the Northeast Kingdom could have touched zero early this morning. 

Elsewhere, Montpelier got down to 14 degrees, tying their record low for the date, first set in 1982.   

Burlington did not come close to its record low, which is 11 degrees back in 1972. It got down to 16 degrees, though. The last time it was colder than that was a decade ago when in reached 14 degrees on April 5, 2016.   

I noticed the birds, which have been making a racket most mornings, have been pretty silent this morning. I think gardens might have lost their shot at magnolia flowers later this morning. However, the daffodil, crocus and hyacinth shoots that have been poking up should survive this just fine. 

Also, spring staples such as lilacs should also be fine, as the buds are still currently pretty tight and small. 

TODAY:

With the strong April sun out there, temperatures should rocket upward super fast this morning, topping out in the 40s this afternoon.  That's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. But light winds and that sun will make it feel even warmer than it is. 

Where there's snow on the ground, it'll melt very fast, except in the shade. The humidity today will be at rock bottom.  It's hard to melt even a little snow in the shade when it's this dry, so the dark corners of your yard might still have snow on them at the end of the day. In the dry sun, the snow should disappear in a flash. 

FIRE DANGER?

This seems far fetched, given that many of us are started the day with snow on the ground, but by tomorrow, we'll actually have a  fire danger here in Vermont. 

In today's super low humidity, the snow will basically evaporate in the sun. Many areas of Vermont don't really even have snow on the ground this morning, especially in the Connecticut River Valley, so the moisture on the ground will dry quickly. 

There's no real greenery yet this time of year, so all those dry grasses and weeds and such are just kindling waiting to burn. Tomorrow, the sun should stay out, the humidity will stay very low, and the wind should pick up. 

In the Champlain Valley, winds by tomorrow afternoon should gust to 35 or even 40 mph. Elsewhere, most places should see gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range. That's more than enough to spread even a small fire across the dry landscape. 

It might seem awfully sudden to go from snow to a fire hazard, but that's really common this time of year. High pressure systems from Canada are particularly dry this time of year. It's also a windy season and, as noted, things on the ground haven't greened up yet. This is pretty much peak fire season in Vermont. 

We've already had one large fire this year in Ferrisburgh that burned through 100 acres or so on March 31,  So we're already off to a not-great start this year.   

SPRING

On the bright side, spring weather will continue. It should get well into the 50s tomorrow. If a cold front holds off long enough on Friday, we could see some 60s.  It does look like a little rain might come through during the day or evening on Friday - those traditional April shower.

After a somewhat cooler but definitely not cold Saturday (highs in the low 50s), we could have a day or two threatening the 70 degree mark early next week. 

April Snow Over-Performed In Vermont Today, Oddly Frigid Night Tonight Before Spring Returns

Back to the middle of winter early this evening in 
St. Albans, Vermont after a day-long snowfall. Small
dark splotches on ground in foreground are 
daffodil shoots coming up. 

As expected, it was a snowy one in much of Vermont today. It seemed the most persistent snow was over the Champlain Valley and the central and northern Green Mountains. 

Had this snow come through at night, several areas in the Champlain Valley and elsewhere in northern as Vermont would have had perhaps two to five inches of snow.  

Almost all the snow today hit during daylight hours. Though it was below freezing out there when it was snowing, enough heat came through the clouds from the high angled April sun that some of the snow melted as more while was falling from the sky. 

If you measured on pavement or bare ground, there was little if any snow, because of that solar radiation. This was good, because main roads, especially in low elevations, stayed pretty much just wet. Roads today weren't as bad as they could have been, but I did see some slick spots out there.

On grassy services and elevated decks, the snow piled up. On Facebook, people in such disparate places in Vermont as Milton and Jamaica reported to the National Weather Service they had two or three inches of fresh snow on their decks. 

Still, this snow turned out to be a bit on an over-performer, especially for this time of year.  Some mid and high elevations really got some serious accumulation. Walden, Vermont reports 4.9 inches of new snow. About 3.5 inches of new snow graced Camels Hump State Park. 

Here in St. Albans, I measured 1.4 inches of new snow on my deck as of 6 p.m. It was still snowing a little at the time, but it was tapering off and I don't anticipate much additional accumulation. Either here or anywhere else in Vermont. 

In Burlington, the National Weather Service reported 1.6 inches of new snow so far today. That's nowhere near the record, because a large snowstorm hit on this date in 1974, dumping 7.3 inches of snow on Burlington. 

We escaped anything like that, so I guess we were lucky, but it still looks like the middle of winter out there. At least in the Champlain Valley and northern Greens. 

Southern Vermont got their inch or so of snow early this morning, and ended up getting very little during the day. I noticed areas east of the Green Mountains south of Route 2 appear to have gotten little or no snow, too.

 TONIGHT

Now, there's snow on the ground in most of northern Vermont and New York, It's really unlikely to melt before sunset. Satellite imagery early this evening showed the disturbance causing the snow is moving out and clearing skies were moving in from the north and west. 

Those skies should be pretty clear by a few hours after sunset. Winds will go light and variable, so the stag is set for one of the coldest April nights in a decade, or more than a generation, depending on how things work out. 

The last time Burlington had an April temperature as cold or colder than what's anticipated tonight was in 2016 when it hit 14 degrees.  The last time it was colder than that was 10 degrees in April, 1995. 

It doesn't look like much snow accumulated around Montpelier today, but they still have an excellent shot of reaching a record low of 14 by morning. 

I'll  have updates, of course, tomorrow morning. 

 

Snowy April Day Underway In Vermont, Should Clear Out Late, Spring Still Coming

Traffic camera shows a snowy Route 9 in Searsburg, Vermont
around 7:30 this morning. An initial burst of snow hit
far southern Vermont. Much of the rest of the state
could see briefly heavy snow showers today. 

 If it hasn't snowed where you are yet as you read this in and around Vermont, it will soon. 

A small disturbance is blowing through, consisting oa a reinforcing shot of cold air that'll keep us quite chilly through tomorrow morning. 

A burst of pretty heavy snow has already crossed Bennington and Windham counties in southern Vermont, depositing a quick inch of snow. 

It left roads looking pretty slippery around Bennington and along Route 9 heading up and over the far southern Green Mountains. 

Scattered snow showers were across parts of central Vermont as of 8 a.m. Another main band of snow appeared to be twisting around the mini-storm's center not far from Watertown, New York. It was gradually heading east.

I'm not sure whether that band will hold together completely, but almost all of the state has a shot of a quick inch of snow, if it hasn't already happened. There's a slight question as to whether the snow band will be able to pivot into the far northern Champlain Valley, but for now, we should assume it will. 

In any event, the snow could briefly come down pretty hard anywhere in the state. That means that we'll have to harken back to our winter driving habits a bit as the roads will get briefly slick. Since this is happening in April during the day, some of the snow will tend to start melting off shortly after any bursts of heavier snow ends. 

Hopefully that means any problems with icy roads won't last long. This isn't a full blown winter storm, after all. Just a nippy springtime hassle. 

Yep, another snowfall forecast map. Perhaps the last one
of the season? Don't count on it. This map shows many
of us could get a quick inch of snow. There might
be locally heavier surprises in the mountains

Some places might have more than one burst of heavy snow.  Certain spots in the state could technically get up to two or three inches of snow. 

But it would be an inch that melts, followed by another inch that melts again. So nobody except the high elevations should have much  more than an inch of snow on the ground out of this. 

That said, small mini-storms like this in April can work with amazingly lame amounts of atmospheric moisture and create a good local dump of snow, so keep an eye on it through the day.

 A few isolated spots - mostly up high -  could end up with several inches of surprise snow. No guarantees, but just a possibility there. 

Our little disturbance should start to head on out late this afternoon, taking its snow showers with it. 

FRIGID TONIGHT

We're setting ourselves up for potentially the coldest April night since 2016.  What is likely, hopefully, the last Arctic high pressure system of the season should settle right over the top of overnight and early tomorrow. That means light winds and clear skies - the perfect recipe for a frigid night. 

Or almost perfect. If there's snow cover, it tends to get even colder in these situations. Many of us will still have some snow on the ground overnight, so that could make things even chillier.  The bottom line: Most of us will be in the frigid teens by the time dawn breaks tomorrow. A few of us could be in the single digits. 

That's damn cold for April. Maybe even close to record territory in a few places. Burlington's record low of 11 tomorrow is completely safe.  But it could get close in St. Johnsbury, where the record low is 10 above on Wednesday. The most likely candidate is Montpelier. Their record low tomorrow is 14 degrees, and the forecast low is also 14 degrees.

SPRING RETURNS

Don't worry, we still are convinced spring will come back in a hurry. And stay for awhile this time. Tomorrow afternoon will still be cool for this time of year, but 40s won't seem bad after today. 

Thursday and Friday will pop right up into the nice 50s to low 60s before another cold front comes in. But the next cold front is a spring front, not an Arctic one. So Saturday will probably only be about 50 degree, which is still reasonable.

On top of that, a stiff southwest wind could bring us up to near 70 degrees next Monday if thick clouds and rain hold off until the end of the day. Stay tuned on that one! 

Unprecedented Heat From March Still Has Climatologists, Others, Losing Sleep At Night, But It's All A Scary Sign Of The Times

March was so hot in the western and central U.S. was so
extreme it's still keeping climatologists up at night.
These kinds of "unprecedented" hot spells and 
extremes are now becoming regular occurrences
in this age of climate change. 

There's patches of record warmth remaining in the United States as we make our way through the first week of April, but the extreme, whackadoodle heat of March has subsided. 

Scientists are still agog from March, which is easily going down in history as among the most extreme, over the top, seemingly impossible climate-related events hot spells ever seen.  The heat wave completely rewrote the March weather record books in the western and central U.S. 

It was the kind of event that keeps climatologists up at night.  Especially since these "impossible" events are coming along in a steady stream now. Each one bigger than the last. And each one potentially more deadly. 

We're lucky this one hit in March, months before summer. Had it happened in July, who knows how many deaths would have been created by just the hot days themselves? Even so, the heat set the stage for a potential summer of out-of-control wildfires and deep water shortages. 

Already, fires are burning months before they should. A raging wildfire threatened homes in Moreno Valley , California last week. It was the kind of fire you see in parched late summer and early autumn and not moist March. But the rules have changed. March is the new summer, apparently.  

Nebraska just experienced their largest wildfires in history, burning an area larger than Rhode Island. 

And we've probably only just begun with the fires.

THE EXTREME MARCH HEAT

It's hard to know where even to begin with the accounting for March's heat. 

AccuWeather gives just a glimpse of the breadth of the March heat wave: 

 "During the unprecedented mid-March heat waves in the central and western United States, more than 8,200 daily records and more than 2,000 monthly records were broken at weather stations across the West."

Incredibly, 17 states set new March record highs.  And these are large western and central states, not smaller Eastern states where it's a bit easier to accumulate numerous record highs. Many of these states broke monthly record highs, only to have those records broken in subsequent days. 

The nation saw its hottest March temperature on record at 112 degrees. It came close to setting the April national record of 113 degrees.

No fewer than 16 western cities not only broke their all-time highs for the month of March, they also broke or tied the mark for April, which is beyond insane. 

On March 19 alone, nearly half of the 900 or so long term U.S.. weather stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network set or tied daily record highs. 

More than four dozen major reporting stations with data since at least the 1960s had their warmest March in history.  Major cities that had their warmest March on record, - most of them by a wide margin - include Dallas, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Albuquerque, Denver, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco. 

Once all the numbers are crunched, it looks like Colorado will end up with a March that was three or four degrees warmer than any other in the past 130 years or so. For a state to break its statewide record for hottest March by a degree is wild. By three degrees ----there's no words for it. 

We still don't have confirmation as to whether March, 2026, is the nation's hottest on record. That will come in a week or two. But it was at the very least as warm as what was considered the impossibly hot March of 2012.

CHAIN OF EXTREMES 

Climate change doesn't just warm up the world uniformly. It sets traps. Springs surprises. 

As Yale Climate Connections notes: 

"Since climate change is also fundamentally disrupting atmospheric circulation patterns, we now have mega-unprecedented extreme events occurring with regularity. These circulation changes allow the biggest regional and local heat extremes to intensify by a much larger margin than the roughly 1.4 degrees Celsius increase in average global temperature since preindustrial times."

Honestly, climate change contributes to new extremes every weeks, or so it seems. But the standouts - the weather events that make climatologists and other scientists deeply worry about the future  - seemed to begin almost exactly 14 years prior to this March's heat.

In March, 2012 most of the heat focused on the central and eastern United States.  Thousands of daily record highs were set, as were hundreds of all time record highs for March.  Among those thousands of record highs, nearly four dozen were broken by at least 22 degrees, which is beyond insane. Four record highs were smashed by 30 degrees. In a handful of cases, the low temperature on a particular date on March 12 was warmer than the record high.

 "An initial assessment led by Martin Hourlong at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories concede that human-produced warming likely contributed on the order of 5% to 10% of the magnitude the heat woven March 12-23, 2012, The report added: "the probability of heat waves is growing as (greenhouse gas)-induced warming continues to progress," notes Yale Climate Connections. 

Still, we figured we wouldn't see another March, 2012 in our lifetimes again. Until we did.

The March heat of 2012 came at the tail end of a La Nina, and led to an extreme, punishing drought across the nation's middle that summer.  We're in the same situation now. It might not be just the western mountains that are running out of water. 

Much of the central and southern Plains are already in serious drought. Will this key crop growing area further dry out? There's already plenty of other stresses out there with food production - political instability, tariffs, war, a feckless president.  

We are set up for a rough summer, and March probably just made it much, much more rough. 

WATER SHORTAGES?

Colorado's snow pack ended the month at less than a quarter of average. Eighty-nine of 94 snow pack measuring stations were at record lows by the end of March. 

It's not just Colorado. It's virtually all of the West. Per the Guardian: 

'This year is on a whole other level.' say Dr. Russ Schumacher, a Colorado State University climatologist, speaking about the intense heat that began rapidly melting the already sparse snowpack in March. 'Seeing this year so far below any of the other years we have data for is very concerning."

On April 1, media went out to join California water officials to take a measurement of the water content of snow at a spot in the Sierra Nevada. Normally, the group would be standing on five feet of snow. This time, they were standing on a muddy field, flecked with melting remains of snow patches. 

Snow water equivalent is a measurement is the amount of water of that would melt out of the snow that's still on the ground.  This figure is now terrifying throughout the West. 

The overall snow water equivalent in the Sierra Nevada on April 1 was just 18 percent of average for this time of year.  In the Great Basin, snow water equivalent was just 16 percent of normal. In the lower Colorado River basin area, including most of Arizona and Nevada, it was 10 percent. The Rio Grande, which covers New Mexico, Texas and Colorado was at 8 percent. 

Because of a record warm winter, the snow pack was far below normal before March arrived. Everyone hoped for a "March Miracle," as some bad years in the past were relieved by cold, stormy Marches. Not this year. Not by a long shot.

If this were just one bad year, we'd be OK. But the six lowest April 1 snowpacks in California have happened since 2007. The state thought it was finally catching a break in January as it fully emerged from drought for the first time since in a quarter century. 

Reservoirs are pretty full in California, thanks to warm rains in recent winters that filled them even though the state couldn't build a decent snowpack. So at least for this year, the problem for most of that state would be intense wildfires but not necessarily widespread water shortages. 

Elsewhere, things are not nearly so serene. 

In the Colorado basin, Lake Mead is 25 percent full. Lake Powell was only 33 percent or so full at last check. Both lakes usually rise somewhat in the spring due to snow melt. It doesn't look like that's really happening this year. 

Water managers area already urging conservation in the West. 

Salt Lake City has called on residents and businesses to start conserving now, with a goal of cutting overall water usage by 10 percent, Also, as the Guardian reports:

"Across Colorado, there are local orders that list lawn watering, and in Wyoming, residents were warned that full restrictions on outdoor irrigation could come come as early as May."

Farmers and ranchers across the West are also having to make hard decisions and big adjustments with smaller allocations of water and a recognition that supplies will be strained. 

TIMING

What if a heat dome like the one we just saw in March hit during the middle of summer? And hit in a place not accustomed to extreme heat. 

We found out in late June and early July, 2021 when an unprecedented - here's that word again - intense, heat settled into southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest of the United States.

 All-time heat records in the Pacific Northwest were not just broken, they were obliterated. Portland Oregon reached 116 degrees. Salem, Oregon was 117 degrees. Rainy, cool Seattle reached 108 degrees.

The heat of 2021 was even more punishing in British Columbia, Canada. On June 29, 2021, the town of Lytton, British Columbia reached 121 degrees, the hottest temperature ever recorded anywhere in Canada. By a long shot. Before this heat wave, the hottest it had gotten anywhere in Canada was 113 degrees back in the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. 

The next day, Lytton burned down in a massive wildfire brought on by the scorching heat and drought. 

The 2021 heat wave is estimated to have caused at least 1,400 deaths in Canada and the U.S. 

What if a heat dome like that in 2021 settled into the heavily populated eastern United States and southeastern Canada? And what if it lasted a month, not a week? Nobody is prepared for such a nightmare. 

However, we'll find out soon enough. Perhaps this summer. Or the next. And it won't be pretty. 

 

Monday Morning: Back To "Winter Echo" In Vermont For A Couple Days

This garden, as of a this morning covered with a dusting of
snow and a mess of dead leaves and disheveled ground,
will someday be pretty again. Sooner rather than
later, we hope!

 Just for a reminder I live in Vermont, I woke up to a dusting of snow on the ground and some snowflakes in the air outside her in St. Albans, Vermont. 

That's not the least bit odd for early April, I know. But, everyone is anxious to see our world finally start to green up after a long, brown, gray, colorless winter.

Don't worry, the big green-up is coming and soon, but we'll have to deal with the usual "winter echo" we get every spring, in which winter weather continues to reverberate after the main show is done.

This year's episode of "winter echo' is pretty mellow compared to some years, so we have that to be thankful for, too.

COLD SPELL

This semi-return to winter really kind of started yesterday. It never really was able to partly clear up and warm up much across the Green Mountain State yesterday. It stayed rather chilly and raw all day even as rain tapered off as expected in the afternoon. 

Colder air coming in last night left us that lovely dusting of snow. At least in some parts of Vermont. It looks like the mountains picked up and inch or two of snow. Vermont Agency of Transportation web games showed is snowing pretty hard again around Jay Peak as of around 8 a.m. this morning. 

This morning's snow showers might tend to dry up during the day today, though they might not entirely die out. I imagine they might especially hang on like a bad party guest in the northern and central Green Mountains off and on all day. 

Highs today will only make it to around 40, give or take, which is about ten degrees chillier than average for this time of year. 

But then it gets worse.

TUESDAY

A reinforcing shot of frigid Canadian air is about to give us a January in April day tomorrow. Highs across most of northern Vermont won't get above freezing, and warmer southern valleys should mostly stay at or below 40 degrees.  

For comparison, valleys north should be around 50 degrees during the afternoons this time of year, while southern valleys should be in the low 50s.

This reinforcing shot of cold air will also bring through a disturbance during the day that should kick off quite a few snow showers. That it's coming through during the day means snow accumulations should be limited. Maybe an inch or less in the valleys and a couple inches in the mountains. 

It might be one of those days in which  you actually get a couple inches of snow, but never actually see that much on the ground. With the strong sun angle of April, you might get a half inch of snow in a burst, then it melts, to be followed by another half inch that melts, etc, 

The orientation is a little in question, so it's hard to tell who gets the most snow. It doesn't really matter that much, because it won't be a lot. Especially first thing tomorrow morning, that snow might be creating slick spots on the roads, though, so keep that in mind.  

The April cold will be a little more intense than we've seen in recent years. The National Weather Service is going for a high tomorrow of 32 in Burlington and a Wednesday morning low of 19. 

If that happens, it'll be the first time since 2016 that a day didn't;t get above freezing in April. It would also be the first time since 2016, and the second time in 20 years that it gets into the teens. It'll be a close call.

Before climate change kicked in, we would much more often see subfreezing highs in April and lows in the teens and even single numbers during the month. The world is warmer now, so we're not used to cold snaps that were once routine, but are now kind of exceptional. 

THE WARMUP

We're not going to flip to anything record warm or anything like that, but you'll find the second half of the week, next weekend and beyond much more palatable. Wednesday afternoon should still be cool after that frigid start, but the warm April sun will make it feel OK. 

It's hard to get a feel for exactly how warm it might get starting Thursday, but 50s and low 60s for daily highs looks reasonable at this point. That's somewhat milder than average, and we'll take it. Since the warm up looks like it will last at least several days, you'll start to see lawns green up a little, garden perennials sprout, and tree buds swell.

It's a promise. Despite "winter's echo," spring is inevitable. 

Sort Of A Stormy Easter Morning In Vermont, Gets Better Later

I know it's disappointing to wake up on Easter Morning to find it rather stormy out - rainy enough to soak and ruin your Easter bonnet and windy enough to blow it away. 

The first part of April is never pretty, and that was the 
case this Easter morning in St. Albans, Vermont. After
an expected throwback to winter, the progress of spring
will accelerate later next week 

But who the hell wears an Easter bonnet anymore? The Easter egg hunts might have to be postponed a bit, too, which might be a bummer.

But since this is all about ME!!!!!!, I personally like waking up on raw and wet Sunday morning in a cozy house. I can hear the wind blown rain clattering faintly on the metal roof, and the dull roar of winds still blowing through leafless trees, the gray skies, all starting the day quietly, contemplatory. 

We did - as expected - end up getting winds just as strong as the gusts we had Friday morning, but they came in the hours just after midnight, when we were less likely to notice them. The wind advisory that was in effect was justified.

Winds at the sandbar on Route 2 in Milton got to 59 mph. Jay saw gusts to 53 mph; Morrisville, 51 mph and Panton, 49 mph. There were plenty of gusts statewide in the 30s and 40s mph. Not enough to cause widespread problems but enough to rattle the shutters. 

Early this morning, roughly 2,800 homes and businesses had no power, mostly in the northern Green Mountains. 

REST OF TODAY/TOMORROW

The rain that moved in before dawn is now tending to suppress the wind somewhat. That rain should mostly move out by shortly after noon.  We'll end up with a third of an inch of new rain, give or take, so we're safe from any flooding. This afternoon will actually be OK, with temperatures hovering near 50, with breaks of sun and southwest breezes.

At least as measured in Burlington, there have only been two Aprils without so much as a snow flurry in Burlington (1941 and 2005).  This year won't join those two illustrious Aprils.

First of all, there's already been a snow flurry on April 1.  And more are probably on the way.  Progressively colder and colder air will start coming in this afternoon and night, setting the stage for some spring snow showers. 

Tomorrow will be chilly, but it won't be the worst of it. High should make it to the upper 30s northern highlands to upper 40s warmest southern valley floors.  There could be a few snow flurries in the mountains. 

THE COLD PEAKS

As the cold air continue to pour in Monday night and early Tuesday, more snow showers should blossom. For now, anyway, forecasts have measurable snow statewide by the end of the day Tuesday, though I have my doubts about this for warmer southern valleys. 

Tuesday will be a throwback to winter, with many of us receiving a dusting to an  inch of snow. Some  northern towns will probably never get above freezing on Tuesday afternoon. Tuesday night will get into the teens to low 20s. Spring will be on temporary hold.  Don't worry, happens every year. 

SPRING RETURNS

Strong high pressure, which initially will contribute to our nippy April weather, will warm us up as it passes nearly overhead and then off the east coast Wednesday.  By Wednesday afternoon, it'll get well into the 40s, which is still a little cooler than normal. But the strong April sun will make it feel much better.

After that, we get a huge break. April can be notoriously tempestuous, but the second half of next week and next weekend look anything but. High temperatures in the 50s and low 60s will get spring flowers and plants and tree buds going, and no notable storms are on the way. 

Sure, this Easter morning is gray and brown and muddy and ugly, as early April is in Vermont. But that promise of spring keeps getting more and  more real.