Chilly And Rainy In Vermont Again Today, But Big Changes Are On Their Way

My "pink tree" as a call it, bloomed out this week despite
relatively cool weather. This tree was just about dead
when I bought the property nearly 20 years ago, 
but I managed to save it and I've gotten it to thrive. 

We endured another nippy May day on Wednesday, with the afternoon arguably being the coldest of the month. 

Light rainfall held temperatures in the 40s until evening, when the rain temporarily ended and parts of Vermont made it into the low 50s. 

That's still ten to 15 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Even the fleece I was wearing yesterday didn't seem warm enough. Shiver me timbers indeed!

Not far upstream in New York yesterday, though, things were different. Watertown and Fort Drum were at 61 degrees at 3 p.m. The air was warm an humid enough to trigger a few severe thunderstorms in western New York.

There was even a tornado warning for northwestern New York. I don't have any word on whether anything touched down, but if it did, it would have been not far from Pulaski, New York. That's an area south of Watertown that is much more famous for epic lake effect blizzards than it is for tornadoes. 

Our (sort of) proximity to severe weather and warmer temperatures is a sign that our cool weather will end soon. 

On the bright side, this morning was much warmer than in recent days. As a gray, rainy dawn broke, temperatures across Vermont were within a few degrees either side of 50.  That makes it probably the warmest morning since May 

Clouds and rain,  however, will give us one more cool day. But that's OK, we need the rain. Vermont got about a tenth of an inch of rain yesterday, give or take, so we still need a good soaking. Meanwhile, the warm weather that's been knocking on our door will finally begin to make its move into Vermont tomorrow. 

Here are the details. 

TODAY

The upper level low that was in New York yesterday has settled down to our south a bit, and is trying to funnel a band of deep Atlantic moisture into New England. Vermont is sort of near the western edge of that moisture, but we should still get a good soaking. 

If you're in the western Adirondacks or St. Lawrence Valley of New York, you're out of luck for rain today. You'll only get a little. But you guys got more rain than Vermont yesterday, so let's call it even. 

For Vermont, most areas should have a storm total of at least an inch of rain. That includes rain from yesterday and last night and whatever falls today through early Friday. 

The wild card is western Vermont. One decent slug of rain went through all of the state, including the Champlain Valley early this morning. Will the rest of the rain hit that area? This morning's forecast seems to say yes. Maybe places like Burlington and St. Albans will get slightly less rain than the rest of Vermont, but still get a little under an inch total.

But, if the moisture feed shifts just a tiny bit east, far western Vermont could get cheated. As of this morning,  the forecast seems to suggest after a bit of a morning lull, western Vermont will still share in the bounty of the rain. Fingers crossed. But if the rain doesn't materialize, now you'll know why. 

The big winner for Vermont in this storm looks like it will be southeastern Vermont. The U.S. Drought Monitor still has drought conditions in the lower Connecticut Valley, and New Hampshire, and western Maine. 

In fact in Vermont, this week's U.S. Drought Monitor, hot off the presses at 8:30 this morning, shows the drought expanded across a much larger portion of southern Vermont since last week. Drought now covers all an area from the Green Mountains east below White River Junction. 

Those drought areas should get the most rain today and tonight. We're talking a good inch or inch and a half, with locally higher amounts. 

So in a sense, this is a perfect storm. Not the violent, scary, deadly Perfect Storm of 1991, obviously. But a perfect storm of drought-denting rains, which should make everyone happy. 

The only unhappy aspect of the day will be the temperatures. The rain and clouds will hold us down in the mid and upper 50s. Normal highs this year should be between 65 and 70 degrees. 

FRIDAY

This will be our transition day toward what I call "pre-summer." During pre-summer, which usually goes from late May to mid-June, most days are pretty warm, in the 70s. You still get some nasty cool days that hold in the 50s, but other days are full-on summer with temperatures getting into the 80s or even to 90.

That's what we have coming up. 

Tomorrow might still be a wee bit on the cool side for this time of year. Early showers will give way to clouds, then some afternoon clearing. Instability in the air might allow Ma Nature to sneak in a scattered afternoon shower, but those should be few and far between. And those temperatures will get into the reasonable 60s. It'll be the hottest day since this past Sunday, and that's only the beginning.

WEEKEND

Ah! Pre-summer arrives full on. Under sunny skies, temperatures should soar way up into the 70s on Saturday. A weak disturbance might bring us a few scattered hit and miss showers Sunday morning, but it won't be anything widespread. The disturbance will probably knock temperatures back down to near 70 north Sunday, but southern parts of the state should still get well into the 70s. 

EARLY WEEK

It looks like we'll get a brief burst of full summer weather. It should get into the 70s Monday under sunny skies. That will be a great opportunity to install your window air conditioner. The reason for that is Tuesday. Unless something goes completely wrong with the forecast, it looks like Tuesday's highs could soar well into the 80s. And the humidity might creep up a tad.

We're not used to 80 degree weather, says Captain Obvious. The last time it was in the 80s in Vermont was during a record-breaking heat wave on October 5-7, 2025.

A cold front should arrive later Tuesday and Wednesday, which would knock temperatures back down tot the 60s and low 70s later next week. That's a long range forecast of course, so take it with a giant hunk of rock salt. 

 

 

Heartwarming Hay Donations After Extreme Nebraska Wildfires. But It Doesn't Solve The Climate Change Problem

One of the huge Nebraska wildfires back on March.
Photo from Nebraska State Patrol 

This spring, Nebraska burned. At least a large part of it did.  

Amid a drought and record breaking high temperatures that further dried out the landscape, high winds fanned wildfires that burned through  820,000 acres of Nebraska rangeland. 

The worst of the fires burned in March. One of the fires blackened 600,000 acres. The blazes left numerous ranchers without feed for their cattle. Damage estimates are at least $10 million. 

This is all bad news, of course. And climate change is a prime suspect again. An insane March heat wave contributed to the conditions that led to the huge fires.  World Weather Attribution reported that the March heat wave would have been virtually impossible without climate change. 

The fires burned through just about all of the 11,000 acre ranch Mike and Kayla Wintz lease in the middle of nowhere - deep in the Sandhills of western Nebraska. With the grass gone, the cattle couldn't graze, as CBS's on the road reporter Steve Hartman noted. 

Suddenly, after the fires. Wintz and other ranchers started getting phone calls. The callers said hay was on the way, and where should we put it. At last report Wintz has received $80,000 worth of hay, all donated. 

Highways in central and western Nebraska became busy with convoys of trucks carrying hay to desperate ranchers. Some of the hay came from as far away as South Carolina. The convoys became almost like celebratory parades, as school kids lined streets to watch the trucks, fully loaded with enormous bales of hay pass by. 

"Empathy, charity and grace," Hartman concludes. 

All true. Hartman is always the feel good reporter we need when we need to see someone acting like good humans should. 

Unfortunately, I'm not as kind hearted as Hartman. Don't get me wrong, I absolutely support and love this Nebraska "hay lift," for lack of a better term. And of course I support helping your neighbor in any way you can. Whether that neighbor is literally next door or half a world away. 

However,  like so much havoc caused by, or more often made worse by climate change, massive hay donations like we've just seen in Nebraska aren't going to solve the problem. 

In the first few months of 2026, major wildfires scorched over a million acres in Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma, Nebraska Public Media notes.

NPM continues:

"The amount of Great Plains land burned by wildfires tripled between 1985-1994 and 2005-2014, according to a 2017 study from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The number of incidents also increased from 33 per year to 117 per year."

 Judging from news reports about Great Plains fires in the past three years at least, that trend  detected nearly a decade ago by UNL researchers has continued.

There's always talk of "adaptation" to extreme conditions wrought by climate change. And people in the Great Plains can adapt to an extent. They can make homes and outbuildings more resisted to fire. Improve warning systems. But if there's a drought, strong winds and hot temperatures, there's little you can do to stop the grass from burning. 

While people are contemplating wildfires, the Plains might be in for a temporary reprieve. Climate change makes fires more likely, but so does La Nina. That weather pattern tilts conditions toward dry in the central and southern Plains during the early spring. 

Early spring is peak fire season. A potentially strong El Nino is poised to replace the La Nina. An El Nino more often than not tends to turn the southern half of the Plains wetter. 

Still, El Nino will end at some point. And so the fires will come back, possibly even more ferocious than this year's as climate change continues to heat the planet. 

Here is the CBS report. Click on this link to view it, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Not Necessarily "Nice" Vermont Weather In The Traditional Sense, But We Need The Rain And Gloom

After a long winter of snow prediction maps, it's nice to
post rain prediction maps. If this is accurate, most of us
should see an inch of rain by the end of the day Friday.

The Vermont weather forecast for today and tomorrow is great for people who prefer to stay indoors anyway. But not so much for those who like to spend time out in their gardens. 

But those gardens need drinks of water and those should get a Big Gulp serving today and tomorrow. 

For now anyway, the predicted amount of rain is pretty generous. This morning through Friday morning, the National Weather Service is predicting an inch of rain, give or take for most of Vermont. 

The Northeast Kingdom will probably get a little less than that. Some spots in central Vermont could close in on an inch and a half.

Of course, I'm sort of counting those proverbial chickens before they hatch. The arrangement of little storms and moisture flows over the next couple of days is touch and go and a little uncertain, so a lot can go wrong to cheat us out of a soaking rain. 

But if this rainy spell turns out as expected, we'l come closer to normal rainfall for this point in the season. 

Vermont still has a bit of a hangover from last year's drought. And precipitation so far this year is just meh, coming up short in most of the state. 

Through yesterday, May 12, Burlington has had 1.13 inches less precipitation than normal. That's not a drought, but it's definitely not sopping wet, either. Montpelier was 1.62 inches behind schedule in the rain department for the year so far. 

Rutland is even worse, running 2.3 inches under what we should have gotten up to this point in the year. North Springfield, an area of the state that is still official in drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, is short 4.36 inches of rain as of yesterday. 

Only the southwest and northeast corners of Vermont are closer to normal. St. Johnsbury as of yesterday was within a quarter inch or so of normal. Bennington was short by only about two thirds of an inch. 

The expected rain this week will narrow, but not erase the precipitation gap. 

Let's do the details:

TODAY: 

It dawned cloudy today, as expected. It was still a little frosty early this morning in eastern Vermont, but not anything particularly damaging to crops and gardens. 

It was in the 40s in the Champlain Valley. This might be a spoiler to the extended forecast, but - unless there's some real surprises in our future - I think the Champlain Valley's threat of frost has passed until this coming fall. The rest of Vermont, well, just hang in there. 

Rain was moving into Vermont as we approached the 9 a.m. hour. It looked like rain was coming down a pretty good clip in New York state, but I think it might lighten up a little once it embraces the Green Mountain State. 

Still, it''ll be a rainy, chilly day. Highs should only get into the 50s. We'll probably get a quarter inch of rain, maybe a little less in spots. The rain will tend to diminish this evening and early tonight. At least temporarily. 

TOMORROW

Also looking rainy. But there will be a bit of dance going on between the decaying upper level low that is now coming in from the west, a small storm we think will develop in southern New England tomorrow, and a stronger storm well offshore. 

But the thinking is that weird atmospheric dance should shove some Atlantic moisture northwestward to us here in Vermont, giving a continued soaking rain. The rain should be even heavier in eastern New England, but I don't expect anybody in the region to see any flooding. Just a good soaking. Again, fingers crossed.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Ahhh the warmth arrives. Friday should show slow improvement, as clouds and maybe morning showers should give way to some sun, especially north and west. It should get into the 60s, so not too bad!

And then, a warm weekend! Yes, that means highs right up there in the 70s. Balmy! almost summer-like, aside from the cool but not cold nights. And spoiler: Some forecasts bring us into the 80s by Tuesday. 

In other words, we get a nice reward after the chilly, rainy weather we're in for. 

 

Unexpected Clouds Rescued Most Of Vermont/North Country From A Nasty Freeze

The sky looked chilly over St. Albans yesterday, leading
to forecasts of freezes and frosts. It did get cold last
night, but it was a couple degrees warmer than 
forecasts, so no hard freezes. That was good
for vulnerable plants and crops.

For the most part, it didn't get quite as cold in most of Vermont overnight, thanks mostly to some unexpected clouds that covered the skies over northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Clouds tend to hold in heat, so it ended up a few degrees warmer than it otherwise would have been.

Under clearer skies, Bennington did manage to get to at least 31 degrees, and Rutland was at 32.  

Most of northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley were also in the low 30s, so there was at least light frost around. But we had no hard freezes except in the coldest hollows where the growing season hasn't really started anyway. 

The Champlain Valley remained mostly frost free, though Middlebury. a little south of that cloud cover, did manage to touch 32 degree.  It looks like Burlington bottomed out at a reasonable 39 degrees. which won't even be the coldest night this month. It was 37 degrees on May 8.

Until recent years, it would almost always get below freezing in Burlington during May. That has changed with climate change intensifying. Since 2011, May temperatures in Burlington have touched 32 degrees on only three occasions. 

Judging from weather forecasts, Burlington will not see any freezing temperatures this May, either. 

FORECAST

The good news is it's going to get wet. We actually need the rain. And eventually, it's going to get warmer. 

Today

The clouds in the north should at least partly clear out today.  If it all works out, we'll end up with a classic cool May afternoon. Sun will mix with clouds and highs will only reach the 50s, which is a good ten degrees cooler than average. 

With such a cool days in store, you'd think we'd be in for another frost and freeze risk tonight. There might well be areas of frost, especially in central and eastern Vermont, but overall, tonight will be a bit warmer than last night. 

That's because more clouds will be coming in. This will introduce a fairly long stretch of wet weather.

Wednesday/Thursday

There's some debate as to when the rain will start Wednesday. Could be early in the morning, could be in the late morning. But it's not going to be a nice day. Another stay indoors day for sure. It'll be rainy and cool, with chilly southeast breezes. Once again we'll  only get into the 50s. 

The storm coming in from the west will eventually transfer to a new, sluggish system on or near the New England coast. That will keep moisture coming inland across the region. That means on and off rain through Thursday. 

Early estimates say most of us would get between a half and three quarters of an inch of rain out of this, with maybe bit less right near the Canadian border.  A few spots central and south could get over an inch of rain. 

Friday/Weekend

That offshore New England storm will probably keep clouds and some showers going on Friday, but my early guess is it won't be a washout. And it'll be a little warmer, with highs in the 60s.

The weekend looks pretty good. There is a slight chance of showers, I suppose, but we'll also a fair amount of sun, fingers crossed. The bigger news is the temperature: It should get to at least near 70 degrees each day. 

The entire weather pattern is changing.  For the rest of May, chilly blasts of air will have a much more difficult time coming in from Canada than they did during the first half of the month. There might be a cool day thrown in here and there. But otherwise we'll launch into what I call pre-summer. 

The weather will be almost summery, but not quite. That means lots of 70s and for almost all of us, no chance of nighttime more frosts.

Let those gardens grow! 

Frost, Freezes In Vermont Tonight. Protect Those Gardens

Tree foliage frozen to death during a destructive 
freeze in May, 2023.  Freeze warnings and frost
advisories are in effect in and around Vermont
tonight. It won't be as bad as 2023, but 
sensitive plants and gardens will 
need protection tonight. 

After a cool, cloudy afternoon in Vermont we're in for a frosty night with freezes, so it's time to cover sensitive plants and protect crops.    

The clouds and light showers north will tend to evaporate as the sun goes down this evening. Temperatures this afternoon were only in the 50s, so readings won't have far to go to get close to the freezing mark. 

Eventually, skies will become clear, which would make it even colder.  

So: A freeze warning is up for all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom, the Champlain Valley and the lower Connecticut River Valley south of Springfield. 

In those areas covered by the freeze warning, expect temperatures to fall to between 29 and 32 degrees by dawn. The freeze could damage crops and gardens. 

We'll have to watch apple and strawberry growers and wineries. This won't be as bad a freeze as the one in May, 2023, which cost farmers and other growers roughly $10 million in crop losses.  

The freeze tonight will not feature temperatures as low as on May 18, 2023. Also, that year featured a really premature spring, much more than this year. So plants and blooms were further along than they are this year, which left them more prone to damage. The hard 2023 freeze also covered the entire state, causing damage all across Vermont. 

Still, this one could be expensive, if farmers aren't able to take measures to protect crops, or if it unexpectedly gets colder than forecast. 

The Northeast Kingdom is not under any advisories or warnings because the growing season has not really started yet in that colder corner of Vermont. 

A frost advisory is in effect for all of the rest of Vermont I haven't mentioned yet. Except Grand Isle County. The islands in Lake Champlain should stay safely above freezing due to the comparatively warm lake water that will temper the chill in the air just a little. 

There might be some frost away from Lake Champlain tomorrow night, too. But increasing cloudiness and a warming air mass means it won't be as cold tomorrow night as tonight will be. 

Spring Is The United States Storm Season: Dramatic Videos Prove It

Damage from an extreme hailstorm in Springfield, Missouri
in April. Video of the storm is in this post, Photo from 
Springfield Daily Citizen via Facebook

As we all know, spring is the tornado and storm season in the United States. That always leads to some pretty dramatic videos.   

We've got some of them here to let you gawk at Ma Nature at her angriest. Let's get right to it: 

During an outbreak of tornadoes on April 17, the town of Lena, Illinois was hit hard. The tornado was seriously wrapped in rain, so you couldn't see the actual funnel. 

And the parts of town that weren't' actually hit by the tornado were hammered by a wall of intense rain and wind that did its own damage .

The tornado itself was an EF-2 with top winds of 130 mph. 

The video is a web cam that recorded the maelstrom moving into the city. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Also, there's another Lena web cam that has a different perspective basically overlooking the entire town. Click on this link to view that one. 

In our next video, we see the benefits of obeying the safety rules when a tornado seems imminent. 

Two women were keeping track of a tornadic storm on their phones as they sat in the kitchen of a Minnesota home. 

When the wind suddenly picked up. The women quickly decided to run downstairs, with their two dogs in tow.  See in the video what happened next. Spoiler: The women made the right decision. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

On April 23, a massive tornado, an EF-4 with top winds of 170 mph, struck part of northern Oklahoma. It hit the southern edge of Vance Air Force Base before sliding along the southeast corner of Enid, Oklahoma.  It wiped out about 40 homes in a subdivision, but miraculously didn't kill anybody. There were ten relatively minor injuries.

The video below shows that as bad as this tornado was, things would have been much, much worse, had its path been the same, except displaced a little bit to the northwest. Enid is a city with a population of about 51,000. Had it gone through the middle of town, the destruction would have been extreme 

The video is a time lapse from a web cam that overlooks downtown Enid. You can see the tornado come  in from the right side of the view.  It eventually gets lost in an area of torrential rain, but it was still causing its damage even when it was invisible in the rain. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

Springfield, Missouri was hammered by a huge hailstorm on April 28. Some of the stones were at least softball sized, so you can imagine the damage. Sadly, the hail killed an emu at the local zoo. An unknown number of cars were damaged or destroyed, but the number of vehicles wrecked had to be in the thousands.  

At the Springfield-Branson National Airport, hundreds of cars left in the parking lot by people who flew to wherever were trashed, with busted out windows and huge dents. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"Some passengers had to be buses around 100 miles away to the airport in Bentonville, Arkansas because rental cars were damaged. (Airport Public Information Officer Ren) Luebbering said airport staff spent three hours covering the most badly damaged vehicles with donated tarps. 'We think we put 300 or 400 tarps out there on cars," Luebbering said. The airport warned online, 'Expect damage to your vehicle."

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Here's another view of the chaotic Springfield, Missouri hail storm. Again, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 On April 28, an EF-3 tornado caused a lot of damage in Mineral Wells, Texas. The tornado was wrapped in rain and hard to see. In this video. people in a car inadvertently drive to very near the edge of the tornado. The wind is howling on this freeway and debris fills the air. Pretty scary! As always, click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

During another round of severe weather in the South,  storm chaser Daniel Shaw was driving near Monterey, Louisiana. They didn't see any tornadoes, but the lightning really put on a show. The video shows plenty of lot of lightning strike and Shaw kept saying they are not getting out of the vehicle. 

The end of the video is what really shocks, literally. Shaw is parked in a Family Dollar parking lot when the building gets hit by lightning. Let's 

 As always click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that: 

Storm chaser Aaron Rigsby's videos often make an appearance in these video highlight posts I occasionally issue. This is not technically one of Rigsby's videos but he stars in it. 

That same batch of lightning barrages affected Rigsby. He was chasing severe storms in Mississippi when lightning struck the Toyota Rav 4 as he sped down a highway. The car is toast.  Rigsby said he is OK, but felt the buzz of electricity when it struck.  He got into another storm chaser's car to continue the hunt for tornadoes.

Inside Edition has the story. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below click on this. 

So here's something different: A time lapse of an enormous iceberg passing by the town of Ilulissat, Greenland on April 13.  Looks like a mountain kind of saying, "never mind me, just passing through, I'll be out of here in no time. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Frosty Times In Vermont As Long Awaited Warm Weather Is Postponed A Bit M

Late afternoon sun lights up this spring scene in 
my St. Albans, Vermont back yard on Sunday.
Cool weather will preserve the flowers for
awhile, but sensitive plants are staying inside
tonight because of a frost risk. 

Morning showers yesterday, some unexpectedly heavy in northwest Vermont, gave way to a beautiful, breezy and mild Mother's Day. But also as expected, that nice weather yielded to a frosty morning in parts of Vermont this morning.  

Most places away from the Champlain Valley were in the low and mid 30s, which brings us into frost territory. 

The cool weather will go on all week, as some changes in the forecast have postponed some long awaited warm weather. But those balmy conditions are still on the way. Eventually.   

Let's take a gander at this week's cool weather. 

TODAY

Clouds will mix in with the sun this afternoon, especially north and mountains, as a very, very wimpy little disturbance passes by. There might even be a light shower or sprinkle in a few spot. Highs will hold in the mid and upper 50s, which is about ten degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tonight will be the coldest of the bunch, and I'm sure the National Weather Service in South Burlington will issue another round of frost advisories by the time they release their updated forecasts this afternoon. 

I'm not sure yet, but unlike last night, I suspect the frost advisories might extend into the Champlain Valley. Lows should range from the mid and upper 20s in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom, to the low 30s in most of Vermont and the mid-30s in the Champlain Valley. Take those sensitive plants indoors! 

As readers of this here blog thingy probably know, I almost always say it could be worse, and I find receipts that prove it. 

For example, on this day in Burlington, 1963, the high temperature was only 40 degrees, the low was 30 degrees and we had some cold rain, mixed with a  trace of snow. 

And on this date in 1945, higher elevations in southern Vermont was blasted by a mid-winter style snowfall. Somerset and Wilmington got 15 inches of snow, and 10 inches fell in Dorset. In lower elevations. 5.5 inches of snow accumulated in Rutland. 

OK moving on. 

TUESDAY

Another cool, sunny day after the morning frost with highs in the 50s. Actually a very nice, comfortably cool day to get things down outdoors. Aside from the black flies, that is.  Tuesday night will get chilly once again, so frost will be an issue for the third night in a row. It should be a couple degrees warmer than tonight because clouds will start to cover the skies overnight.  

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Those clouds will lead to frequent showers starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing well into Thursday. I'm not sure how much rain we'll get, but it doesn't look like we'll exactly drown. This isn't a powerhouse weather system that's coming in. 

We'll be done with the frost, finally, as the clouds will keep overnight temperatures in the 40s. But those same clouds and showers will hold daytime temperatures down to within a few degrees either side of 60. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

The weather system from Wednesday and Thursday now seems like it might sort of stall out over the ocean east of New England. That will keep clouds here in Vermont Friday and maybe into part of Saturday. And that storm will blunt the expected warmup, but only temporarily. 

It should get into the low 60s Friday and well into the 60s to near 70. That would be the first time in a week with near normal temperatures. 

The weather pattern does seem like it wants to evolve into something better if you're a warm weather fan.  Instead of the flow from Canada we've had since the very end of April, it looks like weather systems will want to zip through here on a nice west to east fashion starting next weekend. 

That means the second half of the month would provide us with near normal to somewhat warmer than normal conditions. Under that scenario, we'd end up with many but not all days making it into the 70s. The warmest days would be near 80 and the coolest days in that stretch would be in the 60s. 

In other words, almost, but not quite summer weather. Won't that be nice?