Rain Misses Most Of Vermont Again, Beautiful Day Today, Brief Cold Snap Early Week

A nice sunset after a dark, rainy day in St. Albans, 
Vermont on Friday. While far northwestern Vermont
got some decent rains, the showers largely
missed most of the rest of the state. 

 Yesterday's cold front only managed to bring substantial rain to far northwestern Vermont. 

My unofficial rain gauge up in St. Albans caught a very nice 1.02 inches of rain. Burlington had a respectable 0.49. But everywhere else - pfft.  

We knew southeastern Vermont would miss out, but central parts of the state did, too. Montpelier managed to receive just 0.16 inches. St. Johnsbury and Rutland had less than a tenth of an inch.

Very little rain is in the cards for the next week. Most of us need the rain, but we're still going to have to wait awhile for it. 

On the bright side, the rest of today will be, well, bright. A perfect fall day, really. Head out to leaf peep, but stay off the traditional tourist roads - they'll be jammed for sure. 

Highs should reach within either side of 60 degrees. The cool air will prompt frost in some areas tonight, but I think the Champlain Valley is mostly safe. For now. That'll change soon. More on that in a bit. 

TOMORROW

Another nice one. Patchy fog and frost early in the day, as is traditional in Vermont for early October.  We might have some clouds come in during the afternoon, but overall it will be pleasant, with highs in the 60s. 

MONDAY

Here's where things take a cold turn. A cold front will come through in the morning. It won't have much moisture to work with, but it will be a very dynamic system which could be enough to set off some light showers. 

But the real news is the blast of cold air coming in. Depending on when the cold front actually comes through, at least part of the day will prove to be a windy, cold day. You're going to want to dig some of your warmer clothes out from the back of the closet. This will be no means be record-setting, but it will be our first minimal hint of winter. 

The timing of the front will determine when it gets cold on Monday. Early guesses are that temperatures will fall through the 50s in the afternoon. 

By evening, temperatures will be crashing, northwest winds could gust to 30 mph. Home heaters and wood stoves will go on for the first time this autumn. The last vestiges of the cold front's moisture could throw a few snowflakes onto the mountain summits, or coat the stunted trees atop those mountains with a bit of rime ice. 

Monday will be a very good day to put on your warm coat and do an emergency frost harvest in your garden. For most places, except right near Lake Champlain, will very likely see the growing season decidedly end. Your garden will be a wilted mess by either Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

TUESDAY

Winds will continue to blow Monday night. The winds will prevent frost, but a lot of places will get below freezing, so that would kill remaining garden plants. 

During the day, the wind will continue to blow, adding a wind chill to the air. But the sun will be out. Call it a chilly fall day. Highs will stay in the low 50s, give or take. 

Tuesday night will go below freezing everywhere except maybe right near Lake Champlain.  Colder spots will go well into the 20s. 

REST OF NEXT WEEK

A warming trend. Nothing wild. Just back up to near normal temperatures. We'll have at least some sun every day, and there's a good chance most if not all days Wednesday through Friday will be at least partly sunny, if not clear. 

The cold snap and wind Monday and Tuesday probably will have ended the foliage season up in the Northeast Kingdom, but the rest of the state should be dressed very nicely in fall colors. The good think about a lack of storms is that high winds and heavy rain won't be around to strip off the leaves before we get a good look at them.  

Vermont September Was Dry. Burlington Had Coolest September Since 2013, But Still Historically Warmish

Henry the weather dog, right, and his larger
friend, Cooper, left, together enjoy a very
pleasant day on September 14. The month
was cooler than recent Septembers, and
there were plenty of sunny, pleasantly
cool days like this one. 

If you look at the past 138 years Septembers in Burlington, this September was pretty middle of the road as far as temperatures go. 

Even with that, this September in Burlington was the coolest since 2013. Climate change has altered what we considered "normal."

 If this past month happened during the middle of the 20th century it would have been near average, maybe even a little warm side. 

The average temperature in Burlington was 61.2 degrees, or 1.5 degrees cooler than what is now considered "average.'

To give you an idea how much has changed since climate change really started causing havoc with the weather I give you this: Thirty years ago, the normal September average temperature in Burlington was 59.4 degrees. Which would have made this past September a warmer than typical month.

Elsewhere in Vermont, September, 2026 temperatures were close to "normal." The modern, warmer "normal."   Places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Rutland and Woodstock were all came in within a degree of this new normal.

September was a dry month in most places. Burlington was 1.68 inches below normal. The 1.99 inches of rain that did fall on Burlington made it the 26th driest record out of the past 138 years. 

Montpelier was almost as dry as Burlington, coming in at 1.25 inches on the light side.  Parts of southeastern Vermont had near normal precipitation, thanks in large part to a late month nor'easter.

The dry weather is continuing to worsen drought or near-drought conditions across Vermont. The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, shows abnormally dry conditions expanded to include almost all of the northern two-thirds of Vermont. Last week. western parts of the state had adequate moisture. Now, most of the Champlain Valley is dry, too. 

At least actual drought hasn't really expanded. At least for now. Like last week, moderate drought encompasses about a quarter of the state, in the Northeast Kingdom. 

On the bright side, the dry weather gave us plenty of absolutely gorgeous, comfortable September days featured blue skies and just the earliest hints of autumn in the air. 

LOOKING AHEAD

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is pretty non-committal with the outlook for October.  They give New England equal chances of above or below normal temperatures, and equal chances of above or below normal rainfall. 

Looking at NOAA's eight to 14 day outlook, taking us into mid-October gives us cool-ish to near normal temperatures, and near to perhaps edging toward below normal precipitation.  Which is too bad, we need at least a couple really soggy months to make Vermont adequately wet again. 

As always, we shall see!

  

Showers Dampening Vermont Ahead Of Classic Autumn Weekend

Early autumn calls starting to show under an overcast 
skies near Georgia, Vermont Thursday.  Clouds were
thicker than forecast yesterday. 

The weather forecasts seemed to be creaky lately.  

I'm not dissing National Weather Service meteorologists, they're working super hard. They're professional and dedicated 

But I think Trump-inspired cuts to the NWS might be interfering with picky details in the computer models. Not enough data is hitting those computer thingamajigs. 

Which might be creating more than picky mistakes in some weather forecasts.

I don't have any proof of this. And I know I'm oversimplifying a potential problem here.  Weather forecasts are almost never 100 percent accurate. Nature does what nature does. Nature still holds some secrets that meteorologists and other scientists haven't uncovered yet. 

But it seems that in the past week, forecast misses have been coming almost every day.   I hope somebody out there is researching the effects of Trump's cuts to the NWS and science in general to see that's all messing with weather forecasting

This rant is inspired by yesterday's weather. Broad brush, the forecast was correct. It was supposed to be relatively warm, relatively humid for this time of year, and that's what happened. 

But it was still cooler than forecast - near 70 instead of well up in the 70s.  Instead of variable cloudiness a thick, dark overcast hung over at least parts of Vermont for a good portion of the day, mostly in the afternoon. 

Now, what's going on with the weather over the next couple of days looks pretty straight-forward, so I have hopes that the forecasts for the next couple of days will turn out pretty accurate. Let's get into it: 

TODAY

Dawn broke today much like a sort of muggy July morning. Temperatures at 6 a.m. were in the mid to upper 60s in most spots. Montpelier was at 70 degrees. Rutland was at 71. 

Don't worry, it won't be a hot day, far from it. A cold front was making its way into Vermont early this  morning with a batch of showers. 

I think this would have been an almost dry cold frontal passage, if not for Hurricane Polo. That hurricane came ashore early this week a zillion miles away from us in Mexico's Baja California. 

But its remnants spread flooding rains into the Desert Southwest and Plains, and injected moisture along the front all the way up into our neck of the woods. 

Unfortunately for those of us who want and need a  lot of rain, this won't be the moment. The front is moving fast enough so that it won't have time to deposit much rain here. 

Most of us will receive a half inch or less. Storm totals will be maybe a quarter inch in many areas, give or take.Southern Vermont, especially the southeast, will probably get less than a tenth of an inch. 

The fast movement of the cold front will mean rain should pretty much be over in northwest Vermont by early afternoon, and mid to late afternoon elsewhere. 

Temperatures should hold steady or fall for the rest of the day as cooler air comes in and mostly cloudy skies linger after the bulk of the run has ended.

SATURDAY

We're still looking at a classic autumn day.  We'll have bright sunshine under blue skies. with highs within a few degrees either side of 60 degrees. Perfect conditions for leaf peeping, pumpkin shopping, fall festivals, you name it. 

Watch out for frost overnight. Carry in your sensitive plants that are still out there.  All my sensitive tropical-ish plants on my deck are coming in, mostly because of what's coming next week. More on that in a bit. 

SUNDAY

The day will start with patchy fog and frost. Here's a hint for leaf peepers and photographers: Get out there early, while it's still foggy. There's something magical about the sun breaking through the fog amid the multi-colored tree.s

Some clouds will come in during the day, but it will still be nice. Highs should get into the low 60s. Maybe mid-60s in the warmer valleys. 

MONDAY

A sharp cold front will come through, with maybe a few showers and more solid blast of chilly air. Highs should only reach the 50s as gusty northwest winds blowing through. The day could start out relatively mild, but it should turn out to be a cold day.  I wouldn't even be surprised if a few snow flurries grace the mountain peaks. 

Monday night will be cold, with a potentially widespread freeze, except right near Lake Champlain. 

TUESDAY

Another prematurely chilly day. Early guesses are the sun will be out, but highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. This isn't incredibly cold for early October -  we've had highs in the upper 30s to near 40 this time of year.  

But it will be a shock to the system. Especially since recent Octobers have been so warm. On the same dates that this cool snap will hit, it was in the 80s last year. 

Alito Recuses Himself From Climate Case; Proves Public Pressure Can Sometimes Work

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito is recusing himself
from a case involving fossil fuel companies, reversing
his earlier plans thanks to public pressure. 

Public pressure against injustice actually sometimes works. Even when it involves the Supreme Court. 

Per CNN:

"Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito announced Monday that he will recuse himself from a major climate change-related case the court is set to hear next week, following weeks of pressure from environmental groups that argued he was compromised by his financial holdings in the oil and gas industry."

Alito sent a letter to the court clerk saying he would not participate in the case, but did not explain the reasoning behind his decision. 

The case involves Boulder, Colorado and whether it can sue Suncor Energy and ExonMobil for damages caused by climate change. Or whether state laws are pre-empted by federal law and separation of powers principles in the Constitution. 

The Supreme Court case will have a big impact on similar legislation on other states, including Vermont. 

Even with Alito apparently out of the picture,  it's unclear whether the rest of the Supreme Court will side with Boulder. The Supreme Court hasn't really been friendly to environmental initiatives in recent years. 

Alito owns stock in ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66, among other energy holdings, CNN reports. 

In any event, Alito's turnaround is a bit of surprise. Back in May, a Supreme Court spokesman had said that since Alito doesn't have stock in the oil companies involved in the court case, he needn't recuse himself. 

Alito's recusal came after a lot of public pressure. As Scotusblog reports:

"In May, a coalition of left-leaning watchdog groups urged the Senate Judiciary Committee to investigate Alito's involvement in the dispute, contending that his 'substantial holdings in individual oil and gas companies' among other issues, would 'undermine(e) public confidence in the impartiality of the Court.

They stated that Alito had 'previously recused from considering a petition brought by' the same companies involved in Suncor Energies, 'There is no apparent reason for this change in Justice Alito's recusal practices, and Alison provided no statement justifying his failure to recuse,' the groups wrote." 

There's a lot to complain about regarding our current U.S. Supreme Court, but this was at least a small victory in the name of fairness.

 

A Warm Vermont Day, Showers, Then A Couple Coolish Days, Then A Sharp Cold Front

Expected rainfall tomorrow. Maybe a quarter in in much
of Vermont. If we're lucky, more than a half inch in
northwest Vermont. Southeast Vermont looks likes it
will miss out, with less than a tenth of an inch. 

The sky eventually sorta, kinda finally cleared out yesterday afternoon, revealing the high, thin overcast we expected.  

The persistent clouds kept Wednesday's temperatures a little cooler than expected, with highs generally in 60s. 

Up next, some typically variable Vermont weather. We got a warm, somewhat humid day, another day that shifts from warm and rainy to cooler, a glorious Saturday, an OK Sunday and then some downright frosty weather. 

Let's get into it. 

TODAY

The sky finally showed some nice blue this morning, the last of the low clouds finally having been flushed out.  The day has also started really warm for the first of October. Most of Vermont had temperatures in the 50s at dawn, with a couple low 60s in the Champlain Valley. 

The blue skies this morning will disappear behind mostly high and middle clouds. Those clouds will hold temperatures down a little more than we originally thought. Instead of mid and upper 70s, highs will probably top off within a few degrees either side of 70.

There could be some light showers later this afternoon near the Canadian border, but those will be spotty and super light. 

It will also feel a little humid, especially for this time of year.

FRIDAY

A fairly strong cold front will come through during the day. The morning and probably a good chunk of the afternoon should be showery and pretty humid for the season. 

Best guess is that much of northern Vermont could end up at a quarter and a half inch, with maybe a little more along the western slopes of the northern Green Mountains. 

Southern Vermont should have less than a quarter inch of rain, with only a few hundredth of an inch in the southeast

Then, chillier air will start to move in, and that will be most noticeable in the north and west.  Expected high temperatures will be in the 60s, give or take. 

The cool air will become firmly established Friday night.  

SATURDAY

It continues to look like the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing has an order in for a perfect fall weekend day on tap.  Or at least they've been channeling the weather gods for this because parts of the state are now at peak foliage. 

The day will feature blue skies and crisp air.  Highs should make it to within a few degrees either said of 60 degrees. Watch out for frost Saturday night and early Sunday. Not everybody will get that white film on their lawns. But if you still have some plants outdoors that need to come in, you might keep cover them or bring them in Saturday evening

SUNDAY

It's beginning to look like Sunday will be nicer than we thought a few days ago. Sounds like the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing is working really hard with the weather gods.  Instead of the overcast and showers we thought would plague Sunday, it's now looking like it might be partly sunny, with highs in the low to mid 60s. Sweet! 

EARLY NEXT WEEK

It still looks like a strong cold front will arrive.  Hard freezes could hit many areas of Vermont. I wouldn't even rule out some mountain snow flurries. Winter's coming - eventually. 

Stubborn Clouds Stay Over Vermont, A Sign Of Season; Brief Warmup, Then Autumn Chill To Flood In

Low clouds and fog yesterday hung on all day in much
of Vermont yesterday, and that gray gloom has lasted
into today. The hope is that fog will finally break
up later this morning or early afternoon 

We woke up in Vermont this morning to the same low overcast and fog we've endured for the past two or three days.  

Clearing has been repeatedly delayed. It's because a temperature inversion has trapped dense moisture near the ground. Get used to it. The waning, weakening autumn sun is less and less able to disrupt these inversions.  

So the fog and gray clouds remain. This phenomenon is a big reason why November and December are almost always overcast. 

It's the last day of September. The sun isn't at the same angle as it was in June. But not as lame as December. The sun should be able to break our current inversion. Albeit much later than forecast. A couple of days ago, we thought the sun would come out yesterday afternoon. 

Obviously, we're still waiting. So, what is going to happen?

REST OF TODAY

The National Weather Service in South Burlington is insisting the low clouds, fog and drizzle will finally break up late this morning or this afternoon.  We hope. A layer of drier air aloft is getting thicker, stronger. That should help gradually flush out the drizzly gray atmosphere. 

Once and if the low clouds break up, it won't 'get all nice and sunny. The moisture stream from thunderstorms across the southwestern United States from the remnants of Hurricane Polo. This moisture is high above the dry layer that meteorologists hope will flush out the low clouds.

The end result would be finally become a brighter day once we get into the afternoon. But the sun would be dimmed by high and mid level clouds.  It's iffy, but the thinking is the low clouds will dissipate soon enough so that temperatures will still be able to reach near 70 degrees. 

I'm not 100 percent sure the low clouds will break up as forecast, but there's always hope. 

THURSDAY

This part of the forecast hasn't 'changed much since yesterday. It'll be warm and humid, thanks to those Hurricane Polo remnants. It also won't be a clear, sunny day, though the sun will be out on and off. We'll call it partly sunny. Highs will reach the low and mid 70s, with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

A couple showers might show up in the far north in the later afternoon, but don't necessarily count on it raining. 

FRIDAY

After a fairly muggy night for early October, a cold front will approach and come through on Friday. On the bright side, the front will have grabbed a little bit of moisture from the Hurricane Polo remnants.  The bad news is the front will be stretching out and moving fast. It won't have time to drop much rain on us. Too bad, because we need it. 

The end result will probably be about a quarter inch of rain, give or take. 

Temperatures and humidity will depend on when the front comes in. It will probably feel a little warm and humid amid the showers for at least part of the day before much cooler and drier air comes in. 

SATURDAY

Hopefully, a classic early October Vermont day. Early morning patch fog (again!) should burn off into sunshine. Highs should reach somewhere around the low 60s, give or take as it looks now. Basically a foliage season day sponsored by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

Watch out for frost again Saturday night and early Sunday morning. 

SUNDAY

Unfortunately, rain chances have diminished a lot compared to earlier forecasts. THere's still a chance of scattered lights showers, especially later in the day, but don't hold your breath. We'll also have some sun and seasonable temperatures in the 60s All in all, an OK day. 

EARLY WEEK

Initial indications give us the risk of a hard freeze early next week.  Details aren't available yet, so we'll want to stay tuned. 

Trump To Relax Fuel Standards For Cars, Though There's Lots Of Questions About How Much That Would Help Consumers

The Trump administration is rolling back fuel efficiency
standards for cars and trucks. The Trumpsters say
that will save consumers money, but fuel costs will
eat up any savings. The climate will suffer, but
the oil and gas industry will benefit. 

The Trump announced Monday it was rolling back on the nation's fuel economy standards, claiming that will help Americans with affordability when buying cars.Though some experts suggest consumers wouldn't exactly save tons of cash. 

Washington Post describes Trump's move, announced on Monday:

"The rules still require fuel efficiency improvements but at a slower pace. Automakers now will need a car-and-truck fleet wide average of 34.9 mpg by the 2031 model year, instead of the stricter, projected 49.3  mpg under the Biden-era rule. Average fuel economy was 27.2 mpg in the 2024 model year, according to a government analysis."

In a social media post, Trump wrote his rolled back standard, "means LOWER PRICES, saving families thousands on a  new, beautiful and safe car."

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimated the new vehicle price would be reduced by $1,289 due to the lower fuel standard. Whether automakers pass the savings on consumers is a very open question. 

New cars these days cost about $50,000 on average, so $1,300 is comparatively small potatoes. 

Plus, especially if gas prices remain high, that $1,300 in savings would soon evaporate. Consumers might still turn to EVs as an alternative. Especially since high gas prices will quickly erase those supposed $1,300 in savings. 

As the Washington Sun reported, the decision to loosen efficiency standards for new cars could add roughly $1,600 in fuel costs for drivers. So much for those savings on new car purchases. 

Turns out a lot of people are seeing this cost issue. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, D-RI posted on Bluesky: "Another fossil fuel con job. Any savings on the front end get eaten up and spat out by excess costs of fuel, which go to - oh, right - Trump's big corrupt fossil fuel donors. Fuel economy standards have saved drivers hundreds of billons of dollars."

It's all about more cash for billionaires, right?

The main point of better fuel efficiency is to reduce pollution, including the emissions that worsen climate change. 

At least we can say Trump is consistent here, which is rare for him. He hates fuel efficiency, mostly because he's in that small and shrinking group who thinks climate change is a "hoax."  Trump has already cut the federal tax credit for electric vehicle buyers, delayed federal dollars for a nationwide EV charging program, and striking down federal waivers that let California set its own strict pollution regulations, as NPR notes. 

In the long run, Trump's move to weaken fuel efficiency goals in cars might actually hinder the American automotive industry. 

As NPR reports: 

"Easing CAFE standards will hinder the industry's realignment toward more fuel-efficient and electric vehicles, said economist Sue Helper, who studies the auto industry at Case Western Reserve University. 

'It's very bad in the long term, because it slows progress,' she said. 'Then we make our auto companies less competitive. We give them less practice in making the cars that both Americans will want in the future and the rest of the world will want.'"

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg agreed with Helper. He posted on social media: "Lowering standards will accelerate what her has already been doing: Handing the clean tech future to China and forcing Americans to pay more at the pump."

Trump's Department of Transportation is still aggressively selling the efficiency rollback. As Car and Driver reports, the department claims the alleged savings will save Americans $138 billion over the next five years.  The department also claims it will lead shoppers to buy newer vehicles, saving 1,900 lives and preventing more than 300,000 serious injuries. 

Although, we don't know whether people would actually buy new cars. The economy is bad enough such that people are holding off on purchasing new vehicles.  

I'm sure some people will buy Trump's sales pitch. There's always some gullible people out there. But the relaxed fuel efficiency standards are just a money grab for the oligarchy, and not us.