Vermont Rainfall Was Mostly A Bust, Typical November Week Coming, Weekend Storm?

A little snow is visible on the trees through the dense
fog atop Mount Mansfield this morning. Overall,
precipitation was less than forecast overnight. 
The week will bring frequent chances of light
rain or snow showers, but nothing big until
at least Friday. 

 The long period of dark, grey, overcast in Vermont that started early yesterday and lasted through this morning didn't help us at all. 

We expected more than a quarter inch of rain, but we were cheated, especially in central and northern Vermont. Rain passed to our south, west and east. Some very light rain and drizzle was going on as dawn broke, but that won't last long. 

Many places just had a trace of rain, or a few hundredths of an inch. 

High elevations had a little snow overnight, but it didn't amount to much. A web cam from atop Mount Mansfield, for instance, showed a little new snow. It's unclear yet whether this was an inch or snow or not. 

If not, the record for the first inch of snow on the ground atop Mount Mansfield could be tied tomorrow or broken on Tuesday. 

It's too bad we didn't get the forecast rain. . We needed it. During the week, we will have frequent chances of rain and snow, but it won't amount to much. But there is a chance of a larger storm toward next weekend, which might, or might not spread a more substantial rain or snow our way. Yes, it's possible we'll see our first measurable valley snow of the season, but there's some big ifs attached to it.

It might or might not happen, but get your snow tires on anyway, just in case. 

Let's get into the updated forecast for the week:  

TODAY

The light rain, drizzle and fog this morning should thin out. We might even see some sun this afternoon, especially in western Vermont. 

Especially in the Champlain Valley, it looks like it could turn mostly sunny for a short while this afternoon before more clouds come in this evening. Just know that there is some ifs ands or buts with this forecast. Sometimes, low level moisture has a hard time getting scoured out of valleys this time of year. There's a chance that the sunshine forecast will be another bust. 

But for now the National Weather Service is being optimistic, so we'll hope they're right and things brighten up for a little while. 

Highs should be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees, which is about normal for this time of year. North winds should taper off a little and become westerly this afternoon. 

MONDAY

Starting Monday, we're in a fast northwest flow for the week. That means we'll be sprayed with rapid fire, weak disturbances racing in from the northwest. 

The first one comes through late tonight and tomorrow morning. We'll have some light showers in the morning, but we'll only have a few hundredth of an inch of rain. Or even nothing in southeastern Vermont. 

Unlike today, it'll stay cloudy. Highs once again should come close to 50 degrees.

TUESDAY

More than 48 hours out, it's hard to judge the timing of all this disturbance, so we have to go broad brush. No saying what time of day it will rain or snow. Just know it will be typically chilly for November. And we won't see a lot of sun.

On Tuesday, early guesses are some light showers would be most likely in the afternoon and evening. It will probably be cold enough for a little snow way up in the mountains. Again that's pretty normal for November. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

As the northwest flow continues, it will get colder. It'll stay partly to mostly cloudy with that ever-present chance of light rain or snow showers. The National Weather Service is going for highs generally in the 40s those days. Cool, but not out of the ordinary for November. 

At this time last year, most of northern Vermont had several inches of snow on the ground and daytime highs were only in the 30s. 

FRIDAY/NEXT WEEKEND

A lot of the models are still  hinting at a pretty strong storm or nor'easter toward Friday or the weekend. There's still lots of disagreement on how strong the storm will be, its path, and even whether it will fully develop. That means we have no idea yet what that means for Vermont. 

This morning's models were a little more bullish on fairly heavy precipitation for us. It's unclear it that means, rain, snow or both. Plus, forecasts this far out tend to flip flop dramatically. A very wet or very snowy scenario in the models today could change to a dry forecast when the another run of computer models come out. 

For now, as mentioned above, now is a great time to get your snow tires on, even if the weekend storm for Vermont turns into just another partly sunny day.  

The snow will hit eventually. 

Back To Reality. Vermont To Turn Colder, Wetter, And Eventually Maybe Snowier.

Fog and a gray atmosphere this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont. The warm, sunny weather we enjoyed for the 
last few days is over, in favor of typical cloudy,
rainy, cold November weather. 

Friday was another gorgeous day in Vermont the last we will see for a long time. Depending on your definition of gorgeous, of course. 

Some people love the gloomy, gray, wet and cold days of November. If you're in that camp, there's great news. 

Typical November weather is moving in. Starting today. 

Otherwise, I guess we can bask in the memory of yesterday. It was particularly sunny and warm in western Vermont. Some clouds were overhead in southeast Vermont, but it was still a pretty nice day down there. 

Highs were in the 60s statewide. You can't beat that. At least this time of year. 

We're on the cusp of an El Nino winter now. And this is an extreme El Nino, so there's always a chance things could get wildly interesting at times in the coming months. 

My experience with past big El Nino winters  in Vermont is that they feature bouts of very warm, often record-breaking warmth, and/or nasty or even destructive storms. In between, you get long periods of pretty average weather. 

El Nino springs are often even more volatile, but we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

We just had our first spell of record breaking warmth. Now, it's going back to normal, but we could get a decent-sized storm in a week or so. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

We're starting off mild again, as temperatures were in the 40s at dawn. It was overcast and foggy, too, and it's not going to clear up, not at all. As of 8:30 this morning there was very little rain in Vermont. Yet.

Highs should only make it to the 50s, which is still slightly above normal for this time of year. 

However, that upper level low spinning in New York State. During the day, you'll see increasing rain moving in traveling east to west across Vermont. 

Forecasters have upped the amount of rain northern Vermont will receive, and keeping it about the same as early predictions south. That means pretty much all of us will receive a quarter to a half inch of rain this afternoon and tonight. 

I'm still a little skeptical about the north. I wouldn't be surprised if some of us north of Route 2 receive a little less than a quarter inch. 

SUNDAY

Early in the morning, before dawn, the very highest elevations will have switched to snow.  It doesn't look like there will be much accumulation. We might just see a new record set in Vermont. 

The latest in the season that the summit of Mount Mansfield had the first inch of snow on the ground was November 9, 1985. If there's less than an inch of snow at the summit tomorrow morning,  we have a good shot at seeing that record broken. 

Any rain will tend to taper off in the morning. It'll stay cloudy and cool, though some areas, especially in western Vermont could see some sunshine late in the afternoon, not long before sunset. 

Highs should get to near 50 or so, which is close to average for this time of year. 

MONDAY

The week will feature some rapid fire quick hits of light rain and snow in a fast northwest flow.  Little disturbances will zing through northern New England quickly, each with a package of light precipitation. 

The first one comes through Monday, with a little light rain. No biggie.   Most of the light rain should come through in the morning and early afternoon, but we can't rule out sprinkles extending through all day. Monday will be seasonably cool with a high near 50 degrees.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY

More weak, rapid-fire disturbances will zip through, typical of November. That means mostly cloudy skies, and nearly and ever-present chance of light rain or snow showers. Highs should be in the 40s to near 50. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

We're starting to see signs that a major storm could hit New England. It's really, really uncertain at this point. So there's no reason to panic. The storm could go harmlessly out to sea. It could go inland. It could go right along the coast. It's possible the storm might not form at all. 

There's some social media hype that we'd get a major snowstorm here in Vermont. But that's hype. I suppose it's possible we could get snow out of this, but it's way, way, WAY to soon to think about that. 

So, don't worry about it for now. Listen to forecasts later in the week, and we'll have much better handle on it then. 

A Summery November Thursday In Vermont. Now The Cool Down Starts. Rain, Too. And Did Someone Say Snow?

As the sun sank toward the horizon yesterday in St. Albans,
Vermont, convective showers were developing across
the lake in New York, taking advantage of oddly
humid air for November. 

Thursday in Vermont had to be one of the most summer-like November days in history. 

It started bright and early with balmy breezes and a giant rainbow over northwest Vermont, that I regret to say I missed.  

Burlington tied a record for the warmest low temperature on this date, with 60 degrees. It also tied the record for the second warmest low for the entire month of November. 

 The warmest November low, of 62 degrees, was during the record-smashing November heat of 2022.

Clouds kept highs in Vermont yesterday in the 60s, which is very balmy, but not quite record-setting. But dew points, a measure of how humid it feels, reached to around 60 degrees. That would have been typical of July, not November. 

With that humidity around, convective downpours and even thunderstorms erupted in northern Vermont last evening. Nothing severe, but still quite unseasonable. 

We're now starting the path back down to November reality. Let's get into the details

TODAY

It'll be one last mild day, but not quite as warm as it's been. Already, temperatures at dawn today were slightly cooler than yesterday. but still balmy by Vermont standards. It was in the 40s north and 50s south. 

We're going to eke out a nice day, especially considering it will be decidedly unpleasant not far to our east and west. 

A flood watch is in effect for southeastern New England due to expected heavy rain today and tonight from a stalled, very wet front.  Western New York is in for a showery day due to a storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere. 

Vermont, meanwhile, will spend the day in a gap between these two weather system.  So, we'll have a little sunshine mixed with clouds, and highs will get into the toasty 60s. Toasty for November, anyway. 

Enjoy it, since such mild days will be rare indeed until next spring. 

Some models bring that coastal rain inland to the Connecticut River Valley later today and tonight,  but that's uncertain.  Radar indicated some rain moving into southern Vermont at mid-morning, so it does seem like parts of eastern Vermont might not be quite as nice as western parts of the state. We shall see this afternoon!

SATURDAY

That western New York upper low will come through New England Saturday. It still looks like the heavier rain might hit southern Vermont, but some models bring a good amount of rain to northern areas. 

For now, it looks like rainfall will amount to a quarter inch or less north of Route 2, gradually increasing to more than a half inch in far southern Vermont. However, some models bring more rain to northern Vermont than what this morning's forecast 

Highs will be in the 50s, which is a little warmer than normal for this time of year. But temperatures will fall well into the 30s. That means rain will probably change to snow in the high elevations. A few areas above 1,500 feet could get a couple inches of slushy snow. 

SUNDAY

Rain, and a little mountaintop snow, will tend to taper off in the morning. The rest of the day will remain cloudy and raw, so, so depressingly typical for November. Highs should be within a few degrees either side of 50. That's pretty normal for this time of year. 

NEXT WEEK

This will be a typical November week in Vermont. That means a fair amount of clouds, chilly temperatures, and occasional risks of rain or snow showers. We'll have a rapid-fire series of disturbances blowing in from the northwest 

Drought Monitor Says Drought, Dryness Worsened In Vermont

Drought and dryness in Vermont worsened in the 
past week. Pretty much all of the Northeast
Kingdom is in drought (orange shading).
Virtually all of the rest of Vermont, aside 
from the extreme northwest corner is
abnormally dry (yellow shading).

To no real surprise, drought and dryness in Vermont worsened over the past week, as the state is still enduring a lack of rain. 

The latest weekly U.S.Drought Monitor, released Thursday morning, indicates drought expanded. 

Last week, 14% of the Northeast Kingdom was drought. This week, the Northeast Kingdom drought expanded to include nearly a third of the state, covering pretty much the entire NEK.

Virtually all of the state is now at least abnormally dry.  Last week 81 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry or in drought, according to the Drought Monitor. This week, 97 percent of the state was abnormally dry or in drought, the Monitor said. 

Only a tiny corner in far northwest Vermont is not officially experiencing oddly dry ground conditions. 

The Drought Monitor uses data that ends each Tuesday.  During the week studied, Vermont had less than a tenth of an inch of new rain. 

The forecast isn't encourage, but at least some rain is coming. Current forecasts give Vermont another quarter to a half inch of rain over the next several days. We'll take every drop of rain, but we could really use a much bigger soaker before winter sets in. 

Another Vermont Autumn, Another Record Hot Spell, Only Light Rain Coming Instead Of Needed Soaker

Some lingering golden leaves on trees in Burlington,
Vermont yesterday amid record high temperatures. 

 A couple weeks ago, I thought this autumn might break from recent tradition and yield no record warm spells in Vermont. 

Yesterday dispelled that notion. 

The updates show some impressively warm weather across the state on Wednesday. Burlington actually had one of the "cooler" high temperatures at 73 degrees, with tied the record for the date. Burlington's low temperature for yesterday was 59 degrees. breaking the record for the warmest low for the date by five degrees.

The record-smashing was even more impressive elsewhere in Vermont. Montpelier reached an impressive 76 degrees, besting the 72 degrees original set in 2022. St. Johnsbury was almost hot - reaching 77 degrees. That beat the old record by four degrees. 

Autumn in Vermont aren't what they used to be, that's for sure. 

Until now, this autumn was a little closer to they way they used to be. Not much in the way of summer weather, a fair number of frosty mornings in October. But yesterday changed that, for now 

We've alway had the occasional warm spell. But lately, it's been a nearly yearly occurrence. 

In 2022, Burlington reached 76 degrees in November 6, the hottest temperature on record for the month. On October 4, 2023. it was 86 degrees in Burlington, the hottest reading on record for the entire month October.

On Halloween, 2024, it was 77 degrees in Burlington, the warmest for so late in the season. Plattsburgh New York got to an incredible 83 degrees that day. Last October, the record hot temperature of 86 degrees was tied in Burlington. Montpelier also reached its record high for the month of 84 degrees.

Now we had another autumn record spell. Not quite as big a recent years, but still. 

FORECAST

It's going to stay balmy for the next couple of days. Not quite record warm, but still. Let's get into it. 

Today

A little rain is coming through this morning, but I'm completely unimpressed by how much. Most of us will see less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Mostly this morning. 

The air is unusually humid for this time of year, but there's not much lift in the atmosphere. Without the lift, you don't get much rain. So the moisture in the air is basically wasted. 

Be glad little bits and sprinkles of more rain is on the way for the next few days. That will keep the risk of forest fires suppressed some until we get a nice soaker. Some day. New England needs it. An illegal brush pile fire in Ferrisburgh, Vermont spread yesterday, It took six fire crews to contain the blaze. 

A much bigger fire is burning through rugged terrain near the northern New Hampshire/western Maine border. That fire has chewed through about 1,000 acres and at last report was only 11 percent contained. 

Back here in Vermont, it will still be very warm, but not quite record breaking. Highs should get into the mid and upper 60s. Breaks in the clouds this afternoon should help boost those temperatures. 

With the warmth and unusual humidity - dew points are in 50s to near 60, we actually have a shot of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Especially in far northwestern Vermont. 

Friday

Still warm. Dawn will break with temperatures near 50, which is a near-normal high for this time of year. Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid-60s. We'll be caught between a very wet, nearly stalled weather front along the southeastern New England coast and an upper level low near western New York.

The result for us is almost no chance of rain, and partly sunny skies

Saturday

Back to reality. The upper low in western New York will amble in, creating a lot of showers. This is our best shot at getting some fairly decent rain, but so far I'm not too impressed. So far, it looks like the best chance of good rains is in southern Vermont, but that depends on the track of this thing. 

For now, it's looking like most of us will receive less than a quarter inch of rain, which is much less than we really need. 

It'll be cooler, too, but not ridiculous for November. We'll put highs in the 50s.

Sunday/Next Week

A dip in the jet stream will keep the weather unsettled and cool, but with no big storms. We'll have frequent chances of showers, which will probably mix with snow at times, especially in the mountains. 

It's that time of year, folks!

Record Highs Around Vermont Today

Much of Vermont had record high
temperatures today. 

 As expected, record high temperatures hit in and around Vermont today. 

The following high temperatures I'll list here are preliminary.  Actual temperatures from today might end up slightly different than our list this evening. I'll have a full updated tomorrow morning. 

So here, we go:

Burlington reached at least 73 degrees, tying the record set in 1982.

Montpelier got to at least 75 breaking the record of 72 degrees in 2022.

St. Johnsbury reached at least 75 degrees, breaking a record of 73 in 1990.

Rutland reached at least 75 degrees, tying the record set in 1982.

We have two more rather warm days coming up, at least for November, but the highs won't be quite enough to break more records. 

Again, more details coming tomorrow morning. 

Record Warmth Likely In Vermont Today, But Unfortunately, Not Much Rain Coming

This flower in St. Albans, Vermont somehow 
survived the frosts of October, and should end
up enjoying record warmth today. 

 With energy price so high, we're going to pray for odd warm spells here in Vermont all winter. 

We've got your first such spell now, and it will lead to record high temperatures today. 

It's been mild the past few days. My furnace has been off since Sunday afternoon. 

Even yesterday, with the gloom and light showers over northern Vermont, the house remained comfortable enough as outdoor high temperatures reached the low 60s. 

As expected, rainfall amounts Tuesday were pretty pathetic. Burlington had jus .07 inches. Most of central and southern Vermont received nothing.  

Not all that much rain is coming in the next few days, but at least we will receive some raindrops. More on that in a bit. 

But I'm burying the lede. Let's get into the warm (for now) forecast. It won't last forever, as it will be seasonably chilly by the weekend. 

TODAY

Temperatures at dawn in the Champlain Valley were near 60 degrees this morning, which is close to what  you'd expect on a July morning. It was cooler east of the Green Mountains, with lows in the 40s, but that's still not bad for early November. 

This afternoon's highs won't quite make it to July levels, but you'll surely feel one last hint of summer today. It's a good day to play hooky from work or school. Especially for the many of you who are pleased with the election results from yesterday. 

Under partly sunny skies,  highs across Vermont should hit the low and mid 70s. That's definitely record territory for the date. There's even a slight chance there could be a record or two set for the entire month of November. 

In Burlington, the hottest November on record was 76 degrees on November 6, 2022. The forecast high in Burlington today is 74. If the warmth over-performs, we could tie that record. 

Winds will keep running steady from the south. In central and southern Vermont, where it didn't rain yesterday. the fire danger is pretty high today. 

THURSDAY

Morning lows will be very mild again. Lows will be near 50 in valleys in eastern Vermont to near 60 in the Champlain Valley. Those lows will be warmer than normal highs for this time of year. A weakening cold front will come in with showers during the morning. Those showers will last into at least part of the afternoon.

This won't' count too much. The front will be falling apart, so we'll only receive a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. It'll still be mild, with highs into the 60s, despite the rain. 

There could be a bit of a break in the rain during the afternoon. But more moisture will come in with a little more evening rain.

FRIDAY

Since the front will have fallen apart, we won't yet see any cooler weather. It will feel maybe strangely a little humid for this time of year. Highs should once again get into the 60s. Though it probably will be generally cloudy, we'll have little or no rain. 

SATURDAY

A storm will go by to our east, along the New England coast. That will dump heavy rain in parts of southeast New England. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system will be spinning over western New York and headed our way.  

The end result will be showers. Nothing heavy, but probably enough to make the day kind of gloomy and not fit for a lot of outdoor activity. It will be cooler, too. But not cold. Highs should reach the 50s, which is still a little warmer than average for this time of year. 

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY

Even though it won't be terribly cold for this time of year, the showers could change to snow in the mountains. That's very normal for this time of year. The valleys could see some lingering rain showers. 

Sunday should be cloudy and seasonably cool, with highs within a few degrees either side of 50. A few light showers could linger. 

NEXT WEEK

Long range forecasts are iffy, as I always say. It looks like it will be seasonably chilly, with risks of showers and mostly mountain snow showers. We shouldn't see any big storms, though.