Rutland County Hit By Big Storm Friday. All Of Vermont Faces Hot, Steamy Weather In Upcoming Days

The severe thunderstorm in Rutland County yesterday
with a wild shelf cloud. Note the blue tint in the clouds.
That suggests there's quite a bit of hail up there. Photo
was taken by Mary Jean Wasik Obtained via Facebook

 Well, we got through our latest severe weather threat pretty much unscathed. Most of us anyway. Quite a few people in Rutland County would beg to differ. 

As severe weather probabilities were updated midday Friday, the word, "tornado" somehow came back into the vernacular. They said there was a very low, but not zero chance of a tornado in eastern Vermont or New Hampshire in the very worst storms. 

Turns out there was only one thunderstorm of note, and it was a doozy. It developed near Ticonderoga, New York around 2:30 and headed southeast. through northern an eastern Rutland County. 

Dime sized hail fell in Hubbarton and Hortonia, Vermont. It then moved on to knock down numerous trees in Proctor and in the north and east sides of Rutland. 

I don't see any evidence the damage was caused by a tornado. Looks like straight line winds caused all the Rutland Couty trouble. 

The storm appeared to weaken somewhat crossing the Green Mountains because I don't have damage reports there. But the storm blossomed again as it crossed the Connecticut River into Cornish, New Hampshire, where hail was big enough to dent cars. 

The storm continue on through southern New Hampshire as a rotating supercell, spewing damaging wins and hail along its path.

Parts of Vermont that were not hit be severe storms still had generous rainfall. It was hit and miss, or course, bur Burlington had a storm total of 0.68 inches. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected right around an inch of rain from Thursday night through late Friday afternoon. 

The rain is mostly over, for now, and summer is really going to make a stand. The details: 

TODAY

There were areas of low clouds and fog around early this morning around Vermont,  but that should mostly clear out to reveal a nice, typical Vermont summer day. Highs will get into the 

You'll see some building, towering clouds here and there over the mountains, and some of those will develop into showers and garden variety thunderstorms. They'll pretty much stick to the mountains and do no harm. From the valleys especially it will be a great cloud watching day as showers and storm develop, then fade as new ones form. 

A few showers  could try to wander off into the valleys during the afternoon and evening, but they'll probably weaken as they do so. 

While you're watching the clouds, or doing anything else outside, it should get up to near 80 degrees for most of us. Humidity will be moderate. 

SUNDAY: 

A copy of today, except it will be a couple degrees warmer and there will probably be few storms and showers over the mountains. 

MONDAY: 

The heat and humidity really start to build. It should still be fairly reasonably with highs in the low to mid 80s. Maybe a spot 87 or 88 in the warmest valleys. 

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

The heat is on. Hot, humid, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s in the warmest valleys Tuesday through Friday. 

It's hard to say exactly how hot it will get, as clouds and storms might interfere with the hottest temperatures. For now, the National Weather Service is going with a high of 91 degrees in Burlington Tuesday, followed by 95 Wednesday and Thursday. 

Granted, Burlington is warmer than many other parts of Vermont. But regardless of what happens, with location and afternoon showers and storms,  it will be uncomfortable. 

 As I mentioned in yesterday's post, we will be on the northeast corner of a big heat dome that will be setting up over the eastern US. "Ridge runner" patches of thunderstorms could go over the top of the heat dome in southern Canada and then head southeastward over us at any time during this upcoming hot week. The first chance of this is Tuesday night. 

With all the heat and humidity in place, there's a chance that storms could become severe or lead to local flash flooding. It's way too early to determine for sure whether this will happen, and if so, where. But on top of taking care of yourself in the heat, you might have to keep an ear out for severe storm warnings, too.

 

Overnight Rain Is Over, Now Onto The Showers, Thunderstorm Later Today

A patch of clearing skies over St. Albans, Vermont
at 5:45 a..m, but ou can just see shower clouds
over the tree line looking toward New York.
A burst of rain hit not long after this photo
was taken. If it clears up again later this 
morning, that would increase the chances 
of strong storms a little bit. 

 I'm up bright an early for a start-of-the day appointment, so let's get into our latest out of rain and storms. 

As expected, rain moved over Vermont last night. Through 5 a.m., it hadn't amounted to all that much in  northern Vermont. 

It appears most places up there had a quarter inch or less. Southern Vermont, as expected, did better, with many places receiving a half inch or more of rain.  

We are, of course,  not done with the showers and storms. There were a few scattered showers and downpours wandering around the region as of 5:30 a.m., but also some breaks in the clouds. 

Whether it stays more cloudier or sunnier it remains this morning will influence how wild, or not wild the weather will become this afternoon. The sunnier ir gets this morning, the more likely a few stars could become strong.

This isn't a perfect setup for severe storms. The alleged cold front coming in to spark the storms doesn't really have any cold air behind it. The lack of a temperature contrast might constrain storms a bit. But there is converging winds near the front, so that's why some thunderstorms might spark. 

The air also isn't all that humid, so there's a little less fuel for strong thunderstorms than if the air was really muggy. 

There is enough of a chance for strong storms that NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont under a level one out of five marginal risk for severe storms. That means we could have isolated instances of damaging winds. There's also a very slight risk of large hail, too. 

The best chances of strong storms for most of us would be a little earlier than is typical - roughly between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m.  The best chance of strong storms would be in the early afternoon. 

We also might have a couple scattered showers or non-severe rumbles of thunder lasting into the ever. 

Even though thunderstorms might have some brief downpours, I'm not really worried about flooding for this go-around.  

The next issue facing us is, well, summer. 

WEEKEND

Saturday and Sunday look like a typical summer weekend. It'll be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday and low to mid 80s Sunday, with an odd 87 or 88 in the very warmest Banana Belt valleys. Humidity will be noticeable but not extreme. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the mountain both days. Especially Saturday.  

Some of those might try to drift into the valleys, but they'll probably tend to fall apart as they do so. 

EARLY WEEK

Then we get into real heat. I don't know exactly how hot it will get, but hot enought. There's a good chance at least some of us will make it to 90 degrees. It will also be very humid, meaning the night will be stuffy. 

The very warm, or hot weather with the muggy air should last most if not all of next week

Another thing to consider: The heat will be courtesy of a big "heat dome" that will set up over the eastern United States. The center of this heat dome will a little to our west. That opens us up to what are know as "ridge runners."

Ridge runners are packets of severe thunderstorms that go up and over the northern edge of the heat domes. When they start moving southeastward along the front side of the heat dome, the storms can get very feisty, sometimes dangerous. 

We'll be in that spot next week. The first chance of a "ridge runner" would come later Tuesday or Tuesday night. We could have one or two  more later in the week.

There's absolutely no guarantee we'll be affected by a ridge runner. They might miss us or not develop at all. You can predict the conditions that could create them well in advance. But you can't really confirm one will form or hit you until the day of the event. 

And if we do, there's no guarantee we'll be hit by the severe parts of a ridge runner. But it's something to keep in the back of your mind if you don't like damaging storms. 

As El Nino Was Brewing, May Was World's Second Hottest On Record

May, 2026 was the world's second hottest on record.
An El Nino has started, which is expected to work 
with climate change to bring global temperatures
 to new and dangerous heights. 

 We're closing in on the end of June, and I realize I never did do my monthly fever check of the world in May 2026. 

As has been the case for years now under the onslaught of climate change, the world continues to run a very high fever.

May, 2026 was the world's second hottest on record, trailing only 2024, the NOAA's National Centers for Environment Information tells us. If you are under the age of 50, you have never seen a May in which the world was even a little cooler than average. 

Climate change has been with us for half a century, and in the past couple of decades, that has gotten more and more obvious.

The warmest places relative to average were much of the Arctic and Antarctica, central Canada and the northwest United States, western Russian, much of southwestern Asia and parts of the North Pacific.

The Pacific Ocean off the west coasts of Mexico and northwestern South American were very warm. That was a sign that El Nino was building. 

Officials declared this month that El Nino is underway. It's forecast to reach record intensity. Since El Ninos tend to warm the climate, a combination of an extreme El Nino and climate change is bad news for the next several months at least. El Nino is expected to peak this winter. 

More intense and longer heat waves, intense droughts and storms are on the horizon for many parts of Earth. Buckle your seat belts, it's going to be a rough ride. 

As usual, you could find a few cooler spots around the world. Those included centra South amerce, northeast Russia, western Australia, Southern Africa, eastern Antarctica and a portion of the North Atlantic south of Greenland. 

That "cold blob" south of Greenland is ominous, too. It's a sign that fresh water from melting glaciers in Greenland is messing with the currents in the Atlantic Ocean. If the warm currents that keep western Europe mild collapse, there could be sudden and extreme changes to the climate in Europe and elsewhere. Nobody is prepared for these changes. 

So yeah, I'm full of good news with this post.

Let's move on to how the United States has been doing. 

UNITED STATES

May, 2026 was warm out West and a little cooler
but not extremely so in the East. 

May was the 28th warmest, or 105 coolest, if you want to look at it that way, says NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

As had been the case all winter and early spring the west was on the warm side while eastern states were somewhat cooler. Three states - Washington, Oregon and Florida, had one of their top ten Mays on record. 

No state had a particularly cool May. The state that came closest to a chilly May was West Virginia, which had the 39th coolest May out of the past 131 years. Here in Vermont, it was the 51st coolest out of the past 131 years. 

The United States had its  55th driest on record, or 78th wettest May on record NCEI says. Idaho, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan had one of their top ten driest Mays on record. On the other hand, top 10 wettest May honors for 2026 go to Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana. 

Vermont, as you might remember, was also on the damp side. The Green Mountain State had its 19 wettest May out of the past 131 years. 

It won't be long until we have our June summary to see how the start of El Nino is affecting us and the rest o the world. That report should come out in mid-July.

Rain Is Coming To Vermont Again, Could Be Heavy In Spots

Clouds blowing in from some showers near Plattsburgh,
New York were already beginning to fill the sky
over St. Albans, Vermont at 12:40 p.m. today.
There's a rising chance of showers, especially late
this afternoon and we're in for a wet night, with
more showers and storms Friday. 

I had internet problems this morning so I was unable to post earlier, but the glitch seems to have disappeared, so I'll do a noontime Vermont update today instead.

I thought yesterday would be the first day without rain in the Green Mountain State since June 16. 

But a couple raindrops landed on me in Enosburgh yesterday morning. And it looked like a shower or two clipped the extreme northeast corners of the  state in the afternoon. More rain is on the horizon

REST OF TODAY

Today has a good shot at being the ninth consecutive day with rain somewhere in the state.   

A couple showers or even a rumble of thunder could enter western Vermont as soon as this afternoon. Mostly later this afternoon, but I noticed a couple very small downpours had formed near Plattsburgh, New York as of 12:30 p.m. But a warm front attached to a weak area of low pressure that's now near Michigan. All of Vermont will get wet overnight and early tomorrow morning. 

The best guess for now is northern areas should get a quarter inch of rain or so. Central Vermont gets a third of an inch and souther areas are closer to three quarters of an inch. There will be a lot of exceptions  to this, as some heavier downpours and thunderstorms might be mixed in with all this. 

NOAA has central and southern Vermont in a marginal risk for flash flooding tonight because of the risk of heavy downpours from very late this afternoon through tonight. . If any flooding does happen, it will be isolated and probably quite minor.

FRIDAY

There should be something of a break in the action during the morning, when showers become generally lighter and much more widely scattered. Bur then a weather front enters the picture in the afternoon. I wouldn't go so far as to call it a cold front because the air behind it isn't really any colder than the air in front of it.

But a front is zone in which winds converge, and that will be enough to fire up some afternoon showers and thunderstorms Those showers and storms will be pretty widespread around Vermont, so almost everybody will get wet again during the afternoon and evening. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction center gives southern Vermont a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning one or two spots could see some damaging winds. 

As is always the case with thunderstorms, rainfall will be super variable Friday afternoon and evening. A few places might get a real gullywasher, enough to maybe erode some steep gravel driveways or roads in a couple spots. 

A handful of spots will get practically nothing, while many of us will just see some typical showers nd storms. 

SATURDAY AND BEYOND

Increasing heat and humidity is the story Saturday through the middle of next week. This weekend won't be too bad with highs in the low 80s amid moderate humidity. But that humidity will increase Monday through at least Wednesday. 

It's unclear how hot it will get. That depends on how many clouds, showers and storms are around. But warmer valleys have a shot at 90 degrees.  Even if doesn't get that hot, nights will be really stuffy due to the muggy air

Vermont Weather Quieting Down, But Not Super Quiet; Next Round Of Showers Thursday Night/Friday

A sunny start to the day today in St Albans. The peonies
have gone by and need to be dead headed. The stalks of
the day lilies are up and will bloom soon. That will
be a sign that the peak of summer has arrived, The
weather forecast indicates the same thing. 

At least here in northwest Vermont, Tuesday turned out to be a classical beautiful summer day.  The blue sky was flecked with puffy clouds as highs reached to near 80 in the Champlain Valley. 

It was cloudier in southern Vermont, but still pretty good. All of us will get to share in the summer weather most of us love before rain risks return Thursday nigh and Friday. 

Spoiler: The next round of showers and possible storms will not be as wild as the tornadic stuff we had  last week.

As always, let's get into the details:

TODAY

We've got a nearly perfect summer day in store. Temperatures at dawn started in the comfortable 50s as dawn broke. What is basically the strongest sunshine of the year will boost afternoon temperatures into the 70s and low 80s. The humidity will stay reasonable all day. Once again, the blue sky will become decorated by a few puffy clouds. 

Highs should reach well into the 70s again for most of us, with the usual banana belt warmer valleys flirting with 80 degrees again. 

THURSDAY

Another decent day, though you'll probably notice more clouds coming in during the afternoon. The humidity will creep up, but just a little. You'll only notice it a little. Highs again in the 70s to around 80.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY

Our next wet period. But it doesn't look like we'll drown in torrential downpours like some events we've seen this month. 

As is almost always the case during the summer, showers and thunderstorms might have some heavy downpours in them. If current forecasts hold, though, it doesn't look like we'll really have any kind of flood threat, despite our pretty swampy ground from all the rain we've had this month.

Early guesses give us very roughly a third to two thirds of an inch of rain out of this system. Again as usual for summer, some places will miss out and get very little. Some other towns will get some big downpours and maybe to to an inch or rain. 

Fingers crossed it also doesn't look like there will be widespread severe thunderstorms. We'll keep an  eye on this because you really don't know for sure if storm will get too rambunctious until the day the storms arrive. 

WEEKEND

Kind of warm, moderately humid, still a risk of a few thunderstorms, but most of the time will be dry. Very typical summer weather.  It will tend to warm up, with highs in the 80s for most places over the weekend and early next week. 

Although the signs of a warm up are there, I'm still unsure whether this will end in a spell of 90 degree weather or not. Stay tuned! 

Vermont Mostly Done With The Rain For A Couple Days, Warming Trend To Start

After a cloudy, cool day, a shaft of sunlight lit up the
trees just before sunset yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont

 As expected, southern parts of Vermont scored the best rains yesterday and last night. I don't have a lot of reports yet, but Springfield looks like they had 1.21 inches of rain and Bennington a respectable 0.7 inches. 

You get north and the rain tapered off, again as expected. Montpelier had just 0.32 inches. Burlington had a scant 0.01 inches.

It's just as well the north missed out. It's soggy up there. The National Weather Service in South Burlington just released some stats noting just how wet it's been.

In general this time of year, most Vermont towns should expect a little over four inches of rain over a 30 day period. Burlington in the past 30 days has had 6.74 inches. But that's one of northern Vermont's "dry" spots. 

Over the past 30 days, Westfield has had a drenching 11.15 inches so drain. Derby Line was at 9.99 inches. Other totals include 9.98 inches in Underhill Center, 9.92 inches in Montgomery Center, 9.85 inches in Richmond and 9.44 inches in Glover.

FORECAST

It won't be as wet! Here are the details

Today/Tomorrow. 

These sodden towns, and the rest of the state, should stay mostly dry today and tomorrow, for a change. I say "mostly" because cool air aloft today might spark some isolated light showers. A weak disturbance Wednesday could touch off a few more widely scattered showers near the Canadian border. 

But, in general, today and tomorrow will be dry. And we'll start a warming trend. A pretty slow trend, but warmer nonetheless. 

We'll get well into the 70s today, with some upper 70s in the  more banana belt valleys of Vermont. . That'll make today the warmest day since last Wednesday. By tomorrow. highs should touch 80 in many valleys. 

Thursday/Friday

The rain comes back but it's unclear how much.  It looks like much of Thursday will be dry with shower chances maybe ramping up later in the day. We think there will be some showers and storms around Thursday night and Friday, but it's unclear how much rain we'll get.  We're also not sure whether any of the storms will be on the strong side. 

This won't be as big and bold and mighty a weather system as the last one we dealt with, so early guesses are the rain won't be as heavy and the severe weather might not be as widespread as last time. If it happens at all. 

Highs both days should be at least 80 degrees in most towns. Overnight lows will still be reasonable enough at around 60 degrees, give or take.

Next Weekend And Beyond

It looks like full on summer weather will continue to build. Highs by next weekend should at least hit the low 80s for most of us. There might still be some scattered afternoon showers or storms over the weekend, but we're not sure on that yet. 

It'll get even warmer as we get into next week. Some signs are pointing toward a downright hot spell to settle in some time next week, just in time for July

Gulf Coast Awash In Deep Floodwaters After Sputtering Tropical Storm Dumps Feet Of Rain, Tornadoes Won't Leave Illinois Alone

A badly flooded home in southern 
Mississippi last week. Photo via 
Facebook, Gulf Coast Severe
Weather and Tropics. 

If you think we've had enough of tornadoes and torrential rains here in Vermont, it could be worse. Much, much worse. 

The Gulf Coast states have been awash in extreme flooding after record rainfall. Illinois has endured a record number of tornadoes, and surrounding states are cowering under the severe weather. Let's take a look:

GULF COAST

A small, weak tropical storm led to extreme flooding in recent days that was anything but small and weak. 

The flooding began in Texas early last week as a disorganized system in the western Gulf of Mexico flung enormous amounts of moisture into the state's coastline.

By Wednesday, the system organized itself enough to be declared Tropical Storm Arthur, the first storm of the Atlantic hurricane sassoon. 

It reached top winds of only 45 mph and lived really less than a day as it came inland over the eastern Texas coast. But the remnants of the storm did what slow moving remains of tropical storms do: It released unbelievable amounts of rain, especially in southern Alabama and Mississippi

According to NBC, rain fell in parts of southern Louisiana and Mississippi at a rate of three inches per hours Thursday. For comparison, it normally takes about three weeks to accumulate three inches of rain during a summer month in Vermont. 

At least five people have died in the flooding that has extended from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. More than two feet of rain fell in Louisiana this week. Louisiana and Mississippi record more than a foot of rain in just 12 hours, which is insane. 

AccuWeather estimates Arthur and the flood before and after it formed would cause $4 to $6 billion in damage and economic losses through property and infrastructure damage, power outages, flight delays and business interruptions. 

The worst of the rain has ended in the Gulf Coast states. But sporadic heavy showers and thunderstorms will keep going this week. 

ILLINOIS

A large Illinois tornado yesterday. The state has had a
record number of tornadoes this year and there will
probably be more. Photo via Facebook from 
Storm Chaser Jaden Pappenheim

Illinois has seemingly become the tornado capitol of the United States. The state sees tornadoes every year, of course, given that it's in the Midwest. 

There were 35 reports of tornadoes in southeast Illinois and southern Indiana Sunday.

Through Sunday,  Illinois has had as many as 197 tornadoes  this year, and not all storm damage has been assessed yet to determine whether additional tornadoes have touched down. This breaks the record for the most Illinois tornadoes in a single year. The previous record was 142 two years ago. 

No other state has had as many tornadoes this year as Illinois. This might be yet another sign that tornado alley is drifting from the central and southern Plains to points east and north. As noted, bad tornadoes have hit Illinois in the past, but they do seem to becoming more frequent there, and in northern states like Ohio and Michigan. 

Sunday's tornadoes included one powerful twister that killed two people in Jefferson County, Illinois. 

After something of a break over the next couple of days, the weather setup suggests another severe weather and possible tornado outbreak 

Videos

NBC gives a good overview of the Gulf Coast flooding here. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

View of the deadly tornado in southern Illinois Sunday. It was one of up to three dozen twisters in the Midwest. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.