The forecast for the first part of this week, especially Tuesday turns very hot.
And for many people, especially in northern parts of the state, the forecast turns frightening. A significant severe storm outbreak is now expected across northern New York and northern New England Tuesday evening and night.
That includes Vermont, especially for areas along and north of Route 2.
More on that in a bit
You probably wouldn't call Sunday's weather cool, but at least as measured in Burlington, the low temperature was 57 degrees. was the "coldest" start to the day since June 24.
But, Sunday afternoon temperatures reached the low to mid 80s, so summer lives on,
Today to an extent, and especially Tuesday, we will briefly experience the other side of summer. The side that's no so pleasant. The side that's uncomfortable, annoying, even dangerous, as noted above Let's get into the details, in chronologicalorder
TODAY
It will try to get hotter today, but a semi-warm front will try to interfere with that process with some clouds and maybe some showers. But the sun will be out much of the time. The scattered showers will be pretty light, and mostly in northern Vermont late this afternoon and this evening,
Highs will get well into the 80s.
TUESDAY
This time period will bring Vermont some of its most dramatic weather in years. There's still some question about how hot it will get. And how humid.
The forecast, as I noted yesterday, was for hot air to blast in from Montana and North Dakota.
Large parts of the northern and central Rocky Mountains were absolutely insane yesterday. It was as hot as 116 degrees in Montana. Several cities set all time record highs including 115 in Miles City, Montana, 111 in Billings, Montana, 109 in both Salt Lake City, Utah and Sheridan, Wyoming.
It won't get to 116 here in Vermont thank goodness, but we do expect a one-day flash of intense heat.
Highs should get well into the 90s amid increasing humidity. The forecast high in Burlington tomorrow is 98 degrees. Which, believe it or not would not be a record high, as it was 100 degrees on that date in 1995.
It is possible, though somewhat unlikely, that a couple places in Vermont could touch 100 degrees tomorrow.
The humidity Tuesday might be a little higher than previously expected. We noticed dew points in the 70s in parts of North Dakota yesterday. So we can at least expect dew points to be in the oppressive 65 to 70 degree range.
It'll be pretty breezy tomorrow, too, so it will be a blast furnace kind of day. Needless to say, a heat advisory is up for most of Vermont.
That all sets us up for what could be a scary Tuesday night
TUESDAY NIGHT
I haven't seen such a threatening severe thunderstorm forecast in years. A sharp cold front will be moving south from Quebec and hitting all that hot, humid air. Conditions are just right to produce what could be a helluva severe storm outbreak in northern areas especially.
And it will hit on the 31st anniversary of one of the worse derechos in the regions history. Early on July 15, 1995 and intense band of storms caused widespread damage in the Adirondacks and southern Vermont.
This time, the target is, as noted, northern New England. As it stands now, the biggest risk zone is along and north of a line from Massena, New York, to Burlington and St. Johnsbury, Vermont, Berlin, New Hampshire, and on up through the northwestern half of Maine.
Those areas are under an enhanced, level three out of five level alert for severe storms Tuesday night an evening. That's a rare designation for our region. The last time any part of Vermont was under an enhanced risk level was on July 16, 2024.
Straight line winds is the main, but not only risk with these potential storms. These winds could be much more powerful than your standard issue severe thunderstorm. We're talking maybe 70 to 80 mph or more in a few locations. (As in all severe storm outbreaks, the area affected will have spotty areas with lots of damage, with other areas not seeing anything super dramatic.)
Large hail is a definite possibility. If you have a garage, put your car inside it tomorrow night.
There's also, once again, a tornado risk with this outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says one or two tornados in the northern New England risk zone could be strong. That's an extremely rare thing to say for this neck of the woods.
And consider this: The only place in the United States that might get a tornado tomorrow or tomorrow night is northern New England. I guess we're the new tornado alley>
This is also going to be a deceptive severe storm event. Usually, things get active in the mid and late afternoon and continue into the early evening. But at 6 p.m. tomorrow, it will probably be sunny and hot, with few if any signs of impending storms.
But the storms should start to cross the border from Quebec toward 8 p.m. The risk of severe weather will probably continue until around 2 a.m. Wednesday.
Nighttime storms are particularly dangerous, because it's harder to see them coming. And many people have shut off their phones for the night, so they can't receive severe storm or tornado warning.s
This is an especially dangerous situation for campers in the woods. If you know anybody is doing that, tell them to get the hell out of the woods and to a safe place by early evening tomorrow. Note that the 1995 derecho killed at least five campers in the Adirondacks.
Another weird thing about this potential severe outbreak is its limited location, at least in the United States. (A broad area of southern Quebec is also under the gun with this system Tuesday afternoon and night).
Given that this is happening at night, the ability to sustain the storms will wane as we get later into the night. Also, the atmospheric wind patterns that will help make these storms so intense will probably start to break down by or shortly after after midnight. l
So the storms will begin to fall apart as they head toward the southern half of Vermont. By the time you get south of Route 4, there is only a marginal (one out of five on the risk scale) risk of severe weather. If you are in Bennington or Brattleboro, chances are you won't see any kind of thunderstorm, not even some lame garden variety thing.
Back north, if this thing goes the way current forecasts suggest, there's going to be some pretty widespread power outages. A lot of trees will come down, some into homes, I imagine. Suddenly, I'm not so thrilled by the large trees in my St. Albans, Vermont yard.
Obviously, forecasts can change. Volatile weather setups like this are notorious for being either worse, or much less severe than forecast. One thing we can hope for is if this whole thing slows down. If the storms wait until later at night than forecast, then they probably won't be as severe. That's a hope, not a forecast.
I obviously will have a big update tomorrow morning in this here blog thingy.
Then, when we get to tomorrow night, have a way to receive weather warnings. A NOAA weather radio is a great resource. I'm also betting local TV meteorologists will cut into regular broadcasting to provide warnings and updates as the storms loom.
It's been a weird summer. Sunny and nice, but also very stormy. So here we go again.
