This Year, No Repeat Of The Traditional July 10 Vermont Flood Disaster; Hot Weather Continues

Lillies soak up this morning's sun this morning in St.
Albans, Vermont. They'll likely soak up some rain
from showers and storms later today and tonight, 

 It reached 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on Wednesday. the eighth time this year it's been at least 90 degrees. 

Summer is only about half over and already, we're among only 42 years out of the past 127 with that many 90s.  However, we're not on pace for any kind of record. In 1949, Burlington endured 26 days in the 90s.

This is the 12th consecutive year with at least eight days in the 90s.  We hadn't come close to a streak like that in the past. Another little sign that our planet is warm. 

There's a chance it could be 90 degrees today, but I think clouds, showers, thunderstorms and humidity might prevent it from getting that hot. 

We're also coming up on July 10. For three years in a row, starting in 2023, Vermont faced serious flooding on that date. This year, it looks highly unlikely. And if there are any floods, it would happen late this afternoon or evening, not tomorrow.  And more importantly, any water trouble would be very minor. 

Let's explain through the details. 

TODAY

It's going to be pretty hot, humid with a risk of thunderstorms today. The storms will hit mostly the northern half of the state, and not everyone will see a shower or storm. Typical summer weather. 

There's a weak cold front lurking in southern Quebec.  As is often the case with lame summer cold fronts, there's a disturbance out ahead of it known as a pre-frontal trough. 

The pre-frontal trough is often most responsible for severe thunderstorms ahead or a cold front. However, this time, the chances of severe storms are relatively low. 

Clouds creeping in today could reduce instability. There's some smoke in the air, too, which sometimes reduces instability a little. Still, it's humid out there and the day is starting out sunny. 

The bottom line is a few storms could become strong to severe, but it won't be anything widespread like those wild storms on July 1. 

Northwestern Vermont is under a marginal risk of severe storms today. That's level 1 out of 5 alert status. That means maybe isolated severe weather. I think that low-level risk should extent throughout northern Vermont, but that's just my gut feeling.

Given the fact it's humid and getting more humid, some of the storms could produce torrential rains. Those gully washers will be pretty localized.  And they shouldn't last especially long in any one place. I suppose there might be a few minor washouts on some steep gravel driveways and along the edges of gravel roads.

 It's true that NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has northern Vermont under a marginal risk for flash floods, but this won't be a big worry. We're not gearing up for another July 10. (I know it's July 9, but the effects would last into July 10). 

After the shower and storms late this afternoon, we should have a lull before showers and a few storms hit again overnight with the actual cold front. Again, nothing to worry about. Aside from maybe some minor erosion at the edges of a couple roads, we should be OK. 

I just hope I didn't jinx everything by being this reassuring, but I, and the real meteorologists looking at this situation, just don't see any signs to create an alarm over this. 

FRIDAY

The front will continue to move south. Showers will linger during the morning, especially south. But in the afternoon, you'll notice a change in the air as the humidity gradually blows out of the state behind the front. Highs should generally be in the low 80s.

WEEKEND

Friday's cold front sets us up for a fantastic weekend. Probably the best summer weather weekend of the year. We'll have warm daytime highs, comfortable nights and low humidity. And the sun will generously shine both days.  Highs will be near 80 Saturday and in the low to mid 80s Sunday. Overnight lows will be generally between 55 and 62 degrees. 

You can't have absolute perfection, however. We have additions to the smoke being generated by fires in central Canada and the western U.S.  Wildfires have reinvigorated south of James Bay, Canada and new ones have broken out in northern Quebec.

At the very least, there will probably be some haze in the air over the weekend. It's hard to say at this point how thick that might become. We'll keep you posted as we get closer to the weekend. 

NEXT WEEK PEEK

The first half of next week should be hot again. A heat dome in the middle of the nation will temporarily stretch eastward, bringing the hot air in.  The heat might be interrupted by disturbances carrying showers and storms, but that's still iffy.

After midweek, the heat dome will move west. That will open the door to a potentially fairly long spell of cool air that would start midweek and go on for possibly several days. 

Green Mountains Of Vermont To Often Fade Behind A Smoky Haze For The Rest Of Summer. A Climate Change Story

Smoke obscures the view along Lake Champlain 
last summer, July 26, 2025.

Vermont's first air quality alert of the summer went into effect this past Sunday. Thankfully, the bad air didn't turn out to be quite as bad as feared.  

The wildfire smoke that was approaching the state from southern Quebec dissipated more and sooner than expected, leaving us with relatively safe air, although it was kind of hazy. 

Get used to the haze. It's going to be with us much of the rest of the summer. And probably the first half of autumn. 

I'm sure we will see more air quality alerts before mountains snows in Canada and the West finally snuff out the fires. 

Huge wildfires are burning in the U.S. West. There's an enormous cluster of fires burning west of Hudson Bay, Canada. More fires are raging in northern Canada. All that smoke has to go somewhere. 

Often, that pollution will end up in the eastern United States, including here in Vermont.  That fact is always a bummer for me. 

During June, North American wildfires were not especially extensive. Which left us with plenty of days in which we could gaze out at the Green Mountains of Vermont and they were.....green.  Luscious, rich, elegant, gorgeous green as far as the eyes could see. All this under a deep, pure blue sky flecked with puffy white clouds. You know, the iconic view of a Vermont summer.  

Those days of clear air will now become much fewer and further between for the rest of the summer.  

Until recent years, wildfire smoke in Vermont hadn't been a thing. Back in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, we did had a lot of "Those Lazy, Hazy, Crazy Days of Summer," as Nat King Cole sang in a 1963 hit. Especially haze. That was mostly ickiness from auto exhaust and factory smokestacks to Vermont's south and west during mid-20th century heat waves. 

The Clean Air Act removed a lot of the haze. Not all of it, but it was an improvement. Then, in the past decade or so,  wildfires around the world, including in North American started getting worse. The hotter world dries out the forests earlier in the spring than they once did. Those forests keep getting more and more parched as sumner goes on.    

So, many of the forests went poof.   

Forest fires now burn more than twice as much tree cover as they did two decades ago, according to University of Maryland researchers. 

All those fires spew smoke, obviously. Per-person exposure to wildlife smoke in the United States was four times higher during 2020-24 on average each year, than during 2006-2019, according to Climate Central. 

The haze from these huge fires often ends up engulfing much if not all of the United States, including here in Vermont. 

Summertime air quality alerts in the Green Mountain State used to be a rarity.  But that's changed. Most recent summers have featured many hazy, acrid days. A few days in the summer nowadays are actually dangerously polluted. 

Even if the pollution isn't enough to prompt those alerts in our climate changed world, the smoke spoils the view.  The mountains, especially those in the distance, fade into a bluish, grayish murk. Some days, the smoke is high overhead, so the mountains still looks vivid and green. But the sky overhead is depressing. Instead of a deep blue, it's an almost colorless, weak =pale grey-blue. 

That looks like Vermont's future for the rest of the summer.  

That's not to say every day will feature haze. Air currents can still thread the needle between the wildfires and the smoky areas to deliver delightfully clear, refreshing air. Or, on some days, the smoke will be thin enough to be just an accent, giving the mountains just an added shade of blue mixed with the green. 

At least the sunrises and sunsets will be more spectacular as the smoke brings out the reds and oranges in the clouds. 

As I write this Wednesday morning, the sky overhead is blue enough, but the distant Adirondacks are barely visible through an off-blue haze the color of exhaust from a malfunctioning 1970s-era Buick.  

Climate change isn't only about heat waves and weird weather. It chips away at our health, our atmosphere, our way of life, our well being.  I just wish the Powers That Be would recognize that when they complain about a lousy view of the mountains during their Vermont summer vacations  

Strange, Sharp Line Between Rain and Clear Skies In Vermont This Morning, Another Hot Spell Looms

A tale of two Vermonts on this morning's satellite
photos. Thicker clouds in central Vermont denote
a band of moderate to briefly heavy rain. 
Meanwhile, northern Vermont is in the clear. 

 Another late start for my morning report as I'm just back from my trip to Maryland. 

Not long after I finally got my hutt out of bed,   I found quite a difference in the weather across Vermont. If you were in Rutland or White River Junction, it was chilly with a soaking rain around 9 a.m. Temperatures were only around 60 at 9 a.m.  

Drive a short distance north to Middlebury and the sun was partly out. By the time you got to Burlington, it was clear blue skies (aside from a slight hint of wildfire smoke) and it was a nice 74 degrees. 

The rain got a little further north than we thought it might yesterday.  That band of moderately heavy rain in central Vermont surprised me a bit. But at least it wasn't the flash-flood producing downpours that hit parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. 

REST OF TODAY

Here in Vermont, things should even out a little today, but it will take its time doing so. The north will stay generally sunny, while the rain in southern Vermont will slowly sink south into Massachusetts. It might take a good part of the day for the rain to finally end near the Massachusetts border.  

Because of the clouds in the south, northern Vermont will end up being the warm spot. It'll get into the low 80s there, while southern Vermont stays in the 70s. 

WEDNESDAY

Another hot spell arrives, but this one will be short and sweet - not as hot as the last go around, and it will only be a couple days' worth. Tomorrow will be sunny and in the upper 80s, with a few spot 90 degree temperatures here and there. 

The humidity will be noticeable, but not nearly as bad as it was a few days ago. Dew points should be in the low to mid 60s, not 70s. So it should be pretty tolerable if you take it slow.

THURSDAY

Another hot one, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms comes into play. Many of us in Vermont should make it to 90 or so. The dew point should get up into the low 70s, so it will feel miserable.  A cold front approaching from Canada should spark some afternoon and evening showers and storms. It's a little early to figure out whether any storms will be strong or severe, but the possibility is there. Stay tuned!

FRIDAY

The cold front continues to stagger through Vermont. Early guesses suggest the morning could be rainy, but we could salvage a decent afternoon if it comes through quickly enough. Especially north. We are't expected all that much rain from this, except in local torrential downpours. 

NEXT WEEKEND:

Potentially very nice after the cold front. It will stay warm with highs in the 80s, but with lower humidity. There's a bunch of wildfires burning in central and northern Canada which means we could see some smoke. 

I'll have a fuller report on a potentially smoky rest of the summer, hopefully later today. 

Dry-Ish Week Continues In Vermont. Past Two Months Have Been Mostly Wet, Giving Us A Drought Cushion

Rain falls from thunderstorm clouds over Lake Champlain
as the sun shines through the rain, Photo looking west
from St. Albans, Vermont on July 10, 2025

The first part of summer in Vermont was wet, but that seems to be sputtering, at least for now. 

The last rains in the Green Mountain State were some scattered showers and thunderstorms central and south on July 4. Northwest Vermont has been dry for several days now. 

The storm that's soaking and/or will soak the Mid-Atlantic states and far southern New England won't really be a factor in Vermont. 

Forecast rainfall far south is now only expected to be a quarter inch at best. Not the half inch to an inch we previously thought might happen. That southern Vermont rain, however light, should come through later today through tomorrow morning. 

There's still a chance the storm could jog north, but don't bet the farm on that. 

Except for scattered sprinkles this afternoon, no rain is forecast after this southern Vermont episode until later Thursday and Friday when a weak cold front is expected to approach and then pass through. 

Although we could end up with some locally heavy downpours with that front, in general, rainfall isn't looking that impressive with that front, at least for now.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
released this map today showing most of 
Vermont has had above normal rainfall over 
the last two months. Yellow area are at
least two inches above normal. Orange areas
are at least four inches on the plus side 

I'm not really worried about drought. I won't be unless weeks go by without much rain. 

These dry spells happen almost every July. And the dry weather will reduce moisture in the ground somewhat. That drying would slightly lessen the risk of flash flooding if torrential rains hit later this summer. 

But this week's dry spell hits as the last vestiges of last summer's dryness finally dissipates in Vermont. 

 The latest U.S. Drought Report, issued last Thursday, had only the tiniest stripe of Vermont encompassing just 1 percent of the state right along the Massachusetts border as "abnormally dry."  

That's the best we've been since at least the late spring of 2025.

Abnormally dry means it's sort of close to drought, but not really there. But overall, Vermont is super lucky. Judging from the latest Drought Monitor map, the only states doing as well with moisture as Vermont are Ohio, Indiana and maybe Michigan.

Rainfall for all of Vermont except parts of the far south has been above normal for the past two months. Some areas north are two inches on the plus side. This all erased lingering drought in eastern Vermont. 

Drought, or at least the maldistribution of rainfall,  has really been a thing in the United States this year. And the shifts in particular areas between flooding and drought and flooding again have been wild. 

Parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland were in pretty steep droughts prior to the deluges causing flash floods there this week, if you want an example

A huge El Nino is developing, which will really keep the weather whacky here in Vermont and in the rest of the world through the next year or so. Even wackier than the climate-changed weather weirdness we've already experienced in recent years.

In general, strong El Ninos cause very warm and dry late summers and autumns here in Vermont, though there's no guarantee that will happen, There's always exceptions. But for now, we can just hope for the increasingly rare type of Goldilocks summer in the Green Mountain State, not too dry, not too wet, not too hot, not too cold. 

The rest of this week will be sort of an imperfect Goldilocks type of period, so I guess we should all enjoy that. 

Ahhhhh! A Cool Vermont Morning To Be Followed By More Hot Weather

An approaching thunderstorm loomed over Frederick,
Maryland late Saturday afternoon. It dropped the 
temperature there from 102 to 77 within an hour,
Meanwhile, Vermont is enjoying some pleasant
low humidity now that the heat wave is over. 

Sorry for the late morning report. Still in Frederick, Maryland visiting and having a great time, which of course disrupts these reports. Oh well, no biggie.  

Yesterday, I endured my third day in a row of 102 degree temperatures.  No extended periods outside. We just hopped quickly from one air conditioned place to another. 

By yesterday afternoon, all lawns had been scorched brown by the blast furnace heat.  Day lilies had all wilted. Any hostas exposed to any sun burned to a crisp. 

We finally had relief late in the afternoon with a strong thunderstorm that dropped the temperature from 102 to 77 within an  hour. Frederick is expecting a high today of 93 degrees, which is better, I guess.

 So I was jealous when I saw that temperatures across Vermont fell into the 50s early this morning. There were even a few upper 40s in the cold spots.  Dew points, that measure of how humid it is, fell into the low 50s late yesterday and last night for most of us. That's even drier air than we were expecting just a couple days ago.

Also, a lot of that smoke that was expected dissipated over southern Quebec, so the smoke attack Vermont was expecting was something of a nothing burger. There's still hints of smoke and haze in the atmosphere today, but it's not bad at all.

TODAY

In Vermont, the weather is not staying cool for long. But at least it won't be as oppressively humid and hot as it was a few days ago. Under the sunshine today, highs will end up in the 80s.  The steamy air is gone for now, so it's another that should make it illegal to stay indoors. 

MONDAY

Holiday weekend is over, so it's back to work.  A weak but hellish little storm along a stalled cold front is unleashing flash floods on parts of the Mid-Atlantic States today and tomorrow. This thing will bulge moisture northward into Vermont, increasing the clouds and creating a rising risk of showers late in the south. 

TUESDAY

Our aforementioned storm will do its work in Vermont Tuesday, but don't worry: No flash floods. There's some questions over exactly how far this thing will come north. The further north it gets, the more rain everyone receives and the heavier it will be.

For now, it looks like a nice half to three quarter inch soaking in far souther Vermont, maybe a tenth to a quarter inch in central Vermont and sprinkles at best north of Route 2. Again, subject to change. The clouds and showers will hold temperatures down Tuesday: Low to mid 70s south, 77 to 82 north.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY

Hotter again, and somewhat more humid. So yup, uncomfortable again. Highs will get into the 80s to near 90.  Showers and thunderstorms should start to creep in later Thursday. 

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: 

A cold front should spread showers and thunderstorms our way. It's way too soon to figure out how many showers and storms and whether they wold be.

LONG RANGE:

The weather pattern is shifting so that a persistent heat dome will set up over the West. That suggests that in the second and third weeks of July might well mean that New England will be the coolest place in the Lower 48. 

Not cold, mind you, just not hot. NOAA's forecast out to 14 days has the Northeast with near near normal temperatures while most of the rest of the U.S. trends hot.  

Vermont Goes Out Of The Heat (Sort Of) And Into The Smoke

It was already sort of hazy as of 10 a.m. as he "Hazecam" view
from\the University of Vermont shows. Note the it's 
hazier on the right side of the photo. That's to the north
and thicker haze and smoke is coming from that direction
for the rest of today. 

 The worst of the heat wave is waning in Vermont now after many places had three 90 degree days in a row. 

One thing I didn't take into consideration, though, when I squawked Friday morning about how much better the weather will be,was the annoying forest fie smoke that's blowing in,   

Here's what's happening: 

TODAY

As expected, a weak cold front is coming through today, from Quebec It's not an impressive front, not at all. No big whoosh of cool, refreshing air.

 Just a trend toward somewhat cooler air and eventually, by late today or tonight, it will no longer be air you can wear. More like run of the mill low-ish, pretty reasonable  humidity.   

We'll still have highs well into the 80s for most of Vermont today, maybe low 80s far north, near 90 warmest valleys south. As we start the day today, the dreaded dew point will start out nasty, in the upper 60s. But it will gradually decline, with that drier air spreading north to south. 

Isolated thunderstorms or showers could accompany this transition, but it won't be anything widespread or dramatic. Most of the showers and storms should be in southern Vermont. 

The problem is this sorta, kinda cooler air is grabbing some smoke and sending it our way.  Some of it's coming from Colorado and other western states. Another big chunk of smoke is coming from a nasty fire burning a little south of James Bay, Canada. 

So, what was supposed to be somewhat refreshing air will have us choking in smoke. It most likely won't be as bad as some of the worst smoke attacks we've had in recent years, but it will be bad enough. 

Nevertheless, an air quality alert is in effect for the northern half of Vermont now through midnight. The smoke starts to come in as soon as the first hint of somewhat less humid air begins to arrive, so it was starting to get hazy and smoky in northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Satellite photos shows the smoke isn't as thick as some past episodes, but it's staying closer to the ground than many other past smoke attacks. 

SUNDAY

The worst of the smoke should be gone, but it will probably remain rather hazy.  It'll still be a nice day, though there should be some extra afternoon clouds. It will also be somewhat less humid. It'll be very warm again, with highs in the 80s. So, unlike what I said yesterday, it won't be a stellar, perfect summer day like last Sunday. But it will still be plenty nice.

MONDAY-THURSDAY

A mostly dry, very warm period. That disturbance we thought would soak southern Vermont Monday looks like it might be going even further south. So at this point, it's looking like only far southern Vermont will get a little wet.

We'll have a slow increase in heat and humidity as we go from Monday to Thursday. It will never get as hot or steamy as it was over the past three days but hot enough. Highs each day will get well into the 80s with some low 90s appearing Wednesday and Thursday.

It's going to be  dry period, despite the kinda high humidity we'll see. There might be isolated showers or storms from time to time but don't bet on it. You'll need to water gardens and plants and things like that. 

Our next shot at substantial rain doesn't come along until next Friday. 

One More Really Hot Day In Vermont, Then It Gets (Slightly) Better

National Weather Service heat risk map for today 
calls for another day of severe to extreme heat in 
the eastern U.S. Purple shading is the most intense het.

The overnight low early this morning in Burlington, Vermont was 76 degrees, so there wasn't much overnight relief from the heat. 

No relief is forthcoming today, though there is at least a dim light at the end of the heat tunnel More on that in a bit. 

THE HEAT SO FAR

A tiny saving grace is the heat hasn't been quite as intense as expected in Vermont, with daily highs running a couple degrees lower than forecasts for the past couple of days. 

That's a contrast to pretty much everywhere in the eastern United States, where the heat has lived up to advance billing.    Yesterday, in Frederick, Maryland,  where I was visiting, I experienced the hottest weather I've ever been in, with a reading of 102 degrees.

In New York City, Central Park reached 100 degrees Friday, the first time it's gotten that hot since July 18. 2012, when it was also 100. Washington DC reached a record high of 102 degrees Friday. The same high temperature of 102 is predicted in Washington today and tomorrow, making Fourth of July celebrations downright dangerous. 

Here in Vermont, it reached 96 in Burlington Friday, short of the predicted peak of 100 degrees.

Montpelier reached 90, hot enough to tie the record high for the date.

So this heat wave hasn't turned out to be the historic Vermont heat wave some of us expected.  It's still hot and very humid. Dangerously so. That Vermont has been falling slightly short of predicted high temperatures doesn't reduce the risk.  The longer a heat wave goes on, the worse it is on the human body. We're on day three today, so those that are vulnerable to the heat are having their worst day yet.

Today is a perfect day to kidnap your elderly or ill neighbors and take them to a cool place. 

Thunderstorms have been harassing Vermonters, too. Friday wasn't as wild as Thursday. But some pretty good, non-severe thunderstorms blew through parts of central Vermont in the evening. The National Weather Service in South Burlington also issued a special weather statement for  a strong storm that clipped the Northeast Kingdom, but that storm quickly dissipated.

Let's get into the specifics of what's coming next. 

TODAY:

It will be almost as hot as yesterday. It really won't feel any different than yesterday. Most of the state will be in the low 90s, with mid 90s for highs in the Banana Belt hot valleys. 

Once again, because of the heat and the humidity, thunderstorms are a risk. I don't think they'll be particularly widespread or severe. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the best chance of strong storms being south and west of Interstate 89 today. In that location there's a marginal, (level one out of five risk)  for storms today. 

More storms and showers should be scattered about tonight ahead of a super weak cold front heading toward us. It will still be a horribly stuffy night.

SATURDAY

Some relief begins. The risk of showers and storms diminishes to nothing north during the morning, and that trend will drift southward during the day. More importantly, you'll start to notice a change in the air during the afternoon and evening. Especially north. It won't turn much less humid, but it will feel a little better. 

Dew points, a measure of how humid it feels out there. will start out near 70 in the morning, which is terribly steamy. By evening, the dew point will be in the OK but not great low 60s.

SUNDAY

The dew points will continue to drift a little lower by Saturday night and Sunday.  That means dawn will break Sunday with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 60, which will feel much better. 

Sunday should be a classic Vermont summer day, much like last Sunday was. That means highs in the 80s, a little warmer than average. Humidity will be reasonable. 

NEXT WEEK

Monday morning will start off cool and dry, with lows in the 50s to near 60, so pretty nice. The warmth and the humidity will creep up again. Some sort of disturbance looks like it will pass  through on Monday. Early indications suggest some heavy rain might fall on southern Vermont with much lighter stuff up north. 

It's an iffy little system, though, so we'll probable be some adjustments to the forecast.

Tuesday and Wednesday, and probably Thursday  turn really warm and humid again, but not as bad as today. Still, warmer spots could touch 90 again midweek.