UPDATE: Confirmed:Tornado Last Night In Williamstown, Vermont, Top Wind 90 MPH

A maple sugaring shack collapsed in a confirmed EF-1
tornado that hit Williamstown, Vermont last night

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington confirmed late this afternoon that a tornado did indeed hit Williamstown, Vermont. 

It was a very brief one. It was 100 yards wide and only traveled just under a half mile (the path was officially 0.43 miles long. The tornado hit at 9:15 p.m. and was on the ground for less than three minutes.

The tornado was rated an EF-1 with winds up to 90 mph. Here's the National Weather Service narrative on this one: 

"Initial damage was observed as sheared tree tops about 100 yards west of damage observed on Chelsea Road, to an old sugarhouse and small building estimated as EF0-EF1. Damage continued east to a neighborhood on Lila's Way, where EF-1 damage to a hone was observed, along with damage to numerous trees, Damage then became scattered wind damage in the form of straight-line winds estimated at 60 to 70 mph. Golf ball size hail with siding and window damage observed along Baptist Street,"

An EF-0 tornado has winds of 65 to 85 mph. An EF-1 has winds of 86 to 110 mph 

I have not seen any reports of injuries which is great!

No tornado warnings were issued before the brief touchdown.  My guess is that since the twister was east of the Green Mountains, radar in the Burlington area was unable to pick up ground level rotation. Or the tornado was so brief it hit between radar scans.

The lack of a tornado warning does not appear to be related to Trump administration cut backs to the National Weather Service.

Meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South had been tracking the tornado's parent thunderstorm all evening. Rotation was detected over the Adirondacks but it appears no tornado touched down there .

The thunderstorm weakened slightly in the Champlain Valley but re-intensified over and east of the Green Mountains. The NWS noticed how much the reinvigorated storm had intensified. At 9:27 p.m., they issued a severe thunderstorm warning

The National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning at 9:27 p.m. for northeastern Orange county and south central Caledonia County. The warning told people in the area to expect 60 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball sized hail.

WPTZ reported that residents were understandably shocked by the storm.  Christian Pratt said he believes the roof of his home was damaged by wind and hail He said the large hail falling on the rood sounded like somebody took a ladder and dumped a load of rocks on the roof. The kitchen window on his house shattered

Vermont averages just one tornado per year. I believe this twister was the first one since July, 2023. This was Vermont's first April tornado on record. The rare occasions when we do see tornadoes usually come during the summer.

Vermont's first March tornado on record occurred just five years ago in Middlebury. 

  

Possible Tornado In Williamstown, Vermont Last Night

Screen grab from WPTZ shows a destroyed barn, and
a collapsed sugar shack (background left). The
National Weather Service is investigating whether
this was caused by a tornado or just strong winds

Personnel from the National Weather Service office in South Burlington are in Williamstown, Vermont, investigating a possible tornado. 

Video from WPTZ showed a destroyed barn on Chelsea Road in Williamstown was destroyed and a collapsed sugar shack collapsed.  Debris was visible tangled in damaged trees. 

 Judging from the video, damage was confined to a limited area. .Trees on the other side of a field behind the wrecked structures looked mostly fine. 

An apparent supercell thunderstorms crossed the Adirondacks early last evening, then moved west to east across central Vermont.  There were reports of hail up to size of golf balls and wind damage in Barre and Orange, which are near Williamstown.

I'll have full update on this once the National Weather Service finishes their survey and reports on their findings. That will come later today or tomorrow morning. 

Summer Air Surged North, Couple Big Vermont Storms, Today, Calmer, Mild, But Nasty Cold Snap Coming

I'm so close to seeing daffodils in my yard after  
yesterday's warm, humid weather and rain. But a looming
hard freeze could damage plants on Monday 

 Our stalled weather front surprised us a bit yesterday when it surged north all the way to the Canadian order.  It was supposed to stay chilly and clammy north. But we got a reprieve. 

I knew it was happening by late morning here in St. Albans when I went outside and noticed it was strangely humid for this time of year. 

The warmth spread all the way across northern Vermont to the Canadian border. Newport and Highgate both reached 71 degrees.

 It was 77 degrees in Burlington, the warmest day so far this year. Rutland reached 80 and Bennington got up to 83 degrees. Not record highs, but impressively warm for this time of year. 

Even more impressive for mid-April was the humidity. The dew point - a good measure of how humid it feels out there - got up to around 60 degrees. That would be considered seasonably humid in July, but it's pretty incredible for April. 

That ensure many of us would see thunderstorms, and sure enough lightning was also detected up to and a bit beyond the Canadian border.  We thought any strong storms would stay in far southern Vermont. But with the front moving further north, the worst of the storms hit central parts of the state

One apparent mini-supercell did cross central Vermont.  It appeared to have some rotation over the Adirondacks, but not nearly enough to produce a tornado. The storm weakened a little as it entered Vermont a little north of Middlebury. 

But it strengthen again in eastern Vermont. Tree damage was reported in Barre and Orange Hail the size of quarters was reported in East Orange.

The storms also produced torrential rain. A little over two inches of rain fell in South Lincoln. 1.83 inches fell in Warren. Jerusalem a hamlet south of Huntington had 1.78 inches.  There might have been a bit of local flash flooding out of those rains, but I haven't seen any such reports. I noticed there was a sharp rise on the Mad River in Moretown last night, but it stopped a little short of flood stage. 

SETTLING DOWN, BUT THEN.......

Our stalled front that's been pestering all week and creating weird temperature variations is finally on its way out. Skies should slowly clear today, revealing a mild afternoon.  And the range in temperatures across Vermont won't be weird, either. Highs will range fro 60 degrees near the Canadian order to near 70 on southern valley floors. 

Tomorrow should be nice, too. Sunshine might tend to fade behind some clouds in the afternoon, especially west. This time, southeastern Vermont might be a touch cooler than the rest of the state for change. 

Winds will come from the southeast, not southwest like they did in southern Vermont for the past few days. Southeast winds come from the cool Atlantic Ocean. So places like Brattleboro might barely make it to 60 degrees while the Champlain Valley flirts with 70

UGH! WINTER COMES BACK

The cold front coming in Saturday night and Sunday really mean business. And not the kind of business we like in the spring. Rain will cone in Saturday night as temperatures start to fall late.

Rain should continue most of Sunday as temperatures fall through the 40s. Rainfall will probably amount to a half inch to three quarters of an inch, give or take.  Then, some of the now light rain showers should change to snow showers Sunday night. Many of us could get a dusting of snow. 

So much for spring. 

It stays bad Monday. We'll start the day at or below freezing, then only get up into the 30s to low 40s during the day. Some places might have record low high temperatures on Monday. The lowest high temperatures on record for that date are in the mid-30s. I think chillier towns like Montpelier or St. Johnsbury could tie or break those records.

Then, it gets well down into the 20s Monday night and early Tuesday. Normally, such temperatures  in the third week in April are unpleasant but not really harmful. .But spring blooms have advanced well beyond normal, especially in southern Vermont where it has been warm all week. A few trees are already starting to green up down that way. 

I'm not sure yet, but Monday night's chill could harm new leaves, springs flowers and even possibly apple and strawberry crops. It depends on  how far buds open by Monday.

I'm full of great news, aren't I?

After that intense for the season cold snap, it will warm up somewhat, but most days through the end of the month and probably into early May will probably be slightly cooler than average. It might be showery at times during that period, but I doubt there will be any big storms. 

Another Severe Storm Risk Southern Vermont In The Summer Air. North To Stay Cool, Rainy Afternoon/Evening

There's a slight risk, level two of three of severe storms
today in the yellow shading. That includes southern Vermont
and central New York. Dark green indicates the possibility
of just very isolated high wind gusts with storms. 

 Our pesky stalled weather front is still with us, bringing warmth to southern Vermont and just seasonal, damp weather to the far north. 

The disparity was great again on Wednesday. In Burlington, the high was 53 degrees. Montpelier reached 57. But in Rutland, it was a summertime high of 77. Bennington reached 79 degrees.

We face yet another day of wide ranging temperatures today. And much like on Tuesday. we're in for another soaking rain north, and the risk of severe storms south. 

The front settled in south-central Vermont overnight. It will slowly lift back north as a warm front, but it probably won't reach far northern Vermont. So it will stay coolish and damp up there. The southern half of Vermont will have another summery day, one that will feel vaguely humid. 

Highs will range from just under 60 degrees at the Canadian border to around 80 degrees in the valleys near the Massachusetts border. 

SEVERE STORMS SOUTH?

I'm slightly more bullish on strong to severe storms in southern Vermont than I was Tuesday, when there were a few strong storms in far southern Vermont. But there are also factors that might prevent a lot of trouble. If the front moves a little north too slowly, it might not clear up and warm up enough to destabilize the air. 

But since the next disturbance will be approaching Vermont later in the day than on Tuesday, I think we can at least fire up some strong storms in the southern half of the state. The best chance of any severe storms would be along and south of Route 4, where NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a level 2 out of 5 risk level. 

The risk of an isolated strong wind gust or hail from a thunderstorm extends up to about Route 2, but ig anything happens in that zone, it should be very isolated. Unless our weather front surprises us and leaps further north than expected.

Always beware of weird springtime warm fronts. 

The later storm arrival schedule today will give time for storms to develop in western and central New York and reach Vermont during peak heating.  The storms will probably actually be stronger in New York state, but a few could reach the Green Mountain State at severe levels. 

That could mean pockets of damaging wind, and hail. There's a very slight chance some supercell thunderstorms could form just ahead often main batch storms. That means once again, there's a very, very low, but not quite zero chance of a brief spinup tornado. But don't focus on that. Focus on the potential wind damage in spots from storms. 

Some of the storms should also have torrential downpours. But the storms' forward motion will be fast enough to prevent much in the way of flooding. 

As always, this will be hit and miss. You won't know if a bad storm is headed your way until you see the dark clouds approaching, hear the thunder, and also maybe hear the weather warnings. 

Especially if you're going to be outdoors have a way to hear any possible warnings or weather statements.

WET NORTH

For northern Vermont, it'll be another wet day. Areas of fog and drizzle early this morning should lift somewhat, leading to relatively dry weather in the late morning and early afternoon. That's your chance to do anything you need to do outdoors. 

There might be a few spot light showers anytime after noon or so in the north. But the bulk of the rain should start to arrive around mid afternoon. The late afternoon and early evening should be quite wet in the north. The rain will taper to areas of drizzle and fog again later tonight. 

Even though northern Vermont will be along or north of that slow, nearly stalled front, that part of the state could still see some non-severe thunderstorms embedded with all the rain. 

Most of the north should see another half to three quarters of an inch of rain. A local downpour might drive the total to an inch in isolated spots. Again, even though it's wet and rivers are running kind of high, it appears the worst we can expect is very minor flooding. 

EVENING THINGS OUT

The disturbance causing today's potentially rough weather will finally be driven out.  Friday and Saturday look much more normal across the entire state. Skies will at least partly clear, and we won't see the big range in temperatures we've gotten used to this week. Highs should range from 60 far north to 70 southern Vermont valleys. So a nice day!

Saturday looks mild and breezy ahead of the next cold front, which will be coming in from the west. Enjoy Saturday, it might be the last nice day we have for awhile. 

SHARPLY COLDER

The cold front on Sunday really means business. It will throw some rain at us Saturday night. By Sunday, it will be downright chilly as temperatures during the day stay steady or fall through the 40s. 

There also might be a cost to all that warm weather in southern Vermont. Plants and trees down there will have really advanced prematurely into spring with all the balmy weather down there.  In the north, spring will not have gotten as far along, since it's been cooler. 

Monday looks frigid, with many of us not getting out of the 30s for highs. We'll have a hard freeze statewide, which could damage buds and sprouts, especially in southern Vermont where it's been really spring. 

We'll keep an eye out on that, but for now, we'll focus on the weather today. Be aware of those incoming storms central and south today. They could be doozies  

Stalled Front To Continue Harassing Vermont With Showers, Storms And Weird Temperatures

This morning's radar shows thunderstorms and heavy rain
in northwest New York near Watertown.  The rain
should weaken some by the time it gets to Vermont, but
it will make for a wet afternoon again. No severe
storms in Vermont today, but they're possible tomorrow

 I knew about an hour after I wrote yesterday's post that severe storms would avoid northern Vermont. North breezes started, introducing cool, stable air to that part of Vermont. 

The stalled west two east front was sharpening  up, with very warm air in southern Vermont, with kind of chilly air to the north. The result was a soaking rain north, and thunderstorms-  some strong  - in the south. 

Trees were reported down in Brattleboro and Vernon. One tree was reported to fall down onto Interstate 89 in Brattleboro, and another one temporarily blocked Route 142 in Vernon.

 Judging from radar images, I suspect the storm also might have caused some damage in lightly populated areas west of Brattleboro. 

We are more or less stuck with the same regime for the next couple of days at least. Northern Vermont should see highs in the 50s today, maybe getting into the low 60s tomorrow. Meanwhile, in the southern Vermont valleys. highs will generally reach the low to mid 70s

Disturbances will continue to ride west to east along our stalled front, causing daily bouts of showers, rain and thunderstorms. 

TODAY

The disturbance coming through this afternoon should be less intense than yesterday's. If there's any thunderstorms at all, they'd be limited to far southern Vermont with no risk of anything severe. 

The north will just be damp. The low clouds and fog early his morning might lift somewhat by noon, but it will still be clouding, cool and somewhat dank. The north should have a rising chance of showers this afternoon, but they won't be nearly as drenching as yesterday. Still, we expect a tenth to a quarter inch of rain this afternoon, so it won't be great being outdoors in that.  

Much like on Tuesday, the storms were in western New York early this morning and were producing a ton of lightning. But unlike yesterday, all that mess is likely to weaken quite a bit by the time it gets to Vermont. 

Highs should range from the low and mid 50s far north to upper 70s far south. Another one of those days! 

TOMORROW

Current severe thunderstorm forecast for tomorrow. Dark green
is level 1 out of 5 risk levels, meaning just a chance of isolated
trouble. Yellow shading is a slightly greater chance of
severe rather. Expect adjustments to this forecast.

A stronger disturbance will come along that stalled front tomorrow. At this point, it looks like Thursday's episode could be similar to yesterday's. 

At least in some ways. These stalled front situations always contain surprises. There will be adjustments to the forecast.  

For now, it looks like the low pressure rippling along the front might push the front northward a little. Since the small storm will be stronger than today's it could add lift and spin to the atmosphere. That means severe thunderstorms might be in play again for the southern half of Vermont. 

 Right now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center gives the highest chances for strong storms to western Rutland and Bennington counties and on into eastern and central New York.  But again, that will probably change somewhat with later forecasts

Northern Vermont can expect another drenching, probably much like yesterday. That means another good half inch of rain, with locally up to an inch. Especially after yesterday, rivers continue to run high, and tomorrow's rain will keep them up.  Flooding is still not expected, but I know the National Weather Service is keeping an eye on it in case rains are unexpectedly heavy. 

High temperatures are tricky for tomorrow, as we still have questions about the amount of cloud cover and the timing of the rain and storms. Early guesses are near 60 near the Canadian border to as high as 80 in the warmest valley floors of far southern Vermont. 

FRIDAY

Yet another disturbance is due Friday, but we don't yet know the strength and timing of that one. Chances are it will be weaker than the one we get tomorrow. 

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

We're finally going to shake out of this stalled weather pattern and front over the weekend, but not necessarily in the way you'd like. At this point, Saturday l, looks decent enough, with a fairly low chance of rain and mild temperatures, fingers crossed. 

But a more north to south oriented cold front will come in Sunday, followed by much colder air that will stick around for perhaps a week, give or take.  Sunday night and Monday look terrible for this time of year. Not record breaking by any stretch of the imagination, but still unpleasant.

We could get a little snow late Sunday night and early Monday, and highs Monday would barely make it into the low 40s. Normal highs for next Monday are in the mid and upper 50s.

The cold should relax a little after that, but it should stay cooler than normal .The generally cool weather has a shot at lasting into May, unfortunately.  

Tuesday Evening Update: Few Severe Thunderstorm Still Possible Southern Vermont Next Couple Hour. North Just Wet/Cold

National Weather Service radar showed plenty of rain in the
cool air north, with thunderstorms, with a risk of
them becoming severe heading toward southern
Vermont from New York in the warn air down 
there The severe risk should end later this evening. 

 The northern half of Vermont got cheated out of a warm day today, but that chilly air that became established prevented any severe thunderstorms from forming up there. 

However, its a different world south, and as of 4:30 p.m. strong to possibly severe storms were heading toward Vermonts southern four counties. 

That weather front that is draped west to east across our area sharpened up this afternoon.  Temperatures late this afternoon were near 50 in northern areas, with some upper 40s near the Canadian border.

 In this colder air, a disturbance riding west to east along the front was only able to create a rainy afternoon. Some of the rain came down hard at times, and a couple areas reported a rumble or two of thunder, but that's about it. 

As mentioned, southern Vermont is a different world. It was 77 degrees in Rutland, 79 in Bennington and 80 in Springfield as of 4 p.m. Some sun broke out too. The warmth and the sun has made the air  south of that stalled front unstable enough too support strong thunderstorms .  

Those thunderstorms were racing in from  New York State, Some of those storms prompted severe storm warnings. And a severe thunderstorm watch is in effect this evening for the four southern counties of Vermont. 

Judging by how fast they're moving. it looks like the last of those storms will leave southeastern Vermont hy 7 p.m. or so. The rain in northern Vermont should taper off by around the same time. 

That weather front will stay pretty much put over Vermont for the next couple of days. While the contrast might not be as great as it was today, it still looks like we'll have at least a seasonably cool north and a balmy south in the Green Mountain State. 

More rounds of showers and storms are likely both Wednesday and Thursday. The chances of severe storms seem lower than they were today. We'll still have locally heavier downpours here and there north days  It sill doesn't look like it'll be enough to cause much if anything in terms of flooding. 

I'll have much more on this weird weather in tomorrow morning's post. -

Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms In Vermont Today, First Big T-Storm Day of The Year Possible

There's a level two out of five threat of severe 
thunderstorms in yellow shading. That includes
southern Vermont, eastern New York and southwest
New England. There's an even greater chance of 
severe storms in parts of the Upper Midwest today. 

You know it's spring because we in Vermont have our first threat of severe thunderstorms of the season today. 

A few areas in the Green Mountain State could see strong to damaging wind gusts in a few of the storms that could form today. 

The best chances of a severe storm are south of a line from Saranac Lake, New York to Lebanon, New Hampshire, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington tells us.  

That's basically along and south of Route 4 with the risk getting into the southern Champlain Valley as well. The risk in this area is level 2 out of 5 point scale. 

All of the rest of Vermont except maybe the extreme northeast tip has a quite low, but not zero chance of an isolated thunderstorms with potentially damaging winds. 

The culprit is a cluster of thunderstorms in the central and eastern Great Lakes early this morning. They're the leftovers of severe weather that sent a few tornadoes swirling through northern Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin yesterday. 

During the heat of the day, as these storms approach us in northern New England, they might strengthen again. Not nearly enough to give us a round of tornadoes like in the Midwest, but give us the risk of strong winds. 

A "NOWCAST" DAY

The National Weather Service is calling this a "nowcast day." There are so many moving parts that have to line up, or not line up to produce our thunderstorms. And determine how rambunctious they'll get. And where they'll hit.

We won't really know for sure how this is going until things start to bubble this afternoon. Especially going to spend the day outside, you'll want to have a way to hear special weather statements, forecast updates and possibly severe thunderstorms watches or warnings. 

Remember, a watch means maybe. Think of it is as your mother calmly calling you in,  using your nickname. A warning means a severe thunderstorm is coming. That's your mother, angry, urgent, using your full name to get yourself inside. "JOHN MATTHEW SUTKOSKI, GET YOUR ASS IN THE HOUSE NOW OR YOU'LL REALLY HAVE SOMETHING TO BE SORRY FOR!!!!"

Ahem.

Anyway. back to those factors that will go into today's storms. 

One factor is sunshine. Sun heats the atmosphere, to be Captain Obvious here, and that make the air more unstable and leaves more energy for vigorous thunderstorms. We don't know exactly how much clearing we'll get so we'll have to wait and see. As of 8 a.m. today, the clouds were pretty thick across Vermont. It's a wait and see game to determine whether it will clear out at all. 

Early guesses are the best shot of any clearing later this morning and afternoon is along and south of Route 4, which  is one reason why the better chance of strong storms is down in that neck of the woods.

Also, high clouds blowing off the existing storms early this morning in the Great Lakes could race eastward, covering our neck of the woods and maybe suppressing the chances of strong storms. That's another wait and see situation right there. 

Another factor is timing. The models try to develop showers and storms in northern New York early this afternoon. Some of those models bring the shower and storms into Vermont early to mid-afternoon. If that happens, they won't have as much time to develop and won't necessarily be as strong. 

Other models bring the storms in late this afternoon, when they're more likely to be stronger. To complicate things further, the storms might or might not come through in one line. There might be several short lines of storms in various places, or clusters of them, or even isolated ones here and there. 

Upper level winds are stronger north.  If the winds are stronger up above, storms have a better shot of bringing those strong winds down to the surface. So, things aren't lining up perfectly. The best instability is south, but the best winds for strong thunderstorms are north. 

It still does look like upper level winds in southern Vermont are sufficiently strong to at least create seen risk of damaging thunderstorms. 

Here's something else I have to throw in: We have a sort of east to west weather front draped over Vermont or at least nearby in extreme southern Quebec today. You really have to watch weather fronts that are oriented that way. Especially in the spring. You get surprises sometimes from these lazy, sneaky fronts making their fainting couch the Canadian border. 

We'll see a large temperature contrast today in Vermont because of that front. Up along the Canadian border, forecast highs are around 60 degrees. That goes up to 70 by the time you get to Montpelier, low 70s in Rutland and upper 70s in Brattleboro.

The temperature contract could help strengthen storms. At least the ones in the warmer air to the south.

That front also makes it slightly possible we might get one or two storms to start rotating, maybe creating a sort of mini-supercell or two.  I know we equate spinning storms with tornadoes. And there actually is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup today.  Even if a storm is spinning but does not produce a twister, it would tend to be more severe than one that is not spinning

Finally, you might have questions about flooding. Rivers are running sort of high. The ground is pretty squishy, especially where the frost hasn't entirely thawed from the soil yet. Northern Vermont in particular has gotten some rain in the past couple days. 

That will have people asking about flooding. I think we're good in that regard. It's true that some of these storms - if they do come into the state - will pack some pretty torrential downpours. A couple of these downpours might even get a couple small streams out of their banks or erode the edged so some gravel roads. Especially since the soil is so soft this time of year. 

The storms - again if they develop - will be moving right along, so torrential rain won't last long in any one place. Which really reduces the chances of flooding. In general, most of us would receive a safe half inch or so of rain today, give or take. Places that get really bullseyed by more than one storm could get up0 to an inch. 

However, so far at least, it looks like we won't have any real problems with that. But the very low but not zero flooding risk is another reason to pay attention to today's "nowcast" weather updates. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The unsettled, mild to warm weather will continue into the weekend, but we have big changes coming after that. 

Making it seem like summer, showers and possible thunderstorms - most likely in the afternoons and evenings - are a good bet each day Wednesday through Friday. No word yet on whether any of those storms will be strong. It's another thing we'll need to wait for details on.

A strong cold front Sunday will knock us back down to early spring reality.  Forecasts call for highs in the 40s by next Monday.