A Wet Spell Coming To Vermont: Some Risk Of Flash Flooding; Far North Might Miss Out

National Weather Service forecast map. Through Thursday
morning. If this forecast holds, the southern half of 
Vermont would get more than an inch of rain, with
local amounts much higher. Northern Vermont 
looks like it will get less. 

Today is dawning as it did the past couple of days, sunny, a little hazy from atmospheric wildfire smoke in the air.  

According to WCAX meteorologist Gunnar Consul said that Sunday was the exact midpoint between Burlington's average last and spring snowfall. So, we're in the midsummer doldrums. 

Which means slow moving, sluggish weather systems. 

For most of us, today will be a relatively nice day. But if you were a geek watching weather radar yesterday, you saw some slow moving showers and thunderstorms in the Adirondacks. There's not much motion of the atmosphere so they kind of sat there. 

The same state of affairs will happen today, and that introduces a rainy stretch that will lead to the risk of some localized flooding over the next few days. I'm absolutely not in panic mode like I was before  the big summer floods of 2023 and 2024. 

This episode doesn't look nearly as dire as that, unless there's some incredible surprise all the meteorologists are missing. But be on the lookout for the risk of some local flash flood problems that might erupt between today and Thursday.  

TODAY

The local flash flood risk starts today, almost exclusively in the Adirondacks. And maybe the western side of Lake Champlain in New York. That said, the chances of that happening are low. I just mentioned it because storms that develop won't move much. So they could dump huge amounts of rain in very small, pinpoint areas. That can be dangerous within the steep slopes of the Adirondacks.  

Here in Vermont, we'll watch the storms erupt here and there to our west, on the other side of Lake Champlain. Eventually, later this afternoon and early evening, a few showers or storms will erupt in Vermont, too. Most of us will stay dry and enjoy a nice day. Maybe 30 percent of us will get some rain by sunset. 

Because storms will be few and far between, it will get well into the 80s again today. 

TUESDAY

A much better chance of showers and thunderstorms, at least in the western half of the area. The disturbance causing the showery weather will have moved only slightly east. 

So there's an excellent chance of rain in southwest Vermont and New York. Much of central Vermont and the Champlain Valley has a very good chance of showers and storms. Again, since all the showers and storm will be moving very slowly, and some will contain torrential downpours.  All but the far Northeast Kingdom is under a marginal, level one of four risk of local flash floods. 

Northeastern Vermont should get through the day with just widely scattered showers and storms, so there risk os lover there. 

Again, this won't be a widespread problem. Since there will be sunshine, too, most of us should get into the low and mid 80s. The humidity will have risen somewhat, too. So it will be a partly cloudy, hazy, muggy day with the ever-present chance of showers and storms especially south and west of Interstate 89

WEDNESDAY

This will be the day with the best chance of rain. A nearly stalled weak but very wet storm will wander somewhere around New England and New York. This will set up a wet flow of air from the southeast - off the Atlantic Ocean - will push into New England, including Vermont. The heaviest rain will fall in southern Vermont, especially along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

We'll have to watch whichever spots ended up with the heaviest rainstorms on Tuesday will have to be watched for local flash floods. All but far northern Vermont is once again in a marginal, level one out of four on the risk scale. Areas in far southern Vermont - along Route 9 - are in a level 2 slight risk zone, as is most of southern New England. 

Areas in far northern Vermont that really need the rain look like they might miss out. It will rain up there. Any rain is good, but as it looks now, it probably won't be a deep soaker. 

Rainfall will be highly variable as it always is with showers and thunderstorms. In general, current forecasts give southern Vermont an inch or two of rain, with generally an inch in central Vermont. Far northern Vermont looks to receive only a half inch or so. Nice, but not enough.

Overall, with all the clouds and rain, it will be cool, but humid, with temperatures hovering in the 70s

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

Lingering showers and rumbles of thunder as that slow, rambling storm slowly leaves. So it will be an unsettled, iffy day. Some showers might linger into Friday. But warm, rather sunny, kind of humid weather will linger Friday and Saturday. Another sluggish system looks like it might arrive Sunday with more showers and storms. 

Will The Vermont Rains Coming This Week Be Just What The Doctor Ordered Or Too Much Of A Good Thing?

Summer flowers this morning in St. Albans, Vermont.
The gardens are a bit parched and need rain. We'll
get some, but will it ultimately be too much?

Vermont is in for one more gorgeous summer day today. As previously advertised, this is one of the best weather weekends of the year. 

Today will be almost the same as yesterday, with highs in the 80s under generally sunny skies. There's a bit more wildfire smoke in the air than on Saturday ,but it shouldn't be thick enough to be hard on our lungs or dim the sun much. 

It looks like rain chances will slowly increase between tomorrow and Tuesday. But the showers and thunderstorms will be slow to work into Vermont. And there are big questions as to whether we will have a lot of rain or practically nothing. 

Even though the bulk of the rain will come between Tuesday and Thursday, we still don't know the outcome. We will have one of these three options: 

1. At least parts of the state get cheated, and needed rain doesn't materialize to any great extent So far,  this looks like the least likely scenario

2..Repeated showers and thunderstorms, and possibly a period or two of just steady rain comes through over the course of three days. But the downpours are not too excessive. So we get a nice soaker, but no threat of flooding. This is exactly what we want, and the forecast is leaning slightly toward this scenario. 

3. Too much of a good thing. The downpours linger and become frequent and heavy. There's so much rain that we end up with flooding problems. At this point, if this scenario does happen, it looks like southern Vermont has the highest rise. 

Here's how forecasts think things will happen, including the questions. 

MONDAY

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms might develop during the afternoon.  They're most likely to focus on the Adirondacks. Over here in Vermont, most of us won't see any rain. Perhaps 20 to 30 percent of us will see some at least some rain. It will stay very warm, with highs probably well into the 80s. It'll be slightly more humid than today, but not insanely oppressive.

TUESDAY

Here's where the question marks in the forecast really start. Tuesday through Thursday, it will depend on whether an upper level area of low pressure forms and nearly stalls. And exactly where it happens. 

For Tuesday, it looks like it will be more humid, with a greater chance of showers and storms than on Monday. If the weather system comes in as just a disturbance, we'll have a fair number of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, but nothing incredible.

 If a an upper level low pressure system forms, the rain will be more widespread and the downpours heavier.  That could lead to isolated instances of relatively minor flash flooding. 

For now, Vermont, and most of New England for that matter, is under a marginal, level one out of four level risk of isolated flash floods. 

WEDNESDAY

This is the big question mark day. It'll pretty much definitely rain, at least somewhere in Vermont. The question is, will that upper level storm form, and if so, where will it meander?

If the upper level low does form and stall, somebody under or near it or could receive some flooding rain. Some weather models don't predict this storm to form. Others say it will, but it will happen south and east of Vermont, so no real trouble for us. A few other models have this thing over or near Vermont, opening the door for potentially torrential rains. 

I'm not sure which scenario will unfold. In fact, nobody is sure. So we'll have to wait and see.

For now, southern and central New England, including southern Vermont, is under a slight risk, level two out of four level risk of flash flooding. It's unusual to have that level risk three days in advance, so we'll have to watch this. 

I'm not raising flood alarms yet, but we'll have to watch this.

THURSDAY

Still some lingering showers, but whatever weather system will be harassing us will be starting to move out.  

As always, we'll see how this develops.  It is one of those situations in which we won't know how this will play out until we get much closer to the event. 

Will Weather Pattern Adjustment Might Eventually Soak Vermont. Maybe

National Weather Service has decent rains over much of
New England including Vermont over the next seven 
days. Purple shading is at least 1.5 inches of rain.
If this forecast materializes, almost all of that
rain would fall between Tuesday and Thursday.
Forecast is subject to big changes, though. It's 
possible we'll end up missing out again. 

As we enjoy our beautiful summer weekend, our gardens are getting a little fed up with all this sunshine. 

It's getting drier and drier out there. No drought to report out there yet. But we could be heading in that direction if widespread rain doesn't arrive soon. 

The ongoing dry weather is well-timed, since it's hitting on the weekend. Comfortable nights, warm summer day on Saturdays and Sundays during Vermont's short summers are precious. So let's enjoy it. 

A little shift is coming up in the weather pattern that could, perhaps, give Vermont a good soaking during the work week. 

For the past couple weeks, a heat dome was positioned over the Rockies and Plains states. The corresponding dip in the jet stream sent quick storms racing across the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States, causing outbreaks of severe weather in those places. 

Vermont would get some rain out of these, but it was generally hit or miss. We'd also get some severe weather, but not nearly to the extent as places south and west of here. 

Now, there's a subtle shift setting up. The heat dome in the Rockies is nudging just a bit further west. So is the base of the jet stream dip in the East. At first, we'll just have more of the same, with a batch of severe weather in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Monday and in the Mid-Atlantic states Tuesday. 

But with the base of the jet stream dip a tiny bit to our west, there's an opportunity for the next weather system to slow down and sit near us for a few days next week.  That could bring a statewide, soaking rain.  

The computer forecasting models are still disagreeing on how much things will slow down and how much rain might fall. We might still only receive a little rain, as the moisture could slip off the East Coast before ever making it to Vermont.    

We have been cheated out of a soaking rain frequently in the past couple weeks, so that dry scenario is definitely possible.  But some other  forecasts give us an inch or two.

There's also a slight chance there could be too much of a good thing. If it rains too hard we could see some flooding. The risk of that happening so far looks to be on the low side, but it bears watching, just in case. 

The first chances of showers or thunderstorms would arrive Monday. But those look to be hit and miss, probably mostly miss, so there wouldn't be too much rain then. 

The bulk of the showers and storms would come through Tuesday and Wednesday, as it looks now .

We'll obviously update you as the possible rainstorms draw nearer next wee 

Severe U.S. Storms Since June Have Yielded Destruction, And Dramatic Videos.

Severe flooding last week in West Virginia. As you can 
tell from the videos in this post, it has been a stormy
summer in the United States. 

This summer seems like it's been a particularly stormy one. 

It seems every time I turn around, there's more news articles about tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, microbursts and flash floods. 

More floods and storms are on the horizon in the South, Midwest and parts of the Northeast in the coming days. 

But here's a visual look back, midway through this turbulent summer. 

As always, we have bunch of videos to share, to show you that whatever bad weather you've had this summer, somebody else had it worse. 

We'll start back on June 8, in Kansas.  Straight line winds were reported gusting as high as 113 mph last Salinas, Kansas. 

I don't think the video captures the peak of the storm, but it still looks strikingly like a hurricane. In Kansas. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

There's usually still plenty of tornadoes across the United States in Juneau.   Skydrama Weather Co tracked a few tornadoes across northern Missouri on June 10.  Always interesting to see the shapeshifting tornadoes how they go from one form to the next.  This is one of those shiftshapers. The end of the video shows a beautiful, strange blue and purple supercell coming into Kirksville, Missouri. The blue indicates lots of hail in the storm.

As always, click on this link to view, of if you see the image below, click on that. 

Skydrama Weather Co has more tornado footage, this from a June 11 tornado outbreak in Illinois. They caught several tornadoes I'm struck by how fast their forward speed was, especially the large tornado that opens the clip. Click in this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that 

From Brian Emfinger, we have a video from a drone taken on June 11 showing a narrow, drill bit style tornado, going through fields and solar farms in Ipava, Illinois. Luckily, the tornado is weak, as it only damages a few solar panels. 

Eventually the tornado goes into the town itself, but again, weak enough to cause little damage. Still, it's a fascinating video.  Much more destructive tornadoes struck Illinois and Indiana that day. 

Click on this link to view the drone clip of the tornado or if you see the image below, click on that. 

The Fourth of July brought lots of strong and severe thunderstorms that swept through the eastern United States over the holiday. 

One of the storms hit Lititz, Pennsylvania as the city geared up for their Fourth of July. It looks like it was one of those deals where people get there early, stake their places with blankets and belongings, and wander around to enjoy the day's festivities. 

Then a severe thunderstorm blew in. Good luck figured out who set things where. As you'll see in the video, it was a mess, to put it mildly. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

On July 6, the eastern United States were still going full steam. Torrential storms caused damaging flash flooding in New Jersey. 

Part of the roof of a BJ's Warehouse in Ocean Township, collapsed under the weight of the torrential downpours. Miraculously, nobody was seriously injured, including the older man in the video who was swept to the side by water, display tables and debris. 

 Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In early July, Super Typhoon Bavi hit the island of Rota in the Northern Mariana Island with 180 mph sustained winds. As you would imagine, the destruction was basically total.

Click on this link to view how bad a Category 5 typhoon can be. Or, if you see the image below, click on that

Brian Emfinger bring us a video, mostly drone footage, of the aftermath of an extreme flash flood near Lesterville, Missouri. A foot of rain fell in just a few hours, creating an extreme flash flood that swept through a campground. In looks like at least a couple dozen people were rescued from roofs including some where were stranded atop a collapsed building 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Large fires broke out in Ontario, Canada recently, as we know from the wildfire smoke that has drifted in recent weeks across southeast Canada and the northern and eastern United States.  This video shows Canadian National Railway Company (CN Rail) on the tracks near Armstrong, Ontario as flames surrounded them. I'm struck by how calm the narrator with his Canadian accent inside the train.

Click here to see the video, or if you see the image below click on that. 

Severe storms unleashes extreme flash flooding Tuesday in West Virginia. The disaster reminded me of what happened across Vermont in July, 2023. It was that bad. Even the West Virginia landscape looks similar to Vermont.  

The Associated Press has an overview video. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

Tropical Storm Bertha formed a few days go and sort of bounced westward along the northern Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper level winds prevented the storm from amounting to much. Winds never got above 50 mph, and most of the rough weather stayed offshore 

Unlike a previous tropical storm named Arthur in mid-June, Bertha appears to have caused relatively little damage. Arthur caused torrential rains and severe floods, causing four deaths and at least $1 billion in damage. 

Still, Bertha caused its share of trouble. On Dauphin Island, Alabama, high storm tides shifted sand, trapping cars.  People who tried to drive over sandbars that formed over local roads also soon became trap, as a Live Storms Media video shows. 

Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

The same flood event in West Virginia: A flash flood crashes through the ground floor of a Hilton hotel in Weston, West Virginia. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Gorgeous Vermont Weather To Last Through The Weekend

Despite dry conditions, a rogue petunia emerges from a 
crack between asphalt and an old timber between my
driveway and front deck in St. Albans, Vermont. The
flower will see sunshine, but no rain through the weekend.

 It was another cool morning in Vermont with many spots down in the mid and upper 40s again so you should have had another good sleeping night. 

This launches us into yet another great summer weekend. We've had several good weather weekends this summer, so this is has been one of the better warm seasons we've had.

The next couple of days will feature very warm to borderline hot afternoons, with  pretty tame humidity. So, the beaches, hiking trails and cremee stands will be pretty busy for the next few days. 

Weather systems are moving slowly, so high pressure will be stuck nearly overhead all weekend. Hence the sunshine. 

The details: 

TODAY

The strong July sun will drive temperatures up to the low 80s. If you are counting today as part of your weekend, today will be the coolest day of the stretch. 

Much like yesterday, there's traces of wildfire smoke in the atmosphere over Vermont, but it's not nearly thick enough to be an issue. And what little there is is mostly aloft, so the Green Mountains still look mostly green. 

Since the humidity will be low, the atmosphere will release the day's heat, so we'll have another comfortable night. Most of us will start tomorrow in the 50s, with some 40s in the cold spots, and near 60 if you're close to Lake Champlain. 

SATURDAY

Same as today, except somewhat warmer. Highs should get into the 80s statewide. Dew points, a rough measure of how humid it feels outside, will be in the 50s. That's a little higher than today, but still well within the comfortable range,

SUNDAY

Another wonderful summer day. The hottest towns could touch 90 degrees, though most places will stay in the mid and upper 80s. There might be a couple clouds in the afternoon, but the sun will be out most of the time. You might see a couple thundershowers pop up over the Adirondacks, but it looks doubtful any of those will make it over the lake into Vermont. 

NEXT WEEK

Remember how I mentioned above how weather systems are moving slowly?  We'll pay for that during the first half of next week. The particulars are still vague, but a weather front should move in, and slowly pass through.  That leaves us with some pretty high chances of showers or maybe thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday. 

This isn't exactly bad news, because we need the rain. Especially after the dry weather that started yesterday. Some parts of the state haven't had any decent rains since July 9. Here in St. Albans, I've had only about a quarter inch of rain since July 9.

June Was World's Second Warmest As EL Nino Continues To Build

The world had its second warmest June on record this
year. With an El Nino looming, things could get
even hotter later this year. 

Continuing a trend started earlier this year, June ended up as the second warmest on record for the world, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

The world is just entering a strong El Nino, which is expected to supercharge climate warming. That could start another spate of record hottest months. 

April was the world's fourth warmest. March and May were second warmest. Now, June came in at second warmest. Will coming months be the warmest on record? There's a good chance that will happen.  

In any event, we don't need El Nino to bake the planet. It's been super toasty for the past decade, thanks to climate change. 

The ten warmest Junes have all hit since 2015. If you are under the age of 50, you've never seen a June in which the world's June temperatures were below the 20th century average. 

This June, as you'd expect, there were plenty of spots in the world that were especially warm. Those included northern Canada, western Europe, eastern Australia, much of Siberia, south central Asia. The eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean is especially hot, showing how El Nino has already strongly taken over. 

In western Europe, eight nations had their hottest temperatures on record. Not the June records. The all-time records. 

There's always a couple of pockets of cool weather, despite the overall global warmth.  For some reason, most of Antarctica was on the chilly side. We also saw a small pocket of cold air in north central Asia. It was also sort of nippy in northwest Alaska and in Montana, kind of. It was the 41st coldest June there, so not exactly frigid. 

Also, the cold blob that's been hanging around for years in the Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and Iceland was still there. That's actually another sign of how climate change is messing with the world's weather and ocean systems. 

That Atlantic cold blob stems from extra fresh water entering the ocean from the melting Greenland ice cap. That's slowing the ocean currents that bring warmth to western Europe. 

The end of June brought us to the halfway point of the year. So far, this year is the third hottest out of the past 177 years of record. Only the first halves of 2024 and 2025 were hotter.  

NCEI says that there's a 95 percent chance that 2026 will rank among there four warmest years on record. But as Jeff Masters wrote in Yale Climate Connections, NCEI's data is designed to explicitly exclude El Nino or La Nina from that prediction. 

With El Nino now well into the picture, those almost solid 95 percent odds are even higher. 

UNITED STATES

For the continental United States, June was the 18th warmest on record. That's out of the past 133 years. 

The warmest areas, relative to average were in the Southwest and right along the Northeast coast.As noted above, Montana was the coolest, relative to average, as it was the 41st coolest out of the last 133 years in Big Sky country. 

A broad area from the northern and central Plains, the Ohio Valley and parts of the southeast were somewhere in the middle, not much above or below the long term average.

Here in Vermont, we had our 16th warmest June, according to NCEI

June was the 33rd wettest out of the past 133 years in the Lower 48. The wettest areas were in parts of the Midwest. Illinois had its sixth wettest June. Kansas saw their ninth wettest June. Other relatively wet areas were in the central and western Gulf Coast states and in northern New England. 

Vermont had its 22nd wettest June on record.   

Yes, It Was Autumnal In Vermont But July Cool Spells Aren't That Cool Anymore. Now Back To Regularly Scheduled Summer

Autumn-like clouds overhead and strong winds tilt a tree
in St. Albans yesterday on an autumn-like day. However,
summer cool spells are not as cold as they once were,
thanks largely to climate change. 

Yesterday and last night in Vermont sort of had the feel of early autumn. 

Broken clouds streaked across the sky, but in the afternoon and evening, they were those flat windswept type, not the puffy, rising, almost vertical clouds that are more common in summer. 

The winds for the past few days were gusty and cool, and much stronger than you'd expect in the summer. They gusts were more like what you might see toward November. 

By dawn today, readings were down to the upper 40s and low 50s. The summit of Mount Mansfield was at 39 degrees.

It looks like Burlington made it down to 53 degrees this morning, which will likely be the coolest night this month. 

But in yet another sign of climate change, probably mixed with urban development creating a heat island effect, that 53 low this morning is higher than what the July low routinely reached in the past.

.July temperatures in Burlington reached the 40s most years. But Burlington hasn't had a July low under 50 degrees since 2015. In the 80 years ending in 1990, only 17 years had July lows of 50 or above. In the 36 years since 1990,  all but 10 Julys had a months low of 50 degrees or more.  

To give you an idea how cool some Julys used to be, we can harken back to 1962, which, to be fair, was the chilliest July on record,. That July, eleven mornings started under 50 degrees. One of those mornings bottomed out at 39 degrees, which is still Burlington's coldest July temperature on record. It was 29 degrees in West Burke, Vermont that morning. 

Nothing like that is coming anytime soon, of course. No covering up those tomato plants for quite awhile yet. And, a warming trend is starting. Here's what's coming up over the next few days. 

TODAY

A nice one, with sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze. A strong but dying storm far up in Quebec was throwing clouds into far northern Vermont this morning, but those should mostly clear out. The sky, especially over the mountains, will probably have some puffy clouds building up this afternoon, but they won't be big enough to produce any raindrops.

SATURDAY

Another winner! The day will start off cool with temperatures in the 50s to near 60 at dawn, but rocket into the 80s by afternoon. It'll be another weekend day fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

SUNDAY:

Actually kind of a hot one by afternoon. Highs should get well into the 80s with the warmer valleys getting up to around 88 or 89 degrees. It'll be your beach day, probably. Some clouds might arrive during the afternoon, but those clouds won't turn the sky overcast. The sun will likely more out than in. Any showers should hold off until Sunday night at the earliest. 

Humidity levels should stay pretty reasonable, too. 

NEXT WEEK

The first half of the week looks unsettled with risks of showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. It's still too soon to say how many showers and storms, so stay tuned!