Vermont River Ice Breaking Up Amid Mild Spell, Still Questions About Wednesday

An ice jam on the Mad River in Moretown, Vermont
Sunday. More ice jams are possible on other rivers the
next couple of days amid warm weather. Photo
via Facebook/Patrick Quimby

After the mild temperatures Saturday and continued balmy weather Sunday, at least for the season, the ice on our Vermont rivers is breaking up, sometimes dramatically. 

There were and are some ice jams around the region, and that state of affairs should continue the next few days as the weather stays warm. 

So far, flooding from the ice jams has been pretty minor. 

The worst ones so far is are along the Mad River in Waitsfield and Moretown..  Water behind the jam in Waitsfield rose several feet in minutes. 

The ice also re-routed the Mad River through a parking lot in town. So far, there's been no major damage and the jam is of course being monitored.

At last report, there was another ice jam along the Mad River downstream in Moretown. If the Waitsfield jam breaks abruptly, the added surge of water and ice could cause some flooding in Moretown.

An ice jam broke up along the Missisquoi River around Richford which sent a surge downstream. That flooded and closed the end of Boston Post Road in Enosburg. That spot is a perennial lowland flooding area. 

Also, a mudslide closed part of National Guard Road in South Burlington Saturday, but the road has since reopened.  

Warm weather today and tomorrow will keep thawing the rivers, and more ice jams are a good possibility, which could lead to scattered instances of flooding. Otherwise, the snow is melting rapidly and rivers have risen.  The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield went from 81 inches Friday to 67 inches Sunday, so you can see it's disappearing fast. 

Other than the ice jams, no flooding is expected today and tomorrow, though water levels will be up somewhat. We'll have to watch for at least minor flooding   Wednesday, depending on what a storm does then. More on that in a minute. 

MARCH WARMTH

Temperatures got into the mid-50s in most Vermont valleys Sunday, which was a little above forecast. That makes me wonder if today and tomorrow might get a little warmer than forecast, too. Rather than 50s, I think many valleys might reach the low 60s today. 

 There might be a couple record highs here and there in and near Vermont today and/or tomorrow, but most places will fall short of those records. The record high today in Burlington is 70 degrees, which is higher than most records this time of year. It won't get that warm today.  Burlington has a slim shot of reaching tomorrow's record high of 63 degrees.

Even if there are no record highs, the high temperatures over the next two days are normal for late April, so enjoy it while you can.   

Today will be breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. A warm front passing by to our north was creating showers near and west of Montreal, but the only effect we'll have in Vermont is a few clouds. 

It still looks as if tomorrow might be a couple degrees cooler than today in the north, especially in the northern Champlain Valley, but it will still get into the 50s there. Elsewhere, it looks like more low to even mid 60s, with lighter winds and sunshine. 

Which leads us to what is still our mystery storm for Wednesday

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

The computer models have gotten their act together a little bit more with the projected path of a storm and cold front Wednesday and Thursday. The storm should pass close to or over northwest Vermont

The trouble is there will be a very tight temperature range from one side of the storm to the other. Just to its northwest, it could be cold enough for some freezing rain. Just the storm's southeast, it'll be near 60 degrees.

At this point, it looks like southern Vermont is in for some rain, with only a little snow at the tail end Thursday after the cold front goes through. 

Central and northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley, are still solidly in question mark territory. These areas could still end up experiencing just rain until the very end when there would be a brief changeover to snow before everything ends.

Or, the storm could feature partly or mostly mixed precipitation.  I'm hoping we know more tomorrow. 

The rain, especially if it's still warm, could produce some river flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night.  So whatever happens, there's going to be some hazard to deal with. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Starting Thursday, the warm weather will disappear, and not come back for a long time. There might be a warmish day thrown in here and there over the next two weeks starting Thursday, but most days will be at least seasonably chilly. 

It'll be an active pattern, too. A small storm looks to come through Friday night and Saturday with some snow, maybe mixed with a little rain. Then, a larger storm is then possible next Sunday and Momday. 

 

Signals for unusual warmth, which could result in localized record
highs on Monday and Tuesday, continue. On Monday the warmth looks
pronounced across our area, and then primarily in central and
southern portions of Vermont and the Adirondacks on Tuesday as
slightly cooler air filters in from the north. As far as actual
temperature forecasts, will note there may be too much of a bias
correction with the cold conditions we`ve had over the last couple
of months. Some of the statistical guidance shows more widespread
low to mid 60 high temperatures than the current forecast indicates
for tomorrow; coupled with some of the dynamical models, greatest
confidence in these warmest conditions are in the southern portions
of the Champlain Valley and Upper Valley in Vermont.

Trump Loses Again In His Fight To End New York Congestion Pricing

A court judge once again ruled against the Trump
ad ministration

Donald Trump lost yet another battle in his fight against New York City's congestion pricing.  

Trump's Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy sent a letter to New York authorities last February demanding the city stop charging tolls to motorists driving into Manhattan. Previous rulings allowed the practice to continue while the courts deliberated. 

On Tuesday, Manhattan U.S. District Court Judge Lewis Liman said Duffy had no authority to revoke federal approval for the program.  Congestion pricing can continue. 

Congestion pricing started up in January, 2025. Drivers pay a $9 daytime base fee if they enter Manhattan south of 60th Street. The money uses the revenue to pay for mass transit improvements. New York's Metropolitan Transportation Authority has collected $562 million from the fees in 2025. 

The congestion pricing is mainly designed to reduce congestion in Manhattan and pay for costs and upgrades to public transit. It also has a climate change component, which is why I'm mentioning it in this here blog thingy. 

The theory is that fewer cars means less carbon going up into the atmosphere.  That would ever so slightly blunt New York's contribution to climate change. Every little bit helps, right? The theory is that fewer cars means less carbon going up into the atmosphere.  That would ever so slightly blunt New York's contribution to climate change. Every little bit helps, right?

Trump is strangely fixated on Manhattan's congestion pricing. You'd think he would be bigger fish to fry. 

First off, as New Republic notes, this is was an effort by Trump to please his MAGA base and maintain the fiction where they mentally live. As New Republic notes:

"Trump knows he has many fans among conservative suburbanites who love car culture and - with equal passion - hate an fear the subway, seeing it as a symbol of the chaos and danger in urban live, devouring every scary subway story and raging at the idea that their driving should fund this cesspool of crime. It is a culture war, for sure, a not a particularly new one the provincial and cosmopolitan strains of American lie have always been at odds?."

But worse for Trump,  the congestion pricing battle was a test of his authoritarian aims. It was a test, to make an example out of New York and its governor Kathy Hochul, who kept supporting the congestion pricing. 

As New Republic concluded, to Trump the King must not be defied. 

In this case, he was. By Hochul and he judge, and others. This means other city mayors and state governors might not be so ready to be cowed by Trump after this. 

New York's congestion pricing seems to be working. The New York Metropolitan Transit Authority collected $562 million in fees from congestion pricing in 2025. 

By one estimation, congestion pricing reduced traffic flow by 7.5 percent on certain bridges and tunnels and on FDR and West Side highways

And, although correlation isn't causation, retail sales in lower Manhattan were $900 million higher this January compared to last, a restaurant reservations were up 7 percent. 

Congestion pricing is by no means universally loved. When it started there was a ton of backlash, especially among commuters from New Jersey. 

Advocates of congestion pricing have won this battle, but this thing is far from over. The Trump administration has vowed to appeal the court ruling. 

Sunday Morning Clouds To Clear, Allowing Vermont Rapid Thaw To Continue. HUGE Question Marks Wednesday

Snow cover in my St. Albans, Vermont  back yard
during a sunny interval early Saturday afternoon.....

 The thaw is on, and it's impressive to see how much snow disappeared from my St. Albans, Vermont yard in just 24 hours. 

Most of the warmth yesterday was west of the Green Mountains and at high elevations where the warm air was really able to flow in on strong south winds.

 In Burlington, winds gusted as high as 49 mph Saturday as temperatures reached 50 degrees with sunny intervals overhead.  

Some of us experienced the remnants of what had been strong to severe thunderstorms in western New York. Here in St. Albans, I had a brief gush of particularly strong winds and a brief downpour last evening.  

Some valleys in eastern Vermont stayed in the 30s to around 40 as the south winds couldn't scour out the chill. The snow cover helped create a temperature inversion of shallow cold air, which the winds aloft couldn't overcome.

Springfield was really socked in, as the inversion created a dense overcast, fog and drizzle, They never got past 39 degrees The missed out in the periods of sun western Vermont saw. 

It stayed warm overnight, except in those eastern valleys so the melt continued. The first real ice jam of this thaw formed in the Mad River.  That river is prone to this sort of thing. A flood warning was up for parts of the Mad River Valley this morning due to some water backing up behind the ice jam. 

TODAY

.....and the same backyard view at around 9 a.m. this
morning. We lost a LOT of snow!

What the south winds couldn't do yesterday the sun will today. That is once the sun comes out later this morning.  

Looking at satellite photos, there's quite a few clouds upstream. That makes me less optimistic than many forecasts I've seen calling for a mostly sunny afternoon. I might be missing something, but we'll see.   

But in any event, at least some sun will come out, and that sun should break up any remaining inversion in eastern Vermont.

Almost everyone should even out in the mid 40s to low 50s this afternoon. It was almost that warm in western Vermont early this morning, but a weak flow of cooler air will slow the rate at which we'll warm up.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

There's our sunshine and warmth. Well, at least partial sunshine. It looks like a few clouds will streak the sky Monday, but that won't stop us from getting well into the 50s. Maybe low 60s in a couple spots.  It'll also be kinda windy in the Champlain Valley.

This warm spell has already created record highs in dozens of cities in the central and eastern parts of the nation.  We'll see many more record highs early this week. 

Here in Vermont, it'll be close, but probably no cigar.  Tomorrow's record high in Burlington is 70, so we won't reach that. Tuesday's record high is 63, and I'm doubting that one too, as we're still looking at the risk of slightly cooler air coming down from Quebec.

Still, the record high tomorrow in St Johnsbury is just 60 degrees, so that could be threatened if it gets a little warmer than forecast. And Montpelier's record high on Tuesday is also 60.

Lately, our warm spells have been over-performing, so who knows? Maybe we'll be surprised. 

WEDNESDAY

Speaking of surprises, the computer models are still at odds for Wednesday and how an incoming storm might affect us. One scenario is the storm going to our west, running up over central New York and heading toward maybe Montreal.  That would keep the warm air in Vermont until the cold front arrives Thursday morning. 

That would mean a road of heavy rain before the cold front and some possible flooding. Other scenarios bring the storm further south across New England. That would allow colder air to arrive ahead of the storm. That means at least northern Vermont would end up with mixed precipitation and some snow. 

So, we don't know if our brief heat wave will end Wednesday morning or Thursday morning. We also don't know what kind of weather we'll see at the end of our warm spell. The forecast I'd give now is not at all helpful for Wednesday and Thursday:  Rain, or snow or a mix with highs from the mid 30s to low 60s.

It's kind of annoying that we don't really know what kind of weather we'll have in three days, but that's the nature of March. It really is the most unpredictable weather month of the year.

Oh, and it looks like another storm might sweep through here Friday or Saturday with snow or mixed precipitation. That might be followed by yet another storm a week from Tuesday. Local meteorologists are really going to have to stay on their toes. 

 

At Least Eight Dead In Tornado Outbreak, More Severe Weather Due

Enormous tornado seen shredding a 
neighborhood on Friday across still
partly frozen Union Lake in 
Michigan Friday. 

Tornado season in the United States is off to an early and tragic start. 

So far, at least eight deaths have been reported in tornadoes over the past two days that struck from Texas to Michigan.

As mentioned in an earlier post, a woman and her daughter died in tornado in Oklahoma on Thursday night. 

On Friday, powerful tornadoes unexpectedly struck southern Michigan, killing four people. It was the deadliest day for tornadoes in Michigan since 1980.

Social media has been full of images of a huge tornado chewing up houses in Union City, where three people died. Another tornado hit Three Rivers, where it shredded commercial buildings and houses.  .

Videos are at the bottom of this post.  

Although the forecast indicated there was a small possibility of a  brief, weak tornado in southern Michigan, nobody expected anything like this. This will likely be the earliest on record that twisters of that strength have been seen in Michigan.

Normally, Michigan gets about 13 tornadoes a year, and on average gets just one per year in March.  The only comparable March tornado I can think of off hand was an EF-3 in Dexter, Michigan on March 15, 2012, which destroyed about a dozen homes. 

The Washington Post explains it well:

"The afternoon tornado was particularly striking because it passed over several frozen lakes, including Union Lake. And it did so in an area that may not have been expecting it - the National Weather Service forecast Michigan to have a marginal (1 out of 5) severe weather risk. Only weak, low-end tornadoes were considered plausible, and the main focus of potentially damaging tornadoes on Friday was on the Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley."

Those area were indeed hit later on Friday.  More on that coming up. 

 One persistent supercell thunderstorm swept across southern Michigan, but it's unclear whether that storm produced one tornado with a long path or several tornadoes in succession. The storm formed near a warm front working its way northward. As WaPo noted, meteorologists advise that we should never trust warm fronts in the spring. They often bring unpleasant surprises. 

The first spot that suffered extensive damage was Three Rivers, Michigan, population 7,900.  Video shows the twister crashing into Menard's which issort of the Midwest version of Home Depot or Lowe's 

With shoppers and employees inside, the roof flew off, one end of the store collapsed and much of the front entrance was torn away, Cars were thrown around the parking lot, Amazingly, nobody at Menard's, or anywhere else in town for that matter were seriously injured. 

A still from a video showing a tornado tearing the roof
off of a Menard's in Three Rivers, Michigan, 

One lucky person was the guy unwisely videoing the tornado chaos outside the window of the retail store he was in Despite a giant flock of debris crashing into the store, the window the man was up against did not break. 

Judging from photos of the damage, this tornado might have been an EF-3

As the supercell continued on northeastward, the tornado either continued on northeastward or lifted temporarily before reaching Union City. The tornado that hit this town appeared to be much bigger and likely more powerful than whatever hit Three Rivers

Video showed the tornado roaring through a neighborhood on the north edge of mostly frozen Union Lake. This is where those three people died. A fourth person died elsewhere in southern Michigan, presumably from the tornado.   The broad, wedged shaped tornado could be seen flinging houses and trees into the air.

OKLAHOMA AGAIN

The action shifted back to Oklahoma and surrounding areas toward evening, the part of the nation that was forecast to be at risk for strong tornadoes  

It was the second day in a row tornadoes took the lives of Oklahomans. I mentioned the mother and daughter who died Thursday night in that twister northwest of Oklahoma City. 

Friday night's storms focused in eastern Oklahoma, especially near Tulsa. Two people died when a large tornado mowed through the tiny city of Beggs, south of Tulsa. That tornado wrecked homes and badly damaged a school .

Another tornado caused damage on the north side of Tulsa. 

It's not unheard of to have a tornado outbreak this early in the season, but it's on the rare side, especially considering now widespread the tornadoes and the threat of twisters is with this one. 

So far, we've seen 31 reports of tornadoes since Friday.

It's possible more tornadoes could touch down today somewhere in a band from northeast Texas to western New York. The most likely place for tornadoes are western Pennsylvania and eastern Ohio, where a tornado watch is in effect this afternoon. 

Another outbreak of severe weather and possible tornadoes seems like this coming Tuesday and Wednesday in the Plains and Midwest. 

VIDEOS

The Union City, Michigan tornado, as seen from across Union Lake. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that:

A guy in Three Rivers video'd the tornado as it approached the business he was in. He's damn lucky the window didn't shatter when the wave of debris and high winds hits. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

 

The Big Vermont Thaw Begins, But That Doesn't Mean Winter Is Over

A windy, rainy morning in St. Albans, Vermont. The 
thawing is drawing us into the season of dirty snowbanks
and messy, muddy lawns. The clean landscape of
brilliant white snow is over, for now at least. 

Temperatures were either above freezing or about to be in Vermont as I wrote this not long after dawn today. 

Outside my window in St. Albans, Vermont, rather strong gusty wins are rocking the trees, and occasion rain showers are splashing my windows. 

A few pockets in the Northeast Kingdom were still near freezing, so I imagine there was a little ice in spots over there. But the winter weather advisory for that part of Vermont has been dropped while it gets warmer pretty quickly today. 

It's a classic gloomy, slushy March morning. 

REST OF TODAY

Today won't be the nicest day we've ever had, but at least it's not scary, like out in the Midwest. I'll cover yesterday's outbreak of deadly tornadoes in a separate post later this morning. 

Despite our relatively inclement weather - the clouds, the wind, the showers  - we have a decent shot of having the warmest day of the year so far. It won't exactly be record-breaking, but 50 degrees or so isn't bad.

The warm temperatures, the rising humidity, and the rain showers this morning and this evening will really get the snow melting. I've mentioned the following in earlier posts but it's worth repeating: The warmth and today's strong winds will likely crack and move the ice on Lake Champlain, especially away from the bays and coves.

It's no longer a good idea to venture out onto the ice. The frozen lake party is over.

There are no flood watches out in Vermont at the moment, which is obviously a good thing. The melting snow will make river levels rise, which creates the danger of ice jams, and flooding behind those jams. But those jams will be pretty few and far between. 

Not much rain is falling today, so that won't add much to the runoff. And we won't get any more real rainfall until Wednesday.  The snowmelt alone over the next few days won't really be enough to make all the rivers flood.  

Some of the severe weather from the Midwest will probably make it to western New York and Pennsylvania today with the threat of a tornado or two over there. It's part of that ugly severe weather outbreak I'll post about later today. 

Those big bad thunderstorms will weaken quickly as they head east after trashing areas near Buffalo. By the time what's left of those storms get here, we'll just have some showers, maybe some brief downpours and even the chance of a rumble of thunder this evening.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY

We might have trouble clearing out the skies tomorrow morning, but we should get some sun shining in the afternoon. We turn the clocks ahead tonight, too, don't forget that!

We should make it to the upper 40s to maybe near 50 for the most part by mid to late afternoon. 

The peak of the "heat wave' is Monday. It'll at least be partly sunny, and most of us should make it well into the 50s. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple low 60s pop up.

Tuesday might even be a couple degrees warmer than Monday in southern Vermont, but northern areas will feel the effects of a weak Canadian cold front that could drop temperatures slightly. That front factors into what happens Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY

We do know there's going to be some kind of storm Wednesday, but the computer models are still all over the place on what will happen to us here in Vermont. 

Until the past day or two, the models had been consistent on sending it to our north, giving us one last warm day before reality returned.

Then, yesterday, some models began pushing that storm right over Vermont or a little to the south, which would suggest the risk of a winter storm. 

I have no new clarity this morning. This thing could go to our  north, with just rain and maybe a little snow at the end with the cold front. Or, it could come closer, giving a cold rain with just a little mix of precipitation thrown in. Or, worse, it could turn out to be a horrible mix of snow and ice. 

There's no one scenario that's a stronger contender than the other. We're just going to have to wait and see if the models get themselves together as we draw closer to the event. 

It is only March. We will have winter weather again. Especially since many indications point toward a colder weather pattern again starting late next week and more or less continuing for at least a week after that.  

Friday Evening Update: Volatile U.S. Weather, Quick Forecast Changes Here In Vermont, Icy Overnight?

A tornado tearing up buildings today in
southern Michigan. More volatile weather
is creating the risk of additional tornadoes
over a large area of the Midwest into 
this evening. Photo via Facebook/
Michigan Native Photography 

We're doing a quick Friday evening update today because the combination of near record warm humid air coming up from the south, lots of frigid air still lurking in Canada, and storminess in between is keeping U.S. weather volatile. 

It's also making the weather change fast here in Vermont, and meteorologists really need to stay on their toes over this. 

First, the national picture.

TORNADOES 

The storms have already turned tragic. A mother and daughter died last evening in Major County, Oklahoma, northwest of Oklahoma City, when a tornado hit their van. 

The mom was on the phone with the rest of her family at the time to warn them to take shelter from the approaching tornado

The daughter was a a seventh grader at a local school.

There were 11 reports of tornadoes in the central and southern Plains last evening. 

This evening looks even more volatile. Tornadoes are possible from southern Wisconsin to northeast Texas, with northeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas the principle targets.

Also, a tornado or tornadoes unexpectedly developed in southern Michigan this afternoon. Early reports are this twisters seriously damaged some buildings, including a Menard's. 

Additionally, ssome more severe weather is possible from western New York to central Texas tomorrow.  

Hopefully we do not see any more deaths from this robust early season severe weather outbreak

VERMONT

Ice accumulation map for early tomorrow. Areas of the
Northeast Kingdom and southeast Adirondacks can
expect areas of icy roads. The freezing rain looks
like it will be a little more extensive 
over in New Hampshire

We've got no severe thunderstorms or tornados in our forecast. However, yet another round of light freezing rain is in the cards for the Northeast Kingdom late tonight. 

 Forecasters have increased the amount of rain that will be coming through, so a winter weather advisory is in effect for most places east of the Green Mountains and north of White River Junction. 

Most of the freezing rain would come through between midnight and dawn. 

Those of you who end up with icy weather will only have to deal with slick roads. There won't be any issues with trees or power lines getting too weighed down.

Northwest Vermont will get a little more rain than expected too, but it won't freeze there. Southern Vermont will only get some light rain, 

The rain will tend to taper off during the middle of the day. Strong south winds are still in the cards for the Champlain Valley. 

High temperatures in the 40s to low 50s should hit by later in the afternoon, especially if we see some breaks in the clouds. Another round of showers should come through in the evening.

I'll have much more in tomorrow morning's post. 

Friday Morning Vermont Update: We're Still Getting Our Warm Spell, But Now There's Complications, Of Course!

The snow surrounding the shoveled paths to my shed
should disappear over the next few days. But will
it all come back later next week? Unfortunately,
that's possible. It's March in Vermont after all. 

Especially in March, forecasts of balmy weather in Vermont are often too good to be true. 

We're starting to see it with our upcoming warm spell. We'll still have some nice, mild days coming up. 

But trends are shortening the length of this spell of balmy weather.  And if these trends continue, some of us could end up right back where we started. 

Deep snow cover in the valleys will melt over the next few days, possibly only to be replaced at the end by a wet snowstorm. 

That's a worst-case scenario at this point, but preliminary forecasts for this coming Wednesday are changing. More on that in a bit, because we're getting ahead of ourselves.

COLD AIR DRAINAGE

Speaking of getting cheated out of warmth, that's what happened in parts of Vermont yesterday. We had a strange temperature set up. 

A few days ago, the forecasts for Thursday had highs in the low to mid 40s in the Champlain Valley. Instead, it was only in the mid and upper 20s for the most part. 

That cold, dense, shallow layer of cold air hugging the ground from an Arctic air mass in Canada had no trouble draining down the Richelieu river valley into Vermont's Champlain Valley,

At around 4 p.m., it was 24 degrees in Highgate, 27 in Burlington and Montreal was at 19 degrees. All those stations had north winds of 15 to 25 mph. But the cold, dense air was shallow. It was still above freezing atop Mount Mansfield. And the cold air at least initially couldn't get past the Green Mountains. 

While it was so cold in the Champlain Valley, St. Johnsbury, Montpelier, White River Junction and Springfield were all at either 46 or 47 degrees. It was just strange.

As forecast, rain, sleet, freezing rain and rain hit southern Vermont, but did not penetrate the cold air north. The worst of the weather was down in southern New England. For instance, I noticed Worcester, Massachusetts had at least 11 consecutive hours of freezing rain overnight. The roads must be horrible down there. 

It's the second time southern New England has had disruptive freezing rain this week. Albany, New York was mired in several hours of light freezing rain, too. 

Anyway, back to Vermont and the forecast:

TODAY. 

The mixed precipitation was moving out of southern Vermont early this morning. The north was just cold and dry, with temperatures near 20 or even a little below that.  Forecasters are insisting the cold air drainage in the Champlain Valley will end, and temperature will go back up to the low 40s by mid-afternoon. 

Those temperatures will be aided by a little sunshine north, especially near the Canadian border. More clouds will hang tough further south, keeping readings in the upper 30s.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

An approaching warm front will set off some showers toward morning with increasing south winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. We might once again have to deal with a little more freezing rain early tomorrow, mostly in valleys east of the Green Mountains. It'll only be a little; enough to make the roads a mess but will not come close to creating issues with trees and power lines. 

But any drips and drizzles of freezing rain will quickly go over to plain rain Saturday, which will trend toward just light, scattered showers at most during the day. Highs will reach near 50 west and in the 40s east late in the day. It'll also be windy, with gusts to 40 or 45 mph in the Champlain Valley. 

I'll remind you again that the thawing and strong winds will probably cause ice breakups on Lake Champlain, so I wouldn't venture out there Saturday, or any day after that. I don't want to see anyone disappearing into the distance on an ice floe drifting away. 

A very weak cold front will come through Saturday evening with more showers. There's an ever-so-slight chance you could hear a rumble of thunder, which would be a sign of spring. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

These will be the two nicest days of our warm up. It'll be in the 40s to near 50 Sunday. The day will start cloudy, but clear up in the afternoon. Monday should be the pick the week with highs in the 50s under sunshine. An April day in March. We'll take it!   

Between the warmth and a little bit of rain Saturday and those two days of warmth, we're still looking at ice breakups on the rivers, and the risk of ice jams, as we've been mentioning for days now.  

We're in for one hell of a mud season as temperatures will be above freezing from today through Wednesday. It might get near freezing in some areas on some nights, but that won't be enough to put a halt to the increasing mud. You need a hard freeze for that. 

Even worse, we had a cold winter, so the frost went down deep. The thawing won't easily be able to get past the frozen layer of soil beneath. Which means melt water and such on dirt roads won't be able to drain through the soil. It'll just add to the swampiness of what will inevitably become virtually impassable dirt roads. 

Yes, the frost heaves and pot holes are nasty on our paved roads and highways. That includes the road I live on. But I'm thanking my lucky stars I don't have to deal with a dirt road. Even my driveway is paved!

My condolences if you live on a dirt road. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

This is where we get into the potential changes. For the past few days, we've been assuming these two days would be warm, perhaps record warm. Including sunshine on Tuesday and showers and potential thunderstorms on Wednesday as a storm goes well to our north and drags a cold front through. 

But remember that cold high pressure to our north that made the Champlain Valley so chilly yesterday? Well, another one will set up in northern Quebec. It won't be as chilly as the current one. 

But, it's beginning to look like that chilly air in Quebec wants to squash everything south. So, Tuesday might still be mild, but not as warm as we thought it might be. I'm still not sure what temperatures will end up being on Tuesday. Be ready for anything between the upper 30s to low 60s until we can get that forecast pinned down better. 

And that storm that was supposed to go well to our north on Wednesday? It might end up going right over us. Or even to our south.  That means a cold rain or even a bunch of snow might end up falling. Or it might stay warm enough for a thawing rain. We truly don't know yet, and probably won't know until Monday or even Tuesday.    

This is a really fluid forecast.

As I said at the start of this post, it's March. It's a really unpredictable month. As Vermonters, nice weather is a lot of ask for this time of year. 

At least we'll have a few days of decent weather coming up. We'll take anything we can get.