For Second Time In A Row, Vermont Storm Had Tricks Up Its Sleeves

Another two and a half inches or so of snow
greeted me and our vehicles this morning in
St. Albans, Vermont. The forecast for this
storm has turned out accurate for places
near the Canadian border, but for other 
places in Vermont, well........

This is the time of year when meteorologists might be tempted to give up on the science and flip a coin. 

Early spring is when you tend to get the most surprises and we have some today. As many early Sunday morning risers have already noticed. 

SUNDAY MORNING SURPRISES

Most of Vermont had little or no snow as of 8 a.m. Had forecasters been right the snow would have started two hours earlier. Snow, and some rain ended up arriving after 8 a.m.   

Despite continued forecast to the contrary, I'm doubting many places along and south of Route 2 will see as much snow as had been forecast. But who knows? We seem to be in the season of surprises. 

Meanwhile, a heavier a slug of precipitation was heading into southern Vermont. The further south you go, the warmer it is. Bennington was at 39 degrees as of 8 a.m., so I imagine they'll see mostly rain. It'll be interesting to see at what elevation you have to reach in the southern Green Mountains before it's mostly snow. 

Another big surprise was the dump of snow early this morning near the Canadian border. That snow did arrive in the hours before dawn, as forecast. From what I can tell, areas within 30 miles of the border have gotten at a few inches of snow. There was 2.6 inches of new snow at my place in St Albans as of 9 a.m.  

As of 8 a.m., the snow in St. Albans had turned to a light sleet, with perhaps a few drops of freezing rain mixed in. That's a clue to what we'll deal with this afternoon and evening. A special weather statement from the National Weather Service in South Burlington noted that most of the Champlain Valley was switching over to light freezing rain or drizzle.

When the precipitation gets a little heavier, it goes toward snow. When it gets lighter, freezing drizzle and drizzle. I noticed at around 9 a.m. drizzle changed back to a burst of snow as a zone of heavier precipitation seen on radar moved in. 

As of 9 a.m., temperatures ranged from near freezing to a degree or two above in the Champlain Valley. However, central Vermont is at risk for some freezing drizzle for a few more hours. 

So that annoying icy stuff should just turn into an annoying misty cold spray in your face this afternoon.  

But it will probably go back to freezing drizzle tonight, which will make you have a workout early tomorrow morning scraping a thin but firm coat of ice off at least some of our windshields. It will also make untreated surfaces like driveways and sidewalks icy traps that could have you tumbling to the ground. 

FORECAST BUSTS

I think this storm forecast is turning out to be more of a bust than Friday's. In Friday's storm, forecasts prior to the snow were obviously wrong in the Champlain Valley. But the forecasts for northern Vermont east of the Greens and southern Vermont were actually quite accurate. 

I'm not busting the chops of the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in South Burlington. They do an awesome job. But, these kinds of things keep happening. I continue to wonder - albeit without evidence so far - that steep National Weather Service cutbacks under the Trump administration, is compromising the data that goes into computerized forecasting. 

Bad data equals bad outcomes.

I'm not the only one who is wondering about this. As we reported recently, Michigan's governor and two U.S. Senators sent out inquiries regarding forecasts ahead of deadly tornadoes in southern Michigan earlier this month. 

 I also have to acknowledge that early spring storms have always been notoriously hard to forecast, so that is definitely one important factor in all of this.  Besides, forecasting for this storm wasn't entirely a bust. We knew yesterday the Northeast Kingdom would probably get the most snow, and that seems to be the case. 

And interestingly, in the northern Champlain Valley up by St. Albans and Highgate, it appears the forecast will come out spot on. 

We also thought southern Vermont valleys would get at least some rain and little snow and that also seems to be happening, 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's a scary prospect to forecast given what I've said above, but those meteorologists working on our behalf need to attempt it. After tonight's patchy freezing drizzle, Monday looks like a somewhat unpleasant day, but something we should be used to in March.

That means mostly cloudy skies, snow showers and a chilling north wind. Highs will only make it into the low 30s at best for most of us. Maybe upper 20s in northern hills, and perhaps upper 30s in southern valleys.

Monday night looks cold, of course, with lows in the teens to low 20s. Tuesday looks like the pick of the week with sunny skies and temperatures near 40. That's near to just a smidge cooler than average for this time of year.

Our next storm looks like it will come along Thursday. I don't dare take a stab of what will happen with Thursday's system just yet. But it will probably be a capricious one, just like Friday's storm and today's weather   

 

Quick Saturday Vermont Evening Update: More Snow Still Coming, Won't Disappear Fast

Yet another National Weather Service snow forecast map,
this one for tomorrow Click on the image to make it
bigger and easier to see. 

The sun finally started to shine and more between the clouds this afternoon as those clouds slowly thinned.  

Some of the snow across the north was melting, but not all of it. And we still have more coming tomorrow. More on that in a sec. 

You can see this time of year how snow helps refrigerate the air.  

Where snow covered the ground in the north, mid-afternoon temperatures were mostly in the mid-30s. In southern Vermont, where this is no snow, it was in the low and mid 40s.

With more snow coming nearly statewide, and a generally chilly weather pattern, perhaps until April Fool's Day, I guess we have to say winter is back for now. 

That chilly air over the next 10 days will be made slightly colder than it otherwise would be if the ground was free of snow,   

It's an example of how cold weather patterns this type of year sometimes reinforce themselves.

STORM UPDATE

Now that I've thoroughly depressed you, let's talk about tomorrow's snow. So far, not much has changed with the forecast. The bulk of the snow should come through between a little before dawn to early afternoon. 

Within that time frame, we could have a thump of fairly heavy snow for two or three hours.  That'll be enough to make the roads icy and snow covered again, The worst driving condition will be through the morning and maybe into the early afternoon. This will be another wet snow, but in northern Vermont it maybe not quite as cement-like as Friday's. We'll see about that. 

Total accumulations look like they'll be 2 inches or so in the Champlain and Connecticut River valleys. But once again, those two places are the wild cards that are most likely to get much more, or much less snow than forecast. 

Places with an elevation of 1,000 feet or more can expect three or four inches, maybe a little more in some spots. At this point, the Northeast Kingdom is in the running for a little more, maybe six inches of snow or so.

The northern Green Mountains should get the most, with maybe seven or eight inches of snow. 

One little twist in the forecast is when the snow tapers off in the afternoon, it could mix with drizzle or freezing drizzle in many spots. The freezing drizzle would obviously keep things on the icy side. And places with just plain drizzle tomorrow could end up with it freezing at night. 

We'll be in the midst of the snow will I post about it tomorrow morning. I'll have updates of course, and also, what to expect for the rest of the week. 'Spoiler: Not really springlike! 

Vermont Faces Another Thump Of Wet Snow Tomorrow.

Traffic backed up in Colchester, Vermont Friday aftternoon
due to that big thump of snow. Some or even most
of the state might well see a similar
burst of snow Sunday morning. 

 Now that we got one thump of snow out of the way in northern Vermont, we have another thump of snow on our way that looks like it could cover the entire state in snow, or close to it.   

At least we think so. This next system is at least as capable of giving us surprises as yesterday's snowy welcome to spring. 

Before we get there, we'll get to some final bits of news and factoids about yesterday's snow. 

Pretty much all of northern Vermont got three to six inches of snow.  For areas outside the Champlain Valley those amounts matched expectations. As we know, though, the Champlain Valley got a lot more than expected. 

The deepest accumulations I could see were 6.3 inches in Greensboro and 6 inches in Underhill, Morrisville and Walden.

It just rained in southern Vermont, which again matched the forecast issued prior to the storm. 

To add insult to injury, there was some freezing drizzle and freezing fog scattered around northern Vermont overnight. That, thankfully is now over.

After some morning clouds, fog, and perhaps a couple of stray flurries, the sun will start making more frequent appearances between the clouds as we go through the day. It might even get  mostly sunny for a time this afternoon. We should top out within a few degrees either side of 40 for highs. 

THE STORM 

The next storm is similar to the one we had yesterday, which moved west to east basically over the top of Vermont. 

We have the same questions as we did before yesterday's mess: Who gets snow, who gets rain, and who gets both?

If Sunday's storm goes to our north, everybody gets mostly rain. If it goes right over us, we have another north/south split. If it goes to our south, most of us get snow. 

The computer models, as always it seems, are still arguing over which track this will take. As of this morning, they're sort of leaning toward just south of us. Hence the snowier forecast for now. 

New winter weather advisories cover pretty much the same areas as yesterdays' event, but the advisory zone is a little bigger in size. It covers Vermont from the Green Mountains east from Springfield north to the Canadian border. The Adirondack are also under the advisory. 

The snow or rain, depending on the track of the storm,  should start in the hours leading up to dawn. Much like yesterday, the precipitation should come down hard for a few hours. This time, though, it will be during Sunday morning, not during the Friday afternoon rush, so fewer of us will be affected.

During the afternoon, we'll just have light snow and rain as temperatures get into the 30s. 

If everything works out as expected, - which I am in no way guaranteeing -most valleys would get 2 to 4 inches of wet, cement like snow.  The Green Mountains could get four to eight inches of snow.  This would give a boost to late season skiing, especially north, with yesterday's snow.  

The overall pattern will remain the same trough next week: Cooler than normal for this time of year and unsettled.

Our next shot at stormy weather is next Thursday, but it's still way too soon to think about what we'll deal with in that one. 

 

Friday Evening Vermont Update: Unexpected Champlain Valley Snow Blitz Ending

 Um, happy spring?

Road conditions and visibility were horrible on
Route 15 in Colchester, and in the rest of the 
Champlain Valley this afternoon

Vermont and New York's Champlain Valley got a traffic-snarling dump of snow today, as many of you have already figured out. 

Spring arrived at 10:46 this morning and it started snowing literally minutes after that. 

As I noted this morning, the Champlain Valley was going to be the wildcard with this brief but pretty intense storm. 

The hope was we'd get a fair amount of rain in addition to some slush coming out of the sky But temperatures ended up just a little cooler than everybody expected.

So, it really puked snow for awhile. Visibility was down to almost zero at times during the peak of the snow this afternoon.  

Burlington got 4.9 inches of snow, most of it in just three hours.  That was actually a record snowfall for today's date. The old record was 3.4 inches in 1951. As of early this morning, Burlington was only forecast to receive an inch of snow today. Oops. 

Although mostly snow was expected in northern Vermont along and east of the Green Mountains, the snow fell with such vengeance that there was trouble there, too.

A partial list of road closures because of today's snow include Route 74 in Cornwall, Route 100B in Moretown, Route 302 in Orange and Route 114 in East Burke. 

Back in the Champlain Valley, traffic slowed to a crawl. And backed up epically in some places. 

The 4.9 inches that Burlington got might not be the final total, as it was still snowing lightly when that accumulation was announced. 

The good news is that this blast of snow is pretty much done. The snow was leaving northern Vermont as of 5:30 p.m. and we have only flurries to look forward to tonight.  

Road conditions in the Champlain Valley were rapidly improving. Secondary roads were slushy for the most part as of 5 p.m. Interstate 89, which was a snow covered mess most of the afternoon, was pretty much just wet by 5 p.m. in the Champlain Valley. It helped that it got a little above freezing late this afternoon and this evening after the snow tapered off. 

Do be careful overnight and early Saturday, though. All that slush and water will refreeze, especially on untreated surfaces

Precipitation will keep going at a good rate further into the evening in southern Vermont, but most of that was falling as rain, as expected. 

Clouds will start to break up tomorrow morning and we'll get some sun at least some of the time.

And yes, we're at risk still of another storm Sunday that has a good chance of giving at least part of Vermont more snow. I'll have much more on that forecast today, along with news on continued fairly chilly and sometimes potentially snowy weather again in the upcoming week. 

Videos Show The Wild And Often Scary March Weather This Year

A huge tornado in Illinois early this month. Video of the events
is included in this post 

The first three weeks of March have been a wild weather ride in the United States. The weird weather is continuing, but as we often do, we're looking back at some of the most dramatic weather videos in recent weeks. 

We have a real variety pack this week so let's settle in and watch the excitement. 

This is a view of a deadly tornado in Union City, Michigan on March 6.  It's a view from the south side of Union Lake as the tornado tears through the north side. This view is closer, though, and also includes its initial development. You also see at the end it crosses the still partially frozen lake. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that.

Drone footage showing the aftermath of the tornado in Union City, Michigan. It looks like it hit a nice lakefront area. As always, click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that.

Kind of a long video, but it's worth if for the visuals. It's distant shots of the powerful tornado on Tuesday in Kankakee, Illinois. If  you ever wondered about the green clouds that people talk about when a tornado is near, this is it. 

The greenish bluish hue was due to the fact there as an enormous amount of hail in the storm clouds. The large hail caused a lot of damage even outside the path of the tornado. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

More locally, we had our abrupt March thaw in and near Vermont that brought temperatures to record high levels. The sudden thaw helped create ice jams in area river.\

Here is an iIce jam on the Ausable River in New Yor breaking loose.  Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that:

Next up, my own video of an ice jam, this one on the Missisquoi River in Enosburg, Vermont. Note at 2:30 the birds all go silent just before the jam starts to move. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

If you want to feel chilled to the bone, watch this Fox Weather video of the March 14-16 blizzard in Marquette, Michigan. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that. 

People stuck on an interstate after March 15 blizzard near Green Bay, Wisconsin. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In Oshkosh, Minnesota, Lake Winnebago created what is known as an "ice shove." The ice  on the lakebroke up in thawing temperatures. Strong winds blew the ice onshore onshore, forming immense piles. The ice piles threatened homes but at last check hadn't reached them. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Vermont Turns Wintry: Snow/Rain Today And Computers Still Arguing Over Weekend Storm

Snowfall amounts don't look huge for today's small 
storm, but a burst of heavy precipitation seems like
it might be timed just perfect to hit during
the afternoon commute 

 Things are taking a wintry turn again in Vermont, as we have two potentially wintry storms. One today, and the next maybe over the weekend. 

After a very weak system left a dusting of snow on much of northern Vermont yesterday, the next one is on our doorstep. 

A winter weather advisory is in effect for northern Vermont from the Green Mountains east, and in the Adirondacks and other parts of northern New York today through almost midnight tonight. 

Those areas should see two to four inches of snow in the valleys, and four to six inches at elevations above 2,000 feet.  

The Champlain Valley is the biggest wild card here. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY'S STORM

On paper, today's storm should be a nothing burger. It's a small, compact little thing coming in from the west. Usually, this type of storm are like last night's: They throw a few inconsequential rain drops and snow flakes at us and call it a day. 

Not this one.  It looks like it's finding some nice lift in the atmosphere. In general, the more vigorously air rises, the more precipitation you get. This little storm has also found some atmospheric moisture to work with. The result: A decent batch of rain and snow for us today.

If this were the middle of winter, all of us in Vermont would be getting somewhere between three and eight inches of snow out of this. But much of this storm is coming during the day in the second half of March. The sun angle is now higher and stronger. Despite the clouds, the sun's warmth will penetrate  those clouds will keep some areas too warm for much snow. 

This makes the forecast tricky. Since the temperatures will be so marginal, one slip of the thermometer will make a big difference. If it ends up a degree or two colder than expected where you are, congratulations, you'll be shoveling snow. If it's a degree or two warmer, it'll just be soggy out there. 

Southern Vermont looks like it will simply be too warm for snow.  Even the high elevations should get very little.

Northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain should be cold enough for mostly snow, though there's a good chance rain would mix in through the valleys. In these areas, your afternoon commute will probably be messy, especially away from valley floors. 

Which brings us to the Champlain Valley. Yes, it's warmer here. But like we've seen so often this year, it's a timing issue that causes just a little bit of snow or ice to become a big problem right during commuting hours. We can't catch a break. 

The heaviest rates of precipitation look like they might be in the mid to late afternoon. When precipitation is heavier, it brings down a little cold air. In this case, that might be enough to change rain to snow. 

And it would come down pretty hard, coating roads pretty quickly. So watch out if you have to drive in the Champlain Valley during the afternoon rush hour. Because chances are it will be the slush hour. The best chance of snowy or icy roads in the Champlain Valley are roughly from about Milton north to the Canadian border. 

This storm won't last long. Give or take, depending on where you are, the heaviest rain or snow should only last four or five hours this afternoon or very early evening east. 

After all that, Saturday should be nice with afternoon highs for most of us coming in within a few degrees either side of 40.  The sun will come out, too.

But then..... 

WEEKEND STORM 

I don't know what to think of the expected storm Sunday and Monday. 

At this time yesterday morning, the computer models suggested the center of the storm would go by a little to our north, and we'd get mostly rain. 

Last evening, some of the models had it going a smidge to Vermont's south, which would give many of us a substantial late March snowfall. 

This morning a few, but not all, indications had the storm going further to our south, which would mean perhaps northern Vermont would escape the worst of it. 

Don't bet on any of the above scenarios just yet. The models are still in disagreement over the ever-important storm track, so it's still a bit of a mystery how much rain and/or snow any particular location in Vermont gets out of this. 

Whatever happens to this will probably be similar to today in the higher elevations are more apt to get snow while valleys have a better chance of a cold rain. 

As I mentioned yesterday, we're now in a rather cool and unsettled weather pattern and I see no end to it until at least the beginning of April 

Trump Says Cuba Doesn't Have Hurricanes. Cubans Beg To Differ

Damage in Cuba last October from Hurricane Melissa.
Donald Trump's assertion that Cuba gets no hurricanes 
appears to be very untrue

 It seems like Donald Trump loves his conquests, or threatened ones. I've lost track of the nations he says he wants to take over, but one of his latest targets appears to be Cuba.  

Since this isn't so much a geopolitical blog, we'll get into another excuse to pick on our Orange One

As the Miami Herald reports:

"Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that Cuba would be ideal for the U.S. to take over because of pleasant weather and it is not prone to hurricanes."

The cockwomble's exact quote was:

"I think Cuba, in its own way, tourism and everything else, it's a beautiful island great weather. They're not in hurricane zone, which is nice for a change, you know? They won't be asking us for money of hurricanes every week."

The alleged lack of Cuban hurricanes might come as news for those living on the island.  

We have to harken all the way back to October, 2025, yes, a whole five months ago to find an example of Cuba being hit by a hurricane 

That was Hurricane Melissa. After it finished up in Jamaica, where it was tied for the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, Melissa roared on through Cuba.

It wasn't as strong as in Jamaica, but it was strong enough, with part of eastern Cuba seeing sustained was of 115 mph with a gust to 136 mph. Melissa wrecked an electrical grid in eastern Cuba that had already been trashed by previous hurricanes and not yet fully repaired

Melissa was definitely not a one-off

Cuba is historically one of the hardest hit countries in the Western Hemisphere during hurricane season.

Josh Morgerman, a veteran hurricane chaser and one of the world's leading hurricane experts, said on Facebook that he's been getting a LOT of questions about how many hurricanes hit Cuba. He didn't say why everybody's asking, but thanks to the Miami Herald and other media outlet, we now know.

Anyway, Morgerman has the stats:

"Just since 2000 the island nation has had 16 hurricanes, include a rare Category5 (Irma, 2017) and five Cat 4s. In Gustave, 2008, Cuba measured a sustained 1-minute wind of 135 knots (155 mph) gusting to a whopping 184 knots (212 mph) - one of the highest official wind readings ever recorded in a hurricane."

Our Orange Whopper has said he believes  he'll "have the honor of taking Cuba" soon. Oh, great. 

If he does somehow make Cuba part of the United States - good luck with that - Trump is probably right that Cubans "won't be asking for money for hurricanes every week."  

Trump still seems intent on reducing money for FEMA are giving up on it entirely. Which raises the possibility that nobody in the actually now-existing United States would receive disaster relief. 

Let's just make things more dystopian, shall we?