A Summery November Thursday In Vermont. Now The Cool Down Starts. Rain, Too. And Did Someone Say Snow?

As the sun sank toward the horizon yesterday in St. Albans,
Vermont, convective showers were developing across
the lake in New York, taking advantage of oddly
humid air for November. 

Thursday in Vermont had to be one of the most summer-like November days in history. 

It started bright and early with balmy breezes and a giant rainbow over northwest Vermont, that I regret to say I missed.  

Burlington tied a record for the warmest low temperature on this date, with 60 degrees. It also tied the record for the second warmest low for the entire month of November. 

 The warmest November low, of 62 degrees, was during the record-smashing November heat of 2022.

Clouds kept highs in Vermont yesterday in the 60s, which is very balmy, but not quite record-setting. But dew points, a measure of how humid it feels, reached to around 60 degrees. That would have been typical of July, not November. 

With that humidity around, convective downpours and even thunderstorms erupted in northern Vermont last evening. Nothing severe, but still quite unseasonable. 

We're now starting the path back down to November reality. Let's get into the details

TODAY

It'll be one last mild day, but not quite as warm as it's been. Already, temperatures at dawn today were slightly cooler than yesterday. but still balmy by Vermont standards. It was in the 40s north and 50s south. 

We're going to eke out a nice day, especially considering it will be decidedly unpleasant not far to our east and west. 

A flood watch is in effect for southeastern New England due to expected heavy rain today and tonight from a stalled, very wet front.  Western New York is in for a showery day due to a storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere. 

Vermont, meanwhile, will spend the day in a gap between these two weather system.  So, we'll have a little sunshine mixed with clouds, and highs will get into the toasty 60s. Toasty for November, anyway. 

Enjoy it, since such mild days will be rare indeed until next spring. 

Some models bring that coastal rain inland to the Connecticut River Valley later today and tonight,  but that's uncertain.  Radar indicated some rain moving into southern Vermont at mid-morning, so it does seem like parts of eastern Vermont might not be quite as nice as western parts of the state. We shall see this afternoon!

SATURDAY

That western New York upper low will come through New England Saturday. It still looks like the heavier rain might hit southern Vermont, but some models bring a good amount of rain to northern areas. 

For now, it looks like rainfall will amount to a quarter inch or less north of Route 2, gradually increasing to more than a half inch in far southern Vermont. However, some models bring more rain to northern Vermont than what this morning's forecast 

Highs will be in the 50s, which is a little warmer than normal for this time of year. But temperatures will fall well into the 30s. That means rain will probably change to snow in the high elevations. A few areas above 1,500 feet could get a couple inches of slushy snow. 

SUNDAY

Rain, and a little mountaintop snow, will tend to taper off in the morning. The rest of the day will remain cloudy and raw, so, so depressingly typical for November. Highs should be within a few degrees either side of 50. That's pretty normal for this time of year. 

NEXT WEEK

This will be a typical November week in Vermont. That means a fair amount of clouds, chilly temperatures, and occasional risks of rain or snow showers. We'll have a rapid-fire series of disturbances blowing in from the northwest 

Drought Monitor Says Drought, Dryness Worsened In Vermont

Drought and dryness in Vermont worsened in the 
past week. Pretty much all of the Northeast
Kingdom is in drought (orange shading).
Virtually all of the rest of Vermont, aside 
from the extreme northwest corner is
abnormally dry (yellow shading).

To no real surprise, drought and dryness in Vermont worsened over the past week, as the state is still enduring a lack of rain. 

The latest weekly U.S.Drought Monitor, released Thursday morning, indicates drought expanded. 

Last week, 14% of the Northeast Kingdom was drought. This week, the Northeast Kingdom drought expanded to include nearly a third of the state, covering pretty much the entire NEK.

Virtually all of the state is now at least abnormally dry.  Last week 81 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry or in drought, according to the Drought Monitor. This week, 97 percent of the state was abnormally dry or in drought, the Monitor said. 

Only a tiny corner in far northwest Vermont is not officially experiencing oddly dry ground conditions. 

The Drought Monitor uses data that ends each Tuesday.  During the week studied, Vermont had less than a tenth of an inch of new rain. 

The forecast isn't encourage, but at least some rain is coming. Current forecasts give Vermont another quarter to a half inch of rain over the next several days. We'll take every drop of rain, but we could really use a much bigger soaker before winter sets in. 

Another Vermont Autumn, Another Record Hot Spell, Only Light Rain Coming Instead Of Needed Soaker

Some lingering golden leaves on trees in Burlington,
Vermont yesterday amid record high temperatures. 

 A couple weeks ago, I thought this autumn might break from recent tradition and yield no record warm spells in Vermont. 

Yesterday dispelled that notion. 

The updates show some impressively warm weather across the state on Wednesday. Burlington actually had one of the "cooler" high temperatures at 73 degrees, with tied the record for the date. Burlington's low temperature for yesterday was 59 degrees. breaking the record for the warmest low for the date by five degrees.

The record-smashing was even more impressive elsewhere in Vermont. Montpelier reached an impressive 76 degrees, besting the 72 degrees original set in 2022. St. Johnsbury was almost hot - reaching 77 degrees. That beat the old record by four degrees. 

Autumn in Vermont aren't what they used to be, that's for sure. 

Until now, this autumn was a little closer to they way they used to be. Not much in the way of summer weather, a fair number of frosty mornings in October. But yesterday changed that, for now 

We've alway had the occasional warm spell. But lately, it's been a nearly yearly occurrence. 

In 2022, Burlington reached 76 degrees in November 6, the hottest temperature on record for the month. On October 4, 2023. it was 86 degrees in Burlington, the hottest reading on record for the entire month October.

On Halloween, 2024, it was 77 degrees in Burlington, the warmest for so late in the season. Plattsburgh New York got to an incredible 83 degrees that day. Last October, the record hot temperature of 86 degrees was tied in Burlington. Montpelier also reached its record high for the month of 84 degrees.

Now we had another autumn record spell. Not quite as big a recent years, but still. 

FORECAST

It's going to stay balmy for the next couple of days. Not quite record warm, but still. Let's get into it. 

Today

A little rain is coming through this morning, but I'm completely unimpressed by how much. Most of us will see less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Mostly this morning. 

The air is unusually humid for this time of year, but there's not much lift in the atmosphere. Without the lift, you don't get much rain. So the moisture in the air is basically wasted. 

Be glad little bits and sprinkles of more rain is on the way for the next few days. That will keep the risk of forest fires suppressed some until we get a nice soaker. Some day. New England needs it. An illegal brush pile fire in Ferrisburgh, Vermont spread yesterday, It took six fire crews to contain the blaze. 

A much bigger fire is burning through rugged terrain near the northern New Hampshire/western Maine border. That fire has chewed through about 1,000 acres and at last report was only 11 percent contained. 

Back here in Vermont, it will still be very warm, but not quite record breaking. Highs should get into the mid and upper 60s. Breaks in the clouds this afternoon should help boost those temperatures. 

With the warmth and unusual humidity - dew points are in 50s to near 60, we actually have a shot of some thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Especially in far northwestern Vermont. 

Friday

Still warm. Dawn will break with temperatures near 50, which is a near-normal high for this time of year. Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid-60s. We'll be caught between a very wet, nearly stalled weather front along the southeastern New England coast and an upper level low near western New York.

The result for us is almost no chance of rain, and partly sunny skies

Saturday

Back to reality. The upper low in western New York will amble in, creating a lot of showers. This is our best shot at getting some fairly decent rain, but so far I'm not too impressed. So far, it looks like the best chance of good rains is in southern Vermont, but that depends on the track of this thing. 

For now, it's looking like most of us will receive less than a quarter inch of rain, which is much less than we really need. 

It'll be cooler, too, but not ridiculous for November. We'll put highs in the 50s.

Sunday/Next Week

A dip in the jet stream will keep the weather unsettled and cool, but with no big storms. We'll have frequent chances of showers, which will probably mix with snow at times, especially in the mountains. 

It's that time of year, folks!

Record Highs Around Vermont Today

Much of Vermont had record high
temperatures today. 

 As expected, record high temperatures hit in and around Vermont today. 

The following high temperatures I'll list here are preliminary.  Actual temperatures from today might end up slightly different than our list this evening. I'll have a full updated tomorrow morning. 

So here, we go:

Burlington reached at least 73 degrees, tying the record set in 1982.

Montpelier got to at least 75 breaking the record of 72 degrees in 2022.

St. Johnsbury reached at least 75 degrees, breaking a record of 73 in 1990.

Rutland reached at least 75 degrees, tying the record set in 1982.

We have two more rather warm days coming up, at least for November, but the highs won't be quite enough to break more records. 

Again, more details coming tomorrow morning. 

Record Warmth Likely In Vermont Today, But Unfortunately, Not Much Rain Coming

This flower in St. Albans, Vermont somehow 
survived the frosts of October, and should end
up enjoying record warmth today. 

 With energy price so high, we're going to pray for odd warm spells here in Vermont all winter. 

We've got your first such spell now, and it will lead to record high temperatures today. 

It's been mild the past few days. My furnace has been off since Sunday afternoon. 

Even yesterday, with the gloom and light showers over northern Vermont, the house remained comfortable enough as outdoor high temperatures reached the low 60s. 

As expected, rainfall amounts Tuesday were pretty pathetic. Burlington had jus .07 inches. Most of central and southern Vermont received nothing.  

Not all that much rain is coming in the next few days, but at least we will receive some raindrops. More on that in a bit. 

But I'm burying the lede. Let's get into the warm (for now) forecast. It won't last forever, as it will be seasonably chilly by the weekend. 

TODAY

Temperatures at dawn in the Champlain Valley were near 60 degrees this morning, which is close to what  you'd expect on a July morning. It was cooler east of the Green Mountains, with lows in the 40s, but that's still not bad for early November. 

This afternoon's highs won't quite make it to July levels, but you'll surely feel one last hint of summer today. It's a good day to play hooky from work or school. Especially for the many of you who are pleased with the election results from yesterday. 

Under partly sunny skies,  highs across Vermont should hit the low and mid 70s. That's definitely record territory for the date. There's even a slight chance there could be a record or two set for the entire month of November. 

In Burlington, the hottest November on record was 76 degrees on November 6, 2022. The forecast high in Burlington today is 74. If the warmth over-performs, we could tie that record. 

Winds will keep running steady from the south. In central and southern Vermont, where it didn't rain yesterday. the fire danger is pretty high today. 

THURSDAY

Morning lows will be very mild again. Lows will be near 50 in valleys in eastern Vermont to near 60 in the Champlain Valley. Those lows will be warmer than normal highs for this time of year. A weakening cold front will come in with showers during the morning. Those showers will last into at least part of the afternoon.

This won't' count too much. The front will be falling apart, so we'll only receive a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. It'll still be mild, with highs into the 60s, despite the rain. 

There could be a bit of a break in the rain during the afternoon. But more moisture will come in with a little more evening rain.

FRIDAY

Since the front will have fallen apart, we won't yet see any cooler weather. It will feel maybe strangely a little humid for this time of year. Highs should once again get into the 60s. Though it probably will be generally cloudy, we'll have little or no rain. 

SATURDAY

A storm will go by to our east, along the New England coast. That will dump heavy rain in parts of southeast New England. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure system will be spinning over western New York and headed our way.  

The end result will be showers. Nothing heavy, but probably enough to make the day kind of gloomy and not fit for a lot of outdoor activity. It will be cooler, too. But not cold. Highs should reach the 50s, which is still a little warmer than average for this time of year. 

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY

Even though it won't be terribly cold for this time of year, the showers could change to snow in the mountains. That's very normal for this time of year. The valleys could see some lingering rain showers. 

Sunday should be cloudy and seasonably cool, with highs within a few degrees either side of 50. A few light showers could linger. 

NEXT WEEK

Long range forecasts are iffy, as I always say. It looks like it will be seasonably chilly, with risks of showers and mostly mountain snow showers. We shouldn't see any big storms, though. 

Very Mild Vermont November Week'; Forecasters Unfortunately Reduce Expected Rainfall Totals

Camels Hump pokes from behind some other hills in
Richmond, Vermont yesterday. It's stick season, but
it doesn't feel like it this week, as we're enjoying
some unusually mild weather this week. 

 Monday brought Vermont some of the warm weather we wish we had more of during the second half of October. 

Burlington had a nice warm high of 68 degrees Monday after a balmy low of 52, which meant the day was 16 degrees warmer than average. 

That's the largest departure for any date in Burlington since May 19, when an early season heat wave pushed us to 20 degrees above normal. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, Monday was just as warm or warmer than Burlington. Montpelier reached 69 degrees. It was 70 in St. Johnsbury and a toasty 72 in Springfield. 

This morning started warm, too, with low temperatures statewide in the mid 40s to low 50s. This helps set us up for four days of warm November temperatures before it's back to reality.  

So, let's get into it, like we do every morning. 

TODAY

It will actually be a bit cooler today than yesterday, thanks to clouds and some light showers that will should sprinkle the northern parts of the state. 

But it will still be warmer than normal. Where the rain falls most frequently in the far north, highs will be in the upper 50s, which is nearly ten degrees above normal. Southern valleys, which likely woh't receive any rain at all, highs could touch the upper 60s. 

Areas along and north of Route 2 will probably have less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Maybe a touch more near Jay Peak.  No rain is expected in central and southern Vermont, just clouds. 

WEDNESDAY

After another balmy morning, the day will turn out partly to mostly sunny and warm. Very warm. Maybe record warm. This morning's forecast has a predicted high of 73 which would tie the record high for the date. 

The National Weather Service has Montpelier reaching 74 degrees. Their record high tomorrow is 72 degrees. The forecast high in St. Johnsbury is 72, close to the record high of 73. 

Enjoy it, as Wednesday will likely be the warmest day until next spring. 

THURSDAY

A weather front will approach us from the west, a little earlier in the day than first thought. Which means the rain will arrive earlier than first thought. Light rain will move into western Vermont by early to mid morning and spread into the rest of the state by noon, give or take. 

Given how dry it has been, we need a soaker. Unfortunately, this will not be a soaker. Just light rain. Most of us will just receive 0.1 to 0.25 of rain, maybe a little less than in southeastern Vermont.  It won't be enough to ease our dry conditions, but we'll take anything we can get. 

FRIDAY: 

The front will have gone by to our east, but an upper level trough of low pressure will linger overhead.. That means we'll have lots  of clouds and a chance of showers. Cooler air will stay bottled up to our northwest for one more day, so we'll see some mild low 60s for highs despite the clouds. 

SATURDAY

A couple days ago, we hoped a storm would form along the front along the East Coast, then curl northwestward toward New England, drenching Vermont in a soaking rain. 

So much for that idea. The storm will form, but will stay far enough away so that we won't see a soaking rain. Maybe some showers.  It'll be a little cooler but still not bad, with highs in the 50s. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Sunday is several days away, so we can't be too confident about the forecast. But for now, it's looking partly sunny and seasonably cool. There are more chances of rain next week. 

Vermont October Was Sunny - With Oddly Warm Days And Cold Nights; Dry Stretch Continued

October saw many days like this - clear skies with cold 
mornings and mild afternoons. The month was
overall slightly cooler than average, but days were
warmer than average, nights were colder
than average. 

 You probably noticed how often I referenced "big, fat high pressure systems" during October. 

Now, the figures are in and October in Vermont featured warmer than average daytimes and colder than average nights. 

That's unusual, but it makes sense in context of those big, fat high pressure systems. 

Those high pressure systems brought lots of unusually dry, sunny days. That meant the sun heated afternoons to the point they averaged above normal. It also meant nights got cold and frosty. 

Burlington's average low temperature was 38.7 degrees, which is a tad over three degrees below the "new normal." 

The nights were so cold that eight nights got into the 20s, the most since 2002, when there were also eight. The last time there were more than eight such nights in the 20s was way back in 1974, when there were ten such dates. This according to WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consul. 

Add it all up, the average temperature turned out to be 49.2 degrees, which was 1.1 degrees below the "new normal."

The result was a month that on paper ended up averaging near normal. 

Take Burlington, the main reporting station had an average high during October was 59.6 degrees, which was 0.7 degrees above the "new normal" 

"New normal" is the climate-changed average temperature, based on all the temperatures from 1991 to 2020. Those years were warmer than the 20th century average. 

Overall, October comes in somewhere in the middle of the past 136 years of records I have for Burlington.  It was the 74th coolest, (or 62nd warmest) on record. 

The warmest it ever got in Burlington during October was 70 degrees. That's the lowest October high since 2009. The low of 26 was the coldest since 2015. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, it was much the same. The average daytime hight at other weather stations across the state were about two degrees warmer than normal, give or take. Overnight lows were generally two to as much as three degrees colder than average. 

The bottom line: For places across the state, it was a month that was near to about a degree below the "new normal"  we're living under.  

Precipitation

It was a dry month statewide, thanks in large part to those big, fat high pressure systems that kept a lot of rainy storms at bay. 

In Burlington, October rainfall amounted to 2.52 inches, with is 1.31 inches lighter than normal. That left Burlington with the 55th driest October out of the past 127 years of records. 

Other reporting stations across Vermont were equally dry, or even worse. St. Johnsbury was among the "wettest," coming in just about two-thirds of an inch on the dry side. Montpelier's rainfall were a little over an inch below normal. 

Southern Vermont was even worse. Rutland had only 1.33 inches of rain, which was 2.65 inches below normal. Bennington had about 2.2 inches less rain that an October would normally bring. 

Outlook

As we've mentioned already, November is off to a mild start. For what it's worth, NOAA is calling for a classic, strong El Nino pattern across the nation. The northern half of the United States is forecast to be warmer than normal during November. 

Precipitation in November is expected to be above normal across the southern United States and in eh Plains. Here in Vermont, NOAA has our precipitation as a tossup - equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. 

As always, we shall see.