Strengthening Isaias Menacing Gulf Coast; Remnants Still Largely Missing Vermont, Tropical Storm Rachel To Harass SCal

Hurricane Isaias late this afternoon in the central Gulf
of Mexico. High upper winds are pulling clouds from
the storm's center, but its core is maintaining
itself and strengthening.

Hurricane Isaias continued to strengthen this afternoon in the central Gulf of Mexico and by late afternoon, sustained winds had increased to 100 mph.  That makes it a pretty strong Category 2 hurricane. 

It might get stronger yet.  

The hurricane has made its expected turn to the northeast. It will then turn directly north, aiming at the extreme western Florida panhandle. Or maybe in Alabama, at Dauphin Island and Mobile. 

Meteorologists are still struggling with how strong Isaias will get, when it will eventually start to weaken, and how strong it will be when it crosses the coastline. 

Thank goodness for El Nino. That phenomenon has already made potential hurricanes this year mere tropical storms, thanks to strong upper level winds. 

Pretty strong winds area already blowing atop Isaias. But it looks like it will continue to strengthen overnight. Isaias will pass over the warmest water in the Gulf, which should fuel its power despite the high altitude winds trying to tear it apart.

By tomorrow, the National Hurricane Center says the upper level wins will get even stronger. Which means Isaias will probably begin to weaken some as it approaches the coast. Still, as the NHC says. "Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfill, and strong gusty winds are expected well inland after the center crosses the coast."

Evacuation orders are in effect for Dauphin Island in Alabama, and in Okaloosa and Escambia counties in Florida. 

Flood watches are in effect in large parts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. 

Vermont Effects

It still looks like the remnants of Isaias will throw some rain at Vermont toward Sunday. It still looks like it'll be a glancing blow. Computer models are disagreeing how much rain will make it into Vermont, so we'll have to stay tuned. It won't be a super heavy rainfall, though.  

WEST COAST RACHEL

 Tropical Storm Rachel, well southwest of California today, will weaken as it heads toward Baja California or far southern California by Saturday.  Normally a tropical storm as far offshore as Rachel.  was Thursday will have dissipated by the time it reaches the coast. The water off the coast is usually very cool, which kills hurricanes. 

But the water temperature offshore from Baja California and California is much warmer than normal, so Rachel won't weaken as quickly as you'd expect, It could still be a weak tropical storm by the time it nears the extreme southern end of California. 

Southern California, along with most of Arizona, Utah and southern Nevada could see some significant flash flooding from Rachel or its remnants over the weekend. 

The southern California coast is also under threat from rough surf and some minor coastal flooding. 

At least Rachel will end a record heat wave in the Desert Southwest. Los Angeles had three consecutive days over 100 degrees between Saturday and Monday. By next week, highs in L.A will only be in the low 70s.. 

Scattered Showers In Vermont Could Contain Rumbles Of Thunder; Isaias Rain Getting More Iffy

Foliage isn't peak in the Champlain Valley yet, but
it's peak elsewhere in Vermont. Best day to enjoy
the views will be Saturday. 

A little after midnight here in St. Albans, Vermont, I heard a rumble of thunder. 

That proves how dynamic the weather system is that's going through. Unfortunately, the fronts and such with this system are also moisture-starved, so don't count on much rain. Which we need. 

The rest of the day is more of the same. Scattered showers, maybe another rumble of thunder. A couple places might even see a few tiny hailstones. 

But many of us will get no rain at all, or just sprinkles. The best chance of rain is in the northern mountains. It looks like everyone will get less than a tenth of an inch of rain, with maybe a little more than that in the Green Mountains north of Mount Mansfield. 

At least it will be pretty mild, with highs in the low to mid 60s.  

The atmosphere's fast flow from the west-northwest ensures that we'll have lots of changes in the weather, but no extreme changes.  Which means we won't get a lot of rain, either. But at least some showers are in the cards. 

Let's get into what's going on for the next few days, as we always do.

FRIDAY

You know how I just said that things will change pretty fast? Well here we go. Sure, we'll have scattered showers like we did today, mostly during the first half of the day.  But no thunder. And it will feel much colder than today. 

Again, some places, especially south, could get nothing, or sprinkles. The north will be cloudier with up to a tenth of an inch of rain in a couple spots. And, the summits of the northern Green Mountains will probably have a  few snow showers. 

Tis the season. It snowed a little atop Mount Mansfield Monday and Tuesday. They'll have a little more Friday morning. Start digging your skis and snowboards out. That season is coming. Not yet, but we're getting there. 

Anyway the broader valleys will have some sun mixed with the clouds, so we'll manage to get into the 50s for highs, with some 40s in the Northeast Kingdom.

Another frost and freeze is likely Friday night, including in the Champlain Valley.  

SATURDAY

We're in for another perfect peak foliage leaf peeping weekend day, seemingly custom ordered once again by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing.

It'll be sunny and crisp, with highs in the 50s. Maybe near 60 in the lower Connecticut River valley. 

The gorgeous trees and the gorgeous weather might be too much of a good thing in some towns. Stowe and Woodstock, and a few other tourist towns will be absolute zoos.  And if you're looking or a hotel room anywhere in Vermont Saturday night, good luck!

SUNDAY

Another day with big changes. It'll be mostly cloudy, and much warmer. The high pressure system that we believe will give us a gorgeous Saturday will be off the coast, and milder air will be pushing north toward us. 

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will approach us, too. The promise of needed rain will come with it. But remember that west-northwest flow I talked about? It looks like it will shunt the best moisture with Isaias off to our south. 

There's still questions about how far north Isaias's rain will come. Early guesses are there could be some sort of decent rains in southern Vermont, but lighter rain up north. The amount of rain we'll ultimately see is still in doubt. Stay tuned for updates. 

It'll be warm, with highs getting up to near 70 degrees.

MONDAY

Columbus Day will also be generally cloudy and warm, with highs up in the 60s. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

More big changes, as it looks like it will turn much colder, probably colder than tomorrow will be. We're on a downhill race toward winter. More showers will accompany the cold front. There could also be more mountain snow showers as temperatures drop.

A Storm Named Isaias Could Help With Drought For 2nd Time In Six Years

Satellite view this afternoon of Tropical Storm 
Isaias gaining strength in the Gulf of Mexico

 On August 4, 2020, Tropical Storm Isaias went directly over Vermont, dumping heavy rain that alleviated a developing drought that hot summer. 

Another storm named Isaias now has a chance at giving Vermont some beneficial rain. But it's still a big if as to whether we actually get a lot of rain from the storm. 

Tropical Storm Isaias was strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. It's not the same storm as the one six years ago, of course. 

The National Hurricane Center recycles tropical storm and hurricane names every sixth year. They only retire hurricane names if they caused extreme damage. Think Helene, Dorian, Ike and Ian. 

The NHC didn't retire the Isaias name, even though the 2020 version of it caused about $5 billion in damage up and down the East Coast, and in the Bahamas. 

So we have the new Isaias. 

Until now, tropical storms this year have been ripped apart quickly by strong upper level winds this year before they could develop. Thank El Nino for that. 

However, Isaias found a sweet spot in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico without much in the way of those strong upper level winds. The water temperatures there is near record hot, so there's a lot of fuel for this thing.  

By late this afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaias had top winds of 65 mph, up from 40 mph this morning.  It should rapid strengthen to a hurricane - the first one of the season.   

As it heads north, it'll start to weaken as those El Nino upper level winds behind to chew away at Isaias's strength. By Friday evening, the storm should come ashore somewhere around Mobile, Alabama or the far western end of the Florida Panhandle.

After coming ashore, Isaias will rapidly fall apart, as all hurricanes after making landfall. 

Eventually, the remnants of Isaias will probably move through the central Appalachians and onto into the Mid-Atlantic or Northeast Coast. 

The question is, how far north will the Isaias remnants go? Unlike the 2020 version, we know there won't be a huge amount of rain. But if the path of that remnant storm is just right, at least parts of Vermont could get a highly welcome inch or two of rain. 

If  2026 Isaias affects Vermont, it won't have much wind with it.  After all, this week's Isaias will have long since stopped being a tropical storm. 

We have a shot at moderate amounts of rain. Maybe. 

The 2020 Isaias was still a tropical storm on the evening of August 4. At 8 p.m. that day, we had the rare experience of a tropical storm centered in Vermont - precisely five miles north-northwest of Rutland. 

The Isaias of six years ago cut power to 19,000 homes and businesses.  A couple tornado warnings were issued in far southern Vermont, but no twisters are known to have touched down.

Rainfall totals included figures like 3.42 inches in Randolph and 3.01 in Waitsfield. Burlington had 2.5 inches of rain.  Since conditions were so dry before the storm, Vermont suffered no flooding. 

If - and that's a big if - the 2026 Isaias affects Vermont, it won't be as dramatic as the storm six years ago.  

Frost, Freeze In Most Of Vermont This Morning, A Potentially Showery Thursday Then Classic Fall Weather

Most places in Vermont had frost and freezes early
this morning. A bit of a warmup today, then 
showers tomorrow.

Unless you live close to Lake Champlain, your garden is probably dead now. Or at least in really rough shape. 

As expected,  this was the coldest morning so far this autumn.  A freeze hit most of the state except the Champlain Valley. Montpelier and Springfield got to at least 29 degrees. Morrisville was at 27 degrees early today. Rutland hit 31 degrees. 

Also, as expected, south winds developed just before dawn in the Champlain Valley, which rescued some outdoors flowers and vegetables from an icy fate.

The temperature reached 34 degrees at around 4 a.m., as measured at the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. That's cold enough for frost, but you probably didn't see icy glaze on the lawn when you got up this morning. 

The temperature rose with the south winds so that it was up to 38 degrees by 7 a.m. Closer to the lake, in downtown Burlington, the North End,  gardens around Shelburne Bay, Red Rocks in South Burlington, Colchester west of Route 7, St. Albans Bay - places like that - probably escaped any frost. 

REST OF TODAY

Dark clouds overhead made it actually looked like it might rain early this morning where I am in far northern Vermont. But relax, if it does rain this morning, it should only be a brief sprinkle in the far north. Showers on radar are going by to our north, toward Montreal. 

We'll end up with a day with sunshine south, clouds mixed with a little sun north. It'll get kind of windy in the Champlain Valley, breezy elsewhere with highs getting to near 60 degrees. Maybe low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

Overall, a nice enough day.

TOMORROW

It could actually be almost stormy at times, especially near the Canadian border. 

Scattered showers will develop late tonight, mostly north, as a series of weak disturbances come at us. 

By afternoon, a cold front will come at us. We will have some instability in the air, especially in the north. That means we could see some locally, briefly heavy showers, mixed with a little small hail and maybe a rumble of thunder. 

It won't rain all day. Just scattered showers, with a few isolated heavier showers or thundershowers. Thunderstorms are increasingly rare this time of year, so this might be the last time we hear thunder until spring. 

This won't be a glorious dump of needed rain. But by the end of the day, northern areas could receive  tenth to a quarter inch of rain. Maybe a little more than that in the western slopes of the northern Green Mountains. 

Southern Vermont will see little or no rain out of this little cold front. Highs should get into the low 60s, except upper 50s far north. So not bad.  

FRIDAY

We're in for more blustery weather, with cool northwest breezes and partly sunny skies. Maybe closer to mostly cloudy in the north. There could be a few light showers in the northern Green Mountains. Highs will only reach the 50s. More frost will probably arrive Friday night, even in the Champlain Valley. 

WEEKEND

It looks like we're in for another classic fall weekend. It'll be the second peak foliage weekend with great weather. The peak foliage we had in the Northeast Kingdom we had last weekend, will have faded toward stick season.

But elsewhere in the state, the foliage should be spectacular, despite today's wind and tomorrow's gusty showers and weak storms. The state will still be flooded with tourists. If you're headed to Stowe or Woodstock, I wish you godspeed. 

Otherwise, hit the back roads that don't have many leaf peepers and enjoy our scenery. 

COMING UP

Also look for a post later today or tomorrow on how a storm with the weird name of Isaias could alleviate dry conditions in Vermont for the second time in six years. 

 

It's Always Women Who Warn Us, And Men Who Take Credit Or Cover It Up: A Climate Change Discovery Story

Eunice Foote was the first scientist to figure out that 
increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could
lead to global warming. She did this in 1856.
However, a male physicist gets the credit for m
making the same discovery, but in 1859.

Why. oh why, do we ignore women when they see important stuff that we should all know about?

This is going on forever. I have yet example.  

Way back in 1856, a woman named Eunice Newton Foote started running some scientific experiments. As Tess Joose wrote for the American Physical Society back in 2023:

"She set up 30-inch-long cylinders, each with a thermometer inside, and each filled with different gases and gaseous mixtures - moist air, dry air, carbon dioxide, oxygen and hydrogen. 

Foote placed the cylinders in the sun and charted how the gases warmed. The cylinder containing carbon dioxide warmed the most, she noted and stayed at its hight temperature for a long time after she took it out of the sun.'

She had the following to say about carbon dioxide in a paper she wrote: "Atmosphere of that gas would go to our earth a high temperature." In other words, Foote had just discovered climate change.

Foote was an early feminist. In 1841, she'd married a patent lawyer named Elisha Foote, then they moved to Seneca Falls, New York. The couple attended the Seneca Falls convention in 1848 which decried gender inequality and proclaimed alienable rights, accord to abs. 

While she was championing women's rights, Foote also set up a home laboratory. She might have been inspired by Joseph Henry, a family friend who was interested in how weather and climate impacted agriculture. 

Henry read Foote's results, titled "Circumstances Affecting the Heat of the Sun's Rays," at the 10th annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science  in Albany, New York on August 23, 1856.  (It was uncommon for women to read their own work back in the pre-Civil War America). 

He paper was excluded from the official conference proceedings. 

As is usually the case with smart women who discover things first, Foote was pretty much ignored.  Three years after Foote's discoveries. John Tyndall, an Irish physicist, using spiffier equipment than Foote, also determined that carbon dioxide would create a greenhouse effect. Tyndall is now regarded as the father of climate science.

Tyndall was well-educated and highly educated. He had better equipment. He publicized his results. It's 'unclear whether he knew of Foote's work. But, being a man, Tyndall created a much bigger splash than any woman could. 

Tyndall published his results. 

Evan J. Segal wrote in Substack: 

"(Tyndall) credited Joseph Fourier and Claude Pouillet in his opening remarks. He did not mention Eunice. Historians still debate whether he ever knew of her work. What is not in dispute is that Tyndall got the mountains, the institutes, the glaciers and the lunar crater named after him. Eunice got a hundred and fifty years of silence."  

We didn't know about Foote until about 15 years ago or so. As Segal tells us, a retired petroleum geologist found a summary of Foote's work in an 1857 volume of The Annual of Scientific Discovery.

The next year, the geologist published a short article about her in the American Association of Petroleum Geologists' journal Search and Discovery, hoping others would see the article and investigate further. 

They did. Eventually.  Segal continues the chronology: 

In December, 2016, Leila McNeill wrote an article about Foote in Smithsonian Magazine.  Katherine Hayhoe amplified the story. 

NOAA's Annarita Marietta published a letter in Nature on the 200th anniversary of Foote's birth. The New York Times in 2020 added Foote to its Overlooked series, noting that the paper failed to note her death when it happened and failed to notice her work.  

So, Foote, did finally get some recognition, though not enough. And too bad she didn't get the recognition she deserved when she was alive. 

 

A Blustery Monday To Be Followed By A Blustery Day Today, Frost Tonight, A Dry Vermont Foliage Week Ahead

Gusty winds and scattered showers (you can see a 
billowing shower cloud upper right) greeted 
Vermonters Monday. The photo looks pleasant,
but the gusty winds felt awfully chilly. 

By Vermont standards, Monday's air wasn't really cold at all. It was in the 50s with a stiff west winds. But Henry the weather dog ended up shivering at the dog park in the afternoon, and I was shivering just as much. 

It was the coolest day we've had this autumn, and it felt it. 

Tis the season. 

The showers that got going Monday morning and afternoon formed in cold enough air to drop small hail in towns like Montgomery and Fairfax and others. The winds were gusty for sure. 

Burton Island had gusts to 41 mph, Colchester Reef saw 39 mph and 30 to 35 mph at numerous locations. 

Get used to the wind.  Winter is much, much windier than summer. Winter is coming.  So if you don't want the wind to wreck your hairdo, you're in for a very, very several months. 

The wind will keep blowing today, but not as hard as it did yesterday. Here are the details: 

TODAY

Clouds still covered northern Vermont this morning. The south was clear. Sunshine will increase during the day and those northwest winds will continue to gust. Maybe not as much as yesterday, but you'll notice. The air will turn dry, too. The humidity will be low enough for to issue a Chap Stick weather alert.  

Highs today will be in the low and mid 50s.  

If you missed out on freezing temperatures last night, chances are you'll see them tonight. There's a frost advisory for all of the Champlain Valley, including the islands. Though Lake Champlain might protect many places on the islands from the frost. 

Another saving grace that might protect some gardens in the Champlain is the first stirrings of south winds as the cold high pressure system starts to pass to the east. But don't count on it. If you didn't take your sensitive plants in yesterday and they survived last night, take them in tonight. If you don't this might be the last time you see them. 

Outside the Champlain Valley, a frost is almost guaranteed. There's no frost or freeze advisories in Vermont away from Lake Champlain because it's considered past the growing season. 

REST OF THE WEEK

A persistent pattern featuring a west to northwest wind flow will continue all week, keeping us mostly dry. This pattern will block any real moisture from coming our way. 

On the bright side, it's great for Vermont and the foliage season. Tourists will continue to swarm the state. Hopefully future will be plenty of colorful, dying leaves to keep them happy. 

On the negative side, the developing drought in much of Vermont could get worse.  Any rain we receive will be super light and brief. We need a drenching. We won't be getting anything like that anytime soon. 

Tomorrow

A warm front passing through in the morning will produce some clouds and maybe some sprinkles.  Sunshine should break through in the afternoon. It'll be warmer, with highs near 60. 

Thursday

A cold front will approach with another batch of scattered showers. Any rain that does arrive won't amount to much. It'll be mild ahead of the front with highs hopefully in the 60s. 

Friday-Sunday

Cool again, with highs in the 50s to near 60.  Some clouds might linger during parts of Friday but it will generally be sunny both days, At least as it looks  now. We'll also probably have some frosty and foggy early mornings, too.  

Sunday looks like it might be sunny, too. And warmer. Forecasts could change, but this looks like it will be a fantastic leaf peeping week. 

 

"Kelvin Wave" The Latest Meteorological Buzz Word: What To Worry About. Spoiler: Very Little For Most Of Us

A schematic showing how a Kevin waves work. In this
case it's a bulge of warm water and and a temporary
sea level rise of at least six inches rise that can 
exacerbate coastal flooding. 

Polar Vortex. Heat Dome. El Nino. Bomb Cyclone.

Lots of weather buzz words have come up in recent years. The terms have become bogeymen in social media, becoming monsters lurking to kill us all at the right moment. Even if all to these aren't exactly the end of the world. 

Now we have another one. Kelvin waves. 

Before we get into it, I'll be honest. A Kelvin wave along the West Coast won't affect you much at all, unless you live or work right along the ocean front.  

Kelvin waves are huge slow-moving pulses of warm subsurface ocean water that travel along the equator until they smack against a coastline.

They form when trade winds slow down or stop. This Kelvin wave in the Pacific is reinforcing the current record breaking El Nino. It moved westward across the Pacific before smacking into the west coast of South America. 

From there, the Kelvin waves moved both north and south. One batch moved southward along the South American coast. The other went north along the Mexican coast and the on to the U.S. West Coast.

The Kelvin wave has moved as far north as around San Francisco so far.  

Kelvin waves are not something anyone can see. They're just a subtle, huge ridge in the water. 

The Associated Press explains further: 

"Kelvin waves are not like tsunamis, and they don't curl over and crash on the beach. A better image is water sloshing in the bathtub or a swimming pool during an earthquake.

In the ocean, they are bulges of water that lift the sea level as they move along the coast. They're common during El Nino event, but this year's El Nino could intensify the impacts, experts say."

The six inch to foot tall surge is moving north along the California coast and will eventually raise water levels somewhat in Oregon and Washington, too.The Kelvin wave now hitting the West Coast has the potential for worsening coastal flooding, There's no real storm this week along the California coast, but there's been some swells from distant hurricanes. 

Last month, while the Kelvin wave was building, , elevated sea levels and waves from offshore Hurricane Marie caused destructive waves along the southern California coast, especially around Long Beach. 

There's nothing especially damaging going on now. So this particular Kelvin wave isn't likely to cause an enormous amount of damage. 

But the risk isn't over.

The current Kelvin wave is the first of what will probably be several such waves between now and about next February. El Ninos typically produce five or six of these, and the one ongoing now is only the first. 

Even before any Kelvin waves hit, the sea level is already elevated due to climate change. The risk is when new Kelvin waves hit when high astronomical "King Tides." and strong storms hit at the same time. 

That kind of triple attack would cause a ton of damage along the California coast.

King Tides are expected on November 24-26, December 23-25 and January 21-22.  

El Ninos have historically unleashed a series of severe storms onto the California coast.  Imagine if, say, over the Christmas holiday, there is a Kelvin wave, a King Tide and a severe storm all hitting at the same time. 

That's what keeps emergency managers up at night. 

El Nino is looming. There's no guarantee California will succumb to severe storms, high, damaging tides and battering waves.  But it's definitely something to prepare for.