Ice Jams, Flood Risk, Record Heat, Freezing Rain, Rain, Snow, Wind, Storms. Vermont March Weather Rolls On

Another view of an ice jam backing up water along the 
Missisquoi River in Enosburg Tuesday. The ice
jam closed Boston Post Road near Route 105.
Vermont is still  under a flood watch through
tomorrow

Mark Twain once said, "In the spring, I have counted 136 different kinds of weather inside of 24  hours."

He was referring to New England when he said it. I'd guess he might have been in Vermont in March when he came up with that gem. 

A day after we had a hottest for so early in the season warm spell in the Green Mountain State. temperatures this morning were in the low to mid 30s. 

As forecast, there were a couple drops of freezing rain in extreme northwest Vermont.  We weren't expecting much and there was even less freezing rain than the trifle we thought we'd get.

Before we move on, we should gaze back at the record highs, and how we are re-writing weather records in the age of climate change. March records have really shifted. Before 1990, Burlington had never reached 70 degrees earlier in the season than March 20.

Now with yesterday's 73 degrees - the warmest for so early in the season - it's been in the 70s eight times on or before March 20 since 1990. Six of those occasions have been since 2012.  

This isn't just a Vermont thing. Hundreds of record highs were set over the past few days in the central and eastern U.S. New York City reached 80 degrees, the earliest on record it's been that warm there.

Another record heat wave is set to begin next week in the western U.S. 

The switch to hot weather out West means we in Vermont will probably not be seeing more record high temperatures for awhile. 

A southward dip in the jet stream over eastern North America will keep colder weather and storminess in our neck of the woods for next couple of weeks. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

Eventually - later this morning or early this afternoon - the wind should swing back from a southerly direction, and that will pump temperatures back up in  to the 50s for most of us west of the Green Mountains. It'll probably stay in the mid and upper 40s east of the Greens. 

The good news is forecasters have cut back on the amount of rain we should expect between now and tomorrow morning. Don't celebrate too much, since we should still see enough rain, combined with snow melt and the last of the ice jams to keep us under a risk of flooding.  

The Otter Creek in Center Rutland is forecast to go into minor flood stage tomorrow. Other Vermont rivers are expected to get close to flood stage. And remember, these river level forecasts are iffy. Just a little extra rain, or a little extra snowmelt can make a big difference in how high the water gets.\

We should see some scattered showers, maybe even an isolated rumble of thunder here and there today. Much of the time should be dry, especially south and east. The rain should fill in to become more widespread later this afternoon and during the first half of tonight. 

THURSDAY

The sharp cold front will come in from the west mostly before dawn tomorrow, and that will send us back into winter. Temperatures will stay steady near the freezing point, or slowly fall during the day. Gusty winds will make it feel colder. At least the cold will shut off the snow melt and end the threat of flooding.

We could see some snow showers, but accumulations won't be anything to really worry about.

FRIDAY SATURDAY

A relatively small storm should come in from the west. We could get a couple inches of wet snow out of this later Friday into Saturday morning  By March, temperatures can be marginal between rain and snow. We'll want to take a closer look at this when we get closer. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

A larger storm is looming for the end of the weekend and start of next week.  This far ahead, it's hard to tell exactly what that means for us. For now, meteorologists are going with a period of snow and mixed precipitation Sunday, followed by a brief squirt of warm, windy, showery weather Monday, followed cold north winds and some snow Monday night and Tuesday. 

Since that storm is several days away, don't be surprised if the forecast for how it plays out changes big time. 

The cold wave next week looks pretty sharp and intense, even if it does't last all that long.  But we are possibly looking at a couple days with highs in the 20s and lows in the single numbers. Our false spring will definitely be over by then! 

After that cold wave, as usual, the weather forecast gets  really uncertain. But that's OK, we have more than enough on our plate for now. 

  

Tuesday Evening Vermont Weather Update: Shockingly Warm Today, Still Expected Yo-Yo Temperatures Now Through Thursday

Henry the Weather Dog on Tuesday got to do something
he hasn't really been able to do since October: Bask in the
warm sun. You can sort of see him smiling there
he was so happy 

The warmth in Vermont and surrounding areas really over-performed today, didn't it? 

It felt almost like summer. Henry the Weather Dog was able to bask in the warm sun for the first time since October. He was one happy camper!

I think some compressional warming ahead of the cold front that entered northern Vermont this afternoon helped boost the temperatures. The front, as it pushed southward, sort of squeezed the air, i.e. compressing it. When air compresses it tends to warm up. 

Whatever caused it, things were incredibly balmy.  Burlington reached 73 degrees, according to preliminary data. That  shatters the previous record high of 63 set in 2002. It's also the hottest temperature for so early in the season. Those "so early" or "so late" in the season record highs are especially hard to achieve. But Burlington managed it today. 

Other record highs include 63 degrees in Plattsburgh, NY; 71 degrees (wow!) in St. Johnsbury (old record was 64 in 2016);  and 67 in Montpelier, old record 60 in 2016). 

 Rutland and Springfield got up to at least 70 degrees, Bennington was at least 73 degrees. So much for my prediction this morning that there was just a chance a place or two in Vermont might reach 70.  Instead it was pretty widespread. 

The temperatures I listed are not final figures, so they might be updated later.  

COLDER AIR

I mentioned the cold front. Once it arrives it means business. Highgate was one of the first Vermont towns to see the cold front. They got up to 66 degrees at around 1:30 and were down to 51 buy 5 p.m. Burlington dropped ten degrees to 59 in the hour ending at 5 p.m. 

In most of central and northern Vermont, temperatures will bottom out in the 30s, and it'll get below freezing in some spots north of Route 2.  The northern Champlain Valley has the best shot at going below freezing. 

A winter weather advisory is still in effect for Grand Isle County late tonight and tomorrow morning for the risk of light freezing rain.  There could be some icy spots on the roads tomorrow morning there. And perhaps elsewhere in far northern Vermont. 

At least Vermont will miss out on the worst of this ice storm. Far northwest New York, southern Quebec from Ottawa to Montreal to Sherbrooke, northern and Central Maine and even northern Michigan. 

 WEDNESDAY

A large ice jam was still holding firm along the Missisquoi
River in Enosburg as of late this morning. 
Ice jams and regular flooding are a threat through
Thursday with more snow melt and expected rain. 

It does look like our storm will go by to our northwest, which means winds should shift to southerly during the day tomorrow. 

Highs should get into the 50s in western Vermont, maybe even low 60s southwest. The warmer air will have a bit of a harder time getting into eastern Vermont, but it will be above freezing. 

It probably won't rain much during the day except in the northwest. But today's warmth, lingering ice jams, snow melt and that rain will keep the risk of flooding going into Thursday. 

I noticed late this morning a large ice jam was holding pretty firm on the Missisquoi River in Enosburg , and it was causing minor flooding. 

Thursday will turn sharply colder and windy. And an active weather pattern will continue afterward. I'll have much more on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

 

Montpelier, Vermont Has Systems To Prevent Ice Jams

The ice jam that caused the devastating flood in downtown
Montpelier in 1992 The city has now created measures
to prevent this from happening again

Ice jams are cropping up in Vermont and surrounding areas of the North Country, threatening abrupt floods as the ice dams up rivers swollen by melting snow. 

Montpelier, Vermont has a rough history with ice jams. In 1992, an ice jam formed along the Winooski River, which runs through the city. Water backed up and flooded virtually all of downtown Montpelier causing millions of dollars in damage.

This is easily one of the most dangerous ice jam seasons in years. A particularly cold winter allowed ice to form thick, strong sheets over the rivers. 

An abrupt and strong March thaw is rapidly melting the snow. That in turn is swelling the rivers and breaking up the ice.  A slower, more gradual thaw would have weakened the river ice, reducing the chances big chunks would pile up against obstacles to form dams.

But here we are. Montpelier, though, has a bunch of ice jam prevention plans and gizmos set up to avoid a repeat of 1992. Or a repeat of the summer of 2023 for that matter, when another flood trashed downtown Montpelier.

This all started in January, as it has every year since 2013 in Montpelier. Since the beginning of the year, the city has discharged treated wastewater into the Winooski River at three locations. That water is around 42 degrees, so it weakens ice in the river and creates channels where water a freely flow, as WPTZ reports. 

=The city has deployed a long-reach excavator to help move ice downstream if it starts jamming up in Montpelier, said Kurt Motyka, the city's public works director. 

So far, there are no reports of ice jam trouble in or near Montpelier during this warm spell. Other areas as of early this afternoon still have ice jams. I was up in Enosburg late this afternoon and, if anything, the ice jam near Boston Post Road is getting a little worse. 

A lot more ice chunks were coming down from upstream and adding to the jam. The jam started moving while I was there, but then stalled again after moving about 100 yards downstream. These things are unpredictable and things change near ice jams in an instant. 

Which is why Montpelier has invested so much in battling ice jams. 

Flood Watch, Ice, Rain And Temperature Gyrations Galore In Vermont

An ice jam seen here along the Great 
Chazy River in Moores, New York
badly damaging a campground
Vermont continues to be at risk
for ice jams and flooding, too.

It's going to be almost impossible to write this post without being confusing as temperatures and weather conditions are going to be all over the place over the next day or two. 

Almost literally wait a minute and it will change in some places.

The bottom line is there is a flood watch through Thursday afternoon. And our spring weather will fade over the next couple days amid rain, and even freezing rain. Then a little snow to top if off. Then more storms through next Monday. 

I told you it was complicated. 

YESTERDAY

Temperatures did over-perform somewhat Monday, just as I expected. Most forecasters predicted highs Monday to get up to around 60 degrees. Instead, most places got into the 60s. Rutland reached 68 degrees.

It was 65 degrees in Burlington, which made Monday the warmest day since October 20. Ice jams are still out there, the snow is still melting, so the flood watch continues today, tomorrow and into Thursday.   

TODAY

The warmth party will start to end north of Route 2 this afternoon. That weird cold front is north of Montreal and heading steadily south, driven by another frigid high pressure over northern Quebec. If you remember, we went through the same thing last week. 

This time, today's temperatures will zoom upward this morning, and then get cut off at the pass by the low level cold air coming south. It'll be most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley and some areas near the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom. In those areas, temperatures will fall, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into tonight. 

A couple light showers might accompany the cold front in the north. 

In central and southern Vermont the cold front won't be noticeable until tonight, and not to the extent you'll see in the north. Highs will get well into the 60s today. A spot 70 degree reading is entirely out the question.

TONIGHT:

Here's where things get complicated. It looks like it will cool off enough in far northern Vermont where we will probably end up with some freezing rain, especially in the northern Champlain Valley. That's a real cold slap to end our beautiful "false spring"

So far, it doesn't look like much ice will accumulate. But it's tricky, because it's hard to tell how extensive and persistent this thin layer of cold air near the ground will be. That will determine how much ice there is. A winter weather advisory is up for Grand Isle County. That advisory goes from 11 p.m. tonight. It ends at 2 p.m. tomorrow, reflected the uncertainty with the temperatures and the ice. 

Some areas in far northern Vermont might have an icy drive to work tomorrow morning. Which would be a shock if you've been wandering around outdoors in shorts for the past couple of days. 

For now it's wait and see on the potential for ice elsewhere in the north. Stay tuned for updated forecasts later today. 

WEDNESDAY

Expected rainfall now through Thursday. Heaviest rain
is forces in New York. But in Vermont, rain combined
with snow melt will be enough to cause ice jams
and put some rivers into flood stage. 

The thinking for tomorrow is the storm will go by a little to our west, dragging that cold front back as a warm front.  If t
hat happens as forecasters think, then temperatures will rebound into the 50s for most of Vermont. 

This will keep the rain and snow melt going. So far, the flooding in Vermont has been mostly isolated near ice jams. The rain and continued snow melt would expand the flooding to rivers across the state. 

At this point, it doesn't look like a major flood. But as ice jams break up, there could be unpredictable, sudden changes in water levels.  The usual low lying roads will probably get submerged like they often do in the spring. 

Rainfall looks like it will total a half inch to an inch west of the Green Mountains, with the most north. Eastern Vermont should have about a third of an inch south to a half inch north. With the snow melt, that's more than enough to push at least some rivers over their banks.

I'll have more on how extensive the flooding might be in tomorrow morning's report. 

As you can imagine, the weird temperature forecast for the next 24 hours is tricky, so we'll probably see some forecast adjustments. For now this just gives you the best guess on how this will turn out.  Just basically be prepared for temperatures in the low 30s to mid 60s, especially north, now through tomorrow. 

Yes, I know that's not very helpful. But March is almost always a strange weather month.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

The forecast actually gets a little easier by the time we get to Thursday. The storm's final cold front will come through, dropping temperatures and ending the rain as a little snow in some areas. We won't see ,much accumulation 

Another, smaller storm looks likely later Friday and Friday night. That could drop a few inches of snow in some spots, especially the mountains. The snow might be mixed with rain for part of this storm in warmer valleys. 

Then, a larger storm is in the cards toward Sunday and Monday. This one looks like it will come with a fair amount of wind, and worse, changing precipitation types. 

Monday Evening Quick Vermont Update: Flood Watch Issued

Screen grab from a WPTZ report on the big ice
jam in Moretown, Vermont shows a vast jumble of
ice stuck in the river 

 The National Weather Service office in South Burlington decided to pull the trigger this afternoon and issue a flood watch.  

It's in effect for all but the southern two counties of Vermont, mostly because the Albany, New York National Weather Service office covers those areas. 

Northern New York is in the flood watch, too 

It's a long lasting weather alert, in effect now until during the day Thursday. 

For tonight through tomorrow, no rain is expected, but the warm weather will continue to take a toll on river ice. A cool night that got into the low 30s in a lot of places temporarily slowed the melt. Then it got into the 60s most places in Vermont this afternoon, and that's surely breaking up more ice that could lead to more jams.  

There's also plenty of snow left to melt in the mid and high elevations of Vermont 

An ice jam was still in place along the Mad River in Moretown at last report. I bet there's other trouble areas developing this evening after today's warmth. 

Tuesday's highs are tricky because it depends on when a cold front comes through in the north. Temperatures north Route 2 might end up falling through the 50s during the afternoon. Southern Vermont won't be affected by the cold front and might even be warmer than today.

So much cold air could drain into the valleys of northern Vermont, including the northern and possibly central Champlain Valley that there could be some freezing rain early Wednesday. I'll have  more details on this tomorrow, 

Enough rain might fall Wednesday to worsen the risk of flooding across Vermont. Another strong cold front should come through. That'll change the rain to snow before it ends. Also ending is our early hint of spring we're getting now.

Starting Thursday it's back to reality with temperatures staying near or below normal for quite awhile, with frequent chances of snow, maybe mixed with some rain. I'll have more in Tuesday morning's post.

 

Sea Level Rise Is Worse Than Thought, New Research Shows

Sea levels are actually higher than thought because of a 
mismatch in research assumptions. Predictions for the
effects of sea levels due to climate change 
will need to be adjusted. 

Sea level rise, one of the most expensive symptoms of climate change might well be worse than feared, new research shows. 

The problem is that sea levels are already higher than we thought because of mistaken research assumptions. 

According to USA Today:

"The new research, published March 4, in the peer-reviewed British journal Nature, found that more than 90% of the existing sea-level studies use a reference sea level that is lower than the actual sea level along the coast. That means already dire projections about sea level rise might be underestimating the risk." 

Those studies underestimated baseline coastal water heights by an average of about a foot. Researchers studied hundreds of scientific studies and hazard assessments to arrive at this conclusion. The cause, according to the Associated Press, is a mismatch between the way sea and land altitudes are measured. 

Study co-author Philip Minderhoud, a hydrogeology professor at Wageningen University in the Netherlands, said a "methodological blind spot" between the different ways those two things are measured. 

Many studies assume sea levels without waves or currents, when the reality at the water's edge is of oceans constantly roiled bye wind, tides, currents, changing temperatures and things like El Nino, Minderhoud said, as the AP reported. 

 The AP continues:

"Adjusting to a more accurate coastal height baseline means that if seas rise by a little more than 3 feet - as some studies suggest will happen by the end of the century - waters could inundate up to 37%k more land and threaten 77 million to 132 million more people, the study said."

As you can see, this means mitigation plans for future sea level increases are obsolete before they're even needed. 

Some scientists say the study might be exaggerating the problem, but even so, this is just yet another complication as worsening effects of climate change loom. 

Also, more recent sea level studies are taking into account the discrepancy, so chances are future warnings about sea level rise will be more accurate.  

Vermont River Ice Breaking Up Amid Mild Spell, Still Questions About Wednesday

An ice jam on the Mad River in Moretown, Vermont
Sunday. More ice jams are possible on other rivers the
next couple of days amid warm weather. Photo
via Facebook/Patrick Quimby

After the mild temperatures Saturday and continued balmy weather Sunday, at least for the season, the ice on our Vermont rivers is breaking up, sometimes dramatically. 

There were and are some ice jams around the region, and that state of affairs should continue the next few days as the weather stays warm. 

So far, flooding from the ice jams has been pretty minor. 

The worst ones so far is are along the Mad River in Waitsfield and Moretown..  Water behind the jam in Waitsfield rose several feet in minutes. 

The ice also re-routed the Mad River through a parking lot in town. So far, there's been no major damage and the jam is of course being monitored.

At last report, there was another ice jam along the Mad River downstream in Moretown. If the Waitsfield jam breaks abruptly, the added surge of water and ice could cause some flooding in Moretown.

An ice jam broke up along the Missisquoi River around Richford which sent a surge downstream. That flooded and closed the end of Boston Post Road in Enosburg. That spot is a perennial lowland flooding area. 

Also, a mudslide closed part of National Guard Road in South Burlington Saturday, but the road has since reopened.  

Warm weather today and tomorrow will keep thawing the rivers, and more ice jams are a good possibility, which could lead to scattered instances of flooding. Otherwise, the snow is melting rapidly and rivers have risen.  The snow depth near the top of Mount Mansfield went from 81 inches Friday to 67 inches Sunday, so you can see it's disappearing fast. 

Other than the ice jams, no flooding is expected today and tomorrow, though water levels will be up somewhat. We'll have to watch for at least minor flooding   Wednesday, depending on what a storm does then. More on that in a minute. 

MARCH WARMTH

Temperatures got into the mid-50s in most Vermont valleys Sunday, which was a little above forecast. That makes me wonder if today and tomorrow might get a little warmer than forecast, too. Rather than 50s, I think many valleys might reach the low 60s today. 

 There might be a couple record highs here and there in and near Vermont today and/or tomorrow, but most places will fall short of those records. The record high today in Burlington is 70 degrees, which is higher than most records this time of year. It won't get that warm today.  Burlington has a slim shot of reaching tomorrow's record high of 63 degrees.

Even if there are no record highs, the high temperatures over the next two days are normal for late April, so enjoy it while you can.   

Today will be breezy, especially in the Champlain Valley. A warm front passing by to our north was creating showers near and west of Montreal, but the only effect we'll have in Vermont is a few clouds. 

It still looks as if tomorrow might be a couple degrees cooler than today in the north, especially in the northern Champlain Valley, but it will still get into the 50s there. Elsewhere, it looks like more low to even mid 60s, with lighter winds and sunshine. 

Which leads us to what is still our mystery storm for Wednesday

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

The computer models have gotten their act together a little bit more with the projected path of a storm and cold front Wednesday and Thursday. The storm should pass close to or over northwest Vermont

The trouble is there will be a very tight temperature range from one side of the storm to the other. Just to its northwest, it could be cold enough for some freezing rain. Just the storm's southeast, it'll be near 60 degrees.

At this point, it looks like southern Vermont is in for some rain, with only a little snow at the tail end Thursday after the cold front goes through. 

Central and northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley, are still solidly in question mark territory. These areas could still end up experiencing just rain until the very end when there would be a brief changeover to snow before everything ends.

Or, the storm could feature partly or mostly mixed precipitation.  I'm hoping we know more tomorrow. 

The rain, especially if it's still warm, could produce some river flooding Wednesday and Wednesday night.  So whatever happens, there's going to be some hazard to deal with. 

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

Starting Thursday, the warm weather will disappear, and not come back for a long time. There might be a warmish day thrown in here and there over the next two weeks starting Thursday, but most days will be at least seasonably chilly. 

It'll be an active pattern, too. A small storm looks to come through Friday night and Saturday with some snow, maybe mixed with a little rain. Then, a larger storm is then possible next Sunday and Momday. 

 

Signals for unusual warmth, which could result in localized record
highs on Monday and Tuesday, continue. On Monday the warmth looks
pronounced across our area, and then primarily in central and
southern portions of Vermont and the Adirondacks on Tuesday as
slightly cooler air filters in from the north. As far as actual
temperature forecasts, will note there may be too much of a bias
correction with the cold conditions we`ve had over the last couple
of months. Some of the statistical guidance shows more widespread
low to mid 60 high temperatures than the current forecast indicates
for tomorrow; coupled with some of the dynamical models, greatest
confidence in these warmest conditions are in the southern portions
of the Champlain Valley and Upper Valley in Vermont.