"Smoke Bomb" Might Have Saved Vermont/Northern New England From Widespread Severe Weather

My sister in Shrewsbury, Vermont sent
me several photos of storm damage
in that town. Here's one showing a 
large uprooted tree. However, the
storms weren't as widespread as 
forecasted, likely due to the 
thick wildfire smoke in the air

 We wake up this morning to find our big storms we were supposed to get last night didn't happen to the extent everyone was worried about. 

There were some strong storms in the Northeast Kingdom during the evening. And a collection of supercell thunderstorms  swept from northwest New York through south central Vermont early this morning.  Hail up to the size of baseballs hit St. Lawrence County, New York, and a roof was blown off a house there. 

In Vermont early this morning, tree damage was reported in place like Brandon, Pittsford, Orwell and Shoreham. where several large trees were snapped off. In Shrewsbury, numerous fallen trees blocked town roads and the power was out

 Trees blew down between Springfield and Weathersfield, blocking both northbound lanes of Interstate 91.  One southbound lane was also closed. Southern New Hampshire also had some storm damage. Parts of the region had a big lightning show. 

This wasn't the big scary storm outbreak we were expecting.  That's a good thing, Far fewer of us are picking up the pieces than we feared. 

However, that things didn't get as wild as forecast is frustrating for the public.  Judging from social media, people were genuinely scared at yesterday's forecast.  A small hint of fear is good. It gets people to take precautions. But people were worked up. Then, in many cases, nothing happened, which leaves people saying, "What the hell?"

 Of course, people were told that not everyone would be hit by severe storms, it would just be a minority of us. But that gets lost in the hype. 

But still, as noted, this outbreak of severe weather fell well short of forecasts. I'm not blame the meteorologists. This was about as tough of a weather scenario to forecast as you can get.  And I'd suggest the wildfire smoke really threw a wrench into the severe weather forecasting. 

SMOKE

The science of factoring smoke and climate change into day to day forecasts needs work.

The sky was a sick yellow over St. Albans, Vermont
yesterday morning because of wildfire smoke.
The smoke made severe weather forecasting even
more challenging, and probably reduced the
number of severe storms in the region. 

As soon as we got up yesterday, we knew something was awry. There was a lot of smoke out there.  Fires burning in northern Minnesota and Ontario really smogged us in. 

We're now having another smoky summer. Climate change has encouraged more fires due to hotter weather and in many places, drier conditions. 

Since the problem is newish, I don't think the computer models handle smoke forecasts well. Especially since the amounts of smoke the fires belch out changes often and unpredictably. So sometimes we're surprised by the haze and pollution. 

It gets worse. Meteorologists and other scientists don't have a great handle on how wildfire smoke affects thunderstorm development, especially when wildfire behavior changes abruptly.  We saw that yesterday as meteorologists struggled with whether the smoke would squelch storms or not. 

During a live Facebook event last evening, National Weather Service meteorologists in South Burlington said they doubted the smoke would interfere much with storm development. Meanwhile, at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center,  NWS meteorologists issued a statement saying that while there was a very good chance of severe storm development in northern New England, widespread wildfire smoke and clouds were teaming up to inhibit storms from firing up.

This morning, responding to a question from a person on Facebook, the National Weather Service in South Burlington had a great explanation:

"The thick smoke layer was a big wildcard yesterday. Turns out, the smoke reduced instability just enough that the severe storms weren't as widespread as anticipated. Given the recency of the wildfires in southwestern Ontario  - which was the primary source of the smoke - it wasn't incorporated into the model solution very well."

In the words, the fires blew up so quickly that the computer models couldn't easily feed that information into the forecast they were spitting out. So the forecast was off.

Wildfire smoke is bad, as Captain Obvious would tell us, but it might have helped us last night by limiting storms. 

More research is needed to help us understand how wildfire smoke and thunderstorms interact. Also, we need science on how smoke affects temperature forecasts. The thickness of the smoke yesterday was unexpected, and made us cooler that we thought it would be.  The forecast high in Burlington yesterday was 97 degrees. It only made it to 88.

Smoke wasn't the only thing that created fewer storms than feared. The cold front descending from Quebec was a bit of a slowpoke, coming at us later than forecast

LOOKING AHEAD

You can tell by looking out your window that smoke is still a problem here in Vermont and a lot of other places today. An air quality alert is in effect for New York State. I imagine Vermont officials are considering it. But the bulk of the smoke is aloft.   

Some of it is down here where we breathe, so the air isn't great. It's just not as awful as it can get. Air quality was moderate across Vermont this morning, though it was flirting with "unhealthy for sensitive groups."

Northern Vermont will tend to clear out later today, but southern areas are forecast to stay socked in. Smoke will make another run at us tomorrow. 

There is a low chance of showers and weak thunderstorms today, though the Storm Prediction Center has the Northeast Kingdom in a marginal risk for severe storms. This isn't a huge threat at all, but there could be an isolated strong storm today up there. Don't hold your breath on that, though. 

Today will be warm and breezy with highs up in the 80s. 

Tomorrow

A reinforcing cold front should come through tomorrow, with a new batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms. They will be hit and miss, and the thunderstorms should be pretty much garden variety. Rainfall will be generally light, which is too bad as many of us could use a nice soaking

Wildfire smoke should make another run at us. It'll reduce air quality again. It will also make it more difficult to forecast how widespread the expected showers and storms will be. 

Friday

A nice one, as it looks now. Sunny, dry, with highs in the 70s to around 80. That will make it our coldest day since late June. I don't exactly think we'll be shivering in those temperatures, though. We still have to keep an eye on wildfire smoke. It's a little too early to figure out if that will be a factor on Friday. 

Weekend.

Looking unsettles with rain chances both days. This could change, but Sunday looks like the better of the two days. Fingers crossed, the showers might move out of Vermont early in the day Sunday to reveal increasing sunshine. The storm causing the showers will have to move just a bit faster than forecast to accomplish this, however.

Evening Vermont Storm Update: Despite Smoke, Dangerous Storms, Tornadoes Risk Continues Now Through Pre-dawn Hours

Satellite photo this evening. Still a lot of wildfire 
smoke over and near Vermont. That might or might
not interfere with storm develop. Some are 
developing. White splotches over extreme 
northeast Vermont, northern New Hampshire
and part of Maine were strong storms as of 6 p.mm
Other storms firing east of Montreal, A nasty clump
of storms well north of Ottawa in the upper left
of the photo are heading in our general direction
and could be severe for us if they hold together 

 Wildfire smoke is still making our storm forecast more difficult than it otherwise would be, but signs continue to point toward severe weather. 

For much of the day, it looked like western Maine would suffer the worst of this outbreak.  But it hasn't warmed up as much ax forecast in the main Maine risk zone, so to speak. At 4 p.m., Rangeley, Maine was only 73 degrees. 

Temperatures in the 80s would have helped make storms more powerful. Maine might still get nailed, but the lower temperatures raise questions about the severe threat there. 

Here in Vermont, it's also a bit cooler than forecast, but still much warmer than northwestern Maine. As of 5 p.m., it was well into the 80s, with a couple spots close to 90 degrees. The dew point had risen to near 70 across the state. 

Those are super juicy conditions for storms. 

The winds are also veering with height, and are pretty strong higher up.  Here down on the ground, winds are from the southwest. Higher up, the winds are westerly. Go up even further to jet stream level, the winds are northwesterly. 

That's a great set up for severe weather. 

With all these ingredients for storms, we  just need the trigger. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington said that so far, the smoke has tamped down attempts at thunderstorms. But the approaching cold front, and a so-called pre-frontal trough ahead of it, would overcome the smoke and fire up some storms. 

At least that's what the thinking was as of late this afternoon.

At this point, as of nearly 6 p.m., it's still unclear whether this will develop into the nasty severe outbreak that has been forecasted since yesterday, or a total forecast bust/false alarm, or somewhere in between.

There were storms starting to fire in southern and central Quebec. There was a nasty batch of storms well north of Ottawa. We'll see if they hold together, as they were heading in our general direction. 

I'd keep planning on a severe outbreak if I were you. The ingredients are still all there. We're just waiting for the proper triggers. Even if those triggers never fire, what have you lost by bracing yourself for the possibility of nasty storms. 

As of 6 p.m., meteorologists much smarter than me were still insisting the triggers will fire tonight. In a Facebook post, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said confidence in severe weather tonight "continues to increase"

 The NWS also said the wildfire smoke would have little, if any effect on the storms. It's just a matter of how well the atmosphere triggers work tonight. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is more nuanced for this evenings outlook. Wildfire smoke and a general cloudiness might be inhibiting storms. As of 7 p.m., they were still on the fence on whether to issue a severe storm watch. 

Still, if storms can overcome these factors, severe storms will erupt.

We've still got the risk of destructive straight line winds, maybe a a couple of tornadoes. Somewhere in northern New England, a tornado might turn out to be strong. There's also the risk of large hail, local flash floods and continuous lightning. 

Not everybody will see those dire weather conditions. But a few places might. From now until about 3 a.m., you'll need a way to receive storm or tornado warnings, just in case. Don't put your phone on do not disturb. 

It's also important to note it's impossible to tell who will receive a severe storm and who will avoid them in advance. We won't know until just before the storms hit. 

READING THE TEA LEAVES

Like every meteorologist and weather geek around, I've been constantly looking at satellite images and weather radar, and other data to see what's going on. 

Things change fast with these severe weather episodes, but here's a snapshot at what we see shortly before 6 p.m. 

A patch of clouds over northern Vermont late this afternoon was preventing storms from firing up.  It was expected that we wouldn't see much of anything during the afternoon, so this part was expected. 

It had gotten interesting just north of the border, though. Just north of the border was a narrow line of roiling clouds, some of which were developing into thunderstorms. A 

 At 5:19 p.m. today, one storm on that line prompted the first severe thunderstorm warning of the day, covering the extreme northeast tip of Vermont. Other thunderstorms were trying to develop further west along that line of clouds, but they were struggling. 

There's sort of a temperature boundary between the relatively cool air in northwest Maine and the warmer, more humid air in Vermont. So I'm suspecting the Northeast Kingdom will see thunderstorms start fairly early this evening, as thunderstorms like to form along boundaries. 

Speaking of boundaries, there's a pre-frontal trough south of the main cold front. Pre-frontal troughs are common in severe weather outbreak. They are a line of disturbed weather usually a few dozen miles ahead of the actual cold front. 

The pre-frontal trough was encouraging thunderstorms far to the northwest of Montreal. They're embedded in wildfire smoke, so we're unsure if the smoke will interfere with further development or not. 

In any event, the main show happens after 8 a.m. and continues to around 2 or 3 in the morning. If the forecast is correct, waves of storms will move down from Quebec into northeast New York, northern Vermont, northen New Hampshire and northwest Maine. 

Again, if the storms develop, they'll be a mix of supercells and short lines of intense storms Those supercells are the prime suspects for forming a couple tornadoes tonight. Very few people will actually be affected by any tornadoes. But still, oe or two of them could still be strong.

The bigger danger is still straight line winds. The worst storms could have wind gusts of over 75 mph. If one of those comes through where you live, you'll see a lot of damage. 

This isn't to say everybody gets severe weather. Some of the storms will indeed be severe, even intense. Other areas in the higher risks zones will wake up tomorrow morning wondering what all the fuss was about. 

The storms should still weaken as they head toward southern Vermont after midnight. 

WHAT TO DO

The first and most important thing to do is have at least one way to receive severe storm warnings all night. Fully charge your phone, leave it on your nightstand and have it set to blare if a severe storm or tornado warning goes up for your area.

You'll need to act fast if you get a warning, especially if it's  a tornado warning. Have sturdy shoes next to your bed that you can slip on quickly. Also a flash light or better yet  a head lamp so your hands will be free. 

Make sure you're able to scoop up any pets on the way to the basement. 

Some of the severe thunderstorms, if they develop, might have winds equivalent to a tornado so head to the basement even if it's a severe storm warning instead of a tornado warning. If you don't have a basement go into a small interior windowless space like a bathroom or closet. Put as many walls between you and the outside that you can. 

If you're still camping, get out of the woods now if not sooner. Any forested area will be really dangerous if an intense storm or tornado comes along. 

Before the storms arrive, secure outdoor furniture and plants early this evening before the storms arrive. I'll be doing that as soon as I finish this post. 

Above all, don't work yourself up over this. It is a bigger severe threat than we're used to in northern New England. But for most of us, the worst we'll endure ia a noisy night with lightning, loud thunder, gusty winds and torrential rains in may spots. 

An unlucky minority of us in the North Country unfortunately face real danger and likely property damage if the storms develop as meteorologists were anticipating as of 6 p.m. 

Just take your precautions this evening and stay weather aware overnight 

Quick Early Tuesday I'Afternoon New England Storm Update

Satellite view as of 1:30 p.m. there's thick smoke
in New England and far southern Quebec. It's 
visible as that brown stuff.The thunderstorms
are further up in Quebec, and beginning
to affect Maine. We're unsure yet whether 
the smoke will affect the intensity of 
the expected storms tonight. 

Early this afternoon, another round of updates has come through the transom regarding the severe weather forecast for this evening in northern New England. 

The overall philosophy is the same: Meteorologists still expect a mix of supercells and clusters of potentially severe storms crossing the border from Quebec toward evening. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center updated their severe storm outlook early this afternoon, like they usually do. 

The major change is an upgrade to the tornado risk in western Maine. Up there, we have a 10 percent chance of  tornado within 25 miles of a given point. 

It's still at least a five percent of a twister in a given point across northern Vermont and New Hampshire and extreme northeast New York. 

Strong straight line winds are still be far the greatest risk tonight. 

Wildfire smoke is still a wild card. It's blocking the sun, and it's not warming up as much as forecast. This smoke is much thicker than all the computer models expected. Will that mess up the instability necessary to fuel this severe storm outbreak? 

As of early afternoon the thickest smoke had moved east out of Vermont. But thick smoke was still stretched out in a band along either side of the Canadian border. Here in St. Albans as of 1:30, the atmosphere has a sick puke yellow color, and the sun is showing as a dim red dot in the sky. 

There are a few signs the pollution could diminish the storms. As of 1:30 p.m. I'm kind of unimpressed with the storms far to our north in Quebec. However, there is plenty of time for these storms to develop to dangerous levels.

I'm also seeing hints that Maine and northern New Hampshire, and probably the Northeast Kingdom might have the earliest and most intense storms this evening. There looks like there might be several bursts of storms through midnight, with the severe threat lasting well into the night. 

So far, it seems to be full steam ahead with the severe storm expectations.  The atmosphere is pretty primed for storms.  I'll have an update late this afternoon.  Meanwhile, you can read my full morning report with more details by clicking on this link. 

. 

Tuesday Morning Update: Big Severe Storm, Tornado Threat Still Looms In Northern New England, With Wildcards

The areas under the gun for severe weather look
unchanged since yesterday. The latest NOAA
Storm Prediction, issued at 8:30 this morning,
still shows an enhanced, level three out of five
risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes
the evening across northern New England
Orange area is at highest risk

 Dawn broke early this Tuesday morning in a way that did not suggest super hot temperatures and an oddly intense severe storm outbreak was on the way. The sky was overcast with wildfire smoke making yet another appearance early today. 

That suggests a drab but peaceful day would be in the works. "

But nope! The weather forecast that we saw yesterday is basically unchanged from the one we had yesterday.  

A hot day looms, and worse, we're still on track for severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado or two this evening and overnight. Mostly in northern Vermont. 

The clouds are from a large but dying cluster of thunderstorms up in Quebec.  Those clouds will dissipate and move east and out of our hair later this morning. 

One storm in Quebec, a little north Sherbrooke, looked intense as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together, could spew some large hail on the extreme northeast corner of Vermont and on far northern New Hampshire later this morning.  

Other than that, very likely we'll see no storms until the main show this evening. 

The wildfire smoke will linger all day and into the night. We hate wildfire smoke for obvious reasons, damage to our health being one of them. But there's a chance the smoke could do us some favors in terms of how hot it will get today and how severe the storms will get tonight. 

Don't count on that though. It's still going to be hot today, and the risk of intense thunderstorms is still high for at least some of us. 

I'm going to bury the lede and talk about the heat first, then the storms. There's a lot here, so bear with me. 

TODAY"S HEAT

As noted, the smoke is a bit of a wildcard. It's looking pretty thick on satellite images. Enough to block some of the sun's heat  and possibly make it a little cooler than forecast. For instance, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 97 degrees in Burlington today. 

That might well happen, though the smoke could hold temperatures down into the low 90s if it stays thick enough. It'll still be hot and humid, of course. And the smoke in the air will make things worse for people with health problems. The heat and the smoke will team up for a one, two punch for Vermonters whose lungs and cardiovascular systems have already been battered by illness. 

Take it easy all day.

THE STORMS

As a foreshadow to this evening, weather radar picked
up an intense storm just north of Sherbrooke,
Quebec as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together
could dump large hail on the extreme northeast corner
of Vermont and far northern New Hampshire.
Otherwise, the severe weather should hold
off until this evening. 

This is probably what you came here to see updates. The wildfire smoke adds a wildcard to this forecast, too. I'll get into that in a bit. 

The overall scenario is pretty much the same as I described in yesterday's post. Ahead of a cold front, big thunderstorms will erupt in southern Canada and southern Ontario Ontario. Those regions are in for some powerful thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes. One or two of which might be quite strong.  

Environment Canada already has a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for these areas.

Late this afternoon, those will start heading south and begin to cross the border into the United States sometime after 7 p.m.  

The big threat hours across northern Vermont, along with far northern New York, northern New Hampshire and interior Maine are roughly between 8 p.m. and midnight. 

Those areas are under the Storm Prediction Center's enhanced risk for severe storms, a level three out of five alert level. 

Areas just south of that band are at risk of severe storms and tornadoes, too, but the risk isn't quite as high. I would say places south of Route 4 in Vermont are pretty safe from severe weather tonight, though there might still be some pretty strong storms near Rutland or White River Junction toward midnight or a little after. 

The reason for this north to south gradient in risk is timing. The potential intense storms lumbering across the order will do so toward the end of the day. After sunset, conditions start to work against severe thunderstorms. 

They'll maintain their juice for a couple hours after sunset. Then, as they head south later tonight, the storms will begin to lose their steam and weaken. By the time they reach Massachusetts, the storms will pretty much have gone pfft. 

Wildfire Smoke

There is a chance that the thick wildfire smoke might help blunt the development of these storms. The smoke could make the storms weaker than they otherwise would be. But don't count on it. Not at all. The atmospheric dynamics still look easily strong enough to overcome the effects of smoke.

Plus, how smoke affects severe storms is still poorly  understood. If you still see a lot of smoke in the atmosphere this evening, don't relax. We could still see some wild weather. I'm only mentioning the smoke as a slight glimmer of hope against the storms. I'm absolutely not promising anything here. 

The latest update on the situation from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, issued at 8:30 this morning has not backed off at all on their prediction of the severe threat. 

THE RISKS

Everything that you can possibly worry about in storms will be something to think about tonight. Here's what to look out for:

Wind

By far, the greatest risks from tonight storms are intense straight tine winds. As is always the case in severe weather outbreaks, many of us will miss out on the destructive winds. But some of us will see them, of course. 

The more intense storms could easily have gusts over 75 mph. You'll want to me on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows if anything like that comes through. Fine with me if you hide in your basement in that kind of weather. It's the safest place. 

Most of the storms will come at us in clumps or relatively short lines. Lines of storms will team up to produce locally destructive winds. If you see a line on weather radar that's shaped like a backwards "C", looks out. The forward portion of that backwards "C" could well have intense winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to note that supercell thunderstorms may well be in the mix, ,especially in the enhanced risk area. 

Tornadoes

The vast majority of us in the North County will not see a tornado. A few unlucky people could, however, endure a twister. 

NOAA has the enhanced risk of severe weather in a 5 percent zone for tornadoes. That means that if you're standing at any point in the 5 percent areas, there is at least a 5 percent chance, but less than a 10 percent chance that a tornado will hit with 25 miles of where you are. 

 This outbreak poses the risk of a stronger tornado.   An EF-2 tornado has winds of 111to 135 mph, so they are more destructive. EF-3s go rip to 165 mph. 

The greatest risk for intense tornadoes seems to be in Maine, but the risk of those strong twisters still extend across northern New Hampshire, Vermont and New York. And it might not be just the supercells capable of producing a tornado. There might be enough rotation in those lines of storms to produce a twister or two. 

 Vermont, and for that matter northern New York, New Hampshire and interior Maine almost always see tornadoes that area at EF-0 or EF-1 intensity with winds of 110 mph or less.

Stronger tornadoes in Vermont are exceedingly rare. As far as I could find, the last EF-2 in Vermont hit Colchester in 1983.  There was an EF-3 listed for Bennington County back in 1998, but I believe that twister was EF-3 in New York, but weakened to a EF-1 by the time it crossed the border into the Green Mountain State. 

Hail

Some supercells, if they develop, might contain large hail, maybe the size of hen's eggs or even a little bigger. THat's more than enough to trash cars, windows and siding on houses and buildings. 

Flash Floods

The risk of flash floods is pretty low, but definitely not zero. Rainfall with these storms will be intense, so an inch or two could come down within an hour in a few places. That's enough to set up some small steam and creek flooding, washouts along steep roads, that kind of thing. 

Lightning

These storms will probably put on quite a light show. There should be quite a bit of cloud to ground lighting, so it will be dangerous to be outside, even if it's not windy or hailing where you are.

WHAT TO DO

First of all, don't panic. This is definitely a more wild severe storm potential than we're used to in the North Country. But like all severe weather events, a few of us will be very unlucky and get nailed while the rest of us come out pretty much unscathed. 

Even in those enormous Midwest tornado outbreaks that mow down entire neighborhoods and villages, a small minority of the region's populace is victimized. 

But while you're not panicking, there's a few things you should do. If you're camping in the woods, either in a tent or RV, get out by late afternoon. Tents offer no protection from falling trees obviously. RV's also offer basically no protection, and they can be blown over and upside down in strong winds. 

That sort of thing happened in Lancaster, New Hampshire when a supercell hit that area. 

If it turns out your campsite was undamaged from tonight's storm, you can head back there tomorrow morning. 

For those of us who are not camping, secure the lawn and deck furniture, and the potted plants that might tip over. You might also want to park your car away from big trees. 

Power up your devices by evening, because if these storms develop, we'll have quite a few power outages. If you live in a remote, woodsy area, be ready with LED candles and non-perishable food.

A handful of places might be out of electricity for days. And remote roads could be blocked for some time by fallen trees.

A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch will likely be issued later today. If your area is under a watch, continue what you're doing, but have a weather radio or other reliable source near you to receive any upgrades to a warning. 

If you receive a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, immediately head to the basement or an interior windowless room in your house. 

If you are in a vulnerable structure like an RV or mobile home and you eceive a tornado warning, wear a bicycle or motorcycle helmet if you have any. That will protect your head. Huddle under blankets and such in a small space like a bathroom or closet. 

There is no record of anybody ever dying from a tornado in Vermont. Let's keep it that way. 

After the storm, stay inside. It'll be dark out. You won't easily be able to see live power lines, sharp objects and other hazards. In a worse case scenario, if you have to leave your house due to damage, wear sturdy shoes

Monday Evening Storm Update: Late Tuesday Vermont Storm Forecast

NOAA's Storm Prediction  Center has the highest
risk of tornadoes in northern New England. The 
little hash marks mean there's a chance there
could be a strong tornado thrown in. 

I know everyone is watching the storm threat for Tuesday evening and night, and unfortunately the forecast still looks kind of scary. 

The overall threat level and location of the threat is still about the same as we talked about this morning. 

This is easily one of the most intense severe weather forecast I can remember around here. Forecasts don't necessarily come true, but the signs still point toward some truly dangerous weather. 

An enhanced risk of severe storms (level three out of five) is still up for northern New York, northern Vermont and New Hampshire and northwestern Maine. 

Before we get there, we have a few showers are coming through this evening, maybe even a rumble of thunder. No biggie. 

We're still on for a really hot day tomorrow.  Maybe a few showers and clouds could come through in the morning. Maybe. Maybe not. But that shouldn't interfere with any big storms late in the day.

We'll just sweat it out in near record heat through the day. Just temperatures in the 90s with a heat advisory in effect.  Wildfire smoke might help hold temperatures down just a bit with low 90s instead of mid-90s. 

Then we get to the evening. By then, a good chunk of southern Quebec will have been raked with damaging winds, big hail and probably at least one or two tornadoes if not more. 

We're still looking at most of the storms coming in around sunset and into the night. Here are the risks:

WIND

This is the big issue. Some of the storms might be individual supercells, not connected to the any lines of storms, Those supercells can create intense straight line winds. Not to mention tornadoes and/or large hail, which we'll get to in a bit. 

There will also be short lines or clumps of storms, all capable of winds of 60 mph, or 70 mph or even more in a couple spots. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern Vermont, along with northern New Hampshire and interior Maine in a 30 percent chance zone of damaging winds. That means, if you're standing anywhere in this risk region there's at least a 30 percent chance of wind damage within 25 miles of where you ar. 

That seems a bit low, but it's much higher than we usually see when severe thunderstorms are forecast around here. Expect power outages and tree damage, even structural damage to buildings if this forecast comes true. 

TORNADOES

Tornadoes, too, is about as high a risk we can get in northern New England.. True, the risk of tornadoes is definitely lower than the destructive winds. But still, the risk is higher than I've seen in a long time. The Storm Prediction Center even has the possibility of stronger tornadoes, EF-2 or higher. That's exceptionally rare for northern New England.

Individual supercells can spin up tornadoes, of course. But there could be areas of rotation embedded in some lines of storms. 

HAIL

The Storm Prediction Center has also upped the chances of large hail. Supercells could produce hail as big as two inches in diameter. That's as big as hen eggs, which can definitely dent cars, break windows and damage to siding. 

TIMING/LOCATION

Highest chances of storms are between 8 p.m. and a little after midnight. Storms will tend to fade as they approach southern Vermont late at night as they lose their atmospheric support.

CAVEATS

The area under highest risk is pretty broad brush. There's going to be short lines of storms or supercells. It's possible the bulk of the worst storms could head toward Maine. Or New York. Or Vermont. It's impossible to tell just yet.

These storms are going to be somebody's problem for sure. We just don't know whose problem just yet. At this point, just be aware the weather might really get rough and dangerous tomorrow evening and night. If all this misses Vermont, great! If not, we'll have to deal with it.

Between now and tomorrow afternoon, if you know if somebody is camping in the woods, definitely try to get them out of the forests by late tomorrow afternoon. Falling trees in high winds are no joke. 

 

After A Perfect Summer Weekend, Vermont's Weather Week Turns Hot, And For Some Of Us, Scary

An enhanced, level three out of five risk for 
severe storms is up for tomorrow night in the 
orange areas of this map. That's a rare risk level
for this part of the country. Damaging winds
are the biggest risk. But there could be large
hail or even a couple of tornadoes. 

Our perfect weather weekend in Vermont is over, and it's time to face reality. 

The forecast for the first part of this week, especially Tuesday turns very hot. 

And for many people, especially in northern parts of the state, the forecast turns frightening. A significant severe storm outbreak is now expected across northern New York and northern New England Tuesday evening and night. 

That includes Vermont, especially for areas along and north of Route 2.

More on that in a bit

You probably wouldn't call Sunday's weather cool, but at least as measured in Burlington, the low temperature was 57 degrees. was the "coldest" start to the day since June 24. 

But, Sunday afternoon temperatures reached the low to mid 80s, so summer lives on,

Today to an extent, and especially Tuesday, we will briefly experience the other side of summer. The side that's no so pleasant. The side that's uncomfortable, annoying, even dangerous, as noted above Let's get into the details, in chronologicalorder

TODAY

It will try to get hotter today, but a semi-warm front will try to interfere with that process with some clouds and maybe some showers. But the sun will be out much of the time.  The scattered showers will be pretty light, and mostly in northern Vermont late this afternoon and this evening, 

Highs will get well into the 80s. 

TUESDAY 

This time period will bring Vermont some of its most dramatic weather in years. There's still some question about how hot it will get. And how humid.

The forecast, as I noted yesterday, was for hot air to blast in from Montana and North Dakota. 

Large parts of the northern and central Rocky Mountains were absolutely insane yesterday. It was as hot as 116 degrees in Montana.  Several cities set all time record highs including 115 in Miles City, Montana,  111 in Billings, Montana, 109  in both Salt Lake City, Utah and Sheridan, Wyoming.  

It won't get to 116 here in Vermont thank goodness, but we do expect a one-day flash of intense heat. 

Highs should get well into the 90s amid increasing humidity. The forecast high in Burlington tomorrow is 98 degrees.  Which, believe it or not would not be a record high, as it was 100 degrees on that date in 1995.

It is possible, though somewhat unlikely, that a couple places in Vermont could touch 100 degrees tomorrow. 

The humidity Tuesday might be a little higher than previously expected. We noticed dew points in the 70s in parts of North Dakota yesterday. So we can at least expect dew points to be in the oppressive 65 to 70 degree range. 

It'll be pretty breezy tomorrow, too, so it will be a blast furnace kind of day. Needless to say, a heat advisory is up for most of Vermont. 

That all sets us up for what could be a scary Tuesday night

TUESDAY NIGHT

I haven't seen such a threatening severe thunderstorm forecast in years. A sharp cold front will be moving south from Quebec and hitting all that hot, humid air. Conditions are just right to produce what could be a helluva severe storm outbreak in northern areas especially. 

And it will hit on the 31st anniversary of one of the worse derechos in the regions history. Early on July 15, 1995 and intense band of storms caused widespread damage in the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. 

This time, the target is, as noted, northern New England. As it stands now, the biggest risk zone is along and north of a line from Massena, New York, to Burlington and St. Johnsbury, Vermont, Berlin, New Hampshire, and on up through the northwestern half of Maine. 

Those areas are under an enhanced, level three out of five level alert for severe storms Tuesday night an evening.  That's a rare designation for our region. The last time any part of Vermont was under an enhanced risk level was on July 16, 2024. 

Straight line winds is the main, but not only risk with these potential storms. These winds could be much more powerful than your standard issue severe thunderstorm. We're talking  maybe 70 to 80 mph  or more in a few locations. (As in all severe storm outbreaks, the area affected will have spotty areas with lots of damage, with other areas not seeing anything super dramatic.)

Large hail is a definite possibility. If you have a garage, put your car inside it tomorrow night. 

There's also, once again,  a tornado risk with this outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says one or two tornados in the northern New England risk zone could be strong. That's an extremely rare thing to say for this neck of the woods. 

And consider this: The only place in the United States that might get a tornado tomorrow or tomorrow night is northern New England. I guess we're the new tornado alley>

This is also going to be a deceptive severe storm event. Usually, things get active in the mid and late afternoon and continue into the early evening. But at 6 p.m. tomorrow, it will probably be sunny and hot, with few if any signs of impending storms. 

But the storms should start to cross the border from Quebec toward 8 p.m. The risk of severe weather will probably continue until around 2 a.m. Wednesday. 

Nighttime storms are particularly dangerous, because it's harder to see them coming. And many people have shut off their phones for the night, so they can't receive severe storm or tornado warning.s 

This is an especially dangerous situation for campers in the woods. If you know anybody is doing that, tell them to get the hell out of the woods and to a safe place by early evening tomorrow.  Note that the 1995 derecho killed at least five campers in the Adirondacks. 

Another weird thing about this potential severe outbreak is its limited location, at least in the United States. (A broad area of southern Quebec is also under the gun with this system Tuesday afternoon and night).

Given that this is happening at night, the ability to sustain the storms will wane as we get later into the night. Also, the atmospheric wind patterns that will help make these storms so intense will probably start to break down by or shortly after after midnight. l 

So the storms will begin to fall apart as they head toward the southern half of Vermont.  By the time you get south of Route 4, there is only a marginal (one out of five on the risk scale) risk of severe weather. If you are in Bennington or Brattleboro, chances are you won't see any kind of thunderstorm, not even some lame garden variety thing. 

Back north, if this thing goes the way current forecasts suggest, there's going to be some pretty widespread power outages. A lot of trees will come down, some into homes, I imagine. Suddenly, I'm not so thrilled by the large trees in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

Obviously, forecasts can change. Volatile weather setups like this are notorious for being either worse, or much less severe than forecast.  One thing we can hope for is if this whole thing slows down. If the storms wait until later at night than forecast, then they probably won't be as severe. That's a hope, not a forecast. 

I obviously will have a big update tomorrow morning in this here blog thingy. 

Then, when we get to tomorrow night, have a way to receive weather warnings. A NOAA weather radio is a great resource.  I'm also betting local TV meteorologists will cut into regular broadcasting to provide warnings and updates as the storms loom. 

It's been a weird summer. Sunny and nice, but also very stormy. So here we go again. 

 

Perfect Summer Vermont Weekend Continues; Deep Heat, Maybe Severe Storms By Tuesday, Tuesday Night

A beautiful blue sky with puffy clouds over St
Albans, Vermont yesterday. It was part of a near-
perfect weather weekend in the Green Mountain State.

 We're halfway through a perfect Vermont summer weekend, at least in terms of weather. 

On Saturday, the temperature was perfect. The humidity was perfect. The scattered puffy clouds were perfect. A pleasant north breeze was perfect. Wildfire smoke in the atmosphere almost entirely dissipated.  

It's been really warm lately, so by comparison, yesterday was actually the coolest day since June 27, at least as measured in Burlington. That "cool" weather involved a warm high of 82 degrees.

Enjoy it while you can. By Tuesday, things could get rough. More on that in a minute.

Meanwhile, if you somehow missed Saturday's weather, we'll do it again today. Details:

TODAY

We started the day with temperatures in the 50s, with upper 40s in the cooler spots. If you didn't sleep well last night, don't blame the weather. It was a perfect summer sleeping night. There's that word again. Perfect. 

The only real difference today is it will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. So, low to mid 80s. There might be a little more wildfire smoke in the atmosphere today, compared to yesterday. But it will amount to some haze at times.

Go out there and enjoy any outdoor activity you like. The only thing to watch out for is the sun. You'll need sunscreen.

MONDAY

Here's where the weather starts to go downhill. But just a little. Warm air from the west and south will start to flow in.  By afternoon, highs will get into the mid and upper 80s, maybe even flirting with 90 in the hottest valleys. The humidity will begin to creep up, but it will still be pretty reasonable. 

It should be mostly sunny, though a weak disturbance might touch off a few light showers, mostly in northern Vermont. But the chances of that are low. 

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT

This will be the real trouble day. The first problem will be the heat. We're calling it "jailbreak heat," a term I stole from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. It's "jailbreak"  because a piece of hot air will escape from a terribly torrid heat dome over the northern Rockies. That plume of hot air will be racing east across the far northern Plains, southern Canada and down across New England .

We'll start the day warm, and it will get hotter and hotter as the day goes on and the blast furnace air comes in from the west. 

By late afternoon, almost all of Vermont will be at least 90 degrees. The warmest valleys should make it into the mid-90s.  There's a slight chance that the warmest valleys could be in the 95 to 100 degree range, but statewide, 90 to 95 degrees looks like the safest bet. 

It'll turn more humid, too. But not as humid as in that heat wave that struck at the beginning of the month. The hot air won't have a direct connection to the steamy Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. But southwest winds will bring in some moisture. 

STORMS?

The next problem with Tuesday will come late in the day, most likely after dark.  A southward moving cold front making its way into the hot air into Quebec will encounter a lot of atmospheric instability.

It looks like a large chunk of southern Quebec faces a nasty severe storm and tornado outbreak on Tuesday. 

By late in the day, that activity will start to cross the border into northern New England, including areas of Vermont near the Canadian border. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction has areas north of Route 2 in a slight risk of severe storms (level 2 out of 5 risk, with maybe a greater risk of high winds. The  rest of the state in a marginal risk (level one out of five).

That's a preliminary forecast. For now, the storms look like they will cross the border from Quebec into Vermont after dark, when the storms would be losing the atmosphere's strongest instability. They might be starting to weaken by then.  But they would still be powerful. 

Or, the storms could show up earlier, when they would be stronger.

In any event, all this is potentially dangerous for the campers enjoying Vermont's forests. Especially if these storms hit at night, when people are sleeping in tents or flimsy RVs. Falling trees in this scenario are obviously dangerous. 

An example of how dangerous could be a 1995 derecho that swept through New York's Adirondack mountains, killing seven people. 

Tuesday night's weather is something we'll really have to keep an eye on.