Vermont Drought/Dryness Lingers As Rain/Snow Continues. A Thursday Evening Update

Some snow could be seen accumulating along Route 4
in Mendon, Vermont late this afternoon. This is from
a Vermont Agency of Transportation web cam.

Vermont's first experience of the season with winter-ish is going pretty closely to plan. 

Rain came as far north as central Vermont. during the day. 

I didn't mention this during the morning report, but a lot of models had the precipitation sinking south again later this afternoon, so most of the rain and mountain snow was confined to the southern third of Vermont. 

The rain and snow will probably move north again tonight and early tomorrow morning, but once again only make it to central Vermont. Any precipitation should stay south of Route 2 overnight. We're still expecting snow to get close to valley floors overnight, but accumulation down there will be nothing. Or next to nothing. 

The southern Green Mountains could still get two to four inches. It was already snowing at elevations of above 1.500 feet late this afternoon. 

Northern Vermont might have escaped winter weather today, but things in the north might be starting to look a little more interesting over the next couple of days than first thought. 

Snow showers will develop over the northern and central Green Mountains tomorrow. There could be sprinkles or flurries in the valleys beneath chilly northwest winds. 

However, the National Weather Service says Lake Champlain is so warm compared to the air that a lake effect snow band might develop south of Burlington Friday night and Saturday. Also a disturbance in the cold, northwest flow might be enough to create some light accumulating snow in northern Vermont valleys Friday night and Saturday morning.

I'll have more on this in tomorrow morning's post. 

DROUGHT UPDATE

Today's U.S. Drought Monitor is unchanged from last
week, with drought in the Northeast Kingdom 
(orange shading) and abnormally dry in virtually
the rest of Vermont. Today's storm likely won't
be enough to improve things much. 

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released this morning, shows no change in the drought and dry conditions in Vermont compared to last week. 

Much of the Northeast Kingdom, representing nearly a third of the state, remains in moderate drought. Almost the entire rest of the state is abnormally dry. Only a tiny, itty, bitsy corner of far northwest Vermont is in the clear. 

Precipitation from today's storm won't be enough to change the picture.  Perhaps the ground will get a little less dry in southern Vermont from today's persistent rain and wet snow.

Another long period of mostly dry weather is in the forecast. Less than a quarter inch of rain is expected in Vermont over the next seven days, except perhaps a wee bit more than that in far southern Vermont and the highest elevations of the northern Green Mountains.  

The drought is worse to our north and east. Almost all of Maine is in drought, with some areas in severe or even extreme drought, according to U.S. Drought Monitor. 

Storm's Southward Trend Continues: Northern Vermont To Get Almost Nothing, Snow Still Likely South

The latest snow forecast, issued this morning Pretty
much nothing north, with two to five inches 
still possible in the central and southern 
Green Mountains. 

 We started today with wildly different kinds of weather across Vermont.  

In far northern Vermont, the sun was out, with only high, thin clouds covering the sky. 

Not all that far south, toward Middlebury, you ran into light rain. The southern half of Vermont was all rainy, except in the mountains, where it was snowing. 

It's now looking like this set up will continue through today and tonight. 

TODAY

The precipitation will continue to try and work slowly northward, though I question whether any of it will reach the Canadian border. 

If it does, it will only be sprinkles, and maybe some flurries tonight. Clouds will probably thicken up there, and the early morning sun will fade, but if anything falls, it will be super light. 

In central and southern Vermont, it still looks like two to five inches of snow will accumulate by morning ar elevations of above 2,000 feet. Rainfall and snowfall in central Vermont will be light all day into this evening, so it won't be a wild weather day. Just typical November gloom and dampness.  

In central land southern Vermont, rain should change to snow even in most valleys overnight. But below 1,000 feet in elevation,  the most you will see is a slushy coating on the grass. One wild card is far southern Vermont. The National Weather Service says a band of heavier precipitation might briefly rotate for a time into that region.

If that happens this evening, low places like Brattleboro or Bennington could see a surprise couple inches of snow. That's uncertain, but just something to watch. 

There's still wiggle room with this system, so it's still possible the rain and snow could go a little further north than expected, or stay a little further south than expected. 

Overall, this is turning out to be no blockbuster for Vermont. Still, you'll want to be careful on the roads, especially if you're heading to the high elevations. We should see some slick roads in spots up there. 

I'm bummed that this storm isn't producing the precipitation we'd hoped we see. Especially north. It's still quite dry across Vermont, and we need some late season soakings. 

Rain and melted snow will probably only amount to a trace to a tenth of an inch north of Route 2.  Central Vermont might see a quarter inch. Only areas south of Route 4 will get a decent wetting, with a half inch or a little more of rain and melted snow down there. 

This lack of rain and snow is especially bad since we have another long period of unusually nice November weather coming up. Eventually. 

Before we get to that, we have the next two or three days to discuss. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Our storm will be spinning off around the Canadian Maritimes through the weekend, which means clouds, nippy north winds and chilly temperatures. We'll also see snow showers, especially in the northern and central Green Mountains. 

Those areas will see some light accumulation out of that. Valleys will pretty much see just light snow showers, mixing with rain during the day. No biggy, 

Highs during this period will be within a few degrees either side of 40, with sub-freezing nights. All this is a little chilly for mid-November but not really that out of the ordinary. 

NEXT WEEK

Big, fat high pressure looks like it will stall over the eastern United States for much of next week. One computer model I saw has the center of the high pressure centered over or near West Virginia from later Monday until early Friday. 

That's an extraordinarily long time for any weather system to be in one place. Especially this time of year, when weather systems tend to move right along. 

For us in Vermont, this means a warming trend with partly sunny skies. We'll be near the northern edge of this high pressure, leaving us prone to some periods of clouds from time to time as disturbances passing by to the north. 

But still, several days in a row with some sunshine in mid-November is quite a gift. 

Monday will still be chilly as we'll still feel the last effects of that old storm far to our northeast. Then it will turn milder. . We won't have record warmth like we did at the beginning of the month. But daily high in the low to mid 50s sounds like a nice treat for this time of year. 

Like I noted, though, it will be a long dry peered. 

I'll have  post probably later today with this week's update from the U.S. Drought Monitor. 

  

Wednesday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Still Mostly Mountains And South

National Weather Service snow forecast, updated late
this afternoon. Most of us will receive little snow,
but more is expected in the central and 
southern Green Mountains. 

 Our first snowy storm of the season starts tomorrow and as of Wednesday evening, we still have sone questions about how the storm will play out tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington said in their forecast discussion this afternoon:

"Where the models continue to struggle are placement of the surface circulation, extent of northward moisture transport QPF (precipitation) amounts and the amount of cold air in place across the region."

In other words, the the models are struggling with everything, 

The latest models have cut back on the amount of precipitation, especially north. Though it's still not too late for things to flip flop back northward. 

For moar of us, it'll be a cold rainy day. A few places might see some wet snow flakes in the morning, then the rain. After that, snow level will gradually fall until it's at least down to 1,000 feet by evening.

Far northern Vermont might see only sprinkles and flurries, depending on how far north the main precipitation reaches, 

Since precipitation will be heavier south, a winter weather advisory is up for the central and southern Green Mountains. Those areas should receive two to five inches of snow, mostly snow 1,200 feet in elevation 

The storm will be starting to head off to the northeast in the evening. Northwest winds will change rain to snow even in the valleys. But not much snow will accumulate. Still, even if there's a dusting of snow, we might wake up Friday morning with some slick spots in the valleys 

Overall, if current forecasts are accurate. This will be the typical rain/snow November slop we see most years. Enough to screw things up in some areas, especially since we're not used to driving in winter weather quire yet. 

With all this in mind, though, see above.We have plenty of opportunity for surprises with the system.  

Vermont's First Winter Forecast Of The Season; But Huge Questions On How Much

Time for the snowfall forecast maps again! This is the
National Weather Service's initial forecast for snow
accumulations in Vermont through early Friday
afternoon. Definitely expect adjustments, up or 
down, in this forecast as the storm unfolds. 

 It's going to snow in Vermont tomorrow and tomorrow night. 

How much snow depends on elevation and the track of the storm, as always. And, as is usual with Vermont winter weather, expect surprises. 

This certainly won't be the biggest snowstorm ever. But some areas of Vermont could easily see a few to several inches of snow out of this. 

The fact that it's the first one of the season, and people aren't used to it,  could spell trouble for people on the roads. There's even a risk of scattered power outages.

So let's get into it.

TODAY

The proverbial calm before the storm. We actually hd some sunshine in parts of Vermont this morning. It'll tend to get cloudier as we go through the day. It'll also be cooler than recent days, with highs in the 40s. Light north breezes will make it feel even a little cooler. 

THURSDAY

This is where things obviously start to get interesting. The situation could easily change, but here''s how the National Weather Service currently thinks this all will unfold: 

At the moment, the storm is expected to move from Ohio or West Virginia very early tomorrow morning to southern New England late Thursday night. 

That's normally a perfect path for a snowfall in Vermont. But unlike many situations, there's not much cold air lurking to our north. Which means it looks like Thursday bring  a cold, rainy day to the valleys and snow in the mountains. 

At night, the snow level should get  to -  or at least close to  - valley floors.  

By Friday morning, accumulations will be all over the place. Southern and central Vermont mountains could pick up as much as six inches. Mid-elevations maybe two to four inches. Valleys might have just a slushy dusting to two inches of accumulation 

Precipitation looks like it will be heavier in southern and central Vermont. Northern Vermont is expected to have lighter precipitation, so perhaps not much accumulation. 

Wildcards

The heavier precipitation might go further north than expected, or perhaps not as far north as forecast. Heavier precipitation cools the atmosphere. So when temperatures are marginal, ,rain could change to snow when the precipitation comes down harder. 

That could increase snow accumulation if the atmosphere holds more moisture than expected. 

The other wildcard is temperatures Thursday night. If it's a degree or so cooler than forecast, then valleys receive more snow. A degree or two warmer, it'll be mostly rain. 

Bottom Line

Expect highly variable travel conditions across Vermont during this. Some places will just have wet roads. Other roads will become slippery and snow-covered pretty fast. Wet snow is more slippery than fluffy snow under tires, which  means driving could be especially tricky. 

That heavy, wet snow could snap some trees and power lines. 

As I mentioned above. Expect surprises. Snowfall could be heavier or lighter than forecast. 

One piece of good news is expected rain and melted snow are forecast to amount to a half inch to an inch in southern and central Vermont. We need the moisture so this is good. 

North of Route 2, there's a lot of questions about how much precipitation they'll get. Early guesses are a quarter inch. But remember the wildcard - it could be much less or much more. 

As of this morning, there were no winter weather advisories in Vermont. But I'm sure that will be updated later today. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Our storm will be headed slowly through the southeastern Canada, probably near Nova Scotia Saturday and south of Newfoundland by early Sunday. .

That sets up a wet, cold northerly flow of air. So, it'll be snow showers at night, changing to a cold rain showers in the valleys, more snow showers in the mountains. Valleys will have little or no snow additional snow accumulation. The northern Green Mountains could pick up a few more inches of snow. 

Most ski resorts open around Thanksgiving. Killington usually opens early, but it's not open yet. This weather might get the season started. 

NEXT WEEK:

Remember those big fat high pressure systems we kept seeing in October? With all those sunny days?

We might get a break from the November gloom as another big, fat high pressure system next week. This could mean that winter isn't actually starting with tomorrow's snowstorm. With luck, we'll have a spell of partly sunny, mild weather during the middle of next week. 

It'll be a temporary reprieve, winter is inevitable. We're just getting our first taste of it tomorrow and Friday. 

UN: The United States Is To Blame For Lagging Climate Change Fight.

 The world is going to warm up a little more due to climate change than scientists thought last year. 

And it's the fault of the United States, according to the United Nations.  

As the Associated Press reports:

"If all the countries do what they promise to reduce heat-trapping emissions, Earth will most likely still warm another 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) above current temperatures, accord (the) update to climate calculations by the United Nations Environmental Program.

 That's about two-tenths pop a degree Fahrenheit (0.1 degrees Celsius) more than last year's projections by the same science team.

'This is a worse outcome than expected last year, as a result of the formal withdrawal of the United States of America from the Paris Agreement and revised estimates of historical emissions,' the report said."

Additionally, the United States increased carbon emissions last year.  That's different from all the other top 20 major economies reduced their carbon pollution or at least slowed the growth in how much carbon dioxide billowed into the air, as the Associated Press reported. 

"In terms of magnitude, the increase in the United States of America (133 megatons of CO2 equivalent) far exceeded that of all other countries and was driven by increased electricity demand and a rebound of coal power generation, the report said. 

New calculations say that if countries do everything they promise in fighting climate change, the world will be 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit) hotter than pre-industrial times, the AP reported.

 

Vermont November Gloom Continues; Late Week Storm Could Whiten Mostly High Elevations

A dull photo taken this morning in St. Albans, Vermont
representing the dull November in the states.

 All the leaves are brown, and the sky is gray, as that famous Mamas and Papas song tells us. They might have well be singing about Vermont while they were California Dreaming. 

It's always cloudy this time of year, and November has really be showing its true colors, I mean color, the pat couple of grey, overcast days. This state of affairs should more or less continue this week, as it almost always does in November. 

There might be a few sunny breaks to tease us, especially in southeastern Vermont, so you have that to look forward to. 

We still have that late week storm we're watching and the computer models are still arguing about it.  The forecast is messy, and the resulting weather will probably be kind of messy as well. Let's get into it. 

TODAY

Another in a series of weather disturbances is approaching us from the northwest. It'll hit northern Vermont this afternoon and evening while pretty much ignoring the southern end of the state.

This is a no big deal weather system.  Showers will develop this afternoon. Some might even be briefly heavy-ish.  There could even be a couple spots with graupel mixed in. If you remember, graupel is that sleety, snowy pellets, kind of resembling pieces of styrofoam packing peanuts. 

Up north, rainfall amounts will be light again. Most places will get a tenth of an inch of rain or less. 

Southern Vermont, especially the Connecticut River Valley, could see some sun today. 

Today it will be sort of mild for November. Highs should reach 50 north to mid-50s south. 

WEDNESDAY

We'll be between weather systems. So, we'll endure typical November weather. Cloudy, breezy, chilly. Highs should stay in the 40s.

THURSDAY

Here's where things start to get interesting. 

We know a deep dip in the jet stream will form over the eastern United States, which means storminess.  How it develops is still in question, but it's beginning to look messy, with lots of moving parts. 

What follows is the first guess of what will happen. Expect changes in this forecast, as the the atmosphere will get complicated, with prediction models still struggling with the whole thing. 

It seems like moisture from the initial piece of storminess will come in Thursday. Early guesses are light rain in the valleys, snow in the mountains. Not super heavy, but maybe pretty steady.

 One question, as pointed out by WPTZ meteorologists, is that rain could change to snow even in the Champlain Valley Thursday evening. We're not sure yet. It's something to keep an eye on. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us, the American  computer model wants to linger the storminess over or near New England Friday and Saturday. What that means for us is unclear. 

More unsettled weather, for sure. But how much rain? How much snow? If it snows, where? Just the mountains? Or the valleys, too? We'll have to sort this out over the next couple of days. 

November Gloom Has Descended On Vermont; Not Going Away Soon

Forecasters are watching a potential storm late in
the week. This map is one scenario for Thursday
morning showing a storm developing south of us.
At this point, anything could happen. It could stay
to our south, not develop much, or give us
our first bout of wintry weather of the season. 

Sorry, getting a late start today, but let's get into  it. 

Those gorgeous, sunny days that began November are long gone. It's been back to reality since Saturday and it's not going away anytime soon. 

November is the cloudiest month of the year, though December is about tied. So we have a lot of overcast skies to look forward to.

Meanwhile, there's still a TON of questions regarding the potential storm toward Friday. Some models have a total whiff for us, others give us a fair amount of snow and/or rain or something in between. More on that in a bit. 

After the Saturday rain failed to materialize, the next in a series of rapid-fire disturbances gave us a little rain last night. Burlington got a quarter inch. Most other areas got much  less, unfortunately. 

So, here's the forecast 

TODAY

Scattered showers will linger today under cloudy skies. Typical November. The National Weather Service says a few heavier showers might have some graupel, which is sort of sleety, half frozen snowy-ish pellets. 

Highs should be near normal -within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. 

TUESDAY

The next in that spray of disturbances coming from the northwest will give us another gloomy day. Northern areas could receive another tenth to as much as a quarter inch of rain. Central and southern Vermont will only see less than a tenth of an inch of rain. So, nothing substantial. But it's still too dry out there, so we'll take everything we can get

Highs should be in the 40s to around 50. Again, very typical for November.

As temperatures cool, a little snow should fall in the high elevations, but it shouldn't amount to much. 

WEDNESDAY

This will be the "nicest" day of the week. There will be no rain or snow to speak of, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. I suppose there could be some quick breaks of sun in the broader valleys, but it will be far from a blue sky day. 

Highs should again be in the 40s, to maybe 50 in the warmest valleys.  A north breeze will make it feel nippier. 

THURSDAY

It could be the calm before the storm. Or just a calm day before no storm We don't know yet. But in any event, we also don't expect any rain or snow. Highs again should be in the 40s to around 50.

FRIDAY

Here's the day where pretty much anything could happen. We just don't have enough information to tell. The forecasts will become better within a few days once we have better upper air sampling. 

Some models don't really get the storm's act together, and suppress the storm to its south.  So we just get another cloudy November day.

Other models get the storm's act together and flings it up the coast, spreading potentially heavy, wet snow our way, maybe mixed with a little rain. 

Or, we could just get the outer fringes of this thing, and we just get some snow or rain showers. Stay tuned on this one. 

NEXT WEEKEND

Oddly, the forecast for next weekend is a little easier than Friday's forecast. Whatever that storm does, it should be north and east of us by then. It will send cold north wind our way. That means more cloudy skies, chances of valley rain and mountain snow showers, and highs just in the 37 to 47 degree range.