Isaias Rain To Remain Mostly In Southern Vermont, But North Could Get Decent Rain Monday Night/Tuesday

A gorgeous autumn Saturday yesterday as seen from atop
Fairfield Hill in St. Albans, Vermont. 

After a stunningly gorgeous Saturday in Vermont, high clouds have covered the sky. 

Those high clouds started coming in during the day yesterday, but they weren't thick enough to interfere with a bright, crisp October day.  Classic Vermont. Even the air almost smelled like pumpkin spice. So what happens next? Let's get into it: 

TODAY

The high clouds, of course, are coming from the remains of Hurricane Isaias, which, as we know, slammed into the Florida Panhandle Friday evening. 

Despite the clouds, temperatures should reach the low 60s today, which is pretty close to average. 

The clouds will lower and thicken through the day, so that it'll be pretty overcast by this afternoon. Rain will move into southern Vermont this afternoon and slowly works its way north. That rain, however, will be battling dry air to the north. 

All this means that northern areas now look like they'll see practically nothing out of this. Forecasts that were issued this morning don't bring much rain to the north tonight at all. Some spots along the Canadian border might remain completely dry. 

For now, the National Weather Service is going for about three quarters of an inch near the Massachusetts border. Amounts quickly diminish to around a third on an inch around Rutland and White River Junction, then  less than a tenth of an inch in Burlington and St. Johnsbury. 

The rainfall forecast is subject to change. Given the forecast trends, I wouldn't be surprised if Vermont receives even less rain than forecast. 

The rain should end by early morning. 

If you don't get much needed rain tonight, we still have a shot at more rain. Including in the north. 

MONDAY

We'll be between weather systems tomorrow. That means mostly cloudy skies and mild temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s. Most of the day will ve dry. We could see some very early morning showers. And more rain might start to break out in the north late in the day.  

TUESDAY

The next storm comes through Monday night through Tuesday. It's not a huge weather system, but it's getting an assist from former Tropical Storm Rachael. That storm hit far northwest Mexico late yesterday. It's causing coastal destruction in southern California and heavy rain/flooding in the Desert Southwest, and on into the southern Rocky Mountains. 

Some of that moisture is getting quickly pulled into our little storm system for Monday night and Tuesday. 

If the forecast holds northern Vermont, which really needs the rain, could receive a decent half inch to an inch of rain out of this.  Somewhat less rain will fall in the south, but at least they'll get a little. 

WEDNESDAY

Like most autumn storms, this one will have a cold front. But the front won't have a ton of cold air behind it.  We'll have the kind of day that's typical for the day after cold front in Vermont. We'll have lots of clouds, especially north. 

There could be some light showers, with temperatures in the 50s. Northwest winds will make it feel chillier. It doesn't look like it will be nippy enough for snow on the mountain summits. So no taste of a winter wonderland quite yet. 

LATE WEEK

At this point, Thursday looks like a nice fall day, probably much like yesterday did.  Friday and the weekend looks like it might bring us our annual foliage stripper storm - wind and rain that will introduce much of Vermont to stick season.  However, pretty foliage will continue in and near the Champlain Valley and warmer southern valleys even after the storm. 

That said, some extended forecasts give us a shot at some of the coldest mid-October weather we've seen in years. Stay tuned on that! 

 

Hurricane Isaias Trashed Florida Panhandle, Wind, Storm Surge Damage Widespread

Hurricane Isaias ripping off the roof of 
a hotel Saturday evening. 

People in the Florida Panhandle and in Alabama have started picking up the mess left by Hurricane Isaias. 

So far, at least four people have been reported dead in the storm. 

The hurricane came ashore around Destin, Florida at around 8 p.m. with top winds of 105 mph. As of this morning, streets were littered with debris, roofing material, fallen trees and wires. Many of those streets were also flooded.. 

Winds gusted to 118 mph in Jay, Florida, 117 mph at Oriole Beach, Florida and 116 mph in Santa Rosa Sound and 114 mph in Milton, Florida

Those gusts were caused by a sting jet, which occurred when drier air ran into an abrupt western edge of the hurricane. That dry air caused rapidly sinking evaporated cool air to rush downward from atop the storm down onto these communities.  

The storm sure was about five feet, a little short of the six to nine feet forecasters had anticipated. That's good news for sure. Isaias arrived a couple hours before high tide, which helped minimize the surge. 

Still, storm surges caused damage in Destin, Fort Walton Beach and other seaside communities. 

It could have all been even worse. Strong upper level winds - thanks El Nino - ripped apart the core of Isaias just as it neared the shoreline. This prevented the hurricane from intensifying more before reaching Florida and Alabama. 

As of early Saturday nearly 900,000 customers in Florida and Alabama had no electricity. 

Isaias was the first Atlantic hurricane of the season. It has been more than 100 years since the Atlantic got its first hurricane this late in the season. Strong upper level winds caused by El Nino has torn apart and destroyed tropical storms that have tried to form so far this year. 

The remnants of Isaias were moving into the Appalachian Mountains Sunday afternoon. At least one tornado touched down in South Carolina, and the area was under threat for more twisters. 

Gusty winds and flood watches continued in parts of the Southeast, too.

Here in Vermont, rainfall from the remnants of Isaias will range from maybe three quarters of an inch in far southern parts of the state to less than a tenth an inch near the Canadian border. In between, central Vermont should see a quarter to a half inch, give or take. At least that's what forecasts issued Sunday afternoon suggest. 

The rain should come through Sunday night.  

A Gorgeous Vermont Saturday, Isais Clouds Arrive Sunday; Some Rain Sunday Night/Monday

Dark clouds and late afternoon sun lights up trees with
yellow leaves Friday in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Today dawned clear and chilly in Vermont, heralding a classic fall day. As we've long expected, we'll enjoy a gorgeous Vermont landscape, with tourists crawling everywhere. 

Stay off the roads in tourist towns if you don't want to sit in traffic. If you want to leaf peep, take the back roads.

Under the sunshine, temperatures will rise only into the 50s, just a bit cooler than average. Frost will whiten lawns in much of the state by tomorrow morning. 

Some high clouds from former Hurricane Isaias were already making it into southern Vermont this morning. They'll head north, so we'll see some pretty high clouds in the blue sky today. 

Enjoy the day. Here's an update at what's coming up next.

SUNDAY

We'll see increasing cloudiness as the remnants of Hurricane Isaias approach. Isaias roared ashore near Dentin, Florida, with top winds of 105 mph. There's lots of damage in that area, as you'd imagine. 

By the time what was Isaias approaches the Northeast, it will just be a weak, wet storm. Rain will roll into Vermont Sunday night.

Since it still looks like it's going by to our south, we'll have a range of rainfall amounts. For now, continues to look like we'll have a half inch to an inch of rain south, a quarter to a half inch rain central and as little as a few hundredth of an inch near the Canadian border. 

The computer models are still disagreeing on exactly how much rain will fall. Some models give less rain, some a little more. We'll look forward to updates. But whatever happens, it won't be a huge storm. Certainly no flood risk.  Southern Vermont will get some beneficial rain, northern Vermont will get dampened a little, which is better than nothing.

MONDAY 

Many of us will have they day off, and it will be an OK day. A few lingering showers might drop a few raindrops early in the day.  Overall, Monday will stay mostly cloudy and mild, with highs in the 60s. 

NEXT WEEK

The weather pattern continues to favor dry weather, but tropical moisture sometimes benefits us. One cold front boosted by the remnants of a Pacific hurricane gave us some extra rain. Former Hurricane Isaias will give us at least a little rain tomorrow. 

And a new cold front will come in Tuesday. It won't be that impressive, but it will get a little moisture boost from Tropical Storm Rachel, which this weekend is causing tidal surges and inland flooding in southern California. 

Rainfall amounts again will probably only amount to a quarter inch or so, give or take. Not much, but more than we would receive without Rachel. 

Then, the rest of the week will be dry, with somewhat cooler than average weather. 

Isaias About To Slam Far Western Florida Panhandle, Alabama

Hurricane Isaias approaching the far western Florida
panhandle last Friday afternoon. 

 The Gulf Coast, especially around the western Florida panhandle was bracing for Hurricane Isaias this evening. 

As of 5 p.m., the hurricane was starting to weaken, as expected. Strong upper level winds from the southwest are beginning to stretch the hurricane apart. 

Because of this, the most intense part of the storm will be the northern eye wall, just before the center of the storm comes ashore near Pensacola, Florida around 8 pm. 

Top winds were still at 115 mph at 5 p.m. today.  Although Isaias will continue to slowly weaken as it approaches shore in the next few hours. 

But it won't have time to fall apart. The National Hurricane Center says it will be an unusual gusty hurricane when it hits. 

Storm surges could reach nine feet, so they will see a lot of damage along parts of the Gulf Coast

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 mph from the center, so it won't be a  huge area hit by the worst winds. 

Flood watches were in effect through large swaths of the Southeast. Tornadoes are also a good possibility in the Southeast, too. 

As the storm approached, roads last night like Interstate 10 in southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle were gridlocked as people fled the then-strengthening hurricane. Video showed people sitting for hours at a standstill as car crashes blocked I-10 westbound in Baldwin County, Alabama. 

By evening, it was already stormy in the western Florida Panhandle. Live video from Navarre Beach, Florida at 5:45 p.m. showed a burgeoning storm surge and increasing winds. 

Isaias will spread strong winds all the way north through Tennessees and western North Carolina overnight and part of Sunday.

The remnants of Isaias will be in the central Appalachians during the day Sunday. For us in Vermont, it will throw rain our way.  It looks like southern Vermont could get a half inch of rain, give or take, with very little in the far north. 

 

Rain Continues To Mostly Avoid Vermont; Only Light Rain From Isaias

The clouds over St. Albans, Vermont looked dramatic at
times, but despite a few scattered showers, it was a 
rather nice day - partly sunny and mild. The weather
in Vermont will be variable over the next few days, 
but we won't have a huge amount of rain. 

Thursday turned out to be a beautiful day in Vermont, despite a few scattered showers.  We had partly sunny skies above, beautiful fallen leaves underfoot and an orange and yellow landscape in between.

We need the rain, but the nice weather is easy to take. Especially this time of  year.  

For now, we'll dodge raindrops from time to time, but for most of the next week or so, we'll have nice fall weather. We'll  just have to deal with temperatures bouncing up and down, like it so often does in Vermont. 

Here are the details:

TODAY

It'll be cooler than yesterday, but nothing that wild for October. We'll see more convective showers here and there, but they won't amount to much. Many of us will see no rain at all, or at most sprinkles. Isolated spots could have some graupel or pea-size hail.  It's easy to produce that this time of year as it's getting cooler. 

Highs will be in the 50s, so get that fleece out. 

As temperatures fall tonight, a few flurries might blow through the mountain summits. Cold clouds could ice up the stunted trees atop the tallest mountains. It might be the closest we come this year to "snoliage" - white on the mountain tops, pretty colorful trees lower down. 

SATURDAY

If there is any "snoliage," Saturday will be a great day to see it. Sunny and crisp, with highs in the 50s again. The tourists will be swarming Vermont, so if you want to go leaf peeping, find some back roads. There's plenty of 'em. 

SUNDAY

We'll eke out another nice day. We'll have some increasing clouds, and increasing south winds. It'll be a little warmer with highs in the 60s. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

Having trashed the Florida panhandle and southern Alabama Friday night, the remnants of Isaias will arrive in the Northeast. By then, Isaias will be a faint shadow of its former ferocious self.  Since it will pass well south of Vermont. 

It will probably spread some light rain across Vermont Sunday night and early Monday.  Early guesses suggest modest amounts of rain. Early guesses give a mediocre 0.25 to 0.5 inches of rain through most of Vermont; less than a quarter inch of rain north of Route 2 and less than a tenth of an inch near the Canadian border.

NEXT WEEK

Another cold front will spread some more showers across Vermont on Tuesday. Again, it won't be a huge storm. After a couple cool, pleasant days, another round of showers could come through Friday. No extremes are on the horizon.  El Nino is not making the weather scary just yet, at least not here in Vermont. 

Strengthening Isaias Menacing Gulf Coast; Remnants Still Largely Missing Vermont, Tropical Storm Rachel To Harass SCal

Hurricane Isaias late this afternoon in the central Gulf
of Mexico. High upper winds are pulling clouds from
the storm's center, but its core is maintaining
itself and strengthening.

Hurricane Isaias continued to strengthen this afternoon in the central Gulf of Mexico and by late afternoon, sustained winds had increased to 100 mph.  That makes it a pretty strong Category 2 hurricane. 

It might get stronger yet.  

The hurricane has made its expected turn to the northeast. It will then turn directly north, aiming at the extreme western Florida panhandle. Or maybe in Alabama, at Dauphin Island and Mobile. 

Meteorologists are still struggling with how strong Isaias will get, when it will eventually start to weaken, and how strong it will be when it crosses the coastline. 

Thank goodness for El Nino. That phenomenon has already made potential hurricanes this year mere tropical storms, thanks to strong upper level winds. 

Pretty strong winds area already blowing atop Isaias. But it looks like it will continue to strengthen overnight. Isaias will pass over the warmest water in the Gulf, which should fuel its power despite the high altitude winds trying to tear it apart.

By tomorrow, the National Hurricane Center says the upper level wins will get even stronger. Which means Isaias will probably begin to weaken some as it approaches the coast. Still, as the NHC says. "Regardless, Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfill, and strong gusty winds are expected well inland after the center crosses the coast."

Evacuation orders are in effect for Dauphin Island in Alabama, and in Okaloosa and Escambia counties in Florida. 

Flood watches are in effect in large parts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee. 

Vermont Effects

It still looks like the remnants of Isaias will throw some rain at Vermont toward Sunday. It still looks like it'll be a glancing blow. Computer models are disagreeing how much rain will make it into Vermont, so we'll have to stay tuned. It won't be a super heavy rainfall, though.  

WEST COAST RACHEL

 Tropical Storm Rachel, well southwest of California today, will weaken as it heads toward Baja California or far southern California by Saturday.  Normally a tropical storm as far offshore as Rachel.  was Thursday will have dissipated by the time it reaches the coast. The water off the coast is usually very cool, which kills hurricanes. 

But the water temperature offshore from Baja California and California is much warmer than normal, so Rachel won't weaken as quickly as you'd expect, It could still be a weak tropical storm by the time it nears the extreme southern end of California. 

Southern California, along with most of Arizona, Utah and southern Nevada could see some significant flash flooding from Rachel or its remnants over the weekend. 

The southern California coast is also under threat from rough surf and some minor coastal flooding. 

At least Rachel will end a record heat wave in the Desert Southwest. Los Angeles had three consecutive days over 100 degrees between Saturday and Monday. By next week, highs in L.A will only be in the low 70s.. 

Scattered Showers In Vermont Could Contain Rumbles Of Thunder; Isaias Rain Getting More Iffy

Foliage isn't peak in the Champlain Valley yet, but
it's peak elsewhere in Vermont. Best day to enjoy
the views will be Saturday. 

A little after midnight here in St. Albans, Vermont, I heard a rumble of thunder. 

That proves how dynamic the weather system is that's going through. Unfortunately, the fronts and such with this system are also moisture-starved, so don't count on much rain. Which we need. 

The rest of the day is more of the same. Scattered showers, maybe another rumble of thunder. A couple places might even see a few tiny hailstones. 

But many of us will get no rain at all, or just sprinkles. The best chance of rain is in the northern mountains. It looks like everyone will get less than a tenth of an inch of rain, with maybe a little more than that in the Green Mountains north of Mount Mansfield. 

At least it will be pretty mild, with highs in the low to mid 60s.  

The atmosphere's fast flow from the west-northwest ensures that we'll have lots of changes in the weather, but no extreme changes.  Which means we won't get a lot of rain, either. But at least some showers are in the cards. 

Let's get into what's going on for the next few days, as we always do.

FRIDAY

You know how I just said that things will change pretty fast? Well here we go. Sure, we'll have scattered showers like we did today, mostly during the first half of the day.  But no thunder. And it will feel much colder than today. 

Again, some places, especially south, could get nothing, or sprinkles. The north will be cloudier with up to a tenth of an inch of rain in a couple spots. And, the summits of the northern Green Mountains will probably have a  few snow showers. 

Tis the season. It snowed a little atop Mount Mansfield Monday and Tuesday. They'll have a little more Friday morning. Start digging your skis and snowboards out. That season is coming. Not yet, but we're getting there. 

Anyway the broader valleys will have some sun mixed with the clouds, so we'll manage to get into the 50s for highs, with some 40s in the Northeast Kingdom.

Another frost and freeze is likely Friday night, including in the Champlain Valley.  

SATURDAY

We're in for another perfect peak foliage leaf peeping weekend day, seemingly custom ordered once again by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing.

It'll be sunny and crisp, with highs in the 50s. Maybe near 60 in the lower Connecticut River valley. 

The gorgeous trees and the gorgeous weather might be too much of a good thing in some towns. Stowe and Woodstock, and a few other tourist towns will be absolute zoos.  And if you're looking or a hotel room anywhere in Vermont Saturday night, good luck!

SUNDAY

Another day with big changes. It'll be mostly cloudy, and much warmer. The high pressure system that we believe will give us a gorgeous Saturday will be off the coast, and milder air will be pushing north toward us. 

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will approach us, too. The promise of needed rain will come with it. But remember that west-northwest flow I talked about? It looks like it will shunt the best moisture with Isaias off to our south. 

There's still questions about how far north Isaias's rain will come. Early guesses are there could be some sort of decent rains in southern Vermont, but lighter rain up north. The amount of rain we'll ultimately see is still in doubt. Stay tuned for updates. 

It'll be warm, with highs getting up to near 70 degrees.

MONDAY

Columbus Day will also be generally cloudy and warm, with highs up in the 60s. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

More big changes, as it looks like it will turn much colder, probably colder than tomorrow will be. We're on a downhill race toward winter. More showers will accompany the cold front. There could also be more mountain snow showers as temperatures drop.