Quick Early Tuesday I'Afternoon New England Storm Update

Satellite view as of 1:30 p.m. there's thick smoke
in New England and far southern Quebec. It's 
visible as that brown stuff.The thunderstorms
are further up in Quebec, and beginning
to affect Maine. We're unsure yet whether 
the smoke will affect the intensity of 
the expected storms tonight. 

Early this afternoon, another round of updates has come through the transom regarding the severe weather forecast for this evening in northern New England. 

The overall philosophy is the same: Meteorologists still expect a mix of supercells and clusters of potentially severe storms crossing the border from Quebec toward evening. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center updated their severe storm outlook early this afternoon, like they usually do. 

The major change is an upgrade to the tornado risk in western Maine. Up there, we have a 10 percent chance of  tornado within 25 miles of a given point. 

It's still at least a five percent of a twister in a given point across northern Vermont and New Hampshire and extreme northeast New York. 

Strong straight line winds are still be far the greatest risk tonight. 

Wildfire smoke is still a wild card. It's blocking the sun, and it's not warming up as much as forecast. This smoke is much thicker than all the computer models expected. Will that mess up the instability necessary to fuel this severe storm outbreak? 

As of early afternoon the thickest smoke had moved east out of Vermont. But thick smoke was still stretched out in a band along either side of the Canadian border. Here in St. Albans as of 1:30, the atmosphere has a sick puke yellow color, and the sun is showing as a dim red dot in the sky. 

There are a few signs the pollution could diminish the storms. As of 1:30 p.m. I'm kind of unimpressed with the storms far to our north in Quebec. However, there is plenty of time for these storms to develop to dangerous levels.

I'm also seeing hints that Maine and northern New Hampshire, and probably the Northeast Kingdom might have the earliest and most intense storms this evening. There looks like there might be several bursts of storms through midnight, with the severe threat lasting well into the night. 

So far, it seems to be full steam ahead with the severe storm expectations.  The atmosphere is pretty primed for storms.  I'll have an update late this afternoon.  Meanwhile, you can read my full morning report with more details by clicking on this link. 

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Tuesday Morning Update: Big Severe Storm, Tornado Threat Still Looms In Northern New England, With Wildcards

The areas under the gun for severe weather look
unchanged since yesterday. The latest NOAA
Storm Prediction, issued at 8:30 this morning,
still shows an enhanced, level three out of five
risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes
the evening across northern New England
Orange area is at highest risk

 Dawn broke early this Tuesday morning in a way that did not suggest super hot temperatures and an oddly intense severe storm outbreak was on the way. The sky was overcast with wildfire smoke making yet another appearance early today. 

That suggests a drab but peaceful day would be in the works. "

But nope! The weather forecast that we saw yesterday is basically unchanged from the one we had yesterday.  

A hot day looms, and worse, we're still on track for severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado or two this evening and overnight. Mostly in northern Vermont. 

The clouds are from a large but dying cluster of thunderstorms up in Quebec.  Those clouds will dissipate and move east and out of our hair later this morning. 

One storm in Quebec, a little north Sherbrooke, looked intense as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together, could spew some large hail on the extreme northeast corner of Vermont and on far northern New Hampshire later this morning.  

Other than that, very likely we'll see no storms until the main show this evening. 

The wildfire smoke will linger all day and into the night. We hate wildfire smoke for obvious reasons, damage to our health being one of them. But there's a chance the smoke could do us some favors in terms of how hot it will get today and how severe the storms will get tonight. 

Don't count on that though. It's still going to be hot today, and the risk of intense thunderstorms is still high for at least some of us. 

I'm going to bury the lede and talk about the heat first, then the storms. There's a lot here, so bear with me. 

TODAY"S HEAT

As noted, the smoke is a bit of a wildcard. It's looking pretty thick on satellite images. Enough to block some of the sun's heat  and possibly make it a little cooler than forecast. For instance, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 97 degrees in Burlington today. 

That might well happen, though the smoke could hold temperatures down into the low 90s if it stays thick enough. It'll still be hot and humid, of course. And the smoke in the air will make things worse for people with health problems. The heat and the smoke will team up for a one, two punch for Vermonters whose lungs and cardiovascular systems have already been battered by illness. 

Take it easy all day.

THE STORMS

As a foreshadow to this evening, weather radar picked
up an intense storm just north of Sherbrooke,
Quebec as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together
could dump large hail on the extreme northeast corner
of Vermont and far northern New Hampshire.
Otherwise, the severe weather should hold
off until this evening. 

This is probably what you came here to see updates. The wildfire smoke adds a wildcard to this forecast, too. I'll get into that in a bit. 

The overall scenario is pretty much the same as I described in yesterday's post. Ahead of a cold front, big thunderstorms will erupt in southern Canada and southern Ontario Ontario. Those regions are in for some powerful thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes. One or two of which might be quite strong.  

Environment Canada already has a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for these areas.

Late this afternoon, those will start heading south and begin to cross the border into the United States sometime after 7 p.m.  

The big threat hours across northern Vermont, along with far northern New York, northern New Hampshire and interior Maine are roughly between 8 p.m. and midnight. 

Those areas are under the Storm Prediction Center's enhanced risk for severe storms, a level three out of five alert level. 

Areas just south of that band are at risk of severe storms and tornadoes, too, but the risk isn't quite as high. I would say places south of Route 4 in Vermont are pretty safe from severe weather tonight, though there might still be some pretty strong storms near Rutland or White River Junction toward midnight or a little after. 

The reason for this north to south gradient in risk is timing. The potential intense storms lumbering across the order will do so toward the end of the day. After sunset, conditions start to work against severe thunderstorms. 

They'll maintain their juice for a couple hours after sunset. Then, as they head south later tonight, the storms will begin to lose their steam and weaken. By the time they reach Massachusetts, the storms will pretty much have gone pfft. 

Wildfire Smoke

There is a chance that the thick wildfire smoke might help blunt the development of these storms. The smoke could make the storms weaker than they otherwise would be. But don't count on it. Not at all. The atmospheric dynamics still look easily strong enough to overcome the effects of smoke.

Plus, how smoke affects severe storms is still poorly  understood. If you still see a lot of smoke in the atmosphere this evening, don't relax. We could still see some wild weather. I'm only mentioning the smoke as a slight glimmer of hope against the storms. I'm absolutely not promising anything here. 

The latest update on the situation from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, issued at 8:30 this morning has not backed off at all on their prediction of the severe threat. 

THE RISKS

Everything that you can possibly worry about in storms will be something to think about tonight. Here's what to look out for:

Wind

By far, the greatest risks from tonight storms are intense straight tine winds. As is always the case in severe weather outbreaks, many of us will miss out on the destructive winds. But some of us will see them, of course. 

The more intense storms could easily have gusts over 75 mph. You'll want to me on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows if anything like that comes through. Fine with me if you hide in your basement in that kind of weather. It's the safest place. 

Most of the storms will come at us in clumps or relatively short lines. Lines of storms will team up to produce locally destructive winds. If you see a line on weather radar that's shaped like a backwards "C", looks out. The forward portion of that backwards "C" could well have intense winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to note that supercell thunderstorms may well be in the mix, ,especially in the enhanced risk area. 

Tornadoes

The vast majority of us in the North County will not see a tornado. A few unlucky people could, however, endure a twister. 

NOAA has the enhanced risk of severe weather in a 5 percent zone for tornadoes. That means that if you're standing at any point in the 5 percent areas, there is at least a 5 percent chance, but less than a 10 percent chance that a tornado will hit with 25 miles of where you are. 

 This outbreak poses the risk of a stronger tornado.   An EF-2 tornado has winds of 111to 135 mph, so they are more destructive. EF-3s go rip to 165 mph. 

The greatest risk for intense tornadoes seems to be in Maine, but the risk of those strong twisters still extend across northern New Hampshire, Vermont and New York. And it might not be just the supercells capable of producing a tornado. There might be enough rotation in those lines of storms to produce a twister or two. 

 Vermont, and for that matter northern New York, New Hampshire and interior Maine almost always see tornadoes that area at EF-0 or EF-1 intensity with winds of 110 mph or less.

Stronger tornadoes in Vermont are exceedingly rare. As far as I could find, the last EF-2 in Vermont hit Colchester in 1983.  There was an EF-3 listed for Bennington County back in 1998, but I believe that twister was EF-3 in New York, but weakened to a EF-1 by the time it crossed the border into the Green Mountain State. 

Hail

Some supercells, if they develop, might contain large hail, maybe the size of hen's eggs or even a little bigger. THat's more than enough to trash cars, windows and siding on houses and buildings. 

Flash Floods

The risk of flash floods is pretty low, but definitely not zero. Rainfall with these storms will be intense, so an inch or two could come down within an hour in a few places. That's enough to set up some small steam and creek flooding, washouts along steep roads, that kind of thing. 

Lightning

These storms will probably put on quite a light show. There should be quite a bit of cloud to ground lighting, so it will be dangerous to be outside, even if it's not windy or hailing where you are.

WHAT TO DO

First of all, don't panic. This is definitely a more wild severe storm potential than we're used to in the North Country. But like all severe weather events, a few of us will be very unlucky and get nailed while the rest of us come out pretty much unscathed. 

Even in those enormous Midwest tornado outbreaks that mow down entire neighborhoods and villages, a small minority of the region's populace is victimized. 

But while you're not panicking, there's a few things you should do. If you're camping in the woods, either in a tent or RV, get out by late afternoon. Tents offer no protection from falling trees obviously. RV's also offer basically no protection, and they can be blown over and upside down in strong winds. 

That sort of thing happened in Lancaster, New Hampshire when a supercell hit that area. 

If it turns out your campsite was undamaged from tonight's storm, you can head back there tomorrow morning. 

For those of us who are not camping, secure the lawn and deck furniture, and the potted plants that might tip over. You might also want to park your car away from big trees. 

Power up your devices by evening, because if these storms develop, we'll have quite a few power outages. If you live in a remote, woodsy area, be ready with LED candles and non-perishable food.

A handful of places might be out of electricity for days. And remote roads could be blocked for some time by fallen trees.

A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch will likely be issued later today. If your area is under a watch, continue what you're doing, but have a weather radio or other reliable source near you to receive any upgrades to a warning. 

If you receive a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, immediately head to the basement or an interior windowless room in your house. 

If you are in a vulnerable structure like an RV or mobile home and you eceive a tornado warning, wear a bicycle or motorcycle helmet if you have any. That will protect your head. Huddle under blankets and such in a small space like a bathroom or closet. 

There is no record of anybody ever dying from a tornado in Vermont. Let's keep it that way. 

After the storm, stay inside. It'll be dark out. You won't easily be able to see live power lines, sharp objects and other hazards. In a worse case scenario, if you have to leave your house due to damage, wear sturdy shoes

Monday Evening Storm Update: Late Tuesday Vermont Storm Forecast

NOAA's Storm Prediction  Center has the highest
risk of tornadoes in northern New England. The 
little hash marks mean there's a chance there
could be a strong tornado thrown in. 

I know everyone is watching the storm threat for Tuesday evening and night, and unfortunately the forecast still looks kind of scary. 

The overall threat level and location of the threat is still about the same as we talked about this morning. 

This is easily one of the most intense severe weather forecast I can remember around here. Forecasts don't necessarily come true, but the signs still point toward some truly dangerous weather. 

An enhanced risk of severe storms (level three out of five) is still up for northern New York, northern Vermont and New Hampshire and northwestern Maine. 

Before we get there, we have a few showers are coming through this evening, maybe even a rumble of thunder. No biggie. 

We're still on for a really hot day tomorrow.  Maybe a few showers and clouds could come through in the morning. Maybe. Maybe not. But that shouldn't interfere with any big storms late in the day.

We'll just sweat it out in near record heat through the day. Just temperatures in the 90s with a heat advisory in effect.  Wildfire smoke might help hold temperatures down just a bit with low 90s instead of mid-90s. 

Then we get to the evening. By then, a good chunk of southern Quebec will have been raked with damaging winds, big hail and probably at least one or two tornadoes if not more. 

We're still looking at most of the storms coming in around sunset and into the night. Here are the risks:

WIND

This is the big issue. Some of the storms might be individual supercells, not connected to the any lines of storms, Those supercells can create intense straight line winds. Not to mention tornadoes and/or large hail, which we'll get to in a bit. 

There will also be short lines or clumps of storms, all capable of winds of 60 mph, or 70 mph or even more in a couple spots. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern Vermont, along with northern New Hampshire and interior Maine in a 30 percent chance zone of damaging winds. That means, if you're standing anywhere in this risk region there's at least a 30 percent chance of wind damage within 25 miles of where you ar. 

That seems a bit low, but it's much higher than we usually see when severe thunderstorms are forecast around here. Expect power outages and tree damage, even structural damage to buildings if this forecast comes true. 

TORNADOES

Tornadoes, too, is about as high a risk we can get in northern New England.. True, the risk of tornadoes is definitely lower than the destructive winds. But still, the risk is higher than I've seen in a long time. The Storm Prediction Center even has the possibility of stronger tornadoes, EF-2 or higher. That's exceptionally rare for northern New England.

Individual supercells can spin up tornadoes, of course. But there could be areas of rotation embedded in some lines of storms. 

HAIL

The Storm Prediction Center has also upped the chances of large hail. Supercells could produce hail as big as two inches in diameter. That's as big as hen eggs, which can definitely dent cars, break windows and damage to siding. 

TIMING/LOCATION

Highest chances of storms are between 8 p.m. and a little after midnight. Storms will tend to fade as they approach southern Vermont late at night as they lose their atmospheric support.

CAVEATS

The area under highest risk is pretty broad brush. There's going to be short lines of storms or supercells. It's possible the bulk of the worst storms could head toward Maine. Or New York. Or Vermont. It's impossible to tell just yet.

These storms are going to be somebody's problem for sure. We just don't know whose problem just yet. At this point, just be aware the weather might really get rough and dangerous tomorrow evening and night. If all this misses Vermont, great! If not, we'll have to deal with it.

Between now and tomorrow afternoon, if you know if somebody is camping in the woods, definitely try to get them out of the forests by late tomorrow afternoon. Falling trees in high winds are no joke. 

 

After A Perfect Summer Weekend, Vermont's Weather Week Turns Hot, And For Some Of Us, Scary

An enhanced, level three out of five risk for 
severe storms is up for tomorrow night in the 
orange areas of this map. That's a rare risk level
for this part of the country. Damaging winds
are the biggest risk. But there could be large
hail or even a couple of tornadoes. 

Our perfect weather weekend in Vermont is over, and it's time to face reality. 

The forecast for the first part of this week, especially Tuesday turns very hot. 

And for many people, especially in northern parts of the state, the forecast turns frightening. A significant severe storm outbreak is now expected across northern New York and northern New England Tuesday evening and night. 

That includes Vermont, especially for areas along and north of Route 2.

More on that in a bit

You probably wouldn't call Sunday's weather cool, but at least as measured in Burlington, the low temperature was 57 degrees. was the "coldest" start to the day since June 24. 

But, Sunday afternoon temperatures reached the low to mid 80s, so summer lives on,

Today to an extent, and especially Tuesday, we will briefly experience the other side of summer. The side that's no so pleasant. The side that's uncomfortable, annoying, even dangerous, as noted above Let's get into the details, in chronologicalorder

TODAY

It will try to get hotter today, but a semi-warm front will try to interfere with that process with some clouds and maybe some showers. But the sun will be out much of the time.  The scattered showers will be pretty light, and mostly in northern Vermont late this afternoon and this evening, 

Highs will get well into the 80s. 

TUESDAY 

This time period will bring Vermont some of its most dramatic weather in years. There's still some question about how hot it will get. And how humid.

The forecast, as I noted yesterday, was for hot air to blast in from Montana and North Dakota. 

Large parts of the northern and central Rocky Mountains were absolutely insane yesterday. It was as hot as 116 degrees in Montana.  Several cities set all time record highs including 115 in Miles City, Montana,  111 in Billings, Montana, 109  in both Salt Lake City, Utah and Sheridan, Wyoming.  

It won't get to 116 here in Vermont thank goodness, but we do expect a one-day flash of intense heat. 

Highs should get well into the 90s amid increasing humidity. The forecast high in Burlington tomorrow is 98 degrees.  Which, believe it or not would not be a record high, as it was 100 degrees on that date in 1995.

It is possible, though somewhat unlikely, that a couple places in Vermont could touch 100 degrees tomorrow. 

The humidity Tuesday might be a little higher than previously expected. We noticed dew points in the 70s in parts of North Dakota yesterday. So we can at least expect dew points to be in the oppressive 65 to 70 degree range. 

It'll be pretty breezy tomorrow, too, so it will be a blast furnace kind of day. Needless to say, a heat advisory is up for most of Vermont. 

That all sets us up for what could be a scary Tuesday night

TUESDAY NIGHT

I haven't seen such a threatening severe thunderstorm forecast in years. A sharp cold front will be moving south from Quebec and hitting all that hot, humid air. Conditions are just right to produce what could be a helluva severe storm outbreak in northern areas especially. 

And it will hit on the 31st anniversary of one of the worse derechos in the regions history. Early on July 15, 1995 and intense band of storms caused widespread damage in the Adirondacks and southern Vermont. 

This time, the target is, as noted, northern New England. As it stands now, the biggest risk zone is along and north of a line from Massena, New York, to Burlington and St. Johnsbury, Vermont, Berlin, New Hampshire, and on up through the northwestern half of Maine. 

Those areas are under an enhanced, level three out of five level alert for severe storms Tuesday night an evening.  That's a rare designation for our region. The last time any part of Vermont was under an enhanced risk level was on July 16, 2024. 

Straight line winds is the main, but not only risk with these potential storms. These winds could be much more powerful than your standard issue severe thunderstorm. We're talking  maybe 70 to 80 mph  or more in a few locations. (As in all severe storm outbreaks, the area affected will have spotty areas with lots of damage, with other areas not seeing anything super dramatic.)

Large hail is a definite possibility. If you have a garage, put your car inside it tomorrow night. 

There's also, once again,  a tornado risk with this outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center says one or two tornados in the northern New England risk zone could be strong. That's an extremely rare thing to say for this neck of the woods. 

And consider this: The only place in the United States that might get a tornado tomorrow or tomorrow night is northern New England. I guess we're the new tornado alley>

This is also going to be a deceptive severe storm event. Usually, things get active in the mid and late afternoon and continue into the early evening. But at 6 p.m. tomorrow, it will probably be sunny and hot, with few if any signs of impending storms. 

But the storms should start to cross the border from Quebec toward 8 p.m. The risk of severe weather will probably continue until around 2 a.m. Wednesday. 

Nighttime storms are particularly dangerous, because it's harder to see them coming. And many people have shut off their phones for the night, so they can't receive severe storm or tornado warning.s 

This is an especially dangerous situation for campers in the woods. If you know anybody is doing that, tell them to get the hell out of the woods and to a safe place by early evening tomorrow.  Note that the 1995 derecho killed at least five campers in the Adirondacks. 

Another weird thing about this potential severe outbreak is its limited location, at least in the United States. (A broad area of southern Quebec is also under the gun with this system Tuesday afternoon and night).

Given that this is happening at night, the ability to sustain the storms will wane as we get later into the night. Also, the atmospheric wind patterns that will help make these storms so intense will probably start to break down by or shortly after after midnight. l 

So the storms will begin to fall apart as they head toward the southern half of Vermont.  By the time you get south of Route 4, there is only a marginal (one out of five on the risk scale) risk of severe weather. If you are in Bennington or Brattleboro, chances are you won't see any kind of thunderstorm, not even some lame garden variety thing. 

Back north, if this thing goes the way current forecasts suggest, there's going to be some pretty widespread power outages. A lot of trees will come down, some into homes, I imagine. Suddenly, I'm not so thrilled by the large trees in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. 

Obviously, forecasts can change. Volatile weather setups like this are notorious for being either worse, or much less severe than forecast.  One thing we can hope for is if this whole thing slows down. If the storms wait until later at night than forecast, then they probably won't be as severe. That's a hope, not a forecast. 

I obviously will have a big update tomorrow morning in this here blog thingy. 

Then, when we get to tomorrow night, have a way to receive weather warnings. A NOAA weather radio is a great resource.  I'm also betting local TV meteorologists will cut into regular broadcasting to provide warnings and updates as the storms loom. 

It's been a weird summer. Sunny and nice, but also very stormy. So here we go again. 

 

Perfect Summer Vermont Weekend Continues; Deep Heat, Maybe Severe Storms By Tuesday, Tuesday Night

A beautiful blue sky with puffy clouds over St
Albans, Vermont yesterday. It was part of a near-
perfect weather weekend in the Green Mountain State.

 We're halfway through a perfect Vermont summer weekend, at least in terms of weather. 

On Saturday, the temperature was perfect. The humidity was perfect. The scattered puffy clouds were perfect. A pleasant north breeze was perfect. Wildfire smoke in the atmosphere almost entirely dissipated.  

It's been really warm lately, so by comparison, yesterday was actually the coolest day since June 27, at least as measured in Burlington. That "cool" weather involved a warm high of 82 degrees.

Enjoy it while you can. By Tuesday, things could get rough. More on that in a minute.

Meanwhile, if you somehow missed Saturday's weather, we'll do it again today. Details:

TODAY

We started the day with temperatures in the 50s, with upper 40s in the cooler spots. If you didn't sleep well last night, don't blame the weather. It was a perfect summer sleeping night. There's that word again. Perfect. 

The only real difference today is it will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. So, low to mid 80s. There might be a little more wildfire smoke in the atmosphere today, compared to yesterday. But it will amount to some haze at times.

Go out there and enjoy any outdoor activity you like. The only thing to watch out for is the sun. You'll need sunscreen.

MONDAY

Here's where the weather starts to go downhill. But just a little. Warm air from the west and south will start to flow in.  By afternoon, highs will get into the mid and upper 80s, maybe even flirting with 90 in the hottest valleys. The humidity will begin to creep up, but it will still be pretty reasonable. 

It should be mostly sunny, though a weak disturbance might touch off a few light showers, mostly in northern Vermont. But the chances of that are low. 

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT

This will be the real trouble day. The first problem will be the heat. We're calling it "jailbreak heat," a term I stole from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. It's "jailbreak"  because a piece of hot air will escape from a terribly torrid heat dome over the northern Rockies. That plume of hot air will be racing east across the far northern Plains, southern Canada and down across New England .

We'll start the day warm, and it will get hotter and hotter as the day goes on and the blast furnace air comes in from the west. 

By late afternoon, almost all of Vermont will be at least 90 degrees. The warmest valleys should make it into the mid-90s.  There's a slight chance that the warmest valleys could be in the 95 to 100 degree range, but statewide, 90 to 95 degrees looks like the safest bet. 

It'll turn more humid, too. But not as humid as in that heat wave that struck at the beginning of the month. The hot air won't have a direct connection to the steamy Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. But southwest winds will bring in some moisture. 

STORMS?

The next problem with Tuesday will come late in the day, most likely after dark.  A southward moving cold front making its way into the hot air into Quebec will encounter a lot of atmospheric instability.

It looks like a large chunk of southern Quebec faces a nasty severe storm and tornado outbreak on Tuesday. 

By late in the day, that activity will start to cross the border into northern New England, including areas of Vermont near the Canadian border. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction has areas north of Route 2 in a slight risk of severe storms (level 2 out of 5 risk, with maybe a greater risk of high winds. The  rest of the state in a marginal risk (level one out of five).

That's a preliminary forecast. For now, the storms look like they will cross the border from Quebec into Vermont after dark, when the storms would be losing the atmosphere's strongest instability. They might be starting to weaken by then.  But they would still be powerful. 

Or, the storms could show up earlier, when they would be stronger.

In any event, all this is potentially dangerous for the campers enjoying Vermont's forests. Especially if these storms hit at night, when people are sleeping in tents or flimsy RVs. Falling trees in this scenario are obviously dangerous. 

An example of how dangerous could be a 1995 derecho that swept through New York's Adirondack mountains, killing seven people. 

Tuesday night's weather is something we'll really have to keep an eye on. 

Gorgeous Vermont Weekend Underway; Weird Brief Hot Blast Coming; Severe Storms?

Bright pink lilies enjoy the morning sun this morning
in St. Albans, Vermont. The entire weekend is 
set to be sunny and warm. 

The weather in Vermont knows are schedule for now.  We want nice weekends in the summer and now we've got one on our hands.  

We've actually had a fair number of nice weekend days this summer, so we should be pretty happy with this summer.

This weekend still looks like the best one of the summer. Comfortable enough for vigorous activities like hiking to the summit of Camels Hump. 

Warm enough to jump off the rocks at a swimming hole and plunge into the refreshing, hopefully clean water.  Or, pleasant enough to weed the garden, or fall asleep in the hammock after reading a great novel. 

It's weekend weather endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

Today, we're off to a terrific start. As dawn broke this morning, temperatures statewide were in the comfortable 50s, with some low 60s right near Lake Champlain. The strong July sun will get us up to 80 degrees or so this afternoon. We'll see some wildfire smoke in the air, but it shouldn't get so thick to make us choke or worry too much about air quality. 

Humidity is often high in mid-July. Not today, or tomorrow. After the sun sets tonight, the temperature will crash down into the 50s again overnight. Except near 60 again near Lake Champlain. 

Sunday will be another winner. The only difference between today and tomorrow is Sunday will be a bit warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The sun will still shine, the humidity will stay low, and a little wildfire smoke will probably linger in the air. 

After The Weekend

After our stellar weekend, the weather will turn interesting during the week, following the general pattern we've seen this summer. 

As mentioned yesterday, a big heat dome is becoming established over the Rockies and northern Plains. There could well be some all-time record high temperatures in Montana, North Dakota and in Canada, parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.  

A renegade piece of that heat is set to escape from the Rocky Mountains, race east over southern Canada and blast down on us by Tuesday. 

We'll start to feel the heat Monday as highs get into the upper 80s. By Tuesday, the brief packet of heat should be here in New England. In Vermont, most of us should be in the 90s again, with the risk of some mid or even upper 90s in the hottest valleys. 

It will turn more humid, but not as steamy as it could possibly get. The air is coming from the dry West, after all. So we won't get the full tropical blast. 

Then things could get really interesting Tuesday night. A cold front will be approaching from Quebec. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has already flagged the risk of severe weather in northern New England later Tuesday or Tuesday night.  It's unusual for New England, at least, for NOAA to sniff this type of thing out days in advance.

It's not definite yet, it's possible nothing will happen. But some forecasters are already throwing around the words "supercell" or "derecho."

We'll keep an eye on this one as get closer to the event. 

Meanwhile, forget about all that. Enjoy this  gorgeous weekend. 

Fourth Year In A Row With Vermont Weather Trouble On July 9 or 10. Next Up, Pleasant, But Maybe Smoky, Then A Hot Flash

Torrential rains in St. Albans, Vermont during a strong
thunderstorm late Thursday afternoon. The same storm
 strengthened as it moved east, eventually causing
 substantial tree and power line damage
in the Northeast Kingdom. Flooding hit central Vermont

 It turns out we had weather trouble in Vermont around July 10 for the fourth  year in a row. 

The trouble hit a little early this year, on July 9, instead of July 10 like we saw in 2023, 2024 and 2025. But yesterday, we had flooding in and around Barre, and thunderstorm wind damage in the Northeast Kingdom. 

The core of the wind damage was in Lyndon and East Burke. Video showed numerous trees down along Route 114.  

Somebody in the video background suggests it was a tornado. Perhaps, but since all the trees appeared to fall in the same direction, at least as seen in the video clip, I suspect intense straight line winds.

Another batch of thunderstorms nearly stalled over central Vermont. It was enough to flood the streets of Barre, again. This was mostly poor drainage flooding and not quite as serious as in recent years. 

In Montpelier, nearly 2.5 inches of rain fell yesterday, including 1.75 inches within two hours. 

I guess we should be grateful over a trend line. The worst flooding hit statewide on July 10, 2023. In 2024, most of the destruction was across a broad band through central Vermont. In 2025, destructive flooding was limited to just parts of the Northeast Kingdom.  And yesterday, almost all of Vermont escaped unscathed, except in the Barre-Montpelier area and a small part of the Northeast Kingdom.

Even better, we're done with the rough weather for a little while, anyway. 

TODAY

It looks like the cold front as of 8 a.m this morning was draped across central Vermont, judging from a line of very light showers drifting southward.  The front is too weak to create any dangerous downpours or high winds. We'll have no major weather today. 

This morning started humid, but light north breezes will slowly dry the moisture out of the air. The sun will break through where it hasn't already, and we should make into the low 80s this afternoon.

WEEKEND

It's still looking like a terrific weekend if you love summer.  The humidity should remain low enough, and afternoon highs will reach the 80s under sunny skies. 

Dimmed sun, though. Smoke from wildfires in Quebec near James Bay will probably drift down into Vermont on those north winds. So the Green Mountains of Vermont might well be hidden by haze. I'm not sure whether we'd have enough smoke to trigger any air quality alerts. but we'll wait for more info on that.

NEXT WEEK

A heat dome is setting up in the western United States which will create record high temperatures in places like Montana and North Dakota, and other states.

A storm way up in central and northern Canada will pull a plume of that hot air eastward, arriving here Monday and Tuesday. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is calling it a "jailbreak heat," as it's escaping the heat dome where it originated. 

We should see highs near 90 on Monday and as high as the mid-90s Tuesday. Considering where the air is coming from, it will be pretty dry air.  The kind that doesn't feel quite as bad as most heat waves, but drains the moisture from your garden plants. You'll need to water.

The heat won't last long. If there's a northward bulge in the jet stream with the heat dome in the West, you need a southward dip in the jet stream in the East.

That will start to set up midweek. A cold front will come through Tuesday night or Wednesday. Probably with little fanfare. It won't get that cold, probably seasonably warm late in the week. 

As always, long range forecasts like that are subject to change. At least we have no scary storms or floods in our immediate future.