California Surfer Dude Is Unlikely High Quality El Nino Journalist As Pacific Ocean Swamps Coast

Blair Conklin, an unlikely and very good citizen 
journalist, seen here covering record tidal 
flooding Monday in Newport Beach California. 

Sometimes, reliable, related about and well-reported news comes from unlikely sources. Especially these days.  

Meet Blair Conklin, a surfer dude from southern California. He's straight from Central Casting. He's got a big mop of curly blonde, sun-bleached hair. 

What appears to be a perennial tan. He's got that cool dude California vernacular, at least a little bit, when he talks.  Even is first name fits the part. 

Conklin, a native of Laguna Beach, is an accomplished award-winning professional skimboarder and surfer. He's got a very popular YouTube channel called SkidKids, that has 4 million followers and mostly deals with surfing and California beach life. 

Lately, the southern California coast has been swallowed up by El Nino.  The warm water has stirred up numerous hurricanes off the Mexican west coast, sending battering swells long distance into California beaches. 

El Nino has also produced a Kelvin wave, which sharply elevates water levels along the California coast (It brings warm water, which expands compared to cold water.) 

El Nino also is starting to bring storms to southern California. This week, the Kelvin wave combined with unusually high King Tides have caused record flooding. 

And one of the best places to find information about this is Conklin's SkidKids YouTube channel. 

Conklin has been all over this story. 

Lots of media outlets have been covering the wave-battered homes, some of them red-tagged, the crumbling cliffs, the flooded streets and alleys. 

But our surfer Conklin knows his coast, the tidal patterns, how waves behave when they crash onto the coast, how the swells remove sand from the beaches to make the waves that much more destructive. 

The result is some of the best journalism connected to this slowly building California coastal disaster. Right there on his SkidKids channel. He knows the area, and he's good working with a cell phone camera and a drone. 

Conklin shows us how the waves are causing new problems, and worsening old ones. He shows us how abrupt, weird October tropical downpours can flood streets in an instant. He shows how high tide flooding gets around barriers and sand bags.

He even apparently broke some news. Earlier this month, CalTrans shut down one lane of a section of the Pacific Coast Highway in Laguna Beach. It seems the public was at first unsure why. Conklin then posted a video showing a large crack had developed on an embankment supporting part of the highway. 

Battering waves had eroded the base of the embankment. Conklin also followed the story as CalTrans put tarps over the embankment, hoping to prevent heavy rains from making the situation worse. 

The news over the past couple of days has been the record tidal flooding, caused by the Kelvin Wave/King Tide one-two punch. 

Earlier today, Conklin took us the the famed Balboa Peninsula in Newport Beach, where serious tidal flooding hit despite efforts to building barricades and sandbag walls. It's really a great in-depth video to help us understand what California is facing this fall and winter. 

Not all citizen journalists are that good, of course. They have agendas. They make assumptions. They don't know how to ask good questions. They don't know how to find good, accurate information. But every once in awhile, you get a good one like Conklin. 

I'll be relying on him all winter for weather news from California. Even if I am an old, landlubbing, inland Vermonter who doesn't know the first thing about surfing. 

 

Back To The Constant Sunshine In Vermont After Monday Clouds

It actually rained a little in St. Albans, Vermont 
Monday. Just a little. But it's back to the dry weather 
through next weekend. Perhaps a few light rain
showers Thursday night north, but that's it. 

 If you are somehow sick of sunshine, you must have enjoyed yesterday, unless you are in southern Vermont, where the sun stayed out for at least a decent part of the day. 

Far northern Vermont actually had a little rain during the day. Enough to dampen the ground. 

Here in St. Albans, we actually measured 0.03 inches of rain. Burlington had a trace - nothing measurable - so officially, the dry spell there goes on. 

This morning, we were back to the same routine. As dawn broke, skies were clear, temperatures statewide were below freezing.  

This clear sky trend will continue for the next few days, at least generally. But signs are pointing toward this sunny stretch ending, eventually. 

TODAY

As expected, the sun will stay out all day under blue skies. It'll be chilly, with temperatures holding the 40s. A steady north breeze will make it feel even chillier. Super dry air will make things feel especially crisp. 

WEDNESDAY

We're sticking with the forecast for a frigid start to the day, with lows across Vermont still expected to be mostly between 18 to 25 degrees. But the sunshine will draw afternoon temperatures back into the comfortable 50s. 

It might not be completely sunny. A weak disturbance looks like it might thrown some high clouds our way. Still absolutely no rain, though. 

THURSDAY

Another chilly start, another sunny day. Southwest winds will bring temperatures up to the low and mid 60s. This is a day we might have to really watch the fire danger. The dry spell, and all the fallen leaves, have raised the fire danger. The winds could spread any fires that start, so be particular careful. 

The next cold front is scheduled to come through Thursday night. It'll be very similar to yesterday's. Maybe, just maybe it'll have a tiny bit more oomph to it. That means northern parts of the state could eg a few paltry hundredths of an inch of rain. Probably nothing further south. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

The next big, fat high pressure system comes in. As a sign that this pattern might eventually break down, this big, fat high pressure system might not be quite as big, quite as fat as the last few. Still, it will ensure more sunny skies.

It'll be a little cooler, but perhaps not as cool as today. We'll be back to subfreezing mornings and highs in the 50s. Same conditions on Saturday. Sunday could be a little warmer, with readings maybe in the upper 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

At first, we might be in a battle zone between a last big, fat high pressure from Canada and a storm coming up from the southwest. This would be our best chance of rain since mid-month. It won't be huge, and there's still a chance the high pressure could deflect the storm to our south. So stay tuned.

If that misses us, we have a shot at another rain late in the week.  

September Was World's Second Hottest. Oceans Set Record For Heat, Portending Wild El Nino Winter

The world was hot again in September, the second
hottest on record. The eastern Pacific Ocean was 
especially hot, thanks to a record-breaking El Nino

The world had its second hottest September on record, continuing the global heat boosted by El Nino, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.  

The data follows a trend of recent hot months, as most months this year have been either the warmest or second warmest on record.  

Climate change has a lot to do with it. But a record setting strong El Nino is further boosting worldwide temperatures.

As you'd expect, there were widespread areas of much warmer than normal temperatures around the globe. 

Obviously. the eastern and central Pacific Ocean was roasting, as that area is the epicenter of El Nino. 

Other especially hot areas were the southern and central United States, Mexico, western South America, parts the Arctic, southwestern and northeastern Europe, and large portions of Asia, western Africa, the Indian Ocean, and western and southern Australia.

Even during a month in which the world is practically on fire, you're going to have a few cold spots. Some spots in the Arctic and Antarctica were a little on the cold side. Also, some areas of western north America and southern Africa. Despite the cold spot or two in the Arctic, that region overall still had its hottest September on record. 

The world's oceans were hot. Really hot. 

According to NCEI's report: 

"For a fourth consecutive month, the global ocean surface temperature departure set a new record high, averaging 1.98 degrees F above average for September. This value represents the highest ocean temperature departure for any month on record, edging out the previous all-time record set only last month, August, 2026."

This is ominous. Such huge amounts of heat stored in the oceans, could help the atmosphere really go into overdrive during the next several months at least.  

With all that hot ocean water, tropical cyclone activity was above average. In September, the world saw 10 tropical storms, nine of which reached hurricane status. Or typhoon status, same thing. Six of these storms became major hurricanes. 

The eastern Pacific north of the equator, with its record ocean heat content due to El Nino, was super busy, to say the least. There, eight tropical storms formed in September,  tying a record for most during September. The tie is with 1994, 1997 and 2015. Eight of the storms ended up being  . Five of those were major hurricanes.   

The years 1997 and 2015 were big El Nino years, so that makes sense. 

One of them, Category 5 Hurricane Polo became the second most intense eastern Pacific hurricane on record. Only Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was stronger. 

On the other hand, El Nino causes strong upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those winds tore apart and tropical systems that tried to form. In September, four tropical storms managed to form - briefly - before being ripped apart. No hurricanes formed. 

This is the first times since satellites started keeping a constant eye on the Atlantic that no hurricanes formed by the first of October.  

UNITED STATES

The Lower 48 had its warmest September on record.
The middle of the U.S. was especially hot. 

The Lower 48 of the United States had its warmest September on record, NCEI reported. It surpassed the previous record set in 1998, which was another big El Nino year. So far this year, four months, March, July, August and September were the warmest on record for their respective months. 

The September heat was concentrated in the southern and central United States. The month was dominated by a heat dome that stayed pretty much put almost over the entire month. 

Eight states- Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas had their hottest September on record. 

A persistent heat dome occupied the southern and middle parts of the U.S. pretty much all month, accounting for the heat. There were corresponding dips in the jet stream in the western and northeastern U.S., so those areas were actually pretty close to normal. 

Oklahoma Center, near the epicenter of the heat dome, had a September that was incredible 11.5 degrees hotter than normal.  Thirteen days reached at least 100 degrees. Only four days during September in OKC failed to reach 90 degrees. 

Oregon had its 42nd coolest September on record, making it the only state in the nation that was definitely on the cool side. That's out of the past 132 Septembers. Here in Vermont, were also weren't anywhere near any records. NCEI said the Green Mountain State had its 40th warmest September out of the past 132 years. 

A band from the Desert Southwest to central and northern Plains were definitely on the wet side, while the Southeast was dry, the NCEI said in its national summary for September. 

Arizona and New Mexico had their second wettest September record.  Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Ohio also had one of their ten wettest Septembers. As an example of how wet the middle to the U.S. was, Omaha, Nebraska had 11.92 inches of rain in September. Normal there is 2.96 inches. 

On the other side. Arkansas was the driest of them all, having its eighth driest September. 

Here in Vermont, we had our 46th driest September out the past 132 years. 

Now that we're almost done with October, it's pretty much a given that this month will end up one of the hottest Octobers on record, if not the hottest. Record heat waves have hit large parts of Asia, Africa, the Mideast and North America in recent weeks. 

We'll see when the next NCEI report is released in mid-November. 

Actual Clouds Out There In Vermont Today Before Wall to Wall Sunshine Returns.

For a change, the remaining golden leaves on the trees
this morning were not lit up by sunshine. A weak 
cold front is creating clouds in Vermont, but
much more clear weather is on the way. 

Well, Sunday was as awesome as predicted. Wall to wall sunshine once again.  

Temperatures were remarkably uniform - all the reporting stations in Vermont had highs between 62 to 65 degrees. That's a little warmer than average. Just beautiful. 

The dry air is still locked in, so despite the warm weather yesterday, it still got below freezing last night, at least east of the Green Mountains. 

Today will be a transition day between the warmth and a temporary leap toward really nippy weather. Let's get into it. 

TODAY 

We have an interruption in the long spell of sunshine, but it won't last long. The weak cold front is coming in and it definitely has clouds with it. More so than another, weaker cold front last Thursday. 

But don't count on any real rain. Radar shows a band of showers across southern Quebec, including through Montreal.  The band was sinking south toward Vermont, but weakening as it did so. 

During the later morning and early afternoon, some of those showers look like they might hang in there, a little. The dry air is wrecking the rain, drying it up as it falls. That means maybe sprinkles in the northern Vermont valleys, and perhaps a few hundredth of an inch on northern Vermont mountain summits. 

The temperature forecast is a little tricky today, which is a change from previous days. When nothing is happening, it's easy to forecast temperatures. It's a reason why yesterday's temperatures exactly matched previous forecasts. 

But today, with a cold front coming through in the middle of the day, and variable clouds, there's room for error in the forecast. The National Weather Service is going for high in the 50s north, 60s north. 

TUESDAY

Another in a series of big, fat high pressure systems from Canada will be moving in. The cold air will already be in place when we get up in the morning. We'll start the day with temperatures in the 20s, maybe a couple low 30s in the warmer valleys. 

North breezes on the front side of the high will keep us quite chilly tomorrow. Highs will be only in the 40s, maybe a couple low 50s in the warmer valleys south. We'll be back to wall-to-wall sunshine again. 

WEDNESDAY

We'll start the day with the coldest morning of the year so far. Temperatures at dawn will range between 18 and 25 degrees for most of us. So yes, definitely chilly. But we're back to the same pattern we've been in. By afternoon, the combination of sun and dry air will bring us up into the low and mid 50s by afternoon.

THURSDAY

The same weather pattern continues. Like the last two big, fat high pressure systems, this one will weaken and sink to our south. That means warmer southwest breezes will bring us back up to near 60 degrees by afternoon. After another subfreezing morning, of course. Sunshine will prevail, of course. 

FRIDAY

Yet another in our long series of big, fat high pressure systems will come in after another weak cold front. Maybe accompanied by a few light showers again, but don't count on it. But the weather pattern is finally showing signs of ending. This big, fat high pressure system might not be quite as big and fat as the previous ones. 

Still, it will be a rinse and repeat situation of what we've seen for the past couple of weeks. 

AFTER NEXT WEEKEND

As we always insist, long range forecasts are always iffy. But after next weekend, it's beginning to look like we'll have some chances of rain finally coming in. We need it, so we'll definitely welcome it if it happens. 

 

Arizona, Other Sections Of U.S. Reeling From Past Week's Storms. A Harbinger Of A Violent El Nino Winter?

People soak in a pool that was being
threatened by record flooding in
Pagosa Springs, Colorado last week

An early season storm last week prompted Arizona's first tornado warning in 16 years, produced at least three tornadoes, and set off gorilla hailstorms and flooding. 

At least three suspected tornadoes hit Arizona. The worst appears to be in Overgaard, a town of about 3,000 people roughly 140 miles north of Phoenix. 

Roofs of home were torn off and trees crashed through other roofs.  

In Phoenix, there were no tornadoes, but intense thunderstorm winds and large hail caused widespread, severe damage, especially in the northern half of the city. The hail broke countless windows, smashed zillions of car windshields and left vehicles hopelessly dented. Video showed parking lots full of cars destroyed by hail up to the size of baseballs. 

Strong winds also torn apart numerous trees. Phoenix easily suffered many millions of dollars in damage in just one storm. Maybe over $1 billion.  Another Phoenix hailstorm in 2010 caused $2.7 billion in damage. 

In southern California, violent storms also hit. Video captured swirling debris in Victorville, which makes me suspect at least a weak tornado. Other areas in the Los Angeles basin saw hail, flooding downpours and wind damage. 

Severe flooding hit the Four Corners region, the area where Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado and Utah meet. The flooding began in earnest Wednesday and continued the rest of the week. 

Intense flooding also hit southwest Colorado.

Per CBS:

"Video shared with CBS Colorado shows a Pagosa Springs house inundated with floodwaters. All that can be seen is a small piece of the roof and the chimney."

 Other houses were inundated or being undermined by water. This is the second damaging flood in Pagosa Springs within a  year.  The San Juan river crested ago 15.02 feet Friday, compared to 12.8 feet during last year's flood. 

Hurricane, Utah had its second severe flood since August. One family had just moved back into their house three weeks ago after it was damaged by flooding, only to have it inundated again 

The area is known as a resort with popular hot springs. Almost all the hotels and tourists attractions are on higher ground and suffered little damage.

EL NINO INFLUENCE

It's beginning to look like a wild El Nino all and winter is already have an effect. It's unclear whether the violent weather is related to El Nino, but it is consistent with the pattern that's widely expected this winter. 

As NPR reports: 

"Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, says the severe thunderstorms are ruled by the large amount of moisture in the air. He says the moisture comes from the record-warm waters off parts of the West Coast, which are drive by an ongoing strong El Nino event and a recent marine heat wave (which he attributes largely to human-caused climate change)."

The West Coast and parts of the Southwest - along with most of the rest of the southern United States - is bracing for a terribly stormy winter, courtesy of the record strong El Nino. 

Already, another strong, wet storm looks like it might slam into the southern California coast, and then spread more heavy air into the Southwest in about a week. 

 

Wall-To-Wall Sunshine Continues In Vermont As Long Dry Spell Continues

Another gorgeous day in Vermont Saturday as seen here in 
South Burlington. More of the same today. 

The wall to wall sunshine continues, as Vermont's long dry spell continues. Yesterday was clear. Today will be clear. Mostly. We'll get into it in a bit.  

The very dry air ensures we have cold nights and warm days. Again, most of the time, anyway. 

After a cold morning Saturday, the sunshine brought temperatures right back up into the 50s.  Winds were light, so it was particularly pleasant. 

I started the day freezing in fleece and then by afternoon, I was down to a black t-shirt doing fall cleanup in the sun.

Then, by dawn this morning, everybody in Vermont was down in the 20s.  Temperatures will continue to yoyo, thanks to continued dry air and a cold front. 

TODAY

Those cold morning lows today were quickly being erased by the sunshine.  The big fat high pressure that was over us yesterday is a little weaker to our south, which means we'll see some light southwest winds. That will boost temperatures to near 60. With low to mid 60s in the warmer valleys. 

Because the air mass has warmed up, tonight won't be quite as cold as last night. Most of us will be in the 30s for lows. 

MONDAY

There's actually a chance of rain. Sort of. In spots. The next cold front is due during the day Monday. The air ahead of the cold front will be dry. The air behind the front will be dry. So there's no real supply of moisture to set off showers, like most cold fronts produce. 

The front might be able to grab the tiny bits of moisture in the air to set off some very light showers, mainly over the northern Green Mountains. In their forecast discussion this morning, the National Weather Service in South Burlington noted some computer models produce up to 0.05 inches of rain in some northern mountains. 

But with so much dry air, that 0.05 inches seems generous, the NWS says. More likely, a little rain might come out of the clouds, dampen some rocks on mountain summits. Then the rain will dry up in the air before reaching the valleys. 

Just to be on the safe side, the National Weather Service has a 20 to 30 percent chance of a light shower in northern Vermont. It will be cloudier than recent days. The front will be coming in from the north, so it'll  hold daytime temperatures up there in the 50s. Southern Vermont will be sunnier, and in the 60s 

TUESDAY

As I mentioned yesterday, the next big, fat high pressure system comes in, colder than the previous one. Despite another day of basically wall to wall sunshine, it's going to be much colder. Highs will be in the 40s, with maybe a few low 50s in warmer southern valleys.

Since this is colder air, get ready for a very cold Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYONDThe 

There's actually a chance that a few places in Vermont could have near record low, though the chances of that are iffy.  Montpelier's expected low is 20 degrees Wednesday morning, and the record low for the date is 19. 

Elsewhere. record lows are unlikely.  Burlington's expected low Wednesday is 25, the record low is 19.  St. Johnsbury is expecting a lot Wednesday morning of 19, the record low is 13.

We'll check later for updates to see if forecasters lower the expected minimum temperatures. By Wednesday afternoon, it will warm up to the mid-50s again. 

The big fat high pressure system will eventually make us mild again, with highs in the low 60s. That high will eventually go off to the east, possibly followed by another one next week. 

Through today, we will have gone nine consecutive days with no measurable precipitation That's not anywhere remotely close the record. In the spring of 1903, Burlington went 53 days without measurable rain. 

 

Relentless Clear Skies Lead To Very Nippy Vermont Morning, Much More Sunshine To Come

A few golden maple leaves were still clinging to the trees
 in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday as cool, breezy
and very dry weather continued.

 As expected, it was arguably the coldest morning of the autumn so far in Vermont.  

It looks like pretty much everyone in Vermont at dawn today was in the 20s.  I imagine the coldest hollows were in the teens. 

For example, Morrisville got down to 19 degrees, and I'm sure there were a few similar readings in the Northeast Kingdom. Burlington was down to 28, its coldest morning of the year so far. Barely. It was 29 degrees Thursday and Friday. 

The big fat high pressure system is sitting right over us today. That means clear skies and light winds for today. There were a few high clouds in southern Vermont this morning, but those should thin out even more as we go through the day. 

The sun is at a low angle but still strong enough to warm us up into the 50s. Dry air allows the sun to warm the air quickly. 

The light winds mean there also won't be as much of a bite to the air, either.  

I know this is getting boring, but bear with me. Every day is sunny, the weather just doesn't change, except for some variations in temperature. 

Anyway, as I noted, beyond today, we have plenty of sunshine, really chapped lips dry weather coming up for pretty. At least it's been easy to forecast. We've covered today, so let's get into the next few days. 

SUNDAY

Our big, fat high pressure system that's overhead today will begin to sink to the south and weaken a little. The end result will be another delightful day. I'll be below freezing again first thing in the morning. Then, with light southwest winds, temperatures will rise to the low 60s, which is absolutely beautiful ro this time year. 

It'll be another day of wall-to-wall sunshine, aside from some possible high, thin clouds late in the day. 

MONDAY

Another cold front will arrive, very much like the one we had on Thursday. That means a bunch of clouds will come in - we'll call it partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will go from light southerly to light northerly. High temperatures will depend on how many clouds come in, and when the cold front arrives. 

Dry air ahead of and behind the cold front means almost no rain. Unlike Saturday, there is a low chance of sprinkles or light showers, but it won't exactly be any real rain. n 

Forecasters are going for highs of around 60 degrees. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND BEYOND

The next in a series of big, fat high pressure system will drift in from south central Canada. This one will likely be even a little stronger than the one that's sitting overhead today. Each one of these has been a little colder than the last. That'll probably happen this time, too. We're getting closer and closer to winter. We have to expect that, right?

Tuesday's highs look like they'll stay in the 40s, so a little cooler than yesterday, for comparison. After a frigid Wednesday morning, we'll warm up again. Not to toasty levels, just more comfortable again.  

Beyond that, you can't always count on forecast being right this far in advance. But early indications point to another cold front, again with very light rain or none at all, with another big, fat, high pressure system of clear, dry air to follow. 

I don't know when this weather pattern will break down. A week ago, I thought it would be around October 30. Now, it maybe looks like we'll wait until November 3 or 4 before noticeable precipitation falls. Who knows? Maybe it'll get postponed again. 

But this nice weather can't last forever. And we need the rain. Or snow, since we're talking November by the time any substantial storm tries to come through.