Some Vermont Flash Flooding Reported; Hot, Humid Weather Today, Tomorrow With Storm Threats

Flash flood damage in Walcott. Photo by Ashelyn 
Burroughs via Facebook 

The humidity is here and we're already wilting. And getting pretty wet in the process. We have two more days to go in this oppressive spell here in Vermont. Followed by a warm weekend and several chances of thunderstorms. Some might be severe tomorrow.

So let's get into it. 

First of all, I mentioned the other day we've entered flash flood season. Vermont had its first instance of trouble yesterday amid the slow moving storms 

They were  hit and miss, and most of us were fine. But the National Weather Service in South Burlington had to issue a flash flood warning for a section of north central Vermont for heavy rains. 

Sure enough, flood damage was reported around Wolcott and Hardwick. Part of East Hill Road in Hardwick had to close for flood damage. So did a section of Bunker Hill Road in Hardwick. 

I was also concerned last night about a nearly stalled area of heavy rain along the International border near and east or Newport, but so far, I haven't heard of any trouble there. 

Now let's look at what's hitting us next:

TODAY

We started off nasty enough with gray skies, temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s and dew points at similar levels.  

We'll get well into the 80s today as that humidity continues. A few places, especially in southeast Vermont could easily top 90 degrees.  A heat advisory for "real feel" temperatures in the mid-90s is in effect in the lower Connecticut River Valley from roughly White River Junction south. 

It'll feel almost as bad in the rest of Vermont. Usually the Champlain Valley is another hot spot, but clouds and showers might keep temperatures just under 90 degrees. We'll see.

Speaking of those showers and thunderstorms, they'll roam the state again today. I'm getting somewhat mixed messages from various sources and models as to how widespread they'll be. One model, the HRRR, was fairly blasé, firing up some southern Vermont storms and maybe an isolated one in central Vermont. 

Other models get up to 60 percent of us wet by late afternoon or evening via showers and storms. In any event, they won't be as widespread as yesterday. The flash flood threat is also very low, though there could be some isolated trouble again because some storms will produce torrential rains. 

FRIDAY

We have an exciting weather day ahead with oppressive heat and the risk of strong storms 

The atmosphere over Vermont will reach its hottest point of this stretch of misery on Friday. After a stuffy overnight, temperatures will soar to 90 degrees or more in many places, espeicalluy the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River valleys, where heat advisories are in effect again. The western parts of Rutland and Bennington counties are included in tomorrow's heat advisory. 

The National Weather Service is mulling whether to expand tomorrow's heat advisories, but will wait for more data before deciding whether to pull the trigger. 

It will be another very humid day. Definitely take it easy out there and don't work too hard. Three days of sticky, ugly weather accumulates the heat stress.  Plus, this is the first big hot, humid spell of the season, so we're not quite used to it yet. 

While you're suffering from the heat, you're also going to need access to weather warnings, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. 

It looks like conditions will be a little better to form severe storms than we thought yesterday. The instability will be super high, so that will be a factor. An approaching cold front will start to cool the upper atmosphere and increase winds aloft. 

All those are ingredients for severe storms. The winds aloft won't be super strong, which might be limiting factor. But at this point, at least a few severe storms with strong winds are a decent bet. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a level 2 out of five alert level fort severe storms. 

WARM WEEKEND

This first cold front won't have much cold air behind it. Saturday and Sunday will feature highs in the 80s. It'll be somewhat less humid, though. Another cold front will come in on Sunday with more showers and storms. Depending on the timing of the front, we could see another risk of severe storms .

Decidedly cooler weather comes in for the first part of next week with highs in the near-normal 70s.  

 

Humidity,, Storms To Hassle Vermont For Next Three Days

Irises are a staple of June gardens in Vermont. This group
of purple irises in St. Albans was awaiting the 
expected showers and storms that are likely today'
through Friday. High humidity arrives, too. 

 Vermont's spell of spectacular June weather is over, at least for now. 

Tuesday was another winner.  A refreshingly cool start to the day yielded to highs in the 80s under sunny skies. Humidity was low. Perfect for whatever you were doing outdoors. 

Today through Friday, not so much. 

We woke up to clouds and haze and humidity that was beginning to creep upwards. As of 6:45 a.m, showers were already lurking in the Adirondacks. Humidity, clouds and showers, along with some sun, is the game for awhile around here.

Lets do the details: 

TODAY:

A small disturbance is working its way into the region from the west, along with a warm front of sorts. The result is a rising chance of showers, with a few thunderstorms rolled into the mess as we go through the day. The best chances of rain are late this afternoon and this evening. Despite the showers, we should make it to near 80 degrees today.

As is always the case with showers and storms, rainfall will be super variable, with one town on the road getting drenched and the next town over only getting a little.  

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center still has the interior Northeast, including Vermont in a marginal risk zone for flash floods today. That takes into account the risk for locally torrential downpours. That said, the overall risk for flash flooding today and tonight in Vermont is thankfully pretty low. 

But in general, forecasters think a half to three quarters of an inch is in the cards north, with maybe a quarter inch south by tomorrow morning.

THURSDAY

This will be the "nicest" of the three days of humidity we're focusing on. But most of you aren't going to love it. By tomorrow, dew points, a measure of how humid it feels out there, will continue to rise, reaching the upper 60s to near 70 by afternoon. That's oppressive. Since this will be the first real humid spell of the season, we're not used to it yet. So it will feel worse.

If you must work your butt off  outside, maybe don't work your butt off quite so much. And drink a lot of fluids. It can get dangerous. 

We'll have another smattering of showers and thunderstorms dancing around the landscape in the afternoon and evening, too. They probably won't as widespread as the stuff we'll get later today. Probably just half of us will get wet. 

The thunderstorms that get going tomorrow afternoon won't be severe, but a few of them will send a bucket full of torrential rain where they do hit. When it's as humid as we expect, you're going to get bursts of rain like that. 

FRIDAY

This will be the worst day of the stretch. It will be the hottest day of the bunch, and have the greatest threat of a few strong storms. 

There's still debate on how hot the actual temperature will be. If there's a lot of clouds and showers around morning and early to mid afternoon, we might not make it to 90 degrees. Sunshine will bring us to those 90 degree temperatures. 

Either way, we'll roast. Because of that humidity.  Dew points will stay in the upper 60s so hot. So hot, that the National Weather Service has issued a heat advisory Friday for the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, and western Rutland County. 

The heat index Friday between noon and 8 p.m. could be around 95 degrees. The rest of Vermont doesn't quite fit the criteria for a heat advisory, but trust me, it will be plenty uncomfortable statewide 

The next problem is the expected rising chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. With a cold front starting to approach, we might have enough atmospheric energy to produce a couple strong or isolated severe storms. 

So far, it looks like the best dynamics for severe weather will be just to our west in New York, but the forecast will be adjusted as needed.

COOLING TREND

Luckily, the heat and humidity won't last forever. A series of cold fronts will come through, each one dropping our temperatures a bit. 

Friday night's cold front looks like it might give us a warm, but less humid Saturday. After that, we'll have a chance of showers each day heading into early next week, but daytime temperatures will only be in the 70s by Monday and Tuesday.  

lt's Flash Flood Season In Much Of the U.S. No Big Threats In Vermont - Yet

Damage from flash flooding near Hinesburg, Vermont
in July, 2024. We're now entering prime flash flood
season, and Vermonters still have some PTSD from
the floods of the last three summers. Very slight 
chance of some local flash floods Wednesday night
in Vermont, but no big threats ---yet

Summer is the season of flash floods in the United States.

Such floods can happen anytime of year, of course. But summer, with its slow moving and/or intense thunderstorms, is the prime season. 

Sunday night, a flash flood emergency was declared in and around Huntsville, Alabama, where people had to be plucked from flooded cars. Water also got into several homes. 

We're already seeing some pretty big flash floods this week.  On Monday, rain fell at a rate of up to four inches per hour around Joplin, Missouri, and some people had to be rescued from inundated cars. Fox Weather reports. Downtown Seneca, Missouri was also flooded out. 

Flash flooding was reported in Texas, too.

Overnight, severe storms prompted flash flood warnings in central Kansas, where up to 5.5 inches of rain fell and another one to two inches was expected. Parts of the southeastern U.S. and Tennessee Valley are at risk for flash floods today.  

For Wednesday night, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center added a marginal risk for flash flooding in northern New York, all but far southern Vermont and northern New Hampshire. 

The agency said very humid air and a weather disturbance cold cause some instances of local flash flooding. 

Local meteorologists and myself are not too worried about flash flooding tomorrow and tomorrow night. We could easily see some gully washer downpours, but serious flooding looks doubtful. 

Most of us will get a half inch or less of rain Wednesday through Thursday. That doesn't scream "flooding."  But, thunderstorms could dump much more than that in small, localized areas.

Still, this is Vermont, and we have a long history of flash flooding. Our steep terrain in many areas encourages water to rush out of the hills during torrential rains. Climate change has raised the stakes, as downpours in a warmer world tend to be more intense. Warmer air can hold more water. That water can get released in the right conditions. 

Those "right conditions" in Vermont led to severe, destructive and deadly summertime flash floods in 2023 and 2024. Less extensive but still severe flash floods hit parts of the Northeast Kingdom last summer.

As a result, we're all gun shy and a little bit PTSD-wracked when it comes to flash flood risks across the Green Mountain State. Tis the season to keep a close eye on weather forecasts around here, especially if it's really humid and threatening to storm. 

 

June Heat Waves In Vermont Never Used To Be Much Of A Thing. Then Climate Change Came Along

A time/temperature sign in St. Albans, Vermont during
 a record breaking heat wave last June 23 

 With the potential of 90 degree weather coming toward the end of the week, depending on how numerous the showers and storms become, I started looking at June heat waves in Vermont. 

Once upon a time, June heat wasn't really a thing. Sure, it happened once in awhile, but we usually had to wait until July and August to feel the big strong blasts of summer heat. 

Not any more. Climate change apparently has something to say about when we Vermonters experience summer heat. 

The year 1988 seemed to be the beginning of a turning point for June heat in Vermont, at least as measured in Burlington.  On June 15, 1988, it reached 97 degrees in Burlington, breaking what was then the record for the  hottest June temperature on record. 

On June 16, 1994, that record was tied. Then on June 19, 1995, the temperature in Burlington soared to 100 degrees, shattering the June record.

The number of 90+ days in Burlington's June record books changed during that time period. Ninety degree June heat was relatively rare in the  first four decades of the 20th century. Ninety in June happened only 12 times in the 41 years ending in 1941. 

Between 1942 and 1993, 90 degree June heat became more frequent, occurring in 34 out of those 51 years.  Now, the heat hits in almost all Junes. In the 31 years since 1994, we only missed out on 90 degrees in eight Junes.

Another bit of stats, although I know this is already number heavy: In the 87 years ending in 1987, it had only reached 95 degrees three times in June. In a little less than four decades since 1988, it's been 95 degrees 13 times.  

In the 2000s, extreme June heat almost became the norm.   It's been 96 degrees or hotter in all but one of the past five Junes.  Sometimes June heat started in May.   On May 27, 2000, the temperature reached 95 degrees, the hottest May day on record, breaking the old mark by two degrees 

On June 6, 2021, it reached 95 degrees, and on June 7 that year it was 96 which was, at the time the hottest for so early in the season 

I say "at the time," because on June 1, 2023 it reached 96 degrees. 

All this June heat culminated in a heat wave last June. Depending on what part of New England you were in, either June 23 or June 24, 2025 was the hottest June day on record in all six New England states. Each New England state reached at least 100 degrees.

In North Springfield, Vermont, it was 103 degrees, breaking the previous statewide record for June, which had been 101 degrees. Burlington reached 99 degrees on June 23 last year, barely missing the record for the month by one degree. Plattsburgh, New York, at 101 degrees, was among numerous cities in the Northeast that set all-time June records. 

THIS WEEK

If it gets to 90 degrees this week, I doubt we'll see record highs, but of course you never know. You need lots of sinking, hot air to create the clear skies that produce record heat. Instead, this warm spell will be muddled by embedded weather disturbances. Those disturbances will likely create clouds and scattered showers and thunderstorms which could keep the heat down. But not the humidity, of course.

The details: 

Today: Nice! Near 80 degrees, sunny low humidity

Tuesday: Nice! Sunny, with highs in the 80s. Humidity will at least be reasonably.

Wednesday Not so nice. Showers, maybe a rumble of thunder. Cloudy, turning more humid. Highs in the 70s to around 80

Thursday/Friday: Partly cloudy, humid, risk of showers/storms. Highs in the 80s to near 90.

Beyond Friday, the weather models are still arguing among themselves as to what's going to happen. I'll let them fight it out, and provide updates as we get closer to next weekend. It's only Monday, after all. 

I don't know whether we will have extreme heat later this month or not, But climate change has loaded the dice. These are no longer your grandfather's cool, comfortable Vermont summers. 

 

Forecasters Back Off SLIGHTLY From Torrid Vermont Upcoming Week Forecast, But It Will Still Be Hot

Early Sunday afternoon satellite pic shows Vermont
in the middle of a big cloudy patch that will
keep the rest of today cloudy and damp. But
looks at those clear skies to the northwest\
in Ontario and central Quebec. That's our
weather tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Just landed after my return trip from Minnesota, so you saw no morning post today. So I'll try a very late, afternoon attempt. 

As expected, a few scattered strong to severe storms erupted in Vermont yesterday. The worst of them seem to cross central Vermont in a west to east band very roughly about  20 or 30 miles north of Route 4. 

I'm kinda sure there was some tree damage across the middle of Vermont, but the only report of damage I see so far is the several trees fell along Route 73 between Whiting and Sudbury. 

As you'd expect, rainfall was super variable with the scattering of storms yesterday. Many places, as expected got somewhere in the neighborhood of a half inch of rain.

 But there were those torrential downpours, as you'd expect. The biggest totals I saw were  near the Canadian border: 1.85 inches in Montgomery Center, 1.58 inches at Derby Line and 1.54 inches 

Meanwhile, a few towns got seriously cheated. West Windsor reported just 0.05 inches of rain. 

During this morning and early afternoon, a final band of rain was working north to south across Vermont, As you can tell, it's pretty cool today under the clouds and showers and north winds, with most places holding in the 60s as of early afternoon. 

Except for nights and very early mornings at the beginning of the week, this will be last cool weather you'll see for awhile. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Judging from the satellite photos, we won't get much clearing today. Maybe some places will get some sun in the evening. Since it's cool this afternoon, we're set up for a comfortable night.  Lows Monday morning will be in the 40s, with some low 50s in banana belt towns in the Champlain Valley. 

Monday: A beauty. Sunshine, low humidity and highs in the 70s to around 80.

Tuesday: Another nice one. Warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Maybe a couple upper 80s in the warmest valleys. The humidity will stay low.

Wednesday: Here's where trouble starts. Humidity levels will creep up. Forecasters have backed off on the idea of three or four consecutive days near 90 degrees in the warmer valleys. Instead, we'll probably wait for a couple of days for a shot at 90. 

A weather disturbance that was expected to be a nothing burger a few days ago will now have a little oomph when it arrives here. Nothing dramatic, just some showers and maybe some embedded thunder. Highs should still make it into the 80s as it turns noticeably more humid.

Thursday/Friday: These will be the hot days, at least if the forecast holds. It is subject to change. As it is, we might seem some showers and storms both days as highs potentially reach a humid 90 degrees.

Next Weekend.  Frankly, not sure yet. Depends upon whether some cold fronts arrive to rescue us from the humidity or not. Cold fronts would also mean a potential shower risk. But don't make plans based on the weather for next weekend. We really have almost no idea what will happen then

Showers, T-Storms, Few Severe Today In Vermont. Hot Times Ahead For Upcoming Week

Radar showed a batch of mostly light rain moving into 
the state this moving. That  should move out, followed by
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some could
be severe, especially south.  

 Editors Note: Posts might be irregular or short through at least Sunday as I'm traveling. I'll do my best!

OK, Now that my travel plans are out of the way: It's raining a little this morning in Vermont. Or at least parts of the state. 

Last week's weather has made things pretty parched, so we need it. It won't be a blockbuster rainfall for most of us, which is too bad. It won't make up for a dry week, a the upcoming week looks a bit arid, too. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY

The rain this morning is mostly a steady light rain moving in rapidly from New York State. It's zipping along, and should be pretty m much out of the state by early afternoon. Southern Vermont might only get a trace of rain out of this morning's little blip of rain. 

Then things get interesting. We could get some breaks of sun to roil the humid atmosphere a bit. Winds aloft will increase, and another disturbance ahead of a cold front will sweep in during the afternoon. 

The result is a risk of severe thunderstorms. They could happen anywhere in Vermont, but are most likely along and south of Route 4. A broad area from Indiana, Ohio, then through Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the southern half of New England is under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

That slight risk - a level 2 out of 5 alert level - includes southern Vermont.

Yellow area, including southern Vermont is under a 
level 2 out of 5 risk of severe storms today. Dark
green is level 1 out 5 risk. If there are severe
storms in Vermont today, the greatest danger
will be strong winds and lightning. 

That slight risk means there could be scattered instances of storm damage today. The risk is for strong gusty winds. There could be isolated instances of damaging hail, but that's less likely. 

 The rest of the state, along with northern New England and northern New York is under a marginal risk, alert level one out of 5. That means  a risk of isolated storm issues. 

It looks like the greatest risk of storms statewide is between 2 ad 8 p.m. today. You know the drill. 

If you have outdoor plans, keep an eye to the sky and have a way to receive severe storm warnings or other weather advisories. I'd also postpone that hike in the mountains to another day. 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY

The cold front will continue to approach as atmospheric ripples continue ahead of it. That means a continued  good chance of showers overnight tonight, with a few rumbles of thunder, too.

This state of affairs should continue Sunday as the cold front slips through. Most of the rain in the north will be in the morning and early afternoon. Southern Vermont has a better chance of  thunderstorms mixed in with rain and showers, but they don't look like they will be severe. 

It will be much cooler, but not cold, like last weekend. Highs should end up within a few degrees either side of 70.

Forecast total rainfall has increased a bit since yesterday. Because of the thunderstorms, rainfall will be super variable, with some communities not getting much at all, while two town over they have over an inch. 

But in general, now through Sunday, southern Vermont gets a half to a third of an inch of rain, while the northern half gets a half inch, give or take. 

All in all, a fairly unpleasant weather weekend. Sorry about that! But we need what rain we can get, so be thankful for that as your high school graduation picnics turn into downpour soaked dashes indoors. And please don't leave the cake out in the rain. 

HOT TIMES AHEAD

The upcoming week looks interesting, Not in terms of storms, but heat.

Monday will be nice enough, with sunshine low humidity and highs near 80s. Tuesday turns hot, with most of us in the 80s with some towns touching 90. At least the humidity on Tuesday will be low. 

Not so much for the rest of the week. Humidity will rise as the heat continues to build. 

Burlington had a chance Tuesday through Friday of seeing four consecutive days where temperatures get to at least 90 degrees. The National Weather Service is already putting us on alert that this could be a serious hot spell, with serious heat risk, especially for unhealthy people with little or no access to air conditioning. 

As far as rainfall, a weak disturbance embedded in the hot flow of air from the southwest could touch off some scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. But the storms don't look like they'll be particularly widespread. 

The heat and humidity has a good  chance of lasting beyond Friday.  

 

Warm, Dry Vermont Week Yielding To Wet Weekend, But Most Of Us Avoid Heavy Rain.

A thunderstorm looms over an outdoor graduation
ceremony in Orono, Minnesota on Thursday. 
The ceremony was moved indoors as the storm ot
closer. Vermont is line for some possible 
thunderstorms on Saturday. 

 I'm reporting on Vermont weather this morning from a perch in Orono, Minnesota, an outer suburb west of Minneapolis of all places, so if my Green Mountain weather summary seems a bit distant, that's why. 

I'm here in Minnesota for an important graduation. Congratulations Jonas Stengle!

In Vermont, some high clouds came in yesterday, but that didn't prevent temperatures from getting well into the 80s.  We'll have the same situation today. There might be some high clouds, especially north. But we'll also have a good amount of sun, with highs well into the 80s. 

Then, obviously, rain arrives for the weekend. It's a Vermont rule: If you're going to get gorgeous weather, it hits during the week. Usually, Saturday and/or Sunday will bring the rain.

Saturday

It won't rain all the time, but we should  have a near-constant threat of showers and storms. The first batch of weather goes through mostly far northern Vermont with a batch of showers. Some of those showers might have some briefly heavy downpours up near the Canadian border. 

There might be a bit of clearing midday, maybe. That will set the stage for another round of showers and thunderstorms.  While there might be some locally heavy downpours - that's almost always the case during the summer - most of us won't get a huge amount of rain out of this. 

Still, you'll want to keep an eye out for ominous clouds, as a few thunderstorms might get their panties in a twist enough to get pretty strong.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has all Vermont in at least a marginal risk of severe storms Saturday. That's a level one out of five on the alert scale A sliver of far southern Vermont is in a level two slight risk 

The risk isn't higher than that, says the National Weather Service office in South Burlington, because the best ingredients aren't linking up just right. At least as we think now.

The best chance for any bursts of sunshine Saturday would be in southern Vermont. The partially clearing skies would increase the instability in the atmosphere, 

But the best atmospheric dynamics and wind patterns are expected in northern Vermont. If the dynamics and wind patterns were to line up better, wed have a bigger shot at scarier storms

Saturday will be a little cooler under the clouds, but it will be more humid, (If I ruled the language, I would change that to "humider" instead of "more humid," If things were consistent with the language, the sentence would refer either to "cooler but humider air", or "more cool but more humid air."

Whoever invented the English language isn't big on consistency. 

Anyway, back to Vermont weather. Highs Saturday should be within a few degrees withe side of 80.

SUNDAY

Lingering showers rule the Vermont roost Sunday, especially south, Cooler air will be flowing in, but it won't exactly be cold with temperatures up in the 70s. Northern Vermont might tend to start drying out late in the day.

Total precipitation if the forecasts verify will run close to just a quarter inch in southern Vermont to a quarter to a half inch north. As always, a few towns might have heavier rain if they get a direct hit from a thunderstorm or two, 

NEXT WEEK:

The overall weather pattern is a warm one, so the balmy summer weather will continue. It'll be up near 80 Monday, and way up in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Warmer valleys might touch 90 by Wednesday, 

The air will be fairly dry during the first half of the week but tend to turn more humid during the second half,  It'll stay warm to hot, with maybe another 90 degree day in spots Thursday. Maybe next Friday or Saturday, too, who knows? 

June is starting out pretty toasty in the Green Mountain State!