Perfect Summer Vermont Weekend Continues; Deep Heat, Maybe Severe Storms By Tuesday, Tuesday Night

A beautiful blue sky with puffy clouds over St
Albans, Vermont yesterday. It was part of a near-
perfect weather weekend in the Green Mountain State.

 We're halfway through a perfect Vermont summer weekend, at least in terms of weather. 

On Saturday, the temperature was perfect. The humidity was perfect. The scattered puffy clouds were perfect. A pleasant north breeze was perfect. Wildfire smoke in the atmosphere almost entirely dissipated.  

It's been really warm lately, so by comparison, yesterday was actually the coolest day since June 27, at least as measured in Burlington. That "cool" weather involved a warm high of 82 degrees.

Enjoy it while you can. By Tuesday, things could get rough. More on that in a minute.

Meanwhile, if you somehow missed Saturday's weather, we'll do it again today. Details:

TODAY

We started the day with temperatures in the 50s, with upper 40s in the cooler spots. If you didn't sleep well last night, don't blame the weather. It was a perfect summer sleeping night. There's that word again. Perfect. 

The only real difference today is it will be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday. So, low to mid 80s. There might be a little more wildfire smoke in the atmosphere today, compared to yesterday. But it will amount to some haze at times.

Go out there and enjoy any outdoor activity you like. The only thing to watch out for is the sun. You'll need sunscreen.

MONDAY

Here's where the weather starts to go downhill. But just a little. Warm air from the west and south will start to flow in.  By afternoon, highs will get into the mid and upper 80s, maybe even flirting with 90 in the hottest valleys. The humidity will begin to creep up, but it will still be pretty reasonable. 

It should be mostly sunny, though a weak disturbance might touch off a few light showers, mostly in northern Vermont. But the chances of that are low. 

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT

This will be the real trouble day. The first problem will be the heat. We're calling it "jailbreak heat," a term I stole from the National Weather Service in South Burlington. It's "jailbreak"  because a piece of hot air will escape from a terribly torrid heat dome over the northern Rockies. That plume of hot air will be racing east across the far northern Plains, southern Canada and down across New England .

We'll start the day warm, and it will get hotter and hotter as the day goes on and the blast furnace air comes in from the west. 

By late afternoon, almost all of Vermont will be at least 90 degrees. The warmest valleys should make it into the mid-90s.  There's a slight chance that the warmest valleys could be in the 95 to 100 degree range, but statewide, 90 to 95 degrees looks like the safest bet. 

It'll turn more humid, too. But not as humid as in that heat wave that struck at the beginning of the month. The hot air won't have a direct connection to the steamy Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico. But southwest winds will bring in some moisture. 

STORMS?

The next problem with Tuesday will come late in the day, most likely after dark.  A southward moving cold front making its way into the hot air into Quebec will encounter a lot of atmospheric instability.

It looks like a large chunk of southern Quebec faces a nasty severe storm and tornado outbreak on Tuesday. 

By late in the day, that activity will start to cross the border into northern New England, including areas of Vermont near the Canadian border. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction has areas north of Route 2 in a slight risk of severe storms (level 2 out of 5 risk, with maybe a greater risk of high winds. The  rest of the state in a marginal risk (level one out of five).

That's a preliminary forecast. For now, the storms look like they will cross the border from Quebec into Vermont after dark, when the storms would be losing the atmosphere's strongest instability. They might be starting to weaken by then.  But they would still be powerful. 

Or, the storms could show up earlier, when they would be stronger.

In any event, all this is potentially dangerous for the campers enjoying Vermont's forests. Especially if these storms hit at night, when people are sleeping in tents or flimsy RVs. Falling trees in this scenario are obviously dangerous. 

An example of how dangerous could be a 1995 derecho that swept through New York's Adirondack mountains, killing seven people. 

Tuesday night's weather is something we'll really have to keep an eye on. 

Gorgeous Vermont Weekend Underway; Weird Brief Hot Blast Coming; Severe Storms?

Bright pink lilies enjoy the morning sun this morning
in St. Albans, Vermont. The entire weekend is 
set to be sunny and warm. 

The weather in Vermont knows are schedule for now.  We want nice weekends in the summer and now we've got one on our hands.  

We've actually had a fair number of nice weekend days this summer, so we should be pretty happy with this summer.

This weekend still looks like the best one of the summer. Comfortable enough for vigorous activities like hiking to the summit of Camels Hump. 

Warm enough to jump off the rocks at a swimming hole and plunge into the refreshing, hopefully clean water.  Or, pleasant enough to weed the garden, or fall asleep in the hammock after reading a great novel. 

It's weekend weather endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

Today, we're off to a terrific start. As dawn broke this morning, temperatures statewide were in the comfortable 50s, with some low 60s right near Lake Champlain. The strong July sun will get us up to 80 degrees or so this afternoon. We'll see some wildfire smoke in the air, but it shouldn't get so thick to make us choke or worry too much about air quality. 

Humidity is often high in mid-July. Not today, or tomorrow. After the sun sets tonight, the temperature will crash down into the 50s again overnight. Except near 60 again near Lake Champlain. 

Sunday will be another winner. The only difference between today and tomorrow is Sunday will be a bit warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s. The sun will still shine, the humidity will stay low, and a little wildfire smoke will probably linger in the air. 

After The Weekend

After our stellar weekend, the weather will turn interesting during the week, following the general pattern we've seen this summer. 

As mentioned yesterday, a big heat dome is becoming established over the Rockies and northern Plains. There could well be some all-time record high temperatures in Montana, North Dakota and in Canada, parts of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan.  

A renegade piece of that heat is set to escape from the Rocky Mountains, race east over southern Canada and blast down on us by Tuesday. 

We'll start to feel the heat Monday as highs get into the upper 80s. By Tuesday, the brief packet of heat should be here in New England. In Vermont, most of us should be in the 90s again, with the risk of some mid or even upper 90s in the hottest valleys. 

It will turn more humid, but not as steamy as it could possibly get. The air is coming from the dry West, after all. So we won't get the full tropical blast. 

Then things could get really interesting Tuesday night. A cold front will be approaching from Quebec. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has already flagged the risk of severe weather in northern New England later Tuesday or Tuesday night.  It's unusual for New England, at least, for NOAA to sniff this type of thing out days in advance.

It's not definite yet, it's possible nothing will happen. But some forecasters are already throwing around the words "supercell" or "derecho."

We'll keep an eye on this one as get closer to the event. 

Meanwhile, forget about all that. Enjoy this  gorgeous weekend. 

Fourth Year In A Row With Vermont Weather Trouble On July 9 or 10. Next Up, Pleasant, But Maybe Smoky, Then A Hot Flash

Torrential rains in St. Albans, Vermont during a strong
thunderstorm late Thursday afternoon. The same storm
 strengthened as it moved east, eventually causing
 substantial tree and power line damage
in the Northeast Kingdom. Flooding hit central Vermont

 It turns out we had weather trouble in Vermont around July 10 for the fourth  year in a row. 

The trouble hit a little early this year, on July 9, instead of July 10 like we saw in 2023, 2024 and 2025. But yesterday, we had flooding in and around Barre, and thunderstorm wind damage in the Northeast Kingdom. 

The core of the wind damage was in Lyndon and East Burke. Video showed numerous trees down along Route 114.  

Somebody in the video background suggests it was a tornado. Perhaps, but since all the trees appeared to fall in the same direction, at least as seen in the video clip, I suspect intense straight line winds.

Another batch of thunderstorms nearly stalled over central Vermont. It was enough to flood the streets of Barre, again. This was mostly poor drainage flooding and not quite as serious as in recent years. 

In Montpelier, nearly 2.5 inches of rain fell yesterday, including 1.75 inches within two hours. 

I guess we should be grateful over a trend line. The worst flooding hit statewide on July 10, 2023. In 2024, most of the destruction was across a broad band through central Vermont. In 2025, destructive flooding was limited to just parts of the Northeast Kingdom.  And yesterday, almost all of Vermont escaped unscathed, except in the Barre-Montpelier area and a small part of the Northeast Kingdom.

Even better, we're done with the rough weather for a little while, anyway. 

TODAY

It looks like the cold front as of 8 a.m this morning was draped across central Vermont, judging from a line of very light showers drifting southward.  The front is too weak to create any dangerous downpours or high winds. We'll have no major weather today. 

This morning started humid, but light north breezes will slowly dry the moisture out of the air. The sun will break through where it hasn't already, and we should make into the low 80s this afternoon.

WEEKEND

It's still looking like a terrific weekend if you love summer.  The humidity should remain low enough, and afternoon highs will reach the 80s under sunny skies. 

Dimmed sun, though. Smoke from wildfires in Quebec near James Bay will probably drift down into Vermont on those north winds. So the Green Mountains of Vermont might well be hidden by haze. I'm not sure whether we'd have enough smoke to trigger any air quality alerts. but we'll wait for more info on that.

NEXT WEEK

A heat dome is setting up in the western United States which will create record high temperatures in places like Montana and North Dakota, and other states.

A storm way up in central and northern Canada will pull a plume of that hot air eastward, arriving here Monday and Tuesday. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is calling it a "jailbreak heat," as it's escaping the heat dome where it originated. 

We should see highs near 90 on Monday and as high as the mid-90s Tuesday. Considering where the air is coming from, it will be pretty dry air.  The kind that doesn't feel quite as bad as most heat waves, but drains the moisture from your garden plants. You'll need to water.

The heat won't last long. If there's a northward bulge in the jet stream with the heat dome in the West, you need a southward dip in the jet stream in the East.

That will start to set up midweek. A cold front will come through Tuesday night or Wednesday. Probably with little fanfare. It won't get that cold, probably seasonably warm late in the week. 

As always, long range forecasts like that are subject to change. At least we have no scary storms or floods in our immediate future.

This Year, No Repeat Of The Traditional July 10 Vermont Flood Disaster; Hot Weather Continues

Lillies soak up this morning's sun this morning in St.
Albans, Vermont. They'll likely soak up some rain
from showers and storms later today and tonight, 

 It reached 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on Wednesday. the eighth time this year it's been at least 90 degrees. 

Summer is only about half over and already, we're among only 42 years out of the past 127 with that many 90s.  However, we're not on pace for any kind of record. In 1949, Burlington endured 26 days in the 90s.

This is the 12th consecutive year with at least eight days in the 90s.  We hadn't come close to a streak like that in the past. Another little sign that our planet is warm. 

There's a chance it could be 90 degrees today, but I think clouds, showers, thunderstorms and humidity might prevent it from getting that hot. 

We're also coming up on July 10. For three years in a row, starting in 2023, Vermont faced serious flooding on that date. This year, it looks highly unlikely. And if there are any floods, it would happen late this afternoon or evening, not tomorrow.  And more importantly, any water trouble would be very minor. 

Let's explain through the details. 

TODAY

It's going to be pretty hot, humid with a risk of thunderstorms today. The storms will hit mostly the northern half of the state, and not everyone will see a shower or storm. Typical summer weather. 

There's a weak cold front lurking in southern Quebec.  As is often the case with lame summer cold fronts, there's a disturbance out ahead of it known as a pre-frontal trough. 

The pre-frontal trough is often most responsible for severe thunderstorms ahead or a cold front. However, this time, the chances of severe storms are relatively low. 

Clouds creeping in today could reduce instability. There's some smoke in the air, too, which sometimes reduces instability a little. Still, it's humid out there and the day is starting out sunny. 

The bottom line is a few storms could become strong to severe, but it won't be anything widespread like those wild storms on July 1. 

Northwestern Vermont is under a marginal risk of severe storms today. That's level 1 out of 5 alert status. That means maybe isolated severe weather. I think that low-level risk should extent throughout northern Vermont, but that's just my gut feeling.

Given the fact it's humid and getting more humid, some of the storms could produce torrential rains. Those gully washers will be pretty localized.  And they shouldn't last especially long in any one place. I suppose there might be a few minor washouts on some steep gravel driveways and along the edges of gravel roads.

 It's true that NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has northern Vermont under a marginal risk for flash floods, but this won't be a big worry. We're not gearing up for another July 10. (I know it's July 9, but the effects would last into July 10). 

After the shower and storms late this afternoon, we should have a lull before showers and a few storms hit again overnight with the actual cold front. Again, nothing to worry about. Aside from maybe some minor erosion at the edges of a couple roads, we should be OK. 

I just hope I didn't jinx everything by being this reassuring, but I, and the real meteorologists looking at this situation, just don't see any signs to create an alarm over this. 

FRIDAY

The front will continue to move south. Showers will linger during the morning, especially south. But in the afternoon, you'll notice a change in the air as the humidity gradually blows out of the state behind the front. Highs should generally be in the low 80s.

WEEKEND

Friday's cold front sets us up for a fantastic weekend. Probably the best summer weather weekend of the year. We'll have warm daytime highs, comfortable nights and low humidity. And the sun will generously shine both days.  Highs will be near 80 Saturday and in the low to mid 80s Sunday. Overnight lows will be generally between 55 and 62 degrees. 

You can't have absolute perfection, however. We have additions to the smoke being generated by fires in central Canada and the western U.S.  Wildfires have reinvigorated south of James Bay, Canada and new ones have broken out in northern Quebec.

At the very least, there will probably be some haze in the air over the weekend. It's hard to say at this point how thick that might become. We'll keep you posted as we get closer to the weekend. 

NEXT WEEK PEEK

The first half of next week should be hot again. A heat dome in the middle of the nation will temporarily stretch eastward, bringing the hot air in.  The heat might be interrupted by disturbances carrying showers and storms, but that's still iffy.

After midweek, the heat dome will move west. That will open the door to a potentially fairly long spell of cool air that would start midweek and go on for possibly several days. 

Green Mountains Of Vermont To Often Fade Behind A Smoky Haze For The Rest Of Summer. A Climate Change Story

Smoke obscures the view along Lake Champlain 
last summer, July 26, 2025.

Vermont's first air quality alert of the summer went into effect this past Sunday. Thankfully, the bad air didn't turn out to be quite as bad as feared.  

The wildfire smoke that was approaching the state from southern Quebec dissipated more and sooner than expected, leaving us with relatively safe air, although it was kind of hazy. 

Get used to the haze. It's going to be with us much of the rest of the summer. And probably the first half of autumn. 

I'm sure we will see more air quality alerts before mountains snows in Canada and the West finally snuff out the fires. 

Huge wildfires are burning in the U.S. West. There's an enormous cluster of fires burning west of Hudson Bay, Canada. More fires are raging in northern Canada. All that smoke has to go somewhere. 

Often, that pollution will end up in the eastern United States, including here in Vermont.  That fact is always a bummer for me. 

During June, North American wildfires were not especially extensive. Which left us with plenty of days in which we could gaze out at the Green Mountains of Vermont and they were.....green.  Luscious, rich, elegant, gorgeous green as far as the eyes could see. All this under a deep, pure blue sky flecked with puffy white clouds. You know, the iconic view of a Vermont summer.  

Those days of clear air will now become much fewer and further between for the rest of the summer.  

Until recent years, wildfire smoke in Vermont hadn't been a thing. Back in the 1950s, 60s and 70s, we did had a lot of "Those Lazy, Hazy, Crazy Days of Summer," as Nat King Cole sang in a 1963 hit. Especially haze. That was mostly ickiness from auto exhaust and factory smokestacks to Vermont's south and west during mid-20th century heat waves. 

The Clean Air Act removed a lot of the haze. Not all of it, but it was an improvement. Then, in the past decade or so,  wildfires around the world, including in North American started getting worse. The hotter world dries out the forests earlier in the spring than they once did. Those forests keep getting more and more parched as sumner goes on.    

So, many of the forests went poof.   

Forest fires now burn more than twice as much tree cover as they did two decades ago, according to University of Maryland researchers. 

All those fires spew smoke, obviously. Per-person exposure to wildlife smoke in the United States was four times higher during 2020-24 on average each year, than during 2006-2019, according to Climate Central. 

The haze from these huge fires often ends up engulfing much if not all of the United States, including here in Vermont. 

Summertime air quality alerts in the Green Mountain State used to be a rarity.  But that's changed. Most recent summers have featured many hazy, acrid days. A few days in the summer nowadays are actually dangerously polluted. 

Even if the pollution isn't enough to prompt those alerts in our climate changed world, the smoke spoils the view.  The mountains, especially those in the distance, fade into a bluish, grayish murk. Some days, the smoke is high overhead, so the mountains still looks vivid and green. But the sky overhead is depressing. Instead of a deep blue, it's an almost colorless, weak =pale grey-blue. 

That looks like Vermont's future for the rest of the summer.  

That's not to say every day will feature haze. Air currents can still thread the needle between the wildfires and the smoky areas to deliver delightfully clear, refreshing air. Or, on some days, the smoke will be thin enough to be just an accent, giving the mountains just an added shade of blue mixed with the green. 

At least the sunrises and sunsets will be more spectacular as the smoke brings out the reds and oranges in the clouds. 

As I write this Wednesday morning, the sky overhead is blue enough, but the distant Adirondacks are barely visible through an off-blue haze the color of exhaust from a malfunctioning 1970s-era Buick.  

Climate change isn't only about heat waves and weird weather. It chips away at our health, our atmosphere, our way of life, our well being.  I just wish the Powers That Be would recognize that when they complain about a lousy view of the mountains during their Vermont summer vacations  

Strange, Sharp Line Between Rain and Clear Skies In Vermont This Morning, Another Hot Spell Looms

A tale of two Vermonts on this morning's satellite
photos. Thicker clouds in central Vermont denote
a band of moderate to briefly heavy rain. 
Meanwhile, northern Vermont is in the clear. 

 Another late start for my morning report as I'm just back from my trip to Maryland. 

Not long after I finally got my hutt out of bed,   I found quite a difference in the weather across Vermont. If you were in Rutland or White River Junction, it was chilly with a soaking rain around 9 a.m. Temperatures were only around 60 at 9 a.m.  

Drive a short distance north to Middlebury and the sun was partly out. By the time you got to Burlington, it was clear blue skies (aside from a slight hint of wildfire smoke) and it was a nice 74 degrees. 

The rain got a little further north than we thought it might yesterday.  That band of moderately heavy rain in central Vermont surprised me a bit. But at least it wasn't the flash-flood producing downpours that hit parts of the Mid-Atlantic states. 

REST OF TODAY

Here in Vermont, things should even out a little today, but it will take its time doing so. The north will stay generally sunny, while the rain in southern Vermont will slowly sink south into Massachusetts. It might take a good part of the day for the rain to finally end near the Massachusetts border.  

Because of the clouds in the south, northern Vermont will end up being the warm spot. It'll get into the low 80s there, while southern Vermont stays in the 70s. 

WEDNESDAY

Another hot spell arrives, but this one will be short and sweet - not as hot as the last go around, and it will only be a couple days' worth. Tomorrow will be sunny and in the upper 80s, with a few spot 90 degree temperatures here and there. 

The humidity will be noticeable, but not nearly as bad as it was a few days ago. Dew points should be in the low to mid 60s, not 70s. So it should be pretty tolerable if you take it slow.

THURSDAY

Another hot one, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms comes into play. Many of us in Vermont should make it to 90 or so. The dew point should get up into the low 70s, so it will feel miserable.  A cold front approaching from Canada should spark some afternoon and evening showers and storms. It's a little early to figure out whether any storms will be strong or severe, but the possibility is there. Stay tuned!

FRIDAY

The cold front continues to stagger through Vermont. Early guesses suggest the morning could be rainy, but we could salvage a decent afternoon if it comes through quickly enough. Especially north. We are't expected all that much rain from this, except in local torrential downpours. 

NEXT WEEKEND:

Potentially very nice after the cold front. It will stay warm with highs in the 80s, but with lower humidity. There's a bunch of wildfires burning in central and northern Canada which means we could see some smoke. 

I'll have a fuller report on a potentially smoky rest of the summer, hopefully later today. 

Dry-Ish Week Continues In Vermont. Past Two Months Have Been Mostly Wet, Giving Us A Drought Cushion

Rain falls from thunderstorm clouds over Lake Champlain
as the sun shines through the rain, Photo looking west
from St. Albans, Vermont on July 10, 2025

The first part of summer in Vermont was wet, but that seems to be sputtering, at least for now. 

The last rains in the Green Mountain State were some scattered showers and thunderstorms central and south on July 4. Northwest Vermont has been dry for several days now. 

The storm that's soaking and/or will soak the Mid-Atlantic states and far southern New England won't really be a factor in Vermont. 

Forecast rainfall far south is now only expected to be a quarter inch at best. Not the half inch to an inch we previously thought might happen. That southern Vermont rain, however light, should come through later today through tomorrow morning. 

There's still a chance the storm could jog north, but don't bet the farm on that. 

Except for scattered sprinkles this afternoon, no rain is forecast after this southern Vermont episode until later Thursday and Friday when a weak cold front is expected to approach and then pass through. 

Although we could end up with some locally heavy downpours with that front, in general, rainfall isn't looking that impressive with that front, at least for now.

The National Weather Service in South Burlington
released this map today showing most of 
Vermont has had above normal rainfall over 
the last two months. Yellow area are at
least two inches above normal. Orange areas
are at least four inches on the plus side 

I'm not really worried about drought. I won't be unless weeks go by without much rain. 

These dry spells happen almost every July. And the dry weather will reduce moisture in the ground somewhat. That drying would slightly lessen the risk of flash flooding if torrential rains hit later this summer. 

But this week's dry spell hits as the last vestiges of last summer's dryness finally dissipates in Vermont. 

 The latest U.S. Drought Report, issued last Thursday, had only the tiniest stripe of Vermont encompassing just 1 percent of the state right along the Massachusetts border as "abnormally dry."  

That's the best we've been since at least the late spring of 2025.

Abnormally dry means it's sort of close to drought, but not really there. But overall, Vermont is super lucky. Judging from the latest Drought Monitor map, the only states doing as well with moisture as Vermont are Ohio, Indiana and maybe Michigan.

Rainfall for all of Vermont except parts of the far south has been above normal for the past two months. Some areas north are two inches on the plus side. This all erased lingering drought in eastern Vermont. 

Drought, or at least the maldistribution of rainfall,  has really been a thing in the United States this year. And the shifts in particular areas between flooding and drought and flooding again have been wild. 

Parts of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland were in pretty steep droughts prior to the deluges causing flash floods there this week, if you want an example

A huge El Nino is developing, which will really keep the weather whacky here in Vermont and in the rest of the world through the next year or so. Even wackier than the climate-changed weather weirdness we've already experienced in recent years.

In general, strong El Ninos cause very warm and dry late summers and autumns here in Vermont, though there's no guarantee that will happen, There's always exceptions. But for now, we can just hope for the increasingly rare type of Goldilocks summer in the Green Mountain State, not too dry, not too wet, not too hot, not too cold. 

The rest of this week will be sort of an imperfect Goldilocks type of period, so I guess we should all enjoy that.