Surprisingly Heavy Vermont Rainfall Raising Some Flood Concerns.

Just a few hours after the main band of strong 
thunderstorms departed on Thursday, the first in
a series of rain showers arrived that evening, as
seen here in St Albans. Several rounds of showers,
some heavy have come through since then. More
showers and possible downpours are
due today and Sunday.

An odd risk of some scattered flooding as developed in northern Vermont despite cool northwest winds that usually prevent that sort of thing. 

That big storm we had Thursday, the one that gave Vermont two tornadoes and other damaging wind storms, is  now lumbering around eastern Quebec into the Canadian Maritime provinces. 

 The storm is sending bands of showers southeastward out of the Canadian Maritimes into mostly northern and central Vermont. 

Rain has been maldistributed in Vermont most of this month anyway. Northern Vermont, especially the Northeast Kingdom, has been getting lots of rain. The southeast corner of Vermont, which was still facing lingering dryness from last year's drought, has not gotten all that much rain at all.

During Thursday's storm, the Northeast Kingdom was drowned again. Several towns in north central and Northeast Vermont received more than two inches of rain from Thursday's storms. Meanwhile, the southeast corner of the state had some damaging thunderstorms Thursday, but they were quick hitters that only deposited a third to a half inch of rain. 

Yesterday, bands of rain, some of it heavy, sank slowly southward through the northern half of Vermont. Each individual shower in the band moved fast, but the showers were all following one another, like boxcars on a freight train, so surprisingly heavy rains fell. Southern Vermont got nothing.

Through midnight last night, Burlington has already received 4.3 inches of rain so far this month. The normal for the entire month of June is 4.26 inches, so we're already above normal for June. More rain fell early today. Some of it was heavy. 

Around 1:30 a.m. today, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington issued a flood warning  for much of Chittenden County, parts of Addison County, and the western slopes of the Green Mountains roughly between the Middlebury Snow Bowl an Smuggler's Notch due to a heavy period of overnight rain. 

The warning has since expired, and I haven't seen any flood reports yet, but I image some steep gravel roads or driveways might have suffered some damage.  

Usually, the amount of rain that falls in this type of weather situation with a west to northwest wind is quite light. But the disturbance rotating around the backside of that storm and into northern New England are pretty dynamic and energetic, and able to produce some locally heavy rains. 

TODAY

An interesting satellite photo shows a band of
heavy showers across north central Vermont Friday
while the south remained mostly clear. Those
showers produced locally heavy rain. 

This state of affairs will continue today. One area of showers was coming through northern Vermont as of 7:30 this morning. 

It contained brief downpours but the area of rain wasn't big or intense enough to set off any flooding. But it kept wetting the soils and helping rivers stay elevated. 

If we get more downpours today, I don't expect any serious river flooding, but there could be some local washouts, erosion things like that. 

The larger rivers are running high, which should make you think twice about taking a kayaking trip along those waterways. 

More disturbances will rotate through today. It'll be rather cloudy, especially north, but enough sun will get through to increase the instability in the air. This will create numerous showers and garden variety thunderstorms, but some of them might contain heavy rain. 

In general northern Vermont will see between a third and three quarters of an inch of rain today. But places in the mountainous terrain mostly north of Route 2 could see locally more than that, which could trigger isolated instances of flash flooding today. 

Highs will only be in the upper 60s and low 70s under the clouds and showers.

SUNDAY

Same old, same old. More rounds of showers and storms, mostly central and north. Highs will be a little warmer with temperatures getting into the 70s for most places. It'll still be a few degrees cooler than average. 

Once again, some showers or storms could produce some downpours in the northern mountains, so isolated flash flooding is possible again. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't worry about flash flooding tomorrow, but the ground is so saturated in the north that it could happen. Like today, if any flooding happens, it will be very localized. This weekend will be no means be a replay of the horrible summer floods in 2023 and 2024.

Rainfall this morning through Sunday evening will range from two inches or a little more in a couple spots in northern Vermont to less than a tenth of an inch near the Massachusetts border. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor lists an area of Vermont south and east of a line from Bennington to roughly White River Junction as abnormally dry, so the rain misses down there are annoying. But there's hope.

MONDAY

A small, fast moving but very wet little storm is forecast to scoot by to the south of Vermont on Monday. There's still some questions about how far north its heavy rain will extend. But chances are far southern Vermont could receive a really good soaking out of this. 

If everything works out right, Bennington and Windham counties could receive a couple inches of rain ou of this little storm. 

Amounts will taper off the further north you go.  This could change, but central Vermont could get moderate amounts of rain out of Monday's system. The sopping wet north would only get a little bit of rain. Which is great because that scenario would mean no risk of additional flooding. 

Long range forecasts can never be trusted, but predictions through the end of the month in indicate a slow warming trend and frequent chances of showers and thunderstorms through June 30 

TWO Tornadoes Struck Vermont On Thursday. The National Weather Service Gives Us The Details

Items scattered after yesterday's tornado
in Woodstock, Vermont. Two tornadoes
touched down in the state Thursday. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington broke some news this afternoon: There were actually two tornadoes in Vermont Thursday. 

We already knew about the one that hit the western part of Woodstock, Vermont. But it turns out another tornado hit an area near and along York Hill Road in the Addison County town of Lincoln. 

The Addison County tornado doesn't come as a complete surprise. Meteorologists tracked a rotating thunderstorm that felled trees in the Middlebury are, though those winds are not believed to be tornadic. The rotation seemed to intensity near Bristol which is very close to Lincoln, so it's not entirely surprising there was a tornado there. 

WOODSTOCK

The tornado in Woodstock was a high end EF-1 tornado with top winds of 100 mph, according to the National Weather Service office in South Burlington. I traveled 1.34 miles along Route 4, mostly in the valley. It had a maximum width of 550 yards and was on the ground for just three minutes.

As we've seen in photographs and video, the tornado felled or snapped a large number of trees and caused roof damage and damage to solar panels. 

LINCOLN

The Lincoln tornado was actually a little stronger than the one in Woodstock with top winds of 105 mph. Again, that's a high-end EF-1 tornado

But the Lincoln tornado had a much shorter path and a shorter life. It only traveled 0.31 miles and had a path 200 yards wide. This tornado blew through an area of forest before sputtering out in a ravine. 

I suppose it's possible other tornadoes touched down in Vermont Thursday but I'm not aware of any investigations or areas that seem like they were obviously hit by a twister. There was a lot of wind damage, especially in southeast Vermont. 

We know it's unusual to have a tornado in Vermont. It's really odd to have two on the same day, or even the same year. There was another tornado in Williamstown on April 16, so we're up to the three in a year,

That doesn't break any records for the most Vermont twisters in a single year.

  The year 1962 seems to be the biggest twister year in Vermont. Three  tornadoes touched down across northern Vermont on May 20 that year. 

Two unusual morning tornadoes hit Windsor County on July 9, 1962. more tornadoes touched down on July 9, 1962. One of them traveled 16 miles between Chester and Weathersfield, according to the Vermont Weather Book. Another traveled five miles near Springfield, Vermont, then it crossed into New Hampshire and traveled three more miles. 

That said, there is a tendency for tornadoes to be moving east and north out of the Great Plains tornado alley, likely due to climate change. The Northeast has seen an increased number of twisters in recent years and Vermont might be seeing a piece of that. 

Of course, another factor is that some Vermont tornadoes in the past might have been missed. Everybody has smart phones. Everybody is on social media. New of weird storm damage spreads fast nowadays. Some of those reports result in investigations and confirmed tornadoes. 

The National Weather Service will likely release a much more detailed analysis of the tornadoes and the other instances of severe weather Vermont saw on Thursday. That analysis should be out within a few weeks. 

 

Likely Woodstock, Vermont Tornado To Be Investigated Today, More Inclement, But Not Violent Weather Due

Trees ripped apart on a Woodstock, Vermont hillside
after a likely tornado hit on Thursday. 
Photo from WCAX via Facebook

 Thanks to the fact that everyone has a camera and local TV stations are pretty aggressive when it comes to covering rare, violent weather in Vermont, we're now pretty confident that whatever hit Woodstock, Vermont yesterday was probably a tornado. 

Drone video from Henry's Weather Service shows trees snapped off halfway up, and many other trees felled in varying directions, which are telltale signs of a tornado. 

Video obtained from Tiffany LaRocque taken from inside Mountain Creamery in Woodstock shows intense winds and rain on the edge of the tornado. Trees were falling and the parking lot was full of vehicles as people traveling along Route 4 took refuge there as driving conditions became impossible. 

About 100 people were affected by the probably tornado on the western side of town, WPTZ reports. Thankfully, we have no reports of injuries, which is pleasantly surprising, given how much traffic there usually is on Route 4 where the probably tornado crossed. 

The tornado missed the historic central village of Woodstock, which is a world-renowned tourist hub. Initial reports indicate only minor tree damage in the village center. 

Reports are that National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington will head to Woodstock, probably today, to confirm whether this was a tornado.  If that analysis happens, we'll learn how strong the tornado was and how long and wide the path was.

Judging from the drone video, the path of the tornado looked a little longer than most Vermont tornadoes. Twisters in the Green Mountain State tend to touch down and lift almost immediately. 

I'm not sure on the strength of the tornado, but judging from photos and that drone video, I'd say it was an EF-1, which would mean winds of 86 to 110 mph. 

Once the National Weather Service offers a report on the Woodstock storm, I'll write up a new post with the updates.

Heading east from Woodstock, there was additional severe damage. In Quechee, Vermont, a row of large willow trees on a golf course fell. They all went down in the same direction, suggesting straight line wind damage. 

There was also extensive damage in Hartford, Vermont, where a lot of trees fell. 

Nearly 4,000 Vermont homes and businesses were still without power this morning, mostly in southeastern Vermont. Londonderry had 1,100 of those outages, suggesting something nasty rolled through that town yesterday. 

This morning, other trouble spots popped up in northern Vermont, near the Canadian border. The Barton River at Coventry and the Missisquoi river near North Troy were at minor flood stage. Heavy rains yesterday fell atop soils soaked by very heavy rains that hit up there on Sunday. 

We had reports of a lot of street flooding Thursday in Newport and Middlebury. Probably other towns experienced that, too. 

Rainfall was quite heavy in many spots. Burlington had 1.11 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.54 inches. A full report on how much rain fell in specific towns will become available later this morning. 

WHAT'S AHEAD?

Thankfully, we're done with the violent weather at least for awhile, but conditions will be unsettled and wet at times. Northern Vermont in particular is in for some showery weather this weekend. 

The out of season, strong low pressure system that gave Vermont the rough weather yesterday is meandering through Quebec. It's rotating little disturbances through here and will continue to do so through the weekend. 

That means frequent bursts of rain,  especially north. Total rainfall through Sunday night will be near an inch over the northern Green Mountains. In most valley towns north of Route 2,  a half to three quarters of an inch will come down between now and Monday morning.   

The rainfall will taper to a quarter inch in central Vermont and less than a tenth of an inch in far southeast Vermont. A  few garden variety thunderstorms and downpours will probably mix in, so a few towns will get more rain than the rest of Vermont as a result. 

A few daily details: 

Today

Mostly cloudy and breezy with west to southwest winds gusting to 25 or 20 mph. Most of the afternoon showers and garden variety thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be north of Route 2, but some will drift into central Vermont by very late afternoon or the first half of tonight. A few storms might have briefly heavy downpours, but not enough to cause any flooding or anything like that. 

Highs should reach the low and mid 70s in most valleys

Saturday

Probably the worst day of the bunch. Northern areas will see very little sun and frequent showers. Southern valleys will see some sun, but also a risk of a shower. It will be quite cool for the season with highs in the 60s north, with low to mid 70s southern valley floors. 

Hikers should be aware that summits will be wet and cold tomorrow with wind chills in the 40s. If you insist on hiking, it won't be a summertime activity. Dress accordingly. 

Sunday

More showers and garden variety thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 70s, give or take. 

 

Late Afternoon Vermont Storm Update. Possible Tornado In Woodstock; Severe Threat Is Over, But It Will Stay Showery For Days

Weather radar in Vermont looks really busy shortly 
before 1 p.m. as a line of thunderstorms was passing 
through. The irregular yellow rectangles are severe
storm warnings, and there has been reports of wind
damage these storms across various parts of Vermont.

That line of storms blasted through Vermont as expected. One tornado might have touched down in Woodstock. That's being investigated.  

Some of the stronger storms did put up a spin, so they got close.  The storm in Woodstock particularly showed rotation.  

The severe thunderstorm warnings were mostly in central and southern Vermont. Many of the warnings had enhanced wording that mentioned that tornadoes can form quickly out of severe thunderstorms. 

The wording was added because radar indicated some rotation in the storms, but National Weather  Service meteorologists didn't think a tornado seemed imminent. 

There were some reports of damage. A tree fell on some power lines along Pond Road on the Fairfield/Swanton town line, early this afternoon, but the road was soon reopened. 

In Woodstock, where the possible tornado touched down, numerous trees were sheared off on a hillside and part of a small barn was ripped away. 

Elsewhere, a large tree snapped off and several other tree were damaged in East Pittsford, not far north of Rutland. Power lines and at least one tree was reported down in East Barre. Numerous trees, branches and wires were down in Hartford, Vermont. 

Trees and power lines were also reported down in Williamstown, Lincoln, Middlebury and Danby.

The number of Vermont power outages zoomed upward to over 21,000, mostly in southern and eastern parts of the state, as that's where the thunderstorms were most intense.  

I'm sure more reports of storm damage will come in as the storms depart.  If any damage reports pique the interest of the National Weather Service, they'll send personnel over to determine whether it was a tornado or straight line winds. I suspect a meteorologist might pay a visit to Woodstock, but that has not been established yet. 

The tornado watch that was in effect across Vermont has expired.as o 3 p.m. A tornado watch continued in far southern Vermont as of 3:45, but that probably will have expired by the tine you read this.  The threat of severe weather is over in Vermont.

A tornado watch remained in effect across New Hampshire and western Maine as the line of severe storms continued on thorough that area. 

One flash flood warning was issued in Vermont, in northwestern Bennington County. That area got a ton of rain Sunday, and another one to there inches fell in a short period of time today. So I'm sure some gravel roads and driveways suffered some damage in that area.

WHAT'S NEXT?

The wind advisory is still in effect.  The gusts weren't as bad as expected ahead of the thunderstorms, though Bennington did gust to 44 mph this morning. Strong southwest winds were blowing in central and western New York, gusting over 50 mph in spots. 

Some of those southwest winds are coming  into Vermont but they shouldn't be as bad as in New York. Still, some gusts over 30 mph might happen. A few areas in the eastern slopes of the Green mountains especially in southern Vermont could see gust to 40 or 45 mph. We'll have some isolated additional cases of trees blowing over and widely scattered power outages because of this. 

As of 3:30 p.m, there was an odd line of thunderstorms in northwestern New York on up into Montreal. They were heading east. If they hold together, they'll make it into northern Vermont late this afternoon and this evening. They might contain lightning and brief downpours if the hold together, but I don't expect anything severe out of them. 

Also, a new downpour was developing for some reason over the middle of Lake Champlain and was headed into Chittenden County as of 4 p.m. 

We'll have cool, showery weather through the weekend, but it won't rain all the time. Best chances of showers are north and mountains. Some areas of southeast Vermont might only get a sprinkle or two out of this. 

 

44 mph gust Bennington 11 a.m. 

 

Rare Tornado Watch In Effect For Vermont/New York Today: High Winds, Then Severe Storms, Some Twisters Possible

UPDATE: 10:30 a.m.

Here's a weather map you don't see 
every day. The greatest chances of
tornadoes today, according to NOAA
are along the Gulf Coast and in 
Vermont (brown shading). 
Still, the risk of a twister is very low
and if severe storms develop today
the trouble would probably come
from intense straight line winds

A rare tornado watch is in effect for Vermont and much of New York.

The tornado watch remains in effect until 3 p.m. It actually covers all of Vermont and most of New York State.'

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, strong winds aloft caused by that intense winter like storm will increase the risk of intense winds with the storms, 

Because winds are changing direction in different levels of the atmosphere, some storms could start to rotate, which helps explain why there could be some brief tornadoes in New York or Vermont. 

Already, one tornado warning has been issued in western New York and there are a bunch of severe thunderstorm warnings out there. 

Another unusual thing is the timing. Most severe storm outbreaks peak in the late afternoon and evening, But this storm's cold front is coining earlier. 

And the atmospheric dynamics are so great that severe thunderstorms and even isolated tornadoes can develop in the late morning and early afternoon.

The main threat is strong straight line winds from the storms, by the way. The chances of a tornado are still low, but obviously there. 

Aside from the severe weather threat, winds are increasing in Vermont ahead of the storms as of 10 a.m so scattered  power outages are likely to develop over the next few hours. Even before any thunderstorms get here. 

Definitely be weather aware today and heed any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. There's a chance some of these storms might end up being more intense than our typical summer windbags, 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

So far, our storm is playing out as expected here in Vermont, but some surprises might still be in store.

Whatever happens, this will be one of Vermont's nastiest weather days of the summer. 

 A swath of rain, some of it moderate to heavy, was moving through the Green Mountain State as of 8:30 a.m.  Judging from weather radar, the steady rain will soon turn showery, with frequent downpours mixed with brief breaks. 

WIND

The showers will tend to diminish for a relatively brief period later this morning. That's when the wind will really kick in. 

The wind advisory for gusts to 40 to 55 mph is still in effect. It covers all of Vermont except the Connecticut River Valley south of roughly Wells River. 

We'll see some power outages blossom here and there as some trees give up the ghost with the onslaught of winds. 

As I keep saying, winds of that magnitude almost never happen in the summer. When we get this type of storm in the winter, when they're more common,  the wind passes pretty easily through bare branches so it's not as much of a problem. 

Leafed out trees are heavier, and the leaves act as little sails to tug at the trees. In many places, the soil has gotten pretty wet, making it easier to uproot trees when they tilt in the wind. 

This won't exactly be a huge destructive storm like a hurricane, but we'll lose a few trees and branches. 

Strongest winds still look like they'll hit the northern Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Lake Champlain should be pretty wild with two to four foot waves, maybe even a bit higher than that on the broad lake during the worst of the wind. 

STORMS

The thunderstorm outlook for this afternoon is still challenging. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 out of 5 alert - for severe storms today. 

And here's a new twist. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the two places in the nation with the highest chances of tornadoes today are parts of the Gulf Coast, and Vermont (along with eastern New York and western New Hampshire).

Granted, it's still a very low chance, but not quite as low as we usually see during severe storm risk days.  Usually, when I mention a very low risk of  tornado, it means a 2 percent chance of seeing a twister with 25 miles of your location.

This time, it's a 5 percent chance of seeing a tornado with 25 miles of your location. Those are still low odds, but not as low as it could be. 

The SPC says some low top rotating supercells could get going  in our atmosphere today. But the biggest threat is some storms grabbing some of the odd, high speed air flowing a few thousand feet overhead and bringing those winds to the surface in a few locations. 

If storms develop this afternoon, they'll move rapidly. Storm intensity will probably change quickly, one way or the other, as well. That means you'll get little or no advance warning when they approach.  If you see dark clouds to the west, it'll be best if you get inside a sturdy building quickly, even if there is no severe storm warning in effect at that moment. 

Severe storms in Vermont are NOT a foregone conclusion, however. Maybe the winds aloft could be actually too strong for big thunderstorms to develop. Especially since this morning's rain and a warm layer of air high up in the atmosphere might prevent tall thunderstorms clouds from forming. 

But I wouldn't relax about it. I know we didn't get the predicted severe weather this past Sunday. But this is a completely different weather setup than we had on Sunday, so the outcome on what might happen will also be completely different. 

If we don't get any severe storms, great! But be prepared, because a few towns - not all of us but a fe towns - could really get nailed with nasty, damaging thunderstorm winds. 

The severe storm threat should be over by this evening

FLOODING

Despite the bursts of heavy rain, I'm not too concerned about any flooding. Everything is just moving along too fast. Downpours won't linger over one area too long. Even if we get severe thunderstorms, they will produce torrential downpours that won't last long 

Still, there's a chance that a couple spots could get such a gully washer that a gravel road or two could see damage. The risk is quite low, but there. I notice there is a flood watch in northern New Hampshire. Strong winds hitting the White Mountains is causing the air flow to rise violently, which could set off some nasty downpours there. 

BEYOND TODAY

I won't get into much detail here, because we have our hands full with today. Tomorrow will actually be OK, with some sun, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers or maybe a garden variety thunderstorm. It'll still be quite breezy, but not downright windy like today. Highs will get well into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday look worse, with showers and garden variety thunderstorms  likely, especially north. It'll be cool, too, with highs Saturday in the 60s to low 70s and readings just a couple degrees higher Sunday. 

Valleys in southern Vermont will probably eek out some decent weather over the weekend with a lower chance of showers and more breaks of sun.

A risk of rain and showers will continue into next week, but temperatures will moderate to near normal late June levels by the middle of the week. We hope. 

Wednesday Evening Storm Update: A Very Gusty Thursday, Severe Storms Still A Threat

I'm considering laying the umbrella on its side and securing
some of the outdoor furniture on my St. Albans, Vermont 
deck given the wind advisory in effect for tomorrow.

 Just a quick update on our weird storm coming in tomorrow. 

The main news is the wind advisory in effect for most of Vermont with just the lower Connecticut River Valley not in the alert zone. Winds could gust as high as 45 to 55 mph in spots. The areas expected the strongest winds are the northern Champlain Valley, the western slopes of the Green Mountains and the northern slopes of the Adirondacks. 

The winds will be strongest probably between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m., with a second surge in northern New York between 3 and 8 p.m. This evening would be a great time to get your deck and lawn furniture to a secure location. 

As I mentioned yesterday, strong winds of this type happen occasionally in the winter. But they're rare this time of year. Trees are leafed out. Each leaf acts like a little sail and will tug the trees sideways in the wind. Some trees will fall. I'm sure we'll see some power outages here and there tomorrow.

Strong low pressure passing by near Ottawa will drive these winds.  In the summer months, this type of thing happens less than once every decade. 

The other problem is the risk of severe thunderstorms. This risk is still iffy. The strong winds aloft high above us might help blow wannabe storms apart, or make them worse. That's an oversimplified description but it about covers it. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has Vermont under a slight risk level 2 out of 5 alert for severe storms tomorrow. 

NOAA has added a very, very low chance of brief twisters in the Connecticut River Valley and in New Hampshire.

If we do see any severe storms, they'll come through between about noon and 5 p.m. 

Total rainfall still looks like it will be about three quarters of an inch or so. Strong winds aloft smacking into the mountain might create a rain "shadow" in parts of the Champlain Valley where only maybe a half inch will fall.  Flooding looks really unlikely at this point. 

Full update will come in the beginning of the chaos tomorrow morning. 

A Small Storm Chance Today Followed By Weird, Stormy Vermont Day Tomorrow

Much like this past Sunday, much of the Northeast
including Vermont is in a level two out of five risk
for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (yellow
shading). Whether we get severe storms 
tomorrow depends on whether building storms
can grab high speed air screaming overhead.

 Yesterday was another gorgeous day in Vermont, although a couple late afternoon and evening showers and storms in the Adirondacks. 

Now, we're gearing up for another weird storm in Vermont. It's the "winter storm" I talked about yesterday. More on that  mess in a minute, but let's just look at today's forecast first. Just so we can relax a bit

TODAY

It'll generally be a not bad day. It started off gorgeous with blue skies and in some areas, a nice breeze.

The clouds will tend to increase today, and a couple showers or thunderstorms might pop up this afternoon. Many of us will stay dry, but others will have one or two wet periods. Not a washout at all. Highs should flirt with 80 degrees today. 

THURSDAY 

Kind of a complicated mess of a day with gusty winds, bursts of rain and the risk of severe thunderstorms. 

Our winter-like storm looks like it will set off a nasty tornado and severe thunderstorm outbreak across Illinois and Indiana today. By tomorrow morning, the storm should be somewhere in the general vicinity of Ottawa. 

As I mentioned yesterday, storm systems, if they exist at all in the summer, are almost always very weak. This will be a strong one, the kind of storm you see pretty often in the winter, when storms tend to be a lot more energetic 

In general, the lower the air pressure, the stronger the storm. This one looks like it might have a barometric pressure below 990 millibars, which is near record territory for June. Since the storm will be passing so close to Vermont, we might  have barometer readings that might be close to record lows.

But that's not what we have to worry about. 

The problem with this storm will be wind. We'll have just the regular strong winds that a strong low pressure system stirs up, and the possibility of even more damaging winds with a few strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms. 

Wind

In the summer, since storm systems are weak, we almost never had strong, gusty winds, except of course in thunderstorms. And those thunderstorm winds only cover a small fraction of the state when they do occur.

With our strong storm, it will be windy almost everywhere in Vermont tomorrow. Gusts will reach 35 to 40 mph at times across most of the state, with locally higher winds of up to 45 or 50 mph in a couple spots.  

Those kinds of gusts hit all the time in the winter when the trees are leafless. But now, the trees are heavy with leaves. Each leaf will act like a little sail tugging at trees as the winds blow through. That means a few trees and branches might give up the ghost and crash to the ground. 

Some of those trees will take down power lines. This won't be an anywhere near a blackout situation, but a few scattered power outages seem possible.  I'd stay off of Lake Champlain, too. The broad lake should have at least two to four foot waves, which isn't great for small boats. 

Thunderstorms

A warm front that's part of the storm will throw a burst of moderate to heavy rain at us for a few hours in the morning. There might be a rumble of thunder or two with this, but they won't be severe. It'll just be sort of a stormy, unpleasant morning. 

Then, in the afternoon, the warm front will be in Quebec and the storm's cold front will be to our west, heading our way.

In this zone, we are at risk of severe storms.  But it's iffy. We indeed might see those severe storms. But there's a chance it could end up being like this past Sunday, where no severe storms really developed,

Like last Sunday, Vermont is in a slight risk zone, (alert level 2 out of 5) for severe storms tomorrow, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

There will be a lot of clouds around, and it won't get super warm tomorrow (highs in the mid 70s to near 80).  Those conditions would tend to dampen the risk of storms. 

But remember, our parent storm system in southern Canada is super intense for this time of year. Winds several thousand feet overhead will be screaming along. Storms that do develop could grab some of that high speed air and blast it down on us, leading to locally damaging gusts. 

Or, the winds aloft might be so strong that they tilt wannabe thunderstorms so they have trouble getting severe. We don't know yet. 

It's a maybe, maybe not proposition, so stay tuned and be prepared in case there are severe storms tomorrow. The storms will be moving very fast because of those strong upper level winds. So there might not be much warning for you if a severe storm develops. 

Do note that just because we didn't see severe storms last Sunday, we're not immune from such storms tomorrow. This is an entirely different weather setup that we had a few days ago, so you can't rely on last Sunday's weather maps for clues.  

Flooding

I'm not really that worried about flooding. Sure, rain might come down hard at times. But everything will be moving so fast that the downpours will zip on through before they can cause much trouble.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does have us in marginal risk zone (Level 1 out of 4) for flash flooding. That's because a few areas of Vermont have gotten really sodden from recent rains, so it might not take much to set off some high water. But if something like that does occur, it will be pretty isolated and scattered.

In general, we should expect a half inch to an inch of rain out of this storm, give or take

AFTER THE STORM

In the winter, storms like this often stalls or slows down way up north in Quebec or in the Canadian Maritime provinces, creating cold northwest winds, wind chills and snow showers. Those snow showers usually focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

None of that will happen, but it will be cool. And breezy. With showers. Rain showers, not snow showers, of course! Those showers could happen anywhere, but yes, they'll focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

The cool air won't be really established yet on Friday, so it'll get into the 70s. Best chance of shower is i the afternoon and evening. 

Saturday will be the cold, blustery post-"winter storm" day. Highs will only get into the 60s to around 70, and there will be quite a few showers around. Nothing heavy, but just enough to make the day exactly the opposite of the warm, bright sunny Saturday we had last weekend. 

Sunday will be somewhat better, but we'll still have a risk of light showers. 

Very often, after a winter storm passes just to our north in, say, January,  a follow up storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. That gives Vermont a nice snowstorm, especially south. 

Again, no snow this time, it's a zillion times too warm. But Monday could turn out cool and rainy as a storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. It's still too soon to know how much rain, but the best chances are across southern Vermont. 

This "winter weather pattern" won't last all summer, of course. Temperatures should warm up to more seasonal levels later next week, with no cold season type storms in sight.