NOAA Winter Outlook Gives Vermont, Rest of Northern U.S. A Warm Winter, But Take It With A Grain Of Salt

NOAA's winter forecast has warmer than normal air,
in general across the northern U.S, and a tossup
across the South. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook last week, and it was designed by El Nino.  

In general, El Ninos tend toe provide the northern tier of states with mild winters, while the South is stormy. That's not always the way it works out, it's just a tendency. 

Right now, we have a record breaking super El Nino underway, so NOAA is going with the traditional El Nino game plan for the winter.

NOAA has the best chances of warmer than average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes and northern and central New England 

The chances of milder than average temperatures are less certain in the central United States, though NOAA is leaning that way. NOAA is also predicting near average temperatures for Florida and the far Southeast. And it's a coin toss between above and below average temperatures in the Southwest. 

NOAA's winter precipitation forecast has wetter than
normal conditions across the South and maybe the East
and dry spots in the northern Rockies and Great Lakes 

Also staying true to El Nino's blueprint, NOAA calls for a wetter than average winter over the south. Especially in southern and central California and the Southeast. The northern Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes lean drier than normal.

The East Coast is a bit of a wildcard, but NOAA is leaning wet there, too. Some of those southern storms take a turn north along the coast. It's unclear if this means a bunch of rain and mixed precipitation or snow. But if the temperature forecast is right, snowstorms won't linger long on the ground like last winter. 

If the NOAA forecast is right. 

Long range forecasts are notorious. tricky, and are at least sometimes inaccurate. RalphWeatherOBS on Twitter brought receipts. 

For instance, last winter, NOAA forecast the northern Rockies to be on the cold side and southern Rockies. The entire West turned out to be very warm last year, so in that region of the nation. NOAA was half right. 

For 2024-25, NOAA predicted the East Coast would have a warm winter. Instead it was near to slightly cooler than average. 

OLD FARMER'S ALMANAC

For what it's worth, the winter prediction map for the Old' Farmer's Almanac is confusing. They have northern and southeast New England as "mild, dry," while central and parts of western New England are "cold, snowy."  For one small region of the nation, you really can't have both, so I don't know what gives. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac breaks it down this way with a little more detail for the Northeast: 

Temperatures would be above  normal in the north, below normal south. The coldest period would be in early to mid January. Precipitation is expected to be below normal, though snowfall might be above normal south.  

THE FARMER'S ALMANAC

There's another almanac that's been around forever, The Farmer's Almanac that also does winter forecasts. 

This almanac seems to have El Nino in mind, too. They predict a number of coastal storms going up the Eastern Seaboard, much like the supposed "typical" El Nino winter.

Since it will be a generally mild winter, again, presumably due to E Nino, this pattern involves a lot of mixed precipitation and wet snow, according to this Almanac. 

Of course, Almanacs are just fun. They don't accurately predict the weather, no matter what they say.

El Nino is also no guarantee, as we mentioned above. The only thing I'm certain about this coming winter is that there will be surprises. 

 

Long Stretch Of Sunny Vermont Weather Continues, With Subtle Day To Day Changes

People strolling on a nice autumn day yesterday in 
Georgia, Vermont. Mostly sunny weather will 
continue all week, but there will be some 
subtle day to day changes. 

 Sunday surely cleaned up nice. 

Temperatures soared well into the 50s and winds were on the light side, making for a delightful day. 

As previously advertised, this begins a stretch of mostly sunny weather that could last at least until next Monday. With a few little hiccups thrown in. Those hiccups won't make much of a different, though. 

The overall pattern continues the same: Strong high pressure centered near northern New England and  Quebec, with strong low pressure spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast. That low pressure won't have a  direct effect on us, but might influence temperatures a bit. 

Also, the shape the big high pressure system will shift over time, influencing our temperatures. Eventually, a reinforcement of that giant bubble of high pressure will also lower our temperatures a bit. Eventually. 

Here are the dailies

TODAY

The start of the workweek will be the warmest part of this sunny spell. As is typical with clear skies this time of  year, the day started cold again - 20s in much of Vermont, 30s in the Champlain Valley. 

The high today is stretched out between that storm off the coast, and another one up by Hudson Bay. That will set up a southwest winf flow. Highs should get to near 60 in many spots, low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

TUESDAY

The high pressure will start to rebuild and strengthen over the Great Lakes as the storm near Hudson Bay takes off toward the Arctic. This will begin to set up a north wind that will gradually lower temperatures. This new arrangement looks like it could create a cold front of sorts that might spread some clouds around Vermont in the morning, but it should turn sunny. Highs should he well up into the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY

The center of the strong high pressure will have moved to southern Quebec by Wednesday. The cool north flow will continue but barely. The proximity of the high will mean light winds. It also means a cold, frosty start to the day, with lows in the 25 to 32 degree range for most of us. Highs should reach the 50s again. 

THURSDAY

The storm off the East Coast looks like it wants to contribute to a dip in the jet stream forming in far eastern Canada. That will eventually help tug a reinforcing high pressure system into Quebec.  All this might spread a couple clouds our way and hold temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

FRIDAY

The models are still disagreeing on how cold it will get with that trough in eastern Canada and the cold high pressure system coming in behind it. The most pessimistic computer models would hold daytime temperatures in the mid 30s a mid 40s and we'd deal with a stiff north with along with some clouds and sprinkles and flurries. 

Other models keep us partly sunny with highs in the 45 to 52 degree range. We'll wait and see how this resolves. But the chances of measurable precipitation are really low no matter which model you look at. 

SATURDAY

As it looks now, strong high pressure will be centered right overhead in Vermont, or close to it. If that happens, look for another cold, frosty morning, followed by another sunny day with highs at least in the low to mid 50s/

SUNDAY

The high might slip just to our south, turning the very light winds to a southwesterly direction. If that happens, we could pop up into the low 60s again under sunny 

BEYOND SUNDAY

It's hard to say how and when these persistent weather patterns break down, but we could start to see that early next week.  For now, the next chance of any rain would be around Wednesday, October 28

Parts of Southern California Burning Again, Hot Dry Winds Fuel Blazes

Homes burn in San Juan Capistrano 
during southern California wildfires
that broke out on Friday

 Some of you might be surprised to hear of wildfires in southern California. Didn't it just rain there?

Well yes, it did, sort of. But the heaviest rain was well south of Los Angeles.  The city itself received just 0.06 on October 12. Most places north of L.A. didn't receive any rain at all..

So when the hot, dry Santa Any winds started blasting through the mountains and canyons of southern California Friday, so did the fires.

As ABC7 In Los Angeles reported on Saturday: 

"Firefighters are battling blazes in San Clemente, Malibu and Azusa. While forward progress has stopped with the Peak Fire in Azusa, the Norte Fire in Orange County and the Bryson Fire in Malibu have forced evacuations."

The Norte fire destroyed six homes in San Juan Capistrano and forced evacuations there and in nearby San Clemente. Two firefighters were injured. 

The area was ripe for fires. The thick underbrush around the area hadn't burned since 1950. 

Though hot, dry, windy weather continued on Saturday, this will thankfully be a relatively short-lived bout with those kinds of conditions. 

The weather will be calmer and somewhat more humid starting today.  Showers are forecast in central and southern California Wednesday and Thursday, including in areas that received no rainfall last week.

Let's hope that's the start of an El Nino rainy season, one that could prematurely and thankfully squelche southern California's autumn fire season.  

 

Sunday Morning: A Cold Start, But Remarkably Steady, Calm Weather This Week. Maybe Beyond, Too?

Henry the weather dog on Saturday
found an area of relatively warm sunshine
and a sort of camouflage amid fallen
leaves a pine needles at his St. 
Albans home Saturday afternoon. 

And that's a wrap. 

Already. our brief cold snap was fading away as of dawn today. Especially in western Vermont, the coldest readings were at around 2 in the morning, rather than dawn, which is customary for a cold night. 

The core of the cold air had already departed and temperature began to rise in the early morning hours. Overnight lows were pretty uniform, in the low to mid 20s. 

The Champlain Valley was a tad warmer, with upper 20s a little after midnight before getting above freezing as the first light in the eastern sky began to emerge. 

In terms of snow, several towns, mostly in the Northeast Kingdom reported a trace of snow. Video from Stratton Mountain in southern Vermont showed a solid dusting of wet snow near the summit. As the sun came out during the day the summits shown white under the cold skies. 

Yesterday looked warmer than it was. Bright sunshine developed, especially away from the mountains. But a stiff northwest wind and temperatures holding in the low and mid 40s had a whiff of winter to it, though it was nothing compared to what is eventually coming. 

COMING UP

As previously advertised, we're in for a long spell of tranquil, mainly sunny and seasonable weather for this time of year. 

Such unwavering weather is rare in Vermont (If you don't like the weather in Vermont.....)  It's especially rare in the second half of October, when the weather pattern normally gets more active, with stronger storms and more aggressive pushes of warm and cold air as we rapidly descend toward winter. 

A stalled storm or subtropical storm will spin well off the Mid-Atlantic coast through at least Thursday. To the north, where we live, a corresponding high pressure system will stall just to our north, providing generally sunny weather. 

There might be a minor readjustment to this regime late week, when that storm will finally slip away into the Atlantic. Up here, a cold front will replace our high pressure system with an almost identical one which might then hang out for a few more days. 

The only major change in our weather - and it's uncertain - is that the new high pressure will temporarily cool us off more. 

The details

Today:   

Some cloudiness along and north or Route 2 will yield to sunshine. The rest of the state will enjoy war to wall sunshine. Highs in the mid 50s, so pretty nice

Monday-Thursday. 

Generally sunny. Highs in the 50s, with low 60s in the warmer valleys. Lows in 30s to low 40s. Some clouds might arrive Thursday, we're unsure of that yet. 

Friday-Saturday

The American computer  model really chills us off to readings not that far off from yesterday, which would mean highs in the 40s, with upper 30s Northeast Kingdom. The American model usually overemphasizes cold air in the long term, so I don't think it will be that bad. An early guess would put highs within a few degrees either side of 50s and lows within a few degrees either side of 30. 

I think the next chance of noticeable rain won't come until October 25 and the earliest and possibly as late as October 30.  

Winds Roared In Vermont Friday; Wintry-ish Cold Today; Super Calm Week Coming Up

A brief break of sun over Colchester, Vermont Friday
afternoon before showers arrived with those dark
clouds. The cold front brought much 
colder air to Vermont for today.

 Wow, in some parts of Vermont Friday, the wind really did howl. I see a report of 60 mph from Colchester Reef and several reports of gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range. 

Power outages in Vermont briefly spiked to near 3,000 at one point Friday. 

It was still windy out there this morning, and that state of affairs will continue all day as our brief winter spell has settled in. 

Rainfall was pretty variable across the state as much of it was pretty showery, giving the rainfall pattern a sort of hit and miss quality. Burlington and Rutland had about a third of an inch. Montpelier had 0.6 inches. St. Johnsbury was closer to a half inch. 

The overnight race between incoming dry air and incoming cold air was mostly won by the dry air. The cold air was a little bit slower to arrive than expected. So, snow accumulation is limited in Vermont, mostly just relegated to the really  high elevations.

My go-to check for snow at relatively high elevations is traffic cameras along Route 242 in Westfield and Route 105 in Jay. Neither camera showed any snow on the ground this morning. I'm sure the mountain peaks got a dusting, though. 

Some lower elevations likely saw snowflakes. I noticed Montpelier reported light rain with temperatures in the mid-30s for awhile early this morning. I'm sure that was snow a little higher up on surrounding hills

TODAY

The rest of the day will be partly cloudy, windy and cold. As of 8 a.m. temperatures statewide were within a few degrees either side of 40, and those reading will only go up  few degrees by this afternoon. 

Those wind gusts to 30 mph will make it feel much colder than that. And, to put the final nail in the coffin for Vermont gardens this year, temperatures statewide still look like they'll be in the 20s by dawn tomorrow.

SUNDAY

We transition to warmer weather, at least by afternoon. As we hit mid-afternoon, we should be up in the low to mid 50s, just a tiny bit cooler than average.

MONDAY-SATURDAY

The challenge for me all week will be coming up with things to write about regarding Vermont weather. A stalled pattern means high pressure will remain stuck over northern New England and Quebec, giving us a long stretch of dry, seasonable weather. 

Highs every day will be in the 50s to near 60. Lows will be in the 30s. There probably will be some fog in the river valleys during the mornings.  We might have to watch for some temperature inversions that could keep the low clouds and fog  going much of the day on some days, but so far, the chance of that appear pretty low. 

The only chance of rain appears to be maybe some sprinkles Thursday as a very lame cold front helps reinforce the high pressure nearby. 

Despite the rain we've just had, there might be an elevated fire risk later in the week as all those fallen leaves turn crispy in the dry air. 

Vermont Foliage Stripper Winds Howl Today; Still Expecting A Brief Winter Interlude Before Calm, Pleasant Week Ensues

My lawn in St. Albans, Vermont is suddenly littered with 
leaves as strong winds blew through this morning. 
Tomorrow will be much colder, with a wintry
feel to the air. But the cold wave will be over by Sunday. 

 The wind was howling outside mph windows here in St. Albans, Vermont, and the air was filled with flying leaves as our foliage stripping storm roars on. 

The Champlain Valley was taking the brunt of it, as gusts were well over 40 mph in spots. By 8:30 a.m. , the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued a wind advisory through 4 p.m. today, for gusts up to at least 45 mph.

At one point this morning, there were almost 1,000 power outages in the Champlain Valley. I'm sure a few more will pop up as we go through the day. 

It was breezy in other parts of Vermont, but not nearly as much as in the Champlain Valley.  Here's how the rest of today looks:

TODAY

The rest of the day will be shower, windy, especially in the Champlain Valley, and briefly warmer. Highs should get into the 50s to some 60s, mostly west of the Green Mountains. It looks like the showers might be  more concentrated in the mid-afternoon to evening time frame. There might even be a rumble of thunder.

No severe storms are expected here in Vermont, but the storm is dynamic enough to raise the risk of severe storms in the Mid-Atlantic States, extending as far north as Connecticut.

The storms's cold front should cross through Vermont this evening, causing those temperatures to drop and snowflakes to fly in the mountains late tonight. 

SATURDAY

Our brief introduction to winter is still on track. But just as we suspected, the intensity of it doesn't look like it will be as intense as some earlier forecasts 

Still, Saturday will be a shock to the system. Early day snow showers will dust the ground at elevations of above 1,500 feet, and the mountain summits will get maybe a couple inches of fresh powder. 

Highs will only get into the 30s in the Northeast Kingdom and 40s elsewhere. Probably low 40s in most places. The foliage stripping will continue as northwest winds rocket through with gusts to at least 30 mph most places. The wind will be more widespread than it is today, even if gusts won't be as strong as they are today in the Champlain Valley. 

Saturday will be no day for a foliage hike in the mountains. Underfoot it will be wet, with icy snow at higher elevations. Temperatures will remain below freezing all day as you approach the summits and wind chills up there will be in the single digits. 

It'll be a nice novelty, though, seeing the white capped mountains surrounded by splashes of color remaining as stick season begins to emerge.

SUNDAY

What cold wave?

The frigid blast will end as quickly as it began. Sunday will dawn cold, with temperatures across the state in the 20s. But under sunshine, temperatures should reach the low 50s at least. For reference, Sunday afternoon will be very similar to yesterday afternoon. So, yeah, pretty damn nice. 

NEXT WEEK

I don't need to pick out the weather on individual days next week, because it will be pretty much the same all week. The overall weather pattern will stall, much to our benefit.

A storm will spin and  not move all that much off the Carolina and Virginia coasts. Meanwhile, it looks as if a sprawling, huge high pressure system will linger over or near New England all week. That means sunshine most days, with pretty normal temperatures for this time of year. 

That means comfortable afternoons with temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s, and cool overnight lows in the 30s. Not a true Indian Summer because it won't be unusually warm. But close enough. 

We'll have light winds, too

Those light winds will be great for those of you who will be raking leaves. The job is so hard to do when the wind is howling, so next week will be a great break for that.  

A Calm Day In Vermont Before A WildStormy, Windy, Snowy, Frigid (For October) 48 Hours

The trees in back of my St. Albans, Vermont home, 
stubbornly green until recently, have finally changed
colors. Many of those leaves will blow off in the 
coming days due to windy, rainy, then frigid
weather. A brief winter intro is coming. 

We awoke to at skies that were at least partly blue, a nice switch from northern Vermont's gloom and gray skies from yesterday. Southern Vermont had some sun, but also a few lingering showers, so it wasn't really a perfect autumn day. 

Rainfall totals from our wet storm are completely in. It looks like a pretty broad area of northwest Vermont  had 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. 

The Northeast Kingdom, which really needed the rain, had a respectable one to two inches. Amounts generally tapered off as you went south. By the time you reached Route 9 in far southern Vermont, less than half an inch fell.

We're in for a bit of a wild ride the next few days until things really, firmly calm down again, so let's get into it

TODAY

The pick of the week. Not perfect, but pretty damn good. Lots of sunshine, mixed with sun clouds, will augment the beautiful fall foliage. It'll be cooler than yesterday, especially compared to the balmy temperatures southern Vermont  had yesterday. Most of  us will see the low 50s. 

Enjoy the foliage, because a lot of it will blow away starting tomorrow. 

FRIDAY

Here's where the excitement begins big time. Rain should spread into Vermont early in the day. It'll be a rainy, windy day, with the most wind in the Champlain Valley and many areas in the northern Green Mountains. This won't be a damaging wind storm by any means, except to the fall foliage. Winds should gust to 40 mph in some places. 

On the Green Mountain summits, winds should gust to 55 to 65 mph. Between the rain and the wind, it won't be a day to go on a hike. In fact, up there, it will be dangerous. 

We'll see another decent rainfall, too, with amounts coming in between a half inch and an inch for most of us by Friday night. 

The storm's sharp cold front will come through in the evening and temperatures will plunge through the 40s and 30s Friday night. Rain will change to snow in the mountains, though precipitation rates will get much lighter as drier air moves in. 

SATURDAY

Here's our introduction to winter. Thankfully, it won't last long. Snow levels will fall such that even valleys could see some early morning flurries. There might be a thin scrim of snow on the ground at elevations above 1,500 feet. A couple inches of snow will dust the summits. 

Even though some areas will see a little sun by afternoon, it will be incredibly cold for mid-October. We might be seeing some record cold "high" temperatures. The record cold high temperature in Burlington for Saturday is 42. In Montpelier, it's 37. Unless it's still relatively warm just after midnight, we'll come close to tying or breaking those records. 

The National Weather Service tells us temperatures on the mountain summits will hold in the upper teens to around 20 all day. Welcome to January in Vermont. For one day, anyway. 

Strong northwest winds will make it feel much colder. If you can bundle up, go out and enjoy the snoliage views. Most of the leaves will have blown off, except in the lower, warmer valleys. But there will still be some. colorful trees and branches left. The contrast with the high elevation snow will be just lovely. 

SUNDAY

Definitely a cold start, but not as cold as you'd think, given how chilly Saturday will be. The core of the cold air will be moving away early Sunday. So, we'll start the day in the 20s, with a couple upper teens in the coldest hollows. Places like Burlington, St. Albans and other places close to Lake Champlain have avoided a freeze so far. Not this time. 

The day will get better as it goes along. Highs should reach to near 50, low 50s in the warmer valleys. The sun will be out, and winds will be much lighter. We'll actually have  lovely, crisp afternoon. 

NEXT WEEK

This week has been pretty wild for Vermont weather. Next week, not so much. Expect a fair amount of sun pretty much every day, with seasonable temperatures. That means frosty mornings in some spots with lows in the 30s, and highs in the 50s to low 60s. No weather systems of note seem to want to come through next week. 

We'll let you know if anything change. s