Videos Show The Wild And Often Scary March Weather This Year

A huge tornado in Illinois early this month. Video of the events
is included in this post 

The first three weeks of March have been a wild weather ride in the United States. The weird weather is continuing, but as we often do, we're looking back at some of the most dramatic weather videos in recent weeks. 

We have a real variety pack this week so let's settle in and watch the excitement. 

This is a view of a deadly tornado in Union City, Michigan on March 6.  It's a view from the south side of Union Lake as the tornado tears through the north side. This view is closer, though, and also includes its initial development. You also see at the end it crosses the still partially frozen lake. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below, click on that.

Drone footage showing the aftermath of the tornado in Union City, Michigan. It looks like it hit a nice lakefront area. As always, click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that.

Kind of a long video, but it's worth if for the visuals. It's distant shots of the powerful tornado on Tuesday in Kankakee, Illinois. If  you ever wondered about the green clouds that people talk about when a tornado is near, this is it. 

The greenish bluish hue was due to the fact there as an enormous amount of hail in the storm clouds. The large hail caused a lot of damage even outside the path of the tornado. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

More locally, we had our abrupt March thaw in and near Vermont that brought temperatures to record high levels. The sudden thaw helped create ice jams in area river.\

Here is an iIce jam on the Ausable River in New Yor breaking loose.  Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that:

Next up, my own video of an ice jam, this one on the Missisquoi River in Enosburg, Vermont. Note at 2:30 the birds all go silent just before the jam starts to move. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

If you want to feel chilled to the bone, watch this Fox Weather video of the March 14-16 blizzard in Marquette, Michigan. Click on this link to view or if you see the image below click on that. 

People stuck on an interstate after March 15 blizzard near Green Bay, Wisconsin. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

In Oshkosh, Minnesota, Lake Winnebago created what is known as an "ice shove." The ice  on the lakebroke up in thawing temperatures. Strong winds blew the ice onshore onshore, forming immense piles. The ice piles threatened homes but at last check hadn't reached them. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 

Vermont Turns Wintry: Snow/Rain Today And Computers Still Arguing Over Weekend Storm

Snowfall amounts don't look huge for today's small 
storm, but a burst of heavy precipitation seems like
it might be timed just perfect to hit during
the afternoon commute 

 Things are taking a wintry turn again in Vermont, as we have two potentially wintry storms. One today, and the next maybe over the weekend. 

After a very weak system left a dusting of snow on much of northern Vermont yesterday, the next one is on our doorstep. 

A winter weather advisory is in effect for northern Vermont from the Green Mountains east, and in the Adirondacks and other parts of northern New York today through almost midnight tonight. 

Those areas should see two to four inches of snow in the valleys, and four to six inches at elevations above 2,000 feet.  

The Champlain Valley is the biggest wild card here. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY'S STORM

On paper, today's storm should be a nothing burger. It's a small, compact little thing coming in from the west. Usually, this type of storm are like last night's: They throw a few inconsequential rain drops and snow flakes at us and call it a day. 

Not this one.  It looks like it's finding some nice lift in the atmosphere. In general, the more vigorously air rises, the more precipitation you get. This little storm has also found some atmospheric moisture to work with. The result: A decent batch of rain and snow for us today.

If this were the middle of winter, all of us in Vermont would be getting somewhere between three and eight inches of snow out of this. But much of this storm is coming during the day in the second half of March. The sun angle is now higher and stronger. Despite the clouds, the sun's warmth will penetrate  those clouds will keep some areas too warm for much snow. 

This makes the forecast tricky. Since the temperatures will be so marginal, one slip of the thermometer will make a big difference. If it ends up a degree or two colder than expected where you are, congratulations, you'll be shoveling snow. If it's a degree or two warmer, it'll just be soggy out there. 

Southern Vermont looks like it will simply be too warm for snow.  Even the high elevations should get very little.

Northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain should be cold enough for mostly snow, though there's a good chance rain would mix in through the valleys. In these areas, your afternoon commute will probably be messy, especially away from valley floors. 

Which brings us to the Champlain Valley. Yes, it's warmer here. But like we've seen so often this year, it's a timing issue that causes just a little bit of snow or ice to become a big problem right during commuting hours. We can't catch a break. 

The heaviest rates of precipitation look like they might be in the mid to late afternoon. When precipitation is heavier, it brings down a little cold air. In this case, that might be enough to change rain to snow. 

And it would come down pretty hard, coating roads pretty quickly. So watch out if you have to drive in the Champlain Valley during the afternoon rush hour. Because chances are it will be the slush hour. The best chance of snowy or icy roads in the Champlain Valley are roughly from about Milton north to the Canadian border. 

This storm won't last long. Give or take, depending on where you are, the heaviest rain or snow should only last four or five hours this afternoon or very early evening east. 

After all that, Saturday should be nice with afternoon highs for most of us coming in within a few degrees either side of 40.  The sun will come out, too.

But then..... 

WEEKEND STORM 

I don't know what to think of the expected storm Sunday and Monday. 

At this time yesterday morning, the computer models suggested the center of the storm would go by a little to our north, and we'd get mostly rain. 

Last evening, some of the models had it going a smidge to Vermont's south, which would give many of us a substantial late March snowfall. 

This morning a few, but not all, indications had the storm going further to our south, which would mean perhaps northern Vermont would escape the worst of it. 

Don't bet on any of the above scenarios just yet. The models are still in disagreement over the ever-important storm track, so it's still a bit of a mystery how much rain and/or snow any particular location in Vermont gets out of this. 

Whatever happens to this will probably be similar to today in the higher elevations are more apt to get snow while valleys have a better chance of a cold rain. 

As I mentioned yesterday, we're now in a rather cool and unsettled weather pattern and I see no end to it until at least the beginning of April 

Trump Says Cuba Doesn't Have Hurricanes. Cubans Beg To Differ

Damage in Cuba last October from Hurricane Melissa.
Donald Trump's assertion that Cuba gets no hurricanes 
appears to be very untrue

 It seems like Donald Trump loves his conquests, or threatened ones. I've lost track of the nations he says he wants to take over, but one of his latest targets appears to be Cuba.  

Since this isn't so much a geopolitical blog, we'll get into another excuse to pick on our Orange One

As the Miami Herald reports:

"Donald Trump told reporters at the White House that Cuba would be ideal for the U.S. to take over because of pleasant weather and it is not prone to hurricanes."

The cockwomble's exact quote was:

"I think Cuba, in its own way, tourism and everything else, it's a beautiful island great weather. They're not in hurricane zone, which is nice for a change, you know? They won't be asking us for money of hurricanes every week."

The alleged lack of Cuban hurricanes might come as news for those living on the island.  

We have to harken all the way back to October, 2025, yes, a whole five months ago to find an example of Cuba being hit by a hurricane 

That was Hurricane Melissa. After it finished up in Jamaica, where it was tied for the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, Melissa roared on through Cuba.

It wasn't as strong as in Jamaica, but it was strong enough, with part of eastern Cuba seeing sustained was of 115 mph with a gust to 136 mph. Melissa wrecked an electrical grid in eastern Cuba that had already been trashed by previous hurricanes and not yet fully repaired

Melissa was definitely not a one-off

Cuba is historically one of the hardest hit countries in the Western Hemisphere during hurricane season.

Josh Morgerman, a veteran hurricane chaser and one of the world's leading hurricane experts, said on Facebook that he's been getting a LOT of questions about how many hurricanes hit Cuba. He didn't say why everybody's asking, but thanks to the Miami Herald and other media outlet, we now know.

Anyway, Morgerman has the stats:

"Just since 2000 the island nation has had 16 hurricanes, include a rare Category5 (Irma, 2017) and five Cat 4s. In Gustave, 2008, Cuba measured a sustained 1-minute wind of 135 knots (155 mph) gusting to a whopping 184 knots (212 mph) - one of the highest official wind readings ever recorded in a hurricane."

Our Orange Whopper has said he believes  he'll "have the honor of taking Cuba" soon. Oh, great. 

If he does somehow make Cuba part of the United States - good luck with that - Trump is probably right that Cubans "won't be asking for money for hurricanes every week."  

Trump still seems intent on reducing money for FEMA are giving up on it entirely. Which raises the possibility that nobody in the actually now-existing United States would receive disaster relief. 

Let's just make things more dystopian, shall we?

  

A Long Chilly Weather Slog Coming Up In Vermont

Since the weather won't be especially springlike over the
next two weeks, here's some greenery from a past spring.
Trust me, it will look like this in about six or seven weeks.

In many years here in Vermont I've seen some solid, warm hints of spring during March, only to fall into a cold, long slog of weather through late March and into April. It almost always happens.

This will be one of those years.

Granted, it won't be as had as some wintry early springs we've had in history. But you won't be basking in balmy summer rays anytime soon, either. 

SOME HISTORY

To make you feel better, I can give you some examples of how bad it has been, with reassurances it won't come close to being as miserable this time around. 

March/April 1919: On March 27 that year, the high temperature was 62 degrees in Burlington and the low was 50.  Delightfully springlike. Then it snowed for the next four days, totallng 19.1 inches. 

High temperatures - never mind low temperatures - were below freezing from March 29 through April 2. The high temperature on April 1 was 19 degrees. There's a horrible April Fool's Joke.

March/April1975: It was a supreme example of early spring awfulness. It got up to a respectable 54 degrees on March 25. Then, all but one of the next 14 days through April 10 never got as high as 40 degrees. Nine of those days never got above freezing. Measurable snow fell on eight of those days, totaling 13.5

Now that I've scared the hell out f you let's get into the reality of this spring.

THIS YEAR'S SETUP

There's always the possibility we could get a day or two over the next couple of weeks that are warm, but chances are good almost every day for the next two weeks will be near or below normal.

The record-shattering heat dome is in place out in the southwestern United States, sending temperatuers into the 100s there. On the east side of the heat dome, the jet stream and air flow come mostly from the northwest, sending repeated cold fronts and storms our way.

The rest of this week into the weekend will feature temperatures close to normal. OK, I guess. But the sky will be cloudy most of the time, and we'll also see chances of rain and/or snow most of the time. 

It looks like most if not all the storms over the next two weeks will be small to medium sized, but each one will bring probably bring both rain and snow to Vermont. 

THE DETAILS

Today: 

A weak disturbance was swinging through, bringing a few snow flurries to start the day. No biggie. It'll be warmer than the past couple of days, too, getting up to near 40.  That's close to average. There might be few light rain or snow showers overnight. Again, not a biggie.

Tomorrow

A somewhat more substantial storm will come in from the west. It won't be a huge thing, but the rain and snow will be more noticeable. And steadier, The precipitation - rain the low elevations will begin by afternoon. At this point the storm looks like it will aim slightly heavier precipitation at southern Vermont, but that could change. 

For now, rain or melted snow in the north will amount to a quarter inch, ranging to near a half inch far south. 

Tomorrow night, the rain will change to snow starting and mid and high elevations and reaching valley floors later. Those valleys will see very little accumulation, as temperatures will be slow to reach the freezing point. 

The higher elevations could pick up two or three inches of snow, with maybe something near six inches at the summits.  

Next Storm

This one is a bit of a wild card as the computer models are still fighting amongst themselves over the type of precipitation and the amount. 

At this point, it looks like a warm front will move through Sunday with snow quickly changing to rain. The rain looks like it could be fairly heavy with this one if everything comes together as some of the models suggest.

If the storm goes a little further south than expected, that would put more snow and mixed precipitation into play. Stay tuned on this one.

BEYOND SUNDAY

Next week looks like it will bring the core of our long chilly spell. Once again, it looks nothing like 1919 or 1975, thank gawd. Instead, most days will get into the 30s. A couple days might not even make it above freezing. 

If a storm during the middle of the week goes by to our north, we might have one day, or part of one dah of relatively mild weather. Don't worry, spring will get here eventually. 

Michigan Governor Wants NWS Staff Cutback Investigation After Surprise Tornadoes

One of the unexpectedly large and deadly
tornadoes that struck southern Michigan on
March 6. Political leaders are calling for
investigations as to whether Trump cuts
 to the National Weather Service are
causing forecast inaccuracies. 

 Michigan Gov Gretchen Whitmer's is asking whether federal budget cutbacks at the National Weather Service contributed to making this month's deadly tornadoes in the state a dangerous surprise. 

No tornado watch had been issued in Michigan before the storms, though tornado warnings were issued when radar images detected rotation and witnesses reported tornadoes forming. 

This, from Whitmer's office: 

"The National Weather Service exists to monitor conditions and inform Americans of severe weather in their communities. The fact that the (National Weather)Service did not issue a tornado watch is troubling, especially  with the loss of life in Michigan," Witmer spokeswoman Stacey LaRouche said in a statement.  

That statement continues:

"While tornadoes can be hard to predict, the federal government should investigate whether the failure to use a watch was related to federal cuts."

Also, Michigan U.S. Senators Gary Peters and Elissa Slotkin also sent letters to the National Weather Service offices in Marquette, Gaylord, Grand Rapids, Detroit and northern Indiana asking whether lack of staffing or resources could have affected whether a tornado watch was issued.  

While it's absolutely possible budget  and staff cuts have hindered the National Weather Service's forecasting prowess, there was also a pecific reason why a watch was not issued. 

This was a unique situation. The Nation Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center did not issue a tornado watch because the atmospheric setup suggested only the risk of isolated, likely weak and brief tornadoes. That's not normally enough to issue a tornado watch. 

A tornado watch is usually issued as a heads up for a large area that widespread, severe storms are likely to occur, noted CBS Detroit chief meteorologist Ahmed J. Bajjey. A watch means people should pay attention and be ready to take shelter if need be. 

And it turns out there was just isolated activity, which followed the "rules" on not issuing a tornado watch.   This one was different, though. Only one supercell thunderstorm produced the series of four tornadoes that spread death and destruction across southern Michigan on March 6.   

 The National Weather Service did issue tornado warnings when it became apparent the twisters were forming. A tornado warning means people should take shelter immediately. 

One good question is did forecaster miss clues ahead of time that southern Michigan would fall victim to intense, long-lasting tornadoes? It's probably worth investigating, not to shame the meteorologists involved, but to learn how to better forecast in scenarios similar to what Michigan endure on March 6, 

 It's been a year since sharp and unpredictable Trump administration cuts to the National Weather Service and its parent organization NOAA began.

There's reason to believe the system is straining.

ANOTHER TORNADO FORECAST

While we're at it, we should look at another questionable tornado forecast. This was on Monday, when NOAA gave a moderate risk - the second highest of five alert levels - of tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic states. Some of the tornadoes were forecast to be possibly strong.

We did see a few hundred reports of wind damage up and down the East Coast Monday, so part of the forecast came true. But there were hardly any tornadoes, and no strong ones. That's great news, of course. 

But the dire alerts that went out on Sunday that the next day would be a frightening scene of violent tornadoes frightened the public, in this case unnecessarily. 

In this case, forecasters didn't expect some early thunderstorms on the Carolina coast Monday morning that stole energy from the atmosphere in the mid-Atlantic states. The winds in the atmosphere also didn't turn out to be quite as conducive to tornadoes as first thought. 

Updated computer model runs Sunday evening began to back away from the idea of strong tornadoes and wind gusts over 75 mph. But by then the message had gotten out of the tornado risk. It was too late for the public to notice these first signs that the tornado risk was lowering. 

If the so-called DOGE cutbacks at NOAA had any negative effect on the forecast it would have likely come in one of two ways:  One, is National Weather Service offices were so short staffed that meteorologists didn't have the opportunity to note subtle signs that the tornado outbreak was not to be.

That is the more unlikely of the two scenarios. A more plausible explanation is that there are now too few balloon launches that capture the meteorological intricacies of the atmosphere. With not as much data being collected by the weather balloons, the computer generated forecasts might not be as accurate. This is another issue that deserves a lot more scrutiny. 

I don't know whether DOGE is to blame for the botched tornado forecast. But if the short-sighted Trump administration cutbacks are to blame, I fear the next time, the National Weather Service won't be able to forecast and anticipate a deadly tornado outbreak or other weather disaster. 

Meteorology is a complex science. So complex that weather forecasts will be wrong from time to time, no matter how fully staffed a particular National Weather Service office is. 

Michigan's governor and the state's two U.S. Senators will probably learn that the March 6 tornado forecasting didn't fall short.  Many of us first worried a year ago when the DOGE cuts were first happening that they would threaten the lives of Americans.

I'm ready for a full analysis of whether that has been the case.  

sSpring Arrives Friday: What To Expect, And Hopes For A (Slightly) Wet Season

Astronomical spring starts this coming Friday. I
am definitely ready for it!

 Spring arrived on March 1 for people enmeshed in meteorology and climatology. 

But the rest of the world goes by the start of astronomical spring. For us, spring starts at 10:46 a.m. this Friday. Hallelujah! 

The early signs of spring are already here: 

Red wing blackbirds have been doing their "conk la REE" song for a week or two now. There's rumored sightings of crocuses in protected southern exposures around the state. The first green nubs of my daffodils have tentatively poked through the ground in may gardens. 

Clearly,  the worst of winter is over for most of us. Don't tell that to anybody in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, which just had a record blizzard there, and some places in the region have four to as many as six feet of snow on the ground. I'm glad that's not our problem!  

Average temperatures around rise fastest from around mid-March to mid-April.  In Burlington, the  normal high temperature today is 41 degrees. By April 18, a mere month from now, normal afternoon temperatures will be 57 degrees, so that's quite an improvement.. 

Even though a generally cooler the normal weather pattern has set up, it will get more and more difficult to see some truly wintry cold waves. Difficult but not impossible. It's been below zero in Burlington as late as March 29 1923   Widespread subzero cold froze Vermont as late as April 7, 1972.

But spring is volatile in Vermont. It's also been as hot as 84 degrees in March (1946 and 1998) and 92 degrees in April (1976).

On the negative side, measurable snow has fallen well into May in the past. Let's hope that history doesn't repeat itself this year.  

As far as how the weather will turn out this spring, the short answer - as always, - is "Who knows?" The folks at NOAA pretty much throw up their hands at this one. They give us in the Northeast equal chances of above or below norma temperatures this spring. They also give us equal chances of above or below normal rainfall. 

Believe it or not, there's still a lingering drought in parts of the Green Mountain State. It's not nearly as bad as it was last summer and autumn, but it's still a potential problem. Since things have been frozen all winter, the U.S. Drought Monitor maps have also been "frozen," in Vermont, with no change since mid-December.

The U.S. Drought Monitor maps still show drought in northeastern Vermont and abnormal dryness in southern areas of the state through the winter. The next Drought Monitor maps comes out tomorrow, and it will be interesting to see if anything changed now that things have begun to thaw out. 

In any event, precipitation hasn't been that impressive this winter. The first half of the season brought is near to slightly below normal precipitation.

February and so far March have been dry. It seems for the past couple months, the bigger storms have sent their heaviest precipitation west, north, south and east of us, but never quite hitting Vermont directly. It's almost as if last year's drought has a kind of "muscle memory" that causes precipitation to avoid us.

Sure, we want a lot of bright, sunny, balmy spring days. We also want a wet spring to erase the last vestiges of last years's deep drought.  

Too bad we can't put in an order for what what would really work: Rainy nights and sunny days through the spring. 

But it's Vermont. Expect anything. Sunny and 80 one day, snow the next. Vermont's weather always keeps us on our toes. Especially in the spring 

Deep Snow, Unseasonable Freezes, Record Heat, Tornado Busts: March Weather Madness Reigns

A scene from the blizzard in northern
Michigan, via Facebook, Michigan
Storm Chasers

 The big storm that was harassing the United States is mostly gone, but its left damage, weird weather and the risk for more problems in its wake. 

BLIZZARD

The blizzard lived up to its promise, as forecasts for somewhere in the neighborhood of three feet of snow verified in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and in Wisconsin. Harbor Springs, Wisconsin was buried beneath 40 inches of new snow. Cheboygan, Wisconsin saw 38 inches of snow, while Wausau picked up 30.9 inches. 

This all got whipped up into massive drifts as strong winds blew throughout the storm. 

Marquette Michigan picked up 36.3 inches of snow new snow. That makes this month's total there so far 54.4 inches. I think I'd kill myself instead of shoveling my driveway with that amount of snow!

Before the storm was even finished yesterday morning there was 47 inches of snow on the ground. They haven't had less than two feet of snow on the ground since January 4. Talk about never-ending winters!

Video showed vehicles stuck for miles in the snow on an Interstate highway near Green Bay, Wisconsin fPeople in those cars said they'd been stuck for five hours or more. Green Bay had its deepest single-day snowfall since at least 1889, with 17.1 inches on Sunday. The city's storm total came to 26.6 inches.

In Illinois, snow wasn't nearly as deep, but strong winds sent tractor trailers on icy Interstates spiraling into ditches. 

SEVERE WEATHER

The good news is that there were no major tornadoes anywhere on the East Coast yesterday. Ahead of the storm, the atmosphere seemed primed for strong tornadoes in the Mid-Atlantic states.

Thankfully, that isn't what happened.

Some thunderstorms formed early in the day near the North Carolina coast. That siphoned some of the heat and moisture needed to produce rotating supercells and tornadoes. There were a couple of tornado warnings in Maryland, but none touched down. A couple of weak tornadoes were reported in North Carolina. 

We did see 485 reports of wind damage, mostly involving fallen trees and power lines. And even better news: No severe thunderstorms or tornadoes are forecast anywhere in the U.S. during the next week. 

WILDFIRE

A final capture before a trail camera was destroyed in
the big Nebraska fires. The camera owner was able to
recover an SD card from the melted camera.

Strong winds to the south and west of the massive storm that blasted the Great Lakes region helped fan the largest wildfire in Nebraska history. 

Collectively, four fires in central and western Nebraska have burned around 750,000 acres. As of yesterday, there was 0% containment, though updates this morning indicated the fires were now partially contained. One person has died in the fires.

One of the four fires, the Morrill Fire, is the largest in the state's history. At last report, it had burned through nearly 573,000 acres. An update this morning indicated it was 18% contained. 

Most of Nebraska is in drought. Dry, windy weather. A red flag warning is up for Nebraska today, and a fire weather watch is in effect tomorrow, when it is expected to turn windier and even drier. 

Brush fires and wildfires have afflicted the Plains through the second half of winter and now into March. The region has been persistently dry and frequent wind storms have fanned the flames.  

FROSTY SOUTH 

Early season crops and gardens across the South are taking a serious beating from frost and freezing temperatures. The huge storm's strong north winds and an accompanying strong dip in the jet stream brought wintry air far south. 

Last week brought record breaking high temperatures to the South, and that really got plants going after a chilly winter with plenty of freezes. This morning's subfreezing temperatures were surely a big setback. 

Huntsville, Alabama went from 71 degrees just after midnight yesterday to a burst of snow just 10 hours later.

By this morning, several places in East Texas and Louisiana saw record lows . In Shreveport, it was 25 degrees, besting the old record of 27 degrees. Longview, Texas reached 27 degrees, breaking the record low by a degree. 

Birmingham, Alabama got down to at least 27 degrees, which breaks the record low for the date of 28 degrees.

Freeze warnings are up again for tonight from eastern Arkansas all the way to the Carolina coast. 

WESTERN HEAT BUILDS

As noted in a previous post, the Southwest is entering an unprecedented stretch of extremely weird March heat. 

Each day from tomorrow through Sunday in Phoenix will feature high temperatures between 102 and 107. Those highs each day will be at least seven degrees above the current record highs, which is absolutely bonkers. 

Highly unseasonable extreme heat warnings are going into effect in the Desert Southwest. This heat wave is more dangerous than most because people aren't climatized to the heat yet. Plus, the deserts are overrun with tourists who are there to enjoy what is normally a cooler time in the deserts. Plus, extra tourists were attracted to a super bloom of flowers in Death Valley and the Mohave Desert. 

Despite all these weirdnesses around the nation, the odd weather is settling down for now, with the glaring exception of the Southwestern heatwave.

i'm sure the atmosphere is just recharging for more fun and scary and gobsmacking weather times ahead.