Vermont November Gloom Continues; Late Week Storm Could Whiten Mostly High Elevations

A dull photo taken this morning in St. Albans, Vermont
representing the dull November in the states.

 All the leaves are brown, and the sky is gray, as that famous Mamas and Papas song tells us. They might have well be singing about Vermont while they were California Dreaming. 

It's always cloudy this time of year, and November has really be showing its true colors, I mean color, the pat couple of grey, overcast days. This state of affairs should more or less continue this week, as it almost always does in November. 

There might be a few sunny breaks to tease us, especially in southeastern Vermont, so you have that to look forward to. 

We still have that late week storm we're watching and the computer models are still arguing about it.  The forecast is messy, and the resulting weather will probably be kind of messy as well. Let's get into it. 

TODAY

Another in a series of weather disturbances is approaching us from the northwest. It'll hit northern Vermont this afternoon and evening while pretty much ignoring the southern end of the state.

This is a no big deal weather system.  Showers will develop this afternoon. Some might even be briefly heavy-ish.  There could even be a couple spots with graupel mixed in. If you remember, graupel is that sleety, snowy pellets, kind of resembling pieces of styrofoam packing peanuts. 

Up north, rainfall amounts will be light again. Most places will get a tenth of an inch of rain or less. 

Southern Vermont, especially the Connecticut River Valley, could see some sun today. 

Today it will be sort of mild for November. Highs should reach 50 north to mid-50s south. 

WEDNESDAY

We'll be between weather systems. So, we'll endure typical November weather. Cloudy, breezy, chilly. Highs should stay in the 40s.

THURSDAY

Here's where things start to get interesting. 

We know a deep dip in the jet stream will form over the eastern United States, which means storminess.  How it develops is still in question, but it's beginning to look messy, with lots of moving parts. 

What follows is the first guess of what will happen. Expect changes in this forecast, as the the atmosphere will get complicated, with prediction models still struggling with the whole thing. 

It seems like moisture from the initial piece of storminess will come in Thursday. Early guesses are light rain in the valleys, snow in the mountains. Not super heavy, but maybe pretty steady.

 One question, as pointed out by WPTZ meteorologists, is that rain could change to snow even in the Champlain Valley Thursday evening. We're not sure yet. It's something to keep an eye on. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us, the American  computer model wants to linger the storminess over or near New England Friday and Saturday. What that means for us is unclear. 

More unsettled weather, for sure. But how much rain? How much snow? If it snows, where? Just the mountains? Or the valleys, too? We'll have to sort this out over the next couple of days. 

November Gloom Has Descended On Vermont; Not Going Away Soon

Forecasters are watching a potential storm late in
the week. This map is one scenario for Thursday
morning showing a storm developing south of us.
At this point, anything could happen. It could stay
to our south, not develop much, or give us
our first bout of wintry weather of the season. 

Sorry, getting a late start today, but let's get into  it. 

Those gorgeous, sunny days that began November are long gone. It's been back to reality since Saturday and it's not going away anytime soon. 

November is the cloudiest month of the year, though December is about tied. So we have a lot of overcast skies to look forward to.

Meanwhile, there's still a TON of questions regarding the potential storm toward Friday. Some models have a total whiff for us, others give us a fair amount of snow and/or rain or something in between. More on that in a bit. 

After the Saturday rain failed to materialize, the next in a series of rapid-fire disturbances gave us a little rain last night. Burlington got a quarter inch. Most other areas got much  less, unfortunately. 

So, here's the forecast 

TODAY

Scattered showers will linger today under cloudy skies. Typical November. The National Weather Service says a few heavier showers might have some graupel, which is sort of sleety, half frozen snowy-ish pellets. 

Highs should be near normal -within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. 

TUESDAY

The next in that spray of disturbances coming from the northwest will give us another gloomy day. Northern areas could receive another tenth to as much as a quarter inch of rain. Central and southern Vermont will only see less than a tenth of an inch of rain. So, nothing substantial. But it's still too dry out there, so we'll take everything we can get

Highs should be in the 40s to around 50. Again, very typical for November.

As temperatures cool, a little snow should fall in the high elevations, but it shouldn't amount to much. 

WEDNESDAY

This will be the "nicest" day of the week. There will be no rain or snow to speak of, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. I suppose there could be some quick breaks of sun in the broader valleys, but it will be far from a blue sky day. 

Highs should again be in the 40s, to maybe 50 in the warmest valleys.  A north breeze will make it feel nippier. 

THURSDAY

It could be the calm before the storm. Or just a calm day before no storm We don't know yet. But in any event, we also don't expect any rain or snow. Highs again should be in the 40s to around 50.

FRIDAY

Here's the day where pretty much anything could happen. We just don't have enough information to tell. The forecasts will become better within a few days once we have better upper air sampling. 

Some models don't really get the storm's act together, and suppress the storm to its south.  So we just get another cloudy November day.

Other models get the storm's act together and flings it up the coast, spreading potentially heavy, wet snow our way, maybe mixed with a little rain. 

Or, we could just get the outer fringes of this thing, and we just get some snow or rain showers. Stay tuned on this one. 

NEXT WEEKEND

Oddly, the forecast for next weekend is a little easier than Friday's forecast. Whatever that storm does, it should be north and east of us by then. It will send cold north wind our way. That means more cloudy skies, chances of valley rain and mountain snow showers, and highs just in the 37 to 47 degree range. 

King Tides, Big Storms, Giant Floods: El Nino Is Already Taking A Huge Toll, And It Will Get Worse

Flooding in McCaysville, Georgia last week. A string of 
flood disaster over the past month from California to 
Florida is just the beginning of what is shaping up to
be a horrifically destructive Super El Nino winter. 

 The southwest and southeastern parts of the nation are cleaning up from flood disasters in the past couple of weeks caused by nation's first major encounters with the ongoing super El Nino. 

Coastal areas, especially in California, are cleaning up after record sea levels flooded hundreds if not thousands of homes and businesses.  The same problem hit parts of Florida. 

Then, storms caused intense, destructive, sometimes record flooding in both the southwestern U.S. and in Florida. Then later in northern Georgia and southeast Pennsylvania. 

The extreme weather had tapered off by Tuesday, but these are likely the opening salvos in a very rough weather winter. 

 KING TIDES 

King Tides hit yearly, when the moon is a little closer to Earth than usual. That makes the pull of the tides stronger and higher. Climate change has raised sea levels, making flooding from King Tides a problem that now hits a few times of year. 

In California, the King Tides hit atop a Kelvin Wave. .   

A Kelvin Wave, which elevates sea levels, is underway along the California coast, The wave elevates sea levels by six to 12 inches. The King Tide, combined with the Kelvin Wave, caused record flooding.  

Around Loa Angeles and San Diego, tides reached eight feet, shattering records and sending water through neighborhoods and major thoroughfares, like the Pacific Coast Highway. This was the worst of many high tide events around Loa Angeles this year. The city has had 12 coastal flood days in 2026. That has already outpaced any year out of the past 50. And there's two months to go this year. 

This time around, record flooding hit California coastal communities, damaging at least hundreds of homes and businesses. In one spot, the high tide covered the Pacific Coast Highway in Huntington Beach. ,. Video showed makeshift sea walls made of sand bags and plastic, while water entered numerous SoCal homes. 

 Further north, San Francisco endured its highest tide ever seen during the month of October.  A kayaker was spotted along a flooded section of the normally traffic-jammed 101 freeway. 

In Florida, the problem wasn't a Kelvin Wave, but an easterly wind flow that piled water along the coastline just as the King Tides hit. 

Virginia Key, which ia a barrier island near Miami, saw its highest King Tide and the third-highest water level since records started 30 years ago. 

Video showed water flooding streets and lapping against homes and businesses in cities like Daytona Beach and Fort Lauderdale. The video showed cars driving through the salt water flooding. 

Which is bad. Because TVs, golf cars and scooters are especially susceptible to salt water flooding.  Lithium ion batteries exposed to salt water can start fires days or even weeks after being exposed to salt water. 

After last week's flooding King Tides, the moon phases are changing, reducing the destructive King Tides for now.  King Tides hit when the moon is a little closer to Earth than usual, causing tides to rise to higher levels. 

But as destructive as the coastal flooding was last week, it might only be a foretaste of what's to come. More King Tides are coming, and those might well be accompanied by big storms, which would greatly exacerbate the damage. 

Some of the storms have already hit in the past week or so, carrying intense, record flooding. 

Flash floods extended across most of Arizona, from Flagstaff in the north to Tucson in the south. 

Flagstaff had 3.37 inches of rain on Sunday, the third wettest day on record for the city. Flagstaff has already had its wettest meteorological autumn and there's still three weeks to go. (Meteological autumn runs from September 1 and November 30. Since September 1, Flagstaff has had 13.15 of rain since September 1. 

A a result, water coursed through streets and homes. Unfortunately, the flooding killed two people in the city. 

Elsewhere, on the weekend of October 23, the resort town of Pagosa Springs, Colorado, was inundated and badly damaged by downpours and intense flooding. The San Juan River crested at 15.02, nearly three feet higher than a damaging flood in August. 

But that was only the beginning. The even more ferocious storm this past weekend, pushed the San Juan river to a crest of 16.81 feet, making it the second highest flood crest there, just short of a 1911 flood. 

Luckily, the crest fell short of an expected 22 feet. But between October's flood and this one, the destruction was still extreme. At least one house was seen falling into the river and floating downstream before disintegrating against a bridge. 

People were reported stranded in Durango and other towns.  People were evacuated from several counties in southwest Colorado as creeks and rivers burst their banks. 

Durango is a big tourist town, with plenty of condos and hotels. At one lodging, the Junction Hotel and Hostel, water filled the parking lot and first floor rooms.

FLORIDA

 Next up was southeast and parts of eastern Florida, especially around Brevard County

Two people have been reported dead because of the flooding. 

The flooding was widespread and exceptionally damaging, especially since it hit such a heavily populated area. AccuWeather estimates damage at between $3 billion and $5 billion. 

On Tuesday, in a single day, Melbourne received 11.51 inches of rain. On November 2-3, Palm Bay had 14.19 inches of rain.  2 

Storm totals included a whopping total of 28.93 inches in Malabar and 28.13 oil he's in Palm Bay. The flooding was so bad that there had to be Election Day polling changes in severe Florida counties. 

The terrain is pretty flat, so the water wasn't able to drain well. So it lingered in some neighborhoods for days. 

Most schools in Brevard County were closed for at least three days. Some schools opened on the first day of the downpours, and buses had to somehow return students home later in the day on flooded streets. One viral video showed a student being let off into thigh-deep flood waters in Port St. Lucie. 

In an interview, the teen caught in the flooding said he was frightened by the experience, and his father said the school system should have planned out things better. El Nino is creating new challenges everywhere. 

 TENN/GA FLOODING

Some of the floods we've been seeing have been unexpected. Early Thursday, six to 11 inches of rain fell near the Tennessee and Georgia border. The rain pushed the Ocoee River to a record 18.05 feet. The previous record crest was 17.8 feet in 1990, and the river is around 2.5 feet on a normal day. 

The flooding nearly completely trashed the adjacent small cities of McCaysville, Georgia and Copperhill, Tennessee. Some people were rescued from roofs. A 90 year old woman stood on the kitchen table in her flooded home for gawd knows how long until she was rescued. 

So far,  one person has been killed in this flooding. 

Like so many of these storms lately, this flood was considered a one in one thousand year event. Also like other storms, the area punished by this flood was slammed by an inundation almost as bad just three months ago.

That will make recover that much harder because nobody has money left from the last disaster. 

The storm that hit Georgia and Tennessee ended up going up the East Coast, causing additional flooding Cape Cod, Massachusetts. The New England flooding wasn't nearly as bad as that in Georgia, but streets in Falmouth and nearby communities were under more than a foot of water

MUCH MORE TO COME

El Nino continues to strengthen. The northern hemisphere storms are taking on their winter characteristics, and will continue to become more powerful, as they do in the winter. 

The winter storms will get supercharged by El Nino, so it's clearly going to be a rough weather winter.

King Tides will return later this month and in December. If they're accompanied by one or more of those gigantic Pacific storms that often hit during those months, the destruction might be far beyond what we saw in October.

El Nino years often feature flooding rain storms, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, especially along the Gulf Coast and in Florida. Some of the those powerful storms take a turn northward, up the Eastern Seaboard, causing high winds and heavy rain or snow.

It's impossible to predict when such storms will blow through and exactly how they'll behave. 

Just expect a long winter. 

 

Vermont Rainfall Was Mostly A Bust, Typical November Week Coming, Weekend Storm?

A little snow is visible on the trees through the dense
fog atop Mount Mansfield this morning. Overall,
precipitation was less than forecast overnight. 
The week will bring frequent chances of light
rain or snow showers, but nothing big until
at least Friday. 

 The long period of dark, grey, overcast in Vermont that started early yesterday and lasted through this morning didn't help us at all. 

We expected more than a quarter inch of rain, but we were cheated, especially in central and northern Vermont. Rain passed to our south, west and east. Some very light rain and drizzle was going on as dawn broke, but that won't last long. 

Many places just had a trace of rain, or a few hundredths of an inch. 

High elevations had a little snow overnight, but it didn't amount to much. A web cam from atop Mount Mansfield, for instance, showed a little new snow. It's unclear yet whether this was an inch or snow or not. 

If not, the record for the first inch of snow on the ground atop Mount Mansfield could be tied tomorrow or broken on Tuesday. 

It's too bad we didn't get the forecast rain. . We needed it. During the week, we will have frequent chances of rain and snow, but it won't amount to much. But there is a chance of a larger storm toward next weekend, which might, or might not spread a more substantial rain or snow our way. Yes, it's possible we'll see our first measurable valley snow of the season, but there's some big ifs attached to it.

It might or might not happen, but get your snow tires on anyway, just in case. 

Let's get into the updated forecast for the week:  

TODAY

The light rain, drizzle and fog this morning should thin out. We might even see some sun this afternoon, especially in western Vermont. 

Especially in the Champlain Valley, it looks like it could turn mostly sunny for a short while this afternoon before more clouds come in this evening. Just know that there is some ifs ands or buts with this forecast. Sometimes, low level moisture has a hard time getting scoured out of valleys this time of year. There's a chance that the sunshine forecast will be another bust. 

But for now the National Weather Service is being optimistic, so we'll hope they're right and things brighten up for a little while. 

Highs should be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees, which is about normal for this time of year. North winds should taper off a little and become westerly this afternoon. 

MONDAY

Starting Monday, we're in a fast northwest flow for the week. That means we'll be sprayed with rapid fire, weak disturbances racing in from the northwest. 

The first one comes through late tonight and tomorrow morning. We'll have some light showers in the morning, but we'll only have a few hundredth of an inch of rain. Or even nothing in southeastern Vermont. 

Unlike today, it'll stay cloudy. Highs once again should come close to 50 degrees.

TUESDAY

More than 48 hours out, it's hard to judge the timing of all this disturbance, so we have to go broad brush. No saying what time of day it will rain or snow. Just know it will be typically chilly for November. And we won't see a lot of sun.

On Tuesday, early guesses are some light showers would be most likely in the afternoon and evening. It will probably be cold enough for a little snow way up in the mountains. Again that's pretty normal for November. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

As the northwest flow continues, it will get colder. It'll stay partly to mostly cloudy with that ever-present chance of light rain or snow showers. The National Weather Service is going for highs generally in the 40s those days. Cool, but not out of the ordinary for November. 

At this time last year, most of northern Vermont had several inches of snow on the ground and daytime highs were only in the 30s. 

FRIDAY/NEXT WEEKEND

A lot of the models are still  hinting at a pretty strong storm or nor'easter toward Friday or the weekend. There's still lots of disagreement on how strong the storm will be, its path, and even whether it will fully develop. That means we have no idea yet what that means for Vermont. 

This morning's models were a little more bullish on fairly heavy precipitation for us. It's unclear it that means, rain, snow or both. Plus, forecasts this far out tend to flip flop dramatically. A very wet or very snowy scenario in the models today could change to a dry forecast when the another run of computer models come out. 

For now, as mentioned above, now is a great time to get your snow tires on, even if the weekend storm for Vermont turns into just another partly sunny day.  

The snow will hit eventually. 

Back To Reality. Vermont To Turn Colder, Wetter, And Eventually Maybe Snowier.

Fog and a gray atmosphere this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont. The warm, sunny weather we enjoyed for the 
last few days is over, in favor of typical cloudy,
rainy, cold November weather. 

Friday was another gorgeous day in Vermont the last we will see for a long time. Depending on your definition of gorgeous, of course. 

Some people love the gloomy, gray, wet and cold days of November. If you're in that camp, there's great news. 

Typical November weather is moving in. Starting today. 

Otherwise, I guess we can bask in the memory of yesterday. It was particularly sunny and warm in western Vermont. Some clouds were overhead in southeast Vermont, but it was still a pretty nice day down there. 

Highs were in the 60s statewide. You can't beat that. At least this time of year. 

We're on the cusp of an El Nino winter now. And this is an extreme El Nino, so there's always a chance things could get wildly interesting at times in the coming months. 

My experience with past big El Nino winters  in Vermont is that they feature bouts of very warm, often record-breaking warmth, and/or nasty or even destructive storms. In between, you get long periods of pretty average weather. 

El Nino springs are often even more volatile, but we're getting ahead of ourselves here.

We just had our first spell of record breaking warmth. Now, it's going back to normal, but we could get a decent-sized storm in a week or so. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

We're starting off mild again, as temperatures were in the 40s at dawn. It was overcast and foggy, too, and it's not going to clear up, not at all. As of 8:30 this morning there was very little rain in Vermont. Yet.

Highs should only make it to the 50s, which is still slightly above normal for this time of year. 

However, that upper level low spinning in New York State. During the day, you'll see increasing rain moving in traveling east to west across Vermont. 

Forecasters have upped the amount of rain northern Vermont will receive, and keeping it about the same as early predictions south. That means pretty much all of us will receive a quarter to a half inch of rain this afternoon and tonight. 

I'm still a little skeptical about the north. I wouldn't be surprised if some of us north of Route 2 receive a little less than a quarter inch. 

SUNDAY

Early in the morning, before dawn, the very highest elevations will have switched to snow.  It doesn't look like there will be much accumulation. We might just see a new record set in Vermont. 

The latest in the season that the summit of Mount Mansfield had the first inch of snow on the ground was November 9, 1985. If there's less than an inch of snow at the summit tomorrow morning,  we have a good shot at seeing that record broken. 

Any rain will tend to taper off in the morning. It'll stay cloudy and cool, though some areas, especially in western Vermont could see some sunshine late in the afternoon, not long before sunset. 

Highs should get to near 50 or so, which is close to average for this time of year. 

MONDAY

The week will feature some rapid fire quick hits of light rain and snow in a fast northwest flow.  Little disturbances will zing through northern New England quickly, each with a package of light precipitation. 

The first one comes through Monday, with a little light rain. No biggie.   Most of the light rain should come through in the morning and early afternoon, but we can't rule out sprinkles extending through all day. Monday will be seasonably cool with a high near 50 degrees.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY

More weak, rapid-fire disturbances will zip through, typical of November. That means mostly cloudy skies, and nearly and ever-present chance of light rain or snow showers. Highs should be in the 40s to near 50. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

We're starting to see signs that a major storm could hit New England. It's really, really uncertain at this point. So there's no reason to panic. The storm could go harmlessly out to sea. It could go inland. It could go right along the coast. It's possible the storm might not form at all. 

There's some social media hype that we'd get a major snowstorm here in Vermont. But that's hype. I suppose it's possible we could get snow out of this, but it's way, way, WAY to soon to think about that. 

So, don't worry about it for now. Listen to forecasts later in the week, and we'll have much better handle on it then. 

A Summery November Thursday In Vermont. Now The Cool Down Starts. Rain, Too. And Did Someone Say Snow?

As the sun sank toward the horizon yesterday in St. Albans,
Vermont, convective showers were developing across
the lake in New York, taking advantage of oddly
humid air for November. 

Thursday in Vermont had to be one of the most summer-like November days in history. 

It started bright and early with balmy breezes and a giant rainbow over northwest Vermont, that I regret to say I missed.  

Burlington tied a record for the warmest low temperature on this date, with 60 degrees. It also tied the record for the second warmest low for the entire month of November. 

 The warmest November low, of 62 degrees, was during the record-smashing November heat of 2022.

Clouds kept highs in Vermont yesterday in the 60s, which is very balmy, but not quite record-setting. But dew points, a measure of how humid it feels, reached to around 60 degrees. That would have been typical of July, not November. 

With that humidity around, convective downpours and even thunderstorms erupted in northern Vermont last evening. Nothing severe, but still quite unseasonable. 

We're now starting the path back down to November reality. Let's get into the details

TODAY

It'll be one last mild day, but not quite as warm as it's been. Already, temperatures at dawn today were slightly cooler than yesterday. but still balmy by Vermont standards. It was in the 40s north and 50s south. 

We're going to eke out a nice day, especially considering it will be decidedly unpleasant not far to our east and west. 

A flood watch is in effect for southeastern New England due to expected heavy rain today and tonight from a stalled, very wet front.  Western New York is in for a showery day due to a storm in the upper levels of the atmosphere. 

Vermont, meanwhile, will spend the day in a gap between these two weather system.  So, we'll have a little sunshine mixed with clouds, and highs will get into the toasty 60s. Toasty for November, anyway. 

Enjoy it, since such mild days will be rare indeed until next spring. 

Some models bring that coastal rain inland to the Connecticut River Valley later today and tonight,  but that's uncertain.  Radar indicated some rain moving into southern Vermont at mid-morning, so it does seem like parts of eastern Vermont might not be quite as nice as western parts of the state. We shall see this afternoon!

SATURDAY

That western New York upper low will come through New England Saturday. It still looks like the heavier rain might hit southern Vermont, but some models bring a good amount of rain to northern areas. 

For now, it looks like rainfall will amount to a quarter inch or less north of Route 2, gradually increasing to more than a half inch in far southern Vermont. However, some models bring more rain to northern Vermont than what this morning's forecast 

Highs will be in the 50s, which is a little warmer than normal for this time of year. But temperatures will fall well into the 30s. That means rain will probably change to snow in the high elevations. A few areas above 1,500 feet could get a couple inches of slushy snow. 

SUNDAY

Rain, and a little mountaintop snow, will tend to taper off in the morning. The rest of the day will remain cloudy and raw, so, so depressingly typical for November. Highs should be within a few degrees either side of 50. That's pretty normal for this time of year. 

NEXT WEEK

This will be a typical November week in Vermont. That means a fair amount of clouds, chilly temperatures, and occasional risks of rain or snow showers. We'll have a rapid-fire series of disturbances blowing in from the northwest 

Drought Monitor Says Drought, Dryness Worsened In Vermont

Drought and dryness in Vermont worsened in the 
past week. Pretty much all of the Northeast
Kingdom is in drought (orange shading).
Virtually all of the rest of Vermont, aside 
from the extreme northwest corner is
abnormally dry (yellow shading).

To no real surprise, drought and dryness in Vermont worsened over the past week, as the state is still enduring a lack of rain. 

The latest weekly U.S.Drought Monitor, released Thursday morning, indicates drought expanded. 

Last week, 14% of the Northeast Kingdom was drought. This week, the Northeast Kingdom drought expanded to include nearly a third of the state, covering pretty much the entire NEK.

Virtually all of the state is now at least abnormally dry.  Last week 81 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry or in drought, according to the Drought Monitor. This week, 97 percent of the state was abnormally dry or in drought, the Monitor said. 

Only a tiny corner in far northwest Vermont is not officially experiencing oddly dry ground conditions. 

The Drought Monitor uses data that ends each Tuesday.  During the week studied, Vermont had less than a tenth of an inch of new rain. 

The forecast isn't encourage, but at least some rain is coming. Current forecasts give Vermont another quarter to a half inch of rain over the next several days. We'll take every drop of rain, but we could really use a much bigger soaker before winter sets in.