Very Rare "Kelvin-Helmholtz" Cloud Formation Seen In Vermont Thursday

Rare Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds over southern 
Vermont on Thursday. 

 Hat tip to the Vermont Skies page on Facebook for capturing some very rare Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds over southern parts of the state late Thursday.  

Kevin-Helmholtz clouds resemble a series of breaking waves. And they kind of are just that, actually. These are pretty rare.  The atmosphere needs the perfect alchemy of winds to make these clouds happen.  

As the Mount Washington Observatory explain:

"Lord Kelvin and Hermann Von Helmholtz, who studied physics that lead to this wave-like cloud formations, Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds form on windy days, when two different layers of air in the atmosphere move at different speeds. The winds in the upper layer of air move at higher speeds and cause cloud tops to roll over like a breaking wave. The atmosphere is split into layers when air densities change with height, for example, during temperature inversions."

It was not windy Thursday, but the Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds in the Vermont skies posting appeared to be high and thin.  At such high elevations, probably around 20,000 feet or even higher. It was surely windy up there.

The clouds appeared to form along the outer edge of cirrus clouds associated with what was then a developing nor'easter developing off the North Carolina coast. At the same time, strong, dry high pressure was sitting over Quebec. 

The Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds developed along the border between the two weather systems. 

Planes avoid Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds because there's tons of instability and turbulence around them. 

Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds are often hidden by other clouds, which is one reason why we don't see them that often. But everyone has a phone these days, Which means they have cameras. The Vermont Skies had lots of responses with photos, all taken in southern Vermont, and in nearby New Hampshire and Massachusetts. 

 

  

Nor'easter Beginning To Weaken After Causing Deaths, Destruction; More Rain In Vermont, Little North

Our nor'easter this morning looks almost identical to
what it looked like yesterday morning except the
center of it is just off the Jersey Shore. You can see
an eye-like dot of clear skies at the 
center of the storm. 

 Our nor'easter continues to cause problems along the East Coast today with strong winds, flooding rains and the risk of more coastal flooding. 

Vermont remains on the edges of the storm. More on that below, but first, just a few of the storm headlines. 

STORM LOSSES

At least one death and some injuries were attributed to the storm around New York City. A 56 year old man was killed in Brooklyn when a tree fell on him. Elsewhere in Brooklyn, four people, including two children, were injured by a falling tree at a playground. 

In New Jersey, rescuers pulled nine people and a dog from flooded hotel rooms. By early this morning, 82,000 homes and businesses were without power across the Northeast.

Major coastal flooding inundated many homes and businesses along the Jersey Shore. Some homes had at least a foot of water inside. The inside of Surf City Marina on Long Beach Island, New Jersey was flooded for the first time since Superstorm Sandy in 2012.

Winds from the nor'easter were more damaging than usual right along the coastlines because leaves are still on the trees. The leaves act like little sails, pulling the tree laterally wind strong winds blow. Only about 2 percent of all nor'easters hit in September. The vast majority of them occur in the winter, when trees are leafless. 

Nor'easters are usually large in area than most hurricanes, so this type of storm can often spread its damage over a wider area. 

Today, the coastal flooding won't be as bad as Saturday's as the storm makes landfall in New Jersey a weakens. But heavy rain is still falling along the East Coast, so flooding from sources other than the ocean could be a big problem for the rest of the day. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

As expected, it was rainy and gloomy in southeast Vermont Saturday, though not all that much rain fell down that way. Things improved as you headed northwestward. By the time you hit the northern Champlain Valley it was quite a nice day with breaks of sun and highs in the low 70s.

Today

Today, the rain bands from the nor'easter are making it as far north as the Quebec border.  Rain today will be showery and pretty light in general, except in southeastern Vermont, where rain will be heavier. 

It won't rain all the time today, but we'll have an ever-present risk of at least light showers. You'll have dry breaks in between, so you can sneak outside and do a little fall cleanup between the raindrops. North of Route 2, today's rain will amount to less than a tenth an inch, with a few places just getting just  trace.  

Southern Vermont looks like it will be wetter than the north, consistent with previous forecasts. They should see mostly a quarter to a half inch of rain by this evening with maybe a little more in the southern Green Mountains and maybe a little less up toward Rutland. 

It will be cooler than yesterday in the north today under the clouds with highs in the 60s - still not bad for this time of year. Southeastern Vermont might hold in the upper 50s under thicker clouds and perhaps more persistent rain. 

There have been some gusty winds along the western slopes of the southern Green Mountains, as expected.  Overnight, there were a handful of power outages down that way. Those winds should diminish as we go through the day. 

Monday

A little rainier in central and northern parts of the state than it's been, but this won't be super soaker up north, either. 

The now much weaker nor'easter will move northeast through New England, sending more showers our way. Once again, the showers will be pretty light, especially north. Most of the northern half of the state should see maybe a tenth to a quarter inch of rain. There will probably be a little more than that south. 

Except in far southern Vermont, this definitely won't be the soaker we really, really need. 

Under the clouds, temperatures will hold between 57 and 65 degrees during the day.  

Tuesday

The remnants of the nor'easter should be heading off into Canada, leaving quite a few clouds over us here in Vermont during the day. We should have little or no rain, with highs in the 60s again

Wednesday-Thursday

A nice spell of warm weather, with highs reaching the low or even mid 70s both days under at least partly sunny skies. 

Friday-Weekend

Much cooler behind a cold front which will unfortunately deposit little or no rain. Behind the front, sunshine will return, but it will be much cooler. We'll have to watch for frost again or places that haven't received it yet.

Goofy Computer Models

To give you an idea how outlandishly wrong computer models get in extended forecasts out more than a week, we present this morning's run of the American computer model. That model gives us in Vermont what looks like a snowstorm on October 9.  Snowstorms are theoretically possible that early in the season, but I pretty much guarantee that won't happen in this instance.  

Nor'easter Is Pummeling East Coast Today, Vermont To Have Varying Experiences With The Storm

The nor'easter was centered off the Virginia coast as of
around 8 a.m this morning. It's at the center of that
swirl of clouds. The thick clouds well to the 
north and west of the storm center signified the
roughest weather at the time, with wind and 
heavy rain through far southern New England 
Long Island and down into New Jersey and
Delaware, Vermont will remain on the edge of storm

The nor'easter we've been watching all week is now in full force along the East Coast from Virginia northward. 

It's already a mess along the Northeast coast. 

Along the Delaware and New Jersey shores, major coastal flooding was expected at this morning's high tide. When they start throwing around the words "major flooding", you know there's going to be damage.

Even before this  morning's high tides, there was widespread flooding along coastal streets in New Jersey, and some homes had been flooded.

The timing of this nor'easter is bad. The full harvest moon is today, and that is causing  higher tides, even without a big storm make things exponentially worse. 

In southeastern Massachusetts, mainly Cape Cod and the islands, winds have already been pretty ferocious. Gusts have reached 64 degrees on Nantucket, 62 mph on Martha's Vineyard and 59 mph in Hyannis. 

The Associated Press was reporting 60,000 power outages already, and that number will go up as the storm continues to rake the Northeast. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Here in Vermont, parts of the state are already feeling the fringe effects of the nor'easter this morning. The Green Mountain State looks to stay largely on the fringes throughout the event. But the experience will be sharply different depending on where you are in the state. 

If I were completely selfish, I'd wish this storm was moving about 50 to 100 miles further north than expected. That would have made the storm worse in southern New England, but would have also given all of Vermont a very nice, needed soaking of rain. 

Instead, rain bands are, and will rotate north and westward into Vermont today and tomorrow. Those rain bands will peter out as they head deeper into the state. Dry air connected to strong high pressure to our north and west will eat up the moisture, probably leaving the northwestern part of the state with mostly just occasional sprinkles. 

Let's get into the daily details

Today

As of 8 a.m this morning the first rain band from the nor'easter had already made it into southeast Vermont. The rain should become a little more steady and heavier this afternoon down that way. Under the clouds and rain, temperatures will probably hold hear 60 degrees

The further north and west you go, the drier it will become. Northwestern Vermont should actually have a decent day. It'll be cloudy, with maybe some breaks of sun and mild, with highs up in the 70 to 73 degree range. 

In between those two extremes, central Vermont will have a mediocre weather day with clouds, perhaps a very light shower and temperatures well into the 60s. 

Tonight/Sunday

This period will contain  the bulk of the storm in southern Vermont. Tonight and tomorrow down there will be decidedly rainy and in some places windy. In southeastern Vermont, some of the rain bands could bring some briefly heavy rains. 

As those rain bands work north and west, they'll weaken just as they will today. But they will have a little more oomph. That means central Vermont will have a somewhat showery, cool day, though rainfall amounts won't be huge. Maybe a few hundredth of an inch of rain. Maybe 0.1 to 0.2 inches in the wetter spots. 

Northwest Vermont is in for an OK day again. It will be cloudy and a little cooler than today. (upper 60s). There's a chance of a few sprinkles in the afternoon and evening, but certainly nothing to really wet things down. 

Winds will pick up too. In most of the state, it will just be a north to northeasterly breeze but nothing weird.  However, along the western slopes of the southern and maybe central Green Mountains, it could get quite gusty. 

Some of those gusts could be between 40 and 50 mph.  I don't see any wind advisories for this area yet, but the National Weather Service might issue such an alert later today. 

Monday

Northern and probably central Vermont will have the wettest period from this nor'easter, but that isn't saying much. By then, the nor'easter would have greatly weakened and started moving toward the northeast, through New England. 

Showers should fall statewide, but the rain won't amount to much north. Maybe a quarter inch in many places, but maybe a tenth of an inch or less far northwest. Because of the showers, it will be a little cooler with highs in the 58 to 65 degree range. 

Total rainfall from the nor'easter is now forecast to come up to as much as two inches in the far southern Green Mountains. Most of the southeastern quarter of the state can expect maybe an inch. Central Vermont is due for between a quarter and a half inch, with locally higher amounts.   

The far northwest can expect a quarter inch or less, with some areas getting only a tenth of an inch or less.

Bottom line: Beneficial rains in the southeast, but mostly a whiff for the rest of Vermont

CAVEATS

Nor'easters are notoriously tricky. Especially slow moving ones like this character.  Some areas of the state might receive more or less rain than forecast. I'm hoping for a miracle that would bring heavier rain to northern Vermont, but so far it doesn't seem to be in the cards. Doesn't mean it can't happen. 

The storm will continue to batter the northeastern coast today and at least part of tomorrow before weakening. So you'll see dramatic videos of waves and coastal floods on the news. In Vermont, it'll just be another so-so autumn weekend. 

Nor'easter Still Being Unpredictable, But Vermont Likely To See Fringe Effects

The visible satellite photo early this morning for Vermont
and surrounding areas early this morning was interesting
The southwest to northeast oriented bands of clouds
were the outermost effects of that building nor'easter.
Those clouds that sort of look like cracks in
central Vermont and the Connecticut River
Valley was dense valley fog. 

We've got one more delightful fall day to get through before the weather goes downhill somewhat thanks to that big nor'easter we've been talking about all week. 

Vermont looks like it'll get mostly the fringe effects from this big storms. Meanwhile. the coast from Virginia to New England is bracing for coastal flooding and erosion, and high surf and strong winds.   

The nor'easter will move northward off the East Coast today and a good part of tomorrow. The computer models are now trending toward a westward hook that would bring the nor'easter to near or onshore of New Jersey or perhaps southwest Long Island. 

That's different from the westward hook into New England we saw on yesterday's forecast. 

This doesn't really change the forecast much for coastal areas, especially from Massachusetts south. 

If the westward hook into New Jersey happens, it could change things a little for Vermont. But again, no matter what happens, we're not feeling the full effects of the nor'easter. 

It still looks like southern Vermont will have the worst weather out of this. The further you head north, the less rain you'll see. North of Route 2, there's definitely a chance of some rain, but it might not be a washout up there.   

Here's how we think it will play out, based mostly on National Weather Service forecasting. Bear in mind this is a tricky forecast so things can still change

TODAY

I said above it will be delightful today, but perhaps not as perfect as yesterday. Thursday featured wall-to-wall blue skies after the morning fog burned off.

We started today with more valley fog, which was burning off as I wrote this. Judging from satellite images, some clouds will probably come into southern Vermont later this morning and gradually work northward. 

The northern half of Vermont might start to see at least some high clouds this afternoon but our weather as a whole today will be sunny and mild.   Highs should top out near 70, especially in the warmer valleys. 

SATURDAY

Most of us will have a breezy day with winds from the north or northeast as the storm draws closer. But southeastern Vermont looks like it might have a dramatically different day than the northwest. Down by Brattleboro,  and Wilmington and Springfield, it looks like a cool, rather rainy day with highs near 60. 

Once you get way up into the northwest, places like St.Albans and Swanton and the Champlain Islands, there could be some sun mixed with the clouds and highs will get to near 70 again. 

Places in between those two extremes will sort o have weather that is not as bright as St. Albans, but not as gloomy as Brattleboro. 

SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY

Rainy and breezy to in some places windy in southern Vermont. The rain might even come down pretty heavily at times in far southeastern Vermont, depending on how the moisture flow with this nor'easter sets up. 

The amounts of rain would taper off as you head north and west, such that there might be only light showers north of Route 2.  This is a really tentative forecast, though, so expect surprises. Nor'easters are especially annoying and challenging for anyone trying to forecast them. 

If the nor'easter comes just a tiny bit further north than expected, more of Vermont gets a soaking rain. 

If the storm hooks to the left a little sooner than forecast, there'd be less rain and maybe even perhaps none at all once  you get close to the Canadian border. 

For now, the National Weather Service nor'easter rainfall roulette board gives extreme southeast Vermont more than an inch of rain from this storm. Very roughly south and east of a line from Rutland to St. Johnsbury gets at least a quarter inch of rain, with more than a half inch once you get down toward Ludlow and Springfield. 

Northwest Vermont should get less than a quarter inch, with some areas receiving less than a tenth of an inch or perhaps nothing at all.  However, a few computer models do have a band of rain spiraling all the way north to the Canadian border, so there's a chance of a surprise up there. 

It's too soon to tell whether this forecast rain map will turn out to be accurate or not. But chances are, you'll probably get a little less, or a little more rain than the map is telling us.  If you have weekend plans, expect rain southeast. Further north, have an indoor backup plan if you were going to do stuff outdoors. 

With the nor'easter perhaps hooking westward into New Jersey, at least maybe, that would give the wind flow up here in Vermont more of an easterly component. Which sets us up for the classic downslope winds on the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

I'm not expecting a wild western slopes windstorm, the kind we sometimes get in the winter with this type of storm. Even so, it could get pretty gusty, though, along the western slopes, especially in the southern half of the state. 

Wind gusts in some areas of southern Vermont, mostly on the western slopes could get to 40 or even 45 mph. That's enough for a few widely scattered  instances of tree branches coming down, or even an isolated power outage, but it won't he widespread.

EARLY WEEK

The weather models have our nor'easter near New Jersey Sunday and Monday, sitting and spinning and slowly weakening. Eventually, the remnants of the storm might slowly head off to the northeast. That would keep Vermont under the clouds, with maybe sone light showers. 

Temperatures early next week should be near normal, then maybe trending above normal by mid week. This time of year, "above normal" is low 70s. 

Another Frosty Vermont Morning In Spots, Nice Weather To Be Followed by Nor'easter Effects, How Much Rain?

Yesterday, a beautiful Wednesday in Vermont, showed that
fall foliage isn't that far along yet, as this view from a 
high spot in Richmond shows. If we get wind and rain
from the weekend nor'easter, it won't wreck this year's
foliage season because things aren't 
that far long yet. 

 As expected, it was another chilly September morning today, but very typical for the season. 

Most of Vermont was in the mid-30s at dawn, with a few spots in the low 30s. The Champlain Valley was closer to 40 degrees. Southern Vermont was chillier than yesterday. Bennington was down to 33 degrees.

As always, there was a lot of fog in the valleys, which will burn off this morning. Chances are it will be gone by the time you read this. This will yield another beautiful autumn day with lots of sunshine and highs well into the 60s. 

FRIDAY

The day will dawn cool again, but probably not quite as cool as this morning. So the chances of frost are lower, but there might be a spot or two in the coldest areas. The early morning fog will be back, too. It'll be another sunny, beautiful day, Some high clouds will come in especially south. That'll be the first sign of the nor'easter in Vermont

NOR'EASTER WEEKEND

We have an overall sense of what this nor'easter will do, but the picky details of how that will affect us in Vermont is still an open question. The storm was just developing off the North Carolina coast this morning and will slowly head north while strengthening. It should be somewhere a little south or east of the New England Saturday. 

After that, it might loop a little westward while starting to weaken. By early next week the nor'easter will e falling apart while heading out to sea.

We're still looking at a lot of coastal erosion and flooding from Virginia to New England.  Also southeastern New England is under a high wind watch for those strong nor'easter winds that were expected.

Unless you like huge, beach chewing storms, stay away from the immediate East Coast over the next few days. 

Vermont Effects

It now looks like the nor'easter will send bands of rain westward into Vermont. But those rain bands will run into dry air and weaken as they do so. 

We still don't know how much rain will make it into the Green Mountain State. It's beginning to look like most, but maybe not all of the state will see at least a little rain, and it might be a soaker for the far southeast. 

Maybe. 

According to the National Weather Service/South Burlington's forecast discussion, the models are all over the place as to how much rain might fall. 

That discussion highlights the differences in expected rainfall in Vermont among the models.  As of this morning, it could be anywhere between nothing and 0.44 inches in Burlington, In Montpelier, nor'easter rainfall could range anywhere between 0.04 and 0.82. In Springfield, the range is between 0.15 and 1.5 inches. 

On top of that, we can expect more shifts in rainfall projects in the days and hours leading up to this weekend. 

Overall, it looks pretty likely that southeast Vermont will have at least a fairly wet weekend, while anything could  happen in the northwestern half of the state. 

Temperatures this weekend, especially Sunday look questionable, too. Daytime readings could hold in the low to mid 50s in areas that have the steadiest rain. If the clouds are thin and rain-free in the northwest, it could be 70 degrees up there. 

It'll get breezy, too. Nor'easters are obviously windy, and even in the outskirts of the storm it can get breezy. So far, it's looking like winds could gust to over 30 mph in the southern and central Green Mountains. The same might be true in the Champlain Valley. The winds will funnel between the Green Mountains and Adirondacks, which speeds the airflow up. 

Luckily, it's early in the foliage season and the fall colors themselves are running a little late this year. That means this storm with its potential wind and rain won't be a "foliage stripper."  The peak colors coming up in October will still be spectacular, whether or not this storm hits Vermont. 

Will This Be The Year Without A Hurricane? Quietest Atlantic Season Since1914. Pacific Buzzing With Hurricanes, Though

Satellite view of Category 5 Hurricane Polo off the
southwest coast of Mexico on Tuesday. While the
Atlantic Ocean is setting records for a lack of hurricanes,
the Pacific Ocean is really busy. The root 
cause of all this is a record strong El Nino

People from Texas to Maine are usually nervous this time of year, as hurricanes are almost always lurking in the Atlantic Ocean this time of year. 

This year, it's practically crickets out there in the Atlantic. That trend is continuing. 

It's the first time since 1914 that there have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean by now. The year 1907 was another occasion in which there'd been no hurricanes by September 22. 

However,  in 1907 and 1914, there might actually have been at least a hurricane or two.  Such a storm might have been way out in the Atlantic Ocean and just totally missed by us humans. There were obviously no satellites to track storms way back then. 

This year, we have had six tropical storms, which have winds between 39 and 73 mph. We almost had our first hurricane Sunday and Monday, but not quite. 

Tropical Storm Fay in the far eastern Atlantic almost got to hurricane status Sunday night and early Monday. Sustained wind reached 70 mph, just 4 mph less than hurricane force. But those El Nino upper level winds blew it apart, and it had weakened to a remnant low by Tuesday. 

El Nino, That's what's preventing the Atlantic hurricanes. El Nino always tends to create strong upper level winds over the Atlantic.  Those winds are kyrptonite to wannabe hurricanes, shearing apart the thunderstorms that are the ingredients for these storms. 

Usually, even in an El Nino year, at least a couple hurricanes sneak into existence somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, finding relatively calm spots amid those strong upper level winds. 

This year, El Nino is at record strength, and it appears it's helping to cause wall--to-wall hostile winds in the atmosphere. 

The remnants of Fay in the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to briefly restrengthen into a tropical storm, then get blown apart by those winds. Another disturbance just off the west coast of Africa might also develop into a tropical storm before being nuked by those high level winds, too. 

STRONG UPPER WINDS HELP NOR'EASTER?

That's not to say a strong non-tropical storm can't form in the Atlantic.  Regular storms don't wilt when faced with strong high altitude winds. And these storms can gain extra strength from warm waters. A nor'easter is due along or off the coast of the Northeast this weekend. This storm might be pretty strong, with an added boost of energy from those warm offshore waters.

Cold core storms like the expected nor'easter don't fall apart when there's strong wind shear. In fact, wind shear can help intensity them.

Here's why. Hurricanes are warm core. They tend to be symmetrical Their  center is a vertical "chimney" that vents the heat up and out. Strong winds aloft displace the heat above the eye of the storm and tilt the whole structure of the hurricane.  That limits the updrafts that feed the thunderstorms that make up the core of the hurricane. So, with high-speed air up high, a hurricane stands no chance.  

Cold core storms like our pending nor'easter are not symmetric and don't rely on a "chimney" to fuel them. Instead, they gather their energy from a contrast in temperatures across the storm zone. 

Strong upper level winds can actually help a cold-core storm intensify by bending the jet stream in such a way to add a lot of rising air to the system. The rising air creates precipitation and helps streghthen the storm. 

PACIFIC OCEAN

Meanwhile, El Nino helps hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean. And this year, the Pacific is swarming with hurricanes. Hurricane Polo formed last weekend off the coast of southwest Mexico. It exploded from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane within 24 hours, one of the fastest such intensifications on record for a hurricane. 

Hurricane Polo was still a strong hurricane as of today, and should stay just off the western Mexican coast the next few days, throwing rain bands, gusty winds and battering waves at that coast. 

Hurricane Odalys is further off the coast of Mexico, with top winds today at 75 mph. It should eventually weaken as it heads northeastward. 

Meanwhile, Hawaii, already side swept earlier this year by two hurricanes that each caused a lot of damage, is  under the gun again. 

A tropical depression has formed well south of the islands. It's expected to move north toward the islands while it strengthens into a major hurricane. It is forecast to make a hard left turn before reaching the islands,  but it could easily come close enough to cause another huge headache. 

Given the weather pattern, there will almost surely be more hurricanes in the Pacific before the tropical season ends in November. 

Vermont Frost Was Pretty Scattered This Morning; Nice Days Until Potential Weekend Nor'easter; Coast To Be Hit Hard

Plants were covered on my St. Albans deck this morning,
as a I heeded a frost advisory. I actually didn't think it
would get dangerously cold for the plants, and it
only got down to 39 degrees. No harm in being
cautious though. 

  I kind of figured the frost this morning would be pretty light and very scattered, with many places escaping trouble. You can't be too careful , though, with the frost risk for your outdoor plants, so that I think is why there was a frost advisory in much of Vermont.  

Burlington was at 41 degrees at 7 a.m. so no frost there. My covered plants on my St. Albans, Vermont deck were cowering beneath the sheets to escape a not-so-frosty 39 degrees. 

Most places in Vermont at dawn were in the 30s. Morrisville was at 32 degrees at 6 a.m. indicating at least some of us had frosts or even a freeze.

Let's get into what will happen in the next couple of days.  Then look at the impending nor'easter in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, and what it means for us here in Vermont. Spoiler: There's still a lot of unanswered questions about it. 

TODAY

Another beauty. Highs in the 60s, under lots of sun. Tonight will be cool again, and there might be new frost advisories. But if you didn't see frost this morning there's an excellent chance you won't see any tomorrow morning, either. 

THURSDAY

Nice again! Highs will into the 60s under sunny skies once again.

THE NOR'EASTER

Instead of continuing on with the daily forecast here, we should describe this impending storm. It's going to cause a lot of trouble from the Mid-Atlantic States on through New England, especially along the coastlines. 

We already have coastal flood warnings in Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey starting this afternoon, and the storm hasn't even wound up yet. 

I have seen some social media weather pundits falsely comparing this storm to Superstorm Sandy or the Perfect Storm of 1991.  That's just for clicks and profits. 

But still, this could be a pretty memorable storm, mostly because it will linger off the New England  coast for so long. 

The general idea of what the storm will do is being to take shape. It will start forming about now well off the North Carolina coast, then slowly move northward to somewhere off then coast of New England. Then it will become trapped and spin in that general vicinity for a couple days before gradually weekend and heading out to sea early next week. 

Exactly where it goes will decide how bad the weather gets along the coast. The storm's path will also determine how much of an effect it has on Vermont. Some models have the storm heading backwards for a time, moving toward the west and actually making landfall in New England. Others models keep it offshore. 

Given that, we don't know how rainy, how windy, or how chilly it will get in Vermont and where. 

I imagine clouds will slowly increase later Thursday into Friday as the storm gets a little closer. 

Here are the forecast challenges

Rain:  

Strong high pressure to the north and west will have very dry air with it. So rain moving westward from the storm into Vermont would run into that dry air.  That would mean a sharp cutoff between fairly substantial rain to the south and east and very little to the north and west. Where that line between wet and dry sets up is a complete unknown as of now. 

Wind

The closer the storm comes to us, the windier it will get. This won't be a huge blowdown by any means, but if the storm gets close enough, some gusts could get strong enough to knock down a few trees and power lines. If we do see gusty winds they're most likely in the southern Green Mountains. The channeling effects of mountains on either side other Champlain Valley might make things relatively gusty there, too.

Temperatures

Expect highs in the low 50s to low 70s over the weekend.  That huge range is by no means helpful if you're deciding what to wear if you're out and about Saturday. The problem is that dry air. Where it rains, evaporation cooling could drop temperatures well down into the 50s. If there's just thin clouds, especially north and west, temperatures could to 70 degrees.  

Bottom Line: 

If you have weekend travel plans to Cape Cod and the Islands, Long Island, the Jersey Shore or places like Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, or Ocean City, Maryland, fuhgeddaboudit.  Coastal flooding, severe beach erosion, gusty winds, power outages and inundated coastal roads will not make things pleasant.  Plus, you'll just be in the way if there are any evacuations of coastal homes and buildings. 

If you stay in Vermont really expect anything this weekend. You'll need to be flexible with your plans because with this situation, we might not know if it will be sunny or rainy until almost the last moment. A small shift in the storm track will make a huge difference as to who gets what. 

Unlike at the coast, Vermont will suffer little or no damage from this storm, so that's a plus.  If we get really, really lucky, we could get some badly needed rain. 

We will try to monitor this storm as best we can as the event gets closer.