Vermont Had Tiny Bit Of Rain Last Night, But Long Dry Spell Rolls On

Clouds increase over Hard'ack Hill in St. Albans,
Vermont yesterday as temperatures rose into the
upper 60s. Cooler today and tomorrow, but
dry weather continues for next several days. 

A tiny bit of rain fell on a few parts of Vermont overnight with the latest cold front, but we still really need the rain.  

Thankfully - so far - drought conditions haven't really worsened, according to the latest weekly U.S Drought Monitor, released yesterday. 

Just like the week before, 14 percent of Vermont was in drought and 81 percent of the state was either in drought or abnormally dry, according to the report.  I'm guessing drought conditions worsen more slowly in the late autumn than in the spring and summer. 

Still, things might get worse as very little rain is forecast for the next week. 

Last night's rain was "heavier" than expected in a few spots, but that means there was a few hundredths of an inch of rain instead of sprinkles. Burlington has 0.08 inches overnight. Many other towns had nothing at all. 

Yesterday was also one of the warmest days, if not the warmest day we'll see until next spring. Burlington and Rutland reached 67 degrees. Montpelier was 68 degrees. Springfield reached 70. 

It's cooler today, but we're breaking the trend of each cold front bringing ever more chillier weather. True, today and tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, but not colder than the last chilly day we had earlier in the week. 

We're now back to the routine of dry, sunny days. At least generally. Let's get into the daily forecasts as always. 

TODAY

We started out really mild for this time of year. Most of us started the day with temperatures in the 50s. Since a cold front has just come through, those temperatures won't go anywhere. In some spots, they might fall a little during the day. 

Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest. The skies will be mostly cloudy because of the cool, unstable air coming in. Those clouds could yield some sprinkles in the northern mountains, but that's it. 

The wind and the overall dry conditions are keeping the fire danger high across the state.

SATURDAY

We're back to the usual weather: Sunny, cool and dry. After the typical frosty morning, temperatures will rise to the low 50s by afternoon. Winds will be lighter, too.

SUNDAY

Rinse and repeat. A frosty morning, then a sunny, bright day. It'll be a little warmer than Saturday, with highs well into the 50s.

NEXT WEEK

The dry weather pattern will be slowly trying to break down, but it will take time to do so. 

It'll be dry and relatively mild during the first half of the week. 

By Tuesday. a storm will be causing some rough weather in the middle of the nation. But weather systems will still be gummed up, so it will probably take until the end of the week before we see any rain.

Plus, the computer models always argue over sluggish, weird weather patterns, so we don't know how much rain we'll get or when it will arrive. But we hope it turns out to be a real soaker. We need it. 

Vermont Dry Spell Continues; Wind Increases Fire Risk Today, Tomorrow

The last gold leaves of the season cling to a tree
under yesterday's clouds on Wednesday in St. 
Albans, Vermont. 

Technically the long dry spell ended in Burlington yesterday. 

As expected, almost all the clouds we had Wednesday yielded just virga - which is rain that falls from clouds but dries up on the way down. 

However, a thicker cloud passed over parts of the Champlain Valley toward evening, and that yielded a whopping 0.01 inches of rain on Burlington. In other words, nothing that would change how dry it is out there. 

TODAY

The fire risk is even higher than it has been lately, mostly because the winds will pick up today. We'll get into it a bit. 

Skies have cleared, and we had mostly a blue sky dawn, with a little haze and valley fog. Some places started the day with calm winds, and others, mostly in the Champlain Valley, had somer south winds. 

That has led to a wild range in temperature. At 8 a.m., it was near 30 degrees east of the Green Mountains. Meanwhile, it was 51 degrees in Burlington.  

Temperatures will even out nicely by this afternoon. And it will be a warm one. Possibly the warmest day until next spring. Maybe. Highs should get into the 60s. Maybe 70 degrees in the warmest valleys. 

The real problem is the wind. The humidity remains low, and winds will increase from the south. The fallen leaves are now crispy and dry, and the weeds that grew all summer are dead and dry. We've already had some brush fires this week. With the gusts today, the chances that that fires could get out of hand have gone way up. 

So today's a good day to not thrown your cigarette butt out the window, or do any backyard fires. Be careful out there.

FRIDAY

Another cold front will come through late tonight or very early tomorrow. There might be another sprinkle or two overnight in northern Vermont and in the Green Mountains. But again, nothing to end the dry spell. 

Cold air will be flooding in, but it won't be as cold as the last round. Highs should hold in the 50s. But instability clouds will clutter the skies, and a few sprinkles will dot the northern Green Mountains.  However, any sprinkles won't make a difference. 

It'll be breezy, this time from the west and northwest. So again, fires that start would spread quickly.

SATURDAY

We're back to the pattern we've been in for a couple weeks. The day will start frosty and cold. By afternoon, we should up near 50 degrees, maybe low 50s in the warmer, broader valleys.  Probably wall to wall sunshine, too. 

SUNDAY

Another day, another repeat. Cold and frost to start, with sunshine dominating. There might be a few clouds up there in the sky, but overall, another gorgeous day.  It'll be a few degrees warmer than Saturday, with highs up in the 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

The dry weather will continue well into the week. The weather pattern will eventually change, but it will be slow to untangle. It still looks like it might finally rain - really rain - toward the end of the week, but it's hard to promise anything yet. The computer models are still arguing fiercely with each other over this. Vernon

Frigid Vermont Morning, Then Today's Clouds Will Try To Rain, But Fail. Fire Risk Continues

Late autumn in Vermont, as seen yesterday near Sheldon.
Blue skies, a harvested corn field, and stick season
nearly completely underway.

As dawn broke this morning, the atmosphere here in St. Albans took on a temporary pinkish hue. That was the sun breaking past the horizon and lighting up some high clouds that had moved in overnight.  

Those high clouds prevented temperatures from bottoming out as low as they could have. Still it was cold. Really cold.

Everybody in Vermont was down in the 20s early this morning. A few places in the Northeast Kingdom might have seen the upper teens, since they were the last place in the state to see the high clouds. 

The dry weather has prompted brush fire problems in Vermont, which seems to be an increasing issue in recent autumn in the Green Mountain State. 

On Tuesday, a vehicle burst into flames on a remote access road in Jericho, the fire spread into the woods, burning about an acre before firefighters stopped the blaze. 

It's been a busy fire year, at least in terms of Vermont acreage burned. So far in 2026, 296.5 acres have burned, the most since 2016. It's even more than the super dry autumn of 2024.

More fires are definitely possible in the coming days as little or no rain is coming. Now, the daily forecasts. 

TODAY

Today's clouds are now established in Vermont, and they'll lower and thicken a bit during the day. Usually that means rain, but nope, not for us. 

Actually, it probably will rain some from the high and mid-level clouds that cover the skies today. Chances are, weather radar will light up at times with what appears to be rain. 

But, remember, our air is still quite dry. In their forecast discussion this morning, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington says rainfall will evaporate by the time it gets down to 5,000 or 6,000 feet elevation, so it won't even hit the tallest peaks of the state.

Sometimes the clouds will be thinner at times, so a little sun might get through at times. The clouds will keep high temperatures in the low 50s.  

THURSDAY

The sunshine will return tomorrow. South to southwest winds will increase, boosting temperatures into the 60s. Maybe 70 in the warmer valleys. Since the air will be dry and the winds will be gusty, it'll be a real fire risk day.  So be especially careful with fire tomorrow. 

Another weak cold front will come through at night. There could be a few hundredths of an inch of rain north, probably little or nothing south. It won't make a difference in the dry weather. 

FRIDAY

The cold front will have gone through and somewhat gusty west winds. The air mass coming in won't be as cold as the one we had yesterday, despite the fact that another big, fat, high pressure system coming in.  Highs should reach the 50s. 

The sky won't turn crystal clear like recent cold fronts, so we'll call it partly cloudy.   It'll be another high fire risk day with the dry air and wind. 

SATURDAY

Back to the routine we've been in. A cold, subfreezing start, then sunshine, blue skies and highs in the low 50s. Beautiful, but too dry. At least the winds will be light, which means existing or new fires won't spread especially fast. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Broken record weather again. A subfreezing dawn, a sunny day, a little milder, highs well into the 50s. 

Speaking of broken, the pattern of big fat, dry high pressure systems will finally begin to break. A little rain might come through Tuesday. One last big, fat high pressure might brush past us mid-week. 

It's beginning to look like a much wetter storm could, maybe hit us late next week. It's a long range forecast, so no guarantees that we'll actually get the rain. But at least there's hope. 

 

California Surfer Dude Is Unlikely High Quality El Nino Journalist As Pacific Ocean Swamps Coast

Blair Conklin, an unlikely and very good citizen 
journalist, seen here covering record tidal 
flooding Monday in Newport Beach California. 

Sometimes, reliable, related about and well-reported news comes from unlikely sources. Especially these days.  

Meet Blair Conklin, a surfer dude from southern California. He's straight from Central Casting. He's got a big mop of curly blonde, sun-bleached hair. 

What appears to be a perennial tan. He's got that cool dude California vernacular, at least a little bit, when he talks.  Even is first name fits the part. 

Conklin, a native of Laguna Beach, is an accomplished award-winning professional skimboarder and surfer. He's got a very popular YouTube channel called SkidKids, that has 4 million followers and mostly deals with surfing and California beach life. 

Lately, the southern California coast has been swallowed up by El Nino.  The warm water has stirred up numerous hurricanes off the Mexican west coast, sending battering swells long distance into California beaches. 

El Nino has also produced a Kelvin wave, which sharply elevates water levels along the California coast (It brings warm water, which expands compared to cold water.) 

El Nino also is starting to bring storms to southern California. This week, the Kelvin wave combined with unusually high King Tides have caused record flooding. 

And one of the best places to find information about this is Conklin's SkidKids YouTube channel. 

Conklin has been all over this story. 

Lots of media outlets have been covering the wave-battered homes, some of them red-tagged, the crumbling cliffs, the flooded streets and alleys. 

But our surfer Conklin knows his coast, the tidal patterns, how waves behave when they crash onto the coast, how the swells remove sand from the beaches to make the waves that much more destructive. 

The result is some of the best journalism connected to this slowly building California coastal disaster. Right there on his SkidKids channel. He knows the area, and he's good working with a cell phone camera and a drone. 

Conklin shows us how the waves are causing new problems, and worsening old ones. He shows us how abrupt, weird October tropical downpours can flood streets in an instant. He shows how high tide flooding gets around barriers and sand bags.

He even apparently broke some news. Earlier this month, CalTrans shut down one lane of a section of the Pacific Coast Highway in Laguna Beach. It seems the public was at first unsure why. Conklin then posted a video showing a large crack had developed on an embankment supporting part of the highway. 

Battering waves had eroded the base of the embankment. Conklin also followed the story as CalTrans put tarps over the embankment, hoping to prevent heavy rains from making the situation worse. 

The news over the past couple of days has been the record tidal flooding, caused by the Kelvin Wave/King Tide one-two punch. 

Earlier today, Conklin took us the the famed Balboa Peninsula in Newport Beach, where serious tidal flooding hit despite efforts to building barricades and sandbag walls. It's really a great in-depth video to help us understand what California is facing this fall and winter. 

Not all citizen journalists are that good, of course. They have agendas. They make assumptions. They don't know how to ask good questions. They don't know how to find good, accurate information. But every once in awhile, you get a good one like Conklin. 

I'll be relying on him all winter for weather news from California. Even if I am an old, landlubbing, inland Vermonter who doesn't know the first thing about surfing. 

 

Back To The Constant Sunshine In Vermont After Monday Clouds

It actually rained a little in St. Albans, Vermont 
Monday. Just a little. But it's back to the dry weather 
through next weekend. Perhaps a few light rain
showers Thursday night north, but that's it. 

 If you are somehow sick of sunshine, you must have enjoyed yesterday, unless you are in southern Vermont, where the sun stayed out for at least a decent part of the day. 

Far northern Vermont actually had a little rain during the day. Enough to dampen the ground. 

Here in St. Albans, we actually measured 0.03 inches of rain. Burlington had a trace - nothing measurable - so officially, the dry spell there goes on. 

This morning, we were back to the same routine. As dawn broke, skies were clear, temperatures statewide were below freezing.  

This clear sky trend will continue for the next few days, at least generally. But signs are pointing toward this sunny stretch ending, eventually. 

TODAY

As expected, the sun will stay out all day under blue skies. It'll be chilly, with temperatures holding the 40s. A steady north breeze will make it feel even chillier. Super dry air will make things feel especially crisp. 

WEDNESDAY

We're sticking with the forecast for a frigid start to the day, with lows across Vermont still expected to be mostly between 18 to 25 degrees. But the sunshine will draw afternoon temperatures back into the comfortable 50s. 

It might not be completely sunny. A weak disturbance looks like it might thrown some high clouds our way. Still absolutely no rain, though. 

THURSDAY

Another chilly start, another sunny day. Southwest winds will bring temperatures up to the low and mid 60s. This is a day we might have to really watch the fire danger. The dry spell, and all the fallen leaves, have raised the fire danger. The winds could spread any fires that start, so be particular careful. 

The next cold front is scheduled to come through Thursday night. It'll be very similar to yesterday's. Maybe, just maybe it'll have a tiny bit more oomph to it. That means northern parts of the state could eg a few paltry hundredths of an inch of rain. Probably nothing further south. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

The next big, fat high pressure system comes in. As a sign that this pattern might eventually break down, this big, fat high pressure system might not be quite as big, quite as fat as the last few. Still, it will ensure more sunny skies.

It'll be a little cooler, but perhaps not as cool as today. We'll be back to subfreezing mornings and highs in the 50s. Same conditions on Saturday. Sunday could be a little warmer, with readings maybe in the upper 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

At first, we might be in a battle zone between a last big, fat high pressure from Canada and a storm coming up from the southwest. This would be our best chance of rain since mid-month. It won't be huge, and there's still a chance the high pressure could deflect the storm to our south. So stay tuned.

If that misses us, we have a shot at another rain late in the week.  

September Was World's Second Hottest. Oceans Set Record For Heat, Portending Wild El Nino Winter

The world was hot again in September, the second
hottest on record. The eastern Pacific Ocean was 
especially hot, thanks to a record-breaking El Nino

The world had its second hottest September on record, continuing the global heat boosted by El Nino, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.  

The data follows a trend of recent hot months, as most months this year have been either the warmest or second warmest on record.  

Climate change has a lot to do with it. But a record setting strong El Nino is further boosting worldwide temperatures.

As you'd expect, there were widespread areas of much warmer than normal temperatures around the globe. 

Obviously. the eastern and central Pacific Ocean was roasting, as that area is the epicenter of El Nino. 

Other especially hot areas were the southern and central United States, Mexico, western South America, parts the Arctic, southwestern and northeastern Europe, and large portions of Asia, western Africa, the Indian Ocean, and western and southern Australia.

Even during a month in which the world is practically on fire, you're going to have a few cold spots. Some spots in the Arctic and Antarctica were a little on the cold side. Also, some areas of western north America and southern Africa. Despite the cold spot or two in the Arctic, that region overall still had its hottest September on record. 

The world's oceans were hot. Really hot. 

According to NCEI's report: 

"For a fourth consecutive month, the global ocean surface temperature departure set a new record high, averaging 1.98 degrees F above average for September. This value represents the highest ocean temperature departure for any month on record, edging out the previous all-time record set only last month, August, 2026."

This is ominous. Such huge amounts of heat stored in the oceans, could help the atmosphere really go into overdrive during the next several months at least.  

With all that hot ocean water, tropical cyclone activity was above average. In September, the world saw 10 tropical storms, nine of which reached hurricane status. Or typhoon status, same thing. Six of these storms became major hurricanes. 

The eastern Pacific north of the equator, with its record ocean heat content due to El Nino, was super busy, to say the least. There, eight tropical storms formed in September,  tying a record for most during September. The tie is with 1994, 1997 and 2015. Eight of the storms ended up being  . Five of those were major hurricanes.   

The years 1997 and 2015 were big El Nino years, so that makes sense. 

One of them, Category 5 Hurricane Polo became the second most intense eastern Pacific hurricane on record. Only Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was stronger. 

On the other hand, El Nino causes strong upper level winds over the Atlantic Ocean. Those winds tore apart and tropical systems that tried to form. In September, four tropical storms managed to form - briefly - before being ripped apart. No hurricanes formed. 

This is the first times since satellites started keeping a constant eye on the Atlantic that no hurricanes formed by the first of October.  

UNITED STATES

The Lower 48 had its warmest September on record.
The middle of the U.S. was especially hot. 

The Lower 48 of the United States had its warmest September on record, NCEI reported. It surpassed the previous record set in 1998, which was another big El Nino year. So far this year, four months, March, July, August and September were the warmest on record for their respective months. 

The September heat was concentrated in the southern and central United States. The month was dominated by a heat dome that stayed pretty much put almost over the entire month. 

Eight states- Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas had their hottest September on record. 

A persistent heat dome occupied the southern and middle parts of the U.S. pretty much all month, accounting for the heat. There were corresponding dips in the jet stream in the western and northeastern U.S., so those areas were actually pretty close to normal. 

Oklahoma Center, near the epicenter of the heat dome, had a September that was incredible 11.5 degrees hotter than normal.  Thirteen days reached at least 100 degrees. Only four days during September in OKC failed to reach 90 degrees. 

Oregon had its 42nd coolest September on record, making it the only state in the nation that was definitely on the cool side. That's out of the past 132 Septembers. Here in Vermont, were also weren't anywhere near any records. NCEI said the Green Mountain State had its 40th warmest September out of the past 132 years. 

A band from the Desert Southwest to central and northern Plains were definitely on the wet side, while the Southeast was dry, the NCEI said in its national summary for September. 

Arizona and New Mexico had their second wettest September record.  Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota and Ohio also had one of their ten wettest Septembers. As an example of how wet the middle to the U.S. was, Omaha, Nebraska had 11.92 inches of rain in September. Normal there is 2.96 inches. 

On the other side. Arkansas was the driest of them all, having its eighth driest September. 

Here in Vermont, we had our 46th driest September out the past 132 years. 

Now that we're almost done with October, it's pretty much a given that this month will end up one of the hottest Octobers on record, if not the hottest. Record heat waves have hit large parts of Asia, Africa, the Mideast and North America in recent weeks. 

We'll see when the next NCEI report is released in mid-November. 

Actual Clouds Out There In Vermont Today Before Wall to Wall Sunshine Returns.

For a change, the remaining golden leaves on the trees
this morning were not lit up by sunshine. A weak 
cold front is creating clouds in Vermont, but
much more clear weather is on the way. 

Well, Sunday was as awesome as predicted. Wall to wall sunshine once again.  

Temperatures were remarkably uniform - all the reporting stations in Vermont had highs between 62 to 65 degrees. That's a little warmer than average. Just beautiful. 

The dry air is still locked in, so despite the warm weather yesterday, it still got below freezing last night, at least east of the Green Mountains. 

Today will be a transition day between the warmth and a temporary leap toward really nippy weather. Let's get into it. 

TODAY 

We have an interruption in the long spell of sunshine, but it won't last long. The weak cold front is coming in and it definitely has clouds with it. More so than another, weaker cold front last Thursday. 

But don't count on any real rain. Radar shows a band of showers across southern Quebec, including through Montreal.  The band was sinking south toward Vermont, but weakening as it did so. 

During the later morning and early afternoon, some of those showers look like they might hang in there, a little. The dry air is wrecking the rain, drying it up as it falls. That means maybe sprinkles in the northern Vermont valleys, and perhaps a few hundredth of an inch on northern Vermont mountain summits. 

The temperature forecast is a little tricky today, which is a change from previous days. When nothing is happening, it's easy to forecast temperatures. It's a reason why yesterday's temperatures exactly matched previous forecasts. 

But today, with a cold front coming through in the middle of the day, and variable clouds, there's room for error in the forecast. The National Weather Service is going for high in the 50s north, 60s north. 

TUESDAY

Another in a series of big, fat high pressure systems from Canada will be moving in. The cold air will already be in place when we get up in the morning. We'll start the day with temperatures in the 20s, maybe a couple low 30s in the warmer valleys. 

North breezes on the front side of the high will keep us quite chilly tomorrow. Highs will be only in the 40s, maybe a couple low 50s in the warmer valleys south. We'll be back to wall-to-wall sunshine again. 

WEDNESDAY

We'll start the day with the coldest morning of the year so far. Temperatures at dawn will range between 18 and 25 degrees for most of us. So yes, definitely chilly. But we're back to the same pattern we've been in. By afternoon, the combination of sun and dry air will bring us up into the low and mid 50s by afternoon.

THURSDAY

The same weather pattern continues. Like the last two big, fat high pressure systems, this one will weaken and sink to our south. That means warmer southwest breezes will bring us back up to near 60 degrees by afternoon. After another subfreezing morning, of course. Sunshine will prevail, of course. 

FRIDAY

Yet another in our long series of big, fat high pressure systems will come in after another weak cold front. Maybe accompanied by a few light showers again, but don't count on it. But the weather pattern is finally showing signs of ending. This big, fat high pressure system might not be quite as big and fat as the previous ones. 

Still, it will be a rinse and repeat situation of what we've seen for the past couple of weeks. 

AFTER NEXT WEEKEND

As we always insist, long range forecasts are always iffy. But after next weekend, it's beginning to look like we'll have some chances of rain finally coming in. We need it, so we'll definitely welcome it if it happens.