Another Snowfall On The Way In A Relentless Vermont Winter

Latest snowfall prediction map for Friday's storm
Most of the snow will come in a hard thump
Friday afternoon and evening. Lighter snow
will come later Friday night and Saturday,
which is included in this prediction map

It hasn't come close to being the coldest winter on record in Vermont. It's not the snowiest one either. None of our winter storms have been especially huge or historic. 

But this winter has been relentless and long, with no real sign of a let up. Other parts of the United States have had tough weather, too, but most places haven't endured it for months like we have in northern New England.  

Some parts of Vermont established a snow cover around November 10 and the ground has been white since. WCAX reports that this year through February 18 has had the most consistent snowpack in Burlington since 2004. 

The snow will be on the ground for quite awhile yet, too.  Another snowstorm is coming Friday, and there might be more after that. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

This morning started cold once again, with temperatures in the single numbers and low teens. I notice Lake Eden, Vermont was at 2 below early today. Far southern Vermont, in places like Bennington and Brattleboro, stayed in the low 20s due to cloud cover. 

But, as last minute, adjusted forecasts late Wednesday afternoon indicated, those areas didn't get any snow, or if they did, it was just flurries.

The sun angle now is as high as it was around the third week in October. So when the sun is out, it can make a difference this time of year. Sure enough, temperatures should climb into the 30s, with maybe a couple upper 20s in the far northern Champlain Valley and near 40 in some southern Vermont valleys

But this will be a quick interlude until the next round of winter weather. 

FRIDAY

Like several storms we've seen this winter, we'll see a quick thump of pretty heavy snow, followed by a long period of light snow and flurries. Also, like many storms this winter, the timing will be atrocious. 

A storm heading into the Great Lakes will push a warm front toward us tomorrow. That will create a band of heavy snow that will push into Vermont during the afternoon. Most of the storm's expected accumulation will come during the first several hours of the storm, roughly from mid to late afternoon to late evening. 

This means it will arrive just in time for the Friday afternoon rush hour. 

Even worse, the snow will start out wet and heavy. It might even briefly mix with rain in the warmer valleys at the start.  Wet snow is often worse than powdery snow on the highway because car tires quickly compact wet snow into slippery ice. 

I'd suggest trying to work from home tomorrow if you can. And get your errands done before afternoon hits. 

The wet snow could also cause a few scattered power outages, but I don't believe this will be enough to cause widespread problems in that regard. 

The snow will turn much lighter and more powdery as it continues overnight Friday and into Saturday. During that time, the original storm will fade as a new storm takes shape near the New England coast. That storm will race eastward out to sea while strengthening 

The most snow will probably fall in the southern and central Green Mountains of Vermont and the east slopes of the Adirondacks of New York. In both those places,  a winter storm watch is up for an expected four to nine inches of snow.

The National Weather Service will probably issue a winter weather advisory for the rest of the region. Most of us will get three to seven inches of snow, if forecasts hold. All but one or two inches of that snow should fall in the first six or seven hours of the storm on Friday. 

AFTER THIS STORM

After the light snow tapers off Saturday, we have a period of seasonable late winter weather coming to Vermont. 

There's one literally big thing to watch out for, though. A powerful nor'easter will quickly form off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night and head to a position southeast of New England Monday.

As of this morning, computer models have been pushing the storm a little further northwest than previous forecasts suggested. It's beginning to look like the nor'easter  could bring coastal flooding, high winds and heavy precipitation to coastal New England. That is, if this northwest trend in the storm path continues .

If the current projected path of the storm pans out, southeast Vermont could see a little snow from this. 

There's plenty of time to watch this, so we'll update as necessary.

After that, the next chance of snow is next Wednesday. I don't see any signs of a huge warmup or major thaw for the next 10 days at least.  Your yard is going to be covered in snow for a long time yet. 

 

Vermont Wednesday Update: Winter Weather Advisory Dropped South, Storm Still Due Friday

Where'd the snow go?  The expected snow in southern
Vermont this evening. has gone pretty much gone poof
as an expected stripe of snow is weaker and further
 south this evening. 

Just a quick update for the evening: The snow that was going to hit southern Vermont with a few inches of snow is moving even further south than expected.

The winter weather advisory for Bennington  and Windham counties has been dropped. Far southern Vermont could still get a dusting to as much as an inch, but don't even count on that. 

This is a big switch since some forecasts two or three days ago had snow all the way to the Canadian border.  

Even after this flip flop in the forecast, there's still a slight chance southwest Vermont could get clipped with a little extra snow, since there's a very sharp line between nothing to the north and snowing at a good clip south.

If that line moves just 10 or 15 miles north, Bennington is back in play for snow. But it really doesn't look like that will be the case.    

Tomorrow will be a pleasant enough day with highs reaching the 30s in many locations. Forecasts still call for a 3 to 7 inch thump of snow Friday through Saturday. We'll see if there's any last minute revisions to that forecast, too.k 

I'll have a full update on Friday's potential snow in tomorrow morning's post. 

World Had Fifth Warmest January Despite Arctic Block That Kept Parts Of Europe, U.S.

January was the worlds fifth warmest on record 
Blocking high pressure in the Arctic kept that
region exceptionally warm, while parts of 
Europe and North America were 
a little cool as a result of that blocking

It might have seemed cold locally, but the world had its fifth warmest January on record, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information. 

"This marks the 50th consecutive January (since 1977) with temperatures, at least nominally, above the 20th -century average. The 10 warmest Januarys on record have occurred since 2007, with the most recent five years (2022-26),"  NCEI noted in its monthly report.    

When you look at the data and maps from this monthly report, you can really see in this report how a persistent blocking pattern messed with temperatures in the northern hemisphere. 

High pressure over the Arctic and Greenland made that area super warm compared to average. That was especially true in northern and western Greenland and northeastern Canada.

Meanwhile, this pattern squashed the frigid air in the Arctic southward. That's why the eastern United States, northern and central Europe and most of the western two thirds of Russia were on the cool side.  

The cold air was also forced to spread out over a larger land area by this pattern, helping keep the world's January as a whole cooler than it otherwise would have been overall. Also, the effects of La Nina, which tends to cool the world, would be peaking roughly about now. 

No areas came close to the coldest on record. 

Fifth hottest is still impressively warm. Given the factors above, January shouldn't have been that warm. Climate change is still ruling the roost. As we previously reported, an El Nino is brewing for later this year, and that could bring the world's temperature to new and dangerous heights late this year or in 20247. 

In January, 2026, besides the Arctic, other areas that were much warmer than normal were Africa, which had its warmest January on record. Other hot areas include central Asia, southern Australia, much of western Canada, the western United States and the Atlantic Ocean between the Caribbean and Africa. 

UNITED STATES

The data confirms it: We had a remarkable west-east divide during January. 

Data confirms the Lower 48 had a warm west and a 
cold east Note that western temperatures were
near record highs, while eastern temperatures
were generally just somewhat cooler than average.

The East had a real winter, while the West was having a year without a winter in January. As NCEI tells us: 

"Temperatures were much above average across a large portion of the western third of the (United States). Oregon, California, Utah and Arizona each had one of the six warmest starts of the year. Along with Washington, Nevada and New Mexico, they each recorded their warmest December-January period on record."

Thought the East was cold, the chill didn't come close to breaking records for the month. Ohio came the closest, ending the month as 31st coldest out of the past 132 years. Pennsylvania was 32nd coldest .

For the record, we in Vermont had our 75th coldest January, or 57th warmest January, depending on how you want to look at it. 

Mix it all together and the United States ended up having its 19th warmest January. 

Precipitation was scant, despite a wide-ranging winter storm toward the end of the month. January ended up as the eleventh driest on record for the Lower 48. The Northwest and northern Rockies were particularly dry. Oregon and Montana had their fifth driest Januaries on record. 

Only four states - Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico and Wisconsin were noticeably wetter than average and even those states did not come anywhere close to record wet.

Here in Vermont, we had our 48th driest January out of the past 132 years.  

January had a few other impressive weather events that I missed as they unfold.

On January 8 and 9 rare winter flash flooding occurred in parts of Wisconsin and Illinois amid a burst of record warmth that brought temperatures in the low 60s, and heavy rain. Up to three inches of rain fell near Chicago.  Chicago had as much rain in one day as they normally have in the entire month of January. 

Alaska had rough January. We already reported on the epic, record snows around Juneau in December and early January, which were followed by flooding. But two of Alaska's other larger cities had their own issues. 

The temperature in Fairbanks never got above zero for 32 consecutive days ending on January 14. That's the longest stretch of continuous subzero cold in more than 100 years.  Down in Anchorage, January snowfall set a record with 40.2 inches of snow.

On the warm side of things, St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands had their warmest January on record with an average temperature of 81.6 degrees.

 

Dramatic, Deadly Weather Has Returned To Much Of U.S. Blizzards, Wildfires And More

Wildfire entering neighborhoods in
Woodward, Oklahoma on Tuesday.
Wildfires and dust storms have
plagued the central and southern 
Plains since yesterday. 

We're entering the season in which storms and wind combine to create an enormous smorgasbord of dangerous weather. 

And that wild weather season is off with a big bang with a variety of scary weather going on around the nation. 

That weather action beganwith extreme wildfires in the central and southern Plains, dust storms, and drought-denting snow in the Rockies, feet of snow in the Sierra and a West Coast that has abruptly turned soggy after a month and half of uncharacteristic wintertime dry and warm weather

The new weather pattern is at least easing the harshest winter weather the eastern United States has seen in years or even decades. But the cost of this is dangerous storms that will eventually extend nearly  coast to coast.  

 WILDFIRES/DUST STORMS

 Wildfires raced through parts of northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas on Tuesday. One of the fires forced nearly 4,000 people to evacuate their Woodward, Oklahoma. Four firefighters have been injured so far. 

The Woodward County fire demolished three structures, including two a U.S. Department of Agriculture facility. 

One fire started in the Oklahoma panhandle and spread into Kansas, consuming 155,000 acres.  Video showed large fire whirls moving rapidly across the dry landscape and thick towers of smoke looming overhead. 

The storminess out west has helped produce strong, dry southwest and westerly winds across the Great Plains, which are already in drought. 

The winds died down slightly today, but not all that much, The fire threat hasn't gone away. A broad zone from eastern New Mexico to South Dakota and on to Iowa and Illinois are under a fire risk today.  To give you a sense of how chaotic the weather is in the Plains, southern South Dakota is under a fire alert today, while the northern part of the state, less than 100 miles away, is under a blizzard warning 

Wildfires are raging in Florida, too. A combination of drought, sunny, breezy weather and freezes earlier this month have turned the state into a powder keg. One fire in Vero Beach, Florida started from an illegal burn and threatened several homes.

Back in the Great Plains, dust storms also raged on Tuesday, especially in Texas, eastern Colorado and western Kansas and Nebraska.

 A dust storm on Tuesday along Interstate 25 near Pueblo, Colorado cut visibility and caused a 30-vehicle pileup. The crash killed four people and injured 29 others. 

Winds gusted to 68 mph in Amarillo, Texas and the relative humidity dropped to 13 percent. 

WESTERN STORMS

The storms shut down in California around the first of January, and pretty much no precipitation fell until this week. 

These new storms are easing fears that the lack of rain and snow might allow drought to start creeping back into California. 

The Sierra Nevada mountains are part way through a series of dumps that will leave several feet of new snow behind.  Some areas of the Sierra Nevada area had three feet of snow within 24 hours.Blizzards shut down all highways crossing the Sierra Nevada mountains, including heavily traveled Interstate 80. 

Nine back country skiers are missing and six were rescued following an avalanche near Lake Tahoe. 

 Video from Soda Springs, California, showed near zero visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow, The snow looked like it was accumulating very fast. Fox Weather had a chaotic report from the Heavenly Ski Resort in the Sierra amid almost zero visibility and a mess of stuck vehicles. 

There's an excellent YouTube channel called Tahoe Mountain Life that gives you just what the title says. Today's video on that channel gives you a great idea how things are like in this mountain blizzard. 

The UC Berkeley Snow Lab in the Sierra Nevada reported 29.3 inches of new snow in 24 hours and 57.5 inches within two days. Another two to three feet of snow is expected there by Friday. 

The snow level has dropped to 2,000 above sea level, which is quite a bit lower than it usually is. That
means more roads are either closed or dangerous for inexperienced winter drivers. 

A couple more feet of snow might fall up there by Thursday night.  It should stop snowing temporarily Friday, but more mountain snows should arrive Saturday and continue into the middle of next week. 

The heavy snow has been pushing eastward along the Canadian border through North Dakota, northern Minnesota and northern Michigan. Heavy snow with thunder and lightning over Duluth, Minnesota. 

SEVERE WEATHER

As if all this wasn't enough, a flash of severe weather is likely tomorrow in Indiana and parts of Illinois, Ohio and Kentucky.  There could even be a tornado or two. That's pretty far north to have a tornado this time of year. 

 

Snow To Miss All But Far Southern Vermont Today, But Statewide Snow Friday?

Still a bit of a canyon in the snow on the trip from my
front door to the truck in St. Albans, Vermont. Not
much snow melted over the past couple days.
Southern Vermont to get a little more snow later
today, and a few inches of snow looks likely
Friday and Friday night. 

 Yesterday afternoon, some clarity finally came into the forecast, and we learned that most of Vermont will avoid the snow today after all. 

The computer models finally got their act together and decided a cold front would push any snow coming in from the west more to the south. Only far southern Vermont is under the gun for snow today. 

However, there's a high chance of plowable snow Friday and Friday night. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY

The southernmost two counties of Vermont are under a winter weather advisory late this afternoon and tonight. So is central New York and the western half of Massachusetts.  As has so often been the case this winter, the snow will hit down there just as this afternoon's commute home gets under way. 

In the valley floors around Bennington, Shaftesbury in the west, and near Brattleboro in the east, it might start out mixed with rain or sleet as temperatures will be a little above freezing as the precipitation gets under way. 

In part because of the mix, and the warm temperatures, accumulation won't be huge, maybe 1.5 to 3.5 inches in Bennington and Windham counties. A little light snow might make it as far north as about Route 4 this evening, but that's about it. 

The rest of Vermont will have a pretty nice day.  Fog, low clouds and haze were mixing out to reveal blue skies this morning. High clouds will dim  and maybe blot out the sun this afternoon in northern areas as as that disturbance heads toward southern Vermont. The northern half of the state will also be cooler than yesterday. But highs in the 26 to 33 degree range aren't bad!

THURSDAY

Looks great! Sunny, with highs in the 30s to near 40 in southern valleys. The Champlain Valley will actually be the chilliest part of the state instead of one of the warmest, like it usually is.

When the lake is frozen, it's even easier for a shallow layer of cooler air hugging the ground to slip southward from Quebec into the Champlain Valley.. So highs there will only be in the low 30s, while nearby hillsides above that shallow cold air flirt with 40 degree in spots.  

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT

This looks like the moment that will cheer Vermont snow lovers. One storm will head up from the central Plains to the Great Lakes where it will fade in favor of a new one forming just south of New England. The new storm will then head eastward out to sea.

We in Vermont look like we'll be in between the two storms. That'll put us into a position to get a good but brief thump of fairly heavy snow Friday afternoon or evening, followed by a long period of light snow lasting through much of Saturday. 

Early guesses give us four, five, maybe six inches of snow out of this. It won't be big storm, but it will probably mean most of Vermont will end the week with a slight net gain of snow cover,  despite some thawing we've had.

I'll have more details on this storm tomorrow.

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

The Northeast looks like it will have a close miss early next week. A "bomb" nor'easter looks like it wants to form a little off the coast of North Carolina Sunday night. This thin will really turn into an absolute monster of a storm by Monday southeast of New England.

As it looks now, it'll probably cause some gales over Cape Cod and the islands.  We're lucky this thing will stay well offshore instead of hugging the New England coast.  If this nor'easter were to come right up into New England, there would be a blizzard with lots of coastal damage. 

We'll keep an eye on that nor'easter in case it wants to surprise us, but so far I think we're safe. 

Some really dramatic weather is hitting much of the U.S. I'll have a report on that here later today. For us in Vermont, it looks like we'll just keep being blissful bystanders.

 The weather pattern looks like it will stay active for us, with several small to medium sized storms possible through the first week of March. As it looks now, it seems like it might be cold enough so that most of what we get from those storms would be snow

Winter ain't over yet!  

The Pace Of Climate Change Is Accelerating. Will El Nino Make Things Worse?

The pace of climate change on Earth has quickened in
recent years. Will the faster pace get even faster, or
will things revert back to a more manageable pace.
That will have a lot of repercussions as how
we deal with a hotter planet.

 Now that it looks more likely an El Nino will set in later this year, scientists are debating how hot it will get. 

The three most recent years have been by far the world's hottest on record. El Ninos tend to make the world even hotter.

That's not good news. 

Since we're starting from such an already overheated position, will a new El Nino put ups on a  dangerous new trajectory in which the world will heat up at a new, faster pace. 

Or was it a hiccup, and we'll revert to a somewhat more relaxed but still scary increase in global heat?

Both options are bad, but the rapid heat up version is obviously most frightening, as we'd quickly enter a world where heat waves blow far past anything previously recorded and storms would make Hurricane Melissa look like a refreshing tropical shower. 

In the past decade or two, the past of global heating has accelerated. Which makes people wonder it were at the start of an era when things really spiral out of control.

WHERE WE ARE

A Washington Post analysis found that although the Earth has been warming for a century or more by now, the fastest rate of warming has been over the past 30 years. 

Per WaPo

"For about 40 years -- from 1970 to 2010 - global warming proceeded at a fairly steady rate. As humans continued to pump massive amounts of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, the world warmed about 0.19 degrees Celsius per decade or around 0.34 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Then, that rate began to shift. The warming rate ticked up a notch. Temperatures over the past decade increased buy close to 0.27 degrees  C per decade - about a 42 percent increase." 

In matters of climate, a decade is a really short period. So this new intense rate of warming might be a big deal. Or it could be a blip caused by factors other than fossil fuel emissions.

Ominously, a number of climate scientists are leaning toward the idea that this is a real acceleration that will last, especially since it's been so robust.

 "There is a greater acceptance now that there is a detectable acceleration of warming," said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather.  

Many people in the eastern half of the United States can be forgiven if they think climate change is sputtering, since it's been so cold there. 

However overall, January was the world's fifth hottest on record. (I'll have more details on January in a separate post). 

While the eastern U.S. froze many other parts or the world were ablaze with unseasonable heat. Much of the western third of the United States has had a record warm winter. Nuuk, Greenland ran an incredible 20 degrees warmer than normal during January. And are plenty of other examples. '

In other words, the recent cold weather was just a temporary fluke. 

EL NINO URGENCY

This idea that climate change might be accelerating isn't all that new. The buzz began in earnest when 2024 became the hottest year on record. This, after 2023 absolutely obliterated 2016 as the previous worldwide record for hot year.

But as we went through 2025, a La Nina pattern that usually cools the Earth barely moved the needle downward. Last year was the third warmest on record, barely behind he previous two years. Now that La Nina is fading, we're starting at that high base line for when El Nino roasts the planet toward more records,.

The cooler La Nina was fading fast this month. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center last week said we'd go into neutral conditions soon (neither La Nina or El Nino). El Nino would probable wait until autumn to arrive. 

 Since El Nino is starting later this year, climatologists are beginning to make 2026 seems unlikely to become the hottest year.  

The UK Met Office is predicting 2026 will end up as second warmest, behind 2024. Which means it will be slightly warmer than the hot years of 2023 and 2024

Hausfather thinks 2026 will be among the top four hottest on record.

 The year to watch is 2027 when, if trends continue, the unprecedented global heat could turn especially intolerable.

WHY IS THIS HAPPENING?

So why didn't the La Nina we just experienced over the past year or so fail to cool the world down noticeably?

One explanation for the added warming is pollution controls. We've seen news on this before, too. Asian nations, and the shipping industry have cut back on sulfur pollutions. Those environmental laws have removed particles called sulfate aerosols from the atmosphere. 

That allows the sun to shine stronger and brighter, heating the world even more.  

However, as WaPo explains, the missing sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere doesn't  explain all the recent warming.  Neither does natural variability.

Scientists, said they've notice low-lying cloud cover has decreased. Those clouds reflect sunlight. Fewer clouds mean more heat. 

One question is why are the clouds disappearing?  Clouds tend to form around particles. A lack of sulfate in the atmosphere might mean fewer particles for clouds to develop. This could create a feedback loop. Fewer clouds mean more heating. That additional heat makes still fewer clouds form, and it all feeds on itself from there.  

The Washington Post explains the question

"If most of the current record warmth is due to changing amounts of aerosol pollution, the acceleration would stop once aerosol pollutants reach zero - and the planet would return to its previous, slower rate.

But if it's due to a cloud feedback loop, the acceleration is likely to continue - and bring with it worsening heat waves, storms and droughts. 'If there is a strengthening cloud feedback - a positive cloud feedback associated with warming - that's going to persist,' Hausfather said."

The  bottom line is, we're playing with fire. The faster climate change moves, the harder it will be to adapt to it, and the more damage and suffering we'll encounter. 

This should be a sign we ought to double down on reducing fossil fuel emissions, and quickly. Humankind has barely been able to manage the changing climate so far. If things go a lot faster than they are now, god help us.  

After A Springlike Monday, Winter Returns To Vermont

Huge pile of snow an ice at my front door that 
crashed down seconds after Henry the Weather
Dog warned about it. Thawing temperatures
today will continue to sent ice  and snow
sliding from Vermont roofs

I hope you had a chance to go outside yesterday. It was such a relief to go outside without 15 layers of clothes on. Temperature in the 30s felt like hard core spring compared to what we went through this winter. 

And I have to give great kudos and thanks to Henry the Weather Dog.  He's just a little guy.weighing in at 18 pounds. 

We went outside yesterday afternoon to investigate just how warm it was getting.  The two of us were finishing up and were about to go in through the front door  of the house

A tiny piece of ice fell off the roof. Then Henry heard a noise that I didn't notice. He bolted away from the house. Since he was on a leash, he pretty much yanked me away, too. 

 As soon as we were far enough away, the entire roof load of ice and snow crashed down right where we had been standing by the door.

Both of us really could  have been hurt.  Good boy, Henry! 

That's just a reminder that there are still some big piles of snow and ice on roofs that could come crashing down, since it will be above freezing again today. You might not want to stand beneath one of those roof ice dams, or park your car there. 

Now on to the weather. 

TODAY

Henry the Weather Dog spent much of February like'
this, so he was happy for yesterday's warm weather
despite the close call with the snow sliding off the roof

A lot of us had a little wet snow and freezing drizzle this morning. It wasn't amounting to much and it will tend to taper off as we go through the day. I'm sure the weather this morning left some slick spots on untreated roads and sidewalks. It's still that time of year.

It was also mild overnight, which is a nice break on the heating bills. The Champlain Valley stayed in the mid-30s all night while the rest of the state was in the upper 20s for the most part. 

There's no real influx of warm air breezing in, so temperatures should stay in the mid and upper 30s today. A few warmer valleys could hit 40. There won't be much sun today, either.  No complaints here. That's still pretty nice for February.

That will be pretty much it for thawing for awhile. Daily high temperatures for at least the next week after today should mostly be near or below freezing. 

WEDNESDAY QUESTIONS

Frustratingly, forecasters are still struggling with what will happen tomorrow. A narrow band of precipitation will make its way into New England. Precipitation will probably come down at a good clip   for awhile in the midst of that band. Most of it should be snow, too. 

So who gets this slap of winter?   It's only a day before the event but the computer models are still struggling. At the moment, the snow band seems to be leaning toward setting up in southern Vermont.  

An early crack at guessing accumulations would bring three or four inches, maybe even five, to the southern half of Vermont. Central Vermont would get a couple inches and places north of Route 2 would see less than an inch. 

Don't be surprised if those  forecast amounts changes by tomorrow.  There's a chance that today's accumulation forecast turns out to be a complete work of fiction. Wherever this sets up, it'll probably come in right in time for the Wednesday afternoon commute. 

Beyond Wednesday, it looks like we'll stay in a wintry, active pattern. It won't be as cold as the first half of February was, but we're not getting an early spring, either. 

There's a solid chance of more snow Friday night from a mid-sized storm coming through. After that, several storms will pass fairly nearby through the rest of the month and into the opening days of March, but it's too soon to know how or even if they'll affect us here in Vermont.  

If you're tired of the snow in your yard, too bad. It's going to be there for awhile.