July 2026 in Vermont Was Mostly Humid, And Stormy

Stormy skies over Lake Champlain in July. The month
of July was relatively hot and quite stormy across Vermont.

 Not that you need reminding, but July in Vermont this year was humid, stormy and kind of hot. 

As measured in Burlington, the average temperature was 73.7 which was 1.3 degrees above normal. That doesn't sound like July was that hot,  but it was the 15th hottest July out of the past 136 years of reliable records. 

I always have to throw in this caveat. Normal nowadays is not your grandfather's average Vermont weather. 

 "Normal" temperatures are based on the average of what we saw between 1990 and 2020, when climate change had already taken hold. 

If this July happened in the 1970s or something like that, July would have been about four degrees above average. Hot Julys have become the norm in Vermont. Six of the top 10 hottest Julys have hit since 2018. 

Overall, the rest of northern Vermont was warm and dry, though it was paradoxically a humid and stormy sort of dry. In other words, not all that much rain came out of those muggy and roiling skies.

Weather stations across northern Vermont reported a monthly average temperature of a little more than a degree above normal.

Burlington had 3.18 inches of rain, which was nearly an inch below average. That turned out to be the 61st driest July out of the past 144 years of reliable records. Most of the northern two thirds of the state were dry, too. Given the fact that showers and storms tend to make summer rainfall highly variable, there were pockets of above normal precipitation. 

Montpelier's rainfall was 4.74 inches of rain in July, which was about a half inch above normal, But 2.45 inches of that came in one ferocious thunderstorm on July 9,

When you got toward southwestern Vermont, it was a little cooler than the modern average, and on the wet side. Bennington's average July temperature was almost a degree cooler than normal, Bennington also had 6.45 inches of rain, which was 1.8 inches above normal,

Much like in Montpelier, Bennington's wet month was due to one storm. They had 3.75 inches of rain on July 28-30, as they were on the edge of that epic storm that caused extreme flooding in New York's Hudson Valley. 

That same storm dumped over five inches of rain on some towns in the far southern Green Mountains. 

STORMY MONTH

The first half of the month was especially stormy. 

July got off to a literal bang on the first day of the month. Hot, oppressively humid weather help light up the sky with waves of severe thunderstorms. The worst of the storms sprung up abruptly in the Champlain Valley, leaving a trail of damage across northern and central Vermont into New Hampshire. 

An area around Underhill, Westford, Essex and Cambridge suffered especially severe damage.  Another wave of storms later that night filled the sky with continuous lightning

On July 9 storms blasted across northern Vermont, especially up in the Northeast Kingdom, nailing areas around Burke Mountain with intense microbursts. Flash flooding hit the area around Barre, but luckily, the flooding was much less severe that the past three Julys. 

Vermont braced for a severe storm and oddly strong tornado threat on July 14 into the early morning hours of July 15. Wildfire smoke squelched many would-be storms, so the problem wasn't as widespread as feared. 

However, supercell thunderstorms spewing microbursts caused lots of damage in a stripe northwest to southeast through Rutland and Windsor counties. 

On July 16, showers and storms developed along a weak southward moving cold front. The storms looked lame on radar, but the gust front packed quite a punch. More trees fell across northern Vermont.

Also, wildfire smoke made an appearance in Vermont, as I alluded to above. The worse of it was at mid-month when some big fires flared up in Ontario and northern Minnesota. Those fires tapered off later in the final weeks of July, so the smoke thinned, too. Just some haze from blazes in the western United States. 

Looking ahead to August, NOAA is predicting a hot month for most of the nation. However, the forecast gives equal chances of above or below normal temperatures in an area from the Great Lakes through the Northeast, including Vermont. 

NOAA is leaning ever so slightly on the wet side, so that's essentially a toss-up, too 

Flood Concerns Stay Off To Vermont's West As We Stay Warm. Humid. Wet Early Monday

Later summer garden in St. Albans, Vermont this 
morning. The gardens should get a decent drink of
water tonight and tomorrow from a batch of 
relatively heavy showers in the forecast

As expected, we're in a warm, humid regime here in Vermont with little sign of relief on the way. 

Forecasts have settled on the heaviest rain today and tonight in western and northern New York and in Ontario. There, flood watches are in effect. 

For Vermont, we should eke out a decent day, with clouds and sun, and a chance of a late day shower or garden-variety thunderstorm, especially northwest. Many of us will stay dry. Highs should reach the 80s this afternoon, and you'll continue to feel that humidity build. 

TONIGHT/MONDAY

Most of the rain Vermont gets will hold off until later tonight and the first half of Monday. This will more of a Goldilocks rainfall - heavy enough to give gardens and crops a good drink, light enough to prevent any flooding. 

NOAA has a slight risk of flash floods level two out of four, in the extreme northern 'Adirondacks and along New York's Canadian border. They've put Vermont in a marginal risk, level one out of four for flash floods in case a local downpour causes trouble. But that risk really looks pretty low.

We'll see some downpours and embedded rumbles of thunder within this but nothing particularly scary. There is a marginal - level one out of five risk of severe storms in the southeastern two thirds of Vermont, and much of the rest of New England, but this won't be a widespread outbreak of bad weather. 

The rain and downpours will tend to taper off as we go through the afternoon and evening. A little sun might come out as well.

TUESDAY

The pick of the week if you have outdoor plans. The humidity should temporarily dip to somewhat comfortable levels, with dew points in the low 60s. That's considered just slightly sticky but not oppressive. Sunshine should boost temperatures into the 80s.

WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY

We have a long spell of warm, humid air with a daily risk of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms every day. We'll be sandwiched between a strong Bermuda High off the East Coast and a dip in the jet stream well to our west.  So, little disturbances in that humid southwesterly flow of air will keep those chances of thunderstorms going.

We're into August now, so at least in some years, the change in seasons begins to take the edge out of the constant humid weather. There are signs that we could have a sort of autumnal spell by mid-month. No promises, but there's a chance. 

Flood Threat In Vermont Diminishes For Next Storm, But Does Not Entirely Disappear.

More rain on the way, but it doesn't look like enough
to cause more flooding. Most places should see an
inch or less Sunday night and Monday, though a 
couple places could see locally higher amounts. 

Weather forecasters are a little more relaxed about the chances of flooding with the Sunday night and Monday.  

We're still going to get a bunch of rain Sunday night and Monday. And we hope you like humid weather because we have plenty of it coming up. But overall, we're in the midst of a decent summer weekend. We've been lucky with these weekends. 

REST OF TODAY

A good summer day is underway once again. We've had a lot of Saturdays like this. The sun will be out most of the time. As far as rain goes, there's the slightest of chances of an isolated showers over the mountains, but that's it. 

Highs will top out in the mid-80s for most of us. It is kind of humid out there, but it won't be as oppressive as it could be. 

SUNDAY

We should make it through most of the day without rain or thunderstorms. Especially if you're in the southeastern half of Vermont. A slow moving "cold front" will be coming approaching grudgingly fro the west. A have "cold front" in quotations because it won't really drop our temperatures and the drop in humidity when it eventually comes through will be barely noticeable, 

It will get close enough to set off some scattered showers and non-severe storms late in the afternoon north and west, but not everyone will get wet. It'll be in the 80s again, and you'll notice the humidity getting worse. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

This is when the bulk of the rain and downpours come through.  There had been some concerns that a sluggish, weak but very wet storm would stall nearby, giving parts of our area another drenching and flood, like what happened in New York's Hudson Valley earlier this week, 

Instead, it looks like things will slowly progress through, so that - fingers crossed - it doesn't rain hard enough or long enough to set off any flooding. There's still a chance some locally heavy downpours cause problems, but overall, the chance of anything major look low, 

The rain should be more good than bad.  Some places, especially in the Northeast Kingdom didn't receive all that much rain this past week. As it stands now, it looks like almost everybody in Vermont should receive a decent half inch to an inch, with maybe locally higher amounts. 

I supposed there's a slight chance the forecast could once again flip flop back to a rainier, somewhat more dangerous scenario. So far, I don't see that, but of course, we'll update as necessary.

REST OF NEXT WEEK

The dog days of summer I've been talking about will continue. The weather set up with an offshore Bermuda high means very warm and humid air will keep coming at us. Tuesday will be the nicest day with a slight dip in the humidity and low to no rain chances.

The rest of the week will be partly cloudy, humid, with an ever-present chance of showers and storms. It's hard at this point to pick out which day will be the rainiest. It depends on the location of any little disturbances in that muggy flow of air. 

The clouds and showers should keep us under 90 degrees (with possibly one or two odd exceptions) But the humidity will more than make up for the lack of super hot air. Um, enjoy, I guess?  

Dog Days Of Summer Have Arrived In Vermont, Downpours Thrown In Sunday/Monday Too

A bumblebee enjoys a rose bloom this morning in 
St. Albans, Vermont amid our spell of humid air. Sticky
days will continue for at least a week along with
risks of showers and storms. 

It hasn't exactly been hot recently, but the air has felt rather sticky, here in Vermont and that state of affairs will continue for quite awhile. 

It's the dog days of summer, the nearly annual spell in which we're stuck in a long period of humid, warm air, with occasional spikes to a hot day or two mixed with rainy, thundery periods as well.

We're going to sweat it out in moderately warm air, and humidity that's moderately high until Sunday, when it will get even worse.Most of us will stay rain-fee under Sunday, when the weather forecast begins to turn iffy. Let's get into the details:   

TODAY

Partly sunny with that humidity is the bottom line.  Highs should get into the low 80s.

 noticed a couple showers early today in Addison and Rutland counties. That hints at enough instability in the air to trigger maybe an isolated shower or storm today mostly over the mountains. The vast majority of us will stay dry. though, and whatever does form shouldn't be scary. Just garden variety stuff.  

SATURDAY

Rinse and repeat. But it will be just a bit warmer as temperatures rise well into the 80s. 

SUNDAY

Here's where it gets questionable. South winds, which you'll especially notice in the Champlain Valley, will increase ahead of the next weather system. Those wind  will pump even more humid air our way, so Sunday will feel even more oppressive.

As it stands now, it looks like some showers and storms could develop in the afternoon and evening, especially in the northwestern half of the state. We still have questions on the timing and intensity of this thing, and those questions deepen Sunday night and Monday

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

It seems like the incoming front and weather disturbance will want to slow down near New England. We're pretty sure we'll see some heavy downpours around, but we don't know how long they'll last or just how heavy they'll be in any particular spot. 

The computer models have been windshield wipering between an ominous forecast of heavy rain lingering over the region for a long time, or downpours staying long enough to give us a harmless, beneficial soaking without a real risk of flooding. 

This morning's runs of computer forecast don't look all that ominous, but there's still a risk of locally heavy rain. And other model runs today might paint yet a different picture. 

In this morning's forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said they're hoping for  better, more concise guidance tomorrow on what might happen with this system. By then, well have better upper air sampling of how things are shaping. So stay tuned.  

BEYOND MONDAY

Whatever this system doesn't, it won't be one of those nice summer cold fronts that flush out the humidity for a few days. Instead it will stay warm, and probably get warmer. Temperatures might hold in the 70s amid steamy air Monday if there's a lot of clouds and rain. 

If we're lucky, it could briefly turn slightly less humid next Tuesday, but building warmth and humidity quickly return. It looks like a long stretch of very warm, humid weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week. 

MAGA Denial Continues As Wildfires, Boosted By Climate Change, Ravage Northern Hemisphere

Horses flee a wildfire in Biscarrosse, France
recently. There was no time to evacuate them,
so the horses released so they could run away
on their own. Followup stories reported 
the horses were later found and retuirned
to their owners. 

While MAGA was complaining this month about wildfire smoke wafting across the border into the United States, blazes were breaking out all over the Northern Hemisphere in a relentless, climate changed summer. 

MAGA has been complaining about the wrong thing, obviously. Climate change, the problem that most in the MAGA world deny, is driving much of this fire trouble. 

And, while MAGA complains about Canada supposedly not managing its forests and driving smoke south across the border, the Trump administration has cut forest management funds and jobs in the United States.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Wildfires are a risk every summer and fall, with or without climate change. These days, many of the blazes are turbocharged by climate change. 

The warmer world is helping make fires worse. As I noted in a previous blog, Canada and other far northern areas area especially susceptible to climate change. 

The snow melts earlier in the spring than it once did, leaving more time for the vast boreal forests to dry out. Summertime heat waves up north often set record highs. Hot, dry weather dries things out further. 

When weather disturbance finally grace the Great, formerly White North, the heat helps increase atmospheric instability. So you get lightning strikes. That set new fires amid a landscape that doesn't receive adequate wetting from the scattered thunderstorms. 

Europe is burning, too. It's the world's fastest warming continent, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service. 

The extra hot summers Europe has seen in recent summers are certainly killing thousands of people across the continents. That's the biggest problem. But that hot weather is also drying out the continent's woodlands, forests and scrublands, leading to enormous fires, some of which are burning as I write this. 

Here in the United States, the western half of the nation endured a record hot, dry winter and early spring. According to World Weather Attribution, the heat, particularly the hot temperatures in March, would have been virtually impossible without climate change. 

That heat early this year set the stage for the deadly wildfires in places like Utah and Colorado in the late spring and early summer.  A hot, dry spring and summer also contributed to serious wildfires in northern Minnesota. 

The Minnesota fires might have been made more intense because of our MAGA president. As the Washington Post reports:

"Last year, the Trump administration delayed a $10 million grant that was supposed to help Minnesota thin out about 4,000 acres of dense, dry forest at high risk of burning. Most of that work ever got started, according to five people familiar with the situation and a document reviewed by the Washington Post. And now, some of those areas are on fire."

The project would have removed decades of dead trees and undergrowth, creating breaks that would stop advancing fires. The grant would have paid for fire prevention efforts along a key 36-mile gravel road.  One of the two dozen lightning-sparked fires burning since the beginning of the month jumped the road and threatened houses. 

Remember, Trump and MAGA complained that recent big fires were so destructive and smoky in California and Canada because they didn't "rake their forests" or whatever he was trying to say. 

So, Trump & Co. canceled money that would have literally raked Minnesota forests. 

Even worse, many in the West and elsewhere fear that the 6,000 permanent U.S. Forest Service staff lost to layoffs, buyouts and early retirements as the Trump people keep decimating critical government work. The Trumpsters also wants to move the agenda headquarters to Utah and consolidate or close dozens of research centers and regional offices. 

Dave Upthegrove, Washington state's elected public lands commissioner told NPR: "These layoffs at the federal level are presenting risk to our ability respond to major wildfires."

U.S. Forest Service said in June that they have reached or exceeded seasonal hiring goals for woodland firefighting this summer. 

We shall see. It might be hard to tell whether firefighting capability this summer is as robust as it could be, amid the noise of all the wildfires out there. In the United States and elsewhere. 

THE FIRES

As of this past Saturday, 932 wildfires were still burning on Canada.  Those fires were burning in a  huge band from Yukon and the Northwest Territories and through northern Manitoba and Saskatchewan  into most of Ontario and central Quebec. More recently, there's also been a burst of new fires in southern British Columbia. 

The British Columbian fires are extending into the new United States fire hot spot in Washington and Oregon.  

In Washington, the Kaiser Mountain Fire not far north of the Grand Coulee Dam has covered more than 100,000 acres. That one is likely the largest of dozens of fires burning in the state. 

Down in Oregon, 1,200 wildfires were burning on Oregon. Crews were arriving in Oregon fro as far away as New Zealand and Australia to help. 

In Colorado and Utah, monsoon rains have tamped down, but not eliminated the fires. A turn toward drier weather will almost immediately help the wildfires power up again. The monsoon downpours hit areas where wildfires stripped the landscape of trees and vegetation that held the soil together. The fires also cooked the soil, so water runs off instead of soaking in.

These factors have already created huge flash floods and debris flow. One debris flow caused widespread damage in and below Cottonwood Canyon, where a fire burned through earlier this summer. 

Europe

As of Saturday, at least 250,000 people had been evacuated in France and Spain because of the fires. That includes 70,000 people evacuated in central Spain. That was said to be the largest European evacuation since World War II. At least one death was reported in Manises, Spain. 

The fire around Madrid was described as the worst in that city's history. 

The city of Bordeaux, France appeared to be in serious trouble.   The wildfire was described as a "firestorm"  last Friday but had later calmed down somewhat Saturday. Still, the Associated Press description of the wildfire fight sounds like a war battle:

"....fire crews and authorities were digging trenches, using retardants and taking other blaze-blocking steps. French Interior Minister Laurent Nunex said,  predicting a 'long and very difficult' battle."

The final stage of the Tour de France was shortened as thick smoke hit the region, CNN reports. 

Temperatures in western Europe are forecast to climb again this week, heightening the risk of new fires, and possibly making existing fires worse. 

During mid-July a wildfire swept through a section of southern Norway, destroying more than 100 homes. 

Finally, in what should be damp Edinburgh, Scotland, the second wildfire in three months ravaged Arthur's Seat, a landmark extinct volcano that offers sweeping views of the city. The fire came somewhat close to housing for students at Edinburgh University, but no damage to those structures was reported. 

Vermont (Mostly Dodged A Flood Bullet While Nearby New York's Hudson Valley Is A Flood Disaster Zone

Rescue operations during yesterday's big flood in
New York's Capitol District. Vermont dodged a 
bullet as the bulk of the heavy rain fell just
to the west of southern Vermont

 Phew!

Vermont is waking up to a little flood damage in the southern end of the state, but nothing catastrophic. 

The big flood came right up to our doorstep - taking out homes and business and roads and cars in the Hudson Valley just a short drive from the Bennington, Vermont area.

Nearly a foot of rain fell on some communities just south of Albany. Albany itself had just under seven inches of rain out of this. 

Rainfall totals in parts of far southern Vermont were impressive, too. A handful of towns in the far southern Green Mountains reported storm totals of around five inches. 

Any damage to southern Vermont is overshadowed by what happened in the Albany Capitol District, but I'm sure there's some road and driveway damage in some steep areas of the extreme southern Green Mountains. 

I saw reports of the Deerfield River in Wilmington running very high, and the Beaver Brook in that town over its banks. A sink hold formed on
 East Main Street in Wilmington. 

Vermont definitely suffers flood PTSD after the horrific floods of 2023 and 2024 and the lesser, but still destructive Northeast Kingdom flash flood of 2025. I saw a WPTZ report of nervousness in Montpelier on Wednesday as the devastating flood of 2023 is still fresh in everyone's memory. 

Montpelier was never forecast to have serious flood problems with this storm. And it turns out they only received 0.63 inches of rain through early this morning, which is less than had been expected.

To be on the safe side, the Vermont Urban Search and Rescue Task Force deployed two squads, one in Wilmington and the other in Ludlow to respond to any water crises.

So, anytime there's any sort of flood threat in Vermont, people get nervous. 

Believe it or not, Vermont isn't entirely free from flood threats over the coming days, though I'd emphasize that for now, it's just a weather system that bears watching Sunday and Monday. There's a chance that we could see some heavy rain on those days, but it's way too soon to say whether it will be just the usual brief summer downpours or something else.

Let's get into the daily details

TODAY

Kind of a grungy summer day with only a little sun here and there and an ever-present chance of showers. Much like yesterday, it'll be kind of humid but not that warm with highs in the 70s. 

The storm that brought the Hudson Valley flood is not entirely out of our hair, though the torrential rains associated with it are gone.  So many areas will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less today. The Connecticut River Valley, which especially north of White River Junction largely missed out on the rain, could get up to a quarter inch today. No biggie.

FRIDAY

 A nicer day, though still on the humid side. We'll have a fair amount of sun, a slight chance of a shower for storm, but most of us will stay dry. It should get into the low 80s in most of Vermont

SATURDAY

Typical summer weather continues. Still on the humid side, with sunshine. Like the previous days, there might be some haze in the air from wildfires out west. And a very slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm thrown in. Highs once again in the 80s.

SUNDAY/MONDAY

Here's where we potentially run into trouble. Some models have a humid summer cold front come through with the usual showers and thunderstorms and brief torrents of rain. If that scenario plays out, then we're fine. 

However, some models slow things down, and develop another small, sluggish but very wet storm somewhere over or near New England or New York. If that happens, we could have more flood problems somewhere in the North Country. 

For now, don't worry about it, since we don't know yet how this will play out. But you should listen to updated forecasts as we get closer to Sunday and Monday, in the off chance things go south again. 

 

Southern Vermont Still Above Water, New York Hudson Valley Badly Flooded

A historic grist mill said to date back to the 1700s 
collapsed and was destroyed amid floodwaters
today in New York's Hudson Valley. A few towns
south of Albany had nearly a foot of rain. So far,
no serious flooding has been reported in 
Vermont and the threat of flooding is 
diminishing in the Green Mountain State.

So far, as of late this afternoon, the epicenter of the flooding in the Northeast is not quite here in Vermont, but close to it. If we get through this evening, southern Vermont will have dodged a bullet.  

Parts of New York's Hudson Valley, especially in and around the Albany Capitol District, is inundated after what some are calling one in one thousand year rainfall amounts.

Some of those rainfall amounts in New York are insane. Castleton-On-Hudson, south of Albany, had reported 11.47 inches of rain by 3:30 p.m. Nearby Kinderhook had 11.37 inches. Several other towns had five to nine inches of rain

As you'd imagine, several communities around Albany were under states of emergency today. Many roads are closed, buildings are damaged and cars submerged. 

Southern Vermont's rainfall has so far fallen just short of enough to cause serious flooding. If the epicenter of the torrential downpours was just 20 or 30 miles further east, we'd have a different story on our hands.

Still, some rainfall totals in the southern Green Mountains are impressive. West Dover had 5.55 inches. Stamford reported 4.94 inches and Pownall had 4.54 inches. 

The far southern Green Mountains still face a flood threat for the next several hours as a weird storm continues to wander through New England, pulling in tons of Atlantic moisture along the way. 

As of late this afternoon, radar images of the storm's rainfall starting to look a little like that of a wintertime nor'easter. On the far northwestern flank, a narrow band of downpours was moving westward in northwest New York, toward Lake Ontario.

A band of moderate rain was twirling northwestward through central and northern Vermont. I don't think we need to worry about that piece of rain. It'll just wet down some areas that still need rain.   Lighter showers were falling between those two bands.

The storm itself seemed to be centered in the Berkshires of western Massachusetts Ahead of it, another band of Berkshires. A narrow, but very potent line of torrential rain was pinwheeling northward, then northwestward across central Massachusetts and toward southern Vermont. 

A flood warning went up for far southern and southeastern Vermont at  4:47 p.m. today because of that heavy rain band. 

Whether the flooding will be serious or not depends on how well that  band holds together and whether it keeps aiming at southern parts of the Green Mountain State,  The rain band did appear to be fizzling somewhat as it entered Vermont. And it was showing signs of pushing east into New Hampshire.   There's an excellent chance Vermont will have escaped another destructive flood. 

Further north into south central Vermont, places like Ludlow, Shrewsbury, Weston, Mount Holly, and Killington, the flood threat hs gotten very low. It's still possible an area of downpours could create a local problem, but I'm not really holding my breath on that one. I think you're safe. 

The rain ended earlier today in northern Vermont. But more light showers will come in, thanks in part to that band of rain working north across the state. More showers will follow overnight. But amounts will range from a tenth of an inch far north to maybe a half inch or a little more in central Vermont. 

Phew!