Friday Vermont Forecast. Some Snow Later Today Through Saturday; Large, Windy Storm Momdahy

We're back to the snowfall prediction maps from the 
National Weather Service. Through tomorrow,
the valleys should generally get about two inche
of snow, maybe a little less in spots, The Green
Mountains and southern Adirondacks, and
New Hampshire's White Mountains should
do great, with perhaps 4 to 7 inches. 

We watched the temperatures yesterday fall down through the 30s, and for many of us, it was below freezing by late afternoon or evening. 

This was nothing unusual for mid March, but it was a reality check after the record warm temperatures earlier in the week. 

Burlington did end up tying the record high for the date at 63 degrees yesterday. That came just after midnight very early in the day before a cold front arrived. 

Some of us got a dusting of snow last evening to remind us what time of year it is. We were still getting flurries here in St. Albans, Vermont early this morning. 

Ahead, we have one small storm first, and then one very large storm to deal with here in Vermont. Aside for a brief excursion into balmy weather Monday, it's going to be relatively wintry for awhile. 

I know, I know, but it's only March. Spring will get here eventually. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY/SATURDAY

We've got our small storm to deal with first. It's coming in from the west and will pester us from this afternoon through much of tomorrow. 

This one will be mostly snow. But the good news for those of you who are tired of snow is accumulations should be pretty limited in the valleys. The Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys should only see 0.5 to 2 inches. Even so, the wet snow could come briefly heavily this evening, so watch it on the roads. 

The mountains look to get much more, perhaps four to as many as eight inches. That will refresh ski resort slopes a bit after our huge thaw. There is a winter weather advisory from this afternoon to tomorrow afternoon in the southern and central Green Mountains.  

High temperatures both today and tomorrow will be in the 30s, so not far from normal for this time of year. That means the snow will mostly be on the wet side. They call this kind of snow sugar snow under the belief it adds moisture for the maple trees to produce more sap.

We should also have gusty winds at time as this storm passes through. 

BIG STORM

NOAA forecast map for Monday shows a powerful
storm centered over Michigan. This storm will 
give us a quick squirt of warm air and rain
Monday, followed by sharply colder air
We should also have a lot of wind with this storm.

The next storm will stir up a huge amount of trouble in the eastern half of the nation.  It'll start developing in the central Plains Saturday night, get to about Iowa Saturday night and the heat up into the central Great Lakes, strengthening all the while. 

It'll be a powerhouse with widespread high winds from the eastern Rockies to the East Coast. The system cause another severe storm and tornado risk in the Midwest Sunday and in the southeast Monday. A blizzard will unfold north and west of the storm track.

For us in Vermont, the storm will mean a brief period of mixed precipitation, a lot of wind, a brief zoom of temperatures up to 60 degrees or so Monday, along with rain, then an abrupt, sharp drop in temperature down to winter levels again

If we have any mixed precipitation it would be fairly light and occur Sunday night, at least the way it looks now. South winds would really ramp up Sunday night, too.

That warm air will engulf us Monday, but be short-lived as a powerful cold front comes in from the west. We're unsure on the timing of that front, but early guesses place it in Vermont early Monday evening, give or take.

That would leave us with temperatures rapidly crashing to below freezing, a quick changeover to snow showers, and strong winds from the north.

As always, we'll update this one as we get closer to the event. 

Montreal, Quebec City Endured Ugly Ice Storm While Warm Thaw Continued South Of The Border

While rather warm temperatures continued Wednesday
south of the border, Montreal and other areas of 
Quebec endured a day and evening long ice storm.

While places south of the border were basking in relative warmth Wednesday, Quebec was enduring an ice storm. 

Temperatures remained solidly below freezing in Montreal as freezing rain fell all day into the night. 

Even toward midnight, when temperatures in northwestern Vermont soared into the low 60s, Montreal remained stubbornly at 30 degrees, or minus 1 Celsius.

The result in Quebec was widespread travel trouble, closed schools and businesses and power outages.  Among the schools closes were Concordia and McGill universities. 

As of around 9:15 a.m. Thursday more than 212,000 homes and businesses were still without power in Quebec. The number of outages was down to about 65,000 by 4 p.m. today. 

Dozens of flights were canceled in Montreal and Quebec City. 

A similar but worse ice storm hit in April 2023. While trees collapsed under the weight of ice and power flickered out throughout Montreal and other areas of Quebec, areas just south of the Canadian border had thunderstorms and temperatures in the 40s on that occasion. 

So that's twice in three years northern Vermont just barely dodged very, very icy bullets  

One Widespread, Ominous U.S. Heat Wave Fades, Another, Much Hotter One Threatens West

The western U.S. is gearing up for what is expected to
be never-before-seen March heat over the next
week to 10 days. This will exacerbate drought and
water shortages in the region. After record heat
in the East, it will cool down some. 

Temperatures are cooling down today in the Midwest and East after a remarkable March heat wave that set hundreds of new record highs from the Plains States all the way to the East Coast. 

Now, meteorologists are already talking about another heat wave set to begin in the western U.S. That heat wave might well be easily one of the most extreme out-of-season heat waves ever seen. 

More on that in a minute. 

Climate change has turned the normal "false springs" of thawing weather and warm early season sunshine. 

Already this year. much of the western United States had be far their warmest winter on record. Even in the colder eastern U.S., brief warm spells set records. 

Now, we had the heat this week. Hundreds of cities saw record highs broken, over roughly half the United States. The record heat extended over a remarkably large area, from Oklahoma and Texas, through the South and Midwest and along the entire East Coast. 

Temperatures reached to near 90 in the Southeast, with one report as far north as Virginia 

Several places broke records for warmest for so early in the season.  Those include New York City (80 degrees), Georgetown, Delaware, (83 degrees), Baltimore, Maryland (85 degrees) and Burlington, Vermont (73). 

Some records were broken by wide margins. Up in Millinocket, Maine, it got to 70 degrees, beating the old record high for the date of 54 degrees. 

The unseasonable warmth set the conditions for an outbreak of severe thunderstorms in the Midwest. Abrupt thawing in northern New York and in Vermont created ice jams on rivers which caused some flooding. 

The expansive heat wave of the past week has ensured this was the warmest start to March on record for the U.S. 

A shift in the weather pattern is now bringing cooler air into the eastern half of the U.S., but is setting the stage for a dangerous, way-before-its-time heat wave out west.

WESTERN HEAT 

The expected heat wave in the West will be even stronger and more dangerous than the one now ending in the East

Per the Washington Post:

"There are many potential firsts for March on the horizon: It could reach 100 degrees in Los Angeles next week, after record-breaking 95 degree heat on Thursday and Friday. 

In Phoenix next week, temperatures could exceed 100 degrees several times. It could also reach the century mark in Las Vegas."

Phoenix could actually reach 105 degrees next week, which looks plausible given the expected intensity of the heat dome. If that happens, not only would Phoenix break its record for hottest day in March, it would tie April's  hottest recorded temperatures. 

 Record highs for the entire month of March could fall in Salt Lake City, Denver, Reno and other western cities. It's fairly rare to break a monthly record. It's especially rare to set one in mid-March, as temperatures are obviously normally warmer at the end of the month. 

This is insane. 

The impending heat wave is raising alarms about drought and water shortages this summer. Much of the reason is already in drought. The snowpack in the mountains is paltry, as what little snow that fell often melted.

Now this heat wave will melt snow at very high elevations, the way heat waves do in June.  That would leave little runoff to keep rivers running and reservoirs with at least some water for the summer. 

I wouldn't be at all surprised if this heat episode contributes to serious water shortages this summer.

Utah State Climatologist Jon Meyer said the state's snowpack is at record low levels and Utah's reservoirs are only at about 40 percent capacity.  "All this means we are likely to see some very tangible water supply cuts and conservation efforts by the state this year," Meyer told the Washington Post. 

The early heat waves make me worried about summertime. We've had our share of record heat during the summer in our climate change regime. Some of it has been unprecedented heat in recent years.

Will this be the summer when things really get out of control?

 

False Spring Is Over In Vermont After A Weird Wednesday, Welcome Back To Winter. And March Winds

The loss of snow uncovered this messy look in one of my
perennial gardens, but it's too muddy to clean  up yet.
And now the weather will be too stormy and wintry
over the next week to do anything about it.
Patience is a virtue during early spring in Vermont

It's kind of windy and chilly out there this morning, and gray, with a few showers around. False spring is definitely over. 

Before we get into what's happening next, we have to talk about how weird yesterday's temperature were. 

In the morning, it took time for northern areas to warm up after that intrusion of chilly air that actually caused an ice storm up in southern Quebec  

At 9 a.m. it was 49 degrees in Rutland, with thunderstorms approaching. A short distance away in Middlebury it was just 32 degrees. 

As we went through the day Wednesday, the temperature ranges expanded. At 1 p.m., readings ranged from 36 degrees in Highgate to 63 in Bennington. Meanwhile, freezing rain continued all day up in Montreal. 

Then it got really weird.

 Last night, a tongue of very warm air was able to head up through western Vermont. Highs reached 69 in Bennington and 63 degrees in Burlington after dark. .

The warm air lingered in Vermont until a little after midnight. It was still 63 degrees in Burlington at about 1 a.m., which means even though today is chilly, we still tied the record high for the date. Meanwhile, while it was in the 60s across northern Vermont very early this morning,  it was still just 30 degrees with lingering freezing rain not so far away in Montreal. 

The warm air never really made it into eastern Vermont, either. It mostly stayed in the 40s there.

Rivers this morning are still running high after all that snowmelt and rain. Though the rain was mostly a little less than expected, which is good.  There could be some low lying roads under water today. If you see that, don't drive through it. Please turn around and find another way around. Nobody needs to be fishing you out of an inundated car today. There's enough problems out there as it is.

BACK TO REALITY

At 4 a.m. today in Bennington, it was still 65 degrees. By 9 a.m., it was 36 degrees and snowing.  Except for a brief warm excursion we might see on Monday, winter weather is back and will prevail for more than a week. 

It won't be the intense below zero cold we saw in early February. It's getting  late in the season for that. But spring weather can't last forever this time of year!  

Expect a lot of breezy to windy weather, too. The March reputation for wind is no myth. The burgeoning forces of spring compete with the lingering claws of winter, and that creates a lot of tight temperature contrasts and storms. 

Hence winds.

An unbelievably huge area of the northern United States was under a high wind warning this morning. Those high wind warnings extended from Washington State all the way to Minnesota and Iowa. Slightly lower level wind advisories ran further east into Pennsylvania and New York. 

For us in Vermont, we won't get the worst of the winds, but you'll feel the chill from the gusts those winds create. Temperatures with those gusty winds should stay in the 30s today. 

THE NEXT STORM

A storm coming in from the west is set to give us a mostly light snowfall Friday night into Saturday. Low elevations will get near to a little above freezing during this episode, so a lot of valleys might only get an inch of snow, or even a bit less. The Green Mountain chain can expect a few inches. 

It'll be kind of windy from the south ahead of the storm Friday and kind of windy from the west after th storm Saturday. 

A BIGGER STORM

A much larger storm is due Sunday and Monday. It's still forecast to develop in the central Plains Sunday and get stronger fast as it eventually moves northward through the eastern Great Lakes. 

For us, the early guess is some snow will develop Sunday then turn into a mix and then rain overnight Sunday. Specifics on ice, how much and when aren't quite available yet.

This storm is, however, going to be a windbag and another opportunity to have wild swings in temperatures. Strong south winds look like they'll boost us at least into the 50s and maybe low 60s amid the rain showers Monday.

Then, strong north winds will plunge us into the 20s by Tuesday, with some snow showers. 

I'll have more specifics on this storm in a couple days, as it could be a bit of a humdinger. 

Another Deadly Spate Of Tornadoes In Midwest

Large tornado in Kankakee, Illinois yesterday. The same
supercell that produced this twister created additional
ones in Indiana, leading to two deaths. Photo via
Facebook, Storm Chaser Adam Lucio

 Less than a week after deadly tornadoes struck Michigan, more dangerous twisters swept through Illinois and Indiana last night, killing at least two people. 

The worst of it was in Kankakee County in Illinois and adjacent areas of Indiana. Two people have been confirmed dead in Lake Village, Indiana, where several other people were seriously hurt. 

As ABC 7 in Chicago reported, Lake City Fire Department Chief Rob Churchill said:"Total devastation, there were houses that were collapsed. There werre people trapped in  houses. There is livestock loose. Pretty much anything that you have seen before on newscast and on videos

He said the tornado trampled through 3.5 miles of town. Four firefighters and their own homes badly damaged. 

In Kankakee County, Illinois, nobody was killed by the tornado but nine were injured. Drone video from Kankakee showed houses completely leveled and trees turned into poles, completely stripped of any branches. 

The supercell also created havoc outside the path of the tornado. People in Kankakee said the hail was as big as their hands. One photo taken in the area showed a five to six inch diameter hailstone, which might end up establishing a record for largest hailstone on record for the state of Illinois.

Elsewhere, torrents of rain and hail hit parts of Michigan. In Grand Rapids. the hail fell so heavily that it clogged storm drains, leading to flooding.  Video showed vehicles in water at least up to the windows, with clumps of hail floating on the water. 

Other video from Grand Rapids show large piles of hail left over after being washed down hills. 

Oklahoma City and surrounding towns were under a tornado warning last evening. It's unclear if any tornadoes touched down, but there was wind damage in the metro area. 

Overall, there were 23 reports of tornadoes across the Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. 

The Washington Post is reporting that one reason for the rough start of the 2026 tornado season ins a marine heat wave in the Gulf of Mexico.

Water there has become much warmer than normal. Because the water is so warm, humid southerly winds coming off the Gulf carry more heat and moisture than they usually do. Heat and humidity are key ingredients for a tornado outbreak.

If any of the ingredients are stronger than usual, the severe storms and tornadoes can also become stronger.  

The bad weather had moved east by today. This afternoon, tornado watches are in effect for parts of Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia, and in eastern Texas and western Louisiana. 

After that, severe weather looks like it will become more subdues. There is a threat of some strong storms and maybe a few tornadoes in the South Sunday, but that's about it for the next week or so. 

The warmer Gulf waters, brought on by climate change,  have probably in recent years increased the severity of some severe weather outbreaks. That water has also worsened some hurricanes. 

Ice Jams, Flood Risk, Record Heat, Freezing Rain, Rain, Snow, Wind, Storms. Vermont March Weather Rolls On

Another view of an ice jam backing up water along the 
Missisquoi River in Enosburg Tuesday. The ice
jam closed Boston Post Road near Route 105.
Vermont is still  under a flood watch through
tomorrow

Mark Twain once said, "In the spring, I have counted 136 different kinds of weather inside of 24  hours."

He was referring to New England when he said it. I'd guess he might have been in Vermont in March when he came up with that gem. 

A day after we had a hottest for so early in the season warm spell in the Green Mountain State. temperatures this morning were in the low to mid 30s. 

As forecast, there were a couple drops of freezing rain in extreme northwest Vermont.  We weren't expecting much and there was even less freezing rain than the trifle we thought we'd get.

Before we move on, we should gaze back at the record highs, and how we are re-writing weather records in the age of climate change. March records have really shifted. Before 1990, Burlington had never reached 70 degrees earlier in the season than March 20.

Now with yesterday's 73 degrees - the warmest for so early in the season - it's been in the 70s eight times on or before March 20 since 1990. Six of those occasions have been since 2012.  

This isn't just a Vermont thing. Hundreds of record highs were set over the past few days in the central and eastern U.S. New York City reached 80 degrees, the earliest on record it's been that warm there.

Another record heat wave is set to begin next week in the western U.S. 

The switch to hot weather out West means we in Vermont will probably not be seeing more record high temperatures for awhile. 

A southward dip in the jet stream over eastern North America will keep colder weather and storminess in our neck of the woods for next couple of weeks. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

Eventually - later this morning or early this afternoon - the wind should swing back from a southerly direction, and that will pump temperatures back up in  to the 50s for most of us west of the Green Mountains. It'll probably stay in the mid and upper 40s east of the Greens. 

The good news is forecasters have cut back on the amount of rain we should expect between now and tomorrow morning. Don't celebrate too much, since we should still see enough rain, combined with snow melt and the last of the ice jams to keep us under a risk of flooding.  

The Otter Creek in Center Rutland is forecast to go into minor flood stage tomorrow. Other Vermont rivers are expected to get close to flood stage. And remember, these river level forecasts are iffy. Just a little extra rain, or a little extra snowmelt can make a big difference in how high the water gets.\

We should see some scattered showers, maybe even an isolated rumble of thunder here and there today. Much of the time should be dry, especially south and east. The rain should fill in to become more widespread later this afternoon and during the first half of tonight. 

THURSDAY

The sharp cold front will come in from the west mostly before dawn tomorrow, and that will send us back into winter. Temperatures will stay steady near the freezing point, or slowly fall during the day. Gusty winds will make it feel colder. At least the cold will shut off the snow melt and end the threat of flooding.

We could see some snow showers, but accumulations won't be anything to really worry about.

FRIDAY SATURDAY

A relatively small storm should come in from the west. We could get a couple inches of wet snow out of this later Friday into Saturday morning  By March, temperatures can be marginal between rain and snow. We'll want to take a closer look at this when we get closer. 

SUNDAY/MONDAY

A larger storm is looming for the end of the weekend and start of next week.  This far ahead, it's hard to tell exactly what that means for us. For now, meteorologists are going with a period of snow and mixed precipitation Sunday, followed by a brief squirt of warm, windy, showery weather Monday, followed cold north winds and some snow Monday night and Tuesday. 

Since that storm is several days away, don't be surprised if the forecast for how it plays out changes big time. 

The cold wave next week looks pretty sharp and intense, even if it does't last all that long.  But we are possibly looking at a couple days with highs in the 20s and lows in the single numbers. Our false spring will definitely be over by then! 

After that cold wave, as usual, the weather forecast gets  really uncertain. But that's OK, we have more than enough on our plate for now. 

  

Tuesday Evening Vermont Weather Update: Shockingly Warm Today, Still Expected Yo-Yo Temperatures Now Through Thursday

Henry the Weather Dog on Tuesday got to do something
he hasn't really been able to do since October: Bask in the
warm sun. You can sort of see him smiling there
he was so happy 

The warmth in Vermont and surrounding areas really over-performed today, didn't it? 

It felt almost like summer. Henry the Weather Dog was able to bask in the warm sun for the first time since October. He was one happy camper!

I think some compressional warming ahead of the cold front that entered northern Vermont this afternoon helped boost the temperatures. The front, as it pushed southward, sort of squeezed the air, i.e. compressing it. When air compresses it tends to warm up. 

Whatever caused it, things were incredibly balmy.  Burlington reached 73 degrees, according to preliminary data. That  shatters the previous record high of 63 set in 2002. It's also the hottest temperature for so early in the season. Those "so early" or "so late" in the season record highs are especially hard to achieve. But Burlington managed it today. 

Other record highs include 63 degrees in Plattsburgh, NY; 71 degrees (wow!) in St. Johnsbury (old record was 64 in 2016);  and 67 in Montpelier, old record 60 in 2016). 

 Rutland and Springfield got up to at least 70 degrees, Bennington was at least 73 degrees. So much for my prediction this morning that there was just a chance a place or two in Vermont might reach 70.  Instead it was pretty widespread. 

The temperatures I listed are not final figures, so they might be updated later.  

COLDER AIR

I mentioned the cold front. Once it arrives it means business. Highgate was one of the first Vermont towns to see the cold front. They got up to 66 degrees at around 1:30 and were down to 51 buy 5 p.m. Burlington dropped ten degrees to 59 in the hour ending at 5 p.m. 

In most of central and northern Vermont, temperatures will bottom out in the 30s, and it'll get below freezing in some spots north of Route 2.  The northern Champlain Valley has the best shot at going below freezing. 

A winter weather advisory is still in effect for Grand Isle County late tonight and tomorrow morning for the risk of light freezing rain.  There could be some icy spots on the roads tomorrow morning there. And perhaps elsewhere in far northern Vermont. 

At least Vermont will miss out on the worst of this ice storm. Far northwest New York, southern Quebec from Ottawa to Montreal to Sherbrooke, northern and Central Maine and even northern Michigan. 

 WEDNESDAY

A large ice jam was still holding firm along the Missisquoi
River in Enosburg as of late this morning. 
Ice jams and regular flooding are a threat through
Thursday with more snow melt and expected rain. 

It does look like our storm will go by to our northwest, which means winds should shift to southerly during the day tomorrow. 

Highs should get into the 50s in western Vermont, maybe even low 60s southwest. The warmer air will have a bit of a harder time getting into eastern Vermont, but it will be above freezing. 

It probably won't rain much during the day except in the northwest. But today's warmth, lingering ice jams, snow melt and that rain will keep the risk of flooding going into Thursday. 

I noticed late this morning a large ice jam was holding pretty firm on the Missisquoi River in Enosburg , and it was causing minor flooding. 

Thursday will turn sharply colder and windy. And an active weather pattern will continue afterward. I'll have much more on that in tomorrow morning's post.