United States MAGA Meltdown Over Canadian Wildfire Smoke Is A National Embarrassment

Thick smoke in Chicago last week.
MAGA has been embarrassingly 
whining about the smoke without
offering any real help or 
solutions to the problem. 

Just stop already. 

MAGA is going nuts over the wildfire smoke billowing into theUnited States from Canada, and it has long since become embarrassing. 

Somehow, MAGA thinks Canada can wave a magic wand to stop the fires, or, they're sending the smoke over the border as some sort of deliberate provocation. 

Sigh.

MAGA has spent the past week falling over each attacking Canada for the fires, as if they aren't battling the blazes with everything they have and praying for soaking, widespread rains. 

We have so many, sad disgusting examples. Let's go through a bunch of them, just to wallow in the stupidity. : 

Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio said he is introducing legislation that would require an investigation as to whether the Canadian smoke had harmed U.S. air quality and to sanctions those responsible. Moreno ought to be careful, given the harm the United States has caused Canada.

Moreno's legislation gets worse.

As Daily Beast reports, "The bill reportedly goes so far as to threaten to revoke the visas of those deemed responsible fort the 'atrocity.' The legislation also 'expresses a sense' that the Canadian ambassador should be declared persona non grata until the smoke no longer affects the U.S." 

Moreno's legislation would ban U.S. government contracts with Canada and Export-Import Bank assistance and authorize the president to most import restrictions.  

Katie Miller, the wife of the odious White House aide Stephen Miller, posted the wild idea that annexing Canada would have spared the U.S. of the wildfire smoke. "This is why Canada should be the 51st state," she wrote. 

Rep. Lisa McClain, Michigan, had this temper tantrum on the social media platform X, formerly Twitter: "Michiganders shouldn't have to breathe negligence....."YEAR AFTER YEAR the smoke crossed the border while Canada does nothing. Stop exporting your smoke into our skies. Enough is enough!"

Does she expect Canada to erect a wall to block the smoke?

Also on X, Rep. Nick Langworthy, R-NY, whined, "This is no longer a one-time emergency - it's becoming an annual public health crisis. This is unacceptable."

It's not just MAGA Republicans. I found a Democrat who entered the fray. Michigan State Rep. Alabas Farhat  posted on Threads:

"For four straight years, Canada has failed to get these fires under control, and Michigan continues to pay the price." 

He referred the fires as "Canada forest management failures." He also said if Canada "refuses" to stop the fires (as if!) he said "There should be consequences."

This motive for all this whining? Almost all of it is in service to the Orange Lump of a president. We remember all the anti-Canada blather Trump has belched, the demands to make Canada the 51st state. And, after a couple days of all this, on Friday, all this stupidly and predictable whining culminated with Donald Trump saying he would add to the tariffs he's already imposed.

The Orange Lump said Canada "has refused to engage in basic Forest Management and Debris Removal."  I guess Canada was supposed to rake its forests, just as he insisted California should have done. 

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had a devastatingly low key reaction to the MAGA tantrums: "Climate change is everyone's responsibility, truly everyone's including the United States."

ABOUT THAT CLIMATE CHANGE

There have always been occasional years with Canadian or western United States fires that belch smoke into the United States. It used to be infrequent. 

On May 19, 1790 - way back when - was labeled the "Famous Dark Day" in New England, according to the Vermont Weather Book.  Candles were needed to read, and the air had an eerie, brassy hue. That was probably smoke from the western United States or maybe the northern Great Lakes region.

On September 6, 1881, it was the legendary, "Yellow Day,"  Everything took on a yellow hue, and artificial light was needed to read documents and books during the day. Basically the same thing happened in September, 1908, and September 1950.

So we used to have smoky days, but since those days were a rarity, they became legend. 

Now however, smoke attacks are no longer a rarity, but a regular occurrence. So what changed?

Canada has roughly 1.4 million square miles of forest. Most of it is boreal forest, a broad area representing 30 percent of the global forest area in northern areas of Canada, Russia and Alaska. 

Most of the forests are remote, and impossible to manage like forests in more populated areas in the continental United States.

Fires have gotten worse and widespread in recent years for reasons that mostly have to do with climate change. The snow in the spring melts sooner than it once did, leaving more time for the landscape than it used to. Parts of Canada are warming at twice the rate of the global average, creating heat waves that further dry things out. 

The summer heat also destabilizes the air, creating thunderstorms with relatively little rain but plenty of lightning strikes that set off fires.  Invasive bark beetles kills swaths of foresters, leaving behind tinder dry dead trees. 

So, contrary to MAGA, Canada isn't trying to torture Americans by sending choking wildfire smoke into the United States. They are in large part a victim of climate change. And historically, the United States has always been the #1 or #2 greenhouse gas emitters in the world. 

In the end, climate change has us breathing smoke that makes us sick, and will end up killing some of us. 

MAGA has been yelling outrageous things about the wildfire smoke. But just hint to them climate change might have had something to do with it, the screaming just becomes that much louder. 

THE FIRES

On Saturday, 949 fires were burning across Canada, according to the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System.  The intense fires in Ontario were quieter, thanks to some rain.

But those weren't the only fires burning in North America.  As of Saturday, there were 73 large fires burning across the United States, including 17 new large incidents, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. Most of these were in the West and in northern Minnesota. There were also a multitude of smaller fires burning around the nation. 

Fires are also burning in the boreal forests of Siberia. In recent days, a fire in Norway spread from a townhouse and into a forest, where it continued on to destroy about 100 homes. It was the largest such fire in Norway's history. 

TRAGEDY, HELP AND HONOR

It's not as if Canada is just gleefully sending smoke to the U.S.  Smoke has choked much of southern Canada, including large cities like Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal. 

The Canadian fires have especially hit the First Nations communities in Ontario. Thousands were evacuated. An unknown number of houses have burned, but the number of destroyed buildings is easily in the hundreds. 

Normally, and in the past, the United States and Canada would help each other with emergencies. Canada is still doing that. 

Sometimes, firefighters give their lives to the effort. About a week ago, Nicholas Dale, 56 of Sooke, British Columbia died in a helicopter crash while responding to a wildfire in not too far north of Telluride. 

Dale's death make the vitriol aimed at Canada over the smoky atmosphere especially galling. 

In a demonstration of how much more decent most Americans are, compared to the noxious MAGA crowd, Wyoming Public Radio described this scene as the sad process of returning Dale's body to Canada began. :

"On Monday morning, a line of firetrucks, ambulances and other emergency response vehicles flashing their lights stretched for nearly a mile as the convoy passed through the little towns and small cities between Gunnison and Grand Junction. 

In Montrose, hundreds somberly lined U.S. Highway 509 holding American flags to honor Dale."

STUPIDITY WORSENS

Meanwhile, he whining from MAGA kept getting louder and even more bizarre gets even worse in some circles  

Right Wing Watch posted on X (formerly Twitter) posted this gem of a clip from MAGA activist Eric Metaxas: 

"Who's telling me how to live my life?  I'm an adult man in a free country, and you're telling me, 'limit your outdoor activity.'' he said, "How dare they say that. Who has the right to tell me or you or anyone anything? It's a free country. I can do whatever I want."

Never mind this was just an advisory, kind of like telling people to drive carefully in a winter storm. But the guy isn't very bright. The comments section was glorious

"He should definitely go outside ad jog for HOURS!

"Fine, Eric. Please go outside and put your mouth over a diesel bus exhaust. It will benefit all of us."

"Eric doesn't understand the difference between a suggestion and an order Poor guy."

"Oh the humanity! This dude is the victim of receiving information! Will the abusive alerts never stop enslaving him?"

"Getting asthma to own the libs."

"Dear Eric - I forbid you from running out in front of traffic on the expressway."

Metaxas is a great example of the low, ignorant, tragicomic  MAGA mentality. They can do anything! They are all powerful!  While the rest of us roll our eyes and laugh at them. 

MAGA seems to think the abuse they've hurled at Canada is a flex, showing how powerful they are. Trump and his minions are actually demonstrating exactly how weak they are. Their pathetic insults and whining is a precise demonstration of how impotent MAGA really is. 

We should all remember that despite their bluster, the rest of us hold most of the power. We ought to use it. 

  

Vermont Cool Spell Ends Long 80 Degree Spell; No Real Heat For Awhile

Midsummer flowers in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
It's the peak of summer, but we're having an inverted
"January thaw."  That's a July cool spell that tells
us summer will eventually end. 

 We're in the midst of the summer version of the Vermont "January thaw."

Many years, often around the third week of January, we have a warm spell that tells us winter will eventually end. Not yet, it'll be awhile, but spring will come. 

Right now, we're in the July version of that  It happens during warmer summers, like this one has been so far. We get a cool spell in mid to late July.  It's an autumn-like sign that summer will eventually end. Not right away. There's plenty of summer left to go. But for now, there's hints of September. 

Saturday, the high temperature in Burlington reached only 72 degrees. That ended a streak of 21 consecutive days in which the temperature reached at least 80 degrees. The streak is the fourth longest 80 degree string on record in Burlington. 

We were supposed to get to 80 degrees or more yesterday, but a burst of warm, humid air had trouble making it as far as northern New England. That fact, and another burst of wildfire smoke, helped keep us cool.

The situation did rescue us from any severe weather. It all stayed well to our west and south. There's dozens of thunderstorm damage reports from western New York to North Carolina. 

Rainfall was mostly modest in Vermont, which is a bummer, since many of us could use the rain. 

REST OF TODAY

The cool weather continues today, though it is much nicer than it was Saturday.  The smoke is gone for now, and a pleasant northwest breeze is blowing. Today's the weekend day to enjoy. Our hints of autumn continuing. Highs will only top out in the 70s - gorgeous, but cool for the peak of summer. 

Tonight will probably be the coolest we've seen since the second week of June. That's not saying much. Most of us we'll get into the low and mid 50s, with some 40s in the colder hollows. Nothing unusual for July. 

THIS WEEK

Tomorrow will be another nice day, though some clouds will come in this afternoon. Highs will be seasonable, topping out within a few degrees either side of 80 degrees. 

The next storm system, coming through Tuesday through Wednesday, but it looks pretty tame. More tame that I thought a few days ago. Unless there's a major change in the outlook, it appears severe weather will stay well to Vermont's south and west.

Some earlier forecasts suggested the storm could slow down or stall near us, which would put us at risk for heavy rain or even flooding. Now, that idea looks highly doubtful. The warm fronts and cold fronts and troughs and lines of showers should wander through, not in a hurry, but not dawdling either. 

That means we might, if we're lucky, receive a decent amount of rain. 

It'll temporarily turn more humid during the rainy spell, but not wildly so. And it will turn drier again later in the week. Wildfire smoke is still lurking around central North America, but it's thinning somewhat. Rain has temporarily cooled the big Ontario wildfires a bit. Still, it might get a little smoky again midweek. 

After that, we don't see any signs of new heat waves for at least 10 days. It'll be warm enough, but not intensely so. Most of the heat will stay in the western and central United States.

But then there's August. Who knows whether we'll have more heat waves them. Stay tuned! 

Vermont Smoky, Windy, Stormy Saturday; Severe Storm Risk, Especially West. Will Sunday Rescue The Weekend?

A widespread severe weather outbreak is due in the
Northeast today. Vermont is on the edge of it. 
Clouds, wildfire smoke and the strength of the 
parent storm system is making today's 
storm forecast difficult and iffy. 

 We all know the humidity was low and gorgeous and pleasant around Vermont yesterday. If you stepped outside for even a second you might have even frizzed your hair a bit. 

It was the kind of summer day we all look forward to. And the tourists from the humid south get excited about. 

We actually tied a pretty substantial record Friday,  The relative humidity plunged to 20 percent in Burlington, tying the record for the lowest relative humidity in July. It's now a three-way tie with July 16, 2018 and July 1, 1975. 

Interestingly, July 1975 and 2018 were both among the top ten warmest on record. This month is running well above normal so far, but the second half looks like it could be in the cool side. 

Another way to look at how dry Friday was is the dew point.  That's the temperature that you would have had to reach to saturate the air. The dew point, as you keep seeing in this blog thingy, is a good measure of how comfortable it feels out there. 

If the dew point is in the 50s, it's nice and pleasant and not at all sweaty. The dew point got its the 30s in many areas Friday. We usually don't see something like that until we're into September.

SMOKY SATURDAY. STORMS, TOO?

The dry, clean air is in the past for now. This morning, the dew point is rising the smoke is back and getting thicker and the rest of the day isn't going to be so wonderful.

South winds are bringing back the smoke that had gotten flushed out of Vermont by Thursday's cold front. That has triggered a state wide air quality alert until 11 p.m. tonight. Especially for those who have lung problems, or are very young, or the elderly 

That's the part of the forecast that is easy, even if it is depressing. 

The next question is the risk of severe storms. Very much like on Tuesday night, the smoke is making the storm forecast challenging. That smoke could be one factor that could limit storms. Maybe.

his is a completely different weather set-up than we had on Tuesday night, so we can't use Tuesday night as an example. 

Fortunately, the core of today's rough weather will be slightly off to our west. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and western and central New York have a three out of five risk of severe storms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This is an unusually large area to be under this level of a storm alert. 

That area could have numerous strong to severe storms, and probably a few tornadoes. 

That leaves Vermont on the eastern edge of the the severe risk. Roughly south and west of Interstate 89, there's a slight risk of severe storm, a level two out of five risk of storms. That means at least scattered severe weather.  The rest of the state is under marginal risk, one out of five, which means mostly just isolated severe storms.

The parent storm system is unusually strong for July. That adds a lot of energy to the atmosphere, something that could trigger a lot of storms.

But Vermont is not fully getting into the super humid air that fuels storms. It'll turn humid for sure, but it won't get as humid as it possibly could be.  Also, it seems there will be a lot of clouds around today. And smoke. Don't forget that smoke!

The clouds and smoke could hold temperatures down further than they otherwise would be. Hotter air would help fuel storms. Cooler air would tame them down. 

So, we're left with a lot of questions. Will the clouds and smoke thin just in time to juice the atmosphere into severe storms?  Or will the clouds and smoke keep us cool, limiting the storm? 

As noted above, the parent storm is vigorous, so it should overcome the smoke and clouds and produce rounds of showers and storms. The wind is changing direction and strength with height. So, once again, there is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado. This will be south and west of Interstate 89, with the best chance down near Bennington. 

However, the biggest risk from today's storms is damaging straight line winds. 

After our two tornadoes, and a slew of destructive microburst this summer, this isn't exactly what we need. 

Whether or not we see severe thunderstorms, it's not going to be a nice day. 

It won't rain all the time, but a risk of showers and storms will always be there, through this evening. Between showers and storms winds will be fairly gusty, especially in the Champlain Valley. Boating on Lake Champlain will be tricky, even dangerous for small boats. Plus the smoke. And it will feel increasingly humid. 

Bottom line: Keep an eye on the sky, and - once again - have a way to receive warnings of severe weather warnings. 

So, can the weekend be saved?

SUNDAY

The above question gets a yes answer on Sunday. 

We'll have a day exactly the opposite of what today will bring. We could see some clouds early in the day, but it should turn mostly sunny. The storm's cold front will have flushed most if not all of  the wildfire smoke away.

It will be also be cool for the season. Our first subtle hint of autumn! (Don't worry, summer is far from over).  Highs should stay in the 70s, maybe upper 60s in the cooler hills in the north. The humidity will be at rock bottom, not much different than it was yesterday. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's an active weather pattern, so a new weather system is due Tuesday night and Wednesday. It's too soon to know the details of what will happen with that next storm, but severe storms and torrential rains are possible. 

After Yesterday's Weird Storm, A Brief Delightful Vermont Day Today. Smoke, Rain To Return

Yesterday's cold front packed some surprisingly 
strong winds. This tree in Georgia, Vermont
fell victims to those winds. Fallen trees and 
damaged power lines were reported across
much of the state. 

That was one weird storm in Vermont yesterday. 

On radar, it didn't look like much: Just a band of light to moderate showers. It was weird to see a severe thunderstorm warning ahead of what appeared to be a patch of light rain in the Champlain Valley. 

But the cold front had in incredible gust front.  Trees fell down in a wide area of northern and central Vermont. 

One tree blocked all lanes of Route 7 in Colchester near Poor Farm Road. Other trees fell in Georgia, Milton, Hyde Park and other towns. Winds gusted to 47 mph in Burlington. 

It was another surprisingly strong storm in a stormy summer. We might have more on the way Saturday. I'll get into that in a bit, but first, a calm interlude

TODAY

Today will be gorgeous. And placid.  The good new for us is that gusty cold front removed most of the smoke from Vermont. For now, anyway.   That left was a calm, comfortable sleeping night, and a pleasant, sunny day, with low humidity. 

It should get to 80 degrees in the warmer spots this afternoon.  That would make this the 21st day in a row in which it got to at least 80 degrees in Burlington. Today would make it the fourth longest stretch of consecutive 80 degree days on record,

The record for most consecutive 80 degree days is 29 days in 2018. I doubt we will break that record as we have some sub-80 degree days coming up. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

Meanwhile, the weather goes downhill from here.

TOMORROW

That smoke that got suppressed to our south by yesterday's cold front looks like it wants to come back   at us tomorrow as south winds take over. I'm not sure whether it will be enough to trigger new air quality alerts, but I imagine it will be at least noticeable. 

On top of that - here we go again - an unusually strong storm is going to go by to our north tomorrow and tomorrow night.  It'll be one of several oddly intense storms this summer. Not sure, but I think the onset of the strong El Nino now underway is helping to produce these vigorous systems. 

A strong storm like the one forecast for tomorrow might remind you of that day in June, when a similarly powerful storm helped set off two tornadoes in Vermont.

I wouldn't count on tornadoes this time, as if anybody wants something like that to happen again. 

There are some differences between the June storm and what we're going to see Saturday and Saturday night. The storm in June had a cold front with a sharp change in wind direction. It also had sharp changes in wind direction and wind speed  aloft. That's a recipe for tornadoes 

This storm doesn't look like it will  have such a big change in wind direction. Which reduces the chances of tornadoes. 

It also looks like we'll be dealing with wildfire smoke. As we saw earlier this week, smoke can reduce the intensity or number of thunderstorms. We think, anyway. 

That's not to say we won't have any strong storms. For now, anyway, most of Vermont is in a marginal risk (level one out of five alert) for severe thunderstorms. Southwest Vermont is at level two out of five.  Forecasting storminess like this even one day in advance can be tricky. The risk level for Vermont storms could rise or fall by the time we get tomorrow, so stay tuned.  

It does seen like there could be a relatively decent amount of rain with this. Current forecasts have us receiving a half to three quarters of an inch of rain, give or take. With thunderstorms around, actual amounts will be pretty variable. A couple places might get well over an inch of rain. A couple places might largely miss on the rain. 

Some parts of Vermont could use the rain. Here in St. Albans, those big thunderstorms this month have pretty much missed our area. We picked up a whopping 0.07 inches of rain yesterday, so that didn't really help. 

Overall, with the smoke, the showers, the risk of storms, the rising humidity and gusty non-thunderstorms winds, this won't be the glorious weather Saturday a lot of people would hope for.  On the bright side, it won't rain all day, and it feels like most of the rain will come later in the day.

SUNDAY

If you want a decent weather day this weekend, you'll want to wait until Sunday. That storm will blow by, sweep its cold front through, and leave us with dry, cool weather. Hopefully, it will also blow the smoke away. Temperatures will probably fall short of 80 degrees in Burlington, breaking the streak of 80 degree weather. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It looks like we have a fairly active weather pattern ahead. I don't see any signs of temperature extremes, neither too hot nor particularly chilly for this time of year.  Another fairly vigorous storm for this time of year looks like it might swing through Tuesday or Wednesday with the potential for locally heavy rain and thunderstorms, 

It's way too soon to get into specifics, so we'll put that on the back burner for now. 

 

Weather Evacuations: What Can Go Wrong (And Right) When Storms Disrupt Big Outdoor Shows

People being hastily moved from an outdoor venue
to an indoor venue during a high school graduation
ceremony in Orono, Minnesota in early June.
A strong thunderstorm prompted the hasty change in
plans. The move went smoothly, as the school had
 a plan in place for severe weather .

 I attended a high school graduation during early June   in Minnesota for our grandnephew Jonas, who is moving on to college in September.  

We were there for Jonas, of course, but I also got a weather moment, and a weather lesson. It involves evacuations of outdoor events when the conditions get, or threaten to become dangerous. 

The graduation was disrupted by an early summer storm. The school did almost everything right and kept everyone safe and orderly. More on that in a bit. 

Outdoor events are tricky when the weather goes bad.

Weather emergencies have always been a threat to outdoor concerts, festivals and ceremonies. 

Climate change is making this worse, like it's making so many other things worse.

As CBC reports: 

"More and more major cultural, social, business and arts events around the world are being disrupted or canceled by extreme weather events caused by climate change, according to a new study published in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. 

The study, Mapping the impact of extreme weather on global events and mass gatherings, trends and adaptive strategies details that from 2004 to 2024 more than 2,000 mass gatherings were reportedly disrupted around the world."   

Most of these events happen in the summer, when sudden, fast moving storms often require even faster evacuations. 

Lightning strikes, falling trees and branches, falling debris, collapsing stages and flash floods can happen in a blink of an eye. You need coordinated, well developed plans for this type of thing. 

It doesn't always work out that way. 

WASHINGTON FOURTH OF JULY

Severe thunderstorms forced the evacuation of the 
National Mall during the Fourth of July, creating
chaos as President Trump's team were 
incompetent planning for the event.

It's not always so safe and orderly, as we saw on the National Mall in Washington DC on July 4. 

After a day of dangerous, baking, record breaking heat, severe thunderstorms loomed over the Mall as evening settled in.  

The National Parks Service, fearing lightning strikes, high winds and flying debris, ordered a hasty evacuation of the National Mall. 

Some of the MAGA types in the crowd resisted, predictably arguing that the whole thing was woke liberals in the NPS trying to ruin Donald Trump's big night. 

It was a mess, to put it mildly 

Given the circumstances, NPS wanted everybody to call it a night and cancel Trump's speech and fireworks. 

Per the Washington Post: 

"A senior White House official said Sunday that 'all the entities involved' had recommend calling the festivities off altogether after storms forced the exodus from the Mall.

'When POTUS heard this, he told all involved to invite everyone back in and the speech would take place, even if it meant waiting until 2 a.m,' said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations." 

As WaPo notes, the National Weather Service had forecast the record heat days in advance. The severe storms were deemed likely by forecasters three days before the big day. So, the Trump people should have planned for the extreme weather. They did not.  

It appears the National Parks Service did have contingency plans, but moving 100,000 or more people as a storm bore down is not easy. Especially if some of them are unruly.  

However, the whole shebang was designated a National Special Security Event, because the president was making an appearance there.  The designation put the Secret Service in charge of security and emergencies. 

Since management of all federal agencies, including Secret Service, have been reduced to haphazard, incompetent groups because they're run by Trump lackeys and not professionals, things were bound to take a bad turn. 

Especially since the designation meant added layers of security screening for those entering and exiting the Mall.

National Parks Officers were left to deal with the disaster. 

WaPo paints a picture of how it all went: 

"....as skies darkened, lightning flashed and gusting winds swept through the Mall just after 7 p.m., crows of people refused to heed the calls to evacuate. Many had already waited for house in security lines in the heat. 

'Show is over. Pleas keep moving,' one officer shouted to stragglers. 'Rally canceled.' shouted another. Exits back up. Some people complained that it was unclear where they should head, and the scene grew increasingly tense. Social media showed people yelling back at security personnel and National Guard troops flipping over a table to persuade people to flee."

As noted, it would have been better to call it a night. But due to Trump's directive, people had to go through security again. Many people didn't bother.   The whole event was a disappointment, and several people were taken to the hospital, mostly for heat-related illnesses. 

GRADUATION

The Minnesota graduation I attended about a month ago was a completely different world. The crowd was much smaller than at the Mall on the Fourth of July. The weather wasn't broiling hot as it was on July 4 in Washington. 

And the people making decisions on what to do with the weather and the crowds knew what they were doing. 

The high school graduation was held in Orono, Minnesota, an outer suburb about 17 miles west of downtown Minneapolis. 

Before the graduation even got underway,  I checked the radar and found a band of thunderstorms west of Orono, Minnesota. I questioned the decision to go ahead with the outdoor ceremony.

The school decided to go ahead with the outdoor ceremony.  

It was a no-win decision, really. The storms could have dissipated or veered off to the north or south leaving Orono in the clear. That  would have angered participates who preferred a much more accessible outdoor ceremony. 

Or, as how it turned out, the storms kept marching toward Orono strengthening as they did so. As we watched the graduation ceremony, we also saw a walk of dark clouds approaching steadily from the west.  Soon, we saw the storm's shelf cloud, with flashes of lightning flickering beneath it.

That's when the call came to stop the proceedings and move inside. That was about halfway through the ceremony.

This was a modest-sized event with maybe a couple thousand people in a pleasant Minneapolis suburb with sturdy buildings nearby. 

 Pretty much everybody got inside, to the gym, and the graduation continued, almost seamlessly picking up where it left off.

But it did remind me of other outdoor events with larger crowds, bigger storms and poorer planning. Any outdoor event, no matter how mellow, can turn into a deadly fiasco. Even worse than the National Mall Fourth of July mess. 

Some examples:

SUGARLAND

On August 13, 2011,  the popular country band Sugarland was set to play at the Indiana State Fair. As a severe thunderstorm arrived, wind brought down a large portion of the 62-foot tall, 32-ton stage structure. Steel beams and rigging crashed on the crowd, killing 7 and injuring more than 100. 

Forecasters had said severe thunderstorms were expected. However, fair and entertainment officials ahead of the Sugarland did not discuss public safety, just the timing of the show and the fact it was going to rain. 

Sugarland band members were told about the impending rain, and Sugarland said they would go ahead and play, since they often performed concerts in the rain. However, they were not told of the risk of strong winds.

By the time it came apparent a severe thunderstorm with powerful winds was about to hit, it was too late to evacuate Sugarland fans in time before disaster struck.

GLASTONBURY

In other instances, there is not much you can do, The roughly 170,000 people at the 2005 Glastonbury Festival endured an intense heat wave, followed by the most intense storm locals had seen. in 15 years. Lightning cut power, and torrential rains flooded much of the site. In fact, a river burst its banks and sent a torrent of water across a field full of tents.

Somehow, there were few casualties back at that festival, but it really could have been a fatal day.  

Unfortunately, as the Fourth of July National Mall fiasco indicates, some event organizers will not always plan for extreme weather. Or, the allure of revenue might make them make some poor choices.

Next time you go to an outdoor concert, or fair, or festival, check the weather forecast yourself. If it looks really, really iffy, you might want to cancel your plans to be on the safe side. 

 

Smoke Annoying Vermont, And Much Of Northern U.S. Storms/Rain Lurk In New England Too

A bit of another severe risk. Level 2 out of 5 risk of
damaging winds in the Northeast Kingdom and in
northern New Hampshire and half of Maine.
Northwest and central Vermont are at a level 1
out of  5 risk. This won't be as serious as the
destructive microbursts in south central
Vermont early yesterday morning. 

The smoke is back, especially in southern Vermont. Big wildfires in Ontario and northern Minnesota is causing most of the trouble. 

Smoke will be a problem for the rest of the summer, probably. Rain might tamp down the Ontario fires Friday and Friday night, and that might temporarily help. 

All this pollution makes the overall weather forecast a little harder, both for understanding when the smoke will be thickest and how that will affect overall weather. 

Later yesterday, the thick smoke got suppressed south to near the Massachusetts border and points south and west. Northern Vermont got a temporary break. 

TODAY

Unfortunately, satellite imagery was down this morning so I don't have a full picture of what's going on with the smoke. Just a general idea.

However, we know the smoke moved back north overnight, but it's still thickest in southern Vermont. An air quality alert is in effect until 11 p.m. tonight for all of Vermont except the far north. It's part of a broad air quality alert zone extending from Minnesota to Massachusetts. 

Another cold front is going to temporarily squash the smoke southward this afternoon. The cold front has already set off some needed showers in northwest Vermont, an area that could use some rain  Unfortunately, there is a risk of a few strong or even severe storms today. 

It's been a stormy summer. 

The weather set up is similar to Tuesday, when we were expecting a big outbreak of severe storms. The main difference is that it's much less humid than it was on Tuesday. So there's less potential fuel for storms

This time, the smoke is somewhat lighter in northern Vermont. Despite the lower humidity, the lack of smoke means there could be a few strong or borderline severe storms. Especially as a new cold front accompanied by a weather disturbance approaches us from Quebec.

This will not be a big storm outbreak.  Some of us won't see any showers or storms at all. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has much of Vermont under a marginal risk of severe storms, a level one out of five risk. 

The Northeast Kingdom, northern New Hampshire and southern Maine have a higher risk, a level two out of five alert level for severe storms. Far southern Vermont is outside the risk zone. 

Again, this won't be anything as serious as those destructive microbursts that hit towns like Shoreham, Whiting, the north end of Lake Bomoseen, Shrewsbury, Windsor and other spots late Tuesday and early Wednesday.  

Just keep an eye to the sky and get into a building if a storm is approaching. A couple spots could have some damaging wind gusts. The storms should be around early to mid afternoon north, and mid to late afternoon south. Though southern Vermont should see few if any showers and storms 

The good news is the cold front will temporarily disperse the smoke later today, especially north. 

FRIDAY

Should be a nice day. After a comfortable night tonight, we should have a sunshine, low humidity with highs in the70s to low 80s. It looks like we should still have some wildfire smoke hanging around. It's hard to say for sure, but current forecasts suggest the smoke might be worse south and west of Interstate 89.

WEEKEND

Saturday looks rather rainy. Which is good, as several places in Vermont have been cheated as thunderstorms have missed them this month. Northwest Vermont seems particularly dry. The first half of July in Burlington had 1.37 inches less rain than normal.  

You might be able to squeeze in some outdoor activity during the first half of Saturday, since the bulk of the rain should come through later in the afternoon and evening. Early forecasts call for an inch of rain in northern Vermont, with a little less than that across the south.  

It looks like Sunday will clear up in the afternoon. It also looks like it might be the coolest day we've had since maybe the third week in June. Highs should stay mainly in the 70s.

The weather pattern has changed. No promises, but it appears the second half of July might be cooler than the first half of the month. 

"Smoke Bomb" Might Have Saved Vermont/Northern New England From Widespread Severe Weather

My sister in Shrewsbury, Vermont sent
me several photos of storm damage
in that town. Here's one showing a 
large uprooted tree. However, the
storms weren't as widespread as 
forecasted, likely due to the 
thick wildfire smoke in the air

 We wake up this morning to find our big storms we were supposed to get last night didn't happen to the extent everyone was worried about. 

There were some strong storms in the Northeast Kingdom during the evening. And a collection of supercell thunderstorms  swept from northwest New York through south central Vermont early this morning.  Hail up to the size of baseballs hit St. Lawrence County, New York, and a roof was blown off a house there. 

In Vermont early this morning, tree damage was reported in place like Brandon, Pittsford, Orwell and Shoreham. where several large trees were snapped off. In Shrewsbury, numerous fallen trees blocked town roads and the power was out

 Trees blew down between Springfield and Weathersfield, blocking both northbound lanes of Interstate 91.  One southbound lane was also closed. Southern New Hampshire also had some storm damage. Parts of the region had a big lightning show. 

This wasn't the big scary storm outbreak we were expecting.  That's a good thing, Far fewer of us are picking up the pieces than we feared. 

However, that things didn't get as wild as forecast is frustrating for the public.  Judging from social media, people were genuinely scared at yesterday's forecast.  A small hint of fear is good. It gets people to take precautions. But people were worked up. Then, in many cases, nothing happened, which leaves people saying, "What the hell?"

 Of course, people were told that not everyone would be hit by severe storms, it would just be a minority of us. But that gets lost in the hype. 

But still, as noted, this outbreak of severe weather fell well short of forecasts. I'm not blame the meteorologists. This was about as tough of a weather scenario to forecast as you can get.  And I'd suggest the wildfire smoke really threw a wrench into the severe weather forecasting. 

SMOKE

The science of factoring smoke and climate change into day to day forecasts needs work.

The sky was a sick yellow over St. Albans, Vermont
yesterday morning because of wildfire smoke.
The smoke made severe weather forecasting even
more challenging, and probably reduced the
number of severe storms in the region. 

As soon as we got up yesterday, we knew something was awry. There was a lot of smoke out there.  Fires burning in northern Minnesota and Ontario really smogged us in. 

We're now having another smoky summer. Climate change has encouraged more fires due to hotter weather and in many places, drier conditions. 

Since the problem is newish, I don't think the computer models handle smoke forecasts well. Especially since the amounts of smoke the fires belch out changes often and unpredictably. So sometimes we're surprised by the haze and pollution. 

It gets worse. Meteorologists and other scientists don't have a great handle on how wildfire smoke affects thunderstorm development, especially when wildfire behavior changes abruptly.  We saw that yesterday as meteorologists struggled with whether the smoke would squelch storms or not. 

During a live Facebook event last evening, National Weather Service meteorologists in South Burlington said they doubted the smoke would interfere much with storm development. Meanwhile, at NOAA's Storm Prediction Center,  NWS meteorologists issued a statement saying that while there was a very good chance of severe storm development in northern New England, widespread wildfire smoke and clouds were teaming up to inhibit storms from firing up.

This morning, responding to a question from a person on Facebook, the National Weather Service in South Burlington had a great explanation:

"The thick smoke layer was a big wildcard yesterday. Turns out, the smoke reduced instability just enough that the severe storms weren't as widespread as anticipated. Given the recency of the wildfires in southwestern Ontario  - which was the primary source of the smoke - it wasn't incorporated into the model solution very well."

In the words, the fires blew up so quickly that the computer models couldn't easily feed that information into the forecast they were spitting out. So the forecast was off.

Wildfire smoke is bad, as Captain Obvious would tell us, but it might have helped us last night by limiting storms. 

More research is needed to help us understand how wildfire smoke and thunderstorms interact. Also, we need science on how smoke affects temperature forecasts. The thickness of the smoke yesterday was unexpected, and made us cooler that we thought it would be.  The forecast high in Burlington yesterday was 97 degrees. It only made it to 88.

Smoke wasn't the only thing that created fewer storms than feared. The cold front descending from Quebec was a bit of a slowpoke, coming at us later than forecast

LOOKING AHEAD

You can tell by looking out your window that smoke is still a problem here in Vermont and a lot of other places today. An air quality alert is in effect for New York State. I imagine Vermont officials are considering it. But the bulk of the smoke is aloft.   

Some of it is down here where we breathe, so the air isn't great. It's just not as awful as it can get. Air quality was moderate across Vermont this morning, though it was flirting with "unhealthy for sensitive groups."

Northern Vermont will tend to clear out later today, but southern areas are forecast to stay socked in. Smoke will make another run at us tomorrow. 

There is a low chance of showers and weak thunderstorms today, though the Storm Prediction Center has the Northeast Kingdom in a marginal risk for severe storms. This isn't a huge threat at all, but there could be an isolated strong storm today up there. Don't hold your breath on that, though. 

Today will be warm and breezy with highs up in the 80s. 

Tomorrow

A reinforcing cold front should come through tomorrow, with a new batch of scattered showers and thunderstorms. They will be hit and miss, and the thunderstorms should be pretty much garden variety. Rainfall will be generally light, which is too bad as many of us could use a nice soaking

Wildfire smoke should make another run at us. It'll reduce air quality again. It will also make it more difficult to forecast how widespread the expected showers and storms will be. 

Friday

A nice one, as it looks now. Sunny, dry, with highs in the 70s to around 80. That will make it our coldest day since late June. I don't exactly think we'll be shivering in those temperatures, though. We still have to keep an eye on wildfire smoke. It's a little too early to figure out if that will be a factor on Friday. 

Weekend.

Looking unsettles with rain chances both days. This could change, but Sunday looks like the better of the two days. Fingers crossed, the showers might move out of Vermont early in the day Sunday to reveal increasing sunshine. The storm causing the showers will have to move just a bit faster than forecast to accomplish this, however.