Hurricanes Harassing Hawaii, California, East Coast Remarkably Storm-Free

Hurricane Lowell in the Pacific Ocean on Monday. Hawaii
is hidden beneath the clouds. 

For the second time within a month, a hurricane is threatening Hawaii. 

Hurricane Lowell has taken its northward turn, but it has been heading a little east of north. That means the Hawaiian Island will have more trouble than originally thought.  

The hurricanes expected path has shifted about 75 miles east since Sunday morning. Hurricane Lowell is expected to pass within 75 miles of Kauai as a category 2 storm tonight and tomorrow. 

It still looks like most of the Hawaiian Islands will be spared hurricane force winds, though a hurricane warning is in effect for the islands of Kauai and Nihau. Winds could gust to 85 mph later today and tonight, and 10 to 15 inches should drown the western islands. 

But torrential rains and tropical storm force winds could hit the entire island chain while the storm passes by. 

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Oahu, which includes the city of Honolulu. Kauai and Niihau could receive six to 10 inches of rain with local amounts of 14 inches. Normal September precipitation the islands is between two to four inches. So flooding is inevitable.   

The rest of the island chain can expect four to eight inches of rain. Which is more than enough to cause flooding and landslides. Especially after other recent storms on the island. 

The islands are also going to be battered by huge waves and storm surges.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green declared a state of emergency for the entire state. The Hawaii National Guard  has been activated. 

All this comes less than a month after Hurricane Lala sideswept Hawaii, causing enormous flood and mudslides especially on the Big Island. One spot on the Big Island had 43.54 inches of rain as the hurricane passed by just to south of Hawaii.

HURRICANE MARIE

Meanwhile, Hurricane Marie moved north to northwest out in the Pacific Ocean, far to the southwest of California. By today, it was over cooler water, and it had weakened to a tropical storm. 

Still, it was able to last longer than most hurricanes that get that far north, due to oddly warm water. The storm is throwing immense waves at southern California, 

Some waves on south facing California beaches reached ten feet high. Video showed waves smashing into seaside homes and condos, flooding garages and some lower floors. Parking lots were inundated. 

The National Hurricane Center said that dangerous surf conditions would continue today and tomorrow..

Moisture streaming off of Marie caused some unseasonable showers in southern California. It's also unusually humid in southern California because of the moisture from Marie, and because offshore waters are unusually warm. Heat advisories are in effect through Thursday as a result.

The humid air might also prompt tropical-like thunderstorms, which are exceptionally rare for southern California. 

 Meanwhile, in the Atlantic Ocean, which should be busy with tropical storms and/or hurricanes now, is still strangely quiet at the peak of the normal season. The National Hurricane Center says no tropical storms are expected over the next seven days.  

Another Sign Of Autumn This Morning, Then Quick Blip Of Humidity, Rain

Henry the Weather Dog at the dog park in
St. Albans, Yesterday. The sun was out at
the moment this photo was taken, but
under clouds and with gusty north winds
it actually felt chilly at times. Autumn
is definitely showing itself. 

For the first time since maybe early June, I felt chilly for awhile Sunday afternoon.   

The highlight of the day for Henry the Weather Dog is a trip to the dog park here in St. Albans. I brought him there in my usual summer uniform: Shorts, a t-shirt, sneakers. 

It was 70 degrees out at best. Warm enough for that outfit. But the sun occasionally disappeared behind large, poofy clouds, so that cooled the air occasionally.  The wind also blows hard at the dog park, as it's funneled between Hard'ack Hill to the west and French Hill to the east. 

The result: I felt chilly. 

I'm not whining. It's not as if I was dying of hypothermia. Still, I took my goosebumps as a sign we are sinking deeper into autumn. 

And it was cool this morning too. It was 50 degrees in Banana-Belt Burlington this morning. It got down to 41 in Bennington and 42 in Morrisville and Lyndonville. 

The arrival of autumn comes in waves, the cool air interspersed with periods of warmer, even summery weather. So the vaguely nippy air we just had will relax into warmth. Let's get into the details.

TODAY

Temperatures have started rocketing upward and will peak well into the 70s this afternoon.  Maybe close to 80 in the warmest valleys. Henry's trip to the dog park today will not result in any shivers today. Sunshine will reign supreme. Get outside and enjoy!

TUESDAY

An extremely weak cold front should drift down from Quebec early in the morning. It'll probably bring a band of clouds. Maybe even a widely scattered light shower or sprinkle in the north. But the sun should partially make an appearance in the afternoon. It'll be a couple degrees cooler than today, but still in the 70s

WEDNESDAY

The next weather system will start to come at us from the west. South winds will pick up, and those south winds will pick up some humidity from the Gulf of Mexico and throw it at us. It'll start to feel sticky, and we'll have a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. 

A brief spell of very humid air will help blossom a period of rain, maybe briefly heavy overnight Wednesday/Thursday. There could even be a downpour or two. But the rain will rocket through here so fast Wednesday night it won't have a chance to give us all that much. 

We might see over a half inch of rain in northern Vermont, maybe a quarter to a half in central Vermont and the Champlain Valley, and less than a quarter inch far southeast. Of course, there might be adjustments to the forecast.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY

September in Vermont is famous for its spells of delightful weather. Sunshine, low humidity. With few springtime gnats or mosquitoes buzzing around and no mud underfoot. 

We might have a couple lingering showers Thursday, especially in the morning. Humidity will probably linger in the morning, too, but the air should start to feel more fresh in the afternoon. It'll be warm, as it could get up to 80 degrees or so. Not near any records by any stretch of the imagination, but a little warm for September. 

As it looks now, Friday and Saturday look delightful. Sunshine, maybe a few puffy afternoon clouds, with afternoon highs in the 70s. Both mornings will feature dense fog in the river valleys. That's also classic September weather. 

It's possible some light showers come back into the picture later on Sunday, but we might well squeak out another nice day.  

The United Nations Has Finally Given Up On Its Tenuous Hold On Climate Optimism

The United Nations has finally admitted that the goal of
keeping the world from becoming 1.5 degrees warmer
than the 18 century average. 

The famous 1.5 degree Celsius climate change goal is officially kaput. 

That figure was the goal set during the international 2015 Paris climate accord. 

According to that decade old plan, the world wasn't supposed to get more than 1.5 degree Celsius or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above the mid 19th century average.   

The UN is throwing in the towel with that one. Many other climate experts have been saying for months or even years that the world would not achieve the goal.  

The 1.5 degree target is still nominally the UN's goal, but they've finally admitted it's completely unrealistic. So, it's now all about trying to deal with the hotter world. 

As CBC reported:

"In a strategic retreat in the fight against climate change, the United Nations has acknowledged that Earth has lost its chance to prevent some of the worst of global warming's harms. Officials say the world must now figure out how to get temperatures below the danger zone and back to safety."

The trick now is to figure out over the next several decades how to get the world's temperature back under 1.5 degree C above the 19th centurial average. 

As the Associated Press reports: 

"Instead of giving up, scientists and the U.N. officials recommend trying to limit excessive warming and then bring the temperature back down to the agreed-upon threshold. But it will still mean decades of increased weather-related disasters rising seas, extinctions and melting ice and glaciers."

The 1.5 degree Celsius threshold is rather arbitrary. It's not like things will be OK until we reach 1.5 degrees, then all hell breaks loose. 

As the world has warmed, we've seen a gradual increase in record heat waves, destructive, wild storms and deepening droughts. 

Things will  just get worse and worse the higher the temperatures get. But you need to have goals, and that 1.5 degrees was the global goal, set by the U.N. 

The time for that goal has passed. The world is now 1.4 degrees hotter than it was in the 19th century. This is based on a 20 year average. The next couple of years will boost the average further, considering a strong El Nino will warm the world further. 

The U.N's latest most optimistic scenario now has the world's warming peaking at 1.8 degrees Celsius, or 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit about levels that we saw nearly two centuries.  Then, the hope is, the world would eventually start to cool back down a little. 

This is if countries around the world pursue ambitious climate goals starting now. Good luck with that. I'm looking at you, United States. 

To do this, the world would have to cut planet warming pollution 55 percent by 2035, then getting rid of virtually all fossil fuel emissions by 2050 or so. I do not see the political will do this. Correct me if I'm wrong. 

Washington Post explains the consequences: 

"The dangers at the scale of warming will still be significant. Rising sea levels will engulf small island nations and submerge many coastal communities. Heat waves, hurricanes, wildfires and floods, which already cause hundreds of thousands of deaths each year, will come many times more extreme. Without aggressive adaption measures, global food production could decline by 14 percent."

Also, even if we get above that 1.5 degree threshold for several decades, then manage to go below it again, it won't solve all the problems the world's warming has caused. Perhaps a quarter of the world's glaciers will have permanently melted away. Species will go extinct. Some ecosystems will never recover. 

If nothing changes in terms of policies, global temperatures will rise to 2.6 Celsius (4.7 degrees F)  over mid-19th century levels.  Per the AP:

"The UN's report says every five years of delay in reducing emissions adds at least a tenth of a degree to peak warming, said report co-author Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London." 

This is among the bleakest U.N. climate reports I have read. It carries the unmistakable tone of desperation, frustration and urgency - but not resignation," said Andrew Weaver, a climate scientist at the University of Victoria."

Making the temperature of the world go down is a lot harder than making it go up.  

Wapo again:

"That's because it is far more difficult to take carbon out of the atmosphere that it is to release it, said Joeri Rogelj, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and another lead author of the report."

We could plant million, or billions of trees to absorb carbon from the air. But those trees have to be planted somewhere.  Probably partly on agricultural land that should be used for food.  Then, if there's a forest fire, a big chunk of carbon absorption would be wiped out in a day.

We could build machines to suck carbon out of the air and store it underground. But we do not yet have the technology, or the money to do this on a large enough scale.  

For now, the world will keep warming. Maybe we'll get a temporary, semi-break around 2028 when El Nino ends and the Earth's temperature might go down marginally. But that will only be a blip, and the world will keep warming until humanity can get its act together. 

Since humanity has never truly gotten its act together, I'm not terribly optimist

More Quiet Vermont Weather, "Popcorn" Showers Are Over, Sunshine To Win

Changeable skies over St. Albans, Vermont on Saturday. 
It rained a little five minutes before and 10 minutes 
after this photo was taken. It was about as
changeable a day as you can get. It should
turn much sunnier by this afternoon. 

 We got through a very changeable Saturday, didn't we?  

Sun, light rain, sun, clouds, wind, light rain, every minute was different. Life in Vermont, I guess. The rain didn't amount to anything. If you got the showers, you received a trace to a few hundredths of an inch of rain. So the light showers didn't exactly wet things down. 

All that Saturday keep-on-your-toes weather came from an old storm in the Maritime Provinces of Canada is departing. Good for them, as the system caused severe flooding around Cape Breton, Nova Scotia.

TODAY

It was still cloudy, with areas of fog early this morning, a typical state of affairs for an early morning in September. The fog should lift by mid-morning, as usual. The clouds might take a little longer, especially in southern Vermont.

One last disturbance spawned by that Maritime Provinces moving south through New England produced a few early showers, especially in southern Vermont. That's heading south. Clouds and perhaps a very light showers might linger for a time south. 

But eventually, the sun will come out, and forecasters are insisting it will be a sunny, pleasant afternoon. Still a little on the cool side, with highs within a few degrees either side of 70 degrees.

Tonight will be among the coolest nights of the season so far, as we continue to sink into the autumn. Lows will be in the 40s in most places, with low 50s again in the Champlain Valley. 

LABOR DAY

A very nice day to unofficially end summer. After that cool start we should get well  into the 70s under sunny skies. Enjoy the outside

TUESDAY

Back to school, back to work. Under generally sunny skies once again, we should get right back in the 70s for highs. An incredibly lame weather disturbance from Quebec could spread a few clouds in during the day. but that won't disturb our stretch of good weather. 

WEDNESDAY

Our best shot at some needed rain. Yet another cold front will come at us. It will be able to grab just a bit of moisture from that horrible hot, humid air far to our south and bring it our way. As south winds pick up, you'll feel the day starting to turn a little more sticky. Showers should arrive  in the afternoon and last through the night, as it looks now. 

It's a little early to know how much rain we'll get, but early guesses are we could get a half inch or so, Maybe. We'll take anything we can get. It's still dry out there

It's also still early enough to expect some changes in the forecast for the timing and the amount of rain. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

It'll cool down again, as it almost always does after a cold front goes by. Originally, it looked like this next shot would have been our first chance of frost of the season. Even then that frost would have been only in the very coldest hollows.

Lately, computer models have been backing off on the how cool the air might get.  So, our early guesses will be highs back down near 70 and lows in the 40s. Typical September weather. 

Quiet Vermont Weather Week During What Is Usually Quietest Weather Month Of Year. On Bright Side, No Hurricanes, As In Past Septembers

Damage in Brattleboro, Vermont after the Great 
New England Hurricane of 1938. This year is an
incredibly quiet Atlantic hurricane season, thanks to
El Nino. However, in the past, Septembers have
brought destructive tropical storms to Vermont.

The weather in and around Vermont is quiet, and will mostly remain on the quiet side for the next week. It's a nice contrast to the record heat and destructive storms elsewhere in United States lately.  

This is the time of year when large high pressure systems drift into New England from southern Canada. It's true this year, even with a stuck weather pattern that has kept the south central U.S. broiling since July, and has kept the severe weather in the Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic states for the past several weeks.

It seems like the almost the only extreme weather Vermont sees in September is dying hurricanes, which can cause severe flooding and a lot of wind damage.

Not this year, of course. Incredibly, the National Hurricane Center sees no signs of tropical storms forming in the Atlantic Ocean for the next seven days. That's an absolutely wild thing to say at the peak of hurricane season.  El Nino is really doing its job at suppressing Atlantic hurricanes. 

In the past, of course, hurricanes and tropical storms have really tormented Vermont in past Septembers.

Great New England Hurricane

The biggest one, of course, was the Great New England Hurricane in 1938, killing nearly 700 people After coming ashore on Long Island and Connecticut, the 1938 hurricane quickly reached Brattleboro then curved northwestward toward Burlington. 

Especially along and east of that track, winds leveled forest across Vermont. Here's one example from the Vermont Weather Book: The hurricane destroyed 2,400 of 3,500 trees in a sugarbush in Cabot. And as we all know, it takes a long time to grow new trees, so this storm was incredibly devastating. 

The western side of a hurricane is especially rainy. We had a lot of rain in the days leading up to the hurricane, so the torrential rains  from the storm caused extensive flooding, some of the worst on record in Vermont. 

It was a rough stretch for floods in Vermont. Our worst flood on record hit in 1927, as most Vermonters know. A terrible destructive flood hit in 1936, then we had the great hurricane of 1938. Three mega-floods within 11 years.

We've had more recent tropical storms, of course. I"m omitting storms like Tropical Storm Irene in 2011, because that one hit in August. I'm only discussing September storms here.

David/Frederick, 1979

In 1979, two ex-tropical storms pestered Vermont in September. Ex-Hurricane David, having killed 2,000 in the Caribbean, swept up the East Coast from Florida to New England. The center of the now-former hurricane crossed Vermont on roughly a Danby to Thetford path. 

The storm brought heavy rain, damaging winds and a possible tornado that took part of the roof off a new supermarket in West Rutland 

A week later, ex-hurricane Frederick, which had devastated parts of the Gulf Coast, crossed northwest Vermont with more wind and rain statewide. A possible a collapsed a covered bridge between South Newbury, Vermont and Haverhill, New Hampshire. 

Floyd, 1999

We were damn lucky Vermont was having a serious drought in the weeks leading up to ex-hurricane Floyd in 1999. It slammed into North Carolina and at the time became the most expensive hurricane in that state's history. 

The weakening hurricane continued on up the East Coast, coming across Vermont on September 16-17. Three to seven inches of rain fell, with locally higher amounts. This would have caused severe flooding, except that severe drought meant water levels were extremely low before the storm. .

Still, flooding hit. The Tunbridge World's Fair had to be canceled due to high water A section of Route 5 in Weathersfield was washed away, One person died when high winds blew a tree down on them 

Next Few Days

We're definitely not going to have a tropical storm in the next few days. All in all, it will be a nice Labor Day weekend 

Today: Partly cloudy, a chance of widely scattered light showers Highs in the 70s

Sunday/Monday: Sunshine, with daytime highs in the 70s. The only major clouds would be patchy dense fog in the river valleys both mornings. That'll burn off by mid-morning 

The next chance of rain will come along probably on Wednesday and Thursday. So far, rainfall amounts with this thing don't' look like they'll be that impressive.  

Incredibly Persistent Heat Dome Roasts Middle Of U.S; Ring Of Fire Storms In Northeast, We In Vermont Escapes

Schematic of a heat dome and ring of fire, similar to the
one we've been under since late July.  Hot sinking air
creates intense heat in the center of the nation. The 
edges of the heat dome has frequent bouts of 
severe thunderstorms. Graphic is from Iowa 
Storm Chasing Network

The weather pattern in the United States has been stuck since the end of July, which is an awfully long time for things to stay the same. It's been at least six weeks now with the same set up, with no sign of it ending soon. 

That's despite the fact that the season is changing, and weather patterns tend to get disrupted as we head into fall. This is an amazingly persistent stuck weather pattern, easily among the longest and most impressive I've seen. 

Here's how it's working:

A heat dome set up in the south-central part of the United States in late July and it's been there since. 

That has caused some horrible weather in much of the Lower 48. First, the heat: 

In Memphis, Tennessee every day since August 4 has been 90 degrees or more. It was 100 degrees on Wednesday and 101 on Thursday. Today through next Thursday will range from 98 to 101. 

In Oklahoma City, the final week of July featured daily high temperatures in the 100s. Then, 23 days in August reached 100 degrees, peaking at 109 degrees. It should be near 100 degrees there daily at least through Thursday.. 

Little Rock, Arkansas, all but one August day was 90 degrees or more. 13 days reached at least 100 degrees. 

The northern and often northeastern periphery of heat domes are known as the "ring of fire." the contrast between the deep heat and humidity to the south and cooler weather to the north creates intense batches of thunderstorms. 

That's why the Great Lakes and Northeast have been repeatedly raked by severe storms, flash floods and even tornadoes. Yesterday. a band extending from Michigan to Delaware endured severe weather. The day before, it the severe weather extended from Ontario to Virginia, with at least three tornadoes in western New York 

VERMONT CALMNESS

Here in Vermont, the weather pattern favored us. Sometimes, the "ring of fire" storms extended up here into northern New England, which helps explain why we had a few bouts with severe storms in late July and August.

But overall, this weather pattern makes Vermont a calm island in the wild conditions hitting much of the U.S.  Temperatures have been near normal, or just barely warmer than normal. The only drawback is that since we're north of the deep moisture associated with the ring of fire, rainfall has been lacking. 

It's not nearly as dry as it was at this time last year, when Vermont was in a deep drought. But, with the weather pattern stuck in place for now, we probably aren't going to see a super big rainstorm anytime soon. 

The specific forecast:

Today

Overall, a nice one. Partly cloudy, though mostly cloudy over the northern mountains. There could be a few light showers here and there, but most of us will stay dry. Highs should be comfortably in the 70s.

Saturday

It'll be a little cloudier than today, and a somewhat greater chance of showers. But the showers won't be light. If it rains where you are, it won't last all day. Not even close. Most of the day will be dry. Some places will see no rain. It'll be a little cooler. Highs will be in the upper 60s northern hilly areas and low to mid 70s in warmer valleys. 

Sunday

Another nice day. Cool-ish, low humidity, quite a bit of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys. Highs will be in the low 70s.

Next Week and Beyond

We'll continue to see occasional rather weak disturbance come through occasionally with likely light showers. One thing that is changing is that cool high pressure systems that come through once we hit September become larger and, of course, cooler than they were in August. I'm not ready to talk about frost yet, but sooner or later, that's going to be an issue. 

Also, the weather pattern will have to eventually break down. Larger autumn storms should eventually give us some more substantial rainstorms. And, eventually, snowstorms once we head toward winter. 

Tropical Storm Eduoard Drowns Part Of Texas; ; But Storms Lacking In Atlantic; Pacific Ocean Is Wild, Though

Although the Atlantic Ocean is quiet, hurricanes are
spinning up frequently in the very warm Pacific Ocean.
from left to right, Hurricane Lowell south of Hawaii,
Hurricane Karina in the middle and Hurricane Marie
off the west coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall as a 60 mph tropical storm just east of the mouth of the Sabine River in far southwestern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon.  

It might have not been the strongest tropical system ever, but it showed remarkable staying power as it moved inland. Tropical storms tend to fall apart quickly once they move inland. Edouard did not.

Nearly 24 hours after making landfall, it still kept its general shape. Wind advisories for gusts up to 40 mph were in effect two days after landfall. 

The real problem, though, was the flooding. The storm dumped 18 to 24 inches on some areas of East Texas. In one town, 27.53 inches of rain fell. This all forced  dozens of rescues from flooded cars, homes, even an assisted living facility. 

So it was a destructive mess, but at least it wasn't as bad as a full hurricane.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Edouard was a persistent little devil. But this is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. You'd expect full-blown hurricanes this time of year, but nothing. We've had five tropical storms this year in the Atlantic, and none made it to hurricane status. 

Three of the storms - Arthur, Bertha and Edouard - affected the western Gulf Coast. 

The United States is enjoying a very quiet hurricane season so far thanks to the big giant El Nino that has developed eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Ninos affect weather patterns around the world.

In the Atlantic Ocean, El Nino creates strong upper level winds. Tropical storms start out as clumps of thunderstorms over the tropical oceans.  The strong upper level winds rips those storms apart. Or, if a tropical storm or hurricane has formed and then encounters those strong winds way high up, the thunderstorms in the tropical system either get ripped apart or get tugged away from the storm's center, causing a weakening trend.

Unless things change dramatically in the Atlantic Ocean soon, this could easily be among the quietest hurricane seasons on record. Which is a nice switch from the slew of busy, destructive seasons we've had in recent years. 

The East Coast of the United States is being spared a bad hurricane season, but we're not out of the woods. We could always have a late season hurricane. And El Nino could well create extreme late autumn and winter storms that would cause their own damage. 

PACIFIC OCEAN

On the other hand, Pacific Ocean hurricanes love El Ninos. 

The ocean is oddly warm during El Ninos, and upper level winds are light. Perfect conditions for incubating hurricanes. 

This year, hurricanes have been forming one after another in the eastern Pacific Ocean and then heading west.

Hurricane Lowell is currently the most concerning of the bunch. It was spinning several hundred miles south of Hawaii. It's was a major hurricane with winds of 140 mph. Meteorologists think it will turn a sharp turn north and eventually pass perilously close to the western Hawaiian islands. However, that forecast is still really uncertain, so stay tuned. 

As of Thursday morning, Hurricane Karina was churned well east of the Hawaii with top winds of 115 mph..

.Hurricane Marie was several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It had winds of 90 mph and was strengthening as it headed northwestward away from Mexico

Another tropical storm could form off the southwest coast of Mexico in the coming days.