"Kelvin Wave" The Latest Meteorological Buzz Word: What To Worry About. Spoiler: Very Little For Most Of Us

A schematic showing how a Kevin waves work. In this
case it's a bulge of warm water and and a temporary
sea level rise of at least six inches rise that can 
exacerbate coastal flooding. 

Polar Vortex. Heat Dome. El Nino. Bomb Cyclone.

Lots of weather buzz words have come up in recent years. The terms have become bogeymen in social media, becoming monsters lurking to kill us all at the right moment. Even if all to these aren't exactly the end of the world. 

Now we have another one. Kelvin waves. 

Before we get into it, I'll be honest. A Kelvin wave along the West Coast won't affect you much at all, unless you live or work right along the ocean front.  

Kelvin waves are huge slow-moving pulses of warm subsurface ocean water that travel along the equator until they smack against a coastline.

They form when trade winds slow down or stop. This Kelvin wave in the Pacific is reinforcing the current record breaking El Nino. It moved westward across the Pacific before smacking into the west coast of South America. 

From there, the Kelvin waves moved both north and south. One batch moved southward along the South American coast. The other went north along the Mexican coast and the on to the U.S. West Coast.

The Kelvin wave has moved as far north as around San Francisco so far.  

Kelvin waves are not something anyone can see. They're just a subtle, huge ridge in the water. 

The Associated Press explains further: 

"Kelvin waves are not like tsunamis, and they don't curl over and crash on the beach. A better image is water sloshing in the bathtub or a swimming pool during an earthquake.

In the ocean, they are bulges of water that lift the sea level as they move along the coast. They're common during El Nino event, but this year's El Nino could intensify the impacts, experts say."

The six inch to foot tall surge is moving north along the California coast and will eventually raise water levels somewhat in Oregon and Washington, too.The Kelvin wave now hitting the West Coast has the potential for worsening coastal flooding, There's no real storm this week along the California coast, but there's been some swells from distant hurricanes. 

Last month, while the Kelvin wave was building, , elevated sea levels and waves from offshore Hurricane Marie caused destructive waves along the southern California coast, especially around Long Beach. 

There's nothing especially damaging going on now. So this particular Kelvin wave isn't likely to cause an enormous amount of damage. 

But the risk isn't over.

The current Kelvin wave is the first of what will probably be several such waves between now and about next February. El Ninos typically produce five or six of these, and the one ongoing now is only the first. 

Even before any Kelvin waves hit, the sea level is already elevated due to climate change. The risk is when new Kelvin waves hit when high astronomical "King Tides." and strong storms hit at the same time. 

That kind of triple attack would cause a ton of damage along the California coast.

King Tides are expected on November 24-26, December 23-25 and January 21-22.  

El Ninos have historically unleashed a series of severe storms onto the California coast.  Imagine if, say, over the Christmas holiday, there is a Kelvin wave, a King Tide and a severe storm all hitting at the same time. 

That's what keeps emergency managers up at night. 

El Nino is looming. There's no guarantee California will succumb to severe storms, high, damaging tides and battering waves.  But it's definitely something to prepare for.  

The Cold, Blustery Weather Is Here As A Vermont Autumn Deepens

There's subtle fall foliage in pine trees, too. The late 
afternoon sun lights up the golden tone of pine
needles on the trees that are about to fall
off as autumn continues 

The strong cold front passed through Vermont his morning, setting off no more than some scattered showers. There was briefly a weird, heavy one east of St. Albans, but for most of us, it was just light stuff. And widely scattered. Many places got no rain at all.  

 Today and tomorrow will give us our first bout with wind chills. The actual air temperature will be chilly, of course, but winds will make it feel noticeably worse. As always. let's get into it:

TODAY

A slot of drier air will give us some partly sunny skies this morning with mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Maybe more partly sunny in the lower Connecticut River Valley.  

The cold air flooding in, combined with with a secondary cold front could set off a few light, cold showers here and there, but those won't be anything to worry about. 

After peaking in the 55 to 60 degree range later this afternoon, temperatures should slowly fall this afternoon as the west and northwest winds pick up. Wind chills will fall through the 40s today, and into the 30s overnight as the wind continues to blow.

Since the wind will continue to blow overnight tonight, we won't settle into a calm, hard frost. Instead, temperatures will fall to near 32 degrees across much of the state. That's still a garden killer, frost or not. You'll still need to do your emergency pre-frost harvest today.

The Champlain Valley, especially near the lake, will probably eke out a night staying above freezing.

TUESDAY

It'll be another blustery and cool day. But with more sunshine. By blustery, I don't mean howling, screaming winds. Just gusts in the 20 to 30 mph. Enough to make it feel cooler than it is. The wind today and tomorrow will probably push the foliage past peak in the Northeast Kingdom, but the colors will remain safe in the rest of the state. The wind is certainly by no means anything unusual. 

Highs temperatures Tuesday should rise only just to within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. 

The air will get very. very dry, especially during the afternoon. If you have trouble with dry skin and chapped lips, this will not be your day. 

Tuesday night will be the cold, frosty one. Most places in Vermont will have a garden season-ending frost. The Champlain Valley, especially near the lake, could escape the frost. Especially since a very gentle south winds could begin to blow in the few hours before sunrise.

WEDNESDAY

The cold high pressure will head off to our east. South winds will pick up, and it will get gusty again in the Champlain Valley.  But it will be a little warmer, as highs get to near 60 degrees, give or take. Skies should stay partly sunny.

THURSDAY THROUGH WEEKEND

We'll be in a fast westerly pattern with weak cold fronts and disturbances coming in every other day or so, give or take. That means seasonable temperatures, periods of somewhat windy weather and very little rain.

 

Chilly Morning In Vermont; Even Colder Start To The New Week. Garden Killer?

These vibrant flowers in my window boxes in St.
Albans, Vermont might not be so vibrant after the
upcoming cold weather Monday and Tuesday. 

OK, Saturday was just perfect in Vermont. Deep blue skies, crisp air, gorgeous foliage. Probably the best autumn weather day of the year. 

As expected, we had a clear, cold night in Vermont, typical for early October. Most places saw a dawn with temperatures in the 30s. A few spots in western Vermont were in the 40s. In those places, the first stirrings of some south winds flushed some of the cool air out. 

TODAY

Today, the south winds will pick up. High clouds will increase, too, but it will still be a nice day. Highs will get into the 60s. So if you missed yesterday, you still have a decent day today. 

Then we get into hard core autumn tomorrow with a slight hint of winter. 

MONDAY

Our cold, blustery cold front is still on schedule for Monday morning. It might have some light showers near and along it, but that's not the story. It'll come through in the morning, and by afternoon, we'll know that autumn is getting serious. 

Temperatures during the day will stay steady or fall through the 50s. Winds will pick up from the northwest, gusting to 30 or 35 mph in spots. Leaves will fly through the air, the temperature will drop. There could even be a snowflake or two at the mountain summits.

 It won't exactly be wintry, but close enough. The weather will have a bite to it. Or, depending on your attitude toward winter, it will just bite. 

Do your emergency frost harvests in the gardens, and take in your sensitive plants for the upcoming winter. 

I'm getting all dramatic here, but in the grand scheme of things, this isn't all that unusual. We do get these early October cold snaps from time to time. We're not used to it, given our recent warm Octobers. 

It's been far worse this time of year. A large, damaging snowstorm hit large parts of Vermont and New York on this date in 1987. In 1965, Burlington's high temperatures on October 4 and 5 were in the 30s. So yes, it could be much tougher than what we're predicting for Monday and Tuesday. 

TUESDAY

The day will start cold, but not the typical calm, frosty start we often see this time of year. The wind will have kept blowing all night. Some areas will wake up to a freeze, one that is virtually frost-freeze but most certainly still a garden killer. 

The rest of the day will be quite cool, but calmer than Monday. And sunnier. Highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50. 

Tuesday night will feature calm winds, clear skies and cold temperatures. Most places in Vermont should get to near or below freezing. Some areas right near Lake Champlain will probably escape the frost. But, for the most part, those of us who haven't had our first frost of the season.

REST OF WEEK

It'll be a quiet period with generally partly to mostly sunny daytimes, with seasonable highs in the low to mid 60s.  The only chance of rain might come at the end of the week, with light, isolated showers as a lame little disturbances comes through. 

That's great news for the leaf peepers vacationing in Vermont. Or for those of us who like to drive the back roads this time of year to look at the foliage. In some years, big storms strip the foliage from the trees, cutting short the best of the season. Not this year. 

Foliage season will eventually end, but not this week. 

Rain Misses Most Of Vermont Again, Beautiful Day Today, Brief Cold Snap Early Week

A nice sunset after a dark, rainy day in St. Albans, 
Vermont on Friday. While far northwestern Vermont
got some decent rains, the showers largely
missed most of the rest of the state. 

 Yesterday's cold front only managed to bring substantial rain to far northwestern Vermont. 

My unofficial rain gauge up in St. Albans caught a very nice 1.02 inches of rain. Burlington had a respectable 0.49. But everywhere else - pfft.  

We knew southeastern Vermont would miss out, but central parts of the state did, too. Montpelier managed to receive just 0.16 inches. St. Johnsbury and Rutland had less than a tenth of an inch.

Very little rain is in the cards for the next week. Most of us need the rain, but we're still going to have to wait awhile for it. 

On the bright side, the rest of today will be, well, bright. A perfect fall day, really. Head out to leaf peep, but stay off the traditional tourist roads - they'll be jammed for sure. 

Highs should reach within either side of 60 degrees. The cool air will prompt frost in some areas tonight, but I think the Champlain Valley is mostly safe. For now. That'll change soon. More on that in a bit. 

TOMORROW

Another nice one. Patchy fog and frost early in the day, as is traditional in Vermont for early October.  We might have some clouds come in during the afternoon, but overall it will be pleasant, with highs in the 60s. 

MONDAY

Here's where things take a cold turn. A cold front will come through in the morning. It won't have much moisture to work with, but it will be a very dynamic system which could be enough to set off some light showers. 

But the real news is the blast of cold air coming in. Depending on when the cold front actually comes through, at least part of the day will prove to be a windy, cold day. You're going to want to dig some of your warmer clothes out from the back of the closet. This will be no means be record-setting, but it will be our first minimal hint of winter. 

The timing of the front will determine when it gets cold on Monday. Early guesses are that temperatures will fall through the 50s in the afternoon. 

By evening, temperatures will be crashing, northwest winds could gust to 30 mph. Home heaters and wood stoves will go on for the first time this autumn. The last vestiges of the cold front's moisture could throw a few snowflakes onto the mountain summits, or coat the stunted trees atop those mountains with a bit of rime ice. 

Monday will be a very good day to put on your warm coat and do an emergency frost harvest in your garden. For most places, except right near Lake Champlain, will very likely see the growing season decidedly end. Your garden will be a wilted mess by either Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

TUESDAY

Winds will continue to blow Monday night. The winds will prevent frost, but a lot of places will get below freezing, so that would kill remaining garden plants. 

During the day, the wind will continue to blow, adding a wind chill to the air. But the sun will be out. Call it a chilly fall day. Highs will stay in the low 50s, give or take. 

Tuesday night will go below freezing everywhere except maybe right near Lake Champlain.  Colder spots will go well into the 20s. 

REST OF NEXT WEEK

A warming trend. Nothing wild. Just back up to near normal temperatures. We'll have at least some sun every day, and there's a good chance most if not all days Wednesday through Friday will be at least partly sunny, if not clear. 

The cold snap and wind Monday and Tuesday probably will have ended the foliage season up in the Northeast Kingdom, but the rest of the state should be dressed very nicely in fall colors. The good think about a lack of storms is that high winds and heavy rain won't be around to strip off the leaves before we get a good look at them.  

Vermont September Was Dry. Burlington Had Coolest September Since 2013, But Still Historically Warmish

Henry the weather dog, right, and his larger
friend, Cooper, left, together enjoy a very
pleasant day on September 14. The month
was cooler than recent Septembers, and
there were plenty of sunny, pleasantly
cool days like this one. 

If you look at the past 138 years Septembers in Burlington, this September was pretty middle of the road as far as temperatures go. 

Even with that, this September in Burlington was the coolest since 2013. Climate change has altered what we considered "normal."

 If this past month happened during the middle of the 20th century it would have been near average, maybe even a little warm side. 

The average temperature in Burlington was 61.2 degrees, or 1.5 degrees cooler than what is now considered "average.'

To give you an idea how much has changed since climate change really started causing havoc with the weather I give you this: Thirty years ago, the normal September average temperature in Burlington was 59.4 degrees. Which would have made this past September a warmer than typical month.

Elsewhere in Vermont, September, 2026 temperatures were close to "normal." The modern, warmer "normal."   Places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Rutland and Woodstock were all came in within a degree of this new normal.

September was a dry month in most places. Burlington was 1.68 inches below normal. The 1.99 inches of rain that did fall on Burlington made it the 26th driest record out of the past 138 years. 

Montpelier was almost as dry as Burlington, coming in at 1.25 inches on the light side.  Parts of southeastern Vermont had near normal precipitation, thanks in large part to a late month nor'easter.

The dry weather is continuing to worsen drought or near-drought conditions across Vermont. The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, shows abnormally dry conditions expanded to include almost all of the northern two-thirds of Vermont. Last week. western parts of the state had adequate moisture. Now, most of the Champlain Valley is dry, too. 

At least actual drought hasn't really expanded. At least for now. Like last week, moderate drought encompasses about a quarter of the state, in the Northeast Kingdom. 

On the bright side, the dry weather gave us plenty of absolutely gorgeous, comfortable September days featured blue skies and just the earliest hints of autumn in the air. 

LOOKING AHEAD

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is pretty non-committal with the outlook for October.  They give New England equal chances of above or below normal temperatures, and equal chances of above or below normal rainfall. 

Looking at NOAA's eight to 14 day outlook, taking us into mid-October gives us cool-ish to near normal temperatures, and near to perhaps edging toward below normal precipitation.  Which is too bad, we need at least a couple really soggy months to make Vermont adequately wet again. 

As always, we shall see!

  

Showers Dampening Vermont Ahead Of Classic Autumn Weekend

Early autumn calls starting to show under an overcast 
skies near Georgia, Vermont Thursday.  Clouds were
thicker than forecast yesterday. 

The weather forecasts seemed to be creaky lately.  

I'm not dissing National Weather Service meteorologists, they're working super hard. They're professional and dedicated 

But I think Trump-inspired cuts to the NWS might be interfering with picky details in the computer models. Not enough data is hitting those computer thingamajigs. 

Which might be creating more than picky mistakes in some weather forecasts.

I don't have any proof of this. And I know I'm oversimplifying a potential problem here.  Weather forecasts are almost never 100 percent accurate. Nature does what nature does. Nature still holds some secrets that meteorologists and other scientists haven't uncovered yet. 

But it seems that in the past week, forecast misses have been coming almost every day.   I hope somebody out there is researching the effects of Trump's cuts to the NWS and science in general to see that's all messing with weather forecasting

This rant is inspired by yesterday's weather. Broad brush, the forecast was correct. It was supposed to be relatively warm, relatively humid for this time of year, and that's what happened. 

But it was still cooler than forecast - near 70 instead of well up in the 70s.  Instead of variable cloudiness a thick, dark overcast hung over at least parts of Vermont for a good portion of the day, mostly in the afternoon. 

Now, what's going on with the weather over the next couple of days looks pretty straight-forward, so I have hopes that the forecasts for the next couple of days will turn out pretty accurate. Let's get into it: 

TODAY

Dawn broke today much like a sort of muggy July morning. Temperatures at 6 a.m. were in the mid to upper 60s in most spots. Montpelier was at 70 degrees. Rutland was at 71. 

Don't worry, it won't be a hot day, far from it. A cold front was making its way into Vermont early this  morning with a batch of showers. 

I think this would have been an almost dry cold frontal passage, if not for Hurricane Polo. That hurricane came ashore early this week a zillion miles away from us in Mexico's Baja California. 

But its remnants spread flooding rains into the Desert Southwest and Plains, and injected moisture along the front all the way up into our neck of the woods. 

Unfortunately for those of us who want and need a  lot of rain, this won't be the moment. The front is moving fast enough so that it won't have time to deposit much rain here. 

Most of us will receive a half inch or less. Storm totals will be maybe a quarter inch in many areas, give or take.Southern Vermont, especially the southeast, will probably get less than a tenth of an inch. 

The fast movement of the cold front will mean rain should pretty much be over in northwest Vermont by early afternoon, and mid to late afternoon elsewhere. 

Temperatures should hold steady or fall for the rest of the day as cooler air comes in and mostly cloudy skies linger after the bulk of the run has ended.

SATURDAY

We're still looking at a classic autumn day.  We'll have bright sunshine under blue skies. with highs within a few degrees either side of 60 degrees. Perfect conditions for leaf peeping, pumpkin shopping, fall festivals, you name it. 

Watch out for frost overnight. Carry in your sensitive plants that are still out there.  All my sensitive tropical-ish plants on my deck are coming in, mostly because of what's coming next week. More on that in a bit. 

SUNDAY

The day will start with patchy fog and frost. Here's a hint for leaf peepers and photographers: Get out there early, while it's still foggy. There's something magical about the sun breaking through the fog amid the multi-colored tree.s

Some clouds will come in during the day, but it will still be nice. Highs should get into the low 60s. Maybe mid-60s in the warmer valleys. 

MONDAY

A sharp cold front will come through, with maybe a few showers and more solid blast of chilly air. Highs should only reach the 50s as gusty northwest winds blowing through. The day could start out relatively mild, but it should turn out to be a cold day.  I wouldn't even be surprised if a few snow flurries grace the mountain peaks. 

Monday night will be cold, with a potentially widespread freeze, except right near Lake Champlain. 

TUESDAY

Another prematurely chilly day. Early guesses are the sun will be out, but highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. This isn't incredibly cold for early October -  we've had highs in the upper 30s to near 40 this time of year.  

But it will be a shock to the system. Especially since recent Octobers have been so warm. On the same dates that this cool snap will hit, it was in the 80s last year. 

Alito Recuses Himself From Climate Case; Proves Public Pressure Can Sometimes Work

Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito is recusing himself
from a case involving fossil fuel companies, reversing
his earlier plans thanks to public pressure. 

Public pressure against injustice actually sometimes works. Even when it involves the Supreme Court. 

Per CNN:

"Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito announced Monday that he will recuse himself from a major climate change-related case the court is set to hear next week, following weeks of pressure from environmental groups that argued he was compromised by his financial holdings in the oil and gas industry."

Alito sent a letter to the court clerk saying he would not participate in the case, but did not explain the reasoning behind his decision. 

The case involves Boulder, Colorado and whether it can sue Suncor Energy and ExonMobil for damages caused by climate change. Or whether state laws are pre-empted by federal law and separation of powers principles in the Constitution. 

The Supreme Court case will have a big impact on similar legislation on other states, including Vermont. 

Even with Alito apparently out of the picture,  it's unclear whether the rest of the Supreme Court will side with Boulder. The Supreme Court hasn't really been friendly to environmental initiatives in recent years. 

Alito owns stock in ConocoPhillips and Phillips 66, among other energy holdings, CNN reports. 

In any event, Alito's turnaround is a bit of surprise. Back in May, a Supreme Court spokesman had said that since Alito doesn't have stock in the oil companies involved in the court case, he needn't recuse himself. 

Alito's recusal came after a lot of public pressure. As Scotusblog reports:

"In May, a coalition of left-leaning watchdog groups urged the Senate Judiciary Committee to investigate Alito's involvement in the dispute, contending that his 'substantial holdings in individual oil and gas companies' among other issues, would 'undermine(e) public confidence in the impartiality of the Court.

They stated that Alito had 'previously recused from considering a petition brought by' the same companies involved in Suncor Energies, 'There is no apparent reason for this change in Justice Alito's recusal practices, and Alison provided no statement justifying his failure to recuse,' the groups wrote." 

There's a lot to complain about regarding our current U.S. Supreme Court, but this was at least a small victory in the name of fairness.