Vermont Going From Summer Heat To Frost/Freeze Cold

A spectacular sunset last evening marked the transition
to much cooler weather after our heat wave. Now,
frost and freeze alerts are up tonight for most of Vermont

Well, our heat wave is certainly over in Vermont as we go back to early spring chill. From 90 degrees in parts of Vermont Tuesday to frost and even freezes in much of the state by Friday morning. The weather whiplash continues. 

More on the expected frost and freeze a little further down. 

Yesterday was a transition day. It started overcast and incredibly warm for May and sort of muggy. By midday, especially in northern Vermont, it turned into a breezy, bright and blue summer day. Burlington reached 81 degrees.

By evening, a layer of mid and high level clouds arrived, with clear skies far to the northwest. This set up one of the best, brightest and most beautiful sunsets we've had in ages. Even outdoing the awesome sunset this past Saturday. 

TODAY

Later, skies cleared, and we start today chilly in the 40s. Those high clouds were still around, so I imagine early risers (VERY early, sunrise was at 5:198 a.m) saw a fantastic sunrise.

If it isn't sunny where you are, it should gradually become so this morning, at least if you're in northern and central Vermont.. The south will tend to stay rather cloudy much of the day, but these will mostly be those high and middle level clouds so some sun should get through. 

Highs should only get within a few degrees of 60 for highs today. It'll be cooler than that north and mountains. That'll set us up for night that will make your plants shiver. Or worse. 

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY

You'd think with a high today in the 55 to 62 degree range, frost would be pretty scattered and light. But the air mass coning in is exceptionally dry. The drier the air, the more it can cool off on clear, calm nights. 

It's why deserts can be 100 degrees or more during the day and near freezing at night.

As such, the National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for all of Vermont and northern New York except the Champlain Valley. A freeze warning is up for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York for expected temperatures below 32 degrees.

For now, the Champlain Valley, west of Route 7 looks safe. Maybe. Look for updates this afternoon because updated forecasts might well be colder than I'm depicting here. 

The National Weather Service is considering an upgrade to a freeze warning in north central Vermont, and maybe issuing a frost advisory for the Champlain Valley. Those meteorologists are waiting on updated guidance this afternoon before they decide what to do. 

Despite the warm climate changed springs we've had in recent years, I guess that old adage is still true. Don't put out sensitive plants like tomatoes until after Memorial Day.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

After the morning frost, Friday itself should be gorgeous with sunshine and highs well into the 60s to around 70.

The rest of the weekend is still a pretty big question mark. Saturday looks dry, according to most computer models. But they are disagreeing on whether rain comes in Sunday, and if so how much. Monday has a better shot at getting wet, but again, the timing and amount of rain are still very, very open to debate.

Crazy Vermont/Northeast Heat About To End; Records Set, MUCH Cooler Air On Our Doorsteps

A sea of lilacs as viewed from my back deck in St. 
Albans, Vermont. The hot temperatures of the past
few days made them rapidly bloom. Hopefully
the upcoming cooler weather will preserve the
blooms and the fragrance for awhile. 

 We just managed to do it yesterday in Burlington. 

After clouds held temperatures in the 86 or 87 degree range much of the afternoon, skies cleared and helped boost temperatures to 90 degrees again. Second day in a row that happened. Tuesday's high fell just one degree short of the record high set in 1989.

Other cities in the Northeast set record highs in a big way.

In Philadelphia, it was 98 degrees, setting a new record for the hottest temperature in the entire month of May. Newark, New Jersey at 99 degrees and Manchester, New Hampshire at 97 degrees tied the record high for the month of May. 

Manchester shattered the record for the date by eight degrees, which is quite an accomplishment. 

Other record highs include 96 in Boston, 93 in Providence and 92 in Portland, Maine. 

All these are extraordinary hot temperatures for so early in the season.  

Back here in Vermont, unlike the day before, the morning didn't start cool. The low temperature in Burlington yesterday was  was 71 degrees, breaking a 123-year old record.

This May heat might portend a hot summer. The number crunching meteorologists at WCAX discovered that if the first 90 degree day of the year hits in June, which is what usually happens, on average the enter year will have eight days of 90 degree heat.

If the first 90 hits in May, then on average 11 days during the year will touch at least 90 

Also yesterday, those thunderstorms failed to materialize in Vermont. As we mentioned yesterday, it could have gone either way.  A weather disturbance that could have touched off some storms passed through the Green Mountain State in the late morning. That was too early to touch off anything more than light showers.

The disturbance did generate some thunderstorms in far southern Vermont and in southern New England. The storms in Connecticut were strong enough to knock down a few trees. 

TODAY

Big changes are afoot, but it will take a little while to get here. 

Early morning temperatures across Vermont were extraordinarily warm.  At 7 a.m, Burlington hit their low temperature for the day so far at 76 degrees. Not long after dawn at 6 a.m., it was 74 in Montpelier and Rutland and 72 degrees in Newport. These would easily be candidates for the hottest, stuffiest nights of the month in July. 

We won't set any records for highest low temperature today because by midnight tonight, it will much cooler than what we saw early today. 

Our cold front looked like it was in eastern New York as of 8 a.m. today and will come through Vermont thorough the rest of this morning.  Forecasts call for highs to get cut off in the upper 70s to near 80 north and in the low to perhaps mid 80s far south. 

Meanwhile, our friends in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States will endure one more torrid May day. 

Here in lilac-scented Vermont, though, you'll notice the change in the air today by mid afternoon north and late afternoon south. Even thought the sun should come out, temperatures will be slowly falling amid northwest breezes, humidity levels will fall. Summer will temporally end in favor of spring. 

THURSDAY

You'll need to dig out your fleece and long pants if you're taking your dog for a walk early tomorrow. We'll wake up to early morning temperatures in the low 40s. That's not ridiculous for May, but it is another shocking weather whiplash moment. 

Highs will only get into the 50s to near 60 north and low to mid 60s south, which is actually about 10 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Skies should be at least partly sunny, but there might be some more clouds north and mountains away from the Champlain Valley. 

Away from the Champlain Valley, we're actually back to a risk of some frost in some spots Thursday night and early Friday morning. We'll have more details on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 

This will feature a standoff between strong, cool high pressure in far eastern Quebec and coastal southeast Canada and storminess to our south and west. 

Depending on how this sets up, it could either be cloudy and cool or partly sunny and seasonable. I'm not yet sure where we're going to go with this. Friday has the best chance of being sunny and nice. Saturday will probably be rain-free, especially north. Showers might or might not come in Sunday, and those showers are somewhat more likely Monday. 

Whatever happens, it looks like whatever rain we get will end up being quite light.

Places further south will have an even bigger change in the weather. Cities like Newark and Philadelphia that were in the upper 90s Tuesday will probably have highs barely making it into the low 50s Saturday under rainy skies. 

Back here in Vermont, we'll probably warm up nicely next week. There's mixed signals as to whether it will be just seasonably warm in the 70s or quite warm in the 80s. But we have time to figure that out.  

Flash Heat Wave Monday, Questions About Heat And Storms Today, Then Sharply Cooler Late Week

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still extends their
slight risk of severe thunderstorms into Vermont.
(Everything in yellow is a slight risk).

That was a wild weather ride on Monday! 

Northern Vermont in particular endured the day's weather whiplash. As I noted in yesterday morning's post, the day began stormy and cold with fitful downpours, local gusty winds and even a rumble or two of thunder. 

Burlington reached 90 degrees by late afternoon, after a rainy early morning low of 51 degrees. By afternoon, we were sweating in a brief May heat wave that is already over-performing. 

I saw somewhere on social media where somebody in Vermont said they ran their furnace in the morning and air conditioner in the afternoon.

I'd call it a flash heat wave. Like a sudden flash flood, only hot air, not water. 

The day featured a rare temperature stat: Burlington had its first 80 degree temperature of the season Sunday. And only a day later, the first 90 of the season hit.  The same thing happened in April, 2002, but I wonder if this week and 2002 were the only times something like that happened. 

There has always been the occasional May in Burlington in which the temperature hit 90. But probably at least in part due to climate change, 90 degree May days are getting more common. In the 109 years in Burlington ending in 2009, we had 14 Mays that reached at least 90 degrees.

But in the 16 years since 2010, there have already been eight such days in May.  

Elsewhere in Vermont, the high in Bennington Monday was 89 degrees. Montpelier reached 86 degrees after a morning low of 46.  A temperature change of 40 degrees in just one day is pretty wild. 

The heat isn't only a Vermont thing, of course. Philadelphia reached 96 degrees Monday, a record for the date. It was also the second hottest May temperature on record.  In New York City, a high of 95 is expected today, followed by an incredibly stuffy overnight low tonight of 77. It should hit 90 degrees in the Big Apple again tomorrow. 

Heat advisories are in effect for much of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Hartford, Connecticut had its second day in a row of 90 degree temperatures Monday. Today's forecast high there is a whopping 96 degrees. The forecast high in Springfield today is 97.

VERMONT FORECAST

Back here in Vermont, the degree of heat today will depend on the level of cloud cover.  Severe thunderstorms are also possible, but there might be factors that allow us to luck out and avoid the worst of the storms. Maybe. 

We're certainly off to a very warm, muggy start. It looks like the low temperature this morning in Burlington was 71 degrees, so if you didn't sleep well in the Champlain Valley, that's why. If that low temperature holds through midnight, it'll break the record for warmest low temperature for the date. (The current record holder is 67 degrees way back in 1903.  

As the day goes on the valleys of southern Vermont have the best chance of reaching 90 degrees today, as they'll have the most sun.  The National Weather Service forecast for Springfield, for instance is 92 degrees.

I think clouds might prevent another 90 degree day in Burlington today, we'll see about that. There was already a batch of clouds and light showers in central and western New York early this morning. Those clouds might not clear out fast enough to allow another 90 degree day. Though we're starting out pretty warm, so it's still possible. 

The next question is severe thunderstorms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 alert on a scale of 5 - for the northwest half of Vermont and a level one marginal risk for the southeast. 

The amount of instability in the atmosphere over us isn't huge over us today, which is a limiting factor for storms. But there is a subtle disturbance in the atmosphere due by early afternoon. That, combined with rising air near mountains could trigger some storms.

Also, cool air coming off of Lake Champlain sometimes creates these teeny tiny miniature cold fronts which are boundaries between the cool lake air and the warmer inland air. Those could be triggering spots for storms. After that, cool winds blasting out of thunderstorms could set up additionally teeny tiny little cold fronts elsewhere, which would trigger more storms. 

Bottom line: Some of us will see showers or storms, some of us will stay dry.  A small number of us could experience strong, even damaging winds from storms. This won't be a widespread severe storm event. 

We don't know who, if anybody will get those rambunctious storms. Pay attention to the skies if you're outdoors, and have a way to receive severe storm warnings, just in case. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

After another stuffy night coming up, Wednesday will bring another big change. A cold front will stumble through, in the morning north, afternoon south and east. The timing of it means the north will probably just see some scattered showers in the morning, with clearing skies and highs in the 70s during the afternoon. 

Southeast Vermont could see some thunderstorms but severe ones seem unlikely, at least for now. Highs in the south look like they want to get up into the 80s

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More big changes in a roller coaster of a weather week. We'll wake up to sharply colder temperatures Thursday morning with lows in the 38 to 45 degrees. Under at least partly sunny if not clear skies, temperatures should only get into the mid and upper 50s north,  and some 60s south. 

Since it will be so cool, there might be some frost Thursday night and early Friday in areas of Vermont away from the Champlain Valley.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

A toss up on how the holiday weekend will turn out. The American weather model keeps showers at bay Saturday and Sunday, leaving us with partly sunny skies and cool highs in the 60s.  The European model brings showers into our area Saturday and Sunday. Both models give us some showers on Monday, Memorial Day. 

Morning Vermont Rain Turns To Brief Hot Spell. Strong Storms Tomorrow?

National Weather Service weather radar this morning
was much busier than many forecasters expected.
The rain was quickly moving out and we'll have
 a sunny, summery afternoon. 

 I called it. 

Up until yesterdays afternoon, many forecasters were pretty unconcerned about any showers coming through Vermont this morning with a warm front. 

I was suspicious, and noted in previous posts that some of us would wake up to showers this morning. Turns out the rain is even more widespread that I originally thought. 

As of 8:30 a.m today, rain was falling across most of northern Vermont, and there were embedded patches of fairly heavy rain. There has even been a few rumbles of thunder in northern New York and north central Vermont. 

Oh well, we had a gorgeous weekend, with Burlington have its first 80 degree day of the season on Sunday. The weather is also still expected to vastly improve this afternoon. 

We're still looking at some summertime highs in the 80s, and there's a few more storm threats after this morning.  Here are the picky details:

TODAY

It was a rather stormy, rainy, sort of raw early morning today in northern Vermont. It was raining steadily outside my St. Albans, Vermont house and gusty winds were tossing the new lilac blooms around. 

I wish the rain hit southern Vermont instead, because it's more needed down there, but you take what you can get. 

Skies should rapidly clear late this morning  into a balmy, summery afternoon after this warm front races on northward into Quebec. 

Hard to believe when you start the day rainy and in the low 50s. But trust me, the warmth is on its way. The warm front had already passed through southern Vermont by 8 a.m. and temperatures down there at dawn had already risen into the 60s.

Most places should hit the low to mid 80s for highs this afternoon.  Tonight will be pretty warm, too, with lows in the 50s away from Lake Champlain and low 60s in the Champlain Valley

TUESDAY

We know it's going to be very warm and increasingly humid, but thunderstorms are kind of a crapshoot. 

There's a level two out of five risk of severe storms tomorrow
in the areas in yellow on this map. Notice a good chunk
of Vermont is in that risk area. 

Temperatures should get into the 80s statewide. A spot 90 degrees isn't out of the question if clouds and showers and storms hold off.  There's some conflicting information on whether we'll have some big time storms tomorrow, or whether any attempt at storms go pfft.   

A big severe weather and tornado outbreak got underway in the Plains and Midwest yesterday, and it is expected to worsen today. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center indicates we in Vermont might get a taste of that. No, we're not going to endure tornadoes that wipe out whole communities or hail the size of canned hams, as David Letterman once forecasted for Indiana in his early days as a TV weatherman back in the day. 

Still, the SPC has a slight risk - alert level 2 for severe storms in the northwestern half of Vermont and a marginal risk, alert level 1, in southeastern Vermont. 

According to NOAA, some storms that develop in the hot, increasingly humid air over Vermont Tuesday afternoon could unleash strong, gusty winds in a few spots. Once again, the Storm Prediction Center says we also have a really, really low, but not zero chance of a spin up tornado, too. 

On the other hand, precipitation forecast call for hardly any rain tomorrow, which doesn't exactly scream severe thunderstorms. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says we'll have plenty of atmospheric instability over Vermont tomorrow. Instability is what can fire thunderstorms, but you need a spark that would get them going. 

That spark tomorrow would be a weak disturbance in the atmosphere teaming up with air current rising near mountain slopes. Will that be enough to trigger severe storms? Stay tuned for updates tomorrow morning. 

WEDNESDAY

We're still working out the timing of a cold front due to come through. The consensus is it might come through midday, which could leave us with a wide range of high temperatures. Don't hold me to this, but we could have a situation in which highs are only in the upper 60s far northwest to upper 80s far southeast. 

Depending on the timing of the front, we could have more strong thunderstorms. If it waits until the mid afternoon to evening to come through, maybe we'll see a few more strong storms. 

THURSDAY

We're back to cool weather, temporarily. The sun should come back out. But some places north might not even get out of the 50s for highs. Areas away from the Champlain Valley could see a few areas of frost. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

I might as well say it: I have no idea. The weather looks like it might turn unsettled. The computer models disagree on when some rain might return.  Friday looks safe at this point. Some of the models postpone rain until Sunday. We'll figure this out eventually. 

It'll stay relatively cool into the weekend, with highs in the 60s. This is temporary. The overall weather pattern favors warm weather, so I suspect a nice return to almost balmy weather to conclude the month. 

The Good Old Summertime Visits Vermont For A Few Days

An otherworldly view of Lake Champlain near 
Colchester Point, Vermont during sunset 
Saturday evening. 

Saturday was a winner, wasn't it? For a good part of the day we had bright sun, warm breezes, and the leaves on the trees were that perfect peak of new spring foliage in a million different, gleaming shades of green. 

Even when it clouded it up late in the day, it was still spectacular, at least where I was near Lake Champlain. 

The setting sun bouncing off clouds and scattered showers created weird but beautiful hues of deep, otherworldly blue, bright orange and a multitude of other bright and dark shades. 

TODAY

Now it's Sunday morning, and we're starting Part 2 of a beautiful weekend. A bit of haze early this morning gave the sky a baby blue hue, matching nicely with the fresh green of spring. 

We might have a few clouds here and there today but it's going to be gorgeous!

High temperatures will have quite a range across Vermont. Up in the Northeast Kingdom it'll probably hold in the 60s.  A few low 80s might well pop up in the warmer valleys south. 

Most of the rest of  Vermont should hold in the low to mid 70s, but cooler right near Lake Champlain. because of the chilly lake water. Which is where we get into the caution part of the forecast for the next few days. 

The National Weather Service has issued a special weather statement warning of the dangers of cold water. A lot of you will be tempted to jump into the water, kayak, paddle board, or get the sailboats out. 

But if you fall into the water, you're screwed. Lakes and rivers and ponds are still mighty cold. If you fall in, hypothermia sets in damn quickly.  As you quickly get cold, your arms and legs stop working right and you might not be able to swim your way out of trouble. 

Out on the broad areas of Lake Champlain, there should be some gusty northwest winds. Stronger south winds are due tomorrow and Tuesday.  The winds and waves could be enough to tip over kayaks and cause real trouble with other small boats. So you might want to hold off on those lake adventures for awhile. 

MONDAY

Another view of the sunset over Lake Champlain 
Saturday evening in the midst of a beautiful weekend. 

A warm front should blow through in the morning with clouds. There might even be a spot shower here and there, but it won't amount to much. 

The warm front will be up in Canada by afternoon, so we should clear up and turn warm.  Valleys across most of the state will reach the low 80s.  Many of those places, including in the Burlington area, will have their first 80 degree temperatures of the season. 

While all this niceness is going on in New England, the Plains and Midwest will endure a big outbreak of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, high winds, gorilla hail, along with dust and wildfires in some areas. We often complain, with justification, of annoying weather here in Vermont, but at least it's not scary. So count your lucky stars. 

TUESDAY

This will easily be the warmest day of the week. We'll get off to a warm start, as temperatures at the break of dawn will be in the 50s in much of Vermont, and the low 60s in the Champlain Valley. That's a pretty typical start to the day in July. 

The July theme will keep going as highs for most of us should reach the 80s. Also just like July, there's a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Forecasters are still struggling with how many clouds those storms will bring, how early in the afternoon the showers and storms will start, and how widespread they'll become. 

Those factors will determine how warm it gets. If there's lots of clouds and rain and showers, temperatures will hold near 80. If the sun lasts most of the day, some spots could flirt with 90.  Cloud and showers appear less likely in the southeast than in the northwest. 

With that in mind, for now at least,  the National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a highs of 81 degrees in St. Albans, 85 in Burlington, 86 in Montpelier, 87 in Rutland and 90 in Springfield. 

Those wouldn't be record highs, as all time highs for Tuesday's date around Vermont are in the 90 to 92 degree range. 

But Tuesday will be hotter than we're accustomed to, and it will be turning more humid. You'll want to take it easy with the outdoor work and/or recreation. 

WEDNESDAY

We're still waiting on clarity as to when during Wednesday a cold front comes through. If it blows through in the morning, we just get a few showers followed by drier and eventually cooler air. If it's late in the day, we could see a couple strong thunderstorms in a few places. Stay tuned on that one. 

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

Long range forecasts get dicey and are prone to change. But Thursday and Friday look relatively cool, but not weird or annoying for this time of year. Early guesses call for highs in the 60s.  Signs point toward maybe some rain later Friday or Saturday, but that's not a promise. The forecast will probably change quite a bit between now and then.  

After The Nice Rains, Parts Of Vermont Still Need More. Instead, Get Ready For A Quick Heat Flash

NOAA's "water year" map. A water year goes from
October 1 to September 30. In the water year so
far, almost all of New England is behind
schedule with rainfall. Some places are eight
inches or more shy on rainfall. The only place
in New England that's near normal is northwest
Vermont. Click on the map to make it bigger
and easier to see. 

We have a much more complete accounting of that nice rain we received this week in the increasingly Green Mountain State. We have a lot to be thankful for. 

The only disappointment was the heaviest rain avoided southern Vermont where it was more needed, but at least they got a decent wetting to get them through a few more days. 

The big winner in the Vermont rainfall sweepstakes seems to be Orange County. Good, because much of that county was regarded as dry in the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor and the southern tip of the south was in drought. 

In Orange County and southern Caledonia counties, rainfall exceeded two inches, including 2.63 inches in Corinth, 2.43 inches in Stratford and 2.34 inches in Groton. 

Virtually all of central and northern Vermont received one to two inches of rain. 

Windham County in southeastern Vermont is the most droughty area of Vermont. They got anywhere between 0.75 and 1.25 inches, so, not bad.

Bennington County was regarded as abnormally dry, too, especially near the Massachusetts border. Unfortunately, the rainfall distribution there was wrong. They got anywhere from a quarter inch near the Mass border to an inch as you get closer to Rutland County to the  north. 

NEED STILL MORE RAIN

It might seem like the streams are running strong and the soil is mushy underfoot. Yet there's still a water deficit left over from last year, sort of our drought hangover.

NOAA watches something called the water year. It's the accumulation of precipitation - rain, melted snow and ice - from October 1 through September 30. 

Here in the Northeast, as of mid-May, most places are having a below normal water year, and some places are ridiculously below normal.  Parts of southern and eastern New England are more than eight inches behind normal as of now 

Here in Vermont, Bennington County is one of those places that is at least eight inches short on rainfall since the beginning of last October. Most of the remainder of Vermont is lacking in rainfall.  The rest of southern Vermont outside of Bennington County is   between four and eight inches shy on precipitation. North central and Northeast Vermont is one to four inches behind schedule.

The only lucky place in all of New England is northwest Vermont. Precipitation there since October 1, 2025 is pretty close to normal.

Next up, not much rain is in the forecast, but it's going to turn much warmer. And overall, warm air creates more evaporation than cooler air, so it'll dry us out faster. Some details: 

TODAY

We started the day mild and sunny, which is a fantastic way to start a Saturday. It'll get breezy, and you'll see more and more clouds mixing this afternoon. There's even a chance of a light spot shower late in the day, but most of us will say dry. Highs get well into the 70s, so that'll be a nice switch from what we endured all week. 

By the way, today, and over the next few days,  it will be quite a bit cooler near Lake Champlain. The water is still cold, and winds blowing off the lake will dramatically cool the air in places next to the lake. 

SUNDAY

The disturbance that would bring the widely scattered showers later today includes the lamest of cold fronts. So northern areas will probably "only" make it into the low 70s under sunny skies. Somehow, I think we'll endure those "chillier" conditions. Southern Vermont stays warm with highs in the 70s to around 80

MONDAY

Summer preview is on!  There still might be a spot shower early in the day north with a warm front passing through, but overall, sunny and breezy with highs in the low 80s in most valleys is on tap. In the grand scheme of things, low 80s isn't exactly hot, but we're not used to such temperatures, so take it easy with the heavy outdoor work

TUESDAY

It looks like it's going to be hotter and more humid. For now, forecasters are expecting highs right up there in the 80s. How hot it gets depends on afternoon clouds and the timing of scattered showers and thunderstorms  If it stays clear until later in the day, some areas could flirt with 90 degrees. If there were more showers and storms than expected, readings would hold near 80 degrees. 

Either way, it'll get kind of humid, so take it easy out there

WEDNESDAY

A wild card. It all depends when an expected cold front comes through. If it's late in the day, it'll be in the 80s again, and humid. A late day cold front also increases the chances of scattered strong thunderstorms. 

If the front comes through earlier in the day, the chances of big storms goes very much downhill. And you'll notice refreshingly drier air late in the day. Stay tuned on that one.

LATE WEEK

Definitely cooler, but not nearly as chilly as this week has been. Highs then should be in the 60s.

Severe Weather, Tornadoes, Ramping Up In The Middle U.S. Again

A dust storm in rural North Dakota caused vehicle 
crashes. The dust storms spread across wide
areas of the northern Plains and southern Canada.
Photo from North Dakota Highway Patrol

The same weather pattern that kept us in Vermont pretty cool and showery for the first half of May also suppressed severe weather in Tornado Alley. 

Sure, there were some severe storms, high winds, hail and a few tornadoes over the past couple weeks. 

But not the frightening, powerhouse tornado outbreaks that often terrorize the Plains, Midwest and South this time of year.

That's about to change. That shouldn't be surprising, as this is the peak of severe storm season. 

ALREADY STARTED

We had the first hint of that on Wednesday and Thursday. A strong storm system in southwestern Canada swept high winds through the northern Rockies, northern Plains and into Manitoba, Canada.  

The dust storms with this weather system actually started on Wednesday in Utah and Idaho. The dust storm there caused an eight-car pileup in Utah.  The storm created a blast furnace in Montana, where record highs were set  in Havre, Great Falls, Bozeman and Billings, where it was 95 degrees. 

The heat was accompanied by intense winds. Big Sandy and Livingston, Montana gusted to 85 mph, Toston, Montana reached 78 mph and Havre reached 74 mph. A line of severe thunderstorms amid this chaos created a rare for Montana haboob.

The blowing dust continued in Montana Thursday, and spread into the Dakotas and Manitoba Thursday.  In some parts of Manitoba, rain showers collided with dust clouds, making it basically rain mud in a few places. 

IT WILL GET WORSE

Weather patterns are setting up in such a way to encourage more severe weather and tornadoes. Today, people from Texas to Wisconsin are under the gun, but Iowa seems like the main target. Although tornadoes are a possibility, the real threat late this afternoon and tonight is giant hail and winds to 75 mph. 

It's been a tough year for huge hailstones, and this could add to the destructive drama. 

Saturday

The "fun" is forecast to keep going in Iowa tomorrow, and spread into Nebraska and northern Kansas, where the best chance of bad storms arises. 

The risks look similar to today's. A couple tornadoes could spin up, but the biggest threat is huge hailstones and strong straight line winds. Remember, hail storms can easily be more damaging than tornadoes. Hail usually covers a much wider area in a storm than a tornado path would. 

Sunday

This looks like it might be the more dangerous day of the string of severe weather days. The early thinking is some supercells will develop in Nebraska and southern South Dakota and move east. That raises the risk for a tornado outbreak. 

The supercells will then congeal into a line of powerful storms moving into Iowa. Those wild storms could well include embedded tornadoes, and some of them could be strong, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

Monday

Monday will probably be the most dangerous day
out of the next several for severe storms in tornadoes
The darker orange area has the highest risk. 

This is the day to really watch the weather closely. Especially if you're anywhere between Texas and Michigan. The highest risk looks to be in some of the places that are likely to get hammered this weekend. Plus some new areas. 

That means Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, much of Missouri, Oklahoma and eastern South Dakota need to be on their toes. 

The Storm Prediction Center says that some of the tornadoes expected to touch down might be strong to intense, which is never a happy prediction. 

Most tornadoes are relatively week EF-0s and EF-1s.  

Stronger tornadoes, EF-2s and EF-3s, with winds of between 111 and 165 mph, represent about 15 percent of all U.S. tornadoes and account for about 25 percent of U.S. tornado deaths, give or tak

Less than one percent of all U.S. tornadoes are EF-4s or EF-5s, with winds of 166 mph and up. But those powerful twisters cause roughly 70 percent of all U.S. tornado deaths.  

The bottom line: Pray for weak tornadoes because the strong ones create the worst tragedies. 

Tuesday and Beyond

Severe storms are expected to continue in the Midwest Tuesday, then move more toward the south and southeast Wednesday and beyond. Exactly where the worst storms might fire up later in the week is till TBA