Another Frosty Vermont Morning In Spots, Nice Weather To Be Followed by Nor'easter Effects, How Much Rain?

Yesterday, a beautiful Wednesday in Vermont, showed that
fall foliage isn't that far along yet, as this view from a 
high spot in Richmond shows. If we get wind and rain
from the weekend nor'easter, it won't wreck this year's
foliage season because things aren't 
that far long yet. 

 As expected, it was another chilly September morning today, but very typical for the season. 

Most of Vermont was in the mid-30s at dawn, with a few spots in the low 30s. The Champlain Valley was closer to 40 degrees. Southern Vermont was chillier than yesterday. Bennington was down to 33 degrees.

As always, there was a lot of fog in the valleys, which will burn off this morning. Chances are it will be gone by the time you read this. This will yield another beautiful autumn day with lots of sunshine and highs well into the 60s. 

FRIDAY

The day will dawn cool again, but probably not quite as cool as this morning. So the chances of frost are lower, but there might be a spot or two in the coldest areas. The early morning fog will be back, too. It'll be another sunny, beautiful day, Some high clouds will come in especially south. That'll be the first sign of the nor'easter in Vermont

NOR'EASTER WEEKEND

We have an overall sense of what this nor'easter will do, but the picky details of how that will affect us in Vermont is still an open question. The storm was just developing off the North Carolina coast this morning and will slowly head north while strengthening. It should be somewhere a little south or east of the New England Saturday. 

After that, it might loop a little westward while starting to weaken. By early next week the nor'easter will e falling apart while heading out to sea.

We're still looking at a lot of coastal erosion and flooding from Virginia to New England.  Also southeastern New England is under a high wind watch for those strong nor'easter winds that were expected.

Unless you like huge, beach chewing storms, stay away from the immediate East Coast over the next few days. 

Vermont Effects

It now looks like the nor'easter will send bands of rain westward into Vermont. But those rain bands will run into dry air and weaken as they do so. 

We still don't know how much rain will make it into the Green Mountain State. It's beginning to look like most, but maybe not all of the state will see at least a little rain, and it might be a soaker for the far southeast. 

Maybe. 

According to the National Weather Service/South Burlington's forecast discussion, the models are all over the place as to how much rain might fall. 

That discussion highlights the differences in expected rainfall in Vermont among the models.  As of this morning, it could be anywhere between nothing and 0.44 inches in Burlington, In Montpelier, nor'easter rainfall could range anywhere between 0.04 and 0.82. In Springfield, the range is between 0.15 and 1.5 inches. 

On top of that, we can expect more shifts in rainfall projects in the days and hours leading up to this weekend. 

Overall, it looks pretty likely that southeast Vermont will have at least a fairly wet weekend, while anything could  happen in the northwestern half of the state. 

Temperatures this weekend, especially Sunday look questionable, too. Daytime readings could hold in the low to mid 50s in areas that have the steadiest rain. If the clouds are thin and rain-free in the northwest, it could be 70 degrees up there. 

It'll get breezy, too. Nor'easters are obviously windy, and even in the outskirts of the storm it can get breezy. So far, it's looking like winds could gust to over 30 mph in the southern and central Green Mountains. The same might be true in the Champlain Valley. The winds will funnel between the Green Mountains and Adirondacks, which speeds the airflow up. 

Luckily, it's early in the foliage season and the fall colors themselves are running a little late this year. That means this storm with its potential wind and rain won't be a "foliage stripper."  The peak colors coming up in October will still be spectacular, whether or not this storm hits Vermont. 

Will This Be The Year Without A Hurricane? Quietest Atlantic Season Since1914. Pacific Buzzing With Hurricanes, Though

Satellite view of Category 5 Hurricane Polo off the
southwest coast of Mexico on Tuesday. While the
Atlantic Ocean is setting records for a lack of hurricanes,
the Pacific Ocean is really busy. The root 
cause of all this is a record strong El Nino

People from Texas to Maine are usually nervous this time of year, as hurricanes are almost always lurking in the Atlantic Ocean this time of year. 

This year, it's practically crickets out there in the Atlantic. That trend is continuing. 

It's the first time since 1914 that there have been no hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean by now. The year 1907 was another occasion in which there'd been no hurricanes by September 22. 

However,  in 1907 and 1914, there might actually have been at least a hurricane or two.  Such a storm might have been way out in the Atlantic Ocean and just totally missed by us humans. There were obviously no satellites to track storms way back then. 

This year, we have had six tropical storms, which have winds between 39 and 73 mph. We almost had our first hurricane Sunday and Monday, but not quite. 

Tropical Storm Fay in the far eastern Atlantic almost got to hurricane status Sunday night and early Monday. Sustained wind reached 70 mph, just 4 mph less than hurricane force. But those El Nino upper level winds blew it apart, and it had weakened to a remnant low by Tuesday. 

El Nino, That's what's preventing the Atlantic hurricanes. El Nino always tends to create strong upper level winds over the Atlantic.  Those winds are kyrptonite to wannabe hurricanes, shearing apart the thunderstorms that are the ingredients for these storms. 

Usually, even in an El Nino year, at least a couple hurricanes sneak into existence somewhere in the Atlantic Ocean, finding relatively calm spots amid those strong upper level winds. 

This year, El Nino is at record strength, and it appears it's helping to cause wall--to-wall hostile winds in the atmosphere. 

The remnants of Fay in the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to briefly restrengthen into a tropical storm, then get blown apart by those winds. Another disturbance just off the west coast of Africa might also develop into a tropical storm before being nuked by those high level winds, too. 

STRONG UPPER WINDS HELP NOR'EASTER?

That's not to say a strong non-tropical storm can't form in the Atlantic.  Regular storms don't wilt when faced with strong high altitude winds. And these storms can gain extra strength from warm waters. A nor'easter is due along or off the coast of the Northeast this weekend. This storm might be pretty strong, with an added boost of energy from those warm offshore waters.

Cold core storms like the expected nor'easter don't fall apart when there's strong wind shear. In fact, wind shear can help intensity them.

Here's why. Hurricanes are warm core. They tend to be symmetrical Their  center is a vertical "chimney" that vents the heat up and out. Strong winds aloft displace the heat above the eye of the storm and tilt the whole structure of the hurricane.  That limits the updrafts that feed the thunderstorms that make up the core of the hurricane. So, with high-speed air up high, a hurricane stands no chance.  

Cold core storms like our pending nor'easter are not symmetric and don't rely on a "chimney" to fuel them. Instead, they gather their energy from a contrast in temperatures across the storm zone. 

Strong upper level winds can actually help a cold-core storm intensify by bending the jet stream in such a way to add a lot of rising air to the system. The rising air creates precipitation and helps streghthen the storm. 

PACIFIC OCEAN

Meanwhile, El Nino helps hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean. And this year, the Pacific is swarming with hurricanes. Hurricane Polo formed last weekend off the coast of southwest Mexico. It exploded from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane within 24 hours, one of the fastest such intensifications on record for a hurricane. 

Hurricane Polo was still a strong hurricane as of today, and should stay just off the western Mexican coast the next few days, throwing rain bands, gusty winds and battering waves at that coast. 

Hurricane Odalys is further off the coast of Mexico, with top winds today at 75 mph. It should eventually weaken as it heads northeastward. 

Meanwhile, Hawaii, already side swept earlier this year by two hurricanes that each caused a lot of damage, is  under the gun again. 

A tropical depression has formed well south of the islands. It's expected to move north toward the islands while it strengthens into a major hurricane. It is forecast to make a hard left turn before reaching the islands,  but it could easily come close enough to cause another huge headache. 

Given the weather pattern, there will almost surely be more hurricanes in the Pacific before the tropical season ends in November. 

Vermont Frost Was Pretty Scattered This Morning; Nice Days Until Potential Weekend Nor'easter; Coast To Be Hit Hard

Plants were covered on my St. Albans deck this morning,
as a I heeded a frost advisory. I actually didn't think it
would get dangerously cold for the plants, and it
only got down to 39 degrees. No harm in being
cautious though. 

  I kind of figured the frost this morning would be pretty light and very scattered, with many places escaping trouble. You can't be too careful , though, with the frost risk for your outdoor plants, so that I think is why there was a frost advisory in much of Vermont.  

Burlington was at 41 degrees at 7 a.m. so no frost there. My covered plants on my St. Albans, Vermont deck were cowering beneath the sheets to escape a not-so-frosty 39 degrees. 

Most places in Vermont at dawn were in the 30s. Morrisville was at 32 degrees at 6 a.m. indicating at least some of us had frosts or even a freeze.

Let's get into what will happen in the next couple of days.  Then look at the impending nor'easter in New England and the Mid-Atlantic states, and what it means for us here in Vermont. Spoiler: There's still a lot of unanswered questions about it. 

TODAY

Another beauty. Highs in the 60s, under lots of sun. Tonight will be cool again, and there might be new frost advisories. But if you didn't see frost this morning there's an excellent chance you won't see any tomorrow morning, either. 

THURSDAY

Nice again! Highs will into the 60s under sunny skies once again.

THE NOR'EASTER

Instead of continuing on with the daily forecast here, we should describe this impending storm. It's going to cause a lot of trouble from the Mid-Atlantic States on through New England, especially along the coastlines. 

We already have coastal flood warnings in Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey starting this afternoon, and the storm hasn't even wound up yet. 

I have seen some social media weather pundits falsely comparing this storm to Superstorm Sandy or the Perfect Storm of 1991.  That's just for clicks and profits. 

But still, this could be a pretty memorable storm, mostly because it will linger off the New England  coast for so long. 

The general idea of what the storm will do is being to take shape. It will start forming about now well off the North Carolina coast, then slowly move northward to somewhere off then coast of New England. Then it will become trapped and spin in that general vicinity for a couple days before gradually weekend and heading out to sea early next week. 

Exactly where it goes will decide how bad the weather gets along the coast. The storm's path will also determine how much of an effect it has on Vermont. Some models have the storm heading backwards for a time, moving toward the west and actually making landfall in New England. Others models keep it offshore. 

Given that, we don't know how rainy, how windy, or how chilly it will get in Vermont and where. 

I imagine clouds will slowly increase later Thursday into Friday as the storm gets a little closer. 

Here are the forecast challenges

Rain:  

Strong high pressure to the north and west will have very dry air with it. So rain moving westward from the storm into Vermont would run into that dry air.  That would mean a sharp cutoff between fairly substantial rain to the south and east and very little to the north and west. Where that line between wet and dry sets up is a complete unknown as of now. 

Wind

The closer the storm comes to us, the windier it will get. This won't be a huge blowdown by any means, but if the storm gets close enough, some gusts could get strong enough to knock down a few trees and power lines. If we do see gusty winds they're most likely in the southern Green Mountains. The channeling effects of mountains on either side other Champlain Valley might make things relatively gusty there, too.

Temperatures

Expect highs in the low 50s to low 70s over the weekend.  That huge range is by no means helpful if you're deciding what to wear if you're out and about Saturday. The problem is that dry air. Where it rains, evaporation cooling could drop temperatures well down into the 50s. If there's just thin clouds, especially north and west, temperatures could to 70 degrees.  

Bottom Line: 

If you have weekend travel plans to Cape Cod and the Islands, Long Island, the Jersey Shore or places like Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, or Ocean City, Maryland, fuhgeddaboudit.  Coastal flooding, severe beach erosion, gusty winds, power outages and inundated coastal roads will not make things pleasant.  Plus, you'll just be in the way if there are any evacuations of coastal homes and buildings. 

If you stay in Vermont really expect anything this weekend. You'll need to be flexible with your plans because with this situation, we might not know if it will be sunny or rainy until almost the last moment. A small shift in the storm track will make a huge difference as to who gets what. 

Unlike at the coast, Vermont will suffer little or no damage from this storm, so that's a plus.  If we get really, really lucky, we could get some badly needed rain. 

We will try to monitor this storm as best we can as the event gets closer.  

Frost Advisories In Vermont Tonight, Including Champlain Valley

Areas in blue are under a frost advisory tonight. The
Northeast Kingdom is not under the advisory because
the growing season has ended up there. But that 
region of the state will also deal with frosts 

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington this afternoon hoisted frost advisories for large swaths of Vermont tonight and very early Wednesday. 

Areas that might find at least a little frost early tomorrow morning are the Champlain Valley excluding the islands and central Vermont and the central Green Mountains. 

The Northeast Kingdom isn't under any advisories because their growing season is considered over. But up there, it'll be probably be at or below freezing in some spots, and near freezing in others.

This morning, I said that the Champlain Valley was probably safe from frost.  However, it became apparent this afternoon that the air is so dry, it will cool off rapidly this evening, which brings the risk into play. 

I still think frost in the Champlain Valley of Vermont will be very hit and miss, especially west of Route 7, which is closer to the lake. Still, anywhere in the frost advisory zone, it's probably a good idea to cover up tender plants or bring them indoors for the night. 

Despite it being slightly warmer tomorrow afternoon, there could be another frost risk tomorrow night, so keep those old sheets handy for the plants. 

Tuesday Vermont Weather: Sunshine Prevails This Week, But What About That Weekend Nor'easter?

This is just one forecast for the position
of the expected nor'easter this weekend. 
It could come closer, giving Vermont
some rain, or it could be further out to
sea, resulting in a sunny weekend. 
At this point a flip of a coin is just
as good as a forecast. 

We endured another cool day Monday with  highs holding in the mid-50s north and central with a few low 60s south. 

The skies remained mostly cloudy, which was expected. Those clouds helped hold down the temperatures. 

It doesn't look like there's any frost around this morning in Vermont, but I noticed Saranac Lake, the perennial cold spot in the Adirondacks, got down to at least 31 degrees, which isn't at all odd for them this time of year. 

Overall, we're looking at sunshine most of the week, with some frosts risks in the cold spots. But a bit of a warming trend should set in during the week, too. We won't go back to summer. Instead, it'll be comfortable fall weather. 

We'll be playing nor'easter roulette this coming weekend. We know a nasty nor'easter will rev up off the East Coast this week, but whether it will affect Vermont all that much is still a very, very open question. Best guesses are still no rain, at least in the north. 

The worry is dry air, and relatively gusty winds from the outer fringes of the nor'easter could worsen the northern Vermont drought and expand it. And those winds could increase the fire risk

As always, let's do the daily forecasts

TODAY: 

A nice one. Much more sunshine than yesterday means highs should reach the low to mid 60s. Clear skies and light winds raise the specter of scattered mostly light frost tonight. A lot of towns will be cutting it close. 

The expected low tonight in Montpelier, Newport and St. Johnsbury is 35. Island Pond should get to at least 32 degrees. Rutland is expecting 38, but valleys in the nearby Green Mountains will probably be colder than that. The Champlain Valley should be frost-free. 

WEDNESDAY

Another beauty. The day will start with that patchy frost and a lot of dense fog in the river valleys, which will burn off. Afternoon temperatures  should reach the mid and upper 60s. 

THURSDAY

Still sunny, with a risk of early morning patchy frost in the cold spots. We'll probably have a lot of patchy fog in the valleys again. It's peak season for that.  We'll feel the first hints of that nor'easter with a bit of an increase in north winds. It won't exactly be windy, but you'll notice a breeze. 

FRIDAY

The uncertainty increases. Maybe the clouds increase, too, in the south, we'll have to wait and see. Depending on the track of the nor'easter, there couple be a few showers and increasing winds and southern Vermont. It all depends on whether this thing wants to hug the coast to go more out to sea. 

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

An iffy weekend. Will the nor'easter come close enough to Vermont to give us some rain? Or will it be a whiff? Or something in between. 

The best guess is we'll have a breezy weekend, maybe downright windy in some spots, especially in the southern Green Mountains. Maybe some rain in southern Vermont, with a lesser chance north. 

This is such a tentative forecast. Don't yell at me if this is totally wrong. Computer models range from a complete miss with bright sunshine in Vermont to a miserably wet, windy weekend.  

We associate nor'easters with very cold air. Usually, even when a nor'easter misses Vermont, it pulls down some horrible frigid air from Canada. 

That won't be the case this time. That big, fat high pressure system anchored in Quebec is sitting there, slowly warming up in the September sun. That's why forecasters are telling us of a slow, if slight warming trend this week. 

The soon-to-be warm-ish Quebec high is huge, and is keeping any real early season cold stuck way up near the Arctic circle. That means the nor'easter doesn't have a chance at tapping into really cold air. If the sun is out this weekend, it'll be near 70. If it's rainy, it'll be near 60, or even in the 60s. 

Storms thrive on a cold/warm air clash. The reason why this one will develop is the Quebec high will have seasonable air to the west of storm. To the east is hot tropical air over ocean waters that are warmer than normal. That set up will help the storm develop nicely. 

Whether that matters to us in Vermont is unknown. 

 

Nepal Tragedy Likely Brought On By Climate Change, Scientists Say

This is Trishul Bazaar, Nepal, before and after the 
immense water and debris flow on August 26
World Weather Attribution says that climate
change was a very likely culprit in this calamity

 Climate change was a core contributing factor in last month's horrific glacial mountain collapse and mega-flash flood and debris flow that killed thousands of people in Nepal last month. 

The death toll made this disaster was especially horrific. In Nepal, 1,403 bodies had been recovered as of last week. The number of missing people has been revised upward to 6,150.  In neighboring Tibet, 43 are known dead and 519 are missing. 

Several factors went into the disaster, but climate change got the ball rolling,  according to  a report from World Weather Attribution, a group of scientists who study how individual disasters are influenced and often made worse by climate change

"Relentless warming has lifted the altitude of the freezing threshold on the high Himalayas, exposing ic and permafrost deep in the bedrock to higher and longer thaw temperatures, weakening mountain slopes," according to the report.

World Weather Attribution formed a team of researchers from ten countries. They were experts in glaciology, mountain hydrology, climate science, humanitarian aid, seismology and social science to study how this calamity unfolded and what caused it. 

The disaster started when a large rock wall collapsed on the Langtang Lirung Mountain, elevation 23,734 feet. The rock slide also caused part of an overlying glacier to collapse. The rock-ice avalanche quick turned into an incredible debris and water flood that traveled downstream at speeds of up to 117 mph. 

The calamity happened on August 26, but may have had its roots in 2015. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake that year might have further weakened the slope, but the precise role of that earthquake remains uncertain, says WWA. 

 Then there's climate change

"Warming and permafrost degradation likely weakened the source rock wall by increasing bedrock temperatures and thawing ice within fractures. Loss of ice bonding reduces fracture strength, while meltwater can increase water pressure and further destabilize pre-existing geological weaknesses. Thus, permafrost degradation may have acted aa an additional climate-related factors pre-conditioning the slope for failure." 

On top of that, glaciers in the region have been losing mass for decades under the onslaught of climate change. Since 2010, the rate loss of the Lantang-Lirung glacier has accelerated. Thinning glaciers can change stresses on adjacent rock walls, which in turn can increase slope instability. Combined with more meltwater than in earlier decades. It's possible this could  have worsened the event. 

All this is because it's above freezing at higher and higher elevations in the Himalayas more frequently due to climate change.  

It didn't help that the area where this disaster started, and the river valley it pummeled, had their warmest July and August on record. This came after unusually heavy snowfall in late 2025 which contributed extra meltwater before the collapse. 

 WWA wouldn't go so far as to say that this disaster couldn't have happened in the days before climate change really started to alter the world. It would require a lot more study to absolutely prove the connection. "Rapidly rising temperatures at a rate beyond the global mean as a result of fossil fuel emissions increase the likelihood and severity such hazards in the Himalayas, WWA concluded.

In other words, this could happen again.  

With this in mind, Nepal is planning to use the World Weather Attribution study to request $20 million from the United Nations. It's from the UN Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, which helps countries affected by climate change. 

If the funding goes through, it will be a drop in the bucket compared to what Nepal needs. It's estimated that Nepal will need about $5 billion to recover from this tragedy. 

They've always warned us climate change would be expensive, and there you go. 

 

 

 

 

Dry, Cool Week Ahead In Vermont After Sunday's Gloomy, Lighter Than Expected Rain

Not many signs of fall colors in the trees around my
house as of this morning, but pops of color are 
showing around the state. Fall foliage should 
become much more pronounced this week
as weather is expected to remain cool

We got through our gloomy, chilly Vermont Sunday, only the rainfall was even less than the somewhat pessimistic forecasts ahead of time. 

Burlington received just 0.14 inches of rain. Rutland was even worse with 0.22 inches. St. Johnsbury, Montpelier and Springfield each had a little under a quarter inch. All this was less than the 0.25 to 0.5 inches we were expecting across most of Vermont. 

Too bad, If we had to ensure a cold, rainy Sunday, I kind of wish it was worth it. I would have liked to see a torrential, soaking rain. But no dice.

This bodes badly for the rest of the week in terms of the dry conditions and the developing drought in northeastern Vermont. Current projections have no rain in much of Vermont through at least Sunday. There could be a little late week rain in southeastern Vermont from a developing offshore nor'easter toward Friday or Saturday. 

Our only hope of substantial rain would be if that nor'easter unexpectedly moves much further toward the northwest than many current forecast suggests. A few models bring some fairly substantial rain to southeast Vermont and even some rain to the north, but it's really iffy. 

The week will be cool, with patchy frost around during the early mornings tomorrow through at least Wednesday. Not everyone will see frost, but you'll want to pay attention to forecasts all week, especially if you live well away from the Champlain Valley. 

Some areas of the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks on New York haven't really had a garden-season ending frost or freeze yet.  Note that people in these areas won't receive any frost or freeze advisories if it does get the cold. We're past the average date of the first autumn freeze of the season in the NEK and Adirondacks, so frost advisories are over for the season in those areas.

Elsewhere in the North Country you might see such alerts as we go through the week.

Let's get into the details:

TODAY:

Although I was seeing some partial clearing here in St. Albans early this morning, I suspect much of the day will be mostly cloudy. Maybe partly sunny in southeast Vermont.   The air will tend to dry out a little more as we get into the late afternoon so there might be a little more sun then.

It'll be another very cool one, but not quite as bad as Sunday. Highs should be in the 55 to 65 degree range. As skies clear tonight, that will set us up for a risk of frost away from Lake Champlain.  Any frost will be patchy, so many areas across Vermont will manage to stay frost free. We should also see the usual widespread valley fog early tomorrow. 

TUESDAY

The morning fog will burn off to reveal a bright, sunny cool fall day as enormous high pressure sets up  in Quebec. It'll still be cool, as we've been talking about, but a little better than today. Highs generally in the 60 to 68 degree range. Despite the slightly warmer afternoon, there's another shot at patchy frost Tuesday night away from the Champlain Valley. 

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

Same old, same old. Patchy frost in a few areas in the morning. Also, some fairly widespread valley fog again. We should get up into the 60s again.  Upper 60s in the warmer valleys

FRIDAY

That offshore nor'easter might or might not start to affect us. There could be some increasing clouds, especially south. Winds from the north and northeast could get a little breezier too, especially in the high elevations of southern Vermont. Early guesses put afternoon high temperatures back in the 60s. 

SATURDAY

What will our nor'easter do? It looks like southeastern New England could be in for a long period of strong winds, battering waves, along with coastal flooding and erosion. It will probably not be the weekend to head the Cape.

Here in Vermont, as noted, we don't know what's going to happen yet. I'm leaning toward a dry northwest and a cloudy, potentially somewhat rain southeast.  Winds in the southern Vermont mountains could get pretty gusty, too. I might change my mind on this later in the week, though. So stay tuned to this bat channel for updates.