Clear Weather Continues In Vermont, But We've Also Flipped To Cooler Air

Another crystal clear late autumn day yesterday in
St. Albans, Vermont. More of the same is coming
up over the next few days, but it will become 
a little cooler late week. 

 Monday and Tuesday were a great example of how two consecutive days can look exactly the same if you look out the window, but feel different if you walk outdoors. 

Monday here in Vermont was clear, balmy and calm, with highs in the 60s. Skies on Tuesday were crystal clear, too. 

But the air was cooler and there was a stiff northerly breeze. It was still a gorgeous day, but the air had a slight bite to it, especially if you were in the shade and exposed to those north winds.

The joys of autumn

This long stretch of sunny weather will continue, but it will get even cooler for the next few days. Big fat high pressure systems with dry weather and sunshine now look like they could continue over northern New England until Halloween. 

As always, let's get into the details

TODAY

Given the fact that Tuesday was cooler, it make sense that this morning was chillier than the night before, too. Most places in Vermont started the day in the mid and upper 20s.  Even the Champlain Valley was solidly on the frosty side. Burlington reported a low temperature this morning of 30. 

Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was at 18, ,which is the nippiest temperature we've seen around the region so far this autumn. 

We'll end up with highs this afternoon in the 50s, very similar to yesterday. The winds should be a little lighter than yesterday, so there might not be as much of a wind chill. 

Skies should once again be pretty much crystal clear or close to it. 

THURSDAY

We've been expecting a reinforcing shot of cooler air to come in, and that's still on the table. We'll start the day similar to this morning, with frost and freezes in most places. During the later morning and afternoon, north winds will pick up and temperatures will hold in the low the mid 50s. 

Though there will be a fair amount of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys, some clouds will come through, too. That's 'because the new shot of cool air will be led by a very weak cold front that will herald its arrival.

Since it's been so dry, and there's so many dried out fallen leaves on the ground now, we'll have to worry a little about brush and forest fires, since the wind would help push around anything that starts. So be careful out there!

FRIDAY

The coolest day of the week. You'll notice it! Another big, fat, high pressure system will slowly sink southward from Quebec. It'll be another chapped lip day, with very low humidity and lots of bright sunshine. North breezes will continue but will tend to diminish in the afternoon. 

Highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50. Call it mid-40s way up in the Northeast Kingdom and northern Vermont hill towns to mid-50s in the lower Connecticut River Valley

SATURDAY

We'll start with probably the coldest morning of the year so far. Pretry much all of us will be in the 20s, with some teens possibly showing up in the coldest mountain valleys. The day will be clear once again with light winds and temperatures in the low to mid 50s,  Maybe some upper 50s in the warmest souther valleys

All this is courtesy of the big, fat high pressure system which will probably be right on top of us. 

SUNDAY

We do it again. Cold morning, milder afternoon under lots of sunshine. It'll be a little warmer than previous days with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

NEXT WEEK

Still kind of more of the same. Much like this week, Monday will be the mildest day of the week with temperatures up near 60 under sunny skies. A very weak cold front will introduce yet another big, fat, cool, dry, sunny high pressure system. 

The cold front on Tuesday might through a few clouds at us, with perhaps a sprinkle or mountain snow flurry, but that's really iffy. The sunny, dry weather will continue for a couple days. Now we're in the long range, so it gets uncertain. It's possible another cold front would come through late in the week with slightly more noticeable showers, but that remains to be seen. 

 The pattern still looks mostly dry at least until we get into the first few days of November. 

Monday Weather Over-Performed In Vermont Gorgeousness. Rest Of Week Provides Sun And A Cool Down

Autumn leaves on the trees glowed in the late afternoon 
sun in my St. Albans, Vermont yard yesterday. The
sunshine will continue all week, but grab the fleece
and sweaters. It will turn a little cooler. 

 Usually when I say the weather "over-performed" in Vermont, it means the storm was worse than expected. 

Yesterday was quite the opposite. The weather was definitely an over-performer, but decidedly on the gorgeous side. 

It was blue skies and wall-to-wall sunshine, as expected. But that sun had a little more oomph to it than forecast. It got warm. Burlington reached 67 degrees, compared to the forecast high of 63.

Montpelier also reached 67 degrees. St. Johnsbury and Bennington were close at 66 degrees. Rutland was even warmer at 69. You get the picture. Monday was an absolutely delight. 

The "heat wave" is now over, and a week-long cooling trend has started. But as long as you grab a sweater or some fleece, the rest of the week will be fantastic to view any lingering foliage under the sunshine, or to get going on autumn yard cleanup. As alway's we'll get into the details next.

TODAY

With such dry air in place, it was inevitable this morning would be chilly. (Dry air does not hold the heat at night nearly as much as humid air). Most of us started the day in the low to mid 30s with some upper 20s in the cold spots. Highs under the sunshine today will be in the mid and upper 50s, with a few low 60s in a couple spots in the Champlain Valley and valleys in southern parts of the state.

We'll have a slight breeze from the north today, which is a switch from the southerly breezes we saw yesterday. 

WEDNESDAY

Pretty much a carbon copy of today. A chilly, frosty morning yielding to high in the 55 to 62 degree range under the afternoon sunshine. 

THURSDAY

This is when that stalled storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast starts to make its move northeastward, further out to sea. That motion will help pull down a reinforcing push of cooler air. The north breezes will he a little stronger than then were earlier in the week. 

The reinforcement of the cool air might help create a vague cold front, which could produce a few clouds and maybe even a sprinkle in a couple spots. But there will be sunshine, too. Highs will reach the 50s again. 

FRIDAY

The computer models that had earlier suggested a very cold day have relaxed. But it will be the chilliest day of the week nonetheless. Big, fat high pressure will be just to our north and west, dominating the vast province of Quebec and eastern Ontario. We'll have cool northerly breezes. 

Under sunny skies, highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50. 

By Friday, we'll have to start worrying about brush fire risks. The air will have been incredibly dry all week. Those fallen leaves will have dried out, too.  This will not be the week to burn away that brush pile sitting in the back 40.

SATURDAY

We'll start off really cold. There's a decent chance it'll be the coldest morning so far this autumn, with lows right down there in the 20s. Maybe a few low 30s right by Lake Champlain. At this point, it's too late to worry about saving gardens anyway. If you're still covering up your plants, good for you, but the effort has probably gotten Sisyphean. 

The day will be another sunny, cool one. This is a little long range so subject to change. At this point, though, it looks like highs should be in the 50s, with maybe some upper 40s in some northern Vermont hill towns. 

SUNDAY

Sunny and a little warmer. Highs in the 50s to around 60s. The brush and woodland fire risk will continue through the weekend. Thankfully, winds will be on the light side, which means fires might not spread too rapidly. Still, this weekend will definitely not be the one to play with matches, or be careless with your campfire or cigarettes. 

NEXT WEEK

The stalled weather pattern with the big, fat high pressure systems sitting over or near us should finally start to break down. Our next chance of any precipitation is probably later Tuesday. It's hard to say how much we'll get, but at this point, the rainfall next Tuesday night or Wednesday or thereabouts looks pretty lame. 

NOAA Winter Outlook Gives Vermont, Rest of Northern U.S. A Warm Winter, But Take It With A Grain Of Salt

NOAA's winter forecast has warmer than normal air,
in general across the northern U.S, and a tossup
across the South. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook last week, and it was designed by El Nino.  

In general, El Ninos tend toe provide the northern tier of states with mild winters, while the South is stormy. That's not always the way it works out, it's just a tendency. 

Right now, we have a record breaking super El Nino underway, so NOAA is going with the traditional El Nino game plan for the winter.

NOAA has the best chances of warmer than average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes and northern and central New England 

The chances of milder than average temperatures are less certain in the central United States, though NOAA is leaning that way. NOAA is also predicting near average temperatures for Florida and the far Southeast. And it's a coin toss between above and below average temperatures in the Southwest. 

NOAA's winter precipitation forecast has wetter than
normal conditions across the South and maybe the East
and dry spots in the northern Rockies and Great Lakes 

Also staying true to El Nino's blueprint, NOAA calls for a wetter than average winter over the south. Especially in southern and central California and the Southeast. The northern Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes lean drier than normal.

The East Coast is a bit of a wildcard, but NOAA is leaning wet there, too. Some of those southern storms take a turn north along the coast. It's unclear if this means a bunch of rain and mixed precipitation or snow. But if the temperature forecast is right, snowstorms won't linger long on the ground like last winter. 

If the NOAA forecast is right. 

Long range forecasts are notorious. tricky, and are at least sometimes inaccurate. RalphWeatherOBS on Twitter brought receipts. 

For instance, last winter, NOAA forecast the northern Rockies to be on the cold side and southern Rockies. The entire West turned out to be very warm last year, so in that region of the nation. NOAA was half right. 

For 2024-25, NOAA predicted the East Coast would have a warm winter. Instead it was near to slightly cooler than average. 

OLD FARMER'S ALMANAC

For what it's worth, the winter prediction map for the Old' Farmer's Almanac is confusing. They have northern and southeast New England as "mild, dry," while central and parts of western New England are "cold, snowy."  For one small region of the nation, you really can't have both, so I don't know what gives. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac breaks it down this way with a little more detail for the Northeast: 

Temperatures would be above  normal in the north, below normal south. The coldest period would be in early to mid January. Precipitation is expected to be below normal, though snowfall might be above normal south.  

THE FARMER'S ALMANAC

There's another almanac that's been around forever, The Farmer's Almanac that also does winter forecasts. 

This almanac seems to have El Nino in mind, too. They predict a number of coastal storms going up the Eastern Seaboard, much like the supposed "typical" El Nino winter.

Since it will be a generally mild winter, again, presumably due to E Nino, this pattern involves a lot of mixed precipitation and wet snow, according to this Almanac. 

Of course, Almanacs are just fun. They don't accurately predict the weather, no matter what they say.

El Nino is also no guarantee, as we mentioned above. The only thing I'm certain about this coming winter is that there will be surprises. 

 

Long Stretch Of Sunny Vermont Weather Continues, With Subtle Day To Day Changes

People strolling on a nice autumn day yesterday in 
Georgia, Vermont. Mostly sunny weather will 
continue all week, but there will be some 
subtle day to day changes. 

 Sunday surely cleaned up nice. 

Temperatures soared well into the 50s and winds were on the light side, making for a delightful day. 

As previously advertised, this begins a stretch of mostly sunny weather that could last at least until next Monday. With a few little hiccups thrown in. Those hiccups won't make much of a different, though. 

The overall pattern continues the same: Strong high pressure centered near northern New England and  Quebec, with strong low pressure spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast. That low pressure won't have a  direct effect on us, but might influence temperatures a bit. 

Also, the shape the big high pressure system will shift over time, influencing our temperatures. Eventually, a reinforcement of that giant bubble of high pressure will also lower our temperatures a bit. Eventually. 

Here are the dailies

TODAY

The start of the workweek will be the warmest part of this sunny spell. As is typical with clear skies this time of  year, the day started cold again - 20s in much of Vermont, 30s in the Champlain Valley. 

The high today is stretched out between that storm off the coast, and another one up by Hudson Bay. That will set up a southwest winf flow. Highs should get to near 60 in many spots, low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

TUESDAY

The high pressure will start to rebuild and strengthen over the Great Lakes as the storm near Hudson Bay takes off toward the Arctic. This will begin to set up a north wind that will gradually lower temperatures. This new arrangement looks like it could create a cold front of sorts that might spread some clouds around Vermont in the morning, but it should turn sunny. Highs should he well up into the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY

The center of the strong high pressure will have moved to southern Quebec by Wednesday. The cool north flow will continue but barely. The proximity of the high will mean light winds. It also means a cold, frosty start to the day, with lows in the 25 to 32 degree range for most of us. Highs should reach the 50s again. 

THURSDAY

The storm off the East Coast looks like it wants to contribute to a dip in the jet stream forming in far eastern Canada. That will eventually help tug a reinforcing high pressure system into Quebec.  All this might spread a couple clouds our way and hold temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

FRIDAY

The models are still disagreeing on how cold it will get with that trough in eastern Canada and the cold high pressure system coming in behind it. The most pessimistic computer models would hold daytime temperatures in the mid 30s a mid 40s and we'd deal with a stiff north with along with some clouds and sprinkles and flurries. 

Other models keep us partly sunny with highs in the 45 to 52 degree range. We'll wait and see how this resolves. But the chances of measurable precipitation are really low no matter which model you look at. 

SATURDAY

As it looks now, strong high pressure will be centered right overhead in Vermont, or close to it. If that happens, look for another cold, frosty morning, followed by another sunny day with highs at least in the low to mid 50s/

SUNDAY

The high might slip just to our south, turning the very light winds to a southwesterly direction. If that happens, we could pop up into the low 60s again under sunny 

BEYOND SUNDAY

It's hard to say how and when these persistent weather patterns break down, but we could start to see that early next week.  For now, the next chance of any rain would be around Wednesday, October 28

Parts of Southern California Burning Again, Hot Dry Winds Fuel Blazes

Homes burn in San Juan Capistrano 
during southern California wildfires
that broke out on Friday

 Some of you might be surprised to hear of wildfires in southern California. Didn't it just rain there?

Well yes, it did, sort of. But the heaviest rain was well south of Los Angeles.  The city itself received just 0.06 on October 12. Most places north of L.A. didn't receive any rain at all..

So when the hot, dry Santa Any winds started blasting through the mountains and canyons of southern California Friday, so did the fires.

As ABC7 In Los Angeles reported on Saturday: 

"Firefighters are battling blazes in San Clemente, Malibu and Azusa. While forward progress has stopped with the Peak Fire in Azusa, the Norte Fire in Orange County and the Bryson Fire in Malibu have forced evacuations."

The Norte fire destroyed six homes in San Juan Capistrano and forced evacuations there and in nearby San Clemente. Two firefighters were injured. 

The area was ripe for fires. The thick underbrush around the area hadn't burned since 1950. 

Though hot, dry, windy weather continued on Saturday, this will thankfully be a relatively short-lived bout with those kinds of conditions. 

The weather will be calmer and somewhat more humid starting today.  Showers are forecast in central and southern California Wednesday and Thursday, including in areas that received no rainfall last week.

Let's hope that's the start of an El Nino rainy season, one that could prematurely and thankfully squelche southern California's autumn fire season.  

 

Sunday Morning: A Cold Start, But Remarkably Steady, Calm Weather This Week. Maybe Beyond, Too?

Henry the weather dog on Saturday
found an area of relatively warm sunshine
and a sort of camouflage amid fallen
leaves a pine needles at his St. 
Albans home Saturday afternoon. 

And that's a wrap. 

Already. our brief cold snap was fading away as of dawn today. Especially in western Vermont, the coldest readings were at around 2 in the morning, rather than dawn, which is customary for a cold night. 

The core of the cold air had already departed and temperature began to rise in the early morning hours. Overnight lows were pretty uniform, in the low to mid 20s. 

The Champlain Valley was a tad warmer, with upper 20s a little after midnight before getting above freezing as the first light in the eastern sky began to emerge. 

In terms of snow, several towns, mostly in the Northeast Kingdom reported a trace of snow. Video from Stratton Mountain in southern Vermont showed a solid dusting of wet snow near the summit. As the sun came out during the day the summits shown white under the cold skies. 

Yesterday looked warmer than it was. Bright sunshine developed, especially away from the mountains. But a stiff northwest wind and temperatures holding in the low and mid 40s had a whiff of winter to it, though it was nothing compared to what is eventually coming. 

COMING UP

As previously advertised, we're in for a long spell of tranquil, mainly sunny and seasonable weather for this time of year. 

Such unwavering weather is rare in Vermont (If you don't like the weather in Vermont.....)  It's especially rare in the second half of October, when the weather pattern normally gets more active, with stronger storms and more aggressive pushes of warm and cold air as we rapidly descend toward winter. 

A stalled storm or subtropical storm will spin well off the Mid-Atlantic coast through at least Thursday. To the north, where we live, a corresponding high pressure system will stall just to our north, providing generally sunny weather. 

There might be a minor readjustment to this regime late week, when that storm will finally slip away into the Atlantic. Up here, a cold front will replace our high pressure system with an almost identical one which might then hang out for a few more days. 

The only major change in our weather - and it's uncertain - is that the new high pressure will temporarily cool us off more. 

The details

Today:   

Some cloudiness along and north or Route 2 will yield to sunshine. The rest of the state will enjoy war to wall sunshine. Highs in the mid 50s, so pretty nice

Monday-Thursday. 

Generally sunny. Highs in the 50s, with low 60s in the warmer valleys. Lows in 30s to low 40s. Some clouds might arrive Thursday, we're unsure of that yet. 

Friday-Saturday

The American computer  model really chills us off to readings not that far off from yesterday, which would mean highs in the 40s, with upper 30s Northeast Kingdom. The American model usually overemphasizes cold air in the long term, so I don't think it will be that bad. An early guess would put highs within a few degrees either side of 50s and lows within a few degrees either side of 30. 

I think the next chance of noticeable rain won't come until October 25 and the earliest and possibly as late as October 30.  

Winds Roared In Vermont Friday; Wintry-ish Cold Today; Super Calm Week Coming Up

A brief break of sun over Colchester, Vermont Friday
afternoon before showers arrived with those dark
clouds. The cold front brought much 
colder air to Vermont for today.

 Wow, in some parts of Vermont Friday, the wind really did howl. I see a report of 60 mph from Colchester Reef and several reports of gusts in the 45 to 50 mph range. 

Power outages in Vermont briefly spiked to near 3,000 at one point Friday. 

It was still windy out there this morning, and that state of affairs will continue all day as our brief winter spell has settled in. 

Rainfall was pretty variable across the state as much of it was pretty showery, giving the rainfall pattern a sort of hit and miss quality. Burlington and Rutland had about a third of an inch. Montpelier had 0.6 inches. St. Johnsbury was closer to a half inch. 

The overnight race between incoming dry air and incoming cold air was mostly won by the dry air. The cold air was a little bit slower to arrive than expected. So, snow accumulation is limited in Vermont, mostly just relegated to the really  high elevations.

My go-to check for snow at relatively high elevations is traffic cameras along Route 242 in Westfield and Route 105 in Jay. Neither camera showed any snow on the ground this morning. I'm sure the mountain peaks got a dusting, though. 

Some lower elevations likely saw snowflakes. I noticed Montpelier reported light rain with temperatures in the mid-30s for awhile early this morning. I'm sure that was snow a little higher up on surrounding hills

TODAY

The rest of the day will be partly cloudy, windy and cold. As of 8 a.m. temperatures statewide were within a few degrees either side of 40, and those reading will only go up  few degrees by this afternoon. 

Those wind gusts to 30 mph will make it feel much colder than that. And, to put the final nail in the coffin for Vermont gardens this year, temperatures statewide still look like they'll be in the 20s by dawn tomorrow.

SUNDAY

We transition to warmer weather, at least by afternoon. As we hit mid-afternoon, we should be up in the low to mid 50s, just a tiny bit cooler than average.

MONDAY-SATURDAY

The challenge for me all week will be coming up with things to write about regarding Vermont weather. A stalled pattern means high pressure will remain stuck over northern New England and Quebec, giving us a long stretch of dry, seasonable weather. 

Highs every day will be in the 50s to near 60. Lows will be in the 30s. There probably will be some fog in the river valleys during the mornings.  We might have to watch for some temperature inversions that could keep the low clouds and fog  going much of the day on some days, but so far, the chance of that appear pretty low. 

The only chance of rain appears to be maybe some sprinkles Thursday as a very lame cold front helps reinforce the high pressure nearby. 

Despite the rain we've just had, there might be an elevated fire risk later in the week as all those fallen leaves turn crispy in the dry air.