Himalayan Cataclysmic Flood Has Nepal and Tibet Reeling: Will Climate Change Make This Type Of Disaster More Common?

The tragic aftermath of the epic Nepal flood last week.
We're not 100 percent sure yet whether climate change
was a contributing factor to this calamity. However
scientists say a warming world increases the odds
something like this will happen again in Nepal,
or anywhere else with tall mountains and glaciers.

 You've probably seen those horrific images by now of that impossibly enormous flash flood that blasted down a Nepalese river valley this week. 

The news on the aftermath keeps getting more and more tragic and horrifying. 

As of early Sunday, the death toll from the wild flood stood at 794, according to the BBC. Another 2,502 people are missing. 

The flood occurred on the Nepal-Tibet border, but many foreigners were in the disaster zone. India reports 320 missing people. China has nearly 100 nationals missing. Ninety people from the United States are also missing. So are dozens of people from Ukraine, Malaysia, Australia, the UK and other countries. 

There were some bright spots of survival. A school headmaster made a snap decision to evacuate 900 students in the building after hearing reports something was wrong upstream. He also got word to another 800 students who were on the way to school to stay uphill and away from the school.

All the students ran up a hill and survived. The headmaster said that had he waited another 10 minutes, himself and all the students would have died. He could have made another decision. The school was a fair distance above the river and normally would not have been threatened by floods. This time was different. 

The Nepalese calamity was shocking, beyond tragic, and scary as hell. And something like this could happen again as climate change warms the planet and thaws ice and permafrost on tall mountains around the world. 

WHAT HAPPENED

We don't yet know whether climate change had a hand in causing the tragedy in Nepal. It could have been a freak occurrence. More research on the disaster needs to be completed before we can draw firm conclusions. A full understanding of what happened will take months. 

Here's what we at least think we know so far: 

 As the Washington Post reported:

"High-resolution images taken by satellite monitoring company Planet Labs show the site of the apparent landslide high in the Himalayas, close to the Nepal-China border." (Editor's note: China claims Tibet, but Tibetan exiles dispute that. The China in that quote is actually Tibet). ....."In the 'before' image a glacier can be seen looming some 4,000 feet above a narrow valley, emptying into the meandering Lhende River.

Afterward, the glacier appears smaller by about 2 million square feet - equal to the area of about 25 professional soccer fields. The valley is strewn with ice and mud. And the river is swollen beyond its banks, submerging the surrounding vegetation beneath murky brown floodwater."

When the glacier and rocks collapsed into the valley, seismographs detected it. At first geologist thought there had been an earthquake measuring 5.2 on he Richter scale, but the vibrations detected were the actual glacial collapse, not an earthquake.

Friction of the rocks and avalanche debris as it fell 1200 meters (nearly 4,000 feet) melted some of the ice. By the time the whole thing reached the valley it was a slurry, like wet cement. The New York Times was able to obtain and verify a video of huge chunks of ice falling from the Langtang Lirung mountain and crashing to the valley floor below. 

The debris briefly blocked the river on the valley floor and water piled up behind all those rocks and ice. But this wasn't a classic glacial lake outburst. 

Those outbursts are caused by meltwater trapped behind glacial ice. It finally breaks through, and a rush of water flows downstream. 

This was much worse. Water behind that enormous pile of unstable debris finally collapsed it, and the huge volume of slurry raced downstream. As it roared downstream, the mass of water and debris absorbed more trees, rocks and other debris, making the onrushing tidal wave larger and more powerful.

Nobody in the valley below knew what was about to hit them. It hadn't rained much in the days prior to the huge flood. It was rather sunny and nice that day. For many, the first warning was the roar of the onrushing debris, mud and water. It was too late to escape. 

CLIMATE CHANGE?

As I mentioned above, we don't yet know if climate change had anything to do with the calamity in Nepal. 

However, those rising temperatures across the globe thaws permafrost in high cold mountains.  That permafrost is sometimes the "glue" that holds rock and ice together atop steep mountain slopes. Melt the permafrost and everything falls apart. 

Scientists are saying that fact makes disasters like this one more likely in the coming years. Not only in Himalayan mountains, but any high mountain range in the world with glaciers clinging to their upper slopes. 

As the Washington Post notes, we have seen several glacial collapse disasters in recent years, either through the actual collapse or the floods they often cause. Glacial collapses buried a village in Switzerland in May, 2025. 

Another smaller glacial collapse killed 11 hikers in Italy back in 2022. Another glacial collapse triggered floods in 2021 that swept away at least 200 people in India. 

Investigators want more information on exactly what happened in that Himalayan mountain valley. And in the rocks and glacier above. 

The fear is this type of thing will happen more frequently. "Glaciers are going to shrink and melt. Permafrost....will be warming and weakening and degrading over time. You'll get landslides and debris flows.....You take all that together and you can say climate change is going to have a destabilizing effect on these high mountain regions," said Simon Cook, a University of Dundee glaciologist, who is part of a team reviewing satellite images that show where the disaster began. 

The planet's tectonics might have worked in concert with climate change to cause the calamity. 

The glacier involved in the disaster is way up high on a Himalayan mountain called Langtang Lirung,  with an elevation of 23,734 feet. At least right now. 

Langtang Lirung, like the rest of the Himalayas are slowly rising due to the collision of tectonic plates dating back tens of millions of years. The Himalayan mountains continue to grow in elevation at roughly the rate of 0.3 inches per year.  Over millennia, that's thousands of feet. 

Glaciers have been on these mountains for millennia, too. As the mountains grow taller, they ever so slowly get steeper. Over thousands of years, the steep slopes become too much for the glaciers, and pieces of them break off.

Now, with the permafrost melting, making the rocks and the ice become more and more unglued, the chances of those steep slope glacier collapses happening prematurely have increased exponentially.  

Early warning systems in the region where this disaster happened weren't great. Let's hope governments upgrade these systems in Nepal, and near other risky mountains, including some in the United States. 

Videos:

The giant, sudden flood overwhelms and destroys a hydroelectric dam that was under construction. Click on this link to view,  or if you see the image below, click on that. 

This one has been all over social media, but it's still incredible dramatic and scary. A family is trapped on the upper floors of a house amid the raging torrent of the Nepal flood. Somehow the house remained standing and the family survived. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

This is a good video with several clips that give you an idea of the breadth and power of the extreme Nepal deluge. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that. 

 One video, taken from one location, shows how quickly the disaster escalated and how fast it engulfed surprisingly large areas, including some that at first you would have thought were safely above flood level.  Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that:

If Things Work Out, We Could Actually Have A Rather Rainy Week In Vermont. We need It.

Somewhat ominous skies greeted early risers over St.
Albans, Vermont this morning. If forecasts are correct.
we could have a week of badly needed off and on
rain over the next several days. 

We got through another gorgeous Saturday in Vermont, with our blue skies and a few puffy clouds in the skies. I savored the gorgeous end of August weather. 

The signs of autumn keep hitting though. This time of year, some of the leaves on the trees are looking tired and ragged after a long summer of insects, wind, dry spells and hot days. 

Also, with a high temperature of 77 degrees and a low of 50, the average temperature in Burlington Saturday was 63.5 making it coolest day since June 7.

As nice as Saturday was, we could use the rain and the National Weather Service is offering hope for a potentially wet week across Vermont. 

The NWS office in South Burlington has at least a chance of showers each day today through next Saturday, except maybe tomorrow.

 It's unclear how much rain we'll actually get. We could use a lot of rain, and we might get that. Then again, at least parts of Vermont might not get all that much. It all depends on the path of several weather disturbances this week zipping northwest to southeast across New England and the Mid-Atlantic states.

Current forecasts give a half inch to an inch of rain today through Wednesday morning across most of the Green Mountain State, with more coming after that. NOAA has Vermont receiving one to two inches of rain over the next seven days. 

Those predictions often shift dramatically, so we can't guarantee we'll actually get that much rain. 

If this forecast plays out, it could blunt a developing drought in  northern Vermont and give a much needed rain in southern Vermont, which is still drought-free, for now. 

Let's get into the detailed forecast like we do almost every day. 

TODAY

A  few showers have already skittered across northern Vermont this morning and more is on the way. I don't think today will be as decent a day as first thought especially in northern Vermont. There's a chance of showers almost everywhere in Vermont. Showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder are more likely in northern Vermont. 

The forecast for today has become a little more dismal because moisture in the atmosphere all the way from the Pacific Ocean has made it to an area just south of an approaching cold front in Quebec.  Highs today will reach the 70s.

Not everybody in the north will get wet, but many areas will. The showers will taper off after sunset as the cold front slips quietly south through Vermont. 

MONDAY

The front should sag south and west of Vermont and oriented in a northwest to southeast orientation. The front should still be far enough south and west so that we should be out of the rain. The sun should come out, especially in central and northern Vermont. We should see highs in the 70s again. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

The front to out south and west will mark the battle line between coolish air in Quebec and horribly humid and very warm air in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. The cool-ish air should win out here in Vermont, though it won't exactly be cold. Daily highs should be in the 70s, close to normal for this time of year.

The front will slowly approach Vermont. Nobody is really sure how fast it will come at us. Meanwhile, disturbances will ride northwest to southeast along the front, carrying batches of rain on the north side of the front, and thunderstorms to the south. 

The position of the front will dictate where and when it rains in Vermont and how much. It's too soon to pick out exactly how this will play out. However, so far at least, it looks like the front will stay near or southwest of Vermont. 

That means potential severe thunderstorms should stay mostly in the Ohio Valley and in the Mid-Atlantic states.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

Another front from the west should begin to sweep everything to the east. As it does so, we'll probably keep up with the rain and showers. 

I'm not sure how fast this thing will clear Vermont, so showers could continue Friday and maybe into Saturday. 

Two Tornadoes Confirmed Near Saratoga Springs, New York

Aerial view of tornado damage from a tornado that
struck Thursday in Wilton, New York. Wilton is
 between Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls, NY

 I figured I'd update on that tornado I talked about in yesterday morning's post. 

It turns out two tornadoes hit in and around Wilton, a community between Saratoga and Glens Falls, New York, less than 30 mies from the Vermont border. 

The main tornado was a high-end  EF-1, with top winds of 110 mph,  According to a report from the National Weather Service office in Albans. An EF-2 twister has winds of 111 to 135 mph. 

This tornado traveled along the ground for 1.75 mies and 250 yards wide, NWS/Albany noted. 

I'm impressed that the tornado caused no deaths or injuries, especially since it went through a residential area and crossed the busy Northway, otherwise known as Interstate 87. 

A second, weaker tornado touched down nearby. The brief tornado touched down near Ganesvoort, New York. It had top winds of 85 mph, and was only on the ground for less than a quarter mile. 

Trees crashed through the roofs of some homes. Streets were littered with trees, and cleanup crews spent the day trying to remove the debris. 

The thunderstorm that produced the tornadoes eventually moved into Bennington County, Vermont. However, by the time it reached the Green Mountain State, the storm had weakened. I didn't find any reports of damage in southwest Vermont. 

 

Cool Saturday Morning, Unsettled Vermont Weather Week Coming Up

Some showers tried to get going in northern Vermont
Friday morning as a cold front arrived, but they never
really did amount to much. View here is a section of
Route 105 between St. Albans and Sheldon. 

Yesterday's cold front brought only sprinkles for most people. A few isolated areas got a quick shower, but the dry weather continues. We need the rain but for most of us, that's not coming for awhile. 

Meanwhile I Got up this morning and I actually felt, chilly. Autumn air was streaming though the open window. Where's my fleece?

I'm not complaining about a cool comfortable morning, not at all. But it is yet another sign of an autumn looming. 

TODAY

Burlington, Vermont had its coolest morning since June 9 this morning, but it wasn't all that cool in the grand scheme of things. It got down to 50 degrees at last check. We missed the record low for the date by a full nine degrees. So this wasn't exactly unusual.  

Most other Vermont towns were in the mid and upper 40s at dawn. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York appears to have gotten down to 36 degrees. All this sets the stage for a gorgeous day, as we've been advertising for days. 

As expected, there were plenty of foggy spots in the mountain valley early this morning. Those were starting to clear up as I wrote this at around 7:30 this morning. 

We are still in for a gorgeous day today. Sunshine will mix with some clouds. There was a patch of clouds over the northern Champlain Valley early this morning, but that should dissipate.

By afternoon, most of the scattered puffy clouds will be over the hills and mountains while broad valleys will be sunnier. The sunshine should boost temperatures into the  70s

Today will be the pick of the weekend. Though tomorrow will be OK, too.

SUNDAY 

The day will start with sunshine, but some clouds will work in, especially north. That's because a weak cold front will come at us from Quebec. A few scattered showers and maybe even a rumble of thunder could develop in the afternoon and evening, probably mostly north of Route 2.  

The best chance of showers are over the northern Green Mountains.  Not everyone will get wet, so chances are you can eke out your outdoor plans. 

Highs statewide should reach well into the 70s again, so it'll be comfortable again. 

The showers will work southward Sunday night, but will be widely scattered. 

MONDAY/ TUESDAY

The cold front will have gotten south of Vermont by Monday, but should stall not too far away from us. We'll get another nice day Monday as high pressure noses in from Quebec. It'll stay vaguely cool, with  highs in the 70s and lows Monday night within a few degrees either side of 50.

That old cold front will start to work north as a warm front Tuesday, so I think we might see some increasing clouds. That said, we still have conflicting forecasts on whether rain will sweep through during the day, or will it hold off until later? Stay tuned. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

As I noted yesterday, at least parts of Vermont are seeing a developing drought. We could use some rain for sure. Forecasts now call for a decent rainfall. Though I'm not promising it. Too often, when a lot of rain is expected three or four or five days from now, it all dries up before it gets to us, and in the end, we get little precipitation.

But for now, a storm looks like a storm coming in will drive that warm front into Vermont, and then a cold front would quickly follow. That would give us a decent batch of rain. 

We can only hope. 

This weather pattern looks like it could bring another round of severe weather for parts of the Northeast. There's been so many outbreaks of such weather this summer, For now, it looks like the severe weather might pass south of Vermont. But we'll need to watch this weather pattern, in case the trouble sneaks north. 

 

 

The weather pattern will feature channeled flow against
a deep layer high in the southeastern US and a strong, compact upper
low shifting slowly eastward across Canada. Systems with Pacific
origins will get sucked into this fast flow bringing rounds of rain.
Surface high pressure in far eastern Canada will try and keep warm,
humid air from lifting northeastwards, and so we will be on the
stable and dry side of things for the most part on Tuesday. We still
should observe increased clouds and some rain along the southern
portions of our forecast area. A stronger area of low pressure will
develop over the Great Lakes region on Wednesday, and that should
provide the focus for more active weather conditions. The interface
of dry, stable conditions on the western periphery of departing high
pressure and humid, modified tropical Pacific air will create the
potential for showers and thunderstorms beginning late Wednesday
afternoon. Elevated instability could allow thunderstorm activity to
persist overnight before the system departs early Thursday morning.
Synoptic scale models are starting to depict this feature as the one
that produces most of our rainfall next week. Dynamically, the
system appears quite vigorous and simulated IR satellite off the GFS
is showing the potential for cool cloud tops associated with the
elevated convection and strong isentropic lift. We`ll continue to
keep an eye on this feature.

Drought Developing In Northern Vermont

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates
drought conditions have started in
the Northeast Kingdom (orange shading)
Yellow areas are abnormally dry, which
is a precursor to drought. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, indicate a new drought has developed in northeastern Vermont 

About 13 percent of the state is now in drought, the report noted. The area in drought in in western Essex County, northern Caledonia County and eastern Orleans County. 

The area of abnormal dryness, which is a precursor to drought, also expanded over the past week. The dry area is in most northern Vermont, and in eastern Vermont north of White River Junction. 

As of Tuesday, when the drought data is compiled, nearly 42 percent of the state was abnormally dry or in drought. Last week, 32 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry.

This is the first time any part of the state has been in drought since the week of May 14, when the lower Connecticut Valley south of White River Junction was in drought. Heavy rain erased that area of drought during the second half of May. 

Yesterday, a little rain fell in parts of the Northeast Kingdom during some thunderstorms, but the rain didn't amount to much. Mostly a quarter inch or less. A few pinpoint spots with a little more, but the rain won't change the drought. 

Short term, over the next week or two are somewhat encouraging in terms of rainfall. We have numerous chances of rain over the next two weeks, but it's unclear how heavy that rain might be. 

Once we get into September, chances increase that storm systems create a more widespread, steady rain rather than the hit and miss thunderstorms we see in the summer.

That said, Septembers can be quite dry.  Large high pressure systems often slow down or stall over northern New England and southeast Canada in the early autumn. That creates many consecutive days of dry weather. If several such high pressure systems appear, droughts can easily intensify. 

This drought is not nearly as bad as the one that hit last summer and autumn. The current drought in the Northeast Kingdom is considered "moderate."  By October of last year, virtually all of Vermont was experiencing major or extreme drought. 

It would take a very strong shift toward almost no rain to see a repeat of last year. 

Once Again, Close Miss With The Storms In Vermont, Much Calmer Weather Coming In Today, Tomorrow

A likely tornado near Wilton, NY on
Thursday. The storm was only about
25 miles west of the Vermont border at
the time. The storm that produced the
probable tornado ended up in northern
 Bennington County, Vermont later,
but it had weakened
considerably by then, causing
little or no damage in Vermont, 

It looks like Vermont escaped much trouble from the volatile atmosphere over the region yesterday, but it was another close call.  

The only damage report I've seen in Vermont so far is in Westmore, not too far from the western shore of  Lake Willoughby.  A couple of pine trees were tossed down by severe thunderstorm winds very late in the afternoon. 

Things were much worse early last evening  a little west of Vermont in Saratoga County, New York

A likely tornado touched sown around Wilton, New York. The town is between Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls, New York and a little less than 30 miles west of the Vermont border near Rupert. 

Video on social media shows what appears to be a tornado funnel looking north from Saratoga Springs amid what is clearly a severe thunderstorm. The video also appears to show intense rear flank downdraft winds behind the possible tornado. 

The second floor of  house in Wilton was damaged, and numerous trees were reported down. Additional tree damage was reported across several spots in Gansvoort, which is about five miles east of Wilton. 

The tornado appears to have crossed  Interstate 87 (the Northway) near Wilton and Gansvoort. Fallen trees closed travel lanes.   

So far, no injuries have been reported.

The National Weather Service office in Albany, New York is headed out to Saratoga County today, especially around the town of Wilton  for a look-see to determine for sure whether that was a tornado, or just severe, damaging winds. 

The supercell that caused the likely tornado in New York continued on toward Bennington County, Vermont but weakened as it did so. I've not seen any damage reports out of southwest Vermont from the storm. 

We have an interlude of calmer weather coming in. No more tornadoes for the foreseeable future. Let's get into the daily forecasts

TODAY

One last cold front with this latest weather system is coming through today. We started out with relatively mild air, along with moderately high humidity. 

That won't last. 

The front might fire up some widely scattered showers or even a rumble of thunder in a few places. But those showers won't amount to much and many places won't see any rain at all in the north. There's a high chance that almost nobody in southern Vermont will see any rain, either. 

It's too bad there won't be widespread rain. we need it. Spoiler: I'll have more on the lack of rain in a separate post later today. 

The bonus with this front is we'll get another whoosh  of pleasant weather. This will arguably be the coolest air we've seen since early June. .Cold fronts are starting to have more oomph now as we get near September. 

Highs today will only be in the low 70s north. Southern valleys could make it to around 80 degrees as they will be the last to see the cold front. Much cooler and less humid air will keep flowing in this evening. 

SATURDAY

Still looking like a beauty. It'll start off chilly. Another sign of autumn. Most of us will be in the 40s at dawn. There could be a couple upper 30s in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. Readings near Lake Champlain will be in the low 50s. 

As usual on calm mornings this time of year, we'll start the day with patchy dense fog. But that'll burn off quickly to reveal a sunny, comfortable day. Some puffy clouds will decorate the sky, especially over the mountains. If you are in the mountains, I guess it'll be only partly sunny. Highs should reach the 70s pretty much area wide. 

No complaints, though. If you were planning an outdoor event for Saturday, the weather gods are totally with you. 

SUNDAY

Another cold front should approach Vermont from Quebec and Ontario. It'll set off clouds and maybe some showers north, but it should still be an OK day, as it looks now. The front is expected to stall in a northwest to southeast orientation somewhere near the Green Mountain State Sunday night. This has implications for the weather next week.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY

That stalled front will meander somewhere over the Northeast, but it's unclear exactly where. It's also unknown how little disturbances running along the front will behave, and whether this means any decent rains for Vermont.  

A weather set up like this caused some flooding in Rutland County, Vermont in early September, 1985, but flooding from this coming weather pattern is very much a long shot. I wouldn't worry about it. 

A possible second cold front will probably sweep it all away maybe next Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned.  

Thursday Evening Update: Strong Thunderstorms Just Moving Into Vermont As Of 5 p.m

A busy National Weather Service radar as of shortly before
5:45 p.m. today. Quite a few storms in New York headed
into Vermont at that hour. Still a chance that one or two
of them could be severe this evening. 

 The storms we expected in Vermont are generally slightly later than we expected, but they are firing up. 

A couple storms did form ahead of the main batch. On strong thunderstorm zipped through part of southeastern Vermont earlier this afternoon. 

Late this afternoon, a batch of thunderstorms developed in the Northeast Kingdom, At 5:11 p.m., a severe thunderstorm warning went up southeast of Newport, with gusts of 60 mph possibly. 

However, the bulk of the severe weather, as originally expected, looks like it will stay mostly to the southwest. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for central and eastern New York, and that watch extends into Bennington County, Vermont.

A watch means there could be a severe storm. A warning means a severe storm is happening or is about to.

Storms should move through Vermont over the next few hours.  

As of 5:30 p.m., the storm I'm watching the most was approaching Glens Falls, New York from the southwest. It was carrying a severe thunderstorm warning. That rotating storm prompted a tornado warning, issued at 5:45 p.m., for an area a little north and west of Saratoga Springs, New York.

If it holds together, it could spell real trouble. Most likely in southern Rutland County or northern Bennington County if it keeps going on its current projections.

Overall, the weather setup this evening isn't perfect for severe storms, as there's a variety of weak weather fronts around that are keeping thunderstorms from becoming focused and strong. But there's enough potential for the risk of a few more strong to maybe severe storms for the rest of this evening. 

These storms are popping up quickly and sometimes fading quickly only to rebuild, so expect a few little surprises with storms for the next few hours. This could happen anywhere in Vermont. The vast majority of us will not see severe weather. But an isolated spot or two might. Other areas could see some relatively strong storms with gusty winds, even if they don't quite meet the criteria for severe storms. 

Things should taper off nicely by later this evening, with only widely scattered, light showers overnight. 

There might be a few more scattered showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder tomorrow morning and early afternoon as a secondary cold front comes through. Things should whoosh toward much less humid air later in the day.