Relentless Clear Skies Lead To Very Nippy Vermont Morning, Much More Sunshine To Come

A few golden maple leaves were still clinging to the trees
 in St. Albans, Vermont yesterday as cool, breezy
and very dry weather continued.

 As expected, it was arguably the coldest morning of the autumn so far in Vermont.  

It looks like pretty much everyone in Vermont at dawn today was in the 20s.  I imagine the coldest hollows were in the teens. 

For example, Morrisville got down to 19 degrees, and I'm sure there were a few similar readings in the Northeast Kingdom. Burlington was down to 28, its coldest morning of the year so far. Barely. It was 29 degrees Thursday and Friday. 

The big fat high pressure system is sitting right over us today. That means clear skies and light winds for today. There were a few high clouds in southern Vermont this morning, but those should thin out even more as we go through the day. 

The sun is at a low angle but still strong enough to warm us up into the 50s. Dry air allows the sun to warm the air quickly. 

The light winds mean there also won't be as much of a bite to the air, either.  

I know this is getting boring, but bear with me. Every day is sunny, the weather just doesn't change, except for some variations in temperature. 

Anyway, as I noted, beyond today, we have plenty of sunshine, really chapped lips dry weather coming up for pretty. At least it's been easy to forecast. We've covered today, so let's get into the next few days. 

SUNDAY

Our big, fat high pressure system that's overhead today will begin to sink to the south and weaken a little. The end result will be another delightful day. I'll be below freezing again first thing in the morning. Then, with light southwest winds, temperatures will rise to the low 60s, which is absolutely beautiful ro this time year. 

It'll be another day of wall-to-wall sunshine, aside from some possible high, thin clouds late in the day. 

MONDAY

Another cold front will arrive, very much like the one we had on Thursday. That means a bunch of clouds will come in - we'll call it partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will go from light southerly to light northerly. High temperatures will depend on how many clouds come in, and when the cold front arrives. 

Dry air ahead of and behind the cold front means almost no rain. Unlike Saturday, there is a low chance of sprinkles or light showers, but it won't exactly be any real rain. n 

Forecasters are going for highs of around 60 degrees. 

TUESDAY-THURSDAY AND BEYOND

The next in a series of big, fat high pressure system will drift in from south central Canada. This one will likely be even a little stronger than the one that's sitting overhead today. Each one of these has been a little colder than the last. That'll probably happen this time, too. We're getting closer and closer to winter. We have to expect that, right?

Tuesday's highs look like they'll stay in the 40s, so a little cooler than yesterday, for comparison. After a frigid Wednesday morning, we'll warm up again. Not to toasty levels, just more comfortable again.  

Beyond that, you can't always count on forecast being right this far in advance. But early indications point to another cold front, again with very light rain or none at all, with another big, fat, high pressure system of clear, dry air to follow. 

I don't know when this weather pattern will break down. A week ago, I thought it would be around October 30. Now, it maybe looks like we'll wait until November 3 or 4 before noticeable precipitation falls. Who knows? Maybe it'll get postponed again. 

But this nice weather can't last forever. And we need the rain. Or snow, since we're talking November by the time any substantial storm tries to come through. 

Back To Rare, Long Stretch Of Blue Vermont Skies Through Weekend. Maybe Beyond?

Sunshine filters through lingering golden maple leaves
on trees yesterday morning in St. Albans, Vermont. A 
long, weird sunny spell will continue in the state
for several more days. 

What was that in the sky yesterday? 

Yeah, they were clouds as a new push of cool air blobbed its way into Vermont yesterday. 

Vermont is among the cloudiest places in the United States, especially as we get later and later into autumn.

 But you'd never know it. Days of sunshine before a period of clouds yesterday, then, coming up, another long string of blue sky days. 

Ominously, it hasn't rained in six days, and the dry weather is now looking like it will probably last through most of next week. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation continues to warn of a high fire danger today. And most likely beyond. 

Here's the usual daily details of the forecast.

TODAY

As advertised, the air has gotten cooler today. For now.  We started this morning with sunrise temperatures within a few degrees either side of 30.  With north breezes continuing, highs will only reach to within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. Other than the chance of a few small stratocumulus clouds, the sky should stay blue all day. 

SATURDAY

It continues to appear we'll have the coldest morning of the year across Vermont. Morning lows statewide should be in the 20s. Actually, we'll see  low to mid 20s in many towns away from the Champlain Valley. A few of the coldest mountain valleys could touch the upper teens. 

But be patient. Dry air heats up a lot faster than humid air when the sun is out. This is chapped lips dry air With light winds, because the big, fat high pressure system will be pretty much right tier head. Highs should get into the 50s, which is pretty normal for this time of year. 

SUNDAY 

What goes up must go down when the air is dry.  At night, dry air cools off faster than wetter air. So it'll be back below freezing when dawn breaks on Sunday.  But the big, fat high pressure system should be sinking a little to our south. 

That means we'll have light south to southwest winds, enough to boost our temperatures to around 60 degrees, give or take. So, this Sunday will be virtually a carbon copy of last Sunday. 

MONDAY

The next cold front comes in. The air ahead of, and behind the front will be very dry. Again. So we'll probably have something like we did yesterday.  Clouds will come in. This time, there might be a few isolated, inconsequential sprinkles. But no real rain. Winds will shift from light south to light northerly. 

How warm it gets depends on when the front arrives. For now, it looks like it could get to 60 degrees or so. That's an early guess.

REST OF WEEK

Yet another big, fat high pressure system will move in from southern Canada, so we'll go through the same routine we're going through right now.  Tuesday will be chilly, even nippier than today will be. As the cool air rushes in, winds will probably pick up, increasing the already high fire danger.

Then it will warm up a little during the rest of the week. Under those relentlessly sunny skies. 

Despite the dry weather, the sunny skies are quite a break from our usually overcast skies.  But remember, no great weather in Vermont goes unpunished. We'll pay for this with lots of storminess, eventually. 

Especially with a super El Nino raging in the Pacific Ocean. 

Clear Skies Continue In Vermont; Cooler, Gusty Winds, Then Clear, Calm Again; Things Really Drying Out

Another clear day yesterday, but the foliage in Vermont
is well past peak, fading to yellow and rust colored
hues, as seen Wednesday in St. Albans. 

 We had another crystal clear day Wednesday, the third day in a row of such weather. It was almost the fourth day, but there were just a few high clouds on Sunday, but it was basically wall to wall sunshine then, too. 

This very dry air means there's a daily big range between high and low temperatures. Normally, this time of year, the range between low and high temperatures is 16 degrees. 

So far this week, the daily range has been between 24 and 38 degrees. This cold morning/pleasant afternoons pattern will continue through the weekend, with maybe an asterisk or two. 

Temperatures Wednesday afternoon were about there same as on Thursday. But it was less breezy, so it felt warmer. The wind is going to pick up again, so grab that fleece for the next couple of days.

DROUGHT

The dry weather is  on concerning, of course. The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor was released this morning. Rainfall between October 11 and 16 reduced the size of the drought in the Northeast Kingdom. 

As of this morning's report, 14 percent of the state was in drought, compared to 41 percent the week before. But about 82 percent of the state is still either abnormally dry or in drought. I'm sure this will increase with next week's report, since no rain is expected. 

Let's get into the daily forecasts:  

TODAY

The first half of today will be a carbon copy of yesterday. We started the day below freezing statewide once again. Sunshine will make temperatures rise into the 50s. But, as we've been tracking for days, a reinforcing shot of cooler air is on our doorstep. 

Usually, this means a cold front with showers. But the air is so dry that we'll just end up with partly cloudy skies during the afternoon. There might be extra clouds in the northern mountains. But no rain or snow flurries. 

Highs will probably be a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. North winds will pick up this afternoon and evening, too, so you will feel the chill in the air. 

FRIDAY

The morning will start out  as cold or even colder than recent mornings. Lows most places will be in the 20s, with a smattering of low 20s in some of the deeper valleys. Under clear skies once again, it'll warm up rapidly. But it won't get as warm as recent days. Readings will peak within a few degrees of 50. 

SATURDAY

Yet another clear day. People with solar panels on their roofs must be loving this. The big, fat high pressure system that was over us yesterday and today will be gone. It will be replaced by an even  bigger, fatter high pressure system pretty much smack dab over us. 

We'll have the coldest morning of the year so far. Lows in most of Vermont will be between 20 and 25 degrees. Maybe some upper teens in the cold spots, upper 20s close to Lake Champlain. 

Winds will be pretty calm all day, and highs will get into the 50s. 

SUNDAY

More of the same. The big, fat high pressure will sink a little to our south, setting up a slight southwest breeze. So, we'll start the day below freezing again, but warm up to near 60 degrees. So, really nice!

MONDAY

Another reinforcing shot of cold air begins to arrive, with another very weak cold front. This one might actually be "strong" enough to produce a sprinkle. In a few spots. Maybe. Depending on the timing of the front, we might eke out a fairly warm day. For now, forecasters are calling for a high of 60 degrees.

Following that, another big, fat high pressure system. The long dry spells continues. 

Clear Weather Continues In Vermont, But We've Also Flipped To Cooler Air

Another crystal clear late autumn day yesterday in
St. Albans, Vermont. More of the same is coming
up over the next few days, but it will become 
a little cooler late week. 

 Monday and Tuesday were a great example of how two consecutive days can look exactly the same if you look out the window, but feel different if you walk outdoors. 

Monday here in Vermont was clear, balmy and calm, with highs in the 60s. Skies on Tuesday were crystal clear, too. 

But the air was cooler and there was a stiff northerly breeze. It was still a gorgeous day, but the air had a slight bite to it, especially if you were in the shade and exposed to those north winds.

The joys of autumn

This long stretch of sunny weather will continue, but it will get even cooler for the next few days. Big fat high pressure systems with dry weather and sunshine now look like they could continue over northern New England until Halloween. 

As always, let's get into the details

TODAY

Given the fact that Tuesday was cooler, it make sense that this morning was chillier than the night before, too. Most places in Vermont started the day in the mid and upper 20s.  Even the Champlain Valley was solidly on the frosty side. Burlington reported a low temperature this morning of 30. 

Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was at 18, ,which is the nippiest temperature we've seen around the region so far this autumn. 

We'll end up with highs this afternoon in the 50s, very similar to yesterday. The winds should be a little lighter than yesterday, so there might not be as much of a wind chill. 

Skies should once again be pretty much crystal clear or close to it. 

THURSDAY

We've been expecting a reinforcing shot of cooler air to come in, and that's still on the table. We'll start the day similar to this morning, with frost and freezes in most places. During the later morning and afternoon, north winds will pick up and temperatures will hold in the low the mid 50s. 

Though there will be a fair amount of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys, some clouds will come through, too. That's 'because the new shot of cool air will be led by a very weak cold front that will herald its arrival.

Since it's been so dry, and there's so many dried out fallen leaves on the ground now, we'll have to worry a little about brush and forest fires, since the wind would help push around anything that starts. So be careful out there!

FRIDAY

The coolest day of the week. You'll notice it! Another big, fat, high pressure system will slowly sink southward from Quebec. It'll be another chapped lip day, with very low humidity and lots of bright sunshine. North breezes will continue but will tend to diminish in the afternoon. 

Highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50. Call it mid-40s way up in the Northeast Kingdom and northern Vermont hill towns to mid-50s in the lower Connecticut River Valley

SATURDAY

We'll start with probably the coldest morning of the year so far. Pretry much all of us will be in the 20s, with some teens possibly showing up in the coldest mountain valleys. The day will be clear once again with light winds and temperatures in the low to mid 50s,  Maybe some upper 50s in the warmest souther valleys

All this is courtesy of the big, fat high pressure system which will probably be right on top of us. 

SUNDAY

We do it again. Cold morning, milder afternoon under lots of sunshine. It'll be a little warmer than previous days with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

NEXT WEEK

Still kind of more of the same. Much like this week, Monday will be the mildest day of the week with temperatures up near 60 under sunny skies. A very weak cold front will introduce yet another big, fat, cool, dry, sunny high pressure system. 

The cold front on Tuesday might through a few clouds at us, with perhaps a sprinkle or mountain snow flurry, but that's really iffy. The sunny, dry weather will continue for a couple days. Now we're in the long range, so it gets uncertain. It's possible another cold front would come through late in the week with slightly more noticeable showers, but that remains to be seen. 

 The pattern still looks mostly dry at least until we get into the first few days of November. 

Monday Weather Over-Performed In Vermont Gorgeousness. Rest Of Week Provides Sun And A Cool Down

Autumn leaves on the trees glowed in the late afternoon 
sun in my St. Albans, Vermont yard yesterday. The
sunshine will continue all week, but grab the fleece
and sweaters. It will turn a little cooler. 

 Usually when I say the weather "over-performed" in Vermont, it means the storm was worse than expected. 

Yesterday was quite the opposite. The weather was definitely an over-performer, but decidedly on the gorgeous side. 

It was blue skies and wall-to-wall sunshine, as expected. But that sun had a little more oomph to it than forecast. It got warm. Burlington reached 67 degrees, compared to the forecast high of 63.

Montpelier also reached 67 degrees. St. Johnsbury and Bennington were close at 66 degrees. Rutland was even warmer at 69. You get the picture. Monday was an absolutely delight. 

The "heat wave" is now over, and a week-long cooling trend has started. But as long as you grab a sweater or some fleece, the rest of the week will be fantastic to view any lingering foliage under the sunshine, or to get going on autumn yard cleanup. As alway's we'll get into the details next.

TODAY

With such dry air in place, it was inevitable this morning would be chilly. (Dry air does not hold the heat at night nearly as much as humid air). Most of us started the day in the low to mid 30s with some upper 20s in the cold spots. Highs under the sunshine today will be in the mid and upper 50s, with a few low 60s in a couple spots in the Champlain Valley and valleys in southern parts of the state.

We'll have a slight breeze from the north today, which is a switch from the southerly breezes we saw yesterday. 

WEDNESDAY

Pretty much a carbon copy of today. A chilly, frosty morning yielding to high in the 55 to 62 degree range under the afternoon sunshine. 

THURSDAY

This is when that stalled storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast starts to make its move northeastward, further out to sea. That motion will help pull down a reinforcing push of cooler air. The north breezes will he a little stronger than then were earlier in the week. 

The reinforcement of the cool air might help create a vague cold front, which could produce a few clouds and maybe even a sprinkle in a couple spots. But there will be sunshine, too. Highs will reach the 50s again. 

FRIDAY

The computer models that had earlier suggested a very cold day have relaxed. But it will be the chilliest day of the week nonetheless. Big, fat high pressure will be just to our north and west, dominating the vast province of Quebec and eastern Ontario. We'll have cool northerly breezes. 

Under sunny skies, highs will be within a few degrees either side of 50. 

By Friday, we'll have to start worrying about brush fire risks. The air will have been incredibly dry all week. Those fallen leaves will have dried out, too.  This will not be the week to burn away that brush pile sitting in the back 40.

SATURDAY

We'll start off really cold. There's a decent chance it'll be the coldest morning so far this autumn, with lows right down there in the 20s. Maybe a few low 30s right by Lake Champlain. At this point, it's too late to worry about saving gardens anyway. If you're still covering up your plants, good for you, but the effort has probably gotten Sisyphean. 

The day will be another sunny, cool one. This is a little long range so subject to change. At this point, though, it looks like highs should be in the 50s, with maybe some upper 40s in some northern Vermont hill towns. 

SUNDAY

Sunny and a little warmer. Highs in the 50s to around 60s. The brush and woodland fire risk will continue through the weekend. Thankfully, winds will be on the light side, which means fires might not spread too rapidly. Still, this weekend will definitely not be the one to play with matches, or be careless with your campfire or cigarettes. 

NEXT WEEK

The stalled weather pattern with the big, fat high pressure systems sitting over or near us should finally start to break down. Our next chance of any precipitation is probably later Tuesday. It's hard to say how much we'll get, but at this point, the rainfall next Tuesday night or Wednesday or thereabouts looks pretty lame. 

NOAA Winter Outlook Gives Vermont, Rest of Northern U.S. A Warm Winter, But Take It With A Grain Of Salt

NOAA's winter forecast has warmer than normal air,
in general across the northern U.S, and a tossup
across the South. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its winter outlook last week, and it was designed by El Nino.  

In general, El Ninos tend toe provide the northern tier of states with mild winters, while the South is stormy. That's not always the way it works out, it's just a tendency. 

Right now, we have a record breaking super El Nino underway, so NOAA is going with the traditional El Nino game plan for the winter.

NOAA has the best chances of warmer than average temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes and northern and central New England 

The chances of milder than average temperatures are less certain in the central United States, though NOAA is leaning that way. NOAA is also predicting near average temperatures for Florida and the far Southeast. And it's a coin toss between above and below average temperatures in the Southwest. 

NOAA's winter precipitation forecast has wetter than
normal conditions across the South and maybe the East
and dry spots in the northern Rockies and Great Lakes 

Also staying true to El Nino's blueprint, NOAA calls for a wetter than average winter over the south. Especially in southern and central California and the Southeast. The northern Rockies and parts of the Great Lakes lean drier than normal.

The East Coast is a bit of a wildcard, but NOAA is leaning wet there, too. Some of those southern storms take a turn north along the coast. It's unclear if this means a bunch of rain and mixed precipitation or snow. But if the temperature forecast is right, snowstorms won't linger long on the ground like last winter. 

If the NOAA forecast is right. 

Long range forecasts are notorious. tricky, and are at least sometimes inaccurate. RalphWeatherOBS on Twitter brought receipts. 

For instance, last winter, NOAA forecast the northern Rockies to be on the cold side and southern Rockies. The entire West turned out to be very warm last year, so in that region of the nation. NOAA was half right. 

For 2024-25, NOAA predicted the East Coast would have a warm winter. Instead it was near to slightly cooler than average. 

OLD FARMER'S ALMANAC

For what it's worth, the winter prediction map for the Old' Farmer's Almanac is confusing. They have northern and southeast New England as "mild, dry," while central and parts of western New England are "cold, snowy."  For one small region of the nation, you really can't have both, so I don't know what gives. 

The Old Farmer's Almanac breaks it down this way with a little more detail for the Northeast: 

Temperatures would be above  normal in the north, below normal south. The coldest period would be in early to mid January. Precipitation is expected to be below normal, though snowfall might be above normal south.  

THE FARMER'S ALMANAC

There's another almanac that's been around forever, The Farmer's Almanac that also does winter forecasts. 

This almanac seems to have El Nino in mind, too. They predict a number of coastal storms going up the Eastern Seaboard, much like the supposed "typical" El Nino winter.

Since it will be a generally mild winter, again, presumably due to E Nino, this pattern involves a lot of mixed precipitation and wet snow, according to this Almanac. 

Of course, Almanacs are just fun. They don't accurately predict the weather, no matter what they say.

El Nino is also no guarantee, as we mentioned above. The only thing I'm certain about this coming winter is that there will be surprises. 

 

Long Stretch Of Sunny Vermont Weather Continues, With Subtle Day To Day Changes

People strolling on a nice autumn day yesterday in 
Georgia, Vermont. Mostly sunny weather will 
continue all week, but there will be some 
subtle day to day changes. 

 Sunday surely cleaned up nice. 

Temperatures soared well into the 50s and winds were on the light side, making for a delightful day. 

As previously advertised, this begins a stretch of mostly sunny weather that could last at least until next Monday. With a few little hiccups thrown in. Those hiccups won't make much of a different, though. 

The overall pattern continues the same: Strong high pressure centered near northern New England and  Quebec, with strong low pressure spinning off the Mid-Atlantic coast. That low pressure won't have a  direct effect on us, but might influence temperatures a bit. 

Also, the shape the big high pressure system will shift over time, influencing our temperatures. Eventually, a reinforcement of that giant bubble of high pressure will also lower our temperatures a bit. Eventually. 

Here are the dailies

TODAY

The start of the workweek will be the warmest part of this sunny spell. As is typical with clear skies this time of  year, the day started cold again - 20s in much of Vermont, 30s in the Champlain Valley. 

The high today is stretched out between that storm off the coast, and another one up by Hudson Bay. That will set up a southwest winf flow. Highs should get to near 60 in many spots, low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

TUESDAY

The high pressure will start to rebuild and strengthen over the Great Lakes as the storm near Hudson Bay takes off toward the Arctic. This will begin to set up a north wind that will gradually lower temperatures. This new arrangement looks like it could create a cold front of sorts that might spread some clouds around Vermont in the morning, but it should turn sunny. Highs should he well up into the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY

The center of the strong high pressure will have moved to southern Quebec by Wednesday. The cool north flow will continue but barely. The proximity of the high will mean light winds. It also means a cold, frosty start to the day, with lows in the 25 to 32 degree range for most of us. Highs should reach the 50s again. 

THURSDAY

The storm off the East Coast looks like it wants to contribute to a dip in the jet stream forming in far eastern Canada. That will eventually help tug a reinforcing high pressure system into Quebec.  All this might spread a couple clouds our way and hold temperatures in the low to mid 50s.

FRIDAY

The models are still disagreeing on how cold it will get with that trough in eastern Canada and the cold high pressure system coming in behind it. The most pessimistic computer models would hold daytime temperatures in the mid 30s a mid 40s and we'd deal with a stiff north with along with some clouds and sprinkles and flurries. 

Other models keep us partly sunny with highs in the 45 to 52 degree range. We'll wait and see how this resolves. But the chances of measurable precipitation are really low no matter which model you look at. 

SATURDAY

As it looks now, strong high pressure will be centered right overhead in Vermont, or close to it. If that happens, look for another cold, frosty morning, followed by another sunny day with highs at least in the low to mid 50s/

SUNDAY

The high might slip just to our south, turning the very light winds to a southwesterly direction. If that happens, we could pop up into the low 60s again under sunny 

BEYOND SUNDAY

It's hard to say how and when these persistent weather patterns break down, but we could start to see that early next week.  For now, the next chance of any rain would be around Wednesday, October 28