Vermont Avoiding Midwest Weather Chaos, Though A Few Storms Could Rumble Through Here Today, Tomorrow

Damage from severe weather in Tinley Park, Illinois on
Tuesday. Photo via Facebook, Midwest/Great Lakes
Storm Chasers

 Midwestern storms - likely a derecho - yesterday made the violent storms that hit Franklin County, Vermont on Monday evening look like a pleasant summertime sun shower. 

The Midwestern storms caused at least three deaths, and I predict this will be another billion dollar disaster for the U.S. 

Intense thunderstorm winds swept from Iowa to West Virginia. At least six tornadoes were reported and more will emerge as National Weather Service meteorologists investigate the carnage today. Two tornadoes struck suburban Chicago, an area that has been especially raked by severe storms and tornadoes this summer.

The National Weather Service had at least 723 reports of powerful thunderstorm winds. Straight line winds gusted to over 90 mph in several Illinois towns. 

In Portage, Illinois, a house exploded because of weather related causes, killing a person there. Police officers responding to the explosion had to walk a mile to the house because fallen trees made all streets in accessible. 

There's no rest for the Midwestern weary.  Severe thunderstorms are likely today in a broad band from South Dakota and Nebraska to Indiana and Kentucky. Flash flooding is also a good bet in large parts of the Midwest over the next four days. 

Here in Vermont, we're going to just mostly watch all this from the sidelines. But we will have some showers and thunderstorms to harass us for the next couple of days. 

TODAY

Not quite as nice a Wednesday as we thought yesterday, but still pretty good. It'll be partly sunny with temperatures peaking at around 80 degrees. It's now looking like we'll have some hit and miss shower and thunderstorms across central and northern Vermont this evening. At this point it looks like maybe only 50 percent of us get wet. 

Even better: So far at least, these storms don't look l like they'll be strong. We're definitely hoping for no more surprises like we saw Monday evening. 

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT

More showers and storms are likely during Thursday and Thursday evening as a cold front approaches. Many places won't have thunder at all, or if they do, it'll be just a couple of rumbles. There's still a chance one or two storms could be strong north of Route 2, but that's really iffy. Shower chances are lower in southern Vermont. 

By the way, we're starting to get out of the season in which severe thunderstorms are most likely. Severe storm season, such as it is in Vermont is usually from around Memorial Day to early August. We can still get severe thunderstorms into September, but the chances of that happening are now much lower than they were at the peak of summer. 

FRIDAY

The first hint of autumn of the season. Well see brisk northwest winds and partly sunny skies. There could be some brief light showers over the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. Highs should reach the 70s, with maybe a few upper  60s in higher towns north and some remote areas of the Northeast Kingdom

SATURDAY

A beauty! After a cool start with readings in the low 50s at dawn, we should see sunshine with highs in the 70s. Rock bottom humidity, too

SUNDAY

Some changes to the previous forecast, as it might not be as nice as we initially hoped.  Another disturbance in the fast west to east flow looks like it could spread some rain and showers our way. Southern Vermont in particular might see a good soaking rain, which would be great since they've mostly been missing out on the showers and storms lately. They could really use the rain.

The path and orientation of this weather system is still in question, so expect some changes to the forecast. 

Clean Up From Ferocious Storms In Franklin County. So Far, No Signs Of Any Tornado Touchdowns

Large trees snapped off in this yard along Maquam
Shore road in Swanton this morning. 

 The song of today in St. Albans and Swanton was the buzz of chainsaws. 

Large fallen trees and branches were everywhere, especially in St. Albans City and along Maquam shore in Swanton. 

Tree crews filled the streets cleaning up the mess. Homeowners in the two towns spent a good part of the day playing pick up sticks in their yards. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington, in a Facebook post this afternoon, said they have not dispatched anyone to determine whether there was a tornado or not.

Part of the statement said, "There was brief radar indicated rotation between St. Albans and Fairfield, VT that prompted the tornado warning at 7:35 p.m. However, we have not received any reports of damage near Fairfield, nor anything to prompt us to go survey, so we will stand down on sending any teams out at this time."

As I noted this morning, I clearly saw rotation in the clouds last evening, but no sign of any real funnels or tornadoes. I live on the east side of St. Albans, kind of on the way to Fairfield, so I would have been close to the most intense rotation.

The National Weather Service noted that strong straight line winds of 60 mph, and locally in excess of 70 mph hit in some areas.  

I did my own little storm survey this morning. It seems like there were two concentrated areas of wind damage. One right through St. Albans City, and another worse one along Maquam Shore in Swanton.That area had many, many downed trees, mostly in a two-mile wide band near and north of Cohen Park, 

Almost all the trees along Maquam Shore fell in basically the same direction, so I'd assume that area got hit by a microburst. My guesstimate is winds in St. Albans City reached maybe 60 to as much as 70 mph in the most intense gust

The worst hit area of Maquam Shore easily had 70 mph winds. Probably more than that in isolated spots. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an isolated gust to 80 mph or more. I didn't go out to North Hero to look at the damage there. 

I'm glad the storms moved right along because the rainfall out of them was incredibly torrential. Jeffersonville picked up 2.09 inches of rain. Smuggler Notch reported 1.85 inches. Derby Line reported 1.59 inches. At my unofficial rain gauge in St, Albans, we collected 1.38 inches 

WHAT'S NEXT

I'll have a full report in the morning, but a couple things to point out. There were some thundershowers up near Montreal this afternoon moving generally southeast toward Vermont. Those storms were pretty much garden variety, and showed a weakening trend as they headed south toward the border. 

As of 5:30 p.m., those now light to moderate showers were on the Vermont border between Richford and Newport. Nothing scary will come out of these. 

It's now looking like some scattered showers and thunderstorms might develop tomorrow after all, mostly north. So far, it doesn't look like anything severe will get going,.

More showers and possible thunderstorms see like they're in the cards Thursday. Again, so far anyway, it doesn't look like we'll have anything dreadful like last evening.  

Another Unexpected Round Of Wild, Destructive Storms Slams Vermont, Tornado Warning In Franklin County

An apparent rotating wall cloud with last evening's 
severe thunderstorm in Franklin County, Vermont.
View is from Fairfield Hill Road in St Albans.
That blue tint in the clouds indicate the storm
had plenty of hail in it. Lots of dime-sized hail
fell with the downpour at my house when the
main storm arrive. 

 This has been the summer of wild storms in Vermont and we were hit again last evening. 

Ferocious storms hit northern Vermont, especially in Franklin County last evening. The storm even prompted a tornado warning as one particular storm showed definite rotation. It's unclear whether any tornadoes touched down.  I certainly saw rotation in the clouds as the storm approaches my St. Albans house. 

The hardest hit areas seemed to be around Swanton and St. Albans.  The Maquam Shore area of Swanton and areas near St. Albans Bay had many, many downed trees and wires. There were also reports of tree damage in North Hero

In St. Albans, trees are down everywhere. Trees fell on or against houses on Main Street and  Lasalle Street. A tree reportedly fell on a tractor trailer unit in Swanton.  A tree and wires fell onto a car on Maquam Shore Road. The Swanton Fire Department was so swamped from dealing with so many trees down and other storm-related emergencies that they had to call in mutual aid from Philipsburg, Quebec.

A house in Fairfax was struck by lightning. An large apartment building roof caught fire in Essex Junction during the storms but we're still unsure if that as lightning or something else.  Dozens of people were evacuated, and five apartments were damaged.

More than 3,500 homes and businesses were without power in northwest Vermont last evening. Scattered incidents of storm damage continued into central Vermont. Hail stones, some as big as quarters, rattled some areas in Franklin County, 

Torrential rains with the storms prompted a flash flood warning in an area around Cambridge, Jeffersonville and Underhill. 

 We had been expecting showers and thunderstorms with an approaching cold front last evening. In the middle of the day, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center added a marginal risk of severe storms over northern Vermont. That mean there was a chance of an isolated incident or two of severe weather. 

But the instability with this weather system surprised us all. The storms really fired up to pretty extreme levels. Even after the worst of the storms passed through the  northern Champlain Valley at around 7:30 p.m., strong thunderstorms maintained themselves over northern New York and Vermont until around midnight. 

I was watching the initial, very severe storm as it approached St. Albans last evening and was a little surprised to see it intensifying as it did so

 

I was not far from the southern end of the storm and was even more surprised to see an area of clouds lowering and starting to spin. 

Near zero visibility amid torrential rain and screaming
straight line winds during the intense storm in
St, Albans Vermont last evening

Its forward motion was slow, but the spin maintained itself as what seemed to be the wall cloud passed overhead. It was not raining at this point. 

Suddenly, we had a wind gust from the south that I'd estimate at about 55 mph. The gust lasted just a few seconds. It was immediately followed by a sharp, very brief westerly wind gust of maybe 50 mph. 

I definitely was not hit by a tornado, but those weird gusts seemed to indicate something in the atmosphere was trying 

Then the wind calmed down briefly before the storm's gust front arrived. I was on the southern edge of the most intense downburst of wind and rain. . I could hear a loud roar as the (non-tornadic) straight line winds passed by just to my north. Here at my house, it was pretty windy, too, but the top wind gust was probably "only" about 55 to 60 mph

You can view a brief video of the apparent wall cloud in St. Albans, showing what it actually looked like at normal speed, and speeded up to show the rotation. Click on this link to view it. 

As of this writing, I'm not sure whether the National Weather Service will send investigators out to determine whether any storm damage was related to tornadoes. It appears virtually all the damage in northwest Vermont was caused by straight line winds.  I don't know whether there was a brief tornado spin up in there or  not. 

Stay tuned for updates. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

This has been a very stormy summer for the Midwest and eastern United States. Believe it or not, Vermont has missed out on several big storms that passed a little to our south. We've only been on the edge of it. 

In the next couple of days, more big, destructive storms will hit the Midwest and East. Today, intense storms are likely in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and northern Kentucky. 

Some of those same areas may be hit again tomorrow. Potentially serious flash flooding could hit parts West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky today. That flood risk will continue tomorrow and Thursday in those regions.

Once again, Vermont will be sitting just outside the main storm areas. We do have a risk of more thunderstorms. Even maybe a strong one or two. But fingers crossed, nothing like last evening. Here are the daily outlooks:

TODAY

A nice one, especially for those who unfortunately have to clean up the mess left by last night's storm. Sunshine will boost temperatures up to near 80 degrees or so. The humidity won't be rock bottom low, but definitely better than on recent days. 

WEDNESDAY

Another nice one  - almost a repeat of today.  The only difference is a few showers and thunderstorms could pop up near the Canadian border in the evening as the next weather system approaches.

THURSDAY

This is our next shot at more thunderstorms as a fairly strong cold front approaches. For now, it doesn't look like this front will create widespread severe weather. But, depending on the timing of the front, some storms could bring gusty winds again.

We'll have more on this as we get closer to the event. 

FRIDAY

Lingering showers, especially over the northern Green Mountains in a cool northwest flow of air. Highs will only be in  the 70s. Maybe upper 60s in hill towns and parts of the Northeast Kingdom. 

WEEKEND

So far, looking delightful: Sunshine with rock-bottom humidity with refreshing air. Highs will only be in the 70s again. Lows will be down in the 45 to 52 degree range,  though a little warmer near Lake Champlain. That will be the most comfortable sleeping weather we've had in ages. 

 

The Long Dangerous, Twisted Journey Of The Alleged Arsonist Of The Destructive Spokane Wildfires

Devastating scene in Spokane, Washington 
after the fires. An arsonist set the fire. The
alleged suspect has quite a history of 
crime, arson and mental illness. 

 Aaron Farinacci, the man arrested and charged with the worst of the devastating Spokane wildfires, allegedly has a history of setting fires around the city.  This one just happened to be by far the worst. 

The more information that comes out, the more court hearings we have, the more we learn that Farinacci appears to be a dangerous and deeply troubled man. 

He is charged with setting the largest and most destructive wildfire in Spokane. But court records indicate he has a history of setting fires. He giant Spokane fire was just by far the worst one he set. I  

The AP paints a vivid picture of how the horrible wildfire began: 

"On Saturday, Paul Child, 64, was driving with his grandson along some railroad tracks in his rural neighborhood northwest of Spokane. He saw a man standing and looking toward nearby trees. About 10 minutes later, as they were returning home, the man was still there.

'He was bent over in the brush, acting nervous,' Child told the Associated Press on Tuesday, 'You get the feeling this guy's up to something.'

"No longer than 10 minutes after I got home, my daughter says, 'There's a fire,'" Child called. My first words were 'That SOB started a fire!," it was the exact spot where he was standing.'"

As noted in a previous blog post,  a responding sheriff's deputies found the man matching the description Child offered walking more than a mile away from the fire's ignition point. Child arrived and basically said, "That's the guy."

Farinacci was wearing a green t-shirt that read, 'Who needs luck I have charm,"  In his backpack and fanny pack, he had cigarettes, waterproof matches and a butane lighter. 

He told deputies when he was arrested he didn't set the fire and was not anywhere near where the blaze started. The deputies were unaware of Farinacci's past suspicious activity with fires, and they were busy coordinating evacuations, so they let him go.

By Monday, August 3, investigators knew the fire was deliberately set, and the arrest was made. 

Farinacci haas quite a history anyway.  He served about a decade in prison for killing his father 16 years ago in Arizona. He was 21 years old at the time, and the shooting stemmed from an argument with his father over doing the dishes.  

 As KREM reports, Farninacci shot his father once in the face as he entered his room, the again in the back as the father turned to leave. He later died at a hospital.

Farinacci ran from the house and shot himself in the chest with the same gun he used on his father.  Farinacci later told police the shooting was an accident and told them he "deserved to be sentenced to prison as he took someone's life."

KREM continues: "He was convicted of manslaughter and aggravated assault in 2012. He was released from prison in 2020, and records show that he was discharged from probation in 2024 while living with a girlfriend in Washington State."  

Farinacci, 37, is suspected of setting several fires, each of which only covered areas about the size of buses. Another fire last August that he might have started blazed through a state park prompting evacuations, though no houses burned, according to the Associated Press.

During a court hearing Thursday, Angust 6, Judge Jeremy Schmidt found probable cause to charge Farinacci with four additional counts of arson for fires the suspect told a detective he's set since last summer. 

If detectives, prosecutors and court papers are accurate, Farinacci is a scary dude with potentially serious mental issues. Even if you don't include the time he shot his father

As KREM reports: "He told detectives his son was born in May, 2025 and he was 'having trouble dealing with life issues.'  A detective who interviews Farinacci wrote, "He feels fire is powerful, beautiful, and that things that go through fire experience a kind of rebirth."

Detectives said Farinacci admitted to starting 25 fires since last July. He's only been charged with four of them because detectives couldn't corroborate that information. One of the fires he's suspected of starting was on in July, 2025 which burned more than 1,200 and threatened some homes.

Investigators said Farinacci that "'Who needs luck I have charm" t-shirt when he set a fire on August 11, 2025.

Six days before the big conflagration, on July 24, Farinacci said what he started what is known as the Indian Bluff Fire, which ultimately harmed no homes. 

By July 31 Spokane and the rest of eastern Washington was under a particularly dangerous red flag warning, meaning the risk of wildfires the next day would be extremely 

Farinacci was paying attention to the weather forecasts. He'd waited at least a couple weeks for a day with high winds, hot temperatures and low humidity. He also said he researched other arsonists and ways to create time delay devices for setting wildfires, KREM reported.

If that's true, he weaponized weather warnings meant to protect the public. This raises another issue. There's absolutely no evidence Farinacci was involved in weather betting.

On-line prediction markets like Polymarket allow people to bet on the outcome events, like elections, sports and other occurrences. 

"It's not just easy to start a fire - now there's a potential financial incentive," said Kaitlyn Trudeau,  a California-based climate scientist with Climate Central. 

For example, as High Country News points out Polymarket list nearly 20 questions to be on during the January 2025 Los Angeles area wildfire calamity.  

The questions included "How many acres will the Palisades Fire burn by Friday? Will the Palisades Fire reach Santa Monica by Sunday? When will the Palisads fire be 50% contained?"

You can see the logical next betting question is, "How big will the next wildfire get during the next red flag warning." And you can see how somebody might start a fire so they can win big with the online gambling. 

In any event, on that dry, windy August 1, the alleged arsonist said the picked the spot where he set the big fire because he knew it would be bad, though he didn't intend for the blaze to get as big as it did. He placed a time delay device in the dry grass.

Those hundreds of Spokane area homes were now doomed. Residents will be picking up the pieces for a long time. 

The Associated Press said that the other two major fires around Spokane on August 1 were started by humans, but officials didn't say whether the fires were intentional or accidental.  

Meanwhile, while most other fires across the West were started by lightning or human accidents, some are being investigated as arson. One horrible very mentally ill people can wreck the lives of so many others. 

Much Of Nation So Rainy That Widespread Flood Risks This Week. In Vermont, Not So Much

A torrential downpour in Colchester this past Saturday.
Despite that spot of super wet weather for an hour or'
so, Vermont is starting to get a little dry, but we're'
so far not plunging into a dangerous drought like
we did at this time last year. 

 It'll be a super rainy week in much of the United States this week, with flood potential cropping up in huge areas of the Lower 48. 

Today it's the Ohio Valley and southern Arizona. Tomorrow, it's the same places, plus the central Appalachians, with West Virginia particularly in the cross hairs. Wednesday, same places, same risk. 

Thursday, it's a huge area covering the eastern Rocky Mountains and a wide stripe from Iowa to West Virginia (again!), 

Unfortunately, Washington, Oregon and much of British Columbia, ablaze with wildfires, can expect little or no rain for at least the next week. 

Here in Vermont, NOAA has us in a marginal risk of a flash flood tonight in case we have locally heavy downpours, but the risk looks really, really low. 

I'm not hoping for any floods here in Vermont. Gawd knows we've had enough of that in recent years. But with the notably exception of the Burlington area and parts of Addison County, rainfall has been lacking lately.

Dryish areas are close to those few soggy areas. For instance, Burlington has had a healthy 2.69 inches of rain so far this month. Meanwhile, my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans, maybe just 30 miles north of Burlington, has had just 0.91 inches,

We're definitely not falling into a dangerous, deep drought like we were at this time last year. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, only the tiniest sliver of Vermont right along the Massachusetts border was considered abnormally dry during July and the first week of August. 

Abnormally dry is a level that's a precursor to drought, though not actually in one. 

Last week's report introduced a new "abnormally dry" region covering most of the Northeast Kingdom. 

As I mentioned above, some rain is in the forecast, but the deep moisture that we had in place late last week and over the weekend is mostly gone. That means super soakers of rain are less likely. 

For now, we're going to see quick-hitting weather systems that will provide some rain. Unless things change, though, I don't see any widespread drenching rains in our immediate future.

As always, here are the details: 

TODAY

The next weather front is on its way for an arrival later today into tonight. That will bring our next round of showers and a few thunderstorms. Before we get there, highs today under partly cloudy skies should get to near 80 degrees. You'll notice the humidity creeping up again, though it won't be as bad as it was Friday and Saturday.

Though some locally heavy downpours are possible tonight, most areas won't see all that much rain. 

Amounts will be highly variable as they always are with summertime cold fronts. But in general, it looks like areas north of Route 2 might see a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a trace to a quarter inch further south. Again with localized exceptions. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

Nice late summer weather after lingering showers clear out early Tuesday. Both days will feature sunny afternoons with reasonably low humidity levels. Not rock bottom, but close enough. Highs should get up to somewhere in the vicinity of 80 degrees. Tuesday night will be our firs real ahhhhh night in awhile, as lows will drop into the 50s,

THURSDAY

The next quick cold front come through. It looks like a fairly lengthy stretch of shower risks from Wednesday night through Friday morning. However, with the exception of locally heavy downpours, so far, this rainfall also looks unimpressive. Stay tuned on that in case there are any changes. Could be, as there's a chance this system could grab better moisture. So far, though, I'm pessimistic on a soaker.

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

Once we get this far ahead of ourselves, take forecasts with not a grain of salt, but with a great big hunk of frozen together rock salt. But as it stands now, we have a shot at some delightful weather, with just a hint of autumn. 

Daytime highs under (cross your fingers) sunny skies would stay in the 70s. Nighttime lows would be within a few degrees either side of 50, so definitely some great sleeping weather. 

REST OF THE MONTH

So far, there's not many signs of weather excitement for us, but those kinds of things can emerge as we get closer to specific events. For now, it looks like we'll stay in a pretty fast west to east wind flow. That means frequent but not huge shifts in the weather. Under this scenario, we'd have occasional quick hits of showers interspersed with sunny periods that are neither particularly hot or cool for this time of year.

Since summer isn't quite over, there might be a very warm, humid day or two thrown into the mix, but nothing too scary. 

Vermont Begins Slow Descent Out Of Humidity Hell. Also, Wild Storm Hits Part Of Champlain Valley Saturday

Storm clouds over Colchester, Vermont swirl as a severe
thunderstorm approached late Saturday afternoon,

We were expected some garden variety storms Saturday, but the one that struck the southern Champlain Islands and northwestern Chittenden County was anything but. Anyone who was in that storm had an exciting hour or so. 

The largely isolated severe storm blew up on approach from New York toward South Hero, Vermont. In South Hero, there were many branches and trees down, and hail reached the size of quarters and even half dollars. 

It must have been chaos at Sand Bar State Park.  A very warm, humid day that surely lured crowds to the beach was interrupted by the storm packing 62 mph winds at the park. The storm continued on into the Burlington metro area, with slightly less wind but with torrential, blinding rain. 

Burlington had 1.09 inches of rain in just an hour, quickly flooding streets in Burlington, South Burlington and Williston. The total rainfall of 1.22 inches in Burlington was a record for the date.

After Burlington, the storm broke up into numerous showers and storms that gave most of the northern half of Vermont a decent wetting. The exception was the most of the northern Champlain Valley. St. Albans just had a trace of rain in a brief sprinkle. 

Another severe storm caused a lot of damage in western Massachusetts, including a partial building collapse in Springfield, Massachusetts that displaced 46 people. 

After that storminess, Vermont will gradually descend out of the intense humidity that has plagued us for the past three days.

TODAY

Williston Road in South Burlington flooded after 
Saturday's severe storm. Moments after this
photo was taken, police closed the road.

We're starting the day almost as humid as it's been for the past few days. The humidity will continue to go down slightly, so by afternoon, it won't exactly be comfortable, but still noticeably better than yesterday. 

Early this morning, we still had some clouds and widely scattered sprinkles around, but it should largely clear up by afternoon. 

There's a little wildfire smoke in the atmosphere - we'll have to get used to that as the western U.S. continues to burn - but the smoke won't be enough to block the sun or cause a lot of health issues. 

MONDAY

Dawn will break Monday with air more comfortable than we've seen in days. Still mild, with a low within a few degrees either side of 60 degrees.

It will turn somewhat more humid again, but not as bad as yesterday. Another cold front is coming, and clouds will increase. Showers and storms will start to creep in during the afternoon. Scattered stuff, hit or miss. Some of us will stay dry during the day. 

We'll have quite a few showers and rumbles of thunder around Monday night. They won't amount to much. Most of us will see a quarter inch of rain or less.

TUESDAY

Probably a nice day. Sunshine, somewhat less humid air will help.  Highs should reach 80 degrees, or maybe low to mid 80s in the warmer valleys. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

The next cold front in our gradual cool down and humidity flushing will approach.  Wednesday might temporarily be a little more humid than Tuesday, but not anywhere nearly as bad as we just endured. This will be a quick moving system, so the rain Wednesday night and Thursday again won't be particularly heavy. 

FRIDAY/SUNDAY

Cool weather! Quick moving, weak weather disturbances will keep light showers chances going. But the sun will be out during at least part of the days will be sunny. And it won't be humid! Highs will only be in the 70s and lows will drop into the 50s.  

Rain Oddly Lacking In Vermont's "Florida Weather" Spell; Gradual Trend To Big, Long Cooldown Starts In Upcoming Week

Chaotic looking sky over St. Albans, Vermont early
last evening as showers and storms tried to develop
over New York state. By the time the showers or
their remnants reached Vermont later in the
evening, most of us got very little rain. 

 It's really sticky out there again as we wake up this Saturday morning, but the end is in sight. It will be a gradual trend toward cooler, less humid air but we'll get there. More on that in a bit. 

One thing that's sort of surprising me about this spell of super humid air is the lack of rainfall in most places. I tend to associated such high humidity with lots of downpours and even flash flooding. 

A few places have experience just that, but the majority of us so far haven't. 

For instance, through around mid-morning yesterday, most places in Vermont had received less than a quarter inch of rain. 

Many places had nothing. There were just a few exceptions to that. Shoreham was drenched with 2.4 inches of rain in the 24 hours ending midmorning Friday. 

The widely scattered towns of Shelburne, Orwell and West Rutland picked up about an inch during that time. t 

More showers and storms formed yesterday afternoon and last night, but they also didn't wet down all that many people.

Overnight, the National Weather Service office in Burlington saw fit to issue a flash flood warning for an area on the New York side of Lake Champlain due to slow moving downpours. This was in a zone generally encompassing Elizabethtown, Westport, Essex, Moriah, Willsboro and Keene. 

Burlington is just about the only major town or city in Vermont that has made out well with the rain. They've had an inch of rain since Thursday. Here in St. Albans, we've at least had some wetting, but not much. We had just 0.12 inches overnight for a two-day total of right around a quarter inch. I'll still have to keep the sprinklers handy, even if there is more rain in the forecast. 

The same state of affairs with scattered showers and storms will continue today. Many of us could get a little wet, but probably only a small number of us will get thoroughly drenched. The details:

TODAY

Whatever overnight rain we did receive had mostly moved out. as of 8 a.m. today. Some showers were lingering in the Northeast Kingdom. 

More scattered downpours had already gotten going in central New York and those might head toward central Vermont, if they hold together, Which is iffy. More showers and storms will develop in the horribly humid air this afternoon and evening. 

As always, it's hard to say exactly who gets the storms. Though there are some tentative indications that central Vermont has the best chance, we'll see. The showers and storms won't be moving all that quickly.  So there's a minimal risk that a handful of places could see some very local flash flood issues if a downpour stalls overhead,  No guarantee, but it's slightly possible.  

In any event, all of us will continue to wilt in high humidity today. Highs should make it back into the low and mid 80s. Maybe some isolated upper 80s where it doesn't rain, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

Tonight will remain humid with patches of fog forming. Some lingering widely scattered showers could linger well into the night.

SUNDAY

Actually, not terrible. Pretty darn good, in fact! After a risk of early morning showers, skies should become at least partly sunny. The humidity will be down, too. It won't exactly be refreshing, but it will feel only a little on the sticky side. Highs should get well into the 80s again. Winds will he on the light side, so we should have a decent beach and boating day. 

MONDAY

The shift in the weather pattern will be beginning, but we won't quite feel it yet on Monday. An approaching cold front will gradually cloud up our skies. Humidity will rise again, but not quite to the level we saw in the past couple of days. 

We'll have a rising chance of shower and maybe thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, with highs in the 80s.

TUESDAY

This will be our first step down as we enter a cooling trend that will also gradually lower our humidity levels. Dew points should be in the low 60s again by afternoon, which isn't terrible. Highs will be seasonably near 80 under what we think will be partly sunny skies.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY

A series of weather disturbance will zip through in a fast west to east flow. Each one of these will bring our temperatures down a couple notches. Since these disturbances will be moving fast and we'll be out of the super humid air, we probably won't get all that much rain. 

By the end of the week and into next weekend, we'll be seeing daytime highs in the 70s and lows probably in the mid and upper 50s. That's actually a little cooler than average for mid-August. 

With the usual caveat that long range forecast can change, I really don't see any signs of more heat and humidity until at least the last week of August. Maybe beyond that, who knows. Could this be the end of summer? 

The answer is probably not. But after this weekend, I think we might be passing the peak risk of heat and humidity for the summer. We've actually entered solar autumn. The 25 percent of the year with strongest sun and longest daylights ended earlier this week. That puts us in "solar autumn" the 25 percent of the year when daylight shortens the quickest.  

However, in our topsy-turvy climate changed and El Nino world we're in now, we could still see some torrid weather in September. It's just that the chances of that happening are diminishing.