Today Is Another Nice Vermont Summer Day. Tomorrow Brings Showers, But Probably Not Enough

A pot of flowers enjoys this morning's sunshine in 
St. Albans, Vermont. We've been watering these
plants since  not enough rain has been falling from
the sky. A little rain is forecast tomorrow

 We promised a perfect Friday weather day and that is what we got. 

Nothing was wrong. Temperatures were perfect, skies were blue with just a few puffy clouds. And somehow, despite all the wildfires burning out West and in Canada, there was no smoky haze in the atmosphere. 

The weather for the weekend won't be as nice as yesterday. But the rest of today should be OK, and Sunday probably won't be a complete washout. 

I had a late night, so I'm doing my morning report really late so, let's get into it

REST OF TODAY

Sunshine should  generally hang on, as forecasters have delayed an expected increase in clouds. Some clouds will work in during the afternoon, but it should remain a nice one. Judging from this morning's satellite photos, southeast Vermont will likely have more clouds that the northwest part of the state. 

High temperatures should be within a few degrees either side of 80. 

SUNDAY

We're still lookin at two storms going past us, one to the east, one to the west. The weak coastal storm to the east will take almost all of its rain through eastern New England. The storm to the west, moving into Quebec, will take most of its rain through western New York and on toward Ottawa and north of that.

That western storm should swing a weather front toward us, leaving mixed opinions on how that will affect Vermont weather. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says instability in the atmosphere will be pretty lame, so if any thunderstorms do manage to get going they won't be particularly intense

Meanwhile,  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning there could be an isolated storm or two that could produce damaging winds. Severe weather under this scenario wouldn't be widespread, but there could be a trouble spot or two

In any event, most of us won't get that much rain tomorrow afternoon and evening. Except for places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm, we should expect a quarter inch of rain or less.

High temperature should get into the 70s and low 80s, and it'll feel little more humid than it's been lately. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

The storm, such as it is, will swirl up on Quebec for a couple days, sending somewhat cool breezes and some moisture our way. That means partly to mostly cloudy skies and showers. Those showers should be few and far between in southern valleys, but pretty frequent far north and in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

The showers won't be particularly heavy. Northern areas might pick up another quarter inch of rain, while southern spots will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less. We could use much more rain than that, but I don't see any real soakers on the horizon. 

Wild Storms, Tornadoes Hit Mid-Atlantic States While We In Vermont Keep Enjoying Quiet Weather. We Need Rain, Though.

A waterspout turned tornado
seen here damaging a 
beach resort on Long Island, NY.
Severe weather and tornadoes
hit the Mid-Atlantic states,
but we in Vermont stayed
on the quiet sidelines.

We in Vermont should be very thankful the weather system that just threw clouds across Vermont on Thursday didn't hit us head on.

The storm unleashed tornadoes, severe thunderstorms and flash flooding across the Mid-Atlantic states. 

A tornado ripped through Dover, Delaware of all places. A Kraft Foods plant was also damaged. Two hotels were badly damaged, and the city was strewn with broken trees, debris an downed power lines. Streets were flooded.  Miraculously, no injuries were reported. 

On Long Island, in Nassau County a waterspout came off of Reynolds Channel from Far Rockaway, Queens, and came ashore at a beach club. About 30 cabanas at the Sun and Surf Beach Club were damaged or destroyed by the likely tornado.  Luckily, there was only one minor injury, to a worker at the beach club. A state of emergency was declared in Nassau County because of the likely tornado.

Another possible tornado hit the city of Columbia, in central Pennsylvania, partially collapsing several buildings. 

Up here in Vermont, of course we were bystanders to all that, thank goodness. The clouds were a bit thicker than forecast, but not by much. Some rain actually worked its way into far southern Vermont, with Bennington reporting 0.2 inches. So a bit of needed water down there.

It seems like it's getting kind of dry here in Vermont, despite the scattered, sometimes even violent thunderstorms we've seen this month. The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, has expanded the area of abnormally dry conditions in the Northeast Kingdom. That dry area now encompasses nearly a third of the state.

"Abnormally dry" is a condition that is just shy of a drought. 

Not much rain is in the forecast, either. As usual, let's get into the daily forecast

TODAY

It still looks like today will be the pick of the week in terms of weather conditions. We started the day quite cool, with dawn temperatures within a few degrees either side of 50 amid the usual patches of fog.  Autumn is creeping up on us. 

The day will turn out gorgeous, with mostly sunny skies, low humidity and highs well into the 70s, possibly near 80 in the warmest valley floors. Then, we enjoy Another clear, cool nigh.

SATURDAY 

Increasing clouds but still nice, highs in the 70s to near 80. A couple light showers could work their way into southern and eastern sections of the state during the afternoon and evening. 

SUNDAY

A risk of showers, but unfortunately, it looks like soaking rains will go by to our west and to our east. One low pressure system will move northward west of here, going through the eastern Great Lakes into western Quebec. Another, small but potentially wetter system will move northward near coastal New England and then head toward Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. 

Vermont will be caught in the middle. Which mean we'll have clouds and a shower risk, but light amounts of rain since most of the energy to produce downpours will be to our west and east. 

That said, a few showers could have locally moderate to briefly heavy rain, but that will only hit a small percentage of us. As it stands now, it looks like most of us will have a quarter inch of rain or less. There might be little more than that in far southern parts of the state.

MONDAY

The two storms I mentioned above will consolidate in northern Quebec. That will send cool, sort of moist air down in our direction. That means partly to at times mostly cloudy skies both days. Light showers should be scattered about, especially in the north and in the mountains. 

The cool north flow won't grab as much cold air as it could this time of year. Sometimes this weather set up keeps daytime temperatures in the 60s. Instead, we should be mostly in the 70s, with some 60s in the Northeast Kingdom

 

Trump Cheating Blue States With Disaster Relief

Vermont received FEMA disaster aid after the 
catastrophic July, 2023 floods, shown here. But that
was during the Biden administration. If another 
flood happened now, Trump very likely wouldn't
approve disaster aid because too many 
Vermonters voted against him. It's Trump
disgusting retribution against perceived enemies

 Things have gotten so bad that if a disaster strikes your blue state, you won't get assistance because the Orange Cockwomble, Donald Trump is butt hurt you didn't vote for him.

As Politico reported on July 29,  Trump earlier this summer overruled his own agencies when he denied disaster aid for four Democratic-led states.

The latest issue involves New Jersey, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, who were seeking federal disaster funds to help recover from a massive, record-breaking blizzard this past February.

FEMA field offices verified that the damage qualified for disaster assistance, but Trump overruled them. Presidents have sole authority to grant disaster relief to states, but historically, until Trump, presidents never overruled the field offices. 

Presidents Since George W. Bush and before Trump approved all 69 state requests for snow assistance, except for one, Politico reports. The one denial was because FEMA funds had been mishandled. 

This is a continuation of Trump ignoring disasters in Democratic-led states. Politico says Trump has rejected disaster aid for Democratic-run states at the highest rate in the entire 47-year history of FEMA. Meanwhile, Trump has approved nearly 90 percent of disaster aid requests from states run by Republicans. 

Politico continues: "He approve just 23 percent of disaster funding requests from states with a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators since returning to office 14 months ago. For states with a Republican governor and two Republican senators, it's the opposite - Trump has approved 89 percent of their requests."

In all previous administrations, there has been no discernible bias in presidential disaster declarations.  Democratic and Republican-led states got equal treatment. Until Trump. 

Interestingly, during the first Trump administration, his pattern of approving disaster assistance almost exactly matched previous administrations. It was only during the current term that the disparity became apparent. 

Since taking office for his second term, the Associated Press says Trump has approved 65 requests for major disaster declarations and denied more than two dozen others. 

On top of all that, Trump is taking longer to declare disasters than any other presidential administration.

Trump's spokesperson Abigail Jackson, wrote, "There is no politicization to the President's decisions on disaster relief."

Riiiiiight.  

Jackson also explains the slow approval on Trump conducting a more thorough review than any administration before him.  Yes, of course, sure. Can I do a rolling eye emoji here?

Democrats in Congress have asked the Government Accountability office to look into the criteria of how FEMA determines whether to recommend disaster declarations from Trump. But even if there's some sort of smoking gun at FEMA, that won't stop Trump from politicizing all current and future disasters. 

Two of the most recent disasters to hit the United States were the severe floods in Indiana and the extreme wildfires in and around Spokane, Washington.  Indiana is a red state. Washington is a blue state.

Two different states, two different disasters. But both have caused a lot of heartache and loss for residents of those states

Will Trump help Indiana and snub Washington? My guess is yes. 

It should be obvious to everyone except Trump and his minions that economically strapped individual, towns and states can't handle mega disasters on their own. But Trump only cares about himself. 

We knew that before he became president. But too many Americans didn't care, and here we are. 

 

Vermont Continues To Be Blessed By Great Late Summer Weather, But Rain Would Still Be Nice

A storm looms north of St. Albans, Vermont late yesterday
afternoon. Only a few places in far northern Vermont 
got some rain yesterday. 
Photo by Jeff Modereger.

As expected, any showers and storms pretty much stayed near the Canadian border yesterday and last night. 

One downpour just missed my house in St. Albans, Vermont during the late afternoon, which is too bad, because now I have to rig up the hoses to water the gardens. 

Especially since no rain is anticipated until Sunday, and that rain at this point does not look impressive. 

Other showers and isolated thunderstorms ran right along the Canadian border in New York and northwest Vermont late in the evening.  But again, most of us missed out.  On the bright side there was no severe weather. 

As always, let's get into the Vermont dailies

TODAY

We started out this morning with comfortable temperatures in the 50s, with the usual patches of early morning fog, especially in the river valleys. Otherwise, the mostly clear skies we're starting out with today will become more cloudy by afternoon. Mostly high clouds, especially north. 

The weather system that caused renewed flooding in Indiana and Ohio yesterday and last night is passing to our south, and that's what's throwing the clouds our way. There's a slight chance of light showers near the Massachusetts border this evening. But nothing major.

FRIDAY

Friday still looks like the pick of the week. After another comfortable dawn with those patchy areas of fog again, we'l have sunny skies, low humidity, with highs in the 70s to near 80. Can't get much better than that. 

SATURDAY

We continue the trend we've had this summer of nice Saturdays, at least in northern Vermont. More morning fog, then sunshine, highs again in the 75 to 82 degree range. Some clouds might increase in the afternoon.

Further south, the clouds will probably come in on Saturday sooner than in the north, and there could be some afternoon showers. So head north if you want the nicest weather. 

SUNDAY

There is a chance of showers, but Vermont might get cheated out on soaking rains. At this point, it looks like one storm will take some decent rains northward through western and central New York and into western Quebec.

Another little coastal low looks like it will bring another batch of heavy rain, or at least heavy-ish rain northward through the eastern half of New England. 

Vermont will be in the middle, with much less rain. There's still a chance things could rearrange themselves so that the rain comes down a little harder, a little more beneficial. 

It should be warm, with highs in the low 80s. It will also be a little warm humid.

MONDAY

Cooler, with a risk of remaining showers. Not sure how cool yet, but it could be another hint of autumn. 

Hawaii Starts Cleanup After Enormous Hurricane-Related Floods

Damage from Hurricane Lala in Hawaii. The storm 
brushed past Hawaii Sunday, causing widespread damage

The center of Hurricane Lala ended up just missing Hawaii on Sunday,  but it still left a mess on the chain of islands. 

At least one person died and left tens of thousands of people without power after the storm caused high winds and especially catastrophic flooding on many parts of the island chain

 As PBS reports:

"Laupahoehoe, on the northeast coast of the Big Island, saw the heaviest recorded rainfall at 43.54 inches. The highest winds were atop the towering Mauna Kea volcano, where gusts hit 140 mph. At the lower elevation, residents all across the island chain experienced tropical storm force winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph. 

The storm felled trees and power lines and caused serious flooding that swept some 100 homes from their foundations on the Big Island, authorities said. Gov. Josh Green said Sunday that no one is believed to have died when the homes washed away." 

Green said the flooding was more destructive than the wind. "It's the flood and the mud and the rock that poured through Naalehu, Pahala, Waiohinu..... These communities have a lot of cleanup to do and they're going to need a lot of support."

Hurricane Lala was on course to hit the Big Island of Hawaii, which would have made it the first time that's happened since 1871. However, it passed about 30 miles south of the island, The sprawling storm was still more than big enough to spread havoc through the Hawaiian islands.

Hurricane Lala weakened to a tropical storm once it got past the Big Island as it continued westward. However, once past the islands, it intensified again. Lala has sustained winds of 125 mph this morning at a position well west of Hawaii. 

The water is usually warmer west of the islands, which helps explain why the hurricane re-strenghened  Very warm ocean water is jet fuel for hurricanes.The hurricane is expected to turn northward and weaken again 

The eastern and central Pacific Ocean is at or near record warm temperatures, thanks to a combination of climate change and El Nino.  That makes the Hawaiian islands more vulnerable to hurricanes than usually. Historically, the water near the island chain has been relatively cool, which usually weakens tropical storms and hurricanes when they approach the state. 

Video:

Video from Jonathan Petramala gives a great summary of how much water and wind swept the Big Island. Click on this link to view, or if you see the image below, click on that.

 

Mostly Quiet Vermont Week Continues, Possible Storms Northwest This Afternoon; Weekend Rain Questions

I had a dream last night that Vermont was raked by
extreme tornadoes, like the one pictured, along
with extreme floods and August snow. Happily
for all of us, we're in the midst of a relatively
uneventful weather week. Though there could
be a few storms north late today. 

 The fog was a little slow to clear in some areas of Vermont yesterday, but it did clear, leading to a partly cloudy, seasonable day. Hope you enjoyed it!

Since we don't have much weather excitement, I have to tell you about one of my strange dreams last night. (I have vivid, weird dreams on a nightly basis).

In the dream, El Nino triggered a massive, unprecedented late August storm in the Northeast. 

Everybody in New England, including here in Vermont,  was told to expect a swarm of powerful EF-5 tornadoes, followed by hurricane force winds, rains that would cause epic floods followed by several inches of August snow. 

I'm extremely happy to report that I guarantee we won't see anything dramatic like that this week. Or any week. Sure, climate change and El Nino are making weather more extreme, but nothing like that!

Instead, were happily stuck with a week of fairly nice, mostly uneventful
weather, but with a few hiccups here and there. 

The first hiccup is today.

REST OF TODAY

We are still expecting that dying cold front to make its way toward us this afternoon, from the northwest. 

I'm a little gun shy now when I bring up a chance of thunderstorms. After last week, when it seemed any little thunderstorm would blow up into something severe, I don't want to relax too much about the chances of high winds or other problems with any thunderstorms. 

That said, the deck is stacked against severe weather. As this morning's National Weather Service forecast discussion points out, there is some wind aloft that thunderstorms could potentially use to create gusty winds down here where we live. But a lack of instability, dry air aloft and some showers in Quebec this morning will all work against any storms taking advantage of those winds aloft. 

To quote the National Weather Service/South Burlington office: "Strong to severe storms are not likely today, but cannot be completely ruled out."

Sigh.

If any storms happen, they're most likely in northern New York and the far northern Vermont, especially the northern Champlain Valley. Even those late afternoon and evening showers and storms will be hit and miss, so not everybody in this zone will get wet.

The further south you go, the less chance of rain. Everybody, or almost everybody in southern Vermont gets nothing. Overall, it'll be a typical August day, with highs near 80 degrees with moderate humidity.

THURSDAY

There might be some clouds around in the afternoon, but overall it'll be a nice day, as highs get well into the 70s. There could be a sprinkle over the northern mountains and Northeast Kingdom, but it won't be nearly enough to ruin this cool-ish August day.

FRIDAY

We'll be off to a cool start with patchy early morning fog.  Most places will be in the low 50s as dawn breaks, with the chillier valleys in the upper 40s. The fog will burn off to reveal the pick of the weather week, Highs will reach the 70s to near 80 under sunny skies and low humidity.

SATURDAY

Another nice one, as it looks now. Sunshine, with maybe some afternoon clouds It'll be up near 80 degrees.

SUNDAY

The next weather system arrives. It looks like the day might be showery, especially later on. But the amount and location of the rain, along with the timing of it, are still in the iffy stage. However, this doesn't look like a serious, scary storm at this point

 

Another Foggy Vermont Morning; Rest Of Week Looks Quiet

The sky looked ominous over St. Albans, Vermont 
yesterday, but nothing much came of it. Very
little rain fell in most of the state, except
for a few places in Addison and Orange counties, 

As usual, there were winners and losers with the rain Sunday night and Monday, but mostly losers. 

The majority of us got less than a quarter inch of rain, with some people getting scarcely anything at all. Burlington reported just 0.08 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge here in St. Albans saw 0.11 inches. 

However, the weak cold front yesterday slowed to a crawl or even stalled across central Vermont yesterday afternoon and evening, so rain became generous in parts of that region. Sections of Addison County had over an inch of rain.

Parts of Orange County came in with the big win. Corinth reported a whopping 2.6 inches of rain and Newbury had about two inches. 

The lingering humidity, the rain showers, and last night's calm winds left us with another early morning of dense fog across Vermont. That will have lifted or be in the process of doing so by the time you read this.  Though a few places will take time to lose the low clouds and fog, and it could take until mid -morning to clear in some spots.

It'll be a quiet week as subtle signs of autumn begin to emerge. The swamp maples look reddish. Some sugar maples with salt damage near busy roads are sporting colorful leaves. Backyard gardens are starting to look ragged.

And it will be another week in the air will certainly feel summery and warm  enough. But most nights will be somewhat cool. Nights are longer now, so there's more time for the temperature to drop.

Early morning's patchy fog, itself a sign of autumn will be a risk many mornings. It's still summer, but it's beginning to fade. 

The details:

TODAY

After the fog disappears, the day will be decent. Partly sunny, highs near 80 with moderate humidity. The dew point will be in the low 60s, so you might feel just the slightest feeling of stickiness to the air. I suppose there's an outside chance of a brief shower over the mountains and in eastern Vermont but the vast majority of us should stay dry.  

WEDNESDAY

After a comfortable sleeping night, sunshine should boost us back to near 80 degrees by afternoon, says the National Weather Service. Those meteorologists are still watching a dying cold front that will be approaching us from the northwest in the afternoon and evening. 

That front could set off some showers and maybe a few garden variety thunderstorms in northwestern Vermont. Those showers are likely in the far northwest, with hit and miss chances in the rest of northwest half of the state. Areas to the south and east should get nothing. 

Those who do get rain won't get much, except for maybe one or two towns far northwest that get a real thunderstorm.  This front looks like a nothing burger as it washes out and dies overhead Wednesday night. So sad. 

THURSDAY-SATURDAY

Fingers crossed we have a gorgeous stretch of weather coming this way. Skies should be generally sunny, though a few clouds and isolated showers might linger on Thursday and skies could start to cloud up a bit Saturday afternoon Also, that patchy early morning dense fog might be back, too.

But the humidity will be low. Mornings will start out in the comfortable 50s and end up near 80 again in the afternoon each day. Late August can be a slightly warmer version of the pleasantness of September, and it looks like we'll have an example here. 

SUNDAY-MONDAY

The rain risks returns on these days, but it's still anyone's guess on how much we get and who gets the most.