Dolly Parton Was Generous During Weather And Climate Disasters, Too

Dolly Parton, who died Tuesday at the age of 80, was
a generous philanthropist who gave away millions
of dollars. That included money to victims of 
weather and climate disasters. 

We're all reeling from the passing of Dolly Parton, that bundle of energy and joy, who, with her thoughtful songwriting, her exuberant public image and her philanthropy, made her an absolute national treasure. 

Her generosity has been widely reported.  The most cited example is her Imagination Library, which has provided more than 300 million books to children in the United States and other nations. 

Parton stepped up when weather and climate disasters hit, too. Especially when they affected the area where she was born and raised. 

On November 28, 2016, a raging wildfire swept into Gatlinburg, Tennessee and surrounding areas of Sevier County, Tennessee. It caused 14 deaths, 130 injuries, burned 1,684 structures and forced, 14,000 people to evacuate from the East Tennessee mountain tourist destination.

Parton was on tour when the fires hit, and she called right after the wildfires and asked what can we do and bow quickly can we do it, said David Dotson, CEO of Dollywood Foundation in a 2018 interview.

As Blue Ridge Public Radio reported: 

"The My People's fund (part of Parton's philanthropy) gave $1,000 per month to about 900 families impacted by the fire - regardless of income - for six months. But the Dollywood Foundation received so many donations they increased the amount to $5,000 a month. They also opened an additional organization called Mountain Tough to help families on a case-by-case basis and clean up homesites." 

In total, $12.5 million dollars went to the people of Sevier County from the foundation." 

In September, 2024, the devastating floods from Hurricane Helene spilled over into far eastern Tennessee's the waters raged through neighboring North Carolina. The day of the floods, she announced $1 million donation, matched buy her Dollywood companies and their partners.  

Oddly enough, the next hurricane on the list of this year's Atlantic storms will be named Dolly. That wasn't a decision made upon her death. The hurricane names were planned out years ago. There is currently a weather disturbance in east-central tropical Atlantic Ocean that might or might not develop into Tropical Storm Dolly. 

Forecasters are unsure whether that storm will form, and if it does, how strong it might get and where it might go.

North Carolina Emergency Management said in a Facebook statement that if a Hurricane Dolly, or any other storm threatens your care, maybe we can help a neighbor, a friend, or a loved one prepare for the storm. Maybe we can buy stuff for someone's disaster preparedness kit,  all in the spirit of Dolly Parton's generosity. 

The following Dolly Parton quote can be applied to a storm or any other situation: "We cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails."

 

A Gorgeous Vermont Wednesday, Storm Risk Thursday And Another Sign Of Autumn?

A very of Jay Peak on a lovely late afternoon yesterday
as viewed from near Enosburgh, Vermont. 

 OK, Tuesday's weather wasn't bad at all, as a low morning overcast in parts of Vermont broke up into puffy clouds mixed with blue skies. And it was cool, or at least cool-ish, with a hint of autumn in the air.  

After a comfortable night, we have a beauty on the way to day, with sunshine, low humidity and comfortable afternoon temperatures into the 70s to around 80. 

Today will be the 17th day in a row with a remarkable stretch of steady temperatures. Daily high temperatures in Burlington have ranged only nine degrees between 73 and 82 degrees.

That steady streak might be slightly broken tomorrow. You't think that since we're headed toward fall, it would be a cool high temperature. Nope, it might be on the warm side. 

Here are the details on Thursday, since it will be kind of a busy day. 

THURSDAY

South winds will import warmer, more humid air into Vermont. The expected high temperature in Burlington is 84 degrees. That's nothing special for late August but still the warmest since August 9. 

A cold front will be approaching.  The combination of that front, the warmth and the humidity, as is so often the case in the summer, is a recipe for thunderstorms. Especially since the front will be approaching  during peak heating in the afternoon. 

As nice as this summer has been in Vermont, it's also been a stormy one, and it's looking like we have another round to go through.

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk, a one out of five alert level for severe storms. That means we might see some isolated instances of damming winds or hail Thursday afternoon or evening. 

The SPC even has us in a very, very low, but not zero risk of another tornado in Vermont. We've already had two tornadoes, and at least three close misses with tornado weather, the most recent of which was during severe weather in Franklin County back on August 10.

 It does look like there's a slightly higher chance of severe storms a little to our south, in central New York and eastern Pennsylvania, and we'll keep an eye out on whether that somewhat higher alert level moves north toward us. 

As always with these thunderstorms, it will be hit and miss. Some of us will get nailed with lightning, wind and downpours and others will be left out. In general, we'll probably only get a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a few spots getting cheated out of any rain at all, and a very few others getting a good inch of rain if they get hit by more than one thunderstorms. 

FRIDAY

Cold fronts bring colder air - duh! - so it will be cooler. It's still August, so don't reach for the ski parkas and ear muffs, it won't get that cold. Highs will be in the 70s, under partly sunny skies. There might be some lingering light showers, and the day may prove rather cloudy over the northern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. 

There might even be a rumble of thunder or two mixed with with the showers. But overall, rainfall will be light. The vast majority of us will get less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Some places will get nothing, or just sprinkles. 

And here's another subtle sign of autumn: The temperature in Burlington might go under 50 degrees Friday night and early Saturday for the first time since June 3.  This might among the longest times   spent Burlington has ever spent above 50 degrees on record, but it's not the record longest.

It was continuously above 50 degrees from June 6 to September 21, 2023, for instances. A few other summers in the past decade or two have had long stretches above 50 like this, but it used to be unheard of. We're living in a warmer world now.

SATURDAY

Our trend of lovely Vermont summer Saturdays continues. After a cool start (see above) with patchy fog in the valleys, it should turn sunny and mild, with low humidity once again.  At least if current forecasts are correct. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

So far, Sunday is looking like another gorgeous day before shower chances return on Monday. How the showers play out early next week is still a big question mark, but it's nothing to worry about for now. 

A Few More Vermont Showers, And Mostly Comfortable Weather For The Upcoming Week.

Shower clouds billow up over St. Albans, Vermont 
yesterday. Numerous, small thunderstorms raced
across northern Vermont during part of yesterday
afternoon, but they deposited little rain 

A mini-swarm of mini thunderstorms erupted over northern and central Vermont during the early and mid-afternoon. 

But the vast majority of people who wanted or needed a good soaking of rain for their gardens didn't get it. The downpours were small in area, and moved on almost as soon as they began. 

I heard occasional thunder here in St Albans, Vermont between 12:45 and 2:45 p.m, but collected a whopping 0.02 inches of rain. It remained dusty in the gardens once the sun came back out and I was out there watering to reverse the wilt.

It was a little cool out there, too, another sign that fall is on our doorstep,

I also noticed another little sign of autumn out in western New York over the past couple of days. 

In the summer,  Great Lakes water is cooler team the air above it. That arrangement is a cloud killer. All through the spring and summer, you'll often seen satellite photos showing absolutely clear skies over the Great Lakes and on the immediate shorelines. But just inland, the sky is cluttered with puffy cumulus clouds.

The only way you can get lake effect rains, (or snows!) is if the water temperature is warmer than the atmosphere above it. In this case, you'll often  see streamers of clouds and showers coming off the lakes. 

For the first time this season, the lakes were warmer than the air above. So, those lake effect showers cranked up over the past couple days.  At least it wasn't snow. 

It'll be a while before western New York - and Vermont - sees snow. It'll still be comfortable out there over the next several days. But it's getting more and more unlikely that we'll see another big heat wave this year. 

Let's get into it: 

 TODAY

A little more rain fell on some northern areas overnight. Not enough to really soak anything down, but OK. Anything helps if your garden or lawn is a little dry. 

For the rest of the day, we're still getting some influence from an old storm up on Quebec, so we do have a  risk of some showers through the day, especially north and mountains. 

Only some places will get rain, and those that do won't receive much. Those places that do see rain should have only less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Except maybe, just maybe in the far northern Champlain Valley. Showers have been a bit persistent there early this morning. 

 There is less of a chance of thunder today as yesterday, as the instability is a little less. 

It'll be another cool-ish day, maybe even a bit cooler than yesterday. Highs should only make it into the low and mid 70s. Maybe upper 60s in some northern high spots. Another sign that autumn is coming. to yet, but it's close. 

WEDNESDAY

Should be a really nice day. Sunshine, highs in the 70s, low humidity, you can't beat that. 

THURSDAY

The next weather front moves in during the day.  Ahead of the cold front, some warmer, somewhat humid air will come in. Nothing oppressive.  Just low 80s, and dew points in the 60s. 

Scattered showers and storms will arrive in the afternoon and continue into the evening. 

FRIDAY:

Lingering showers and cooler weather, as we get into another cool, slightly  unstable flow of northwesterly winds. 

SATURDAY/SUNDAY

So far at least, next weekend is looking good. The forecast can change, but for now, it looks like we might have yet another Saturday. And the good weather could last into Sunday. 

After that, forecasts are divided, but we might get our first cool, September-like batch of showers early next week. It's an uncertain forecast, so stay tuned. 

A Record Strong El Nino Is Underway. What Does That Mean For The Next Year Or So?

This map shows where sea surface temperatures are above or
below normal and by how much. The darker the shading, the
greater the departure from normal. As you can see, El 
Nino has super charged the warmth of the Pacific
ocean off the west coast of South America. 

 The strong El Nino is under way, but the real fun doesn't start until later this autumn or winter. 

 The El Nino is forecast to become the most intense one on record.
 

To set us up, we need to explain El Nino. 

It's a periodic warming of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. When it happens, it tends to warm the entire planet up. It also causes areas of extra storminess, and other areas of extra dryness around the world.

El Ninos are now happening on top of climate change, so it's a double whammy. Fossil fuel emissions are warming the Earth's atmosphere long term. El Nino is temporarily making it even worse. 

Even more troublesome, since the current El Nino is likely the strongest on record, the extremes will probably get more extreme. .

As ABC News reports, a typical El Nino usually brings warmer than normal temperatures across the northern tier of the United States, but the effect can be less pronounced over the Northeast. 

In the Northeast, there can be an uptick in nor'easters which can interrupt a relative warm winter with harsh winter storms. 

El Nino typically increases the odds of above-average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic and coastal areas of the Northeast as storms often move up the coast. Farther inland, drier-than-average conditions and less snow are more likely.

For Vermont specifically, we have a look back at Vermont El Ninos winters from WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consol.

The El Nino winter of 1957-58 was cold and snowy in the Green Mountain State, but that was an exception. Most El Ninos give us at least relatively warm winters. 

Very strong El Ninos in 1982-83 and in 1997-98 yielded winters that were slightly warmer than normal with below normal snowfall. However, the 1983 El Nino year gave us a very wet and snowy winter. The 1998 El Nino year brought Vermont's epic historic January ice storm. I'm not saying this El Nino will create another repeat of that ice storm, but it's potential evidence of weird weather here in Vermont. 

Then came a very strong El Nino in 2015-16. Snowfall was well below normal in Vermont that winter. And it was the hottest winter on record. 

Hottest on record, that is, until 2023-24. Another strong El Nino hit, and that became the hottest winter in Vermont, at least as measured in Burlington. 

There's no guarantee we'll have the same result. There could be other factors that give us a cold winter. So we'll just have to wait and see.

ELSEWHERE

The trouble spots during El Ninos are typically in the southern half of the United States. That means southern California in particularly might be in for flooding rains and landslides. Usually the Gulf Coast states endure frequent winter thunderstorms, flooding and tornadoes.  

Globally, since El Nino warms up an already climate-changed hot world, there's a very good chance that 2027 will become Earth's hottest year on record, beating the record set in 2024 during the previous El Nino.

Either drought' or crop-wrecked storms will likely hit some of the most productive food growing parts of the world. Political instability and income inequality are rising, thanks in large part to certain buffoons in the United States government.

The combination of El Nino, climate change food disruptions and political stupidity isn't necessarily the end of the world, despite what you read in some corners of social media. But it could lead to famine in some areas, deadly storms in other spots. People will unfortunately die because of all this. 

There is precedence for this. An El Nino in 1877 was the record holder until this year for the strongest El Nino. Global famines that year from weather disruptions killed 50 million people. 

It looks like the next year or so will not be a pleasant one for humanity. And those problems will in part go on past 2027.  So brace yourself boys and girls, you are in for some unpleasant surprises with the climate, your local weather, your pocketbook and your general sense of ease.  

Gary, Indiana Has Been Out Of Power For Nearly Two Weeks After Storm. Why Is It Taking So Long

A woman endures warm, humid weather outdoors in 
Gary, Indiana during nearly two weeks of power 
outages caused by storms. Therefore, no air
conditioning. Photo from the New York Times. 

On August 11, a horrible storm swept through northwest Indiana, including Gary, Indiana. Winds gusted to more than 90 mph. Countless trees collapsed across power lines. Gary went dark. 

Gary is still dark. 

As of Sunday morning, 28,000 homes and businesses were still without power, out of the 375,000 or so that lost electricity the day of the storm. People in Gary are unlikely to have electricity until Tuesday. 

In some areas, massive trees are still down and not cleared away. With the lack of power, people are running out of food and clean clothes.  Also, having no power is expensive if you're on a limited income. 

Everything in the freezer is destroyed and must be thrown out.  People have to go through the expense of finding laundromats for cleaning clothes. They have to drive a distance away to find a gas station that has power. Non-perishable food is more expensive. Workplaces are disrupted and closed, so some people aren't getting paid.

It has been very warm and humid in and around Gary since the August 11 storm, with nights being particularly sticky. Without air conditioning, sleep has become difficult.

Schools have also been closed in most of Gary, and other areas of northwestern Indiana. 

An NPR piece from Friday puts the danger in perspective:

"Courtney Page-Tab, an Indiana University Indianapolis professor who studies community resilience, said health concerns grow each day of a prolonged outage. With many people using generators poor ventilation can lead to carbon monoxide poisoning. In addition, those reliant on medical devices risk having them lose their charge, while refrigerated food once safe could pose health risks as it spoils

'Nine days is a long time for a community to be without power,' Page-Tan said." 

The winds in Gary reached 99 mph during the ferocious August 11 storm. Roughly 300 utility poles and 44 power transmission poles need to be repaired or replaced. And we're not even talking about the countless electrical lines that have to be hooked up again.

"These aren't simple repairs.... These are systems that are being rebuilt," said Melody Birmingham, an executive at NIPSCO's parent company. 

The frustration is widespread as it can get, though. Republican Indiana Gov. Mike Braun said the situation is "unacceptable' and the power company needs to "step up, take this seriously, and restore power now." 

 Gary is a majority Black city and was hit especially hard by the storms. Some Gary residents think they are being ignored, possibly for racial reasons. 

Birmingham, who is herself Black, said NIPSCO is not overlooking low income residents. She said rumors to that effect are coming from social media. "We have areas that are probably affluent where we still have customers out as well.....This has nothing to do with race orally type of division," she said. 

However, I have to wonder about Gary's infrastructure. The storm was clearly strong enough to wreck power poles and utility lines in the strongest, best designed systems. But I have to wonder whether Gary  with its predominantly black population and relatively low income, was ignored by NIPSCO's maintenance plan over the years. I wonder if prior negligence made matters worse in Gary. 

I hope somebody seriously investigates that. 

However, several other factors not related to society or racism were at work. 

This was a derecho, with an embedded tornado. Tornadoes have narrow paths of destruction. Had just a tornado hit Gary, there would have been power outages in just a section of the city. And since the area of tornado damage would have been relatively small, power would have been restored fairly quickly. 

But this was a derecho, which is an intense, widespread batch of thunderstorms covering a wide area. The 90+ mph winds took down trees over a huge area, plunging all of Gary and surrounding towns into darkness.

The storm was widespread, so of course the damage to utilities was. Which is part of the reason why it's taking so long to fix things. 

It had also been very wet in northwest Indiana before the derecho. Repeated rounds of torrential rains and severe thunderstorms softened the ground and weakened trees. When the August 11 storm hit, the winds had a much easier time knocking down the trees. Many of those trees tore down power lines as they feel.

All that said, the long power outage raises question as to how storms will affect underrepresented communities in the future. 

The U.S has an immense and growing gap between the rich and poor. It's the new Gilded Age, but this time it's worse. 

Affluent communities often have underground utilities, and if something goes wrong, repair crews are at their beck and call. 

In poorer communities, utility lines are frequently not maintained all that well. In the short term, an intense El Nino is helping make storms more ferocious. In the long term, climate change is doing the same. 

One byproduct of a warmer world could well be more and longer power outages, especially in low and moderate income communities. 

Utility companies have some options when it comes to girding for climate change storms. They can cut back vegetation away from power lines more aggressively.They can strengthen poles and equipment and build in greater redundancy in the electrical system.  

In the end, we're going to have this problem over and over again. The climate is getting more extreme, and the U.S is generally getting poorer and poorer at maintaining our infrastructure. 

Prepare for long periods without electricity in the coming years. 

Showery Vermont Sunday, Might Be Thundery Depending On The Atmosphere. So-so Weather To Start The Week

A hibiscus flower on my back deck blooms amid the
very steady temperatures we've had this month so far.

We had another nice comfortable day in Vermont Saturday, though, as expected it was nicer the further north and west you went. 

Skies were mostly sunny in the far northwest, but rather cloudy southeast. High were in the 70s to a couple 80 degree readings in the sunshine northwest. 

Today will not be so nice with showers and maybe a strong thunderstorm or two. More on that in a minute, but first, some weird Vermont climatology. 

Yesterday's highs spotlighted a remarkable steady trend in temperatures. In the twelve days since August 10 daily high temperatures have ranged only between 73 and 82 degrees, as measured in Burlington.  In that respect I guess you can call our recent weather boring. Especially since those temperatures are close to normal. 

WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consul recently noted on Facebook that this is the time of year that normally has the least day-to-day variation in temperature. Average is four or five degrees difference in temperature day to day in August. 

But this stretch has been much more than that, with just nine degrees difference over 12 days. The same period last year had high temperatures ranging between 70 and 98 degrees. So things aren't always this steady in August.  

I think the lack of variety in temperatures stems from the fact it's still summer. We don't yet have the powerful cold and warm fronts that make Vermont days wildly different between, say, Monday and Tuesday. 

Also, ground and water temperatures are near their peak this time of year, and that tends to moderate the temperature.

Remarkably, over the coming seven days, the National Weather Service says afternoon highs will remain almost within the range we've had for nearly two weeks now. Between now and next Saturday, daily highs in Burlington are forecast to range between 75 to 84.

For now, then, if you don't like the weather in Vermont, you have to wait much more than a minute for it to change. 

Unless you're talking about cloud cover and rainfall. For the next week or so, expect rain to pop up randomly from time to time. The sun will be in and out of the clouds. Here are the details. 

TODAY

Kind of a confusing day in the weather department. Here's why: Virtually everyone in Vermont should get rain today, but most of us won't see much of it. But a few places could have some heavy downpours. 

There's also mixed signals on whether any thunderstorms this afternoon and evening might get strong or not. 

As forecast, a storm is going by to our west, taking most of its heavy rain with it. But that storm is swinging a weather front our way. It'll come at us from the west. 

The timing is such that the best chance of showers and storms would be in the afternoon and early evening. That's the time of day with peak heating, which is great if you want strong storms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk - level 1 of 5 alert level - for severe storms. That would mean there would be a couple isolated incidents of severe weather in Vermont, but most of us will be fine. 

If any severe weather does get going in Vermont today, it would take the form of very local areas of damaging winds or hail.

Complicating the forecast is some showers this morning. Those showers were working their way northward through Vermont this morning. The patchy morning rain and overcast might be enough to squelch instability in the atmosphere. That, it turn would prevent most thunderstorms from forming. 

We'll just have to wait and see how it plays out, I guess. It won't rain all day, so you can get outside. If you are outdoors, especially on the lakes, head inside if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, or if you get a weather warning or special weather statement.

Highs today will once again be in the 70s to near 80, and it will feel a bit more humid than it's been

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Weak low pressure spinning in Quebec should keep clouds and the risk of mostly light showers going both days. In a flip flop from Saturday, southern Vermont valleys should see the best weather with more sunshine and a much lower chance of showers. 

Northern Vermont, especially in the Green Mountains, will see more clouds and a better chance of showers. Those areas could pick up another quarter to a third of an inch of rain. Not all that much, but anything is helpful while we await a soaking rain that's still not in the forecast.

Highs both days should be in the 70s with lows in the 50s. 

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

At the point, it's looking like a return to nice weather. Warm, too with highs in many places getting to 80 degrees. Thursday's forecast high in Burlington is 84, which isn't that wild for this time of year, but it would still be the hottest day since August 9.

The warmth on Thursday might be tempered by clouds arriving from the next weather system, so we'll see.

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

Another batch of showers looks to come through Friday. Those could linger into Saturday. So far, this systems does not look impressive

 

Today Is Another Nice Vermont Summer Day. Tomorrow Brings Showers, But Probably Not Enough

A pot of flowers enjoys this morning's sunshine in 
St. Albans, Vermont. We've been watering these
plants since  not enough rain has been falling from
the sky. A little rain is forecast tomorrow

 We promised a perfect Friday weather day and that is what we got. 

Nothing was wrong. Temperatures were perfect, skies were blue with just a few puffy clouds. And somehow, despite all the wildfires burning out West and in Canada, there was no smoky haze in the atmosphere. 

The weather for the weekend won't be as nice as yesterday. But the rest of today should be OK, and Sunday probably won't be a complete washout. 

I had a late night, so I'm doing my morning report really late so, let's get into it

REST OF TODAY

Sunshine should  generally hang on, as forecasters have delayed an expected increase in clouds. Some clouds will work in during the afternoon, but it should remain a nice one. Judging from this morning's satellite photos, southeast Vermont will likely have more clouds that the northwest part of the state. 

High temperatures should be within a few degrees either side of 80. 

SUNDAY

We're still lookin at two storms going past us, one to the east, one to the west. The weak coastal storm to the east will take almost all of its rain through eastern New England. The storm to the west, moving into Quebec, will take most of its rain through western New York and on toward Ottawa and north of that.

That western storm should swing a weather front toward us, leaving mixed opinions on how that will affect Vermont weather. The National Weather Service in South Burlington says instability in the atmosphere will be pretty lame, so if any thunderstorms do manage to get going they won't be particularly intense

Meanwhile,  NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms, meaning there could be an isolated storm or two that could produce damaging winds. Severe weather under this scenario wouldn't be widespread, but there could be a trouble spot or two

In any event, most of us won't get that much rain tomorrow afternoon and evening. Except for places that get bullseyed by a thunderstorm, we should expect a quarter inch of rain or less.

High temperature should get into the 70s and low 80s, and it'll feel little more humid than it's been lately. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY

The storm, such as it is, will swirl up on Quebec for a couple days, sending somewhat cool breezes and some moisture our way. That means partly to mostly cloudy skies and showers. Those showers should be few and far between in southern valleys, but pretty frequent far north and in the central and northern Green Mountains. 

The showers won't be particularly heavy. Northern areas might pick up another quarter inch of rain, while southern spots will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less. We could use much more rain than that, but I don't see any real soakers on the horizon.