Potentially Historic Vermont Heat Wave Now Underway. But We Escaped Severe Weather - So Far

Since it's so hot, let's do winter scenes. This is in
Burlington, Vermont's Intervale in December, 2023

Well, the bright side is Vermont missed out on the severe thunderstorms last night. We were worried some intense storms would roll down on us from Ontario and Quebec. They missed Vermont and went mostly through central New York yesterday and last night. 

They just missed the southwest corner of Vermont. Instead, we got a few non-severe showers and storms. 

But, I'm burying the lede of course. The hot weather is here, and it could be historic. (No. "lede" is not spelled incorrectly. It's journalism speak for the first sentence of an article). 

And that first sentence is hot. Burlington is now forecast to reach 100 degrees tomorrow. If that happens, it will only be the fifth time since the late 1800s that has happened. 

The clouds and showers yesterday held temperatures down. The humidity certainly soared, but the relatively coolness of last evening means we haven't really felt the effects of the heat. 

Until this morning. Temperatures are rocketing up and it should be miserable by afternoon. Here's the usual daily forecast rundown for this very unusual hot weather

TODAY

We start the day with a lot of sun, so now the the heat dome is in place, temperatures should rocket up. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is going for a high of 96 in Burlington today, which would tie the record set in 1911 and 2018.

It'll be in the 90s pretty much everywhere in Vermont today. That extreme heat warning stays in effect through Friday evening for the Champlain Valley, lowlands of southwest Vermont and the lower Connecticut River Valley. Those areas can expect heat indexes today, tomorrow and Friday to reach 105 degrees or even a little more. 

The rest of Vermont is under a heat advisory. That's because those areas might not quite meet the criteria  for an extreme heat warning as the heat index there would be a little under 105 degrees.

It doesn't really matter whether you're under an extreme heat warning or a heat advisory. It'll be very dangerous to do physical work outside today. And now's the time to start keeping tabs on heat-vulnerable people to make sure they're OK. 

The tired saying, "It's not the heat, it's the humidity" is partially true. It's the heat and the humidity. The dew point, a measure of how humid it feels, should be in the mid-70s in much of Vermont today. That's incredibly muggy and about as steamy as it could possibly get in Vermont. 

The next question is thunderstorms. I did see more of them lurking way up to the northwest of Montreal this morning. Those could come down and cause some trouble today. The heat and humidity could also cause sudden pop up storms around Vermont. I already saw a couple little ones appear out of nowhere a little after 8 a.m. today in northern New York. 

The glimmer of good news is if any form by afternoon, they might keep temperatures from rising quite as high as the forecasts indicate. 

The bad news is with all this heat and humidity around, something that starts as a small shower could blossom into a big, bad thunderstorm with damaging winds and torrential downpours almost within minutes. 

Keep your eye to the sky today, hopefully through a window in an air conditioned building. By the way, during heat waves like this, the threat of strong storms overnight doesn't go away like it usually does.  Big bad storms will be less likely tonight, but still possible. 

TOMORROW

The heat peaks. As noted, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 100 in Burlington tomorrow. The all time record high in Burlington is 101 degrees on August 11, 1944. It's been 100 degrees on July 3, 1911, June 19, 1995 and July 14, 1995. (Yeah, 1995 was a damn hot summer).

The all time hottest temperature in Vermont is an oldie, 105 degrees in Vernon, July 4, 1911.  I've been thinking that record is vulnerable in this age of climate change. I think a new statewide record will be established within the next few years. I don't think this heat wave will be the one to do it, but you never know. 

Still, the fact that tomorrow might well be Vermont's hottest day in 31 years is pretty impressive. 

Since the extreme heat and humidity will still be around, we do have to watch the possibility of strong or severe thunderstorms again. Like today, they will be hit and miss, but if you get hit by one, you'll know it. 

FRIDAY

It turns colder! The expected high in Burlington is 96 degrees. Yeah, still miserable. It'll get into the 90s across almost all the state again and the humidity will remain ridiculous. The effects of heat waves are cumulative We'll be in the third day of it by Friday, so those who are vulnerable to the heat will be really suffering by then .

If you know anyone without air conditioning who is elderly or has health problems, for gawd's sake check on them. And continue to "kidnap" them and bring them to fun, but air conditioned places. 

WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK

The heat wave ends, sort of, with a whimper. Starting Saturday or Sunday and continuing through the first half of next week afternoon highs will stop reaching the 90s and instead get well into the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. It will still be kind of humid. 

Since we all will have gone through a big, big heat wave, the moderately hot and fairly humid air will still have an effect on us. Continue making sure people are OK, because even typical summer weather can cause trouble after an intense heat wave 

As far as rain and storms go, forecasts beyond Saturday are all over the place, so flip a coin or something. We'll know more as we get closer to the weekend and next week. 

 

Q and A: Everything You Need To Know About This Big Heat Wave

AccuWeather released this map of the expected
maximum heat index temperature in the coming
days. 

Well, it's on. The Big American Heat Wave of 2026 is on in the Midwest and East. Maybe it will be one of several big ones this summer, maybe not. There's already been a bunch of hot weather elsewhere in the U.S. off and on. 

This one is getting a lot of attention across the nation, including here in Vermont. Following are answers to some FAQs about this heat wave. 

We get hot spells every summer. What makes this one so special?

True, there's big hot spells every year. But they are tending to generally get worse over the years as climate change continues. This particular one is getting extra attention because it's affecting so many people. At least 250 million people are under heat warnings or advisories at last check, according to AccuWeather. 

The heat is hitting the major media center in the East, so that captures the attention of news directors much more readily than something that might happen in the Plains or Rocky Mountains. It's also hitting during the Fourth of July weekend, when more people will be out and about, celebrating the holiday. 

Will this be the nation's worst heat wave ever, like the one recently in Europ?.

No, but it will be pretty bad. The European heat wave shattered all-time record highs in numerous cities and several countries in western and central Europe. 

This one in America will set records, but probably few if any all time records. Still, the forecasting heat is impressive. Dozens of daily record highs are threatened from Maine and Vermont south to North Carolina and west to Illinois. New York City is expecting its first 100 degree day in a decade. Highs in the 100s will extend fron New England to the Carolinas and through large swaths of the Midwest,

Many cities including some here in Vermont, might also have record high low temperatures, meaning those without air conditioning get little relief from the heat. 

Fourth Of July and the heat. Tell me why people are worried about that

Many people are out of their air conditioned homes and offices enjoying the holiday celebrations. They're out in the hot sun, not drinking enough liquids, drinking alcohol, generally not paying attention to their bodies. It's a recipe for heat stroke or heat related injuries. Also, when you're overheated, you aren't paying attention as much as you should, leading to the risk of injuries. With fireworks involved, this could mean some missing fingers or worse

OK, But I'm up here in Vermont, shouldn't we be immune from this kind of heat?

Often, we are. We're right next to Canada, after all, so it's easy for cold fronts to sweep in and keep the extreme heat and humidity in Florida and Louisiana, where it belongs. 

This time, the heat dome setting up in the East is sending Florida air all the way to Vermont. The air in terms of temperature will be as bad or worse than in Miami for at least a couple days.  The heat might taper off a bit toward the weekend and early next week, but not entirely go away. 

 OK, but how do I get used to this particular heat wave?

If you have air conditioning, use it, especially at night, despite the expense. A long heat wave lasting a few to several days can wear you out, leading to heat illnesses and other ailments. If you must work or exercise outdoors, do it at the crack of dawn when it is relatively cooler, compared to the rest of the day. 

Keep your fluid intake going all day.  Drink plenty of water, but not just water. Consume energy drinks, juices, watermelon, cucumbers, anything, "wet"  Have a nice "cold supper" instead of cooking and heating up the house. You know, cold meats, cheeses, vegetables, that sort of thing.  Try to avoid consuming alcohol, it ultimately makes the heat worse, even if it makes you forget about it a little.

What About my family?

Keep a close eye on the kids, so they don't get too hot. If you take the swimming anywhere, keep an eye on them constantly, even if there's lifeguards. Don't scroll on the phone to watch the latest makeover TikTok, please.  

In the car, run the air conditioning. When you stop to get out, even if the kids aren't with you, look in the back seat. That will get you in a habit to always look and get the kids out so they don't roast in the car. Every year we hear tragic stories of kids dying in hot cars. Don't let this be your kid.

Have the kids run around early the morning if they're up. Or later at night. Especially if your house does not have air conditioning, treat the kiddos to an air conditioned movie, museum or other such attraction. They'll love it and it will help their bodies recover from the heat. 

Should I worry about my dog during this heat wave?

Absolutely! Keep them in a cool place as much as you can. If you have air conditioning, encourage them little Roscoe to hang out there. They'll still need to go on walks to do their business and to sniff around. (That sniffing is very important for the health of a dog). Do the walks early in the evening before it gets hot. 

Don't let your dog walk on asphalt, concrete or other hard surface during the day. Those surfaces get wicked hot and can burn paws. 

What about Old Lady McCormick Next Door?

Check on her. A lot. Especially if she has no air conditioning, Heat can really take a toll on the elderly. In those big heat waves in Europe, most of the thousands of people who were killed were elderly. A heat wave similar to the upcoming one killed six elderly or disabled Vermonters. 

This is a stereotype, but I notice a lot of older Vermonters prize their independence and stubbornly refuse help. So lie to them. "I made way too much of this nice cold macaroni salad. I'd hate to see it go to waste."  Or, "I bought this nonrefundable ticket to the movies for tonight, but now my niece can't go. Why don't you go with us so we can use this ticket."

Just be extra nice to the elderly

Man, that neighbor of ours just mowed his lawn in this heat, and he looks awful! Should we do anything about it?

Yes, yes and double yes.

If he's headachy, nauseous, dizzy,  fatigued, weak, more irritable than usual, thirsty with heavy sweating, and his muscles are cramping up, he's probably got heat exhaustion. (Another symptom of heat exhaustion is decreased urine output, but you might not know that. 

Get him indoors to a cool place and encourage him to drink cool liquids (but not the glass of chardonnay you forgot to put down when you noticed Mr. Golf Course Lawn stumbling out there.  Take off his shoes and socks, even if they smell awful, and put cool, wet towels around his neck or elsewhere on his body. 

He also needs to go to the ER or Urgent Care to get checked out if symptoms don't improve within an hour. 

If your mowing buddy is confused, agitated, has slurred speech, nausea and vomiting, flushed skin, rapid breathing and a racing heart, chances are he's got heat stroke. This is a hair on fire emergency. Call 911 now if not sooner. 

Did climate change cause this?

Not really, but climber change probably made it worse than it otherwise would have been. There have always been heat waves and heat domes during the summer. What might have been a couple days near 90 degrees several decades ago has become a horrible excursion into the mid and upper 90s with near record high humidity levels. 

As I noted above, get used to it. Heat waves like this used to be really rare events. Now they're starting to get more common, so we'll be writing this Q and A a lot more in the future. 

Well, this all just sucks. When will it end?

It'll start to get better toward Saturday and Sunday, but "improvement" might be too optimistic a word. Temperatures toward Sunday and early next week will be in the 80s to maybe near 90, but not way up in the 90s. Humidity will still be high, but not as bad as it will be Wednesday to Friday. But still annoying.

As far as a big whoosh of cool, clear Canadian air, I don't see that happening anytime soon

 

Dangerous Heat, Humidity Blast Into Vermont Today For An Extended Stay, Severe Storm Threat Looms, Too.

Heat risk map for Thursday. Purple is extreme heat and dark 
red is major. It's rare to have so much purple in this
map, Note the flecks of purple here in Vermont. 

 We had one more nice, cool Vermont dawn today, with temperatures in the 50s as the sun broke over the Green Mountains. 

Yesterday was warm, for sure, but not humid, so the lack of moisture in the air let things col off overnight. 

Going through the next several days at least, you'll want to take it very easy, keep hydrated, and make sure your neighbors and relatives are OK. 

Let's get into the updated day by day outlook.

TODAY

The hot, humid air is at our doorstep, and will flood in today. The dew point, an indicator of how sticky the air feels, was in the comfortable 50s early this morning. Those dew points will be in the icky mid 60s to around 70 by late afternoon, and it will only get worse from there. 

Most of us will get into well into the 80s today with the hottest valleys maybe touching 90 degrees if it stays sunny enough. If it hits 90 in Burlington today, that would probably be the start of five consecutive days in the 90s. 

Heat waves that long or longer have only happened 16 times in Burlington since the late 1800s. 

The forecast for the increasing heat is certain, the forecast for thunderstorms is not. 

As we've noted the past few days, we'll be prone to batches of thunderstorms diving down from Ontario and Quebec. And since the air will be so hot and humid over the next few days, a few homegrown strong storms could pop up, too.

For now, as of early this morning, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has most of Vermont under a slight risk, level two of five of severe storms today and tonight. They also have - once again - a low but not zero chance of a brief tornado, this time in northwest Vermont and northern New York 

This will get updated one way or another later this morning, as it's hard to predict the path and intensity of these packages of thunderstorms that will come through. Not only today and tonight, but through this heat wave. 

WEDNESDAY

The core of the heat wave arrives. Dawn will break muggy with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. An extreme heat watch is in effect for the Champlain Valley, low elevations of southwest Vermont and the lower Connecticut valley Wednesday afternoon to Friday evening. That means the heat index is expected to be at or above 105 degrees during this spell. 

This will almost definitely be upgraded to an extreme heat warning soon. Such a heat warning only applies to heat indexes of 105 or above Since the rest of Vermont away from the hotter valleys will "only" see a heat index in the 100 to 105 degree range, they'll probably fall under a heat advisory soon. 

As far as actual temperatures, highs tomorrow should be in the low to mid 90s, with the hotter readings in the warmer valleys. Dew points will rise to the mid 70s, which is fairly rare for Vermont. The weather tomorrow and Thursday will be typical for a Florida July. Or even worse than that.

Orlando, Florida yesterday had a mid -afternoon temperature of 92 with a dew point of 74. Mid-afternoon tomorrow in Burlington is forecast to bring a temperature of 95 and a dew point of 75.

Burlington will very likely have one of its top ten worst heat indexes on record, and has a slight chance of breaking the all time heat index record of 111.4 set on August 26, 1948. The forecast peak heat index for Wednesday is 109, which would place it at #3 in the top 10 list of worst heat indexes the city has seen, at least since they started keeping track of such things in 1947.

The one potential saving grace is if thunderstorms bring the temperature down. Or, thunderstorms that had broken up send clouds our way, which would mean slightly lower temperatures but no relief from teak humidity. 

Again, it's impossible to predict the timing and position of the most concentrated thunderstorms tomorrow but they could happen anytime. Some storms could be strong again. With all this humidity, thunderstorm rains would be torrential perhaps enough to set off a highly localized flash flood,

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More of the same with probably the most intense heat on Thursday. For now the National Weather Service is going for a high of 98 in Burlington and Springfield, and well into the 90s elsewhere. There is a chance we could see a 100 degree reading or two.

How about this for a break: Friday should be cooler than Thursday, with highs only in the low to mid 90s. And the steamy air will continue. 

Nighttime lows Wednesday through Friday will be in the low to mid 70s in most of state with the stuffy air in place, Those without air conditioning won't see any real nighttime relief. Keep a close eye on your  elderly or ill neighbors that don't have air conditioning. This is dangerous for them 

.The extreme humidity will continue both days. As will the chance of thunderstorms, some potentially strong and/or torrential. If the storms, or clouds from distant storms cover the sky in the afternoons, high temperatures will be a little cooler forecast. 

WEEKEND AND BEYOND

Often, heat waves in Vermont end with a big whoosh of dry, cool, refreshing air straight from the friendly folks in central or northern Canada. That won't the case this time. 

Instead, temperatures will slowly drift downwards, Highs would still be near 90 on Saturday and in the mid and upper 80s Sunday and Monday. Humidity will stay high, too, but not quite as terrible as this week will be, 

But since the effects of heat waves accumulates in people as the days go by, this allegedly "cooler" air won't be enough to help people who endured the heat without air conditioning, You'll still want to make sure your elderly friends and neighbors are OK.  

 

Heat Wave Still On For Vermont, Rest Of Easter U.S. Uncertain Chances For Vermont Severe Storms

Looking north from St. Albans, Vermont, showers and a few
thunderstorms could be seen trying to develop in Quebec
but dry air and a lack of instability made them sputter.
However, during our upcoming heat wave, we will
need to look toward Quebec as that's where potential
severe or torrential thunderstorms would come from.

 After a gorgeous and quite warm Sunday, today will be your last day for quite awhile to enjoy tolerable weather in Vermont. 

It'll be even warmer than yesterday, with the banana belt valleys expected to reach the upper 80s. The dew point, a general indicator of how humid it feels, will be near 60 today, so it will feel slightly more humid than Sunday. 

Then the fun really begins. Even though we know it will be hot and very humid this week and that thunderstorms are a good bet, there's still questions about exactly how hot it will get in Vermont. 

There's even bigger questions as to the extent of the thunderstorms. We do have  a risk of severe storms and localized flash flooding. Let's taking it day by day, as we usually do. 

We already covered today, so let's start with:

Tuesday.

You'll feel the air get noticeably more humid and icky as the day goes as the heat dome starts to assert itself. Because of some cloud cover, we'll probably fall short of 90 degrees in most of the state. But by late in the day, the dew point should be near 70 degrees, so it will feel steamy for sure

As we've been mentioning for the past several days, we'll be prone to those packets of "ridge runner" thunderstorms coming up and over the northern edge of the heat dome and then coming down across Vermont from Quebec.

Figuring out what time theses storms would come through aad exactly where they hit is futile more than a few hours in advance. If any of these come through tomorrow afternoon or evening, some could be severe with strong damaging winds, hail and torrential rains. 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center a marginal, level 1 out 5 risk of severe storms in Vermont and New York.  The SPC says all the ingredients are there for big storms, but it just depends whether a trigger will set them off or not. 

"Trends in guidance will need to be monitored,:" the SPC said in its description of the threat. That's NOAA speak for we might have to upgrade the risk lel, but we want to see more data before pulling that trigger..

If storms come through late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, they're less likely to be severe, but they would contain a lot of lightning, and worse, torrential downpours. We'll have to be on our toes for the risk of local flash floods

Wednesday

Hot and humid, with a storm risk at any time, especially in the afternoon and evening. In the past, we've often had loud, soaking thunderstorms around dawn in the opening day of big heat waves, especially in northern Vermont. So based on experience, there's a chance the day might start off pretty noisily. 

If storms come through in the mid and late morning and early afternoon instead, we would  hold temperatures down into the 80s to near 90 with horrible humidity. 

But the better chance is more storms would hold off  until later in the afternoon, which would mean highs in the low to mid 90s, with that steamy, stuffy air. 

The National Weather Service  in South Burlington is considering issuing heat advisories or warnings in Vermont. They're just waiting for more "guidance" as we mentioned above from computerized forecasting data.

Such torrid, steamy air gives us a chance of strong or severe storms and torrential rains. All we need is a trigger. Those "ridge runners" will still be a threat, diving down from Quebec. While you're roasting your butt off, be on the alert for severe storms and local flash flooding.

Thursday

Likely the worst day of the heat. Again, unless storms coming in during the late morning or early afternoon to block the sun, we will all get into the 90s. There's still a chance some valleys in southeast Vermont could touch 100 degrees. 

The ever-present chance of strong thunderstorms continues, but I'm guessing the chances of that are slightly lower Thursday. 

Friday.

Same exact story. 'Nuff said.

Weekend

It's either going to be very warm and humid but slightly more bearable or the torrid weather will continue. 

Some computer models drop daytime temperatures into the mid and upper 80s and send dew points down into the mid and upper 60s. That's an improvement, I suppose, but it will still feel icky and not what we hope for in a Vermont summer weekend. . 

Other models keep the 90+ degree heat going with ridiculous humidity. 

Either way, it looks like a weak weather front will lurk somewhere over us or nearby over the weekend, continuing the risk of severe storms an local flash floods.

So, yeah, we have a crappy week coming up in the Green Mountain State. Enjoy! 

 

Fascinating Time Lapse Of A Severe, Rotating Storm Over Rutland County, Vermont

Screen grab from a Jeffery Smith-created time lapse of a
rotating mini supercell thunderstorm last Friday. This is
looking north from West Rutland, Vermont. The lower
cloud over the slight ridge on the right side of the 
photo appears to be a possible wall cloud, which
can be a precursor ro a tornado, No tornadoes
occurred with this storm. 

That powerful thunderstorm last Friday that rolled through central Vermont and southern New Hampshire was unique. And we have video proof of just how cool that storm was. 

It developed near Ticonderoga, New York and by the time it traveled the short distance into northern and central Rutland County, it was rotating and spewing damaging winds and hail. 

The storm passed just north of West Rutland before thrashing Proctor and the north and east sides of Rutland with winds that tossed down trees and power lines. 

In West Rutland, photographer Jeffrey Smith, who does a lot of fantastic drone and surface shots in and around the town, captured an absolutely fascinating time lapse of the storm as it passed just to the north of West Rutland and slammed into Proctor. 

Here's the video. A description of what's going on is below.

The time lapse video is over West Rutland, looking north toward Hanley Mountain. The center of the storm is right behind the mountain. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington had issued a severe thunderstorm warning pretty much as it entered Vermont around the town of Benson. The severe storm warning was still in effect when this video was shot. 

Meteorologists had noticed broad rotation in the storm by the time it reached its position seen in the video. But correctly, in my opinion, they did not issue a tornado warning as the storm did not appear to be preparing to form one, 

However, the video shows the storm might have come close to creating a brief one. 

Despite the extremely high quality of Smith's video, it's hard to tell exactly what some aspects of the storm meant. 

As you can see in the time lapse, the storm was clearly rotating, left to right. Near the beginning of the photo, it seems like a spot with lower clouds might be spinning, but it quickly gets disrupted, probably an effect from Hanley Mountain .

Especially when you see a gush of rain start to come over the mountain, a lower cloud becomes much more visible on the right side of the screen. Toward the end of the video, that cloud lowers further, becomes more round shaped and clearly starts to spin. 

That to me really looks like a wall cloud.  If a real meteorologist wants to weigh in and correct me, please do! If a tornado were to form, a wall cloud is where it would originate 

When my alleged wall cloud started spinning, that's when radar would have seen the tightening spin, and the National Weather Service would have been tempted to issue a tornado warning. But the spin was probably between scans and was very brief.

The video cuts off, but it looks like that gush of wind and rain. would have destroyed the spin on the cloud, ensuring that this supercell remained just a severe storm. Many wall clouds do not produce tornadoes, and here was an example of that. 

Still, with this storm, Vermont could have had its fourth tornado of the year. But, thankfully, it didn't happen. 

My alleged wall cloud was over the western edge of Proctor when the film was taken. There was tree damage in Proctor, but that was due to straight line winds. 

Also, notice the trees at the very bottom of the film. You can see the wind is blowing toward the storm. That supercell was ingesting warm, humid air to keep it alive. 

The storm went on to produce straight line wind damage on the north and east sides of Rutland and in Mendon. The storm appears to weaken a bit after crossing the green mountains. But it regrouped, and continued on as a spinning supercell through central and southern New Hampshire, leaving a trail of wind and hail damage behind.  

Again, Many thanks to Jeffrey Smith for permission to use the video!

 

"Worst Ever" Heat Wave In Europe Makes Our Impending Muggy Spell Feel Like Sweater Weather.

People in France try to cool off during the recent
deadly, record shattering, climate-driven heat wave

 All kinds of record high temperatures have been afflict9ig Europe as a terrible, deadly heat wave as become entrenched in the region. 

Scientists who track climate and weather events say this is the worst heat wave on record for much of Europe. The hot weather would have been "virtually impossible" just a half century ago, but climate change has altered the equation.

The record highs are far too numerous to list, and it's almost impossible to keep up with them. Records for month of June and all-time record highs are being broken, and then the next day they're broken again. 

At last check, nations that set new all-time record highs were Luxembourg (105.3 degrees); Belgium (102 degrees); Netherlands, (102.9 degrees); Czech Republic (105.4 degrees).

Several other nations, including Slovakia, Poland, Austria, United Kingdom experienced their hottest June weather on record.

EUROPEAN HEAT WAVES DANGEROUS

Extreme heat in Europe is more dangerous than similar temperatures in the United States. There is little air conditioning in most of Europe. 

Only around 20 percent of European homes have air conditioning, compared to nearly 90 percent in the United States. 

Intense, long lasting heat waves are a relatively new thing in Europe, thanks to climate change. The architecture of the buildings are designed to keep heat in during long, cold damp winters. So they turn into ovens when long heat waves arrive. And the heat doesn't dissipate in the homes at night. 

 The architecture makes installing AC difficult. Energy costs in Europe are high, so people are reluctant to install air conditioning. 

Heat waves in recent years have killed thousands of Europe's. The current heat wave is blamed for 1,000 or so deaths in France alone. 

Intense, climate-driven heat waves began to hit Europe in earnest in the early 2000s. In 2003, Europe heat waves are estimated to have caused or contributed to at least 70,000 deaths. The hot summer of 2022 in Europe also led to more than 61,000 excess deaths, according to the journal Nature.    

This doesn't get much publicity, but heat waves are the biggest weather killer. I guess that's not noticed as much as it should because heat waves are not nearly as telegenic as hurricanes, tornadoes and floods. 

ROLE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

It's become widely accepted that these new, more intense and longer lasting European heat waves are being made worse by climate change. 

 According to World Weather Attribution, which assesses how climate change has influenced major storms and weather events, has this to say:

"In 1976, when some of the previous European records were set, the 2026 temperatures would have been virtually impossible to occur in June, while also highly unlikely at any time of the year. In 2003, the first major heat wave of this century, daytime heat like this would still have been very rare, about 10 times less likely that today, while nighttime temperatures such as this June would have bee more than a hundred times less likely in 2003."

World Weather Attribution calculated that a similar European in June to the one currently underway would have been about 3.5 degrees Celsius  (6.3F) during the day and 2 degrees Celsius (3.5F) cooler in 2003. Nighttime temperatures would have been about 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3F cooler at night in 1976 and roughly 1.3 degrees Celsius  (2.3F) cooler in June, 2003.

The organization also had this ominous statement: "This summer shows that at 1.4 C of global warming, extreme heat is already reaching the limits of our societies ability to cope. Our analysis here shows that intense heat is increasing rapidly even in living memory, with such events tens to hundreds of times more likely since only 2003 and virtually impossible just 50 years ago. 

A rapid phase-out of fossil fuels is critical if we are to avoid even higher temperatures and their consequences in the future."

That statement is something that should chill the heart, despite the intense heat outside. Here in the United States, an intense heat wave is about to strike the Midwest and East Coast. But the Powers That Be keep dismissing the danger, so they can remain in good favor with the fossil fuel industry. 

As Politico reports, U.S. Energy Secretary basically told heat-wilted Europeans to stop whining. "Always more people die in the winter than die in the summer, because cold is a vastly. larger killer than heat is," he said. 

It's true that more Europeans die from cold weather than hot weather. But deaths from hot weather are rising fast, but deaths from cold weather are holding steady or falling. In the United States, the annual death toll from heat exceed the of cold weather deaths. 

Overall, then, weather related deaths in Europe are generally rising. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Relief from the heat is now spreading across Europe. The change in the air is creating severe thunderstorms in some areas. The relief from the heat might not last long. Some forecasts move a new heat dome into western Europe starting in a roughly a week. 

 

Enjoy The Low Humidity, Extreme Humidity, Torrid Heat, Storms On The Way To Vermont

National Weather Service heat risk map for this coming
Thursday. Click on the map to make it bigger and 
easier to see. Purple is extreme heat and risk. Dark red
is major heat. I don't remember the last time I've
seen so much purple in the heat risk map. Also
notice the flecks of purple even in Vermont. 

Saturday was another perfect summer weather day in Vermont - mostly sunny, a nice breeze, low humidity some pretty clouds. 

This morning dawned clear and cool. Temperatures were in the 50s statewide.  Despite all the rain lately, we've had a fair number of days like this in the late spring and early summer this year.

One thing that I knew we'd lose eventually is the clear, unpolluted skies that allowed us an unrestricted view of the Green Mountains and hills, shimmering green as far as the eye can see.

Now, this morning, I notice wildfire smoke beginning to creep in. To nobody's surprise due to a deep drought in the Rocky Mountains, large wildfires have broken out, especially in Utah.  There's also fires burning in a long stripe from Alaska, through central Canada to central and northern Quebec. So far, it's not nearly as bad up there as in recent years, but they're burning.

The smoke has to go somewhere, and sometimes it ends up in New England.   

There is smoke visible on the satellite photos this morning in Quebec and northern Vermont. It's not enough to harm air quality, but the air will probably look kind of hazy, especially north. For the rest of the summer and into the early autumn, we are going to continue to see some hazy days because of this. Not everyday, but the chances of crystal clear air has diminished until autumn rains and snows really hit.

Smoke is the least of our worries at this point, though. We've got a volatile week coming up that features high heat, even  higher humidity and a volatile atmosphere that could trigger more rounds of severe storms. 

TODAY:

Another beauty. Sunshine with low humidity and highs in the low 80s most places, with a few upper 70s northern hills and maybe a few mid 80s in the warmest banana belt town in the Champlain Valley and southeast Vermont.  

So it'll be a perfect day to do anything Vermonty, hike, bike, hit the garden, play softball or frisbee,  go to the beach, fall asleep on a hammock, get a maple creemee. It should be illegal to stay indoors on a day like today. 

Like yesterday, you can even lay in a grassy field and watch the puffy clouds billow up over the mountains. You know, that cloud looks like a dog, that other one looks like an ice cream cone, that third cloud looks like Weird Al Yankovic. You get the idea.

The only potential problem is a very weak disturbance that could touch off an isolated shower or garden variety thundershower near the Canadian border. No biggie.

MONDAY

One last nice day. Dawn will bring more cool air, with temperatures in the 50s to around 60.  Under sunny skies, it will get well into the 80s Warmer towns will be around 87, 88 or even 89 degrees, so pretty damn warm. But the humidity will stay low, so it will be quite tolerable out there.

TUESDAY

A transition day as the hot, humid air begin to roll in. Dawn might still be comfortably dry, but by afternoon and evening you should really start to feel the humidity. Highs should get into the 80s again. No 90s yet because of clouds and a risk of showers and thunderstorms. 

WEDNESDAY. 

A real wild card, with some questions in the forecast. Will the hot air really get in here full force? Meteorologist are leaning toward a  "yes" answer. If it does, temperatures will soar well into the 90s. Since we'll be near the edge of the torrid, muggy air, instability in the atmosphere could be almost off the charts. Some high altitude, shifting winds could enter the picture. If that happens, we could be looking at severe thunderstorms. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington notes that some models keep the hottest, most humid air off a little to our southwest Wednesday. In that case, it would still be very warm and somewhat humid, but not killer hot and without the lightning bolts, dark clouds and potential high winds nipping at our heels.

THURSDAY

This is the day Vermont is most likely to take par in the nasty heat dome that's setting up. Many cities in the Midwest and up and down the East Coast should get over 100 degrees. The forecast high Thursday in Boston and New York is around 103. Washington DC is forecasting 104. 

I wouldn't be surprised if a 100 degree reading or two snuck in to southeastern Vermont. If that happens, it'll be two years in a row with 100 degree heat in the Green Mountain State. Such heat is rare, but I guess it's becoming less so in our age of climate change.

Forecasts have the rest of Vermont well into the 90s. As of today, forecasted highs Thursday are 97 in Burlington, 95 in Montpelier, 96 in Rutland and 98 in Springfield. 

The only caveat to this is there are almost always weak ripples of energy in the atmosphere. If one comes through Thursday afternoon, that would spark a bunch of thunderstorms that would cool the air a little but do nothing to help with the humidity. 

FRIDAY

Temperatures are forecast to be in the 100s again up and down the East Coast. Vermont might get vague relief from an approaching very lame cold front that would hold temperatures down to the low 90s. Um, yay? We'll wait and see on that. 

I'm sort of making light of all this heat coming out way, but seriously, this will be dangerous. Nights will be very warm and muggy, offering little relief from the daytime torrid weather. This state of affairs goes on for at least a few days The cumulative effects of the hot air over days can kill vulnerable people .

Unfortunately deaths from the heat are already a foregone conclusion in the Midwest and East due to the extreme nature of the upcoming hot spell. Let's hope the victims don't include Vermonters. 

NEXT WEEKEND

A potential "cold snap"! By that I mean daytime temperatures would "only" reach the 80s to around 90 with continued rather high humidity.