Snow In Vermont Mountains This Morning. It's Clearing Up, But Summer Weather Remains Days Away

Snow at the measuring stake near the top of
Sugarbush Resort, Vermont, elevation
 about 4,000 feet as snow dusted the 
peaks of New England overnight. 
 

 Our impressive and cold storm that came at us from Canada is winding down, and yes, it did snow in the mountains. 

I was checking out web cams, and the cameras that aren't frozen solid at summit definitely showed snow. 

The Bolton Mountain web cam showed wind-blown flurries early this morning. The Heaven's Gate web cam atop Sugarbush Ski Resort, at about 4,000 feet elevation showed a solid coating of snow 

The rainfall from this storm was impressive for what should be a cold, dry storm from the Arctic. The dynamics in this thing were incredible and were really able to wring the moisture out of the air. 

Montpelier has had at least 1.37 inches - it was still raining lightly there when I checked. St. Johnsbury clocked in at 1.73 inches. I'm betting we'll have a couple places in the Northeast Kingdom go over two inches. 

Enough rain fell around the White Mountains that a flood warning was issued for the area around Conway, New Hampshire. The Saco River there was expected to reach minor flood stage there. 

Weather geeks like me were fascinated by this storm. It was tiny in area, but it has been a powerhouse. While it was still in Quebec, the storm formed a cold front of sorts that managed to sweep a line of some strong thunderstorms through parts of northern New York and Vermont. Radar indicated outflow winds of 50 mph or so over Lake Champlain.

The "cold front" became more south to north oriented or even southeast to northwest oriented over eastern Vermont. That tapped a moisture source from the Atlantic Ocean, helping to explain the heavy rains. 

Further west, there was a sharp cutoff in the amount of rainfall. Burlington has 0,6 inches of rain. Plattsburgh had a little under a half inch. 

The storm was pulling away to the south and east as of 9 a.m. this morning, taking its precipitation with it. 

REST OF TODAY

Radar mage of the storm last night at around 10:30 p.m.
The center of the storm was about over Montreal
at the time. 

It's actually going to be a fairly nice day after the rest of the rain stops this morning. It was already sunny and breezy here in St. Albans as of 9 a.m. That trend will cover the entire state today. 

It'll feel like the end of April instead of the end of May. Temperatures should stay in the mid and upper 50s, with maybe a couple low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

SUNDAY

Another disturbance will come in from the north much like last night's did. But this one will be much weaker. 

We'll just have increasing clouds with a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs should get well into the 60s, but that's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: More cool weather, more showers as a deep dip in the jet stream stays over or just east of New England.  Much of the time will be dry, and highs will e in the 60s to near 70

BEYOND TUESDAY. It looks like the deep dip in the jet stream might evolve into a cut off low near or just off the East Coast. A cut off low is a storm that meanders around, not moving north because the jet stream has moved off to the north. The jet stream being to the north, there's nothing to push the storm along. 

Fingers crossed, the cut off low will hopefully be too far south to bother us. If that forecasts pans out, then the second half of the week would be dry and warm. 

Actually It's Going To Be TWO Rainy, Chilly Spells In Vermont. The First One Tonight Is The Snowy One

The blooming irises and budding peonies in low elevation
St. Albans, Vermont certainly don't have to worry about
snow tonight, but Vermont's mountain summits could
well be white by Saturday morning. 

We're still on for our weird, cold storm tonight, but different parts of Vermont will have very different weather conditions. 

Here's the latest updates:

SNOW

Forecasters have actually lowered the elevations at which they expect snow to fall tonight. They now expect snow as low as 3,000 feet above sea level, taking the flakes pretty far below summits. 

This won't be a big summit snowstorm by any means, but places near 3,000 feet or a little higher could get a slushy coating to a half inch of snow. Summits might see 1 to 2 inches, maybe more if there are any cold surprises. 

In eastern Vermont especially, the National Weather Service says a few flakes could fall at elevations as low as 2,000 or 2,500 feet, though no snow will accumulate at such a low elevation. 

Keep all this in mind if you have a big Saturday morning hike planned. Either postpone it or dress for a winter hike, your choice. 

RAIN

The cold, small but intense bowling ball of a storm that has blasted down from the Arctic Circle and was making its way southward through Quebec toward New England this morning. The direction of the storm is odd enough, most of them come from the west or south, not from the Great White North. 

When storms do come from the north or northwest, they tend to be pretty dry affairs, with light precipitation. There's no warm ocean up that way to add a lot of moisture to the atmosphere. But this storm is so dynamic that it's able to squeeze every bit of moisture it can out of the air. 

The Northeast Kingdom, along with northern New Hampshire and western Maine, can expect more than an inch of rain between this afternoon and noon Saturday. The area around New Hampshire's White Mountains could receive two inches of rain. That will probably translate to a LOT of snow atop Mount Washington, which is New England's highest peak.

Rainfall amounts will fall sharply as you move away from the Northeast Kingdom. Places a little north and east of Interstate 89 can expect up to three quarters of an inch.  The Champlain Valley would get a half inch north up near St. Albans and Alburgh, tapering to a quarter inch south of Burlington. 

Southern Vermont only gets a tenth of an inch out of this. 

TIMING

Light showers were already scattered around northern New York and Vermont as of 9 a.m. The showers will start to increase in intensity and number north later this morning or early afternoon and spread south and east. There could be a rumble of thunder because the storm is so dynamic. Once the rain arrives, temperatures will fall rapidly from the 60s through the 50s. Tonight's lows will be between 38 and 45, except low 30s above 3,000 feet.

SATURDAY

The rain should taper off pretty early in the day.  The morning should feel pretty chilly and blustery, but the sun should come out in most areas during the afternoon. That'll boost temperatures into the 55 to 65 degree range, depending on whether you are fairly high up in elevation north or a low elevation south. That's pretty cool for this time of year, but it's actually pretty nice for outdoor activities. 

SUNDAY

Part of the day will be nice. By early afternoon, most of us should see temperatures within a few degrees either side of 70. But the next cool storm from the north will start to arrive in the afternoon with its batch of showers. 

This cool batch of rain isn't as cold or as intense as the one we're getting tonight. So it shouldn't snow in the mountains and rain in the Northeast Kingdom will be lighter than tonight's go around. 

BEYOND SUNDAY

We'll have trouble getting rid of this weather pattern, so it will be relatively cool and showery at least through Tuesday. But it could last until the end of the week, depending on which weather model you believe. Stay tuned! 

Yes, It's A Cold Shot Coming To New England, But Not THAT Cold

I always post National Weather Service snowfall prediction
maps in the winter. I couldn't resist posting their snowfall
forecast for this weekend. As you can see, an inch or less
is expected in the high elevations, with maybe a couple
inches atop Mount Marcy, New York. 

 I've been hyping up the so-called cold snap and mountaintop snows coming Friday night and Saturday morning, but we actually should't complain. The weather over the next few days in Vermont really won't be that awful. 

Even Saturday won't be a total disaster. 

It's true that yesterday was the last warmer than normal day we'll see in Vermont for awhile. But this time of year, it can get dreadfully hot and humid.  We don't have to worry about that! 

In the past, it's also gotten much colder than what we're expecting this weekend.  For instance, the record low high temperature on Saturday in Burlington is 50 degrees. The forecast high is 59. 

Instead of all that, outdoor temperatures will be comfortably in 60s daily today through next Tuesday, except for Saturday. And there's no chance of frost except maybe in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom

We'll call today and tomorrow partly to variably cloudy with just a chance of isolated showers. It will be dry most of the time. Later Friday afternoon will tend to cloud up with a rising chance of showers north as our fast moving "bowling ball" of cold air comes toward us, fresh from the  Arctic Circle. 

THE COLD AIR

The pool of cold air will be over us mostly overnight Friday and Sunday morning. That's when the bulk of the rain (and snow!) will fall. There will probably be a dusting of snow at elevations above 3,500 feet and in higher elevations of the Northeast Kingdom. 

Rainfall for us valley dwellers will vary a lot, with less than a quarter inch south, a third of an inch maybe in the Champlain Valley, a half inch north and east of Interstate 89 and maybe more than three quarters of an inch in the Northeast Kingdom.

Saturday morning will certainly be cold and raw, but some breaks of sun will make things OK in many areas by mid to late afternoon.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY AND BEYOND

Those highs in the 60s during this period will be about five to 10 degrees cooler than average, but well take it. We'll have periods of sun, but also the risk of showers. So it will be the run inside when the rain hits, and a half hour later, it's back outside into the sunshine. t's hard to time out when, those showers might arrive, but the best chance is probably Sunday night and Monday. 

For those of you who like warm summer weather and dislike this cool stuff, there's hope for you, too. The weather pattern will start to change during the middle of next week, and it looks like we'll have at least spells of average to somewhat warmer than average temperatures starting the second half of next week. 

The usual caveat applies: Long range forecasts are iffy, so no promises! 

Gliding Downhill From Summer To (Briefly) Early Spring. How Rare Is Mountain Snow In Late May?

It can snow this late in the season on New England's 
mountaintops. Photo is of eight inches of snow atop
Mount Washington, New Hampshire, June 11, 2023

 Tuesday was a classic summer day. Yes, it's still May but work with me here. Highs in the 80s, sunshine and a slight haze really made me think of July. 

Soon enough, we'll think it's March again.

The forecast hasn't changed much since yesterday. Today will be another sunny one, but slightly cooler with highs in the 70s to low 80s. 

We start to really feel the cool air tomorrow as highs only reach the 60s.  The cold air aloft will bring us a slight chance of light showers.  Friday will be cooler yet as the showers arrive in earnest in the afternoon. 

The core of the cold air - a bowling ball of frigidity from near the North Pole - will arrive in New England Friday night and early Saturday. Yes, it will be cold enough for snow in the mountains. Pretty high up, actually.  Probably at elevations of 4,000 feet and higher.

That means the tippy tops of Vermont's highest peaks could easily turn white. So too, the summits of New York's Adirondacks and New Hampshire's White Mountains. 

The rest of us will endure cold rain showers and temperatures hover in the low to mid 40s Saturday morning. 

HOW UNUSUAL?

Snow so late in the season is pretty unusual for this time of year. Except at places like the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire. I believe it has snowed every month of the year up there. 

Late May and June snows are in New England's history quite liberally. According to the Vermont Weather Book:

There is, of course, the famous Year Without a Summer in 1816. On June 7, snow covered the ground all day in Montpelier and drifts reached 20 inches deep in Danville. 

Even more remarkably, a bigger snowstorm hit Vermont on June 11, 1842. Irasburg reported 10 inches of sow and Bennington had four inches. 

In 1884, a large snowfall hit Vermont's mountains, with accumulating even in the valleys. Lunenburg had two inches of snow. 

There hasn't been anything as dramatic as those examples in modern times, but it does snow this time of year. The latest in the season snow flurry in Burlington on record hit on May 31, 1945. Don't worry, Burlington is safe from snow with this go around Friday night and Saturday. 

On May 24-25, 2013, snow fell at elevations as low as 750 above sea level in Vermont. Mount Mansfield received 13.2 inches of snow, its greatest snow fall for so late in the season. Whiteface Mountain, New York came in with a whopping 34 inches. 

I wish I could find information on the following but I can't. I seem to remember snow falling at elevations as low as 600 feet in the early 1990s. The Bolton 'Valley ski area got a couple inches, I believe. 

On June 10, 2023, Mount Washington, New Hampshire had over eight inches of snow, making it their snowiest June on record. It didn't get quite cold enough on Vermont peaks to snow that day.   The cold and snow hit on what was otherwise a very hot summer.

CAN'T STAY COLD

Even when the forces of nature say otherwise, it really can't stay cold, or at least not that cold, this time of year. 

Saturday should stay in the nippy 50s. But despite that cold air coming from Canada, highs should be in the 60s daily Sunday through Tuesday. That's cool for this time of year but still comfortable. It should warm up more later next week. Summer is definitely not canceled. 

Quick Shot Of Summer To Be Followed By Weekend Chill

Lilacs in the foreground, lilacs in the background on this
sunny, warm late May morning in Vermont. But some
"interesting" weather could arrive this weekend. 

It was definitely a soaker of a Memorial Day weekend in Vermont, with virtually everyone receiving at least three quarters of an inch of rain and most places going over an inch. 

The heaviest rain seemed to be in central Vermont, where two day totals included 1.8 inches in Hinesburg, 1.76 inches in Vergennes 1.71 inches in West Bridgewater and 1.68 inches in Warren. 

Also, the last of the snow melted atop Mount Mansfield over the weekend. There was no measurable snow up there for the first time since October 26.  

That's one of the longest "winters" Mount Mansfield has had. But is the snow really done for the season up there on Vermont's highest peak? Read on to find out. 

The clouds were frustratingly slow to move out yesterday afternoon, especially in  northern Vermont. But they finally did toward evening, giving us a short shot at summer for the next couple of days before annoyingly chilly weather returns. Things could get pretty interesting by this weekend. 

Here's how this will play out

TODAY

A squirt of very warm air has moved in from the west. Forecasters have bumped up expected temperatures today so it's going to actually feel kind of hot. Warmer valley floors should get into the mid-80s. Humidity levels should be reasonable, though, and there will be a nice southwest breeze.

WEDNESDAY

Yesterday, I told you about that Omega block setting up around the nation. This thing will make Vermont turn cool, and very cool by the weekend. Before we get there though, the first of a series of cold fronts will have come through by tomorrow, but it won't make too much of a difference. 

It should still get well into the 70s, with some low 80s in broader valleys, including the Champlain Valley. We'll call the skies partly sunny.

THURSDAY

Upper air weather forecast map for Friday night. Click on
image to make it bigger and easier to see. It shows an
upper level, cold low over us. Those blue lines indicate
that it could be cold enough to snow on mountain peaks.

Here's where we begin to feel the north winds. It'll still be sunny, but highs will only reach the 60s, with some low 70s south. That's actually a couple degrees cooler than average for this time of year. But still very nice. Then the fun begins.

FRIDAY

A pocket of very cold air, which looks like a bowling ball on weather maps, will race down from Hudson Bay and score a strike on us here in Vermont starting during the day Friday. It'll be overhead Friday evening into Saturday. 

Given that this is coming straight from dry northern Canada, you'd think there wouldn't be much weather coming out of this. But the dynamics in this "bowling ball" look like they'll be strong, so lots of showers will break out starting Friday afternoon and into Saturday. 

This is really cold air aloft for this time of year. Early guesses are that the snow level Friday night and Saturday morning could fall to 4,000 feet. So,  yes, it would snow on Mount Mansfield if this forecast is correct.

Even if it does't snow, it will be very cold and wet and windy in the mountains, so you might want to postpone your weekend hiking plans. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Sunday looks chilly and showery, too, but probably not as bad as Saturday. After that, a slow warming trend should take hold next week, but it will probably remain cooler than average for at least the first half of the week. 

Soaking Memorial Day Morning Vermont Rain To Yield To Some Sunshine, Finally! "Omega Block" Looms

National Weather Service radar showed lots of soaking
rain across Vermont as of 8 a.m today. But if you have
Memorial Day plans, the rain should exit by late
morning to yield a partly sunny afternoon

As expected, Sunday was a chilly, rainy mess of a day. There were a couple bright spots in the gloom.

Winds were not as strong as expected near the mountains, so there were no power outages to speak of. In western Vermont, the rain tapered off as expected in the late afternoon, so you could sneak in some outdoor activities. 

Most places around the state had roughly a third of an inch of rain, give or take. That was what was forecast south, but it amounted to a little more than expected north. Good for the gardens, so another bonus there. 

Another heavier slug of rain was moving through Vermont early this morning. This rain seemed to be over-performing a little, too. 

Burlington was closing in on an inch of rain today from this morning's disturbance. Forecasts had called for a half inch. We'll see how the rest of Vermont does once this rain is out of our hair. 

The good news is this morning's rain does not mean we will have another entire gray, overcast day to deal with. 

The rain was beginning to end in western Vermont as of around 8:30 a.m. and should be out of eastern Vermont before noon. This afternoon, skies will turn at least partly sunny, and that should send temperature up into the comfortable low 70s, which is more or less normal for this time of year. 

REST OF WEEK

A schematic from Fox Weather showing what an 
Omega block looks like on a weather map. It features
 a northward bulge in the jet stream featuring warm,
sunny weather sandwiched between cooler
somewhat wetter southward dips in the jet stream.

Something called an Omega block in organizing itself in the atmosphere.  That's when a big northward bulge in the jet stream is flanked on either side by deep dips in said jet stream.  It's called an Omega block because the set up on a weather map resembles the Greek letter Omega. 

They're called a block because these patterns gum up the works so that the general weather stays the same wherever you are in the whole setup. 

Omega blocks are hard to dislodge, so they can last for days or even weeks. 

In this case, the big northward bulge will be in the middle of the U.S and central  Canada. Those areas will  have sunny and warn weather. The "dip people" in the northwest and northeast U.S. will be cooler and more unsettled. 

The Omega block is just starting to set up, so the change toward cooler weather around here will be gradual as the dip sends a series of weak cold fronts southward.  Here's how we think it will play out in Vermont

Tuesday: A summer day. The last one we'll have for awhile. Under sunny skies it should reach the low 80s. Some clouds might filter in during the afternoon, especially north, but that shouldn't make much of a difference in what a nice day it will be.

Wednesday: Still very nice, but winds will have shifted into the northwest, so the cooling will just be beginning. Highs should still make it into the 70s.

Thursday: Cooler  yet under partly sunny skies. Highs in the 60s, so now we're into somewhat chillier than average territory. 

Friday/Weekend: By this time, the coldest air aloft will have arrived. That means the strong end of May sun will heat the ground, which creates rapid updrafts into the cold air above. That means showers. It's a little soon to figure out how many showers and who gets the most of it. Best chances for rain will be north nd mountains. 

Depending on how cloudy it gets, it could get quite chilly down here near the surface. If we manage a fair amount of sun, we could get into the low 60s, still nippy for this time of year. If it's cloudier, we hold in the 50s, which is getting weird for this time of year. 

As noted, Omega blocks don't break down easily once they form. Which means we could be stuck with this cool, unsettled weather perhaps through the first week of June. Stay tuned on that one. 

Climate Change, Iran War And El Nino Are Painful, But Might Drive Humanity To Renewable Energy

The Iran war is causing all kinds of economic headaches
worldwide. But in the long run, it could push

As if the world's weather wasn't screwed up enough by climate change, El Nino is about to make it all worse. And Donald Trump's war of choice in Iran might well team up with El Nino to really make things scary. 

First, El Nino, a periodic warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific, seems imminent. As we've already reported, is expected to be huge.  They're calling it a super El Nino, which will make any effects from the phenomenon writ large. 

Strong El Ninos can substantially heat up the world. Earth's temperature is already near record highs thanks to climate change. If El Nino and climate change team up the way forecaster think, weather and climate disruptions in the form of record storms, record heat, massive droughts and floods could really amplify many of the problems the Iran war is causing. 

According to Lawfare:

"A climate change-fueled El Nino will amplify the growing shocks of the Iran war, many of which will unfold over the coming year even in the unlikely case that risk of renewed conflict resolves soon."

The publication noted us the situation is reminding us "That Mother Nature gets a vote on our priorities, too, and that climate resilience is inseparable from global security goals."

Even if by some miracle the Iran war ends tomorrow, the problems and potential crises remain. 

Lawfare again: 

 "Even if the strait is durably opened, it will take time to clear backlogged ships, for insurers to feel confident that transit is safe, and for damaged or shuttered oil and gas facilities to resume production. Countries would normally be stocking up on natural gas over the spring and summer for winter heating needs, and El Nino could further intensity pressure with intensified heat, electricity demand for cooling, and energy grid strips this summer

Countries in Southeast Asia are already scaling back on air conditioning, concerns that dangerous summer temperatures could crash electric grids and kill citizens."

Here in the United States, A Brown University analysis released on May 18 shows Trump's Iran war has cost American consumers $41.9 billion more at the fuel pumps since late February.

OTHER ASPECTS

This isn't just about oil and gas.

A third of global maritime nitrogen fertilizer trade are blocked due to the closed Gulf of Hormuz. Also, says Lawfare, countries that depend on Middle Eastern gas to produce their own fertilizers have shut down production. 

Also, "farmers who are planting tomorrow's food now have been forced to delay planting, switch crops, or accept subpar yields. Food security can be disrupted further as fuel and logistics costs rise, agriculture land is repurposed for newly economical biofuels, and countries potentially react with protectionism and export restrictions that spike prices further."

In the long run, this mess might undermine Trump's goal of propping up the fossil fuel industry. Oil shocks in the 1970s and 1980s, the Gulf War of 1990-91 and the Ukraine war all prompted industry to emphasize fuel efficiency. Global per capital petroleum use declined after the 1970s oil shock and never recovered noted Juan Cole in Informed Consent. 

Cole argues that the Straight of Hormuz crisis shows signs of what he calls a "chronic ailment."  Iran will probably always be tempted to develop a nuclear arsenal. Israel and the United States will probably keep striking. "In short, Israel and the United States have destabilized the Persian Gulf and global oil and natural gas supplies for the foreseeable future."

In other words, the price at the pump is going to stay annoyingly high for a long time. And that's the least of our problems. 

In the United States, Trump is still squawking drill, baby drill.  The Trump administration ended tax breaks worth up to $7,500 last year. Despite that, car buyers in the U.S. will probably keep turning more and more to EVs if gas prices stay high. 

Nations around the world see the writing on the wall.  Cole, in Informed Consent, has many examples. 

In the United Kingdom, EV sales rose a record 24% over the same month a year earlier. It helped that the average cost of  EVs in the UK are now a little less expensive there than similar gasoline-powered cars.  Europe is seeing a big jump in demand for rooftop solar systems. 

China is going through a boom in EV production. In 2024 they produce more than 12 million electric, hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles. India is building an EV future, currently building out a network of charging stations.  Pakistan has reported a boom in electric vehicle sales since the Iran war started.

Asia is especially prone to disruptions in the Persian Gulf oil pipeline, so you can see why the 4.8 billion people there are embracing an electric vehicle future. 

"Those who've fought to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels are inadvertently supercharging the global renewables boom," said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the UN's climate secretariat UNFCCC, as reported in Reuters. 

Trump's war in Iran is all bad news. For us and for Trump. With this war, Trump's goal of propping p the oil and gas industry forever might be slipping through his fingers.