Very Mild Vermont November Week'; Forecasters Unfortunately Reduce Expected Rainfall Totals

Camels Hump pokes from behind some other hills in
Richmond, Vermont yesterday. It's stick season, but
it doesn't feel like it this week, as we're enjoying
some unusually mild weather this week. 

 Monday brought Vermont some of the warm weather we wish we had more of during the second half of October. 

Burlington had a nice warm high of 68 degrees Monday after a balmy low of 52, which meant the day was 16 degrees warmer than average. 

That's the largest departure for any date in Burlington since May 19, when an early season heat wave pushed us to 20 degrees above normal. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, Monday was just as warm or warmer than Burlington. Montpelier reached 69 degrees. It was 70 in St. Johnsbury and a toasty 72 in Springfield. 

This morning started warm, too, with low temperatures statewide in the mid 40s to low 50s. This helps set us up for four days of warm November temperatures before it's back to reality.  

So, let's get into it, like we do every morning. 

TODAY

It will actually be a bit cooler today than yesterday, thanks to clouds and some light showers that will should sprinkle the northern parts of the state. 

But it will still be warmer than normal. Where the rain falls most frequently in the far north, highs will be in the upper 50s, which is nearly ten degrees above normal. Southern valleys, which likely woh't receive any rain at all, highs could touch the upper 60s. 

Areas along and north of Route 2 will probably have less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Maybe a touch more near Jay Peak.  No rain is expected in central and southern Vermont, just clouds. 

WEDNESDAY

After another balmy morning, the day will turn out partly to mostly sunny and warm. Very warm. Maybe record warm. This morning's forecast has a predicted high of 73 which would tie the record high for the date. 

The National Weather Service has Montpelier reaching 74 degrees. Their record high tomorrow is 72 degrees. The forecast high in St. Johnsbury is 72, close to the record high of 73. 

Enjoy it, as Wednesday will likely be the warmest day until next spring. 

THURSDAY

A weather front will approach us from the west, a little earlier in the day than first thought. Which means the rain will arrive earlier than first thought. Light rain will move into western Vermont by early to mid morning and spread into the rest of the state by noon, give or take. 

Given how dry it has been, we need a soaker. Unfortunately, this will not be a soaker. Just light rain. Most of us will just receive 0.1 to 0.25 of rain, maybe a little less than in southeastern Vermont.  It won't be enough to ease our dry conditions, but we'll take anything we can get. 

FRIDAY: 

The front will have gone by to our east, but an upper level trough of low pressure will linger overhead.. That means we'll have lots  of clouds and a chance of showers. Cooler air will stay bottled up to our northwest for one more day, so we'll see some mild low 60s for highs despite the clouds. 

SATURDAY

A couple days ago, we hoped a storm would form along the front along the East Coast, then curl northwestward toward New England, drenching Vermont in a soaking rain. 

So much for that idea. The storm will form, but will stay far enough away so that we won't see a soaking rain. Maybe some showers.  It'll be a little cooler but still not bad, with highs in the 50s. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Sunday is several days away, so we can't be too confident about the forecast. But for now, it's looking partly sunny and seasonably cool. There are more chances of rain next week. 

Vermont October Was Sunny - With Oddly Warm Days And Cold Nights; Dry Stretch Continued

October saw many days like this - clear skies with cold 
mornings and mild afternoons. The month was
overall slightly cooler than average, but days were
warmer than average, nights were colder
than average. 

 You probably noticed how often I referenced "big, fat high pressure systems" during October. 

Now, the figures are in and October in Vermont featured warmer than average daytimes and colder than average nights. 

That's unusual, but it makes sense in context of those big, fat high pressure systems. 

Those high pressure systems brought lots of unusually dry, sunny days. That meant the sun heated afternoons to the point they averaged above normal. It also meant nights got cold and frosty. 

Burlington's average low temperature was 38.7 degrees, which is a tad over three degrees below the "new normal." 

The nights were so cold that eight nights got into the 20s, the most since 2002, when there were also eight. The last time there were more than eight such nights in the 20s was way back in 1974, when there were ten such dates. This according to WCAX-TV meteorologist Gunnar Consul. 

Add it all up, the average temperature turned out to be 49.2 degrees, which was 1.1 degrees below the "new normal."

The result was a month that on paper ended up averaging near normal. 

Take Burlington, the main reporting station had an average high during October was 59.6 degrees, which was 0.7 degrees above the "new normal" 

"New normal" is the climate-changed average temperature, based on all the temperatures from 1991 to 2020. Those years were warmer than the 20th century average. 

Overall, October comes in somewhere in the middle of the past 136 years of records I have for Burlington.  It was the 74th coolest, (or 62nd warmest) on record. 

The warmest it ever got in Burlington during October was 70 degrees. That's the lowest October high since 2009. The low of 26 was the coldest since 2015. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, it was much the same. The average daytime hight at other weather stations across the state were about two degrees warmer than normal, give or take. Overnight lows were generally two to as much as three degrees colder than average. 

The bottom line: For places across the state, it was a month that was near to about a degree below the "new normal"  we're living under.  

Precipitation

It was a dry month statewide, thanks in large part to those big, fat high pressure systems that kept a lot of rainy storms at bay. 

In Burlington, October rainfall amounted to 2.52 inches, with is 1.31 inches lighter than normal. That left Burlington with the 55th driest October out of the past 127 years of records. 

Other reporting stations across Vermont were equally dry, or even worse. St. Johnsbury was among the "wettest," coming in just about two-thirds of an inch on the dry side. Montpelier's rainfall were a little over an inch below normal. 

Southern Vermont was even worse. Rutland had only 1.33 inches of rain, which was 2.65 inches below normal. Bennington had about 2.2 inches less rain that an October would normally bring. 

Outlook

As we've mentioned already, November is off to a mild start. For what it's worth, NOAA is calling for a classic, strong El Nino pattern across the nation. The northern half of the United States is forecast to be warmer than normal during November. 

Precipitation in November is expected to be above normal across the southern United States and in eh Plains. Here in Vermont, NOAA has our precipitation as a tossup - equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. 

As always, we shall see. 

Warm Start To November, Needed Rain (Hopefully!) Looms

The now leafless Fairfield Hill in St. Albans, yesterday
as a warm sun sets early now that Daylight Savings
 Time is over. 

 Boy, Sunday was gorgeous, especially for the beginning of November.  

It was wall-to-wall sunshine with temperatures rising well into the 50s. Light winds, too. 

This whole week will be mild for November, with changes coming. The long dry spell is on its last legs.  Maybe some rain in the far north later Tuesday, then maybe some better rains statewide Thursday. 

Here are the details, as we always do them. 

TODAY

We seared the day balmy, especially in the Champlain Valley, where dawn temperatures were around 50 degrees. East of the Green Mountains, it was in the 30s at dawn, normal for this time of year. 

By afternoon, temperatures will converge statewide on the low 60s. Maybe even mid-60s in the warmest valleys, especially south.  For comparison, normal highs this time of year are near 50 degrees. So enjoy the warmth. 

TUESDAY

It'll be a cloudier day overall, especially in the northern half of Vermont. Light rain will start to move into northern Vermont during the afternoon. Once again, it won't amount to much. But by the time it ends at night, areas north of Route 2 will have less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Maybe a little more than that in the far northern Champlain Valley. 

Southern Vermont will have nothing. 

Temperatures will be warm again, with highs near 60 degrees.

WEDNESDAY

This will be a pretty spectacular day for November. Sunshine should prevail, with highs flirting with 70 degrees. Record highs that day are in the low 70s, so we'll be close. 

THURSDAY

This could be the day it rains. Really rains. I mean, not all that much rain, but something that should get us wet for a change.  It'll be warm for the season again, with highs in the low 60s. Rain should continue into the night. 

FRIDAY-SUNDAY

Another follow-up storm looks like it might form along the coast, which would keep the rain going, especially Saturday, The rain could linger into Sunday. We don't know how much rain we'll get, but there's the potential for more than inch. So stay tuned! 

Vermont Weather Flipping To Milder As We Switch Into November

A cold look to the atmosphere in St. Albans, Vermont as
October closed. November will open with much
milder weather and eventually, chances of rain

 I'm getting a late start today, sorry about that!  

October went out yesterday true to form with skies that were somewhat cloudier than forecast and temperatures that stayed cool.  The high in Burlington yesterday was only 48 degrees. I noticed in places like Eden, Vermont, mid-afternoon temperatures were only 39 degrees. 

A fitting end to one of the coldest Octobers in recent years. I'll have more on that in another post later today or tomorrow. 

We started the day in the low to mid 20s again today, but chilly October is over, in favor of mild November, at least for now. 

This week, for a change, is going to warmer than normal. Probably not record breaking warm, but still, pleasant for November. 

On top of that, our long dry spell looks like it will finally end toward the end of the week. It's still unclear how much rain will fall, but if we're lucky, it could be substantial. We're also into the season of snow, but so far, 

Let's get into the dailies

REST OF TODAY

 Gorgeous! Wall to wall sunshine and highs well into the 50s. Enjoy!

MONDAY

Another beautiful day for November. Partly sunny, with highs in the low 60s. For comparisons, highs this time of year are normally near 50 degrees. 

TUESDAY

More clouds than Monday, especially north, but some sun will filter through at times.  It'll be mild again, with highs up near 60 degrees.

Some showers might come through northern Vermont in the afternoon and evening, but, like the past few episodes, amounts will be very light. If it rains at all, it will amount to only a few hundredth of an inch of rain. 

WEDNESDAY

At this point, it's look partly sunny and balmy. Highs should reach well into the 60s to near 70 degrees.  This might actually threaten sone record highs. We'll need to see any adjustments in the forecast either way to see whether that will happen or not. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

There's a lot of questions as to when rain will arrive and how much.  We might eke out another dry day, but we're not sure yet. There seem to be a  better chance of rain Thursday night. We don't know yet how long the rain will last. 

But it could go into the weekend. It will probably turn colder by then, However, the coldest air will stay far to our north, so it don't look for any low elevation snowstorms just yet. 

Halloween Vermont Weather Not Spooky; Warming Trend Coming Amid Continued Dry Weather

Gray skies, cold winds, bare trees in Franklin County,
Vermont yesterday. Stick season is here. 

 Today and tomorrow morning are going to be the last in a long stretch of mostly cold weather, but the dry weather will roll on well into next week.  

It's been a remarkably cold October in Vermont, especially in this age of climate change.

 I'll have more on that tomorrow. Yesterday. especially in northern Vermont, it was a proper introduction to stick season - cold northwest winds, gray skies, leafless trees. Noah Kahan would be proud. 

It was a little sunnier in southern Vermont valleys, but it still wasn't exactly warm. 

As we flip the calendar to November, it will actually warm  up, for awhile anyway. 

But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's get into the forecasts:

TODAY

We've got a cold Halloween to get through. Not ridiculously cold, but it'll put a proper scary chill in your bones, especially at sunset and after dark, when temperatures should plunge nicely.

During the day,  we'll have a lot of sunshine, a lot more than yesterday. But a small disturbance will swing some high and mid-level clouds through for awhile in the late afternoon and evening. 

 North breezes will continue all day, but it won't be as gusty as yesterday. But the breeze will hold afternoon temperatures down in the mid and upper 40s. Low 50s is a few warmer valleys. 

The dry air we have means it'll get colder fast as the sun sets, as noted. The kids probably want to wear something warm under the Pokemon costumes. Early evening temperatures will fall through the 40s and into the 30s during the trick or treating hours. 

SUNDAY

The weather will be awfully familiar, one that we've seen so often this October. The day will start below freezing statewide pretty much everywhere. Wall-to-wall sunshine will bring temperatures will up into the comfortable mid and upper 50s during the afternoon. Maybe a spot 60 in the warmest valleys??

NEXT WEEK

The persistent pattern of big, fat, chilly high pressure systems coming through is ending. The last in the series is overhead today.  

How the new weather pattern eventually evolves is up for debate, but it's still an open question on whether we'll get some decent precipitation out of this new pattern. Gawd knows we need it. 

Monday looks partly cloudy, and Tuesday looks cloudier. There might even be a late day sprinkle north on Tuesday. Highs both days looks like they will be within a few degrees either side of 60. Normal highs this time of year are near 50 degrees.

The nights will be milder, too, So this will give us a little break for those of us who are dealing with high heating costs. 

Some sort of storm will come by during the second half of the week. We don't know yet what shape this will take, when it will give us any rain. We also don't know how much rain. It could be sprinkles, it could be a drencher, it could be something in between. 

Stay tuned!

Vermont Had Tiny Bit Of Rain Last Night, But Long Dry Spell Rolls On

Clouds increase over Hard'ack Hill in St. Albans,
Vermont yesterday as temperatures rose into the
upper 60s. Cooler today and tomorrow, but
dry weather continues for next several days. 

A tiny bit of rain fell on a few parts of Vermont overnight with the latest cold front, but we still really need the rain.  

Thankfully - so far - drought conditions haven't really worsened, according to the latest weekly U.S Drought Monitor, released yesterday. 

Just like the week before, 14 percent of Vermont was in drought and 81 percent of the state was either in drought or abnormally dry, according to the report.  I'm guessing drought conditions worsen more slowly in the late autumn than in the spring and summer. 

Still, things might get worse as very little rain is forecast for the next week. 

Last night's rain was "heavier" than expected in a few spots, but that means there was a few hundredths of an inch of rain instead of sprinkles. Burlington has 0.08 inches overnight. Many other towns had nothing at all. 

Yesterday was also one of the warmest days, if not the warmest day we'll see until next spring. Burlington and Rutland reached 67 degrees. Montpelier was 68 degrees. Springfield reached 70. 

It's cooler today, but we're breaking the trend of each cold front bringing ever more chillier weather. True, today and tomorrow will be noticeably cooler than yesterday, but not colder than the last chilly day we had earlier in the week. 

We're now back to the routine of dry, sunny days. At least generally. Let's get into the daily forecasts as always. 

TODAY

We started out really mild for this time of year. Most of us started the day with temperatures in the 50s. Since a cold front has just come through, those temperatures won't go anywhere. In some spots, they might fall a little during the day. 

Winds will be gusty from the west and northwest. The skies will be mostly cloudy because of the cool, unstable air coming in. Those clouds could yield some sprinkles in the northern mountains, but that's it. 

The wind and the overall dry conditions are keeping the fire danger high across the state.

SATURDAY

We're back to the usual weather: Sunny, cool and dry. After the typical frosty morning, temperatures will rise to the low 50s by afternoon. Winds will be lighter, too.

SUNDAY

Rinse and repeat. A frosty morning, then a sunny, bright day. It'll be a little warmer than Saturday, with highs well into the 50s.

NEXT WEEK

The dry weather pattern will be slowly trying to break down, but it will take time to do so. 

It'll be dry and relatively mild during the first half of the week. 

By Tuesday. a storm will be causing some rough weather in the middle of the nation. But weather systems will still be gummed up, so it will probably take until the end of the week before we see any rain.

Plus, the computer models always argue over sluggish, weird weather patterns, so we don't know how much rain we'll get or when it will arrive. But we hope it turns out to be a real soaker. We need it. 

Vermont Dry Spell Continues; Wind Increases Fire Risk Today, Tomorrow

The last gold leaves of the season cling to a tree
under yesterday's clouds on Wednesday in St. 
Albans, Vermont. 

Technically the long dry spell ended in Burlington yesterday. 

As expected, almost all the clouds we had Wednesday yielded just virga - which is rain that falls from clouds but dries up on the way down. 

However, a thicker cloud passed over parts of the Champlain Valley toward evening, and that yielded a whopping 0.01 inches of rain on Burlington. In other words, nothing that would change how dry it is out there. 

TODAY

The fire risk is even higher than it has been lately, mostly because the winds will pick up today. We'll get into it a bit. 

Skies have cleared, and we had mostly a blue sky dawn, with a little haze and valley fog. Some places started the day with calm winds, and others, mostly in the Champlain Valley, had somer south winds. 

That has led to a wild range in temperature. At 8 a.m., it was near 30 degrees east of the Green Mountains. Meanwhile, it was 51 degrees in Burlington.  

Temperatures will even out nicely by this afternoon. And it will be a warm one. Possibly the warmest day until next spring. Maybe. Highs should get into the 60s. Maybe 70 degrees in the warmest valleys. 

The real problem is the wind. The humidity remains low, and winds will increase from the south. The fallen leaves are now crispy and dry, and the weeds that grew all summer are dead and dry. We've already had some brush fires this week. With the gusts today, the chances that that fires could get out of hand have gone way up. 

So today's a good day to not thrown your cigarette butt out the window, or do any backyard fires. Be careful out there.

FRIDAY

Another cold front will come through late tonight or very early tomorrow. There might be another sprinkle or two overnight in northern Vermont and in the Green Mountains. But again, nothing to end the dry spell. 

Cold air will be flooding in, but it won't be as cold as the last round. Highs should hold in the 50s. But instability clouds will clutter the skies, and a few sprinkles will dot the northern Green Mountains.  However, any sprinkles won't make a difference. 

It'll be breezy, this time from the west and northwest. So again, fires that start would spread quickly.

SATURDAY

We're back to the pattern we've been in for a couple weeks. The day will start frosty and cold. By afternoon, we should up near 50 degrees, maybe low 50s in the warmer, broader valleys.  Probably wall to wall sunshine, too. 

SUNDAY

Another day, another repeat. Cold and frost to start, with sunshine dominating. There might be a few clouds up there in the sky, but overall, another gorgeous day.  It'll be a few degrees warmer than Saturday, with highs up in the 50s. 

NEXT WEEK

The dry weather will continue well into the week. The weather pattern will eventually change, but it will be slow to untangle. It still looks like it might finally rain - really rain - toward the end of the week, but it's hard to promise anything yet. The computer models are still arguing fiercely with each other over this. Vernon