Incredibly Persistent Heat Dome Roasts Middle Of U.S; Ring Of Fire Storms In Northeast, We In Vermont Escapes

Schematic of a heat dome and ring of fire, similar to the
one we've been under since late July.  Hot sinking air
creates intense heat in the center of the nation. The 
edges of the heat dome has frequent bouts of 
severe thunderstorms. Graphic is from Iowa 
Storm Chasing Network

The weather pattern in the United States has been stuck since the end of July, which is an awfully long time for things to stay the same. It's been at least six weeks now with the same set up, with no sign of it ending soon. 

That's despite the fact that the season is changing, and weather patterns tend to get disrupted as we head into fall. This is an amazingly persistent stuck weather pattern, easily among the longest and most impressive I've seen. 

Here's how it's working:

A heat dome set up in the south-central part of the United States in late July and it's been there since. 

That has caused some horrible weather in much of the Lower 48. First, the heat: 

In Memphis, Tennessee every day since August 4 has been 90 degrees or more. It was 100 degrees on Wednesday and 101 on Thursday. Today through next Thursday will range from 98 to 101. 

In Oklahoma City, the final week of July featured daily high temperatures in the 100s. Then, 23 days in August reached 100 degrees, peaking at 109 degrees. It should be near 100 degrees there daily at least through Thursday.. 

Little Rock, Arkansas, all but one August day was 90 degrees or more. 13 days reached at least 100 degrees. 

The northern and often northeastern periphery of heat domes are known as the "ring of fire." the contrast between the deep heat and humidity to the south and cooler weather to the north creates intense batches of thunderstorms. 

That's why the Great Lakes and Northeast have been repeatedly raked by severe storms, flash floods and even tornadoes. Yesterday. a band extending from Michigan to Delaware endured severe weather. The day before, it the severe weather extended from Ontario to Virginia, with at least three tornadoes in western New York 

VERMONT CALMNESS

Here in Vermont, the weather pattern favored us. Sometimes, the "ring of fire" storms extended up here into northern New England, which helps explain why we had a few bouts with severe storms in late July and August.

But overall, this weather pattern makes Vermont a calm island in the wild conditions hitting much of the U.S.  Temperatures have been near normal, or just barely warmer than normal. The only drawback is that since we're north of the deep moisture associated with the ring of fire, rainfall has been lacking. 

It's not nearly as dry as it was at this time last year, when Vermont was in a deep drought. But, with the weather pattern stuck in place for now, we probably aren't going to see a super big rainstorm anytime soon. 

The specific forecast:

Today

Overall, a nice one. Partly cloudy, though mostly cloudy over the northern mountains. There could be a few light showers here and there, but most of us will stay dry. Highs should be comfortably in the 70s.

Saturday

It'll be a little cloudier than today, and a somewhat greater chance of showers. But the showers won't be light. If it rains where you are, it won't last all day. Not even close. Most of the day will be dry. Some places will see no rain. It'll be a little cooler. Highs will be in the upper 60s northern hilly areas and low to mid 70s in warmer valleys. 

Sunday

Another nice day. Cool-ish, low humidity, quite a bit of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys. Highs will be in the low 70s.

Next Week and Beyond

We'll continue to see occasional rather weak disturbance come through occasionally with likely light showers. One thing that is changing is that cool high pressure systems that come through once we hit September become larger and, of course, cooler than they were in August. I'm not ready to talk about frost yet, but sooner or later, that's going to be an issue. 

Also, the weather pattern will have to eventually break down. Larger autumn storms should eventually give us some more substantial rainstorms. And, eventually, snowstorms once we head toward winter. 

Tropical Storm Eduoard Drowns Part Of Texas; ; But Storms Lacking In Atlantic; Pacific Ocean Is Wild, Though

Although the Atlantic Ocean is quiet, hurricanes are
spinning up frequently in the very warm Pacific Ocean.
from left to right, Hurricane Lowell south of Hawaii,
Hurricane Karina in the middle and Hurricane Marie
off the west coast of Mexico

Tropical Storm Edouard made landfall as a 60 mph tropical storm just east of the mouth of the Sabine River in far southwestern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon.  

It might have not been the strongest tropical system ever, but it showed remarkable staying power as it moved inland. Tropical storms tend to fall apart quickly once they move inland. Edouard did not.

Nearly 24 hours after making landfall, it still kept its general shape. Wind advisories for gusts up to 40 mph were in effect two days after landfall. 

The real problem, though, was the flooding. The storm dumped 18 to 24 inches on some areas of East Texas. In one town, 27.53 inches of rain fell. This all forced  dozens of rescues from flooded cars, homes, even an assisted living facility. 

So it was a destructive mess, but at least it wasn't as bad as a full hurricane.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Edouard was a persistent little devil. But this is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. You'd expect full-blown hurricanes this time of year, but nothing. We've had five tropical storms this year in the Atlantic, and none made it to hurricane status. 

Three of the storms - Arthur, Bertha and Edouard - affected the western Gulf Coast. 

The United States is enjoying a very quiet hurricane season so far thanks to the big giant El Nino that has developed eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. El Ninos affect weather patterns around the world.

In the Atlantic Ocean, El Nino creates strong upper level winds. Tropical storms start out as clumps of thunderstorms over the tropical oceans.  The strong upper level winds rips those storms apart. Or, if a tropical storm or hurricane has formed and then encounters those strong winds way high up, the thunderstorms in the tropical system either get ripped apart or get tugged away from the storm's center, causing a weakening trend.

Unless things change dramatically in the Atlantic Ocean soon, this could easily be among the quietest hurricane seasons on record. Which is a nice switch from the slew of busy, destructive seasons we've had in recent years. 

The East Coast of the United States is being spared a bad hurricane season, but we're not out of the woods. We could always have a late season hurricane. And El Nino could well create extreme late autumn and winter storms that would cause their own damage. 

PACIFIC OCEAN

On the other hand, Pacific Ocean hurricanes love El Ninos. 

The ocean is oddly warm during El Ninos, and upper level winds are light. Perfect conditions for incubating hurricanes. 

This year, hurricanes have been forming one after another in the eastern Pacific Ocean and then heading west.

Hurricane Lowell is currently the most concerning of the bunch. It was spinning several hundred miles south of Hawaii. It's was a major hurricane with winds of 140 mph. Meteorologists think it will turn a sharp turn north and eventually pass perilously close to the western Hawaiian islands. However, that forecast is still really uncertain, so stay tuned. 

As of Thursday morning, Hurricane Karina was churned well east of the Hawaii with top winds of 115 mph..

.Hurricane Marie was several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. It had winds of 90 mph and was strengthening as it headed northwestward away from Mexico

Another tropical storm could form off the southwest coast of Mexico in the coming days.  

Expected Rainfall In Vermont Was A Bust Except For In Far Northern Areas, Wild, Tornadic Storms Ontario, Western New York

Vermont was hoping to get some heavy rain last night
like this August downpour in Colchester, Vermont.
Instead, most areas south of Route 2 received little
rain, and not much more rain is in the forecast. 

For most of Vermont, our expected rain last night was a bust. 

The rain that we wanted in Vermont split into two pieces.  One area of heavy rain, and severe storms passed well to our southwest. Another area of dousing rain moved west to east across southern Quebec. That  area of rain brushed northern Vermont. 

And unfortunately, it doesn't look like much more rain is in the forecast. More on the northern rain and the forecast in a bit.  But first: 

WILD WESTERN NEW YORK/ONTARIO

The weather excitement yesterday and last evening were some vicious thunderstorms that raced southeastward late yesterday afternoon and evening from Ontario  and on into western New York and northern Pennsylvania. 

In and around Toronto, intense thunderstorms brought winds severe wind gusts.  tornado warning, golf and even tennis ball sized hail and extensive flooding. Roofs were blown off some buildings, many, many trees fell and tens of thousand of power outages were reported. 

Major highways around Toronto were closed due to flooding.

During Wednesday evening, western New York came under numerous tornado warnings. We don't yet have confirmations of any touchdowns, but the National Weather Service will be investigating the damage today to figure out if and where twisters might have hit.

We always expected those storms to miss Vermont, but we had hoped at least a thick line of heavier rain would move west to east across the Green Mountain State. That didn't happen. Except in the far northern reaches of the state. 

NORTHERN RAIN

The heavy rain in Quebec came far enough south to give some areas north of Route 2 a nice dousing. Though the rain came mostly in short, sharp downpours and not a steady, moderate rain that would have been better for developing drought conditions. 

We don't have full reports on the rainfall in northern Vermont yet. Northwestern Vermont appears to be the big winner. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans picked up an impressive 1.53 inches of rain. In the Northeast Kingdom, St. Johnsbury reported a solid 0.84 inches of rain. It appears the rain might have been even a little heavier north of St. Johnsbury. 

Maidstone, Vermont, way up there in the Kingdom, reported 0.90 inches

Which is good news because the Northeast Kingdom is the driest part of the state.  The latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, released this morning, is unchanged in Vermont from last week. There's still moderate drought and dry conditions in the northeastern part of the state.

The rain was enough to prompt flood warnings for a time in far northern New York, where 2.5 to 3.5 inches of rain was reported. but the rain doesn't look like it caused any real problems here in Vermont. 

Rainfall in Vermont quickly tapered off as you headed south. Woodbury and Morrisville in north-central Vermont had around a half inch of rain.  Burlington had just 0.31 inches. Montplier received only 0.07. Along and south of Route 4, most places had only sprinkles. 

THE FORECAST

Showers are in the forecast, but they won't amount to much, at least for the vast majority of us.  Here are the dailies:

Today

It'll be a rather warm and humid day for early September. Not anything extreme, but you'll feel the lingering effects of summer. It'll get sunnier as we get through the day, too as highs reach well into the 70s. 

There might be a shower or two around this morning, but don't hold your breath on that. 

Friday

Kind of meh, not bad of a day. Party sunny, maybe some light showers over the hills and mountains. Highs in the 70s. Kind of typical early September.

Saturday

A little cooler. Still partly sunny. A slightly better chance of showers than on Friday, but chances are you'll stay dry. Especially if you're in a southern Vermont valley. Or the Champlain Valley. Highs should be within a few degrees either side of 70.

Sunday and Labor Day

Great outdoor weather, as it looks now. Partly to mostly sunny skies, low humidity and highs in the 70s. Monday will be the warmer of the two days. 

Next Week

Not much rain, unfortunately. We're in a fast westerly flow. That means we'll see a lot of weather disturbances zip through, each of them carrying a risk of showers. But the disturbances and cold fronts will be moving so fast that they won't be able to grab a lot of deep moisture that would dump a lot of rain on us. 

Whatever showers we do get won't last long. 

Climate Scientist Fired From West Point Because He Taught Climate Science

A professor at West Point was fired for teaching that
the world's current climate change is mostly caused by
humans, in contrast to Donald Trump's rants.
The fired professor is suing

Donald Trump's war on climate science extends all the way to West Point, making America's armed forces less prepared to deal with the warming world. 

The Guardian brings us the latest example:

"The only climate scientist teaching at West Point, the U.S. Army's military academy, was fired after he resisted an order to stop teaching about the human causes of the climate emergency, a lawsuit claims.

Dr. Adam Kalkstein a civilian professor of geography at the New York institution, was terminated after the spring semester this year, six months after a testy meeting with Brig. Gen. Shane Reeves, then dean of West Point's academic board, the court filing said."

Kalkstein had taught at West Point for 17 years. He said removing material out the human causes of climate change are immoral and potentially illegal.  "We're only telling cadets part of the story. Were lying to them, deceiving them. It would be like trying to teach the law without being able to even mention the Constitution," he said, reported Stars and Stripes.

The lawsuit calls for a jury trial and to block West Point from imposing "baseless" restrictions on academic freedom. It also demands that Kalkstein be reinstated to his job, and pay him monetary damages. 

Kalkstein's lawyer said his client is a conservative and does not have an ideological perspective. In other words, he's not an anti-Trump activist. 

As Stars and Stripes explains it, this all started in May, 2025, when Kalkstein learned his tenured position would be terminated as part of a staff reduction.  He was eventually allowed to remain at West Point as a "term employee" being paid via a $750,000 external grant.  He did have to forfeit a large severance package. 

In September, 2025 when the directive came down to not mention the human causes of climate change. Kalkstein raised concerns about lying to cadets about the issue.  

That culminated in a November, 2025 meeting with Reeves at West Point. Kalkstein brought up concerns about lying to cadets about the human causes of climate change.  Reeves responded by saying that Trump, as commander in chief, sets the agenda for West Point.  Reeves then stormed out of the meeting. 

Stars and Stripes continues:

"At the end of the spring semester, Kalksein  found out his contract would not be renewed. The justification was 'poor character and temperament' with the November meeting cited as evidence."

Which is rich since Reeves is the one who had a tantrum and stormed out of the meeting. 

Trump loves to live in a fictitious world. Fine for him, I guess, but he insists we all live in his fictitious world, much to our peril. 

Kalkstein isn't the only person at West Point victimized by Trump's fantasies. 

 Stars and Stripes reports:

"Kalkstein's is the second lawsuit filed by a civilian teaching at West Point since the start of Trumps second term as president. Tim Bakkan, a law professor, filed a lawsuit in September, 2025 over the banning of some books and courses, which he said violated the First Amendment. That case is ongoing in the courts."

West Point  officials wouldn't comment, citing pending litigation. The White House also has no responded to requests for comments. 

Of course, the firings at West Point are only two examples of people losing their jobs for the sin of talking about plain facts.

Trump and his minions really don't care if our military is ready for whatever might come along. They're more interested in their own talking points and egos than anything else.  

The First Windy, Rainy Autumn Storm About To Hit Vermont, Though Rainfall Might Not Be As Impressive As First Thought

Henry the Weather Dog enjoyed an unexpectedly 
sunny day yesterday in St. Albans, Vermont. A
sort of summer/autumn hybrid storm is expected
tonight, with some decent amounts of rain.

Once we get to September, the nature of storms starts to change. In the summer, it's mostly all scattered showers and thunderstorms. 

Sometimes the thunderstorms get a little too rambunctious with high winds and hail, but most of the time it's OK.  

September comes, and the nature of the storms start to change. They become more of a steady rain. Southern Vermont got a taste of that yesterday morning, as a disturbance zipped through with periods of rain. 

Many places south of Route 4 had between a quarter and a half inch of  rain. Under the cloud cover, temperatures stayed in the autumnal 60s in some parts of the south. 

Up north of Route 2, the sun made an unexpectedly strong showing, boosting temperatures into the upper 70s to score us up there a nice late summer day.

Let's get into what happens next:

TODAY

We'll get through the day mostly or completely dry, but it probably won't be all that bright and sunny. Oh,, sure we'll have a few breaks, especially this morning,   A few light reengage showers could arrive this afternoon, but don't count on any rain during the day. 

The upcoming storm isn't fully an autumn type system. It's sort of not quite summer, not quite autumn thing, so there's elements of both seasons in it.  You'll feel the humidity increase somewhat during the day today, a little like you'd expect ahead of an approaching summer cold front.

Winds will pick up today, too, the way they do ahead of an autumn storm. The winds won't be horrific by any stretch of the imagination, But south winds could gust to 30 mph in the northern Champlain Valley and higher elevations this afternoon and evening before the rain gets here. 

Today is not the day to take your boat or kayak out onto Lake Champlain.

The hybrid nature of the storm meaning areas to the south - not affecting us here in Vermont - will be rather hot and humid. With a risk of severe thunderstorms along a broad band from the southeastern Great Lakes down through the Mid-Atlantic states.

Already, early this morning, there were already severe thunderstorms moving southeastward off of Lake Erie and western Lake Ontario. As of shortly before 8 a.m. there was already a tornado warning in northwestern Pennsylvania. 

Which leads us into tonight:

TONIGHT IN VERMONT

The rain and thunderstorms will move toward Vermont this evening. The thunderstorms will become elevated, meaning a layer of stable air will hold near the ground. That will prevent severe thunderstorms here, but still allow for chances of lighting, thunder and bursts of heavier rain overnight. 

The downpours will be interspersed with a steadier light rain, again like you'd see in the autumn. 

Unfortunately, forecasts for rainfall amounts have been trending downward. We need the soaker, and this won't be as great a soaking as we'd hoped. But, anything is better than nothing. 

For now, we're expecting a half inch to an inch of rain across Vermont.  However, there's still a chance we'll get a little less than that, given the trends I've seen in the forecast. 

THURSDAY

Showers should continue into Thursday morning and maybe into the early afternoon. Thursday should also bring a brief interlude of humid weather.  Showers should end later in the day and with any luck we'll have some sun later in the day. 

FRIDAY/WEEKEND

A bit fall-like again. Our storm will slow down and spin around the Canadian Maritimes, as autumn storms often do. That means at least partly cloudy or mostly cloudy skies, with light showers, mostly over the mountains and Northeast Kingdom. 

It won't be all that chilly, with highs within a few degrees either side of 70 and lows in the 50s. The brief humidity from Thursday will have been solidly flushed out of here.

At this point, Sunday looks sunnier with continued seasonable high temperatures near or a little above 70.

Vermont August Mostly Warm, Dry, Main Measuring Station Burlington Decided To Be An Exception.

A severe, rotating storm over St. Albans, Vermont on
August 10. Despite  frequent, sometimes severe
thunderstorms, August rainfall in 
Vermont was mostly below average. 

Vermont overall had a pleasantly warm, dry August, though that was interrupted by several bouts of severe weather.

Burlington, which is arguably the main weather reporting station for Vermont decided to buck the statewide trend a little. 

In Burlington, the average temperature for August was 70.4 degrees, or just 0.3 degrees below the modern average. 

Remember, the current normal August temperature is the average from the years 1990 to 2020, when climate change had already begun to change our world. 

By 20th century standards, Burlington's average temperature was on the warm side. It was the 29th warmest out of the past 136 years.  The average high and low temperature for the month were both   within a few tenths of a degree of the "new" normal, 

Elsewhere in Vermont, August turned out to be on the warm side, but not extremely so. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Woodstock were between 1.4 and 1.8 degrees on the warm side. Rutland was 0.6 degrees on the warm side. Like Burlington, Bennington was just a tiny bit on the cool side, averaging just 0.2 degrees on the cool side. 

Burlington was also the exception to a generally dry Vermont August. Burlington had 3.99 inches of rain during the month, which was just under a half inch above normal. It was near the middle of the pack as it was the 51st wettest month out of the past 144 years in Burlington. 

Much of Burlington's rain came in a little over an hour on August 8 when a strong thunderstorm dumped 1.2 inches of rain. Much of Vermont had little or no rain that day. A few other areas had light to moderate amounts, except for a narrow section of the Champlain that got nailed. 

That storm was on of several in Vermont that caused some damage. The August 8 storm caused damaging wind and hail in a small area around South Hero, Milton and Colchester.  

Another storm on August 10 mainly affected Franklin County. Rotation in the storm prompted a tornado warning, but no twisters are known to have touched down. However, strong straight line winds caused extensive damage, especially on Maquam Shore in Swanton and in St. Albans. 

On August 12, a severe storm hit southern Chittenden County, knocking down four large trees in St. George. Another large tree fell and blocked Route 116 near the South Burlington/St. George line. 

The next day, a severe storm dumped ping-pong sized hailstones in Fair Haven, and knocked down several trees along Route 30 in Castleton.  Another storm in North Troy, in northeastern Vermont.  

METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER

Meteorological summer runs from June 1 through August 31. That time period is what climatologists consider as summer. It makes the bookkeeping easy. 

As measured in Burlington, meteorological summer was the 11th hottest summer out of the past 128 years. 

All but three of Burlington's hottest summers have happened since 2005. (The other three were in 1901, 1949 and 1995).

Burlington had the 12.73 inches of rain during meteorological summer. That's a little less than an inch above normal. 

Since summers have in generally been getting warmer amid climate change, this turned out to be the 30th wettest summer out of the past 128 years. 

LOOKING AHEAD

No matter what happens, you'll know very soon that summer is over. The average temperature falls rapidly in September. In Burlington, we normally have a high of 78 degrees and a low of 58 degrees. By September 30, the normal high and low is 66/47.

I guarantee somewhere in Vermont during September, there will be frost. It's even possible in the banana belt Champlain Valley. September freezes were once fairly common in Burlington. But, it hasn't been 32 degrees there in September since 2014.

For what it's worth, NOAA says it's a tossup as to whether we'll see a warm or cool September. NOAA is leaning toward a wet September in Vermont. We shall see!

 

Vermont Has One Shot At Drenching Rain Before A Likely Long Dry Spell

Hand it to the National Weather Service, whether radar this morning is exactly what was forecast. 

Weather radar this morning showed areas of rain moving
northwest to southeast across central and southern Vermont
The light blue shading on the northern edge is just 
clouds and very light rain evaporating before it hits the
ground.. Heavier, more drenching rain is forecast
to arrive Wednesday night. 

Areas of rain, most of it light but some of it moderate, to almost heavy, were racing northwest to southeast across southern and central Vermont this morning. 

Northern Vermont was missing out. Clouds were thick and threatening in northwest Vermont, close to the rain band, but thinner up in the Northeast Kingdom.. 

That state of affairs will continue to day, though the rain in southern Vermont will tend to taper off as the afternoon goes on

North of Route 2, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some sunshine breaks out this afternoon.

A stalled weather front to our south and west is responsible for today's rainy weather. 

Total rainfall through tonight looks like they'll amount to a quarter to a half inch in the southern half of Vermont with very little north. 

Scattered showers overnight tonight might deposit a paltry few hundredths of an inch of rain north of Route 2. Too bad, as the Northeast Kingdom needs the rain more than other parts of the state. 

Under the rain and clouds, highs in southern and central Vermont will only get into autumnal  highs in the 60s. Northern Vermont, outside the rain, could make it into the 70s. 

Our sole chance of soaking rains will come later Wednesday through the pre-dawn Thursday. 

WEDNESDAY

We need the rain, and it's still looking like we'll get a decent dose of rain Wednesday night. 

We'll likely get through the day Wednesday without much of rain. It'll be cloudy and vaguely humid, but any showers should be light and few and far between. Highs should get into the 70s, with some mid and upper 60s under areas with thicker clouds, especially east of the Green Mountains. 

n

A stronger area of low pressure will push that stalled front toward us. The system will fire up severe thunderstorms from western New York southeastward to New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. 

Up here in Vermont, thunderstorms should weaken and fade away before reaching us, but we do have a shot at some fairly heavy downpours. The rain will reach us in the evening and continue overnight. 

Over all, the National Weather Service expects a nice three quarters to an inch of rain for most spots, with over an inch in some areas of the Green Mountains. Unfortunately the far corners of the Northeast Kingdom might receive as little as a half inch of rain.

The rain will be steady enough, without too many short, sharp bursts of torrential downpours, that flooding looks pretty unlikely 

THURSDAY-SATURDAY

The storm system will amble on to the east, but not in any kind of hurry. This will keep cool-ish, sort of moist north winds blowing. That could set off some scattered showers, especially Thursday as a secondary weak cold front drifts through Vermont. 

This rain will not be heavy, and it will be scattered. Northern mountains have the best shot at seeing the showers.

Day by day, the showers will become lighter and more scattered so that by Sunday, there shield be few if any sprinkles left over. 

Daytime temperature should be pretty comfortable through the period as highs should reach the 70s, with some upper 60s on cooler, northern areas, especially the Northeast Kingdom. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

We'd better hope the above forecast for a soaking rain comes true, as we look to be in for a fairly long period of dry to mostly dry weather. 

Once we get into September, we often see big, dry high pressure systems hang out nearby.  The next chance of rain looks like it will be just scattered showers ahead of a cold front early Tuesday. 

A storm system riding along that front could bring heavier rain to the south. This is a long way off, so there's always a chance that storm could come closer to us than forecast, and give us some rain.  But we'll wait to worry about that in a few days.