A Gorgeous Vermont Tuesday As We Get Ready For The Next Storm Due Thursday

Our Tuesday morning started clear and delightfully cool, with most of us in the 50s at dawn. A few of the traditional cold spots were in the 40s. 

Rainfall map from Sunday's storm, Interestingly 
rainfall totals were very close to what was predicted
in most areas even though the feared severe 
weather and flash flooding mostly didn't materialize 

This portends a gorgeous day with sunshine, a few fair weather clouds, and highs in the 70s with low humidity. 

Before we get into the rest, let's clean up some of what's already happened. We'll start with a map the National Weather Service released showing rainfall from Sunday's storm. 

Despite the lack of severe weather and flooding (except in the central Green Mountains) actual rainfall totals came out close to what was expected.

 Areas near the Canadian border pretty uniformly received more than an inch of rain, as predicted. But there were no locally higher amounts that would produce flooding. 

The central Champlain Valley had less rain, closer to a half to three quarters of an inch. Southeast Vermont got a half inch, in line with forecasts.

The surprise was a tongue of very heavy rain through southern and eastern Rutland County and western Windsor County. In that band, some towns got three to four inches of rain. No wonder there was some flash flooding near Killington, 

Monday was a little cloudier than expected but still nice, if cool. We've got our nice day today, followed by the next big storm. Big for June anyway. Here are the details

Today: We've already covered it, Get outside and enjoy?

Wednesday: Ahead of the main storm, a little disturbance coming in will add some question marks to the day's weather.  It looks like most of the showers and garden variety thunderstorms that develop will stay in New York. But a few of them will drift into Vermont, so you might find yourself dodging raindrops or a quick downpour. 

Only some of us will get wet. Right now it looks like about 30 percent of us will get some showers. If it does rain where you are, it won't amount to much. 

Thursday: That's when we get our winter-like storm. Don't worry, it only looks like a winter storm on weather maps, We won't have anything close to wintry weather, so you can just relax. 

But we're going to talk about winter for a few more paragraphs, so deal with it. Often, when winter storms approach us from the southwest,  an approaching warm front gives us a big thump of snow that ends up being the bulk of the storm,

Almost the same thing will happen here, except the big thump of snow will obviously be rain. So, as it looks now, anyway, Thursday morning and maybe early afternoon look stormy with a drenching rain, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder. Winds might be slightly gusty in the mountains and in the Champlain Valley, we'll see about that.

In the winter, once the warm front passes, we get a period of light mixed precipitation, followed by maybe a snow squall once the cold front arrives 

Once again, we'll have a similar experience, but no wintry precipitation of course!  Instead, during the day, we'll have a period of somewhat more humid air. Instead, we'll have scattered showers and thunderstorms, with maybe sone stronger thunderstorms when the cold front arrives, probably sone tine in the afternoon.

I suppose some of the storms could be strong with gusty winds and torrential downpours,  But at this point it loos like the day will be cloudy, with not a big push of warm to hot air. So similar to Sunday, we might not see much severe weather. It looks like the bulk of the severe weather will hit the Mid-Atlantic States instead 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a level one out of five marginal risk of severe storms on Thursday. That could change, so stay tuned 

Meteorologists, at least at this point aren't too worried about flooding, either.  The big thump of rain will come through so fast that it won't have time to deposit incredible amounts of rain 

Though the afternoon thunderstorms might dump locally torrential rain, those storms, too, will move fast, The downpours won't sit over one place very long, 

Still, a few spots in Vermont have had a lot of rain in the past couple of weeks. We could still have some local flash floods, But it won't be anything widespread. 

After Thursday 

Another comparison to a winter storm here. After our January snowstorm departs, we have a few days of cold, cloudy weather with snow showers,

So, in this case, we'll have cool, somewhat cloudy weather Friday and through the weekend with risks of showers. Maybe even a garden variety thundershower thrown in for luck. By cool, I mean highs Friday through Sunday would be mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s across Vermont. 

Another quick moving, sort of winter like storm might breeze by next Monday. It'll probably be smaller than Thursday's storm, and could miss us entirely. It's too soon to tell.

We'll forget about winter-like storms soon enough. The final days of June should moderate to somewhat more summer like temperatures. 

 

UFC Fight At White House Prompts Weather Fight With Forecasters

The big UFX fight outside the White House Sunday
Night. Photo from the Associated Press

Donald Trump's weird, silly UFC fights on the South Lawn of the White House went on last night despite threatening, oppressive, buggy weather. 

The fight was postponed an hour to 9 p.m. because of storm threats, and before the match, attendees wandered around in direct sunshine in humid, 90 degree heat, so I'm sure some people were dangerously dehydrated.

A second fight on Sunday went on between weather forecasters and White House spin doctors and trolls. 

Whether or not you found the whole spectacle an embarrassment, The Weather Channel, echoing other meteorological people, had this to say on the social medial platform X:

"UFC Freedom 250 is facing a chaotic weather setup on the White House South Lawn, with a 60% chance of thunderstorms heavy down-ours and wind gusts up to 34 mph threatening to delay the outdoor fights."

The Weather Channel post on X continued:

"On top of the storm risk, brutal D.C. humidity is driving a triple-digit heat index alongside massive swarms of mosquitoes and gnats that fighters will have to battle inside the cage, While the venue's massive 92-foot overhang will keep the octagon dry, a single lightning strike within eight miles will trigger an automatic 30-minute freeze on the entire event."

The White House "Rapid Response account on X responded with the following:

"This event is about celebrating America's unmatched greatness after 250 years - which apparently doesn't sit well with the friendless loser who wrote this bullshit clickbait headline. Rain or shine, we're celebrating out great country no matter what. GOD BLESS AMERICA!" With a little flag emoji.

I'm not sure how a cage match celebrates American, but whatevs. 

But, despite The Weather Channel's typical ominous end of the world prose, they were basically right. There were a lot of storms near Washington Sunday, but most of the worst ones went north and south of the nation's Capitol 

And there was no question the heat was awful. The high temperature reached a miserable 96 degrees with a heat index just about nudging 100 degrees.

As the fights got under way, it was still 79 degrees with a heat index in the low 80s

Still, the MAGA crowd was seething that The Weather Channel decided to.....forecast the weather. 

One MAGA person in X responded to the White House "Rapid Response" shit post wrote, "I had no idea the Weather Channel hated America so much that they were willing to lie about the weather conditions in hopes of deterring the American people of getting together for this amazing event."

Which is typical. Gaslight people into thinking it was a pleasant evening. I guess forecasters should have lied and said it would be sunny and 70 with low humidity just to keep the Orange King happy on his 80th birthday. 

Other, somewhat more sane people took The Weather Channel's side, laughing at the MAGA uproar over a simple summer weather forecast. 

"Imagine getting this emotional because The Weather Channel checked the forecast. They didn't insult American They reported humidity."

The real scary posts were the ones that said God intervened to split the storms so they didn't ruin the cage match. 

As if God had nothing better to do than ensure a sagging, tired orange makeup addict could watch sweaty men fight from the comforts of the White House. 

Thunderstorms are naturally hit and miss. They pretty much missed the big UFC event. Lucky for the fans, not important to the rest of us. 

 

Another Vermont Break: Severe Storms, Flooding Mostly Didn't Materialize. So, What's Next?N

Stormy, volatile looks skies over St. Albans, Vermont
last evening, but severe weather and flash flooding
mostly did not materialize in the Green Mountain
State on Sunday, despite forecasts to the contrary

Yesterday, we went through our second threat of severe, damaging weather in Vermont within three days, and once again, we largely escaped trouble.  

Maybe I feel a little like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, but not really. First of all, we should be grateful there wasn't much in the way of damaging storms or high water. Secondly, weather almost always surprises, despite our nation's supposed meteorological prowess. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

 I also think National Weather Service forecasting has deteriorated a little thanks to Trump's DOGE cuts to this critically important agency, but I'm still waiting on the studies that prove it. This is not a criticism of the meteorologists working at the NWS. It's a criticism of the government that's running it. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

There were a couple trouble spots last night. The National Weather Service had to issue a flash flood warning for the Green Mountains roughly between Rutland and White River Junction. Numerous small roads off of Route 4 near Killington became impassable overnight due to washouts and flooding. Up to four inches of rain was reported in the area. 

A flood advisory was still in effect early this morning over in northern New Hampshire. 

The rain was substantial in northern Vermont, but definitely less than feared. I don't have much in the way of reports yet, but I'm sure forecasts of over an inch of rain near the Canadian border came true. At least in a few spots. But the localized three inch totals probably didn't happen

There were no severe thunderstorms Sunday in Vermont that I'm aware of. I think the skies were too cluttered with clouds and showers during the morning and afternoon to produce the storms. Temperatures across much of central and northern Vermont held in the low to mid 70s under the clouds, not the 80s that had been predicted.

That meant less energy and less instability for severe storms. Almost all the severe weather stayed clustered in the Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the Mid-Atlantic states. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Now that our Sunday storm is done, we can look forward to some decent weather for the next couple of days before the next system arrives later in the week.

We'll go with partly sunny skies after clouds clear out this morning.  Broader valleys will be sunniest this afternoon as a few instability clouds litter the blue skies over the Green Mountains. Highs will be i the 70s. Tomorrow will pretty much be a carbon copy to today. 

We'll start getting back into the clouds and shower risks on Wednesday, but the day won't be a washout. Highs will reach the 70s to around 80.

Thursday looks like an interesting day from a meteorological perspective, but - fingers crossed - I suspect Vermont might dodge more bullets. No promises yet, but so far, it looks OK. 

A pretty strong storm  for this time of  year- one that you usually see in the winter, not summer - should originate around Colorado or Wyoming tomorrow. It will race east to a spot somewhere near Minnesota or Wisconsin on Wednesday. Then it will continue blasting generally eastward, arriving in southeastern Ontario or southern Quebec Thursday. 

The storm seems almost guaranteed to bring a nasty swath of severe thunderstorms and maybe tornadoes in the Midwest Wednesday and Mid-Atlantic States Thursday. 

On this path, Vermont would be in the sweet spot. We'd be close enough to the storm center so that the severe storms wouldn't get quite this far north. The heaviest rain would fall in Quebec. And besides, whether you're in Quebec or Vermont, the storm will blast through so quickly that we wouldn't get enough rain to create much flooding. 

I do give a caveat, as there is a risk some severe storms could sneak into Vermont, especially the south, but so far, so good. 

The storm will probably give us a decent dousing of rain. And since it will be an unusually strong storm, gusty non-thunderstorm winds might bring down a few isolated trees, branches or power lines. 

This is all early guesses. I'll have more when we get closer to the event. 

We're falling into a cool, unsettled weather pattern that will probably last until near the end of the month. Such a pattern features somewhat below normal temperatures most days. It also features frequent chances of showers, but overall rainfall after Thursday shouldn't really be all that heavy. 

So Far, Nothing Terrible In Vermont, But The Test Is This Evening, Flood, Severe Threat Continues

Not much activity in Vermont as of 5:20 p.m. as this
National Weather Service radar showed. But there
was a mess of showers, thunderstorms and 
downpours across western and central New York, 

 Things have felt pretty safe weather wise in Vermont so far today, but it looks like the critical time will be between now and about midnight or so. Especially for the flood risk. 

Rain showers have zipped across Vermont all day,  mostly north of Route 2 as expected. 

Although some of the showers had briefly heavy rain, they haven't yet been enough to set off any flooding concerns. 

The main atmospheric dynamics and the approach of the cold front will occur over the next few hours. 

Heavy rain and thunderstorms have blossomed over western New York and especially southeast Ontario, All the was headed generally eastward.

Whether or not this translates to severe thunderstorms or flash flooding in Vermont remains to be seen. 

Storms

As of late this afternoon, the threat of severe storms was more iffy than the heavy rain. Overcast skies have kept the instability in check.  

 A special discussion from NOAAs Storm Prediction Center noted the clouds holding instability in check across northern New York and northern Vermont might be overwhelmed by the strong winds aloft. 

If some thunderstorms get going, they might be able to create some strong wind gusts and hail However, if big storms do form, they will be pretty isolated in nature. That means storm in  northern Vermont probably won't be widespread enough to t warrant any kind of severe thunderstorm watch. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says they've noted bit of converging air masses roughly along a line from Saranac Lake, New York to Montpelier, 

Strong to severe storms might still fire up along that line this evening. Maybe. It still remains to be seen. 

In southern Vermont, there have been breaks of sun, and it's a little warmer and more humid down there. So the ingredients are still in place for strong to severe storms down there .

Flooding

This still looks like the greater of the two threats. But that doesn't mean another Flood of '23 by any stretch of the imagination. 

However, that doesn't let us entirely off the hook. There could be some spots with flash flooding, especially in the northern Green Mountains and in the Northeast Kingdom. And maybe near that convergence zone on the Saranac Lake to Montpelier line, 

Heavy bursts of rain will occur almost everywhere in Vermont. So any place that gets repeatedly hit by downpours this evening and early tonight is at risk for flash flooding.

The heaviest rain seems to be running a little behind scheduled. Downpours could persist until midnight or even a little after, so if we get any flash flooding, it could continue into the early morning hours of Monday. 

The flood watch in the northern half of Vermont remains in effect until 8 a.m. Monday. 

All the influences going on with this evening's weather are touch and go, So we might see severe storms and flooding or, if we're lucky, this will be another whiff.

In this case, whiffs are good. No damage, no scary moments, then no complaints. But we still need to be on our toes into this evening. 

The cold front will pass overnight. We're still anticipating delightful weather tomorrow. 

 

Stormy Vermont Weather Today To Bring Risk Of Damaging Winds, Local Flash Floods

Areas in yellow have the highest chance of 
seeing at least scattered severe thunderstorms
today. You see Vermont is included. 

 Yesterday was as perfect a summer day you can get in Vermont. The skies were blue and flecked with a few pretty puffy clouds. There was no haze, so the Green Mountains glimmered in their proper color. The air was quite warm, the humidity was gone, and a light breeze made it all feel perfect.  

Today, not so much. 

That strong cold front we've been talking about is threatening us with some really bad weather today. For most of us, it will be merely unpleasant, loud and at times dramatic. For a small minority of us, it could actually be dangerous. 

The two threats today are severe thunderstorms and local flash flooding. There is already a flood watch in effect for the northern half of Vermont today into early Monday. 

Who gets slammed with the worst weather today is mostly the luck of the draw. It depends on where the worst storms set up, and where the heaviest downpours fall.

But it's not entirely a guessing game. We do have a broad idea what will happen. But thunderstorms develop pretty quickly, so the exact spot that gets in trouble becomes clear often only minutes before the actual trouble arrives.  

This is the kind of day that you'll maybe want to rethink outdoor plans like hiking in the mountains or boating across Lake Champlain or a picnic on that gorgeous meadow,. 

You'll also want a way to receive warnings from the National Weather Service. I do think a few severe thunderstorm warnings will go out today. And there might well be a flash floor warning or two, especially north. 

 Severe Storms 

Areas in green shading have a very low, but not zero
chance of seeing a tornado today. Note that 
includes northern Vermont. 

On Friday, we didn't have much in the way of severe thunderstorms because the upper winds weren't very strong. That's not the issue today. Those winds high above us will be strong this afternoon and evening, and they will change direction with height. Storms could bring those high winds down on us. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center early this morning updated their outlook. All of Vermont is in a slight risk zone of severe storms . That's a level two out of five risk level.  Actually a huge area is under that slight risk zone, from the western half of New England, as far west as Ohio, and all the way down the East Coast as far as northern Georgia. 

In all these areas, including Vermont, the biggest hazard  from this set up is strong, damaging straight line winds. 

However, in many areas under this risk zone, there's a risk of a brief tornado. That little twister risk includes Vermont north of Route 4 and northern New York, New Hampshire and Maine. 

The risk of a tornado is very, very low, but not zero. 

The best chance for severe storms is from about noon to 6 p.m. north, possibly lasting a little longer than that central and south. 

Flash Flooding

Weather radar at 10 a.m. showed areas of heavy rain
already starting to move toward far northern Vermont.
Repeated rounds of storms and downpours today 
and tonight could lead to some flash flooding, 

Don't let  today's early morning low humidity fool you, a big surge of moisture is coming in, an is about to interact with that slow moving cold front coming at us from the northwest. 

This will be like the thunderstorm risk: Most places won't have a flood, but there's at least a chance some places will, Especially north of Route 2, and most especially near the Canadian border. 

One area of rain, with a few embedded downpours, seemed to be moving into far northern Vermont as of 9:30 a.m. which could be the start of the soaking up there. 

Waves of thunderstorms and torrential showers should sweep across Vermont today and the first half of tonight, and that's especially true in the north. 

Some areas in northern parts of the sate could see more than 2.5 inches of rain out of this, though most places there will get a little over an inch. 

Individual showers and storms will be moving quite fast. That means just one or two storms moving over the same area won't linger long enough to produce flooding rains. But today,   numerous storms look like they will follow the same path, possibly dumping way too much water for brooks, creeks, ditches and culverts to handle. 

It looks like the latest data supports the idea of a flood risk. Early this morning, northern Maine was under a flood watch. By 8:43, a flood watch went up for northern New Hampshire. Then, at 9:23 a.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued that flood watch for northern Vermont. 

Bottom line: Today is one of those annoying days where we'll be dodging bad and sometimes dangerous weather. Unfortunately, a very few of us might be picked by Ma Nature to end up picking up pieces and filing insurance claims. 

Not just here, but up and down the East Coast. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The good news, I suppose, is that this cold front will usher in some delightful weather tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Highs both days will be in the 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Another strong storm for this time of year possibly looms for this Thursday, but let's worry about today and get to that one later. 

Storms, Heat Weren't As Bad As They Could Have Been, Cooling Trend To Start

One of the few strong-ish thunderstorms that developed
late Friday afternoon, see here over the northern
Green Mountains after dumping torrential rains
on Enosburg Falls. The storm weakened shortly
after this photo was taken, Severe weather didn't;t
really develop as forecast Friday, but it sure
was hot and humid and steamy. 

 Both the heat and the storms in Vermont on Friday didn't quite measure up to forecasts, but that's really OK. The alternative would have been worse. 

Storms tried to get going west of the Adirondacks early Friday morning and struggled as they moved east. They never did blossom until they hit the western slopes of the Green Mountains in central and northern Vermont. 

It looks like the mountains added a little lift to the atmosphere to strengthen the storms. The strongest storm developed a little northeast of Burlington. It was enough to knock over at least one tree in Jericho. That was the only report we've seem of a strong to severe storm.

Sure, some storms  had torrential rains. I noticed some minor street flooding in Enosburg Falls, for instance.. But it was certainly not a severe weather day. And many places remained dry. Here in St. Albans, we got a sprinkle, which was from the developing storm that eventually drenched Enosburg. 

Once the storms got into eastern Vermont, they weakened again. So it really wasn't the severe storm day we feared.

 A little disturbance  ahead of last night's alleged cold front was ultimately responsible for the storms that did form. The "pre-frontal trough," as it was called, is common ahead of summertime cold fronts. 

Clouds from that disturbance kept temperatures a couple degrees cooler than forecast. As if anybody noticed, as it was still hot and humid and gross.  (At any time yesterday, my sunglasses would fog up   if I stepped out of my air conditioned truck into our steamy atmosphere).

But it could have been a little worse.  But Burlington reached 92 degrees, not the record breaking 96 that was forecast. 

Montpelier did manage to break its record high for the dates, reaching 89 degrees. The old record was 88 set in 1949. But the hiogh temperature fell a little short of the predicted 93 degrees.

Now on to the forecast, and there are a couple more bumps in the weather road despite some really nice weather thrown in.

TODAY

It's a little hard to notice, but we're now in the "cool" air. Dawn broke with sunrise temperatures in the 60s across Vermont, with even a few upper 50s thrown in. It was warm, but still the coolest morning since Wednesday. 

Today itself will actually be a delight. The humidity will be lower than the past two days and temperatures will soar into the 80s with sunny skies. A beautiful day for just about anything outdoors, but still quite warm. Watch yourself if you're doing physical activity.

SUNDAY

Sunday afternoon and evening will bring on one of the bumps in our upcoming weather road. A pretty strong cold front will approach. You'll notice increasing humidity and increasing clouds as we head into the afternoon. We have two potential problems with this cold front. 

The first is the risk of severe weather. As is usually the case, just like we saw on Friday, we might not know for sure whether severe storms develop or not until shortly before they're scheduled. So far, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the best chances of strong or severe storms down in the Mid-Atlantic states with just a marginal risk in Vermont. 

But - as noted - the forecast could shift. Stay tuned to this bat channel for updates. If we do see anything severe, it would be in the late afternoon or early evening. 

The other problem is heavy rain and the risk of a few local flash flood problems, mostly north.  This won't be anything widespread, but a few spots could get bullseyed by a series of heavy downpours. NOAA has northern Vermont north of Route 2 under a marginal risk of flash floods tomorrow, 

A handful of places could get one, two, even three inches of rain in a short period of time. But most of us should see much less. In general, most places north will see about a half inch of rain, give or take ad the south should see a little less than half an inch. 

Again, this forecast could change and the amount of rain everyone gets should be super variable. Like yesterday's sprinkles in St. Albans and downpours in adjacent Sheldon. 

NEXT WEEK

It'll be much cooler, that's for sure. And mostly nice. Skies Monday and Tuesday should be at least partly sunny. Broader valleys would be mostly sunny. Highs should only reach the 70s with lows in the comfortable 50s.  Delightful unless you prefer the tropical heat we had yesterday. 

By Wednesday, showers could creep in ahead of our next big bump in the road. Thursday could turn rather stormy. 

Low pressure systems and storms are generally weak in the summer. Sure, you can get wild thunderstorms along otherswise wimpy cold fronts and near lame areas of low pressure, but the actual storm systems on the weather maps are usually pretty feeble this time of year.  

However, a strong storm for June looks like it would head at least sort of this way for Thursday. It's too soon to know exactly what this means for us, but depending on where the storm goes we could get quite a bit of rain, gusty non-thunderstorm winds or strong thunderstorms. Or maybe even nothing remarkable at all. Stay tuned!

Near Record Highs, Strong Thunderstorms In Vermont Today

A large part of the eastern U.S., including
most of Vermont, is under a level 2
slight risk of severe thunderstorms today. 
Level 2 out of 5 risk levels is 
in the yellow shaded areas. 

Heat and storms is the story today, as our hot weather peaks and a what is technically considered a cold front lurks to our west today.
 

We got a preview yesterday as the heat over-performed in at least some places. 

The heat over-performed a bit on Thursday, Burlington reached 91 degrees. It was a little sunnier than expected during the afternoon, which helped raise the temperatures a bit. .

Burlington tied the record for lowest high for the date Thursday, with a muggy low of 71 degrees. 

Storms were also thankfully more lackluster than expected on Thursday. 

A few small storms popped up here and there, but didn't amount to much, just some local downpours in a handful of spots. Then we get into today, which should be dreadful 

TODAY

Stormy and hot and humid is the word. Definitely a busy day. Most of us should get through much of the day without storms. They should become a problem later in the day.

Heat

The low temperature -  if you can call it that - this morning was 73 degrees in Burlington. If that holds through midnight, which is iffy, we'll have another record high "low" temperature for the date. 

That sets the stage or record highs, which we have a good shot at  being tied or broken. 

 The expected high temperature in Burlington is 95 or 96 degrees. The record high for today is 94 set in 2017. In Montpelier, the expected high today is 93 04 94 or so.  The record high there today is 88 degrees.

St. Johnsbury probably won't break their record high, but they should get close.  The record high there is 94 degrees, and the forecast high is in the low 90s.  In southeast Vermont, in the lower Connecticut River Valley, highs today are expected to be in the 93 to 96 degree range. 

Needless to say, heat advisories are in effect for low elevations in western and southeast Vermont. Other parts of the state don't quite it the criteria for a heat advisory, but it will be close.  It will be a dangerous day for vigorous outdoor activity. Stay in the shade if you can, drink plenty of fluids,  and stay in the air conditioning if at all possible.  

Today would be a great day to "kidnap" your elderly neighbor, relative or friend who does not have air conditioning in their house. Take them to a cool movie, or a restaurant with drafty air conditioning. They'll need it. 

Storms

We started this morning with a few showers and downpours across eastern Vermont, but that's not the main show. 

Things should begin to fire up  this afternoon.  The heat and humidity puts us on a hair trigger for fast developing storms.  It doesn't take much to set off some instant potentially strong thunderstorms in this environment.  

However, the actual triggers for storms today are  somewhat lacking. You need strong winds aloft that change direction with elevation to really get a severe weather outbreak going. 

We're sort of missing  the strong upper winds. Also, the "cold front" is coming through basically in pieces later today and tonight, so there's no big change of air. And it's barely cooler behind the front. 

All that is working against severe weather. But not preventing it. 

The models still disagree as of this morning about how many storms will form, and how bad they'll be, ad how they'll behave.  Something called the HRRR (a rapid refresh model that's updated every hour) has a fair number of storms, some possibly severe entering western Vermont by mid-afternoon. Other models wait until early evening to bring on the storms.  

The American computer model seems to think today will turn into something of a yawner. I'm not buying the American model, really. (The American model doesn't provide as much detail as some of the others). Other models bring in some potential strong storms, but not as aggressively as the HRRR. Pick your poison. 

I think the end result is a few of us will end up blasted by strong to severe storms. Many of us will at least hear thunder and get some rain, maybe a downpour.  Some towns will get nothing at all. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center pretty much has nearly all of Vermont in a slight risk for severe storms. That's a level 2 out of 5 risk. It means scattered severe storms are a good bet. Far eastern Vermont as of early this morning was in a level 1 marginal risk of isolated severe storms. 

This risk zone might be updated or changed later this morning. The key is the upper level winds. If they're even more lame than forecast, the risk of bad storms goes down. .If those winds increase, so does the risk of wild storms. Stay tuned on that as well. 

As always, we don't know who gets the severe storms until right before it happens. Between the heat, humidity and the storm risk, jettison your hiking plans.  Making today more complicated, the lack of high winds aloft means a severe storm could develop in a snap, then choke itself off quickly, only to be replaced by another strong storm not all that far away. 

Have a way to receive severe storm warnings. And, to be Captain Obvious once again, if you see dark clouds and hear thunder, it's time to get off the water, off the beach, out of the garden and head indoors.

Any storms that do form could have really torrential downpours. That could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed us in a marginal risk zone for such floods. The vast majority of us will be fine, but again, you'll won't know where the damaging gullywashers will hit until they actually arrive.  

I'd say a storm could pop off anytime after about noon, but the best chances are from about 3 to 8 p.m. or so. 

WEEKEND

We're calling it a "cold front" coming through later Friday but that's pretty highfalutin way of describing the lame thing that's actually arriving. Sure, it will fire up some storms today, as mentioned. But when it's oppressively steamy out there, it doesn't take much to get storms going. 

The truth of the matter is it won't really be "colder" behind our cold front. The temperature will drop a few degrees, but it will stay awfully warm. It will be less humid, but not exactly bone-dry, either. 

Some details:

Saturday: 

Very warm and sunny, a perfect summer day in Vermont. Highs should get up into the mid and upper 80s, so it should be a nice beach or swimming hole day. A few puffy clouds might decorate the skies, making it all the more scenic . 

Sunday

Very warm to hot again. A few places in the lower Connecticut Valley and Champlain Valley could reach 90 degrees again. But a cold front will be approaching. A real one this time. It looks like the front will stir up a bunch of shower and thunderstorms again during the afternoon. We're waiting on more information, but for now, there's a chance of a few severe storms too. 

In fact, there might be a better chance of severe storms Sunday than we have today. We'll provide updates as we get closer to the event. 

EARLY WEEK

Behind the honest to goodness real cold front, it will, turn, obviously, cooler. But not cold. This won't really be weather whiplash. Instead, we'll see highs generally in the 70s for the first half of the week, maybe ticking up toward 80 degrees once we get toward Wednesday.   

A storm spinning up near Hudson Bay might swing a few light showers our way during the first half of the week, but it won't be anything to worry about. It'll be dry most of the time.