Drought Developing In Northern Vermont

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor indicates
drought conditions have started in
the Northeast Kingdom (orange shading)
Yellow areas are abnormally dry, which
is a precursor to drought. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, released Thursday, indicate a new drought has developed in northeastern Vermont 

About 13 percent of the state is now in drought, the report noted. The area in drought in in western Essex County, northern Caledonia County and eastern Orleans County. 

The area of abnormal dryness, which is a precursor to drought, also expanded over the past week. The dry area is in most northern Vermont, and in eastern Vermont north of White River Junction. 

As of Tuesday, when the drought data is compiled, nearly 42 percent of the state was abnormally dry or in drought. Last week, 32 percent of Vermont was abnormally dry.

This is the first time any part of the state has been in drought since the week of May 14, when the lower Connecticut Valley south of White River Junction was in drought. Heavy rain erased that area of drought during the second half of May. 

Yesterday, a little rain fell in parts of the Northeast Kingdom during some thunderstorms, but the rain didn't amount to much. Mostly a quarter inch or less. A few pinpoint spots with a little more, but the rain won't change the drought. 

Short term, over the next week or two are somewhat encouraging in terms of rainfall. We have numerous chances of rain over the next two weeks, but it's unclear how heavy that rain might be. 

Once we get into September, chances increase that storm systems create a more widespread, steady rain rather than the hit and miss thunderstorms we see in the summer.

That said, Septembers can be quite dry.  Large high pressure systems often slow down or stall over northern New England and southeast Canada in the early autumn. That creates many consecutive days of dry weather. If several such high pressure systems appear, droughts can easily intensify. 

This drought is not nearly as bad as the one that hit last summer and autumn. The current drought in the Northeast Kingdom is considered "moderate."  By October of last year, virtually all of Vermont was experiencing major or extreme drought. 

It would take a very strong shift toward almost no rain to see a repeat of last year. 

Once Again, Close Miss With The Storms In Vermont, Much Calmer Weather Coming In Today, Tomorrow

A likely tornado near Wilton, NY on
Thursday. The storm was only about
25 miles west of the Vermont border at
the time. The storm that produced the
probable tornado ended up in northern
 Bennington County, Vermont later,
but it had weakened
considerably by then, causing
little or no damage in Vermont, 

It looks like Vermont escaped much trouble from the volatile atmosphere over the region yesterday, but it was another close call.  

The only damage report I've seen in Vermont so far is in Westmore, not too far from the western shore of  Lake Willoughby.  A couple of pine trees were tossed down by severe thunderstorm winds very late in the afternoon. 

Things were much worse early last evening  a little west of Vermont in Saratoga County, New York

A likely tornado touched sown around Wilton, New York. The town is between Saratoga Springs and Glens Falls, New York and a little less than 30 miles west of the Vermont border near Rupert. 

Video on social media shows what appears to be a tornado funnel looking north from Saratoga Springs amid what is clearly a severe thunderstorm. The video also appears to show intense rear flank downdraft winds behind the possible tornado. 

The second floor of  house in Wilton was damaged, and numerous trees were reported down. Additional tree damage was reported across several spots in Gansvoort, which is about five miles east of Wilton. 

The tornado appears to have crossed  Interstate 87 (the Northway) near Wilton and Gansvoort. Fallen trees closed travel lanes.   

So far, no injuries have been reported.

The National Weather Service office in Albany, New York is headed out to Saratoga County today, especially around the town of Wilton  for a look-see to determine for sure whether that was a tornado, or just severe, damaging winds. 

The supercell that caused the likely tornado in New York continued on toward Bennington County, Vermont but weakened as it did so. I've not seen any damage reports out of southwest Vermont from the storm. 

We have an interlude of calmer weather coming in. No more tornadoes for the foreseeable future. Let's get into the daily forecasts

TODAY

One last cold front with this latest weather system is coming through today. We started out with relatively mild air, along with moderately high humidity. 

That won't last. 

The front might fire up some widely scattered showers or even a rumble of thunder in a few places. But those showers won't amount to much and many places won't see any rain at all in the north. There's a high chance that almost nobody in southern Vermont will see any rain, either. 

It's too bad there won't be widespread rain. we need it. Spoiler: I'll have more on the lack of rain in a separate post later today. 

The bonus with this front is we'll get another whoosh  of pleasant weather. This will arguably be the coolest air we've seen since early June. .Cold fronts are starting to have more oomph now as we get near September. 

Highs today will only be in the low 70s north. Southern valleys could make it to around 80 degrees as they will be the last to see the cold front. Much cooler and less humid air will keep flowing in this evening. 

SATURDAY

Still looking like a beauty. It'll start off chilly. Another sign of autumn. Most of us will be in the 40s at dawn. There could be a couple upper 30s in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom and Adirondacks. Readings near Lake Champlain will be in the low 50s. 

As usual on calm mornings this time of year, we'll start the day with patchy dense fog. But that'll burn off quickly to reveal a sunny, comfortable day. Some puffy clouds will decorate the sky, especially over the mountains. If you are in the mountains, I guess it'll be only partly sunny. Highs should reach the 70s pretty much area wide. 

No complaints, though. If you were planning an outdoor event for Saturday, the weather gods are totally with you. 

SUNDAY

Another cold front should approach Vermont from Quebec and Ontario. It'll set off clouds and maybe some showers north, but it should still be an OK day, as it looks now. The front is expected to stall in a northwest to southeast orientation somewhere near the Green Mountain State Sunday night. This has implications for the weather next week.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY

That stalled front will meander somewhere over the Northeast, but it's unclear exactly where. It's also unknown how little disturbances running along the front will behave, and whether this means any decent rains for Vermont.  

A weather set up like this caused some flooding in Rutland County, Vermont in early September, 1985, but flooding from this coming weather pattern is very much a long shot. I wouldn't worry about it. 

A possible second cold front will probably sweep it all away maybe next Thursday or Friday. Stay tuned.  

Thursday Evening Update: Strong Thunderstorms Just Moving Into Vermont As Of 5 p.m

A busy National Weather Service radar as of shortly before
5:45 p.m. today. Quite a few storms in New York headed
into Vermont at that hour. Still a chance that one or two
of them could be severe this evening. 

 The storms we expected in Vermont are generally slightly later than we expected, but they are firing up. 

A couple storms did form ahead of the main batch. On strong thunderstorm zipped through part of southeastern Vermont earlier this afternoon. 

Late this afternoon, a batch of thunderstorms developed in the Northeast Kingdom, At 5:11 p.m., a severe thunderstorm warning went up southeast of Newport, with gusts of 60 mph possibly. 

However, the bulk of the severe weather, as originally expected, looks like it will stay mostly to the southwest. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for central and eastern New York, and that watch extends into Bennington County, Vermont.

A watch means there could be a severe storm. A warning means a severe storm is happening or is about to.

Storms should move through Vermont over the next few hours.  

As of 5:30 p.m., the storm I'm watching the most was approaching Glens Falls, New York from the southwest. It was carrying a severe thunderstorm warning. That rotating storm prompted a tornado warning, issued at 5:45 p.m., for an area a little north and west of Saratoga Springs, New York.

If it holds together, it could spell real trouble. Most likely in southern Rutland County or northern Bennington County if it keeps going on its current projections.

Overall, the weather setup this evening isn't perfect for severe storms, as there's a variety of weak weather fronts around that are keeping thunderstorms from becoming focused and strong. But there's enough potential for the risk of a few more strong to maybe severe storms for the rest of this evening. 

These storms are popping up quickly and sometimes fading quickly only to rebuild, so expect a few little surprises with storms for the next few hours. This could happen anywhere in Vermont. The vast majority of us will not see severe weather. But an isolated spot or two might. Other areas could see some relatively strong storms with gusty winds, even if they don't quite meet the criteria for severe storms. 

Things should taper off nicely by later this evening, with only widely scattered, light showers overnight. 

There might be a few more scattered showers and maybe a rumble or two of thunder tomorrow morning and early afternoon as a secondary cold front comes through. Things should whoosh toward much less humid air later in the day. 

As El Nino Builds, July Tied For World's Hottest On Record, August Running Super Hot, Too

The world tied the record for the hottest July, according
to NOAA. If anything, August might be even 
further above normal as El Nino takes hold

As I noted in a previous post, El Nino is building on climate change to bring the world's temperatures to new heights. 

While we're heading into the last days of August, we see the July data is fully available. 

Data released about a week ago indicated July, 2026 tied with 2024 as the hottest on record. This is according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information.  Since July is normally the world's hottest month of the year, so 2026 and 2024 are the world's hottest month on record. 

The Julys of 2023, 2024 and 2026 were the only Julys that were 1 degree or more Celsius above the pre-industrial average. 

Climate change has been going on for quiet awhile now, it's just accelerating lately.  For instance, the last time the world had a July that was at least a little bit cooler than average was in 1971.  

Land areas in the Northern Hemisphere were easily the hottest on record, breaking the previous 2024 record by 0.12 degrees Celsius, or 0.22 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Hot Oceans

Even more ominously, global ocean temperatures reached a record high for July. About 70 percent of the world is covered by oceans. Heat is released into the atmosphere, where it causes mischief in the form of record heat, droughts, and unusually vicious storms.

Overall, on average, world ocean temperatures peak in the spring, then declines until June, then rise to a secondary peak in early August, then slowly begins to decline again, 

This year, the global average ocean temperature rose rapidly since July, reaching an all time record of 21.1 degrees C as of August 21.  This odd late season increase has almost everything to do with the burgeoning El Nino. But since ocean temperatures were already elevated by climate change, it was easy for the oceans breaking records. 

Relative to average, the warmest places were most of North America, Greenland and Iceland, western Europe, Central Africa, northwest Asia, parts of Russia and Siberia. 

As usual in this climate-changed world, there were few areas that were on the cold side, and most of the "cold" areas were just barely, compared to the 20th century averages. The cool areas were Alaska, the persistent cold blob in the Atlantic south of Iceland, parts of Antarctica, and, marginally, parts of northern and central Europe. 

UNITED STATES

The Lower 48 of the United States had its 
hottest month on record in July. All states
were warmer than average.

In the United States, we had the hottest month on record in the Lower 48. Not just hottest July, ,though the month is usually the hottest of the year.   

Every state in the Lower 48 was warmer than normal, which is an extreme rarity. Even when the Lower 48 has an overall warm month, a few states are at least a little cooler than normal. 

While everyplace was warm, the hottest relative to average were in the central and northern Rockies and in the northern Plains. 

When you add up all the states that were way warmer than normal and sort of warmer than normal, we end up with the hottest month on record for the Lower 48. 

Wyoming had its hottest July on record. Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and North Dakota had their second hottest July on record. A total of 18 states had one of their top ten warmest Julys on record. Vermont had its 31st hottest July on record. 

Overall, the Lower 48 was drier than normal. Typical of summer the wet areas and dry areas were pretest spotty and random. 

Despite the dry theme, there were intense local floods, including in the Texas Hill Country and in the Northeast. 

New England had some of the most extreme disparities in precipitation. Southern New England was wet, with Rhode Island seeing its sixth wettest July on record. By contrast, Maine had its fourth driest July on record. 

Vermont had its 47 driest July out of the past 132 years. 

Meanwhile, August around the world has been running super hot. It's widely expected to be the hottest on record. We'll have updates, of course, when complete data for August becomes available.  

Vermont Severe Storm Risk, Possible Local Flash Flood Issue, Too.

Areas in dark green and yellow have chances of severe
thunderstorms today. Areas in yellow have a somewhat
greater chance of severe storms than in the
dark green areas. 

We're in for another active day of weather across  Vermont today, but as always, there will be winners and losers. 

A handful of places could get too much wind, too much hail, too much rain, too much lightning. A few other places won't get the rain they need. 

We'll have a storm risk all day, but the big hours to watch will between 3 and 8 p.m. All of Vermont has at least a small risk of isolated severe storms. The best chance of severe storms will be west of the Green Mountains from Middlebury south. 

But, again, anyone in Vermont and surrounding areas could have a severe storm today. 

A warm front is working northward through Vermont this morning. That front could touch off some scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning. I noticed on radar a few small downpours near Glens Falls, New York heading northeastward toward Vermont as of 8 a.m. today.

You'll notice the humidity increase rapidly this morning and early this afternoon as we get the ingredients in place for this afternoon's expected rough weather. 

The storms will probably come through in lines or clusters, with damaging winds the main threat.   There is a very, very low chance that one or two storms could start rotating enough to produce a brief spin up tornado.  It's been that kind of summer. 

Another issue is the risk of local flash flooding. The ground is dry enough so that a few downpours shouldn't cause any issues. However, we could get some "training" storms, the ones that line up and go one right after another over the same spot, like boxcars moving along a train track. 

If there is any flash flooding, it will be in pretty small local areas. Nothing widespread with this. The best chance of local flooding should be in the southern half of Vermont. As an early guess, I'd be tempted to especially watch Rutland and Windsor counties. But we can't completely rule out some water mischief in the north, either.

So, we have the usual advice. It's probably not the best day to head out onto the lake or go hiking in the Green Mountains. Pay attention to the sky. Dark clouds gathering to the west? Rumbles of thunder? That's your cue to get indoors. 

As always, the National Weather Service will issue warnings and advisories as needed, and the local TV stations will cut in to broadcasting to provide updates if parts of the state are under threat of a bad storm. 

This probably won't be the most extensive severe weather outbreak ever, or even the most extensive one of this stormy summer. But it is something to take seriously if severe weather threatens.  

FRIDAY

The actual cold front should go through tomorrow morning, with not much fanfare. There could be some showers in the morning. The front might be slow enough so that it could squeak out a weak thunderstorm in southeast Vermont, but no biggie.  Then some clearing and more refreshing air arrive in the afternoon and evening. 

SATURDAY

Another winning weather Saturday is in the cards. Dawn will break cool, with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 50.  A lot of river valleys will be pretty foggy, too. But the fog will burn off to sunny skies with afternoon highs in the 70s. The humidity will stay at refreshing levels, too,

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

It looks like we'll be in a zone Sunday afternoon and into the week where a weather front will either windshield wiper back and forth, north to south and back north again for a few days. Or it will stall sort of near us. 

That make it hard to forecast this far in advance. Suffice it to say we'll have daily shower chances Sunday through Tuesday at least.

Interestingly, NOAA's six to ten day weather outlook, issued every day in mid afternoon, has swung decided warm and wet for the opening days of September. It's a long range forecast, so things could change. But it does point toward the chance of some weird late season severe weather to open up the first few days of the new month. 

 

Dolly Parton Was Generous During Weather And Climate Disasters, Too

Dolly Parton, who died Tuesday at the age of 80, was
a generous philanthropist who gave away millions
of dollars. That included money to victims of 
weather and climate disasters. 

We're all reeling from the passing of Dolly Parton, that bundle of energy and joy, who, with her thoughtful songwriting, her exuberant public image and her philanthropy, made her an absolute national treasure. 

Her generosity has been widely reported.  The most cited example is her Imagination Library, which has provided more than 300 million books to children in the United States and other nations. 

Parton stepped up when weather and climate disasters hit, too. Especially when they affected the area where she was born and raised. 

On November 28, 2016, a raging wildfire swept into Gatlinburg, Tennessee and surrounding areas of Sevier County, Tennessee. It caused 14 deaths, 130 injuries, burned 1,684 structures and forced, 14,000 people to evacuate from the East Tennessee mountain tourist destination.

Parton was on tour when the fires hit, and she called right after the wildfires and asked what can we do and bow quickly can we do it, said David Dotson, CEO of Dollywood Foundation in a 2018 interview.

As Blue Ridge Public Radio reported: 

"The My People's fund (part of Parton's philanthropy) gave $1,000 per month to about 900 families impacted by the fire - regardless of income - for six months. But the Dollywood Foundation received so many donations they increased the amount to $5,000 a month. They also opened an additional organization called Mountain Tough to help families on a case-by-case basis and clean up homesites." 

In total, $12.5 million dollars went to the people of Sevier County from the foundation." 

In September, 2024, the devastating floods from Hurricane Helene spilled over into far eastern Tennessee's the waters raged through neighboring North Carolina. The day of the floods, she announced $1 million donation, matched buy her Dollywood companies and their partners.  

Oddly enough, the next hurricane on the list of this year's Atlantic storms will be named Dolly. That wasn't a decision made upon her death. The hurricane names were planned out years ago. There is currently a weather disturbance in east-central tropical Atlantic Ocean that might or might not develop into Tropical Storm Dolly. 

Forecasters are unsure whether that storm will form, and if it does, how strong it might get and where it might go.

North Carolina Emergency Management said in a Facebook statement that if a Hurricane Dolly, or any other storm threatens your care, maybe we can help a neighbor, a friend, or a loved one prepare for the storm. Maybe we can buy stuff for someone's disaster preparedness kit,  all in the spirit of Dolly Parton's generosity. 

The following Dolly Parton quote can be applied to a storm or any other situation: "We cannot direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails."

 

A Gorgeous Vermont Wednesday, Storm Risk Thursday And Another Sign Of Autumn?

A very of Jay Peak on a lovely late afternoon yesterday
as viewed from near Enosburgh, Vermont. 

 OK, Tuesday's weather wasn't bad at all, as a low morning overcast in parts of Vermont broke up into puffy clouds mixed with blue skies. And it was cool, or at least cool-ish, with a hint of autumn in the air.  

After a comfortable night, we have a beauty on the way to day, with sunshine, low humidity and comfortable afternoon temperatures into the 70s to around 80. 

Today will be the 17th day in a row with a remarkable stretch of steady temperatures. Daily high temperatures in Burlington have ranged only nine degrees between 73 and 82 degrees.

That steady streak might be slightly broken tomorrow. You't think that since we're headed toward fall, it would be a cool high temperature. Nope, it might be on the warm side. 

Here are the details on Thursday, since it will be kind of a busy day. 

THURSDAY

South winds will import warmer, more humid air into Vermont. The expected high temperature in Burlington is 84 degrees. That's nothing special for late August but still the warmest since August 9. 

A cold front will be approaching.  The combination of that front, the warmth and the humidity, as is so often the case in the summer, is a recipe for thunderstorms. Especially since the front will be approaching  during peak heating in the afternoon. 

As nice as this summer has been in Vermont, it's also been a stormy one, and it's looking like we have another round to go through.

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has Vermont in a marginal risk, a one out of five alert level for severe storms. That means we might see some isolated instances of damming winds or hail Thursday afternoon or evening. 

The SPC even has us in a very, very low, but not zero risk of another tornado in Vermont. We've already had two tornadoes, and at least three close misses with tornado weather, the most recent of which was during severe weather in Franklin County back on August 10.

 It does look like there's a slightly higher chance of severe storms a little to our south, in central New York and eastern Pennsylvania, and we'll keep an eye out on whether that somewhat higher alert level moves north toward us. 

As always with these thunderstorms, it will be hit and miss. Some of us will get nailed with lightning, wind and downpours and others will be left out. In general, we'll probably only get a quarter to a half inch of rain, with a few spots getting cheated out of any rain at all, and a very few others getting a good inch of rain if they get hit by more than one thunderstorms. 

FRIDAY

Cold fronts bring colder air - duh! - so it will be cooler. It's still August, so don't reach for the ski parkas and ear muffs, it won't get that cold. Highs will be in the 70s, under partly sunny skies. There might be some lingering light showers, and the day may prove rather cloudy over the northern Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom. 

There might even be a rumble of thunder or two mixed with with the showers. But overall, rainfall will be light. The vast majority of us will get less than a tenth of an inch of rain. Some places will get nothing, or just sprinkles. 

And here's another subtle sign of autumn: The temperature in Burlington might go under 50 degrees Friday night and early Saturday for the first time since June 3.  This might among the longest times   spent Burlington has ever spent above 50 degrees on record, but it's not the record longest.

It was continuously above 50 degrees from June 6 to September 21, 2023, for instances. A few other summers in the past decade or two have had long stretches above 50 like this, but it used to be unheard of. We're living in a warmer world now.

SATURDAY

Our trend of lovely Vermont summer Saturdays continues. After a cool start (see above) with patchy fog in the valleys, it should turn sunny and mild, with low humidity once again.  At least if current forecasts are correct. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

So far, Sunday is looking like another gorgeous day before shower chances return on Monday. How the showers play out early next week is still a big question mark, but it's nothing to worry about for now.