Another Below Zero Morning In Vermont. This Weeks Climb Toward Spring Features......Complications

The nice thing about March is the sun is stronger than it was
earlier in the winter so it makes a difference. The sun 
started melting a dusting of snow off my driveway
quickly yesterday, despite temperatures in the teens.
Today will be cold, too, but the sun will make it feel better

Vermont's journey this week out of midwinter bitter cold to what I would call "false spring" is going to be an uneven one. 

On that journey, expect some decidedly not-so-springlike weather including snow, freezing rain, and the possibility that the promised eventual warm air will be taken away from us. 

BELOW ZERO AGAIN

We start today bitter cold, as expected. It was below zero everywhere. It was generally a bit colder in northern New York State than in Vermont.

The center of the Arctic high pressure was a little to Vermont's west most of the night. The air remained calm longer closer to the high pressure's center in New York, so it was colder there.

I don't have the final word on low temperatures as of this writing, but perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York got down to 24 below. It was in the mid and upper teens below zero in the St. Lawrence Valley. 

 Light north winds lasted longer in Vermont, so temperatures didn't fall as fast earlier last night, but started to crash faster toward dawn as winds went calm here, too. 

So far, Lake Eden, Vermont is winning the cold sweepstakes, as they got to any least 18 below this morning. Morrisville wasn't far behind at 14 below.

Burlington was down to 2 below, This isn't record cold, of course. Burlington missed the record low (set in 1980) by a full 16 degrees. The coldest it's ever been in Vermont is 37 below, here in St. Albans on March 4, 1938.  Not happening this year, thank gawd!

This morning was the 16th time this winter it was at or below zero in Burlington. That's more than in many recent years, but it's not that out of whack, even compared to the past couple of climate-changed "warmer " winters.

Seven of the past 20 years have had as many or more days that were zero or colder. With any luck, this will be the last subzero morning in Burlington until next winter. 

So, moving on from the cold......

TODAY, TOMORROW

Expected accumulation of snow from a quick, small storm
later Tuesday and Tuesday night. It's a small one, with
only one to three inches south, less in the north. 

The good news is it's going to warm up a lot by this afternoon. The bad news is "a lot" is still pretty damn cold for this time of year. 

But highs within a few degrees either side of 20 degrees with light winds and a stronger March sun won't feel too bad.

The temperature will again begin to crash this evening, but high clouds, a bit of a southwesterly breeze and just the general air mass warming up will prevent many of us going below zero. 

It will warm up further tomorrow as temperatures rise into the 30s. But it will come at a cost. A small storm will spread another burst of snow across much of Vermont later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Luckily, it will be a light, wet snow that may not even arrive at all north of Route 2. 

In any event, southern Vermont should just receive one to three inches of snow, with anywhere between nothing and an inch north. 

SPRINGLIKE, THEN ICE?

At this point, Wednesday looks like the pick of the week. We should see a fair amount of sunshine with temperatures popping up to the low 40s for most of us. That'll at least melt the little bit of snow we would have gotten the night before. 

At first glance, it seems like the next mid-sized storm Thursday night into Friday would be rain. But there's a problem. Very strong, very cold high pressure will set up in northern Quebec. It will feed low level cold air down into northern New England, setting us up for freezing rain. 

It's too soon to say who will get the freezing rain, how much will accumulate and weather and snow or sleet will be involved as well. But beware, Thursday night and Friday might be problematic. Stay tuned on that. 

NEXT WEEKEND HINTS

It should finally warm up to springlike levels next weekend. It could even get into the 50s.  We'll have to start watching the rivers for ice breakups and ice jams. Luckily, it looks like any rain we might get will be light, so that won't add much to our worries. We'll have more details when we get closer to the event. 

March weather can be pretty psychotic. Things change at the drop of a hat. We'll witness some of that this week.