A Bout Of Icy Weather In Some Parts Of Vermont Then a Brief, Warm Interlude

We can't quite shake winter. Areas in yellow and orange
can expect a glaze of ice tonight before much warmer
air arrives tomorrow, 

 It's another overcast morning in Vermont, with some rain falling far southern sections of the states. 

The wide-ranging temperatures we saw over the past few days have finally evened up for now. 

Pretty much the whole state started today in the low to mid 30s. Early April in Vermont can be a little like November. But at least we're not facing along winter like we would be in November, so we have that optimism. 

Although it was cold enough this morning for snow in southern Vermont, there's warm air aloft, so it's rain. Some sleet might be mixing in at a few spots, but web cams so far show little direct evidence of that. Still, a special weather statement notes the risk of freezing rain this morning, mostly at elevations above 2,000 feet in the southern Greens. 

That warm overhead cold surface have wintry implications for tonight. It's April, but here in Vermont that doesn't necessarily mean wintry weather is over 

A winter weather advisory is for Vermont from the Green Mountains east and from about Springfield north to the Canadian border tonight. 

It's the same problem we've frequently had in late winter and early spring. Warm air is trying to push in, but cold high pressure in Quebec is feeding in low level cold air. The result is the risk of freezing rain

We know there won't be much precipitation of any kinds, and what does fall over and east of the Green Mountains won't be entirely freezing rain. 

However, as usual in these cases, the freezing rain will be spotty. If you're driving anywhere in the winter weather advisory zone overnight and early Friday, you'll encounter patches of ice alternating with above freezing areas, so this will keep you on your toes.

Western Vermont should be too warm for freezing rain.  Some of the overnight showers north and west could actually contain a rumble of thunder or two. That's not exactly a sure bet, but since it's spring, thunder is beginning to become more possible with storm systems. 

WEEKEND

It will warm up really quickly Friday as a warm front blows by, so any freezing rain will stop being an annoyance pretty early in the day. There should be showers around especially during the first half of the day and especially north an west as another storm blows by far to our north. 

The cold front with this storm will be incredibly lame, so not chilly air will be able to work in. Which means Saturday should be fairly mild with highs into the 50s. As the next storm approaches Sunday, the chances of showers will ramp up. It'll stay on the warm-ish side as we once again reach the 50s 

 BEYOND THE WEEKEND:

Unfortunately, we can't sustain spring quite yet. The first half of April is known for its excursions back to winter. 

So, at least the first half of next week will be cold, with highs in the 30s and 40s with subfreezing temperatures overnight. That might keep the sugaring season going on a little longer in parts of the state that haven't had too much warm weather yet. 

And let's face it, the chill early next week won't be anything extreme. We can still have huge snowstorm this time of year, and historically, record cold would mean temperatures in the single numbers to low teens. 

Neither of which will happen next week,  Our world will soon green up regardless of whether we get a little cold air or not.

Tuesday Evening Vermont Weather Update: Shockingly Warm Today, Still Expected Yo-Yo Temperatures Now Through Thursday

Henry the Weather Dog on Tuesday got to do something
he hasn't really been able to do since October: Bask in the
warm sun. You can sort of see him smiling there
he was so happy 

The warmth in Vermont and surrounding areas really over-performed today, didn't it? 

It felt almost like summer. Henry the Weather Dog was able to bask in the warm sun for the first time since October. He was one happy camper!

I think some compressional warming ahead of the cold front that entered northern Vermont this afternoon helped boost the temperatures. The front, as it pushed southward, sort of squeezed the air, i.e. compressing it. When air compresses it tends to warm up. 

Whatever caused it, things were incredibly balmy.  Burlington reached 73 degrees, according to preliminary data. That  shatters the previous record high of 63 set in 2002. It's also the hottest temperature for so early in the season. Those "so early" or "so late" in the season record highs are especially hard to achieve. But Burlington managed it today. 

Other record highs include 63 degrees in Plattsburgh, NY; 71 degrees (wow!) in St. Johnsbury (old record was 64 in 2016);  and 67 in Montpelier, old record 60 in 2016). 

 Rutland and Springfield got up to at least 70 degrees, Bennington was at least 73 degrees. So much for my prediction this morning that there was just a chance a place or two in Vermont might reach 70.  Instead it was pretty widespread. 

The temperatures I listed are not final figures, so they might be updated later.  

COLDER AIR

I mentioned the cold front. Once it arrives it means business. Highgate was one of the first Vermont towns to see the cold front. They got up to 66 degrees at around 1:30 and were down to 51 buy 5 p.m. Burlington dropped ten degrees to 59 in the hour ending at 5 p.m. 

In most of central and northern Vermont, temperatures will bottom out in the 30s, and it'll get below freezing in some spots north of Route 2.  The northern Champlain Valley has the best shot at going below freezing. 

A winter weather advisory is still in effect for Grand Isle County late tonight and tomorrow morning for the risk of light freezing rain.  There could be some icy spots on the roads tomorrow morning there. And perhaps elsewhere in far northern Vermont. 

At least Vermont will miss out on the worst of this ice storm. Far northwest New York, southern Quebec from Ottawa to Montreal to Sherbrooke, northern and Central Maine and even northern Michigan. 

 WEDNESDAY

A large ice jam was still holding firm along the Missisquoi
River in Enosburg as of late this morning. 
Ice jams and regular flooding are a threat through
Thursday with more snow melt and expected rain. 

It does look like our storm will go by to our northwest, which means winds should shift to southerly during the day tomorrow. 

Highs should get into the 50s in western Vermont, maybe even low 60s southwest. The warmer air will have a bit of a harder time getting into eastern Vermont, but it will be above freezing. 

It probably won't rain much during the day except in the northwest. But today's warmth, lingering ice jams, snow melt and that rain will keep the risk of flooding going into Thursday. 

I noticed late this morning a large ice jam was holding pretty firm on the Missisquoi River in Enosburg , and it was causing minor flooding. 

Thursday will turn sharply colder and windy. And an active weather pattern will continue afterward. I'll have much more on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

 

Flood Watch, Ice, Rain And Temperature Gyrations Galore In Vermont

An ice jam seen here along the Great 
Chazy River in Moores, New York
badly damaging a campground
Vermont continues to be at risk
for ice jams and flooding, too.

It's going to be almost impossible to write this post without being confusing as temperatures and weather conditions are going to be all over the place over the next day or two. 

Almost literally wait a minute and it will change in some places.

The bottom line is there is a flood watch through Thursday afternoon. And our spring weather will fade over the next couple days amid rain, and even freezing rain. Then a little snow to top if off. Then more storms through next Monday. 

I told you it was complicated. 

YESTERDAY

Temperatures did over-perform somewhat Monday, just as I expected. Most forecasters predicted highs Monday to get up to around 60 degrees. Instead, most places got into the 60s. Rutland reached 68 degrees.

It was 65 degrees in Burlington, which made Monday the warmest day since October 20. Ice jams are still out there, the snow is still melting, so the flood watch continues today, tomorrow and into Thursday.   

TODAY

The warmth party will start to end north of Route 2 this afternoon. That weird cold front is north of Montreal and heading steadily south, driven by another frigid high pressure over northern Quebec. If you remember, we went through the same thing last week. 

This time, today's temperatures will zoom upward this morning, and then get cut off at the pass by the low level cold air coming south. It'll be most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley and some areas near the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom. In those areas, temperatures will fall, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into tonight. 

A couple light showers might accompany the cold front in the north. 

In central and southern Vermont the cold front won't be noticeable until tonight, and not to the extent you'll see in the north. Highs will get well into the 60s today. A spot 70 degree reading is entirely out the question.

TONIGHT:

Here's where things get complicated. It looks like it will cool off enough in far northern Vermont where we will probably end up with some freezing rain, especially in the northern Champlain Valley. That's a real cold slap to end our beautiful "false spring"

So far, it doesn't look like much ice will accumulate. But it's tricky, because it's hard to tell how extensive and persistent this thin layer of cold air near the ground will be. That will determine how much ice there is. A winter weather advisory is up for Grand Isle County. That advisory goes from 11 p.m. tonight. It ends at 2 p.m. tomorrow, reflected the uncertainty with the temperatures and the ice. 

Some areas in far northern Vermont might have an icy drive to work tomorrow morning. Which would be a shock if you've been wandering around outdoors in shorts for the past couple of days. 

For now it's wait and see on the potential for ice elsewhere in the north. Stay tuned for updated forecasts later today. 

WEDNESDAY

Expected rainfall now through Thursday. Heaviest rain
is forces in New York. But in Vermont, rain combined
with snow melt will be enough to cause ice jams
and put some rivers into flood stage. 

The thinking for tomorrow is the storm will go by a little to our west, dragging that cold front back as a warm front.  If t
hat happens as forecasters think, then temperatures will rebound into the 50s for most of Vermont. 

This will keep the rain and snow melt going. So far, the flooding in Vermont has been mostly isolated near ice jams. The rain and continued snow melt would expand the flooding to rivers across the state. 

At this point, it doesn't look like a major flood. But as ice jams break up, there could be unpredictable, sudden changes in water levels.  The usual low lying roads will probably get submerged like they often do in the spring. 

Rainfall looks like it will total a half inch to an inch west of the Green Mountains, with the most north. Eastern Vermont should have about a third of an inch south to a half inch north. With the snow melt, that's more than enough to push at least some rivers over their banks.

I'll have more on how extensive the flooding might be in tomorrow morning's report. 

As you can imagine, the weird temperature forecast for the next 24 hours is tricky, so we'll probably see some forecast adjustments. For now this just gives you the best guess on how this will turn out.  Just basically be prepared for temperatures in the low 30s to mid 60s, especially north, now through tomorrow. 

Yes, I know that's not very helpful. But March is almost always a strange weather month.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

The forecast actually gets a little easier by the time we get to Thursday. The storm's final cold front will come through, dropping temperatures and ending the rain as a little snow in some areas. We won't see ,much accumulation 

Another, smaller storm looks likely later Friday and Friday night. That could drop a few inches of snow in some spots, especially the mountains. The snow might be mixed with rain for part of this storm in warmer valleys. 

Then, a larger storm is in the cards toward Sunday and Monday. This one looks like it will come with a fair amount of wind, and worse, changing precipitation types. 

Monday Evening Quick Vermont Update: Flood Watch Issued

Screen grab from a WPTZ report on the big ice
jam in Moretown, Vermont shows a vast jumble of
ice stuck in the river 

 The National Weather Service office in South Burlington decided to pull the trigger this afternoon and issue a flood watch.  

It's in effect for all but the southern two counties of Vermont, mostly because the Albany, New York National Weather Service office covers those areas. 

Northern New York is in the flood watch, too 

It's a long lasting weather alert, in effect now until during the day Thursday. 

For tonight through tomorrow, no rain is expected, but the warm weather will continue to take a toll on river ice. A cool night that got into the low 30s in a lot of places temporarily slowed the melt. Then it got into the 60s most places in Vermont this afternoon, and that's surely breaking up more ice that could lead to more jams.  

There's also plenty of snow left to melt in the mid and high elevations of Vermont 

An ice jam was still in place along the Mad River in Moretown at last report. I bet there's other trouble areas developing this evening after today's warmth. 

Tuesday's highs are tricky because it depends on when a cold front comes through in the north. Temperatures north Route 2 might end up falling through the 50s during the afternoon. Southern Vermont won't be affected by the cold front and might even be warmer than today.

So much cold air could drain into the valleys of northern Vermont, including the northern and possibly central Champlain Valley that there could be some freezing rain early Wednesday. I'll have  more details on this tomorrow, 

Enough rain might fall Wednesday to worsen the risk of flooding across Vermont. Another strong cold front should come through. That'll change the rain to snow before it ends. Also ending is our early hint of spring we're getting now.

Starting Thursday it's back to reality with temperatures staying near or below normal for quite awhile, with frequent chances of snow, maybe mixed with some rain. I'll have more in Tuesday morning's post.

 

Friday Evening Update: Volatile U.S. Weather, Quick Forecast Changes Here In Vermont, Icy Overnight?

A tornado tearing up buildings today in
southern Michigan. More volatile weather
is creating the risk of additional tornadoes
over a large area of the Midwest into 
this evening. Photo via Facebook/
Michigan Native Photography 

We're doing a quick Friday evening update today because the combination of near record warm humid air coming up from the south, lots of frigid air still lurking in Canada, and storminess in between is keeping U.S. weather volatile. 

It's also making the weather change fast here in Vermont, and meteorologists really need to stay on their toes over this. 

First, the national picture.

TORNADOES 

The storms have already turned tragic. A mother and daughter died last evening in Major County, Oklahoma, northwest of Oklahoma City, when a tornado hit their van. 

The mom was on the phone with the rest of her family at the time to warn them to take shelter from the approaching tornado

The daughter was a a seventh grader at a local school.

There were 11 reports of tornadoes in the central and southern Plains last evening. 

This evening looks even more volatile. Tornadoes are possible from southern Wisconsin to northeast Texas, with northeast Kansas, eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas the principle targets.

Also, a tornado or tornadoes unexpectedly developed in southern Michigan this afternoon. Early reports are this twisters seriously damaged some buildings, including a Menard's. 

Additionally, ssome more severe weather is possible from western New York to central Texas tomorrow.  

Hopefully we do not see any more deaths from this robust early season severe weather outbreak

VERMONT

Ice accumulation map for early tomorrow. Areas of the
Northeast Kingdom and southeast Adirondacks can
expect areas of icy roads. The freezing rain looks
like it will be a little more extensive 
over in New Hampshire

We've got no severe thunderstorms or tornados in our forecast. However, yet another round of light freezing rain is in the cards for the Northeast Kingdom late tonight. 

 Forecasters have increased the amount of rain that will be coming through, so a winter weather advisory is in effect for most places east of the Green Mountains and north of White River Junction. 

Most of the freezing rain would come through between midnight and dawn. 

Those of you who end up with icy weather will only have to deal with slick roads. There won't be any issues with trees or power lines getting too weighed down.

Northwest Vermont will get a little more rain than expected too, but it won't freeze there. Southern Vermont will only get some light rain, 

The rain will tend to taper off during the middle of the day. Strong south winds are still in the cards for the Champlain Valley. 

High temperatures in the 40s to low 50s should hit by later in the afternoon, especially if we see some breaks in the clouds. Another round of showers should come through in the evening.

I'll have much more in tomorrow morning's post. 

Follow The Bouncing Temperatures As Vermont Freezing Rain Tonight Yields To Eventual New False Spring

Yesterday I began my March ritual in which I spread parts
of the deep snowbanks covering the gardens next
to my driveway back onto the pavement to melt faster in
the sun.  It's better than waiting until well into April to
see those snowbanks disappear. I'll have to stop this
work today and tomorrow, but will probably 
resume flinging the snow back onto the pavement
to melt in the sun come Sunday. 

March weather is usually confusing, surprising and all over the place in Vermont. That's definitely true this week!   

We started with subzero cold on Monday morning, followed by a shot of snow and icy roads Tuesday night, followed by a Wednesday that really felt like spring is coming. 

So much for that idea. It has turned colder, and will stay that way today especially in the Champlain Valley. More freezing rain is coming to parts of the state, followed by a huge thaw. We think.  

As usual, let's take it step by step.  

TODAY:  

Increasing clouds as that next wave of precipitation approaches. Highs will top out only near 30 in the central and northern Champlain Valley,  as that big, bloated Arctic high pressure in northern Quebec drains some of its chilly air down the Richelieu River valley and on into the Champlain Valley. 

 Highs elsewhere in Vermont will reach the 30s in the north and maybe near 40 south. 

TONIGHT

That big bloated, Arctic high in Quebec keeps trending a bit closer to New England for tonight, which means we have some more forecast adjustments. You might remember yesterday I said there was an unlikely scenario in which far northern Vermont would get either no ice or snow? Well, that's become much more likely.

So places like St. Albans and Newport seem pretty much off the hook for icy roads and such tonight and tomorrow morning.  

The further south you go the worse things will get overnight and Friday morning. North central Vermont, places like Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, should be OK. They'll get a little snow, likely less than an inch. There might be a few ice pellets or freezing rain drops near the onset of precipitation tonight, but nothing really to panic over.

The problems really start to show up from central Vermont south. A winter weather advisory is up from the southern Champlain Valley south to Bennington and beyond in western Vermont, an Windham County over in the southeastern parts of the state for freezing rain, sleet and eventually snow. 

If you have road trip plans in those areas, you're going to encounter a rough time tonight and tomorrow morning. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

Friday will just be cloudy and raw and VERY March like. You know, grey skies above, miserable dampness, highs only in the 30s to near 40.  Overnight Friday and early Saturday, there might be a little more freezing drizzle east of the Greens,.

On Saturday, the winds will really pick up, especially in the Champlain Valley where gusts could reach 40 mph. Those will be south winds, so highs should get into to the low 50s, which would be the warmest it's been all year. 

Saturday's weather will end the Lake Champlain ice party. Many of us have had the rare treat this winter of walking on water - specifically the frozen surface of Lake Champlain. The warmth and the wind will make the lake too dangerous to be on, except maybe the most thickly frozen bays. But otherwise, the wind and the warmth will start breaking up the ice. Get you ice shanties off the lake while you can. 

Eastern Vermont might stay a little cooler, but will still get well above freezing. Some patchy rain will come through, mostly in the late afternoon and evening. The thaw and rain might be enough to break up some river ice, so we'll have to start thinking about ice jams.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

If you liked yesterday's weather, you'll love Sunday and Monday. Under mainly sunny skies, temperatures should hit the mid and upper 40s Sunday and get into the 50s in most low elevations Monday. 

Tuesday looks warm, too, but another Arctic high way up in  Canada might diminish the party in northern areas a bit by briefly dropping temperatures slightly. I'm not sure on that but we'll see. 

Early guesses are that a cold front will arrive Wednesday to end false spring. We might get one more warm day Wednesday as showers move in.

Although we're won't see much rain during this big thaw, the snow will melt so fast we will have to worry about ice jams and just general spots of lowland flooding along some rivers. We'll have more details as we get closer to those dates.

 

Another Below Zero Morning In Vermont. This Weeks Climb Toward Spring Features......Complications

The nice thing about March is the sun is stronger than it was
earlier in the winter so it makes a difference. The sun 
started melting a dusting of snow off my driveway
quickly yesterday, despite temperatures in the teens.
Today will be cold, too, but the sun will make it feel better

Vermont's journey this week out of midwinter bitter cold to what I would call "false spring" is going to be an uneven one. 

On that journey, expect some decidedly not-so-springlike weather including snow, freezing rain, and the possibility that the promised eventual warm air will be taken away from us. 

BELOW ZERO AGAIN

We start today bitter cold, as expected. It was below zero everywhere. It was generally a bit colder in northern New York State than in Vermont.

The center of the Arctic high pressure was a little to Vermont's west most of the night. The air remained calm longer closer to the high pressure's center in New York, so it was colder there.

I don't have the final word on low temperatures as of this writing, but perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York got down to 24 below. It was in the mid and upper teens below zero in the St. Lawrence Valley. 

 Light north winds lasted longer in Vermont, so temperatures didn't fall as fast earlier last night, but started to crash faster toward dawn as winds went calm here, too. 

So far, Lake Eden, Vermont is winning the cold sweepstakes, as they got to any least 18 below this morning. Morrisville wasn't far behind at 14 below.

Burlington was down to 2 below, This isn't record cold, of course. Burlington missed the record low (set in 1980) by a full 16 degrees. The coldest it's ever been in Vermont is 37 below, here in St. Albans on March 4, 1938.  Not happening this year, thank gawd!

This morning was the 16th time this winter it was at or below zero in Burlington. That's more than in many recent years, but it's not that out of whack, even compared to the past couple of climate-changed "warmer " winters.

Seven of the past 20 years have had as many or more days that were zero or colder. With any luck, this will be the last subzero morning in Burlington until next winter. 

So, moving on from the cold......

TODAY, TOMORROW

Expected accumulation of snow from a quick, small storm
later Tuesday and Tuesday night. It's a small one, with
only one to three inches south, less in the north. 

The good news is it's going to warm up a lot by this afternoon. The bad news is "a lot" is still pretty damn cold for this time of year. 

But highs within a few degrees either side of 20 degrees with light winds and a stronger March sun won't feel too bad.

The temperature will again begin to crash this evening, but high clouds, a bit of a southwesterly breeze and just the general air mass warming up will prevent many of us going below zero. 

It will warm up further tomorrow as temperatures rise into the 30s. But it will come at a cost. A small storm will spread another burst of snow across much of Vermont later Tuesday and Tuesday night. Luckily, it will be a light, wet snow that may not even arrive at all north of Route 2. 

In any event, southern Vermont should just receive one to three inches of snow, with anywhere between nothing and an inch north. 

SPRINGLIKE, THEN ICE?

At this point, Wednesday looks like the pick of the week. We should see a fair amount of sunshine with temperatures popping up to the low 40s for most of us. That'll at least melt the little bit of snow we would have gotten the night before. 

At first glance, it seems like the next mid-sized storm Thursday night into Friday would be rain. But there's a problem. Very strong, very cold high pressure will set up in northern Quebec. It will feed low level cold air down into northern New England, setting us up for freezing rain. 

It's too soon to say who will get the freezing rain, how much will accumulate and weather and snow or sleet will be involved as well. But beware, Thursday night and Friday might be problematic. Stay tuned on that. 

NEXT WEEKEND HINTS

It should finally warm up to springlike levels next weekend. It could even get into the 50s.  We'll have to start watching the rivers for ice breakups and ice jams. Luckily, it looks like any rain we might get will be light, so that won't add much to our worries. We'll have more details when we get closer to the event. 

March weather can be pretty psychotic. Things change at the drop of a hat. We'll witness some of that this week. 

Two Memphis City Councilors, And A Scary Number Of Other People Say Storm Dropped "Man-Made" Snow

The black stuff left on snow then
trying to melt it with a lighter is
just partly combusted material from the
lighter, not some nefarious plot
in the snow. Despite this fact, 
conspiracy theorists falsely
insist there is something "wrong"
with innocent snow and sleet. 

We've just gotten two big snow and ice storms in the southern United States in a little over a week. 

Which you'd think is bad enough. 

Now we have a bunch of people coming out of the woodwork, including two Memphis City Councilors, telling us all that snow and sleet and ice was fake. Man made for some damn reason none of these nutcases are clear about. 

Our city councilors from Memphis are Pearl Walker and Yolanda Cooper Sutton who took to social media to explain to us the storms weren't meteorology. They were apparently.... oh, who knows what.  

 As memphisflyer.com tells us :

"Cooper Sutton posted a video showing who she says is her husband attempting to melt a chunk of ice with a light. 'It's not melting  (it stinks) the you set fire to it OMG, Jesus Christ what is happening!!!"

The video is a slo-mo showing flame licking snow blue no water drips. Cooper Sutton says "This is not melting" she said. "What is falling from the sky hitting the ground?"

Her colleague on the City Council, Walker, responded to Cooper Sutton's post with the words "Man Made"

OK, I'll take off their tin hats and put on my Captain Obvious hat and explain it.. 

I wasn't there for their little science experiment, but I imagine the smell came from the butane lighter they were using.   There's not much water in a handful of snow, so not much water would drip from it. What little was there probably soaked into the tiny air spaces within the piece of snow. There's a lot of air in there, even if it's hard packed snow.  

Anyway, our friendly Memphis councilors got blow back immediately. 

A local activist named Hunter Demster decided to wade into the social media thread with this reasonable comment: "(Disheartening) to see several sitting Memphis City Council members literally pushing conspiracy theories about 'man made' sow," Demster wrote on Facebook. "Sigh......We are screwed as a species."

That just encouraged more people to double down on the conspiracy, and other to deride it. 

Cooper-Sutton later told WREG she meant her social media statements as light-hearted posts shared with family and friends. She went on to say how much she's done for the community and that she was getting death threats for questioning whether the snow was fake.

I'm sure Cooper-Sutton does a lot for Memphis, and anyone who sends out death threats to someone just because they have a very odd false, unscientific is way over the top. Don't do that! Death threats over this are much dumber than thinking the snow was manmade. 

Still, I have a lot of questions for our esteemed city council members.

If that was a manufactured material that resembles snow, who made it? And how did they make so much? Why? If somebody is sending a message by making that stuff, what is the message? Are there any whistleblowers who could help? Documents? Any other kind of proof? If this stuff didn't melt when you brought it in, why is it slowly melting outdoors when the temperature rises above freezing?  

Many people around Memphis said the stuff that fell on the city in late January  felt different to the touch than in most past winter storms. These many people are right. When Memphis does get winter storms, more often than not it's either the powdery snow that blows around, or wet, heavy cement. 

This stuff felt like small, heavy granules. Because they were. Almost everything that came out of the sky during that storm over Memphis was sleet. 

It wasn't just our city councilors. A now-apparently deleted post on the social media site Threads asked "So what chemicals are in that white stuff on the ground that's called SNOW? I have never seen ice or snow that doesn't break or melt in my life. Now if I'm asking a crazy question just let me know."

Well, I wouldn't call the question crazy, but again, it's not chemicals, either. Where this person was probably got a little snow a lot of sleet and a little freezing rain to turn the mess into something I'd call snowcrete.  

Concrete consists of gravel aggregate and a cement-like water slurry that binds it all together. In the case f that big storm, a bunch of sleet became the aggregate and the freezing rain the cement slurry to form the "snowcrete," 

In other words, millions of people experienced was just a big, strange, oddly widespread mixed precipitation storm 

There's also a TON of videos on line of people, like the Memphis City Councilors, putting the flame of a lighter to the snow. It leaves a black mark every time. That wasn't caused by a weird plastic substance in the snow, which the tin hat crowd would have you believe.   It was soot from incomplete combustion of the butane in the lighter. 

This is just little ole me telling the world to relax, there's no conspiracy to create storms of plastic pellets or chemicals to terrorize the public. The only terror was the amount of sleet and freezing rain, composed purely of frozen or freezing water that came out of the sky. Like it does in every winter storm. 

There are so many conspiracy nuts out there, that my little voice won't make a dent in all this. But I have to try anyway.  

Saturday Evening Update: Damage In South Ramping Up In Big Winter Storm. Little Change In Vermont Snow Dump Outlook

Tree damage from freezing rain already starting to show
up in Rolling Fork, Mississippi in this video screen
grab from Meteorologist Jock Williams, via Facebook

Our big winter storm continues to plow on, with varying forms of precipitation falling as of late this afternoon from New Mexico to North Carolina. 

At least 22 states are now under states of emergency due to the storm. About 55 percent of the nation's population, or 190 million people are under weather alerts related to this mess. These warnings and advisories cover 37 states, including here in Vermont. 

Power outages continued to increase through the day, and it will get a lot worse tonight and tomorrow. As of 5 p.m. eastern time, more than 56,000 homes and businesses were without power in Texas. The outages in Louisiana were nearing 48,000

Flight Aware was showing almost 4,300 flights canceled today, and at least 9,200 canceled tomorrow. for a total of about 15,000.

 The previous worst day in the past year for canceled flights was on November 9, when 1,900 flights were scrubbed due to the U.S. government shutdown, CNN reported.

Across the winter storm area, where snow, sleet and freezing rain was falling, cities looked like ghost towns.

For instance, video from Live Storms Media showed snow and ice-covered highways aroundMemphis almost free of traffic. Most of the few vehicles on Memphis area highways were tractor trailers hauling goods to, gawd knows where.

This storm will no doubt disrupt shipping. At the very least, don't be surprised if your Amazon package is late. 

Freezing rain continues to be the biggest danger with this storm, though the heavy snow is no slouch in this either. Parts of the storm are turning out to be pretty electric, so some places in the South are dealing with thunder and lightning combined with the freezing rain and sleet. 

That state of affairs should continue into the night at least. 

An ice storm is really bad news wherever it might hit. The fact that the South is getting the bulk of the freezing rain is even worse. I've mentioned before the region is heavily forested. Because the South has infrequent winter storms, they don't cut tree limbs away from power lines as utilities in the northern United States do.  

Which means it's more likely that falling trees or branches would hit power lines in the South instead of falling harmlessly away from the wires. 

In many areas in the ice zone, the freezing rain is falling lightly. Or at least tapers off to a lighter rain at times. That's actually bad news. As Matthew Cappucci explains in the Washington Post, when a raindrop freezes, it released a teeny amount of latent heat. If it's really pouring that latent heat can add up, and could bring temperatures above freezing. Or at least bring nearby raindrops above freezing. 

A freezing sprinkle doesn't release much heat. So it adds up on trees and power lines, causing chaos. 

A new storm hazard has appeared. It looks like the systems warm front will get into the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and extreme southwest Georgia. These areas will turn briefly warm and humid overnight and part of tomorrow. That is until the storm's cold front approaches. 

These areas could see severe thunderstorms and maybe even a few tornadoes before temperatures fall sharply later tomorrow. Interestingly, the area under the tornado threat is the same are that had some very rare for them snow last Sunday

The snow and some sleet will send up slowing  travel from New Mexico to New Brunswick and beyond. In the United States, everybody in a wide band between about Roswell, New Mexico to Eastport, Maine will end up with at least six inches of snow. Many spots in this vast zone of snow will end up shoveling more than a foot of snow. In some places, sleet mixed in will make the chore especially onerous. 

As the storm closed in, panic buying continued, as people stripped grocery shelves of water, milk, bread, eggs and whatever else  people thought they needed.

"I know people want to be ready, but calm down, you don't need to buy all the toilet paper in Virginia," Kim Lee told WWBT "Some of the things I wanted to make sure I have, I do not have." 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Well, I guess we can say today was sunny for a change. It's been such a gloomy winter that any sunshine is a blessing. 

No panic buying in Vermont, apparently. The bread aisle
in a Colchester supermarket looks well stocked today. 

Even if it's near or below zero. You know it's cold when most of the cars on the highways have little piggy tails of steam coming out of their tail pipes. 

Not many people were out today, at least as far as I saw when I was out doing errands. The only knots of activity were at grocery stores. But unlike the panic buying elsewhere, the store shelves I saw seemed well stocked.  

It did manage to get above zero in Burlington this afternoon, keeping a usually long streak going. The last time Burlington had a high temperature of just 0 degrees was on January 15, 2022. The last time we had a subzero high temperature was January 6, 2018. 

Subzero high temperatures used to be quite a bit more frequent than they are now. 

As late afternoon arrived, I could see high, thin clouds on the southern horizon. That's the first sign of our storm. 

The temperature will drop like a rock for the first half of tonight as skies remain mostly clear for awhile.  It'll actually be a bit colder than earlier forecasts hinted at. The "warmer" valleys will probably make its the upper single numbers below zero. Most of Vermont will be in the teens below zero, and the Northeast Kingdom could get as low as 25 below. 

The increasing clouds late tonight will keep temperatures from really bottoming out. Readings should level off after midnight, and maybe even rise a bit toward morning. 

THE STORM

The forecast really hasn't changed much since this morning. Within 24 hours or so before a storm, the computer models can start looking at picky details.

It's looking like the initial thump of snow tomorrow evening will come down quite hard, especially in southern Vermont.  Late at night, the snow could lighten up somewhat. 

Then, during the day Monday, the storm might form a little trough or extension northwestward into Vermont. I say 'might" because meteorologists aren't entirely sure yet. But it's likely, and that would make snowfall heavier for a few to several hours near wherever it might set up.  Preliminary guesses have it setting up somewhere in central Vermont. 

This evening's updated snowfall prediction map for
Vermont and surround areas is little changed from this
morning. Source: NWS/South Burlington

Not sure, so we'll keep an eye on that. 

The forecast for total snowfall hasn't changed much. The National Weather Service is still going with 8 to 16 inches by Monday night, with locally higher amounts maybe in the southern Green Mountains. Or where and if that trough sets up for several hours somewhere in Vermont. 

The snow will still probably start tomorrow afternoon. So if you have some supplies to nab, do it in the morning. The roads will be bad from Sunday afternoon on through Monday.

 Sure, it's going to be a fluffy snow, but visibility will be poor, and some of that snow will compact into ice on the roads. 

A saving grace is it won't be all that windy during the storm, so blowing snow won't make the visibility even worse. The snow should finally peter out Monday evening. 

The upcoming week also continues to look quite chilly, but not nearly as bad as today. Still, every night in the coming week starting Monday night around the Northeast Kingdom will probably go below zero.

After this storm blows through, it still looks like very little if any snow will fall Tuesday through at least next Saturday. Or even later than that. 

 

Extreme Cold, Winter Storm Gathering Force In U.S.; Vermont Involved Too

The National Weather Service web site home page
has most of the eastern United States in blue,
indicating extreme cold alerts or winter storm
watches. That patch of pink in Oklahoma is
an upgrade to a winter storm warning. Much
of this map will turn that pink or purple
in the coming days. That will indicate winter storm
or ice storm warnings  

 If you looked at the map on the home page of the National Weather Service website this morning, you would have noticed almost everything east of the Rockies is colored blue. 

All that blue indicates the dangerous weather much of the nation is facing starting today and going through the weekend. 

Extreme cold watches and warnings, and winter storm watches are all depicted in varying shades of blue. 

This will be a deadly, very expensive winter storm. 

Note: For my Vermont readers, I have what's in store further down in this post. But first, the national situation

INTENSE COLD, SNOW, ICE

Texas, North Carolina and South Carolina have declared states of emergency already because of the storm. I'm betting other states will follow suit. 

Arguably the scariest part of this batch of winter weather is the huge area that are at risk for destructive freezing rain. The band of ice would extend from central and northern Texas, through the northern Gulf States, the mid-Misssissipi Valley, the southern Appalachians and on into the Carolinas and Virginia.

At least some of these areas will have enough ice to cave in countless trees and power lines. Electricity might be out for days. Roads might also be blocked for days, too. It won't warm up immediately after the storm, so the ice will continue to wreak havoc even after skies clear. 

In some areas that see freezing rain, temperatures could be as low as the upper teens, meaning a much greater share of the rain would freeze than you would  normally see in an ice storm. 

North of all that ice, a broad band of heavy snow is expected from the southern and central Plains through a large are of the Midwest and into the Northeast.  

Exactly where the worst of the snow and ice is still TBA, but we do know that at least tens of millions of people will have one of the worst, if not the worst winter storm they experienced in years.

I'm seeing news footage this morning of people clearing supermarket shelves of food and other supplies ahead of the storm. If you have travel plans this weekend, good luck! I'm sure flights throughout most of the eastern two thirds of the U.S. will be a mess. Major airlines are already waiving rebooking fees. 

I would also suggest picking another time for a road trip across, for instance, Arkansas. Or dozens of other states for that matter. 

Places like Home Depot and Lowes are reporting runs on portable generators. Electric utilities have told customers to prepare for multi-day power outages. 

In much the winter storm zone and north of it, extreme cold warnings, watches and advisories extend from the Plains to northern New England. 

The most intense cold will be up in North Dakota and northern Minnesota, where wind chills will be near 50 below. A lot of those places will have three consecutive nights in the 20s and 30s below. 

You probably noticed that those affected by the Arctic blast are under extreme cold warnings and watches. That might seem odd to people who are more familiar with wind chill warnings and watches.

The National Weather Service abandoned wind chill alerts in 2024 to streamline warnings and make them more clear. After all, it can be dangerously cold outside with or without wind. There had been a misconception among the public that extreme cold is dangerous only if there's wind. 

Extreme cold watches and warnings make it clear that it's the temperature that makes it dangerous. Extreme cold warnings mention wind chills if the gusts make the "real feel" of the air outside feel horrible. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

The forecasts have been trending north with the snow with t

A brief burst of snow dusted the evergreens around
my house in St. Albans, Vermont this morning. 
Expects more snow showers today and tomorrow
before the Arctic blast arrives later tomorrow,
We might get part of that big winter
storm later Sunday and Monday, too.

his vast winter storm, so expect at least a few inches of snow later Sunday and Monday in parts of, or maybe all of Vermont.  More on that in a bit, but we've got other interesting weather to get to first. 

There's a LOT to talk about, so let's dive in! 

We've still got a couple cold fronts to get through today and tomorrow, which means snow showers. We still think we'll see some snow squalls in the mix here and there, so be ready for some changeable road conditions and sudden shifts in visibility. 

The snow showers have already started this morning. A pretty heavy but brief burst of snow came through my perch in St. Albans a little before 8:30 a.m. 

I'll be hard to tell in advance when and where these snow bursts show up, so stay on your toes! Total accumulation through all this will be mostly an inch or less, with locally slightly higher amounts. 

Today will be the last mild day we see for awhile, ,as temperatures head into the 30s. The colder air behind this first front isn't all that cold. It'll get into the teens tonight and up to near 20 or so tomorrow morning or early afternoon. 

But then the second front with its snow showers and squalls introduce us into the Arctic hell. The extreme cold watch for all but a sliver of southeastern Vermont will probably turn into a warning later today. 

Friday night will be brutal as temperatures fall through the single numbers and then below zero. Winds will be gusty fro the northwest.  Temperatures still look like they'll bottom out in the upper single numbers to teens below zero by Saturday morning. Highs will be within a few degrees either side of zero. Yuck!

That big winter storm might prevent temperatures from dropping as low as they otherwise could Saturday night. The coldest temperatures hit on calm, clear nights. High clouds billowing far north and east of the storm could come in overnight, halting the temperature plunge.

The clouds are literally cold comfort though. Temperatures overnight and into Sunday morning will drop into the teens below zero, with a few spots in the 20s below. It'll be the coldest night at least since February, 2023 or perhaps before then.

Those high clouds are a harbinger of what to me is a bit of a surprise. It now looks like we could get some snow out of that immense winter storm. 

Once the storm is near the East Coast, it's expected to strengthen more than earlier forecasts indicated It's also now projected to head a little further north than earlier guesses.

At this point, the storm is still wanting to go south of New England. That would normally mean we'd get little if any snow.  But the area of snow north of this thing is going to be much wider than a normal storm. 

It now looks like everyone in Vermont will get some snow out of this Sunday night and Monday. But for now, anyway, the heaviest snow looks like it would stay to our south. 

In southern Vermont, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington gives about an  80 percent chance of at least two inches of snow, a roughly 60 percent chance of six inches and perhaps just a 20 or 30 percent chance of a foot of snow.

In northern Vermont, the odds are for about a 65 chance of two inches and a 40 percent of six inches of snow. There's just a 10 to 20 percent chance of a foot up north.

The storm is still far away from New England, so projections could easily change one way or another. 

Most of the time, when it snows around here, temperatures are somewhere in the 20s to around 30. This go around, temperatures will be in the single numbers to low teens while it's snowing. So early guesses are this will be a very powdery feathery snow. 

Although it won't be brutally cold after the storm goes by, it will still be much colder than normal. Early guesses have daily high temperatures for all of next week in the teens, with lows within a few degrees either side of zero. All that is a good 10 degrees colder than normal for this time of year.  

Nation Faces Days Of Extreme Cold, And Huge Winter Storm Of Ice And Snow (Vermont Forecast Included)

Huge area in red on this map is expected to be affected
by a massive winter storm this weekend. 

The next several days will be peak winter across most of the United States.

And downright dangerous. 

Most of the northern tier of the United States from North Dakota to New England is in for intense cold. In northern Minnesota, wind chills could drop into the mid 50s below zero.  

Even worse, a massive winter storm is taking shape. It'll extend from eastern New Mexico, , through the southern and central Great Plains, then across  much of the South and the eastern United States.

The placement of who gets the worst of it is still a little in question, but the area affected will be massive. 

A large area across the South is expecting a crippling ice storm. Those most affected will endure possibly days-long power outages and severe tree damage. To the north of the ice, snow accumulation in some areas might be measured in feet, not inches. 

People across the South away from the immediate Gulf Coast are being told to stock up on food and supplies, just in case. 

The storm won't really start until Friday, but the warnings are already sounding pretty dire. Ryan Maue, a former chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told the Associated Press that the storm could be a "widespread potentially catastrophic event from Texas to the Carolinas....I don't know how people are going to deal with it."

The odd thing is this won't be a huge, strong low pressure system causing the problem. Instead, a massive blob of heavy, frigid Arctic air will press down into the southern United States. Then, a wet flow of warm, lighter, humid air will glide over this bitter cold air. The rising air will unleash a barrage of snow and freezing rain onto the millions of southerners shivering on the ground below. 

The storm will likely consolidate and finally grow stronger near the East Coast toward Sunday night. 

New Mexico and Texas will be hit first on Friday, then everything will spread eastward and eventually somewhat northward through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. 

This could easily become the first weather disaster of the year costing $1 billion or more. We'll have much more on this over the next several days as the storm develops.  

VERMONT IMPACTS

A classic cold winter afternoon sky yesterday over
St. Albans, Vermont. By this weekend, we'll
REALLY be shivering in subzero cold. 

Frankly, we're in for some miserable midwinter weather in Vermont, but overall, we're lucky.

We won't be nearly as cold as places like Minnesota. That massive storm should either give us a slight glancing blow, or not affect us at all.  

But we have a bit of snow in the forecast, some wind, and eventually that bitter cold air. Even when the chill eases off a bit toward the beginning of next week, we'll be mostly on the colder than normal side  right into February. Possibly through most of February. 

A series of weak weather fronts will harass us today through Friday. A lame warm front today will spread light snow through most of Vermont this afternoon and evening. Almost everyone will see an inch or less of accumulation. The mountains, as always, could pick up a bit more than that.

But even that little bit will probably make the roads a little iffy for the drive home from work this evening. 

The warm front will bring temperatures to the low 20s this afternoon, then those readings will hold steady tonight. In the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will actually slowly warm up overnight as south winds gust to 40 mph or even a bit more. 

Enjoy tomorrow, as it will be the last warm-ish day for quite awhile. Highs should briefly reach the low or even mid 30s in a few spots. A cold front coming at us will probably set off more afternoon and evening snow showers. A few spots away from the Champlain Valley might even see a brief snow squall. 

Once again, though, most places will see an inch or less, with - as always - a little more in the mountains. Like today, tomorrow's snow showers could once again make your drive home from work or school tomorrow afternoon a little annoying.

Thursday's cold front won't introduce us to the super cold air. It'll only get a little chillier. Another cold front on Friday will be the one to make us absolutely miserable. 

The first half of Friday should be OK, with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 20. But the wind will pick up and the temperature will fall all afternoon. Wind chill alerts will probably be issued starting later Friday and going through much of the weekend. 

We'll start the day with subzero temperatures Saturday morning, and those of us who get above zero Saturday afternoon will be the lucky ones.

Saturday night will be super cold. Early guesses are teens below zero. That's not even close to record cold territory, but it's much worse than what we've gotten used to. Clouds from that massive storm in the south might - again if we're lucky - keep us from getting even colder.

That huge storm is forecast to pass far to our south Sunday night. An early guess has it heading off the coast around Delaware.  Some of the forecast models are suggesting a little snow could make it all the way north into Vermont Sunday night despite our great distance from the storm. 

That moisture will be battling the very dry, cold air over us, so I'm still dubious as to whether we'll get any snow. I'll keep an open mind, though. 

It'll probably stay cold through next week and probably beyond, but it won't be quite as bad as what we'll deal with this coming weekend. 

Saturday Morning Vermont Update: Pretty Much Anything Might Fall From The Sky Tonight

National Weather Service map of expected snow totals.
This includes tonight snow, and lingering snow
Sunday through Monday. Click on the map to
make it bigger and easier to see. Also, 
it's a difficult forecast so don't be 
surprised if it turns out to be a little off. 

Our messy storm is on our doorstep, due tonight in Vermont and surrounding areas. 

And we still don't have a great idea of what will fall from the sky and any particular time during the storm. . But the experts are trying their best to tell you who gets snow, who gets ice, who gets rain.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter. 

Pretty much the entire state of Vermont, and surrounding states, and southern Quebec will get a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain.  The question who gets the most snow, the most ice, the most rain? 

I'll have some sadly vague answers in a bit.

First of all, how about that wind yesterday? The Champlain Valley and northern New York really got blasted, especially in the afternoon and evening. Power outages in Vermont peaked at around 2,800 homes and businesses last night. 

In northwestern New York, winds gusted to as high as 65 mph in Malone. Here in Vermont, peak gusts included  60 mph in Jay. 57 mph in Alburgh, 53 mph on Route 2 at the Sandbar in Milton and 51 mph in Burlington. 

In contrast, it's almost a dead calm out there this morning in anticipation of our storm.

THE STORM.

Meteorologists like to look at the thermal profile of the atmosphere in this type of weather situation. That means they look at what they think the temperature will be in every layer of the atmosphere. 

In this case, I would understand if those meteorologists just threw up their hands and said, "I dunno!"

But they're professionals, so they're giving it a shot. 

National Weather Service forecast of expected ice
accumulation from tonight's storm. Most of the freezing
rain will be in the mountains central and south.

A high pressure system that will be off to our north and east will try to feed cold air into northern New England as the double-barreled storm comes at us from the southwest.  We're also looking at that new storm developing along the New England coast. How fast and strongly develops will also help determine whether the cold air wins out, or the warm air takes over. 

The dense, cooler air trying to come in from the northeast will tend to hug the ground. Warm air will glide up over that chilly air.  

Where the cold air is the atmosphere and how thick layers of warm air will be overhead will determine which kind of stuff falls from the sky. That's our thermal profile. 

The bottom line is different types of schmutz will fall from the sky at different times. All we can do is try to predict what the predominate precipitation type will be.

Early guesses are this will be mostly snow toward northeastern Vermont. You'll see more sleet as you head south and east across the state. 

Here's another complication. As falling snow enters the warm layer in the atmosphere, it melts into raindrops. If the cold layer is thin, that rain stays unfrozen until it hits the ground, and turns to ice. That's freezing rain. 

If the cold layer near the ground is thicker, the raindrops freeze on the way down. They become little ice balls - sleet. 

As the National Weather Service describes it, some higher elevations might see some freezing rain, as the rain won't have time to turn to ice on the way down. The best chance of freezing rain with this storm looks like it'll be in the southern Green Mountains of Vermont and southern Adirondacks of New York. 

A winter weather advisory is in effect in those two areas because of that freeing rain risk.  I don't think the freezing rain will be enough to bring down much in the way of trees and power lines. It will be mostly a dangerous road type of situation. 

This mess should start around 6 to 8 p.m. this evening in southern Vermont and 8 to 10 p.m. central and north.  At least it's hitting at night on a weekend, so the effects on travel aren't so bad. 

The best guess on snow amounts by tomorrow are two to five inches of snow in the Northeast Kingdom, one to three inches central Vermont and the Champlain Valley and less than an inch south. This will be a heavy, wet snow, especially since many areas will have some sleet, freezing rain and rain mixed in with it. 

Expect surprises, with some areas getting more or less snow or ice than predicted. This is an easy forecast to screw up.

During the day on Sunday, more snow showers will continue, mostly north and northeast. For awhile Sunday, some of the valleys could see raindrops mixed in as cooler air will take its time coming in. 

Another one to four inches of snow looks like it fall Sunday and Sunday night in most of the north. They would be somewhat more than that in the northern Green Mountains. And there would probably be a little less than that in southern Vermont and in the central and southern Champlain Valley. 

The Adirondacks in New York and the White Mountains in New Hampshire looks like they will get some additional snow Sunday night as well. 

The forecast for the upcoming week is starting to look more complicated than earlier thought, too. But I'll get into that in a later post.   

Tuesday Vermont Evening Update: 1-4 Inches New Snow Due, Ice In Far South

A short period of sunny weather today got me outside
to clean the two inches of snow we got yesterday from
my St. Albans, Vermont driveway. Looks like I'll
have another two or three inches to clear tomorrow. 

I figure we can use a Tuesday evening update on our little storm coming through overnight, since it is year another bout with winter weather. 

We're still on tonight for another burst of snow in northern and central Vermont tonight, with a messy mix in the far south overnight.    

The forecasts haven't changed much since this morning, so here's an overview 

The initial storm is coming at us from the southern Great Lakes, and is bringing a batch of warm air with it, mostly high up in the atmosphere, but not so much down where we live.   

The warm air aloft is coming at us from the south and west. So the Adirondacks and southern Vermont will see the most schmutz tonight. 

The balmy air up high still looks like it will get cut off at the pass as another storm forms off the coast of Maine. The original storm will fade away. 

Since the original storm from the Great Lakes will be fading, it'll lose its ability to transport that warm air deeper into Vermont.  The new storm will try to shove a little cold air at all levels of the atmosphere into North Country later tonight.   

The wind won't be that strong, so it'll be a slow process. But eventually, even far southern Vermont will turn to snow late tonight, at least as it looks now. 

We could see a little mix as far north as the zone between Route 4 and Route 2. But the further north you go, the lower the chance of ice and the greater the chance this will be all snow. 

Accumulations will run from 1 to 4 inches. Definitely not storm of the century. The lower amounts will be in the far south, where they'll have all that ice and sleet. Northern mountains could get the four inches. Most of us are in for two or three inches of new snow.

This won't be as light and fluffy as the stuff we got yesterday and last night. You'll need a little more muscle to clean it up than you did this morning. The good news is it won't be wet cement, either. 

Snow or a mix should start between 8 and 10 p.m. this evening. Maybe a bit earlier than that in far southwest Vermont, and a little later up in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Although the snow will be tapering off by the time tomorrow morning's commute comes around, the roads might still be kind of annoying. I noticed that people slid off Interstate 89 coming into Burlington this morning, despite the light amounts of snow we got, and the fact the road surface wasn't that bad.

So prepare for more of the same tomorrow. 

The light snow will keep dwindling during Wednesday morning, maybe mixing with a little drizzle or freezing drizzle.

I won't really get really far into what's coming this weekend in this evening's post. But the first round of precipitation looks to be rain on Friday. I still  have a lot of questions as to what will happen with a second storm Saturday and Sunday, so stay tuned for updates 

Vermont Monday Morning Storm Update: Could Have Been Worse, But Still Icy/Messy. More Drama Ahead

An example of the challenge the freezing rain brought
this morning This traffic cam grab shows the pavement
on Route 125 in Ripton looking absolutely scary icy,
with trees weighed down by the ice, too. 

By 7:30 this morning, I heard the welcome thump of snow sliding off my roof here in St. Albans, Vermont. 

The told me the temperature was above freezing here, and the threat of more icing had passed. 

We're lucky the worst of this hit overnight. All roads were virtually impassable across the state at the peak of the icing late last night and in the predawn hours. 

Because the roads were so bad, all state offices were closed today. People who could work remotely were still on the job, but state officials warned that electricity and internet connectivity might be iffy. 

Overall, temperatures around dawn today were a little warmer than forecast, which is great news. Freezing rain overnight and this morning is still extensive, but not as disastrous as some forecasts last evening indicated. 

It turns out not many of us will have an half inch of ice or more breaking trees and power lines. A few places will have that, but not many. And there's plenty of trouble spots this morning. 

Let's got west to east across Vermont for a morning assessment:

Champlain Valley/Souithwest Vermont

As of 7:30 p.m. temperatures in the far southwest near Bennington were in the upper 30s, with mid 30s in the Champlain Valley. Main roads in those spots were just wet for your morning commute. But untreated surfaces like dirt roads, driveways and sidewalks were still awful. 

Try to avoid those dirt roads for awhile yet. And for gawd's sake watch your step. Here at my place in St Albans, the tree have no ice on them, but my driveway is scary as hell. 

Some places in western Vermont that are protected from the winds were still seeing freezing rain. Rutland and Middlebury were still at 32 degrees as of 7 a.m. 

Traffic cameras along Route 4 in West Rutland and Fair Haven still showed slick pavement and iced up trees as of a little bit before 8 a.m. I notice a smattering of power outages in central Rutland County. 

Central/Eastern Vermont

Traffic cam grab on Route 4 in Quechee a little
before 8 a.m. this morning looked pretty slick
Note that pine tree in the background was
sagging under the ice pretty badly. 

As expected, it's worse out there once you get to the Green Mountains and points east. A few places, like Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, were a bit above freezing before 8 a.m., many other places in this one were still at or a little below 32 degrees. 

Roads conditions on traffic cameras in these areas looked varied. Most of Interstate 91 seemed wet, with some icy areas. Some secondary roads had a mix of bare pavement and ice, and other roads looked like skating rinks

The bulk of the power outages as of 8 a.m. were close to Montpelier and in the Connecticut River Valley between Rockingham and St. Johnsbury. Nearly 3,700 homes and businesses were without power as of around 7 a.m., but that declined slightly to 3,200 or so by 7:45 a.m.  That might be a hint that the worst is behind us, fingers crossed!

REST OF TODAY

It was still raining pretty hard and steadily around Vermont as of 8 a.m. That will continue more or less for a few more hours. It looks like this morning's rain will be steadier and heavier in the southern half of the state, compared to the north. 

The rain statewide will tend to get a little more showery as we head toward late morning, and the bulk of the rain should be done by 4 p.m or so, if not earlier.   

The storm's cold front will blow through early this afternoon, changing any remaining rain to snow towards dusk.

But by then, we will have lost the deeper moisture, so we won't have much accumulation.  But by the evening commute, any water left over on the roads your driveway, your walkway will freeze, so it will continue to be dangerous underfoot.

Dustings of snow atop the ice will make it even more slick. The northern and central Green Mountains might pick up two or three inches of snow by tomorrow morning, so nothing spectacular.

Since it will be cold for the foreseeable future, you will need to be careful for the next several days, or even weeks, as the ice on untreated surfaces will remain. 

This will be a sharp return to frigid weather. Temperatures will be within a few degrees either side of 10 degrees by dawn Tuesday. Gusty winds will make it feel much colder. 

It looks like for at least the next week starting tomorrow, it will stay colder and drier than normal with only light snows. I'll get more into that in future posts, once we get past today's storm.  

Sunday Evening Storm: Midwest Has Blizzards And Tornadoes, Vermont/New England Still Bracing For Ice

A view of the increasing clouds during the middle of
this afternoon over St. Albans, Vermont ahead of 
tonight's ice. If you look carefully at the horizon, it's
hazy. Pollutants were being trapped under the
inversion that will make the overnight
freezing rain possible. 

We still are on track for a spell of icy, dangerous driving weather here in Vermont, part of an intense storm that continues to raise havoc around the Great Lakes and Midwest.  

I  don't think I've seen a winter storm in the United States this powerful and wide ranging, with such a wide variety of weather and strong winds since December, 2022. 

I also think in New England, this might be arguably be the most extensive ice storm since 2008.

Here in Vermont, both the 2022 storm, which caused extensive wind damage in Vermont, was definitely worse than this will be, The 2008 ice storm mainly caused some problems in southern Vermont and really trashed central New England. 

The 2008 storm cut power to 30,000 homes and businesses in southern Vermont. We'll see how close we get to that tomorrow, but I'm so far convinced it won't be as bad as in 2008.

The general outlook for this storm here in Vermont hasn't changed much since this morning. Everybody is still in line to get a dose of freezing rain. 

The winter weather advisory is still in effect statewide. Except for most of eastern Vermont. There, the advisory has been upgraded to an ice storm warning. Some areas under that ice storm warning could get a half inch of ice accumulation. That's definitely enough for some trees, branches and power lines to fail.

The warning also states that travel will be nearly impossible during tomorrow morning's commute 

It still looks like the freezing rain will advance from the southwest during the first part of the night, arriving everywhere south and west of Interstate 89 by 11 p.m. or so. It'll spread into the rest of the state over the next couple of hours after that. 

East of the Green Mountains, the freezing rain will probably last well into Monday morning in most places. We're still looking at enough ice in some spots to weigh down tree and power lines enough to break them. 

I'd charge all your devices this evening and pop down to the store real quick if you need any more food or supplies to get you through tomorrow. Also, if possible, move your car from beneath any branches that might give way.

Above freezing temperatures might arrive in the Champlain Valley a wee bit earlier than predicted this morning. That might improve the morning commute there a bit. Again, we'll see.

But even if it's above freezing, pavement that hasn't been salted or sanded will still super icy.  The thin scrim of snow now on gravel roads will have been turned to ice by dawn and stay that way much of the morning. 

So it's no picnic in the Champlain Valley, either. 

It also still looks like almost everyone east of the Greens will have a brief interlude during the afternoon where it gets above freezing. That should melt at least some of the ice.   

The more ice that comes off the trees and power lines the better during that thawing, because winds will really pick up tomorrow night as temperatures plunge. Those winds could gust as high as 40 mph. This is a windy, big storm system after all. 

It'll be in the low teens, give or take, by Tuesday morning. Backside snowfall Monday night and Tuesday won't amount to much. Most valleys will have an inch or less, while the central and northern Green Mountains could pick up a few inches.

THE STORM ELSEWHERE 

As expected, blizzard conditions are raging in parts of Minnesota and are moving into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. 

A no travel advisory was in effect in much of western and southern Minnesota due to heavy snow and strong winds this afternoon. A blizzard warning is still in effect for parts of the state this evening. 

 Not far to the south and east, in Illinois and Indiana, the storm pulled oddly warm, humid air from the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures there reached the mid-60s to low 70s. Dewpoints were in the sticky low 60s, which is incredibly high for this time of year. 

The system's approaching strong cold front was slamming into the muggy air, setting off some pretty strong thunderstorms in Illinois and Indiana. A tornado watch was in effect in the two states late this afternoon. A few tornado warnings have also been issued for the area.

The same places in which tornadoes might have touched down will see temperatures in the teens by morning. Talk about a flip-flop!