Crazy Vermont/Northeast Heat About To End; Records Set, MUCH Cooler Air On Our Doorsteps

A sea of lilacs as viewed from my back deck in St. 
Albans, Vermont. The hot temperatures of the past
few days made them rapidly bloom. Hopefully
the upcoming cooler weather will preserve the
blooms and the fragrance for awhile. 

 We just managed to do it yesterday in Burlington. 

After clouds held temperatures in the 86 or 87 degree range much of the afternoon, skies cleared and helped boost temperatures to 90 degrees again. Second day in a row that happened. Tuesday's high fell just one degree short of the record high set in 1989.

Other cities in the Northeast set record highs in a big way.

In Philadelphia, it was 98 degrees, setting a new record for the hottest temperature in the entire month of May. Newark, New Jersey at 99 degrees and Manchester, New Hampshire at 97 degrees tied the record high for the month of May. 

Manchester shattered the record for the date by eight degrees, which is quite an accomplishment. 

Other record highs include 96 in Boston, 93 in Providence and 92 in Portland, Maine. 

All these are extraordinary hot temperatures for so early in the season.  

Back here in Vermont, unlike the day before, the morning didn't start cool. The low temperature in Burlington yesterday was  was 71 degrees, breaking a 123-year old record.

This May heat might portend a hot summer. The number crunching meteorologists at WCAX discovered that if the first 90 degree day of the year hits in June, which is what usually happens, on average the enter year will have eight days of 90 degree heat.

If the first 90 hits in May, then on average 11 days during the year will touch at least 90 

Also yesterday, those thunderstorms failed to materialize in Vermont. As we mentioned yesterday, it could have gone either way.  A weather disturbance that could have touched off some storms passed through the Green Mountain State in the late morning. That was too early to touch off anything more than light showers.

The disturbance did generate some thunderstorms in far southern Vermont and in southern New England. The storms in Connecticut were strong enough to knock down a few trees. 

TODAY

Big changes are afoot, but it will take a little while to get here. 

Early morning temperatures across Vermont were extraordinarily warm.  At 7 a.m, Burlington hit their low temperature for the day so far at 76 degrees. Not long after dawn at 6 a.m., it was 74 in Montpelier and Rutland and 72 degrees in Newport. These would easily be candidates for the hottest, stuffiest nights of the month in July. 

We won't set any records for highest low temperature today because by midnight tonight, it will much cooler than what we saw early today. 

Our cold front looked like it was in eastern New York as of 8 a.m. today and will come through Vermont thorough the rest of this morning.  Forecasts call for highs to get cut off in the upper 70s to near 80 north and in the low to perhaps mid 80s far south. 

Meanwhile, our friends in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States will endure one more torrid May day. 

Here in lilac-scented Vermont, though, you'll notice the change in the air today by mid afternoon north and late afternoon south. Even thought the sun should come out, temperatures will be slowly falling amid northwest breezes, humidity levels will fall. Summer will temporally end in favor of spring. 

THURSDAY

You'll need to dig out your fleece and long pants if you're taking your dog for a walk early tomorrow. We'll wake up to early morning temperatures in the low 40s. That's not ridiculous for May, but it is another shocking weather whiplash moment. 

Highs will only get into the 50s to near 60 north and low to mid 60s south, which is actually about 10 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Skies should be at least partly sunny, but there might be some more clouds north and mountains away from the Champlain Valley. 

Away from the Champlain Valley, we're actually back to a risk of some frost in some spots Thursday night and early Friday morning. We'll have more details on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 

This will feature a standoff between strong, cool high pressure in far eastern Quebec and coastal southeast Canada and storminess to our south and west. 

Depending on how this sets up, it could either be cloudy and cool or partly sunny and seasonable. I'm not yet sure where we're going to go with this. Friday has the best chance of being sunny and nice. Saturday will probably be rain-free, especially north. Showers might or might not come in Sunday, and those showers are somewhat more likely Monday. 

Whatever happens, it looks like whatever rain we get will end up being quite light.

Places further south will have an even bigger change in the weather. Cities like Newark and Philadelphia that were in the upper 90s Tuesday will probably have highs barely making it into the low 50s Saturday under rainy skies. 

Back here in Vermont, we'll probably warm up nicely next week. There's mixed signals as to whether it will be just seasonably warm in the 70s or quite warm in the 80s. But we have time to figure that out.  

Flash Heat Wave Monday, Questions About Heat And Storms Today, Then Sharply Cooler Late Week

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still extends their
slight risk of severe thunderstorms into Vermont.
(Everything in yellow is a slight risk).

That was a wild weather ride on Monday! 

Northern Vermont in particular endured the day's weather whiplash. As I noted in yesterday morning's post, the day began stormy and cold with fitful downpours, local gusty winds and even a rumble or two of thunder. 

Burlington reached 90 degrees by late afternoon, after a rainy early morning low of 51 degrees. By afternoon, we were sweating in a brief May heat wave that is already over-performing. 

I saw somewhere on social media where somebody in Vermont said they ran their furnace in the morning and air conditioner in the afternoon.

I'd call it a flash heat wave. Like a sudden flash flood, only hot air, not water. 

The day featured a rare temperature stat: Burlington had its first 80 degree temperature of the season Sunday. And only a day later, the first 90 of the season hit.  The same thing happened in April, 2002, but I wonder if this week and 2002 were the only times something like that happened. 

There has always been the occasional May in Burlington in which the temperature hit 90. But probably at least in part due to climate change, 90 degree May days are getting more common. In the 109 years in Burlington ending in 2009, we had 14 Mays that reached at least 90 degrees.

But in the 16 years since 2010, there have already been eight such days in May.  

Elsewhere in Vermont, the high in Bennington Monday was 89 degrees. Montpelier reached 86 degrees after a morning low of 46.  A temperature change of 40 degrees in just one day is pretty wild. 

The heat isn't only a Vermont thing, of course. Philadelphia reached 96 degrees Monday, a record for the date. It was also the second hottest May temperature on record.  In New York City, a high of 95 is expected today, followed by an incredibly stuffy overnight low tonight of 77. It should hit 90 degrees in the Big Apple again tomorrow. 

Heat advisories are in effect for much of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Hartford, Connecticut had its second day in a row of 90 degree temperatures Monday. Today's forecast high there is a whopping 96 degrees. The forecast high in Springfield today is 97.

VERMONT FORECAST

Back here in Vermont, the degree of heat today will depend on the level of cloud cover.  Severe thunderstorms are also possible, but there might be factors that allow us to luck out and avoid the worst of the storms. Maybe. 

We're certainly off to a very warm, muggy start. It looks like the low temperature this morning in Burlington was 71 degrees, so if you didn't sleep well in the Champlain Valley, that's why. If that low temperature holds through midnight, it'll break the record for warmest low temperature for the date. (The current record holder is 67 degrees way back in 1903.  

As the day goes on the valleys of southern Vermont have the best chance of reaching 90 degrees today, as they'll have the most sun.  The National Weather Service forecast for Springfield, for instance is 92 degrees.

I think clouds might prevent another 90 degree day in Burlington today, we'll see about that. There was already a batch of clouds and light showers in central and western New York early this morning. Those clouds might not clear out fast enough to allow another 90 degree day. Though we're starting out pretty warm, so it's still possible. 

The next question is severe thunderstorms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 alert on a scale of 5 - for the northwest half of Vermont and a level one marginal risk for the southeast. 

The amount of instability in the atmosphere over us isn't huge over us today, which is a limiting factor for storms. But there is a subtle disturbance in the atmosphere due by early afternoon. That, combined with rising air near mountains could trigger some storms.

Also, cool air coming off of Lake Champlain sometimes creates these teeny tiny miniature cold fronts which are boundaries between the cool lake air and the warmer inland air. Those could be triggering spots for storms. After that, cool winds blasting out of thunderstorms could set up additionally teeny tiny little cold fronts elsewhere, which would trigger more storms. 

Bottom line: Some of us will see showers or storms, some of us will stay dry.  A small number of us could experience strong, even damaging winds from storms. This won't be a widespread severe storm event. 

We don't know who, if anybody will get those rambunctious storms. Pay attention to the skies if you're outdoors, and have a way to receive severe storm warnings, just in case. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

After another stuffy night coming up, Wednesday will bring another big change. A cold front will stumble through, in the morning north, afternoon south and east. The timing of it means the north will probably just see some scattered showers in the morning, with clearing skies and highs in the 70s during the afternoon. 

Southeast Vermont could see some thunderstorms but severe ones seem unlikely, at least for now. Highs in the south look like they want to get up into the 80s

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More big changes in a roller coaster of a weather week. We'll wake up to sharply colder temperatures Thursday morning with lows in the 38 to 45 degrees. Under at least partly sunny if not clear skies, temperatures should only get into the mid and upper 50s north,  and some 60s south. 

Since it will be so cool, there might be some frost Thursday night and early Friday in areas of Vermont away from the Champlain Valley.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

A toss up on how the holiday weekend will turn out. The American weather model keeps showers at bay Saturday and Sunday, leaving us with partly sunny skies and cool highs in the 60s.  The European model brings showers into our area Saturday and Sunday. Both models give us some showers on Monday, Memorial Day. 

Rumbles Of Thunder This Morning Are Another Big Sign Of Vermont Spring

Lightning detector map from shortly before 5:30 a.m today
shows strikes especially across central Vermont and in
the far northern Champlain Valley. 

Many of us across Vermont, New York an New Hampshire woke up to the sound of thunder before dawn today.  

I would imagine some found the noise vaguely annoying. I happily found it that best confirmation yet that spring is here. 

Thunderstorms get more common as we head into the warmer months.  The warmer air and the increased moisture in spring and summer can create the rapidly rising air needed to create lightning. 

Now, it wasn't exactly warm while these storms were coming through northern New England this morning. In fact. a few spots in eastern Vermont and New Hampshire might have been getting freezing rain while lightning was flashing. Thunderice?  Not sure what to call it. 

But there was warm air.  The storms were triggered by a warm front moving in.  The warm air aloft pushed ahead of the front helped create the balmy lift in the air, leading to the lightning flashes. 

For some reason warm fronts coming through in the pre-dawn hours in April often turn out to be create the first thunderstorms of the year in Vermont. So the timing and nature of our thunder early today was pretty classic. Judging from lightning detector maps, the storm with the most lightning cut across central Vermont early this morning. 

Another area of lightning just clipped northwest Vermont.  Here in St. Albans, I heard a few rumbles around 4:30 a.m., along with a brief downpour and strong, gusty winds. So it was noticeable. 

The showers and thunderstorms were moving along at a fast pace, so nobody is getting all that much rain. Even if a thunderstorm has a downpour associated with it, the heavier rain hasn't been staying in one place very long. 

Bottom line: The storms are cool, but are not causing any real trouble. 

REST OF TODAY

As of 6:30 a.m., a little more lightning was flashing near Rutland, and in central New York, so we're probably not quite done with it yet. The warm front will pass through later this morning, ending the threat of more thunder and most showers. 

It was in the 30s to near 40 early this morning amid the showers and rumbles of thunder ahead of the warm front. Once it passes through, temperatures will zoom into the low 60s for most of us. This will be the mildest day we'll have for awhile, so enjoy it. Some sun will mix in, too, to give the crocuses a little boost. 

Winds were really screaming from the south early this morning, especially in the Champlain Valley. I'm on an exposed hillside in St Albans, and I would estimate some gusts were up to around 50 mph. I'm noticing a smattering of power outages in northwest Vermont, so don't be surprised if your power at least flickers this morning in the Champlain Valley. 

It'll stay breezy to windy all day, but the strongest winds were probably happening as I wrote this around 7 a.m. They'll diminish some as we go through the day. 

All in all, despite the stormy start of the day, it'll be a rather nice one. 

THE WEEKEND

Our storm will drag a lame cold front through tonight, cooling us off only slightly. Saturday will be generally cloudy and mild-ish as the next storm approaches. By mild-ish, I mean low 50s, just a few degrees above average.

This one probably won't have any thunder an lightning with it. The showers will definitely ramp up, though, Saturday night and Sunday morning.  We'll have more rain than the light stuff we're having this morning. 

Between Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon, it looks like we'll have roughly half an inch of rain, with perhaps a little more than that up along the Canadian border and a little less in far southern Vermont.  Don't worry about any flooding: Rivers will probably rise somewhat, but fall short of any real flooding. 

Highs Sunday will be in the 50s. 

BRIEF WINTER

The cold front with the second storm will be much stronger than tonight's so it will get much colder Sunday. Lingering rain showers will at least mix with, if not change to snow showers Sunday night and continue into Monday. 

Don't worry too much about the snow showers, They'll the light and scattered and mostly in the hills ad mountains. 

The first half of the week will be cold, with highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s and lows solidly below freezing. Yes, that's chilly for this time of year, but not really odd for early April. We should be able to sneak back up into the pleasant 50s for the second half of the week. 

Storm Departs, Cold Air Arrives; Here In Vermont 60s To Snow In Three Hours

It looked nice enough out my window this morning, but
it was very blustery and cold. Traditional March winds
are back and they sure aren't warm. 

 For the second time in a week, today's a day in Vermont that on paper looks like it was a nice spring day. However, it was   anything but. 

Much like last Thursday, some parts of the Green Mountain State were in the 60s just after midnight this morning. That sure as hell didn't last long.

In Burlington it was 65 degrees at 1 a.mo So mid-60s will be the high temperature for today.. An hour later, it was 40 degrees. It's was snowing a little by 4 a.m. 

The only thing that hasn't changed is the wind speed.  A wind advisory still exists until 11 a.m. today for gusts out of the west as high as 50 mph. 

Nearly 12,000 Vermont homes and businesses were without power at around 4 a.m., mostly due to the initial, stronger surges of wind with the cold front. As of 8 a.m., the number of those outages has been halved, so we're making progress. 

TODAY/TOMORROW

We've got a couple of really cold days for this time of year coming up. And we have no return to spring weather in the forecast - at least not for the next week to 10 days. Sorry to be such a gloomy Gus, but there you go. It's March in Vermont. Deal with it. 

It was still near 32 degrees across Vermont as of around 8 a.m. But those temperatures will stay steady or even slowly fall as we go through the day.  Those of us who got a thin scrim of snow from the cold front will get very little additional snow. However, some snow showers will roam the state, especially in the Green Mountains for the rest of today. 

Tonight, lows will drop to the upper single numbers to low teens, making it the coldest night since March. This is nowhere near record cold, but it's a chilly slap on the fast. 

Tomorrow won't be any warmer, but at least it won't be so windy. And it will be sunny.  A sunny 30-degree day in March feels better than a sunny 30-degree day at the end of December. A higher sun angle makes things feel a lot better.

The rest of the week into next week appears to be unsettled and chilly. We'll have a persistent northwest flow, with cooler than normal air and weak disturbances coming through pretty much every other ray with light rain an snow showers. 

This is the pattern we endured in much of the winter. We just can't seem to shake it for any longer than a week or so. I have no idea when it will end. At least normal temperatures are rising fast now, so it's getting harder and harder to get really cold.

Since we're getting into the second half of March, most days in this regime will get into the 30s to low 40s. That's better than the teens and low 20s for highs we had so often during the winter.

And someday, spring will get here.

Monday Vermont Evening Weather Update: Those Expected BIG Changes Coming Overnight

A have one patch of a really early variety of daffodil, so
I was happy to see this in today's warmth. (My other
daffodils are barely nubs emerging from the earth)
It's going to be awhile before all these grow further
as tonight's cold front will snap us back to reality. 

 I hope you enjoyed our incredibly brief warm spell today in Vermont because the cold front that will end it all is on our doorstep.

It was actually quite nice this afternoon as the wind died down, as expected and temperatures rose into the upper 50s.  We might not end up quite as warm as forecast, but 58 or so is still really nice for this time of year.

As winds increase this evening, some places will temporarily warm up even more.  Burlington went from 56 to 66 degrees between 6 and 7 p.m. as south winds started blowing there. 

As the front approaches this evening, winds will probably pick up again.   Some showers that were moving into Vermont as of 5:30 p.m. might limit the winds a little bit. But don't necessarily count on that. 

A wind advisory is still in effect for Vermont, and that has been extended to through 11 a.m Tuesday. More on why the advisory stays in effect for part of tomorrow further down a bit. A high wind warning remains in effect for a good chunk of northern New York. 

The rain should be showery, off and on for the next few hours. It'll briefly rain hard in many places when the front comes through later tonight.  This morning we said that should not be enough to cause flooding and that's still the case. So a bit of good news there. 

The actual cold front seems to be temporarily slowing down somewhat on approach to Vermont. Some of the computer models don't actually bring it into western Vermont until a little before midnight.  

The front will still be super noticeable when it comes through tonight for anyone who is still up. The temperature over in Syracuse, New York went from 66 to 46 degrees with an hour earlier this afternoon

In Vermont you'll wake up a completely different world than today's. Temperatures will be down to around 30, give or take. There might be a dusting of snow on the ground and the puddles will all be frozen. A cold west wind will be screaming with gust to 50 mph. Which is why that wind advisory is still in effect tomorrow. 

Expect a few scattered power outages between now and noon tomorrow. 

The winds will begin to slow down a little in the afternoon, but it'll still be blustery as hell. And actual temperatures will remain below freezing all day. Wednesday will also stay at or below freezing for most of us, but the wind should be lighter. 

It'll warm up a tiny bit for the end of the week, but it will be quite awhile before we see any balmy weather again. 

Saturday Morning In Vermont: Snow Showers Harass, Then Much Bigger, Windy Storm Looms

There wasn't much snow in most places across Vermont last
night, along Route 108 in Stowe, it looks like a few
inches accumulated and it was still snowing as of 9:40 a.m

From what I can tell, snowfall across most of Vermont was pretty paltry overnight. 

It looks like the Champlain Valley got next to nothing. There was a trace in Burlington and here in St. Albans we received 0.2 inches.  

I'm on my fainting couch now wondering how I can possibly dig out from that! Oh, never mind, the sun peeking through the clouds is taking care of that. 

The fainting couch is just some PTSD, the Pi Day Blizzard of 2017 was just wrapping up on this date. On that occasion, I had 30 inches of snow to shovel. 

Anyway, no repeat of the Pi Day Blizzard seems to be looming. Traffic camera images suggest a lot of places outside the Champlain Valley did manage an inch or two. Some of the higher elevations look like they probably got more.

Snow will continue to harass us the rest of today, but don't worry, we'll survive. The mountains will probably pick up an additional couple inches. Some of the snow showers might increase in intensity for awhile this afternoon and evening over the central and  northern Green Mountains and in the Northeast Kingdom.

BIG STORM

The major story is the enormous windbag of a storm developing in the middle of the U.S. Some of the worst impacts will be in upper Midwest In Minnesota and Wisconsin, where up to two feet of snow might fall with this thing.  

The storm's powerful cold front will trigger severe thunderstorms in the Midwest, South and eventually the East Coast south of New England. There will probably be some tornadoes in the mix, but the main threat from the thunderstorms along the cold front will be widespread damaging winds.

For us in Vermont, we get to enjoy strong winds, a brief spurt of very warm air for this time of year and a quick blast of rain.

Strong south winds will begin to blow overnight Sunday and continue through most of the day Monday ahead of the storm's solid cold front. Meteorologists are still trying to get a handle on how windy it will get and where the worst gusts will blast.

How strong the winds get depends in part on whether a large batch of rain comes through during the day Monday. That might happen, or the precipitation might hold off until the big cold front hits in the evening. I imagine the National Weather Service might eventually issue some wind advisories or even possibly high wind warnings for Monday. We shall see!

We'll get more clarity on those winds tomorrow and we will forward that along.

Temperatures should get into the low 60s amid the gusty south winds on Monday. Those won't be record highs because Monday is the anniversary of a crazy 1990 hot spell that brought temperatures to 78 degrees in Burlington. 

We should get some pretty good downpours just ahead and along the cold front Monday evening.  Fortunately,  most of the ice has been flushed out of the rivers so we're good there. At this point, I'd say we're at risk for minor flooding here and there. 

It will turn sharply colder overnight Monday and all that water will freeze up.  We can expect some snow showers, too, but they won't amount to much. Tuesday looks quite windy and cold as the storm moves off into Canada.  

Tuesday Evening Vermont Weather Update: Shockingly Warm Today, Still Expected Yo-Yo Temperatures Now Through Thursday

Henry the Weather Dog on Tuesday got to do something
he hasn't really been able to do since October: Bask in the
warm sun. You can sort of see him smiling there
he was so happy 

The warmth in Vermont and surrounding areas really over-performed today, didn't it? 

It felt almost like summer. Henry the Weather Dog was able to bask in the warm sun for the first time since October. He was one happy camper!

I think some compressional warming ahead of the cold front that entered northern Vermont this afternoon helped boost the temperatures. The front, as it pushed southward, sort of squeezed the air, i.e. compressing it. When air compresses it tends to warm up. 

Whatever caused it, things were incredibly balmy.  Burlington reached 73 degrees, according to preliminary data. That  shatters the previous record high of 63 set in 2002. It's also the hottest temperature for so early in the season. Those "so early" or "so late" in the season record highs are especially hard to achieve. But Burlington managed it today. 

Other record highs include 63 degrees in Plattsburgh, NY; 71 degrees (wow!) in St. Johnsbury (old record was 64 in 2016);  and 67 in Montpelier, old record 60 in 2016). 

 Rutland and Springfield got up to at least 70 degrees, Bennington was at least 73 degrees. So much for my prediction this morning that there was just a chance a place or two in Vermont might reach 70.  Instead it was pretty widespread. 

The temperatures I listed are not final figures, so they might be updated later.  

COLDER AIR

I mentioned the cold front. Once it arrives it means business. Highgate was one of the first Vermont towns to see the cold front. They got up to 66 degrees at around 1:30 and were down to 51 buy 5 p.m. Burlington dropped ten degrees to 59 in the hour ending at 5 p.m. 

In most of central and northern Vermont, temperatures will bottom out in the 30s, and it'll get below freezing in some spots north of Route 2.  The northern Champlain Valley has the best shot at going below freezing. 

A winter weather advisory is still in effect for Grand Isle County late tonight and tomorrow morning for the risk of light freezing rain.  There could be some icy spots on the roads tomorrow morning there. And perhaps elsewhere in far northern Vermont. 

At least Vermont will miss out on the worst of this ice storm. Far northwest New York, southern Quebec from Ottawa to Montreal to Sherbrooke, northern and Central Maine and even northern Michigan. 

 WEDNESDAY

A large ice jam was still holding firm along the Missisquoi
River in Enosburg as of late this morning. 
Ice jams and regular flooding are a threat through
Thursday with more snow melt and expected rain. 

It does look like our storm will go by to our northwest, which means winds should shift to southerly during the day tomorrow. 

Highs should get into the 50s in western Vermont, maybe even low 60s southwest. The warmer air will have a bit of a harder time getting into eastern Vermont, but it will be above freezing. 

It probably won't rain much during the day except in the northwest. But today's warmth, lingering ice jams, snow melt and that rain will keep the risk of flooding going into Thursday. 

I noticed late this morning a large ice jam was holding pretty firm on the Missisquoi River in Enosburg , and it was causing minor flooding. 

Thursday will turn sharply colder and windy. And an active weather pattern will continue afterward. I'll have much more on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

 

Flood Watch, Ice, Rain And Temperature Gyrations Galore In Vermont

An ice jam seen here along the Great 
Chazy River in Moores, New York
badly damaging a campground
Vermont continues to be at risk
for ice jams and flooding, too.

It's going to be almost impossible to write this post without being confusing as temperatures and weather conditions are going to be all over the place over the next day or two. 

Almost literally wait a minute and it will change in some places.

The bottom line is there is a flood watch through Thursday afternoon. And our spring weather will fade over the next couple days amid rain, and even freezing rain. Then a little snow to top if off. Then more storms through next Monday. 

I told you it was complicated. 

YESTERDAY

Temperatures did over-perform somewhat Monday, just as I expected. Most forecasters predicted highs Monday to get up to around 60 degrees. Instead, most places got into the 60s. Rutland reached 68 degrees.

It was 65 degrees in Burlington, which made Monday the warmest day since October 20. Ice jams are still out there, the snow is still melting, so the flood watch continues today, tomorrow and into Thursday.   

TODAY

The warmth party will start to end north of Route 2 this afternoon. That weird cold front is north of Montreal and heading steadily south, driven by another frigid high pressure over northern Quebec. If you remember, we went through the same thing last week. 

This time, today's temperatures will zoom upward this morning, and then get cut off at the pass by the low level cold air coming south. It'll be most noticeable in the northern Champlain Valley and some areas near the Canadian border in the Northeast Kingdom. In those areas, temperatures will fall, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into tonight. 

A couple light showers might accompany the cold front in the north. 

In central and southern Vermont the cold front won't be noticeable until tonight, and not to the extent you'll see in the north. Highs will get well into the 60s today. A spot 70 degree reading is entirely out the question.

TONIGHT:

Here's where things get complicated. It looks like it will cool off enough in far northern Vermont where we will probably end up with some freezing rain, especially in the northern Champlain Valley. That's a real cold slap to end our beautiful "false spring"

So far, it doesn't look like much ice will accumulate. But it's tricky, because it's hard to tell how extensive and persistent this thin layer of cold air near the ground will be. That will determine how much ice there is. A winter weather advisory is up for Grand Isle County. That advisory goes from 11 p.m. tonight. It ends at 2 p.m. tomorrow, reflected the uncertainty with the temperatures and the ice. 

Some areas in far northern Vermont might have an icy drive to work tomorrow morning. Which would be a shock if you've been wandering around outdoors in shorts for the past couple of days. 

For now it's wait and see on the potential for ice elsewhere in the north. Stay tuned for updated forecasts later today. 

WEDNESDAY

Expected rainfall now through Thursday. Heaviest rain
is forces in New York. But in Vermont, rain combined
with snow melt will be enough to cause ice jams
and put some rivers into flood stage. 

The thinking for tomorrow is the storm will go by a little to our west, dragging that cold front back as a warm front.  If t
hat happens as forecasters think, then temperatures will rebound into the 50s for most of Vermont. 

This will keep the rain and snow melt going. So far, the flooding in Vermont has been mostly isolated near ice jams. The rain and continued snow melt would expand the flooding to rivers across the state. 

At this point, it doesn't look like a major flood. But as ice jams break up, there could be unpredictable, sudden changes in water levels.  The usual low lying roads will probably get submerged like they often do in the spring. 

Rainfall looks like it will total a half inch to an inch west of the Green Mountains, with the most north. Eastern Vermont should have about a third of an inch south to a half inch north. With the snow melt, that's more than enough to push at least some rivers over their banks.

I'll have more on how extensive the flooding might be in tomorrow morning's report. 

As you can imagine, the weird temperature forecast for the next 24 hours is tricky, so we'll probably see some forecast adjustments. For now this just gives you the best guess on how this will turn out.  Just basically be prepared for temperatures in the low 30s to mid 60s, especially north, now through tomorrow. 

Yes, I know that's not very helpful. But March is almost always a strange weather month.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY

The forecast actually gets a little easier by the time we get to Thursday. The storm's final cold front will come through, dropping temperatures and ending the rain as a little snow in some areas. We won't see ,much accumulation 

Another, smaller storm looks likely later Friday and Friday night. That could drop a few inches of snow in some spots, especially the mountains. The snow might be mixed with rain for part of this storm in warmer valleys. 

Then, a larger storm is in the cards toward Sunday and Monday. This one looks like it will come with a fair amount of wind, and worse, changing precipitation types. 

Windy Warmth This Morning To Turn Into Frigid Sunday/Monday Chill Across Vermont

A mount of snow partly obscures the view out of my home
office window in St. Albans, Vermont. I hoping
some thawing later next week restores the full view

So far, the forecast is holding up for one more shot of Arctic air blasting into Vermont, but - at least in the warmer zones - this could be the last spell of below zero weather until next winter. 

I hope the above sentence doesn't jinx things.

As expected, it's mild and windy out there, especially in the Champlain Valley. There, temperatures and peak wind gusts give you roughly the same numbers. The temperatures are near 40, and so are the maximum gusts. 

Some towns in eastern Vermont were still in the teens to lower 20s as of 7 a.m., as those warm southerly winds hadn't been able to reach into those valleys yet. But don't worry,  those of you in the Connecticut River Valley will see some brief thawing today as temperatures rocket upward. Briefly. 

Temperatures should stay in that low 40s range until early afternoon north when that Arctic cold front comes through. Southern Vermont will wait a little longer for the front, so they might actually peak in the early to mid-afternoon as our Arctic front comes on through.

A few light raindrops or snowflakes might get squeezed out of this front, but there won't be much. I'm seeing a band of light rain in New York State this morning with this front, but the air in Vermont is pretty dry, so that'll evaporate a lot of that precipitation. 

LITTLE SNOW/LOTS OF COLD

We're still looking at a patch of light snow racing eastward across New England tomorrow morning. The forecast is still a little shaky with this, as different computer  models have slightly different ideas on how much much and where. We do know the snowfall will be light. 

As of this morning, forecasters are going for one to 2.5 inches in southern and central Vermont. That amount should also hit areas slammed by this week's blizzard in southern New England.  I'm sure residents there are thrilled. 

Northern Vermont should only expect an inch or less. I'll note this forecast might change a bit by later today.

We're much more confident that snow will clear out to reveal a frigid Sunday afternoon for this time of year with temperatures not climbing out of the teens in many areas. As winds die down in the evening, we're set up for perfect conditions for a frigid night. 

Light winds, clear skies and a snow cover, plus that Arctic air ensure all of us in Vermont should be below zero by dawn's early light Monday morning.  Some places will be in the teens below zero. Monday should be bright and cold with highs in the teens and low 20s. Frigid, yes, but the strong early March sun should make it feel a little better.

I guess we can say March is coming in like a lion this year. 

WARMUP

The weather pattern is definitely changing toward a warmer one after we get through our two-day Arctic blast.  That doesn't mean we get a reprieve from wintry weather, but at least we'll have some thawing temperatures thrown in at times, and the maple sugarers can start their season in earnest.

It looks like we'll get a little snow later Tuesday and Tuesday night, but it's too early to talk accumulation just yet. 

Another system looks like it might throw some mixed precipitation at us toward the end of the week. But that mix at this point looks like it might trend toward rain as temperatures hit the 40s. At least hopefully! 

March starts tomorrow, so now it will keep getting harder and harder for temperatures to stay below freezing. The weather over the next couple of days will be harsh, but the worst of winter is over. 

More Wintry Weather But Very Little New Snow Coming For Vermont

Henry The Weather Dog takes a quick measurement
of last night's very light snow in St Albans, Vermont
before rushing back into his warm house

 Yesterday's series of fronts left us with just the slightest amount of new snow. Which is fine, since I've really soured on the idea of shoveling heaps of it. 

Burlington has just 0.3 inches of snow. Here in St. Albans, it amounted to 0.8 inches, in other words just shy of an inch. 

I'm sure some of the ski resorts picked up one to three inches to freshen things up a bit  But we're not exactly going through a big cleanup like post-blizzard southern New England continues to deal with. 

Some of us might see a couple more snow showers this morning, but it any snowflakes appear in the sky, it won't amount to anything.

For some of of us, especially in the Champlain Valley the high temperature today hit just after midnight before cooler air began flowing in.  Temperatures today will stay just below freezing. An exception might be southern Vermont valleys, which could sneak up to 33 or 34 degrees.

We've got another cold one coming tonight, as that seems to be our style this winter. By dawn tomorrow, most of us will be in the single numbers above zero, but the cold spots will get below zero. Those readings will seem mild compared to what's coming by Monday. More on that in a bit.

On Friday, strong end of February sun will get us into the low and mid 30s, which is about normal for this time of year. 

ARCTIC COLD FRONT

It still appears we'll have an ever so brief, sort of hint of spring on Saturday, but it definitely won't be all chirping birds and blossoms.

As it warms up Saturday morning, a stiff south wind will kick up, especially in the Champlain Valley. Winds there will gust over 40 mph. Which means it won't exactly feel balmy out there. 

The cold front should arrive in the afternoon, so we might see temperatures already falling before sunset. 

We'll probably will see some snow showers, with maybe a little bit of rain Saturday before the cold front arrives. Again, anything that comes out of the sky Saturday won't amount to much. 

As the cold air blasts in Saturday night and Sunday, a disturbance scooting in from the west might drop a little snow on us. But those indecisive compute models disagree on whether that would happen and if it does, how much snow we'll get.

For now, anyway, it doesn't look like the snow will amount to much more than an inch, but we'll keep you posted. 

We're definitely sure we have a late season Arctic blast on our hands. It'll hit just as March arrives, so it won't have the intensity of cold snaps we saw in late January and early February. 

Still, it'll be a shiver me timbers couple of days. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday will be in the teens, which is a good 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Lows Monday morning will be well below zero. Early guesses are in the single numbers below zero in the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont hot spots, and the teens below elsewhere. 

Tuesday morning lows might be below zero too.

There's a fairly decent chance that in the warmer spots in Vermont, like around Burlington, the chill early next week might well be the last subzero temperatures until next winter.

Beyond early next week, the forecast gets hazy. It will warm up at least a little, There might be some sort of small storm next Wednesday, but that still has a lot of question marks attached to it.

 The computer models are still insisting on a true thaw beginning roughly a week from now. .That thaw would last several days if these models are correct. But, you've heard me say before I don't trust these long range forecasts, and nothing is changing my mind here.

I continue to hope for that thaw, but know that by the time we get to a week from now, that thaw might well vanish in favor of more winter weather. 

However, since we're getting into March, it's going to be harder and harder for temperatures to stay below freezing all day. 

Bracing For The Cold Snap In Vermont/Northeast

Snow forecast through tomorrow. But the fluffy snow we'll'
get isn't our big problem. The Arctic cold this weekend will
be what to watch out for. 

 Editor's Note: I'm recovering from my Wednesday eye surgery, which went well, so I might be posting at odd times or not as frequently as usual for awhile yet. We apologize for the inconvenience.

It got below zero in most places around Vermont early today. That's become a bit of a routine. That's the 11th below zero day Burlington  has had this winter and there are several more coming. 

The last time we had more below zero days in a  winter was just a few years back in 2021-22 with 20 days zero or below. 

Back in the 1960s, 1970s or even 1980s, we'd routinely have two or three dozen subzero days each winter, so this is no great shakes compared to what your parents or grandparents went through. 

There are some things about the cold weather we've had this year that feel novel. On instance is, of course Lake Champlain, which, if it didn't completely freeze over last night, probably will between now and early next week. 

Many parts of Lake Champlain, including inside the Burlington Breakwater have been ice-free or too unsafe to walk on in recent years. This year the area between Burlington's Waterfront Park and the Breakwater have become a crowd pleaser.  

Until tonight, anyway, there hasn't been much snow at all since January 26. Sections of the lake, like some area inside the breakwater and many other areas, have become great for ice skating. 

Enjoy if you can this afternoon, as this weekend will be terrible for outdoor winter fun. 

It'll cloud up as we go through late this afternoon and evening ahead of our Blast from Siberia. 

The bulk of the snow should come through roughly between around midnight and mid-morning Saturday. A bit of an upper level low along the cold front might enhance the snowfall a little. It'll amount to two of three inches of fluff for most of us. Maybe a little less than that east of the Green Mountains. And maybe four to five inches right in the ski resort zones of the Green Mountains. 

The snow might briefly come fairly hard while the cold front is passing by early tomorrow morning. The best guess is the front will make it into the Champlain Valley by roughly 4 a.m. and will pass into New Hampshire within a couple hours, give or take, after that. 

Our daytime highs will be in the mid teens to around 20 in the wee hours of tomorrow before the Arctic front blasts through. The Arctic air means business and it will come in fast on strong north winds. The temperature will fall all day.

That fluffy snow will blow around in wind that will gust over 30 mph. So there will probably be visibility problems on the roads in open areas even after the snow stops. Travel on the highways won't be great for the first part of Saturday, so you'll want to fit that into your plans.

Various cold weather alerts are in effect, which might make things a little confusing. Here in the North Country, they issue a cold weather advisory if forecasters think the wind chill will be between 20 an 30 below. An extreme cold warning goes into effect if the wind chill is going to be 30 below or worse.

Since the cold air is arriving in New York first and will establish itself more deeply during the day, an extreme cold warning is in effect on that side of the lake from 7 a.m. tomorrow to 1 p.m. Sunday.  

The wind Saturday might be a bit stronger in southern Vermont than in the north, which would lower the wind chill somewhat. So the southernmost two counties in Vermont are also under an extreme cold warning tomorrow and tomorrow night.

The rest of Vermont is under a cold weather advisory from late tomorrow afternoon to early Sunday afternoon. 

I wouldn't worry about the distinction between cold advisories and warnings and exactly when they go into effect. Just know it will be dangerously frigid outdoors in Vermont and surrounding states and in Quebec from roughly mid to late morning tomorrow well into Sunday.

I'm almost happy I have an eye injury as it gives me yet another excuse not to go outside this weekend 

That little upper level low that's coming with our cold front will be an ingredient that will feed a "bomb cyclone" or rapidly developing nor'easter far offshore of New England. 

The squeeze play between that bomb cyclone and the Arctic air we have coming in from Siberia will keep the wind going Saturday night. That's when things get really bad. Overnight lows will be near 10 below, or maybe low teens below. But the winds will keep gusting to maybe 25 mph or so.  That's when the wind chills go into the 20s an 30s below.

It's the kind of night I worry about if somebody crashes off a road at 2 in the morning and just freezes to death there. Or an overworked wood stove sets a house on fire.  People who live there, escape out into the cold in their pajamas, if they're lucky enough to escape at all. Then imagine you're a fire chief managing the task of putting the fire out in that weather. 

All kinds of dark scenarios go through my head when it gets this cold. Winter doesn't always inspire a glass half full kind of attitude.

Anyway, we get to Sunday and it will be bright and sunny. Yay!  But the strengthening February sun will only briefly get us a little above zero in the afternoon, and we'll still have a north breeze to keep the wind chill ridiculous. 

The wind will die down a little Sunday night. But the air should stir enough to prevent us from getting to say 20 or 30 below, like it would if it went dead calm.

But expect lows in the teens below zero by early Monday morning. And wind chills perhaps in the 20s below again.  

A warming trend of sorts will start Monday. By then we should get into the low teens. That's still cold but will fantastic after the weekend we'll have.

The rest of the week will be probably just a tiny bit cooler than average for mid-February. We'll have highs in the 20s, lows in the single numbers. Pretty close to the way this week has been. We'll take it! 

Vermont Monday Morning Storm Update: Could Have Been Worse, But Still Icy/Messy. More Drama Ahead

An example of the challenge the freezing rain brought
this morning This traffic cam grab shows the pavement
on Route 125 in Ripton looking absolutely scary icy,
with trees weighed down by the ice, too. 

By 7:30 this morning, I heard the welcome thump of snow sliding off my roof here in St. Albans, Vermont. 

The told me the temperature was above freezing here, and the threat of more icing had passed. 

We're lucky the worst of this hit overnight. All roads were virtually impassable across the state at the peak of the icing late last night and in the predawn hours. 

Because the roads were so bad, all state offices were closed today. People who could work remotely were still on the job, but state officials warned that electricity and internet connectivity might be iffy. 

Overall, temperatures around dawn today were a little warmer than forecast, which is great news. Freezing rain overnight and this morning is still extensive, but not as disastrous as some forecasts last evening indicated. 

It turns out not many of us will have an half inch of ice or more breaking trees and power lines. A few places will have that, but not many. And there's plenty of trouble spots this morning. 

Let's got west to east across Vermont for a morning assessment:

Champlain Valley/Souithwest Vermont

As of 7:30 p.m. temperatures in the far southwest near Bennington were in the upper 30s, with mid 30s in the Champlain Valley. Main roads in those spots were just wet for your morning commute. But untreated surfaces like dirt roads, driveways and sidewalks were still awful. 

Try to avoid those dirt roads for awhile yet. And for gawd's sake watch your step. Here at my place in St Albans, the tree have no ice on them, but my driveway is scary as hell. 

Some places in western Vermont that are protected from the winds were still seeing freezing rain. Rutland and Middlebury were still at 32 degrees as of 7 a.m. 

Traffic cameras along Route 4 in West Rutland and Fair Haven still showed slick pavement and iced up trees as of a little bit before 8 a.m. I notice a smattering of power outages in central Rutland County. 

Central/Eastern Vermont

Traffic cam grab on Route 4 in Quechee a little
before 8 a.m. this morning looked pretty slick
Note that pine tree in the background was
sagging under the ice pretty badly. 

As expected, it's worse out there once you get to the Green Mountains and points east. A few places, like Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, were a bit above freezing before 8 a.m., many other places in this one were still at or a little below 32 degrees. 

Roads conditions on traffic cameras in these areas looked varied. Most of Interstate 91 seemed wet, with some icy areas. Some secondary roads had a mix of bare pavement and ice, and other roads looked like skating rinks

The bulk of the power outages as of 8 a.m. were close to Montpelier and in the Connecticut River Valley between Rockingham and St. Johnsbury. Nearly 3,700 homes and businesses were without power as of around 7 a.m., but that declined slightly to 3,200 or so by 7:45 a.m.  That might be a hint that the worst is behind us, fingers crossed!

REST OF TODAY

It was still raining pretty hard and steadily around Vermont as of 8 a.m. That will continue more or less for a few more hours. It looks like this morning's rain will be steadier and heavier in the southern half of the state, compared to the north. 

The rain statewide will tend to get a little more showery as we head toward late morning, and the bulk of the rain should be done by 4 p.m or so, if not earlier.   

The storm's cold front will blow through early this afternoon, changing any remaining rain to snow towards dusk.

But by then, we will have lost the deeper moisture, so we won't have much accumulation.  But by the evening commute, any water left over on the roads your driveway, your walkway will freeze, so it will continue to be dangerous underfoot.

Dustings of snow atop the ice will make it even more slick. The northern and central Green Mountains might pick up two or three inches of snow by tomorrow morning, so nothing spectacular.

Since it will be cold for the foreseeable future, you will need to be careful for the next several days, or even weeks, as the ice on untreated surfaces will remain. 

This will be a sharp return to frigid weather. Temperatures will be within a few degrees either side of 10 degrees by dawn Tuesday. Gusty winds will make it feel much colder. 

It looks like for at least the next week starting tomorrow, it will stay colder and drier than normal with only light snows. I'll get more into that in future posts, once we get past today's storm.  

Record Heat To End In Northeast and Canada, Though Despite Rain, Vermont/New England Drought To Continue

A person sunbathes amid record October heat Monday at
Sandbar State Park in Milton, Vermont on Lake Champlain
As you can see, the lake is incredibly low due to the
ongoing drought. 

Here in the Champlain Valley, we awoke this Tuesday morning to temperatures in the mid-60s, which is a little on the warm side for July, never mind October.  

True, the rest of Vermont was a little cooler than that, but we're still in bizarro world with the hot October weather. At least until tonight. 

On Monday, more record highs with this extreme heat wave hit Vermont, and many other areas of the Northeast and southeast Canada as well. 

We can confirm these records in Vermont:

84 in Burlington, besting the old record of 82 degrees

Montpelier reached 82 degrees, exceeding the old record of 79. 

St. Johnsbury reached 85, beating the old record by one degree. 

The core of the hottest air that was over our region and Quebec Sunday moved east a little, which is why much of Vermont was one or two degrees "cooler" than Sunday. The biggest record highs were in Atlantic Canada.

Now, four Canadian provinces have had all time record highs for October. The new record for Quebec was established Sunday with a temperature of 87.4 degrees in Gatineau. 

On Monday, Kouchbouguak, New Brunswick, reached 88 degrees to set a new provincial record for October. Prince Edward Island did the same, with a high of 83.7 degrees at Stanhope. Nova Scotia set a new October record with a reading of 87 degrees in Upper Stewiacke.

All-time October record highs were also set in several Maine cities, including 87 degrees in Fryburg, 86 in Augusta, 84 in Houlton and Presque Isle and 83 in Caribou. 

This has been an incredible heat wave for North America, as more than 2,000 cities and towns have set new record highs in the past six days. Some more records could well fall today in New England and far southeastern Canada.

VERMONT TODAY/TONIGHT

Things will start to change radically today here in the Green Mountain State to something more akin to normal. A long awaited cold front is about to slap us back into autumn. 

The first half today will bring more of the same. Temperatures will start to shoot up under sunny skies before noon. It could hit 80 degrees or a little more in Vermont before the clouds and rain arrive. 

I don't think we'll have record highs again today. The record highs for today are 83 in Burlington and Montpelier and 87 in St. Johnsbury. But, you never know, there could be surprises. 

Although the humidity is beginning to creep up ahead of the cold front, the winds are also increasing. Since things are so bone dry, the fire danger will be sky high today until the rain arrives,  The wind will make it worse, as the gusts would make blazes spread easily. 

That rain won't get here really until mid to late afternoon, so we have until then to worry about fires. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates the fire danger as high to very high today. 

The amount of rain that's coming still looks pretty good. It will actually come down hard at times tonight. Overall, most of us should get three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain, give or take, by tomorrow morning. 

That'll tamp down the fire risk for awhile, but not end the drought by any stretch of the imagination. 

COLD AIR BLASTS IN

It's going to feel awfully cold tomorrow into Friday after the cold front goes by.  Temperatures will actually not be at all weird for October over the coming days, but this will be traditional flannel and fleece October weather. 

It'll be party cloudy tomorrow, kind of windy from the north and chilly. Highs should stay in the 50s to low 60s, which is pretty close to normal. 

The cold air will keep coming in tomorrow night. Some low clouds might leave rime ice on the mountain tops for the first time this season. Don't be surprised if the tops of mountains like Camels Hump or Mount Mansfield look a little white. A harbinger of things to come. 

Some of us will also have near our below freezing temperatures to start Thursday. Thursday itself will be bright and chilly, a classic fall day. Sunshine will barely help make it feel warmer as highs just reach the 50s. 

Thursday night and Friday morning will be the coldest so far this season. If you have avoided a frost so far this autumn, chances are your luck will run out by dawn Friday. It looks like only areas right near Lake Champlain will escape the frost. 

Many places well inland will have a hard freeze with readings definitely its the 20s. 

After that, it will warm up to near normal temperatures Friday afternoon through the weekend. That means lows near 40, highs in the low to mid 60s.  After early tomorrow, I still don't see any signs of additional rain beyond sprinkles in Vermont at least until October 17 or so.  

Vermont Frost/Freeze Prospects Increasing For Friday, Saturday Nights

There's a good chance at least some of us will see
a frost or freeze in Vermont early Saturday morning
and again early Sunday morning. Not everyone
will get that cold. So far, the Champlain
Valley looks safe, but we'll update as 
information becomes available. 

On top of the droughts, we now have to worry about frosts and freezes.

Though I suppose on the bright side, a risk of a frost is very normal for this time of year in Vermont. 

For once, it's not another weird weather thing being plopped down our plate. 

I'll skip the drought news in this particular post. I want to wait until the latest U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later this morning, so watch this space for a big drought update before noon today.

FROST CHANCES

So, OK, let's get into the frost prospects. 

I'll start with a spoiler: Not everyone will see their growing seasons end this weekend. But the frost will be more widespread than anything we've seen yet this early autumn season 

Judging by how things will feel out there today, you wouldn't think a frost risk. It'll feel like the Good Old Summertime with highs in many warmer valleys topping 80 degrees. During droughts, the lack of moisture can make daytime highs warmer than they would be had it been wetter. 

Which means there's a chance that today's high temperatures could over-perform. I wouldn't be shocked if some warmer valley reach the mid-80s.  That would be just a couple degrees short of record highs for this time of year. 

Not only do droughts make hot days hotter, they can make cold nights colder. Moisture coming up from the ground can blunt falling temperatures through higher humidity and fog, especially this time of year. A lack of moisture can allow temperatures to fall further than they otherwise might on calm, clear nights. 

That might be the case this weekend. 

The trigger for the upcoming chilly nights is a cold front due to come through tonight.  As we've kept saying, the most we can expect out of the front is some scattered sprinkles and patches of drizzle overnight and early Friday. 

Tomorrow itself will really feel like autumn has arrived. Highs will stay in the 60s as skies clear during the day.  A brisk north breeze will add to the autumnal feel of a classic crisp fall day. Saturday will be like that, too.

The problem is the nights. With the low humidity, temperatures will crash Friday night. A light breeze might keep temperatures pretty uniform, but those temperatures will be cold. Scattered frost is possible almost anywhere in Vermont away from the Champlain Valley, as it looks now. 

Even away from Lake Champlain, not everyone will see a frost. If you're in a place that gets frosts while other nearby places don't, you'll probably get a frost Saturday morning. And Sunday morning. If you usually don't get an autumn frost when everybody else does, chances are you'll be safe. 

The coldest hollows will see a hard freeze. Saranac Lake, New York is forecasting lows as chilly as 26 degrees.

Frost and freeze advisories haven't been issued yet. The National Weather Service will do that when we get closer to the event.  But get ready to protect your plants. 

After a crisp, beautiful cool, autumnal Saturday, we'll have a similar frost/freeze situation overnight Saturday and early Sunday. 

After that, it'll warm right back up again. Highs Sunday through maybe next Wednesday should get into the 70s again in many places. 

I'll have an update on this frost situation tomorrow morning. 

Another Close Miss For Needed Vermont Rainfall. At Least We'll Get Some Though

NOAA rainfall map for the next seven days. 
In northwest New York and in Maine, the lighter
shades of blue indicate generally 0.75 to 1 inch
of rain. Vermont is in a gap (green shading)
with predictions of only at most a half inch
 of rain with less than a quarter inch south.

Meteorologists are still watching that strong cold front that's slowly approaching us in Vermont with its needed rainfall.  

And we'll get some. But the forecast is infuriating. For us in the Green Mountain State, anyway. 

The front is forecast to dump up to an inch of rain on northern and northwestern New York tonight and early Friday. 

Then the rainfall will weaken, giving us just a third of an inch of rain (give or take) north, and less than a quarter inch south.

Once the front gets past us, it will get its act together again and dump more than three quarters of an inch of rain in parts of Maine tomorrow. 

Yes, New York and Maine desperately need the rain, so this weather front will be nice. But what are we in Vermont? Chopped liver?  Don't answer that. 

We'll take any rain we can get, so the little bit we'll receive will put a smile on my face,  but come on!  The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later this morning, so we'll get an update on how things are trending in Vermont. My guess is not great.

I'l do an update post once we have that new Drought Monitor information later today.  

CHILLY

Cool weather is the other story. It got chillier than expected around much of Vermont early this morning, another sign that autumn is making inroads.

Readings bottomed out at 39 degrees at both Montpelier, and especially surprising, Bennington.  I wouldn't be surprised if some cold hollows made it into the mid-30s. 

South winds in the Champlain Valley kept temperatures there in the low 50s. It'll be briefly warmer today ahead of the front, but not exactly hot. Most of us will get into the 70s, with some upper 70s in warmer valleys. That's maybe around normal for this time of year. 

You'll probably need your hoodie both Friday and Saturday, which will decidedly not be classic Labor  Day weekend beach days. The bulk of whatever showers we get will lurk around Vermont Friday, and that will hold temperatures in the 60s for most of us. 

Saturday will be a classic autumn in August day with breezes from the west,  partly to mostly cloudy skies, with some light, inconsequential showers around.  

Sunday will bring more sun, though it won't necessarily be crystal clear out there.  The chances of showers diminish, but sprinkles are still possible over the northern mountains. The pick of the Labor Day weekend is Monday. It'll start cool, but under sunshine, temperatures should manage to get well into the 70s. Maybe even 80 degrees in the warmest, sunniest valleys. 

The drought will certainly continue. Most of next week looks dry and warm, with low humidity. Our next shot at any rain after tomorrow's cold front will be next Thursday night or Friday. It's still too soon to say whether that late week rain will amount to much.

Will It Actually Rain Sunday/Monday In Vermont? Some Hope, But....

Vermont lilac trees and bushes have had a rough time this
year. Early season wetness allowed a fungus to take hold
in the leaves. Then the drought hit. The fungus, 
combined with the dryness is making lilac leaves 
turn brown and fall off prematurely, like on this
lilac in my St. Albans, Vermont yard. The affected
lilacbushes should come back and bloom
just fine next spring.  

At least the weather is nice. Even as our gardens, crops and even trees shrivel up from lack of rain. 

We had another gorgeous day in Vermont Thursday and another perfect late summer day has gotten underway this morning.  

We can actually partly credit Hurricane Erin for the fantastic weather. 

Erin is racing away from the East Coast after causing flooding and scary waves along the shoreline. The atmosphere always tries to balance itself. 

When there's a hurricane off the East Coast with its low pressure, there's often high pressure off to its west, southwest or northwest to compensate. 

This happens with almost every hurricane or tropical storm.   Long time Vermonters might remember the day after Hurricane Irene in 20111 devastated the state with some of the worst flooding in our history. The day after the flood was absolutely gorgeous as the remnants of Irene took off to the Northeast. 

The same thing sort of thing is going on today with Erin far offshore.  Our compensating high pressure is basically right overhead today. This time, of course, we didn't have to endure anything worse than deepening drought after Hurricane Erin passed by far, far to our southeast. 

That high pressure hanging around today, so we have another great one with sunshine and low humidity.  It will be a little warmer than yesterday with many of us getting into the low 80s. 

It'll be even warmer Saturday as it gets into the 80s.  Which will be one last summer day, at least for awhile.

The fire danger is high in Vermont today, and could get even worse tomorrow. That's because the humidity will stay low, and breezes will pick up, especially in the Champlain Valley.   The wind could fan any flames that start in the dry woods and fields around Vermont.

So be careful out there! 

TINY BIT OF DROUGHT RELIEF?

Those breezes on Saturday are the first sign that we might actually get some rain here in Vermont.  The wind will be generated by an approaching cold front and its band of showers.

Don't get too excited, as I highly doubt whatever we end up getting will end our building drought. But it might  briefly stop it from getting worse. At least this cold front will probably drop some rain. 

Meteorologists still think a fairly slow moving cold front will come through Monday, with plenty of showers along and ahead of it later Sunday through Monday. At least that's the hope. 

I'm not wowed by the amount of rain forecast. The National Weather Service this morning is giving us a 50/50 shot at getting about a half inch of rain.   Since showers and thunderstorms will be involved, some areas will get bonus downpours with over an inch of rain, while other unlucky places get very little. 

That kind of rainfall would mean you won't have to water your garden for a couple days, and will extend a lifeline to some parched crops across Vermont and the rest of northern New England. 

After that, it's back to mostly dry weather for quite awhile. Starting next Tuesday,  we'll get into a long period of airflow from the northwest.  That means only light showers from time to time as moisture-starved disturbance zip on through from dry central Canada. It'll stay on the cool side, too.

There are some uncertain signs that a strong ridge of high pressure will set up camp over the northeastern U.S. and southeast Canada as we get into early September.

If that happens, it won't help the situation. It will just get warmer, but the high pressure would deflect any wet storms away from us.  The drought would live on under this scenario,

The bottom line: The expected rain later Sunday and Monday would just be a brief interruption to a worsening drought.  Almost makes you wish a tropical storm would come through and really wet us down.  But, I guess we have to be careful about what we wish for. 

Big Weather Changes To Hit Vermont Today As "Pre-Autumn" Arrives

Despite my watering efforts, this summer's heat and 
drought has taken a toll on garden plants like 
hostas, like this small one here. It's about to turn
much cooler, but unfortunately, we're not
going to get all that much rain. 

It got toasty again Saturday in our hot Vermont summer of '25, but be prepared today for a real shock to the system.  

More on that in a minute, but let's take a look back at our warm Saturday. 

Though most places in Vermont stayed in the 80s, Burlington made it to 90 degrees again Saturday, the 17th time it got that warm in Burlington. That puts 2025 in a five-way tie for 5th most 90s in a single season. The most was 26 in 1949, so we won't break that record. 

A major shift in the weather pattern means chances are pretty good - but not definite - that we might have seen our last 90 degree day of 2025.

PRE-AUTUMN STARTS TODAY

You're really going to notice the cold front that will come through today. Unfortunately, the big event won't be because of a lot of rain, but instead, plunging temperatures. 

I'll call it pre-autumn, and it's arriving more or less on schedule for the Green Mountain State. It traditionally hits sometimes in the second half of August and is a spell of cool weather that truly feels like fall. 

In recent years, we haven't really had that late August cool spell quite as much. Thanks, climate change!  But this year, I guess we're having an old school type late summer. This doesn't mean summer weather is over, but this cold front is just a shot across the bow warning us that fall is coming 

Today

The cold front, which was poised in southern Quebec this morning doesn't have all that much moisture to work with. It hasn't really gotten humid ahead of it, so there's not a lot of water in the air to work with. Plus, this thing will be moving fast, so rain won't last all that long. 

So, we'll maybe see a tenth to as much as a third of an inch of rain. Not enough to make a big dent in the brittle dryness we've been seeing. 

High temperatures today in Vermont will range widely, from the mid 70s northwest to upper 80s southeast.  The front will reach the northwest first, which is why it will be cooler up there. 

I'm burying the headline a little but it will get noticeably colder this afternoon and evening. If you're going to be out and about today, bring a hoodie or jacket and maybe some long pants. It might start warm, but it will be cold by mid to late afternoon. Especially north. 

North of Route 2, temperatures this afternoon could drop into the upper 50s, making it the first "autumn" day of the season. Further south, it'll go into the low and mid 60s, though southern Vermont will probably go from the 80s most of the day to the low 70s late afternoon or evening. 

Be careful out on Lake Champlain, too. The wind will abruptly shift from south to north and get gusty. Amid those falling temperatures, you'll get those showers, cold winds and waves could reach to three to five feet out on the broad lake. 

Stays Cool

Most of us in Vermont will start Monday with temperatures in the 40s. Maybe near 50 close to Lake Champlain. Sunshine will get us up into the 68 to 77 degree range Monday. Cool for mid-August, but not as nippy as late this afternoon in northern Vermont.   

The cool air will stick around for a few days. After another cool night, highs on Tuesday will get well into the 70s in many places as sunshine begins to fade behind some clouds. Those highs are still a touch below normal but not far off.

Wednesday could be quite cool under clouds and showers. A lot of us won't get out of the 60s for highs. Very September-like. 

Showers? Did someone say showers? I sure did, but again, unfortunately whatever comes through Wednesday will be no drought buster. But we'll take anything for rain, so midweek might be an unexpected mini-blessing.

Unexpected because previous forecasts indicated little if any rain this week. But now it looks like, or we hope a weak disturbance could draw in enough moisture to maybe give us a quarter inch of rain, give or take. Meteorologists will refine the expected rainfall when we get closer to the event. 

It looks like the end of the week and beginning of the weekend will warm back up to summer levels (highs in the low 80s) but that probably won't last. This new weather pattern seems destined to bring in more chilly air the following week.

It's also too soon to get into details, but the upcoming pattern seems to unfortunately favor a lot of sun and not much rain. Sure, everybody loves a sunny day, but we also are getting more desperate for some super soaker storms. 

That doesn't look like it's in the cards for awhile.  

Friday Was The Ultimate Perfect Vermont Summer Day. Now, Big Changes Are Afoot

What a day Friday was in Vermont! Deep blue skies,
hills glowing green in the sun. It was the pick of
the summer. But changes are afoot, and we
have some pre-autumn type weather heading
our way after a very warm Saturday. 

 Yes, we desperate need the rain, but you have to admit, Friday's weather was perfect. 

Maybe the pick of the summer.  

The temperature/humidity combo was spot on. Most of us got into the low 80s during the afternoon, so it was a good beach day. It was also superb for any other activity.   The humidity was rock bottom low, so exerting yourself with a hike or a spin on the bike didn't kill you. 

For once, there was no wildlife smoke in the air, so the sky was that deep, deep blue that soothes the soul.  It's rare to have a cloudless sky like this in August. Usually, there might be at least a few puffy clouds out there. 

Likewise, the Green Mountains glowed a deep green for a change, instead of being half or fully obscured by haze and smoke. f your hike took to the mountain summits you could see practically forever. 

If you were on the lake, it was also stupendous, though maybe winds were a bit light for the sailboats.

In other words, Friday was the reason we live in Vermont. 

TODAY

We've left the perfection zone, but if you enjoy summer, you've at least got today to enjoy. Beyond that, we'll see. 

Last night was pretty comfortable for sleeping, as we all started the day with temperatures in the 50s. You'll  notice it heating up pretty quickly this morning. All of us will get well into the 80s, with a few warmer valleys hitting 90 one more time.  There should be plenty of sun today, though a few clouds might come in during the afternoon. 

SUNDAY

This will be our big transition day into what I might call pre-fall, or as I explained the other day, Fair Weather, the kind of not really warm, not really chilly days we have in late August when county fairs are around. 

The cold front will be a little  more like  the kind you see in the autumn, not summer. Summertime cold front come through in pieces, little boundaries with progressively, and slightly cooler and less humid air and a gradual wind shift over many hours.  

Autumn and winter cold fronts come through in one fell swoop. Although Sunday's front won't be "clean" like that - it will still be a bit diffuse - the  push of colder air will be abrupt and noticeable. 

Temperatures will probably actually fall during Sunday afternoon, depending on the timing of the cold front. By evening, you might be reaching for a hoodie or sweater. 

I'm still really unimpressed with the amount of rain that will accompany the cold front. Current forecasts have us getting maybe a tenth of an inch, with a few lucky spots maybe seeing a quarter inch. 

By Monday morning, temperatures  should be down in the 40s, with highs only reaching about 70 by afternoon. 

The cool weather continues most of the week, but it should start to warm up temporarily toward the end of the week. 

If you are reaching for hopes of rain, there might be something coming through Tuesday night and Wednesday, but don't count on it. 

A few forecast models dump an inch of rain on us, which would be great, but those models are in the minority.  Most of them give us just a little rain, and some of them nothing at all.  Stay tuned on that, but for now, I'm leaning toward mostly dry weather and sadly, a worsening drought. 

Since I'm an eternal pessimist, don't count on me being right, though.