Stormy Vermont Weather Today To Bring Risk Of Damaging Winds, Local Flash Floods

Areas in yellow have the highest chance of 
seeing at least scattered severe thunderstorms
today. You see Vermont is included. 

 Yesterday was as perfect a summer day you can get in Vermont. The skies were blue and flecked with a few pretty puffy clouds. There was no haze, so the Green Mountains glimmered in their proper color. The air was quite warm, the humidity was gone, and a light breeze made it all feel perfect.  

Today, not so much. 

That strong cold front we've been talking about is threatening us with some really bad weather today. For most of us, it will be merely unpleasant, loud and at times dramatic. For a small minority of us, it could actually be dangerous. 

The two threats today are severe thunderstorms and local flash flooding. There is already a flood watch in effect for the northern half of Vermont today into early Monday. 

Who gets slammed with the worst weather today is mostly the luck of the draw. It depends on where the worst storms set up, and where the heaviest downpours fall.

But it's not entirely a guessing game. We do have a broad idea what will happen. But thunderstorms develop pretty quickly, so the exact spot that gets in trouble becomes clear often only minutes before the actual trouble arrives.  

This is the kind of day that you'll maybe want to rethink outdoor plans like hiking in the mountains or boating across Lake Champlain or a picnic on that gorgeous meadow,. 

You'll also want a way to receive warnings from the National Weather Service. I do think a few severe thunderstorm warnings will go out today. And there might well be a flash floor warning or two, especially north. 

 Severe Storms 

Areas in green shading have a very low, but not zero
chance of seeing a tornado today. Note that 
includes northern Vermont. 

On Friday, we didn't have much in the way of severe thunderstorms because the upper winds weren't very strong. That's not the issue today. Those winds high above us will be strong this afternoon and evening, and they will change direction with height. Storms could bring those high winds down on us. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center early this morning updated their outlook. All of Vermont is in a slight risk zone of severe storms . That's a level two out of five risk level.  Actually a huge area is under that slight risk zone, from the western half of New England, as far west as Ohio, and all the way down the East Coast as far as northern Georgia. 

In all these areas, including Vermont, the biggest hazard  from this set up is strong, damaging straight line winds. 

However, in many areas under this risk zone, there's a risk of a brief tornado. That little twister risk includes Vermont north of Route 4 and northern New York, New Hampshire and Maine. 

The risk of a tornado is very, very low, but not zero. 

The best chance for severe storms is from about noon to 6 p.m. north, possibly lasting a little longer than that central and south. 

Flash Flooding

Weather radar at 10 a.m. showed areas of heavy rain
already starting to move toward far northern Vermont.
Repeated rounds of storms and downpours today 
and tonight could lead to some flash flooding, 

Don't let  today's early morning low humidity fool you, a big surge of moisture is coming in, an is about to interact with that slow moving cold front coming at us from the northwest. 

This will be like the thunderstorm risk: Most places won't have a flood, but there's at least a chance some places will, Especially north of Route 2, and most especially near the Canadian border. 

One area of rain, with a few embedded downpours, seemed to be moving into far northern Vermont as of 9:30 a.m. which could be the start of the soaking up there. 

Waves of thunderstorms and torrential showers should sweep across Vermont today and the first half of tonight, and that's especially true in the north. 

Some areas in northern parts of the sate could see more than 2.5 inches of rain out of this, though most places there will get a little over an inch. 

Individual showers and storms will be moving quite fast. That means just one or two storms moving over the same area won't linger long enough to produce flooding rains. But today,   numerous storms look like they will follow the same path, possibly dumping way too much water for brooks, creeks, ditches and culverts to handle. 

It looks like the latest data supports the idea of a flood risk. Early this morning, northern Maine was under a flood watch. By 8:43, a flood watch went up for northern New Hampshire. Then, at 9:23 a.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued that flood watch for northern Vermont. 

Bottom line: Today is one of those annoying days where we'll be dodging bad and sometimes dangerous weather. Unfortunately, a very few of us might be picked by Ma Nature to end up picking up pieces and filing insurance claims. 

Not just here, but up and down the East Coast. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The good news, I suppose, is that this cold front will usher in some delightful weather tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Highs both days will be in the 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Another strong storm for this time of year possibly looms for this Thursday, but let's worry about today and get to that one later.