"Kelvin Wave" The Latest Meteorological Buzz Word: What To Worry About. Spoiler: Very Little For Most Of Us

A schematic showing how a Kevin waves work. In this
case it's a bulge of warm water and and a temporary
sea level rise of at least six inches rise that can 
exacerbate coastal flooding. 

Polar Vortex. Heat Dome. El Nino. Bomb Cyclone.

Lots of weather buzz words have come up in recent years. The terms have become bogeymen in social media, becoming monsters lurking to kill us all at the right moment. Even if all to these aren't exactly the end of the world. 

Now we have another one. Kelvin waves. 

Before we get into it, I'll be honest. A Kelvin wave along the West Coast won't affect you much at all, unless you live or work right along the ocean front.  

Kelvin waves are huge slow-moving pulses of warm subsurface ocean water that travel along the equator until they smack against a coastline.

They form when trade winds slow down or stop. This Kelvin wave in the Pacific is reinforcing the current record breaking El Nino. It moved westward across the Pacific before smacking into the west coast of South America. 

From there, the Kelvin waves moved both north and south. One batch moved southward along the South American coast. The other went north along the Mexican coast and the on to the U.S. West Coast.

The Kelvin wave has moved as far north as around San Francisco so far.  

Kelvin waves are not something anyone can see. They're just a subtle, huge ridge in the water. 

The Associated Press explains further: 

"Kelvin waves are not like tsunamis, and they don't curl over and crash on the beach. A better image is water sloshing in the bathtub or a swimming pool during an earthquake.

In the ocean, they are bulges of water that lift the sea level as they move along the coast. They're common during El Nino event, but this year's El Nino could intensify the impacts, experts say."

The six inch to foot tall surge is moving north along the California coast and will eventually raise water levels somewhat in Oregon and Washington, too.The Kelvin wave now hitting the West Coast has the potential for worsening coastal flooding, There's no real storm this week along the California coast, but there's been some swells from distant hurricanes. 

Last month, while the Kelvin wave was building, , elevated sea levels and waves from offshore Hurricane Marie caused destructive waves along the southern California coast, especially around Long Beach. 

There's nothing especially damaging going on now. So this particular Kelvin wave isn't likely to cause an enormous amount of damage. 

But the risk isn't over.

The current Kelvin wave is the first of what will probably be several such waves between now and about next February. El Ninos typically produce five or six of these, and the one ongoing now is only the first. 

Even before any Kelvin waves hit, the sea level is already elevated due to climate change. The risk is when new Kelvin waves hit when high astronomical "King Tides." and strong storms hit at the same time. 

That kind of triple attack would cause a ton of damage along the California coast.

King Tides are expected on November 24-26, December 23-25 and January 21-22.  

El Ninos have historically unleashed a series of severe storms onto the California coast.  Imagine if, say, over the Christmas holiday, there is a Kelvin wave, a King Tide and a severe storm all hitting at the same time. 

That's what keeps emergency managers up at night. 

El Nino is looming. There's no guarantee California will succumb to severe storms, high, damaging tides and battering waves.  But it's definitely something to prepare for.  

Flash Flood Risk Growing In Vermont, And Rest Of The Northeast

A strong thunderstorm seen here approaching St. Albans,.
Vermont from the southeast, instead of the west like
we'd usually see from storms. This storm was part of 
an opening salvo of storms that is bringing a 
flood threat to southern Vermont through tomorrow 

 I was afraid this would happen. 

The flash flood risk is growing notably in parts of Vermont, and a large chunk of the Northeast. 

A flood watch is now in effect for central and southern Vermont. The areas under the watch can expect one to three inches of rain through tomorrow evening. That doesn't sound so bad, until you consider there could well be some streaks of three to five inch amounts in that zone. 

The flood risk has already started.

If you're in the southern half of Vermont - especially if you're in or near the Green Mountains, prepare for local areas of flash flooding anytime between now and during the day tomorrow. 

This weather setup reminds me a little of the way things arranged themselves for the big July flood of 2023,  That said, I don't want to give you a flareup of PTSD.  This weather pattern IS NOT as intense or as capable of producing widespread like it did in July, 2023,  But I expect at least some pockets of flood damage in the Green Mountain State. 

THE UPDATE

All this is based on weather data that came in late this morning and early afternoon. That data doesn't exactly paint a pretty picture. Rainfall will be heavier in many areas than we thought early this morning. 

 Early this afternoon, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center extended a moderate risk of flash flooding between now and tomorrow morning through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and southwestern New England into far southern Vermont. 

A moderate risk, level three out of four, almost guarantees at least some flash flooding. A thick moisture feed combining with the instability brought on by a pesky upper level low over the Northeast could produce as much as five inches of rain within six hours in some local areas within the moderate risk area. 

The slight risk of flash flooding, level 2 out of 4 risk level, now extends north almost to Route 2. There's a good chance of some instance of local flooding in central Vermont between now and tomorrow night, especially along the east slopes of the Green Mountains. 

A marginal risk, one out of four covers far northern Vermont for the chance of very isolated flooding. 

Thunderstorms blossomed rapidly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains early this afternoon. The last one to develop seemed to come out of almost nowhere in Franklin County in the mid-afternoon and it was strong enough to carry a severe thunderstorm warning. It also came from an unusual direction - from the southeast rather than the west they way storms usually do.

That motion is a clue that we're getting a lot of moisture off the Atlantic Ocean for the atmosphere to play with. 

The storms were moving right along at a brisk pace, so any one storm wouldn't drop much rain in a particular place. The trouble will come if and where multiple stores move over the same place over and over again.

I have noticed that downpours in far southern Vermont have been looking pretty persistent this afternoon, but so far, as of 4 p.m., there were not flood alerts in effect. But this is the place to watch through this evening, as these storms will feature the heaviest rain of this whole three-day rainy event.  

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

The developing area of low pressure heading toward New York and southern New England will set up a sort of fire hose of moisture moving southeast to northwest from southern New England through southern Vermont, then weakening as it moves further north into upper Vermont and the Adirondack. 

This set up will really soak the summits and eastern slopes of the southern and maybe central Green Mountains, That will keep the flood risk going through most of tomorrow. The rain might not be as heavy as the locally torrential downpours today, but the rain could easily be strong enough to keep the flood risk going, 

The flood risk will diminish as you go north toward the Canadian border

For now, storm totals look like they'll run three to five inches in far southern Vermont, with local amounts as high as six or seven inches especially in the mountains. So you can see why this weather system is risky. 

The central Green Mountains look to have one to three inches, with perhaps locally higher amounts.  Northwest Vermont should get maybe three quarters on an inch, give or take, again with locally higher amounts. 

The Northeast Kingdom will largely miss out, as forecasts stand now. Some places up there might receive only a quarter inch of rain. 

Meanwhile, most of southern New England is under a flood alert through tomorrow, 

CAVEATS/WHAT TO DO

As always, things could change one way or another overnight. Heavy storms like this can shift the heaviest rain a few miles in unexpected directions, which could affect who gets the worst of flooding, if any. 

So, if you live in southern Vermont, be ready for at least some localized flash floods. Much of this could happen after dark, and it's hard to see washouts and flooding ahead when you're driving at night. 

If you live in a flood prone area, especially where water can rush off of steep slopes, have a to-go bag ready, just in case. You might have to leave at the drop of a hat.  

Again, not everyone in southern Vermont will have a flash flood. But it's a big enough threat to stay on your toes through tomorrow. 

We've already had a few instances of flash flooding this summer in Vermont. Looks like this will be another. In our climate changed world, this kind of thing has become more likely than it was a few decades ago

 

Evening Vermont Storm Update: Despite Smoke, Dangerous Storms, Tornadoes Risk Continues Now Through Pre-dawn Hours

Satellite photo this evening. Still a lot of wildfire 
smoke over and near Vermont. That might or might
not interfere with storm develop. Some are 
developing. White splotches over extreme 
northeast Vermont, northern New Hampshire
and part of Maine were strong storms as of 6 p.mm
Other storms firing east of Montreal, A nasty clump
of storms well north of Ottawa in the upper left
of the photo are heading in our general direction
and could be severe for us if they hold together 

 Wildfire smoke is still making our storm forecast more difficult than it otherwise would be, but signs continue to point toward severe weather. 

For much of the day, it looked like western Maine would suffer the worst of this outbreak.  But it hasn't warmed up as much ax forecast in the main Maine risk zone, so to speak. At 4 p.m., Rangeley, Maine was only 73 degrees. 

Temperatures in the 80s would have helped make storms more powerful. Maine might still get nailed, but the lower temperatures raise questions about the severe threat there. 

Here in Vermont, it's also a bit cooler than forecast, but still much warmer than northwestern Maine. As of 5 p.m., it was well into the 80s, with a couple spots close to 90 degrees. The dew point had risen to near 70 across the state. 

Those are super juicy conditions for storms. 

The winds are also veering with height, and are pretty strong higher up.  Here down on the ground, winds are from the southwest. Higher up, the winds are westerly. Go up even further to jet stream level, the winds are northwesterly. 

That's a great set up for severe weather. 

With all these ingredients for storms, we  just need the trigger. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington said that so far, the smoke has tamped down attempts at thunderstorms. But the approaching cold front, and a so-called pre-frontal trough ahead of it, would overcome the smoke and fire up some storms. 

At least that's what the thinking was as of late this afternoon.

At this point, as of nearly 6 p.m., it's still unclear whether this will develop into the nasty severe outbreak that has been forecasted since yesterday, or a total forecast bust/false alarm, or somewhere in between.

There were storms starting to fire in southern and central Quebec. There was a nasty batch of storms well north of Ottawa. We'll see if they hold together, as they were heading in our general direction. 

I'd keep planning on a severe outbreak if I were you. The ingredients are still all there. We're just waiting for the proper triggers. Even if those triggers never fire, what have you lost by bracing yourself for the possibility of nasty storms. 

As of 6 p.m., meteorologists much smarter than me were still insisting the triggers will fire tonight. In a Facebook post, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said confidence in severe weather tonight "continues to increase"

 The NWS also said the wildfire smoke would have little, if any effect on the storms. It's just a matter of how well the atmosphere triggers work tonight. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is more nuanced for this evenings outlook. Wildfire smoke and a general cloudiness might be inhibiting storms. As of 7 p.m., they were still on the fence on whether to issue a severe storm watch. 

Still, if storms can overcome these factors, severe storms will erupt.

We've still got the risk of destructive straight line winds, maybe a a couple of tornadoes. Somewhere in northern New England, a tornado might turn out to be strong. There's also the risk of large hail, local flash floods and continuous lightning. 

Not everybody will see those dire weather conditions. But a few places might. From now until about 3 a.m., you'll need a way to receive storm or tornado warnings, just in case. Don't put your phone on do not disturb. 

It's also important to note it's impossible to tell who will receive a severe storm and who will avoid them in advance. We won't know until just before the storms hit. 

READING THE TEA LEAVES

Like every meteorologist and weather geek around, I've been constantly looking at satellite images and weather radar, and other data to see what's going on. 

Things change fast with these severe weather episodes, but here's a snapshot at what we see shortly before 6 p.m. 

A patch of clouds over northern Vermont late this afternoon was preventing storms from firing up.  It was expected that we wouldn't see much of anything during the afternoon, so this part was expected. 

It had gotten interesting just north of the border, though. Just north of the border was a narrow line of roiling clouds, some of which were developing into thunderstorms. A 

 At 5:19 p.m. today, one storm on that line prompted the first severe thunderstorm warning of the day, covering the extreme northeast tip of Vermont. Other thunderstorms were trying to develop further west along that line of clouds, but they were struggling. 

There's sort of a temperature boundary between the relatively cool air in northwest Maine and the warmer, more humid air in Vermont. So I'm suspecting the Northeast Kingdom will see thunderstorms start fairly early this evening, as thunderstorms like to form along boundaries. 

Speaking of boundaries, there's a pre-frontal trough south of the main cold front. Pre-frontal troughs are common in severe weather outbreak. They are a line of disturbed weather usually a few dozen miles ahead of the actual cold front. 

The pre-frontal trough was encouraging thunderstorms far to the northwest of Montreal. They're embedded in wildfire smoke, so we're unsure if the smoke will interfere with further development or not. 

In any event, the main show happens after 8 a.m. and continues to around 2 or 3 in the morning. If the forecast is correct, waves of storms will move down from Quebec into northeast New York, northern Vermont, northen New Hampshire and northwest Maine. 

Again, if the storms develop, they'll be a mix of supercells and short lines of intense storms Those supercells are the prime suspects for forming a couple tornadoes tonight. Very few people will actually be affected by any tornadoes. But still, oe or two of them could still be strong.

The bigger danger is still straight line winds. The worst storms could have wind gusts of over 75 mph. If one of those comes through where you live, you'll see a lot of damage. 

This isn't to say everybody gets severe weather. Some of the storms will indeed be severe, even intense. Other areas in the higher risks zones will wake up tomorrow morning wondering what all the fuss was about. 

The storms should still weaken as they head toward southern Vermont after midnight. 

WHAT TO DO

The first and most important thing to do is have at least one way to receive severe storm warnings all night. Fully charge your phone, leave it on your nightstand and have it set to blare if a severe storm or tornado warning goes up for your area.

You'll need to act fast if you get a warning, especially if it's  a tornado warning. Have sturdy shoes next to your bed that you can slip on quickly. Also a flash light or better yet  a head lamp so your hands will be free. 

Make sure you're able to scoop up any pets on the way to the basement. 

Some of the severe thunderstorms, if they develop, might have winds equivalent to a tornado so head to the basement even if it's a severe storm warning instead of a tornado warning. If you don't have a basement go into a small interior windowless space like a bathroom or closet. Put as many walls between you and the outside that you can. 

If you're still camping, get out of the woods now if not sooner. Any forested area will be really dangerous if an intense storm or tornado comes along. 

Before the storms arrive, secure outdoor furniture and plants early this evening before the storms arrive. I'll be doing that as soon as I finish this post. 

Above all, don't work yourself up over this. It is a bigger severe threat than we're used to in northern New England. But for most of us, the worst we'll endure ia a noisy night with lightning, loud thunder, gusty winds and torrential rains in may spots. 

An unlucky minority of us in the North Country unfortunately face real danger and likely property damage if the storms develop as meteorologists were anticipating as of 6 p.m. 

Just take your precautions this evening and stay weather aware overnight 

Tuesday Morning Update: Big Severe Storm, Tornado Threat Still Looms In Northern New England, With Wildcards

The areas under the gun for severe weather look
unchanged since yesterday. The latest NOAA
Storm Prediction, issued at 8:30 this morning,
still shows an enhanced, level three out of five
risk of severe storms and possible tornadoes
the evening across northern New England
Orange area is at highest risk

 Dawn broke early this Tuesday morning in a way that did not suggest super hot temperatures and an oddly intense severe storm outbreak was on the way. The sky was overcast with wildfire smoke making yet another appearance early today. 

That suggests a drab but peaceful day would be in the works. "

But nope! The weather forecast that we saw yesterday is basically unchanged from the one we had yesterday.  

A hot day looms, and worse, we're still on track for severe thunderstorms and possibly a tornado or two this evening and overnight. Mostly in northern Vermont. 

The clouds are from a large but dying cluster of thunderstorms up in Quebec.  Those clouds will dissipate and move east and out of our hair later this morning. 

One storm in Quebec, a little north Sherbrooke, looked intense as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together, could spew some large hail on the extreme northeast corner of Vermont and on far northern New Hampshire later this morning.  

Other than that, very likely we'll see no storms until the main show this evening. 

The wildfire smoke will linger all day and into the night. We hate wildfire smoke for obvious reasons, damage to our health being one of them. But there's a chance the smoke could do us some favors in terms of how hot it will get today and how severe the storms will get tonight. 

Don't count on that though. It's still going to be hot today, and the risk of intense thunderstorms is still high for at least some of us. 

I'm going to bury the lede and talk about the heat first, then the storms. There's a lot here, so bear with me. 

TODAY"S HEAT

As noted, the smoke is a bit of a wildcard. It's looking pretty thick on satellite images. Enough to block some of the sun's heat  and possibly make it a little cooler than forecast. For instance, the National Weather Service is going for a high of 97 degrees in Burlington today. 

That might well happen, though the smoke could hold temperatures down into the low 90s if it stays thick enough. It'll still be hot and humid, of course. And the smoke in the air will make things worse for people with health problems. The heat and the smoke will team up for a one, two punch for Vermonters whose lungs and cardiovascular systems have already been battered by illness. 

Take it easy all day.

THE STORMS

As a foreshadow to this evening, weather radar picked
up an intense storm just north of Sherbrooke,
Quebec as of 9 a.m. That storm, if it holds together
could dump large hail on the extreme northeast corner
of Vermont and far northern New Hampshire.
Otherwise, the severe weather should hold
off until this evening. 

This is probably what you came here to see updates. The wildfire smoke adds a wildcard to this forecast, too. I'll get into that in a bit. 

The overall scenario is pretty much the same as I described in yesterday's post. Ahead of a cold front, big thunderstorms will erupt in southern Canada and southern Ontario Ontario. Those regions are in for some powerful thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes. One or two of which might be quite strong.  

Environment Canada already has a severe thunderstorm watch in effect for these areas.

Late this afternoon, those will start heading south and begin to cross the border into the United States sometime after 7 p.m.  

The big threat hours across northern Vermont, along with far northern New York, northern New Hampshire and interior Maine are roughly between 8 p.m. and midnight. 

Those areas are under the Storm Prediction Center's enhanced risk for severe storms, a level three out of five alert level. 

Areas just south of that band are at risk of severe storms and tornadoes, too, but the risk isn't quite as high. I would say places south of Route 4 in Vermont are pretty safe from severe weather tonight, though there might still be some pretty strong storms near Rutland or White River Junction toward midnight or a little after. 

The reason for this north to south gradient in risk is timing. The potential intense storms lumbering across the order will do so toward the end of the day. After sunset, conditions start to work against severe thunderstorms. 

They'll maintain their juice for a couple hours after sunset. Then, as they head south later tonight, the storms will begin to lose their steam and weaken. By the time they reach Massachusetts, the storms will pretty much have gone pfft. 

Wildfire Smoke

There is a chance that the thick wildfire smoke might help blunt the development of these storms. The smoke could make the storms weaker than they otherwise would be. But don't count on it. Not at all. The atmospheric dynamics still look easily strong enough to overcome the effects of smoke.

Plus, how smoke affects severe storms is still poorly  understood. If you still see a lot of smoke in the atmosphere this evening, don't relax. We could still see some wild weather. I'm only mentioning the smoke as a slight glimmer of hope against the storms. I'm absolutely not promising anything here. 

The latest update on the situation from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, issued at 8:30 this morning has not backed off at all on their prediction of the severe threat. 

THE RISKS

Everything that you can possibly worry about in storms will be something to think about tonight. Here's what to look out for:

Wind

By far, the greatest risks from tonight storms are intense straight tine winds. As is always the case in severe weather outbreaks, many of us will miss out on the destructive winds. But some of us will see them, of course. 

The more intense storms could easily have gusts over 75 mph. You'll want to me on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away from windows if anything like that comes through. Fine with me if you hide in your basement in that kind of weather. It's the safest place. 

Most of the storms will come at us in clumps or relatively short lines. Lines of storms will team up to produce locally destructive winds. If you see a line on weather radar that's shaped like a backwards "C", looks out. The forward portion of that backwards "C" could well have intense winds.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center continues to note that supercell thunderstorms may well be in the mix, ,especially in the enhanced risk area. 

Tornadoes

The vast majority of us in the North County will not see a tornado. A few unlucky people could, however, endure a twister. 

NOAA has the enhanced risk of severe weather in a 5 percent zone for tornadoes. That means that if you're standing at any point in the 5 percent areas, there is at least a 5 percent chance, but less than a 10 percent chance that a tornado will hit with 25 miles of where you are. 

 This outbreak poses the risk of a stronger tornado.   An EF-2 tornado has winds of 111to 135 mph, so they are more destructive. EF-3s go rip to 165 mph. 

The greatest risk for intense tornadoes seems to be in Maine, but the risk of those strong twisters still extend across northern New Hampshire, Vermont and New York. And it might not be just the supercells capable of producing a tornado. There might be enough rotation in those lines of storms to produce a twister or two. 

 Vermont, and for that matter northern New York, New Hampshire and interior Maine almost always see tornadoes that area at EF-0 or EF-1 intensity with winds of 110 mph or less.

Stronger tornadoes in Vermont are exceedingly rare. As far as I could find, the last EF-2 in Vermont hit Colchester in 1983.  There was an EF-3 listed for Bennington County back in 1998, but I believe that twister was EF-3 in New York, but weakened to a EF-1 by the time it crossed the border into the Green Mountain State. 

Hail

Some supercells, if they develop, might contain large hail, maybe the size of hen's eggs or even a little bigger. THat's more than enough to trash cars, windows and siding on houses and buildings. 

Flash Floods

The risk of flash floods is pretty low, but definitely not zero. Rainfall with these storms will be intense, so an inch or two could come down within an hour in a few places. That's enough to set up some small steam and creek flooding, washouts along steep roads, that kind of thing. 

Lightning

These storms will probably put on quite a light show. There should be quite a bit of cloud to ground lighting, so it will be dangerous to be outside, even if it's not windy or hailing where you are.

WHAT TO DO

First of all, don't panic. This is definitely a more wild severe storm potential than we're used to in the North Country. But like all severe weather events, a few of us will be very unlucky and get nailed while the rest of us come out pretty much unscathed. 

Even in those enormous Midwest tornado outbreaks that mow down entire neighborhoods and villages, a small minority of the region's populace is victimized. 

But while you're not panicking, there's a few things you should do. If you're camping in the woods, either in a tent or RV, get out by late afternoon. Tents offer no protection from falling trees obviously. RV's also offer basically no protection, and they can be blown over and upside down in strong winds. 

That sort of thing happened in Lancaster, New Hampshire when a supercell hit that area. 

If it turns out your campsite was undamaged from tonight's storm, you can head back there tomorrow morning. 

For those of us who are not camping, secure the lawn and deck furniture, and the potted plants that might tip over. You might also want to park your car away from big trees. 

Power up your devices by evening, because if these storms develop, we'll have quite a few power outages. If you live in a remote, woodsy area, be ready with LED candles and non-perishable food.

A handful of places might be out of electricity for days. And remote roads could be blocked for some time by fallen trees.

A severe thunderstorm or tornado watch will likely be issued later today. If your area is under a watch, continue what you're doing, but have a weather radio or other reliable source near you to receive any upgrades to a warning. 

If you receive a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning, immediately head to the basement or an interior windowless room in your house. 

If you are in a vulnerable structure like an RV or mobile home and you eceive a tornado warning, wear a bicycle or motorcycle helmet if you have any. That will protect your head. Huddle under blankets and such in a small space like a bathroom or closet. 

There is no record of anybody ever dying from a tornado in Vermont. Let's keep it that way. 

After the storm, stay inside. It'll be dark out. You won't easily be able to see live power lines, sharp objects and other hazards. In a worse case scenario, if you have to leave your house due to damage, wear sturdy shoes

Rare Tornado Watch In Effect For Vermont/New York Today: High Winds, Then Severe Storms, Some Twisters Possible

UPDATE: 10:30 a.m.

Here's a weather map you don't see 
every day. The greatest chances of
tornadoes today, according to NOAA
are along the Gulf Coast and in 
Vermont (brown shading). 
Still, the risk of a twister is very low
and if severe storms develop today
the trouble would probably come
from intense straight line winds

A rare tornado watch is in effect for Vermont and much of New York.

The tornado watch remains in effect until 3 p.m. It actually covers all of Vermont and most of New York State.'

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, strong winds aloft caused by that intense winter like storm will increase the risk of intense winds with the storms, 

Because winds are changing direction in different levels of the atmosphere, some storms could start to rotate, which helps explain why there could be some brief tornadoes in New York or Vermont. 

Already, one tornado warning has been issued in western New York and there are a bunch of severe thunderstorm warnings out there. 

Another unusual thing is the timing. Most severe storm outbreaks peak in the late afternoon and evening, But this storm's cold front is coining earlier. 

And the atmospheric dynamics are so great that severe thunderstorms and even isolated tornadoes can develop in the late morning and early afternoon.

The main threat is strong straight line winds from the storms, by the way. The chances of a tornado are still low, but obviously there. 

Aside from the severe weather threat, winds are increasing in Vermont ahead of the storms as of 10 a.m so scattered  power outages are likely to develop over the next few hours. Even before any thunderstorms get here. 

Definitely be weather aware today and heed any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. There's a chance some of these storms might end up being more intense than our typical summer windbags, 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

So far, our storm is playing out as expected here in Vermont, but some surprises might still be in store.

Whatever happens, this will be one of Vermont's nastiest weather days of the summer. 

 A swath of rain, some of it moderate to heavy, was moving through the Green Mountain State as of 8:30 a.m.  Judging from weather radar, the steady rain will soon turn showery, with frequent downpours mixed with brief breaks. 

WIND

The showers will tend to diminish for a relatively brief period later this morning. That's when the wind will really kick in. 

The wind advisory for gusts to 40 to 55 mph is still in effect. It covers all of Vermont except the Connecticut River Valley south of roughly Wells River. 

We'll see some power outages blossom here and there as some trees give up the ghost with the onslaught of winds. 

As I keep saying, winds of that magnitude almost never happen in the summer. When we get this type of storm in the winter, when they're more common,  the wind passes pretty easily through bare branches so it's not as much of a problem. 

Leafed out trees are heavier, and the leaves act as little sails to tug at the trees. In many places, the soil has gotten pretty wet, making it easier to uproot trees when they tilt in the wind. 

This won't exactly be a huge destructive storm like a hurricane, but we'll lose a few trees and branches. 

Strongest winds still look like they'll hit the northern Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Lake Champlain should be pretty wild with two to four foot waves, maybe even a bit higher than that on the broad lake during the worst of the wind. 

STORMS

The thunderstorm outlook for this afternoon is still challenging. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 out of 5 alert - for severe storms today. 

And here's a new twist. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the two places in the nation with the highest chances of tornadoes today are parts of the Gulf Coast, and Vermont (along with eastern New York and western New Hampshire).

Granted, it's still a very low chance, but not quite as low as we usually see during severe storm risk days.  Usually, when I mention a very low risk of  tornado, it means a 2 percent chance of seeing a twister with 25 miles of your location.

This time, it's a 5 percent chance of seeing a tornado with 25 miles of your location. Those are still low odds, but not as low as it could be. 

The SPC says some low top rotating supercells could get going  in our atmosphere today. But the biggest threat is some storms grabbing some of the odd, high speed air flowing a few thousand feet overhead and bringing those winds to the surface in a few locations. 

If storms develop this afternoon, they'll move rapidly. Storm intensity will probably change quickly, one way or the other, as well. That means you'll get little or no advance warning when they approach.  If you see dark clouds to the west, it'll be best if you get inside a sturdy building quickly, even if there is no severe storm warning in effect at that moment. 

Severe storms in Vermont are NOT a foregone conclusion, however. Maybe the winds aloft could be actually too strong for big thunderstorms to develop. Especially since this morning's rain and a warm layer of air high up in the atmosphere might prevent tall thunderstorms clouds from forming. 

But I wouldn't relax about it. I know we didn't get the predicted severe weather this past Sunday. But this is a completely different weather setup than we had on Sunday, so the outcome on what might happen will also be completely different. 

If we don't get any severe storms, great! But be prepared, because a few towns - not all of us but a fe towns - could really get nailed with nasty, damaging thunderstorm winds. 

The severe storm threat should be over by this evening

FLOODING

Despite the bursts of heavy rain, I'm not too concerned about any flooding. Everything is just moving along too fast. Downpours won't linger over one area too long. Even if we get severe thunderstorms, they will produce torrential downpours that won't last long 

Still, there's a chance that a couple spots could get such a gully washer that a gravel road or two could see damage. The risk is quite low, but there. I notice there is a flood watch in northern New Hampshire. Strong winds hitting the White Mountains is causing the air flow to rise violently, which could set off some nasty downpours there. 

BEYOND TODAY

I won't get into much detail here, because we have our hands full with today. Tomorrow will actually be OK, with some sun, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers or maybe a garden variety thunderstorm. It'll still be quite breezy, but not downright windy like today. Highs will get well into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday look worse, with showers and garden variety thunderstorms  likely, especially north. It'll be cool, too, with highs Saturday in the 60s to low 70s and readings just a couple degrees higher Sunday. 

Valleys in southern Vermont will probably eek out some decent weather over the weekend with a lower chance of showers and more breaks of sun.

A risk of rain and showers will continue into next week, but temperatures will moderate to near normal late June levels by the middle of the week. We hope. 

Stormy Vermont Weather Today To Bring Risk Of Damaging Winds, Local Flash Floods

Areas in yellow have the highest chance of 
seeing at least scattered severe thunderstorms
today. You see Vermont is included. 

 Yesterday was as perfect a summer day you can get in Vermont. The skies were blue and flecked with a few pretty puffy clouds. There was no haze, so the Green Mountains glimmered in their proper color. The air was quite warm, the humidity was gone, and a light breeze made it all feel perfect.  

Today, not so much. 

That strong cold front we've been talking about is threatening us with some really bad weather today. For most of us, it will be merely unpleasant, loud and at times dramatic. For a small minority of us, it could actually be dangerous. 

The two threats today are severe thunderstorms and local flash flooding. There is already a flood watch in effect for the northern half of Vermont today into early Monday. 

Who gets slammed with the worst weather today is mostly the luck of the draw. It depends on where the worst storms set up, and where the heaviest downpours fall.

But it's not entirely a guessing game. We do have a broad idea what will happen. But thunderstorms develop pretty quickly, so the exact spot that gets in trouble becomes clear often only minutes before the actual trouble arrives.  

This is the kind of day that you'll maybe want to rethink outdoor plans like hiking in the mountains or boating across Lake Champlain or a picnic on that gorgeous meadow,. 

You'll also want a way to receive warnings from the National Weather Service. I do think a few severe thunderstorm warnings will go out today. And there might well be a flash floor warning or two, especially north. 

 Severe Storms 

Areas in green shading have a very low, but not zero
chance of seeing a tornado today. Note that 
includes northern Vermont. 

On Friday, we didn't have much in the way of severe thunderstorms because the upper winds weren't very strong. That's not the issue today. Those winds high above us will be strong this afternoon and evening, and they will change direction with height. Storms could bring those high winds down on us. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center early this morning updated their outlook. All of Vermont is in a slight risk zone of severe storms . That's a level two out of five risk level.  Actually a huge area is under that slight risk zone, from the western half of New England, as far west as Ohio, and all the way down the East Coast as far as northern Georgia. 

In all these areas, including Vermont, the biggest hazard  from this set up is strong, damaging straight line winds. 

However, in many areas under this risk zone, there's a risk of a brief tornado. That little twister risk includes Vermont north of Route 4 and northern New York, New Hampshire and Maine. 

The risk of a tornado is very, very low, but not zero. 

The best chance for severe storms is from about noon to 6 p.m. north, possibly lasting a little longer than that central and south. 

Flash Flooding

Weather radar at 10 a.m. showed areas of heavy rain
already starting to move toward far northern Vermont.
Repeated rounds of storms and downpours today 
and tonight could lead to some flash flooding, 

Don't let  today's early morning low humidity fool you, a big surge of moisture is coming in, an is about to interact with that slow moving cold front coming at us from the northwest. 

This will be like the thunderstorm risk: Most places won't have a flood, but there's at least a chance some places will, Especially north of Route 2, and most especially near the Canadian border. 

One area of rain, with a few embedded downpours, seemed to be moving into far northern Vermont as of 9:30 a.m. which could be the start of the soaking up there. 

Waves of thunderstorms and torrential showers should sweep across Vermont today and the first half of tonight, and that's especially true in the north. 

Some areas in northern parts of the sate could see more than 2.5 inches of rain out of this, though most places there will get a little over an inch. 

Individual showers and storms will be moving quite fast. That means just one or two storms moving over the same area won't linger long enough to produce flooding rains. But today,   numerous storms look like they will follow the same path, possibly dumping way too much water for brooks, creeks, ditches and culverts to handle. 

It looks like the latest data supports the idea of a flood risk. Early this morning, northern Maine was under a flood watch. By 8:43, a flood watch went up for northern New Hampshire. Then, at 9:23 a.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued that flood watch for northern Vermont. 

Bottom line: Today is one of those annoying days where we'll be dodging bad and sometimes dangerous weather. Unfortunately, a very few of us might be picked by Ma Nature to end up picking up pieces and filing insurance claims. 

Not just here, but up and down the East Coast. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The good news, I suppose, is that this cold front will usher in some delightful weather tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Highs both days will be in the 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Another strong storm for this time of year possibly looms for this Thursday, but let's worry about today and get to that one later. 

Showers, T-Storms, Few Severe Today In Vermont. Hot Times Ahead For Upcoming Week

Radar showed a batch of mostly light rain moving into 
the state this moving. That  should move out, followed by
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some could
be severe, especially south.  

 Editors Note: Posts might be irregular or short through at least Sunday as I'm traveling. I'll do my best!

OK, Now that my travel plans are out of the way: It's raining a little this morning in Vermont. Or at least parts of the state. 

Last week's weather has made things pretty parched, so we need it. It won't be a blockbuster rainfall for most of us, which is too bad. It won't make up for a dry week, a the upcoming week looks a bit arid, too. More on that in a bit. 

TODAY

The rain this morning is mostly a steady light rain moving in rapidly from New York State. It's zipping along, and should be pretty m much out of the state by early afternoon. Southern Vermont might only get a trace of rain out of this morning's little blip of rain. 

Then things get interesting. We could get some breaks of sun to roil the humid atmosphere a bit. Winds aloft will increase, and another disturbance ahead of a cold front will sweep in during the afternoon. 

The result is a risk of severe thunderstorms. They could happen anywhere in Vermont, but are most likely along and south of Route 4. A broad area from Indiana, Ohio, then through Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the southern half of New England is under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

That slight risk - a level 2 out of 5 alert level - includes southern Vermont.

Yellow area, including southern Vermont is under a 
level 2 out of 5 risk of severe storms today. Dark
green is level 1 out 5 risk. If there are severe
storms in Vermont today, the greatest danger
will be strong winds and lightning. 

That slight risk means there could be scattered instances of storm damage today. The risk is for strong gusty winds. There could be isolated instances of damaging hail, but that's less likely. 

 The rest of the state, along with northern New England and northern New York is under a marginal risk, alert level one out of 5. That means  a risk of isolated storm issues. 

It looks like the greatest risk of storms statewide is between 2 ad 8 p.m. today. You know the drill. 

If you have outdoor plans, keep an eye to the sky and have a way to receive severe storm warnings or other weather advisories. I'd also postpone that hike in the mountains to another day. 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY

The cold front will continue to approach as atmospheric ripples continue ahead of it. That means a continued  good chance of showers overnight tonight, with a few rumbles of thunder, too.

This state of affairs should continue Sunday as the cold front slips through. Most of the rain in the north will be in the morning and early afternoon. Southern Vermont has a better chance of  thunderstorms mixed in with rain and showers, but they don't look like they will be severe. 

It will be much cooler, but not cold, like last weekend. Highs should end up within a few degrees either side of 70.

Forecast total rainfall has increased a bit since yesterday. Because of the thunderstorms, rainfall will be super variable, with some communities not getting much at all, while two town over they have over an inch. 

But in general, now through Sunday, southern Vermont gets a half to a third of an inch of rain, while the northern half gets a half inch, give or take. 

All in all, a fairly unpleasant weather weekend. Sorry about that! But we need what rain we can get, so be thankful for that as your high school graduation picnics turn into downpour soaked dashes indoors. And please don't leave the cake out in the rain. 

HOT TIMES AHEAD

The upcoming week looks interesting, Not in terms of storms, but heat.

Monday will be nice enough, with sunshine low humidity and highs near 80s. Tuesday turns hot, with most of us in the 80s with some towns touching 90. At least the humidity on Tuesday will be low. 

Not so much for the rest of the week. Humidity will rise as the heat continues to build. 

Burlington had a chance Tuesday through Friday of seeing four consecutive days where temperatures get to at least 90 degrees. The National Weather Service is already putting us on alert that this could be a serious hot spell, with serious heat risk, especially for unhealthy people with little or no access to air conditioning. 

As far as rainfall, a weak disturbance embedded in the hot flow of air from the southwest could touch off some scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. But the storms don't look like they'll be particularly widespread. 

The heat and humidity has a good  chance of lasting beyond Friday.  

 

Vermont Going From Summer Heat To Frost/Freeze Cold

A spectacular sunset last evening marked the transition
to much cooler weather after our heat wave. Now,
frost and freeze alerts are up tonight for most of Vermont

Well, our heat wave is certainly over in Vermont as we go back to early spring chill. From 90 degrees in parts of Vermont Tuesday to frost and even freezes in much of the state by Friday morning. The weather whiplash continues. 

More on the expected frost and freeze a little further down. 

Yesterday was a transition day. It started overcast and incredibly warm for May and sort of muggy. By midday, especially in northern Vermont, it turned into a breezy, bright and blue summer day. Burlington reached 81 degrees.

By evening, a layer of mid and high level clouds arrived, with clear skies far to the northwest. This set up one of the best, brightest and most beautiful sunsets we've had in ages. Even outdoing the awesome sunset this past Saturday. 

TODAY

Later, skies cleared, and we start today chilly in the 40s. Those high clouds were still around, so I imagine early risers (VERY early, sunrise was at 5:198 a.m) saw a fantastic sunrise.

If it isn't sunny where you are, it should gradually become so this morning, at least if you're in northern and central Vermont.. The south will tend to stay rather cloudy much of the day, but these will mostly be those high and middle level clouds so some sun should get through. 

Highs should only get within a few degrees of 60 for highs today. It'll be cooler than that north and mountains. That'll set us up for night that will make your plants shiver. Or worse. 

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY

You'd think with a high today in the 55 to 62 degree range, frost would be pretty scattered and light. But the air mass coning in is exceptionally dry. The drier the air, the more it can cool off on clear, calm nights. 

It's why deserts can be 100 degrees or more during the day and near freezing at night.

As such, the National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for all of Vermont and northern New York except the Champlain Valley. A freeze warning is up for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York for expected temperatures below 32 degrees.

For now, the Champlain Valley, west of Route 7 looks safe. Maybe. Look for updates this afternoon because updated forecasts might well be colder than I'm depicting here. 

The National Weather Service is considering an upgrade to a freeze warning in north central Vermont, and maybe issuing a frost advisory for the Champlain Valley. Those meteorologists are waiting on updated guidance this afternoon before they decide what to do. 

Despite the warm climate changed springs we've had in recent years, I guess that old adage is still true. Don't put out sensitive plants like tomatoes until after Memorial Day.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

After the morning frost, Friday itself should be gorgeous with sunshine and highs well into the 60s to around 70.

The rest of the weekend is still a pretty big question mark. Saturday looks dry, according to most computer models. But they are disagreeing on whether rain comes in Sunday, and if so how much. Monday has a better shot at getting wet, but again, the timing and amount of rain are still very, very open to debate.

Out Warm, Showery Vermont Week Has Begun, Springtime Thunderstorms In The Mix Too??

More patches of green and flower buds keep showing
up in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens amid mild air
and April showers. A lot more greenery will 
appear this week as the mild, showers weather continues. 

Well, Sunday worked out about as planned, as morning sun quickly yielded to a gray day, with rain arriving central and north toward evening. 

As expected, not much rain fell, except in a few places. Most of northern Vermont got a quarter inch of rain, give or take.  Some places close to the Canadian border got quite a bit more. 

My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans recorded 0.8 inches of rain overnight. In southern Vermont, there were only sprinkles overnight. 

The wind also picked up in the Champlain Valley, and it was a bit gusty with winds to 40  or 45 mph at times. 

Elsewhere, there were some breezes, and cloudy skies and damp air to start the day. The wind will tend to diminish some this afternoon.

This sets us up for a rather warm, pretty unsettled week. If you wanted your April showers, the next several days will result in a flood of May flowers. The good news is it doesn't look like the showers will be enough to bring much of any other kind of more unpleasant floods. 

Except maybe in far northern Vermont. There's no flood alerts anywhere up in that neck of the woods. But that part of the state can expect some local downpours over the next few days.  And maybe even some thunderstorms to jazz things up a little. Plus,  there's still snow melting off of high elevations like Jay Peak. 

I'm not particularly worried about any flooding at this point, but, as always, we'll keep an eye on it.

THE PATTERN

Everything is kind of stuck for a few days. A strong ridge of high pressure - basically a heat dome - is set up along or near the Southeast coast.  That means the East Coast from about New York City south will have a week of hot, dry weather. 

We'll see a bunch of record highs through much of the East. (Washington DC should have daily highs near 90 degrees all week, for instance).  The East Coast will also face worsening drought and a worsening wildfire risk, so the news isn't good there. 

It's been a relatively warm spring so far here in Vermont, but not as extreme as many other parts of the US. In many parts of the nation, summer essentially started by the time the spring equinox rolled around. Very weird. 

Small storms and disturbances will ride the western and northern periphery  of the heat dome, riding up through the Plains and parts of the Midwest, then turning eastward through the Great Lakes and then New England. Mostly northern New England. 

That means several days of a tornado and severe storms risk in the middle of the nation and flooding risks in the northern Great Lake. For us in Vermont, it won't be so scary.  Well see lots of showers mixed with breaks of drier weather, warm temperatures, especially in southern Vermont, a rapid advancement of spring and probably an explosion of those awful black flies we see every spring. 

Spring can't just be flowers and sunshine after all.

THE DETAILS

Essentially, a front separating somewhere cooler air to the north and the summery air to the south will hang out near the Canadian border most of the week, wavering north and south  into and out of Vermont as s disturbances come by one after the other. 

Northern Vermont will be mild enough, as the real cold air will stay behind another boundary way up in Quebec. By that I mean highs in the 60s most of the week, lows near 50 with those requent shower threats. 

By the time you get to southern Vermont, it will be almost full on summer. Today should be the first of at least six consecutive days in places like Brattleboro will be in the 70s.  I wouldn't be a surprised if an 80 degree day or two were thrown in. Pretty impressive for mid-April!

Southern Vermont might see some showers and thunderstorms too, but probably not as many as areas to the north. 

A warm front came though overnight.  That established our boundary we'll deal with all week. The front should settle back down into northern Vermont as a cold front this afternoon. That means showers would re-blossom this afternoon. 

Most of us should see only a tenth to a quarter inch of rain out of this. 

TUESDAY

The cold front won't be able to drop temperatures much in the north and not at all in the south. So by tomorrow, we'll have another day that reaches the low 60s north, near 70 south.  

Another in a series of disturbances will come at us tomorrow. This one might include thunderstorms. In fact a few of them could get a little strong in the warmer, humid air in central and perhaps southern Vermont. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe storms basically south and west of Interstate 89 on Tuesday. That's the lowest of five alert levels for severe storms, but still. I think this i the first time we've contemplated severe storms this year. 

Basically, we could have isolated instances of strong wind gusts and some hail in a few spots tomorrow. This forecasts will probably be adjusted one way or another by tomorrow, so stay tuned. There is a much better chance of severe storms tomorrow over the Great Lakes and many parts of the Midwest. 

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY

Kind of rinse and repeat. Disturbances will bring showers and maybe a few thunderstorms through both days. Whether we get any sort of strong storms depends on whether the disturbances come through during the peak heating of the day and whether we get sun ahead of these disturbances to make the atmosphere more unstable. 

We'll keep an eye on that, too. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY

The ridge of high pressure will tend to reorient itself so it pokes further north. By Saturday, that means we should have the warmest day of this spell of weather. Depending on how much sun hits, many areas could hit 80 degrees for a real summer preview. No promises, but we'll see.

Sometime later Saturday or Sunday, a cold front will come in with more showers and maybe storms, and that will bring us back down to reality.  Summer will be temporarily over by early next week as temperatures fall to near normal (highs in the 50s lows in the 30s).

After a seemingly never ending winter, you didn't actually expect a never ending summer in Vermont, did you?  Of course not. 

 

Torrential Snow Falling In Vermont This Evening

Traffic cam grab shows heavy, wet snow along
Route 7 in Ferrisburgh late this afternoon. 

As some winter enthusiasts might say, it's puking snow out there. 

That long anticipated band of heavy snow has made its way through most of Vermont as of 5 p.m. today. The Northeast Kingdom is still waiting for it to start, but it will soon.

The National Weather Service noted the clouds that are producing the snow are oddly tall for a winter storm, resembling what you might see with heavy snow squalls. 

These aren't smoother, shallower clouds that you would see with a typical New England winter storm.  

I still think there's a low, but not zero chance of thunder snow this evening. I noticed a few lightning strikes a bit east of Watertown, New York late this afternoon

Once the snow arrived at any one location, it tended to wax and wane a bit. But when it was heaviest, it was coming down at a rate of up to two inches per hour. That's the heaviest snow rate we've seen all winter. 

We're lucky that the heavy snow in any given spot won't last more than six hours. Imagine if this were a day-long storm. 

In any event, you should be off the roads this evening as this burst of snow comes through. Judging from the web cams, the roads go from wet to snow covered in less than half an hour after the snow starts. And the snow comes down too hard to keep up with the plowing as that heavier band comes through. 

I almost guarantee there will be some traffic tie ups into this evening, especially in Chittenden County as people try to make their way home from work or school .c 

The overall forecast hasn't changed since this morning. We're still looking at a 5 to 10 inch dump, with most of it coming in that six hour burst this evening. 

The higher end totals would be in the Green Mountains, especially central and south. The lower end of that range would be in parts of the Champlain Valley, and along Route 7 in the valley floor in southwest Vermont. Down toward Bennington, it might only amount to two or three inches. 

This evening's snow still looks like it's wet and heavy.  There might be a few issues with fallen branches and power lines, but I don't think we'll see many power outages.

Notice how "bumpy" the clouds were on satellite
images as the snow moved into Vermont this
afternoon. That's a sign of convection, which
meant bursts of very heavy snow. 

Lighter snow will fall later tonight and early tomorrow to finish up the storm. It'll abruply get a little colder late tonight as readings sink into the low 20.  Saturday looks like it will turn out to be a typical mostly cloudy late February day.

 There could be some light flurries around as temperatures hold in the 20s for the most part.

Be careful cleaning up the snow. Even though it will be colder on Saturday, most of the snow that does fall on your sidewalk or driveway will feel like cement. 

Sunday looks to the pick of the weekend. It'll still be generally cloudy, with maybe some sun. Temperatures should get up into the relatively mild low to mid 30s for the most part. 

NOR'EASTER

We'll have to start talking more about that nor'easter since the latest computer models have nudged its projected path a little further to the west. 

This nor'easter looks like it will hold its precipitation shield relatively close to its center. I still think Vermont will mostly be a bystander. But, a little snow could fall from this in southeastern Vermont. North to northeast winds will probably pick up, too.

However, if you have Sunday and Monday plans to visit Delaware, New Jersey, Long Island or eastern New England, be aware that those places are beginning to look like they are really in for a storm, 

I'll have more on the nor'easter tomorrow. 

Vermont, And Rest Of North Country Still On Target For Blast Of Snow Today

The latest National Weather Service snow forecast
issued this morning. Areas in yellow and orang can
expect six to 10 inches of snow. Blue areas will
be closer to five inches. 

The sky overhead as we woke up this morning was the polar opposite of yesterday's weather. 

Instead of that beautiful bluebird sky we enjoyed on Thursday. there's an ominous gray overhead.

 That's our sign that Vermont and the rest of the North Country is in for a blast of wet snow this afternoon and evening that will have some of you crying "uncle."

It's not that this storm will be much bigger than usual. Instead, it's another installment in a long, long winter. And, as we've noted previously. the timing and consistency of this thump of snow is bad. 

TIMING

You'll want to get any driving and errands done by noon today to be on the safe side

The snow should arrive in southwestern Vermont by around noon.  Along Interstate 89, the snow will start maybe around 3 or 4 p.m., give or take. The Northeast Kingdom might be able to squeak through the evening commute before the snow starts there at around 6 p.m., again, give or take. 

The snow will come in fast. Very soon after you see the first raindrops or snowflakes, the precipitation will get heavy and quickly. Those caught out on the roads will see conditions go from great to terrible in no time. 

AMOUNTS

Overall, the forecast hasn't changed much since last night. Broad brush, most of Vermont and surrounding areas should get five to 10 inches of snow. The bulk of that snow will come down within a few hours starting in the mid to late afternoon and continuing into the evening. 

If there's any changes, the amount of expected snow in the southern and central Green Mountains has ticked up by about an inch. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple spots along the east slopes of the southern or central Green Mountains come close to a foot of snow. 

Along the valley floor along Route 7 in southwest Vermont, above freezing temperatures combined with east winds might cut accumulations down closer to three or four inches. Perhaps as little as two inches around Bennington.  

When the wind comes out of the east, the wind flows downhill along the western slopes of the mountains. Air flowing downhill tends to dry out somewhat, which explains the potentially lower snow totals there. 

In the immediate Champlain Valley, the precipitation might start out with a rain/snow mix, then quickly shift to all wet snow. The initial mix might keep total accumulations down to five or six inches. 

WET, HEAVY SNOW

I bring up the mix of rain at the start west of the Green Mountains because of an interesting temperature set up this morning. East of the Green Mountains, temperatures were only in the single numbers early this morning. West of the Green Mountains, temperatures were in the 28 to 33 degree range. Bennington was already at 36 degrees.

Those areas are starting warmer than we thought. Before the precipitation starts this afternoon, temperatures west of the Greens could even briefly flirt with 40, especially down by Bennington. Even eastern Vermont should get into the low 30s by the time the snow arrives. 

However, once the precipitation starts getting heavy, that should cool the atmosphere enough to change everyone over to snow fairly quickly. 

Still, temperatures during this evening's big thump of snow should stay close to 32 or 33 degrees. The bottom line is this will be a wet and heavy snow. Not the nice, gentle powdery snowfalls we've seen most of this winter. 

As I've noted before, wet snow turns into a particularly slippery ice when compacted beneath vehicle tires.  The snow will also come down at a rate of an inch or more per hour.  Some spots on the eastern slopes of the southern Green Mountains and southeastern slopes of the Adirondacks could briefly near two inches per hour.

Road crews cannot keep up with that rate of snowfall. People will be stuck on hills, slide-offs will gum up highways. Late this afternoon and evening will be an absolutely mess. I hope some of our readers were able to arrange to work at home today. 

This really is a dynamic storm, judging from the tornadoes it spun off yesterday in Illinois and Indiana. Here in Vermont, I think we have a low, but not zero chance of seeing some thunder snow this evening, especially south. 

As we mentioned yesterday, the snow will turn much lighter and drier in consistency later tonight a Saturday morning. A new storm near the New England coast will steal most of the atmospheric energy later today and whisk it quickly eastward out into the Atlantic Ocean. 

It won't be such a bad day tomorrow with clouds, and maybe some light snow especially in the mountains. There could even by a little sun north late in the day. 

We're still watching that nor'easter for Sunday night and Monday. It still looks like it will miss us here in Vermont.  We'll update after we get through today's mess.  

Thursday Afternoon Update: After Today's Hints Of Spring, Vermont Braces For Tomorrow's Snow'

Updated storm total map for tomorrow's storm.
Orange areas get eight inches or more Blue areas
are five inches or less. Expect some changes to
the forecast by tomorrow. The storm might end up
seeming worse than these totals suggest because
the initial surge of snow will come down hard. 

I hope you enjoyed our hints of spring this afternoon. Winter still looks like it will return with a vengeance tomorrow. 

Under strong sunshine, most places got into the mid 30s to around 40 today. An exception was right along the Canadian border, especially in the far northern Champlain Valley where temperatures held near 32 degrees. 

Now for our Thursday evening storm update:

If anything, the amount of snow we'll get has ticked up just a little since this morning's forecast. 

The storm responsible for all this is in the Midwest. It's quite vigorous, judging from the tornado watch in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky this afternoon.  The storm has prompted some flood watch in West Virginia and Pennsylvania, too. 

The storm will be weakened some by the time it gets closer to us, but it will still pack a punch when it arrives. 

 The snow will come at us from southwest to northeast, hitting the Bennington area first early in the afternoon. By 4 p.m give or take it will be along and south and west of Interstate 89. The snow will then fill in toward the Northeast Kingdom by dark or so. Stay tuned for updates as the timing might change a little.

The storm will be more intense than the predicted snow totals suggest. Once the snow arrives, it'll very quickly go from flurries to very heavy snow, piling up at a rate of an inch or more per hour. It still looks it might start off mixed with rain in the lower valleys but will quickly go to snow.

You won't want to be on the roads when this arrives. The initial burst of heavy snow will be wet an heavy. That kind of snow compacts under car tires to create a particularly slick variety of ice. I anticipate big tie ups on the Interstate with a lot of slide offs and potential crashes once this hits.Like I said this morning, if you can work from home tomorrow instead of going into the office, do that. 

As expected, the National Weather Service has updated all the winter alerts for Friday The southeastern quarter of Vermont and the Green Mountains from the Massachusetts border north to about Sugarbush are under a winter storm warning from late Friday morning to Saturday morning. 

The southeastern Adirondacks of New York and southern New Hampshire are also under a winter storm warning. Everybody under the warning should get a storm total of 6 to 10 inches 

Winter storm warnings are usually issued when there's an expectation of at least six inches of snow. The rest of the region is under a winter weather advisory for four to seven inches of snow. (Forecaster think some areas will see six inches of snow in the advisory area, but not everyone will. 

The initial burst of heavy, wet snow will account for most of the accumulation with this thing.  You will be shoveling wet cement when it comes time to clear sidewalks and driveways. 

Overnight Friday and into Saturday, our storm will weaken rapidly as a new storm gets going along the New England coast and then goes quickly out to sea. Light snow will continue into Saturday, mostly in the north and mountains. The consistency of the snow overnight Friday and into Saturday will be nice and fluffy. That will give us a bit of a break, anyway. 

There's no great surge of frigid air coming in after this storm for a change. Highs Saturday will approach 30. Under partly cloudy skies Sunday, we should make it into the mid-30s.

That nor'easter  I mentioned this morning for Monday still looks like a miss for Vermont. 

 

No Outdoor Brunches In Vermont Today: Wicked Cold As Expected

Had to re-up the cold air hurts my face
to illustrate the Arctic blast we're in the
midst of experiencing. 

 Sure enough, it was solidly below zero everywhere in Vermont this morning  as we "enjoy" our blast of Arctic air courtesy of the lovely folks over in Siberia. 

I guess we can rejoice in the fact that this isn't record cold. Just unpleasantly nippy. 

As is usually the case in the first full morning of a cold wave like this, temperatures across Vermont were pretty uniform as the day started. 

Almost everyone in Vermont had temperatures in the single numbers below zero as of 8 a.m. today.  

A north wind is keeping the atmosphere mixed so everybody gets to enjoy roughly the same level of cold. 

Had it been clear with calm winds, temperatures would be all over the place this morning, with  relative warm and cold pockets. That's what we have coming tomorrow. More on that in a bit.

Winds were a little lighter in northern New York, and temperatures were in the teens below most places there. 

Watertown, New York went to calm winds overnight and, incredibly, they got down 35 below. Actual temperature, not the wind chill.

Speaking of wind chill, it felt like it was in the 20s below across most of Vermont this morning with north winds blowing at around 10 mph, give or take. As my headline suggests, take your brunch inside a cozy restaurant, maybe near the fireplace. 

The wind will keep us feeling frigid all day today. But, the core of the very coldest air is moving out, and the sun will also more or less shine most of the day. That means we should get above zero for actual temperatures this afternoon. Those north winds will keep blowing, so we can expect wind chills in the teens below through the day.  

Watch out if you're crazy enough to go skiing or something 52 blike that today. The wind chills on those exposed slopes could be ridiculous. The wind chill on Mount Marcy, New York last evening was 63 below. On Mount Mansfield, it was 52 below.

It'll be a little better up there today, but not by much. 

TONIGHT AND BEYOND

About as wintry a satellite view as you can get. This
one, taken Sunday morning, shows solid snow cover
remaining all the way down to Virginia. Those clouds
you see off the entire East Coast are caused by
frigid air flowing over warmer Atlantic water. 

The second night of a Vermont cold spell like this gets hard to predict. Some places will still have breezes that will prevent temperatures from completely bottoming out. Some sheltered valleys could end up with calm winds and readings well into the 20s below by dawn tomorrow. 

Also, there might be some areas of cloudy skies around for awhile tonight. If they clear out fast, it'll turn colder. If the clouds hang on, it won't be quite as bad.  So, please forgive your local Vermont meteorologist if they tell you tonight's lows across the state will range from minus 5 to near 25 below. 

Monday still looks like it will be another cold day as the frigid Arctic high pressure only begrudgingly. That high will probably be right on top of us during the day, so expect sunny skies, light winds and highs in the low to mid teens. Not that bad, honestly. 

After another subzero start to the day Tuesday, clouds will fill in ahead of the next little Alberta Clipper storm from Canada. That'll probably deposit another one to three inches of snow on the Green Mountain State Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Unlike several other Alberta Clippers in recent weeks, this one won't have particularly frigid air behind it. It looks like we'll have a few days of average, quiet weather late in the week. Average this time of year means highs in the 25 to 32 degree range with lows between 5 and 15 degrees.  

Maybe we're turning a corner. There's actually a chance this weekend might be the coldest weather we'll see until next winter. Of course, I might have just  jinxed us into being in the 20s below until April. Let's hope not!