After Our Vermont Morning Frosts, It's Back To Late Spring Warmth. Except A Nippy Sunday?

It's lilac season, as they blooms cascade over my deck
railing. Cool temperatures this Memorial Day weekend
will preserve the lilacs for awhile, but it won't exactly
feel like an introduction to summer. 

 The cold temperatures last night worked out about as forecast. We had widespread frost, with a large minority of places in northern Vermont going below freezing. 

Montpelier got down to 31 degrees and Morrisville was 29 degrees. St. Johnsbury was barely above freezing at 33 degrees. 

It looks like the Champlain Valley escape the frost for the most part, as temperatures there reached the upper 30s. Burlington had an overnight low of 38 degrees.

There was likely seen light frost across southern Vermont, too. Rutland, Springfield and Bennington all reported morning low temperatures of 35 degrees 

We have nice day on the way, with highs popping back up well into the 60s.  Some high clouds should return this afternoon, but those won't entirely hide the sun. 

Then we get into a Memorial Day weekend that looks, not great in the weather department. But we still have some questions about how much rain we might get and when it might fall. We do know it will be dry much of the time, at least on Saturday and Monday. Let's take a shot at the forecast here: 

SATURDAY

Not too bad, actually, especially north. If the clouds stay thin enough north, the day might begin with patchy frost in the normally colder spots, but the vast majority of us will be fine. It'll be a cloudy day, with the thickest clouds south.

That'll affect temperatures. Highs under the thicker clouds south will probably hold temperatures down into the upper 50s. Where the clouds are thinner north, weak sun getting through will hopefully push temperatures up to near 70.

SUNDAY

Unfortunately, if current forecasts hold, Sunday's weather will be almost as bad as it can get for this time of year. Almost, because there will be no disasters, no snow, or anything like that. 

But it won't feel like the introduction to summer it's supposed to be, either. Light rain should move in later Saturday night and continue much of Sunday. Worse, this is a cold system, so the lack of sunshine and the rain could well hold high temperatures to within a few degrees either side of 50. 

Some places, especially in wetter southern Vermont, could have a high temperature in the mid and upper 40s. You know, like late March,  not late April. 

The one ray of hope is there is some questions as to whether the high pressure system that gave us this morning's frost will at least partially block this system. If it does, there would be some breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures, especially north. But that looks sort of unlikely at this point. 

The rain should be quite light, ranging from a tenth of an inch north to up to a half inch far south. 

MONDAY

OK, this won't be perfect, but it will be better. Winds from the west will import somewhat warmer air into Vermont. We'll still have a risk of showers, but temperatures should pop back up to near 70, which isn't far from normal for this time of year. 

Thursday Evening Vermont Frost Update: Protect Your Plants Almost Everywhere In Vermont

Visible satellite photo has clear skies in northern and
central Vermont and high clouds south late this
afternoon. Many of those high clouds are expected 
to clear, so frost and freezes are likely in most\
of Vermont tonight and early Friday.

It's a gorgeous late afternoon, especially north, where the landscape features clear blue skies and the greening hills and mountains around us. 

Southern Vermont has quite a few high clouds. They might save the day, or I should say night, and prevent frost down there. But chances are better than even, allowing a frost risk all the way down to the Massachusetts border.

Frost, if not a freeze, is a given tonight and early Friday in northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain .

The Northeast Kingdom is still under a freeze warning, as it was this morning. But that freeze warning has been extended to all of northern Vermont east of the Green Mountains. Temperatures are forecast to be a little colder there than forecasters thought during this morning. The forecast low in Montpelier tonight is 29 or 30 degrees.Their record low tomorrow morning, by the way, is 29 degrees. 

The rest of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley is under a frost advisory for temperatures in the low to mid 30s overnight. 

Despite a lack of any advisories or warnings in the central and northern Champlain Valley, I still wonder if there might be some patches of frost. I think that might happen in spots, especially near and east of Route 7. Just to be safe, I'd cover up or bring sensitive plants in, unless you're right near Lake Champlain.  If you don't get a frost, it'll be no big deal to remove the covers tomorrow morning. 

As of 4 p.m. the dew point was between 27 and 30 across most of Vermont. The dew point is the temperature we have to cool down to get water droplets and dew.

The dew point is a good, but imperfect predictor of frosts and freezes.  If skies remain clear and wind stays calm tonight, that dew point means it can easily get to near freezing tonight across most of Vermont. 

So yup, dig out the sheets, cover all those brand new frost-prone plants you have and hope for the best. If you have a strong back, haul those big tropical potted plants back indoors if you're in the potential freeze zone. You know the drill

Vermont Going From Summer Heat To Frost/Freeze Cold

A spectacular sunset last evening marked the transition
to much cooler weather after our heat wave. Now,
frost and freeze alerts are up tonight for most of Vermont

Well, our heat wave is certainly over in Vermont as we go back to early spring chill. From 90 degrees in parts of Vermont Tuesday to frost and even freezes in much of the state by Friday morning. The weather whiplash continues. 

More on the expected frost and freeze a little further down. 

Yesterday was a transition day. It started overcast and incredibly warm for May and sort of muggy. By midday, especially in northern Vermont, it turned into a breezy, bright and blue summer day. Burlington reached 81 degrees.

By evening, a layer of mid and high level clouds arrived, with clear skies far to the northwest. This set up one of the best, brightest and most beautiful sunsets we've had in ages. Even outdoing the awesome sunset this past Saturday. 

TODAY

Later, skies cleared, and we start today chilly in the 40s. Those high clouds were still around, so I imagine early risers (VERY early, sunrise was at 5:198 a.m) saw a fantastic sunrise.

If it isn't sunny where you are, it should gradually become so this morning, at least if you're in northern and central Vermont.. The south will tend to stay rather cloudy much of the day, but these will mostly be those high and middle level clouds so some sun should get through. 

Highs should only get within a few degrees of 60 for highs today. It'll be cooler than that north and mountains. That'll set us up for night that will make your plants shiver. Or worse. 

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY

You'd think with a high today in the 55 to 62 degree range, frost would be pretty scattered and light. But the air mass coning in is exceptionally dry. The drier the air, the more it can cool off on clear, calm nights. 

It's why deserts can be 100 degrees or more during the day and near freezing at night.

As such, the National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for all of Vermont and northern New York except the Champlain Valley. A freeze warning is up for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York for expected temperatures below 32 degrees.

For now, the Champlain Valley, west of Route 7 looks safe. Maybe. Look for updates this afternoon because updated forecasts might well be colder than I'm depicting here. 

The National Weather Service is considering an upgrade to a freeze warning in north central Vermont, and maybe issuing a frost advisory for the Champlain Valley. Those meteorologists are waiting on updated guidance this afternoon before they decide what to do. 

Despite the warm climate changed springs we've had in recent years, I guess that old adage is still true. Don't put out sensitive plants like tomatoes until after Memorial Day.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

After the morning frost, Friday itself should be gorgeous with sunshine and highs well into the 60s to around 70.

The rest of the weekend is still a pretty big question mark. Saturday looks dry, according to most computer models. But they are disagreeing on whether rain comes in Sunday, and if so how much. Monday has a better shot at getting wet, but again, the timing and amount of rain are still very, very open to debate.

Crazy Vermont/Northeast Heat About To End; Records Set, MUCH Cooler Air On Our Doorsteps

A sea of lilacs as viewed from my back deck in St. 
Albans, Vermont. The hot temperatures of the past
few days made them rapidly bloom. Hopefully
the upcoming cooler weather will preserve the
blooms and the fragrance for awhile. 

 We just managed to do it yesterday in Burlington. 

After clouds held temperatures in the 86 or 87 degree range much of the afternoon, skies cleared and helped boost temperatures to 90 degrees again. Second day in a row that happened. Tuesday's high fell just one degree short of the record high set in 1989.

Other cities in the Northeast set record highs in a big way.

In Philadelphia, it was 98 degrees, setting a new record for the hottest temperature in the entire month of May. Newark, New Jersey at 99 degrees and Manchester, New Hampshire at 97 degrees tied the record high for the month of May. 

Manchester shattered the record for the date by eight degrees, which is quite an accomplishment. 

Other record highs include 96 in Boston, 93 in Providence and 92 in Portland, Maine. 

All these are extraordinary hot temperatures for so early in the season.  

Back here in Vermont, unlike the day before, the morning didn't start cool. The low temperature in Burlington yesterday was  was 71 degrees, breaking a 123-year old record.

This May heat might portend a hot summer. The number crunching meteorologists at WCAX discovered that if the first 90 degree day of the year hits in June, which is what usually happens, on average the enter year will have eight days of 90 degree heat.

If the first 90 hits in May, then on average 11 days during the year will touch at least 90 

Also yesterday, those thunderstorms failed to materialize in Vermont. As we mentioned yesterday, it could have gone either way.  A weather disturbance that could have touched off some storms passed through the Green Mountain State in the late morning. That was too early to touch off anything more than light showers.

The disturbance did generate some thunderstorms in far southern Vermont and in southern New England. The storms in Connecticut were strong enough to knock down a few trees. 

TODAY

Big changes are afoot, but it will take a little while to get here. 

Early morning temperatures across Vermont were extraordinarily warm.  At 7 a.m, Burlington hit their low temperature for the day so far at 76 degrees. Not long after dawn at 6 a.m., it was 74 in Montpelier and Rutland and 72 degrees in Newport. These would easily be candidates for the hottest, stuffiest nights of the month in July. 

We won't set any records for highest low temperature today because by midnight tonight, it will much cooler than what we saw early today. 

Our cold front looked like it was in eastern New York as of 8 a.m. today and will come through Vermont thorough the rest of this morning.  Forecasts call for highs to get cut off in the upper 70s to near 80 north and in the low to perhaps mid 80s far south. 

Meanwhile, our friends in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States will endure one more torrid May day. 

Here in lilac-scented Vermont, though, you'll notice the change in the air today by mid afternoon north and late afternoon south. Even thought the sun should come out, temperatures will be slowly falling amid northwest breezes, humidity levels will fall. Summer will temporally end in favor of spring. 

THURSDAY

You'll need to dig out your fleece and long pants if you're taking your dog for a walk early tomorrow. We'll wake up to early morning temperatures in the low 40s. That's not ridiculous for May, but it is another shocking weather whiplash moment. 

Highs will only get into the 50s to near 60 north and low to mid 60s south, which is actually about 10 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Skies should be at least partly sunny, but there might be some more clouds north and mountains away from the Champlain Valley. 

Away from the Champlain Valley, we're actually back to a risk of some frost in some spots Thursday night and early Friday morning. We'll have more details on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 

This will feature a standoff between strong, cool high pressure in far eastern Quebec and coastal southeast Canada and storminess to our south and west. 

Depending on how this sets up, it could either be cloudy and cool or partly sunny and seasonable. I'm not yet sure where we're going to go with this. Friday has the best chance of being sunny and nice. Saturday will probably be rain-free, especially north. Showers might or might not come in Sunday, and those showers are somewhat more likely Monday. 

Whatever happens, it looks like whatever rain we get will end up being quite light.

Places further south will have an even bigger change in the weather. Cities like Newark and Philadelphia that were in the upper 90s Tuesday will probably have highs barely making it into the low 50s Saturday under rainy skies. 

Back here in Vermont, we'll probably warm up nicely next week. There's mixed signals as to whether it will be just seasonably warm in the 70s or quite warm in the 80s. But we have time to figure that out.  

Unexpected Clouds Rescued Most Of Vermont/North Country From A Nasty Freeze

The sky looked chilly over St. Albans yesterday, leading
to forecasts of freezes and frosts. It did get cold last
night, but it was a couple degrees warmer than 
forecasts, so no hard freezes. That was good
for vulnerable plants and crops.

For the most part, it didn't get quite as cold in most of Vermont overnight, thanks mostly to some unexpected clouds that covered the skies over northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Clouds tend to hold in heat, so it ended up a few degrees warmer than it otherwise would have been.

Under clearer skies, Bennington did manage to get to at least 31 degrees, and Rutland was at 32.  

Most of northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley were also in the low 30s, so there was at least light frost around. But we had no hard freezes except in the coldest hollows where the growing season hasn't really started anyway. 

The Champlain Valley remained mostly frost free, though Middlebury. a little south of that cloud cover, did manage to touch 32 degree.  It looks like Burlington bottomed out at a reasonable 39 degrees. which won't even be the coldest night this month. It was 37 degrees on May 8.

Until recent years, it would almost always get below freezing in Burlington during May. That has changed with climate change intensifying. Since 2011, May temperatures in Burlington have touched 32 degrees on only three occasions. 

Judging from weather forecasts, Burlington will not see any freezing temperatures this May, either. 

FORECAST

The good news is it's going to get wet. We actually need the rain. And eventually, it's going to get warmer. 

Today

The clouds in the north should at least partly clear out today.  If it all works out, we'll end up with a classic cool May afternoon. Sun will mix with clouds and highs will only reach the 50s, which is a good ten degrees cooler than average. 

With such a cool days in store, you'd think we'd be in for another frost and freeze risk tonight. There might well be areas of frost, especially in central and eastern Vermont, but overall, tonight will be a bit warmer than last night. 

That's because more clouds will be coming in. This will introduce a fairly long stretch of wet weather.

Wednesday/Thursday

There's some debate as to when the rain will start Wednesday. Could be early in the morning, could be in the late morning. But it's not going to be a nice day. Another stay indoors day for sure. It'll be rainy and cool, with chilly southeast breezes. Once again we'll  only get into the 50s. 

The storm coming in from the west will eventually transfer to a new, sluggish system on or near the New England coast. That will keep moisture coming inland across the region. That means on and off rain through Thursday. 

Early estimates say most of us would get between a half and three quarters of an inch of rain out of this, with maybe bit less right near the Canadian border.  A few spots central and south could get over an inch of rain. 

Friday/Weekend

That offshore New England storm will probably keep clouds and some showers going on Friday, but my early guess is it won't be a washout. And it'll be a little warmer, with highs in the 60s.

The weekend looks pretty good. There is a slight chance of showers, I suppose, but we'll also a fair amount of sun, fingers crossed. The bigger news is the temperature: It should get to at least near 70 degrees each day. 

The entire weather pattern is changing.  For the rest of May, chilly blasts of air will have a much more difficult time coming in from Canada than they did during the first half of the month. There might be a cool day thrown in here and there. But otherwise we'll launch into what I call pre-summer. 

The weather will be almost summery, but not quite. That means lots of 70s and for almost all of us, no chance of nighttime more frosts.

Let those gardens grow! 

Frost, Freezes In Vermont Tonight. Protect Those Gardens

Tree foliage frozen to death during a destructive 
freeze in May, 2023.  Freeze warnings and frost
advisories are in effect in and around Vermont
tonight. It won't be as bad as 2023, but 
sensitive plants and gardens will 
need protection tonight. 

After a cool, cloudy afternoon in Vermont we're in for a frosty night with freezes, so it's time to cover sensitive plants and protect crops.    

The clouds and light showers north will tend to evaporate as the sun goes down this evening. Temperatures this afternoon were only in the 50s, so readings won't have far to go to get close to the freezing mark. 

Eventually, skies will become clear, which would make it even colder.  

So: A freeze warning is up for all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom, the Champlain Valley and the lower Connecticut River Valley south of Springfield. 

In those areas covered by the freeze warning, expect temperatures to fall to between 29 and 32 degrees by dawn. The freeze could damage crops and gardens. 

We'll have to watch apple and strawberry growers and wineries. This won't be as bad a freeze as the one in May, 2023, which cost farmers and other growers roughly $10 million in crop losses.  

The freeze tonight will not feature temperatures as low as on May 18, 2023. Also, that year featured a really premature spring, much more than this year. So plants and blooms were further along than they are this year, which left them more prone to damage. The hard 2023 freeze also covered the entire state, causing damage all across Vermont. 

Still, this one could be expensive, if farmers aren't able to take measures to protect crops, or if it unexpectedly gets colder than forecast. 

The Northeast Kingdom is not under any advisories or warnings because the growing season has not really started yet in that colder corner of Vermont. 

A frost advisory is in effect for all of the rest of Vermont I haven't mentioned yet. Except Grand Isle County. The islands in Lake Champlain should stay safely above freezing due to the comparatively warm lake water that will temper the chill in the air just a little. 

There might be some frost away from Lake Champlain tomorrow night, too. But increasing cloudiness and a warming air mass means it won't be as cold tomorrow night as tonight will be. 

Frosty Times In Vermont As Long Awaited Warm Weather Is Postponed A Bit M

Late afternoon sun lights up this spring scene in 
my St. Albans, Vermont back yard on Sunday.
Cool weather will preserve the flowers for
awhile, but sensitive plants are staying inside
tonight because of a frost risk. 

Morning showers yesterday, some unexpectedly heavy in northwest Vermont, gave way to a beautiful, breezy and mild Mother's Day. But also as expected, that nice weather yielded to a frosty morning in parts of Vermont this morning.  

Most places away from the Champlain Valley were in the low and mid 30s, which brings us into frost territory. 

The cool weather will go on all week, as some changes in the forecast have postponed some long awaited warm weather. But those balmy conditions are still on the way. Eventually.   

Let's take a gander at this week's cool weather. 

TODAY

Clouds will mix in with the sun this afternoon, especially north and mountains, as a very, very wimpy little disturbance passes by. There might even be a light shower or sprinkle in a few spot. Highs will hold in the mid and upper 50s, which is about ten degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tonight will be the coldest of the bunch, and I'm sure the National Weather Service in South Burlington will issue another round of frost advisories by the time they release their updated forecasts this afternoon. 

I'm not sure yet, but unlike last night, I suspect the frost advisories might extend into the Champlain Valley. Lows should range from the mid and upper 20s in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom, to the low 30s in most of Vermont and the mid-30s in the Champlain Valley. Take those sensitive plants indoors! 

As readers of this here blog thingy probably know, I almost always say it could be worse, and I find receipts that prove it. 

For example, on this day in Burlington, 1963, the high temperature was only 40 degrees, the low was 30 degrees and we had some cold rain, mixed with a  trace of snow. 

And on this date in 1945, higher elevations in southern Vermont was blasted by a mid-winter style snowfall. Somerset and Wilmington got 15 inches of snow, and 10 inches fell in Dorset. In lower elevations. 5.5 inches of snow accumulated in Rutland. 

OK moving on. 

TUESDAY

Another cool, sunny day after the morning frost with highs in the 50s. Actually a very nice, comfortably cool day to get things down outdoors. Aside from the black flies, that is.  Tuesday night will get chilly once again, so frost will be an issue for the third night in a row. It should be a couple degrees warmer than tonight because clouds will start to cover the skies overnight.  

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Those clouds will lead to frequent showers starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing well into Thursday. I'm not sure how much rain we'll get, but it doesn't look like we'll exactly drown. This isn't a powerhouse weather system that's coming in. 

We'll be done with the frost, finally, as the clouds will keep overnight temperatures in the 40s. But those same clouds and showers will hold daytime temperatures down to within a few degrees either side of 60. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

The weather system from Wednesday and Thursday now seems like it might sort of stall out over the ocean east of New England. That will keep clouds here in Vermont Friday and maybe into part of Saturday. And that storm will blunt the expected warmup, but only temporarily. 

It should get into the low 60s Friday and well into the 60s to near 70. That would be the first time in a week with near normal temperatures. 

The weather pattern does seem like it wants to evolve into something better if you're a warm weather fan.  Instead of the flow from Canada we've had since the very end of April, it looks like weather systems will want to zip through here on a nice west to east fashion starting next weekend. 

That means the second half of the month would provide us with near normal to somewhat warmer than normal conditions. Under that scenario, we'd end up with many but not all days making it into the 70s. The warmest days would be near 80 and the coolest days in that stretch would be in the 60s. 

In other words, almost, but not quite summer weather. Won't that be nice?

Cold Spell Of Vermont May Weather Continues With Snow, Freezes; Chilly Pattern To Continue

Daffodils enjoy some morning sun today in St. Albans,
Vermont. Cool weather has kept the daffodils blooming

Friday's weather in Vermont made a liar out of me. 

I said the other day we wouldn't get snow this week or next, except maybe at the tippy top of the mountains. 

Well, when I was in Enosburg Falls, Vermont yesterday, there was a graupel shower. While I was trying to mow a lawn, for gawd's sake. 

Graupel is that sleety, white snow that looks like it partly melted and refroze on the way down. Just regular snowflakes were spotted Friday in Readsboro, in southern Vermont. 

The place in Readsboro where it snowed is at a pretty high elevation, but not at the summit of any mountains. I'm sure it snowed in other places as well. Killington Ski Resort still has a trail with many feet of snow on it. They traditionally close for the season around Memorial Day or at about June 1. 

At this rate in the cool weather, Killington will be open to skiers all summer. I don't really believe that, but the chilly weather is starting to slow down the pace of spring. 

Last night was cold, too. Morning lows today in the Champlain Valley were in the mid-30s, so I think a frost advisory should have been issued there. A hard freeze hit some places away from the lake this morning. Montpelier got to at least 27 degrees and Morrisville was at 27 at 6 a.m. 

Saranac Lake, the perennial cold spot in the Adirondacks, was at a frigid 21 degrees at 6 a.m. today. 

On the bright side, it's not hot and humid, which would be even worse than the fleece and jacket weather we've been having. And the cold air keeps the early spring flowers going for longer. My daffodils look fantabulous this year. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

It'll be a little warmer this weekend, but not spectacularly so. And it's back to cool weather next week, though. And even though we'll see frequent chances of showers, we're not really going to get all the rain we need, either. 

A warm front of sorts is lifting up through Vermont today.  That means far southern Vermont should actually see some rain today, with maybe a quarter to a third of an inch down there.  It was already raining near the Massachusetts border early this morning. 

After a lot of morning sun, it will tend to cloud up this afternoon north. Central and northern Vermont will see little if any rain later today, and maybe just some light, boring showers tonight. 

A few showers might splatter down on Mother's Day, but they'll be hit and miss, won't last long and won't amount to much. Sunday will also actually feature normal temperatures for this time of year, with highs well into the 60s.

Enjoy the brief heat while you can. 

We'll be back down with 50s for highs during the first half of the week, which will be about ten degrees below normal. There's a chance of frost this coming Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

It still looks like it might warm up somewhat during the second half of next week.  Current projections suggest temperatures will head toward normal May levels. That's mid 60s to around 70.  Rainfall will probably stay scant for at least a week, probably more.  

The Vermont Rain Has Arrived. So Has The Cooler Air. How Cool And How Much Rain?

This cluster of daffodils in my St. Albans, Vermont
garden, photographed yesterday, to me looks like
an audience in a theater waiting for the show to start
If the show was needed rain, it started overnight. 

 The rain arrive on schedule overnight in Vermont, but it looks like we're getting cheated out of a good soaking. Which is too bad, we needed it. 

'Don't get me wrong. What rain we're getting is extremely helpful. We don't have to worry about brush and forest fires today. 

 Things are rapidly greening up, and I noticed this morning the rain gave everything an added boost. It's noticeably greener looking out my window than it was even yesterday afternoon. 

The rain soaked northern New York nicely as it lingered there late yesterday and last night. The system will get reinvigorated as it enters eastern New England, so they'll get a good soaking. 

For us in Vermont. Pfft. Through 8 a.m. rainfall tolls were only around a tenth of an inch north and central, and a closer to a quarter inch south, give or take. 

This morning's weekly U.S. Drought Monitor has halted, at least for now, an improving trend we've seen this spring in Vermont. This morning's report extends drought that had been limited to a small area near White River Junction and Springfield all the way down the Connecticut River Valley to Brattleboro. 

Southern Vermont remains abnormally dry, while northern Vermont is still out of any trouble. I don't think we're going to return to the severe drought we had last summer and fall, but as Lynn Anderson sang, "Along with the sunshine, there's got to be a little rain sometime." 

It was still raining a little in northern Vermont as of 9 a.m. and showers should continue through the day. So what I gave you isn't the final totals.  We also still have an unsettled weather pattern to look forward to, but it doesn't look that wet, at least initially. 

THE SET UP

The cooler weather pattern is getting established, as we've been talking about all week. 

The core of the cooler air seems to want to mostly center itself near the Great Lakes. That region will be colder relative to average than we are here in Vermont. Forecasts can change, but for now, it looks like we'll  be cooler than average for a few days. 

We might temporarily get some near normal temperatures for early next week. Maybe even a couple degrees warmer than average if we're lucky. Then temperatures will probably slide back down toward slightly cooler than average later in the week.  

But it's not looking like we will get super cold for May. It's also appears we won't get much rain over the next few days. But the pace of that rainfall might pick up later next week. 

THE DETAILS

Today

Sorry if today is your only day off this week.  It's by far the worst weather day of the week.   The mild, sunny weather is so, so over. At least for awhile. 

Even it it doesn't rain much more today, skies will remain cloudy, there will always be a risk of a shower and temperatures should stay in the cool 50s. 

A few showers should keep going tonight, but they'll be mostly light and mostly in the hills and mountains. Some snow could fall above 2,000 feet in elevation, but it won't amount to much. 

Friday

Actually, not bad! We're a little more optimistic about tomorrow than we were earlier this week. We can expect a fair amount of sun, mixed with clouds especially over the mountains. There could be some isolated light showers, but they'll be brief and over or near the mountains. 

Highs should get into the low 50s for most  of us. That's about 10 degrees colder than average. Cold just ain't what it used to be earlier this spring. 

It's getting to the time of  year when forecasters mention frost and freezes. The National Weather Service regards May 1 as the start of the growing season in the Champlain Valley. With that, I'm guessing they could issue a frost advisory for the valley tomorrow night. The rest of Vermont won't see any advisories because the growing season there hasn't "officially" started.

But it will be in the low to mid 30s in the Champlain Valley and near 30 elsewhere. You'll want to take sensitive plants indoors. Whatever is growing in your perennial garden should be fine, though, despite the expected frost. 

Saturday/Sunday

Similar to Friday, but with a few more clouds in the afternoon and a slightly greater chance of light afternoon showers.  Sunday should also be partly sunny with a very slight chance of light showers, mainly over the hills. Highs should make it into the low and mid 50s both days.  So, an OK weekend, really. 

Next Week

The weather pattern will reinforce itself with a new Canadian cold front. South winds ahead of the front should warm us back up into the 60s.  A dip in the jet stream should stay centered near the Great Lakes next week ,hence the relatively colder air there.

This arrangement means there will be a south to southwest flow of air over us. That would slow down that cold front somewhere over the Northeast, 

For us, that means it won't be particularly warm, but the pattern  opens the door to small storms coming at us from the southwest. That might mean somewhat more substantial rains.  Nothing scary, but we have the potential for a needed soaker or two. Stay tuned to see whether that actually pans out. 

The dip in the jet stream might shift east somewhat later in the week, which would cool us in New England down again. 

Big Early Season Cold Snap Set To Invade Eastern U.S. Here in Vermont, Frequent Light Rain/Snow

A cold overcast over St. Albans, Vermont Thursday.
The weather pattern over the next several days
will feature frequent bouts of rain and snow. 

For us Vermonters, an incoming bout of winter-ish weather is par for the November course here in the Great Soon-To-Be-White north. 

For much of the rest of the eastern United States, this cold snap might end up being one for the record books. 

The blast of chilly air from Canada looks like it will be much stronger and widespread than is usual for November. 

By Tuesday morning, places as far south as Florida could see morning frosts. In central Florida, the forecast low Tuesday in Orlando is 40 degrees. The normal low there this time of year is around 60. 

Further north around Jacksonville, Florida, they're expecting near record highs in the mid-80s this weekend, followed by near record lows in the mid-30s by Tuesday. 

Across the interior Southeast, they're bracing for hard freezes early next week. 

Further north, snow will be widespread starting Sunday and heading into early next week. There should be flakes in the air from Minnesota to Maine, and south to the Ohio River Valley and central Appalachians. 

Most places won't get much snow. Just a pre-winter tease. But an exception will be areas near the Great Lakes. The lake effect snow machine might get off to an early start with this cold wave. There's potential for several inches of snow well south of Buffalo, New York, and south of Watertown, New York.

Another area that could get a fair amount of snow are the upper elevations of northern New England and the Laurentian Mountains in Quebec.  Some mountain peaks could get six or more inches on top of the snow then already have.

More on that in the Vermont section below.

Widespread cold waves like this are getting a bit more rare, thanks to climate change. Record highs are still far outpacing record lows.

But, given the correct alignment of the jet stream, you can get widespread cold weather. You need a big southward dip in the jet stream, deeper than most cold spells. That's what's setting up for the next few days in the eastern United States. 

I don't know how many cities will experience record lows with this Arctic outbreak. The last time I saw a big blast of record cold air hitting the nation was an unprecedented snowstorm and cold snap along the Gulf Coast last January 21-22.

The cold wave coming in within the next few days won't be as bonkers as that spell in January, but since people aren't accustomed to the cold, it will be super noticeable. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Like many recent record winter cold snaps (Like the Texas freeze in 2021 and the already mentioned Gulf Coast snow and cold last winter), the core of the coldest air relative to normal should sweep mostly to our west and south.

We'll briefly get into the coldest air Tuesday, but for the most part, we just have an extended spell of somewhat colder than normal, unsettled but not extreme weather to deal with here in the Green Mountain State.

We have a series of middling storms coming through, including a complicated mess Sunday into Tuesday. 

A quick hitting cold front is coming through today. We'll have some strong south winds in the Champlain Valley. Rain will come in this afternoon. It'll be pretty light, with just a few hundredth of an inch in some valleys with maybe a quarter inch in the north and mountains. 

Some mountain summits will get some snow. 

We'll get a break between storms tomorrow, with just sort of cloudy to partly sunny weather and temperatures up near 50 degrees - not bad for this time of year. 

Another storm will come in Sunday. In northern Vermont, precipitation might start as snow before switching to rain. 

Things get complicated Monday, as maybe a second storm could move northward along the New England coast. At this point, things should stay mostly rain in Vermont on Monday. 

The coldest air will come in Tuesday, and we should have some snow showers across Vermont, even in the valleys. It's still unclear how much snow will fall, but it's beginning to look like most areas will get at least a little. 

I imagine Burlington will get its first trace of snow of the season either Sunday or Tuesday. 

The first trace of snow of the season will be late in Burlington. The average first snowflake is on October 15. 

If Burlington gets an inch of snow on Tuesday, that would actually be a bit early. The average date of the first inch of snow is November 17. The earliest one inch snow on record was on October 9, 1979. 

The snow will keep piling up in the mountains over the next few days. There's already 13 inches of snow atop Mount Mansfield, and they'll have at least six more inches by Tuesday night. 

Killington Ski Resort is contemplating opening for the season during the middle of next week. 

After Tuesday, temperatures will moderate some, but still stay below normal. 

We'll get into an unfortunate, long lasting weather pattern that should feature a near-constant northwest flow of air. That will keep temperatures near to below normal for at least most of next week, if not beyond.

Such a weather pattern also means the frequent weather disturbances that come through won't have much moisture to deal with. That could spell below normal precipitation, especially in southern Vermont. 

We're still in a drought, so we need the wet storms. Aside from a possible decent rainfall Sunday and Monday, it looks like we're kinda out of luck.   

Cold Vermont Morning As Anticipated, Next Up, A Very Normal Couple Of Days

A cool, breezy October day on Metcalf Pond near
East Fairfield, Vermont Thursday ahead of last night's
growing season-ending freeze.

As expected, pretty much everyone in Vermont had a frost and freeze this morning. 

Almost everybody in Vermont was in the upper 20s as dawn broke this morning. Burlington, in the Banana Belt Champlain Valley hit 32 degrees for the first time this autumn. 

That's just two days later than the average date of the first freeze of the fall. We've had warm autumns lately, so this morning's freeze in Burlington was the earliest since 2019.

Given the last spring freeze in Burlington was on April 21, that leaves us with a 2025 growing season lasting 172 days. That's a little longer than the average of 158 days. 

Usually, on calm, cold clear mornings in and around Vermont, temperatures are all over the place.  One town could be near 20 while another a dozen miles up the road could be in the mid-30s.

This time, the readings were quite uniform. Almost all major reporting stations were at 27 or 28 degrees at 7 a.m. An exception was Bennington, at 24 degrees.

Due to the warming influence of Lake Champlain, I'm sure much of Grand Isle County missed out on a frost and freeze. Especially since the lake is warmer than normal for this time of year. At 7 a.m. Burton Island, off of St. Albans Point, was at 41 degrees.

If you managed to save your garden plants or brought some inside like we did, you have a little time left to enjoy. Aside from some frost in the normal cold hollows tonight, the next chance of a frost or freeze is next Wednesday night, and even that is super iffy. 

Today will warm up sharply, with highs within a few degrees either side of 60, which is close to average for this time of year. The sun will make it feel even nicer. 

Saturday looks like terrific as well, with sunshine and highs in the 60s for most of us. The record heat we had earlier this week is long gone, and it's not coming back anytime soon. 

You'll see clouds coming in Sunday, which would be in advance of a strong nor'easter along the East Coast.

I'm doing a separate post on that storm later this morning, because it's such a biggie. That separate post will include how it will affect us here in Vermont. But a spoiler: For the Green Mountain State, unlike other places, that nor'easter could do more good than harm.  

Stick A Fork In It, Garden Season Ends Tonight For Almost Everybody In Vermont

Agapanthus, an orange tree and other tropical plants on
my St. Albans, Vermont deck need to come in today
amid a freeze warning tonight. Other plants, like the 
half dead thing in the blue pot, will just be
abandoned to the frost, as the gardening 
season ends tonight amid subfreezing temperatures. 

 Well, this day had to come eventually. 

Your gardening days in Vermont are pretty much over. Until next spring. 

The biggest freeze of the season is on our doorstep, and from now on the only gardening the vast majority of us will be doing for the rest of the season is fall cleanup and storage.

 I've got some heavy lifting to do today as the orange tree, the hibiscus and several agapanthus plants in heavy pots that are on my deck all need to come indoors today. 

Who knew an autumn freeze would turn into a nice gym workout?

Anyway, it should get below freezing everywhere in Vermont except places right next to Lake Champlain. 

A freeze warning is in effect for the entire state, except the Northeast Kingdom, where the growing season ended with freezes earlier this autumn. And Grand Isle County, which is surrounded by the warm waters of Lake Champlain.

Even in Grand Isle County,  the National Weather Service is thinking about issuing a frost advisory for tonight, as temperatures might get close enough to the freezing mark to worry about frost. 

Most, but not all of us escaped a frost or freeze last night because clouds and wind kept up most of the night.  But you can tell the cold air is flooding in by looking at the mountains. 

As of 6 a.m., the summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire was just 16 degrees, with a northwest wind gusting to 66 mph.  They're living up to their "world's worst weather" reputation.

The summit of Vermont's Mount Mansfield was down to 25 degrees at 6 a.m. Clouds might have left some rime ice at the summit. Skies cleared at dawn so you should take a peak at the Green Mountain summits. The tops might be white with ice.

Today will be bright and cool for your garden Emergency Frost Harvest. Sunshine won't help warm things up too much as actual temperatures struggle into the low 50s and a gusty northwest wind will add to the chill.

Tonight is a perfect setup for cold temperatures. The air will be dry, the wind will die down to calm, and the sky will stay clear. Which means you'll almost definitely be scraping ice off your windshield tomorrow morning. 

After our stretch of record October warmth, Montpelier could actually get to or at least close to a record low for the date tomorrow. Their record low for Friday is 24, and that's the expected low temperatures there. 

Any record lows won't be widespread, though. Most other towns and cities in and near Vermont should stay three to five degrees above record lows for tomorrow's date. 

Montpelier's forecast notwithstanding, this cold wave is not all that unusual for the first half of October. Though with climate change, it's been a few years since it's gotten this cold this early in the season. 

Another warmup is coming, starting Friday afternoon. But instead of record warmth, we're still looking at merely average temperatures. Heading through the weekend and into next week, that means lows within a few degrees of 40 and highs in the low 60s. 

Notice I didn't mention drought. There's too much to talk about there in this post, so look for an  update later this morning on that. Spoiler: The new U.S. Weekly Drought Report comes out this morning, and there has been some changes to the forecast for Sunday and Monday. 

A Welcomed Drencher In Vermont After Record October Heat. But Drought Continues, And A Freeze Tomorrow Night, Too

Some pretty clouds early Tuesday morning over St.
Albans, Vermont were the first sign of some welcome
rain that hit Vermont overnight. Many places had
well over an inch of rain, but that won't be 
nearly enough to mitigate our serious drought. 

The weird Vermont October heat wave is decidedly over, drowned by a cold front that brought some extremely welcomed and locally heavy rain to the region. 

The heat did hang on for one more day on Tuesday before the rain moved in. 

I'm not aware of any more record highs in Vermont Tuesday, but several places got above 80 degrees. Burlington had its fourth consecutive 80+ reading before the clouds and rain arrived.

I had been reporting that four 80 degree days in a row would be a record long streak for such warmth in Burlington, but I was mistaken. 

There was also a four consecutive day stretch of 80 degree weather from October 16-20, 1947. So I stand corrected. We did tie that record though. 

Rainfall was gloriously generous in at least some parts of Vermont overnight.  Burlington had 1.63 inches, and my unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans filled up to 1.77 inches. 

As of 8 a.m., it was still raining at a pretty good clip in central and southern Vermont, but through that hour, Montpelier had so far accumulated 1.42 inches, St. Johnsbury 1.3 inches and Rutland 1.85 inches. A few lucky spots near and west of the Green Mountains might have rainfall totals near two inches.  

Bennington and Springfield had an inch or less of rain through 8 a.m., but one more patch of fairly heavy rain was about to go through both communities as of this writing. 

This marvelous rain will probably prevent the drought from continuing to get worse for a few days, but will by no means end it. We need inches and inches of rain over a few months to really soak through and recharge the ground water, and once again make our forests too wet to burn.  

Before the rains came, there were some new reports Tuesday of brush fires in Vermont. A pretty good sized one was reported in Bakersfield Tuesday. Some outbuildings were reported damaged. 

To demonstrate how one rain storm cannot erase a drought, there were reports of some minor rekindles of Bakersfield fire early this morning, despite the drenching overnight rains. 

Unfortunately, it looks like there's very little rain in our immediate future. More on that in a bit

FROST/FREEZE

The rain was exiting Vermont as of mid-morning.  There could be a few light showers in the mountains this afternoon and evening, but that won't amount to anything. As cold air rushes in, there could even be a few snowflakes on some of the summits tonight. It's that time of year, folks!

It will be cool today, but since we started the day still on the warm-ish side, we will manage to reach the 50s to around 60 this afternoon. 

Tonight will not actually be the coldest night of this seasonable October cool snap, but if you have plants out there, you probably should try to protect them.

Thursday will be bright and chilly. Sunshine and crisp air in the 50s, with some upper 40s in northern hilly areas. This should make it feel like autumn has finally, belatedly arrived.

Thursday night and Friday will bring the end of the growing season to all of us except maybe some places right along the shore of Lake Champlain. 

I think almost everybody will be at or below freezing by dawn Friday. As for your gardens, I guess it's time to stick a fork in it. Most places away from the Champlain Valley will get into the 20s, with maybe something close to 20 degrees in the coldest hollows.

The average date of the first autumn freeze in Burlington is around October 8, so it looks like this year will be pretty close to average.

After Friday morning, temperatures will rise to seasonable levels and stay that way into next week. That means daily lows near 40 and highs in the low 60s, give or take. 

MISSED RAIN OPPORTUNITY

A very wet, kind of strong nor'easter looks like it wants to get going along the Mid-Atlantic Coast this weekend, giving areas along the coast from the Carolinas to Long Island some heavy rain. 

Usually, such a setup would mean rain for us in Vermont, too. But the latest in a series of big, dry, honking high pressure systems looks like it wants to stall nearby or just north of us, as so many similar systems have done since August. 

That high will probably prevent the nor'easter from bringing much if any rain our way. Some but definitely not all runs of the American computer model do manage to  bring rain from this system our way. The other computer models keep us dry, because they predict the Big Honking High will block the storm from moving north and then deflect it southeastward out to sea. 

Most experienced meteorologists are going with the drier forecast in this case. 

That would leave us with another long dry spell, and an opportunity for the drought to start worsening again.  

Record Heat To End In Northeast and Canada, Though Despite Rain, Vermont/New England Drought To Continue

A person sunbathes amid record October heat Monday at
Sandbar State Park in Milton, Vermont on Lake Champlain
As you can see, the lake is incredibly low due to the
ongoing drought. 

Here in the Champlain Valley, we awoke this Tuesday morning to temperatures in the mid-60s, which is a little on the warm side for July, never mind October.  

True, the rest of Vermont was a little cooler than that, but we're still in bizarro world with the hot October weather. At least until tonight. 

On Monday, more record highs with this extreme heat wave hit Vermont, and many other areas of the Northeast and southeast Canada as well. 

We can confirm these records in Vermont:

84 in Burlington, besting the old record of 82 degrees

Montpelier reached 82 degrees, exceeding the old record of 79. 

St. Johnsbury reached 85, beating the old record by one degree. 

The core of the hottest air that was over our region and Quebec Sunday moved east a little, which is why much of Vermont was one or two degrees "cooler" than Sunday. The biggest record highs were in Atlantic Canada.

Now, four Canadian provinces have had all time record highs for October. The new record for Quebec was established Sunday with a temperature of 87.4 degrees in Gatineau. 

On Monday, Kouchbouguak, New Brunswick, reached 88 degrees to set a new provincial record for October. Prince Edward Island did the same, with a high of 83.7 degrees at Stanhope. Nova Scotia set a new October record with a reading of 87 degrees in Upper Stewiacke.

All-time October record highs were also set in several Maine cities, including 87 degrees in Fryburg, 86 in Augusta, 84 in Houlton and Presque Isle and 83 in Caribou. 

This has been an incredible heat wave for North America, as more than 2,000 cities and towns have set new record highs in the past six days. Some more records could well fall today in New England and far southeastern Canada.

VERMONT TODAY/TONIGHT

Things will start to change radically today here in the Green Mountain State to something more akin to normal. A long awaited cold front is about to slap us back into autumn. 

The first half today will bring more of the same. Temperatures will start to shoot up under sunny skies before noon. It could hit 80 degrees or a little more in Vermont before the clouds and rain arrive. 

I don't think we'll have record highs again today. The record highs for today are 83 in Burlington and Montpelier and 87 in St. Johnsbury. But, you never know, there could be surprises. 

Although the humidity is beginning to creep up ahead of the cold front, the winds are also increasing. Since things are so bone dry, the fire danger will be sky high today until the rain arrives,  The wind will make it worse, as the gusts would make blazes spread easily. 

That rain won't get here really until mid to late afternoon, so we have until then to worry about fires. The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation rates the fire danger as high to very high today. 

The amount of rain that's coming still looks pretty good. It will actually come down hard at times tonight. Overall, most of us should get three quarters of an inch to an inch of rain, give or take, by tomorrow morning. 

That'll tamp down the fire risk for awhile, but not end the drought by any stretch of the imagination. 

COLD AIR BLASTS IN

It's going to feel awfully cold tomorrow into Friday after the cold front goes by.  Temperatures will actually not be at all weird for October over the coming days, but this will be traditional flannel and fleece October weather. 

It'll be party cloudy tomorrow, kind of windy from the north and chilly. Highs should stay in the 50s to low 60s, which is pretty close to normal. 

The cold air will keep coming in tomorrow night. Some low clouds might leave rime ice on the mountain tops for the first time this season. Don't be surprised if the tops of mountains like Camels Hump or Mount Mansfield look a little white. A harbinger of things to come. 

Some of us will also have near our below freezing temperatures to start Thursday. Thursday itself will be bright and chilly, a classic fall day. Sunshine will barely help make it feel warmer as highs just reach the 50s. 

Thursday night and Friday morning will be the coldest so far this season. If you have avoided a frost so far this autumn, chances are your luck will run out by dawn Friday. It looks like only areas right near Lake Champlain will escape the frost. 

Many places well inland will have a hard freeze with readings definitely its the 20s. 

After that, it will warm up to near normal temperatures Friday afternoon through the weekend. That means lows near 40, highs in the low to mid 60s.  After early tomorrow, I still don't see any signs of additional rain beyond sprinkles in Vermont at least until October 17 or so.  

UPDATE: Frost Advisory Upgraded To Freeze Warning In Much Of Vermont

A frost advisory that was in effect has been upgraded
to a freeze warning for much of Vermont away 
from the Champlain Valley. The valley continues
to be under a frost advisory. 

 The frost advisory that was in effect for the majority of Vermont has been upgraded to a freeze warning.

Expected lows early Thursday morning away from Lake Champlain will be a tad cooler than first thought, which means it'll get to or a bit below 32 degrees by dawn in much of the Green Mountain State.  

Such temperatures are not at all unusual for early October, but it's been so warm that a lot of people still have outdoor plants they want to protect.

So, it's back to digging out those old sheets to cover everything you want to save this evening. And hope for the best.

The big garden coverup should happen in the Champlain Valley as well. 

A frost advisory is still in effect there, which means temperatures should get perilously close to 32 degrees there. Remember, even if it's 34 or 35 degrees five feet off the ground where you'll read your thermometer, you can still get frost at your feet, where you lingering tomato and cucumber and flower plants are. 

There's still two places in Vermont without a freeze or frost alert. One of them is the Northeast Kingdom. The growing season is considered over up there. So there's no point in issuing a freeze warning there. 

Still, if you live up that way and were trying to hang on to outdoor plants, try covering them up. Better yet, bring 'em indoors if you can because most tender plants don't survive temperatures in the upper 20s.

The other spot escaping the frost advisory is Grand Isle County. It's surrounded by Lake Champlain, so the still warm waters of the lake should radiate a bit onto the county, keeping temperatures a bit above the level that you can get frost. 

It wasn't actually that cold this afternoon, so you'd think we'd escape an overnight frost. Temperatures were in the upper 50s to near 60 in most places. But that breeze we've had will diminish to calm. Skies will be clear all night. Daytime humidity was low. All those ingredients set us up for those temperatures to plummet overnight. 

Another thing to watch out for is locally dense fog early in the morning. Lord knows there's not much moisture in the ground to contribute to any fog. But the low rivers, ponds and lakes should be enough to create fog in the river valleys early tomorrow. 

You'll want to get a bit of an early start if you have to leave before, near or just after dawn tomorrow. You'll need to scrape the ice off your windshield, and you'll have to drive slowly through those dense fog patches. 

Tomorrow will be another nice, sunny, day, a little warmer than today. There's still a risk of scattered frost tomorrow night, but it won't be as widespread as what we'll get tonight. 

A big warm up is coming this weekend and early next week, so if your gardens survive tonight, they'll have a little October life in them yet. 

Vermont, Back In Sunny Drought, Will See Temperatures Bounce Around

Henry the Weather Dog says his favorite weather is
warm, sunny weather, so he's been very happy 
lately. He's not as worried about the drought as
many Vermonters are. In this photo, he's taking
a quick break from playing with his friends
in Sunday's sunshine at a 
St. Albans, Vermont dog park. 

After our welcome rains last week, and a slow clearing trend, we're back to the sunny, drought-idled regime we've been on here in Vermont since mid-summer. 

A weak disturbance gave us some clouds Saturday, but no rain, of course. 

Sunday was beautiful and mostly sunny and oddly warm for the end of September. The high temperature in Burlington was 81 degrees, just two degrees below the record high for the date.

That band of clouds that came through midday Sunday was allegedly a cold front. It had no rain with it - again, of course. The "cold front" introduced some less humid air, which allowed temperatures to fall a little lower this morning that the very mild previous nights. 

Sunday's alleged cold front was the start of a temporary cooling trend that will reverse itself by the end of the week.  By next weekend, it'll be strangely warm again. The only constant through all this will be the daily almost wall to wall sunshine. Not great if you're sick of Vermont's deep, destructive drought. 

Today will be almost as warm as Sunday, ahead of the next cold front. That front will come through tonight with no fanfare, no rain, no nothing.  All it will do is make tomorrow feel noticeably cooler. But still mild enough for the last day of September.

BRIEF COOL SPELL

The trend will keep running cooler Wednesday through Thursday. Temperatures will actually be fairly close to normal for this time of year. Highs both days should be within a few degrees either side of 60. That's not bad, considering in the past we've sometimes seen highs in the 40s in the opening days of October. 

Even so, we'll have to worry about scattered frosts and freezes again Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday nights. It won't be anything out of the ordinary for the first days of October, but it you're hanging on to your outdoor plants, you probably will have to cover them up again. 

Much of the Champlain Valley looks like it will escape the frost, but pay attention to future forecasts in case it gets unexpectedly cool any of those nights.  

One thing that could slightly mitigate the risk of frost comes in part - believe it or not - from Hurricane Humberto and soon to be Hurricane Imelda far offshore of the East Coast. 

The contrast between those storms, and massive, dry high pressure coming down from Quebec, will stir up a north to northeast breeze. Overnight breezes might keep temperatures up just a bit.  

By the way, the forecast trend has been more and more for Humberto to tug Imelda away from the southeastern United States, so the effects of Imelda won't be nearly as bad as first feared. 

Meanwhile, back here in Vermont, that big, fat, sunny, dry high pressure will stick around. Starting Friday and even more so during the weekend, the high will shift a little to the east. 

Because of that, the cool north breezes will shift and become very light puffs of wind from the southwest. That will bring back the warm air. Despite the relative chill on the opening two days of the month, October looks like it will come in hot. 

I wouldn't be super surprised if temperatures flirt with 80 degrees once again by Sunday or early next week. That's definitely unusual but not unheard of for early October. I don't know whether the entire month of October will be warm, but the balmy weather coming up for the beginning of this October fits a recent trend.

Three of the past four Octobers - at least as measure in Burlington - were among the top ten warmest on record. Maybe we'll do it again this year. 

In terms of rain, it's still looking grim heading into October. The dry air that's become established in Vermont will erase the slight gains against the drought we saw with last week's rain. Then it will continue deepening our serious drought. 

I've been saying our next chances of rain are around October 9.  I'm not sure yet, but that needed rain is beginning to look like it might be postponed a few more days. Let's hope not! 

Scattered Vermont Frost This Morning; Even Colder Sunday Morning

Sensitive plants covered up on my St. Albans, Vermont
deck this morning as temperatures bottomed out
at 34 degrees. It should be just as cold or even a
little colder early Sunday morning, so
we'll keep those sheets handy. 

As expected, patchy frost and freezes greeted many of us Vermonters at dawn today. Low temperatures across the state were in the 30s pretty much everywhere. With the exception of some 40s right near Lake Champlain.  

That was definitely cold enough for a frost in many places. Even if it was 33 or 34 where you are,  there might well have been frost. 

Temperatures are usually measured about five feet off the ground. It often is a couple degrees colder when you get down at lawn level). 

Keep those sheets and covers handy for your outdoor plants. It's probably going to be even colder overnight tonight and early Sunday morning. 

Before we get to tonight's chill, today will be delightful.  Though with this horrible drought, I wouldn't have minded a rainy Saturday.  Instead, it'll be a crisp fall day, with bright blue skies, clean, dry air, and sunshine bringing temperatures up into the 60s. Perfect September weather, really. 

So, do you hike, do your apple picking, do your Emergency Frost Harvest in your garden (I picked something like 12 cucumbers yesterday)  and enjoy the day

You'll notice it getting colder quickly the minute the sun goes down. 

TONIGHT'S FROST/FREEZE

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says that basically, if you live five miles or more away from Lake Champlain,  expect a frost by Sunday morning. There might be couple exceptions to the rule, but they should be pretty few and far between. 

There's also a slight chance a faint southeast breeze might save the night in parts of the Champlain Valley, but don't count on it! I'd cover your outdoor plants if you want to save them. If it doesn't ultimately frost, then so what, right?

The frost advisories that were in effect for much of central and northern Vermont this morning are being expanded to cover all of Vermont tonight except the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. Grand Isle County is the only region in the state not covered by the frost advisory.

The morning, a freeze warning for actual temperatures below 32 degrees covered only Essex County in Vermont in the extreme Northeast Kingdom.  The Adirondacks and far northern New Hampshire were also under this morning's freeze warning. 

Overnight and Sunday morning, the freeze warning will cover much more real estate, covering roughly everything along and east of the Green Mountains and along and north of Route 2. 

Part of the reason why it will be so cold tonight is the drought. Moisture in the air would keep temperatures a couple degrees warmer. Some moisture would have come from wet soils and that sort of thing.  But since everything is so parched, there's little moisture, so it will get colder.

The other ingredients for tonight's added chill is temperatures this afternoon will be a little cooler than on Friday. So the starting point is lower when the temperatures start to drop this evening. The air is even drier than it was Friday, so that will allow readings to crash pretty hard. And the entire overnight will be clear and calm, with no winds or clouds to halt the drop in temperatures.  

COLD IN PERSPECTIVE

This degree of chill in a Vermont mid-September isn't the least bit odd.  It might seem that way given the balmy Septembers we've had in most recent years. Thanks, climate change. 

Temperatures Sunday morning will not come close to any record lows. Burlington's record low Sunday is 29, and the forecast minimum temperature tomorrow is in the mid-30s. The record low Sunday in Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury is 26 degrees.  Lows in those three communities early Sunday are expected to be around 30 degrees.  

The first freeze of the season in Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury is, on average between October 2 and 4 or so.  So if it's under 32 degrees Sunday morning, the first autumn freeze will be earlier than average this year.

But it won't be close to record early by any means. Freezes have happened as early as September 8 in Rutland, September 5 in Montpelier and September 13 in St. Johnsbury. Burlington's earliest freeze was on September 13, 1964.  It's not expected to get to 32 degrees there tonight. 

BIG WARMUP, DROUGHT STAYS

The September cold spell will end dramatically during the day Sunday. Temperatures will rocket upward into the low or even mid 70s by afternoon. That's a pretty incredible 12-hour rise in temperatures. 

The frost risk will disappear for about a week at least, as temperatures stay at or above normal through the upcoming week. 

There are some chances of showers coming up, but the expected rainfall looks pretty lame at this point. Enough rain could fall Tuesday to temporarily tamp down the forest fire danger for a couple or few days, but that's it. 

As of now, early guesses are we might get a quarter inch or so of rain. That won't be nearly enough to get ground water back in gear, or noticeably raise water levels in rivers and lakes. 

The overall weather pattern continues to feature a series of dry high pressure systems bursting into New England, with each one stopping to linger overhead for at least a couple days. I don't see any soaking rains going into early October. And probably beyond. 

The drought is probably already the worst I've seen in my 60+ years in Vermont. And it looks like it will probably get even worse before it gets better.  ,

Fire And Ice: Risk Of Wildfires Today, Frosts And Freezes Tonight, Tomorrow Night

Very low water along the Brewster River in 
Jeffersonville, Vermont this week. High pressure
today and tomorrow is raising the risk of frost,
continuing the drought and keeping
a high forest fire danger going. 

 As expected, a cold front blew through last night, and even as the sun was breaking through the clouds this morning, temperatures were still falling. 

The cold air lagged, and it was still unexpectedly kind of mild this morning. It was still 70 degrees in Burlington at midnight and near 60 at dawn. 

But, as we go through the day, temperatures will struggle to get into the 60s this afternoon. 

It actually rained in a few spots overnight, too, though the word "rain" is probably a bit strong here.  Sprinkles came down in Burlington. 

Here in St. Albans, we were a particular "wet" spot with a whopping 0.01 inches of rain. 

Those paltry amounts of course make no difference with our deep drought. As the day goes on, skies will clear, winds will stay breezy from the north, and humidity will crash to low levels once again.  

That's a recipe for increased fire danger. Since everything out there is parched, any spark could trigger a wildfire. "If any fires were to start, the weather and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of control and be difficult to contain," the National Weather Service announced in a special weather statement that's in effect today. 

The Vermont Department of Forests, Parks and Recreation has rated the fire danger as high for the past week or so. For today, they've upgraded the risk to very high. 

FROST/FREEZE

The cool breezes will calm down tonight. Skies will stay clear, and the low humidity will allow temperatures to drop. We're in for the most widespread frosts of the season so far. 

A freeze warning is in effect overnight and early Saturday morning for Essex County, Vermont, in the far corner of the Northeast Kingdom. The freeze warning is also up for the Adirondacks, far northern New Hampshire and northwest Maine. In those places, the temperature will fall to between 25 and 30 degrees, so that will definitively end the growing season in those places.

Here in Vermont, a frost advisory is up for everybody in the northern half of Vermont except the Champlain Valley.  Temperatures will fall to between 30 to 35 degrees in these areas by dawn Saturday.  You'll want to bring in vulnerable plants, or cover them up with sheets and such to protect them.  

Or, if you have a vegetable garden, today would be an excellent day for what I call your Emergency Frost Harvest, in which you can take in anything that is vulnerable. Grab those tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers while you can! 

There's no frost advisory in southern Vermont yet, but I expect quite a few patches of frost down there, too.  

Keep those sheets handy, because you'll need them Saturday night and early Sunday. Saturday will be a bright, cool, crisp, autumnal day. The fire danger will still be around, as humidity levels will be even lower than today. But Saturday's winds will be light, so that will minimize the spread of any wildfires. 

If anything, Saturday night and the hours around dawn Sunday might be even colder than tonight. There might even be some frost in the Champlain Valley well away from the lake.   It depends on whether any late night light breezes kick in or not. 

After Sunday morning, temperatures will turn warmer again, so the frost threat will go away for now. If your plants survive the frost this weekend, they'll last into October. The overall weather pattern will lean warm through then. 

Of course, your plants might not survive the ongoing drought. It's not really going to get any better.  

WEAK RAIN PROSPECTS

The good news is looks like it's finally going to rain next week. We think, anyway. The bad news is the amount of rain will be completely inadequate to help in any meaningful way with the drought.  

But, at least some rain is in the forecast. The predictions are iffy, but early guesses give us a tenth to a third of an inch of precipitation next Tuesday through Thursday. That's far short of what we need, but we'll take anything.  At least a lame rain would minimize the fire danger temporarily. 

We'll have more details on next week's rain chances as we get closer to the potential weather system. 

Vermont Frost/Freeze Prospects Increasing For Friday, Saturday Nights

There's a good chance at least some of us will see
a frost or freeze in Vermont early Saturday morning
and again early Sunday morning. Not everyone
will get that cold. So far, the Champlain
Valley looks safe, but we'll update as 
information becomes available. 

On top of the droughts, we now have to worry about frosts and freezes.

Though I suppose on the bright side, a risk of a frost is very normal for this time of year in Vermont. 

For once, it's not another weird weather thing being plopped down our plate. 

I'll skip the drought news in this particular post. I want to wait until the latest U.S. Drought Monitor comes out later this morning, so watch this space for a big drought update before noon today.

FROST CHANCES

So, OK, let's get into the frost prospects. 

I'll start with a spoiler: Not everyone will see their growing seasons end this weekend. But the frost will be more widespread than anything we've seen yet this early autumn season 

Judging by how things will feel out there today, you wouldn't think a frost risk. It'll feel like the Good Old Summertime with highs in many warmer valleys topping 80 degrees. During droughts, the lack of moisture can make daytime highs warmer than they would be had it been wetter. 

Which means there's a chance that today's high temperatures could over-perform. I wouldn't be shocked if some warmer valley reach the mid-80s.  That would be just a couple degrees short of record highs for this time of year. 

Not only do droughts make hot days hotter, they can make cold nights colder. Moisture coming up from the ground can blunt falling temperatures through higher humidity and fog, especially this time of year. A lack of moisture can allow temperatures to fall further than they otherwise might on calm, clear nights. 

That might be the case this weekend. 

The trigger for the upcoming chilly nights is a cold front due to come through tonight.  As we've kept saying, the most we can expect out of the front is some scattered sprinkles and patches of drizzle overnight and early Friday. 

Tomorrow itself will really feel like autumn has arrived. Highs will stay in the 60s as skies clear during the day.  A brisk north breeze will add to the autumnal feel of a classic crisp fall day. Saturday will be like that, too.

The problem is the nights. With the low humidity, temperatures will crash Friday night. A light breeze might keep temperatures pretty uniform, but those temperatures will be cold. Scattered frost is possible almost anywhere in Vermont away from the Champlain Valley, as it looks now. 

Even away from Lake Champlain, not everyone will see a frost. If you're in a place that gets frosts while other nearby places don't, you'll probably get a frost Saturday morning. And Sunday morning. If you usually don't get an autumn frost when everybody else does, chances are you'll be safe. 

The coldest hollows will see a hard freeze. Saranac Lake, New York is forecasting lows as chilly as 26 degrees.

Frost and freeze advisories haven't been issued yet. The National Weather Service will do that when we get closer to the event.  But get ready to protect your plants. 

After a crisp, beautiful cool, autumnal Saturday, we'll have a similar frost/freeze situation overnight Saturday and early Sunday. 

After that, it'll warm right back up again. Highs Sunday through maybe next Wednesday should get into the 70s again in many places. 

I'll have an update on this frost situation tomorrow morning.