Chilly Morning In Vermont; Even Colder Start To The New Week. Garden Killer?

These vibrant flowers in my window boxes in St.
Albans, Vermont might not be so vibrant after the
upcoming cold weather Monday and Tuesday. 

OK, Saturday was just perfect in Vermont. Deep blue skies, crisp air, gorgeous foliage. Probably the best autumn weather day of the year. 

As expected, we had a clear, cold night in Vermont, typical for early October. Most places saw a dawn with temperatures in the 30s. A few spots in western Vermont were in the 40s. In those places, the first stirrings of some south winds flushed some of the cool air out. 

TODAY

Today, the south winds will pick up. High clouds will increase, too, but it will still be a nice day. Highs will get into the 60s. So if you missed yesterday, you still have a decent day today. 

Then we get into hard core autumn tomorrow with a slight hint of winter. 

MONDAY

Our cold, blustery cold front is still on schedule for Monday morning. It might have some light showers near and along it, but that's not the story. It'll come through in the morning, and by afternoon, we'll know that autumn is getting serious. 

Temperatures during the day will stay steady or fall through the 50s. Winds will pick up from the northwest, gusting to 30 or 35 mph in spots. Leaves will fly through the air, the temperature will drop. There could even be a snowflake or two at the mountain summits.

 It won't exactly be wintry, but close enough. The weather will have a bite to it. Or, depending on your attitude toward winter, it will just bite. 

Do your emergency frost harvests in the gardens, and take in your sensitive plants for the upcoming winter. 

I'm getting all dramatic here, but in the grand scheme of things, this isn't all that unusual. We do get these early October cold snaps from time to time. We're not used to it, given our recent warm Octobers. 

It's been far worse this time of year. A large, damaging snowstorm hit large parts of Vermont and New York on this date in 1987. In 1965, Burlington's high temperatures on October 4 and 5 were in the 30s. So yes, it could be much tougher than what we're predicting for Monday and Tuesday. 

TUESDAY

The day will start cold, but not the typical calm, frosty start we often see this time of year. The wind will have kept blowing all night. Some areas will wake up to a freeze, one that is virtually frost-freeze but most certainly still a garden killer. 

The rest of the day will be quite cool, but calmer than Monday. And sunnier. Highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50. 

Tuesday night will feature calm winds, clear skies and cold temperatures. Most places in Vermont should get to near or below freezing. Some areas right near Lake Champlain will probably escape the frost. But, for the most part, those of us who haven't had our first frost of the season.

REST OF WEEK

It'll be a quiet period with generally partly to mostly sunny daytimes, with seasonable highs in the low to mid 60s.  The only chance of rain might come at the end of the week, with light, isolated showers as a lame little disturbances comes through. 

That's great news for the leaf peepers vacationing in Vermont. Or for those of us who like to drive the back roads this time of year to look at the foliage. In some years, big storms strip the foliage from the trees, cutting short the best of the season. Not this year. 

Foliage season will eventually end, but not this week. 

Rain Misses Most Of Vermont Again, Beautiful Day Today, Brief Cold Snap Early Week

A nice sunset after a dark, rainy day in St. Albans, 
Vermont on Friday. While far northwestern Vermont
got some decent rains, the showers largely
missed most of the rest of the state. 

 Yesterday's cold front only managed to bring substantial rain to far northwestern Vermont. 

My unofficial rain gauge up in St. Albans caught a very nice 1.02 inches of rain. Burlington had a respectable 0.49. But everywhere else - pfft.  

We knew southeastern Vermont would miss out, but central parts of the state did, too. Montpelier managed to receive just 0.16 inches. St. Johnsbury and Rutland had less than a tenth of an inch.

Very little rain is in the cards for the next week. Most of us need the rain, but we're still going to have to wait awhile for it. 

On the bright side, the rest of today will be, well, bright. A perfect fall day, really. Head out to leaf peep, but stay off the traditional tourist roads - they'll be jammed for sure. 

Highs should reach within either side of 60 degrees. The cool air will prompt frost in some areas tonight, but I think the Champlain Valley is mostly safe. For now. That'll change soon. More on that in a bit. 

TOMORROW

Another nice one. Patchy fog and frost early in the day, as is traditional in Vermont for early October.  We might have some clouds come in during the afternoon, but overall it will be pleasant, with highs in the 60s. 

MONDAY

Here's where things take a cold turn. A cold front will come through in the morning. It won't have much moisture to work with, but it will be a very dynamic system which could be enough to set off some light showers. 

But the real news is the blast of cold air coming in. Depending on when the cold front actually comes through, at least part of the day will prove to be a windy, cold day. You're going to want to dig some of your warmer clothes out from the back of the closet. This will be no means be record-setting, but it will be our first minimal hint of winter. 

The timing of the front will determine when it gets cold on Monday. Early guesses are that temperatures will fall through the 50s in the afternoon. 

By evening, temperatures will be crashing, northwest winds could gust to 30 mph. Home heaters and wood stoves will go on for the first time this autumn. The last vestiges of the cold front's moisture could throw a few snowflakes onto the mountain summits, or coat the stunted trees atop those mountains with a bit of rime ice. 

Monday will be a very good day to put on your warm coat and do an emergency frost harvest in your garden. For most places, except right near Lake Champlain, will very likely see the growing season decidedly end. Your garden will be a wilted mess by either Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

TUESDAY

Winds will continue to blow Monday night. The winds will prevent frost, but a lot of places will get below freezing, so that would kill remaining garden plants. 

During the day, the wind will continue to blow, adding a wind chill to the air. But the sun will be out. Call it a chilly fall day. Highs will stay in the low 50s, give or take. 

Tuesday night will go below freezing everywhere except maybe right near Lake Champlain.  Colder spots will go well into the 20s. 

REST OF NEXT WEEK

A warming trend. Nothing wild. Just back up to near normal temperatures. We'll have at least some sun every day, and there's a good chance most if not all days Wednesday through Friday will be at least partly sunny, if not clear. 

The cold snap and wind Monday and Tuesday probably will have ended the foliage season up in the Northeast Kingdom, but the rest of the state should be dressed very nicely in fall colors. The good think about a lack of storms is that high winds and heavy rain won't be around to strip off the leaves before we get a good look at them.  

Showers Dampening Vermont Ahead Of Classic Autumn Weekend

Early autumn calls starting to show under an overcast 
skies near Georgia, Vermont Thursday.  Clouds were
thicker than forecast yesterday. 

The weather forecasts seemed to be creaky lately.  

I'm not dissing National Weather Service meteorologists, they're working super hard. They're professional and dedicated 

But I think Trump-inspired cuts to the NWS might be interfering with picky details in the computer models. Not enough data is hitting those computer thingamajigs. 

Which might be creating more than picky mistakes in some weather forecasts.

I don't have any proof of this. And I know I'm oversimplifying a potential problem here.  Weather forecasts are almost never 100 percent accurate. Nature does what nature does. Nature still holds some secrets that meteorologists and other scientists haven't uncovered yet. 

But it seems that in the past week, forecast misses have been coming almost every day.   I hope somebody out there is researching the effects of Trump's cuts to the NWS and science in general to see that's all messing with weather forecasting

This rant is inspired by yesterday's weather. Broad brush, the forecast was correct. It was supposed to be relatively warm, relatively humid for this time of year, and that's what happened. 

But it was still cooler than forecast - near 70 instead of well up in the 70s.  Instead of variable cloudiness a thick, dark overcast hung over at least parts of Vermont for a good portion of the day, mostly in the afternoon. 

Now, what's going on with the weather over the next couple of days looks pretty straight-forward, so I have hopes that the forecasts for the next couple of days will turn out pretty accurate. Let's get into it: 

TODAY

Dawn broke today much like a sort of muggy July morning. Temperatures at 6 a.m. were in the mid to upper 60s in most spots. Montpelier was at 70 degrees. Rutland was at 71. 

Don't worry, it won't be a hot day, far from it. A cold front was making its way into Vermont early this  morning with a batch of showers. 

I think this would have been an almost dry cold frontal passage, if not for Hurricane Polo. That hurricane came ashore early this week a zillion miles away from us in Mexico's Baja California. 

But its remnants spread flooding rains into the Desert Southwest and Plains, and injected moisture along the front all the way up into our neck of the woods. 

Unfortunately for those of us who want and need a  lot of rain, this won't be the moment. The front is moving fast enough so that it won't have time to deposit much rain here. 

Most of us will receive a half inch or less. Storm totals will be maybe a quarter inch in many areas, give or take.Southern Vermont, especially the southeast, will probably get less than a tenth of an inch. 

The fast movement of the cold front will mean rain should pretty much be over in northwest Vermont by early afternoon, and mid to late afternoon elsewhere. 

Temperatures should hold steady or fall for the rest of the day as cooler air comes in and mostly cloudy skies linger after the bulk of the run has ended.

SATURDAY

We're still looking at a classic autumn day.  We'll have bright sunshine under blue skies. with highs within a few degrees either side of 60 degrees. Perfect conditions for leaf peeping, pumpkin shopping, fall festivals, you name it. 

Watch out for frost overnight. Carry in your sensitive plants that are still out there.  All my sensitive tropical-ish plants on my deck are coming in, mostly because of what's coming next week. More on that in a bit. 

SUNDAY

The day will start with patchy fog and frost. Here's a hint for leaf peepers and photographers: Get out there early, while it's still foggy. There's something magical about the sun breaking through the fog amid the multi-colored tree.s

Some clouds will come in during the day, but it will still be nice. Highs should get into the low 60s. Maybe mid-60s in the warmer valleys. 

MONDAY

A sharp cold front will come through, with maybe a few showers and more solid blast of chilly air. Highs should only reach the 50s as gusty northwest winds blowing through. The day could start out relatively mild, but it should turn out to be a cold day.  I wouldn't even be surprised if a few snow flurries grace the mountain peaks. 

Monday night will be cold, with a potentially widespread freeze, except right near Lake Champlain. 

TUESDAY

Another prematurely chilly day. Early guesses are the sun will be out, but highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. This isn't incredibly cold for early October -  we've had highs in the upper 30s to near 40 this time of year.  

But it will be a shock to the system. Especially since recent Octobers have been so warm. On the same dates that this cool snap will hit, it was in the 80s last year. 

Frost Advisories In Vermont Tonight, Including Champlain Valley

Areas in blue are under a frost advisory tonight. The
Northeast Kingdom is not under the advisory because
the growing season has ended up there. But that 
region of the state will also deal with frosts 

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington this afternoon hoisted frost advisories for large swaths of Vermont tonight and very early Wednesday. 

Areas that might find at least a little frost early tomorrow morning are the Champlain Valley excluding the islands and central Vermont and the central Green Mountains. 

The Northeast Kingdom isn't under any advisories because their growing season is considered over. But up there, it'll be probably be at or below freezing in some spots, and near freezing in others.

This morning, I said that the Champlain Valley was probably safe from frost.  However, it became apparent this afternoon that the air is so dry, it will cool off rapidly this evening, which brings the risk into play. 

I still think frost in the Champlain Valley of Vermont will be very hit and miss, especially west of Route 7, which is closer to the lake. Still, anywhere in the frost advisory zone, it's probably a good idea to cover up tender plants or bring them indoors for the night. 

Despite it being slightly warmer tomorrow afternoon, there could be another frost risk tomorrow night, so keep those old sheets handy for the plants. 

Autumn Cool Weather To Make a VERY Noticeable Arrival In Vermont Over The Next Several Days

Photo of Hard'ack Hill in St Albans taken yesterday, a
beautiful, cool-ish September Day. If I told you I'd taken
this photo in July, you'd believe me, as the trees are 
still entirely green. That will start to change as we
begin a spell of notable cooler than normal 
weather that will last at least a week

This morning was another "coldest so far this season," and we should expect a lot of that type of morning as autumn advances.  

Burlington was at 41 degrees as of 7 a.m. today, the coldest it's been since May 12. Most of Vermont was in the mid and upper 30s at that hour. Morrisville was at 33, so they likely had a touch of frost. 

I've talked in past posts about that amazing streak of steady weather we've had. High temperatures have ranged only between 69 an 82 degrees since August 10.

 I don't think we've ever seen anything like that, lasting this long. That streak is about to end. It was definitely inevitable.  It ain't summer anymore. 

In early September, the normal temperature was slowly drifting down, reluctantly leaving the summer season. Now, average temperatures are cratering. At the start of the week, the average temperature for the date was 64. Today it's 61.5 degrees. By the last day of the month it'll be 56.5 degrees. 

It's getting cool fast. Despite sunshine, temperatures will only recover to the 60s today. Still nice, but cool. And then it gets worse.

SUNDAY

This will be a shock to the system. Clouds will have arrived and rain will be overspreading Vermont.  Forecasts have become a little more optimistic for statewide rain, instead of mostly just hitting the south. 

It won't be a super soaker, and it won't really ease the drought in the Northeast Kingdom. Especially since that area will get the least rain out of this, maybe a quarter inch. Otherwise, the northern half of Vermont is currently in for a quarter to a half inch, with southern Vermont seeing a half inch to an inch. 

While all this is going on, cold air will be feeding down from Quebec. That means high temperatures might only reach the 50s. The National Weather Service says it might well be the coldest daytime temperatures for this time of year since 1990. 

It this were late October or early November, this situation might have been an early seasons snowstorm. It's way too early for that. So not to worry, it'll just be a chilly rain. 

Today will be a good day to dig out all the fleece and hats and warm pants out of the closet. Tomorrow will be a good day to stay inside and watch football or binge watch Netflix or something. 

MONDAY-FRIDAY

A chilly week is ahead.  The mountainsides in Vermont are still mostly green. But a long spell of cool weather that's starting today and lasting all week will really begin to change that. 

Next week is a fantastic recipe for setting the stage for a potentially beautiful fall foliate season. We'll have lots of sun, with cool temperatures. The colder valleys will likely have frost each morning, at least Monday through Wednesday, if not beyond. Highs should be in the 58 to 65 degree range, cool for this time of year. 

Meanwhile a very slow moving storm looks like it might form and intensify off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Early guesses are it will become the first nor'easter of the season.  The weather pattern is hard to predict. Will the cool high pressure system to our north keep the storm away from Vermont? Or will it spread clouds and a chilly rain our way toward the end of the week? As always, stay tuned! 

Repeated Rain Chances Keep Heading South Of Vermont

This is subject to change, but this is an guess as to how
much rain will fall between now and Saturday morning
As you can see northern areas largely miss out.
All the good soakers are going mostly to our south

 We could surely use more rain in Vermont. A series of weak, but very wet disturbance are about to turn much of the Northeast soggy. But the Green Mountain State looks like it will largely miss out. 

Southern Vermont might still eke out a decent wetting over the next several days. But unless there's an abrupt change in the forecast, northern Vermont will miss out. 

The first disturbance came in yesterday with ominous afternoon clouds in the north which amounted to......about three raindrops. 

It seems like days in advance, we think we're going to get a soaking, then it turns out not to be a big deal.Thi

Let's walk through the forecast;

TODAY

The warmest day of the week. Then gloom overhead should break up somewhat to become a variably cloudy day. Highs should get well into the 70s, with some banana belt warm valleys touching 80 degrees. One of summer's last gasps. 

THURSDAY

We're in a squeeze play between a front to the south that will have a little disturbance riding along it and a cold front coming in from the  north. 

This setup looks like it will create some rain in the south. But questions remain as to how far north this might get. Varying computer models disagree so we might have some surprises. For now. maybe a quarter to a third of an inch of rain might come down in southern Vermont. That would gradually taper off to a trace to a tenth of an inch north. 

Again, results may vary. 

We're into September now, so we're more likely to see just plain rain rather than scattered showers and thunderstorms. So, probably no thunder tomorrow. Highs should make it into the low and mid 70s for most of us so not bad. 

FRIDAY

We'll squeeze in a classic autumn day. We should have sunshine with highs in the 60s to near 70. A brisk northwest breeze will add a chilly bite to the air. Humidity will plummet, says the National Weather Service, setting us up for a chilly night with frost possible in colder places again

SATURDAY

Dawn Saturday is looking a little colder than the nippy one we experienced yesterday.  Just a couple degrees makes a big difference on whether you'll see frost or not. Only one or two isolated areas had frost yesterday. Saturday morning, this frost might hit a few more of the colder hollows of northern and central Vermont. 

I imagine some places might end up falling under a frost advisory. Stay tuned for updates.  The rest of the day should be more typical September. Highs in the 60s with maybe some increasing clouds. 

The next rainy system looks like it would arrive Saturday night and Sunday. Early indications are this one could, once again, go by to our south, but there's plenty of time for that forecast to change

Cool Autumnal Day In Vermont, Then Rapid Weather Changes, But No Huge Extremes

Thunderstorms visible west of St. Albans just after
sunset Sunday. At my house, we had only sprinkles,
but brief downpours hit just a mile to the north.

Changeable weather seems to be the story in Vermont lately.

Sunday was a great example. We started out with early morning rain. Then we had a delightfully sunny and warm day, especially in western Vermont. Then some downpours and thunder rumbled across far northern and southern Vermont in the evening.  

That changeable theme will continue the rest of the week. The switches in the weather might not be as rapid as on Sunday, but it still will be classic "If you don't like the weather in Vermont wait a minute, it will change. "

Let's get into it. 

TODAY

The cold front swept through overnight, and early this morning it was beginning to whoosh in cool, autumnal air. Dawn temperatures across Vermont were still mild, in the 50s to near 60. But gusty northwest winds won't allow readings to rise much, despite a lot of sunshine.

High temperatures for most of Vermont will get into the 60s as the northwest breezes continue.

It was still cloudy early this morning across much of northern Vermont, especially over and east of the Green Mountains. That will eventually clear up. The Northeast Kingdom won't get the sunshine until we get into this afternoon. That will keep high temperatures in some towns up there only in the 50s. 

The winds will die off later this afternoon and this evening. 

That sets us up for what will yet again become the coldest night of year so far. 

TUESDAY

We'll start the day with temperatures in the 38 to 45 degree range. Most of us, anyway. But the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom could see a frost early Tuesday morning. It'll be a little cooler than Saturday morning, so the cold spots that barely missed out on a frost could get one. 

A frost advisory is in effect for far northern New Hampshire. So far, there's not advisory for any part of Vermont, because the frost isn't expected to be widespread. It's possible an advisory might be issued for the NEK and Adirondacks later today.

South winds will increase, just as they did on Saturday. So the cold morning will quickly transition to a fairly mild afternoon with highs reaching to within a few degrees either side of 70. Clouds will increase, too, but we're not in for any real rain. Maybe some isolated light showers Tuesday night. 

WEDNESDAY

A warmer day. Cloud and isolated showers should break up in the afternoon for sunshine. Highs should get into the 70s to possibly near 80. 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

The weather is going to quickly switch back and forth late in the week and the weekend. A fast west to east to air flow will fling weather disturbances and bright, sunny high pressure systems. That means we'll go back and forth between showers and sunshine. 

It's so hard to know exactly when the showers will hit and when the sunshine will prevail. It's also hard to say how much rain we'll get with each little disturbance. 

Early guesses are showers will come through Thursday, with sunshine Friday and more showers on Saturday and maybe Sunday.  But that could shift as updates come in.

Frustrating for sure if you have late week plans, but that's the trouble with early autumn. But at least we have no extreme weather coming up. 

No extreme heat, no extreme growing season-ending cold, no fading hurricanes flooding our streams, no wind storms, no severe thunderstorms. We get to enjoy the tranquility of September 

It's True Autumn In Vermont Now, And You'll Notice It

Raindrops on a flower this morning in St. Albans, 
Vermont. There's a chance of more showers and 
thunderstorms later today, but some places 
might not get any new rain at all

Typically in Vermont, the first week or so of September often still feels like summer. Then, that warmth fades away. 

We pretty much are feeling that this year. Sure, we'll have a few summer-ish days yet. We'll have several more warm days before winter hits, of course. 

Today will be among those warmer days.  This morning, the vaguely humid, wet air still had the distinct aroma of autumn, not summer. 

Yesterday, Vermont was blessed with yet another gorgeous Saturday. Since at least June, Saturdays have tended to be nice. Just the fortunate rhythm of the weather patterns, I guess. 

After a Saturday morning in Burlington that was the coolest since June 3. it was also comfortably warm that afternoon.  But it felt nothing like summer. Just a gorgeous September day. 

Let's look ahead at what's coming. 

TODAY

Most of Vermont had some rain overnight and early this morning. It looks like most places had a third of an inch of rain. A few places received close to a half inch of rain.  It was still raining early today in eastern Vermont, which is great, as it's needed.  

This Vermont rain is the outer edge of much heavier downpours in southern New England. Flash flood warnings were up in Connecticut, and those flooding rains were spreading toward Rhode Island and Massachusetts. 

Today will actually not be a terribly bad weather day. Better than I thought 24 hours ago. Maybe not as rainy or stormy as originally thought. That said, we still have a shower and even a thunderstorm risk. 

Some clearing will arrive this afternoon, which could send us one of two ways as a cold front approaches. 

On one hand, dry and sinking air behind this morning's rain could help squelch showers and thunderstorms that want to develop. On the other hand, the sun could increase the amount of instability in the air. That would encourage some thunderstorms. 

Any showers that do develop will be mostly in the late afternoon and evening. 

The bottom line is, we still have a marginal risk of severe storms today. That means there could be isolated instances of damaging winds or large hail. Most of us will be fine. 

This is also a conditional forecast, meaning we don't know whether the sinking air or the strong sun will win out. We might see no thunderstorms, or quite a few of them, depending on which scenario wins. 

Showers should continue into the evening.

MONDAY

You know those autumn days I mentioned above? Monday will be one of those. It'll be even chillier than it was on Friday. Morning clouds will yield to sunshine. Those clouds might hold tough for much of the day in the Northeast Kingdom.  Despite afternoon sunshine in most of Vermont, temperatures will hold in the 60s. Some colder spots in the Northeast Kingdom could stay in the 50s. 

The cold hollows in Vermont and New York need to worry about frost Monday night. 

TUESDAY

The morning will start cold. Dawn temperatures will be between 38 to 45 degrees, a little colder than it was Saturday morning. Frost will probably glisten on the grass in the coldest hollow of eastern Vermont. That's nothing unusual for this time of year, but it's a reminder that it's September. 

Much like Saturday, south winds will help boost afternoon temperatures into the low 70s. A weak front that will be falling apart over northern New England Tuesday night. That will create clouds. The clouds, and some south winds will hold temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s. 

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We've been talking about a fast west to east air flow that makes forecasts challenging. Forecasters think a weather disturbance might come through with some rain later Wednesday and Thursday. But we're not sure if that will actually happen or not. It could go too far south or north of us. 

It'll be on the seasonably warm side, with highs Wednesday through Friday in the 70s and lows in the 50s. But beyond that, it looks like cooler weather will settle in. 

 

After Our Vermont Morning Frosts, It's Back To Late Spring Warmth. Except A Nippy Sunday?

It's lilac season, as they blooms cascade over my deck
railing. Cool temperatures this Memorial Day weekend
will preserve the lilacs for awhile, but it won't exactly
feel like an introduction to summer. 

 The cold temperatures last night worked out about as forecast. We had widespread frost, with a large minority of places in northern Vermont going below freezing. 

Montpelier got down to 31 degrees and Morrisville was 29 degrees. St. Johnsbury was barely above freezing at 33 degrees. 

It looks like the Champlain Valley escape the frost for the most part, as temperatures there reached the upper 30s. Burlington had an overnight low of 38 degrees.

There was likely seen light frost across southern Vermont, too. Rutland, Springfield and Bennington all reported morning low temperatures of 35 degrees 

We have nice day on the way, with highs popping back up well into the 60s.  Some high clouds should return this afternoon, but those won't entirely hide the sun. 

Then we get into a Memorial Day weekend that looks, not great in the weather department. But we still have some questions about how much rain we might get and when it might fall. We do know it will be dry much of the time, at least on Saturday and Monday. Let's take a shot at the forecast here: 

SATURDAY

Not too bad, actually, especially north. If the clouds stay thin enough north, the day might begin with patchy frost in the normally colder spots, but the vast majority of us will be fine. It'll be a cloudy day, with the thickest clouds south.

That'll affect temperatures. Highs under the thicker clouds south will probably hold temperatures down into the upper 50s. Where the clouds are thinner north, weak sun getting through will hopefully push temperatures up to near 70.

SUNDAY

Unfortunately, if current forecasts hold, Sunday's weather will be almost as bad as it can get for this time of year. Almost, because there will be no disasters, no snow, or anything like that. 

But it won't feel like the introduction to summer it's supposed to be, either. Light rain should move in later Saturday night and continue much of Sunday. Worse, this is a cold system, so the lack of sunshine and the rain could well hold high temperatures to within a few degrees either side of 50. 

Some places, especially in wetter southern Vermont, could have a high temperature in the mid and upper 40s. You know, like late March,  not late April. 

The one ray of hope is there is some questions as to whether the high pressure system that gave us this morning's frost will at least partially block this system. If it does, there would be some breaks in the clouds and warmer temperatures, especially north. But that looks sort of unlikely at this point. 

The rain should be quite light, ranging from a tenth of an inch north to up to a half inch far south. 

MONDAY

OK, this won't be perfect, but it will be better. Winds from the west will import somewhat warmer air into Vermont. We'll still have a risk of showers, but temperatures should pop back up to near 70, which isn't far from normal for this time of year. 

Thursday Evening Vermont Frost Update: Protect Your Plants Almost Everywhere In Vermont

Visible satellite photo has clear skies in northern and
central Vermont and high clouds south late this
afternoon. Many of those high clouds are expected 
to clear, so frost and freezes are likely in most\
of Vermont tonight and early Friday.

It's a gorgeous late afternoon, especially north, where the landscape features clear blue skies and the greening hills and mountains around us. 

Southern Vermont has quite a few high clouds. They might save the day, or I should say night, and prevent frost down there. But chances are better than even, allowing a frost risk all the way down to the Massachusetts border.

Frost, if not a freeze, is a given tonight and early Friday in northern Vermont away from Lake Champlain .

The Northeast Kingdom is still under a freeze warning, as it was this morning. But that freeze warning has been extended to all of northern Vermont east of the Green Mountains. Temperatures are forecast to be a little colder there than forecasters thought during this morning. The forecast low in Montpelier tonight is 29 or 30 degrees.Their record low tomorrow morning, by the way, is 29 degrees. 

The rest of Vermont outside the Champlain Valley is under a frost advisory for temperatures in the low to mid 30s overnight. 

Despite a lack of any advisories or warnings in the central and northern Champlain Valley, I still wonder if there might be some patches of frost. I think that might happen in spots, especially near and east of Route 7. Just to be safe, I'd cover up or bring sensitive plants in, unless you're right near Lake Champlain.  If you don't get a frost, it'll be no big deal to remove the covers tomorrow morning. 

As of 4 p.m. the dew point was between 27 and 30 across most of Vermont. The dew point is the temperature we have to cool down to get water droplets and dew.

The dew point is a good, but imperfect predictor of frosts and freezes.  If skies remain clear and wind stays calm tonight, that dew point means it can easily get to near freezing tonight across most of Vermont. 

So yup, dig out the sheets, cover all those brand new frost-prone plants you have and hope for the best. If you have a strong back, haul those big tropical potted plants back indoors if you're in the potential freeze zone. You know the drill

Vermont Going From Summer Heat To Frost/Freeze Cold

A spectacular sunset last evening marked the transition
to much cooler weather after our heat wave. Now,
frost and freeze alerts are up tonight for most of Vermont

Well, our heat wave is certainly over in Vermont as we go back to early spring chill. From 90 degrees in parts of Vermont Tuesday to frost and even freezes in much of the state by Friday morning. The weather whiplash continues. 

More on the expected frost and freeze a little further down. 

Yesterday was a transition day. It started overcast and incredibly warm for May and sort of muggy. By midday, especially in northern Vermont, it turned into a breezy, bright and blue summer day. Burlington reached 81 degrees.

By evening, a layer of mid and high level clouds arrived, with clear skies far to the northwest. This set up one of the best, brightest and most beautiful sunsets we've had in ages. Even outdoing the awesome sunset this past Saturday. 

TODAY

Later, skies cleared, and we start today chilly in the 40s. Those high clouds were still around, so I imagine early risers (VERY early, sunrise was at 5:198 a.m) saw a fantastic sunrise.

If it isn't sunny where you are, it should gradually become so this morning, at least if you're in northern and central Vermont.. The south will tend to stay rather cloudy much of the day, but these will mostly be those high and middle level clouds so some sun should get through. 

Highs should only get within a few degrees of 60 for highs today. It'll be cooler than that north and mountains. That'll set us up for night that will make your plants shiver. Or worse. 

TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY

You'd think with a high today in the 55 to 62 degree range, frost would be pretty scattered and light. But the air mass coning in is exceptionally dry. The drier the air, the more it can cool off on clear, calm nights. 

It's why deserts can be 100 degrees or more during the day and near freezing at night.

As such, the National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory for all of Vermont and northern New York except the Champlain Valley. A freeze warning is up for the Northeast Kingdom and the Adirondacks of New York for expected temperatures below 32 degrees.

For now, the Champlain Valley, west of Route 7 looks safe. Maybe. Look for updates this afternoon because updated forecasts might well be colder than I'm depicting here. 

The National Weather Service is considering an upgrade to a freeze warning in north central Vermont, and maybe issuing a frost advisory for the Champlain Valley. Those meteorologists are waiting on updated guidance this afternoon before they decide what to do. 

Despite the warm climate changed springs we've had in recent years, I guess that old adage is still true. Don't put out sensitive plants like tomatoes until after Memorial Day.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

After the morning frost, Friday itself should be gorgeous with sunshine and highs well into the 60s to around 70.

The rest of the weekend is still a pretty big question mark. Saturday looks dry, according to most computer models. But they are disagreeing on whether rain comes in Sunday, and if so how much. Monday has a better shot at getting wet, but again, the timing and amount of rain are still very, very open to debate.

Crazy Vermont/Northeast Heat About To End; Records Set, MUCH Cooler Air On Our Doorsteps

A sea of lilacs as viewed from my back deck in St. 
Albans, Vermont. The hot temperatures of the past
few days made them rapidly bloom. Hopefully
the upcoming cooler weather will preserve the
blooms and the fragrance for awhile. 

 We just managed to do it yesterday in Burlington. 

After clouds held temperatures in the 86 or 87 degree range much of the afternoon, skies cleared and helped boost temperatures to 90 degrees again. Second day in a row that happened. Tuesday's high fell just one degree short of the record high set in 1989.

Other cities in the Northeast set record highs in a big way.

In Philadelphia, it was 98 degrees, setting a new record for the hottest temperature in the entire month of May. Newark, New Jersey at 99 degrees and Manchester, New Hampshire at 97 degrees tied the record high for the month of May. 

Manchester shattered the record for the date by eight degrees, which is quite an accomplishment. 

Other record highs include 96 in Boston, 93 in Providence and 92 in Portland, Maine. 

All these are extraordinary hot temperatures for so early in the season.  

Back here in Vermont, unlike the day before, the morning didn't start cool. The low temperature in Burlington yesterday was  was 71 degrees, breaking a 123-year old record.

This May heat might portend a hot summer. The number crunching meteorologists at WCAX discovered that if the first 90 degree day of the year hits in June, which is what usually happens, on average the enter year will have eight days of 90 degree heat.

If the first 90 hits in May, then on average 11 days during the year will touch at least 90 

Also yesterday, those thunderstorms failed to materialize in Vermont. As we mentioned yesterday, it could have gone either way.  A weather disturbance that could have touched off some storms passed through the Green Mountain State in the late morning. That was too early to touch off anything more than light showers.

The disturbance did generate some thunderstorms in far southern Vermont and in southern New England. The storms in Connecticut were strong enough to knock down a few trees. 

TODAY

Big changes are afoot, but it will take a little while to get here. 

Early morning temperatures across Vermont were extraordinarily warm.  At 7 a.m, Burlington hit their low temperature for the day so far at 76 degrees. Not long after dawn at 6 a.m., it was 74 in Montpelier and Rutland and 72 degrees in Newport. These would easily be candidates for the hottest, stuffiest nights of the month in July. 

We won't set any records for highest low temperature today because by midnight tonight, it will much cooler than what we saw early today. 

Our cold front looked like it was in eastern New York as of 8 a.m. today and will come through Vermont thorough the rest of this morning.  Forecasts call for highs to get cut off in the upper 70s to near 80 north and in the low to perhaps mid 80s far south. 

Meanwhile, our friends in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States will endure one more torrid May day. 

Here in lilac-scented Vermont, though, you'll notice the change in the air today by mid afternoon north and late afternoon south. Even thought the sun should come out, temperatures will be slowly falling amid northwest breezes, humidity levels will fall. Summer will temporally end in favor of spring. 

THURSDAY

You'll need to dig out your fleece and long pants if you're taking your dog for a walk early tomorrow. We'll wake up to early morning temperatures in the low 40s. That's not ridiculous for May, but it is another shocking weather whiplash moment. 

Highs will only get into the 50s to near 60 north and low to mid 60s south, which is actually about 10 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Skies should be at least partly sunny, but there might be some more clouds north and mountains away from the Champlain Valley. 

Away from the Champlain Valley, we're actually back to a risk of some frost in some spots Thursday night and early Friday morning. We'll have more details on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 

This will feature a standoff between strong, cool high pressure in far eastern Quebec and coastal southeast Canada and storminess to our south and west. 

Depending on how this sets up, it could either be cloudy and cool or partly sunny and seasonable. I'm not yet sure where we're going to go with this. Friday has the best chance of being sunny and nice. Saturday will probably be rain-free, especially north. Showers might or might not come in Sunday, and those showers are somewhat more likely Monday. 

Whatever happens, it looks like whatever rain we get will end up being quite light.

Places further south will have an even bigger change in the weather. Cities like Newark and Philadelphia that were in the upper 90s Tuesday will probably have highs barely making it into the low 50s Saturday under rainy skies. 

Back here in Vermont, we'll probably warm up nicely next week. There's mixed signals as to whether it will be just seasonably warm in the 70s or quite warm in the 80s. But we have time to figure that out.  

Unexpected Clouds Rescued Most Of Vermont/North Country From A Nasty Freeze

The sky looked chilly over St. Albans yesterday, leading
to forecasts of freezes and frosts. It did get cold last
night, but it was a couple degrees warmer than 
forecasts, so no hard freezes. That was good
for vulnerable plants and crops.

For the most part, it didn't get quite as cold in most of Vermont overnight, thanks mostly to some unexpected clouds that covered the skies over northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Clouds tend to hold in heat, so it ended up a few degrees warmer than it otherwise would have been.

Under clearer skies, Bennington did manage to get to at least 31 degrees, and Rutland was at 32.  

Most of northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley were also in the low 30s, so there was at least light frost around. But we had no hard freezes except in the coldest hollows where the growing season hasn't really started anyway. 

The Champlain Valley remained mostly frost free, though Middlebury. a little south of that cloud cover, did manage to touch 32 degree.  It looks like Burlington bottomed out at a reasonable 39 degrees. which won't even be the coldest night this month. It was 37 degrees on May 8.

Until recent years, it would almost always get below freezing in Burlington during May. That has changed with climate change intensifying. Since 2011, May temperatures in Burlington have touched 32 degrees on only three occasions. 

Judging from weather forecasts, Burlington will not see any freezing temperatures this May, either. 

FORECAST

The good news is it's going to get wet. We actually need the rain. And eventually, it's going to get warmer. 

Today

The clouds in the north should at least partly clear out today.  If it all works out, we'll end up with a classic cool May afternoon. Sun will mix with clouds and highs will only reach the 50s, which is a good ten degrees cooler than average. 

With such a cool days in store, you'd think we'd be in for another frost and freeze risk tonight. There might well be areas of frost, especially in central and eastern Vermont, but overall, tonight will be a bit warmer than last night. 

That's because more clouds will be coming in. This will introduce a fairly long stretch of wet weather.

Wednesday/Thursday

There's some debate as to when the rain will start Wednesday. Could be early in the morning, could be in the late morning. But it's not going to be a nice day. Another stay indoors day for sure. It'll be rainy and cool, with chilly southeast breezes. Once again we'll  only get into the 50s. 

The storm coming in from the west will eventually transfer to a new, sluggish system on or near the New England coast. That will keep moisture coming inland across the region. That means on and off rain through Thursday. 

Early estimates say most of us would get between a half and three quarters of an inch of rain out of this, with maybe bit less right near the Canadian border.  A few spots central and south could get over an inch of rain. 

Friday/Weekend

That offshore New England storm will probably keep clouds and some showers going on Friday, but my early guess is it won't be a washout. And it'll be a little warmer, with highs in the 60s.

The weekend looks pretty good. There is a slight chance of showers, I suppose, but we'll also a fair amount of sun, fingers crossed. The bigger news is the temperature: It should get to at least near 70 degrees each day. 

The entire weather pattern is changing.  For the rest of May, chilly blasts of air will have a much more difficult time coming in from Canada than they did during the first half of the month. There might be a cool day thrown in here and there. But otherwise we'll launch into what I call pre-summer. 

The weather will be almost summery, but not quite. That means lots of 70s and for almost all of us, no chance of nighttime more frosts.

Let those gardens grow! 

Frost, Freezes In Vermont Tonight. Protect Those Gardens

Tree foliage frozen to death during a destructive 
freeze in May, 2023.  Freeze warnings and frost
advisories are in effect in and around Vermont
tonight. It won't be as bad as 2023, but 
sensitive plants and gardens will 
need protection tonight. 

After a cool, cloudy afternoon in Vermont we're in for a frosty night with freezes, so it's time to cover sensitive plants and protect crops.    

The clouds and light showers north will tend to evaporate as the sun goes down this evening. Temperatures this afternoon were only in the 50s, so readings won't have far to go to get close to the freezing mark. 

Eventually, skies will become clear, which would make it even colder.  

So: A freeze warning is up for all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom, the Champlain Valley and the lower Connecticut River Valley south of Springfield. 

In those areas covered by the freeze warning, expect temperatures to fall to between 29 and 32 degrees by dawn. The freeze could damage crops and gardens. 

We'll have to watch apple and strawberry growers and wineries. This won't be as bad a freeze as the one in May, 2023, which cost farmers and other growers roughly $10 million in crop losses.  

The freeze tonight will not feature temperatures as low as on May 18, 2023. Also, that year featured a really premature spring, much more than this year. So plants and blooms were further along than they are this year, which left them more prone to damage. The hard 2023 freeze also covered the entire state, causing damage all across Vermont. 

Still, this one could be expensive, if farmers aren't able to take measures to protect crops, or if it unexpectedly gets colder than forecast. 

The Northeast Kingdom is not under any advisories or warnings because the growing season has not really started yet in that colder corner of Vermont. 

A frost advisory is in effect for all of the rest of Vermont I haven't mentioned yet. Except Grand Isle County. The islands in Lake Champlain should stay safely above freezing due to the comparatively warm lake water that will temper the chill in the air just a little. 

There might be some frost away from Lake Champlain tomorrow night, too. But increasing cloudiness and a warming air mass means it won't be as cold tomorrow night as tonight will be. 

Frosty Times In Vermont As Long Awaited Warm Weather Is Postponed A Bit M

Late afternoon sun lights up this spring scene in 
my St. Albans, Vermont back yard on Sunday.
Cool weather will preserve the flowers for
awhile, but sensitive plants are staying inside
tonight because of a frost risk. 

Morning showers yesterday, some unexpectedly heavy in northwest Vermont, gave way to a beautiful, breezy and mild Mother's Day. But also as expected, that nice weather yielded to a frosty morning in parts of Vermont this morning.  

Most places away from the Champlain Valley were in the low and mid 30s, which brings us into frost territory. 

The cool weather will go on all week, as some changes in the forecast have postponed some long awaited warm weather. But those balmy conditions are still on the way. Eventually.   

Let's take a gander at this week's cool weather. 

TODAY

Clouds will mix in with the sun this afternoon, especially north and mountains, as a very, very wimpy little disturbance passes by. There might even be a light shower or sprinkle in a few spot. Highs will hold in the mid and upper 50s, which is about ten degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tonight will be the coldest of the bunch, and I'm sure the National Weather Service in South Burlington will issue another round of frost advisories by the time they release their updated forecasts this afternoon. 

I'm not sure yet, but unlike last night, I suspect the frost advisories might extend into the Champlain Valley. Lows should range from the mid and upper 20s in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom, to the low 30s in most of Vermont and the mid-30s in the Champlain Valley. Take those sensitive plants indoors! 

As readers of this here blog thingy probably know, I almost always say it could be worse, and I find receipts that prove it. 

For example, on this day in Burlington, 1963, the high temperature was only 40 degrees, the low was 30 degrees and we had some cold rain, mixed with a  trace of snow. 

And on this date in 1945, higher elevations in southern Vermont was blasted by a mid-winter style snowfall. Somerset and Wilmington got 15 inches of snow, and 10 inches fell in Dorset. In lower elevations. 5.5 inches of snow accumulated in Rutland. 

OK moving on. 

TUESDAY

Another cool, sunny day after the morning frost with highs in the 50s. Actually a very nice, comfortably cool day to get things down outdoors. Aside from the black flies, that is.  Tuesday night will get chilly once again, so frost will be an issue for the third night in a row. It should be a couple degrees warmer than tonight because clouds will start to cover the skies overnight.  

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Those clouds will lead to frequent showers starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing well into Thursday. I'm not sure how much rain we'll get, but it doesn't look like we'll exactly drown. This isn't a powerhouse weather system that's coming in. 

We'll be done with the frost, finally, as the clouds will keep overnight temperatures in the 40s. But those same clouds and showers will hold daytime temperatures down to within a few degrees either side of 60. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

The weather system from Wednesday and Thursday now seems like it might sort of stall out over the ocean east of New England. That will keep clouds here in Vermont Friday and maybe into part of Saturday. And that storm will blunt the expected warmup, but only temporarily. 

It should get into the low 60s Friday and well into the 60s to near 70. That would be the first time in a week with near normal temperatures. 

The weather pattern does seem like it wants to evolve into something better if you're a warm weather fan.  Instead of the flow from Canada we've had since the very end of April, it looks like weather systems will want to zip through here on a nice west to east fashion starting next weekend. 

That means the second half of the month would provide us with near normal to somewhat warmer than normal conditions. Under that scenario, we'd end up with many but not all days making it into the 70s. The warmest days would be near 80 and the coolest days in that stretch would be in the 60s. 

In other words, almost, but not quite summer weather. Won't that be nice?

Cold Spell Of Vermont May Weather Continues With Snow, Freezes; Chilly Pattern To Continue

Daffodils enjoy some morning sun today in St. Albans,
Vermont. Cool weather has kept the daffodils blooming

Friday's weather in Vermont made a liar out of me. 

I said the other day we wouldn't get snow this week or next, except maybe at the tippy top of the mountains. 

Well, when I was in Enosburg Falls, Vermont yesterday, there was a graupel shower. While I was trying to mow a lawn, for gawd's sake. 

Graupel is that sleety, white snow that looks like it partly melted and refroze on the way down. Just regular snowflakes were spotted Friday in Readsboro, in southern Vermont. 

The place in Readsboro where it snowed is at a pretty high elevation, but not at the summit of any mountains. I'm sure it snowed in other places as well. Killington Ski Resort still has a trail with many feet of snow on it. They traditionally close for the season around Memorial Day or at about June 1. 

At this rate in the cool weather, Killington will be open to skiers all summer. I don't really believe that, but the chilly weather is starting to slow down the pace of spring. 

Last night was cold, too. Morning lows today in the Champlain Valley were in the mid-30s, so I think a frost advisory should have been issued there. A hard freeze hit some places away from the lake this morning. Montpelier got to at least 27 degrees and Morrisville was at 27 at 6 a.m. 

Saranac Lake, the perennial cold spot in the Adirondacks, was at a frigid 21 degrees at 6 a.m. today. 

On the bright side, it's not hot and humid, which would be even worse than the fleece and jacket weather we've been having. And the cold air keeps the early spring flowers going for longer. My daffodils look fantabulous this year. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

It'll be a little warmer this weekend, but not spectacularly so. And it's back to cool weather next week, though. And even though we'll see frequent chances of showers, we're not really going to get all the rain we need, either. 

A warm front of sorts is lifting up through Vermont today.  That means far southern Vermont should actually see some rain today, with maybe a quarter to a third of an inch down there.  It was already raining near the Massachusetts border early this morning. 

After a lot of morning sun, it will tend to cloud up this afternoon north. Central and northern Vermont will see little if any rain later today, and maybe just some light, boring showers tonight. 

A few showers might splatter down on Mother's Day, but they'll be hit and miss, won't last long and won't amount to much. Sunday will also actually feature normal temperatures for this time of year, with highs well into the 60s.

Enjoy the brief heat while you can. 

We'll be back down with 50s for highs during the first half of the week, which will be about ten degrees below normal. There's a chance of frost this coming Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

It still looks like it might warm up somewhat during the second half of next week.  Current projections suggest temperatures will head toward normal May levels. That's mid 60s to around 70.  Rainfall will probably stay scant for at least a week, probably more.  

The Vermont Rain Has Arrived. So Has The Cooler Air. How Cool And How Much Rain?

This cluster of daffodils in my St. Albans, Vermont
garden, photographed yesterday, to me looks like
an audience in a theater waiting for the show to start
If the show was needed rain, it started overnight. 

 The rain arrive on schedule overnight in Vermont, but it looks like we're getting cheated out of a good soaking. Which is too bad, we needed it. 

'Don't get me wrong. What rain we're getting is extremely helpful. We don't have to worry about brush and forest fires today. 

 Things are rapidly greening up, and I noticed this morning the rain gave everything an added boost. It's noticeably greener looking out my window than it was even yesterday afternoon. 

The rain soaked northern New York nicely as it lingered there late yesterday and last night. The system will get reinvigorated as it enters eastern New England, so they'll get a good soaking. 

For us in Vermont. Pfft. Through 8 a.m. rainfall tolls were only around a tenth of an inch north and central, and a closer to a quarter inch south, give or take. 

This morning's weekly U.S. Drought Monitor has halted, at least for now, an improving trend we've seen this spring in Vermont. This morning's report extends drought that had been limited to a small area near White River Junction and Springfield all the way down the Connecticut River Valley to Brattleboro. 

Southern Vermont remains abnormally dry, while northern Vermont is still out of any trouble. I don't think we're going to return to the severe drought we had last summer and fall, but as Lynn Anderson sang, "Along with the sunshine, there's got to be a little rain sometime." 

It was still raining a little in northern Vermont as of 9 a.m. and showers should continue through the day. So what I gave you isn't the final totals.  We also still have an unsettled weather pattern to look forward to, but it doesn't look that wet, at least initially. 

THE SET UP

The cooler weather pattern is getting established, as we've been talking about all week. 

The core of the cooler air seems to want to mostly center itself near the Great Lakes. That region will be colder relative to average than we are here in Vermont. Forecasts can change, but for now, it looks like we'll  be cooler than average for a few days. 

We might temporarily get some near normal temperatures for early next week. Maybe even a couple degrees warmer than average if we're lucky. Then temperatures will probably slide back down toward slightly cooler than average later in the week.  

But it's not looking like we will get super cold for May. It's also appears we won't get much rain over the next few days. But the pace of that rainfall might pick up later next week. 

THE DETAILS

Today

Sorry if today is your only day off this week.  It's by far the worst weather day of the week.   The mild, sunny weather is so, so over. At least for awhile. 

Even it it doesn't rain much more today, skies will remain cloudy, there will always be a risk of a shower and temperatures should stay in the cool 50s. 

A few showers should keep going tonight, but they'll be mostly light and mostly in the hills and mountains. Some snow could fall above 2,000 feet in elevation, but it won't amount to much. 

Friday

Actually, not bad! We're a little more optimistic about tomorrow than we were earlier this week. We can expect a fair amount of sun, mixed with clouds especially over the mountains. There could be some isolated light showers, but they'll be brief and over or near the mountains. 

Highs should get into the low 50s for most  of us. That's about 10 degrees colder than average. Cold just ain't what it used to be earlier this spring. 

It's getting to the time of  year when forecasters mention frost and freezes. The National Weather Service regards May 1 as the start of the growing season in the Champlain Valley. With that, I'm guessing they could issue a frost advisory for the valley tomorrow night. The rest of Vermont won't see any advisories because the growing season there hasn't "officially" started.

But it will be in the low to mid 30s in the Champlain Valley and near 30 elsewhere. You'll want to take sensitive plants indoors. Whatever is growing in your perennial garden should be fine, though, despite the expected frost. 

Saturday/Sunday

Similar to Friday, but with a few more clouds in the afternoon and a slightly greater chance of light afternoon showers.  Sunday should also be partly sunny with a very slight chance of light showers, mainly over the hills. Highs should make it into the low and mid 50s both days.  So, an OK weekend, really. 

Next Week

The weather pattern will reinforce itself with a new Canadian cold front. South winds ahead of the front should warm us back up into the 60s.  A dip in the jet stream should stay centered near the Great Lakes next week ,hence the relatively colder air there.

This arrangement means there will be a south to southwest flow of air over us. That would slow down that cold front somewhere over the Northeast, 

For us, that means it won't be particularly warm, but the pattern  opens the door to small storms coming at us from the southwest. That might mean somewhat more substantial rains.  Nothing scary, but we have the potential for a needed soaker or two. Stay tuned to see whether that actually pans out. 

The dip in the jet stream might shift east somewhat later in the week, which would cool us in New England down again. 

Big Early Season Cold Snap Set To Invade Eastern U.S. Here in Vermont, Frequent Light Rain/Snow

A cold overcast over St. Albans, Vermont Thursday.
The weather pattern over the next several days
will feature frequent bouts of rain and snow. 

For us Vermonters, an incoming bout of winter-ish weather is par for the November course here in the Great Soon-To-Be-White north. 

For much of the rest of the eastern United States, this cold snap might end up being one for the record books. 

The blast of chilly air from Canada looks like it will be much stronger and widespread than is usual for November. 

By Tuesday morning, places as far south as Florida could see morning frosts. In central Florida, the forecast low Tuesday in Orlando is 40 degrees. The normal low there this time of year is around 60. 

Further north around Jacksonville, Florida, they're expecting near record highs in the mid-80s this weekend, followed by near record lows in the mid-30s by Tuesday. 

Across the interior Southeast, they're bracing for hard freezes early next week. 

Further north, snow will be widespread starting Sunday and heading into early next week. There should be flakes in the air from Minnesota to Maine, and south to the Ohio River Valley and central Appalachians. 

Most places won't get much snow. Just a pre-winter tease. But an exception will be areas near the Great Lakes. The lake effect snow machine might get off to an early start with this cold wave. There's potential for several inches of snow well south of Buffalo, New York, and south of Watertown, New York.

Another area that could get a fair amount of snow are the upper elevations of northern New England and the Laurentian Mountains in Quebec.  Some mountain peaks could get six or more inches on top of the snow then already have.

More on that in the Vermont section below.

Widespread cold waves like this are getting a bit more rare, thanks to climate change. Record highs are still far outpacing record lows.

But, given the correct alignment of the jet stream, you can get widespread cold weather. You need a big southward dip in the jet stream, deeper than most cold spells. That's what's setting up for the next few days in the eastern United States. 

I don't know how many cities will experience record lows with this Arctic outbreak. The last time I saw a big blast of record cold air hitting the nation was an unprecedented snowstorm and cold snap along the Gulf Coast last January 21-22.

The cold wave coming in within the next few days won't be as bonkers as that spell in January, but since people aren't accustomed to the cold, it will be super noticeable. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Like many recent record winter cold snaps (Like the Texas freeze in 2021 and the already mentioned Gulf Coast snow and cold last winter), the core of the coldest air relative to normal should sweep mostly to our west and south.

We'll briefly get into the coldest air Tuesday, but for the most part, we just have an extended spell of somewhat colder than normal, unsettled but not extreme weather to deal with here in the Green Mountain State.

We have a series of middling storms coming through, including a complicated mess Sunday into Tuesday. 

A quick hitting cold front is coming through today. We'll have some strong south winds in the Champlain Valley. Rain will come in this afternoon. It'll be pretty light, with just a few hundredth of an inch in some valleys with maybe a quarter inch in the north and mountains. 

Some mountain summits will get some snow. 

We'll get a break between storms tomorrow, with just sort of cloudy to partly sunny weather and temperatures up near 50 degrees - not bad for this time of year. 

Another storm will come in Sunday. In northern Vermont, precipitation might start as snow before switching to rain. 

Things get complicated Monday, as maybe a second storm could move northward along the New England coast. At this point, things should stay mostly rain in Vermont on Monday. 

The coldest air will come in Tuesday, and we should have some snow showers across Vermont, even in the valleys. It's still unclear how much snow will fall, but it's beginning to look like most areas will get at least a little. 

I imagine Burlington will get its first trace of snow of the season either Sunday or Tuesday. 

The first trace of snow of the season will be late in Burlington. The average first snowflake is on October 15. 

If Burlington gets an inch of snow on Tuesday, that would actually be a bit early. The average date of the first inch of snow is November 17. The earliest one inch snow on record was on October 9, 1979. 

The snow will keep piling up in the mountains over the next few days. There's already 13 inches of snow atop Mount Mansfield, and they'll have at least six more inches by Tuesday night. 

Killington Ski Resort is contemplating opening for the season during the middle of next week. 

After Tuesday, temperatures will moderate some, but still stay below normal. 

We'll get into an unfortunate, long lasting weather pattern that should feature a near-constant northwest flow of air. That will keep temperatures near to below normal for at least most of next week, if not beyond.

Such a weather pattern also means the frequent weather disturbances that come through won't have much moisture to deal with. That could spell below normal precipitation, especially in southern Vermont. 

We're still in a drought, so we need the wet storms. Aside from a possible decent rainfall Sunday and Monday, it looks like we're kinda out of luck.   

Cold Vermont Morning As Anticipated, Next Up, A Very Normal Couple Of Days

A cool, breezy October day on Metcalf Pond near
East Fairfield, Vermont Thursday ahead of last night's
growing season-ending freeze.

As expected, pretty much everyone in Vermont had a frost and freeze this morning. 

Almost everybody in Vermont was in the upper 20s as dawn broke this morning. Burlington, in the Banana Belt Champlain Valley hit 32 degrees for the first time this autumn. 

That's just two days later than the average date of the first freeze of the fall. We've had warm autumns lately, so this morning's freeze in Burlington was the earliest since 2019.

Given the last spring freeze in Burlington was on April 21, that leaves us with a 2025 growing season lasting 172 days. That's a little longer than the average of 158 days. 

Usually, on calm, cold clear mornings in and around Vermont, temperatures are all over the place.  One town could be near 20 while another a dozen miles up the road could be in the mid-30s.

This time, the readings were quite uniform. Almost all major reporting stations were at 27 or 28 degrees at 7 a.m. An exception was Bennington, at 24 degrees.

Due to the warming influence of Lake Champlain, I'm sure much of Grand Isle County missed out on a frost and freeze. Especially since the lake is warmer than normal for this time of year. At 7 a.m. Burton Island, off of St. Albans Point, was at 41 degrees.

If you managed to save your garden plants or brought some inside like we did, you have a little time left to enjoy. Aside from some frost in the normal cold hollows tonight, the next chance of a frost or freeze is next Wednesday night, and even that is super iffy. 

Today will warm up sharply, with highs within a few degrees either side of 60, which is close to average for this time of year. The sun will make it feel even nicer. 

Saturday looks like terrific as well, with sunshine and highs in the 60s for most of us. The record heat we had earlier this week is long gone, and it's not coming back anytime soon. 

You'll see clouds coming in Sunday, which would be in advance of a strong nor'easter along the East Coast.

I'm doing a separate post on that storm later this morning, because it's such a biggie. That separate post will include how it will affect us here in Vermont. But a spoiler: For the Green Mountain State, unlike other places, that nor'easter could do more good than harm.  

Stick A Fork In It, Garden Season Ends Tonight For Almost Everybody In Vermont

Agapanthus, an orange tree and other tropical plants on
my St. Albans, Vermont deck need to come in today
amid a freeze warning tonight. Other plants, like the 
half dead thing in the blue pot, will just be
abandoned to the frost, as the gardening 
season ends tonight amid subfreezing temperatures. 

 Well, this day had to come eventually. 

Your gardening days in Vermont are pretty much over. Until next spring. 

The biggest freeze of the season is on our doorstep, and from now on the only gardening the vast majority of us will be doing for the rest of the season is fall cleanup and storage.

 I've got some heavy lifting to do today as the orange tree, the hibiscus and several agapanthus plants in heavy pots that are on my deck all need to come indoors today. 

Who knew an autumn freeze would turn into a nice gym workout?

Anyway, it should get below freezing everywhere in Vermont except places right next to Lake Champlain. 

A freeze warning is in effect for the entire state, except the Northeast Kingdom, where the growing season ended with freezes earlier this autumn. And Grand Isle County, which is surrounded by the warm waters of Lake Champlain.

Even in Grand Isle County,  the National Weather Service is thinking about issuing a frost advisory for tonight, as temperatures might get close enough to the freezing mark to worry about frost. 

Most, but not all of us escaped a frost or freeze last night because clouds and wind kept up most of the night.  But you can tell the cold air is flooding in by looking at the mountains. 

As of 6 a.m., the summit of Mount Washington in New Hampshire was just 16 degrees, with a northwest wind gusting to 66 mph.  They're living up to their "world's worst weather" reputation.

The summit of Vermont's Mount Mansfield was down to 25 degrees at 6 a.m. Clouds might have left some rime ice at the summit. Skies cleared at dawn so you should take a peak at the Green Mountain summits. The tops might be white with ice.

Today will be bright and cool for your garden Emergency Frost Harvest. Sunshine won't help warm things up too much as actual temperatures struggle into the low 50s and a gusty northwest wind will add to the chill.

Tonight is a perfect setup for cold temperatures. The air will be dry, the wind will die down to calm, and the sky will stay clear. Which means you'll almost definitely be scraping ice off your windshield tomorrow morning. 

After our stretch of record October warmth, Montpelier could actually get to or at least close to a record low for the date tomorrow. Their record low for Friday is 24, and that's the expected low temperatures there. 

Any record lows won't be widespread, though. Most other towns and cities in and near Vermont should stay three to five degrees above record lows for tomorrow's date. 

Montpelier's forecast notwithstanding, this cold wave is not all that unusual for the first half of October. Though with climate change, it's been a few years since it's gotten this cold this early in the season. 

Another warmup is coming, starting Friday afternoon. But instead of record warmth, we're still looking at merely average temperatures. Heading through the weekend and into next week, that means lows within a few degrees of 40 and highs in the low 60s. 

Notice I didn't mention drought. There's too much to talk about there in this post, so look for an  update later this morning on that. Spoiler: The new U.S. Weekly Drought Report comes out this morning, and there has been some changes to the forecast for Sunday and Monday.