Crazy Vermont/Northeast Heat About To End; Records Set, MUCH Cooler Air On Our Doorsteps

A sea of lilacs as viewed from my back deck in St. 
Albans, Vermont. The hot temperatures of the past
few days made them rapidly bloom. Hopefully
the upcoming cooler weather will preserve the
blooms and the fragrance for awhile. 

 We just managed to do it yesterday in Burlington. 

After clouds held temperatures in the 86 or 87 degree range much of the afternoon, skies cleared and helped boost temperatures to 90 degrees again. Second day in a row that happened. Tuesday's high fell just one degree short of the record high set in 1989.

Other cities in the Northeast set record highs in a big way.

In Philadelphia, it was 98 degrees, setting a new record for the hottest temperature in the entire month of May. Newark, New Jersey at 99 degrees and Manchester, New Hampshire at 97 degrees tied the record high for the month of May. 

Manchester shattered the record for the date by eight degrees, which is quite an accomplishment. 

Other record highs include 96 in Boston, 93 in Providence and 92 in Portland, Maine. 

All these are extraordinary hot temperatures for so early in the season.  

Back here in Vermont, unlike the day before, the morning didn't start cool. The low temperature in Burlington yesterday was  was 71 degrees, breaking a 123-year old record.

This May heat might portend a hot summer. The number crunching meteorologists at WCAX discovered that if the first 90 degree day of the year hits in June, which is what usually happens, on average the enter year will have eight days of 90 degree heat.

If the first 90 hits in May, then on average 11 days during the year will touch at least 90 

Also yesterday, those thunderstorms failed to materialize in Vermont. As we mentioned yesterday, it could have gone either way.  A weather disturbance that could have touched off some storms passed through the Green Mountain State in the late morning. That was too early to touch off anything more than light showers.

The disturbance did generate some thunderstorms in far southern Vermont and in southern New England. The storms in Connecticut were strong enough to knock down a few trees. 

TODAY

Big changes are afoot, but it will take a little while to get here. 

Early morning temperatures across Vermont were extraordinarily warm.  At 7 a.m, Burlington hit their low temperature for the day so far at 76 degrees. Not long after dawn at 6 a.m., it was 74 in Montpelier and Rutland and 72 degrees in Newport. These would easily be candidates for the hottest, stuffiest nights of the month in July. 

We won't set any records for highest low temperature today because by midnight tonight, it will much cooler than what we saw early today. 

Our cold front looked like it was in eastern New York as of 8 a.m. today and will come through Vermont thorough the rest of this morning.  Forecasts call for highs to get cut off in the upper 70s to near 80 north and in the low to perhaps mid 80s far south. 

Meanwhile, our friends in southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic States will endure one more torrid May day. 

Here in lilac-scented Vermont, though, you'll notice the change in the air today by mid afternoon north and late afternoon south. Even thought the sun should come out, temperatures will be slowly falling amid northwest breezes, humidity levels will fall. Summer will temporally end in favor of spring. 

THURSDAY

You'll need to dig out your fleece and long pants if you're taking your dog for a walk early tomorrow. We'll wake up to early morning temperatures in the low 40s. That's not ridiculous for May, but it is another shocking weather whiplash moment. 

Highs will only get into the 50s to near 60 north and low to mid 60s south, which is actually about 10 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Skies should be at least partly sunny, but there might be some more clouds north and mountains away from the Champlain Valley. 

Away from the Champlain Valley, we're actually back to a risk of some frost in some spots Thursday night and early Friday morning. We'll have more details on that in tomorrow morning's post. 

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND 

This will feature a standoff between strong, cool high pressure in far eastern Quebec and coastal southeast Canada and storminess to our south and west. 

Depending on how this sets up, it could either be cloudy and cool or partly sunny and seasonable. I'm not yet sure where we're going to go with this. Friday has the best chance of being sunny and nice. Saturday will probably be rain-free, especially north. Showers might or might not come in Sunday, and those showers are somewhat more likely Monday. 

Whatever happens, it looks like whatever rain we get will end up being quite light.

Places further south will have an even bigger change in the weather. Cities like Newark and Philadelphia that were in the upper 90s Tuesday will probably have highs barely making it into the low 50s Saturday under rainy skies. 

Back here in Vermont, we'll probably warm up nicely next week. There's mixed signals as to whether it will be just seasonably warm in the 70s or quite warm in the 80s. But we have time to figure that out.  

Flash Heat Wave Monday, Questions About Heat And Storms Today, Then Sharply Cooler Late Week

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still extends their
slight risk of severe thunderstorms into Vermont.
(Everything in yellow is a slight risk).

That was a wild weather ride on Monday! 

Northern Vermont in particular endured the day's weather whiplash. As I noted in yesterday morning's post, the day began stormy and cold with fitful downpours, local gusty winds and even a rumble or two of thunder. 

Burlington reached 90 degrees by late afternoon, after a rainy early morning low of 51 degrees. By afternoon, we were sweating in a brief May heat wave that is already over-performing. 

I saw somewhere on social media where somebody in Vermont said they ran their furnace in the morning and air conditioner in the afternoon.

I'd call it a flash heat wave. Like a sudden flash flood, only hot air, not water. 

The day featured a rare temperature stat: Burlington had its first 80 degree temperature of the season Sunday. And only a day later, the first 90 of the season hit.  The same thing happened in April, 2002, but I wonder if this week and 2002 were the only times something like that happened. 

There has always been the occasional May in Burlington in which the temperature hit 90. But probably at least in part due to climate change, 90 degree May days are getting more common. In the 109 years in Burlington ending in 2009, we had 14 Mays that reached at least 90 degrees.

But in the 16 years since 2010, there have already been eight such days in May.  

Elsewhere in Vermont, the high in Bennington Monday was 89 degrees. Montpelier reached 86 degrees after a morning low of 46.  A temperature change of 40 degrees in just one day is pretty wild. 

The heat isn't only a Vermont thing, of course. Philadelphia reached 96 degrees Monday, a record for the date. It was also the second hottest May temperature on record.  In New York City, a high of 95 is expected today, followed by an incredibly stuffy overnight low tonight of 77. It should hit 90 degrees in the Big Apple again tomorrow. 

Heat advisories are in effect for much of southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. Hartford, Connecticut had its second day in a row of 90 degree temperatures Monday. Today's forecast high there is a whopping 96 degrees. The forecast high in Springfield today is 97.

VERMONT FORECAST

Back here in Vermont, the degree of heat today will depend on the level of cloud cover.  Severe thunderstorms are also possible, but there might be factors that allow us to luck out and avoid the worst of the storms. Maybe. 

We're certainly off to a very warm, muggy start. It looks like the low temperature this morning in Burlington was 71 degrees, so if you didn't sleep well in the Champlain Valley, that's why. If that low temperature holds through midnight, it'll break the record for warmest low temperature for the date. (The current record holder is 67 degrees way back in 1903.  

As the day goes on the valleys of southern Vermont have the best chance of reaching 90 degrees today, as they'll have the most sun.  The National Weather Service forecast for Springfield, for instance is 92 degrees.

I think clouds might prevent another 90 degree day in Burlington today, we'll see about that. There was already a batch of clouds and light showers in central and western New York early this morning. Those clouds might not clear out fast enough to allow another 90 degree day. Though we're starting out pretty warm, so it's still possible. 

The next question is severe thunderstorms. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 alert on a scale of 5 - for the northwest half of Vermont and a level one marginal risk for the southeast. 

The amount of instability in the atmosphere over us isn't huge over us today, which is a limiting factor for storms. But there is a subtle disturbance in the atmosphere due by early afternoon. That, combined with rising air near mountains could trigger some storms.

Also, cool air coming off of Lake Champlain sometimes creates these teeny tiny miniature cold fronts which are boundaries between the cool lake air and the warmer inland air. Those could be triggering spots for storms. After that, cool winds blasting out of thunderstorms could set up additionally teeny tiny little cold fronts elsewhere, which would trigger more storms. 

Bottom line: Some of us will see showers or storms, some of us will stay dry.  A small number of us could experience strong, even damaging winds from storms. This won't be a widespread severe storm event. 

We don't know who, if anybody will get those rambunctious storms. Pay attention to the skies if you're outdoors, and have a way to receive severe storm warnings, just in case. 

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

After another stuffy night coming up, Wednesday will bring another big change. A cold front will stumble through, in the morning north, afternoon south and east. The timing of it means the north will probably just see some scattered showers in the morning, with clearing skies and highs in the 70s during the afternoon. 

Southeast Vermont could see some thunderstorms but severe ones seem unlikely, at least for now. Highs in the south look like they want to get up into the 80s

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

More big changes in a roller coaster of a weather week. We'll wake up to sharply colder temperatures Thursday morning with lows in the 38 to 45 degrees. Under at least partly sunny if not clear skies, temperatures should only get into the mid and upper 50s north,  and some 60s south. 

Since it will be so cool, there might be some frost Thursday night and early Friday in areas of Vermont away from the Champlain Valley.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND

A toss up on how the holiday weekend will turn out. The American weather model keeps showers at bay Saturday and Sunday, leaving us with partly sunny skies and cool highs in the 60s.  The European model brings showers into our area Saturday and Sunday. Both models give us some showers on Monday, Memorial Day. 

Yes, Big Blizzards Can Counterintuitively Be A Sign Of Climate Change

Satellite view of the immense nor'easter this week that
caused the record snows in New England

Climate change skeptics scoff, but sometimes, extreme winter weather is made worse because of a warming planet. 

That might well be the case with the big Blizzard of 2026.

Every big storm depends on a rich supply of ocean moisture to do its handiwork. In the northern hemisphere, that moisture usually comes from south of the actual storm.  

Our nor'easter pulled deep, warm tropical moisture off the Atlantic Ocean. That moisture smacked into relatively  cold air over the Northeast. The water in the air froze as countless snowflakes, which piled up to record levels in parts of New England. 

That this was a record snow event was telling.  A warmer world, a warmer ocean can pull more moisture into the atmosphere than our former cooler world would have been able to do.  This is a big reason why our storm this week over-performed. 

It wasn't a one-off either. 

While overall winter snowfall isn't really increasing in the Northeast, individual snowstorms are tending to get bigger..

Six of Boston's 10 biggest snowstorms have occurred since 2003. Seven of New York City's ten biggest snowstorms on record have also all occurred since 2003.

This isn't just a coastal thing. Inland, in Burlington Vermont, eleven of the top 20 biggest snowstorms have hit since 2001.

TEMPERATURE NUANCES

One other nuance helped turn the Blizzard of '26 into the monster it was.

Not all ocean water stays warm all the time in our hotter world. Regional weather patterns over a few weeks or even a whole season can make a big difference.

It's been cold in the Northeast this winter, as you might have noticed. That has made the ocean water right along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts chillier than usual. 

Storms like nor'easters prefer to form and more along a steep cold to warm ocean temperature gradient.  Essentially, storms want to "find" the warmer water.  This storm found climate changed hotter water a bit further offshore than it usually does, as the Washington Post reports.  

Many nor'easters like to find that temperature gradient near what is known as the "benchmark" which is 40 degrees latitude and 70 degrees longitude, which is off the southeast corner of New England

This time, that temperature gradient in the ocean water was a little more offshore than usual, this storm passed over about 68 degrees longitude or about 100 miles east of the benchmark. This slight eastward shift allowed the precipitation to stay all snow in Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. It also funneled the heaviest precipitation into that area. 

Had the storm gone right over the benchmark, Providence and southeast Massachusetts might have had a period of rain thrown into the storm. The heaviest snow would have fallen in somewhat less populated areas like central Massachusetts and northern Connecticut. 

 Of course, some nor'easters hug the coast or even go inland a bit, temperature gradients be damned. ,  In those cases, interior New England gets all the heavy snow. while areas closer to the coast mostly see heavy rain, high winds and storm surges.  

STRONGER STORMS

Studies are showing that not only are nor'easters getting wetter, they're getting stronger. 

Stronger storms tend to create heavier precipitation. The barometric pressure in thie center of this nor'easter was exceeding low. A deep storm like that creates big pressure differences over a short distance.  The pressure diffeences create strong winds which cause lift in the atmosphere. The vigorous lift  that turned the moisture the storm drew from the Atlantic Ocean into very heavy snow, as the Washington Post notes. 

That robust lift in the atmosphere also help create thunder snow in some areas hit hardest by the storm.

Record big snowstorms in the past like the Blizzard of '78, the hundred hour storm in February, 1969 and the Christmas Week storm in northwest New England in December, 1969 were so severe because the nor'easters involved slowed down dramatically or stalled, adding to the accumulation. 

Those stalling storms are rare, which is one reason why two to three foot deep New England blizzards were once so rare.

More recent record breakers, like this week's storm, moved forward at a decent pace with no stalls  They were able to dump enormous amounts of snow within 24 hours. 

Now, a brief visit by a nor'easter often does all the damage that was once only made possible by lingering storms. 

It makes me wonder if another Blizzard of '26 is not all that far off in our future.  

Northeastern U.S, Hunkers Down For Blizzard Of '26. Up Here In Vermont, We Catch The Edge Of It

Fox Weather has this graphic of expected snow amounts
Click on the image to make it bigger and easier to see,
Note the spots of expected two feet or more in '
New Jersey and Massachusetts

Million of people in the Northeast this morning are bracing for an intense, highly dangerous blizzard as forecasts seemingly get worse with every cycle of forecasts. 

The area under blizzard warnings expanded a little more overnight. All of Delaware and New Jersey are in the blizzard warning zone. So is southeastern Maryland and a few counties in Pennsylvania.

The blizzard warming was nudged northward to about Newburgh in New York's Lower Hudson Valley. In Connecticut. the blizzard warning yesterday just covered the southern coast. Now, that warning goes into central Connecticut.  In eastern coastal New England, the blizzard warning now extends as far north as Portsmouth, New Hampshire. 

There's been some changes to the forecast in Vermont, too. We'll get into those further down in this post.

WHERE IT STANDS

The storm is off to its expected slow start this morning, with patchy areas of light rain, snow, sleet and fog.   But it will all intensify during today and reach its screaming crescendo tonight. 

The storm was just developing near coastal North Carolina this morning and will strengthen explosively. 

By early tomorrow, the intense nor'easter will be in a position southeast of Cape Cod, at around 40 degrees north latitude and 70 degrees west longitude. That spot is known as the "benchmark" among meteorologists. It's the spot you want a nor'easter to go to give maximum snowfall to New England and the New York metro area. 

Since this storm will be so intense, the amount of snow will be magnified. So will the wind. In some areas, like New York City, this will be the second big snowstorm of the winter. This one will be much worse than the one in late January. The Big Apple is under its first blizzard warning since March, 2017. This is also expected to be the biggest snowstorm there since 2016.

 Initially, the snow will be wet and heavy, especially near the coastlines. The weight of the snow, combined with the strong winds, will probably bring down a lot of trees and power lines. There will probably be a lot of power outages. Repairs won't go quickly, considering it will be incredibly dangerous for crews to fix power lines in the midst of a blizzard.

Don't even think of flying in or out of the Northeast today. As of 8:30 this morning, a little over 3,000 flights were canceled today and nearly 3,800 flights were scrubbed for tomorrow, says FlightAware.com. I expect those numbers to go up more

Everybody is the storm zone has been told to hunker down, basically shelter in place in their homes. Any road travel should be limited to extreme emergencies, and even then, cars should be stocked with foo, water, and extra warm clothing. 

Snowfall rates should increase to two inches per hour or even a little more tonight. In southeastern Massachusetts, there could be isolated areas of up to four inches per hours. There's also a decent chance of thunder snow in southeastern New England.  

Winds will gust to or even over 50 mph in the blizzard zone. It will be almost as bad in areas covered by winter storm warnings just west and north of the areas under the blizzard warning. In southeastern New England, winds could be even stronger than in New York and New Jersey. Some areas south of Boston and on Cape Cod and the island could go past 70 mph.

Generally speaking, most places in this blizzard should receive one to two feet of snow.  Some areas could receive up to 30 inches of snow. A few records for deepest snowstorm are under threat. 

Coastal flooding is also a given with this, so expect some damage there. The coastal flooding won't be as bad as the devastation we saw in the Blizzard of 1978, but it'll still get dangerous. Some ice remains in shelters bays and such from that frigid weather earlier this month. Movement of that ice during the storm could cause added damage.

Between the possibly record breaking snow depths, the strong winds and the coastal flooding, this is one super dangerous storm.

The only saving grace I can find is this intense nor'easter won't stall like the Blizzard of 1888 or the Blizzard of 1978. In this case, the period of intense weather will last only about 24 hours. But the damage will have been done.

Also, after the storm, some slow thawing is expected to begin later this week, in contrast to the January storm.  It stayed cold for weeks after the January storm, so all that snow and ice just sat there. This time, the snow will at least start to settle in the big cities of the Northeast starting later this week. 

We're hoping everyone heeds the warnings with this intense storm. If people don't follow the rules and stay inside during this blizzard, some of them could die. 

 VERMONT EFFECTS

When a nor'easter goes over that 40/70 benchmark southeast of Cape Cod, as mentioned above, most of Vermont usually gets just the fringe effects of the storm.

Since this storm is so powerful, far southern Vermont will get a decent hit, though it will be nothing compared to what places nearer to the coast will endure. 

Bennington and Windham counties, the areas of the state closest to the Massachusetts border are under a winter storm storm warning. Those areas should get five to 10 inches of snow with winds gusting as high as 40 mph tonight an tomorrow. 

Rutland and Windsor counties have a winter weather advisory for Monday as those areas should get three to five inches of snow with winds gusting to 35 mph. That'll force a lot of blowing and drifting.

As is typical with a setup like this, snow amounts should fall sharply as you head into northern Vermont.  East of the Green Mountains in northern Vermont, there could be an inch or two of new snow out of this.  In the Champlain Valley, it'll be less than an inch. 

For those Vermonters who are for some reason desperate for snow, there's a slight possibility the nor'easter might throw a band of snow all the way across Vermont, which would give northern parts of the state a few inches of snow.

That said, the possibility of that happening is quite low. Don't hold your breath. 

The nor'easter will make things windy and quite cold for a couple days. We'll have some relative warmth today with highs in the mid-30 under mostly cloudy skies.

By tomorrow, it'll only be in the 20s for highs with a stiff north wind gusting to more than 30 mph. Readings will drop to 10 degrees or so tomorrow night and only get into the upper teens and low 20s on Tuesday. It could get close to zero Tuesday night. 

It'll warm up again to daytime highs in the low 30s late in the week. But a small storm Wednesday could spread a little snow our way. Another storm Friday gives us a shot at more snow or mixed precipitation. Those forecasts are iffy, so stay tuned for information after the nor'easter passes.   

Widespread, Serious U.S. Damage From Winter Storm; Nice Big Vermont Thump Of Snow Just Starting

Oxford, Mississippi today. Photo by
Meteorologist Eric Graves via Facebook

Editors note: Vermont-specific storm info is further down in this post. National news summary is first.

Tales of how dreadful our giant winter storm has been in so much of the United States have been emerging all afternoon. And for many, it'll keep going overnight.  

As of mid-afternoon, five people had so far died in the storm and frigid weather, and that toll is almost surely going to rise. Two people died of hypothermia in Louisiana and three apparently homeless people were found dead in New York. 

Over one million homes and businesses across the South had no electricity as of mid-afternoon. 

I'm terribly worried about people in the South who won't have power for days. In general, houses aren't really insulated against frigid weather. 

Temperatures are likely to fall to 10 degrees or lower in western Mississippi, which has been hard hit by the ice storm. Readings won't get above freezing there until Tuesday afternoon, and even then, just barely. 

Hard-hit Nashville expects temperatures in the single digits tonight and possible as low as 0 tomorrow night. As of mid-afternoon, 203,302 homes and businesses in Davidson County, Tennessee, which includes Nashville, had no power. That represents 92 percent of the customers there. 

Some people in the county, and throughout the South, won't have electricity back for days, perhaps weeks in a few instances. 

A similarly bad ice storm struck the Nashville in February, 1994, but it didn't get nearly cold after the storm as it will this time. 

It's not just trees and power lines collapsing. At least two buildings collapsed in Gainesville, Texas, near the Oklahoma border due the heavy weight of sleet on roofs. A large race car and classic car shop in northern Mississippi also collapsed due to the ice. 

In Dallas at around 1 a.m today, traffic snarled as 19,000 people left American Airlines Center after a Mavericks game and tried to get home on freeways covered in snow and sleet. A hill on the Woodall Rogers Freeway was too much for many cars. 

Nashville today. Via Mark Fairless/Facebook

In St. Louis, for the second time this winter, traffic came to a standstill because of many crashes on the freeways around the city.

Reed Timmer's video of Oxford, Mississippi showed massive destruction to the city's trees. It reminded me very much of the tree carnage here in northwest Vermont during the Great Ice Storm of 1998. 

Similar scenes are playing out in northern Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee. It was beginning to get that bad in the Carolinas this afternoon. 

 Snowfall totals are starting to get impressive. Examples include 16.6 inches in Davis, West Virginia, and more than 13 inches at sites in Missouri, Indiana, Illinois and Ohio.

Even greater snow totals are likely by the time the storm ends, especially in parts of Pennsylvania, much of New York and New England. Up to 30 inches of snow could fall in New York's Catskills. 

Areas south of the ice and snow zone have their own troubles. At one point this afternoon, the National Weather Service had the southeast corner of Alabama under a tornado warning, severe thunderstorm warning, tornado watch, freeze warning, cold weather advisory, extreme cold watch, and a wind advisory. 

Air travel is still hopelessly snarled. By midafternoon, 11,727 flights had been canceled today, according to Flight Aware. Already, more than 2,600 flights tomorrow are scrubbed

As darkness fell, most, but not all of the precipitation was confined to the Appalachians, East Coast and eastern Great Lakes. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

Anyone who looks out the window can tell our storm is here. As expected, snowfall this afternoon has been quite a bit heavier in southern Vermont than in the north. 

National Weather Service storm prediction map hasn't
changed much since this morning. They might have
added an inch or two to Northeast Kingdom totals. 

Unlike in the rest of the nation, the storm here in Vermont is arguably doing more good than harm. It's definitely boosting the winter sports industry. 

The exceptionally cold air is keeping the snowflakes tiny, especially in the north, and that has also cut back on total accumulation. For now at least. 

I don't think I've seen a snowstorm this cold since February, 2015. At 4 p.m., Montpelier reported moderate snow and a temperature of 1 below. It doesn't appear any place in Vermont was warmer than 6 above late this afternoon. 

Temperatures should hold steady or grudgingly rise overnight, but not by much. It might be 10 degree or so by dawn, and make it into the mid and upper teens in the afternoon. Not great, but an improvement over the past couple of days, I guess. 

It was really snowing in southern Vermont as of 5 p.m. and snowfall rates were picking up in the north, and that trend will continue into the evening. 

The snow will keep cranking overnight, but tend to taper off in the early morning hours. In some areas, it might not be snowing at all at dawn. This might annoy some people, because a ton of school closings have already been announced for tomorrow. 

But maybe the school closings are a good idea, since the snow will pick up again during the day. 

The main storm will be heading out to sea early tomorrow, which is why we're going to temporarily lose the snow. But the huge system's upper atmospheric support will come through during the day, which will create lift in the atmosphere. Lift means snow at these temperatures. 

The snow is quite dry and is blowing off the roads fairly easily. At least at first. Road crews might have a little trouble keeping up with it is snowing hardest. Plus, salt does not work well at all when it snows at such low temperatures. 

Traffic cam grab shortly after 4 p.m. today caught
Vermont State highway crews clearing snow 
from Route 9 in Searsburg. 

Even during the lull in the snow tomorrow morning, I can't imagine road conditions will be all that great. Since it'll pretty much snow all day, the roads will stay snowy and slick all day, too. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington hasn't change the expected accumulations much since this morning. 

They've added an inch or two maybe to the Northeast Kingdom, and now they're more or less calling for a foot of snow up there. 

The southern Green Mountains are still looking like the big winners, with an expected 18 to 24 inches. This type of storm sometimes over-performs in the southern Greens, so it's possible they could get more. No promises, though. 

After this storm goes by, I still don't see any signs any new big storms for at least ten days. But we are locked in a cold weather pattern.  If we're lucky, the weather might modify to something just seasonal chilly in about a week. 

But that just gets us up into the 20s during the afternoons. Not exactly warm. But at least the sunsets are getting later.  This coming Saturday will bring us the first 5 p.m. sunset of the year.  

Vermont Christmas Is Over, Winter Weather Drags On

The sky looking west from St Albans, Vermont at dawn
today had those pink and baby blue tones that I've 
always associated with a subzero winter cold snap. 

We woke up this day after Christmas in Vermont to the coldest morning since December 7. 

Skies cleared out above a blanket of fresh snow and a big supply of Canadian air to drop large sections of Vermont and surrounding areas below zero as dawn broke. Those of us who stayed above that frigid zero mark did so just barely. 

The chill isn't that unusual for late December - Burlington got down to 2 above this morning, missing the record low for the date by a huge 28 degrees. But it's not comfortable out there, either. 

From my perch on St. Albans hill, I can see that St. Albans Bay appears to be frozen, earlier than in recent years. This really has been a colder winter than usual so far. Pretty stormy, too. 

That trend is going to continue. 

WEIRD STORM

High thin clouds will make an appearance over Vermont today and thicken as the afternoon wears on. It'll stay cold as highs only make it into the teens. 

This is due to a weird storm that will just brush by us, but cause havoc from Ontario to New Jersey. An Alberta clipper, as scheduled, is diving southeastward from Michigan to an eventual path that will take it off the Mid-Atlantic coast'.

The path of this storm is odd. So is it's strength, given it's a clipper, which usually aren't all that impressive. It was spreading snow through southern Ontario this morning and mixed precipitation in Michigan. 

It will intensify further as it heads southeast. An ice storm warning is up for western Pennsylvania today and tonight. Freezing rain there today and tonight will make travel scary to say the least. It also risks causing tree and power line damage. Today's not the day for a road trip to Pittsburgh, that's for sure. 

As the storm heads further south, it'll trigger a snowstorm from central New York down to the New York City metro area. That zone is in for five to nine inches of snow tonight. 

We in Vermont will just be mostly bystanders to this spectacle.  It'll snow a little in the Green Mountain State overnight, mostly south and west of Interstate 89. A little snow might get north of that, but it'll be inconsequential. There might be a couple inches down by Bennington. If the storm somehow manages to jog north a bit, then, of course we get a bit more snow. 

But this won't be a biggie for us. 

THE NEXT STORM 

The next system in the pipeline will be more of a problem for us. Those of  you who are thrilled we're missing out on today's ice storm in Pennsylvania aren't going to like this one. We're in for some ice Sunday night and Monday. 

Saturday and Sunday will be quiet and cold. Though, because we're setting up for freezing rain eventually, Sunday's highs on the Green Mountain summits will probably be warmer than the valleys.You need that type of inversion to get your freezing rain. 

That'll come in Sunday night. If you get your return trip home or to wherever you're headed by sunset on Sunday, you should be fine. 

At this point, fingers crossed, it doesn't look like the freezing rain will be enough to cause much damage to trees and power lines. But it will be more than enough to mess with anyone on the roads overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

If you have to work Monday, it will probably be an excellent day to work from home if at all possible. We haven't had much freezing rain and sleet yet this winter, so this will be our first real experience with it of the season. We don't have our "ice legs" yet.

,Yeah, it sucks. 

It will probably turn warm enough for awhile Monday to change things over to plain rain in much of Vermont. It won't be like a week ago though, when temperatures soared into the 50s and low 60s/

This time. it'll only make it into the mid and upper 30s. Maybe a few low 40s in southern valleys. The snow on the ground won't go away. It'll just get crusty and icy. 

The storm's cold front will probably sweep through later Monday afternoon or evening, as it looks now, anyway. The system will really crank up as it gets into southeast Canada, so expect plunging temperatures and strong northwest winds, which would continue into Tuesday. 

Most of us won't get much snow after the cold front goes through, but the central and northern Green Mountains have the potential to get a decent dump. 

It''ll stay really cold into the first few days of 2026, with a reinforcing shot of Arctic air probably arriving as we ring in the New Year. 

Satellite Photo Today Shows Snow Covering Most Of Northeast

Snow covers most of the Northeast now, as today
visible satellite photo shows. Click on the photo
to make it bigger and easier to see. Unfortunately
for White Christmas lovers, a lot of the snow
cover will be wiped out before the holiday. 

 Skies cleared across almost all of the Northeast today, revealing just how extensive the snow cover is.

A storm that missed Vermont on Sunday laid down a stripe of snow from Delaware to Maine. The Northeast now has a more extensive snow cover this early in the season that it's had in a long time. 

If you click on the satellite photo in this post to make it bigger and easier to see, the snow cover extended all the way down the coast to southern Delaware. 

Sunday's storm hugged the coast, so you can see that north-central Virginia and a little piece of south-central Pennsylvania missed out on the snow. 

Further west, you can see that West Virginia is snowy white, mostly from small weather systems that moved in from the west late last week, and the remnants of lake effect snows from the Great Lakes running up against West Virginia's mountains. 

It's still early in the season so you can see that lakes aren't frozen yet. Lake Winnipesaukee in New Hampshire looks wide open. Same thing for Lake Champlain, as you can just see poking out of some cloud cover late this morning near the spot where Vermont, New York and Quebec converge.

For those of you dreaming of a White Christmas, that's a really iffy proposition for most of the Northeast except for northern New England and a lot of areas near the Great Lakes. 

A warmer weather pattern is taking shape, which will melt the snow. Aside from the wet and windy storm late this week I talked about in this morning's post, northern New England should remain mostly cold enough to get a little more snow before the Big Day  

Winter Storm Watches Now Up In the Northeast, Including Parts of Vermont

That dark blue area from northeastern Pennsylvania to
Maine is a winter storm watch as heavy snow might
fall in that band on Tuesday. That sort of off-purple
patch in north central New York is for some lake-
enhanced snow tonight. 

We've got a quick little update since this morning:

A wide band of winter storm watches as of late this afternoon have popped up from northeastern Pennsylvania, through central New York, central New England on into central Maine. 

Before we even get into the updates, today's bits and pieces of snow caused some real headaches. Both northbound and southbound lanes of Interstate 89 near Sharon had multiple crashes due to icy conditions this afternoon. Traffic, as you would imagine, was seriously gummed up in that area.

The closest traffic cam to the crash site I could find was along Interstate 89 in Bethel which didn't look too bad late this afternoon. It appears a half inch or so of snow has fallen in the area. That proves it doesn't take much to cause some danger on the roads. 

We've got some chances of snow overnight, so look out for more icy spots, including on your way in to work tomorrow after the Thanksgiving holiday.

Now, the storm. This will be the third of three storms that affected parts of the U.S. this week. The first sent blizzard conditions through parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes last week. The second came yesterday with widespread snows from South Dakota to Michigan. Now we have this thing in the Northeast. 

Here in Vermont, basically draw a west to east line across the middle of the state, and south of that is your winter storm watch. 

It's in effect from early Tuesday morning to late Tuesday night. Somewhere in middle of that time frame, maybe in the afternoon and early evening, there might be a few quick hours where the snow comes down hard.

That is, if the storm goes according to plan. There's still a lot of hemming and hawing among the computer models as to how close to us it will come. 

The storm could blast right over southeastern New England, which would throw the big burst of snow into interior New England, including southern Vermont.  Or, it could race across the waters off the New England, coast, which would reduce how much snow the Green Mountain state catches.

Northern Vermont - at this point anyway - seems to be on the hook for just light snow. There's still even a chance of nothing up by the Canadian border, we'll see.

The more detailed computer models come out during the day tomorrow. Those might be able to better pin down how much everybody gets.  

I'll have an update for you tomorrow morning. 

Closely Watched Monitor Says Vermont On Cusp Of Drought, But It's Probably Already Started In Some Respects

These trees along Interstate 89 in Colchester, Vermont
turned brown and wilted for lack of moisture during
the hot, dry weather we've had recently. 

 The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor came out today, and technically, we're not in drought here in Vermont, but for all practical purposes, we are. 

It's a developing flash drought, meaning it's setting in within a matter of weeks instead of several months like a "traditional" drought. 

As of this morning, the U.S. Drought Monitor said 87 percent of Vermont was "abnormally dry" up from 72 percent last week and absolute no place in the Green Mountain State the year before.

Abnormally dry is a designation the Drought Monitor gives when a region is on the cusp of a drought, and things are drying up too much. But it's not a declared drought. 

The only part of Vermont not regarded as "abnormally dry" in today's update is the Champlain Valley, which generally had a wetter July than the rest of the state. 

Even so,  the dry, hot weather weather of recent weeks has left its mark in the valley. I traveled between Burlington and St. Albans along Interstate 89 this morning and saw a lot of wilted, brown or yellow trees where the soil is thin atop rock ledges. Those spots dry out first, and the soil completely ran out of moisture to feed those trees during out recent "Death Valley Days" arid heat wave.  

In the entire Northeast region, which encompasses an area from West Virginia and Maryland up to Maine, 44.6 percent of the region was abnormally dry Thursday, up from 17 percent a week earlier. Coastal Maine and New Hampshire, and parts of western New York, have fallen into drought. 

Back here in Vermont, signs of the increasingly dry conditions are noticeable everywhere. Lawns have gone from green to brown within days. 

Lake Champlain is continuing a rapid drop. It was down to right around 94 feet this morning, down from 95.3 feet just a month ago 

There have already been a number of reports of boat groundings at Hogback Reef and Colchester Shoal between Burlington and Malletts Bay in Colchester.

Forest fire danger remained high in much of Vermont today, though it temporarily fell to moderate in the Green Mountains, which saw some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday. 

Aside from isolated showers south and east this afternoon, and mostly light showers Sunday, the immediate forecast is for continued dry weather here in Vermont. The last seven-day precipitation forecast issued this afternoon, calls for as much a half inch of rain over the next seven days in northern Vermont, to less than a tenth of an inch in the far south. 

On average, Vermont receives roughly an inch of rain per week. 

After Day Of More Bonkers Record Highs, Extreme Heat Now Ending. Also, Severe Storms, And Upcoming Flood Threat?

A classic example of what I call a SLC, my technical
meteorological term for "Scary Looking Cloud."
Looks like a tornado behind that hill, but it's just
scud clouds rising into a thunderstorm looking
east from Charlotte, Vermont early Tuesday evening
The thunderstorms broke the record heat
in Vermont toward the end of the dya. 

Tuesday was another day of absolutely bonkers record highs in the Northeast, including here in Vermont

 Plus, at the end of the day, Vermont was rattled by thunderstorms, which at least tempered the heat. . 

Despite the humidity you might still feel this morning, it's going to get a lot better, and very soon. 

But we'll have to watch for more interesting weather coming up in Vermont over the next few days.

There's lots to get into within this mornings post, so settle in!    

HEAT RECORDS SHATTERED

The wildest records were set from central New England on south.

Preliminary data indicates that Massachusetts broke the record for the entire state for the hottest June temperature ever observed - 103 degrees in Barre Falls.

Also, Connecticut reportedly broke its statewide record high for June with 103 degrees in Natchaug. Rhode Island broke its statewide record with 102 degrees. Maine (100 degrees) and New Hampshire, (102 degrees) tied their statewide June record high. 

Lebanon, New Hampshire, just across the Connecticut River from White River Junction, Vermont set their all time record high of 100 degrees. Lebanon's previous record hottest-ever day didn't last long, considering it was set on Monday.  

 I suspect once final reports come in, we'll find a few places in southeastern Vermont reached 100 degrees. That would be the second June in a row that a weather station in the Green Mountain State reached 100 degrees. Which is insane. 

Further south, several cities set new records for hottest temperature for the entire month of June. Among them were Boston, with 102 degrees; Providence, Rhode Island at 100 degrees;  Newark, New Jersey, 103 degrees; and Manchester, New Hampshire, 102 degrees 

A weak boundary ahead of a cold front prevented far northern areas of Vermont from getting even hotter than Monday. (I noticed rapidly rising temperatures abruptly leveled off somewhat near and north Route 2 in the early afternoon with a wind shift from south to west).

Still before some late afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorms arrived, record highs were set in Vermont and neighboring New York. This after a slew of record highs on Monday. 

Plattsburgh, New York hit 99 degrees, a record high and just barely missing out on two days in a row at or above 100 degrees.

Burlington on Tuesday was "colder" than Monday with a record high of "only" 97 degrees. That beat the old record of 93 set in 2003. 

Other Vermont record highs including 93 in Montpelier, exceeding the old 1995 record by four degrees. St. Johnsbury roasted at 96 degrees for a new record high. I noticed Springfield, Vermont reached 98 degrees.  

STORMS

Occasionally strong thunderstorms developed late Tuesday afternoon and evening in central and northern Vermont and New York as a cold front approached. Atmospheric conditions weren't all there for most strong storms to last long, but some managed to hold together. 

One storm formed near Burlington, Vermont and held together pretty intensely all the way down Interstate 89 to Barre, then on through eastern Vermont into New Hampshire, 

This thing produced a string was severe thunderstorm warnings along its path. Not many reports of damage came in, mostly I think because people were more focused on the heat.  However. Route 14 between Brookfield and East Randolph was reportedly blocked for awhile Tuesday evening due to numerous fallen trees. 

HEAT ENDS TODAY  

Early morning risers today would be forgiven for scoffing if I told the the record heat wave in Vermont is over. It was still really humid statewide early today, which would suggest another hot day.

What happened to the cold front?

It came through, but the cool, dry air lagged behind it a bit. But that much better air will gush in during the day today. You'll notice the humidity levels falling through the morning and afternoon. The air will feel much fresher, especially in the north by this afternoon.

Up in northern and central Vermont, where dew points were at uncomfortable levels near 70 degrees early this morning, will be in the refreshing 50s by this afternoon. High temperatures in the north will only be near 80 this afternoon. 

It'll take a little longer to flush out the hot, humid air in southern Vermont, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley. High there could touch 90 degrees. Residents down there might not notice the lower humidity until later this afternoon.

MORE TROUBLE AHEAD?

The cold front that is cooling us off won't get all that far to our south, and will start moving north again as a warm front over the weekend.

At first, temperatures around here will actually be below normal for a change tomorrow and especially Friday. Some towns on Friday might not get out of the upper 60s, meaning highs Friday in a few places could be cooler than low temperatures were on Tuesday. . 

There could be some trouble with this in northern Vermont later Friday and Saturday. Some forecasts indicate a disturbance riding west to east along the front could unleash some heavy rains - perhaps enough to cause some flash flooding.

If that happens, it's most likely north of Route 2. However, this forecast is pretty uncertain. The heavy rain might set in southern Quebec instead. A few models put the heavier rain in southern Vermont.

Or perhaps the torrent won't really materialize at all. For now, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has put far northern Vermont and northeast New York in a slight risk zone for flash flooding later Friday into Saturday.  

It looks like the heat might briefly return next Monday and perhaps Tuesday, but it won't be as bad as it was this week. I doubt we'll see more records broken. But it could get up to 90 degrees again next Monday. 

 

Vermont Weekend Weather Gets Interesting, And Wet. And Maybe Severe Storms?

A small magnolia tree I planted a couple years ago
was getting ready to bloom this morning as clouds
threatening rain loomed over St. Albans, Vermont
We have another rainy Saturday, with the risk
of a few strong to severe thunderstorms in
far southern parts of the state this afternoon and evening, 

 Parts of Vermont got a taste on Friday of the kind of weather we'll see this weekend, and most of the upcoming week:  Wet, with a chance of stronger storms or heavy rain in some spots. 

While some areas of Vermont turned sunny and warm Friday afternoon after a murky morning, others had bigger concerns. 

For instance, a strong thunderstorm  late in the afternoon and early evening basically traveled west to east along Route 4 from New York, all the way through Rutland and White River Junction and out into New Hampshire. 

The storm wasn't really damaging, but it had some torrential downpours and gusty winds and lightning. It got people's attention, 

The was the start of a setup that for several days will keep southern Vermont very wet, and northern Vermont unsettled, but not quite so soggy. 

In the short term - meaning today -  people in southern Vermont will need to keep a wary eye to the sky. There could be some severe thunderstorms, believe it or not.

In the longer term, later in the week, we'll have to watch for the risk of southern Vermont flooding. So far, that risk is low, but bears watching. More on that after I get into today's storms.

SEVERE RISK

This weather pattern is featuring a stalled weather front, with little ripples of storms running southwest to northeast along it. Today the front is draped across Vermont. The front also extends southwestward all the way to the Gulf Coast. That helps ensure a feed of moisture for potential rain and storms for the length of this long, slow moving front.  

On the warmer, eastern side of the front, atmospheric conditions will create a narrow band of severe storm potential from the western Carolinas all the way  up into central New England 

That narrow band of possible severe thunderstorms clips southern Vermont.  The far south of the state is in a level 2 alert on a five point scale for severe storm potential. That means scattered severe storms. In other words, a few towns in far southern Vermont could experience damaging winds from some of these storms.

A level one or marginal risk extends as far north as Route 4, meaning there could be a brief, isolated instance of damaging winds, but most places will be fine. 

By the way there is a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup tornado with this in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York and into central New England. That tiny twister risk extends a little into Vermont, probably up to Route 9 or so. In this zone, there's a two percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point within that risk area.

Further north in Vermont, there's no risk of any severe weather, or even thunderstorms for that matter. But showers are moving in. They, of course, will be most likely late this morning through mid-afternoon, when so many people have so many Saturday outdoor plans. 

It is Green Up Day in Vermont, an annual early May event in which hundreds or thousands of volunteers fan out along the state's roadways pickup up trash that accumulated over the winter, 

So yes, it's the seventh Saturday in a row with rain,

RAINY WEEK

This nearly stalled weather pattern is expected to persist until Thursday at least. Through this episode, it does look like the heaviest rain will fall in southern Vermont with lighter amounts north. 

Areas this week with the most torrential rains look like they'll be in southern New York, parts of southern New England and areas around Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  Flooding is a possibility in those places,

These sluggish weather patterns, with that cut off upper low pressure hanging around the Northeast, are pretty unpredictable, though, as I mentioned yesterday. So we'll need to watch to see whether even heavier rain creeps into southern Vermont during the week. 

That's a big question mark, but if it does, we'll need to monitor for flooding. So far, the risk looks low, but worth paying attention to. 

Severe Weather/Tornado Outbreak Upper Midwest Today, We In Vermont Could See Severe Storms Later Tuesday

Widespread severe storms and likely tornadoes are 
likely today, especially in red and orange areas 
on this map. 

The Upper Midwest if bracing for a rough day today of potentially strong tornadoes, giant hail and destructive winds as the weather set up is almost ideal for a severe weather outbreak in that neck of the woods. 

That severe weather is forecast to some extent migrate toward the Northeast, maybe affecting Vermont later tomorrow. More on that in a bit. First, today's Midwest threats.

TORNADO RISK DETAILS

Even before our storm really got going, things were looking ominous Sunday evening. Some supercells spit out a handful of large tornadoes in western and central Nebraska.

Some pretty strong storms were ongoing early this morning in eastern South Dakota and southwest Minnesota.

These are just a preview. The main show will get going this afternoon

The area under the biggest threat for dangerous weather today includes most of Wisconsin and Iowa, southern and central Minnesota and northwest Illinois.  

Major cities most likely to be under the gun are Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota; Madison, Wisconsin; Des Moines, Iowa and Rockford, Illinois.

A somewhat lesser but real threat extends southwestward all the way down to Texas.  

We know we'll see severe storms and tornadoes in the Upper Midwest today, but we don't 100 percent know exactly how they'll evolve.

If supercells manage to form and maintain themselves ahead of the main line of storms later today, then we end up with the risk of strong, long-lasting tornadoes plowing through Iowa, southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin. 

That scenario is a maybe/maybe not. But if these dangerous supercells erupt, they'll go from nothingburgers to extremely dangerous monsters in minutes. The National Weather Service office in the Minneapolis area is not mincing words in their forecast discussion:

"The takeaway from today's severe storm potential is to remain vigilant of the potential for storms to go up quickly. This may mean checking your phone more often or keeping an eye to the sky, but don't let your guard down in this environment."

 If, instead, the main line of storms exerts itself more, there might not necessarily be those supercells out ahead of the storm  This second scenario is still bad news, as there will be zones of destructive straight line winds and quite a few embedded tornadoes in this mess.

The most likely outcome  today is a combination of what I described above. The main question will be how many supercells form ahead of the main blast of storms. 

TUESDAY'S STORM ADVANCE

Tuesday's severe storm risk area is in yellow, with the
orange area at a somewhat higher risk. Note how the
yellow risk area extends into parts of Vermont, 

By Tuesday, the main threat from this dynamic storm heads east. The storm center itself will race up into central Quebec, but its powerful cold front will press east into the Great Lakes. 

Tuesday's threat area runs from southern Quebec and Ontario, then southwestward through northwest New England, the eastern Great Lakes, northern Ohio Valley then all the way down to central Texas. 

The greatest threat looks go from central Ohio, through northwest Pennsylvania and on into western and central New York.  

While there might be a couple tornadoes in this area, the main threat is damaging winds and large, destructive hail.

As noted, the severe threat extend into Quebec and northwest New England, so that puts Vermont in play. Details next:

VERMONT THREAT

This daffodil looks completely defeated and possibly 
dead after Sunday's snow in St. Albans, but....

Before we get into the severe storm threat, a final word or two on Sunday's snow.

A couple places got an impressive amount of snow. A high elevation spot in Greensboro reported .1 inches of snow. Brownington reported 3.5 inches.  

Here in St. Albans, it was striking how snowy and miserable it was in the early afternoon.

 By evening, it was a downright pleasant spring evening, with sunshine and relatively mild air. Go figure.

Today, by the way, will be gorgeous, with sunshine and temperatures in the 60s to near 70. Enjoy!

Now onto our next threat. 

But same daffodil three hours after above photo was taken
shows a nice recovery. This daffodil, and the rest of
them in the gardens, might have to endure some
severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening in northwest Vermont.

South winds ahead of that approaching cold front will throw a squirt of warm, somewhat humid air into Vermont. 

 Most of the day will actually be nice with highs reaching well into the 70s, with maybe an 80 degree reading or two in a couple of Vermont's more "tropical" towns. 

Dew points - a measure of how humid it will get - should reach the mid 50s to around 60. That's kinda humid for this time of year but not oppressive. 

Thunderstorms thrive on humid air, so the more muggy the air is, the more fuel for these storms. 

So the outlook for the thunderstorms in the humidity category is so-so.  

However, there will be strong winds aloft. Storms that do form can grab that high altitude air and shove it down to the surface, where we are. That's why there's the risk of severe storms.  A few of these could have wind gusts to 60 mph or even a little more. 

The heat from sunshine created instability, which is part of the reason why the thunderstorms are likely to be so strong over New York, since they'll hit there in the afternoon.

Timing is such that the storms look like they'll come in very late in the afternoon and evening. For instance, current forecasts have the best chance for thunderstorms in Burlington between 6 and 8 p.m. Tuesday,

By the time they reach Vermont, the storms will be beginning to diminish. At this point, it looks like a few storms still might have enough oomph to be severe generally in an area north and west of a line running from roughly Rutland to Montpelier to east of Newport. 

As the storms head toward southeastern Vermont later in the evening they'll diminish to nothing scary. 

Note that not everyone will get a severe storm. Northwest Vermont is in a level two of a five point risk scale, five being the hair-on-fire top scary alert. Our level two "slight risk" means scattered severe storms are possible, but they'll tend to be relatively short-lived and not terribly widespread.

So, just keep your eye to the sky Tuesday evening if you're in northwest Vermont and head inside if you receive a severe thunderstorm warning or see ominous skies to the west and north. 

The cold front might also produce some fairly strong winds after the thunderstorms go by.  These winds won't be associated with any thunderstorms, but they could cause very isolated power outages in a  few spots.

Unlike the cold front we saw this past weekend, it won't get nearly cold enough for snow.  Instead, Wednesday looks bright, refreshingly cool and breezy.  

Wildfires That Plagued The East During Last Autumn's Drought Are Back

Large wildfire in eastern Long Island,
New York Saturday. Photo via Facebook
from Long Island Advance

The spate of brush and forest fires that harassed much of the eastern United States during last autumn's drought are back. 

Spring wildfires are more common than autumn. Dry weeds and foliage dry out in the strengthening March sun. The landscape hasn't started greening yet.  

If it gets dry and windy, fires can break out under those conditions,  

We've already had large fires in the Carolinas that started last week. At least one of them near Myrtle Beach is still burning.  At last report it was 55 percent contained and had consumed 2,000 acres after threatening several homes.

A 40-year old woman was arrested for starting that fire. Last Saturday, the woman started a fire in her fire pit near the tree line in back of her home while strong, dry winds blew. She did not have a water supply or other fire fighting tools ready when she lit the fire, authorities said. 

On Saturday, three large wildfires broke out on eastern Long island, New York, forcing the closure of major roads, forcing evacuations and damaging two commercial businesses. Two firefighters were hurt, but their injuries are said to be not that serious. 

Investigators are trying to determine if those fires were accidental or did somebody set them. Two of the fires were contained as of Sunday afternoon, and firefighters were making substantial gains on the third one. 

Several fires broke out in New Jersey in the past week, including one that threatened about 30 buildings in Hopewell Junction. A new wildfire broke out amid dry winds gusting to 40 mph on Saturday near Pennsville Township, New Jersey, just across the Delaware River from Wilmington, Delaware. 

Most of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania remained under fire weather alerts today   as the humidity remained low and gusty winds continued. No real rain is in the forecast for most of the Northeast until next Saturday night or Sunday. 

Last autumn's drought that affected the Northeast never really went away. It is still ongoing in many areas, especially in Maryland, New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, southeast New York and southern New England.  Those dry conditions are making the usual early spring fires that much more easy to erupt.

Believe it or not, brush and wildfire season is approaching in Vermont. True, many areas are still deep in snow, and that won't disappear immediately, despite the warm air that's in the forecast in the next several days. 

However, the snow will eventually disappear, and before we green up for spring, the dry brush from last year can easily burst into flames and spread rapidly during the type of dry, windy days we often have in April.  

Next In Series Of Vermont Snowfalls Coming Tonight; In Many Ways, This Is A Pleasant One

Southern Vermont will be the big winner in the snow
sweepstakes with the latest storm racing through
tonight. A good half a foot or more down thee. 

Once again, winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are up for most of Vermont as yet another quick hitting snowfall comes racing through the Green Mountain State tonight. 

Despite the fact that the southern half of the state will receive more snow tonight than that storm we had on Thursday, it's not going to screw up things as much as the daytime snow burst we dealt with Thursday. 

First off, this will be all snow. Don't worry about freezing drizzle or crap like that.   Although most of the southern half of Vermont is going to be dealing with six or more inches of snow, it will be light and fluffy and powdery and pretty. 

We're not going to get a lot of wind, and the tail end of this storm won't include the kind of vicious snow squalls like most of northern Vermont saw Friday morning. This new snow is hitting on the weekend, and mostly at night, so it's not going to mess with schools, or that many work schedules. 

Sure, you'll have to take this snow seriously out one the roads, but you should know the drill by now.

THE PARTICULARS 

If you insist on getting bread and milk, because that's what you apparently have to do when a snowstorm is forecast, you're in the clear for that all day today. There's a few light snow showers around this morning, courtesy of a nothing burger little disturbance passing through. Otherwise, expect clouds to dominate and temperatures to be reasonable - in the 20s 

Then we get our storm. 

Gawd, this thing is moving fast. It'll get here this evening with snow cranking up for most of us between 8 and 10 this evening. By dawn or a little after Sunday, it'll pretty much be over.  . 

Southern Vermont

The storm is zipping by well to our south, so this will be a southern Vermont storm. Yes, snow will fall all the way to the Canadian border and a little beyond, but the real blast of snow will hit the south. 

A winter storm warning is up for Vermont's southern four counties. There, a good six to 10 inches of snow should come down.  It's possible a few isolated spots, especially in the far southern Green Mountains, could get close to a foot of snow. 

Though not exactly huge. the snowbanks lining my
driveway in St. Albans, Vermont are starting to
gain height. Looks like I'll have a small installment
of new snow tonight, as the heaviest stuff
should pass to our south. 

Like I said, it'll all come in a short period of time, so it will really snow hard down in that part of the state overnight. 

Many places in southern Vermont will see snowfall rates of an inch or more per hour at times. That's too fast for the snow plows to keep up with things. 

 I wouldn't bother driving anywhere in Vermont overnight if you can help it, but especially avoid southern Vermont. 

Things on the roads should improve quickly down there during Sunday morning, so that's when you head to the ski areas.

Central Vermont 

A winter weather advisory is flying for central and north-central Vermont.  It covers places like Middlebury, Burlington, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury, but is not in effect for the counties along the Canadian border.

In the winter weather advisory zone, a decent three to six inches of fluff will come down to freshen everything up. The roads won't be great overnight, but other than that, enjoy the winter beauty there

Northern Vermont

No winter advisories are in effect for far northern Vermont. Those places should receive two to as much as four inches of fluff overnight and early Sunday. The least amount of snow should fall tight against the border, in places like Alburgh, Berkshire, Highgate in the far northwest; and probably Canaan at the northeast tip of Vermont might see just two inches or a little less.  

OUTLOOK

The storms will keep coming but we do have a sort of break in the action for a few days. After the bulk of the snow departs tomorrow, the rest of the day will feature clouds, maybe a glimpse of sun, and a few lingering light snow showers.

Monday looks partly sunny and chilly. A new cold front Tuesday could set off some snow showers, and forecasters are going to keep an eye on the risk of snow squalls once again later Tuesday. Those aren't guaranteed, but bear watching.

The next real storm looks like it wants to come along toward Thursday.  The early guess is this will be mostly or all snow. But there are questions about the path of the storm, which is what you'd expect since it's so many days away.  All that means that, if the storm goes inland too far, we could be looking at some freezing rain getting thrown in with the snow.

It's too soon to tell, so we'll put that in our back pocket for a few days and wait for updated forecasts later this week. 

After that, there's signs of yet another storm three days after Thursday's. Watch this space. 

ELSEWHERE

The storm tonight is not going to be nearly as pleasant elsewhere as it will be in Vermont.

An ice storm warning is in effect for pretty much the same sections of Pennsylvania that endured a bunch of freezing rain, blocked roads and power outages on Thursday. West Virginia, which suffered flooding on Thursday, is under another flood watch. Flood warnings are already in effect for parts of that state. 

The winter storm warning we mentioned in southern Vermont extends through the rest of central and southern New England. Places in the three southern New England states that have missed out on snowfalls so far this winter will finally get lucky with this one.

At least the risk of severe storms and tornadoes is lower with this system. The previous storm spun off s handful of tornadoes in Kentucky and Tennessee, one of which unfortunately killed two people and injured others. 

Wednesday Evening Vermont Snow Update: Not A Biggie, But Watch The Driving Thursday

Snow-laden spruce trees Wednesday afternoon behind my
house in St. Albans, Vermont stand ready to take on
a little more snow and freezing drizzle that's in the
forecast for Thursday. 

I figure since we keep getting this constant spray of small storms coming through we'll keep you up to date with latest forecasts for the next one, due Thursday.  

Not much has changed with the forecast, as we are still anticipating a midday burst of snow, followed by some annoying freezing drizzle. 

The National Weather Service has added the possibility of some scattered snow squalls late Thursday night or early Friday morning, just for fun. 

I hope you enjoyed the blue skies over Vermont today.   It was a bright, gorgeous chilly day across Vermont. Classic mid-winter. 

 That still air, clear skies and low humidity will make temperatures crash this evening, with most of us outside the Champlain Valley getting below zero again.  The Champlain Valley itself will be close to zero.

As the clouds come in late tonight and stop the temperature free fall. Reading might actually start to rise as dawn approaches, especially in the Champlain Valley

Thursday 

In all except southwest Vermont, if you get to work or school by 9 a.m., you should avoid snowy roads. It should be clear sailing. 

Not much snow is expected here in Vermont tomorrow with
our likely short, sharp burst of snow, but it will add
a little to the increasingly deep snow cover, especially
in the Green Mountains and Northeast Kingdom 

Then, as the storm rockets by, we should only see a four to five hour window in which it will really be snowing. 

Give or take, its start mid-morning beginning first near Bennington then spreading rapidly northeastward to the Northeast Kingdom by early afternoon. 

The snow should pretty much be over by early to mid afternoon west and mid to late afternoon east. 

That doesn't give us much time to accumulate snow, which is why we're only expecting around 1.5 inches in the Champlain Valley to maybe three or four inches in the Green Mountains. 

Of course, forecasters are still saying that after the snow ends, we'll  have a few hours in which we'll deal with patchy freezing drizzle.   So the drive home, between the lingering snow on the roads, and the pesky freezing drizzle, could make things a little slow.

For the record, because of the snow and freezing drizzle, all of Vermont is under a winter weather advisory Thursday. 

It's stay murky and sorta mild amid the freezing drizzle Thursday evening before another cold front blasts through early Friday morning. It won't have as much cold air with it as the last couple of cold fronts had, but it will probably set off some snow showers and a locally heavy snow squall or two.

They'll be brief, and won't amount to much, but will probably leave their calling card on roadways as a little snow and ice for your Friday morning commute. It's winter, after all, what do you expect?

Friday itself looks blustery and seasonably cold, with snow showers mainly in the mountains.  Don't expect much additional accumulation. 

Elsewhere. 

The real action with this storm remains to our southwest. It's vigorous enough so that it might touch off a couple of severe thunderstorms, or even a weak tornado or two tonight in Tennessee or Kentucky.  There's also the risk of a little flooding in and around West Virginia as it should rain pretty hard down in that neck of the woods tonight. 

The big problem still looks like it will be in parts of Pennsylvania and Maryland, where an ice storm warning remains in effect. In addition to horrendous driving conditions, they are worried about power outages and tree damage in the worst affected areas.

Many school districts in the ice storm warning area have already called off classes for Thursday. 

Other Storms

It's still looking like another storm will hit Vermont and surrounding areas Sunday. Some areas could see more than six inches of snow. The early read on this is the heaviest snow is most likely in southern Vermont, but that could change, so stay tuned.

The rapid fire spray of storms continues. Another one looks like it might affect parts of the East Coast next Tuesday, but the early guess is that one might go too far south of Vermont to have any effect on us. We'll keep an eye on it. 

Beyond that, forecasts get even iffier, but it looks possible that yet another quick winter storm could affect us next Friday, and again a week from this Sunday.