After Day Of More Bonkers Record Highs, Extreme Heat Now Ending. Also, Severe Storms, And Upcoming Flood Threat?

A classic example of what I call a SLC, my technical
meteorological term for "Scary Looking Cloud."
Looks like a tornado behind that hill, but it's just
scud clouds rising into a thunderstorm looking
east from Charlotte, Vermont early Tuesday evening
The thunderstorms broke the record heat
in Vermont toward the end of the dya. 

Tuesday was another day of absolutely bonkers record highs in the Northeast, including here in Vermont

 Plus, at the end of the day, Vermont was rattled by thunderstorms, which at least tempered the heat. . 

Despite the humidity you might still feel this morning, it's going to get a lot better, and very soon. 

But we'll have to watch for more interesting weather coming up in Vermont over the next few days.

There's lots to get into within this mornings post, so settle in!    

HEAT RECORDS SHATTERED

The wildest records were set from central New England on south.

Preliminary data indicates that Massachusetts broke the record for the entire state for the hottest June temperature ever observed - 103 degrees in Barre Falls.

Also, Connecticut reportedly broke its statewide record high for June with 103 degrees in Natchaug. Rhode Island broke its statewide record with 102 degrees. Maine (100 degrees) and New Hampshire, (102 degrees) tied their statewide June record high. 

Lebanon, New Hampshire, just across the Connecticut River from White River Junction, Vermont set their all time record high of 100 degrees. Lebanon's previous record hottest-ever day didn't last long, considering it was set on Monday.  

 I suspect once final reports come in, we'll find a few places in southeastern Vermont reached 100 degrees. That would be the second June in a row that a weather station in the Green Mountain State reached 100 degrees. Which is insane. 

Further south, several cities set new records for hottest temperature for the entire month of June. Among them were Boston, with 102 degrees; Providence, Rhode Island at 100 degrees;  Newark, New Jersey, 103 degrees; and Manchester, New Hampshire, 102 degrees 

A weak boundary ahead of a cold front prevented far northern areas of Vermont from getting even hotter than Monday. (I noticed rapidly rising temperatures abruptly leveled off somewhat near and north Route 2 in the early afternoon with a wind shift from south to west).

Still before some late afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorms arrived, record highs were set in Vermont and neighboring New York. This after a slew of record highs on Monday. 

Plattsburgh, New York hit 99 degrees, a record high and just barely missing out on two days in a row at or above 100 degrees.

Burlington on Tuesday was "colder" than Monday with a record high of "only" 97 degrees. That beat the old record of 93 set in 2003. 

Other Vermont record highs including 93 in Montpelier, exceeding the old 1995 record by four degrees. St. Johnsbury roasted at 96 degrees for a new record high. I noticed Springfield, Vermont reached 98 degrees.  

STORMS

Occasionally strong thunderstorms developed late Tuesday afternoon and evening in central and northern Vermont and New York as a cold front approached. Atmospheric conditions weren't all there for most strong storms to last long, but some managed to hold together. 

One storm formed near Burlington, Vermont and held together pretty intensely all the way down Interstate 89 to Barre, then on through eastern Vermont into New Hampshire, 

This thing produced a string was severe thunderstorm warnings along its path. Not many reports of damage came in, mostly I think because people were more focused on the heat.  However. Route 14 between Brookfield and East Randolph was reportedly blocked for awhile Tuesday evening due to numerous fallen trees. 

HEAT ENDS TODAY  

Early morning risers today would be forgiven for scoffing if I told the the record heat wave in Vermont is over. It was still really humid statewide early today, which would suggest another hot day.

What happened to the cold front?

It came through, but the cool, dry air lagged behind it a bit. But that much better air will gush in during the day today. You'll notice the humidity levels falling through the morning and afternoon. The air will feel much fresher, especially in the north by this afternoon.

Up in northern and central Vermont, where dew points were at uncomfortable levels near 70 degrees early this morning, will be in the refreshing 50s by this afternoon. High temperatures in the north will only be near 80 this afternoon. 

It'll take a little longer to flush out the hot, humid air in southern Vermont, especially in the lower Connecticut River Valley. High there could touch 90 degrees. Residents down there might not notice the lower humidity until later this afternoon.

MORE TROUBLE AHEAD?

The cold front that is cooling us off won't get all that far to our south, and will start moving north again as a warm front over the weekend.

At first, temperatures around here will actually be below normal for a change tomorrow and especially Friday. Some towns on Friday might not get out of the upper 60s, meaning highs Friday in a few places could be cooler than low temperatures were on Tuesday. . 

There could be some trouble with this in northern Vermont later Friday and Saturday. Some forecasts indicate a disturbance riding west to east along the front could unleash some heavy rains - perhaps enough to cause some flash flooding.

If that happens, it's most likely north of Route 2. However, this forecast is pretty uncertain. The heavy rain might set in southern Quebec instead. A few models put the heavier rain in southern Vermont.

Or perhaps the torrent won't really materialize at all. For now, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has put far northern Vermont and northeast New York in a slight risk zone for flash flooding later Friday into Saturday.  

It looks like the heat might briefly return next Monday and perhaps Tuesday, but it won't be as bad as it was this week. I doubt we'll see more records broken. But it could get up to 90 degrees again next Monday. 

 

Vermont October Wildly Warm, Wet, Especially Northwest Part Of State

October was warm, but rather cloudy, especially after
a record early season heat wave during the first week
of the month. This all made foliage season late.
This is a view of South Burlington, Vermont on Oct. 26

October, 2023 really re-wrote the weather history book in Vermont, especially around Burlington. 

 The month in Burlington was the fifth warmest and third wettest October in Burlington. On top of that, the high temperature of 86 degrees on October 4 set a new record high for the entire month. 

Elsewhere in Vermont, it wasn't quite as wet, but it sure was warm.  Towns across Vermont were consistently five to six degrees warmer than normal, which I'm sure that like Burlington, that puts them in the top ten list for October warmth. 

If anything, that early October heat burst was more intense in much of the rest of Vermont than in Burlington.  St. Johnsbury got up to 87 degrees for two days in a row. Woodstock got to 86 degrees three days in a row.

After that sunny hot spell, the rest of October settled into a rather cloudy, dreary, but still warm pattern. That is until Halloween, when Vermont finally got its first frost of the season. Again, record late timing for that. 

It's not surprising that October was so warm.  Autumns during El Nino patterns, which the world is under now, tend to be on the mild side in New England. Not always, but usually.

Northwestern Vermont was pretty much the wettest spot in the Green Mountain State during October. 

That's because two big storms accounted for most of the rain during October, and both storms focused on the Champlain Valley. 

Burlington's top ten showing in the list of wettest Octobers seems to be part of a trend. Five of the top six wettest Octobers have occurred since 2006.

Montpelier, for a change was actually a smidge on the dry side. Rainfall in October, 2023 there was 3.37 inches, about a third of an inch below normal.

Rutland was just at normal with four inches for the month. St. Johnsbury had 4.51 inches of rain, which is a little over a half inch on the plus side. 

Bennington managed a rather wet October with 5.23 inches, which is 1.72 inches above normal. 

Like I say every month, I don't trust long range forecasts, but still, it feels like November could be shaping up to be quite different than recent months. 

It's starting out on the cold, and forecasts for the next couple weeks - if they verify - indicate a decent possibility of a colder than normal month. No guarantees on that, though. Forecasts beyond a week or so are iffy. And who knows what will happen during the second half of November.

November can really be a wild card in Vermont. Last year, we had our warmest November day on record. On the other hand, in November, 2019, winter cold and snow settled in by the second week of the month, with single digit temperatures by mid-month.  

Anything can happen. 

Soupy Air, Likely Heat Advisories And Local Flood Risks Through Tuesday In Vermont

Here's an interesting visible satellite photo taken shortly
after 5:30 p.m Thursday. The white blob in southwestern
Vermont is a severe thunderstorm. Severe storm clouds
tower up to 40,000 feet in the air. So you can see 
the dark areas in southeastern Vermont and northwestern
Massachusetts. Those areas were in the shadow of these
very tall storms. 

UPDATE 3:30 p.m. Friday.

I anticipated this, and now it's official. Heat Advisory in effect for parts of Vermont over the weekend. 

It's a long lasting one, starting at 1 p.m. Saturday and going to 8 p.m. Sunday.

I think the National Weather Service is letting it go that long since Saturday night won't offer all that much relief. Many of us will stay in the humid low 70s at night. 

As far as torrential rain and flash flood chances, they're nil for the rest of the day and night in northern Vermont as that boundary of sorts has made it in, shutting off storms. 

There's a few isolated storms forming in the southern half of Vermont, and it's still possible one or two could be heavy rainers.

Only isolated storms are in the forecast Saturday, but one or two spots could get deluged. Again, it will be isolated.

There's a slightly better chance of storms Sunday with the best chance of heavy rain still looking like Monday and Monday night

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

As expected, the air turned soupy as hell in Vermont yesterday, and we're stuck with this sticky air into Monday.

The incredibly high humidity for this time of year sets the stage for torrential downpours here and there. until more refreshing air finds its way to northern New England. 

It's classic flash flood weather, but I don't want to sound too alarming.  It just means that in some slow moving showers and storms in this weather regime, you can really pile up a lot of rain fast.  Few of us will actually see real trouble from this.  But there's a chance of local flash flooding into early next week. 

You can tell the risk is still quite low because I don't see any flash flood watches or alerts for anywhere around Vermont. But the risk is not zero. 

Just by walking outside, you can tell if there's the right trigger, the rain will come down in buckets. 

 When I walked out into my yard last evening, it really felt like air you could wear. You could actually kind of see the air.

It's only a slight exaggeration to say that I wasn't sure whether I was walking across my yard or swimming across it.  

Yesterday, clouds helped prevent both torrential thunderstorms and dangerous heat from building across the northern half of Vermont. But it southern Vermont, it got torrid, and the reward for that heat was some hefty thunderstorms, some of which carried warnings of damaging winds and such. 

The storm was particularly ferocious in the southwestern of Vermont, with lots of trees and wires down, some blocking roads, in Pawlet, Arlington and Bennington.  We have reports of similar damage in southeastern Vermont, around Newfane, Jamaica and Rockingham. 

These storms also dumped a good inch or more of rain easily in less than an hour. If those areas get additional torrential rains today, there could be some water issues there. 

More storms developed in the humid air this morning.  Residents around Hinesburg and Huntington awoke early this morning to quite a lightning barrage.  This storm dumped up to 1.5 inches of rain in a short period of time in parts of Chittenden County. The National Weather Service in South Burlington said the downpours fell just short of them needing to issue any flood advisories. However, they are watching this area in case they receive more buckets of rain later today.    

The root of all this potential trouble with water is a sluggish atmosphere and weather fronts lining up the "wrong" way. 

Most of the time, cold fronts that pass through Vermont are oriented in a generally north to south arrangement, while the air flow pushing the front is more or less west to east.

Which means that if that cold front can manage to create heavy rains, it won't last long in any one spot. The cold front will zip on through, and drier, rain-free air is hot on its tail. 

With the current weather set up, cold fronts or just weak nothing burger boundaries are kind of oriented west to east. So is the general air flow. So these fronts press southward only very slowly. Meanwhile, showers and storms move along the front or just ahead of it, west to east. That's the training I've been talking about. Storms repeatedly go over the same spot, and you get tons of rain.

Especially if the air just ahead of these fronts or boundaries is super humid. Which is what we're dealing with now. 

Then there's this added bonus. Around this time of year, the jet stream often retreats well north into Canada. 'Which means there's nothing to hurry anything along. So if thunderstorms form in the humid air, they don't move very fast. They dump a lot of rain in the same spot

On top of all that, there's something called backbuilding. Here's how that works: Say you have a mountain that creates a strong enough updraft to set off a thunderstorm.  That storm starts to move on to the east, but the updraft continues, so the storm keeps redeveloping over that same mountain, over and over until you get inches of rain.

There's no telling whether any of these scenarios will develop over the next few days anywhere in Vermont, but there's that low, but not zero risk that it could.

 Some of the heaviest ones today, especially if a particular spot gets several downpours in a row, could produce some ponding on the roads. There's a weak excuse for a weather front around Vermont now, oriented west to east, with showers moving along it.   As I write this early today, more downpours were lined up in New York, ready to come across Lake Champlain and hit north central Vermont again. Just like the earlier downpour. 

The weather front wannabe is is slowly sagging southward across Vermont while dissipating, so downpours will probably get more scattered, especially north.  So, I have a feeling this morning's downpours will begin to wane a bit, especially north.

Also, you might get some gullywashers, damage to the side of gravel roads or driveways, that sort of thing. Nothing widespread, though.  

In the hot, humid air that will be over us all weekend, there won't be much there to trigger thunderstorms. So they will probably be few and far between both days. 

However, isolated, slow moving storms could form in the updrafts in the mountains, which could unleash more torrents of rain in just one or two spots. In any event, take it easy this weekend. The combination of heat and humidity will make vigorous outdoor activity rather dangerous. 

Another front, a "real" cold front, looks like it will slowly shift north to south across Vermont early in the week.  Again, the flow will be parallel to the front, so that means we could get those "training" storms again, one after another over the same spots. 

We'll need to wait until we get closer to the beginning of the week to see how that all shakes out. 

Another "Never-Ending Summer" Regime In Vermont; Tropical Storm Nicholas

Now that it's mid-September, gardens around my St. 
Albans, Vermont home are definitely past their prime, but
at least I'm not worrying about frost yet as warm
days are in the forecast. 

By mid-September in Vermont we usually start to talk about the risk of frost, especially outside the Champlain Valley. 

That's mid-September frost talk has been becoming less common in recent years, as climate change in general makes our weather warmer.  That's not to say we'll never see mid-September frost again. We will, for sure. 

Just not this year.

It has stayed on the mild side so far all month. True, the average temperature so far this month in Burlington has come out nearly normal, but that's the newly introduced "normal", which is above historical levels.

Plus, signs point toward generally warm weather continuing perhaps to the end of the month. That's not to say there won't be a few cool days thrown in there. But for now, expect warmth, and on some days over the next week or two, summer type warmth. And maybe a bit of humidity.

Before we get there, we'll have to endure the "coldest" night so far this season tonight. It'll get down into the 40s, which is so average for mid-September, really to be ridiculous. Even the notorious cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom should stay at or above 40 degrees overnight. Areas near Lake Champlain should hold in the 50s.

That leads us into a long period of warm weather. Expect daily highs in the 70s each day through at least the next week with lows in the 50s.  Warmer valleys will hit 80 on some of these days and in those banana belt towns, overnight lows will stay above 60 on some nights.  That kind of weather used to be average for mid summer.

As usual, rain last night missed northern Vermont but hit the far south of the state. A band of thunderstorms zipped east along Route 9 overnight, dumping an inch or more of rain down there. The rainfall entirely missed pretty much everyone from Rutland and Windsor counties north.

Looking ahead, other than the warmth, the only interesting weather will come along on Wednesday, courtesy of a cold front.  The "cold" air behind the front won't be chilly at all, you won't notice much of a difference between the air before and after the cold front.

What the cold front lacks in temperature change will more than make up for itself in energy and a ready supply of moisture  This front reminds a little of the one that came through last Wednesday, which produced a slow moving band of heavy rain with embedded strong to locally severe thunderstorms. 

This one won't be exactly the same, but will have similarities. There will be locally heavy rain, and the risk of severe thunderstorms. At this point, the risk of severe weather looks like it'll be directed toward the southeastern half of Vermont and on into southern New England.

There's still time for adjustments in that forecast, so we'll have more details tomorrow and Wednesday morning on any nastiness from that system.

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS

This tropical storm formed in the western Gulf of Mexico Sunday and was east of the southern tip of Texas early this  morning.   Top winds are 60 mph, and this storm might strengthen to hurricane levels by the time it moves ashore somewhere on the mid-Texas coast tonight.

Wind isn't the big concern with this one, though. It's rain.  Nicholas will move inland and slowly move northward through eastern Texas then eventually turn right into Louisiana later this week. 

Any winds will quickly diminish, but forecasts call for 8 to 16 inches of rain in the storm zone, with local amounts up to 20 inches. This, not surprisingly, brings a high risk of flash flooding today, and probably tomorrow to much of coastal Texas, including Houston.

Onshore winds during this will send surges from the Gulf of Mexico toward Houston. This will help prevent flood waters from draining from this vast urban area.  While this won't be as bad as the epic floods in Houston from Hurricane Harvey, it will be bad enough.

Plus, Louisiana doesn't catch a break does it.  Seems almost every tropical system ends up there.  Louisiana is saturated from Hurricane Ida earlier this summer, and they've obviously just started to pick up the pieced from that hurricane. 

While there won't be any new wind damage in Louisiana from what will then be the remnants of Nicholas, flash flooding will soak much of that state this week. 

Like they need it.

Northern Vermont Keeps Missing Rain (Continued)

Nice wet, billowing clouds earlier this week in northern 
Vermont, but only brief showers, not the heavy stuff that
has erased drought in southern Vermont. 

 The Northeastern United States is by any definition, soggy.

Many cities are on their way to having the wettest July on record. Here in Vermont, the month's wet pattern extends through the southern half of the state.  

While the pattern is super wet on paper for the north, too, the rain has miraculously avoided that part of the state.  The drought goes on. 

The area that seems to avoid the rain includes northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire, parts of interior Maine and southern Quebec.

Sure, the pattern has allowed for some rain to finally fall in the north. But it's still running a little below normal. Every opportunity for rain this month - and there have been - gets screwed up across the north. 

A weather front doesn't set up close enough. A punch of dry air in the upper atmosphere comes through at the wrong time. A push of maritime air from the Atlantic Ocean comes in just in time to squelch some incoming storms.

Wednesday, the strongest storms and the heaviest rain hit southern Vermont, again, as the best instability stayed mostly south of Route 4. 

The priced the south paid was in the form of locally severe storms, with trees reported down in Wilmington and Vernon.

Drought hangs tough in northern Vermont (orange
shading) as heavy rains that keep hitting most of the 
Northeast steadfastly avoid the north. 

In the north, it was all pretty clouds Wednesday, with  some even prettier sun showers scattered about, but no soaking rains.  It did rain here in St. Albans this week.  A little. We had a half inch of rain over two days. But the ground is still dry, and the rivers and streams have little water in them. 

Thursday was dry, as we know. At least it was a nice summer day. 

Forecasts that look impressive for rain in northern Vermont a few days out don't pan out as the day draws near. 

For instance, earlier this week, it looked as if the front limping through today would give the whole state some serious rains. 

Today's forecast for rain? Yawn. 

Just some quick hit little showers here and there this morning.  A brief burst of rain passed through St. Albans, Vermont as a wrote this at 6:30 a.m today, so yay.

It won't last, as radar indicates, so maybe we'll get a tenth of an inch or so.  I'll take anything, of course, but I would have liked more. Some places in northern Vermont won't even be lucky enough to get a brief shower like I just did.  

Next up,  another super soaker Saturday night in southern Vermont and central and southern New England, with possible renewed flooding. In the north, meh. Maybe it will rain a little. 

These factors that have prevented rains north of Route 2 this  month all seem unrelated, but I have to wonder why it can't and won't really rain in the north, which is now the only part of the region that needs. 

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor, issued Thursday, tells the story. Drought and dry conditions in southern Vermont have eased or gone away altogether. In northern Vermont, the drought hangs tough. 

The drought in northern Vermont, already among the longest on record, appears as if it will go on indefinitely. 

The weather pattern that favors the very wet weather in the Northeast will continue into early next week before trending drier. 

Evening sunshine in St. Albans, Vermont Thursday after
a shower dropped a small amount of rain.

As noted, the next very wet storm for the Northeast will affect all of Vermont Saturday into Sunday morning. 

Current forecasts call for maybe a quarter inch of rain up by the Quebec border, but the way things are going, I bet they'll reduce that expected rainfall by the time the event draws closer.

Central and southern Vermont will get a good drenching - an inch or more. 

But, of course, northern areas will miss out again while the soaking continues south.  Some forecasts give us a good shot of rain in north of Route 2 on Tuesday, but we know what will happen to the forecast by Monday.

Pfft. 

You might remember the song, "It Never Rains In Southern California."  I guess you could also do a sequel, "It Never Rains In Enosburg,"  Or Swanton. Or Norton. Or Lowell. 

I guess you can have fun with those revised lyrics as you watch your well go dry and watch your neighbors down in Boston muck out their flooded basements.