Flood Threat In Vermont Diminishes For Next Storm, But Does Not Entirely Disappear.

More rain on the way, but it doesn't look like enough
to cause more flooding. Most places should see an
inch or less Sunday night and Monday, though a 
couple places could see locally higher amounts. 

Weather forecasters are a little more relaxed about the chances of flooding with the Sunday night and Monday.  

We're still going to get a bunch of rain Sunday night and Monday. And we hope you like humid weather because we have plenty of it coming up. But overall, we're in the midst of a decent summer weekend. We've been lucky with these weekends. 

REST OF TODAY

A good summer day is underway once again. We've had a lot of Saturdays like this. The sun will be out most of the time. As far as rain goes, there's the slightest of chances of an isolated showers over the mountains, but that's it. 

Highs will top out in the mid-80s for most of us. It is kind of humid out there, but it won't be as oppressive as it could be. 

SUNDAY

We should make it through most of the day without rain or thunderstorms. Especially if you're in the southeastern half of Vermont. A slow moving "cold front" will be coming approaching grudgingly fro the west. A have "cold front" in quotations because it won't really drop our temperatures and the drop in humidity when it eventually comes through will be barely noticeable, 

It will get close enough to set off some scattered showers and non-severe storms late in the afternoon north and west, but not everyone will get wet. It'll be in the 80s again, and you'll notice the humidity getting worse. 

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

This is when the bulk of the rain and downpours come through.  There had been some concerns that a sluggish, weak but very wet storm would stall nearby, giving parts of our area another drenching and flood, like what happened in New York's Hudson Valley earlier this week, 

Instead, it looks like things will slowly progress through, so that - fingers crossed - it doesn't rain hard enough or long enough to set off any flooding. There's still a chance some locally heavy downpours cause problems, but overall, the chance of anything major look low, 

The rain should be more good than bad.  Some places, especially in the Northeast Kingdom didn't receive all that much rain this past week. As it stands now, it looks like almost everybody in Vermont should receive a decent half inch to an inch, with maybe locally higher amounts. 

I supposed there's a slight chance the forecast could once again flip flop back to a rainier, somewhat more dangerous scenario. So far, I don't see that, but of course, we'll update as necessary.

REST OF NEXT WEEK

The dog days of summer I've been talking about will continue. The weather set up with an offshore Bermuda high means very warm and humid air will keep coming at us. Tuesday will be the nicest day with a slight dip in the humidity and low to no rain chances.

The rest of the week will be partly cloudy, humid, with an ever-present chance of showers and storms. It's hard at this point to pick out which day will be the rainiest. It depends on the location of any little disturbances in that muggy flow of air. 

The clouds and showers should keep us under 90 degrees (with possibly one or two odd exceptions) But the humidity will more than make up for the lack of super hot air. Um, enjoy, I guess?  

Dog Days Of Summer Have Arrived In Vermont, Downpours Thrown In Sunday/Monday Too

A bumblebee enjoys a rose bloom this morning in 
St. Albans, Vermont amid our spell of humid air. Sticky
days will continue for at least a week along with
risks of showers and storms. 

It hasn't exactly been hot recently, but the air has felt rather sticky, here in Vermont and that state of affairs will continue for quite awhile. 

It's the dog days of summer, the nearly annual spell in which we're stuck in a long period of humid, warm air, with occasional spikes to a hot day or two mixed with rainy, thundery periods as well.

We're going to sweat it out in moderately warm air, and humidity that's moderately high until Sunday, when it will get even worse.Most of us will stay rain-fee under Sunday, when the weather forecast begins to turn iffy. Let's get into the details:   

TODAY

Partly sunny with that humidity is the bottom line.  Highs should get into the low 80s.

 noticed a couple showers early today in Addison and Rutland counties. That hints at enough instability in the air to trigger maybe an isolated shower or storm today mostly over the mountains. The vast majority of us will stay dry. though, and whatever does form shouldn't be scary. Just garden variety stuff.  

SATURDAY

Rinse and repeat. But it will be just a bit warmer as temperatures rise well into the 80s. 

SUNDAY

Here's where it gets questionable. South winds, which you'll especially notice in the Champlain Valley, will increase ahead of the next weather system. Those wind  will pump even more humid air our way, so Sunday will feel even more oppressive.

As it stands now, it looks like some showers and storms could develop in the afternoon and evening, especially in the northwestern half of the state. We still have questions on the timing and intensity of this thing, and those questions deepen Sunday night and Monday

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

It seems like the incoming front and weather disturbance will want to slow down near New England. We're pretty sure we'll see some heavy downpours around, but we don't know how long they'll last or just how heavy they'll be in any particular spot. 

The computer models have been windshield wipering between an ominous forecast of heavy rain lingering over the region for a long time, or downpours staying long enough to give us a harmless, beneficial soaking without a real risk of flooding. 

This morning's runs of computer forecast don't look all that ominous, but there's still a risk of locally heavy rain. And other model runs today might paint yet a different picture. 

In this morning's forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said they're hoping for  better, more concise guidance tomorrow on what might happen with this system. By then, well have better upper air sampling of how things are shaping. So stay tuned.  

BEYOND MONDAY

Whatever this system doesn't, it won't be one of those nice summer cold fronts that flush out the humidity for a few days. Instead it will stay warm, and probably get warmer. Temperatures might hold in the 70s amid steamy air Monday if there's a lot of clouds and rain. 

If we're lucky, it could briefly turn slightly less humid next Tuesday, but building warmth and humidity quickly return. It looks like a long stretch of very warm, humid weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week. 

Vermont (Mostly Dodged A Flood Bullet While Nearby New York's Hudson Valley Is A Flood Disaster Zone

Rescue operations during yesterday's big flood in
New York's Capitol District. Vermont dodged a 
bullet as the bulk of the heavy rain fell just
to the west of southern Vermont

 Phew!

Vermont is waking up to a little flood damage in the southern end of the state, but nothing catastrophic. 

The big flood came right up to our doorstep - taking out homes and business and roads and cars in the Hudson Valley just a short drive from the Bennington, Vermont area.

Nearly a foot of rain fell on some communities just south of Albany. Albany itself had just under seven inches of rain out of this. 

Rainfall totals in parts of far southern Vermont were impressive, too. A handful of towns in the far southern Green Mountains reported storm totals of around five inches. 

Any damage to southern Vermont is overshadowed by what happened in the Albany Capitol District, but I'm sure there's some road and driveway damage in some steep areas of the extreme southern Green Mountains. 

I saw reports of the Deerfield River in Wilmington running very high, and the Beaver Brook in that town over its banks. A sink hold formed on
 East Main Street in Wilmington. 

Vermont definitely suffers flood PTSD after the horrific floods of 2023 and 2024 and the lesser, but still destructive Northeast Kingdom flash flood of 2025. I saw a WPTZ report of nervousness in Montpelier on Wednesday as the devastating flood of 2023 is still fresh in everyone's memory. 

Montpelier was never forecast to have serious flood problems with this storm. And it turns out they only received 0.63 inches of rain through early this morning, which is less than had been expected.

To be on the safe side, the Vermont Urban Search and Rescue Task Force deployed two squads, one in Wilmington and the other in Ludlow to respond to any water crises.

So, anytime there's any sort of flood threat in Vermont, people get nervous. 

Believe it or not, Vermont isn't entirely free from flood threats over the coming days, though I'd emphasize that for now, it's just a weather system that bears watching Sunday and Monday. There's a chance that we could see some heavy rain on those days, but it's way too soon to say whether it will be just the usual brief summer downpours or something else.

Let's get into the daily details

TODAY

Kind of a grungy summer day with only a little sun here and there and an ever-present chance of showers. Much like yesterday, it'll be kind of humid but not that warm with highs in the 70s. 

The storm that brought the Hudson Valley flood is not entirely out of our hair, though the torrential rains associated with it are gone.  So many areas will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less today. The Connecticut River Valley, which especially north of White River Junction largely missed out on the rain, could get up to a quarter inch today. No biggie.

FRIDAY

 A nicer day, though still on the humid side. We'll have a fair amount of sun, a slight chance of a shower for storm, but most of us will stay dry. It should get into the low 80s in most of Vermont

SATURDAY

Typical summer weather continues. Still on the humid side, with sunshine. Like the previous days, there might be some haze in the air from wildfires out west. And a very slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm thrown in. Highs once again in the 80s.

SUNDAY/MONDAY

Here's where we potentially run into trouble. Some models have a humid summer cold front come through with the usual showers and thunderstorms and brief torrents of rain. If that scenario plays out, then we're fine. 

However, some models slow things down, and develop another small, sluggish but very wet storm somewhere over or near New England or New York. If that happens, we could have more flood problems somewhere in the North Country. 

For now, don't worry about it, since we don't know yet how this will play out. But you should listen to updated forecasts as we get closer to Sunday and Monday, in the off chance things go south again. 

 

Flood Threat Continues Today In Southern Vermont And Southern New England

Forecast map for additional rain this morning through 
tomorrow. Some areas in far southern Vermont could
receive five or more inches of rain (dark red shading)
Amounts taper off dramatically as you head north. 

 If there's flooding in Vermont from this rainy episode, it will be today. And there's still a high chance of at least some trouble in southern Vermont. 

Late yesterday and overnight, the moisture flow went south to north, up through western Vermont and the Champlain Valley.

The rainfall was beneficial, especially in northwestern Vermont. More than an inch of rain fell in many areas as far north as St. Albans. 

So far, there's been no big flooding in the Green Mountain State, though street flooding occurred in Bennington yesterday afternoon. That town had received a storm total of 2.33 inches of rain as of 7 a.m. today. 

Flash flood warnings were in effect just to the southwest, especially around the Albany Capitol District.

Hardly any rain has fallen in eastern Vermont, especially the Northeast Kingdom. Up there, some places have only had a trace of rain.  

The moisture feed this morning is going to shift and intensify. The fire hose of deep moisture that was going north to south will rearrange itself to a southeast to northwest flow. That will direct the very wet air smack into the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. The air rising up over the mountains will probably unleash periods of heavy rain. 

It still looks like the far southern Green Mountains will receive three to as much as five inches of rain today. There might be pockets that get a little more than that.  

Far southern Vermont remains under a moderate risk, alert level three out of four for flooding today. Even in places that through dawn had received little rain. The potential danger zone encompasses pleasant far southern Vermont villages like Wardsboro, Wilmington, Halifax, Readsboro, maybe Brattleboro and Newfane. 

Larger waterways to watch are Whetstone Brook around Brattleboro and the Deerfield River around Wilmington. A lot of the trouble today will come from small creeks and streams whose high water could demolish culverts or steep gravel roads.

Again, this won't be on the level of July, 2023, as rainfall rates shouldn't be as intense as they were then.  But it's still something to take seriously. 

The rainfall in southern Vermont will peak this afternoon into this evening, so I'd say the best chance of flooding would start from mid-afternoon and go well into the night.  Rainfall rates during the heaviest downpours could be in the one to two inch range. 

It helps that it's been dry recently. But rainfall at that rate in steep terrain can easily set off flash floods. I'm not suggesting everyone in far southern Vermont will see a flood today. But those areas bullseyed by the heaviest rain might. It's impossible to tell in advance who that will be,

People in far southern Vermont who live in a flood prone area should have a to-go bag ready, in case they need to bid a hasty retreat from rapidly rising floodwaters. Have more than one way to receive flash flood warnings so you know right away if trouble is looming. 

CENTRAL VERMONT

The fire hose of moisture will hit the Green Mountains in central Vermont, too, especially in Rutland and Windsor Counties. The flow wet air from the Atlantic Ocean might not be as intense or long lasting there. But we could see enough to touch off some flash flooding there. 

NOAA has this area under a slight risk - level two out of four on the alert scale for flash flooding. 

So you'll want to keep an eye out on small streams and brooks in towns like Ludlow, Cavendish, Springfield, Shrewsbury, Mount Holly, Chester, Weston, those kinds of areas.  Once you head north toward Northfield, Barre, Montpelier, and that area, there's a slight chance of a local flash flood, but I'm pretty much doubting anything will happen there, unless there's some sort of tremendous surprise. 

NORTHWEST VERMONT

That south to north flow of humid air yesterday and last night surprised us with some decent rains. Which were badly needed. As of 7 a.m. Burlington had scored 1.49 inches of rain. As noted, the orientation of the rain band is going to shift. 

Starting mid-morning or so, rain will turn  more sporadic and lighter. I don't see a flood threat up in the northwest, despite the heavy rain last night and early this morning,  some rain today and tonight, of course, but nothing to worry about. 

NORTHEAST KINGDOM

You need the rain and you're not really going to get it. So by the end of this episode, part of Vermont will see flooding, and part of Vermont will be desperate for rain. It'll rain a little up there in the NEK today through Thursday, but total amounts look to be less than a quarter inch in many areas.

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

Widespread urban and small stream flooding is expected today in much of that region. 

Flash Flood Risk Growing In Vermont, And Rest Of The Northeast

A strong thunderstorm seen here approaching St. Albans,.
Vermont from the southeast, instead of the west like
we'd usually see from storms. This storm was part of 
an opening salvo of storms that is bringing a 
flood threat to southern Vermont through tomorrow 

 I was afraid this would happen. 

The flash flood risk is growing notably in parts of Vermont, and a large chunk of the Northeast. 

A flood watch is now in effect for central and southern Vermont. The areas under the watch can expect one to three inches of rain through tomorrow evening. That doesn't sound so bad, until you consider there could well be some streaks of three to five inch amounts in that zone. 

The flood risk has already started.

If you're in the southern half of Vermont - especially if you're in or near the Green Mountains, prepare for local areas of flash flooding anytime between now and during the day tomorrow. 

This weather setup reminds me a little of the way things arranged themselves for the big July flood of 2023,  That said, I don't want to give you a flareup of PTSD.  This weather pattern IS NOT as intense or as capable of producing widespread like it did in July, 2023,  But I expect at least some pockets of flood damage in the Green Mountain State. 

THE UPDATE

All this is based on weather data that came in late this morning and early afternoon. That data doesn't exactly paint a pretty picture. Rainfall will be heavier in many areas than we thought early this morning. 

 Early this afternoon, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center extended a moderate risk of flash flooding between now and tomorrow morning through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and southwestern New England into far southern Vermont. 

A moderate risk, level three out of four, almost guarantees at least some flash flooding. A thick moisture feed combining with the instability brought on by a pesky upper level low over the Northeast could produce as much as five inches of rain within six hours in some local areas within the moderate risk area. 

The slight risk of flash flooding, level 2 out of 4 risk level, now extends north almost to Route 2. There's a good chance of some instance of local flooding in central Vermont between now and tomorrow night, especially along the east slopes of the Green Mountains. 

A marginal risk, one out of four covers far northern Vermont for the chance of very isolated flooding. 

Thunderstorms blossomed rapidly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains early this afternoon. The last one to develop seemed to come out of almost nowhere in Franklin County in the mid-afternoon and it was strong enough to carry a severe thunderstorm warning. It also came from an unusual direction - from the southeast rather than the west they way storms usually do.

That motion is a clue that we're getting a lot of moisture off the Atlantic Ocean for the atmosphere to play with. 

The storms were moving right along at a brisk pace, so any one storm wouldn't drop much rain in a particular place. The trouble will come if and where multiple stores move over the same place over and over again.

I have noticed that downpours in far southern Vermont have been looking pretty persistent this afternoon, but so far, as of 4 p.m., there were not flood alerts in effect. But this is the place to watch through this evening, as these storms will feature the heaviest rain of this whole three-day rainy event.  

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

The developing area of low pressure heading toward New York and southern New England will set up a sort of fire hose of moisture moving southeast to northwest from southern New England through southern Vermont, then weakening as it moves further north into upper Vermont and the Adirondack. 

This set up will really soak the summits and eastern slopes of the southern and maybe central Green Mountains, That will keep the flood risk going through most of tomorrow. The rain might not be as heavy as the locally torrential downpours today, but the rain could easily be strong enough to keep the flood risk going, 

The flood risk will diminish as you go north toward the Canadian border

For now, storm totals look like they'll run three to five inches in far southern Vermont, with local amounts as high as six or seven inches especially in the mountains. So you can see why this weather system is risky. 

The central Green Mountains look to have one to three inches, with perhaps locally higher amounts.  Northwest Vermont should get maybe three quarters on an inch, give or take, again with locally higher amounts. 

The Northeast Kingdom will largely miss out, as forecasts stand now. Some places up there might receive only a quarter inch of rain. 

Meanwhile, most of southern New England is under a flood alert through tomorrow, 

CAVEATS/WHAT TO DO

As always, things could change one way or another overnight. Heavy storms like this can shift the heaviest rain a few miles in unexpected directions, which could affect who gets the worst of flooding, if any. 

So, if you live in southern Vermont, be ready for at least some localized flash floods. Much of this could happen after dark, and it's hard to see washouts and flooding ahead when you're driving at night. 

If you live in a flood prone area, especially where water can rush off of steep slopes, have a to-go bag ready, just in case. You might have to leave at the drop of a hat.  

Again, not everyone in southern Vermont will have a flash flood. But it's a big enough threat to stay on your toes through tomorrow. 

We've already had a few instances of flash flooding this summer in Vermont. Looks like this will be another. In our climate changed world, this kind of thing has become more likely than it was a few decades ago

 

Vermont Remains On The Edge Of Wild Weather Pattern; Slight Flood Threat But Not As Bad As Further 'South

The first rains of our wet period are seen yesterday
over Lake Champlain near Alburgh. Some areas of
Vermont will see a couple inches or more of rain, with
a localized flood threat. The Northeast Kingdome
looks like it will largely miss out

 As you've seen in the headlines, there's been a lot of rough weather in the United States this summer. 

One long stripe of the nation has really gotten nailed. It goes from Minnesota and Wisconsin, through the Great Lakes, into the Ohio Valley and finally the Mid-Atlantic States.

That zone has repeatedly gotten some horrible thunderstorms and even tornadoes. Repeatedly. With no real end in sight.

Yesterday, a nasty tornado swept through parts of northeast Wisconsin, trashing large sections of Menasha, Neenah and Appleton.  Also Monday, severe thunderstorms packing 80 mph winds and possible tornadoes harassed the Chicago area. Flooding was also reported. 

Today, severe thunderstorms will hit the Mid-Atlantic states again. More flash flooding is a risk, too, especially in the New York City metro area. 

 Here in Vermont, we've mostly gotten glancing blows from all this wild, weird summer weather. Sometimes, it does mange to hit us, like when we had that pair of tornadoes in June, or those destructive microbursts in the Northeast Kingdom and southern Vermont earlier this month. But we haven't gotten the worst of it in the Green Mountain State. 

This time around, we're on the edge of the "fun" today and tomorrow. We don't have to worry about severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding is a bit of a threat, especially in southern Vermont, but - fingers crossed - this doesn't look like it will be anything widespread or super destructive.

Though I'm pretty relaxed about the forecast, this kind of weather system can pull surprises. Things won't turn out exactly as the current predictions. I'll give it a go as to what will happen, based on what the National Weather Service is telling us this morning. 

TODAY

Forecasted rain fall through Friday morning, from the
National Weather Service. Note that rainfall 
amounts will be more variable than depicted here. 

There were some showers and thunderstorms and downpours yesterday, mostly in the Adirondacks, bu they were pretty widely scattered. 

That kind of stuff will be more widespread today. Especially the further west and south you go.

Based on radar images at 9 a.m. today. you'd think a big dose of needed rain would be starting in Vermont very soon. There was a big stripe of rain, with a few embedded downpours in the central Adirondack, extending down to places just west of Albany, New York.

But this stuff was just barely crawling eastward. And it looks like it will weaken as it does so.

However, more showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as that slow weather system continues to press grudgingly eastward today. 

It will probably rain most places today, though showers and thunderstorms will be especially hit and maybe mostly miss in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Areas south and west of Interstate 89 have the best chance of seeing rain and downpours, possibly multiple hits. That's especially true down in far southern Vermont and up toward  Albany/Glens Falls/Lake George, New York and on its the Adirondacks, 

This area has the best chances of local flash floods today, though I'd emphasize that the chances of that happening are pretty low. Mostly because it's been so dry lately. Still, if any one place gets nailed by numerous downpours, one right after the other, then there could be a local high water problem

TONIGHT

Showers and storms will continue off an on. Since the wet airflow will come from the south and east, off the Atlantic, the best chance of heavier rain is on the east slopes of the southern Green Mountains and in the east slopes of the Adirondacks. 

Again, no widespread flooding, but there could be a pocket here or there the could have a creek or small stream overflow enough to damage a gravel road or driveway, or possibly damage a particularly unlucky  house. 

WEDNESDAY

By tomorrow morning, the center of our sluggish storm will be somewhere in the general vicinity of New York City, give or take. That set up will keep sending waves of showers northward into Vermont.  Again, the best chance of heavier rain is in southern Vermont. And maybe the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains maybe as far north as Sugarbush. 

If any flooding happens, it'll be in southern Vermont, especially in the steep slopes of the southern Greens. Again, so far at least, we're not expecting anything widespread. Definitely not a repeat of 2023, as it looks now. Even so, the creeks, small streams and brooks in southern Vermont especially will need to be watched. 

A saving grace is it looks like it will be too cloudy and too cool to allow any torrential thunderstorms to develop. So rainfall rates won't be as likely to produce flash flooding as we would see with a lot of thunderstorms. 

Once again, he Northeast Kingdom looks like it will be more protected from the rains. The White Mountains of New Hampshire might help block some of the Atlantic Ocean moisture that will be flowing into New England. 

THURSDAY

The stupid, slow, meandering storm will begin to depart. We'll still have some showers around, but the risk of heavy rain will diminish.

As noted, the rainfall will be super variable. One town might see more than two or even three inches of rain out of this, while a few towns over will see maybe a half inch to an inch. 

Broad brush, many areas south of Route 4 should get more that two inches of rain between now and Thursday. Some spots in the southern Green Mountains could easily go past three inches, maybe even approach four inches in isolated spots.

Central Vermont in general would receive one to 1.5 inches. Most of northern Vermont should receive an inch or less. Some places in the Northeast Kingdom could easily receive less than a half inch of rain, 

So, some places in Vermont will get too much rain, while other places not enough, It's still very dry in  northern Vermont, so a half inch of rain won't cut it. We'll need more, But at least the rain will cut back a burgeoning fire hazard. Brush fires were reported in recent days in Essex Junction and Fairfax. There probably were a few other small blazes breaking out in other parts of the state. 

Fortunately for the north and unfortunately for soon to be soggy southern Vermont, the weather pattern looks pretty active, though slow moving.  There's another potentially wet system that might come at us later Sunday or Monday. 

A Wet Spell Coming To Vermont: Some Risk Of Flash Flooding; Far North Might Miss Out

National Weather Service forecast map. Through Thursday
morning. If this forecast holds, the southern half of 
Vermont would get more than an inch of rain, with
local amounts much higher. Northern Vermont 
looks like it will get less. 

Today is dawning as it did the past couple of days, sunny, a little hazy from atmospheric wildfire smoke in the air.  

According to WCAX meteorologist Gunnar Consul said that Sunday was the exact midpoint between Burlington's average last and spring snowfall. So, we're in the midsummer doldrums. 

Which means slow moving, sluggish weather systems. 

For most of us, today will be a relatively nice day. But if you were a geek watching weather radar yesterday, you saw some slow moving showers and thunderstorms in the Adirondacks. There's not much motion of the atmosphere so they kind of sat there. 

The same state of affairs will happen today, and that introduces a rainy stretch that will lead to the risk of some localized flooding over the next few days. I'm absolutely not in panic mode like I was before  the big summer floods of 2023 and 2024. 

This episode doesn't look nearly as dire as that, unless there's some incredible surprise all the meteorologists are missing. But be on the lookout for the risk of some local flash flood problems that might erupt between today and Thursday.  

TODAY

The local flash flood risk starts today, almost exclusively in the Adirondacks. And maybe the western side of Lake Champlain in New York. That said, the chances of that happening are low. I just mentioned it because storms that develop won't move much. So they could dump huge amounts of rain in very small, pinpoint areas. That can be dangerous within the steep slopes of the Adirondacks.  

Here in Vermont, we'll watch the storms erupt here and there to our west, on the other side of Lake Champlain. Eventually, later this afternoon and early evening, a few showers or storms will erupt in Vermont, too. Most of us will stay dry and enjoy a nice day. Maybe 30 percent of us will get some rain by sunset. 

Because storms will be few and far between, it will get well into the 80s again today. 

TUESDAY

A much better chance of showers and thunderstorms, at least in the western half of the area. The disturbance causing the showery weather will have moved only slightly east. 

So there's an excellent chance of rain in southwest Vermont and New York. Much of central Vermont and the Champlain Valley has a very good chance of showers and storms. Again, since all the showers and storm will be moving very slowly, and some will contain torrential downpours.  All but the far Northeast Kingdom is under a marginal, level one of four risk of local flash floods. 

Northeastern Vermont should get through the day with just widely scattered showers and storms, so there risk os lover there. 

Again, this won't be a widespread problem. Since there will be sunshine, too, most of us should get into the low and mid 80s. The humidity will have risen somewhat, too. So it will be a partly cloudy, hazy, muggy day with the ever-present chance of showers and storms especially south and west of Interstate 89

WEDNESDAY

This will be the day with the best chance of rain. A nearly stalled weak but very wet storm will wander somewhere around New England and New York. This will set up a wet flow of air from the southeast - off the Atlantic Ocean - will push into New England, including Vermont. The heaviest rain will fall in southern Vermont, especially along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

We'll have to watch whichever spots ended up with the heaviest rainstorms on Tuesday will have to be watched for local flash floods. All but far northern Vermont is once again in a marginal, level one out of four on the risk scale. Areas in far southern Vermont - along Route 9 - are in a level 2 slight risk zone, as is most of southern New England. 

Areas in far northern Vermont that really need the rain look like they might miss out. It will rain up there. Any rain is good, but as it looks now, it probably won't be a deep soaker. 

Rainfall will be highly variable as it always is with showers and thunderstorms. In general, current forecasts give southern Vermont an inch or two of rain, with generally an inch in central Vermont. Far northern Vermont looks to receive only a half inch or so. Nice, but not enough.

Overall, with all the clouds and rain, it will be cool, but humid, with temperatures hovering in the 70s

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

Lingering showers and rumbles of thunder as that slow, rambling storm slowly leaves. So it will be an unsettled, iffy day. Some showers might linger into Friday. But warm, rather sunny, kind of humid weather will linger Friday and Saturday. Another sluggish system looks like it might arrive Sunday with more showers and storms. 

Will The Vermont Rains Coming This Week Be Just What The Doctor Ordered Or Too Much Of A Good Thing?

Summer flowers this morning in St. Albans, Vermont.
The gardens are a bit parched and need rain. We'll
get some, but will it ultimately be too much?

Vermont is in for one more gorgeous summer day today. As previously advertised, this is one of the best weather weekends of the year. 

Today will be almost the same as yesterday, with highs in the 80s under generally sunny skies. There's a bit more wildfire smoke in the air than on Saturday ,but it shouldn't be thick enough to be hard on our lungs or dim the sun much. 

It looks like rain chances will slowly increase between tomorrow and Tuesday. But the showers and thunderstorms will be slow to work into Vermont. And there are big questions as to whether we will have a lot of rain or practically nothing. 

Even though the bulk of the rain will come between Tuesday and Thursday, we still don't know the outcome. We will have one of these three options: 

1. At least parts of the state get cheated, and needed rain doesn't materialize to any great extent So far,  this looks like the least likely scenario

2..Repeated showers and thunderstorms, and possibly a period or two of just steady rain comes through over the course of three days. But the downpours are not too excessive. So we get a nice soaker, but no threat of flooding. This is exactly what we want, and the forecast is leaning slightly toward this scenario. 

3. Too much of a good thing. The downpours linger and become frequent and heavy. There's so much rain that we end up with flooding problems. At this point, if this scenario does happen, it looks like southern Vermont has the highest rise. 

Here's how forecasts think things will happen, including the questions. 

MONDAY

Some scattered showers and thunderstorms might develop during the afternoon.  They're most likely to focus on the Adirondacks. Over here in Vermont, most of us won't see any rain. Perhaps 20 to 30 percent of us will see some at least some rain. It will stay very warm, with highs probably well into the 80s. It'll be slightly more humid than today, but not insanely oppressive.

TUESDAY

Here's where the question marks in the forecast really start. Tuesday through Thursday, it will depend on whether an upper level area of low pressure forms and nearly stalls. And exactly where it happens. 

For Tuesday, it looks like it will be more humid, with a greater chance of showers and storms than on Monday. If the weather system comes in as just a disturbance, we'll have a fair number of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, but nothing incredible.

 If a an upper level low pressure system forms, the rain will be more widespread and the downpours heavier.  That could lead to isolated instances of relatively minor flash flooding. 

For now, Vermont, and most of New England for that matter, is under a marginal, level one out of four level risk of isolated flash floods. 

WEDNESDAY

This is the big question mark day. It'll pretty much definitely rain, at least somewhere in Vermont. The question is, will that upper level storm form, and if so, where will it meander?

If the upper level low does form and stall, somebody under or near it or could receive some flooding rain. Some weather models don't predict this storm to form. Others say it will, but it will happen south and east of Vermont, so no real trouble for us. A few other models have this thing over or near Vermont, opening the door for potentially torrential rains. 

I'm not sure which scenario will unfold. In fact, nobody is sure. So we'll have to wait and see.

For now, southern and central New England, including southern Vermont, is under a slight risk, level two out of four level risk of flash flooding. It's unusual to have that level risk three days in advance, so we'll have to watch this. 

I'm not raising flood alarms yet, but we'll have to watch this.

THURSDAY

Still some lingering showers, but whatever weather system will be harassing us will be starting to move out.  

As always, we'll see how this develops.  It is one of those situations in which we won't know how this will play out until we get much closer to the event. 

Gorgeous Vermont Weather To Last Through The Weekend

Despite dry conditions, a rogue petunia emerges from a 
crack between asphalt and an old timber between my
driveway and front deck in St. Albans, Vermont. The
flower will see sunshine, but no rain through the weekend.

 It was another cool morning in Vermont with many spots down in the mid and upper 40s again so you should have had another good sleeping night. 

This launches us into yet another great summer weekend. We've had several good weather weekends this summer, so this is has been one of the better warm seasons we've had.

The next couple of days will feature very warm to borderline hot afternoons, with  pretty tame humidity. So, the beaches, hiking trails and cremee stands will be pretty busy for the next few days. 

Weather systems are moving slowly, so high pressure will be stuck nearly overhead all weekend. Hence the sunshine. 

The details: 

TODAY

The strong July sun will drive temperatures up to the low 80s. If you are counting today as part of your weekend, today will be the coolest day of the stretch. 

Much like yesterday, there's traces of wildfire smoke in the atmosphere over Vermont, but it's not nearly thick enough to be an issue. And what little there is is mostly aloft, so the Green Mountains still look mostly green. 

Since the humidity will be low, the atmosphere will release the day's heat, so we'll have another comfortable night. Most of us will start tomorrow in the 50s, with some 40s in the cold spots, and near 60 if you're close to Lake Champlain. 

SATURDAY

Same as today, except somewhat warmer. Highs should get into the 80s statewide. Dew points, a rough measure of how humid it feels outside, will be in the 50s. That's a little higher than today, but still well within the comfortable range,

SUNDAY

Another wonderful summer day. The hottest towns could touch 90 degrees, though most places will stay in the mid and upper 80s. There might be a couple clouds in the afternoon, but the sun will be out most of the time. You might see a couple thundershowers pop up over the Adirondacks, but it looks doubtful any of those will make it over the lake into Vermont. 

NEXT WEEK

Remember how I mentioned above how weather systems are moving slowly?  We'll pay for that during the first half of next week. The particulars are still vague, but a weather front should move in, and slowly pass through.  That leaves us with some pretty high chances of showers or maybe thunderstorms, especially on Tuesday. 

This isn't exactly bad news, because we need the rain. Especially after the dry weather that started yesterday. Some parts of the state haven't had any decent rains since July 9. Here in St. Albans, I've had only about a quarter inch of rain since July 9.

Severe Weather Blasts Northeast, But Not Vermont, But The Wind Was Impressive

Scary weather hit the eastern United States
yesterday, but not Vermont. This shows a
flash flood in West Virginia. Note 
the water level outside the sliding 
glass doors. Photo via Facebook 
posted by Ryan Hall Y'all

As expected, Vermont escaped the severe weather that slammed large swaths of the Northeast, but we did have a little bit of wind trouble.

Even though there were no big storms  in Vermont - in fact a number of places had no rain or just a trace - non-thunderstorm south winds cut power in a few spots.  At one point, 3,750 homes and businesses were without power. 

The winds were strongest in the Champlain Valley. Burlington had a gust to 46 mph, for instance. I spent part of the late afternoon removing small branches and twigs from my St. Albans yard. 

It's very unusual for a storm to generate such big gusts this time of year. We've had a series of such storms this summer, which is weird. 

Given such a volatile storm severe weather was inevitable somewhere. So far, nine tornadoes have been confirmed in New Jersey, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia and Pennsylvania. 

Flash flooding swept many areas. The New York City area endured badly flooded streets for the second time in four days. In parts of West Virginia, five inches of rain fell within hours, causing catastrophic flash flooding. 

More than 2,000 flights were canceled because of the storms.

After all that chaos, things are calming down. Which in a way, is too bad. Parts of Vermont really need the rain now. 

TODAY

A cold front is coming through Vermont this morning, too soon to let thunderstorms really fire up. That'll happen further east. Central and northern Maine is under the gun for some severe storms today. 

We will have some hit and miss showers, maybe even a rumble of thunder in a few spots. You could see a band of light rain over northern New York shortly after 9 a.m. That was the cold front.  Even so, many of us will avoid any rain.  

We all love nice days, but, as I've done before, I need to quote Lynn Anderson. "Along with the sunshine, there's gotta be a little rain sometimes."

We're not quite yet on the cusp of another drought, but we do need some rain. At least in parts of Vermont. Scattered showers will bid a hasty retreat out of Vermont by early to mid afternoon. 

The front will make the humidity crash during the day today. You'll notice the change in the air by this afternoon amid fresh westerly breezes. Temperatures will hold in the 70s, with a few low 80s southeast. 

TOMORROW

A gorgeous day. We'l start with another cool morning, most of us will see lows in the 50s, with 40s in the cold spots. Highs will reach the 70s to low 80s with low humidity. The sun will be mixes with a  few pretty clouds. Another Chamber of Commerce day. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

We're in for more weather fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. We'll enjoy a couple of coolish, comfortable mornings followed by sunny, warm afternoons. Pleasant enough for a vigorous hike, warm enough for a dip in the lake or a swimming hole. Maple cremees will be eaten fast so they don't melt all over the place. 

Highs will be in the low 80s Friday and mid 80s Saturday, with a few upper 80s in the warmer valleys. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

Some sort of disturbance will work in to raise the risk of some showers, but it will absolutely not be a washout. Unsettled weather will continue early next week, but we don't have specifics on I  unsettled. At least not yet. 

Another Nice Day Yields To An Iffy Today In Vermont Then Sweet Summer Weather To Return

A widespread severe weather outbreak is likely today in 
the Mid-Atlantic states. Vermont should be on the
edge of it, with just a marginal risk of strong storms. 

 Monday was another gorgeous day across Vermont. After a cool start, the day warmed into the low 80s. as expected. There was only a slight haze of wildfire smoke so air quality was OK. 

Today, we are going to largely escape a nasty severe weather outbreak in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States. 

Much like last Saturday, the severe weather is likely in western New York all the way down to Tennessee and North Carolina. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, southeast Ohio and northeast Kentucky have a high chance of severe storms and even scattered tornadoes. 

Up here in Vermont, much like this past Saturday, we'll be on the edge of it. The atmosphere is conspiring against much weather violence in the Green Mountain State. That said, there's a marginal, level one out of five alert level of severe storms in most of Vermont later today. 

Back on Saturday, we were in the same situation, with lots of severe storms to our south and west, and we were on the edge of it. The National Weather Service was predicting some risk of severe storms in Vermont, which never materialized as conditions remained cool, cloudy and smoky. 

Unlike last Saturday, there are a few breaks in the clouds today, and the smoke is much thinner than it was on Saturday, as noted. 

Last Saturday, temperatures hovered in the 60s most of the afternoon, which is usually too chilly to support severe weather.   

Today is warmer, as highs should reach well into the 70s to low 80s. Also, like on 'Saturday, it will get more and more humid as we go through the day.  So I think we have a decent shot at thunderstorms. But not a widespread severe event. 

Judging from satellite photos this morning, the old remnants of previous thunderstorms, now decayed, should arrive to cloud up Vermont's skies, limiting the instability in the air just when you need sunshine the most to power up thunderstorms 

There could be showers anytime today, but it looks like they will be pretty scattered until mid or late afternoon and into the evening, when the showers and storms should come through in earnest. Although there a decent area of rain did blossom in southern Vermont during the mid-morning. 

That's when we could see the risk of a few widely scattered strong to borderline severe storms, though I'd emphasize the majority of us won't see anything that dramatic. Some places might hardly see any kind of showers or storms, 

For those of you wanting a nice, soaking rain, this won't be the wettest summer storm system ever. On average, southern Vermont might see a half inch of rain, northwest Vermont a third of an inch, with the Northeast Kingdom seeing less than a quarter inch. 

That's just broad brush. As is always the case with showers and storms, some towns will be big winners with over an inch of rain, while some other communities get sprinkles or light showers, It's impossible to tell in advance exactly who gets what in these situations. 

TOMORROW

We're not quite out of the shower and storm risk. The last of a series of weak weather fronts should cone through midday as a cold front. This should power up some scattered showers and storms.  The usual hit and miss routine. It looks like the timing of the front will be such that the storms will just be beginning to fire up in Vermont when peak afternoon instability begins to hit. 

For now, it looks like none of the storms will become severe until they reach New Hampshire and Maine, and southern New England. Even there, we see only a marginal, level one out of five risk for nasty storms there.

We should still see highs within a few degrees either side of 80 before the chillier air comes in. 

THURSDAY

Back to a hint of autumn, kinda, sort of. In any event, it should be a beautiful day. Sunny to partly cloudy and breezy, with rock bottom humidity with highs in the 70s. 

FRIDAY-SUNDAY

Another nice weekend! We've had a few of those this summer, which is definitely fortunate. Friday and Saturday will feature cool, calm mornings. Sunday morning will be a little warmer, but still comfortable. 

If the forecast holds, highs will be in the 80s, but trending a few degrees warmer each day, starting with low 80s Friday to upper 80s Sunday. 

Windy Vermont Sunday Yields To Cool Start To Week; Severe Weather To Largely Miss The State This Week

One if the deck umbrellas is open on my deck this morning.
The wind will be light today, making it safe. More gusts
 of over 30 mph. I'll make sure I'll unfurl it by then. 

A large shade umbrella ended up on my roof yesterday. 

It was unusually breezy in Vermont yesterday as an oddly strong storm for July departed. Under the sunshine,  winds gusted as high as 34 mph. 

At my house in St. Albans, Vermont. that deck umbrella spent an hour on the roof. It eventually fell into an adjacent spruce tree, and we were able to get it down with no real harm. 

So much for our drama. 

The cool Sunday weather ended in an almost chilly dawn today. Most places in Vermont got into the low 50s, with quite a few upper 40s. Burlington got to 56 degrees, the coolest since June 17. 

Today will be a beauty, though a little wildfire smoke is back. It won't get as thick as it was on Saturday afternoon, or last Tuesday.  It's just some haze today.  Highs should get to near 80, maybe low 80s in the warmer valleys. 

NEXT STORM

The next system coming in for Tuesday and Wednesday looks similar to what we had Saturday, minus  some of the wildfire smoke. 

Once again, the severe weather will hit mostly well to our south and west. And there could be a lot of it. The western Great Lakes should have the rough weather today. Tomorrow, it'll be the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States getting nailed with severe storms and possible tornadoes.

Instead, lots of clouds and relatively cool air should keep Vermont out of the severe storms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center does have most of us in a low level marginal risk for severe storms. A rogue strong storm could enter the mix tomorrow. 

It looks like we'll have several rounds at showers and possible thunderstorms. It won't rain all day, and most of it should hit later in the day and the evening. Rainfall won't be extreme either. Just a typical July rainy interval. 

Tuesday should be breezy, much like it was Saturday. Gusts in the Champlain Valley could reach 30 mph. I'll keep my deck umbrellas closed. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Not much to say here. Near normal weather should take us through the rest of the month. I'm sure there will be surprises in there one way or another. 

Vermont Cool Spell Ends Long 80 Degree Spell; No Real Heat For Awhile

Midsummer flowers in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
It's the peak of summer, but we're having an inverted
"January thaw."  That's a July cool spell that tells
us summer will eventually end. 

 We're in the midst of the summer version of the Vermont "January thaw."

Many years, often around the third week of January, we have a warm spell that tells us winter will eventually end. Not yet, it'll be awhile, but spring will come. 

Right now, we're in the July version of that  It happens during warmer summers, like this one has been so far. We get a cool spell in mid to late July.  It's an autumn-like sign that summer will eventually end. Not right away. There's plenty of summer left to go. But for now, there's hints of September. 

Saturday, the high temperature in Burlington reached only 72 degrees. That ended a streak of 21 consecutive days in which the temperature reached at least 80 degrees. The streak is the fourth longest 80 degree string on record in Burlington. 

We were supposed to get to 80 degrees or more yesterday, but a burst of warm, humid air had trouble making it as far as northern New England. That fact, and another burst of wildfire smoke, helped keep us cool.

The situation did rescue us from any severe weather. It all stayed well to our west and south. There's dozens of thunderstorm damage reports from western New York to North Carolina. 

Rainfall was mostly modest in Vermont, which is a bummer, since many of us could use the rain. 

REST OF TODAY

The cool weather continues today, though it is much nicer than it was Saturday.  The smoke is gone for now, and a pleasant northwest breeze is blowing. Today's the weekend day to enjoy. Our hints of autumn continuing. Highs will only top out in the 70s - gorgeous, but cool for the peak of summer. 

Tonight will probably be the coolest we've seen since the second week of June. That's not saying much. Most of us we'll get into the low and mid 50s, with some 40s in the colder hollows. Nothing unusual for July. 

THIS WEEK

Tomorrow will be another nice day, though some clouds will come in this afternoon. Highs will be seasonable, topping out within a few degrees either side of 80 degrees. 

The next storm system, coming through Tuesday through Wednesday, but it looks pretty tame. More tame that I thought a few days ago. Unless there's a major change in the outlook, it appears severe weather will stay well to Vermont's south and west.

Some earlier forecasts suggested the storm could slow down or stall near us, which would put us at risk for heavy rain or even flooding. Now, that idea looks highly doubtful. The warm fronts and cold fronts and troughs and lines of showers should wander through, not in a hurry, but not dawdling either. 

That means we might, if we're lucky, receive a decent amount of rain. 

It'll temporarily turn more humid during the rainy spell, but not wildly so. And it will turn drier again later in the week. Wildfire smoke is still lurking around central North America, but it's thinning somewhat. Rain has temporarily cooled the big Ontario wildfires a bit. Still, it might get a little smoky again midweek. 

After that, we don't see any signs of new heat waves for at least 10 days. It'll be warm enough, but not intensely so. Most of the heat will stay in the western and central United States.

But then there's August. Who knows whether we'll have more heat waves them. Stay tuned! 

Vermont Smoky, Windy, Stormy Saturday; Severe Storm Risk, Especially West. Will Sunday Rescue The Weekend?

A widespread severe weather outbreak is due in the
Northeast today. Vermont is on the edge of it. 
Clouds, wildfire smoke and the strength of the 
parent storm system is making today's 
storm forecast difficult and iffy. 

 We all know the humidity was low and gorgeous and pleasant around Vermont yesterday. If you stepped outside for even a second you might have even frizzed your hair a bit. 

It was the kind of summer day we all look forward to. And the tourists from the humid south get excited about. 

We actually tied a pretty substantial record Friday,  The relative humidity plunged to 20 percent in Burlington, tying the record for the lowest relative humidity in July. It's now a three-way tie with July 16, 2018 and July 1, 1975. 

Interestingly, July 1975 and 2018 were both among the top ten warmest on record. This month is running well above normal so far, but the second half looks like it could be in the cool side. 

Another way to look at how dry Friday was is the dew point.  That's the temperature that you would have had to reach to saturate the air. The dew point, as you keep seeing in this blog thingy, is a good measure of how comfortable it feels out there. 

If the dew point is in the 50s, it's nice and pleasant and not at all sweaty. The dew point got its the 30s in many areas Friday. We usually don't see something like that until we're into September.

SMOKY SATURDAY. STORMS, TOO?

The dry, clean air is in the past for now. This morning, the dew point is rising the smoke is back and getting thicker and the rest of the day isn't going to be so wonderful.

South winds are bringing back the smoke that had gotten flushed out of Vermont by Thursday's cold front. That has triggered a state wide air quality alert until 11 p.m. tonight. Especially for those who have lung problems, or are very young, or the elderly 

That's the part of the forecast that is easy, even if it is depressing. 

The next question is the risk of severe storms. Very much like on Tuesday night, the smoke is making the storm forecast challenging. That smoke could be one factor that could limit storms. Maybe.

his is a completely different weather set-up than we had on Tuesday night, so we can't use Tuesday night as an example. 

Fortunately, the core of today's rough weather will be slightly off to our west. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and western and central New York have a three out of five risk of severe storms, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. This is an unusually large area to be under this level of a storm alert. 

That area could have numerous strong to severe storms, and probably a few tornadoes. 

That leaves Vermont on the eastern edge of the the severe risk. Roughly south and west of Interstate 89, there's a slight risk of severe storm, a level two out of five risk of storms. That means at least scattered severe weather.  The rest of the state is under marginal risk, one out of five, which means mostly just isolated severe storms.

The parent storm system is unusually strong for July. That adds a lot of energy to the atmosphere, something that could trigger a lot of storms.

But Vermont is not fully getting into the super humid air that fuels storms. It'll turn humid for sure, but it won't get as humid as it possibly could be.  Also, it seems there will be a lot of clouds around today. And smoke. Don't forget that smoke!

The clouds and smoke could hold temperatures down further than they otherwise would be. Hotter air would help fuel storms. Cooler air would tame them down. 

So, we're left with a lot of questions. Will the clouds and smoke thin just in time to juice the atmosphere into severe storms?  Or will the clouds and smoke keep us cool, limiting the storm? 

As noted above, the parent storm is vigorous, so it should overcome the smoke and clouds and produce rounds of showers and storms. The wind is changing direction and strength with height. So, once again, there is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief tornado. This will be south and west of Interstate 89, with the best chance down near Bennington. 

However, the biggest risk from today's storms is damaging straight line winds. 

After our two tornadoes, and a slew of destructive microburst this summer, this isn't exactly what we need. 

Whether or not we see severe thunderstorms, it's not going to be a nice day. 

It won't rain all the time, but a risk of showers and storms will always be there, through this evening. Between showers and storms winds will be fairly gusty, especially in the Champlain Valley. Boating on Lake Champlain will be tricky, even dangerous for small boats. Plus the smoke. And it will feel increasingly humid. 

Bottom line: Keep an eye on the sky, and - once again - have a way to receive warnings of severe weather warnings. 

So, can the weekend be saved?

SUNDAY

The above question gets a yes answer on Sunday. 

We'll have a day exactly the opposite of what today will bring. We could see some clouds early in the day, but it should turn mostly sunny. The storm's cold front will have flushed most if not all of  the wildfire smoke away.

It will be also be cool for the season. Our first subtle hint of autumn! (Don't worry, summer is far from over).  Highs should stay in the 70s, maybe upper 60s in the cooler hills in the north. The humidity will be at rock bottom, not much different than it was yesterday. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It's an active weather pattern, so a new weather system is due Tuesday night and Wednesday. It's too soon to know the details of what will happen with that next storm, but severe storms and torrential rains are possible. 

After Yesterday's Weird Storm, A Brief Delightful Vermont Day Today. Smoke, Rain To Return

Yesterday's cold front packed some surprisingly 
strong winds. This tree in Georgia, Vermont
fell victims to those winds. Fallen trees and 
damaged power lines were reported across
much of the state. 

That was one weird storm in Vermont yesterday. 

On radar, it didn't look like much: Just a band of light to moderate showers. It was weird to see a severe thunderstorm warning ahead of what appeared to be a patch of light rain in the Champlain Valley. 

But the cold front had in incredible gust front.  Trees fell down in a wide area of northern and central Vermont. 

One tree blocked all lanes of Route 7 in Colchester near Poor Farm Road. Other trees fell in Georgia, Milton, Hyde Park and other towns. Winds gusted to 47 mph in Burlington. 

It was another surprisingly strong storm in a stormy summer. We might have more on the way Saturday. I'll get into that in a bit, but first, a calm interlude

TODAY

Today will be gorgeous. And placid.  The good new for us is that gusty cold front removed most of the smoke from Vermont. For now, anyway.   That left was a calm, comfortable sleeping night, and a pleasant, sunny day, with low humidity. 

It should get to 80 degrees in the warmer spots this afternoon.  That would make this the 21st day in a row in which it got to at least 80 degrees in Burlington. Today would make it the fourth longest stretch of consecutive 80 degree days on record,

The record for most consecutive 80 degree days is 29 days in 2018. I doubt we will break that record as we have some sub-80 degree days coming up. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

Meanwhile, the weather goes downhill from here.

TOMORROW

That smoke that got suppressed to our south by yesterday's cold front looks like it wants to come back   at us tomorrow as south winds take over. I'm not sure whether it will be enough to trigger new air quality alerts, but I imagine it will be at least noticeable. 

On top of that - here we go again - an unusually strong storm is going to go by to our north tomorrow and tomorrow night.  It'll be one of several oddly intense storms this summer. Not sure, but I think the onset of the strong El Nino now underway is helping to produce these vigorous systems. 

A strong storm like the one forecast for tomorrow might remind you of that day in June, when a similarly powerful storm helped set off two tornadoes in Vermont.

I wouldn't count on tornadoes this time, as if anybody wants something like that to happen again. 

There are some differences between the June storm and what we're going to see Saturday and Saturday night. The storm in June had a cold front with a sharp change in wind direction. It also had sharp changes in wind direction and wind speed  aloft. That's a recipe for tornadoes 

This storm doesn't look like it will  have such a big change in wind direction. Which reduces the chances of tornadoes. 

It also looks like we'll be dealing with wildfire smoke. As we saw earlier this week, smoke can reduce the intensity or number of thunderstorms. We think, anyway. 

That's not to say we won't have any strong storms. For now, anyway, most of Vermont is in a marginal risk (level one out of five alert) for severe thunderstorms. Southwest Vermont is at level two out of five.  Forecasting storminess like this even one day in advance can be tricky. The risk level for Vermont storms could rise or fall by the time we get tomorrow, so stay tuned.  

It does seen like there could be a relatively decent amount of rain with this. Current forecasts have us receiving a half to three quarters of an inch of rain, give or take. With thunderstorms around, actual amounts will be pretty variable. A couple places might get well over an inch of rain. A couple places might largely miss on the rain. 

Some parts of Vermont could use the rain. Here in St. Albans, those big thunderstorms this month have pretty much missed our area. We picked up a whopping 0.07 inches of rain yesterday, so that didn't really help. 

Overall, with the smoke, the showers, the risk of storms, the rising humidity and gusty non-thunderstorms winds, this won't be the glorious weather Saturday a lot of people would hope for.  On the bright side, it won't rain all day, and it feels like most of the rain will come later in the day.

SUNDAY

If you want a decent weather day this weekend, you'll want to wait until Sunday. That storm will blow by, sweep its cold front through, and leave us with dry, cool weather. Hopefully, it will also blow the smoke away. Temperatures will probably fall short of 80 degrees in Burlington, breaking the streak of 80 degree weather. 

LOOKING AHEAD

It looks like we have a fairly active weather pattern ahead. I don't see any signs of temperature extremes, neither too hot nor particularly chilly for this time of year.  Another fairly vigorous storm for this time of year looks like it might swing through Tuesday or Wednesday with the potential for locally heavy rain and thunderstorms, 

It's way too soon to get into specifics, so we'll put that on the back burner for now. 

 

Evening Vermont Storm Update: Despite Smoke, Dangerous Storms, Tornadoes Risk Continues Now Through Pre-dawn Hours

Satellite photo this evening. Still a lot of wildfire 
smoke over and near Vermont. That might or might
not interfere with storm develop. Some are 
developing. White splotches over extreme 
northeast Vermont, northern New Hampshire
and part of Maine were strong storms as of 6 p.mm
Other storms firing east of Montreal, A nasty clump
of storms well north of Ottawa in the upper left
of the photo are heading in our general direction
and could be severe for us if they hold together 

 Wildfire smoke is still making our storm forecast more difficult than it otherwise would be, but signs continue to point toward severe weather. 

For much of the day, it looked like western Maine would suffer the worst of this outbreak.  But it hasn't warmed up as much ax forecast in the main Maine risk zone, so to speak. At 4 p.m., Rangeley, Maine was only 73 degrees. 

Temperatures in the 80s would have helped make storms more powerful. Maine might still get nailed, but the lower temperatures raise questions about the severe threat there. 

Here in Vermont, it's also a bit cooler than forecast, but still much warmer than northwestern Maine. As of 5 p.m., it was well into the 80s, with a couple spots close to 90 degrees. The dew point had risen to near 70 across the state. 

Those are super juicy conditions for storms. 

The winds are also veering with height, and are pretty strong higher up.  Here down on the ground, winds are from the southwest. Higher up, the winds are westerly. Go up even further to jet stream level, the winds are northwesterly. 

That's a great set up for severe weather. 

With all these ingredients for storms, we  just need the trigger. 

The National Weather Service in South Burlington said that so far, the smoke has tamped down attempts at thunderstorms. But the approaching cold front, and a so-called pre-frontal trough ahead of it, would overcome the smoke and fire up some storms. 

At least that's what the thinking was as of late this afternoon.

At this point, as of nearly 6 p.m., it's still unclear whether this will develop into the nasty severe outbreak that has been forecasted since yesterday, or a total forecast bust/false alarm, or somewhere in between.

There were storms starting to fire in southern and central Quebec. There was a nasty batch of storms well north of Ottawa. We'll see if they hold together, as they were heading in our general direction. 

I'd keep planning on a severe outbreak if I were you. The ingredients are still all there. We're just waiting for the proper triggers. Even if those triggers never fire, what have you lost by bracing yourself for the possibility of nasty storms. 

As of 6 p.m., meteorologists much smarter than me were still insisting the triggers will fire tonight. In a Facebook post, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said confidence in severe weather tonight "continues to increase"

 The NWS also said the wildfire smoke would have little, if any effect on the storms. It's just a matter of how well the atmosphere triggers work tonight. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is more nuanced for this evenings outlook. Wildfire smoke and a general cloudiness might be inhibiting storms. As of 7 p.m., they were still on the fence on whether to issue a severe storm watch. 

Still, if storms can overcome these factors, severe storms will erupt.

We've still got the risk of destructive straight line winds, maybe a a couple of tornadoes. Somewhere in northern New England, a tornado might turn out to be strong. There's also the risk of large hail, local flash floods and continuous lightning. 

Not everybody will see those dire weather conditions. But a few places might. From now until about 3 a.m., you'll need a way to receive storm or tornado warnings, just in case. Don't put your phone on do not disturb. 

It's also important to note it's impossible to tell who will receive a severe storm and who will avoid them in advance. We won't know until just before the storms hit. 

READING THE TEA LEAVES

Like every meteorologist and weather geek around, I've been constantly looking at satellite images and weather radar, and other data to see what's going on. 

Things change fast with these severe weather episodes, but here's a snapshot at what we see shortly before 6 p.m. 

A patch of clouds over northern Vermont late this afternoon was preventing storms from firing up.  It was expected that we wouldn't see much of anything during the afternoon, so this part was expected. 

It had gotten interesting just north of the border, though. Just north of the border was a narrow line of roiling clouds, some of which were developing into thunderstorms. A 

 At 5:19 p.m. today, one storm on that line prompted the first severe thunderstorm warning of the day, covering the extreme northeast tip of Vermont. Other thunderstorms were trying to develop further west along that line of clouds, but they were struggling. 

There's sort of a temperature boundary between the relatively cool air in northwest Maine and the warmer, more humid air in Vermont. So I'm suspecting the Northeast Kingdom will see thunderstorms start fairly early this evening, as thunderstorms like to form along boundaries. 

Speaking of boundaries, there's a pre-frontal trough south of the main cold front. Pre-frontal troughs are common in severe weather outbreak. They are a line of disturbed weather usually a few dozen miles ahead of the actual cold front. 

The pre-frontal trough was encouraging thunderstorms far to the northwest of Montreal. They're embedded in wildfire smoke, so we're unsure if the smoke will interfere with further development or not. 

In any event, the main show happens after 8 a.m. and continues to around 2 or 3 in the morning. If the forecast is correct, waves of storms will move down from Quebec into northeast New York, northern Vermont, northen New Hampshire and northwest Maine. 

Again, if the storms develop, they'll be a mix of supercells and short lines of intense storms Those supercells are the prime suspects for forming a couple tornadoes tonight. Very few people will actually be affected by any tornadoes. But still, oe or two of them could still be strong.

The bigger danger is still straight line winds. The worst storms could have wind gusts of over 75 mph. If one of those comes through where you live, you'll see a lot of damage. 

This isn't to say everybody gets severe weather. Some of the storms will indeed be severe, even intense. Other areas in the higher risks zones will wake up tomorrow morning wondering what all the fuss was about. 

The storms should still weaken as they head toward southern Vermont after midnight. 

WHAT TO DO

The first and most important thing to do is have at least one way to receive severe storm warnings all night. Fully charge your phone, leave it on your nightstand and have it set to blare if a severe storm or tornado warning goes up for your area.

You'll need to act fast if you get a warning, especially if it's  a tornado warning. Have sturdy shoes next to your bed that you can slip on quickly. Also a flash light or better yet  a head lamp so your hands will be free. 

Make sure you're able to scoop up any pets on the way to the basement. 

Some of the severe thunderstorms, if they develop, might have winds equivalent to a tornado so head to the basement even if it's a severe storm warning instead of a tornado warning. If you don't have a basement go into a small interior windowless space like a bathroom or closet. Put as many walls between you and the outside that you can. 

If you're still camping, get out of the woods now if not sooner. Any forested area will be really dangerous if an intense storm or tornado comes along. 

Before the storms arrive, secure outdoor furniture and plants early this evening before the storms arrive. I'll be doing that as soon as I finish this post. 

Above all, don't work yourself up over this. It is a bigger severe threat than we're used to in northern New England. But for most of us, the worst we'll endure ia a noisy night with lightning, loud thunder, gusty winds and torrential rains in may spots. 

An unlucky minority of us in the North Country unfortunately face real danger and likely property damage if the storms develop as meteorologists were anticipating as of 6 p.m. 

Just take your precautions this evening and stay weather aware overnight 

Monday Evening Storm Update: Late Tuesday Vermont Storm Forecast

NOAA's Storm Prediction  Center has the highest
risk of tornadoes in northern New England. The 
little hash marks mean there's a chance there
could be a strong tornado thrown in. 

I know everyone is watching the storm threat for Tuesday evening and night, and unfortunately the forecast still looks kind of scary. 

The overall threat level and location of the threat is still about the same as we talked about this morning. 

This is easily one of the most intense severe weather forecast I can remember around here. Forecasts don't necessarily come true, but the signs still point toward some truly dangerous weather. 

An enhanced risk of severe storms (level three out of five) is still up for northern New York, northern Vermont and New Hampshire and northwestern Maine. 

Before we get there, we have a few showers are coming through this evening, maybe even a rumble of thunder. No biggie. 

We're still on for a really hot day tomorrow.  Maybe a few showers and clouds could come through in the morning. Maybe. Maybe not. But that shouldn't interfere with any big storms late in the day.

We'll just sweat it out in near record heat through the day. Just temperatures in the 90s with a heat advisory in effect.  Wildfire smoke might help hold temperatures down just a bit with low 90s instead of mid-90s. 

Then we get to the evening. By then, a good chunk of southern Quebec will have been raked with damaging winds, big hail and probably at least one or two tornadoes if not more. 

We're still looking at most of the storms coming in around sunset and into the night. Here are the risks:

WIND

This is the big issue. Some of the storms might be individual supercells, not connected to the any lines of storms, Those supercells can create intense straight line winds. Not to mention tornadoes and/or large hail, which we'll get to in a bit. 

There will also be short lines or clumps of storms, all capable of winds of 60 mph, or 70 mph or even more in a couple spots. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern Vermont, along with northern New Hampshire and interior Maine in a 30 percent chance zone of damaging winds. That means, if you're standing anywhere in this risk region there's at least a 30 percent chance of wind damage within 25 miles of where you ar. 

That seems a bit low, but it's much higher than we usually see when severe thunderstorms are forecast around here. Expect power outages and tree damage, even structural damage to buildings if this forecast comes true. 

TORNADOES

Tornadoes, too, is about as high a risk we can get in northern New England.. True, the risk of tornadoes is definitely lower than the destructive winds. But still, the risk is higher than I've seen in a long time. The Storm Prediction Center even has the possibility of stronger tornadoes, EF-2 or higher. That's exceptionally rare for northern New England.

Individual supercells can spin up tornadoes, of course. But there could be areas of rotation embedded in some lines of storms. 

HAIL

The Storm Prediction Center has also upped the chances of large hail. Supercells could produce hail as big as two inches in diameter. That's as big as hen eggs, which can definitely dent cars, break windows and damage to siding. 

TIMING/LOCATION

Highest chances of storms are between 8 p.m. and a little after midnight. Storms will tend to fade as they approach southern Vermont late at night as they lose their atmospheric support.

CAVEATS

The area under highest risk is pretty broad brush. There's going to be short lines of storms or supercells. It's possible the bulk of the worst storms could head toward Maine. Or New York. Or Vermont. It's impossible to tell just yet.

These storms are going to be somebody's problem for sure. We just don't know whose problem just yet. At this point, just be aware the weather might really get rough and dangerous tomorrow evening and night. If all this misses Vermont, great! If not, we'll have to deal with it.

Between now and tomorrow afternoon, if you know if somebody is camping in the woods, definitely try to get them out of the forests by late tomorrow afternoon. Falling trees in high winds are no joke.