Yes, It Was Autumnal In Vermont But July Cool Spells Aren't That Cool Anymore. Now Back To Regularly Scheduled Summer

Autumn-like clouds overhead and strong winds tilt a tree
in St. Albans yesterday on an autumn-like day. However,
summer cool spells are not as cold as they once were,
thanks largely to climate change. 

Yesterday and last night in Vermont sort of had the feel of early autumn. 

Broken clouds streaked across the sky, but in the afternoon and evening, they were those flat windswept type, not the puffy, rising, almost vertical clouds that are more common in summer. 

The winds for the past few days were gusty and cool, and much stronger than you'd expect in the summer. They gusts were more like what you might see toward November. 

By dawn today, readings were down to the upper 40s and low 50s. The summit of Mount Mansfield was at 39 degrees.

It looks like Burlington made it down to 53 degrees this morning, which will likely be the coolest night this month. 

But in yet another sign of climate change, probably mixed with urban development creating a heat island effect, that 53 low this morning is higher than what the July low routinely reached in the past.

.July temperatures in Burlington reached the 40s most years. But Burlington hasn't had a July low under 50 degrees since 2015. In the 80 years ending in 1990, only 17 years had July lows of 50 or above. In the 36 years since 1990,  all but 10 Julys had a months low of 50 degrees or more.  

To give you an idea how cool some Julys used to be, we can harken back to 1962, which, to be fair, was the chilliest July on record,. That July, eleven mornings started under 50 degrees. One of those mornings bottomed out at 39 degrees, which is still Burlington's coldest July temperature on record. It was 29 degrees in West Burke, Vermont that morning. 

Nothing like that is coming anytime soon, of course. No covering up those tomato plants for quite awhile yet. And, a warming trend is starting. Here's what's coming up over the next few days. 

TODAY

A nice one, with sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze. A strong but dying storm far up in Quebec was throwing clouds into far northern Vermont this morning, but those should mostly clear out. The sky, especially over the mountains, will probably have some puffy clouds building up this afternoon, but they won't be big enough to produce any raindrops.

SATURDAY

Another winner! The day will start off cool with temperatures in the 50s to near 60 at dawn, but rocket into the 80s by afternoon. It'll be another weekend day fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

SUNDAY:

Actually kind of a hot one by afternoon. Highs should get well into the 80s with the warmer valleys getting up to around 88 or 89 degrees. It'll be your beach day, probably. Some clouds might arrive during the afternoon, but those clouds won't turn the sky overcast. The sun will likely more out than in. Any showers should hold off until Sunday night at the earliest. 

Humidity levels should stay pretty reasonable, too. 

NEXT WEEK

The first half of the week looks unsettled with risks of showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. It's still too soon to say how many showers and storms, so stay tuned!

Vermont Cool Spell Ends Long 80 Degree Spell; No Real Heat For Awhile

Midsummer flowers in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
It's the peak of summer, but we're having an inverted
"January thaw."  That's a July cool spell that tells
us summer will eventually end. 

 We're in the midst of the summer version of the Vermont "January thaw."

Many years, often around the third week of January, we have a warm spell that tells us winter will eventually end. Not yet, it'll be awhile, but spring will come. 

Right now, we're in the July version of that  It happens during warmer summers, like this one has been so far. We get a cool spell in mid to late July.  It's an autumn-like sign that summer will eventually end. Not right away. There's plenty of summer left to go. But for now, there's hints of September. 

Saturday, the high temperature in Burlington reached only 72 degrees. That ended a streak of 21 consecutive days in which the temperature reached at least 80 degrees. The streak is the fourth longest 80 degree string on record in Burlington. 

We were supposed to get to 80 degrees or more yesterday, but a burst of warm, humid air had trouble making it as far as northern New England. That fact, and another burst of wildfire smoke, helped keep us cool.

The situation did rescue us from any severe weather. It all stayed well to our west and south. There's dozens of thunderstorm damage reports from western New York to North Carolina. 

Rainfall was mostly modest in Vermont, which is a bummer, since many of us could use the rain. 

REST OF TODAY

The cool weather continues today, though it is much nicer than it was Saturday.  The smoke is gone for now, and a pleasant northwest breeze is blowing. Today's the weekend day to enjoy. Our hints of autumn continuing. Highs will only top out in the 70s - gorgeous, but cool for the peak of summer. 

Tonight will probably be the coolest we've seen since the second week of June. That's not saying much. Most of us we'll get into the low and mid 50s, with some 40s in the colder hollows. Nothing unusual for July. 

THIS WEEK

Tomorrow will be another nice day, though some clouds will come in this afternoon. Highs will be seasonable, topping out within a few degrees either side of 80 degrees. 

The next storm system, coming through Tuesday through Wednesday, but it looks pretty tame. More tame that I thought a few days ago. Unless there's a major change in the outlook, it appears severe weather will stay well to Vermont's south and west.

Some earlier forecasts suggested the storm could slow down or stall near us, which would put us at risk for heavy rain or even flooding. Now, that idea looks highly doubtful. The warm fronts and cold fronts and troughs and lines of showers should wander through, not in a hurry, but not dawdling either. 

That means we might, if we're lucky, receive a decent amount of rain. 

It'll temporarily turn more humid during the rainy spell, but not wildly so. And it will turn drier again later in the week. Wildfire smoke is still lurking around central North America, but it's thinning somewhat. Rain has temporarily cooled the big Ontario wildfires a bit. Still, it might get a little smoky again midweek. 

After that, we don't see any signs of new heat waves for at least 10 days. It'll be warm enough, but not intensely so. Most of the heat will stay in the western and central United States.

But then there's August. Who knows whether we'll have more heat waves them. Stay tuned! 

Likely Woodstock, Vermont Tornado To Be Investigated Today, More Inclement, But Not Violent Weather Due

Trees ripped apart on a Woodstock, Vermont hillside
after a likely tornado hit on Thursday. 
Photo from WCAX via Facebook

 Thanks to the fact that everyone has a camera and local TV stations are pretty aggressive when it comes to covering rare, violent weather in Vermont, we're now pretty confident that whatever hit Woodstock, Vermont yesterday was probably a tornado. 

Drone video from Henry's Weather Service shows trees snapped off halfway up, and many other trees felled in varying directions, which are telltale signs of a tornado. 

Video obtained from Tiffany LaRocque taken from inside Mountain Creamery in Woodstock shows intense winds and rain on the edge of the tornado. Trees were falling and the parking lot was full of vehicles as people traveling along Route 4 took refuge there as driving conditions became impossible. 

About 100 people were affected by the probably tornado on the western side of town, WPTZ reports. Thankfully, we have no reports of injuries, which is pleasantly surprising, given how much traffic there usually is on Route 4 where the probably tornado crossed. 

The tornado missed the historic central village of Woodstock, which is a world-renowned tourist hub. Initial reports indicate only minor tree damage in the village center. 

Reports are that National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington will head to Woodstock, probably today, to confirm whether this was a tornado.  If that analysis happens, we'll learn how strong the tornado was and how long and wide the path was.

Judging from the drone video, the path of the tornado looked a little longer than most Vermont tornadoes. Twisters in the Green Mountain State tend to touch down and lift almost immediately. 

I'm not sure on the strength of the tornado, but judging from photos and that drone video, I'd say it was an EF-1, which would mean winds of 86 to 110 mph. 

Once the National Weather Service offers a report on the Woodstock storm, I'll write up a new post with the updates.

Heading east from Woodstock, there was additional severe damage. In Quechee, Vermont, a row of large willow trees on a golf course fell. They all went down in the same direction, suggesting straight line wind damage. 

There was also extensive damage in Hartford, Vermont, where a lot of trees fell. 

Nearly 4,000 Vermont homes and businesses were still without power this morning, mostly in southeastern Vermont. Londonderry had 1,100 of those outages, suggesting something nasty rolled through that town yesterday. 

This morning, other trouble spots popped up in northern Vermont, near the Canadian border. The Barton River at Coventry and the Missisquoi river near North Troy were at minor flood stage. Heavy rains yesterday fell atop soils soaked by very heavy rains that hit up there on Sunday. 

We had reports of a lot of street flooding Thursday in Newport and Middlebury. Probably other towns experienced that, too. 

Rainfall was quite heavy in many spots. Burlington had 1.11 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.54 inches. A full report on how much rain fell in specific towns will become available later this morning. 

WHAT'S AHEAD?

Thankfully, we're done with the violent weather at least for awhile, but conditions will be unsettled and wet at times. Northern Vermont in particular is in for some showery weather this weekend. 

The out of season, strong low pressure system that gave Vermont the rough weather yesterday is meandering through Quebec. It's rotating little disturbances through here and will continue to do so through the weekend. 

That means frequent bursts of rain,  especially north. Total rainfall through Sunday night will be near an inch over the northern Green Mountains. In most valley towns north of Route 2,  a half to three quarters of an inch will come down between now and Monday morning.   

The rainfall will taper to a quarter inch in central Vermont and less than a tenth of an inch in far southeast Vermont. A  few garden variety thunderstorms and downpours will probably mix in, so a few towns will get more rain than the rest of Vermont as a result. 

A few daily details: 

Today

Mostly cloudy and breezy with west to southwest winds gusting to 25 or 20 mph. Most of the afternoon showers and garden variety thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be north of Route 2, but some will drift into central Vermont by very late afternoon or the first half of tonight. A few storms might have briefly heavy downpours, but not enough to cause any flooding or anything like that. 

Highs should reach the low and mid 70s in most valleys

Saturday

Probably the worst day of the bunch. Northern areas will see very little sun and frequent showers. Southern valleys will see some sun, but also a risk of a shower. It will be quite cool for the season with highs in the 60s north, with low to mid 70s southern valley floors. 

Hikers should be aware that summits will be wet and cold tomorrow with wind chills in the 40s. If you insist on hiking, it won't be a summertime activity. Dress accordingly. 

Sunday

More showers and garden variety thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 70s, give or take. 

 

A Small Storm Chance Today Followed By Weird, Stormy Vermont Day Tomorrow

Much like this past Sunday, much of the Northeast
including Vermont is in a level two out of five risk
for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (yellow
shading). Whether we get severe storms 
tomorrow depends on whether building storms
can grab high speed air screaming overhead.

 Yesterday was another gorgeous day in Vermont, although a couple late afternoon and evening showers and storms in the Adirondacks. 

Now, we're gearing up for another weird storm in Vermont. It's the "winter storm" I talked about yesterday. More on that  mess in a minute, but let's just look at today's forecast first. Just so we can relax a bit

TODAY

It'll generally be a not bad day. It started off gorgeous with blue skies and in some areas, a nice breeze.

The clouds will tend to increase today, and a couple showers or thunderstorms might pop up this afternoon. Many of us will stay dry, but others will have one or two wet periods. Not a washout at all. Highs should flirt with 80 degrees today. 

THURSDAY 

Kind of a complicated mess of a day with gusty winds, bursts of rain and the risk of severe thunderstorms. 

Our winter-like storm looks like it will set off a nasty tornado and severe thunderstorm outbreak across Illinois and Indiana today. By tomorrow morning, the storm should be somewhere in the general vicinity of Ottawa. 

As I mentioned yesterday, storm systems, if they exist at all in the summer, are almost always very weak. This will be a strong one, the kind of storm you see pretty often in the winter, when storms tend to be a lot more energetic 

In general, the lower the air pressure, the stronger the storm. This one looks like it might have a barometric pressure below 990 millibars, which is near record territory for June. Since the storm will be passing so close to Vermont, we might  have barometer readings that might be close to record lows.

But that's not what we have to worry about. 

The problem with this storm will be wind. We'll have just the regular strong winds that a strong low pressure system stirs up, and the possibility of even more damaging winds with a few strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms. 

Wind

In the summer, since storm systems are weak, we almost never had strong, gusty winds, except of course in thunderstorms. And those thunderstorm winds only cover a small fraction of the state when they do occur.

With our strong storm, it will be windy almost everywhere in Vermont tomorrow. Gusts will reach 35 to 40 mph at times across most of the state, with locally higher winds of up to 45 or 50 mph in a couple spots.  

Those kinds of gusts hit all the time in the winter when the trees are leafless. But now, the trees are heavy with leaves. Each leaf will act like a little sail tugging at trees as the winds blow through. That means a few trees and branches might give up the ghost and crash to the ground. 

Some of those trees will take down power lines. This won't be an anywhere near a blackout situation, but a few scattered power outages seem possible.  I'd stay off of Lake Champlain, too. The broad lake should have at least two to four foot waves, which isn't great for small boats. 

Thunderstorms

A warm front that's part of the storm will throw a burst of moderate to heavy rain at us for a few hours in the morning. There might be a rumble of thunder or two with this, but they won't be severe. It'll just be sort of a stormy, unpleasant morning. 

Then, in the afternoon, the warm front will be in Quebec and the storm's cold front will be to our west, heading our way.

In this zone, we are at risk of severe storms.  But it's iffy. We indeed might see those severe storms. But there's a chance it could end up being like this past Sunday, where no severe storms really developed,

Like last Sunday, Vermont is in a slight risk zone, (alert level 2 out of 5) for severe storms tomorrow, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

There will be a lot of clouds around, and it won't get super warm tomorrow (highs in the mid 70s to near 80).  Those conditions would tend to dampen the risk of storms. 

But remember, our parent storm system in southern Canada is super intense for this time of year. Winds several thousand feet overhead will be screaming along. Storms that do develop could grab some of that high speed air and blast it down on us, leading to locally damaging gusts. 

Or, the winds aloft might be so strong that they tilt wannabe thunderstorms so they have trouble getting severe. We don't know yet. 

It's a maybe, maybe not proposition, so stay tuned and be prepared in case there are severe storms tomorrow. The storms will be moving very fast because of those strong upper level winds. So there might not be much warning for you if a severe storm develops. 

Do note that just because we didn't see severe storms last Sunday, we're not immune from such storms tomorrow. This is an entirely different weather setup that we had a few days ago, so you can't rely on last Sunday's weather maps for clues.  

Flooding

I'm not really that worried about flooding. Sure, rain might come down hard at times. But everything will be moving so fast that the downpours will zip on through before they can cause much trouble.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does have us in marginal risk zone (Level 1 out of 4) for flash flooding. That's because a few areas of Vermont have gotten really sodden from recent rains, so it might not take much to set off some high water. But if something like that does occur, it will be pretty isolated and scattered.

In general, we should expect a half inch to an inch of rain out of this storm, give or take

AFTER THE STORM

In the winter, storms like this often stalls or slows down way up north in Quebec or in the Canadian Maritime provinces, creating cold northwest winds, wind chills and snow showers. Those snow showers usually focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

None of that will happen, but it will be cool. And breezy. With showers. Rain showers, not snow showers, of course! Those showers could happen anywhere, but yes, they'll focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

The cool air won't be really established yet on Friday, so it'll get into the 70s. Best chance of shower is i the afternoon and evening. 

Saturday will be the cold, blustery post-"winter storm" day. Highs will only get into the 60s to around 70, and there will be quite a few showers around. Nothing heavy, but just enough to make the day exactly the opposite of the warm, bright sunny Saturday we had last weekend. 

Sunday will be somewhat better, but we'll still have a risk of light showers. 

Very often, after a winter storm passes just to our north in, say, January,  a follow up storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. That gives Vermont a nice snowstorm, especially south. 

Again, no snow this time, it's a zillion times too warm. But Monday could turn out cool and rainy as a storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. It's still too soon to know how much rain, but the best chances are across southern Vermont. 

This "winter weather pattern" won't last all summer, of course. Temperatures should warm up to more seasonal levels later next week, with no cold season type storms in sight. 

Another Vermont Break: Severe Storms, Flooding Mostly Didn't Materialize. So, What's Next?N

Stormy, volatile looks skies over St. Albans, Vermont
last evening, but severe weather and flash flooding
mostly did not materialize in the Green Mountain
State on Sunday, despite forecasts to the contrary

Yesterday, we went through our second threat of severe, damaging weather in Vermont within three days, and once again, we largely escaped trouble.  

Maybe I feel a little like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, but not really. First of all, we should be grateful there wasn't much in the way of damaging storms or high water. Secondly, weather almost always surprises, despite our nation's supposed meteorological prowess. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

 I also think National Weather Service forecasting has deteriorated a little thanks to Trump's DOGE cuts to this critically important agency, but I'm still waiting on the studies that prove it. This is not a criticism of the meteorologists working at the NWS. It's a criticism of the government that's running it. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

There were a couple trouble spots last night. The National Weather Service had to issue a flash flood warning for the Green Mountains roughly between Rutland and White River Junction. Numerous small roads off of Route 4 near Killington became impassable overnight due to washouts and flooding. Up to four inches of rain was reported in the area. 

A flood advisory was still in effect early this morning over in northern New Hampshire. 

The rain was substantial in northern Vermont, but definitely less than feared. I don't have much in the way of reports yet, but I'm sure forecasts of over an inch of rain near the Canadian border came true. At least in a few spots. But the localized three inch totals probably didn't happen

There were no severe thunderstorms Sunday in Vermont that I'm aware of. I think the skies were too cluttered with clouds and showers during the morning and afternoon to produce the storms. Temperatures across much of central and northern Vermont held in the low to mid 70s under the clouds, not the 80s that had been predicted.

That meant less energy and less instability for severe storms. Almost all the severe weather stayed clustered in the Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the Mid-Atlantic states. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Now that our Sunday storm is done, we can look forward to some decent weather for the next couple of days before the next system arrives later in the week.

We'll go with partly sunny skies after clouds clear out this morning.  Broader valleys will be sunniest this afternoon as a few instability clouds litter the blue skies over the Green Mountains. Highs will be i the 70s. Tomorrow will pretty much be a carbon copy to today. 

We'll start getting back into the clouds and shower risks on Wednesday, but the day won't be a washout. Highs will reach the 70s to around 80.

Thursday looks like an interesting day from a meteorological perspective, but - fingers crossed - I suspect Vermont might dodge more bullets. No promises yet, but so far, it looks OK. 

A pretty strong storm  for this time of  year- one that you usually see in the winter, not summer - should originate around Colorado or Wyoming tomorrow. It will race east to a spot somewhere near Minnesota or Wisconsin on Wednesday. Then it will continue blasting generally eastward, arriving in southeastern Ontario or southern Quebec Thursday. 

The storm seems almost guaranteed to bring a nasty swath of severe thunderstorms and maybe tornadoes in the Midwest Wednesday and Mid-Atlantic States Thursday. 

On this path, Vermont would be in the sweet spot. We'd be close enough to the storm center so that the severe storms wouldn't get quite this far north. The heaviest rain would fall in Quebec. And besides, whether you're in Quebec or Vermont, the storm will blast through so quickly that we wouldn't get enough rain to create much flooding. 

I do give a caveat, as there is a risk some severe storms could sneak into Vermont, especially the south, but so far, so good. 

The storm will probably give us a decent dousing of rain. And since it will be an unusually strong storm, gusty non-thunderstorm winds might bring down a few isolated trees, branches or power lines. 

This is all early guesses. I'll have more when we get closer to the event. 

We're falling into a cool, unsettled weather pattern that will probably last until near the end of the month. Such a pattern features somewhat below normal temperatures most days. It also features frequent chances of showers, but overall rainfall after Thursday shouldn't really be all that heavy. 

Cold Storm Departs. Much Weaker Cold Storm Arrives Today But Summer Is Around The Corner!

Yes, that was snow gleaming at the summit of Mount
Mansfield, Vermont Saturday after a cold storm blew through

That storm yesterday really left its mark on New England with mountain snows and wind and rain and chilly temperatures reminiscent of March in some places. 

Here in Vermont, the weather got nice, if chilly. The afternoon sky lit up blue, with patchy, cold-looking stratocumulus clouds. 

The tippy top of Mount Mansfield gleamed white with new snow. Yes, on May 30. Nice contrast between the green slopes just below the snow. 

The weather wasn't so nice in so nice in eastern New England. The storm evolved into a nor'easter,, with many communities in eastern Massachusetts never getting above 50 degrees and wind gusts exceeding 50 mph. Hull, Massachusetts reached 60 mph. 

Adding to the drama, a meteor exploded over Cape Cod Bay somewhere between Boston and Provincetown Saturday afternoon, creating a loud boom and some shaking

Back here in Vermont, rainfall was more generous than predicted. Most places north and east of Interstate 89 had more than an inch of rain. Many towns in that wet region has more than 1.5 inches of rain. The town of Morgan was drenched with .2.19 inches of rain. Westfield had 1.9 inches.  

More rain is in the forecast, but nothing like we saw Friday night and early Saturday. 

TODAY

Skies clouded up overnight, preventing temperatures from getting cold enough for a frost. The clouds are from the next batch of showers and cold air aloft diving down through Quebec toward us. 

Unlike in eastern New England, skies cleared during the
late morning to reveal a delightfully sunny, breezy, 
cool afternoon to enjoy the outdoors,

This one is much weaker than the small-sized but big powerhouse we dealt with Friday night. So we'll see much less rain.  

Most places will only see 0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain, so this is only a slight wetting compared to what we saw Friday night. 

A few places will get a little more, because there's a chance a thunderstorm or two could be embedded within the mess of showers heading our way. 

If some thunderstorms get going, a few might  have pea sized hail since the air high above us is so cold. 

As far as timing goes, we already had a few light showers going on north as of 9 a.m. There will be a rising chance of showers north, spreading south through the day. The greatest chances of getting wet will probably is between 4 and 8 p.m., but of course there's chances of rain before and after those hours. 

Since its a cold system, it'll be cool for the season again today with highs in the 60s.

REST OF THE WEEK

We will slowly emerge from this cool spell and welcome back early summer.  Some potential complications that would keep us chilly longer are starting to seem less and less likely. 

Monday will probably start off cloudy, but clear up as temperatures rise only into the 60s, with maybe a spot 70 in warmer valleys far south and upper 50s in hilly terrain north. That's still a little cool as we start off June, but it's nothing incredible. 

The rest of the week looks pretty sunny and really nice. Highs should be near 70 Tuesday, well into the 70s Wednesday and probably into the 80s by Thursday. 

Cold fronts coming along toward next weekend look like they'll lack the oomph of the ones we saw in May, So generally warm weather will get June off to a great start, 

Snow In Vermont Mountains This Morning. It's Clearing Up, But Summer Weather Remains Days Away

Snow at the measuring stake near the top of
Sugarbush Resort, Vermont, elevation
 about 4,000 feet as snow dusted the 
peaks of New England overnight. 
 

 Our impressive and cold storm that came at us from Canada is winding down, and yes, it did snow in the mountains. 

I was checking out web cams, and the cameras that aren't frozen solid at summit definitely showed snow. 

The Bolton Mountain web cam showed wind-blown flurries early this morning. The Heaven's Gate web cam atop Sugarbush Ski Resort, at about 4,000 feet elevation showed a solid coating of snow 

The rainfall from this storm was impressive for what should be a cold, dry storm from the Arctic. The dynamics in this thing were incredible and were really able to wring the moisture out of the air. 

Montpelier has had at least 1.37 inches - it was still raining lightly there when I checked. St. Johnsbury clocked in at 1.73 inches. I'm betting we'll have a couple places in the Northeast Kingdom go over two inches. 

Enough rain fell around the White Mountains that a flood warning was issued for the area around Conway, New Hampshire. The Saco River there was expected to reach minor flood stage there. 

Weather geeks like me were fascinated by this storm. It was tiny in area, but it has been a powerhouse. While it was still in Quebec, the storm formed a cold front of sorts that managed to sweep a line of some strong thunderstorms through parts of northern New York and Vermont. Radar indicated outflow winds of 50 mph or so over Lake Champlain.

The "cold front" became more south to north oriented or even southeast to northwest oriented over eastern Vermont. That tapped a moisture source from the Atlantic Ocean, helping to explain the heavy rains. 

Further west, there was a sharp cutoff in the amount of rainfall. Burlington has 0,6 inches of rain. Plattsburgh had a little under a half inch. 

The storm was pulling away to the south and east as of 9 a.m. this morning, taking its precipitation with it. 

REST OF TODAY

Radar mage of the storm last night at around 10:30 p.m.
The center of the storm was about over Montreal
at the time. 

It's actually going to be a fairly nice day after the rest of the rain stops this morning. It was already sunny and breezy here in St. Albans as of 9 a.m. That trend will cover the entire state today. 

It'll feel like the end of April instead of the end of May. Temperatures should stay in the mid and upper 50s, with maybe a couple low 60s in the warmer valleys. 

SUNDAY

Another disturbance will come in from the north much like last night's did. But this one will be much weaker. 

We'll just have increasing clouds with a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs should get well into the 60s, but that's still a little cooler than average for this time of year. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: More cool weather, more showers as a deep dip in the jet stream stays over or just east of New England.  Much of the time will be dry, and highs will e in the 60s to near 70

BEYOND TUESDAY. It looks like the deep dip in the jet stream might evolve into a cut off low near or just off the East Coast. A cut off low is a storm that meanders around, not moving north because the jet stream has moved off to the north. The jet stream being to the north, there's nothing to push the storm along. 

Fingers crossed, the cut off low will hopefully be too far south to bother us. If that forecasts pans out, then the second half of the week would be dry and warm. 

Unexpected Clouds Rescued Most Of Vermont/North Country From A Nasty Freeze

The sky looked chilly over St. Albans yesterday, leading
to forecasts of freezes and frosts. It did get cold last
night, but it was a couple degrees warmer than 
forecasts, so no hard freezes. That was good
for vulnerable plants and crops.

For the most part, it didn't get quite as cold in most of Vermont overnight, thanks mostly to some unexpected clouds that covered the skies over northern parts of the state early this morning. 

Clouds tend to hold in heat, so it ended up a few degrees warmer than it otherwise would have been.

Under clearer skies, Bennington did manage to get to at least 31 degrees, and Rutland was at 32.  

Most of northern Vermont away from the Champlain Valley were also in the low 30s, so there was at least light frost around. But we had no hard freezes except in the coldest hollows where the growing season hasn't really started anyway. 

The Champlain Valley remained mostly frost free, though Middlebury. a little south of that cloud cover, did manage to touch 32 degree.  It looks like Burlington bottomed out at a reasonable 39 degrees. which won't even be the coldest night this month. It was 37 degrees on May 8.

Until recent years, it would almost always get below freezing in Burlington during May. That has changed with climate change intensifying. Since 2011, May temperatures in Burlington have touched 32 degrees on only three occasions. 

Judging from weather forecasts, Burlington will not see any freezing temperatures this May, either. 

FORECAST

The good news is it's going to get wet. We actually need the rain. And eventually, it's going to get warmer. 

Today

The clouds in the north should at least partly clear out today.  If it all works out, we'll end up with a classic cool May afternoon. Sun will mix with clouds and highs will only reach the 50s, which is a good ten degrees cooler than average. 

With such a cool days in store, you'd think we'd be in for another frost and freeze risk tonight. There might well be areas of frost, especially in central and eastern Vermont, but overall, tonight will be a bit warmer than last night. 

That's because more clouds will be coming in. This will introduce a fairly long stretch of wet weather.

Wednesday/Thursday

There's some debate as to when the rain will start Wednesday. Could be early in the morning, could be in the late morning. But it's not going to be a nice day. Another stay indoors day for sure. It'll be rainy and cool, with chilly southeast breezes. Once again we'll  only get into the 50s. 

The storm coming in from the west will eventually transfer to a new, sluggish system on or near the New England coast. That will keep moisture coming inland across the region. That means on and off rain through Thursday. 

Early estimates say most of us would get between a half and three quarters of an inch of rain out of this, with maybe bit less right near the Canadian border.  A few spots central and south could get over an inch of rain. 

Friday/Weekend

That offshore New England storm will probably keep clouds and some showers going on Friday, but my early guess is it won't be a washout. And it'll be a little warmer, with highs in the 60s.

The weekend looks pretty good. There is a slight chance of showers, I suppose, but we'll also a fair amount of sun, fingers crossed. The bigger news is the temperature: It should get to at least near 70 degrees each day. 

The entire weather pattern is changing.  For the rest of May, chilly blasts of air will have a much more difficult time coming in from Canada than they did during the first half of the month. There might be a cool day thrown in here and there. But otherwise we'll launch into what I call pre-summer. 

The weather will be almost summery, but not quite. That means lots of 70s and for almost all of us, no chance of nighttime more frosts.

Let those gardens grow! 

Frosty Times In Vermont As Long Awaited Warm Weather Is Postponed A Bit M

Late afternoon sun lights up this spring scene in 
my St. Albans, Vermont back yard on Sunday.
Cool weather will preserve the flowers for
awhile, but sensitive plants are staying inside
tonight because of a frost risk. 

Morning showers yesterday, some unexpectedly heavy in northwest Vermont, gave way to a beautiful, breezy and mild Mother's Day. But also as expected, that nice weather yielded to a frosty morning in parts of Vermont this morning.  

Most places away from the Champlain Valley were in the low and mid 30s, which brings us into frost territory. 

The cool weather will go on all week, as some changes in the forecast have postponed some long awaited warm weather. But those balmy conditions are still on the way. Eventually.   

Let's take a gander at this week's cool weather. 

TODAY

Clouds will mix in with the sun this afternoon, especially north and mountains, as a very, very wimpy little disturbance passes by. There might even be a light shower or sprinkle in a few spot. Highs will hold in the mid and upper 50s, which is about ten degrees below normal for this time of year.

Tonight will be the coldest of the bunch, and I'm sure the National Weather Service in South Burlington will issue another round of frost advisories by the time they release their updated forecasts this afternoon. 

I'm not sure yet, but unlike last night, I suspect the frost advisories might extend into the Champlain Valley. Lows should range from the mid and upper 20s in the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom, to the low 30s in most of Vermont and the mid-30s in the Champlain Valley. Take those sensitive plants indoors! 

As readers of this here blog thingy probably know, I almost always say it could be worse, and I find receipts that prove it. 

For example, on this day in Burlington, 1963, the high temperature was only 40 degrees, the low was 30 degrees and we had some cold rain, mixed with a  trace of snow. 

And on this date in 1945, higher elevations in southern Vermont was blasted by a mid-winter style snowfall. Somerset and Wilmington got 15 inches of snow, and 10 inches fell in Dorset. In lower elevations. 5.5 inches of snow accumulated in Rutland. 

OK moving on. 

TUESDAY

Another cool, sunny day after the morning frost with highs in the 50s. Actually a very nice, comfortably cool day to get things down outdoors. Aside from the black flies, that is.  Tuesday night will get chilly once again, so frost will be an issue for the third night in a row. It should be a couple degrees warmer than tonight because clouds will start to cover the skies overnight.  

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY

Those clouds will lead to frequent showers starting Wednesday afternoon and continuing well into Thursday. I'm not sure how much rain we'll get, but it doesn't look like we'll exactly drown. This isn't a powerhouse weather system that's coming in. 

We'll be done with the frost, finally, as the clouds will keep overnight temperatures in the 40s. But those same clouds and showers will hold daytime temperatures down to within a few degrees either side of 60. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

The weather system from Wednesday and Thursday now seems like it might sort of stall out over the ocean east of New England. That will keep clouds here in Vermont Friday and maybe into part of Saturday. And that storm will blunt the expected warmup, but only temporarily. 

It should get into the low 60s Friday and well into the 60s to near 70. That would be the first time in a week with near normal temperatures. 

The weather pattern does seem like it wants to evolve into something better if you're a warm weather fan.  Instead of the flow from Canada we've had since the very end of April, it looks like weather systems will want to zip through here on a nice west to east fashion starting next weekend. 

That means the second half of the month would provide us with near normal to somewhat warmer than normal conditions. Under that scenario, we'd end up with many but not all days making it into the 70s. The warmest days would be near 80 and the coolest days in that stretch would be in the 60s. 

In other words, almost, but not quite summer weather. Won't that be nice?

Cold Spell Of Vermont May Weather Continues With Snow, Freezes; Chilly Pattern To Continue

Daffodils enjoy some morning sun today in St. Albans,
Vermont. Cool weather has kept the daffodils blooming

Friday's weather in Vermont made a liar out of me. 

I said the other day we wouldn't get snow this week or next, except maybe at the tippy top of the mountains. 

Well, when I was in Enosburg Falls, Vermont yesterday, there was a graupel shower. While I was trying to mow a lawn, for gawd's sake. 

Graupel is that sleety, white snow that looks like it partly melted and refroze on the way down. Just regular snowflakes were spotted Friday in Readsboro, in southern Vermont. 

The place in Readsboro where it snowed is at a pretty high elevation, but not at the summit of any mountains. I'm sure it snowed in other places as well. Killington Ski Resort still has a trail with many feet of snow on it. They traditionally close for the season around Memorial Day or at about June 1. 

At this rate in the cool weather, Killington will be open to skiers all summer. I don't really believe that, but the chilly weather is starting to slow down the pace of spring. 

Last night was cold, too. Morning lows today in the Champlain Valley were in the mid-30s, so I think a frost advisory should have been issued there. A hard freeze hit some places away from the lake this morning. Montpelier got to at least 27 degrees and Morrisville was at 27 at 6 a.m. 

Saranac Lake, the perennial cold spot in the Adirondacks, was at a frigid 21 degrees at 6 a.m. today. 

On the bright side, it's not hot and humid, which would be even worse than the fleece and jacket weather we've been having. And the cold air keeps the early spring flowers going for longer. My daffodils look fantabulous this year. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

It'll be a little warmer this weekend, but not spectacularly so. And it's back to cool weather next week, though. And even though we'll see frequent chances of showers, we're not really going to get all the rain we need, either. 

A warm front of sorts is lifting up through Vermont today.  That means far southern Vermont should actually see some rain today, with maybe a quarter to a third of an inch down there.  It was already raining near the Massachusetts border early this morning. 

After a lot of morning sun, it will tend to cloud up this afternoon north. Central and northern Vermont will see little if any rain later today, and maybe just some light, boring showers tonight. 

A few showers might splatter down on Mother's Day, but they'll be hit and miss, won't last long and won't amount to much. Sunday will also actually feature normal temperatures for this time of year, with highs well into the 60s.

Enjoy the brief heat while you can. 

We'll be back down with 50s for highs during the first half of the week, which will be about ten degrees below normal. There's a chance of frost this coming Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

It still looks like it might warm up somewhat during the second half of next week.  Current projections suggest temperatures will head toward normal May levels. That's mid 60s to around 70.  Rainfall will probably stay scant for at least a week, probably more.  

We Got Through Our Cold Vermont Rainy Day, Coming Up: A Hard To Predict Cool Regime

After a chilly, rainy day with a low gray overcast dawn until'
evening. Here in St. Albans, though, the sun broke through
right at sunset, giving us a brief burst of bright light
to promise a return of nicer weather in the coming days. 

Yesterday worked out about as expected, with day long rains soaking the ground and getting trees and plants a boost to keep bursting out in spring green.  

Rainfall amounts were close to forecasts in most places. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury and Rutland all had something close to an inch of rain. Bennington and Springfield had a little over a half inch, which was - again - in line with forecasts. 

Burlington was an exception. They only got a half inch or so of rain yesterday. Which means that long term record for most rain May 6, which is 0.85 in 1894 still stands.

Although surface winds were from the north, keeping Burlington's temperatures in the 40s all day, the moisture flow was from the southwest. I think the Adirondacks were blocking some of the moisture from the Champlain Valley. 

WHAT'S NEXT?

Part of the answer to that question, What's Next, is, who knows? We have that dip in the jet stream that will keep us cooler than average on most, but maybe not all days over the next week to 10 days. 

Today and tomorrow look pretty straight forward. We'll have sun, with clouds mixing in, especially near the mountains. One minute the sun will be out, the next it won't, them it will reappear. The chances of showers are pretty low, so if you have outdoor plans, you should be good. 

Both today and tomorrow will be cool for the season, but at least it will be much warmer than yesterday.  Most of Vermont should reach into the 50s both days.

WEEKEND

Here's where we are a bit at a loss as to what will happen. The broad brush idea is pretty clear. A weak warm front will come through Saturday, bringing temperatures ever so slightly warmer to the upper 50s to near 60. 

It'll be even warmer Sunday. with highs in the 60s. That might seem pretty warm, but now we're so late into the spring that 60s is exactly normal. We also have chances of showers both days. 

Fine, but how many showers and how much rain will fall?  The weather systems circulating through the big dip in the jet stream parked over the Great Lakes and Northeast are kind of small and fast moving. And they're interacting with each other in a way that makes it hard to predict their exact path.

So figuring out where the best moisture will set up, where the showers will concentrate, when the showers will arrive and leave is hard to tell. 

Bottom line: If you have outdoor plans for Mother's Day, you might get away with it, but you are taking chances. I noticed meteorologists are trying to time out when the showers will hit and where the rain will come down the hardest. So far, it looks like most of the daylight hours on Sunday might stay dry, but that forecast could easily change. 

Actually, expect forecast changes from Saturday onward into next week.   The good news is that whatever happens, we won't have any extreme weather over the next several days. No scary thunderstorms. It'll be cool, with even a frost risk on some nights.  But no hard freezes. Also, no torrential rains  no floods. And no snow, aside from a slight risk of flakes at the tippy top of the mountains, maybe, 

Cold, Rainy Day In Vermont Keeping Us Indoors, But Giving Us A Needed Soaking

National Weather Service radar showed rain moving southwest
to northeast from New York into Vermont as of 9:45 a.m. 
today. So as you can see, we're in for a wet day. 
That rain-free area in southeast Vermont should
get wet later today. 

 I'm posting this morning's update late than usual because I decided to sleep in today. 

It's a perfect day to do it, with a steady rain drumming on the roof and chilly air outside. Might as well relax for a change, right?  

The wind and thunderstorms and power outages from yesterday have faded. 

Most of the power outages were in eastern Vermont.  Gusty winds ahead of the showers and thunderstorms knocked trees to power lines in places like Barre and Thetford. 

As mentioned yesterday, trees are suddenly getting heavier as thousands of leaves on each tree sprout and grow. 

That many leaves are heavy when taken together. If you have a large tree in your yard and have to rake and remove the leaves in the fall, you know what I'm talking about. 

If a tree was weakened during the winter, the new leaves and the wind can combine to knock them down. We'll see more random trees break or fall here and there as the leaves continue to grow. 

A few brush fires developed in eastern Vermont before the showers, too. A tree fell on a power line in Newfane, sparking a brush fire there. 

There won't be any brush fires in Vermont today. Here are the details

TODAY

It was raining everywhere in Vermont as of 9 a.m. except in far southeastern Vermont.  A cold front is creeping across the state at a snail's pace while a wave of low pressure rides along the front. We're still looking at storm totals from yesterday afternoon to this evening of around an inch, with more in some spots. 

There's a good chance that Burlington, Vermont will break a very old record for the today's date. The wettest May 6 on record is 0.85 inches set way back in 1894. Those forecasts for an inch of rain today would break that record. 

Southeastern Vermont will see less rain, with maybe a half inch expected. Which sucks, because that's the driest part of the state. It would have been nice if they'd get more rain out to this. Spoiler: There will be more rain chances after today. 

The rain will start to dwindle first in northwest mid to late afternoon and that trend of rain ending will then spread southeast in the evening. 

Highs should stay in the 40s north and hold in the 50s for the most part south, so it's a cold, wet May day. Get your indoor projects done today!

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

Both days will be cool for the season, but not bad. This weather pattern always has us under a threat of a shower, but if any develop either of these days, they should be light and isolated.  Forecasters are also expecting a fair amount of sun  mixed with the clouds both days. Highs should only be in the 50s to low 60s, which is cooler than average for this time of year.  

WEEKEND

Things could change, but it's looking unsettled. One little storm looks like it will go just to our south, so most of the rain will hit southern New England. But, we'll have clouds and a good chance of showers. Especially in southern Vermont. It won't be a big dump of rain down there, but it add a little more water to the fields and gardens down there. 

A slightly stronger storm will approach Sunday. At first, That will probably warm us up well into the 60s. If we're lucky, the rain will hold off until Sunday night. 

There's still lots of questions on the speed, path and intensity of that storm, so we don't know how much rain we'll get. 

After that, it's back to the relatively cool, unsettled weather we've had most days lately. 

Monday Morning Vermont Update: More Rain And Cool Temperatures After Brief Warmup

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center map for tomorrow
depicting where severe thunderstorms are forecast.
Notice the green over northern New England. 
That's a level one out of five alert levels, meaning
they have a risk of isolated, brief severe storms
for us Tuesday afternoon. We'll see if that pans out. 

So much for what was supposed to be our slightly cool but bright and sunny Sunday. 

Instead, a pool of frigid air thousands of feed overhead fueled lots of clouds, held temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 across most of the state.  

Graupel - a sort of sleety, frozen snow -  fell as I tried to help a St. Albans woman with her garden cleanup, and I'm sure it fell elsewhere. 

I'm sure graupel fell along with light, cold rain showers fell elsewhere in the state Sunday. 

At 4 p.m., it was still only 28 degrees atop Mount Mansfield with a wind chill of 15. Lyndonville at the time was only 44 degrees. 

So, March in May. I'm sure there were lots of complaints.

TODAY

This morning, I awoke to wet ground again in St. Albans. My bar is now set so low I was just grateful to find no snow on the ground. 

Some light showers hit early this morning due to a warm front passing by. A weakening band of additional showers in northern New York early this morning should  hold the clouds over northern Vermont through much of the morning and maybe yield a few more light showers. 

At least the sun is supposedly coming out this afternoon. We'll see!  Highs should get up into the low 60s, which would feel fantastic compared to the chill we dealt with over the weekend. 

Tonight should be mild, too, especially in the Champlain Valley. Warmer nights tend to really boost the spring green up. Our hillsides are starting to show a haze of green as trees bud and flower and baby leaves spring into existence. You'll notice a difference by the end of the day tomorrow. 

TUESDAY

Speaking of differences, there's differences of opinion on how stormy tomorrow afternoon will turn. It'll be a mild day, as temperatures will be able to get into the low 70s for many of us on solid southwest winds and some sunshine. 

We know there's a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. But what about thunderstorms?

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has northern New England, including all but extreme southern Vermont in a marginal risk (level 1 on a five point scale) of severe thunderstorms 

High humidity is one useful ingredient for severe thunderstorms, and we really won't have that.  Dew points will be in the 40s to around 50.  That doesn't scream severe weather like a humid 60 degree dew point might. 

But, there's strong winds aloft, and the atmosphere several thousand feet up will be quite cold. That could help create enough instability to create towering clouds to produce thunderstorms. 

Forecasters also expect high winds aloft. Thunderstorms can grab that high wind and bring it to the surface. That means an isolated risk of wind damage. Winds will also change direction with height, so the Storm Prediction Center even has a very, very minuscule, but not zero percent chance of a brief spin up tornado in central and northern Vermont.  

Everyone agrees this won't be any king of widespread severe outbreak. Just a risk of isolated trouble. 

However, as the National Weather Service office in Burlington points out, there are factors that could mean there might not be any severe weather at all, and maybe not much in the way of any thunderstorms. 

One is that lack of high humidity. Another reason there might not be big storms is that clouds and even light showers could come in during the early and mid-afternoon. That would stabilize the atmosphere and prevent vigorous thunderstorms. 

So, there you have it.  We'll offer updates tomorrow morning, of course. 

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY

National Weather Service prediction map that shows the
amount of rain expected between now and Thursday 
morning. Most of Vermont would get somewhere 
near an inch of rain if this forecast is accurate. 

Everyone seems to agree Tuesday night and Wednesday will be rainy. And colder. Low will drop into the 40s by Wednesday morning and barely make it to 50 Wednesday afternoon amid the cold rain. 

If you're looking for a day to stay inside and get stuff done there, Wednesday' your day. 

Total rainfall right now looks like it will be about an inch, give or take. We could use the soaking, so OK. As always, there could be adjustments to that forecast,

LATE WEEK/WEEKEND

It looks like we're in for a repeat of what we had late last week and this past weekend. Clouds, peeks of sun and an ever-present chance of showers. It's too early to pick out when the showers are most likely. Any rain that does fall should be really light and not amount to too much. 

Like this past weekend, it will be cool. But probably not quite a chilly as this past weekend was. Maybe mid to upper 50s instead of low 50s.  We'll take any improvement we can get. 

The overall weather pattern that has kept most days rather cool in the opening days of May should continue through mid-month. But the pattern looks like it wants to slowly get less intense. So, at least after Wednesday, the chances of seeing a day as brisk and cold as this past Saturday and Sunday are diminishing. 

A Damp, Dreary Saturday Morning Leads To A Showery Vermont Afternoon. Wet Week Ahead?

Screen grab from the WCAX web cam high up on
Mount Mansfield showed new snow on the trees
this morning. Yes, it's a chilly Vermont May morning. 

We're starting the day with light rain across much of Vermont. Especially northwest Vermont judging from the radar at 8 a.m. today. 

It's not amounting to much, with almost everyone receiving a tenth of an inch of rain or less. Some places so far might have gotten nothing. 

It's chilly out there, too.  As of 8 a.m., temperatures in most valleys were hovering near 40 degrees. 

That means snow was falling in the high elevations, so when or if it clears up a little later today,  you'll maybe see a snow capped Mount Mansfield, Camels Hump or Jay Peak. The WCAX web cam from high up on Mount Mansfield revealed new snow on the trees this morning. 

At slightly lower elevations, if you looked very closely this morning at the traffic camera on Route 242 in Westfield near Jay Peak, you could see snowflakes in the air, though it wasn't sticking.

But that traffic camera on Route 242 shows patches of snow in the woods from this past winter. Spring definitely doesn't arrive at the same time in different areas of Vermont.

For virtually everyone in Vermont, though, this Saturday morning is definitely not springlike. It'll slowly get better, though, as we go through the next few days. But you'll still be dodging raindrops for much of the next week or so. 

REST OF TODAY

The National Weather Service in South Burlington tells us that those of us who are getting a somewhat steadier, light rain should see that disappear by late morning. But we're not done. It's never that easy. 

The air high overhead is frigid.  Which means, counterintuitively, that the sun this afternoon will help manufacture more clouds and showers. The sun will heat the ground, leading to updrafts. Since the air is so cold way up above us, the clouds will tower up enough to produce showers. 

They'll be hit and miss. Some of us will get wet this afternoon, some of us won't. It will be the luck of the draw. In a few cases the NWS says a few showers could be very briefly on the heavy side. And I wouldn't be surprised if the strongest of the showers contain harmless hailstorms sized smaller than peas   or graupel. 

Graupel is like frozen bits of snow that look like soft, white, tiny hailstones or bits of packing material. 

You've probably guessed by now that today won't be particularly warm. You guessed correctly. Highs today should get maybe into the low 50s, which is about 10 degrees cooler than average. Some areas north and in the high elevations might not get out of the 40s today. 

Temperatures won't have far to fall to get near the freezing point tonight, so there will be patchy frost. If you've put out sensitive plants, you're too early. Bring 'em in today. 

SUNDAY

This looks like the better of the two days. We still have a risk of a shower, but any showers will be very light and much less common than what we'll see today.  Most of us will stay dry. Sometimes the sun will be out, sometimes not. So it will be a difficult day to dress for. 

When the sun is out and you're between wind gusts, it'll feel nice. When the clouds are overhead and the wind blows a little, you'll shiver. High temperatures will only be in the 50s, though, so definitely bring the fleece if you're headed outdoors.  

NEXT WEEK

It looks like it might turn out to be quite a wet stretch, if a weather front stalls nearby as many of the computer models expect.

The nicer days of the week should be Monday and Tuesday. Both days will feature warmer air, and showers should be relatively few and far between. Highs should be in the low 60s Monday, so pretty close to average. 

On Tuesday, a cold front will be approaching. If the clouds and showers hold off until the end of the day, we could see highs well into the 70s. If it clouds up earlier, it would mean 60s to around 70.

What happens Wednesday into Friday depends on which computer model you believe. Some of the models have the front stalling somewhere over the region, and pulling in lots of moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. 

If that happens, we could potentially see as much as one to three inches of rain  over those three days. 

Other models move things along a little faster, which would mean less rain for us. 

Almost all the weather models have us cooling down later in the week.  Certainly cooler than normal for May. That fits with the May predictions we saw even a couple weeks ago. Those forecasts said we'd have a cool first half of May, with maybe one or two warm days thrown in. 

Looks like that's coming true. 

Friday Morning: Hard Core Spring Arrives In Vermont

After a windy, dry day, some wind-roiled, interesting 
clouds set up shop overhead in St. Albans, Vermont
Thursday at sunset. Clouds are back today, and
by the end of the day they'll yield some April showers.

 As expected, we had our gusty, mild Thursday, as temperatures reached the low 60s in many areas.

The wind made outdoor spring clean up difficult, especially in the Champlain Valley. I see that Burlington gusted to as high as 49 mph on Thursday. The relative humidity was down in the teens and low 20s, so the forecast of a high fire danger was also correct. 

I'm sure there were a few instances of out of control fires yesterday in Vermont. Small, but potentially dangerous. 

I'm aware of one fire up on Skunks Misery Road in Franklin, Vermont. I had to mention this blaze, which was quickly brought under control, because it's my favorite street name in the state.

TODAY

Anyway, there's still some lingering fire danger today, especially in southern Vermont, where it's drier. Winds are lighter, but not calm, so we still have to be careful out there. A cold front is approaching, and that will provide a little rain later this afternoon and evening to tamp down the fire risk a little bit. 

The clouds will come in from the west and north, and that will have an effect on the temperatures. Where it clouds up first in  northwest Vermont, temperatures should still make it up to around 60 degrees, which is still relatively mild for this time of year. So, fine. It'll be in the 60s in central Vermont and near 70 in warmer valleys south. 

We'll have a  rising chance of showers this afternoon first in the northwest, then spreading south and east. It looks like very little rain will fall until very late this afternoon and into the evening, when the bulk of it will come down.

"Bulk" is a bit of an extreme word for the situation we're actually facing. We're only going to see a quarter to a third of an inch of rain, give or take, north and central, with a tenth of an inch or less in the lower Connecticut River Valley. 

This all might end as a few snowflakes in the highest elevations north overnight, but most of us won't see any snow this time. It fact, if you're a weird hard core snow lover, you're kind of screwed. For once, no snow is really in the forecast at all. I think that's the first time since late October I could say that!

WEEKEND

It'll be a cool April weekend, but certainly not frigid.  Saturday will be a classic April day: Highs will be in the 40s to around 50. We'll see some nippy north breezes, but bright sunshine should take the edge off the chill. 

It'll be below freezing overnight Saturday night, but it won't be the deep, near record cold we saw Wednesday morning. Instead, it'll just be a typical April freeze with lows in the 20s to around 30.

You'll notice skies clouding up Sunday as temperatures hold in the low 50s. We'll see a rising chance of rain as we go through the day, too.  Get your outdoor stuff done in the morning if you can. 

NEXT WEEK

We have some hard core spring weather coming with warm temperatures, relatively humid air and a frequent risk of showers, especially in northern Vermont. 

There will be a front nearby separating relatively cool air to the north with almost summer-like air south. It's hard to say exactly where the front will set up, but it should waver north and south occasionally as disturbances roll through. 

The early guess is northern Vermont will be on the warm side,  with highs most of next week in the 60s to possibly near 70.  I'll happily take that if we comes!

Far southern Vermont could see a few days in a row of downright summer conditions, with highs in the 70s to possibly near 80 and mild low in the 50s. You might even be tempted to get you air conditioning set up for the summer. 

That's no guarantee, the forecast is going to need refining and updating between now and Monday. But regardless, I think you're going to see things turning greener and buds swelling outside very nicely over the next week or so. 

Next thing you know, you'll be mowing your lawn. It'll hit sooner than you think. Especially with the kind of weather that's in the forecast. 

Despite the usual snowy setbacks, it's been an incredibly easy spring in Vermont so far. It looks like that will continue.  I hope I''m not jinxing it. The last thing we need is a wintry May! 

First Warmer Than Averages Temperatures In 2 Weeks Coming To Vermont, But Don't Bring Out The Swimsuits

Typically blah November this morning in St. Albans,
Vermont with still some snow on the ground. 
After a long cool stretch, we might have a couple
of warmer than normal days coming up. 

 Today has a shot at being the first nominally warmer than average day in Vermont - at least as measured in Burlington -since November 8. 

I haven't been able to check how long it's been since we've had that long a stretch of below normal readings. But this stretch comes with caveats. 

You've heard me say this a million times already but I still have to point out this the "new normal," which is based on the average temperatures between 1990 and 2020.  

By those decades, climate change had already taken hold, so "normal" temperatures these days are above what we would have expected through most of the 20th century. 

Had this November occurred in say, 1980, some days in the stretch from November 8 to today would have been slightly warmer than average. 

Even though we're basing comparisons on the "new normal" this month has provided us with the first sustained chillier than average spell in a long time. This will probably be the coolest month relative to average since at least November, 2023, but more likely since January, 2022.  

Only four of the last 24 months have been cooler than our climate changed new warmer average.  

So, a November that was only a little cooler than the historical average seemed frigid to us climate change warriors. 

OUTLOOK

Now, we get to enjoy three or so sort of warmer than average days coming up before it turns chillier again. 

Of course, warmer than average isn't all that toasty for late November. 

Today might or might not get above average for the date. It depends on how fast this morning's thick overcast and patchy fog lifts into partly sunny skies. If it clears up by late morning or noon, we could get up to 40 or a little more. If it stays cloudy, we're probably stuck in the 30s. 

Tomorrow, we'll get into some south winds ahead of the next storm. That storm won't cause a lot of havoc for us, but will bring quite a squirt of warm air toward us.  Many of us will get into the mid-40s tomorrow, and into the low and mid 50s Wednesday. 

We'll have to watch Wednesday, as there could be some surprises with the temperature. If things work out just right, we could have readings near 60 degrees.

The storm will bring two waves of rain through Vermont. One Tuesday night, one late Wednesday night and early on the day on Thanksgiving. The rain won't be especially heavy, but it will reach even the mountain summits. 

A cold front will come through early on Thanksgiving Day and we'll get into some blustery weather.  Thanksgiving itself won't be too cold amid the scattered rain and mountain snow showers. The weather shouldn't get in the way for you to get  over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house. Or wherever the hell you're going. 

Any rain showers in the valleys will flip to snow Thursday evening.  There won't be much accumulation, except in the mountains. But still, there might be some not so great road conditions here and there Thanksgiving night. So if you're blasting your F-250 through the mountain roads Thursday night, just remember you're not invincible. 

Is getting up way before dawn on Black Friday to wait in cold, windy parking lots to barge into stores for blockbuster deals still a thing?  If it is, bundle up if you're into that sort of adventure. It'll indeed be cold and windy with snowflakes blasting through the air. 

The not-terribly extreme cold snap will be brief, lasting through Saturday night.Then it looks like it will briefly warm up Sunday and Monday as another modest storm comes through. 

After that, chances are we'll get into an extended cold spell again in December. Not sure on that yet, as long range forecasts are sometimes a little shady. But for the first time in years, we might have two consecutive truly cooler than average months in years. 

Even so, climate change rages on. Going forward, most months will be warmer than that your parents used to experience. 

Big Weather Changes To Hit Vermont Today As "Pre-Autumn" Arrives

Despite my watering efforts, this summer's heat and 
drought has taken a toll on garden plants like 
hostas, like this small one here. It's about to turn
much cooler, but unfortunately, we're not
going to get all that much rain. 

It got toasty again Saturday in our hot Vermont summer of '25, but be prepared today for a real shock to the system.  

More on that in a minute, but let's take a look back at our warm Saturday. 

Though most places in Vermont stayed in the 80s, Burlington made it to 90 degrees again Saturday, the 17th time it got that warm in Burlington. That puts 2025 in a five-way tie for 5th most 90s in a single season. The most was 26 in 1949, so we won't break that record. 

A major shift in the weather pattern means chances are pretty good - but not definite - that we might have seen our last 90 degree day of 2025.

PRE-AUTUMN STARTS TODAY

You're really going to notice the cold front that will come through today. Unfortunately, the big event won't be because of a lot of rain, but instead, plunging temperatures. 

I'll call it pre-autumn, and it's arriving more or less on schedule for the Green Mountain State. It traditionally hits sometimes in the second half of August and is a spell of cool weather that truly feels like fall. 

In recent years, we haven't really had that late August cool spell quite as much. Thanks, climate change!  But this year, I guess we're having an old school type late summer. This doesn't mean summer weather is over, but this cold front is just a shot across the bow warning us that fall is coming 

Today

The cold front, which was poised in southern Quebec this morning doesn't have all that much moisture to work with. It hasn't really gotten humid ahead of it, so there's not a lot of water in the air to work with. Plus, this thing will be moving fast, so rain won't last all that long. 

So, we'll maybe see a tenth to as much as a third of an inch of rain. Not enough to make a big dent in the brittle dryness we've been seeing. 

High temperatures today in Vermont will range widely, from the mid 70s northwest to upper 80s southeast.  The front will reach the northwest first, which is why it will be cooler up there. 

I'm burying the headline a little but it will get noticeably colder this afternoon and evening. If you're going to be out and about today, bring a hoodie or jacket and maybe some long pants. It might start warm, but it will be cold by mid to late afternoon. Especially north. 

North of Route 2, temperatures this afternoon could drop into the upper 50s, making it the first "autumn" day of the season. Further south, it'll go into the low and mid 60s, though southern Vermont will probably go from the 80s most of the day to the low 70s late afternoon or evening. 

Be careful out on Lake Champlain, too. The wind will abruptly shift from south to north and get gusty. Amid those falling temperatures, you'll get those showers, cold winds and waves could reach to three to five feet out on the broad lake. 

Stays Cool

Most of us in Vermont will start Monday with temperatures in the 40s. Maybe near 50 close to Lake Champlain. Sunshine will get us up into the 68 to 77 degree range Monday. Cool for mid-August, but not as nippy as late this afternoon in northern Vermont.   

The cool air will stick around for a few days. After another cool night, highs on Tuesday will get well into the 70s in many places as sunshine begins to fade behind some clouds. Those highs are still a touch below normal but not far off.

Wednesday could be quite cool under clouds and showers. A lot of us won't get out of the 60s for highs. Very September-like. 

Showers? Did someone say showers? I sure did, but again, unfortunately whatever comes through Wednesday will be no drought buster. But we'll take anything for rain, so midweek might be an unexpected mini-blessing.

Unexpected because previous forecasts indicated little if any rain this week. But now it looks like, or we hope a weak disturbance could draw in enough moisture to maybe give us a quarter inch of rain, give or take. Meteorologists will refine the expected rainfall when we get closer to the event. 

It looks like the end of the week and beginning of the weekend will warm back up to summer levels (highs in the low 80s) but that probably won't last. This new weather pattern seems destined to bring in more chilly air the following week.

It's also too soon to get into details, but the upcoming pattern seems to unfortunately favor a lot of sun and not much rain. Sure, everybody loves a sunny day, but we also are getting more desperate for some super soaker storms. 

That doesn't look like it's in the cards for awhile.