A Blustery Monday To Be Followed By A Blustery Day Today, Frost Tonight, A Dry Vermont Foliage Week Ahead

Gusty winds and scattered showers (you can see a 
billowing shower cloud upper right) greeted 
Vermonters Monday. The photo looks pleasant,
but the gusty winds felt awfully chilly. 

By Vermont standards, Monday's air wasn't really cold at all. It was in the 50s with a stiff west winds. But Henry the weather dog ended up shivering at the dog park in the afternoon, and I was shivering just as much. 

It was the coolest day we've had this autumn, and it felt it. 

Tis the season. 

The showers that got going Monday morning and afternoon formed in cold enough air to drop small hail in towns like Montgomery and Fairfax and others. The winds were gusty for sure. 

Burton Island had gusts to 41 mph, Colchester Reef saw 39 mph and 30 to 35 mph at numerous locations. 

Get used to the wind.  Winter is much, much windier than summer. Winter is coming.  So if you don't want the wind to wreck your hairdo, you're in for a very, very several months. 

The wind will keep blowing today, but not as hard as it did yesterday. Here are the details: 

TODAY

Clouds still covered northern Vermont this morning. The south was clear. Sunshine will increase during the day and those northwest winds will continue to gust. Maybe not as much as yesterday, but you'll notice. The air will turn dry, too. The humidity will be low enough for to issue a Chap Stick weather alert.  

Highs today will be in the low and mid 50s.  

If you missed out on freezing temperatures last night, chances are you'll see them tonight. There's a frost advisory for all of the Champlain Valley, including the islands. Though Lake Champlain might protect many places on the islands from the frost. 

Another saving grace that might protect some gardens in the Champlain is the first stirrings of south winds as the cold high pressure system starts to pass to the east. But don't count on it. If you didn't take your sensitive plants in yesterday and they survived last night, take them in tonight. If you don't this might be the last time you see them. 

Outside the Champlain Valley, a frost is almost guaranteed. There's no frost or freeze advisories in Vermont away from Lake Champlain because it's considered past the growing season. 

REST OF THE WEEK

A persistent pattern featuring a west to northwest wind flow will continue all week, keeping us mostly dry. This pattern will block any real moisture from coming our way. 

On the bright side, it's great for Vermont and the foliage season. Tourists will continue to swarm the state. Hopefully future will be plenty of colorful, dying leaves to keep them happy. 

On the negative side, the developing drought in much of Vermont could get worse.  Any rain we receive will be super light and brief. We need a drenching. We won't be getting anything like that anytime soon. 

Tomorrow

A warm front passing through in the morning will produce some clouds and maybe some sprinkles.  Sunshine should break through in the afternoon. It'll be warmer, with highs near 60. 

Thursday

A cold front will approach with another batch of scattered showers. Any rain that does arrive won't amount to much. It'll be mild ahead of the front with highs hopefully in the 60s. 

Friday-Sunday

Cool again, with highs in the 50s to near 60.  Some clouds might linger during parts of Friday but it will generally be sunny both days, At least as it looks  now. We'll also probably have some frosty and foggy early mornings, too.  

Sunday looks like it might be sunny, too. And warmer. Forecasts could change, but this looks like it will be a fantastic leaf peeping week. 

 

Rain Misses Most Of Vermont Again, Beautiful Day Today, Brief Cold Snap Early Week

A nice sunset after a dark, rainy day in St. Albans, 
Vermont on Friday. While far northwestern Vermont
got some decent rains, the showers largely
missed most of the rest of the state. 

 Yesterday's cold front only managed to bring substantial rain to far northwestern Vermont. 

My unofficial rain gauge up in St. Albans caught a very nice 1.02 inches of rain. Burlington had a respectable 0.49. But everywhere else - pfft.  

We knew southeastern Vermont would miss out, but central parts of the state did, too. Montpelier managed to receive just 0.16 inches. St. Johnsbury and Rutland had less than a tenth of an inch.

Very little rain is in the cards for the next week. Most of us need the rain, but we're still going to have to wait awhile for it. 

On the bright side, the rest of today will be, well, bright. A perfect fall day, really. Head out to leaf peep, but stay off the traditional tourist roads - they'll be jammed for sure. 

Highs should reach within either side of 60 degrees. The cool air will prompt frost in some areas tonight, but I think the Champlain Valley is mostly safe. For now. That'll change soon. More on that in a bit. 

TOMORROW

Another nice one. Patchy fog and frost early in the day, as is traditional in Vermont for early October.  We might have some clouds come in during the afternoon, but overall it will be pleasant, with highs in the 60s. 

MONDAY

Here's where things take a cold turn. A cold front will come through in the morning. It won't have much moisture to work with, but it will be a very dynamic system which could be enough to set off some light showers. 

But the real news is the blast of cold air coming in. Depending on when the cold front actually comes through, at least part of the day will prove to be a windy, cold day. You're going to want to dig some of your warmer clothes out from the back of the closet. This will be no means be record-setting, but it will be our first minimal hint of winter. 

The timing of the front will determine when it gets cold on Monday. Early guesses are that temperatures will fall through the 50s in the afternoon. 

By evening, temperatures will be crashing, northwest winds could gust to 30 mph. Home heaters and wood stoves will go on for the first time this autumn. The last vestiges of the cold front's moisture could throw a few snowflakes onto the mountain summits, or coat the stunted trees atop those mountains with a bit of rime ice. 

Monday will be a very good day to put on your warm coat and do an emergency frost harvest in your garden. For most places, except right near Lake Champlain, will very likely see the growing season decidedly end. Your garden will be a wilted mess by either Tuesday or Wednesday morning.

TUESDAY

Winds will continue to blow Monday night. The winds will prevent frost, but a lot of places will get below freezing, so that would kill remaining garden plants. 

During the day, the wind will continue to blow, adding a wind chill to the air. But the sun will be out. Call it a chilly fall day. Highs will stay in the low 50s, give or take. 

Tuesday night will go below freezing everywhere except maybe right near Lake Champlain.  Colder spots will go well into the 20s. 

REST OF NEXT WEEK

A warming trend. Nothing wild. Just back up to near normal temperatures. We'll have at least some sun every day, and there's a good chance most if not all days Wednesday through Friday will be at least partly sunny, if not clear. 

The cold snap and wind Monday and Tuesday probably will have ended the foliage season up in the Northeast Kingdom, but the rest of the state should be dressed very nicely in fall colors. The good think about a lack of storms is that high winds and heavy rain won't be around to strip off the leaves before we get a good look at them.  

Vermont September Was Dry. Burlington Had Coolest September Since 2013, But Still Historically Warmish

Henry the weather dog, right, and his larger
friend, Cooper, left, together enjoy a very
pleasant day on September 14. The month
was cooler than recent Septembers, and
there were plenty of sunny, pleasantly
cool days like this one. 

If you look at the past 138 years Septembers in Burlington, this September was pretty middle of the road as far as temperatures go. 

Even with that, this September in Burlington was the coolest since 2013. Climate change has altered what we considered "normal."

 If this past month happened during the middle of the 20th century it would have been near average, maybe even a little warm side. 

The average temperature in Burlington was 61.2 degrees, or 1.5 degrees cooler than what is now considered "average.'

To give you an idea how much has changed since climate change really started causing havoc with the weather I give you this: Thirty years ago, the normal September average temperature in Burlington was 59.4 degrees. Which would have made this past September a warmer than typical month.

Elsewhere in Vermont, September, 2026 temperatures were close to "normal." The modern, warmer "normal."   Places like Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Rutland and Woodstock were all came in within a degree of this new normal.

September was a dry month in most places. Burlington was 1.68 inches below normal. The 1.99 inches of rain that did fall on Burlington made it the 26th driest record out of the past 138 years. 

Montpelier was almost as dry as Burlington, coming in at 1.25 inches on the light side.  Parts of southeastern Vermont had near normal precipitation, thanks in large part to a late month nor'easter.

The dry weather is continuing to worsen drought or near-drought conditions across Vermont. The latest weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, released yesterday, shows abnormally dry conditions expanded to include almost all of the northern two-thirds of Vermont. Last week. western parts of the state had adequate moisture. Now, most of the Champlain Valley is dry, too. 

At least actual drought hasn't really expanded. At least for now. Like last week, moderate drought encompasses about a quarter of the state, in the Northeast Kingdom. 

On the bright side, the dry weather gave us plenty of absolutely gorgeous, comfortable September days featured blue skies and just the earliest hints of autumn in the air. 

LOOKING AHEAD

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is pretty non-committal with the outlook for October.  They give New England equal chances of above or below normal temperatures, and equal chances of above or below normal rainfall. 

Looking at NOAA's eight to 14 day outlook, taking us into mid-October gives us cool-ish to near normal temperatures, and near to perhaps edging toward below normal precipitation.  Which is too bad, we need at least a couple really soggy months to make Vermont adequately wet again. 

As always, we shall see!

  

Showers Dampening Vermont Ahead Of Classic Autumn Weekend

Early autumn calls starting to show under an overcast 
skies near Georgia, Vermont Thursday.  Clouds were
thicker than forecast yesterday. 

The weather forecasts seemed to be creaky lately.  

I'm not dissing National Weather Service meteorologists, they're working super hard. They're professional and dedicated 

But I think Trump-inspired cuts to the NWS might be interfering with picky details in the computer models. Not enough data is hitting those computer thingamajigs. 

Which might be creating more than picky mistakes in some weather forecasts.

I don't have any proof of this. And I know I'm oversimplifying a potential problem here.  Weather forecasts are almost never 100 percent accurate. Nature does what nature does. Nature still holds some secrets that meteorologists and other scientists haven't uncovered yet. 

But it seems that in the past week, forecast misses have been coming almost every day.   I hope somebody out there is researching the effects of Trump's cuts to the NWS and science in general to see that's all messing with weather forecasting

This rant is inspired by yesterday's weather. Broad brush, the forecast was correct. It was supposed to be relatively warm, relatively humid for this time of year, and that's what happened. 

But it was still cooler than forecast - near 70 instead of well up in the 70s.  Instead of variable cloudiness a thick, dark overcast hung over at least parts of Vermont for a good portion of the day, mostly in the afternoon. 

Now, what's going on with the weather over the next couple of days looks pretty straight-forward, so I have hopes that the forecasts for the next couple of days will turn out pretty accurate. Let's get into it: 

TODAY

Dawn broke today much like a sort of muggy July morning. Temperatures at 6 a.m. were in the mid to upper 60s in most spots. Montpelier was at 70 degrees. Rutland was at 71. 

Don't worry, it won't be a hot day, far from it. A cold front was making its way into Vermont early this  morning with a batch of showers. 

I think this would have been an almost dry cold frontal passage, if not for Hurricane Polo. That hurricane came ashore early this week a zillion miles away from us in Mexico's Baja California. 

But its remnants spread flooding rains into the Desert Southwest and Plains, and injected moisture along the front all the way up into our neck of the woods. 

Unfortunately for those of us who want and need a  lot of rain, this won't be the moment. The front is moving fast enough so that it won't have time to deposit much rain here. 

Most of us will receive a half inch or less. Storm totals will be maybe a quarter inch in many areas, give or take.Southern Vermont, especially the southeast, will probably get less than a tenth of an inch. 

The fast movement of the cold front will mean rain should pretty much be over in northwest Vermont by early afternoon, and mid to late afternoon elsewhere. 

Temperatures should hold steady or fall for the rest of the day as cooler air comes in and mostly cloudy skies linger after the bulk of the run has ended.

SATURDAY

We're still looking at a classic autumn day.  We'll have bright sunshine under blue skies. with highs within a few degrees either side of 60 degrees. Perfect conditions for leaf peeping, pumpkin shopping, fall festivals, you name it. 

Watch out for frost overnight. Carry in your sensitive plants that are still out there.  All my sensitive tropical-ish plants on my deck are coming in, mostly because of what's coming next week. More on that in a bit. 

SUNDAY

The day will start with patchy fog and frost. Here's a hint for leaf peepers and photographers: Get out there early, while it's still foggy. There's something magical about the sun breaking through the fog amid the multi-colored tree.s

Some clouds will come in during the day, but it will still be nice. Highs should get into the low 60s. Maybe mid-60s in the warmer valleys. 

MONDAY

A sharp cold front will come through, with maybe a few showers and more solid blast of chilly air. Highs should only reach the 50s as gusty northwest winds blowing through. The day could start out relatively mild, but it should turn out to be a cold day.  I wouldn't even be surprised if a few snow flurries grace the mountain peaks. 

Monday night will be cold, with a potentially widespread freeze, except right near Lake Champlain. 

TUESDAY

Another prematurely chilly day. Early guesses are the sun will be out, but highs should only be within a few degrees either side of 50 degrees. This isn't incredibly cold for early October -  we've had highs in the upper 30s to near 40 this time of year.  

But it will be a shock to the system. Especially since recent Octobers have been so warm. On the same dates that this cool snap will hit, it was in the 80s last year. 

Nor'easter A Shadow Of Its Former Self, Will Spread Light Rain Across Vermont One Last Day

Not much color in the trees in back of my house just
yet, but color is increasing across Vermont. Despite 
today's gloom, we'll have some very nice foliage
viewing weather starting later Tuesday. 

Our huge nor'easter this morning was a little south of Long Island this morning. But it's not the mighty, destructive storm it was over the weekend.  

Instead, its a shadow of its former self, now staggering northeast, through New England today as a weak, remnant low. 

The now-weak storm continues to fling showers east to west across Vermont and that state of affairs will continue today. 

So far, rainfall has been modest almost everywhere. Even in southeast Vermont, rainfall has been disappointingly light. 

Through early Sunday afternoon, even most of Windham County, in the southeast corner of Vermont had only received generally a half inch of rain. 

Only some towns closest to the Massachusetts and Massachusetts border had more than an inch. More rain did fall in southeast Vermont during the later afternoon and last night

Central Vermont did benefit from some persistent bands of rain.  Montpelier had nearly a half inch of rain through early this morning. Burlington  had 0.27 inches through 7 a.m.. Not much but decent. 

Far northwestern Vermont, as expected, missed out. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans had collected just 0.06 inches of rain. 

Let's get into the forecast details

TODAY

A somewhat raw, definitely cloudy day. Those showers will keep rotating through, east to west, backwards from the pattern we usually see. 

Much like the storm so far, southeast Vermont gets the most. Forecasters insist Windham County will get another half inch or more of rain. Central Vermont would get a quarter to a half inch. Northwest Vermont gets less than a quarter inch, with less than a tenth of an inch in the far northwest. 

Under the clouds and showers, temperatures will stay in the 55 to 65 degree range.

TUESDAY

We'll start the day with clouds and patchy fog. During the afternoon, some sun will break out, especially in the broader valleys. Highs should reach the 60s

WEDNESDAY

This will be the start of a gorgeous period if you want to go out leaf peeping.  The Northeast Kingdom will be at peak during the second half of this week and color is popping nicely elsewhere in the state. Under partly sunny skies highs should reach to within a few degrees either side of 70.

THURSDAY

October arrives with partly sunny skies with highs getting well into the 70s,  Chances are it will be the warmest day we've seen in the past couple weeks. . Burlington is expecting a high temperature of 77 degrees, compared to a record high for the date of 80 degrees.

This could well be the warmest day of this October, as the weather pattern is going to turn chillier. Thursday might also feel a bit humid as dew points reach the low 60s. Kind of sticky for this late in the season. 

FRIDAY

An early morning cold front will bring in more traditional crisp autumn air. The front will probably produce a few showers, but we'll be lacking the needed rain.  Skies should clear up, especially north. Highs should be in the seasonable 60s. 

SATURDAY

Still iffy at this point, but signs so far point toward more sunshine, especially if high pressure to our north and west holds firm. It will be another cool day with highs in the low 60s. At least that's the early guess

SUNDAY

It might rain a little. We're not sure yet, but if we do receive rain, it doesn't look like it'll be a soaker

BOTTOM LINE

We really, really need rain, especially in northern and central Vermont. On the other hand, we don't want any big storms that would wreck the foliage season. 

So, I guess it's OK that the weather pattern doesn't really favor big rain storms as we head into October and the peak of the foliage season. But we should hope from soaking rains in the second half of October and November .

A Cold, Damp Vermont Sunday, And A Cool Autumnal Week

Today's rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service in South Burlington. Though it
will be a rainy day, we ultimately won't get all that
much. The driest part of the state, the Northeast
Kingdom, will unfortunately see the least

 Saturday in Vermont felt like mid-October, with crisp air and bright blue skies, at least in  northern Vermont.

 High clouds were already starting to increase in southern Vermont. Those clouds were a sign of a very chilly Sunday coming in. 

The clouds were in place over Vermont as dawn broke today and rain was spreading in. Light rain should fall all day, though eastern Vermont should see mostly dry weather until mid to late morning. 

All this should hold daytime temperatures down in the 50s. As noted yesterday, this will be the coldest September 20 high temperatures since 1990, when the high was 53. 

The coldest high temperature on this date was 50 degrees in 1962  (The year 1962 was among the coldest on record in Vermont, as measured in Burlington). 

If it's going to rain, you want it to be beneficial, a real soaker. Unfortunately that won't be the case. Instead, it will mostly be annoying light rain, drizzle and sprinkles.  The rain might pick up at times to briefly feel drenching, but it won't be really make everything sopping wet. 

Only a thin top layer of the ground will get wet. There won't be enough rain to soak deeper. The Northeast Kingdom most needs the rain the most, and they'll get the least.

Some places in the NEK will receive less than a quarter inch of rain. Most of the state will see a modest quarter to a half inch. A few places in the far south could get a little more than a half inch

We're setting ourselves up for a cool week, too. Daytime highs won't be as cold as today, but we'll have to watch the nights for the risk of frost in a few spots. .

MONDAY

It will probably take its time clearing up during the day. Overall, most of us will have a mostly cloudy day, with more sun maybe in the Connecticut River valley. With cool north breezes blowing, it'll stay cool, with highs within a few degrees either side of 60.

 Some clearing Monday night will send temperatures down into the 35 to 42 degree range for most of us. Colder valleys could have some frost. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Massive, cool high pressure will set up to our north in Quebec, while low pressure is stuck in the Mid-Atlantic states or just offshore. This should keep us dry and chilly through the week. Some models take the Mid-Atlantic storm, or at least some of its moisture our way towards the end of the week. That's tossup right now, so we'll have to see how that plays out. 

Chances are, unfortunately, that we get little rain from that storm. But, we shall see!

Autumn Cool Weather To Make a VERY Noticeable Arrival In Vermont Over The Next Several Days

Photo of Hard'ack Hill in St Albans taken yesterday, a
beautiful, cool-ish September Day. If I told you I'd taken
this photo in July, you'd believe me, as the trees are 
still entirely green. That will start to change as we
begin a spell of notable cooler than normal 
weather that will last at least a week

This morning was another "coldest so far this season," and we should expect a lot of that type of morning as autumn advances.  

Burlington was at 41 degrees as of 7 a.m. today, the coldest it's been since May 12. Most of Vermont was in the mid and upper 30s at that hour. Morrisville was at 33, so they likely had a touch of frost. 

I've talked in past posts about that amazing streak of steady weather we've had. High temperatures have ranged only between 69 an 82 degrees since August 10.

 I don't think we've ever seen anything like that, lasting this long. That streak is about to end. It was definitely inevitable.  It ain't summer anymore. 

In early September, the normal temperature was slowly drifting down, reluctantly leaving the summer season. Now, average temperatures are cratering. At the start of the week, the average temperature for the date was 64. Today it's 61.5 degrees. By the last day of the month it'll be 56.5 degrees. 

It's getting cool fast. Despite sunshine, temperatures will only recover to the 60s today. Still nice, but cool. And then it gets worse.

SUNDAY

This will be a shock to the system. Clouds will have arrived and rain will be overspreading Vermont.  Forecasts have become a little more optimistic for statewide rain, instead of mostly just hitting the south. 

It won't be a super soaker, and it won't really ease the drought in the Northeast Kingdom. Especially since that area will get the least rain out of this, maybe a quarter inch. Otherwise, the northern half of Vermont is currently in for a quarter to a half inch, with southern Vermont seeing a half inch to an inch. 

While all this is going on, cold air will be feeding down from Quebec. That means high temperatures might only reach the 50s. The National Weather Service says it might well be the coldest daytime temperatures for this time of year since 1990. 

It this were late October or early November, this situation might have been an early seasons snowstorm. It's way too early for that. So not to worry, it'll just be a chilly rain. 

Today will be a good day to dig out all the fleece and hats and warm pants out of the closet. Tomorrow will be a good day to stay inside and watch football or binge watch Netflix or something. 

MONDAY-FRIDAY

A chilly week is ahead.  The mountainsides in Vermont are still mostly green. But a long spell of cool weather that's starting today and lasting all week will really begin to change that. 

Next week is a fantastic recipe for setting the stage for a potentially beautiful fall foliate season. We'll have lots of sun, with cool temperatures. The colder valleys will likely have frost each morning, at least Monday through Wednesday, if not beyond. Highs should be in the 58 to 65 degree range, cool for this time of year. 

Meanwhile a very slow moving storm looks like it might form and intensify off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Early guesses are it will become the first nor'easter of the season.  The weather pattern is hard to predict. Will the cool high pressure system to our north keep the storm away from Vermont? Or will it spread clouds and a chilly rain our way toward the end of the week? As always, stay tuned! 

Repeated Rain Chances Keep Heading South Of Vermont

This is subject to change, but this is an guess as to how
much rain will fall between now and Saturday morning
As you can see northern areas largely miss out.
All the good soakers are going mostly to our south

 We could surely use more rain in Vermont. A series of weak, but very wet disturbance are about to turn much of the Northeast soggy. But the Green Mountain State looks like it will largely miss out. 

Southern Vermont might still eke out a decent wetting over the next several days. But unless there's an abrupt change in the forecast, northern Vermont will miss out. 

The first disturbance came in yesterday with ominous afternoon clouds in the north which amounted to......about three raindrops. 

It seems like days in advance, we think we're going to get a soaking, then it turns out not to be a big deal.Thi

Let's walk through the forecast;

TODAY

The warmest day of the week. Then gloom overhead should break up somewhat to become a variably cloudy day. Highs should get well into the 70s, with some banana belt warm valleys touching 80 degrees. One of summer's last gasps. 

THURSDAY

We're in a squeeze play between a front to the south that will have a little disturbance riding along it and a cold front coming in from the  north. 

This setup looks like it will create some rain in the south. But questions remain as to how far north this might get. Varying computer models disagree so we might have some surprises. For now. maybe a quarter to a third of an inch of rain might come down in southern Vermont. That would gradually taper off to a trace to a tenth of an inch north. 

Again, results may vary. 

We're into September now, so we're more likely to see just plain rain rather than scattered showers and thunderstorms. So, probably no thunder tomorrow. Highs should make it into the low and mid 70s for most of us so not bad. 

FRIDAY

We'll squeeze in a classic autumn day. We should have sunshine with highs in the 60s to near 70. A brisk northwest breeze will add a chilly bite to the air. Humidity will plummet, says the National Weather Service, setting us up for a chilly night with frost possible in colder places again

SATURDAY

Dawn Saturday is looking a little colder than the nippy one we experienced yesterday.  Just a couple degrees makes a big difference on whether you'll see frost or not. Only one or two isolated areas had frost yesterday. Saturday morning, this frost might hit a few more of the colder hollows of northern and central Vermont. 

I imagine some places might end up falling under a frost advisory. Stay tuned for updates.  The rest of the day should be more typical September. Highs in the 60s with maybe some increasing clouds. 

The next rainy system looks like it would arrive Saturday night and Sunday. Early indications are this one could, once again, go by to our south, but there's plenty of time for that forecast to change

Cool Autumnal Day In Vermont, Then Rapid Weather Changes, But No Huge Extremes

Thunderstorms visible west of St. Albans just after
sunset Sunday. At my house, we had only sprinkles,
but brief downpours hit just a mile to the north.

Changeable weather seems to be the story in Vermont lately.

Sunday was a great example. We started out with early morning rain. Then we had a delightfully sunny and warm day, especially in western Vermont. Then some downpours and thunder rumbled across far northern and southern Vermont in the evening.  

That changeable theme will continue the rest of the week. The switches in the weather might not be as rapid as on Sunday, but it still will be classic "If you don't like the weather in Vermont wait a minute, it will change. "

Let's get into it. 

TODAY

The cold front swept through overnight, and early this morning it was beginning to whoosh in cool, autumnal air. Dawn temperatures across Vermont were still mild, in the 50s to near 60. But gusty northwest winds won't allow readings to rise much, despite a lot of sunshine.

High temperatures for most of Vermont will get into the 60s as the northwest breezes continue.

It was still cloudy early this morning across much of northern Vermont, especially over and east of the Green Mountains. That will eventually clear up. The Northeast Kingdom won't get the sunshine until we get into this afternoon. That will keep high temperatures in some towns up there only in the 50s. 

The winds will die off later this afternoon and this evening. 

That sets us up for what will yet again become the coldest night of year so far. 

TUESDAY

We'll start the day with temperatures in the 38 to 45 degree range. Most of us, anyway. But the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom could see a frost early Tuesday morning. It'll be a little cooler than Saturday morning, so the cold spots that barely missed out on a frost could get one. 

A frost advisory is in effect for far northern New Hampshire. So far, there's not advisory for any part of Vermont, because the frost isn't expected to be widespread. It's possible an advisory might be issued for the NEK and Adirondacks later today.

South winds will increase, just as they did on Saturday. So the cold morning will quickly transition to a fairly mild afternoon with highs reaching to within a few degrees either side of 70. Clouds will increase, too, but we're not in for any real rain. Maybe some isolated light showers Tuesday night. 

WEDNESDAY

A warmer day. Cloud and isolated showers should break up in the afternoon for sunshine. Highs should get into the 70s to possibly near 80. 

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

The weather is going to quickly switch back and forth late in the week and the weekend. A fast west to east to air flow will fling weather disturbances and bright, sunny high pressure systems. That means we'll go back and forth between showers and sunshine. 

It's so hard to know exactly when the showers will hit and when the sunshine will prevail. It's also hard to say how much rain we'll get with each little disturbance. 

Early guesses are showers will come through Thursday, with sunshine Friday and more showers on Saturday and maybe Sunday.  But that could shift as updates come in.

Frustrating for sure if you have late week plans, but that's the trouble with early autumn. But at least we have no extreme weather coming up. 

No extreme heat, no extreme growing season-ending cold, no fading hurricanes flooding our streams, no wind storms, no severe thunderstorms. We get to enjoy the tranquility of September 

September 11 Weather Was Eerily Similar To 25 Years Ago; Coolest Morning This Fall, Heavy Rain To Miss Vermont

On September 11, 2001 Hurricane Erin was moving northward
 500 miles off the East Coast. Had a cold front arrived a 
day later, the hurricane might have hit the East Coast.
And if it did, would it have prevented the terrorist 
attack?  We can only guess. 

The weather on Saturday, September 11, 2026 was eerily similar to that of that tragic day 25 years ago. 

It was gorgeous, sunny, a bit breezy with some of the first hints of autumn coolness in the air. 

I don't mean to trivialize that horrible day a quarter century ago, and please don't take it that way. But although the weather yesterday was almost exactly the same  as September 11, 2001, the weather set up was very different than it was 25 years ago. 

And the weather situation that terrible day brings up some big what ifs.

Let me explain: 

On September 10, 2001 a cold front swept through the northeastern United States. It caused some heavy thunderstorms in New York City.  Artist Monika Bravo took photos of the dramatic skies through windows on the 92nd floor.  These were just about the last photos of a view from inside the iconic twin towers.

That cold front helped shove Hurricane Erin away from the East Coast. It was about 500 miles offshore during the September 11 attacks.  Hurricanes moving northward off the East Coast feature sinking air outside the western flank of the storms. Sinking air causes clear skies. Which is the main reason why New York City had such clear skies that September day. 

It all makes you wonder what would have happened if that cold front came a day later.  If the cold front was late, Hurricane Erin might have gone up the East Coast instead. A New York City hurricane would have been bad, but not nearly as bad as the terrorist attack.  

Would the hurricane have postponed the attack?  Long enough for law enforcement to get wind of the plot and stop it?  We'll never know. 

TODAY

The clear skies here in Vermont and in New York City yesterday had nothing to do with hurricanes. It was just a cool, clear high pressure system moving into the Northeast. 

That brisk high pressure system brought Vermont the coolest air of the season so far. It got down to at least 47 degrees in Burlington early today, ending a 98-day streak with temperatures continuously above 50 degrees. I haven't done a complete review, but it appears to be the second longest such streak on record. The only longer streak I could immediately find was 106 days in 2023

Elsewhere in Vermont, most places had low temperatures this morning in the low 40s. Lyndonville was down to 38 degrees. Perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York, got down to 31 degrees. That makes me think that the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom might have had a light frost. Tis the season.

The cold high pressure is moving off to the east now. That'll set up some south winds. Combined with sunshine, that should boost this afternoon's temperatures well into the 70s. Another gorgeous September day.

SUNDAY

Vermont still needs a nice, soaking rain. And it's going to rain Sunday into Monday. But most of us won't have a soaker. 

A small, wet storm is prompting flood alerts in the Mid-Atlantic states today. That wet system will dump heavy rain around New York City and southern New England tonight and early Sunday. The three southern New England states look like they'll get at least an inch or two of rain. 

This will brush far southern Vermont. Places like Bennington and Brattleboro could get at least a half inch of rain out of this. That early morning rain could reach as far as the Canadian border, but up there, it will hardly amount to anything at all. Maybe a tenth of an inch of rain if they're lucky. 

Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching from the west with its own batch of showers and thunderstorms. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has pretty much all of Vermont in a marginal risk of severe storms. 

Those storms depend on whether skies manage to partly clear in the late morning and afternoon. If it does clear up, a few storms could get a bit strong. If it stays cloudy, it'll just be showers with maybe a rumble of thunder.

Whatever happens, it'll be pretty warm, with highs well into the 70s to near 80s. The showers will continue into Sunday evening. 

Though rainfall will be variable, with maybe a few spots getting a good soaking. But most of us should receive less than a half inch of rain. Many of us should only see a quarter inch of rain.  It's still not too late for the forecast to change, so we'll see.

MONDAY

Another big, brisk high pressure system, almost a carbon copy of Saturdays, will blow in on Monday.  It'll be a sunny, cool, breezy day.  It'll stay  under 70 degrees everywhere except maybe the lower Connecticut River valley. 

TUESDAY

It'll start quite cool, even a little cooler than it was this morning. I wouldn't be surprised if the coldest hollows have some frost, but most of us shouldn't worry, as lows for most of Vermont will range from 38 to 45 degrees. The usual patchy fog will sock in the river valleys. 

The afternoon will warm up into the low 70s.

WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND

We're still looking at the fast air flow across the northern United States. So the forecast gets difficult, as timing fronts and high pressure systems is tricky.  The first front, Tuesday night, looks like something of a nothing burger, with light showers at most. Beyond that, it's a roll of the dice. 

Changeable Vermont Weather Coming Up But Questions On HOW It Will Change

Henry the Weather Dog sploots down
in the shade, resting for a bit while
playing at the dog park yesterday. Henry
expects more sunshine but cooler
weather on his trip to the park today.

We're starting out or Friday with mostly clear skies, except for some lingering clouds near the Canadian border.  

Those clouds should break up a little bit as we go through the day. The blue skies will be dotted by a few pretty clouds much of their day. 

September usually brings big bubbles of high pressure drifting by. Those feature spells of bright, sunny, cool weather, interspersed with cloudy periods. Those are the cold fronts that separate the big bubbles of high pressure.

The problem is teasing out the timing of everything, and that's going to be the problem this week. The cool high pressure systems from Canada will compete with attempts by humid, warmer air making attempts to rain on us. 

Let's parse it out.

TODAY

The easy part of the forecast.  We'll have a gorgeous day. Mostly sunny skies and highs within a few degrees either side of 70. Cool breezes in northern Vermont will perhaps make you want to reach for the fleece jacket or hoodie, if you spend time in the shade.

SATURDAY

Very frequently now, we'll have new "coldest mornings of the year so far."  We have a shot at that around dawn tomorrow. We'll start with temperatures in the 40s, with plenty of low and mid 40s away from Lake Champlain.  A few of the coldest spots in the Northeast Kingdom will probably get into the upper 30s. 

Places near Lake Champlain will probably stay near 50. Dense fog will lace the river valleys. 

During the day, south winds will pick up, boosting temperatures well into the 70s. The winds could get a little gusty on and near Lake Champlain, so it might be a little tricky for boats on the lake. 

In southern Vermont, clouds will begin to increase as a weak but wet storm moves up the Eastern Seaboard. 

SUNDAY

It looks like the weak storm with its relatively heavy rain will pass south of Vermont, passing through southern New England. Clouds will cover Vermont. Meanwhile, a cold front will be coming at us from the west. 

Rain will overspread southern Vermont Saturday night and Sunday morning. There could be a half inch or more of rain in Bennington and Windham counties. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe storms in much of Vermont, suggesting there could be isolated instances of damaging winds. However, with all the clouds around, it's still doubtful we'll see any real thunderstorms. 

The cold front is most likely to produce rain in northern Vermont. In the end, northern and southern Vermont should get at least a decent wetting, and central Vermont might slip through between the two areas of rain and get little. 

This is iffy, so expect changes in the forecast. Bottom line: Not a really nice day, but how that will play out still has question marks. 

MONDAY

Another big bubble of high pressure looks like it will come in with mostly clear, cool weather. Monday will hopefully be a carbon copy of Saturday. We shall see.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND

We'll be near the battleground between those cool, big high pressure systems from Canada, and the lingering hot, humid weather in the southern half of the U.S.  That torrid summer weather is really hanging tough, odd for September, but we should see little if any of it. 

Instead, we'll be prone to periods of rain as weather disturbances ride along the border between the cool autumn air to the north and the hot, humid air to the south. 

I'm not sure, but chances are much of the rain could pass to our south. But, if we get lucky, we could also see at least one soaking rain, which would be nice. No promises there, though 

It's possible the humid air could sneak in briefly, but if it does, it won't last long.  Updates to next week's forecasts will seem constant, and we might not know exactly what kind of weather we'll have until the day before the weather actually hits. 

Another Sign Of Autumn This Morning, Then Quick Blip Of Humidity, Rain

Henry the Weather Dog at the dog park in
St. Albans, Yesterday. The sun was out at
the moment this photo was taken, but
under clouds and with gusty north winds
it actually felt chilly at times. Autumn
is definitely showing itself. 

For the first time since maybe early June, I felt chilly for awhile Sunday afternoon.   

The highlight of the day for Henry the Weather Dog is a trip to the dog park here in St. Albans. I brought him there in my usual summer uniform: Shorts, a t-shirt, sneakers. 

It was 70 degrees out at best. Warm enough for that outfit. But the sun occasionally disappeared behind large, poofy clouds, so that cooled the air occasionally.  The wind also blows hard at the dog park, as it's funneled between Hard'ack Hill to the west and French Hill to the east. 

The result: I felt chilly. 

I'm not whining. It's not as if I was dying of hypothermia. Still, I took my goosebumps as a sign we are sinking deeper into autumn. 

And it was cool this morning too. It was 50 degrees in Banana-Belt Burlington this morning. It got down to 41 in Bennington and 42 in Morrisville and Lyndonville. 

The arrival of autumn comes in waves, the cool air interspersed with periods of warmer, even summery weather. So the vaguely nippy air we just had will relax into warmth. Let's get into the details.

TODAY

Temperatures have started rocketing upward and will peak well into the 70s this afternoon.  Maybe close to 80 in the warmest valleys. Henry's trip to the dog park today will not result in any shivers today. Sunshine will reign supreme. Get outside and enjoy!

TUESDAY

An extremely weak cold front should drift down from Quebec early in the morning. It'll probably bring a band of clouds. Maybe even a widely scattered light shower or sprinkle in the north. But the sun should partially make an appearance in the afternoon. It'll be a couple degrees cooler than today, but still in the 70s

WEDNESDAY

The next weather system will start to come at us from the west. South winds will pick up, and those south winds will pick up some humidity from the Gulf of Mexico and throw it at us. It'll start to feel sticky, and we'll have a rising chance of showers in the afternoon. 

A brief spell of very humid air will help blossom a period of rain, maybe briefly heavy overnight Wednesday/Thursday. There could even be a downpour or two. But the rain will rocket through here so fast Wednesday night it won't have a chance to give us all that much. 

We might see over a half inch of rain in northern Vermont, maybe a quarter to a half in central Vermont and the Champlain Valley, and less than a quarter inch far southeast. Of course, there might be adjustments to the forecast.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY

September in Vermont is famous for its spells of delightful weather. Sunshine, low humidity. With few springtime gnats or mosquitoes buzzing around and no mud underfoot. 

We might have a couple lingering showers Thursday, especially in the morning. Humidity will probably linger in the morning, too, but the air should start to feel more fresh in the afternoon. It'll be warm, as it could get up to 80 degrees or so. Not near any records by any stretch of the imagination, but a little warm for September. 

As it looks now, Friday and Saturday look delightful. Sunshine, maybe a few puffy afternoon clouds, with afternoon highs in the 70s. Both mornings will feature dense fog in the river valleys. That's also classic September weather. 

It's possible some light showers come back into the picture later on Sunday, but we might well squeak out another nice day.  

Another Day, More Severe Storms In Vermont. Surprise Thunderstorms Possible - It Continues

A pretty shower cloud billows up looking northeast  from 
St. Albans, Vermont Thursday afternoon. While most of
the day's scattered showers and storms were harmless.
a couple brought damaging winds and hail to a few
spots in the state. 

As always, it seems lately, somebody in Vermont had a rough weather day. 

We have a few new severe storm reports from yesterday, as our pattern of rough weather continues. 

Most of us actually had a pretty nice day, with partly sunny skies and billowing clouds that made the day perfect for sky watching.

But there were a few trouble spots, the most notable being in western Rutland County. 

A severe storm there deposited ping pong ball sized hailstones on Fair Haven, and took down numerous trees along a section of Route 30 in Castleton. Elsewhere, in far northern Vermont, a storm took down at least one tree in North Troy.

So, it was the third day in a row with damaging storms in Vermont. 

TODAY

We've spend the past couple of days saying how glorious the weather will be today, but surprise! It turns out a couple more thunderstorms will hit parts of the state today. They probably won't be severe, but with our track record recently, you'd never know.

Meteorologists have known for days that a small weather disturbance would pass through Vermont today. A few days ago, that forecast suggested showers today. But in the past couple of days, it looked like a dry atmosphere today would support nothing more than some puffy clouds to decorate the skies.

Instead, the disturbance now looks like it will trigger some showers and maybe a couple of thunderstorms in a stripe heading southeastward from the central Adirondacks, through west central and southern Vermont  and into southern New England. 

At this point, it doesn't look like the storms will be severe, since the disturbance is weak and there's not a lot of heat and humidity to work with.  But I wouldn't rule out some gusty winds with one or two storms. 

Other than that, the day should be partly sunny/partly cloudy with highs in the 70s. With comfortable humidity as a bonus.

SATURDAY

Finally! A day without a risk that we'd have to beat a hasty retreat indoors to escape a sudden rainstorm.  We can expect sunshine, low humidity and highs in the 70s. Maybe close to 80 in the warmest spots in the Lower Connecticut River Valley.

Once again, we'll have a Saturday endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. We've been blessed with quite a few nice Saturdays this summer, in contrast to our general Green Mountain State rule that weekends cause rain.

SUNDAY

Speaking of rain, we think some will arrive Sunday, but we might still eke out a decent day. At least part of it. 

Those famous computer models have settled on a storm system coming into New England, probably beginning  later Sunday, but there's still questions about how much rain Vermont will get and whether those damn thunderstorms will start hassling us again. 

As it stands now, it looks like clouds will thicken and lower as we go through the day, with some showers arriving, maybe by late afternoon. Again, as it looks now, Sunday night looks rainy. We have an OK shot at having a statewide, soaking rain, which is great news for those parts of the state that missed out on the downpours from all those hit and miss thunderstorms we've had lately. 

Especially if this thing goes a little further north than expected, enough instability and deep moisture could reach Vermont to also touch off some overnight thunderstorms, just to make things noisy. Iffy this point, but we shall see.

MONDAY/TUESDAY

Maybe yet more showers and thunderstorms Monday as a cold front passes through. An early guess at next Tuesday suggests sunny and seasonable mid-August weather

Yes, It Was Autumnal In Vermont But July Cool Spells Aren't That Cool Anymore. Now Back To Regularly Scheduled Summer

Autumn-like clouds overhead and strong winds tilt a tree
in St. Albans yesterday on an autumn-like day. However,
summer cool spells are not as cold as they once were,
thanks largely to climate change. 

Yesterday and last night in Vermont sort of had the feel of early autumn. 

Broken clouds streaked across the sky, but in the afternoon and evening, they were those flat windswept type, not the puffy, rising, almost vertical clouds that are more common in summer. 

The winds for the past few days were gusty and cool, and much stronger than you'd expect in the summer. They gusts were more like what you might see toward November. 

By dawn today, readings were down to the upper 40s and low 50s. The summit of Mount Mansfield was at 39 degrees.

It looks like Burlington made it down to 53 degrees this morning, which will likely be the coolest night this month. 

But in yet another sign of climate change, probably mixed with urban development creating a heat island effect, that 53 low this morning is higher than what the July low routinely reached in the past.

.July temperatures in Burlington reached the 40s most years. But Burlington hasn't had a July low under 50 degrees since 2015. In the 80 years ending in 1990, only 17 years had July lows of 50 or above. In the 36 years since 1990,  all but 10 Julys had a months low of 50 degrees or more.  

To give you an idea how cool some Julys used to be, we can harken back to 1962, which, to be fair, was the chilliest July on record,. That July, eleven mornings started under 50 degrees. One of those mornings bottomed out at 39 degrees, which is still Burlington's coldest July temperature on record. It was 29 degrees in West Burke, Vermont that morning. 

Nothing like that is coming anytime soon, of course. No covering up those tomato plants for quite awhile yet. And, a warming trend is starting. Here's what's coming up over the next few days. 

TODAY

A nice one, with sunshine, low humidity and a light breeze. A strong but dying storm far up in Quebec was throwing clouds into far northern Vermont this morning, but those should mostly clear out. The sky, especially over the mountains, will probably have some puffy clouds building up this afternoon, but they won't be big enough to produce any raindrops.

SATURDAY

Another winner! The day will start off cool with temperatures in the 50s to near 60 at dawn, but rocket into the 80s by afternoon. It'll be another weekend day fully endorsed by the Vermont Department of Tourism and Marketing. 

SUNDAY:

Actually kind of a hot one by afternoon. Highs should get well into the 80s with the warmer valleys getting up to around 88 or 89 degrees. It'll be your beach day, probably. Some clouds might arrive during the afternoon, but those clouds won't turn the sky overcast. The sun will likely more out than in. Any showers should hold off until Sunday night at the earliest. 

Humidity levels should stay pretty reasonable, too. 

NEXT WEEK

The first half of the week looks unsettled with risks of showers and storms Monday through Wednesday. It's still too soon to say how many showers and storms, so stay tuned!

Vermont Cool Spell Ends Long 80 Degree Spell; No Real Heat For Awhile

Midsummer flowers in St. Albans, Vermont this morning.
It's the peak of summer, but we're having an inverted
"January thaw."  That's a July cool spell that tells
us summer will eventually end. 

 We're in the midst of the summer version of the Vermont "January thaw."

Many years, often around the third week of January, we have a warm spell that tells us winter will eventually end. Not yet, it'll be awhile, but spring will come. 

Right now, we're in the July version of that  It happens during warmer summers, like this one has been so far. We get a cool spell in mid to late July.  It's an autumn-like sign that summer will eventually end. Not right away. There's plenty of summer left to go. But for now, there's hints of September. 

Saturday, the high temperature in Burlington reached only 72 degrees. That ended a streak of 21 consecutive days in which the temperature reached at least 80 degrees. The streak is the fourth longest 80 degree string on record in Burlington. 

We were supposed to get to 80 degrees or more yesterday, but a burst of warm, humid air had trouble making it as far as northern New England. That fact, and another burst of wildfire smoke, helped keep us cool.

The situation did rescue us from any severe weather. It all stayed well to our west and south. There's dozens of thunderstorm damage reports from western New York to North Carolina. 

Rainfall was mostly modest in Vermont, which is a bummer, since many of us could use the rain. 

REST OF TODAY

The cool weather continues today, though it is much nicer than it was Saturday.  The smoke is gone for now, and a pleasant northwest breeze is blowing. Today's the weekend day to enjoy. Our hints of autumn continuing. Highs will only top out in the 70s - gorgeous, but cool for the peak of summer. 

Tonight will probably be the coolest we've seen since the second week of June. That's not saying much. Most of us we'll get into the low and mid 50s, with some 40s in the colder hollows. Nothing unusual for July. 

THIS WEEK

Tomorrow will be another nice day, though some clouds will come in this afternoon. Highs will be seasonable, topping out within a few degrees either side of 80 degrees. 

The next storm system, coming through Tuesday through Wednesday, but it looks pretty tame. More tame that I thought a few days ago. Unless there's a major change in the outlook, it appears severe weather will stay well to Vermont's south and west.

Some earlier forecasts suggested the storm could slow down or stall near us, which would put us at risk for heavy rain or even flooding. Now, that idea looks highly doubtful. The warm fronts and cold fronts and troughs and lines of showers should wander through, not in a hurry, but not dawdling either. 

That means we might, if we're lucky, receive a decent amount of rain. 

It'll temporarily turn more humid during the rainy spell, but not wildly so. And it will turn drier again later in the week. Wildfire smoke is still lurking around central North America, but it's thinning somewhat. Rain has temporarily cooled the big Ontario wildfires a bit. Still, it might get a little smoky again midweek. 

After that, we don't see any signs of new heat waves for at least 10 days. It'll be warm enough, but not intensely so. Most of the heat will stay in the western and central United States.

But then there's August. Who knows whether we'll have more heat waves them. Stay tuned! 

Likely Woodstock, Vermont Tornado To Be Investigated Today, More Inclement, But Not Violent Weather Due

Trees ripped apart on a Woodstock, Vermont hillside
after a likely tornado hit on Thursday. 
Photo from WCAX via Facebook

 Thanks to the fact that everyone has a camera and local TV stations are pretty aggressive when it comes to covering rare, violent weather in Vermont, we're now pretty confident that whatever hit Woodstock, Vermont yesterday was probably a tornado. 

Drone video from Henry's Weather Service shows trees snapped off halfway up, and many other trees felled in varying directions, which are telltale signs of a tornado. 

Video obtained from Tiffany LaRocque taken from inside Mountain Creamery in Woodstock shows intense winds and rain on the edge of the tornado. Trees were falling and the parking lot was full of vehicles as people traveling along Route 4 took refuge there as driving conditions became impossible. 

About 100 people were affected by the probably tornado on the western side of town, WPTZ reports. Thankfully, we have no reports of injuries, which is pleasantly surprising, given how much traffic there usually is on Route 4 where the probably tornado crossed. 

The tornado missed the historic central village of Woodstock, which is a world-renowned tourist hub. Initial reports indicate only minor tree damage in the village center. 

Reports are that National Weather Service meteorologists from South Burlington will head to Woodstock, probably today, to confirm whether this was a tornado.  If that analysis happens, we'll learn how strong the tornado was and how long and wide the path was.

Judging from the drone video, the path of the tornado looked a little longer than most Vermont tornadoes. Twisters in the Green Mountain State tend to touch down and lift almost immediately. 

I'm not sure on the strength of the tornado, but judging from photos and that drone video, I'd say it was an EF-1, which would mean winds of 86 to 110 mph. 

Once the National Weather Service offers a report on the Woodstock storm, I'll write up a new post with the updates.

Heading east from Woodstock, there was additional severe damage. In Quechee, Vermont, a row of large willow trees on a golf course fell. They all went down in the same direction, suggesting straight line wind damage. 

There was also extensive damage in Hartford, Vermont, where a lot of trees fell. 

Nearly 4,000 Vermont homes and businesses were still without power this morning, mostly in southeastern Vermont. Londonderry had 1,100 of those outages, suggesting something nasty rolled through that town yesterday. 

This morning, other trouble spots popped up in northern Vermont, near the Canadian border. The Barton River at Coventry and the Missisquoi river near North Troy were at minor flood stage. Heavy rains yesterday fell atop soils soaked by very heavy rains that hit up there on Sunday. 

We had reports of a lot of street flooding Thursday in Newport and Middlebury. Probably other towns experienced that, too. 

Rainfall was quite heavy in many spots. Burlington had 1.11 inches of rain. My unofficial rain gauge in St. Albans collected 1.54 inches. A full report on how much rain fell in specific towns will become available later this morning. 

WHAT'S AHEAD?

Thankfully, we're done with the violent weather at least for awhile, but conditions will be unsettled and wet at times. Northern Vermont in particular is in for some showery weather this weekend. 

The out of season, strong low pressure system that gave Vermont the rough weather yesterday is meandering through Quebec. It's rotating little disturbances through here and will continue to do so through the weekend. 

That means frequent bursts of rain,  especially north. Total rainfall through Sunday night will be near an inch over the northern Green Mountains. In most valley towns north of Route 2,  a half to three quarters of an inch will come down between now and Monday morning.   

The rainfall will taper to a quarter inch in central Vermont and less than a tenth of an inch in far southeast Vermont. A  few garden variety thunderstorms and downpours will probably mix in, so a few towns will get more rain than the rest of Vermont as a result. 

A few daily details: 

Today

Mostly cloudy and breezy with west to southwest winds gusting to 25 or 20 mph. Most of the afternoon showers and garden variety thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be north of Route 2, but some will drift into central Vermont by very late afternoon or the first half of tonight. A few storms might have briefly heavy downpours, but not enough to cause any flooding or anything like that. 

Highs should reach the low and mid 70s in most valleys

Saturday

Probably the worst day of the bunch. Northern areas will see very little sun and frequent showers. Southern valleys will see some sun, but also a risk of a shower. It will be quite cool for the season with highs in the 60s north, with low to mid 70s southern valley floors. 

Hikers should be aware that summits will be wet and cold tomorrow with wind chills in the 40s. If you insist on hiking, it won't be a summertime activity. Dress accordingly. 

Sunday

More showers and garden variety thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Highs in the low 70s, give or take. 

 

A Small Storm Chance Today Followed By Weird, Stormy Vermont Day Tomorrow

Much like this past Sunday, much of the Northeast
including Vermont is in a level two out of five risk
for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (yellow
shading). Whether we get severe storms 
tomorrow depends on whether building storms
can grab high speed air screaming overhead.

 Yesterday was another gorgeous day in Vermont, although a couple late afternoon and evening showers and storms in the Adirondacks. 

Now, we're gearing up for another weird storm in Vermont. It's the "winter storm" I talked about yesterday. More on that  mess in a minute, but let's just look at today's forecast first. Just so we can relax a bit

TODAY

It'll generally be a not bad day. It started off gorgeous with blue skies and in some areas, a nice breeze.

The clouds will tend to increase today, and a couple showers or thunderstorms might pop up this afternoon. Many of us will stay dry, but others will have one or two wet periods. Not a washout at all. Highs should flirt with 80 degrees today. 

THURSDAY 

Kind of a complicated mess of a day with gusty winds, bursts of rain and the risk of severe thunderstorms. 

Our winter-like storm looks like it will set off a nasty tornado and severe thunderstorm outbreak across Illinois and Indiana today. By tomorrow morning, the storm should be somewhere in the general vicinity of Ottawa. 

As I mentioned yesterday, storm systems, if they exist at all in the summer, are almost always very weak. This will be a strong one, the kind of storm you see pretty often in the winter, when storms tend to be a lot more energetic 

In general, the lower the air pressure, the stronger the storm. This one looks like it might have a barometric pressure below 990 millibars, which is near record territory for June. Since the storm will be passing so close to Vermont, we might  have barometer readings that might be close to record lows.

But that's not what we have to worry about. 

The problem with this storm will be wind. We'll have just the regular strong winds that a strong low pressure system stirs up, and the possibility of even more damaging winds with a few strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms. 

Wind

In the summer, since storm systems are weak, we almost never had strong, gusty winds, except of course in thunderstorms. And those thunderstorm winds only cover a small fraction of the state when they do occur.

With our strong storm, it will be windy almost everywhere in Vermont tomorrow. Gusts will reach 35 to 40 mph at times across most of the state, with locally higher winds of up to 45 or 50 mph in a couple spots.  

Those kinds of gusts hit all the time in the winter when the trees are leafless. But now, the trees are heavy with leaves. Each leaf will act like a little sail tugging at trees as the winds blow through. That means a few trees and branches might give up the ghost and crash to the ground. 

Some of those trees will take down power lines. This won't be an anywhere near a blackout situation, but a few scattered power outages seem possible.  I'd stay off of Lake Champlain, too. The broad lake should have at least two to four foot waves, which isn't great for small boats. 

Thunderstorms

A warm front that's part of the storm will throw a burst of moderate to heavy rain at us for a few hours in the morning. There might be a rumble of thunder or two with this, but they won't be severe. It'll just be sort of a stormy, unpleasant morning. 

Then, in the afternoon, the warm front will be in Quebec and the storm's cold front will be to our west, heading our way.

In this zone, we are at risk of severe storms.  But it's iffy. We indeed might see those severe storms. But there's a chance it could end up being like this past Sunday, where no severe storms really developed,

Like last Sunday, Vermont is in a slight risk zone, (alert level 2 out of 5) for severe storms tomorrow, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

There will be a lot of clouds around, and it won't get super warm tomorrow (highs in the mid 70s to near 80).  Those conditions would tend to dampen the risk of storms. 

But remember, our parent storm system in southern Canada is super intense for this time of year. Winds several thousand feet overhead will be screaming along. Storms that do develop could grab some of that high speed air and blast it down on us, leading to locally damaging gusts. 

Or, the winds aloft might be so strong that they tilt wannabe thunderstorms so they have trouble getting severe. We don't know yet. 

It's a maybe, maybe not proposition, so stay tuned and be prepared in case there are severe storms tomorrow. The storms will be moving very fast because of those strong upper level winds. So there might not be much warning for you if a severe storm develops. 

Do note that just because we didn't see severe storms last Sunday, we're not immune from such storms tomorrow. This is an entirely different weather setup that we had a few days ago, so you can't rely on last Sunday's weather maps for clues.  

Flooding

I'm not really that worried about flooding. Sure, rain might come down hard at times. But everything will be moving so fast that the downpours will zip on through before they can cause much trouble.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does have us in marginal risk zone (Level 1 out of 4) for flash flooding. That's because a few areas of Vermont have gotten really sodden from recent rains, so it might not take much to set off some high water. But if something like that does occur, it will be pretty isolated and scattered.

In general, we should expect a half inch to an inch of rain out of this storm, give or take

AFTER THE STORM

In the winter, storms like this often stalls or slows down way up north in Quebec or in the Canadian Maritime provinces, creating cold northwest winds, wind chills and snow showers. Those snow showers usually focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

None of that will happen, but it will be cool. And breezy. With showers. Rain showers, not snow showers, of course! Those showers could happen anywhere, but yes, they'll focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

The cool air won't be really established yet on Friday, so it'll get into the 70s. Best chance of shower is i the afternoon and evening. 

Saturday will be the cold, blustery post-"winter storm" day. Highs will only get into the 60s to around 70, and there will be quite a few showers around. Nothing heavy, but just enough to make the day exactly the opposite of the warm, bright sunny Saturday we had last weekend. 

Sunday will be somewhat better, but we'll still have a risk of light showers. 

Very often, after a winter storm passes just to our north in, say, January,  a follow up storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. That gives Vermont a nice snowstorm, especially south. 

Again, no snow this time, it's a zillion times too warm. But Monday could turn out cool and rainy as a storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. It's still too soon to know how much rain, but the best chances are across southern Vermont. 

This "winter weather pattern" won't last all summer, of course. Temperatures should warm up to more seasonal levels later next week, with no cold season type storms in sight. 

Another Vermont Break: Severe Storms, Flooding Mostly Didn't Materialize. So, What's Next?N

Stormy, volatile looks skies over St. Albans, Vermont
last evening, but severe weather and flash flooding
mostly did not materialize in the Green Mountain
State on Sunday, despite forecasts to the contrary

Yesterday, we went through our second threat of severe, damaging weather in Vermont within three days, and once again, we largely escaped trouble.  

Maybe I feel a little like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, but not really. First of all, we should be grateful there wasn't much in the way of damaging storms or high water. Secondly, weather almost always surprises, despite our nation's supposed meteorological prowess. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

 I also think National Weather Service forecasting has deteriorated a little thanks to Trump's DOGE cuts to this critically important agency, but I'm still waiting on the studies that prove it. This is not a criticism of the meteorologists working at the NWS. It's a criticism of the government that's running it. 

Sometimes the weather ends up worse than expected, sometimes it's better.  Rejoice in the fact that it was better this time. 

There were a couple trouble spots last night. The National Weather Service had to issue a flash flood warning for the Green Mountains roughly between Rutland and White River Junction. Numerous small roads off of Route 4 near Killington became impassable overnight due to washouts and flooding. Up to four inches of rain was reported in the area. 

A flood advisory was still in effect early this morning over in northern New Hampshire. 

The rain was substantial in northern Vermont, but definitely less than feared. I don't have much in the way of reports yet, but I'm sure forecasts of over an inch of rain near the Canadian border came true. At least in a few spots. But the localized three inch totals probably didn't happen

There were no severe thunderstorms Sunday in Vermont that I'm aware of. I think the skies were too cluttered with clouds and showers during the morning and afternoon to produce the storms. Temperatures across much of central and northern Vermont held in the low to mid 70s under the clouds, not the 80s that had been predicted.

That meant less energy and less instability for severe storms. Almost all the severe weather stayed clustered in the Pennsylvania and Ohio, and the Mid-Atlantic states. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Now that our Sunday storm is done, we can look forward to some decent weather for the next couple of days before the next system arrives later in the week.

We'll go with partly sunny skies after clouds clear out this morning.  Broader valleys will be sunniest this afternoon as a few instability clouds litter the blue skies over the Green Mountains. Highs will be i the 70s. Tomorrow will pretty much be a carbon copy to today. 

We'll start getting back into the clouds and shower risks on Wednesday, but the day won't be a washout. Highs will reach the 70s to around 80.

Thursday looks like an interesting day from a meteorological perspective, but - fingers crossed - I suspect Vermont might dodge more bullets. No promises yet, but so far, it looks OK. 

A pretty strong storm  for this time of  year- one that you usually see in the winter, not summer - should originate around Colorado or Wyoming tomorrow. It will race east to a spot somewhere near Minnesota or Wisconsin on Wednesday. Then it will continue blasting generally eastward, arriving in southeastern Ontario or southern Quebec Thursday. 

The storm seems almost guaranteed to bring a nasty swath of severe thunderstorms and maybe tornadoes in the Midwest Wednesday and Mid-Atlantic States Thursday. 

On this path, Vermont would be in the sweet spot. We'd be close enough to the storm center so that the severe storms wouldn't get quite this far north. The heaviest rain would fall in Quebec. And besides, whether you're in Quebec or Vermont, the storm will blast through so quickly that we wouldn't get enough rain to create much flooding. 

I do give a caveat, as there is a risk some severe storms could sneak into Vermont, especially the south, but so far, so good. 

The storm will probably give us a decent dousing of rain. And since it will be an unusually strong storm, gusty non-thunderstorm winds might bring down a few isolated trees, branches or power lines. 

This is all early guesses. I'll have more when we get closer to the event. 

We're falling into a cool, unsettled weather pattern that will probably last until near the end of the month. Such a pattern features somewhat below normal temperatures most days. It also features frequent chances of showers, but overall rainfall after Thursday shouldn't really be all that heavy. 

Cold Storm Departs. Much Weaker Cold Storm Arrives Today But Summer Is Around The Corner!

Yes, that was snow gleaming at the summit of Mount
Mansfield, Vermont Saturday after a cold storm blew through

That storm yesterday really left its mark on New England with mountain snows and wind and rain and chilly temperatures reminiscent of March in some places. 

Here in Vermont, the weather got nice, if chilly. The afternoon sky lit up blue, with patchy, cold-looking stratocumulus clouds. 

The tippy top of Mount Mansfield gleamed white with new snow. Yes, on May 30. Nice contrast between the green slopes just below the snow. 

The weather wasn't so nice in so nice in eastern New England. The storm evolved into a nor'easter,, with many communities in eastern Massachusetts never getting above 50 degrees and wind gusts exceeding 50 mph. Hull, Massachusetts reached 60 mph. 

Adding to the drama, a meteor exploded over Cape Cod Bay somewhere between Boston and Provincetown Saturday afternoon, creating a loud boom and some shaking

Back here in Vermont, rainfall was more generous than predicted. Most places north and east of Interstate 89 had more than an inch of rain. Many towns in that wet region has more than 1.5 inches of rain. The town of Morgan was drenched with .2.19 inches of rain. Westfield had 1.9 inches.  

More rain is in the forecast, but nothing like we saw Friday night and early Saturday. 

TODAY

Skies clouded up overnight, preventing temperatures from getting cold enough for a frost. The clouds are from the next batch of showers and cold air aloft diving down through Quebec toward us. 

Unlike in eastern New England, skies cleared during the
late morning to reveal a delightfully sunny, breezy, 
cool afternoon to enjoy the outdoors,

This one is much weaker than the small-sized but big powerhouse we dealt with Friday night. So we'll see much less rain.  

Most places will only see 0.1 to 0.2 inches of rain, so this is only a slight wetting compared to what we saw Friday night. 

A few places will get a little more, because there's a chance a thunderstorm or two could be embedded within the mess of showers heading our way. 

If some thunderstorms get going, a few might  have pea sized hail since the air high above us is so cold. 

As far as timing goes, we already had a few light showers going on north as of 9 a.m. There will be a rising chance of showers north, spreading south through the day. The greatest chances of getting wet will probably is between 4 and 8 p.m., but of course there's chances of rain before and after those hours. 

Since its a cold system, it'll be cool for the season again today with highs in the 60s.

REST OF THE WEEK

We will slowly emerge from this cool spell and welcome back early summer.  Some potential complications that would keep us chilly longer are starting to seem less and less likely. 

Monday will probably start off cloudy, but clear up as temperatures rise only into the 60s, with maybe a spot 70 in warmer valleys far south and upper 50s in hilly terrain north. That's still a little cool as we start off June, but it's nothing incredible. 

The rest of the week looks pretty sunny and really nice. Highs should be near 70 Tuesday, well into the 70s Wednesday and probably into the 80s by Thursday. 

Cold fronts coming along toward next weekend look like they'll lack the oomph of the ones we saw in May, So generally warm weather will get June off to a great start,