Saturday Morning Vermont Nor'easter Update: Wetter Forecast, Risk Of Minor Flooding Ticks Up

Latest rain forecast is heavier than yesterday's prediction,
at least across Vermont. Dark green areas will have
at least an inch of rain. Yellow depicts at least 1.5 inches
and orange at least two inches. New York State 
should have much less rain than in Vermont.

Our highly anticipated final day of May nor'easter was just moving  into Vermont as dawn broke today. 

As expected, we are in for a very wet Saturday. For those keeping track, this will be the 11th Vermont  Saturday in a row with at least some rain. 

This might well be the wettest of the bunch, though the storms of May 17 might still be the winners of the Saturday rain derby. 

The storm coming in is looking wetter, stronger and windier than we indicated in forecasts issued yesterday morning. 

The end result is a greater threat of flooding in Vermont than we thought before. Though any flooding later today and this evening would probably be fairly minor. Still it's worth taking seriously.

THE FLOOD RISK

The consensus is the store is going to head up through New Hampshire today.  The heaviest precipitation in a nor'easter usually falls just to the west and northwest of the center.  That track will tend to focus rain right over Vermont. 

Everyone in Vermont should see one to two inches of rain. A few places might get three inches. 

Flash Floods

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has
a slight risk of flash flooding in
Vermont today and tonight. That's a 
level two out of four risk levels. 

The heaviest rain looks like it will focus right along or near the Green Mountain chain the length of Vermont. Of course, that's where the steepest terrain is. Which makes runoff from heavy rain more problematic and flash flooding more likely. 

As such, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has increased the risk level for flooding from marginal to slight in Vermont. That means essentially that flooding would still be widely scattered and not widespread, but not as isolated as before. 

Most meteorologist don't expect super damaging flash floods. The storms of May 17 dumped torrential downpours over short periods of time, which is the best way to wash out roads and flood homes.

 That's why communities like White River Junction, Waitsfield, Warren and Killlington saw so much flood damage that day. 

We'll probably get about as much rain today as we did on May 17, but the rain will be spread out through mostly the entire day. It won't come down as hard as it did two Saturdays ago,  So it will be more difficult to get these great gushes of water roaring down hillsides.

But, the rain might come down heavily enough at times to mess with culverts, wash out steep driveways and erode the edges of some hilly gravel roads.   

River Flooding

Widespread flooding along Vermont's larger rivers isn't expected, but some waterways should come close to flood stage. 

As of this morning, none of Vermont's  rivers are forecast to actually hit flood stage, though in the end I wouldn't even be surprised if a few did achieve minor flood stage. So nothing devastating there. Places like downtown Montpelier, Johnson, Barre and Cambridge seem safe. But low lying roads could go under water again.

Some examples:

The Otter Creek at Center Rutland is forecast to peak at 7.2 feet, just under minor flood stage by Sunday morning.  The Mad River at Moretown, often a flood trouble spot, is forecast to peak at 5.3 feet, well short of the nine foot flood stage. I think that forecast is underdone, though the river will probably still remain below flood stage.

The Winooski River looks safe from flooding at this point, too. The Lamoille and Missisquoi are also scheduled to stay below flood stage. Nevertheless, the National Weather Service is still keeping a close eye on all these rivers, in the off chance there's an unpleasant surprise or two. 

This definitely won't be another Great Flood of 2023 or 2024 though, so you can relax about that. 

STRONG STORM

Storms, even nor'easters tend to be much weaker in the warm season than in the winter. Nor'easters thrive on sharp temperature contrasts, which makes them those windbags with lots of rain or snow.

There really isn't an enormous temperature contrast feeding the storm but there is more than usual for a May system.  Plus there's been a lot of energy in the atmosphere for the storm to work with.   As of Friday evening, the storm was forecast to have a central pressure of 984 millibars, for 29.05 or so inches.

That would break low pressure records for a storm at the end of May.    

You could tell this storm would be a strange powerhouse before it even formed. The ingredients for the storm were over the Ohio Valley yesterday,. That spun off an unexpected tornado in Kentucky that killed one person and injured about 20.

Tornado warnings blared in parts of the Mid-Atlantic States Friday afternoon and evening, including near Washington DC and Baltimore.

All this energy has not consolidated into the nor'easter that was heading into New England early today. 

Though thunderstorms are possible in eastern two thirds of New England today, they are not expected to be severe.

But it will get rather windy here for a late May storm, since the nor'easter will be so strong.  Gust could exceed 30 mph, especially on hill and in north/south oriented valleys. That shouldn't be strong enough to cause much in the way of power outages

However, the ground is so wet that the wind might topple shallow rooted trees that would be situated in mud instead of solid ground because of all this rain.

RAINY MAY AND RECORDS

 If the rainfall pans out as expected, most stations in Vermont will end up with one of the top 10 wettest Mays on record. 

We might also break rainfall record for today's date. Record rainfall for May 31 in Montpelier is 0.99 inches. The forecast total rainfall today in Montpelier is 1.33 inches,  so that stands a great chance of being broken.

In Burlington, the record rainfall for May 31 is 1.34 inches in 1998, which means there's an iffier chance of breaking today's rainfall record. The forecast rainfall in Burlington today is 1.17 inches. 

As an aside, that May 31, 1998 storm is quite memorable here in Vermont and throughout the Northeast and Midwest. 

That May 31, 1998 storm created one of the worst tornado and severe storm outbreaks on record in the Midwest and  Northeast. It started with a tornado that killed six people in Spencer, South Dakota. 

A severe derecho  blasted its way west to east across the entire Great Lakes region. Tornadoes spun up in in Pennsylvania and New York, One of them a strong EF-3, caused extensive damage around Mechanicsville, New York.

That same tornado continued on into Bennington County, Vermont as an EF-2 (very strong for Vermont. The twister traveled east along Route 67 through North Bennington, damaging houses and the campus of Bennington College, before finally dissipating two miles east of South Shaftsbury.

Thankfully, no tornadoes are expected in Vermont and the rest of the Northeast from this odd strong, weirdly out of season nor'easter.

Montpelier, Burlington and other Vermont cities are poised to have one of their top ten Mays on record, but we're unlikely to have THE wettest May on record. 

Before the rain started Saturday, Burlington had 4.97 inches of rain so far in May.  The wettest May was 8.74 inches in 2013, and we certainly won't have more than three inches of rain in Burlington today. But the 10th wettest May had 5.55 inches, so we should get to at least that. 

LOOKING AHEAD

Sunday is also looking a little worse than originally forecast, at least in northern Vermont.  A lobe of moisture coming down from Quebec from the departing storm will likely set off numerous, albeit rather light showers Sunday afternoon and night. 

Highs Sunday will only be in the 50s, and only near 50 in higher elevation towns in the north,  Unlike earlier forecasts, it now seems possible there will be some snowflakes on some mountain peaks, like Mansfield and Jay Peak. 

A sharp warmup to summertime levels is still expected in the upcoming week.  We'll have to watch for end of the week thunderstorms. With the wet ground, if those storms are slow moving or numerous, that could spell trouble.

It's too soon to say whether that will happen or not, so I wouldn't worry about it for now. 

ANOTHER Out Of Season Nor'easter About To Strike Vermont/New England. On Saturday, Of Course!

Forecast weather map for Saturday shows 
another rare May nor'easter over New England
the second one this month. Only two 
percent of all nor'easters hit in May, at least usually

Historically, only about two percent of all nor'easters strike New England in May.  Nor'easters are creatures of the winter.  

However, we're about to be hit by the second nor'easter this month. Go figure.

This one will come through Saturday, which of course will by far make Saturday in Vermont the wettest, gloomiest day of this week. It will also be the tenth Saturday in a row with rain.  It's a Vermont tradition!

BEFORE WE GET THERE

Today will be the last truly nice day for awhile, but most of the upcoming days, with the exception of Saturday, won't be a total loss.

It got up to 82 degrees in Burlington yesterday. Summer warmth, but the humidity was rock-bottom low, so it felt pleasant. 

We'll do it again today, with highs at similar levels. Sunshine will tend to fade behind high clouds this afternoon, but it will still be a wonderful day to get outdoors.

Tomorrow, not so much. It should be cooler under a lot of clouds. Showers will roam around Vermont, especially in the afternoon. They won't be heavy, only depositing maybe a tenth to at most a quarter inch of rain.

With the clouds, it'll be noticeably cooler, rising up to only the 65 to 72 degree range.

Friday looks better. At least there will be some sun.  There is a risk of showers, but they should be light and won't last all day, Temperatures should pop back up into the 70s for many of us

SATURDAY NOR'EASTER

Then we get into Saturday. Our nor'easter. If current forecasts hold, it'll pretty much rain all day. It could come down hard at times. It very likely won't be enough to cause flooding, but it will keep our ground super saturated. If there's any flooding, it would be very widely scattered and quite minor. Definitely no big flash floods and damage like we had on Saturday, May 17 with those severe thunderstorms.

We won't even hear thunder with this nor'easter

If this were winter, the storm would take a perfect track to give us a huge snowstorm, But it's the very end of May, so rain it is!  Unlike last week's nor'easter, it won't even be cold enough on mountain summits for snow.

Still, it will be cold for this time of year for us valley dwellers, with highs only near 60.   

This nor'easter will also be "better" than the last one for another reason. It won't linger around obnoxiously for days like last week's storm did. It'll zip on through, and be pretty much out of our hair by later Saturday night. 

BEYOND SATURDAY.

The nor'easter will be somewhere around central Quebec Sunday, whipping chilly north winds and showers down on us during the day. So it will be quite a chilly first day of June, with highs only in the upper 50s and low 60s.  Those showers should be light, but perhaps frequent, though it won't rain all day. 

The storm will be further north Monday, but still close enough to keep it chilly for June and give us the risk of some scattered light showers.

But after that, the nor'easter will be a memory. Forecasts of course are iffy in the long term, so we can't get into specifics. But it does look like we're in for a dramatic warm up starting Tuesday and continuing on for the rest of the week. 

Hoping This Nor'easter Is Vermont's Last Mention Of Snow Until Autumn

If you're bummed by the forecast of a little snow in the 
mountains the next couple days, it could be worse.
This is Mount Marcy in the Adirondacks
on May 26, 2013.

After a mediocre day of weather on Wednesday - I guess the best we can hope for lately - we're back to the deep chill and rain. And snow. 

The snow is still forecast to be limited to the highest elevations of Vermont and New Hampshire, but it's a little disconcerting to have this issue on the cusp of Memorial Day.

True, this kind of thing has happened before this time of year, but it doesn't make it any easier. 

THE FORECAST

For the vast majority of us in Vermont who will not see snow, we get to endure another three day spell of temperatures reminiscent of late March than late May.  

The dampness and mostly light rain and chilly easterly breezes will add to the misery. We are still forecast to have near record low high temperatures today. 

Burlington won't set the record today. It was in the low 50s before dawn and the record low high for the date is 49 back in 1917. Monpelier so far has tied its record low high for the date of 46, but it will probably get a little above that today, so no record.

If anything, though, Friday might be even a bit chillier. 

At least here in Vermont, forecasters have backed off a little on precipitation amounts. It'll be close to an inch in far southern parts of the state and maybe a third of an inch in the far northwest.

The nor'easter will be especially felt in eastern New England, where one to three inches of windswept rain is due, along with gusts along the shore to 55 mph, where minor coastal flooding is likely.  

Back here in Vermont, this will be a long lasting affair, starting today and going through Saturday. I think that makes this Saturday the ninth in a row with at least some rain. The stubborn storm will stall near eastern Maine and only grudgingly start to move away on Sunday. 

The snow, such as it is, will hit all the peaks of the Green Mountains but focus on central and southern Vermont where the precipitation will be heavier. I still think some of the summits down there will see up to three or four inches of snow. 

Worst case scenario, a few wet snowflakes will make it down to as low as 2,000 feet above sea level

COULD BE WORSE

If you think this is bad, harken back to May 2013.  On Memorial Day weekend, May 25-27, the mountains of Vermont, New Hampshire and New York got absolutely buried in snow. 

Mount Mansfield had 13.2 inches of snow. Jay Peak accumulated 18 inches. Mount Marcy over in the Adirondacks received three feet of snow 

The snow at times ventured down to valley floors. Snowflakes fell in elevations as low as 750 feet in Vermont, and accumulations were reported at elevations of 1,500 feet. 

Right before the the May, 2013 snow developed, in some cases serious floods hit parts of Vermont. Homes were damaged in some spots, and several roads closed. About 7.5 inches of rain poured down on Burlington between May 21 and 26,

And you thought this May was wet?

The 2013 late May storms set the stage for repeated flash floods in Vermont through June and the first half of July that year.

By the way, the latest in the season Burlington has ever seen snowflakes is on May 31, 1945.

So you see, this latest bout of cold rain and mountain snow won't be setting any records. Cold comfort, indeed.  

Cold, Damp May Weather In Vermont/New England About To Get Worse

Snow fell atop Mount Manfield, Vermont earlier this week.
An unseasonably cold nor'easter starting tomorrow might
bring even more snow to the Green Mountains summits.
In the valleys, we're in for a long spell of wet, raw, chilly
weather for this time of year.

After last week's summer warmth, the past few days have been a shock. 

Damp, overcast, drizzly and cold. It even snowed a little atop Mount Mansfield earlier this week. 

After sort of, kind of a break today, it's about to get even worse. 

An out of season nor'easter is going to make things even wetter and a little colder than it's been. 

 There probably will even be a little more snow on the mountain summits.  High temperatures Thursday through Saturday throughout most of New England will be near record lows.  

Let's take it day by day.

TODAY:

Today will be the pick of the week, which isn't saying much at all. Highs will be a little warmer than recent days with temperatures poking up to maybe 60 degrees instead of just 50.  That 60 degrees is still about ten degrees chillier than average for this time of year. 

We might even see breaks of sun, but clouds will still predominate. Chances of showers are actually pretty low.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT

Here comes the nor'easter. Overall, rainfall will be much heavier in southern Vermont, and in southern New England that in central and northern sections.  If current forecasts hold, more than an inch of rain will fall in far southern Vermont through Saturday morning.  Northern areas should see a third to a half inch. Roughly three quarters of an inch will fall in central Vermont. 

Down in southeastern New England, windswept rain will total one to two inches, maybe even locally three inches. 

The first wave of rain will come in Thursday morning, then wane some in the afternoon. But it will stay cold, with highs near 50 at best. A raw east wind will make it feel even worse. 

The bulk of the rain will come through Thursday night.  It will be a cold night for late May.  Temperatures will only be near 40 as it rains, and those gusty east winds will continue.

Up on the mountain tops, especially in the southern and central Green Mountains, it will probably snow,  The summit of Killington could get a few inches of snow out this, believe it or not.

Snow will be mostly limited to elevations above 3,000 feet but I wouldn't be surprised if a few wet snowflakes get a little lower than that. 

By the way, had this been winter, the storm coming would have been a very nice dump of snow for New England, including much of Vermont.

It seems odd we're getting a nor'easter this time of year. But they can happen at any time. They're just way more common in the late autumn, winter, and early spring. 

FRIDAY/SATURDAY

This particular storm will be in no hurry to leave.  It'll be near southeastern New England Thursday night and only make it as far as the eastern tip of Maine by Saturday morning. 

That will keep the cold, showery conditions going on Friday and Saturday. It won't rain heavily during that time. Just pesky, frequent light showers as daytime temperatures continue to hover near 50 degrees.

I suppose there might be some slight improvement Sunday and Monday as the storm slowly pulls away. At least the clouds might break a little Sunday and temperatures should be a little warmer,

With any luck - and it will take some luck - Memorial Day might actually be reasonable, with just a chance of a few showers, breaks of sun and temperatures up in the 60s to near 70. Unlike the next few days, if that forecast comes to pass on Monday, it will be just slightly cooler than normal.  Not ridiculous. 

 

Quick Sunday Evening Snow Update: For Most Of Vermont, A Small, Quick Cold Storm

The snow has gotten at least into southern Vermont.
Route 7 in Shaftsbury was looking pretty snowy
at 5:15 p.m. today as this traffic cam shows.

 As of late Sunday afternoon, everything remained on track for a mostly small, cold snowfall in Vermont, as the best area for snow slides just to our south. 

Bennington and Windham counties in the far south are still in play, as they should manage to see five to seven inches. 

Forecasts for elsewhere in Vermont haven't changed much, maybe having backed off a smidge since this morning, but that will be barely noticeable. 

It looks like the storm will track maybe a dozen or two miles further east than forecast this morning, which could cut down on those southern Vermont totals just slightly. 

The wild card is the central and especially northern Champlain Valley which will be in a battle ground between very dry, Arctic air heading south from Canada, and moisture streaming north from the storm. 

We know the cold air will at least mostly win out, and prospects for more than an inch or two near Lake Champlain seem slim. There's a possibility that so much dry, bitter air comes in that nothing comes down up near St. Albans, North Hero, Swanton and Alburgh. 

The snow has been creeping northward late this afternoon. It started snowing in Bennington around 3 p.m. Traffic cameras appeared to show heavy snow falling on Route 9 in the mountains between Bennington and Brattleboro as of 5 p.m.  It looked like it was just starting to snow in Mount Holly, a little southeast of Rutland, as of 5:15 p.m. 

Traffic cam shows heavy snow and poor visibility along
high elevation Route 9 in Searsburg at around 5:30 p.m.
Sunday. High elevations of far southern Vermont will
see the most snow out of this. The Champlain 
Valley will see almost nothing. 

Travel will be not great overnight and early tomorrow, especially in the southeastern half of Vermont. Up in the Champlain Valley, if a little snow falls, it'll be deceptive. 

It won't look like much but the low temperatures will make that dusting of snow compact on highways into a visually imperceptible black ice. 

Careful overnight and during your commute tomorrow morning. Or just stay home. 

The snow will be over by dawn, but if you have to travel, especially south, consider waiting until later in the morning if possible. 

Note that the bad roads extend through central and southern New England and on down into the Middle Atlantic States. 

The anticipated cold wave will be in place Monday through Wednesday, with little change in the forecast. However, after this storm passes, it looks like we'll see no real storms for at least a week, maybe more. 

The only question would be if the storm that's prompting rare winter storm warnings along the Gulf Coast come much closer to New England than forecast toward the end of the week.  Odds are against that, at least at this point. 

Some Big New Twists In Vermont Weekend/Cold Wave Forecast: Surprise Nor'Easter

The National Weather Service first guess forecast on
a fast moving nor'easter that could blast past New
England Sunday night just as Arctic air arrives.
This is highly subject to change, but northwestern
areas shouldn't get much, but a winter storm
watch has been issued for far southern Vermont
Stay tuned for updates. 

 Figured I'd offer a Friday evening Vermont update since there's some interesting weather coming up and some big changes in the forecast. 

The big headline is the risk of a bit of a snowstorm later Sunday, Sunday night and early Monday that we weren't planning on.

More on that in a bit.

First, we have something of a stormy day in store Saturday, at least in the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York. There won't be much rain or snow to speak of, but we do have a good blast of wind coming in.

Everyone will get windy, but the gusts will really funnel up the Champlain Valley. A wind advisory has been issued Grand Isle County, and the western halves of Chittenden and Franklin counties.

In those areas, gusts could reach 50 mph. maybe even 55 mph on the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. The strongest winds will probably hit between 6 a.m. and 2 p.m. 

That means the risk of scattered power outages and a few downed trees. It won't be a widespread problem, but if you're in the Champlain Valley, charge your devices just in case.

It'll also make for some interesting times on Lake Champlain and its shoreline. There's ice out there on parts of the lake. The wind will probably break off some of the ice and send it northward. 

I'd probably avoid ice fishing Saturday as pieces can break off and you could be trapped on those ice floes as they float away. There could also locally be some ice shoves on south facing shores, so there's a chance a few docks, beaches, and boathouses could suffer a bit of damage.

Also, the wind will really pick up before temperatures get above freezing, so splash over from the expected big waves could freeze on roads near the shore. I'm thinking the Route 2 causeway between Milton and South Hero and other roads on the islands.

By afternoon, temperatures should be above freezing, so that would end the freezing spray problem. 

There will probably be some strong winds up in the Green Mountains, too, so some of the ski resort lifts might be subject to lift holds

SURPRISE SNOW?

A few rain or snow showers will come ahead and along a cold front later Saturday and Saturday night. This won't really be a big deal.

High temperatures Sunday will come right after midnight and fall thereafter as the Arctic air blasts in

As this is happening, a new storm will form Sunday in the Carolinas, along the southern end of the Arctic cold front.

We've known for days this was going to happen, but most indicators predicted this would head out to sea well south of New England, pushed away by the blast of frigid air.

But the core of the icy blast of North Pole air is initially plunging almost due south into the middle of the United States. That's helping bend steering currents on the East Coast more south to north, at least briefly, opening a window for the storm to race right into southeastern New England. 

That would push snow right into central and western parts of New England. Maybe. The computer models are still arguing with each other on ths. 

That argument means there's still debate as to how far northwest the heavier snow will get. But current forecasts have that snow much further to the northwest than predictions just 24 hours ago.

For now, it's all enough to prompt a winter storm watch for far southern Vermont, where seven or more inches could accumulate between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. That part of the state has mostly missed out on the "flurried to death" weather regime that has brought pretty much daily light snows to the northern part of the state.

So they'll finally get a real snow cover in places like Bennington, Brattleboro and perhaps White River Junction.

At this point the snow from this fast-moving nor'easter  looks like it should spread over all of Vermont, but for now, accumulations look really light in northwestern Vermont. 

Stay tuned on forecast updates, as they will surely change one way or another as the event draws near.

It'll be a cold storm, with temperatures probably near 10 degrees while the snow falls. 

The storm will zip by and be out of our hair by Monday afternoon. It will become a powerful storm in the Canadian Maritimes, but that won't be our problem here in Vermont.

Instead, we'll share in the Arctic air with most of the rest of the Lower 48 Monday through Wednesday. Daily highs will be in the single numbers to low teens, and nights will be below zero.

Make sure you have enough fuel in your tank for home heating. Also top off the gas in your car if it's not an EV, as things go better in frigid weather with a full tank of gas.

This still looks like a pretty short fused cold snap. Temperatures will remain a bit cold after Wednesday, but definitely nothing unreasonable as high temperatures go into the 20s from Thursday onward.  

One More Really Wet Vermont Day, Then An (Eventual) Heat Wave?

Today won't be a day for enjoying the summer out on the
deck. A chilly, day long rain is underway in Vermont.
Which is OK, we still need the moisture. 

 Dark, rainy and cold for the season is the story for us as we got up this Saturday morning. 

This will be Vermont's big washout weekend day of the summer.  Probably simultaneously the worst and best weather day of the season. 

It's the worst day of course because outdoor recreation today in Vermont is tricky at best.   Temperatures will stay in the low 60s, a good 15 degrees below normal.  If it stops raining where you are for 10 minutes, consider yourself lucky. 

On the other hand, it's a fantastic weather day.  It's pretty rare to get a good, day long soaking statewide this time of year.  And, it's the second good widespread soaking with a week. 

Usually, it's hit and miss showers and thunderstorms during the summer months.  More often than not, those showers are widespread enough in the summer to give us adequate wetting, but not always. We really needed this wet week, because it was too dry before this hit, and we're in for what looks like another spell of hot, dry, weather. At least eventually. 

More on that in a bit. 

SOAKING RAINS 

Yesterday's rain in Vermont was indeed hit and miss. Some places got a lot less than expected, a few spots got more. It was a strange day on the radar screen. Showers and thunderstorms developed randomly, especially north, some with heavy downpours. 

They moved very slowly, if at all, and erratically. Some storms approaching from Canada headed south, while other areas of rain moved eastward or even northward.  I'm sure a few spots got TONS of rain, which slightly raises the stakes for potential minor flooding in those areas today.

So far, the most rain I've seen anywhere in Vermont as of 7 a.m. is 1.51 inches in Hinesburg, but I'm sure a few local spots got more. 

Today's storm is acting very much like a wintertime nor'easter. Except it's not going to snow. 

The storm is consolidating along the New England coast, and is flinging some occasionally fairly heavy rain westward all the way through New England into New York State.

In the winter, something called a deformation zone, a stripe of heavier snow, sets up well northwest of the nor'easter. This situation gives us Vermont our big dumps of snow for the ski areas.

That wintertime deformation zone seems to be setting up in eastern New York and Vermont today. Which explains why rainfall totals for most us, starting last night and ending tonight, will amount to more than an inch. 

This heavy rain seems like it will hit New Hampshire and Maine a little harder, so flood watches are up in that area.

No flood alerts are in effect in Vermont as of mid-morning. Forecasters are watching areas of especially heavy rain for signs of high water. So far, it looks like we'll escape with  nothing worse than ponding of water on some roads, underpasses and low spots. 

DRYING, HEATING UP

The upper level storm system that has been keeping us wet will gradually depart over the next few days,  to be replaced by a heat dome that will center itself over Ontario, parts of Quebec and extending into the northern Great Lakes and northern New England. 

A heat dome, common in the summer, is an area of high pressure that traps an area of hot air beneath it. These can lead to extended, record breaking heat waves. 

This one looks like it might only last a few days, but probably will cause some record heat in parts of Ontario and Quebec.

For us, it means a gradual shift during the upcoming week from cooler than normal weather Sunday, to near normal conditions Monday through Wednesday, then hot by the end of the week, with temperatures possibly reaching 90 degrees by then. 

This will shut off the waterworks. We might still see a few light showers Sunday, but that will probably be just about it through at least Friday. (Though there might be a few isolated light showers in the mountains Monday and Tuesday).

The new weather pattern is obviously bad news for those wildfires burning in Quebec and Ontario. They're really not getting much rain up there and the fires are still going. The upcoming hot, dry weather in these Canadian provinces will reinvigorate some of these fires, and new ones will likely start. 

For us, that just keeps the chances of more smoke attacks in Vermont and much of the eastern United States going for probably at least the rest of the month. 

Sunday Morning Storm Update: Southern Vermont Still Looks Like The Big Target

The latest snow forecast from the National Weather 
Service depicts a not big deal 3 to five inches of 
snow far north to a terrible, heavy wet foot and
a half far south. Southern Vermont looks 
locked in for a big storm. Far northern Vermont is
still a wild card. Up there, they could get far
more, or far less than what's depicted on this map.

 Today will be a lovely one to get outside before the weather in Vermont goes downhill in a hurry. 

Aside for increasing high clouds this afternoon ahead of the storm, we'll have a decent amount of sun for a change. It'll only get up to 40 degrees or so, but the sun and expected light winds will make it feel warmer than it really is. 

All great for winter sports, not bad for sugaring, and a small amount of snow will melt to make just a little room for the new snow that's coming. 

THE UPDATE

While all of Vermont is in for some lousy weather with the incoming, giant storm, it's still looking like it will be just a nuisance in far northern parts of the state, but a real challenge south. 

Most of the two southernmost counties of Vermont are now expecting nearly a foot and a half of snow. It's not out of the question that a couple high elevations in far southern Vermont could see more than two feet of snow out of this. So that's up there in the list of would be historic storms.

These areas missed much of the snow this winter, so I guess they're getting their comeuppance of sorts. 

This is going to be a heavy, wet snow, accompanied by quite a bit of wind. This is a recipe of a lot of power outages and tree damage.  Under this scenario, some power outages could last a few days. 

Central Vermont will be in somewhat less trouble, but will still have some real problems with this storm. Most of this area can expect 5 to 12 inches of wet snow. Though not as bad as a foot and a half, this is more than enough to cause trouble with power outages. 

The places in central Vermont that will be closer to a foot of snow are the usual suspects in somewhat higher spots on or near  the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. We're talking towns like Ludlow, Cavendish, Mount Holly, Shrewsbury, Killington - that neck of the woods. 

Northwestern Vermont is still the real wild card in this storm.  Will a surge of moisture dump a fair amount of snow up there? Or will dry air from Quebec squash that idea?

The National Weather Service has these worst case and best case scenario maps that go either way of the official prediction.  The maps show what would happen if the storm really over-performs or under-performs. 

In this case, the northern Champlain Valley is really questionable. For instance, the official forecast snowfall for St. Albans is 3.1 inches.  But the worst and best case maps give St. Albans either absolutely no snow, or as much as 10 inches.  Either extreme likely won't happen, but you can see the forecast challenge. 

Part of the issue is the time of year.  When it's snowing hard during the day in March, it can really pile up. If it's just light snow with thinner clouds, the sun's warmth can get through.  So the snow will often melt as it hits, or mix with rain. That might be part of the issue in northern Vermont along and north of Route 2. 

TIMING

Some light rain and wet snow could break out Monday afternoon. For the evening commute, I don't think it'll be that big a deal, except maybe a little bit in higher elevations. 

Overnight Monday, the precipitation will gradually pick up speed and the snow will start to accumulate. In low elevations, the snow could be mixed with some rain well into the evening. 

Where the heaviest snow hits, Tuesday will be the main show. Dense, wet snow will come down amid gusty winds in at least a few places. So you know what that will do to power lines and travel. 

The snow will ever so slowly taper off Tuesday night and Wednesday as the huge storm finally starts heading eastbound away from the New England coast. It'll stay windy through Wednesday, so power outages might continue into midweek.

WHAT TO DO

If you're in  northern Vermont, be on guard. This storm might be a bit of a big deal, or it could be a nothing burger.  If you need to run errands, do it today or Monday morning, just in case.  

In central and especially southern Vermont, get ready to stay home, and not travel on Tuesday. Also, stock up for possibly long power outages. That means get your  batteries, LED candles and all that set up.  Don't use candles with real flames. They're a fire hazard. If a blaze starts, don't count on the fire department to get to your place readily during the height of the storm.

Note that secondary and back roads in particular might not only be blocked by snow, but by fallen trees, branches and power cables. 

By the way, the Hudson Valley of New York, Catskills, much of New Hampshire, western and northern Massachusetts and northwestern Connecticut are in the same boat as southern Vermont, so cancel your travel plans for those areas Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. 

Coastal New England, New York and New Jersey face heavy rain and snow, strong winds and possible shoreline flooding. 

Storm On Tuesday Could Be Real Mess Parts Of Vermont/New England

This is just one of many depictions of what the
nor'easter might look like on Tuesday. This is
big time subject to change. 

 The forecasts are coming into a little better focus for what could be a messy, sluggish but hefty storm in New England coming up during the first half of next week. 

The devil is in the details, of course, and those details could definitely change between now and storm time. 

However, parts of Vermont could see more than a foot of heavy, wet snow, and that type of deal can cause real trouble with electric utilities.  have a feeling Green Mountain Power and other Vermont utilities are already getting their staffing and repair plans in place for this one. 

Again, though subject to change, at this point it looks like the main target will be mid and high elevations of central and southern Vermont. Parts of New Hampshire, Maine, and Massachusetts are also in for a mess like this, too.

THE SET UP

Most of the storms this year have been hit and runs. They raced in, deposited a quick moderate dose of snow or schmutz and moved on almost before you know what hit you. 

This one looks to be big, slow, lumbering giant, which would linger around New England for quite awhile. One model I looks at has it lurking around southeastern New England from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning. 

That gives the storm a lot of time to dump its load of snow, or rain, or whatever on the region. 

It kind of reminds me of the storm track of the Blizzard of 1888. Before you get too alarmed, though, this won't be nearly as bad, or nearly as cold as that 19th century snow disaster.  

Still, I foresee trouble for somebody. Since it's not a very cold storm, and it is March, that's almost a  guarantee of heavy. wet snow.  The National Weather Service office in South Burlington is already saying that it's possible for us to see as much as two feet of snow in one or two spots if this plays out as it might well do.

This looks like it might also be a storm that affects mid and high elevations more than anything else. 

The sun's angle is higher now as we head into spring, and some heat can come through the thickest clouds. So in the warmer valleys, we could have a mix with rain. Or the snow would be so sloppy slushy that it would largely melt as it hits the ground. 

That also depends on the intensity of the snow at the time. In places where it's really coming down  hard, that would cool the atmosphere a bit and the snow would pile up fast regardless of the time of day. 

Northern Vermont is once again a wild card, like it was during the last two storms.  It does seem that some snow (and maybe a little rain in the Champlain Valley) is inevitable with this, it's hard to say how badly we'll be affected, especially along and north of Route 2.

We just don't know yet where the heaviest snow will set up. It does seem more likely in the southern half of Vermont, though. 

WHEN IT HITS

An initial, much smaller snowfall was going on in far southern Vermont early this morning. Steady snow has reached as far north as Brandon.  Judging from Vermont Agency of Transportation web cams, mostly places in the southern Vermont snow zone have gotten about a half inch to two inches of snow, with maybe a touch more than that in higher elevations. 

Also, judging from the view out my St. Albans, Vermont window, some flurries have made it as far north as the northern Adirondacks, but I'm sure there's little, if any accumulation. 

That light snow should be out of Vermont by late morning, and the weekend will be quiet. 

As the new, bigger storm gathers, we should see clouds on Monday, with light rain and snow breaking out in the afternoon or early evening.  Everything should turn to snow overnight Monday, but it might not snow that hard until early morning. 

The main show is expected on Tuesday, with a slow decrease in the rate of snow or rainfall Tuesday night and Wednesday.  This timing is of course subject to change. 

I know I've said it already but it bears repeating thatthe storm forecast will probably change. Maybe by a lot. As we draw closer to the storm, meteorologists will be able to hone in on details for more specific areas. 

Big Vermont/New England Storm Next Week? Hold Your Horses. It's Really Iffy

UPDATE 6 PM FRIDAY

Quick update to this morning's post.

Forecast map has a pretty good storm near New England'
on Tuesday. This is just one of many variations of what
could play out for storminess next week. 

That storm I told you about this morning that would go by to our south still will do so, but the fringe effects in Vermont will

out to be a little more extensive than we thought this morning. 

The storm is more dynamic than it seemed it would be this morning. There's been some heavy snow today in western and central New York, for instance. 

Buffalo, New York has gotten to six inches and it's still coming down.

Here in Vermont, high elevations in far southern parts of the state look like they're in for around four or even five inches of new snow tonight. 

Lower elevations can expect maybe two or three inches. 

That's a contrast to the one to three inches  along and south of Route 9 that we expected this morning. 

The snow will extend further north than anticipated, too. Snowflakes could touch down as far north as Route 2. Low elevations in Rutland and Windsor counties should see an inch or less, but up to two inches or so should come down in ski resorts like Okemo, Killington and Pico.

The storm next week looks more certain for Vermont, too. I still stand by everything I wrote this morning, which you can read below. Except: It's now almost certain that all of Vermont will get some snow. Maybe a little, maybe a lot in some areas. 

If anybody in Vermont gets tons of snow, my initial guess is high elevations of southern Vermont. But that's not a promise.  

There's a risk of heavy, wet snow, too, and power outages if things turn out for the worse. I'll have a bigger update on this upcoming storm in Saturday morning's post, so stay tuned! 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 

Rumors abound today of a big winter storm to blast Vermont/New England next week. 

Before you get your panties in a bunch over this, you might want to take a deep breath and realize this: It's complicated. As usual. 

Something interesting seems like it wants to happen around New England starting Monday and lasting at least into midweek, but right now it could be anything from a nothing burger, to a mid-sized storm to a blockbuster. 

Right now, I'm not really in the blockbuster camp. At least for most of Vermont. A lot of other meteorologist are skeptical, too. 

So: Here's what's going on. 

I told you about the so-called Greenland Block in a post I published Thursday. That's the big high pressure system that gave Greenland an early taste of summer in recent days but has recently made Vermont's weather pretty humdrum lately. 

That state of affairs will continue through the weekend around here. The Greenland Block is suppressing storms to our south. One storm, which some forecasts several days ago predicted would harass us Vermonters tomorrow is going to pretty much miss. 

This is an eastbound storm from the Midwest should arrive at the Jersey Shore sometime tonight. (Hello, Snooki!). Instead of making a left turn and becoming a nor'easter like many of these storms do, it'll trundle off to the east, thanks to our friend the Greenland Block. 

The storm will stay too far south to give us Vermonters any kind of interesting weather. Oh, sure, there might be an inch or two of snow along and south of Route 9 and some snowflakes as far north as Route 4, but no biggie. 

Expect a blah weekend, though Sunday might give us some sunshine. 

THEN WHAT?

The big high pressure up in Greenland is moving a bit westward, into far northern Canada. That would allow the next Jersey shore-bound storm early next week to turn north and attack us. Maybe. 

One possibility is that the storm will go off the coast like this weekend's will, but then be forces northward or even northwestward into New England Monday night and Tuesday. Since that blocking high pressure is still way up there in northern Canada, the storm's northward progress could be stopped by that roadblock to the north. 

If that happens, the storm could linger near or east of New England at least into Wednesday. If that happens, snow or rain will linger quite a bit longer than it otherwise would, so you could potentially see big snow accumulations. If it's cold enough. 

THE POSSIBILITIES

Temperature is just one question with this potential storm. 

Here are some others:

1. Maybe the Greenland Block will not move fast enough and the storm will just go out to sea and miss New England like the one on Saturday.  

Many forecasts have the storm slowing down near
New England. This is a forecast map for Wednesday,
and you can compare the map above and see
the storm doesn't skedaddle out like most 
storms this winter. Of course, this is
just one depiction of what could happen and
is definitely NOT an official forecast. 

2. The storm could curl northward toward New England, but give eastern New England a big storm and leave us Vermonters just some fringe effects. If it turns out to be a "bomb cyclone," like some models indicate, somebody in New Hampshire, Maine or eastern Massachusetts could get really buried. 

3. The storm could really make a tight northward jog and come inland or close to it in eastern Massachusetts. If that happens, it would rain down there, but Vermont could be in the cross-hairs of a LOT of snow. 

Anything is possible. As of last evening, varying computer models had the storm somewhere between New York City and Bermuda Monday night. So as of this morning, all anybody can do is forecast a dusting to two feet of snow in Vermont during the first half of the week. 

My bias at the moment is against a huge blockbuster, except possibly in southeastern Vermont, but I've been wrong before.  We stand a decent chance of seeing some accumulating snow in at least part of Vermont, but that's as far as I want to go for now.

I don't think meteorologists will have a great handle on forecasting this wannabe storm until Sunday. And even after that, I expect the unexpected. 

Even if we do see a lot of snow, or at least precipitation, remember it's March, and it can easily mix with or change to rain in the valleys. It's warmer this time of year. 

The sun angle is high, too. Even if it stays snow, accumulations would be limited. That's what we saw last Saturday. It snowed all afternoon, but there was no new accumulation with the sun's heat working its way through the clouds. 

MARCH 12-15 SNOW BOMB MAGNET?

Here's one thing that could give cause for concern with this potential storm, but it is completely unscientific. 

There's something about March 12-15 that seems to attract mega-snowstorms to Vermont and other parts of New England. 

The famous blizzard of 1888, which dumped up to 50 inches of snow on southwestern Vermont and two to three feet across most of the state, struck on March 12-14.

On March 13-14, 1984, three feet of snow  fell on most of the southern four counties of Vermont within 24 hours, while eastern Vermont received two feet. Just the Champlain Valley was spared. "Only" 10 inches fell on Burlington.

The famous "Storm of the Century" hit the eastern United States, including Vermont on March 12-14, 1993. Here in Vermont, most of us had around two feet of snow, which included snow thunderstorms. Although the storm was huge even by Vermont standards, the impacts here weren't as bad as in many other states, so in Vermont, I dubbed the blizzard, "Storm of the Weekend."

More recently, the "Pi-Day Blizzard" struck Vermont on March 14, 2017. Northwestern Vermont was plastered with up to 32 inches of snow. At times, snow fell at a whopping rate of five inches per hour. Burlington received 30.4 inches of snow, its second biggest snowstorm on record,.

Other large snowstorms have hit Vermont in this time period in recent years. Burlington's 13th biggest snowstorm on record hit on March 12-13, 2014 with 18.7 inches. 

Another snowstorm on March 13-14, 2018, deposited as much as 30 inches of snow on Eden, Stowe, and Westfield, Vermont. At my place in St. Albans, I struggled with 18.5 inches of heavy, wet snow. 

I think big snowstorms hit in mid-March because it's often still just cold enough to snow around here. But the South is warming into spring. The clash between the warmth of spring and lingering winter cold is often greatest in mid-March. Which can result in some big storms. 

I don't know whether next week's storm will join the list of mid-March blockbusters. If it does, it will add to a long list. 

Thursday Vermont Storm Update: Messy Valleys, Snowy Mountains

The latest snow forecast map from the National Weather Service
office in South Burlington. Forecasters are increasingly
optimistic that the entire state will receive at least 
several inches of snow. The mountains will be the big winners.

I suppose it's a good sign where the forecast for the upcoming nor'easter hasn't changed all that much between late yesterday afternoon and this morning.  

At least there's consistency. 

The National Weather Service office in Burlington has upgraded all winter storm watches into winter storm warnings statewide, so that makes things pretty inevitable. 

It still looks like the big winners with the storm will be the mountains and ski areas, which will basically get what will feel like a never ending snowfall. In some parts of Green Mountains, especially the northern half of that range, it'll start snowing early Friday morning. That snow up there could keep going well into Sunday. 

Yay for the ski areas!

The lower in the valleys you are, the more you will sort of lose out.  It'll still snow, and accumulate, but much of it will be a wet slushy mess, some rain could still get thrown in, it'll be a pain in the butt, and the back and everything else to shovel, and you could lose electricity.  If you have to drive anywhere during this, that'll be annoying at best, too.

Um, yay?  Sort of?  

The scenario for this still pictures this storm lasting a long time, and coming in waves. We still have lots of question marks and some of those question marks will persist right up into the storm itself, so we'll have to adjust as we go along. 

The first burst of snow will move south to north across Vermont early Friday, and make for an, um, interesting Friday morning commute. In some places, the snow will be coming down hard, maybe at a pace of one to two inches per hour, so the plow trucks will have trouble keeping up. Wet snow is also more slippery than a midwinter powder fest, so that will be a factor Friday morning, too. 

East winds might block some of the moisture, so places right along the western slopes of the Green Mountains seem like they'll have somewhat lighter snow. Plus, compressional warming as the air flows down the west slopes of the Greens could turn the snow to rain in low elevations immediately below those mountains.

As the morning wears on and into the afternoon, the snow will taper off, as Wave #1 passes off into Quebec. The higher elevations will still be receiving light to sometimes moderate snow. Some of the lower elevations in the Champlain Valley, southwestern Vermont and the lower Connecticut River valley look like they stand a good shot of going over to light rain, sprinkles, drizzle and fog for the midday hours Friday. 

As the storm consolidates along the New England coast, a band of heavier snow looks like it wants to redevelop somewhere over central and northern Vermont later afternoon Friday into the evening. 

Where that band sets up, even if it does, is tricky, so this part of the forecast really has a high bust potential. Could be a great burst, could be a nothingburger.  I'm leaning toward a burst of snow,  with maybe a few inches of new snow Friday evening. 

Here's another complicating factor: If you've been reading this blog thingy for the past couple of days, you'll see I keep mentioning the American computer forecasting models want to take the storm further off the coast. The other models have it hugging the New England coast more. 

The American model was still trying this morning - at least a little - to push the storm offshore. That could still happen. High pressure over eastern Canada and a strong storm east of that high, could deflect the storm that way. I'm not saying that's definitely what will happen, but it remains possible. 

In any event, northwest winds will wrap moisture back around into Vermont Friday night and Saturday. This will favor the western slopes that will have missed out on the first part of the storm. Everybody wins! Feels like Oprah. "You get some snow! And YOU get some snow! You too!"

Overall, the National Weather Service is going with a mid-sized, if sloppy wet snow in the valleys, with generally four to ten inches expected. Remember, this storm has a high bust potential.  Expect the unexpected, as we could be surprised with extra rain, or extra snow in some of the valleys. 

Since this is a long lasting event, the mountains, as noted, will be the big winners, with a foot to foot and a half of snow. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if some higher elevations clock in with two feet by Sunday afternoon. 

Scattered power outages seem like a good bet, too, especially on east facing slopes that are still at low enough elevations to see wet snow and not more powdery stuff. My best guess is the most outages would be in the southern Greens roughly between Wilmington and Bridgewater.

Bottom line, this storm will be both a pain in the neck and a reason to celebrate. Ski areas get a nice dump just in time for Christmas week. So the resorts are happy, and so will the Vermont Department of Taxes, given the anticipated sales tax revenue this storm could bring. 

For valley dwellers, the good thing is there will be snow to play in, and it wills stick around through Christmas Day to get you into the holiday spirit, if you're not there already. 

On the not so happy side with this storm, if you're out of shape or worried about your heart health, please get some robust, brawny teenager to shovel your driveway.  Meanwhile, you can sit inside with your hot chocolate and rifle through your wallet looking for cash to pay said teenager. Or maybe just Venmo them, I don't know.

Also remember, you might be great at driving in the snow, but some people are, frankly idiots. Drive defensively in this one. Also, check on your elderly neighbors, especially if the power goes out. 

Vermont Winter Storm Watches Now Up For Messy, Iffy Nor'easter

The National Weather Service in South Burlington has taken
a first crack at forecasting snow amounts from the upcoming
storm. Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to see.
Also, expect some noticeable adjustments to this 
forecast map between now and Friday. 

 The National Weather Service in South Burlington has gone ahead and hoisted a winter storm watch for all of Vermont except the Northeast Kingdom for the long anticipated storm that is forecast to begin late Thursday night and continue into the weekend.  

We still have a lot of question marks about this storm, including where the heaviest snow falls, how much rain mixes in and where, and the exact track of this system.

It is becoming more clear, though, that this will be a messy one.  Snow that does fall will be wet and heavy, which frankly isn't my favorite. It won't be a classic winter powder fest, that's for sure, although the snow won't be as soggy way  up high in the mountains. 

Prepare for some power outages, tree damage here and there, and a crappy Friday morning commute.  Chances are Friday evening won't be that great, either.  Wet snow on roads tends to be even more slick than more powdery stuff. This will be also be a back-breaker to shovel. 

Remember, a winter storm watch means maybe, get ready just in case. A winter storm warning would mean it's inevitable. The National Weather Service might end up changing the winter storm watch to a winter weather advisory if some places look like they won't end up with all that much snow. We'll find out, won't we?

You can see the uncertainty in the forecast given the predicted snow totals from this morning. Anywhere from four to 16 inches might fall, with locally less amounts in some deeper valleys and more in some favored upper elevations. 

There's a big bust potential, too. Here's a for instance: The NWS in South Burlington puts out those maps you're familiar with that give predicted snow totals. That map gives Burlington a paltry storm total of 3.8 inches, but much more in higher elevations. 

Dig deeper into the NWS website and you see what are called probabilistic forecasts, which give what could be the highest end snowfall out of a storm like, and the lowest end. The range between these two maps is especially wide as of this morning. 

If the storm over-performs, it gives Burlington 10 inches of snow. If the storm under-performs, just two inches.

Overall, east facing slopes that are not on valley floors will probably receive the most snow. Especially in southern Vermont. I'm looking at you, towns like Ludlow, Mount Holly and Shrewsbury. The Northeast Kingdom might not see all that much, as the White Mountains in New Hampshire could block most of the moisture from reaching that part of the state.

The Champlain Valley might also see some moisture blocked by the Green Mountains, and of course the possible mix or change to rain on Friday. It's possible the back end of the storm Saturday could partly make up for that risk of a Champlain Valley snow bust on Friday. I think the further you are from Lake Champlain, the more snow you'll get. 

It does look like any precipitation we get will come in waves, with lulls in between lasting a few hours where little or nothing comes out of the sky. The first thump would come through Friday morning, with another one possible Friday afternoon, with more, somewhat lighter periods of snow or mix

Here are some reasons why this forecast is a real headache for meteorologists.

Most computer forecasting models bring the storm as a nor'easter right up along the New England coast. The American model insists on it curving out to sea for some reason, which would give us much lighter amounts. For now, the betting is that the American model is mostly wrong. But it could surprise us!

Note that even a slight shift in the forecast track will have a huge effect on the amount of snow and/or rain comes down. 

Temperatures are really tricky. It'll be right around the freezing mark for most of the storm. If the Champlain Valley, lowlands in Rutland and Bennington counties and the Lower Connecticut River valley get warm enough, we could see a fair amount of rain and less snow.  It's a tossup, really. 

How much will the Green and White mountains block moisture in valleys just to the west of those mountains?  That one is kinda tricky. 

Definitely expect some adjustments to the forecast between now and Friday. Don't take what I just outlined in this post as gospel.

It still looks like most of any snow that falls out of this storm will stick around through Christmas given an expected relatively chilly weather pattern between now and then. 

Coast To Coast Storm Still Causing Havoc; How It Plays Out In Vermont Still Iffy

Will it look like this in Vermont Friday
and Saturday or will it look tamer?
Still a lot of questions on the 
potential nor'easter

UPDATE 5 PM TUESDAY

Just a few updates for the upcoming storm, with a more comprehensive update coming Wednesday morning.

The National Weather Service office in Albany, New York has issued a winter storm watch for the two southernmost counties of Vermont and parts of the southern Adirondacks from Thursday night through Saturday morning.

The watch says that around 7 inches of snow is possible (but not definite!) during that time. 

Further north, the National Weather Service in South Burlington has not issued any watches or advisories for the possible upcoming storm.

That's a wise decision, in my opinion.  It does look more likely that far southern Vermont could see some fairly heavy snow out of this. The uncertainty is much greater further north, so the NWS in South Burlington decided to wait and look at further forecast updates and data.

We still don't know how far the initial thump of snow will make it to the north on Friday morning, if it develops at all. Temperatures are marginal, too.   

Computer models late this afternoon were still disagreeing if the main nor'easter would veer too far of the coast to give us a good thump of snow, or whether it would come closer, giving us at least a shot of a decent accumulation.

Whatever snow falls looks like it will be fairly wet and heavy, so power outages could be a problem if it snows hard anywhere. We'll have to keep an eye on that. 

Any snow that does fall has a good chance of sticking around to give us a white Christmas. All the long range forecast suggest colder than normal weather between now and after Christmas. 

Meanwhile, rough weather is ongoing late this afternoon in eastern Texas and Louisiana. Several tornadoes have already touched down, doing damage in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and temporarily shutting down the Dallas-Fort Worth airport. 

If anything, the tornadic storms seem to be intensifying somewhat as of 5 p.m. as they get ready to exit eastern Texas and enter Louisiana. So far, there's been reports of five injuries. Again, more on this tomorrow.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 

Amid all the anticipation of a possible winter storm here in New England coming this Friday, the parent system that could trigger that potential storm is today causing lots of issues and dangers in the middle of the nation.  

I'll get into the latest thinking for Vermont in a bit, but it is worth noting how menacing the weather is in parts of the South and the Midwest.

As of early this morning, a line of supercell thunderstorms was approaching the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area. Some of these storms carried tornado warnings, and at least one tornado was confirmed, based on radar images of debris being lifted in the air not far from Weatherford, Texas.

A tornado already caused damage in Wayne, Oklahoma last night. The tornado threat will only increase during the day as the system moves into eastern Texas and Louisiana. 

Further north, parts of eastern South Dakota, southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa are dealing with a gusty, nasty ice storm this morning. Roads are closed and people are worried about power outages.

Meanwhile, a big area comprising western and central South Dakota, western Nebraska and parts of eastern Wyoming are in the throes of a blizzard today. 

I'm describing all this bad weather far off to our west to illustrate that the energy headed our way has the potential to spin up a pretty good storm for us. Of course the question remains: Will it actually happen?

And if anything happens, exactly what?

The answers aren't much clearer on this than they were yesterday, but we're trying. 

Everyone's pretty sure a new storm will spin off from the parent one over the Midwest. The new storm will gather strength over the Mid-Atlantic States Thursday night and head toward the northeast.

Will it hug the coast or go further offshore once it's near New England?  There's still a fair amount of disagreement on that.

As the National Weather Service office in South Burlington describes it, the American computer models take the bulk of the storm offshore. That would cheat us out of the heavier precipitation, and we'd get a fairly long period of light snow. There's be accumulation, but it wouldn't be anything huge.

The European and other models take the storm right along the coast in New England. That would put Vermont in a sweeter spot for a decent thump of snow. The storm would be moving right along, so the heavier stuff wouldn't last long, but at least we'd get several hours of dumping, followed by a day or two of light snow and flurries, which would be icing on the cake, so to speak. 

Another question, still not resolved from yesterday, is how much warm air sneaks in? If the storm comes right up the coast, the initial thump of precipitation would probably be snow. That would come along Friday morning. But it's possible things could go over to light rain during the day Friday, especially in the valleys. 

Afterwards, for Friday night and Saturday, any rain or mix would go back to snow. It's hard to say how much snow would hit Friday night and Saturday. Could be little or nothing, could be a few inches. Stay tuned. 

For planning purposes, I'd start thinking about a potential iffy commute Friday morning. And I'd expect some inclement weather from Friday afternoon into Sunday. 

In the meantime,  you'll see meteorologists make some changes to the scenarios I just described. More data will come in, and that will help meteorologists refine forecasts over the next couple of days. 

These kinds of storms always bring some sort of surprise. Expect the unexpected with this one. 

Before we even get there, we have to deal with a couple minor issues. 

For one, it's cold out this morning. Nothing extreme for December, but almost all of us were in the single digits as dawn broke. A fewer colder hollows hit or got a little below zero. It was the coldest morning so far this winter, but of course even colder weather will come later this winter. 

A strong storm off the coast of Nova Scotia will throw a weather disturbance back toward New England tonight. Northern Vermont stands to receive some scattered but pretty good snow showers during the first half of tonight. Some places could pick up an inch or two.

A cold gusty day follows tomorrow, followed by a warmer, calmer Thursday before the iffy nor'easter arrives Friday. 

What We Know About The Possible Nor'easter On Friday (And Other Storminess)

A little brighter, a little whiter after the 1.2 inches of snow
we received in St Albans, Vermont yesterday and last night

 It's a little whiter, a little brighter and little ore in keeping with the holiday season out there this morning as many of us have received an inch or so of snow, pretty much in line with previous forecasts.

Early indications are a few places over-performed slightly. I received 1.2 inches of snow in St. Albans, a place where forecasters had called for less than an inch. 

There are still some slick spots on the roads this morning, so you might want to give yourself a bit of extra time to get to work today. I have heard the state truck going back and forth by my house before dawn this morning

We have a fairly wintry week coming up, punctuated by a possible nor'easter toward Friday. We might, or might not get a bunch of snow out of it. But things are starting to come together to at least give Vermont the possibility of a decent dump. 

We'll explain more in just a sec, but we have the early and mid part of the week to get through, too.

Today and most of tomorrow will be pretty quiet and cold with temperatures remaining below freezing.

Tuesday night, we'll have an echo of sorts of the weak storm we had yesterday and last night. That weak storm will turn into a pretty strong nor'easter off the coast of Nova Scotia tonight and Tuesday. That, in turn, will swing a cold front down from that northeast, setting off more snow showers Tuesday night. 

We could squeeze out another inch of snow out of that. Then we'll have a windy, cold day Wednesday, then a quiet one Thursday in anticipation of the possible storm.

THE SET UP:

This is a coast to coast storm for the United States. The system dumped feet of snow in California's Sierra Nevada range. That's a good thing, since they need that winter accumulation. Even if the deep snow blocked highways through those mountains. 

The storm is now beginning to cross the Rocky Mountains, and will start to reorganize in eastern Colorado later today and tomorrow. 

One of many possible weather map scenarios for a storm
that might affect us in Vermont on Friday.

This will make a widespread blizzard blossom in parts of Wyoming, Nebraska and South Dakota. Mixed precipitation and dangerous ice accumulations could be a problem Tuesday in the eastern Dakotas.

On the warm side of the storm, a couple tornadoes might spin up in western Kansas today, which is pretty far north and west for that kind of thing this time of year. The storm poses a greater threat of spitting out tornadoes in and around Louisiana tomorrow, so forecasters will need to keep an eye out for that.

The storm system will get quite strong in the northern Plains during the first half of this week,  then start to slowly weaken over the western Great Lakes.  Its cold front will zoom out ahead of it. On Thursday, the front will be nearing the Mid-Atlantic states, with a warm front extending east from it in that general region.

Here's where it starts to get interesting for us Vermonters. A storm will start to form where the cold and warm front intersect. That storm will strengthen as it moves up the coast. That weakening parent storm in the Great Lakes will tend to steer the new system up the coast, rather than out to sea. 

This all means there's a rising chance of a decent dump of, well, something, on Vermont Friday into Saturday.  It's not a slam dunk. Every model run gives a slightly different scenario. The storm could still veer out to sea, but for now, it looks close enough to give us a shot at a noticeable storm.

If the storm goes right along the coast, but not too far inland, that sets Vermont up for a good snowstorm. At least on paper. 

With the storm more than four days away, we have lots of questions, with no answers yet:

Will warm air get pulled into the storm and turn snow into rain or a mix? If so, where in Vermont might that happen?  If it does happen, will it melt all the snow, or turn it into an icy mess, or have no effect at all?

If this is going to be snowstorm, where will the heaviest snow fall?  Depending upon the track of the storm, the deepest snow could focus in southeastern Vermont, or further north and west. 

Will the snow be light and fluffy or heavy and wet?  Heavy and wet would be a problem if there's a lot of it, since it would bring down trees and power lines.

What exactly is the timing of this thing?  We know it'll be in the Friday and Saturday range, but will the storm impact the commutes on Friday? If so, morning or evening?

These questions and others will gradually get answered and refined as we get closer to the timing of the storm.

If we do end up receiving a decent dump of snow, chances are it will last through Christmas.  It seems like we'll have mostly chi