New Study Says Critical Ocean Current Called AMOC Is Amok Due To Climate Change; Could Cause Big Danger

The warm ocean current abbreviated as AMOC 
brings warmer conditions to western Europe in the
winter. If it collapses, winters in parts of
that continent could abruptly turn much
colder in the winter, despite the warming
effects of climate change. 

 I've seen a lot of back and forth in recent years concerning a critical ocean current in the Atlantic Ocean that basically keeps us living the life as we know it.  

If that current collapses, Very Big Deal bad things would happen. 

So, the latest piece of news is not what I wanted to hear. 

As Politico.eu reports:

"The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the system that forms part of the Gulf Stream -an Atlantic Ocean current that keeps Europe from becoming frigid - could start shutting down in the 2060s as a result of climate change, according to a study by Utrecht University researchers published this week."

AMOC keeps Europe warm, especially in the winter, by bringing warmth and moisture from the tropics. Paris, France is at about the same latitude as International Falls, Minnesota. 

International Falls does not benefit from AMOC so normal January high and low temperatures there are minus 2 and 16 above Fahrenheit.  

Normal January weather brings lows in the mid 30s Fahrenheit and highs in the mid-40s. 

Now imagine all of western Europe turning into an icebox like northern Minnesota.  It would be an incredibly sudden,  devastating change. No region can withstand an immediate change in climate that abrupt. 

The world is indeed warming under the force of climate change, but it can create some strange, cold spots as longterm atmospheric and oceanic patterns break down. 

An AMOC shutdown would also cause severe summertime European droughts. 

Here in the United States, an AMOC  collapse event would also abruptly raise sea levels along the U.S. East Coast by as much as 50 centimeters, or nearly 20 inches. 

The Dutch study uses 25 different climate models found that a rise in global temperatures of around 2.7 degrees Celsius (around  5 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels could get the AMOC to start collapsing around 2063. 

We're already about halfway there, as the world is already 1.3 degrees hotter than those pre-industrial levels. The rate of global temperature increase is accelerating, so time is of the essence. 

Under scenarios in which the global temperature rise by 4 degrees Celsius or more the AMOC shutdown would arrive in around 2055. Warming that fast is considering quite unlikely, but 2.7 degrees is solidly in the realm of possibility at the rate we're going.

This new study is a departure from previous studies, which had suggested an AMOC shutdown is unlikely. 

One study that came out late last year suggest AMOC was more stable and was unlikely to entire collapse before 2100 but could definitely weaken, which would have some effect on Europe's climate. 

I'm sure there will be more science and research regarding the AMOC.  I don't think we have a perfect answer for what's going to happen. But something will, eventually, and it won't be pretty.