Scattered Vermont Frost This Morning; Even Colder Sunday Morning

Sensitive plants covered up on my St. Albans, Vermont
deck this morning as temperatures bottomed out
at 34 degrees. It should be just as cold or even a
little colder early Sunday morning, so
we'll keep those sheets handy. 

As expected, patchy frost and freezes greeted many of us Vermonters at dawn today. Low temperatures across the state were in the 30s pretty much everywhere. With the exception of some 40s right near Lake Champlain.  

That was definitely cold enough for a frost in many places. Even if it was 33 or 34 where you are,  there might well have been frost. 

Temperatures are usually measured about five feet off the ground. It often is a couple degrees colder when you get down at lawn level). 

Keep those sheets and covers handy for your outdoor plants. It's probably going to be even colder overnight tonight and early Sunday morning. 

Before we get to tonight's chill, today will be delightful.  Though with this horrible drought, I wouldn't have minded a rainy Saturday.  Instead, it'll be a crisp fall day, with bright blue skies, clean, dry air, and sunshine bringing temperatures up into the 60s. Perfect September weather, really. 

So, do you hike, do your apple picking, do your Emergency Frost Harvest in your garden (I picked something like 12 cucumbers yesterday)  and enjoy the day

You'll notice it getting colder quickly the minute the sun goes down. 

TONIGHT'S FROST/FREEZE

The National Weather Service in South Burlington says that basically, if you live five miles or more away from Lake Champlain,  expect a frost by Sunday morning. There might be couple exceptions to the rule, but they should be pretty few and far between. 

There's also a slight chance a faint southeast breeze might save the night in parts of the Champlain Valley, but don't count on it! I'd cover your outdoor plants if you want to save them. If it doesn't ultimately frost, then so what, right?

The frost advisories that were in effect for much of central and northern Vermont this morning are being expanded to cover all of Vermont tonight except the immediate shores of Lake Champlain. Grand Isle County is the only region in the state not covered by the frost advisory.

The morning, a freeze warning for actual temperatures below 32 degrees covered only Essex County in Vermont in the extreme Northeast Kingdom.  The Adirondacks and far northern New Hampshire were also under this morning's freeze warning. 

Overnight and Sunday morning, the freeze warning will cover much more real estate, covering roughly everything along and east of the Green Mountains and along and north of Route 2. 

Part of the reason why it will be so cold tonight is the drought. Moisture in the air would keep temperatures a couple degrees warmer. Some moisture would have come from wet soils and that sort of thing.  But since everything is so parched, there's little moisture, so it will get colder.

The other ingredients for tonight's added chill is temperatures this afternoon will be a little cooler than on Friday. So the starting point is lower when the temperatures start to drop this evening. The air is even drier than it was Friday, so that will allow readings to crash pretty hard. And the entire overnight will be clear and calm, with no winds or clouds to halt the drop in temperatures.  

COLD IN PERSPECTIVE

This degree of chill in a Vermont mid-September isn't the least bit odd.  It might seem that way given the balmy Septembers we've had in most recent years. Thanks, climate change. 

Temperatures Sunday morning will not come close to any record lows. Burlington's record low Sunday is 29, and the forecast minimum temperature tomorrow is in the mid-30s. The record low Sunday in Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury is 26 degrees.  Lows in those three communities early Sunday are expected to be around 30 degrees.  

The first freeze of the season in Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury is, on average between October 2 and 4 or so.  So if it's under 32 degrees Sunday morning, the first autumn freeze will be earlier than average this year.

But it won't be close to record early by any means. Freezes have happened as early as September 8 in Rutland, September 5 in Montpelier and September 13 in St. Johnsbury. Burlington's earliest freeze was on September 13, 1964.  It's not expected to get to 32 degrees there tonight. 

BIG WARMUP, DROUGHT STAYS

The September cold spell will end dramatically during the day Sunday. Temperatures will rocket upward into the low or even mid 70s by afternoon. That's a pretty incredible 12-hour rise in temperatures. 

The frost risk will disappear for about a week at least, as temperatures stay at or above normal through the upcoming week. 

There are some chances of showers coming up, but the expected rainfall looks pretty lame at this point. Enough rain could fall Tuesday to temporarily tamp down the forest fire danger for a couple or few days, but that's it. 

As of now, early guesses are we might get a quarter inch or so of rain. That won't be nearly enough to get ground water back in gear, or noticeably raise water levels in rivers and lakes. 

The overall weather pattern continues to feature a series of dry high pressure systems bursting into New England, with each one stopping to linger overhead for at least a couple days. I don't see any soaking rains going into early October. And probably beyond. 

The drought is probably already the worst I've seen in my 60+ years in Vermont. And it looks like it will probably get even worse before it gets better.  ,