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| As pot this morning, Hurricane Humberto to the right is a classic, intense hurricane. Meanwhile, that elongated cluster of clouds in eastern Cuba and the Bahamas will become Tropical Storm Imelda, Click on this photo to make it bigger and easier to see. |
The news is cautiously optimistic for the Carolinas as early hints take what will be Imelda a little further offshore than previously forecast.
The reason: Hurricane Humberto is by far the dominant one in this relationship. It achieved Category 5 status Saturday with top winds of 160 mph. Category 5s used to be relatively rare, but they seem to have gotten more common.
Hotter water brought on by climate change is powering up many more hurricanes to Category 5 than we used to see.
This hasn't been a particularly busy Atlantic hurricane season so far, and yet this is the second Category 5 of the year. Hurricane Erin reached that status in August.
Humberto was marginally weaker early this morning with top winds of 155 mph, so still wicked powerful.
Since Humberto is so strong, compared to relatively weak Imelda, it will have more influence over the situation. Imelda is still forecast to move northward through the Bahamas parallel to the Florida east coast today, through Monday into Tuesday.
Imelda didn't strengthen into a tropical storm Saturday as some forecasts indicated. But it was getting better organized just off the northeast coast of Cuba early this morning so today will be the dawn of Tropical Storm Imelda. I guess she didn't want to be a Saturday baby or something.
The water north of Cuba and toward the Bahamas is quite warm, and that will fuel Imelda. Meteorologists think it will manage to become a hurricane by around late Monday night or Tuesday morning.
Imelda will still be weaker than big bad Humberto, though. probably will manage to become a hurricane by around late Monday night or Tuesday morning. Between the influence of Humberto and the fact a weather disturbance over the interior southeastern United States won't be able to draw Imelda toward the coast, it's looking a bit safer for the Carolinas, and Georgia, and even Florida for that matter.
Instead, the best guess is by midweek, Imelda will slow down, and take a turn to the northeast, and follow big Humberto into the north Atlantic, where both will eventually die in the cold water up there.
That's not to say the Southeast coast is completely out of the woods. A few forecasts still bring Imelda close to or even on the coast, which would be a mess, but most keep it offshore.
Even if forecast is accurate and Imelda lingers offshore, it will probably come close enough to send heavy rain bands and gusty winds into coastal areas of South Carolina and parts of North Carolina. And maybe Georgia and coastal Florida.
Imelda could also bring some storm surges and rough seas to the Southeast coastline. Because it will be moving so slowly, it'll have a lot of time to pound and erode the beaches.
Plus, remember, Humberto is still out there and is a monster. Much like Erin in August, it will send swells and rough surf to the entire East Coast to augment what Imelda plans to do.
We might be lucking out with our unfriendly couple Humberto and Imelda in that the U.S. avoids another direct hit by a hurricane. The two storms will cause trouble for us, but thankfully, probably no cataclysm. We don't need another one.
No guarantees, but it's possible a hurricane might not make landfall in the United States this year. It's slightly past the peak of hurricane season, and there's plenty of time for tropical trouble in October. But so far, unlike the devastation of recent years, the U.S. might get a break from hurricanes.
With all the other weather and climate disasters this year - and there has been many of them - along with the nation's political instability, we'll take any break we can.
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