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| From AccuWeather, paths of famous New England hurricanes. Click on the map to make it bigger and easier to read. New England is overdue for a hurricane. The last one to strike the region was Hurricane Bob in August, 1991. |
And Florida should be nervous, given the spate of horrible hurricanes they've had in recent years. They've actually been hit more frequently and harder than average since about 2017.
As awful as the hurricanes have been, at least Floridians now know the drill. They know how to prepare, when and how to evacuate and how to protect property to the extent they can.
But hurricanes can and have hit every part of the U.S. coast from Brownsville, Texas to Eastport Maine. So yeah, we're at risk here in New England.
However, we've been blessed by a hurricane drought. (Given the current rainfall drought, it's nice to talk about a drought that is actually beneficial)
The last time a hurricane made landfall in New England was Hurricane Bob in 1991. It made landfall in Rhode Island that year, causing $1.5 billion in damage at the time. That's equivalent to about $3.5 billion in today's dollars.
The last Category 3 hurricane to hit New England's Carol on August 31, 1954,
"Typically, every 15 to 20 years on average, a hurricane will strike New Jersey on northward into southern New England. A major hurricane - so that's Category 3 or higher - for the Northeast is every 60 to 70 years or so," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva explained."
HURRICANE HISTORY
The worst hurricane on record in New England was the Big One in 1938 which raced northwestward from Long Island and the central coast of Connecticut to west of Burlington.
Its strength and extremely rapid forward speed brought incredible winds and storm surges that killed upwards of 700 people, caused immense coastal destruction and toppled an estimated 10 percent of all the trees in New England. The Vermont maple sugar industry was devastated.
If the Great Hurricane of 1938 came through today, it would cause as much as $10 billion in damage.
There was a big spate of hurricanes and tropical storms between 1954 and 1960. Besides Carol, Hurricane Edna made landfall on Cape Cod on August 24. Hurricane Hazel made landfall on the South Carolina/North Carolina border in October of that year and raced to Toronto, Canada causing a lot of damage there. Hazel caused wind gusts of over 70 mph in western Vermont.
Hurricanes Connie and Diane in 1955 had fallen to below hurricane status by the time they got near New England, but they causes one of the worst floods on record in and around Connecticut. Then in 1960 Hurricane Donna swept through New England.
Since then, there's not been much. The only other full-blown hurricane beside Bob to hit New England after Donna was Hurricane Gloria in 1985.
NEW ENGLAND HURRICANE HOW-TO
As AccuWeather explains, the weather setup has to be a sort of Goldilocks situation, at least from the hurricane's perspective. A series of weather systems must line up perfectly to draw a hurricane to New England, which is why they're so rare.
First, you need a Bermuda High of just the right strength. Too weak and the hurricane passes northward harmlessly well off the East Coast. If the Bermuda High is too strong, the hurricane will head toward Florida or the Gulf Coast.
To get a New England hurricane, you also need a dip in the jet stream, ideally along the west slopes of the Appalachians or something very close to that. You also need a strong high pressure system in eastern Canada to block the storm from heading out to sea and directing it toward New England instead.
Hurricanes also need warm water to survive. The water off the Northeast coast is not warm enough to support hurricanes. So a New England hurricane has to be racing northward to reach us so that it does not have time to weaken much over the colder water.
EX-HURRICANES, RECENT CLOSE MISSES
As we well know in Vermont, it doesn't take a full-blown hurricane to cause huge problems for us. Hurricane Irene had been reduced to a tropical storm by the time it reached New England in August, 2011, but it caused one of the worst floods in Vermont history.
Climate change is probably making ex-hurricanes more dangerous in Vermont and New England, and is increasing the chances an actually hurricane could hit us.
A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture. So when the wet remnants of a hurricane reach us, they can dump more rain than they might have decades ago. For instance, the remnants of Beryl teamed up with a stalled weather front in July, 2024 to cause the severe flooding that month in Vermont.
Climate change is heating the oceans off the East Coast. If a hurricane encounters the perfect weather conditions needed to force it to a New England landfall, the water it passes over would be warmer than it was decades ago. That would slow the pace of the hurricane's weakening and could lead to a stronger storm striking the region.
Warm ocean waters also seem to be leading to an increase in stronger hurricanes down in the tropics. So if a hurricane starts out stronger when it's, say, off the coast of Florida, chances are it would be stronger by the time it reaches New England.
Hurricane Erin in August, which reached Category 5 strength out in the open Atlantic, is an example of this. The Bermuda High was weak enough to allow Erin to pass far off the East Coast, so the only effect it had on New England was rough surf and beach erosion.
It does seem like tropical storms and former tropical storms are targeting New England lately. Besides the remnants of Beryl, we had the remnants of Hurricane Debby in August, 2024. Debby caused some serious flooding in New York and Quebec, and some damaging winds here in Vermont.
Tropical Storm Henri made landfall in Rhode Island in August, 2021, causing flooding, wind damage and power outages. Tropical Storm Isaias passed right over Vermont in August, 2020, but its heavy rain came amid a drought, so flooding was minor and wind damage was minimal.
CURRENT SITUATION
The tropical Atlantic is oddly quiet today, especially since it is the peak of hurricane season. A disturbance in the central Atlantic Ocean has become much less likely to develop into a hurricane anytime soon.
But things could get going anytime between now and November. If Vermont and the rest of New England avoids tropical trouble this year, great. But sooner or later, at least parts of the region will have a hurricane. It's only a matter of time.
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