Live Blog: Henri Floods New England, New York, New Jersey, PA

9:15 pm EDT Sunday

I'm going to call it a night already and then revive this first thing in the morning. The heaviest rain and the biggest flood threat has shifted west, at least for the overnight, into southern New York, northern New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.

When the remains of Henri reverse course back toward the east tomorrow, the threat of flooding in southern Vermont would come back. As I noted numerous times, this is a weird, weird storm so I don't believe anything until I see it.  

Expect surprises, good or bad.  But at least for us in Vermont so far, this has been a piece of cake. Let that continue, please.

8:12 pm EDT Sunday

Decayed outer rain band of Tropical Storm Henri made it 
all the way up to St. Albans, in northwestern Vermont
this evening, creating this lovely rainbow. 
You can sort of see a second rainbow to the righ

I don't want to minimize the severity of the flooding and the danger from Henri occurring now, mostly in southern New York and New Jersey and northeastern Pennsylvania.  

But you can tell from these posts that from my perch in St. Albans, Vermont, the fact that the tropics have been brought north to me, I'm absolutely astounded by the skies.

Everything I've seen today is surely just typical for Caribbean islands, but since we don't ever get that type of thing up here in Vermont, it's just wonderful, to be honest.

I was fascinated by the deep blue tropical skies. the balmy east winds that are just like tropical trade winds, and the delicate clouds of Henri's dying rain bands.

It got even better at sunset tonight in St. Albans, Vermont.  A dying Henri rain band approaching from the east built a spectacular rainbow. Almost all the rain was aloft. All we got was a sprinkle. But that evening rainbow just made me happy.  You can see why in the photo. 

8:06 pm EDT Sunday

So interesting, at least for now, that the heavy rains with Henri are movin so far west that southern Vermont is in the clear, at least for now. Connecticut, where I thought the worst of the flooding might happen is in the clear at this hour too.

The worst rains of Henri are now in the Catskills and in the southern Hudson Valley and northern New Jersey. This seems to be the place that will get the worst flooding from Henri.  Up to eight inches of rain are in the forecast for those areas I just described.

I'm not sure how things will evolve tomorrow as the remains of Henri turn around and head back east. I knew this would be a weird, weird, system.  It's even weirder than I imagines.

6:27 pm EDT Sunday

This is just a weather nerd geeking out. The pretty, rather unstable looking clouds I just took a photo of over St. Albans, Vermont are the decayed remnant of an initial rain band with Tropical Storm Henri.  

On the edges of a tropical storm or hurricane, you get outer bands of rough weather, They come in, and you get strong, gusty winds and torrential rains, then they move on.  

Subsequent bands get worse and worse until you are in the teeth of a dangerous hurricane.

The remains of the outer rain bands of Henri obviously petered out by the time they got to northwest Vermont.  It was still interesting though that when these clouds arrived, the wind picked up from the east in the 10-20 mph range

Until this, the winds had been calm all day  These breezes were certainly welcome on this humid evening. But they are also a ghost of what had been a hurricane. 

6:00 pm EDT Sunday

Short term at least, highest flash flood risk is in extreme northeast Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and southeastern New York. 

5:55 pm EDT Sunday

I don't want to minimize things, especially because former tropical systems always surprise with local downpours, but I'm a LITTLE less worried about southern Vermont. Keep your guard up though!  With tropical air like this, nasty, horrible flash flooding is always possible!  At least so far we are far, far, far short of re-living Tropical Storm Irene.

5:16 pm EDT Sunday

As of 5 p.m., Tropical Storm Henri's center was 20 miles southeast of Hartford, Connecticut. Not that it matters anymore. Flood-producing rains continue mostly west of its center. 

5:13 pm EDT Sunday

Some impressive Henri-related rainfall totals already coming in. As of late this afternoon:

36 hours. Some specific rainfall reports: Jamesburg NJ 8.36" Brooklyn Heights NY 7.82" Plainsboro NJ 7.50" Hopewell NJ 6.69" Central Park 6.35" Surf City NJ 5.81" JFK 4.36" Ardmore PA 4.25" Groton CT 2.59"

4:30 pm EDT Sunday

Can I just say how beautifully clean and blue the sky over St. Albans, Vermont is right now in the air directly from the tropics? 

 It's such a lovely, brief reprieve from the hazy, smoky air we've had most of the summer from western forest fires, and a relief from that smoky, hazy air which will surely return and last for the next month or two?  

The beautiful, deep blue is almost, but not quite, worth the extreme humidity we're enduring. 

4:00 pm EDT Sunday

In their late afternoon forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington is really hedging their bets, which is very, very wise. 

Here's a quote from the discussion:

"We continue to remain on the northern edge of a sharp north to south precip gradient, which makes for a challenging forecast. It's always extremely challenging to pinpoint exact locations of qpf associated with a slow moving, weakening tropical system and convection. This becomes a nowcasting type of scenario on Monday."

So, some translations:

QPF is expected  precipitation. Convection is showers and thunderstorms. Nowcasting is updating localized forecasts pretty much minute by minute just before an event actually happens. 

In other words, if you're in a flood prone area, it's best to keep up with weather updates through the day Monday.

My takeaway, anyway, from this logic is there is the potential for flash flooding in south central and central Vermont, but we really won't know for sure until we see how things play out during the day on Monday/.

Scenarios range from no biggie to HOLY CRAP! in some localized spots.  Things might be manageable in most places, but could get out of control in a handful of others. Or not.

Far northern Vermont looks rather safe at this point.

However, I've been most worried about far southern Vermont right along, and that continues to be the cross that we bear. 

As of late this afternoon, there was already a flood advisory in far southern Vermont, as some bands of torrential rains have already blown through the southern tip of Vermont.

Weather radar shows a really, really nasty band of torrential rain moving east to west across far southern Vermont after 4 p.m.

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The question now is, with Henri moving slowly to the northwest, then expected to turn east, will torrential rain linger over Vermont's southernmost two counties well into Monday? Definitely a tricky forecast.

To me, it looks like far southern Vermont is on the edge of the heaviest, scariest downpours. I'm not sure if this will be a so-so flash flood down there or something really awful.  Bennington and Windham  counties are definitely the worry spot of Vermont tonight and tomorrow. Fingers crossed! 

 

3:55 pm EDT Sunday

Interesting updates coming in now from National Weather Service office in South Burlington. Just a very slight chance of rain in northwest Vermont through this event.  Even central Vermont is downgraded to a 50-50 shot with perhaps locally heavy rain in spots.  If this trend continues, this will be a strictly southern Vermont event, which is the way this summer has been.

3:52 p.m. EDT Sunday

Not important except to weather geeks, but interesting happenings in the sky in northwest Vermont now.  Band of clouds associated with Henri coming in from the east. The sky over us had been cluttered by towering cumulus, but those are evaporating in advance of cloud band. Temporarily most clear and hot and humid over St. Albans, Vermont now

3:34 p.m. EDT Sunday

NYC Central Park, NYC in general just can't catch a break from Henri. After 4.45 inches of rain last night, another 1.31 inches so far this afternoon and still raining heavily. BTW, the 1.94 inches in one hour in Central Park last night was the most rain in one hour in NYC history. 

3:28 pm EDT Sunday

Classic New England Tropical Storm conditions, Windsor Locks, CT, just north of Hartford, winds gusting to 41 mph; 1.04 in just the past hour.  No surprise that flash flood warning in effect there. 

3:01 pm. EDT Sunday

While southern New England in the muggy low 70s under heavy Henri rains, tropical heat continues in northern Vermont. At 3 p.m. Burlington at 88 degrees, heat index 93 

2:53 pm EDT Sunday

First tropical shower of the day in northern Vermont seems to have formed northwest of St. Albans, Vermont.  I don't think there will be too many of these today, but with tropical systems you never know.

This one moving very slowly toward the west, opposite of normal showers around Vermont.  It might or might develop into a very local downpour, but no biggie; just interesting, no real threat.  

2:51 pm. EDT Sunday

Nearly stationary rain band that produced up to 5 inches of rain in NYC area and northern New Jersey in association with Henri is still ongoing. Not as intense as last night, but it CANNOT be helping the flood situation in that area.

Rain bands with flash flooding often set up west or northwest of tropical systems. Thank goodness no sign of that so far in Vermont. 

2:30 pm EDT Sunday

As expected, Henri's forward speed slowing dramatically, raising risk of long lasting, flooding rains. Forward speed at 5 a.m this morning over water was 18 mph.  As of 2 p.m. down to half that. 

2:27 pm EDT Sunday.

Photo here  from Twitter shows it's pretty messy in Richmond, Rhode Island 

2:25 p.m: EDT Sunday

Here's a fun little tidbit: One of Tropical Storm Elsa's landfall was at Westerly, Rhode Island at 12:15 p.m on July 9.  Today, Tropical Storm Henri made landfall at Westerly, Rhode Island at 12:15 p.m. What are the chances?

2:20 p.m.

Getting somewhat cloudier in northern Vermont from Henri, which will temper the sun's intensity somewhat. Still wicked humid, and that won't change anytime soon.

1:40 p.m. EDT Sunday

New flash flood warning now around Hartford, CT as the worst of Henri's rains creep northward

1:25 p.m. EDT Sunday

The smoky haze over Vermont is gone and the sky is a 
beautiful deep blue.  That's not fresh Canadian air, though.
This is from the clean, but very humid deep tropics.
It's dangerously hot and humid north of Henri's clouds
in northern Vermont this afternoon.

You might have noticed today the wildfire haze and smoke that has plagued Vermont much of the summer is gone today.  

That's because Tropical Storm Henri has brought air straight from the tropics. The sky over Vermont is basically the same as the sky over, say Barbados.  

Don't let those deep blue skies with those pretty puffy clouds fool you.  That's not the refreshing blue sky normally get in Vermont this time of year right after a refreshing cold front from Canada.

It's still wicked humid and the heat index is dangerous if you're working outdoors today.  

For instance as of 1 p.m. Burlington, Vermont was 87 degrees with a heat index of 93.  NOT pleasant. Stay in air conditioning if you can, and don't overdo it with work our exercise outdoors. It can be dangerous!

1:13 p.m.: NECN reports 100,000 customers without power already 

First update: 12:52 p.m. EDT Sunday:

I'm going to keep a live blog going with occasionally, sometimes very frequent updates of Tropical Storm Henri.  

This will be full of updates, new forecasts, breaking news and other information to keep you abreast of this dangerous storm. 

Since this is a Vermont-based blog, it will focus a bit on the Green Mountain State, but of course there will be lots of information on how things unfold in the rest of the Northeast.

Please comment and ask questions as this live blog progresses. Also, follow me on Twitter at @mattalltradesb 

Tropical Storm Henri, now inland in southern New England, is
losing that tropical "look" in this satellite view early 
Sunday afternoon. Watch out though, inland flooding
from this thing is a big threat through Monday. 

Keep refreshing the URL on this blog to see the latest updates. 

Henri made landfall at around 12:15 p.m. today near Westerly, Rhode Island with top winds of 60 mph. Technically, landfall was really on Block Island, Rhode Island about an hour earlier, since Henri passed right over that chunk of rock south of the New England coastline. 

The winds were a bit weaker at landfall than many forecasts, so that might slightly limit the destruction to trees and power lines in Connecticut and Rhode Island. But still will be a lot of problems in that department. 

I"ve always known the real danger from Henri in the Northeast is the torrential rain and associated inland flooding that is and will occur.  We've only just begun with the flooding. 

Flash flood warnings are already flying in southern Connecticut and those warnings will migrate north and west as the afternoon goes on. 

Here in Vermont, the first heavy rain bands from Henri are crossing east to west across far southern Vermont.  These are not yet enough to set off any real flooding, that will come later.

Fingers crossed, the heaviest rain and the worst flooding might, just MIGHT stay just to the south and west of Vermont.  But everyone in central and southern Vermont should stay alert for flood warnings and flooding anytime between now and Monday evening. 

If you live in a flood prone area, have a plan to get out of Dodge very, very quickly. These will be flash floods, not something that comes on gradually.  The further south you go in Vermont, the greater the flood threat. 

For this afternoon, dry air aloft is helping to hold any showers at bay in central and northern Vermont. It's wicked humid near the surface, as you know, so there could be some brief pop up tropical showers here and there, but coverage will be scattered at best

at's a bit weaker of a landfall than anticipated