One More Awfully Hot Day In Vermont; Hurricane Threat In Gulf?

Another tropical dawn today over St. Albans, Vermont.

It's almost September, so the heat and humidity will

have to disappear at some point, right?

UPDATE: 4:00 pm. THURSDAY

Heat indexes, as expected, are in the upper 90s this afternoon in the Champlain Valley of Vermont. So it's awful. Actual temperatures are in the low 90s in the Champlain Valley, and in the upper 80s elsewhere

On the bright side, this will very, very likely be the hottest day until next summer. 

As expected, thunderstorms are few and far between this afternoon. A layer of warm air overhead is preventing the tall clouds you need for thunderstorms to really take off

Every once in awhile, thunderstorms can break that "cap" and really develop. So the rest of the day and evening in Vermont will feature few thunderstorms, but a few of the ones that do develop could get strong very quickly. One such storm abruptly developed northeast of Middlebury at mid afternoon, and it was probably causing a pocket of gusty winds and torrential downpours.

The few storms that are forming aren't moving forward all that fast, so there could be small pockets of flash flooding with these. 

That disturbance in the Caribbean I mentioned this morning has developed into a tropical depression, and will grow into a tropical storm pretty much any minute from now. It still looks like a very bad threat to somewhere on the U.S Gulf Coast by around Sunday. 

More on that in tomorrow's post

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

 

As noted yesterday, it's been awfully hot and humid in Vermont for over a week now, and today will offer absolutely no relief. Unless you count an isolated thunderstorm or two, which will only add to the humidity.  

There is still a cold front in the schedule, though, and you'll really feel the difference tomorrow. 

Yesterday actually felt a little better than it has been lately because, despite temperatures that reached 90 in some spots, a bit of drier air was able to mix down from aloft during the afternoon.

Dew points went into the low 60s, which is still a little humid, but not nearly as bad as dew points of near 70, which has been the case lately.

Unfortunately, the dew points are back up, and there's no drier air a few thousand feet above us to mix down when the sun shines strongly this afternoon.  Heat advisories are up for the broader valleys of Vermont today, as it'll feel like its in the mid or upper 90s. 

The actual temperatures will be well into the 80s to near 90.  If Burlington makes it to 90 today, we'll have an official heat wave, meaning three days in a row will have gotten to 90 degrees or more. 

Because there is a cold front lurking to our north, there will be enough instability to fire off some thunderstorms this afternoon.  It's not an ideal set up for storms, so there will be hit and miss, mostly miss.

A few spots could get torrential downpours but a lot of places will get nothing, or at least very little rain.

You'll go to bed tonight in yet another muggy, icky evening, but changes will be afoot as you try to sleep.

That cold front will slip down from Canada in the pre-dawn hours with little fanfare.   Especially in northern Vermont, you'll notice a change in the air when you wake up, and that relief will fully engulf the state during the day. It will feel awesome. Sunny, breezy, much cooler and the long period of high humidity will be gone at last.

Or will it?

First the bad news. It's going to quickly get wicked humid again.  You might notice it a little later Saturday and it will get worse Sunday and even more awful Monday.

Then the good news. The next bout of oppressive weather won't last so long.  As it stands now, the humidity will get whisked away by another cold front or cold fronts. 

Also, we're needing the rain again in northern Vermont.  The weekend and early next week look unsettled, on top of all that humidity. That means there will be a good chance of on and off showers Saturday through Monday.

HURRICANE FEARS

As of this writing early this Thursday morning, there were not full-blown tropical storms or hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic Ocean, but that seems destined to change and soon.

I usually don't like to hype a big storm before it forms and before I think I know where it's going.

However, there's so much agreement among the computer models that a hurricane is targeting the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the U.S. Gulf Coast that I have to say something.  There was a disturbance south of Jamaica this morning that was getting better organized, and pretty quickly at that.

It's expected to move northwest toward the Gulf of Mexico.  It also appears as if atmospheric conditions are ripe enough to organize this thing into a tropical storm, then probably a hurricane. 

The water in the Gulf of Mexico is pretty much as hot as it can get.  Hot water is jet fuel for hurricanes, so if there is not much in the way of strong upper level winds to tear a nascent hurricane apart, there's a chance this thing could turn into a monster.

We don't know where this possible hurricane will make landfall, but Texas and Louisiana could well be under the gun. 

Some of the models bring this wannabe hurricane into southwestern Louisiana as a powerhouse. Which would be incredibly bad since that region was devastated by Hurricanes Laura and Delta last year. Plus that region's health care network is next to collapsing under the weight of surging coronavirus cases.

A big weather disaster would just be beyond awful.

Since this wannabe hurricane hasn't even formed yet, big changes are coming in the forecast for this thing? Will it interact with land and weaken as a result?  Will it take full advantage of the hot water in the Gulf of Mexico and turn into something particularly dangerous?  Where will it hit land? At this stage, it could be Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi or Alabama.

Stay tuned.