Friday Evening Henri Update: Still Weird, Still Uncertain

Henri continuing to organize off the southeast US 
coast Friday afternoon. It remains a big threat 
for New England. 

Henri, as of 5 p.m. today, continues to menace New England.  Vermont remains in the danger zone, especially for the risk of inland flooding. 

Especially in southern Vermont.

The late afternoon updates keep things nearly the same as this morning, though the forecast track keeps nudging toward the west. 

Of course, where Henri lands and where it goes after it makes landfall has a huge impact on what will happen in Vermont.

The more westward track is potential bad news for us here in Vermont.  Henri could come ashore as far left as near New York City or even northern New Jersey. 

The consensus is for it to come ashore around Connecticut, and move as far northwest as Albany, New York before taking a sharp right hand turn toward Maine. 

That track, and Henri's expected slow forward pace, makes me pretty worried about this storm. The latest official National Hurricane Center storm track has Henri over the Connecticut/Massachusetts border at around 2 a.m. Monday, and only moves it to about Brattleboro by 2 p.m. Monday. That's a lot of time to dump a lot of rain.

Do note that the forecast track WILL change, but you get the idea. This is potentially horrible for southwestern New England.  

 Its winds would probably diminish quickly, but the fact that it won't get out of New England or even New York any time fast means torrential downpours would linger longer than in a "normal" tropical storm.

That could mean someone - I don't know who - could receive incredible amounts of rain on saturated ground. Not to scare anyone, but some forecasts call for six or more inches of rain somewhere in southern New England, southern New York or even southern Vermont. 

That would unleash a much worse than usual flood on wherever it hits.  For what it's worth, flood forecasts as of late this afternoon put the worst of it in Connecticut and western Massachusetts, but the risk does extend into the southeastern third of Vermont. At least for now.

As noted above, forecasts are likely to change, but I don't know if it will get better or get worse. 

Northern Vermont still looks to escape the worst of it, but questions still remain as to where the heaviest rain will fall. 

This is just a quick Friday evening update. I'll  have more details and more updates tomorrow morning.