Oligarchs' Horrible Plan To Turn Our Nights Into Never-Ending Days

Tech companies want to launch a bunch of satellites that
would reflect sunlight back to Earth at night over
specific locations. Taken together and adding in
proposals by SpaceX to put up perhaps a million
satellites would largely take away our ability
to enjoy the night sky

As dystopian as things seem now, the oligarchy class wants to take away our nights. 

 The Trump administration seems to be on a mission to make all of our lives more miserable, except for the billionaire oligarch class that is just loving life these days. 

I just found a new way the administration is set to make life even worse for humans, and everything else on Earth. And this one is especially horrible. 

Big companies, including Elon Musk's SpaceX, have plans that would fill our skies with a million or more little satellites, and also position a whole bunch of mirrors in orbit around the Earth to reflect sunlight down on us at night.

Sounds a little like depressing science fiction, but it's true. 

THE PROPOSALS

Per the Washington Post:

"Two little-noted applications under review by the Federal Communications Commission would, if fully implemented, fundamentally remake the night sky. But the FCC, the satellite regulator, appears to have fast tracked approval without much of a pass eo weigh the benefits of these proposals against the harms they could cause to life on the planet". 

The two proposals would essentially turn night into day, or something close to it. WaPo explains further:

"A start-up called Reflect Orbital proposes to use large, mirrored satellites to redirect sunlight to Earth at night, with plans to bathe solar farms, industrial sites and even entire cities in light that could, if desired, reach the intensity of daylight. 

At the same time, Elon Musk's SpaceX wants to launch as many as a million satellites to serve as orbiting data centers - 70 times the number now in orbit. We could have a million points of light streaking across our skies at night."

Space X only submitted its proposal on January 31. Per PC Mag:

"Usually, the FCC takes weeks or months to respond. In this case, it made a decision in days, even though SpaceX's proposal appears preliminary and even rushed, according to space experts, some of whom question the constellation's feasibility."

TEMU STARS

 The Washington Post concedes there is some benefit of moving data centers to space. It's better that consuming huge amounts to land water and energy on Earth.  Reflected sunlight could boost clean energy supplies and help with food production and even search and rescue.

But should we destroy night to accomplish these goals? Especially since we could solve all these problems right here on the ground. I'm rolling my eyes at the big building boom of AI data centers, that will use up huge amounts of energy and water. You'd think they'd be able to find a way to run AI that doesn't gobble up all the energy and water in the world. 

Aside from ruining the night sky, all this SpaceX satellites could end up colliding with other satellites and space debris. Some scientists worry this could lead to a chain reaction of colliding material.  Picture a high speed highway in a snow squall. 

One motorists swerves on the slick freeway to avoid debris on the road, crashes, and then all the other vehicles behind it pile up.t really is a war on nature waged by the oligarch class, egged on by the goons in the Trump administration. 

After all, to the billionaire class, nature is to be exploited for profit. Simply letting us serfs have calm, peaceful moments with the night sky is verboten. They should be working under grim, florescent lights for peanuts.  

Washington Post again: 

"...untimely light contributes to the loss of insect and bird populations. It disrupts migration, the seasonal patterns of plants and the circadian rhythms of animals ranging from sea turtles and mountain lions. Humans lose sleep because of artificial light, which potentially contributes to obesity and cancer. Light as faint as a full moon has been shown to alter our sleep patterns.

Reflect Orbital aspires to produce for its customers the high of up to 1,000 moons by 2028 and 360,000 moons by 2035. 

Then there's the philosophical questions: How will it feel if we can no longer gaze upward to see Orion, Ursa Major or the other constellations our ancestors have traced since Ptolemy? How will we perceive our place in the universe if we can no longer take in the twinkling starlight that began its voyage to us before the Pyramids rose in Egypt?"

Granted, Reflect Orbital does not propose lighting up the entire night sky at once. The reflected light from the mirrors would target specific areas. And under the lights, it would only have 20 percent or so of the sun's brightness. But the light pollution in areas surrounding the beam of night light would still be staggering. 

Especially combined with the zillions of SpaceX satellites up there that would essentially create a huge, ugly constellation of fake Temu stars 

The mirror satellites themselves would look like giant, artificial bright starts in the sky cluttering up and dimming the natural field of millions of stars so, so far away.  As you can imagine, astronomers are livid at this idea from Reflect Orbital.     

CAN WE STOP THIS?

 There's precious little standing between all of us who actually like it dark and night and the forces that would take that away from us. 

The FCC has pretty much exempted satellites from the National Environmental Policy act, which should require federal agencies to take into account environmental considerations. 

And, WaPo adds, the Trump FCC wants to strengthen the exemptions for satellite operations. And bipartisan legislation that recently got through the Senate Commerce Committee would further speed approval for satellites. 

I guess I'm one of the few left in the world who actually enjoys the night sky. I hope I'm wrong. An organization called DarkSky.org is of course opposed to this.

In addition to the harm the mirrored light would cause to birds, insects and our own circadian rhythms that regulate sleep, DarkSky.org catalogs other risks. People could be at risk of eye damage if they look at the light from the satellite mirror, like what would happen if people look directly at a partial solar eclipse. 

Moving beams of light from the mirrors could create sudden flashes, glare or weird illumination patters that could cause problems for airline pilots or even motorists, especially if these satellites and mirrors malfunction. 

"We also call on Reflect Orbital to demonstrate leadership by voluntarily commissioning a comprehensive, independent environmental impact assessment conducted by qualified experts - regardless of whether such review is required by the FCC," Darksky.org said in a statement.

In other words, even if nobody in charge wants to review dangers to the public, that review should be done anyway.

Public comment on SpaceX's proposal only lasts through Friday, March 6 . Click this link for information on how to do that.

I guess for now, we should find places away from cities to gaze up at the stars and the heavens. If the oligarchy class has its way, we might soon lose that simple pleasure. 

Michael Brown, an astronomy professor at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia put it this way: 

"I sort of ike the sky being sort of this shared wilderness. If you go somewhere where it's nice and dark and look at the night sky and have all these constant reminders of technology, I think that's a bit of a loss."

That's a huge understatement, but the man is absolutely correct. 

 

 

Believe It Or Not, ANOTHER Hurricane Threat Looming?

That cluster of thunderstorms you see in the lower left
of this morning's satellite image - east of Central
America and well south of Cuba, are what forecasters
believe will become tropical storm or hurricane Sara

 It's still technically hurricane season, so you can still get such storms this time of year.

But the end of Hurricane Season 2024 is likely setting records for being busy. 

I'm saying that because meteorologists are convinced another tropical storm or hurricane will form in the Caribbean Sea very soon. And it could get strong, according to some computer projections. If and when it does get going, they'll name it Sara. 

The problem now is - since the thing hasn't officially formed yet -  we don't yet know where Wannabe Sara will go and how much of a threat it's going to become. 

But yes, it's possible it could hit Florida, but were way too early to start panicking over that possibility. It's just as plausible that Wannabe Sara would entire miss Florida.

 Or hit, but be in such a weakened state by the time it gets there that it wouldn't be that big of a deal. Still, a worrying percentage of the computer model forecasts bring this thing into Florida next week. So stay tuned to this bat channel.

After three strikes by destructive hurricanes this year (Debby, Helene, Milton), Florida could certainly do without another such storm. Two other hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. this year. (Beryl in Texas, Francine in Louisiana). Five U.S. hurricane strikes in one year is very rare.

CURRENT SITUATION

As of this morning, Wannabe Sara hadn't organized into anything like a tropical storm yet. It didn't look like it had a noticeable circulation. But the mess of clouds with this thing was getting better organized. It's over water that's much warmer than usual for this time of year. And the type of strong upper level winds that could smack down a potential tropical storm just aren't there. 

Climate change has helped make ocean water in the tropics warmer than in the past and extends the warmth later into the season. So I guess we shouldn't be all that surprised that given the right conditions, a late season hurricane becomes more likely. 

Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes are scheduled to fly into this thing later today to have a look under the hood. That'll provide a lot more data on what's going on with Wannabe Sara.

Many forecasts seem to have Wannabe Sara meandering in the western Caribbean Sea for awhile later this week and weekend before heading north. If it stays over water and threads the needle on its northward path over water between Cancun and Cuba, it could enter the Gulf of Mexico as a major, threat.

If Wannabe Sara bumps into or over land in Central America and Mexico, then it would be a weaker, lesser threat later on. 

BUSY LATE SEASON

Since late October, there have already been three tropical storms or hurricanes, which is awfully busy for a time of year when hurricane activity  usually wanes. Tiny Hurricane Oscar made landfall in eastern Cuba back on October 19 with top winds of 80 mph. That storm caused damage in Cuba and parts of the Bahamas.

Tropical Storm Patty (which spent most of its life as a hybrid subtropical storm) harassed the Azores in early November. Its location was oddly far north and east in the Atlantic, especially for that late in the season.

Then, category 3 Hurricane Rafael made landfall in western Cuba with top winds of 115 mph and caused a lot of damage. It then moved into the central Gulf of Mexico and attained top winds of 120 mph, a record strength for such a late season hurricane in that location. Luckily, Rafael then dissipated without ever hitting land again. 

BREAKING: Florida Now Under NEW Hurricane Threat

Projections released Saturday by the National Hurricane
Center bring a powerful hurricane to already battered
Florida midweek. This projected path is subject to change

 In a report I did yesterday, it appeared as if some sort of tropical system heading toward Florida might prove weak and disorganized.  

At least that was the hope. 

Now, however, many of the same parts of Florida severely whacked by Hurricane Helene are about to get it again. That "weak" storm is now expected to become a powerful hurricane. 

As of this morning, a tropical depression had formed in the western Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to strengthen slowly at first, then rapidly as it moves at an increasing forward speed toward the west coast of Florida. 

Per the National Hurricane Center:

"There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plans in place, follow any advice given by local officials and check back for updates in the forecast. "

The forecast path could change, but right now, the projected path takes what will probably be Hurricane Milton could end up somewhere near Tampa or Fort Myers around Wednesday. This is the precise area of Florida that suffered record high storm surges and probably more than $1 billion in damage from coastal flooding less that two weeks ago.

On top of that, current forecasts have top wind speeds at landfall somewhere near 110 mph. Given the record warm temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico feeding this storm, those winds could end up being stronger than forecast. 

People there are only just beginning to clean up that mess, and here we go again. It's so disheartening. I really feel for these people.

Also, sort of like Helene, heavy rain is likely to precede the arrival of Wannabe Milton on Monday and Tuesday in Florida. That would prime the pump for inland flooding once the hurricane hits. 

If there's any good news out of this, strong indications are wannabe Milton will move in an east to northeast direction across Florida and then out into the Atlantic Ocean off the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. 

That means it will NOT curve up toward western North Carolina and surrounding areas, scene of the deadly and cataclysmic floods with Helene at the end of September.  No rain is forecast in western North Carolina for the next week at least. 

Further out in the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie pose no threats to land. However, once Kirk ceases being a hurricane in the cold North Atlantic waters, it will become a powerful "regular" storm that could cause wind damage and flooding in much of western Europe toward Wednesday and Thursday. 

Day 2 Of Severe Weather Outbreak Was Bad Again, Today, Day 3 Might Be Even Worse

The United States at the moment is dealing with its second large tornado outbreak in a month, and today will be just as bad as the previous two.  

Today's severe storm and tornado risk covers a broad part 
of the U.S. Areas in orange and especially red are
most at risk. Note the dark green in southern Vermont,
which denotes the possibility of an isolated severe
storm or two this afternoon. 

On Monday, as you recall, tornadoes targeted Oklahoma and surrounding areas, killing at least one person. Another man in devastated Barnsdall, Oklahoma is missing. 

Tuesday was the second day of this outbreak, this time targeting parts of southern Michigan, along with Indiana and Ohio. 

Today, a huge area is under the gun for severe weather and tornadoes. The most dangerous area will be from northeast Texas through Kentucky, with a particular area of concern right near the Mississippi River in Tennessee, Missouri, Illinois and Kentucky.

A low risk of severe weather extends all the way to us here in Vermont, but we're expecting nothing nearly as dramatic as what will happen in the Midwest today. 

More on Vermont's weather further down in this post.  

TUESDAY RECAP 

A rare tornado emergency was declared as a large twister swept through areas southeast of Kalamazoo, Michigan. The city of Portage was hit by two tornadoes space around an hour apart. One of the twisters slammed a large FedEx distribution center, tearing off much of the roof and collapsing walls.  

The tornado trapped about 50 people in the wreckage of the building,  but they were later rescued without serious injury. 

It's always bad when a tornado hits a mobile home park, and one was hit in Portage. Nearly 20 mobile homes were destroyed and another 170 or so damaged. Up to 20 injuries were reported there, but there were thankfully no deaths, and the injuries do not appear to be life-threatening.  

The tornado also leveled a strip mall.  Employees at a Pizza Hut took shelter in a walk-in freezer while the building collapsed around them.  They ended up with no major injuries. 

In total, about 30 tornado reports came in from Tuesday's storms, on top of the 25 reported Monday. Those figures will change as meteorologists investigate tornado damaged areas to determine whether destruction in particular areas was caused by tornadoes or intense thunderstorm winds.   

The Washington Post says Tuesday was the 13th day in a row in which tornadoes were reported in the United States. Today will almost definitely be the 14th. 

TODAY

Tornadoes, as noted, are all but certain today, but how many and how strong they get depends on a variety of factors. If an intense squall line forms, there will be embedded tornadoes in that, but the greater threat in the mid-Mississippi valley into the Ohio valley would be intense straight line winds.

If that squall line isn't as organized, more supercells with possible strong tornadoes would form in the region. In any event, people in a huge area from Dallas to Cincinnati ought to stay weather aware today. 

The threat of severe storms will continue in the Southeast tomorrow. After that, the risk of tornadoes anywhere in the U.S. will diminish, but not entirely go away Friday through the weekend. 

VERMONT

Much like on Sunday, a wave of rain was moving through the Green Mountain State this morning. But this afternoon, things might evolve differently than they did over the weekend. 

After that goes, through, an area of drier air comes in. That will open up the atmosphere for some heating from the sun, which might increase instability. The drier air won't be gone dry. And there's some strong winds aloft. All this could be fuel for afternoon showers and storms, and one or two might be on the severe side.

This is where expectations for this afternoon gets tricky. The National Weather Service office in South Burlington, in their forecast discussion, said that if the incoming air is too dry, very few showers and thunderstorms will form.  If the air coming in is more moist than expected, an overcast will hold firm, preventing instability and limiting the chances of thunderstorms 

It the afternoon air is sort of mid-range in terms of dryness, that would be a window for an isolated thunderstorm or two to produce damaging wind gust or large hail.

We know that this won't be anything widespread. If anybody gets hit be a nasty storm, it will be just a couple locations at most.  The most likely zone for this would be Addison County and western Rutland county. 

Elsewhere, in northern Vermont, there could be a few thunderstorms, just a chance, but they shouldn't be severe.  

Small Storm In Middle Of Nowhere To Become Very Powerful Hurricane. Then What?

Brand new Tropical Storm Lee, halfway between Africa and
the Lesser Antilles this afternoon, already has "that look"
on satellite photos, suggesting it will turn into a very
powerful hurricane, as forecasters anticipate.

 A tropical depression - often a precursor to a tropical storm or hurricane, formed today in the middle of nowhere, Atlantic Ocean. 

By late this afternoon, it had already strengthened into Tropical Storm Lee. 

At last check, it was about halfway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, a north/south chain of islands that marks the extreme northeastern corner of the Caribbean Sea.

This storm, a nothing burger as of early Tuesday afternoon, wouldn't even be worth mentioning except that forecasters are way more confident than usual in this type of situation that this will become a very powerful hurricane. 

Conditions are nearly perfect for what will eventually be Hurricane Lee to strengthen into a monster. The water it's going over is at record warm levels. 

Super warm water is jet fuel for hurricanes. Upper level winds over the storm are expected to be quite light, especially starting mid to late week. That's another necessary ingredient for a monster storm.

By Sunday, the National Hurricane Center expects top winds with Lee to be 145 mph.  It could be even stronger. Some of the computer models suggest it will be stronger than that. 

With such a strong hurricane out there, it's natural to start worrying about any land it might hit. This is a Cape Verde hurricane, so named because that's the area where it originated.

Cape Verde hurricanes are notorious for being extreme disasters. Huge hurricanes ranging from the Great New England hurricane of 1938 to Hurricane Dorian in 2019 were Cape Verde types.

Nobody knows for sure where this storm will end up, but early signs are actually kind of encouraging.  The current hope is that it will go north of the Lesser Antilles and north of Puerto Rico, which would minimize damage.

Then what?  At that point, a week from now,  Lee will still be heading toward the United States, which of course would be really bad.

Again, no guarantees, but early signs are again hopeful.  If it strengthens quickly, chances are it will make a north turn earlier, missing the East Coast. If stays weak until it gets closer to the Caribbean, then it will probably track further west, becoming a bigger threat to the East Coast.

Current forecasts have Lee getting really strong early in its life, which could help. 

Also, the heat ridge that's now baking Vermont and the rest of the eastern United States and southeastern Canada will be replaced by a much cooler dip in the jet stream within a week.

This dip, called a trough, if it sets up over the eastern United States, will tend to deflect Lee, making it move north, then northeast well off the coast. 

Again, though, Lee bears watching. If the trough in the eastern United States turns out weaker than expected, or further west than forecast, that could open the door for the hurricane to turn north the East Coast of the United States or into southeastern Canada. 

I did see one computer run that had this smashing into New England as a powerful hurricane. However, for complicated reasons, that scenario didn't make meteorological sense. This afternoon's run of the American computer model today had it hitting Cape Cod and eastern Maine around September 16.  I also find that prognostication unconvincing. 

Computer model forecasts beyond five days are often notoriously inaccurate. 

However, unpleasant surprises have happened. Forecasts had called for Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Florence in 2018 to curve northward and miss the United States. Florence ended up striking North Carolina and Irma hit Florida. Both were Cape Verde hurricanes, and both caused billions of dollars in damage.

In any event, it's way, way too early to think about how close Lee comes to the East Coast. We'll know much more in about four to seven days from now.  Until then, try not to wilt in the tropical heat that has engulfed Vermont this week. 

Today's Vermont Severe Weather Threat, Explained

Though the highest threat for damaging, severe 
thunderstorms in in the orange zone, Vermont
is at risk for severe storms as well, 
mostly between 2 and 10 pm. today. 

UPDATE:  

is now in effect for all of Vermont through 8 pm. 

The expected main line of storms is still well to our west, but also as expected, storms are firing up in the Adirondacks and Green Mountains well ahead of this line. 

Some of these storms might become severe as well. 

A few of these storms are capable of turning into supercells, says NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, which could contain large hail and damaging winds.

Be weather aware folks. Storms will continue to roam the area for the rest of the afternoon and probably into the evening.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has kept Vermont in the low risk category for severe storms today, which is alert level two of five.

That means stay on your toes for scattered incidents of severe thunderstorms.  Most of us won't see a storm that meets severe criteria. But a few lucky devils will so we'll need to be on our toes.  

The rest of us ought to be on our toes, too, really.  Even if you don't have a storm that's officially "severe," a lot of storms today will have gusty winds, dangerous lightning and torrential downpours. 

The patches of dense fog were burning off as I write this, (later in the morning than usual due to an Xfinity outage). The sun will help destabilize the air ahead of a potent cold front coming from the west later today.

Vermont isn't really at the highest risk of severe weather of all the places in the Northeast. The bullseye seems to be from central New York down through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and down into Maryland.

Those spots as of this writing have the highest chance of damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado. That doesn't mean we're out of the woods in Vermont, it just means the Green Mountain  State has a slightly lesser chance of being on the receiving end of nastiness. 

It looks like the main show for the Northeast will be a whomping squall line.  Up here in Vermont, that squall line might be just a tiny bit weaker. Here's why, according to the National Weather Service in South Burlington.

Well ahead of this squall line, thunderstorms should develop over the Green Mountains by early afternoon as the atmospheric instability grows. These storms could stabilize the air a little bit, so the squall line, when it gets here, might not have all the ingredients to make it super powerful.

That said, the squall line will have what is known as a negative tilt. That means it'll have a northwest to southeast orientation as it approaches us. It won't be a huge tilt, but it might add a little energy to this. 

It looks like the main line of storms will come in somewhere around 5 or 6 p.m in western Vermont, give or take, and be out of eastern Vermont by around 10 p.m. It's hard to say which parts of this squall line will be most intense around here. We won't know until it is approaching or over us

By the way, by far the biggest threat from these storms is straight line winds and localized flooding.  Still there's a very low, but not zero chance of a quick spin up tornado. Don't count on that, but it's within the realm of possibility. 

Although we had a long dry spell, pockets of Vermont had torrential downpours Saturday and Sunday. This is especially true around Rutland. That area received 1 to 3.5 inches of rain in an epic, isolated thunderstorm Saturday. 

Greensboro also picked up a little over two inches of rain Saturday. Some parts of northern Vermont and the Adirondacks also received some heavy downpours Sunday.

If especially heavy storms or several of them hit these wet areas in particular today, there could be some local flash floods. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has us in a risk zone for some pockets of excessive rain and flash flooding today. 

The cold front driving these big thunderstorms has some chilly air behind it. You'll really notice it tomorrow. 

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will barely make it to 60 degrees while lows reach the upper 30s and low 40s midweek. 

So, the bottom line for today: You're at risk of seeing a good boomer any time after about 1 p.m. Anything before late afternoon will be basically appetizers, hit and miss. But some of those early storms might pack a punch, so take 'em seriously. 

The main show is toward evening.  I'll update this as warranted. Basically, if you see a storm coming or receive a severe thunderstorm warning, just get your butt into a sturdy building.  

Hurricane Ida: It Ain't Over Yet

Galliano, Louisiana in a shambles after Hurricane Ida.
Photo from the U.S. Coast Guard

 UPDATE 4:30 PM TUESDAY

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has upgraded the flash flood risk to "High" in parts of the Northeast for tomorrow.

That's a rare highest level alert, especially for this part of the nation.  In other words, this area is in SERIOUS trouble from flooding due to former Hurricane Ida.

The "high" ranking means severe, widespread flash flooding is expected. Areas that normally don't flood could well do so.

The area of highest risk goes from the northeastern corner of West Virginia, through southern and parts of eastern Pennsylvania, the New York City metro area and Connecticut.

The remains of Ida are expected to hook up with a stalled weather front to dump at least four to eight inches of rain on this area in a day or less.  There could be a few pockets that get more than that, even. Eight inches of rain is twice what normally falls in a month in this area.

The impacts of this impending flood will almost certainly be worse than what happened with Henri recently. Of course, the ground is still sopping wet from that storm, which doesn't help.

In Vermont, there's a slight risk of flooding from this in the extreme south, basically south of Route 9.  At this point, areas north of that should be OK Forecasts might get updated and shifted, so stay tuned. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Hurricane Ida reminds me a lot of Hurricane Camille in 1969.  

Camille was even worse than Ida, but the story of the two storms is turning out to be eerily similar.

Camille roared ashore as an incredible Category 5 hurricane with top winds of 175 mph on August 17, 1969 in Pass Christian, Mississippi. The storm surge was over 24 feet there, which was at the time the record highest storm surge in U.S. history. (Katrina in 2005 topped that).

After making landfall, the remains of Camille moved inland, then bent east into West Virginia and Virginia, dumping over a foot of rain, with two feet in some locations. Most of the rain fell in just a few hours, and the resulting flash floods killed 113 people in the two states. The overall death toll from  Camille was 256.

The reason I bring all this up is the remains of Hurricane Ida are heading northeast, threatening some dangerous flooding well north of its landfall in Louisiana, especially up in Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia today, and tomorrow in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the New York City metro area.

Flood watches extend in a broad band from the Florida Panhandle up through the western and central Appalachians all the way to the Middle Atlantic States and southern New England. 

I'm not saying there's going to be up to 31 inches of rain, like Camille in Virginia  back in the summer of '69.  But broad areas will have a half foot of rain or more, and theres a chance of a foot of rain in some of these spots.  The whole area under this flood threat has had a very sodden summer, so the soils are already primed for flooding.  

In other words, this could get really bad.

For my Vermont readers, we're in better shape. There's a chance that far southern Vermont could share in the flooding, we'll have to see how far north the heavy rain gets.  Forecasts vary, but for now, different sections of the Green Mountain State look like they'll get either manageable amounts of rain from the remains of Ida, or nothing at all.

This big flood threat from ex-Ida is not exactly helpful, since the hurricane caused an immense amount of damage already. 

The levees held in New Orleans, so the city didn't flood like it did during Katrina. But levees were overtopped in many other areas, so there's extensive flooding throughout southeastern Louisiana.

Wind damage is immense. Countless homes and buildings collapsed or lost roofs. The electrical grid is in shambles, and many people will need to wait a good six weeks or even more to get their power back. 

We don't have an estimated dollar amount of damage yet. That will take a lot of time to tally. Right now, they're in search and rescue mode in Louisiana. They're not ready to do the bean counting yet. 

So far there have four deaths connected to Ida, but that toll will go up. Probably sharply. 

The remains of Ida aren't the only ex-hurricane flood threat facing a part of the United States.

Hurricane Nora crashed into the west coast of northwestern Mexico over the weekend.  Lots of wet air streaming north from that storm's remains are coming into the Desert Southwest. Flash flooding is likely once again in Arizona today because of this situation.  

Hurricane Ida As Bad As It Gets; Enormous Trouble For Louisiana

UPDATE 2:15 pm. Saturday

Compare this satellite view of Hurricane Ida taken

early this afternoon compared to the early morning

image below and you can see that it has strengthen

and organized a lot since then

As expected, Hurricane Ida is gaining strength pretty rapidly. 

I wrote the post you see below at around 8 a.m., and in the six hours since, the hurricane has looked a lot more organized and symmetrical, and a well-defined eye formed.  An increase in strength usually lags a little while after an eye forms and a hurricane gets more organized.

That strengthening trend has definitely begun.  As of 1 p.m., strongest sustained winds with Ida were estimated at 100 mph.   Ida was moving over very warm Gulf water and upper level winds, or lack thereof, would encourage further strengthening, possibly rapid strengthening. 

This remains a huge, devastating threat to Louisiana. Hurricane Ida's track is now just a little bit east of where it was forecast, which is potentially bad.  If it keeps on that slightly more easterly track, it'll come ashore closer to New Orleans, and make things there worse.

However, strong hurricanes tend to wobble a bit in a subtle zigzag pattern, so it might sneak back west a tad. Who knows?

Wherever Ida hits, there will be real danger. To emphasize things, here's what the National Weather Service office in New Orleans tweeted this afternoon (capital letters theirs, not mine): "We once again stress that if you are under evacuation order or can leave, PLEASE LEAVE., DEVASTING conditions WILL happen." 

The evacuation itself is beginning to worry me. 

 Highways in the area are bumper to bumper, with some accidents and vehicle breakdowns making things worse. You want everybody off the highways before the rough weather arrives. People can be sitting ducks for real danger if they're on the road and the hurricane arrives.

There's still a little time to get everybody out of the way, so this piece is not a crisis yet.  But it's looking a little too chaotic for my tastes.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, 8 PM

Meteorologists for the past day or two have been filled with dread over Hurricane Ida.

For good reason. 

Hurricane Ida already looking ferocious early this morning

on this satellite image. It will only get stronger as the day

goes on and poses an enormous threat to Louisiana.

Everything is set up for it to be an extremely powerful hurricane as it roars northward through the Gulf of Mexico today and tomorrow with its sights set on Louisiana.

It's the worst kind of hurricane. It's expected to be a Category 4 storm at landfall and will be strengthening probably all the way to the coast.  There is going to be huge destruction in Louisiana, which has already been battered by several hurricanes in the past year or two

You could by yesterday that Ida was going to be in trouble. You could see it blossom from a disorganized tropical storm to a well-organized hurricane in just hours.  The center of Ida crossed the rugged terrain of western Cuba. You'd expect that land interaction to really disrupt Ida's circulation.

Instead, Hurricane Ida just seemed to hiccup, and this morning was rapidly developing once again.  After Ida emerged into the Gulf of Mexico early today, two extremely intense thunderstorm complexes formed on opposite sides of the eye and started to swirl around the center. That setup is usually a sign that a hurricane will intensify quickly.

So far, 150,000 people have been ordered out and away from the expected path of Ida in Louisiana. There really isn't time to evacuate all of New Orleans, but people there are being urged to go today.

New Orleans erected a $20 billion levee system after the extreme devastation of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. I guess this will be a test of whether these levees can hold back Ida's expected 11-foot surge. Meanwhile, more than a foot of wind-driven rain is expected to fall on New Orleans.  Will the pumps be able to at least partially keep up with the flooding rains, or will power fails and such silence the pumps, with extreme flooding resulting? 

Unfortunately, that's the question right now. 

By the way, Hurricane Ida is forecast to make landfall on the exact 16th anniversary of Katrina's strike on Louisiana.

Other parts of Louisiana and Mississippi are going to get bulldozed by this, too.  Remember, hospitals in this region are already overwhelmed with Covid cases.  Dozens or hundreds of injuries and other emergencies from Ida won't be managed as well as usual.  This problem will extend well inland, as torrential rains will spread dangerous flooding all the way to Tennessee and probably beyond.

I know a lot of this seems like hype. After all, didn't the last one -Henri in the Northeast - turn out to be not as bad as advertised?

Sure, there's a chance Ida might not strengthen as much as forecast. Perhaps the Gulf Coast will get lucky and some dry air will get sucked into the circulation, causing Ida to falter.

Don't count on that.  Hurricane Ida will travel over super warm Gulf of Mexico waters. Such hot water is jet fuel for hurricanes. Upper level winds will be light, so the thunderstorms that surround Ida's center will continue to get stronger, thereby boosting the hurricane further. 

A lot of it comes down to exactly where Hurricane Ida comes ashore. The hurricane will be catastrophic no matter where it lands. So I guess you want it to come in where it will affect the least amount of people.

The worst case scenario is if it comes in just west of New Orleans. That would put NOLA into the most extreme push of storm surges, and the strongest winds.  

People in Louisiana don't have much time left to prepare or get out of Dodge. The weather will start going downhill this afternoon or tonight in southern Louisiana. Gasoline, drinking water and other supplies are probably going fast.

People who are sheltering in place will face no electricity and even worse gas and supply shortages in the days immediately after the storm, so that will be an issue.

Even if everybody heeds warnings and gets out of the way, many of the deaths and injuries from hurricanes comes after the wind dies down.  People get hurt chain sawing their way out of a sea of fallen trees, they have heart attacks and strokes from the stress, come down with heat-related illnesses since there's no air conditioning, or get hurt or injured in a myriad of ways during the immediate post-hurricane cleanup.

And, as mentioned, there's Covid, and the highly contagious Delta variant of that virus. Put a bunch of unvaccinated people in emergency shelters and that just makes the wave of Covid hospitalizations and deaths that much worse.

So yeah, I'm absolutely dreading this storm. We'd be crazy not to.

Friday Evening Henri Update: Still Weird, Still Uncertain

Henri continuing to organize off the southeast US 
coast Friday afternoon. It remains a big threat 
for New England. 

Henri, as of 5 p.m. today, continues to menace New England.  Vermont remains in the danger zone, especially for the risk of inland flooding. 

Especially in southern Vermont.

The late afternoon updates keep things nearly the same as this morning, though the forecast track keeps nudging toward the west. 

Of course, where Henri lands and where it goes after it makes landfall has a huge impact on what will happen in Vermont.

The more westward track is potential bad news for us here in Vermont.  Henri could come ashore as far left as near New York City or even northern New Jersey. 

The consensus is for it to come ashore around Connecticut, and move as far northwest as Albany, New York before taking a sharp right hand turn toward Maine. 

That track, and Henri's expected slow forward pace, makes me pretty worried about this storm. The latest official National Hurricane Center storm track has Henri over the Connecticut/Massachusetts border at around 2 a.m. Monday, and only moves it to about Brattleboro by 2 p.m. Monday. That's a lot of time to dump a lot of rain.

Do note that the forecast track WILL change, but you get the idea. This is potentially horrible for southwestern New England.  

 Its winds would probably diminish quickly, but the fact that it won't get out of New England or even New York any time fast means torrential downpours would linger longer than in a "normal" tropical storm.

That could mean someone - I don't know who - could receive incredible amounts of rain on saturated ground. Not to scare anyone, but some forecasts call for six or more inches of rain somewhere in southern New England, southern New York or even southern Vermont. 

That would unleash a much worse than usual flood on wherever it hits.  For what it's worth, flood forecasts as of late this afternoon put the worst of it in Connecticut and western Massachusetts, but the risk does extend into the southeastern third of Vermont. At least for now.

As noted above, forecasts are likely to change, but I don't know if it will get better or get worse. 

Northern Vermont still looks to escape the worst of it, but questions still remain as to where the heaviest rain will fall. 

This is just a quick Friday evening update. I'll  have more details and more updates tomorrow morning. 

Hurricane Isaias Now A Threat To U.S. East Coast

Now-Hurricane Isaias is yet another over performer, taking advantage of the jet fuel warmth of this

Hurricane Isaias is looking a little 
disorganized this morning due to 
strong upper level winds interfering
with it. 

year's tropical Atlantic Ocean waters to intensify.

This, despite a tussle with the mountains of the Dominican Republic, which should have at least kept Isaias somewhat in check. 

But as the mountains there tried to disrupt the system, a new center seemed to form just north of that island and away we went. 

At last check Isaias was packing winds of 80 mph and will probably keep strengthening as it hits the Bahamas today.  Not good, since the northern Bahamas were trashed by Category 5 Hurricane Dorian last year, so another blow from a hurricane is not needed.

The future track and intensity of Isaias is still a little questionable, as it is for all tropical systems. But the hurricane is a United States threat from Florida all the way to Maine and possibly beyond. As of this morning, Isaias was waging a battle with some strongish upper level winds, which were messing with its organization and ability to strengthen rapidly. 

The water ahead of Isaias is super warm, though, so that should help the storm at least maintain itself, if not get more powerful.

Once Isaias reached a point near the East Coast and starts moving northward, a couple dozen miles either way east or west in its track can make a big difference. Isaias is now expected to take a track parallel or even possibly over the Eastern Seaboard.  If it stays well offshore, that's a good thing. Then it won't be too bad.  Close or over the coastline, then you have a real problem. 

If it makes landfall anywhere between Florida and North Carolina south, it will be a HUGE mess for those regions between now and Tuesday or so.  Or, Isaias could stay just off the coast until it crashes into Long Island mid week or so, causing havoc there and in eastern New England.  Or it could stay off the coast and give just a glancing blow.

All of those potential scenarios are on the table right now. 

Intensity is a question too.  The waters along the entire East Coast are much warmer than average. Hurricanes tend to weaken as they approach the Northeast because of chillier water up there.  But this year's bathwater would tend to slow that weakening trend with Isaias. 

If Isaias makes a solid landfall in North Carolina or points south, the main threat in the Northeast would not be really be wind but torrential rains instead. 

 If it goes directly at Long Island or New England,  that neck of the woods could have a full-fledged hurricane, perhaps similar to Hurricane Bob in 1991 which actually made landfall in southeastern Massachusetts that year as a Category 2 hurricane with top winds of 100 mph with higher gusts. That storm caused $680 million in damage in New England.  

The best case scenario would have Isaias make a good right turn and stay off the coast altogether.

Even before Isaias gets near the Northeast, if it does, something called a Predecessor Rain Event or PRE's that can occur ahead of a hurricane or tropical storm along the East Coast. 

This is an area of very heavy rain that sets up well north or northwest of a tropical storm moving up from the south.  They are often located 500 miles or more north of the actual storm. They can cause tremendous flooding and definitely should be taken seriously. 

PRE's are hard to forecast. They're especially hard to figure out where they will set up.  On Sunday, some type of storm will head northeastward out of the Ohio Valley toward the eastern Great Lakes. It's possible the combination of this and Isaias could set up a PRE, although we don't know yet if that will happen, or if it does, exactly where.  

It just means there's potential for trouble even for locations away from the coastline.  

Florida is a real concern if Isaias hits there.  If any evacuations or damage occurs, it will be more complicated this time in Florida than it was with Dorian. 

Already, the state has decided to close coronavirus testing centers due to the threat from the hurricane.  That will affect the level of care people get, and assessments of how its spreading. The Florida state government has already done an abysmal job with this pandemic, and this will only make things worse. 

As I already noted, Isaias is a threat to a very big and very populated East Coast, so this could be a nightmare of evacuations, damage and fear mixed in with the coronavirus. They'd said we might be in for a bad hurricane season this year, which is never a good thing.  The timing this year with the pandemic could not have been worse.

Let's hope the computer models that keep it further off the coast are correct. But of course it's too early to know that yet. 

VERMONT EFFECTS

We have no good idea yet how, or even if, Isaias will affect Vermont. At this point, at least, it's looking more like a 1991 Hurricane Bob than a horrible 2011 Irene, but we still have to be alert, as that could change. 

Vermont escaped the worst of Hurricane Bob. All we got was a day of rather heavy rain and gusty, but not super damaging winds in southeastern Vermont and light rain in the northwest.  Of course we all know what Hurricane Irene did to us. 

Forecasters don't yet have a good handle on what kind of effects Isaias would have on Vermont.  Unlike the wet summer leading up to Irene in 2011,  most of Vermont is abnormally dry or even in a drought, so there's more capacity to soak up heavy rains than there was in 2011.

Of course, the heaviest rains fall to the northwest of a hurricane or tropical storm track, so it's possible we could have some flooding.  Especially if we are unlucky enough to fall under one of those PRE's I mentioned above. 

As you've seen and heard me say several times, just stay tuned on this one.  Before we even get to the middle of next week, we have Sunday's inclement weather to deal with. 

Early indications are the most rain Sunday will fall to our west.  Also, if a warm front moves far enough north on Sunday, there could be a severe storm or two. Before that, things will be benign, with just a low chance of a shower or garden variety thunderstorm this afternoon.