Rare Tornado Watch In Effect For Vermont/New York Today: High Winds, Then Severe Storms, Some Twisters Possible

UPDATE: 10:30 a.m.

Here's a weather map you don't see 
every day. The greatest chances of
tornadoes today, according to NOAA
are along the Gulf Coast and in 
Vermont (brown shading). 
Still, the risk of a twister is very low
and if severe storms develop today
the trouble would probably come
from intense straight line winds

A rare tornado watch is in effect for Vermont and much of New York.

The tornado watch remains in effect until 3 p.m. It actually covers all of Vermont and most of New York State.'

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, strong winds aloft caused by that intense winter like storm will increase the risk of intense winds with the storms, 

Because winds are changing direction in different levels of the atmosphere, some storms could start to rotate, which helps explain why there could be some brief tornadoes in New York or Vermont. 

Already, one tornado warning has been issued in western New York and there are a bunch of severe thunderstorm warnings out there. 

Another unusual thing is the timing. Most severe storm outbreaks peak in the late afternoon and evening, But this storm's cold front is coining earlier. 

And the atmospheric dynamics are so great that severe thunderstorms and even isolated tornadoes can develop in the late morning and early afternoon.

The main threat is strong straight line winds from the storms, by the way. The chances of a tornado are still low, but obviously there. 

Aside from the severe weather threat, winds are increasing in Vermont ahead of the storms as of 10 a.m so scattered  power outages are likely to develop over the next few hours. Even before any thunderstorms get here. 

Definitely be weather aware today and heed any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. There's a chance some of these storms might end up being more intense than our typical summer windbags, 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

So far, our storm is playing out as expected here in Vermont, but some surprises might still be in store.

Whatever happens, this will be one of Vermont's nastiest weather days of the summer. 

 A swath of rain, some of it moderate to heavy, was moving through the Green Mountain State as of 8:30 a.m.  Judging from weather radar, the steady rain will soon turn showery, with frequent downpours mixed with brief breaks. 

WIND

The showers will tend to diminish for a relatively brief period later this morning. That's when the wind will really kick in. 

The wind advisory for gusts to 40 to 55 mph is still in effect. It covers all of Vermont except the Connecticut River Valley south of roughly Wells River. 

We'll see some power outages blossom here and there as some trees give up the ghost with the onslaught of winds. 

As I keep saying, winds of that magnitude almost never happen in the summer. When we get this type of storm in the winter, when they're more common,  the wind passes pretty easily through bare branches so it's not as much of a problem. 

Leafed out trees are heavier, and the leaves act as little sails to tug at the trees. In many places, the soil has gotten pretty wet, making it easier to uproot trees when they tilt in the wind. 

This won't exactly be a huge destructive storm like a hurricane, but we'll lose a few trees and branches. 

Strongest winds still look like they'll hit the northern Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Lake Champlain should be pretty wild with two to four foot waves, maybe even a bit higher than that on the broad lake during the worst of the wind. 

STORMS

The thunderstorm outlook for this afternoon is still challenging. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 out of 5 alert - for severe storms today. 

And here's a new twist. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the two places in the nation with the highest chances of tornadoes today are parts of the Gulf Coast, and Vermont (along with eastern New York and western New Hampshire).

Granted, it's still a very low chance, but not quite as low as we usually see during severe storm risk days.  Usually, when I mention a very low risk of  tornado, it means a 2 percent chance of seeing a twister with 25 miles of your location.

This time, it's a 5 percent chance of seeing a tornado with 25 miles of your location. Those are still low odds, but not as low as it could be. 

The SPC says some low top rotating supercells could get going  in our atmosphere today. But the biggest threat is some storms grabbing some of the odd, high speed air flowing a few thousand feet overhead and bringing those winds to the surface in a few locations. 

If storms develop this afternoon, they'll move rapidly. Storm intensity will probably change quickly, one way or the other, as well. That means you'll get little or no advance warning when they approach.  If you see dark clouds to the west, it'll be best if you get inside a sturdy building quickly, even if there is no severe storm warning in effect at that moment. 

Severe storms in Vermont are NOT a foregone conclusion, however. Maybe the winds aloft could be actually too strong for big thunderstorms to develop. Especially since this morning's rain and a warm layer of air high up in the atmosphere might prevent tall thunderstorms clouds from forming. 

But I wouldn't relax about it. I know we didn't get the predicted severe weather this past Sunday. But this is a completely different weather setup than we had on Sunday, so the outcome on what might happen will also be completely different. 

If we don't get any severe storms, great! But be prepared, because a few towns - not all of us but a fe towns - could really get nailed with nasty, damaging thunderstorm winds. 

The severe storm threat should be over by this evening

FLOODING

Despite the bursts of heavy rain, I'm not too concerned about any flooding. Everything is just moving along too fast. Downpours won't linger over one area too long. Even if we get severe thunderstorms, they will produce torrential downpours that won't last long 

Still, there's a chance that a couple spots could get such a gully washer that a gravel road or two could see damage. The risk is quite low, but there. I notice there is a flood watch in northern New Hampshire. Strong winds hitting the White Mountains is causing the air flow to rise violently, which could set off some nasty downpours there. 

BEYOND TODAY

I won't get into much detail here, because we have our hands full with today. Tomorrow will actually be OK, with some sun, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers or maybe a garden variety thunderstorm. It'll still be quite breezy, but not downright windy like today. Highs will get well into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday look worse, with showers and garden variety thunderstorms  likely, especially north. It'll be cool, too, with highs Saturday in the 60s to low 70s and readings just a couple degrees higher Sunday. 

Valleys in southern Vermont will probably eek out some decent weather over the weekend with a lower chance of showers and more breaks of sun.

A risk of rain and showers will continue into next week, but temperatures will moderate to near normal late June levels by the middle of the week. We hope. 

Some Vermont Flash Flooding Reported; Hot, Humid Weather Today, Tomorrow With Storm Threats

Flash flood damage in Walcott. Photo by Ashelyn 
Burroughs via Facebook 

The humidity is here and we're already wilting. And getting pretty wet in the process. We have two more days to go in this oppressive spell here in Vermont. Followed by a warm weekend and several chances of thunderstorms. Some might be severe tomorrow.

So let's get into it. 

First of all, I mentioned the other day we've entered flash flood season. Vermont had its first instance of trouble yesterday amid the slow moving storms 

They were  hit and miss, and most of us were fine. But the National Weather Service in South Burlington had to issue a flash flood warning for a section of north central Vermont for heavy rains. 

Sure enough, flood damage was reported around Wolcott and Hardwick. Part of East Hill Road in Hardwick had to close for flood damage. So did a section of Bunker Hill Road in Hardwick. 

I was also concerned last night about a nearly stalled area of heavy rain along the International border near and east or Newport, but so far, I haven't heard of any trouble there. 

Now let's look at what's hitting us next:

TODAY

We started off nasty enough with gray skies, temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s and dew points at similar levels.  

We'll get well into the 80s today as that humidity continues. A few places, especially in southeast Vermont could easily top 90 degrees.  A heat advisory for "real feel" temperatures in the mid-90s is in effect in the lower Connecticut River Valley from roughly White River Junction south. 

It'll feel almost as bad in the rest of Vermont. Usually the Champlain Valley is another hot spot, but clouds and showers might keep temperatures just under 90 degrees. We'll see.

Speaking of those showers and thunderstorms, they'll roam the state again today. I'm getting somewhat mixed messages from various sources and models as to how widespread they'll be. One model, the HRRR, was fairly blasé, firing up some southern Vermont storms and maybe an isolated one in central Vermont. 

Other models get up to 60 percent of us wet by late afternoon or evening via showers and storms. In any event, they won't be as widespread as yesterday. The flash flood threat is also very low, though there could be some isolated trouble again because some storms will produce torrential rains. 

FRIDAY

We have an exciting weather day ahead with oppressive heat and the risk of strong storms 

The atmosphere over Vermont will reach its hottest point of this stretch of misery on Friday. After a stuffy overnight, temperatures will soar to 90 degrees or more in many places, espeicalluy the Champlain Valley and lower Connecticut River valleys, where heat advisories are in effect again. The western parts of Rutland and Bennington counties are included in tomorrow's heat advisory. 

The National Weather Service is mulling whether to expand tomorrow's heat advisories, but will wait for more data before deciding whether to pull the trigger. 

It will be another very humid day. Definitely take it easy out there and don't work too hard. Three days of sticky, ugly weather accumulates the heat stress.  Plus, this is the first big hot, humid spell of the season, so we're not quite used to it yet. 

While you're suffering from the heat, you're also going to need access to weather warnings, especially in the mid to late afternoon and into the evening. 

It looks like conditions will be a little better to form severe storms than we thought yesterday. The instability will be super high, so that will be a factor. An approaching cold front will start to cool the upper atmosphere and increase winds aloft. 

All those are ingredients for severe storms. The winds aloft won't be super strong, which might be limiting factor. But at this point, at least a few severe storms with strong winds are a decent bet. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has us in a level 2 out of five alert level fort severe storms. 

WARM WEEKEND

This first cold front won't have much cold air behind it. Saturday and Sunday will feature highs in the 80s. It'll be somewhat less humid, though. Another cold front will come in on Sunday with more showers and storms. Depending on the timing of the front, we could see another risk of severe storms .

Decidedly cooler weather comes in for the first part of next week with highs in the near-normal 70s.  

 

Another Severe Storm Risk Southern Vermont In The Summer Air. North To Stay Cool, Rainy Afternoon/Evening

There's a slight risk, level two of three of severe storms
today in the yellow shading. That includes southern Vermont
and central New York. Dark green indicates the possibility
of just very isolated high wind gusts with storms. 

 Our pesky stalled weather front is still with us, bringing warmth to southern Vermont and just seasonal, damp weather to the far north. 

The disparity was great again on Wednesday. In Burlington, the high was 53 degrees. Montpelier reached 57. But in Rutland, it was a summertime high of 77. Bennington reached 79 degrees.

We face yet another day of wide ranging temperatures today. And much like on Tuesday. we're in for another soaking rain north, and the risk of severe storms south. 

The front settled in south-central Vermont overnight. It will slowly lift back north as a warm front, but it probably won't reach far northern Vermont. So it will stay coolish and damp up there. The southern half of Vermont will have another summery day, one that will feel vaguely humid. 

Highs will range from just under 60 degrees at the Canadian border to around 80 degrees in the valleys near the Massachusetts border. 

SEVERE STORMS SOUTH?

I'm slightly more bullish on strong to severe storms in southern Vermont than I was Tuesday, when there were a few strong storms in far southern Vermont. But there are also factors that might prevent a lot of trouble. If the front moves a little north too slowly, it might not clear up and warm up enough to destabilize the air. 

But since the next disturbance will be approaching Vermont later in the day than on Tuesday, I think we can at least fire up some strong storms in the southern half of the state. The best chance of any severe storms would be along and south of Route 4, where NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a level 2 out of 5 risk level. 

The risk of an isolated strong wind gust or hail from a thunderstorm extends up to about Route 2, but ig anything happens in that zone, it should be very isolated. Unless our weather front surprises us and leaps further north than expected.

Always beware of weird springtime warm fronts. 

The later storm arrival schedule today will give time for storms to develop in western and central New York and reach Vermont during peak heating.  The storms will probably actually be stronger in New York state, but a few could reach the Green Mountain State at severe levels. 

That could mean pockets of damaging wind, and hail. There's a very slight chance some supercell thunderstorms could form just ahead often main batch storms. That means once again, there's a very, very low, but not quite zero chance of a brief spinup tornado. But don't focus on that. Focus on the potential wind damage in spots from storms. 

Some of the storms should also have torrential downpours. But the storms' forward motion will be fast enough to prevent much in the way of flooding. 

As always, this will be hit and miss. You won't know if a bad storm is headed your way until you see the dark clouds approaching, hear the thunder, and also maybe hear the weather warnings. 

Especially if you're going to be outdoors have a way to hear any possible warnings or weather statements.

WET NORTH

For northern Vermont, it'll be another wet day. Areas of fog and drizzle early this morning should lift somewhat, leading to relatively dry weather in the late morning and early afternoon. That's your chance to do anything you need to do outdoors. 

There might be a few spot light showers anytime after noon or so in the north. But the bulk of the rain should start to arrive around mid afternoon. The late afternoon and early evening should be quite wet in the north. The rain will taper to areas of drizzle and fog again later tonight. 

Even though northern Vermont will be along or north of that slow, nearly stalled front, that part of the state could still see some non-severe thunderstorms embedded with all the rain. 

Most of the north should see another half to three quarters of an inch of rain. A local downpour might drive the total to an inch in isolated spots. Again, even though it's wet and rivers are running kind of high, it appears the worst we can expect is very minor flooding. 

EVENING THINGS OUT

The disturbance causing today's potentially rough weather will finally be driven out.  Friday and Saturday look much more normal across the entire state. Skies will at least partly clear, and we won't see the big range in temperatures we've gotten used to this week. Highs should range from 60 far north to 70 southern Vermont valleys. So a nice day!

Saturday looks mild and breezy ahead of the next cold front, which will be coming in from the west. Enjoy Saturday, it might be the last nice day we have for awhile. 

SHARPLY COLDER

The cold front on Sunday really means business. It will throw some rain at us Saturday night. By Sunday, it will be downright chilly as temperatures during the day stay steady or fall through the 40s. 

There also might be a cost to all that warm weather in southern Vermont. Plants and trees down there will have really advanced prematurely into spring with all the balmy weather down there.  In the north, spring will not have gotten as far along, since it's been cooler. 

Monday looks frigid, with many of us not getting out of the 30s for highs. We'll have a hard freeze statewide, which could damage buds and sprouts, especially in southern Vermont where it's been really spring. 

We'll keep an eye out on that, but for now, we'll focus on the weather today. Be aware of those incoming storms central and south today. They could be doozies  

Weekend Vermont Forecast Has Gotten More Complicated, With Downpours, Severe Weather Threat Sunday

A perfect summer day Friday at Taylor Park in downtown
St. Albans, Vermont. The forecast for the rest of this
weekend has suddenly gotten more complicated. 

 This was supposed to be a nice weekend in here in Vermont.  A couple days ago, we thought there might be a couple light showers Saturday night and Sunday morning, that's it. Otherwise, it would be mostly just sunshine and low humidity.  

Well, as everything goes these days, Ma Nature has thrown in a surprise. The weather forecast has suddenly gotten more complicated. And much wetter.  

Suddenly, our oversight tonight and Sunday will feature unexpectedly high humidity, the risk of severe storms in some areas and locally heavy downpours. 

This isn't going to be an end of the world type storm. Most places will just see rain and thunder. But we're now virtually guaranteed to break the record for the most consecutive weekends with precipitation, at least as measured in Burlington. 

Burlington needs at least a trace of rain by midnight Sunday to break that record. Current forecasts call for roughly a half inch of rain there late tonight and Sunday. 

TODAY  

Today is still going to be gorgeous Vermont summer day, with sunshine and low humidity and warm temperatures rising to the low 80s. I would rate today just a mini-step down from Friday, which I will regard as the most perfect summer day we've had this year.

Afternoon temperatures Friday were comfortably warm in the 70s.  The sky was a beautiful deep blue, without a hint of that annoying wildfire smoke we keep getting. That sky was decorated by puffy clouds. The hills and mountains gleamed their rich summer green at us, and a breeze kept the summer flowers dancing in the gardens.

Today will be pretty much the same, except it will be a touch warmer. And there might be some increasing clouds later in the afternoon and into the evening, but there's no worries about rain.

It'll be a perfect day to get outside and enjoy a Green Mountain summer. Especially since tomorrow is now looking problematic. 

TONIGHT/SUNDAY

An approaching cold front now appears likely to grab some higher humidity from the south. A conglomeration of weather disturbance will come in from the west at the same time, adding some lift and energy to the atmosphere. 

That's a recipe for rain and thunderstorms.  That there will be a complicated mix of very small bits and details in this system adds some questions to the forecast. It's unclear how extensive the rain and thunderstorms will become, but now we know it'll definitely rain. And many of us will hear thunder. 

 The first band of showers will come through after midnight to around or just after dawn.  Some of the rain could contain heavy downpours and maybe some rumbles of thunder.

On Sunday, you'll notice a return of high humidity Sunday, at least for awhile, although actually temperatures won't get all that warm, with highs in the 70s to low 80s south.

The door is open for possible severe storms in much of New England.

That severe risk will run from southern Vermont, along and south of Route 4, and on into the rest of southern New England, and most of  southern New Hampshire and coastal Maine.   

Straight line winds and microbursts are the main threat.  As usual, only a few places in the risk zone would actually see a severe storm. Most places won't be so bad.

How many severe storms form depends a lot on how much sun comes out behind the initial band of storms early Sunday and how quickly a sharp cold front comes in from the northwest. 

Northern areas look to be too far removed from the best instability, so they should be safe from severe weather  Plus, a sharp cold front will hit northern areas first, putting an end to the rains by afternoon.  In fact, if northern Vermont is lucky, they could see a sharp drop in humidity and clearing skies by mid to late afternoon. It all depends on the timing of everything. 

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center also has a marginal, low level risk of flash flooding from this, but most meteorologists think we won't 'see enough rain to create trouble.  There will be some torrential downpours, but the storms will be moving along too fast to dump excessive amounts of rain in any one spot. 

A few places could see an inch or more of rain out of this,  but most of us will see something in the neighborhood of a half inch. Note that since the ingredients to this system are complicated, results may vary. We could still see another surprise or two out of this. 

BEYOND SUNDAY

This still looks like it's shaping up to be at least one of the coolest stretches of July weather we've seen in several years. 

You'll wake up to a cool Monday morning, then highs will only get to the low 70s at best in many locations. Some northern areas might not get out of the 60s. All that is a good ten degrees cooler than  normal for this time of year. 

Monday night will get into the 40s in many areas, but probably stay in the low 50s in warmer valleys. The cool high pressure system should stall briefly near us, keeping us sunny, dry and relatively cool on Tuesday. (Highs in the 70s)

We'll finally see a return southerly air flow starting Wednesday, so it should turn noticeably warmer and somewhat more humid for the end of the week.  At this point, it doesn't look like it'll get into the 90s again, but, as usual, no guarantees!  

Another Day Of 90 Degree Vermont Heat Wednesday; Possible Severe Weather Today, Then.... Ahhhhhhh!

Best chance of severe storms today is in northern
New England (yellow shaded area). Southern
Quebec might actually see a couple tornadoes, and
there is an extremely low but not zero chance
of a brief spinup in far northern Vermont. 

The high temperature in Burlington Wednesday reached 93 degrees, making it the fifth time this month and the ninth this year so far in which it got into the 90s. 

We're having another summer in which hot weather is overstaying its Vermont welcome.

In this age of climate change, 90 degree weather has definitely gotten more common.

I took a look at records from Burlington regarding hot weather. Out of the past 125 Julys, only 29 of them, including this year, had five or more days with 90 degree temperatures. Eleven of those Julys have happened just since 2010. 

There's a slim chance Burlington could make it to 90 degrees again today, but clouds, showers and thunderstorms might prevent that. 

But you never know. Of course, we're only halfway through the month, and I don't know whether it will hit 90 again this month or even this year. 

We've already had nine days with 90 degree heat this year, including the four such days we had in June.   Each of the past eleven years have had eight or more days with 90 degree temperatures in Burlington. 

 On average over the past century, the average number of such days annually is close to six.  And that average has been skewed upward slightly by the large number of hot days over the past decade or so. 

HEAT AND STORMS  

Today, we'll need to continue worrying about oppressive high temperatures and humidity, and we're going to throw the risk of severe storms into the mix. Those storms are for a good cause, though. More on that in a minute.

The low temperature in Burlington this morning was 80 degrees. That would tie the record for highest low temperature for any date. However, it'll get well below 80 degrees by midnight tonight, so the record won't in fact end up being tied.

Still this muggy morning portends an another awful days. Despite clouds and some scattered showers and isolated storms out there this morning, we'll  have no trouble reaching well into the 80s today, with some spot 90 degree readings, especially in southeast Vermont. The humidity will remain sky high all day.

But there is a cold front coming our way.  That will interact with the heat and humidity to produce some thunderstorms this afternoon. As always, they'll tend to be hit and miss, with some towns getting nailed, others getting "meh" type storms and others getting practically nothing at all.

The best chance of strong to severe thunderstorms is in central and northern Vermont (and northern parts of New York, New Hampshire and Maine).  NOAA has these areas under a "slight" or level 2 on a five point risk scale of severe thunderstorms. Further south, there might only be an isolated strong to severe storm or two.

Northern areas are a little more under the gun because they're closer to a low pressure system that is support the cold front. That low pressure puts a little spin in the atmosphere. There could even be a few supercells, though those are more likely in southern Quebec. Environment Canada has already issued a severe thunderstorm watch for southern Quebec, including Montreal and Quebec City today. 

The main threat from these storms are damaging straight line winds. There is a still a very low, but not zero chance of a brief, weak spin up tornado in northern or central Vermont.  But again, the chances of any twisters is more likely in southern Quebec.  

There is still a marginal chance of a local instance of flash flooding or two. With all this humidity, the rainfall with these storms will be absolutely torrential. A saving grace is these storms won't be able to stall over one particular spot for very long, which minimizes the chance that inches upon inches of rain would fall. 

I'd stay weather aware, but the chances of you seeing a tornado are exceptionally remote. But if you get a severe thunderstorm warning, definitely take shelter in a sturdy building. Those winds can really cause damage even with no tornado.

BIG RELIEF

When you go to bed this evening, it might still feel awfully humid, with or without the storms. By the time you get up Friday morning, you will notice a HUGE change in the air.

The temperature at dawn will be down in the upper 50s north, 60s south. But the humidity will have crashed. 

The dew point is near 70 today, with is oppressive. By tomorrow morning that dew point will be in the 50s, which is soooo comfortable. The last time we had truly comfortable, dry air in Vermont was July 5, so we were really overdue for this relief. 

 During the day tomorrow, the dew point will stay in the refreshing upper 40s and 50s, with highs only in the 70s. With maybe near 80 in some of the warmer valleys. 

The whole weekend will be on the comfortable side. Saturday looks gorgeous, with highs in the 76 to 83 degrees.  That'll come with sunshine and that low humidity. 

A reinforcing cold front looks like it will come through Saturday night with a few showers. Maybe even a rumble of thunder.

 If it does rain, especially where things are measured in Burlington,  it would make it the 31st weekend in a row with precipitation, which will be a new record for most consecutive weekends with rain or snow.

Sunday and Monday look like they will stay refreshingly cool-ish with humidity staying on the low side.  It does look like some very warm air and humidity will return during the middle or end of next week, but I don't know yet how bad it will get or how long it might last.  

On Flood Anniversary, Vermont Risk Of Flash Flooding Increases A Bit, Still Not Nearly As Dire As Last 2 Years

Parts of Vermont and northeast New York got a slight
bump up in the risk level of severe storms. Earlier
forecasts had us in the dark green marginal risk
meaning isolated instances of damaging winds.
It's now "slight" meaning scattered instances, not
just isolated cases of bad storm winds. 

UPDATE 1 PM THURSDAY

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has increased the risk level for flash flooding in Vermont this afternoon and evening. 

Instead of a marginal risk of isolated instances of flash flooding, (level 1 out of 4 risk) we're at what is known as slight risk, which is level 2 out of 4 in the risk categories.

This means instead of just a 5 percent chance or so of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of your location, there is now a 15 percent chance or even somewhat better than that chance of seeing flooding in that radius.

This is because the developing storms are slow movers. We could see pockets of two to four inches of rain in a few spots. 

Flash flooding could happen anywhere around Vermont today, , but I still think the highest chance of flash flooding is in the Northeast Kingdom, where there have been local downpours all morning. 

Ominously, a flood warning already had already been issued around the town of Orleans in the Northeast Kingdom

I'll emphasize that we're still NOT going to see anything nearly as widespread or destructive as we did on July 10-11 last year or the year before. 

Most of us will be just fine today and tonight, and most of us will still see much less than two inches of rain.  An inch of rain, if you manage to get that, won't cause any flood issues. 

Updated risk map increases the flash flood threat in
Vermont a bit to slight, level two out of four on the
risk scale, as you can see below, it was earlier
just marginal, a level one out of four on the risk scale,

But I do think there will be some scattered areas of trouble in Vermont today. This could be the third year in a row with flood issues on this date. 

Stay tuned to your weather radar through the day and into the evening to receive warnings of local flash flooding or spots where severe thunderstorms could trigger damaging winds. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

I guess July 10 and 11 have become a weather tradition in Vermont. 

It seems either something really bad happens, like the big floods of July 10, 2023 and 2024, or everything is fine, but something interesting happens with the weather. 

Not every July 10 and 11 is weather weird, of course. Historically, most of them are pretty routine, like any date of the year. But the dates often bring at least something vaguely noteworthy. 

The chilliest temperature of July, 2022 in Burlington came on July 10.  The low of 50 was not all that cold for July, but is still the coolest July temperature since 2015. July 10, 2020 was the hottest day of the month, with a high of 95 and a low of 75 in Burlington.

When I was a kid, July 11, 1976 stands out as one of the worst local flash floods I've ever seen, striking parts of Rutland County. Going way back to 1888, it snowed like hell for a time on the Green Mountain summits. 

As mentioned in my Wednesday post, today won't be a repeat of the hell we went through in 2023 and 2024. 

Today will just bring us some interesting doses of showers and thunderstorms.  Some of which seem destined to cause local spots of trouble here and there in the Green Mountain State.   So you'll need to stay on your toes. 

THIS MORNING'S SET UP

An area of heavy rain that caused flash flooding in the Mid-Atlantic States last evening moved into southeast New England today, where flash flooding from up to six inches of rain hit earlier this morning 

We don't have to worry about those annoying downpours,  as they will keep moving off to the northeast off the New England coast.

But here in Vermont, it was already a bit interesting as of 8 a.m. There were already some widely scattered pinpoint, slow moving downpours around the state. 

That's a hint right there we will have no trouble generating a bunch of showers and storms during the day today. It's hard to know exactly how each storm will develop and move, but what follows is a decent guess. 

Flash flood risk in Vermont is still marginal, meaning at
most isolated instances os flash floods. The yellow areas
have a somewhat higher risk of flash floods. 

Breezes going up the slopes of the Green Mountains should generate storms along those mountains. Maybe pretty early in the day, before noon.  Those should then drift eastward into the Northeast Kingdom and the Connecticut Valley.

The rest is complicated. The storms could generate outflow gusts that will interact with other weak disturbances coming in from New York State, which would then drift eastward into the Champlain Valley later this afternoon. 

 Eventually, they'll head through the Green Mountains into the eastern Vermont toward evening.

Other random storms could pop up just about anywhere else during the day and evening today.  

Most of the storms won't be super awful. However, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of Vermont and northeast New York  to a level two slight risk level for severe storms, which means scattered instances of severe storms, Until earlier this morning, the risk forecast was lower with only a marginal risk of isolated instances of severe storms.  

If severe storms form, they'll produce damaging winds in a few spots. There's also a risk of damaging hail, but that risk is pretty low. 

The storms will also move sluggishly.   With heavy downpours. If you're unlucky enough to have a storm stall over year, or get hit by several of them, there could be a local flash flood problem. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center is still watching the current marginal risk of local flash floods.  

As of today, it would take probably two inches of rain within three hours to start flash flooding in most parts of Vermont.  A few isolated places in the state could see up to three inches in that time frame, hence the small risk of those flash floods,

I'll emphasize that the vast majority of us will see much less than three inches of rain today, which is why we won't have any widespread problems with high water. Still, take any flash flood warning seriously. If you're under such a warning, stick to high ground. Don't drive over a flooded road, as it could be washed away or undermined.

A flash flood could develop anywhere, but I'd say they'd happen in the Green Mountains or Northeast Kingdom. 

You'll want to have a weather  radio with you today, or at least some way to receive severe thunderstorm or flash flood warnings, just in case. 

But again, Ill stress that meteorologists expect nothing close to the scale we saw last year and the year before.  

HEAT

It's humid out there, and it will stay that way. The little boundary in New York that's helping to set off today's storms isn't really a cold front. It will have gone by us tomorrow, so we expect storms to be few and far between on Friday.

Temperatures are  going to go up again, too. The clouds and storms should hold temperatures today in the upper 70s eastern Vermont to low 80s west.  Starting tomorrow and on through at least next Wednesday, daily highs in Vermont should get into the mid and upper 80s. With a few 90 degree readings thrown in here and there.

The humidity will stay high, so nights will be stuffy too.  Not a good week coming up if you don't have air conditioning, I'm afraid.

Given the heat and humidity, there's a chance of a scattered storm or two each afternoon and evening, but most places will be dry most of the time. The best chances of storms at this point look like they'll be around later Sunday and maybe Monday.  

After A Stormy Vermont Thursday, A Delightful Fourth, And Then Summer Returns

The first round of strong to severe thunderstorms
approaching South Burlington, Vermont early
Thursday afternoon. The storms caused scattered
wind and hail damage throughout the state, and 
disrupted some pre-Fourth celebrations 

 That NOAA outlook for yesterday indicating Vermont and the rest of New England should watch out for severe thunderstorms certainly came true. 

Numerous reports of wind damage and hail came in from all six New England states, along with New York and New Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania. 

Here in Vermont, two rounds of strong storms hit, one early in the afternoon, the next toward evening. 

The evening round surprised me a bit because it was the stronger of the two, and came after cooler air had already started arriving. 

It shows that some summertime weather disturbances can really pack a punch, even if they're not really feeding on hot, humid air to power them. 

Two rounds of damaging storms blew through Thursday. 

The first round in the early afternoon mostly affected mostly northern Vermont, knocking down trees near Keeler Bay in the Champlain Islands and cutting power to areas in and around St. Albans. The early afternoon storm knocked over a tree onto a parking lot at the University of Vermont, damaging a car.

That first line of storms made its way down to Rutland County by mid-afternoon, dumping hail. Hail the size of ping pong balls pelted East Wallingford, and quarter sized hail hit Danby. I'm sure a few people there have dented cars this morning.  

The second batch of storms roared out of New York State, crossed Lake Champlain and basically traveled down Interstate 89 before cutting through east central Vermont.  Winds at Sand Bar State Park in Milton gusted to 58 mph.

 More trees and wires came down in parts of Burlington, and in Essex, Montpelier and certainly a few other places.

At one point Thursday evening, about 8,500 homes and businesses were without power in Vermont.

Burlington does its fireworks display on July 3 and a crowd had already gathered at the city's waterfront when this storm hit. The storm prompted a hasty evacuation as lightning crackled overhead. The storms moved on pretty quickly, so fireworks later in the evening went off without a hitch, however. Montpelier also cut off its Fourth of July festivities Thursday due to the severe weather. 

 That second round of storms brought some cold air down from aloft. Thursday evening was chilly!  Temperatures were only in the upper 50s in parts of the state in the hours before sunset. 

Overall, Thursday was one of the busiest and most disruptive storm days in Vermont's 2025 severe weather season

TODAY/WEEKEND

Today, the Fourth of July, will certainly not be one of the stormiest days of the summer. 

There are a bunch of so-called "fair weather clouds" out there. Air high above us is still chilly. The strong early July sun creates updrafts of air. Moisture in that rising air condenses into clouds once it hits the cooler air, so you get some clouds. 

The sun will be in and out all day. The sunniest area will be the Champlain and Lower Connecticut River valleys.  The cloudiest areas will be in the Green Mountain and Northeast Kingdom. But everyone should see at least some sun for the rest of the day. 

Towns holding fireworks displays this evening should be A-OK, with partly clear to clear skies and great visibility. You might want to bring a light jacket. Temperatures should drop from the 70s to the low and mid 60s after sunset. Those temperatures should bottom out in the 50s by early Saturday morning, with some 40s in the cold spots.

Saturday looks awesome with generally sunny skies, and temperatures in most spots reaching the 80s. 

We're still looking at a brief squirt of hot,  humid air Sunday. Many Vermont communities will make it to at least 90 degrees.   

Brief Vermont Saturday Evening Storm Update: Chances Increase Of Wild Early Morning Storms

From weather.us this is just one of many possible ways
weather radar will look like in Vermont at 3 a.m. Monday.
Some forecasts have ferocious storms coming through
Vermont early Sunday while others depict nothing
too serious. We won't know which it is until storms
are right on our doorstep.

 Still no guarantees as of early this evening of what kind of storminess Vermont and surrounding areas will see in the hours before dawn Sunday.  

But chances appear to have increased that some loud - and maybe dangerous - storms might come through. Especially in the northern half of the state.

If all this happens, the likeliest time for this to hit is between 2 and 7 a.m. Sunday. 

Hopefully this will turn out to be a somewhat decaying batch of storms, and we either just get some rain, or maybe some loud storms and downpours but nothing worse than lost sleep. 

But this type of situation can be volatile.  A complex of storms riding along the northern edge of a heat wave in the early morning hours has the potential to produce some violent storms.  

That sort of thing happened along the northern edge of a record-breaking heat wave in July, 1995 when a violent derecho crossed out of Canada, through the Adirondacks into southern Vermont and other parts of eastern New York and New England,  

We really won't know until whether we'll have damaging thunderstorms until they are on our doorstep around or just after midnight. Indications early this evening are leaning a little more toward the idea of strong post-midnight Vermont storms.

Thankfully, some - but not all -  of those early indications hint that maybe the storms might be weakening some on approach to Vermont. Again, not guaranteed, but something to watch. 

Some forecast models depict some pretty ferocious thunderstorms coming through in the wee hours. Other models really show nothing special overnight and into Sunday morning. Take your pick I guess. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has ticked up the threat level from marginal (storm level risk one out of five to slight (threat level two out of five) in the northwestern two thirds of Vermont. 

This type of weather situation is probably the most difficult for meteorologists to accurately forecast, even just a few hours ahead of the event. 

If there are any bad storms the biggest problem would be destructive straight line winds. Large hail could also come down with a couple of these. 

Again, there's no guarantee we'll have severe storms, but just in case, secure loose outdoor objects this evening or bring them indoors.  If you're camping out in the woods or know somebody who is, let them know to have a way to get warnings so they can scoot to a sturdy shelter. Falling trees while camping is no joke. Four campers died in the Adirondacks in the July, 1995 derecho.

I'd have a weather radio or some sort of phone in your bedroom overnight to warn you if a particularly intense thunderstorm is headed your way. You'll want to know because if it's a worst case scenario, you'd want to get into the basement or interior room away from windows.

The absolute worst case scenario would be like July, 1995 with a few towns gusting to  70 to 90 mph. That's highly unlikely early Sunday, but there's a non-zero chance of it. Better safe than sorry! 

 After that, of course the heat arrives, A heat advisory is up for most of Vermont for heat indexes of up to 102 degrees on Monday and Tuesday. The Champlain Valley is under a more dire and for Vermont rare extreme heat warning is in effect Monday and Tuesday for a heat index of around 105 degrees.  

I'll have more on this tomorrow after we get through the potential storms later tonight.

Saturday Morning Vermont Update: Iffy Forecast On Big Storms Late Tonight, But Definite Dangerous Heat Coming

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has a slight chance
(Level 2 of 5 risk) in New York and a marginal chance
(Level 1 of 5 risk) in Vermont of severe storms late 
tonight. There's more uncertainty in that storm 
outlook than normal due to an unusual weather pattern.

As the headline suggests, we have kind of a complicated forecast for the potential for possibly strong storms late tonight and Sunday. 

But there's no question dangerous heat is on the way for later Sunday through Tuesday.

We'll get to all that day by day as we usually do here. 

But first, we'll check in with the winds of Friday.

Those strong west winds Friday morning and afternoon led to tragedy across the pond from Vermont in Chazy, New York. 

Strong gusts toppled a large tree in Chazy onto a truck occupied by Chazy Central Rural School senior and star softball play Kennedy Columbus, 18, of Chazy, WPTZ reported.  The impact of the falling tree made the overturn and hit a utility pole, causing power lines to arc.  Columbus was set to graduate from high school next week. 

Here in Vermont, the gusty winds had power outages across the state peaking at about 3,500 at around 11 a.m. Friday.  

TODAY:

That cold front provided us a welcome clear and cool night last night. It was in the upper 40s and low 50s at dawn across Vermont this morning. I put on some fleece in the house early this morning for a time. I won't need that fleece in the coming few days, that's for sure. 

Most Saturdays over the past few months in Vermont have had bad weather, so today's going to be a treat. Highs will reach to near 80 under mostly sunny skies and comfortable humidity levels.

But our long streak of consecutive weekends with rain will continue late tonight. However, we still don't know whether that rain come in the form benign moderate showers or  dangerous thunderstorms.

TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING:

This is the complicated part of the forecast, so bear with me. 

A cluster of powerful storms formed in North Dakota yesterday. These things are known as Mesoscale Convective Systems or MCS.  

This thing spun off at least 13 tornadoes in North Dakota and caused some towns in that state to experience straight line winds of more than 90 mph.  

The MCS continued on across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, on across Lake Superior and was headed into Ontario early this morning.  It's  running along the northern edge of extreme heat in the central U.S. and cooler air to the north.

That extreme heat is heading north and east toward Ontario, southern Quebec and of course us here in New England, so the MCS or a redeveloped version of it should continue on through Ontario and southwestern Quebec by tonight.

The big question is how this will affect us here in Vermont. 

Early estimates are the core of this dangerous complex of storms would pass through Quebec, up near or north of Montreal late tonight. 

As the National Weather Service in South Burlington explained it in their Saturday morning forecast discussion, there is sometimes a LOT of instability in these overnight situations just south of the core of the MCS. 

That could lead to some strong to severe thunderstorms after midnight and early Sunday. One scenario is that those severe thunderstorms would remain north of the border and be Quebec's problem. Mostly northern and central Vermont would just get some moderate rain and some dying garden variety thunderstorms.

Or, some of those severe storms could come south of the border, causing locally damaging winds and a chaotic early morning of lots of lightning, loud bangs of thunder, and torrential rains.

Outflow from the Quebec storms could briefly leave a cool pool of air aloft over Vermont Sunday morning,  which would then start to get overwhelmed by the hot, humid air coming in. Could this set off a few more strong storms for parts of Sunday? Possible, but we don't know.

These types of storms on the leading edge of hot air are some of the most difficult weather events to forecast. We won't know for sure what's going on until the system is practically on top of us. Which would be late tonight. 

Most of us are trying to sleep at that hour. So one way or another, we'll probably be surprised. 

THE HEAT

We do know the hot, humid air will blast in during the day Sunday. There's already heat advisories for the some of valleys of southern Vermont for the afternoon as temperatures there climb to near 90 degrees amid stifling humidity. 

The hot, muggy air will be firmly in place Sunday night and Monday. 

A rare for Vermont extreme heat watch is already in effect for the Champlain and lower Connecticut River valleys Monday. Actual temperatures in those valleys Monday will be in the mid to upper 90s, but it will feel like it's 105 or so out there. 

The rest of Vermont will be dangerously hot, too. As we've previously mentioned, this will go through Tuesday. 

I'll have  more on the heat wave in upcoming posts, but I figure we'll get through the storm potential for late tonight and Sunday first. 

Vermont Weekend Weather Gets Interesting, And Wet. And Maybe Severe Storms?

A small magnolia tree I planted a couple years ago
was getting ready to bloom this morning as clouds
threatening rain loomed over St. Albans, Vermont
We have another rainy Saturday, with the risk
of a few strong to severe thunderstorms in
far southern parts of the state this afternoon and evening, 

 Parts of Vermont got a taste on Friday of the kind of weather we'll see this weekend, and most of the upcoming week:  Wet, with a chance of stronger storms or heavy rain in some spots. 

While some areas of Vermont turned sunny and warm Friday afternoon after a murky morning, others had bigger concerns. 

For instance, a strong thunderstorm  late in the afternoon and early evening basically traveled west to east along Route 4 from New York, all the way through Rutland and White River Junction and out into New Hampshire. 

The storm wasn't really damaging, but it had some torrential downpours and gusty winds and lightning. It got people's attention, 

The was the start of a setup that for several days will keep southern Vermont very wet, and northern Vermont unsettled, but not quite so soggy. 

In the short term - meaning today -  people in southern Vermont will need to keep a wary eye to the sky. There could be some severe thunderstorms, believe it or not.

In the longer term, later in the week, we'll have to watch for the risk of southern Vermont flooding. So far, that risk is low, but bears watching. More on that after I get into today's storms.

SEVERE RISK

This weather pattern is featuring a stalled weather front, with little ripples of storms running southwest to northeast along it. Today the front is draped across Vermont. The front also extends southwestward all the way to the Gulf Coast. That helps ensure a feed of moisture for potential rain and storms for the length of this long, slow moving front.  

On the warmer, eastern side of the front, atmospheric conditions will create a narrow band of severe storm potential from the western Carolinas all the way  up into central New England 

That narrow band of possible severe thunderstorms clips southern Vermont.  The far south of the state is in a level 2 alert on a five point scale for severe storm potential. That means scattered severe storms. In other words, a few towns in far southern Vermont could experience damaging winds from some of these storms.

A level one or marginal risk extends as far north as Route 4, meaning there could be a brief, isolated instance of damaging winds, but most places will be fine. 

By the way there is a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup tornado with this in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York and into central New England. That tiny twister risk extends a little into Vermont, probably up to Route 9 or so. In this zone, there's a two percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point within that risk area.

Further north in Vermont, there's no risk of any severe weather, or even thunderstorms for that matter. But showers are moving in. They, of course, will be most likely late this morning through mid-afternoon, when so many people have so many Saturday outdoor plans. 

It is Green Up Day in Vermont, an annual early May event in which hundreds or thousands of volunteers fan out along the state's roadways pickup up trash that accumulated over the winter, 

So yes, it's the seventh Saturday in a row with rain,

RAINY WEEK

This nearly stalled weather pattern is expected to persist until Thursday at least. Through this episode, it does look like the heaviest rain will fall in southern Vermont with lighter amounts north. 

Areas this week with the most torrential rains look like they'll be in southern New York, parts of southern New England and areas around Pennsylvania and New Jersey.  Flooding is a possibility in those places,

These sluggish weather patterns, with that cut off upper low pressure hanging around the Northeast, are pretty unpredictable, though, as I mentioned yesterday. So we'll need to watch to see whether even heavier rain creeps into southern Vermont during the week. 

That's a big question mark, but if it does, we'll need to monitor for flooding. So far, the risk looks low, but worth paying attention to. 

Storm That Gave Us Ice In Vermont Is Even More Dangerous And Weird Elsewhere And There's Going To Be A Second Big Storm

That huge orange and yellow area in the middle of the 
nation represents a vast area subject to severe 
thunderstorms and tornadoes today. 

 Sure, it's been miserable in Vermont with this weekend's storm with snow, damaging ice, cold rain and yuck.  

This storm is also causing other problems far and wide.  The worst part of this storm is the severe storm and tornado outbreak that's about to unfold

SEVERE WEATHER

A remarkably huge area of the nation is under threat from damaging thunderstorm winds, huge hail and tornadoes today.  And some of the tornadoes could end up being strong. 

The risk zone today goes from western New York and extreme southern Ontario all the way to the Gulf Coast It also extends from Missouri and Illinois all the way to the western Appalachians. 

This whole area is under the gun from later this morning through tonight for those lines of severe storms and tornadoes.  The highest risk zone for those tornados is in the mid-Mississippi valley, including western Kentucky and Tennessee, eastern Missouri and Arkansas and the northern half of Alabama.

MORE STORMS MONDAY

The severe weather and tornadoes continue tomorrow. This time it will be up and down the East Coast from the eastern Gulf Coast all the way up to New York. 

The greatest risk of tornados runs from Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida and Virginia. A marginal risk of storms with gusty winds extends as far north as southwestern Vermont. 

The severe threat will not be over once the storm departs later Monday, the threat of tornadoes doesn't end. 

ICE STORM

Damage from last night's ice storm in Ontario

It wasn't just us in Vermont that suffered damage from the weight of ice on trees and power lines. 

This storm spread freezing rain far and wide in a band from Wisconsin and northern Michigan, through southern Ontario, across northern New York and into northern New England. 

Residents of northern Michigan were told to shelter in place inside their homes due to the danger of falling and collapsing trees outdoors. 

About 225,000 thousand Ontario residents were without power because of the storm. 

In Michigan, 150,000 people were without power because of the ice this morning. Another 62,000 or so had no electricity in Wisconsin. 

WEIRD TEMPERATURES

The storm set up an extreme and weird temperature contrast in the Northeast on Saturday. 

 At 4 p.m. Saturday, it was 35 degrees in Boston with a little light snow. In New York City's Central Park, it was partly sunny and 80 degrees. 

The weather front dividing the two extremes moved southwestward into the New York City and New Jersey areas yesterday evening.  At 5 p.m. the front had passed through LaGuardia airport east of Manhattan and the temperature there was 51 degrees Also at 5 p.m. the front hadn't reached Central Park in Manhattan yet, so it was still 79 degrees there. 

However, an hour later, at 6 p.m. it was down to 53 in Central Park. 

NEW STORM 

A big new storm is forecast to develop in Colorado Tuesday and move northeastward toward the Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday. 

A widespread severe storm and tornado outbreak is forecast to hit the same areas being hit today.  No rest of the weary!

Late Friday Afternoon Update: All Hell Breaking Out In Plains, Midwest: Dust And Fires Storms, Extreme Winds, Intense Thunderstorms

Highway pileup near Canyon, Texas after a dust storm
reduced visibility to zero on Interstate 27.

 While we here in Vermont blissfully enjoyed a gorgeous, warm, sunny early spring day, the weather has turned violent across huge areas of the Plains and Midwest. 

This was expected, as you might have read in my post this morning.

But really, things have gotten insane. In a lot of places.

I'll give you a quick update now, with even more details to come tomorrow morning. Spoiler: Saturday will be an exceptionally dangerous weather day in much of the South. 

Today has been bad enough. I have plenty of examples and receipts, and I'll give you a few scary ones here. 

Dry, intense winds have gusted as high as 83 mph around Amarillo this afternoon. The winds cut power to parts of the city, and dust storms have reduced visibility to near zero on area highways. Video on social media shows several tractor trailer trucks toppling over on Amarillo-area highways. 

South of Amarillo, near the towns of Canyon and Happy, zero visibility in blowing dust caused a major highway pileup along Interstate 27.  Details are still sketchy, but as many as 50 vehicles might have been involved. No word yet on injuries or deaths. 

The dust storms extended over huge areas, including large swaths of New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas. Winds were gusting to 70 mph or more in large areas of the Plains. Multiple car crashes due to bad visibility in the dust storms have also been reported in Oklahoma. 

The extreme winds are combining with incredibly low humidity to create firestorms, too. 

Visible satellite photo showing massive amounts of dust
blowing though New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma 
this afternoon amid wind gusts reaching
hurricane force in some areas.

Numerous fire warnings were in effect in Oklahoma, forcing evacuations of some towns and neighborhoods. Some of the fires were in heavily developed towns, like the Oklahoma City suburbs of Edmond and Norman. 

The anticipated severe thunderstorms just started developing mid to late afternoon. A strengthening line of severe thunderstorms extended in a curving band across extreme eastern Nebraska, southwest Iowa and western Missouri late this afternoon.

The storms were producing destructive winds and hail. Rotating supercell thunderstorms were lurking in this line, and with the storms expected to head east and get worse, a tornado watch was posted for parts of Arkansas, eastern Missouri and western Illinois.

Even without the tornadoes, some of these thunderstorms could carry straight line wind gusts of up to 100 mph. 

Strong overnight tornadoes are feared later on in much of Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi

Meanwhile a blizzard warning was posted for eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota.

To give you an idea of how weird it is out there. Marshall, Minnesota was among the cities under a blizzard warning, but it was 74 degrees there late this afternoon. By dawn Saturday, heavy snow, strong winds and temperatures in the upper 20s were forecast for Marshall. 

On Saturday, a relatively rare high risk alert has been declared for expected intense tornadoes in Mississippi and Alabama. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts are usually written in pretty sober fashion, but this sentence in today's update made me sit up and take notice:

"Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening."

It's going to be a long, horrible weekend for much of the United States.

VERMONT EFFECTS

Gawd, as mentioned, today was gorgeous. Typical of late April, really, not mid-March.  It got up to at least 60 degrees in Burlington today, which is a full 20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. 

It'll be even warmer Saturday with highs in many spots in the mid-60s.

Warm, oddly humid weather is on tap for Sunday as rain and wind arrives. To nobody's surprise, the National Weather Service office in South Burlington has issued a flood watch for all of Vermont and northeast New York. 

The flood watch runs from Sunday morning through Monday evening. Rain isn't even really going to arrive to any great extent until Sunday afternoon, but the snow melt ahead of the rain could even be enough to trigger flooding. 

The most likely timing of flooding would be from late Sunday afternoon through early Monday afternoon. We're still monitoring how high rivers might rise and how ice jams might affect flooding

Watch this space for more updates.  

Grave Weather Danger Today, Tomorrow in Plains, Midwest, South, While We In Vermont Watch The Snow Disappear In An Instant

Much of the nation is bracing for a couple very dangerous weather days today and tomorrow, because, as expected, a powerful storm is now forming.  

An immense area of the the U.S. is under fire danger alerts
today. The dark red and especially pink areas of the
map are at particular risk for erratic, fast moving
wild and rangeland fires that could blow into towns.

That storm is planning some real havoc.

Maybe the most impressive part of this storm is the huge areas that are subject to the three main hazards from this system - tornadoes and severe thunderstorms;  high winds not associated with thunderstorms and wildfires. 

The overall forecast hasn't changed much since I described this looming storm yesterday. It's just that the predictions have become more certain, and in some cases more threatening than we thought just 24 hours ago. 

HIGH WINDS

The high wind warning and watch zone is just immense, extending from New Mexico to North Dakota and east as far as Ohio.

Through this whole area, winds are expected to gust to 60 mph, with several areas forecasting gust to 70 or even 80 mph.  Given the vast population affected, you're going to see an incredible number of power outages, trees down, that sort of thing. 

WILDFIRES

Worse, an immense portion of the high wind zone is also incredibly dry as the storm rushes arid air out of the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico.

The result is a very dangerous wildfire situation, and I can't recall seeing anything quite like this. The area with a wildfire risk today is immense, covering New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas and extending in a broad band all the way to southern Michigan and Ohio.

Experts are most concerned about Texas, Oklahoma and parts of Kansas, where the wind will be particularly strong, humidity especially low, and a landscape that was parched even before this new threat came along. 

As I mentioned yesterday, today's wildfires won't necessarily be contained to open rangeland with no buildings. The areas with the highest fire danger today have a total population of more than 25 million. You can see how a rangeland fire can sweep into exurbs and suburbs of larger cities like Oklahoma City or Dallas or San Antonio or Wichita. 

Worst case scenario is we could lose a lot of homes to fires today. 

As a prelude, a fast-moving rangeland fire near Colorado Springs forced temporary evacuations and burned three outbuildings on Wednesday. Firefighters were able to keep the flames out of nearby homes. 

Another unusual aspect of this is the risk of "dry thunderstorms" in parts of Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. Dry thunderstorms are practically rainless storms that spit out lightning which in turn causes fires.

Dry thunderstorms are fairly common during fire season in the Rocky Mountains and West, but very rare in the Plains. 

These dry thunderstorms will be the beginning of an immense outbreak of dangerous storms and tornadoes.  

TORNADOES/SEVERE WEATHER

Easily the biggest threat from this storm is what looks like will be a massive outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. 

Another huge area is under the gun for tornadoes and 
intense, dangerous thunderstorms today. The orange
and red areas are most at risk. This is just for today.
Another huge area of the South and Midwest
can expect more tornadoes and intense storms
on Saturday and maybe Sunday, too. 

Those dry thunderstorms today will be the opening salvo into what might become one of the largest March outbreaks of severe storms and tornadoes we've seen in years. 

Those "dry storms" will move into a more humid environment, and more storms will blossom today. Meteorologists with NOAA's Storm Prediction Center expect an intense squall line or derecho to form this afternoon and sweep quickly across the Mid-Mississippi valley. 

Wind gusts with the storms could reach 70 to 90 mph.  This squall line will probably have some tornadoes embedded within in, too. Its forward motion will be very fast, too. That means there won't be much time to hunker down as the storm races toward a particular location. 

As you get down into eastern Arkansas, Missouri and southern Illinois, forecasters expect supercell thunderstorms to form and quickly produce tornadoes.  Some of the tornadoes could become quite strong, so it wouldn't be just a matter of a couple damaged barn roofs and trees.

If one of these strong tornadoes hits a town, there'd be a ton of destruction and the risk of some deaths.  The risk of these twisters will extend well after dark, which makes them more dangerous. People often are unaware of warnings at night, and of course can't see a tornado coming at night. 

Today, unfortunately is just the beginning.

A renewed wave of storms and tornadoes is likely Saturday, focusing on the Gulf Coast states and on north into Tennessee.  Mississippi and Alabama appear to be particularly in the crosshairs with this one. "Multiple, long-track, high-end tornadoes will be possible," NOAA' Storm Prediction Center said I'm their latest briefing.

Alabama tornado expert James Spann this morning was telling people in the threatened area to not to   turn on their "do not disturb" feature so that you get warnings.

He also told people to have bicycle, baseball or motorcycle helmets ready to wear when taking shelter from a potential strong tornado.  That'll help protect your head from flying debris.  He also suggested carrying an air horn to your save place. If the  house collapses and you can't get out,  use the air horn to alert rescuers. 

The threat of severe storms and tornadoes will move on to the East Coast on Sunday.

On top of all this, parts of Kentucky, Tennessee and West Virginia that saw severe, deadly flooding in February look poised to endure yet another flood with this upcoming storm.  

VERMONT EFFECTS

For us, too the forecast is essentially unchanged, with a flood threat unfolding Sunday into Monday. 

Rivers will start to slowly rise today and tomorrow as highs in many towns get well into the 50s and in many cases low to mid 60s.  No flooding is expected through Saturday, except possibly near ice jams. 

We'll have to keep our eyes on those existing ice jams starting later today and through the weekend.  They could move, or get worse, causing some local flooding here and there.   Parts of the Winooski, Lamoille and especially Missisquoi rivers are jammed up with ice at the moment. 

Sunday into Monday will bring the highest threat.  It's still a little soon to predict how high most Vermont rivers will get, but minor flooding at least seems a good bet.  There could be areas of moderate flooding, which is the level at which you start seeing some real damage. 

Remaining snow will melt super quickly Sunday, as conditions will be perfect for getting rid of snow. Temperatures will be in the 60s, humidity will be high for this time of year and gusty winds will drive that warm, humid air into the snowpack, causing that rapid meltdown. 

The vast storm's cold front  arriving in Vermont should also add a half inch to an inch of rain to the mix Sunday and Sunday night. Which is another reason why we have the flood threat.  There could even be some heavy downpours from embedded thunderstorms with this thing. 

The ice jams will be the thing to watch most carefully Sunday and Monday. The ice will tend to move as them melt continues and water levels rise. Those jumbles of ice could perhaps get stuck at times in different locations, causing sudden floods just upstream from the new ice jams. 

It looks like it will stay unseasonably mild most of next week, but by then so much of the snow will have melted that the flood threat should diminish. Unless we get another round of heavy rain later in the week.  We don't yet know whether that would happen, so we'll just get through the next few days for now.