Vermont Weather Takes Uncertain Turn As Pesky Storm Lingers

People enjoyed a sunny day yesterday at the University
of Vermont campus in Burlington, Vermont.  It turns
out it might well have been the last sunny day
we'll see in Vermont for a week. 

 For at least a week now, computer forecasting models have been expecting a stalled  upper level low to set up in early May somewhere in or near the eastern United States.  

The problem has been where does it set up? Close to Vermont, we get a long spell of showery weather. Far enough away, it would be generally sunny and mild.  It's been a tossup.

Now, there's more consensus that this thing will be close enough to make us showery.  But how showery?

We're still not sure.

These sluggish, stalled systems are often very hard to nail down. Sure, you can pretty accurate predict where the upper low will be a day, or two even three days from now. But what that upper low does down here where we live is always a question mark.

At ground level, these upper lows produce stalled or nearly stalled weather fronts. They spin up weak storms that could go right over us, or miss.  The upper lows help bring in moisture from the Atlantic Ocean that comes in surges then wanes, changing the chances that it will rain. 

So, it you need help planning your Vermont outdoor weather plans for the next week or so, meteorologists will be of little help.  At least with the specifics. 

Broad brush, the forecast is set.  There's a chance of showers daily today through probably next Thursday. When on those days the showers hit, and where, and how heavy they might be is questionable.  Will there be breaks of sun? Quite possibly. When? Who knows?

Expect changes to forecasts daily. 

TRYING AT SPECIFICS

Meteorologists, including the National Weather Service in South Burlington, of course are taking a crack at the forecast.

The rain from this morning is leaving Vermont as of 9 a.m.   We'll still be near a weather front today, with a warm front to the north and a cold front to the west. 

That'll leave us in some warm, somewhat humid air.  So, with the fronts near by and the air being a bit unstable with that moisture, we could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Those storms would be hit and miss, and not severe. Though a few might contain some briefly gusty winds. 

That upper low we've talked about looks like it will start out tomorrow in the Ohio or even Mississippi Valley - further west than first thought. 

That upper low will influence that cold front that's to our west today. It'll make the front stall near or just south of Vermont.  Little disturbances will track southwest to northeast along that front, which would push showers our way. 

Although it won't rain all day tomorrow, it will be our seventh rainy Saturday in a row. I guess we just can't escape that.  At this point it looks like most of the rain would be in the afternoon, and most persistent in southern and eastern Vermont. 

That front will be hanging around Sunday, so we're at risk for shower then, too. Best chances of showers I think would be southern Vermont. I don't think the entire day will be a washout. 

The rest of the forecast is of course very iffy.   The thought currently is that upper level low will come toward New England, increasing the chances of showers by Tuesday. The hope is it will get out of our hair by about a week from now, opening the door to some spring sunshine. 

At least temperatures during this episode will be close to normal by day, a little on the warm side at night due to clouds. That means daily highs after today in the 57 to 65 degree range and lows in the 40s to near 50. 

Bonus: No snow!!