Tale Of Two Vermonts: Very Soggy South, Just Damp North

Don't worry, not another snowfall prediction map. This
one shows expected rainfall today through Wednesday
morning. Less than a quarter inch up by
 St. Albans, but nearly three inches down
by Brattleboro, so that's quite a range. 

Saturday marked the state of a long, damp, cloudy stretch in the Green Mountain State. 

But things will be very different north to south. Starting today and through most of the week,  you're going to see a very soggy southern Vermont, while people up north will just dodge occasional raindrops.

Northern areas will probably trend a little warmer than southern Vermont, too, as less rain means more (mostly failed) attempts for the sun to break through the clouds in the coming days.

Unfortunately, it's going to be awhile before any of us in Vermont see wall to wall spring sunshine. 

SATURDAY REVIEW

Northern Vermont has started this episode a little wet, anyway. Saturday and overnight, rain fell statewide from the Canadian border all they way to Massachusetts and beyond.  

On Saturday, we were watching for the risk of severe storms in far southern Vermont, and that part of the state had the first severe thunderstorm watch of the season.

The storms ended up just barely clipping the southeast corner of the state down by Vernon and Brattleboro. No damage was reported there, but it came really close. 

Jaffrey, New Hampshire, not all that far from Brattleboro had quarter-sized hail. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 65 mph in central Massachusetts.

THE FORECAST

Going forward, the chances for severe thunderstorms are low, though there might be some storms here and there later in the week. 

The main story will be the rain, mainly south.

It's going to be tricky today through Tuesday and maybe Wednesday to determine how far north the rain gets and how heavy it will come down and where. But, again, the further south you are, the wetter you'll be.

Today

It'll be a big battle between that sluggish upper level low in the Ohio Valley flinging Atlantic moisture up north toward us, and dry high pressure in Canada trying to bleed in a little dry air from the north. 

The moisture will mostly win out.  

The morning light rain in northern Vermont this morning seems like it might taper off, with areas near the Canadian border maybe staying dry this afternoon.

The further south you go, the more likely you are to be wet. The southern part of Vermont will likely have a drab, washout Sunday.

Still, forecasters this morning were still not absolutely sure how far north the rain will stay this afternoon. So bring the rain gear no matter where you are in Vermont today, just in case.

If the rain holds off far north this afternoon, it will get into the 60s there. Under the rain, chilly damp 50s should do it south of Route 2.  

Monday

The dry air wins out a little, so even in southern Vermont the rain should at least be lighter. Far northern Vermont might actually squeeze out a decent day, with a low chance of rain perhaps some breaks in the clouds and temperatures getting well into the 60s

Tuesday and Beyond

As always, things look a little more questionable later in the week. The heaviest rain should stay in southern Vermont, but there are decent chances of rain north, too. Like I said, it's be a damp week. 

Toward the end of the week and next weekend, it's unclear whether more sluggish weather systems will keep us cloudy, or whether we're finally able to clear out.  It'll probably  get cooler at the end of the week.  If overnight skies clear out Thursday and Friday there could be some frost, so we'll keep an eye on that.