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| A small magnolia tree I planted a couple years ago was getting ready to bloom this morning as clouds threatening rain loomed over St. Albans, Vermont We have another rainy Saturday, with the risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms in far southern parts of the state this afternoon and evening, |
While some areas of Vermont turned sunny and warm Friday afternoon after a murky morning, others had bigger concerns.
For instance, a strong thunderstorm late in the afternoon and early evening basically traveled west to east along Route 4 from New York, all the way through Rutland and White River Junction and out into New Hampshire.
The storm wasn't really damaging, but it had some torrential downpours and gusty winds and lightning. It got people's attention,
The was the start of a setup that for several days will keep southern Vermont very wet, and northern Vermont unsettled, but not quite so soggy.
In the short term - meaning today - people in southern Vermont will need to keep a wary eye to the sky. There could be some severe thunderstorms, believe it or not.
In the longer term, later in the week, we'll have to watch for the risk of southern Vermont flooding. So far, that risk is low, but bears watching. More on that after I get into today's storms.
SEVERE RISK
This weather pattern is featuring a stalled weather front, with little ripples of storms running southwest to northeast along it. Today the front is draped across Vermont. The front also extends southwestward all the way to the Gulf Coast. That helps ensure a feed of moisture for potential rain and storms for the length of this long, slow moving front.
On the warmer, eastern side of the front, atmospheric conditions will create a narrow band of severe storm potential from the western Carolinas all the way up into central New England
That narrow band of possible severe thunderstorms clips southern Vermont. The far south of the state is in a level 2 alert on a five point scale for severe storm potential. That means scattered severe storms. In other words, a few towns in far southern Vermont could experience damaging winds from some of these storms.
A level one or marginal risk extends as far north as Route 4, meaning there could be a brief, isolated instance of damaging winds, but most places will be fine.
By the way there is a very, very low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup tornado with this in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New York and into central New England. That tiny twister risk extends a little into Vermont, probably up to Route 9 or so. In this zone, there's a two percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point within that risk area.
Further north in Vermont, there's no risk of any severe weather, or even thunderstorms for that matter. But showers are moving in. They, of course, will be most likely late this morning through mid-afternoon, when so many people have so many Saturday outdoor plans.
It is Green Up Day in Vermont, an annual early May event in which hundreds or thousands of volunteers fan out along the state's roadways pickup up trash that accumulated over the winter,
So yes, it's the seventh Saturday in a row with rain,
RAINY WEEK
This nearly stalled weather pattern is expected to persist until Thursday at least. Through this episode, it does look like the heaviest rain will fall in southern Vermont with lighter amounts north.
Areas this week with the most torrential rains look like they'll be in southern New York, parts of southern New England and areas around Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Flooding is a possibility in those places,
These sluggish weather patterns, with that cut off upper low pressure hanging around the Northeast, are pretty unpredictable, though, as I mentioned yesterday. So we'll need to watch to see whether even heavier rain creeps into southern Vermont during the week.
That's a big question mark, but if it does, we'll need to monitor for flooding. So far, the risk looks low, but worth paying attention to.
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