Big Rain Totals From Downpours, Thunderstorms Northern Vermont, Less South. But Wild Weather, Including Snow Still In Forecast

The wettest storm of the year so far in St. Albans, Vermont
with a storm total of 3.12 inches. Some impressive totals'
in northern Vermont. More rain coming Friday, and 
it's still looking like we'll have at least snow flakes 
in the air for Saturday. 

If you like wet and stormy days, you probably had a great time yesterday, especially in you were in the northern half of Vermont. 

The day and evening were filled with rain, heavy at times, locally gusty winds, and in many places, thunderstorms, especially in the evening. 

I don't have a full run down of rainfall yet, that will come later this morning. But some of the totals are impressive. 

I have one unofficial report of 4.25 inches in Georgia. It seems everywhere else had less, but in some cases not by much.  My rain gauge in St. Albans caught a storm total of 3.12 inches. As of 5 p.m. yesterday Fairfax reported 2.14 inches and Westford 1.94 inches. But that was before another band of heavy rain moved through. 

I'm sure we'll see some other impressive rain totals from northwest Vermont in particular as more information arrives 

Montpelier had 1.52 inches of rain Tuesday, breaking the rainfall record for the date by 0.79 inches. Across the pond, Plattsburgh was deluged by 2.56 inches of rain. 

As you move south, rainfall began to diminish, as expected. Burlington received a respectable 1.31 inches. It was a stormy day there, too, as winds gusted as high as 45 mph. 

Further south, Rutland had 0.7 inches of rain and Bennington just 0.07 inches. 

Exciting weather isn't over quite yet in Vermont as we have more heavy rain, more strong winds, very cold temperatures, and yes, snow on the way.

Let's break it down: 

TODAY

The calm after the storm.  Early today, temperatures were still weird as early morning readings were in the upper 40s north but still in the low and mid 60s south. Not all the fronts have cleared through yet, but that will happen as the morning goes on. 

Which means temperatures will even out. In the north, it will stay cloudy, so highs today will be in the 50s to near 60. Party sunny skies south will bring temperatures into the mid and upper 60s. Nice and mild. 

Lingering drizzle in the north this morning should dry out somewhat by afternoon. 

THURSDAY

Chillier as a brief incursion of cool air comes in from Quebec. It will still be the pick of the week, with sunshine, and crisp air. Highs should make it into the low 50s after a potentially frosty morning in spots. The morning cold will be nothing compared to what's coming this weekend. 

FRIDAY

Another windy, rainy storm - a real foliage stripper. It'll be another strong storm, probably heading down the St. Lawrence River Valley toward Montreal during the day. It won't rain as hard as it did yesterday, but many places in Vermont can expect more than a half inch of rain, 

 Some places could get another inch of rain. The National Weather Service says parts of the Champlain Valley night see a little less rain than everybody else. Strong southwesterly winds mean the Adirondacks will block some of the moisture.  As a cold front comes in Friday night, it will turn sharply colder. Rain will change to snow in the high elevations toward morning. 

SATURDAY

A real taste of winter. As the National Weather Service in South Burlington put it, well have a race between how fast the cold air comes in versus how fast the dry air arrives. That will determine who gets snow, and how much. 

It's possible the Champlain Valley could see a few flakes early in the day. Much of the rest of Vermont outside southern valleys will also see at least a few snow flurries. A dusting could accumulate, mostly at elevations above 1,000 feet. The summits could see two or three inches of snow. '

It will truly be a wintry day. Most places will be below freezing to start the day, and only rise into the 30s to near 40 for highs. That's typical of early December, not mid-October. Strong northwest winds will make it feel much colder.

Although this storm will be a foliage stripper, there probably will be a few leaves left to contrast with white mountain summits. Or, a dusting of snow on landscapes with some colorful trees could make for some beautiful photos. Classic Vermont snoliage. 

Winds will diminish somewhat Saturday night, but we'll go below freezing again. 

SUNDAY

The start of a warming trend, though we're starting from a point that can't be much colder this time of year. By afternoon Sunday, it should be up near 50 degrees under sunny skies. That's still cool for this time of year, but still, it'll feel nice after Saturday, especially since the wind will be lighter

NEXT WEEK

After the weather excitement this week, we have much more reasonable, calmer weather in store. Temperatures will be near normal, or even slightly warmer than normal on some days, and the weather should stay pretty dry. It'll be a nice Indian summer-ish break from the cold weather this weekend. 

 

Vermont Has One Shot At Drenching Rain Before A Likely Long Dry Spell

Hand it to the National Weather Service, whether radar this morning is exactly what was forecast. 

Weather radar this morning showed areas of rain moving
northwest to southeast across central and southern Vermont
The light blue shading on the northern edge is just 
clouds and very light rain evaporating before it hits the
ground.. Heavier, more drenching rain is forecast
to arrive Wednesday night. 

Areas of rain, most of it light but some of it moderate, to almost heavy, were racing northwest to southeast across southern and central Vermont this morning. 

Northern Vermont was missing out. Clouds were thick and threatening in northwest Vermont, close to the rain band, but thinner up in the Northeast Kingdom.. 

That state of affairs will continue to day, though the rain in southern Vermont will tend to taper off as the afternoon goes on

North of Route 2, I wouldn't be at all surprised if some sunshine breaks out this afternoon.

A stalled weather front to our south and west is responsible for today's rainy weather. 

Total rainfall through tonight looks like they'll amount to a quarter to a half inch in the southern half of Vermont with very little north. 

Scattered showers overnight tonight might deposit a paltry few hundredths of an inch of rain north of Route 2. Too bad, as the Northeast Kingdom needs the rain more than other parts of the state. 

Under the rain and clouds, highs in southern and central Vermont will only get into autumnal  highs in the 60s. Northern Vermont, outside the rain, could make it into the 70s. 

Our sole chance of soaking rains will come later Wednesday through the pre-dawn Thursday. 

WEDNESDAY

We need the rain, and it's still looking like we'll get a decent dose of rain Wednesday night. 

We'll likely get through the day Wednesday without much of rain. It'll be cloudy and vaguely humid, but any showers should be light and few and far between. Highs should get into the 70s, with some mid and upper 60s under areas with thicker clouds, especially east of the Green Mountains. 

n

A stronger area of low pressure will push that stalled front toward us. The system will fire up severe thunderstorms from western New York southeastward to New Jersey, Maryland and Delaware. 

Up here in Vermont, thunderstorms should weaken and fade away before reaching us, but we do have a shot at some fairly heavy downpours. The rain will reach us in the evening and continue overnight. 

Over all, the National Weather Service expects a nice three quarters to an inch of rain for most spots, with over an inch in some areas of the Green Mountains. Unfortunately the far corners of the Northeast Kingdom might receive as little as a half inch of rain.

The rain will be steady enough, without too many short, sharp bursts of torrential downpours, that flooding looks pretty unlikely 

THURSDAY-SATURDAY

The storm system will amble on to the east, but not in any kind of hurry. This will keep cool-ish, sort of moist north winds blowing. That could set off some scattered showers, especially Thursday as a secondary weak cold front drifts through Vermont. 

This rain will not be heavy, and it will be scattered. Northern mountains have the best shot at seeing the showers.

Day by day, the showers will become lighter and more scattered so that by Sunday, there shield be few if any sprinkles left over. 

Daytime temperature should be pretty comfortable through the period as highs should reach the 70s, with some upper 60s on cooler, northern areas, especially the Northeast Kingdom. 

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

We'd better hope the above forecast for a soaking rain comes true, as we look to be in for a fairly long period of dry to mostly dry weather. 

Once we get into September, we often see big, dry high pressure systems hang out nearby.  The next chance of rain looks like it will be just scattered showers ahead of a cold front early Tuesday. 

A storm system riding along that front could bring heavier rain to the south. This is a long way off, so there's always a chance that storm could come closer to us than forecast, and give us some rain.  But we'll wait to worry about that in a few days. 

 

Vermont Escapes Storms For Once. Also, Fog Season Has Arrived, And Gorgeous Saturday

Weather radar late Friday afternoon showed some fairly
strong thunderstorms in eastern New York, but they 
barely brushed the extreme southwestern tip of 
Vermont, so for a change, no severe weather for us. 

 Some fairly strong storms developed in central and eastern New York yesterday with the latest weather disturbance, but Vermont for a change was left unscathed. There was some rain in southwestern parts of the state, but we ended our streak of three consecutive severe weather days. 

One strong looking storm (at least the way it looks on radar) barely brushed Pownal on the extreme southwestern tip of Vermont. That was it.

I've also noticed we've gotten into fog season in Vermont. In the late summer and the first half of autumn, the nights start getting cooler but the ground, streams, ponds, marshes and lakes are warm. 

The cool air comes in contact with the moisture emitting from the warmer soil and water. The cool air makes the moisture condense into locally dense fog.

We had areas of fog yesterday morning and even more so as we started today. The National Weather Service in South Burlington put out a special weather statement noting that locally dense fog was even more widespread than usual, so care needed to be taken on the roads.

The good news is this early morning fog always burns off quickly. By the time you read this, any fog in your area will be gone, or will be very shortly. We'll end up with our well-advertised gorgeous day. 

The forecast is the same as how I outlined it yesterday. Sunny, with highs generally in the 70s, very low humidity and maybe a slight, pleasant breeze from the north 

SUNDAY

Another pretty nice day, especially since they've postponed the arrival of some rain until a little later.  We'll start the day with clear skies. Except river valleys especially will see some early morning dense fog again. Like I said, tis the season.

Clouds should slowly  increase during the afternoon. But since the sun will stay out longer than earlier forecasts indicated, the National Weather Service has bumped up expected high temperatures a little. Most of us on valley floors should make it to near 80 degrees.

Some showers could arrive during the evening. 

SUNDAY NIGHT

If you're like Eddie Rabbit and you love a rainy night, you'll enjoy Sunday night. The entire state should enjoy a decent soaking. The uncertain part of the forecast is where potentially heavier rain might set up.  The National Weather Service thinks there might be a few streaks of an inch to an inch and a half totals somewhere in Vermont, but are unsure where.

Don't be surprised if you hear the roar of a downpour on your roof or a rumble of thunder, as you might be in one of those streaks of more drenching rains. If you end up outside of one of those areas of downpours, you should stills see a a quarter to a half inch of rain. 

Since this particular system looks like it will affect the entire state, then places that are too dry and avoided all of our recent wild thunderstorms should get some needed rain. Unless this storm pulls another surprise on us. 

MONDAY

The rain should taper off early in the day, and we'll be left with a damp, humid feel to the air for a few hours at least. An approaching cold front will take advantage of that moisture to set off some showers and maybe some garden variety thunderstorms. 

So far, we're not expecting any severe weather. The showers should tend to taper off in the afternoon and evening and we'll feel that humidity diminish again as drier air comes in from Canada.

REST OF NEXT WEEK

Basically seasonable weather as the hot and in many areas oppressively humid air stays locked in the souther, central and western United States. We should keep with our pretty average temperatures for mid-August, with no signs of terrible humidity creeping in just yet. Our next chance of showers is probably Wednesday or Thursday. 

Dog Days Of Summer Have Arrived In Vermont, Downpours Thrown In Sunday/Monday Too

A bumblebee enjoys a rose bloom this morning in 
St. Albans, Vermont amid our spell of humid air. Sticky
days will continue for at least a week along with
risks of showers and storms. 

It hasn't exactly been hot recently, but the air has felt rather sticky, here in Vermont and that state of affairs will continue for quite awhile. 

It's the dog days of summer, the nearly annual spell in which we're stuck in a long period of humid, warm air, with occasional spikes to a hot day or two mixed with rainy, thundery periods as well.

We're going to sweat it out in moderately warm air, and humidity that's moderately high until Sunday, when it will get even worse.Most of us will stay rain-fee under Sunday, when the weather forecast begins to turn iffy. Let's get into the details:   

TODAY

Partly sunny with that humidity is the bottom line.  Highs should get into the low 80s.

 noticed a couple showers early today in Addison and Rutland counties. That hints at enough instability in the air to trigger maybe an isolated shower or storm today mostly over the mountains. The vast majority of us will stay dry. though, and whatever does form shouldn't be scary. Just garden variety stuff.  

SATURDAY

Rinse and repeat. But it will be just a bit warmer as temperatures rise well into the 80s. 

SUNDAY

Here's where it gets questionable. South winds, which you'll especially notice in the Champlain Valley, will increase ahead of the next weather system. Those wind  will pump even more humid air our way, so Sunday will feel even more oppressive.

As it stands now, it looks like some showers and storms could develop in the afternoon and evening, especially in the northwestern half of the state. We still have questions on the timing and intensity of this thing, and those questions deepen Sunday night and Monday

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY

It seems like the incoming front and weather disturbance will want to slow down near New England. We're pretty sure we'll see some heavy downpours around, but we don't know how long they'll last or just how heavy they'll be in any particular spot. 

The computer models have been windshield wipering between an ominous forecast of heavy rain lingering over the region for a long time, or downpours staying long enough to give us a harmless, beneficial soaking without a real risk of flooding. 

This morning's runs of computer forecast don't look all that ominous, but there's still a risk of locally heavy rain. And other model runs today might paint yet a different picture. 

In this morning's forecast discussion, the National Weather Service in South Burlington said they're hoping for  better, more concise guidance tomorrow on what might happen with this system. By then, well have better upper air sampling of how things are shaping. So stay tuned.  

BEYOND MONDAY

Whatever this system doesn't, it won't be one of those nice summer cold fronts that flush out the humidity for a few days. Instead it will stay warm, and probably get warmer. Temperatures might hold in the 70s amid steamy air Monday if there's a lot of clouds and rain. 

If we're lucky, it could briefly turn slightly less humid next Tuesday, but building warmth and humidity quickly return. It looks like a long stretch of very warm, humid weather with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week. 

Vermont (Mostly Dodged A Flood Bullet While Nearby New York's Hudson Valley Is A Flood Disaster Zone

Rescue operations during yesterday's big flood in
New York's Capitol District. Vermont dodged a 
bullet as the bulk of the heavy rain fell just
to the west of southern Vermont

 Phew!

Vermont is waking up to a little flood damage in the southern end of the state, but nothing catastrophic. 

The big flood came right up to our doorstep - taking out homes and business and roads and cars in the Hudson Valley just a short drive from the Bennington, Vermont area.

Nearly a foot of rain fell on some communities just south of Albany. Albany itself had just under seven inches of rain out of this. 

Rainfall totals in parts of far southern Vermont were impressive, too. A handful of towns in the far southern Green Mountains reported storm totals of around five inches. 

Any damage to southern Vermont is overshadowed by what happened in the Albany Capitol District, but I'm sure there's some road and driveway damage in some steep areas of the extreme southern Green Mountains. 

I saw reports of the Deerfield River in Wilmington running very high, and the Beaver Brook in that town over its banks. A sink hold formed on
 East Main Street in Wilmington. 

Vermont definitely suffers flood PTSD after the horrific floods of 2023 and 2024 and the lesser, but still destructive Northeast Kingdom flash flood of 2025. I saw a WPTZ report of nervousness in Montpelier on Wednesday as the devastating flood of 2023 is still fresh in everyone's memory. 

Montpelier was never forecast to have serious flood problems with this storm. And it turns out they only received 0.63 inches of rain through early this morning, which is less than had been expected.

To be on the safe side, the Vermont Urban Search and Rescue Task Force deployed two squads, one in Wilmington and the other in Ludlow to respond to any water crises.

So, anytime there's any sort of flood threat in Vermont, people get nervous. 

Believe it or not, Vermont isn't entirely free from flood threats over the coming days, though I'd emphasize that for now, it's just a weather system that bears watching Sunday and Monday. There's a chance that we could see some heavy rain on those days, but it's way too soon to say whether it will be just the usual brief summer downpours or something else.

Let's get into the daily details

TODAY

Kind of a grungy summer day with only a little sun here and there and an ever-present chance of showers. Much like yesterday, it'll be kind of humid but not that warm with highs in the 70s. 

The storm that brought the Hudson Valley flood is not entirely out of our hair, though the torrential rains associated with it are gone.  So many areas will see a tenth of an inch of rain or less today. The Connecticut River Valley, which especially north of White River Junction largely missed out on the rain, could get up to a quarter inch today. No biggie.

FRIDAY

 A nicer day, though still on the humid side. We'll have a fair amount of sun, a slight chance of a shower for storm, but most of us will stay dry. It should get into the low 80s in most of Vermont

SATURDAY

Typical summer weather continues. Still on the humid side, with sunshine. Like the previous days, there might be some haze in the air from wildfires out west. And a very slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm thrown in. Highs once again in the 80s.

SUNDAY/MONDAY

Here's where we potentially run into trouble. Some models have a humid summer cold front come through with the usual showers and thunderstorms and brief torrents of rain. If that scenario plays out, then we're fine. 

However, some models slow things down, and develop another small, sluggish but very wet storm somewhere over or near New England or New York. If that happens, we could have more flood problems somewhere in the North Country. 

For now, don't worry about it, since we don't know yet how this will play out. But you should listen to updated forecasts as we get closer to Sunday and Monday, in the off chance things go south again. 

 

Southern Vermont Still Above Water, New York Hudson Valley Badly Flooded

A historic grist mill said to date back to the 1700s 
collapsed and was destroyed amid floodwaters
today in New York's Hudson Valley. A few towns
south of Albany had nearly a foot of rain. So far,
no serious flooding has been reported in 
Vermont and the threat of flooding is 
diminishing in the Green Mountain State.

So far, as of late this afternoon, the epicenter of the flooding in the Northeast is not quite here in Vermont, but close to it. If we get through this evening, southern Vermont will have dodged a bullet.  

Parts of New York's Hudson Valley, especially in and around the Albany Capitol District, is inundated after what some are calling one in one thousand year rainfall amounts.

Some of those rainfall amounts in New York are insane. Castleton-On-Hudson, south of Albany, had reported 11.47 inches of rain by 3:30 p.m. Nearby Kinderhook had 11.37 inches. Several other towns had five to nine inches of rain

As you'd imagine, several communities around Albany were under states of emergency today. Many roads are closed, buildings are damaged and cars submerged. 

Southern Vermont's rainfall has so far fallen just short of enough to cause serious flooding. If the epicenter of the torrential downpours was just 20 or 30 miles further east, we'd have a different story on our hands.

Still, some rainfall totals in the southern Green Mountains are impressive. West Dover had 5.55 inches. Stamford reported 4.94 inches and Pownall had 4.54 inches. 

The far southern Green Mountains still face a flood threat for the next several hours as a weird storm continues to wander through New England, pulling in tons of Atlantic moisture along the way. 

As of late this afternoon, radar images of the storm's rainfall starting to look a little like that of a wintertime nor'easter. On the far northwestern flank, a narrow band of downpours was moving westward in northwest New York, toward Lake Ontario.

A band of moderate rain was twirling northwestward through central and northern Vermont. I don't think we need to worry about that piece of rain. It'll just wet down some areas that still need rain.   Lighter showers were falling between those two bands.

The storm itself seemed to be centered in the Berkshires of western Massachusetts Ahead of it, another band of Berkshires. A narrow, but very potent line of torrential rain was pinwheeling northward, then northwestward across central Massachusetts and toward southern Vermont. 

A flood warning went up for far southern and southeastern Vermont at  4:47 p.m. today because of that heavy rain band. 

Whether the flooding will be serious or not depends on how well that  band holds together and whether it keeps aiming at southern parts of the Green Mountain State,  The rain band did appear to be fizzling somewhat as it entered Vermont. And it was showing signs of pushing east into New Hampshire.   There's an excellent chance Vermont will have escaped another destructive flood. 

Further north into south central Vermont, places like Ludlow, Shrewsbury, Weston, Mount Holly, and Killington, the flood threat hs gotten very low. It's still possible an area of downpours could create a local problem, but I'm not really holding my breath on that one. I think you're safe. 

The rain ended earlier today in northern Vermont. But more light showers will come in, thanks in part to that band of rain working north across the state. More showers will follow overnight. But amounts will range from a tenth of an inch far north to maybe a half inch or a little more in central Vermont. 

Phew! 

 

Flash Flood Risk Growing In Vermont, And Rest Of The Northeast

A strong thunderstorm seen here approaching St. Albans,.
Vermont from the southeast, instead of the west like
we'd usually see from storms. This storm was part of 
an opening salvo of storms that is bringing a 
flood threat to southern Vermont through tomorrow 

 I was afraid this would happen. 

The flash flood risk is growing notably in parts of Vermont, and a large chunk of the Northeast. 

A flood watch is now in effect for central and southern Vermont. The areas under the watch can expect one to three inches of rain through tomorrow evening. That doesn't sound so bad, until you consider there could well be some streaks of three to five inch amounts in that zone. 

The flood risk has already started.

If you're in the southern half of Vermont - especially if you're in or near the Green Mountains, prepare for local areas of flash flooding anytime between now and during the day tomorrow. 

This weather setup reminds me a little of the way things arranged themselves for the big July flood of 2023,  That said, I don't want to give you a flareup of PTSD.  This weather pattern IS NOT as intense or as capable of producing widespread like it did in July, 2023,  But I expect at least some pockets of flood damage in the Green Mountain State. 

THE UPDATE

All this is based on weather data that came in late this morning and early afternoon. That data doesn't exactly paint a pretty picture. Rainfall will be heavier in many areas than we thought early this morning. 

 Early this afternoon, NOAA's Weather Prediction Center extended a moderate risk of flash flooding between now and tomorrow morning through eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, and southwestern New England into far southern Vermont. 

A moderate risk, level three out of four, almost guarantees at least some flash flooding. A thick moisture feed combining with the instability brought on by a pesky upper level low over the Northeast could produce as much as five inches of rain within six hours in some local areas within the moderate risk area. 

The slight risk of flash flooding, level 2 out of 4 risk level, now extends north almost to Route 2. There's a good chance of some instance of local flooding in central Vermont between now and tomorrow night, especially along the east slopes of the Green Mountains. 

A marginal risk, one out of four covers far northern Vermont for the chance of very isolated flooding. 

Thunderstorms blossomed rapidly along the western slopes of the Green Mountains early this afternoon. The last one to develop seemed to come out of almost nowhere in Franklin County in the mid-afternoon and it was strong enough to carry a severe thunderstorm warning. It also came from an unusual direction - from the southeast rather than the west they way storms usually do.

That motion is a clue that we're getting a lot of moisture off the Atlantic Ocean for the atmosphere to play with. 

The storms were moving right along at a brisk pace, so any one storm wouldn't drop much rain in a particular place. The trouble will come if and where multiple stores move over the same place over and over again.

I have noticed that downpours in far southern Vermont have been looking pretty persistent this afternoon, but so far, as of 4 p.m., there were not flood alerts in effect. But this is the place to watch through this evening, as these storms will feature the heaviest rain of this whole three-day rainy event.  

TONIGHT/TOMORROW

The developing area of low pressure heading toward New York and southern New England will set up a sort of fire hose of moisture moving southeast to northwest from southern New England through southern Vermont, then weakening as it moves further north into upper Vermont and the Adirondack. 

This set up will really soak the summits and eastern slopes of the southern and maybe central Green Mountains, That will keep the flood risk going through most of tomorrow. The rain might not be as heavy as the locally torrential downpours today, but the rain could easily be strong enough to keep the flood risk going, 

The flood risk will diminish as you go north toward the Canadian border

For now, storm totals look like they'll run three to five inches in far southern Vermont, with local amounts as high as six or seven inches especially in the mountains. So you can see why this weather system is risky. 

The central Green Mountains look to have one to three inches, with perhaps locally higher amounts.  Northwest Vermont should get maybe three quarters on an inch, give or take, again with locally higher amounts. 

The Northeast Kingdom will largely miss out, as forecasts stand now. Some places up there might receive only a quarter inch of rain. 

Meanwhile, most of southern New England is under a flood alert through tomorrow, 

CAVEATS/WHAT TO DO

As always, things could change one way or another overnight. Heavy storms like this can shift the heaviest rain a few miles in unexpected directions, which could affect who gets the worst of flooding, if any. 

So, if you live in southern Vermont, be ready for at least some localized flash floods. Much of this could happen after dark, and it's hard to see washouts and flooding ahead when you're driving at night. 

If you live in a flood prone area, especially where water can rush off of steep slopes, have a to-go bag ready, just in case. You might have to leave at the drop of a hat.  

Again, not everyone in southern Vermont will have a flash flood. But it's a big enough threat to stay on your toes through tomorrow. 

We've already had a few instances of flash flooding this summer in Vermont. Looks like this will be another. In our climate changed world, this kind of thing has become more likely than it was a few decades ago

 

Vermont Remains On The Edge Of Wild Weather Pattern; Slight Flood Threat But Not As Bad As Further 'South

The first rains of our wet period are seen yesterday
over Lake Champlain near Alburgh. Some areas of
Vermont will see a couple inches or more of rain, with
a localized flood threat. The Northeast Kingdome
looks like it will largely miss out

 As you've seen in the headlines, there's been a lot of rough weather in the United States this summer. 

One long stripe of the nation has really gotten nailed. It goes from Minnesota and Wisconsin, through the Great Lakes, into the Ohio Valley and finally the Mid-Atlantic States.

That zone has repeatedly gotten some horrible thunderstorms and even tornadoes. Repeatedly. With no real end in sight.

Yesterday, a nasty tornado swept through parts of northeast Wisconsin, trashing large sections of Menasha, Neenah and Appleton.  Also Monday, severe thunderstorms packing 80 mph winds and possible tornadoes harassed the Chicago area. Flooding was also reported. 

Today, severe thunderstorms will hit the Mid-Atlantic states again. More flash flooding is a risk, too, especially in the New York City metro area. 

 Here in Vermont, we've mostly gotten glancing blows from all this wild, weird summer weather. Sometimes, it does mange to hit us, like when we had that pair of tornadoes in June, or those destructive microbursts in the Northeast Kingdom and southern Vermont earlier this month. But we haven't gotten the worst of it in the Green Mountain State. 

This time around, we're on the edge of the "fun" today and tomorrow. We don't have to worry about severe thunderstorms. Flash flooding is a bit of a threat, especially in southern Vermont, but - fingers crossed - this doesn't look like it will be anything widespread or super destructive.

Though I'm pretty relaxed about the forecast, this kind of weather system can pull surprises. Things won't turn out exactly as the current predictions. I'll give it a go as to what will happen, based on what the National Weather Service is telling us this morning. 

TODAY

Forecasted rain fall through Friday morning, from the
National Weather Service. Note that rainfall 
amounts will be more variable than depicted here. 

There were some showers and thunderstorms and downpours yesterday, mostly in the Adirondacks, bu they were pretty widely scattered. 

That kind of stuff will be more widespread today. Especially the further west and south you go.

Based on radar images at 9 a.m. today. you'd think a big dose of needed rain would be starting in Vermont very soon. There was a big stripe of rain, with a few embedded downpours in the central Adirondack, extending down to places just west of Albany, New York.

But this stuff was just barely crawling eastward. And it looks like it will weaken as it does so.

However, more showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon as that slow weather system continues to press grudgingly eastward today. 

It will probably rain most places today, though showers and thunderstorms will be especially hit and maybe mostly miss in the Northeast Kingdom. 

Areas south and west of Interstate 89 have the best chance of seeing rain and downpours, possibly multiple hits. That's especially true down in far southern Vermont and up toward  Albany/Glens Falls/Lake George, New York and on its the Adirondacks, 

This area has the best chances of local flash floods today, though I'd emphasize that the chances of that happening are pretty low. Mostly because it's been so dry lately. Still, if any one place gets nailed by numerous downpours, one right after the other, then there could be a local high water problem

TONIGHT

Showers and storms will continue off an on. Since the wet airflow will come from the south and east, off the Atlantic, the best chance of heavier rain is on the east slopes of the southern Green Mountains and in the east slopes of the Adirondacks. 

Again, no widespread flooding, but there could be a pocket here or there the could have a creek or small stream overflow enough to damage a gravel road or driveway, or possibly damage a particularly unlucky  house. 

WEDNESDAY

By tomorrow morning, the center of our sluggish storm will be somewhere in the general vicinity of New York City, give or take. That set up will keep sending waves of showers northward into Vermont.  Again, the best chance of heavier rain is in southern Vermont. And maybe the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains maybe as far north as Sugarbush. 

If any flooding happens, it'll be in southern Vermont, especially in the steep slopes of the southern Greens. Again, so far at least, we're not expecting anything widespread. Definitely not a repeat of 2023, as it looks now. Even so, the creeks, small streams and brooks in southern Vermont especially will need to be watched. 

A saving grace is it looks like it will be too cloudy and too cool to allow any torrential thunderstorms to develop. So rainfall rates won't be as likely to produce flash flooding as we would see with a lot of thunderstorms. 

Once again, he Northeast Kingdom looks like it will be more protected from the rains. The White Mountains of New Hampshire might help block some of the Atlantic Ocean moisture that will be flowing into New England. 

THURSDAY

The stupid, slow, meandering storm will begin to depart. We'll still have some showers around, but the risk of heavy rain will diminish.

As noted, the rainfall will be super variable. One town might see more than two or even three inches of rain out of this, while a few towns over will see maybe a half inch to an inch. 

Broad brush, many areas south of Route 4 should get more that two inches of rain between now and Thursday. Some spots in the southern Green Mountains could easily go past three inches, maybe even approach four inches in isolated spots.

Central Vermont in general would receive one to 1.5 inches. Most of northern Vermont should receive an inch or less. Some places in the Northeast Kingdom could easily receive less than a half inch of rain, 

So, some places in Vermont will get too much rain, while other places not enough, It's still very dry in  northern Vermont, so a half inch of rain won't cut it. We'll need more, But at least the rain will cut back a burgeoning fire hazard. Brush fires were reported in recent days in Essex Junction and Fairfax. There probably were a few other small blazes breaking out in other parts of the state. 

Fortunately for the north and unfortunately for soon to be soggy southern Vermont, the weather pattern looks pretty active, though slow moving.  There's another potentially wet system that might come at us later Sunday or Monday. 

A Wet Spell Coming To Vermont: Some Risk Of Flash Flooding; Far North Might Miss Out

National Weather Service forecast map. Through Thursday
morning. If this forecast holds, the southern half of 
Vermont would get more than an inch of rain, with
local amounts much higher. Northern Vermont 
looks like it will get less. 

Today is dawning as it did the past couple of days, sunny, a little hazy from atmospheric wildfire smoke in the air.  

According to WCAX meteorologist Gunnar Consul said that Sunday was the exact midpoint between Burlington's average last and spring snowfall. So, we're in the midsummer doldrums. 

Which means slow moving, sluggish weather systems. 

For most of us, today will be a relatively nice day. But if you were a geek watching weather radar yesterday, you saw some slow moving showers and thunderstorms in the Adirondacks. There's not much motion of the atmosphere so they kind of sat there. 

The same state of affairs will happen today, and that introduces a rainy stretch that will lead to the risk of some localized flooding over the next few days. I'm absolutely not in panic mode like I was before  the big summer floods of 2023 and 2024. 

This episode doesn't look nearly as dire as that, unless there's some incredible surprise all the meteorologists are missing. But be on the lookout for the risk of some local flash flood problems that might erupt between today and Thursday.  

TODAY

The local flash flood risk starts today, almost exclusively in the Adirondacks. And maybe the western side of Lake Champlain in New York. That said, the chances of that happening are low. I just mentioned it because storms that develop won't move much. So they could dump huge amounts of rain in very small, pinpoint areas. That can be dangerous within the steep slopes of the Adirondacks.  

Here in Vermont, we'll watch the storms erupt here and there to our west, on the other side of Lake Champlain. Eventually, later this afternoon and early evening, a few showers or storms will erupt in Vermont, too. Most of us will stay dry and enjoy a nice day. Maybe 30 percent of us will get some rain by sunset. 

Because storms will be few and far between, it will get well into the 80s again today. 

TUESDAY

A much better chance of showers and thunderstorms, at least in the western half of the area. The disturbance causing the showery weather will have moved only slightly east. 

So there's an excellent chance of rain in southwest Vermont and New York. Much of central Vermont and the Champlain Valley has a very good chance of showers and storms. Again, since all the showers and storm will be moving very slowly, and some will contain torrential downpours.  All but the far Northeast Kingdom is under a marginal, level one of four risk of local flash floods. 

Northeastern Vermont should get through the day with just widely scattered showers and storms, so there risk os lover there. 

Again, this won't be a widespread problem. Since there will be sunshine, too, most of us should get into the low and mid 80s. The humidity will have risen somewhat, too. So it will be a partly cloudy, hazy, muggy day with the ever-present chance of showers and storms especially south and west of Interstate 89

WEDNESDAY

This will be the day with the best chance of rain. A nearly stalled weak but very wet storm will wander somewhere around New England and New York. This will set up a wet flow of air from the southeast - off the Atlantic Ocean - will push into New England, including Vermont. The heaviest rain will fall in southern Vermont, especially along the eastern slopes of the Green Mountains. 

We'll have to watch whichever spots ended up with the heaviest rainstorms on Tuesday will have to be watched for local flash floods. All but far northern Vermont is once again in a marginal, level one out of four on the risk scale. Areas in far southern Vermont - along Route 9 - are in a level 2 slight risk zone, as is most of southern New England. 

Areas in far northern Vermont that really need the rain look like they might miss out. It will rain up there. Any rain is good, but as it looks now, it probably won't be a deep soaker. 

Rainfall will be highly variable as it always is with showers and thunderstorms. In general, current forecasts give southern Vermont an inch or two of rain, with generally an inch in central Vermont. Far northern Vermont looks to receive only a half inch or so. Nice, but not enough.

Overall, with all the clouds and rain, it will be cool, but humid, with temperatures hovering in the 70s

THURSDAY AND BEYOND

Lingering showers and rumbles of thunder as that slow, rambling storm slowly leaves. So it will be an unsettled, iffy day. Some showers might linger into Friday. But warm, rather sunny, kind of humid weather will linger Friday and Saturday. Another sluggish system looks like it might arrive Sunday with more showers and storms. 

Fourth Year In A Row With Vermont Weather Trouble On July 9 or 10. Next Up, Pleasant, But Maybe Smoky, Then A Hot Flash

Torrential rains in St. Albans, Vermont during a strong
thunderstorm late Thursday afternoon. The same storm
 strengthened as it moved east, eventually causing
 substantial tree and power line damage
in the Northeast Kingdom. Flooding hit central Vermont

 It turns out we had weather trouble in Vermont around July 10 for the fourth  year in a row. 

The trouble hit a little early this year, on July 9, instead of July 10 like we saw in 2023, 2024 and 2025. But yesterday, we had flooding in and around Barre, and thunderstorm wind damage in the Northeast Kingdom. 

The core of the wind damage was in Lyndon and East Burke. Video showed numerous trees down along Route 114.  

Somebody in the video background suggests it was a tornado. Perhaps, but since all the trees appeared to fall in the same direction, at least as seen in the video clip, I suspect intense straight line winds.

Another batch of thunderstorms nearly stalled over central Vermont. It was enough to flood the streets of Barre, again. This was mostly poor drainage flooding and not quite as serious as in recent years. 

In Montpelier, nearly 2.5 inches of rain fell yesterday, including 1.75 inches within two hours. 

I guess we should be grateful over a trend line. The worst flooding hit statewide on July 10, 2023. In 2024, most of the destruction was across a broad band through central Vermont. In 2025, destructive flooding was limited to just parts of the Northeast Kingdom.  And yesterday, almost all of Vermont escaped unscathed, except in the Barre-Montpelier area and a small part of the Northeast Kingdom.

Even better, we're done with the rough weather for a little while, anyway. 

TODAY

It looks like the cold front as of 8 a.m this morning was draped across central Vermont, judging from a line of very light showers drifting southward.  The front is too weak to create any dangerous downpours or high winds. We'll have no major weather today. 

This morning started humid, but light north breezes will slowly dry the moisture out of the air. The sun will break through where it hasn't already, and we should make into the low 80s this afternoon.

WEEKEND

It's still looking like a terrific weekend if you love summer.  The humidity should remain low enough, and afternoon highs will reach the 80s under sunny skies. 

Dimmed sun, though. Smoke from wildfires in Quebec near James Bay will probably drift down into Vermont on those north winds. So the Green Mountains of Vermont might well be hidden by haze. I'm not sure whether we'd have enough smoke to trigger any air quality alerts. but we'll wait for more info on that.

NEXT WEEK

A heat dome is setting up in the western United States which will create record high temperatures in places like Montana and North Dakota, and other states.

A storm way up in central and northern Canada will pull a plume of that hot air eastward, arriving here Monday and Tuesday. The National Weather Service in South Burlington is calling it a "jailbreak heat," as it's escaping the heat dome where it originated. 

We should see highs near 90 on Monday and as high as the mid-90s Tuesday. Considering where the air is coming from, it will be pretty dry air.  The kind that doesn't feel quite as bad as most heat waves, but drains the moisture from your garden plants. You'll need to water.

The heat won't last long. If there's a northward bulge in the jet stream with the heat dome in the West, you need a southward dip in the jet stream in the East.

That will start to set up midweek. A cold front will come through Tuesday night or Wednesday. Probably with little fanfare. It won't get that cold, probably seasonably warm late in the week. 

As always, long range forecasts like that are subject to change. At least we have no scary storms or floods in our immediate future.

This Year, No Repeat Of The Traditional July 10 Vermont Flood Disaster; Hot Weather Continues

Lillies soak up this morning's sun this morning in St.
Albans, Vermont. They'll likely soak up some rain
from showers and storms later today and tonight, 

 It reached 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on Wednesday. the eighth time this year it's been at least 90 degrees. 

Summer is only about half over and already, we're among only 42 years out of the past 127 with that many 90s.  However, we're not on pace for any kind of record. In 1949, Burlington endured 26 days in the 90s.

This is the 12th consecutive year with at least eight days in the 90s.  We hadn't come close to a streak like that in the past. Another little sign that our planet is warm. 

There's a chance it could be 90 degrees today, but I think clouds, showers, thunderstorms and humidity might prevent it from getting that hot. 

We're also coming up on July 10. For three years in a row, starting in 2023, Vermont faced serious flooding on that date. This year, it looks highly unlikely. And if there are any floods, it would happen late this afternoon or evening, not tomorrow.  And more importantly, any water trouble would be very minor. 

Let's explain through the details. 

TODAY

It's going to be pretty hot, humid with a risk of thunderstorms today. The storms will hit mostly the northern half of the state, and not everyone will see a shower or storm. Typical summer weather. 

There's a weak cold front lurking in southern Quebec.  As is often the case with lame summer cold fronts, there's a disturbance out ahead of it known as a pre-frontal trough. 

The pre-frontal trough is often most responsible for severe thunderstorms ahead or a cold front. However, this time, the chances of severe storms are relatively low. 

Clouds creeping in today could reduce instability. There's some smoke in the air, too, which sometimes reduces instability a little. Still, it's humid out there and the day is starting out sunny. 

The bottom line is a few storms could become strong to severe, but it won't be anything widespread like those wild storms on July 1. 

Northwestern Vermont is under a marginal risk of severe storms today. That's level 1 out of 5 alert status. That means maybe isolated severe weather. I think that low-level risk should extent throughout northern Vermont, but that's just my gut feeling.

Given the fact it's humid and getting more humid, some of the storms could produce torrential rains. Those gully washers will be pretty localized.  And they shouldn't last especially long in any one place. I suppose there might be a few minor washouts on some steep gravel driveways and along the edges of gravel roads.

 It's true that NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has northern Vermont under a marginal risk for flash floods, but this won't be a big worry. We're not gearing up for another July 10. (I know it's July 9, but the effects would last into July 10). 

After the shower and storms late this afternoon, we should have a lull before showers and a few storms hit again overnight with the actual cold front. Again, nothing to worry about. Aside from maybe some minor erosion at the edges of a couple roads, we should be OK. 

I just hope I didn't jinx everything by being this reassuring, but I, and the real meteorologists looking at this situation, just don't see any signs to create an alarm over this. 

FRIDAY

The front will continue to move south. Showers will linger during the morning, especially south. But in the afternoon, you'll notice a change in the air as the humidity gradually blows out of the state behind the front. Highs should generally be in the low 80s.

WEEKEND

Friday's cold front sets us up for a fantastic weekend. Probably the best summer weather weekend of the year. We'll have warm daytime highs, comfortable nights and low humidity. And the sun will generously shine both days.  Highs will be near 80 Saturday and in the low to mid 80s Sunday. Overnight lows will be generally between 55 and 62 degrees. 

You can't have absolute perfection, however. We have additions to the smoke being generated by fires in central Canada and the western U.S.  Wildfires have reinvigorated south of James Bay, Canada and new ones have broken out in northern Quebec.

At the very least, there will probably be some haze in the air over the weekend. It's hard to say at this point how thick that might become. We'll keep you posted as we get closer to the weekend. 

NEXT WEEK PEEK

The first half of next week should be hot again. A heat dome in the middle of the nation will temporarily stretch eastward, bringing the hot air in.  The heat might be interrupted by disturbances carrying showers and storms, but that's still iffy.

After midweek, the heat dome will move west. That will open the door to a potentially fairly long spell of cool air that would start midweek and go on for possibly several days. 

Soaking Rains To Hit Southern Vermont Later Today, Tonight. Only A Little Rain North. We Think

 A brief thunderstorms interrupts a day at the dog park
in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday

 People in northern and central Vermont woke up to mostly clear skies for a change today, after so much rain has fallen in recent days. 

It was already clouding up in anticipation of more rain across southern Vermont. More on that in a minute. 

Sunday, in its own way, was a rather pretty day. Sure. many of us had to dash indoors when the showers an thunderstorms blew through. But the towering thunderstorm clouds and the big fluffy towering cumulus made the sky pretty. 

But, like I said it's going to rain again. Here are the details

MONDAY

The best thing about the upcoming bout of rain is it's mostly going to hit southern Vermont, where they actually kind of need it. Far northern Vermont, which is absolutely saturated at the moment. 

The latest rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service. More than an inch of rain is 
expected by tomorrow morning in southern Vermont,
while far northern Vermont gets very little. 

Southern Vermont really is in for a soaker. Most people from Rutland and Windsor counties south should get more than an inch of rain. Some places will see 1.5 inches, or maybe even close in on two inches in one or two isolated spots in the far southern Green Mountains.

Because it will be a steady drenching rain and not sharp downpours, flooding won't happen. Instead, the water will soak into the relatively dry ground. 

Central Vermont should only get a quarter to a half inch of rain.  Far northern Vermont gets a break from the incessant rain. Those areas should see less than a tenth of an inch. 

There is still a chance the weather system could go a little north of the planned path or a little south. This would change rainfall amounts up or down. The forecast is tricky because there will be a sharp line between heavy rain south and very little north. 

This should mostly come through between late this afternoon and very early tomorrow morning. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

A mostly dry spell for a change. Hallelujah! There might be some widely scattered showers Tuesday afternoon in the north, especially in the mountains, but they shouldn't amount to much. Wednesday actually looks sunny with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 80. So nice early summer weather there. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

It looks like another system will roll with more showers and thunderstorms. An early peek suggest the heaviest rain might fall in the north again. It's still too soon to tell whether this will represent any kind of flood threat or not. 

Rare Tornado Watch In Effect For Vermont/New York Today: High Winds, Then Severe Storms, Some Twisters Possible

UPDATE: 10:30 a.m.

Here's a weather map you don't see 
every day. The greatest chances of
tornadoes today, according to NOAA
are along the Gulf Coast and in 
Vermont (brown shading). 
Still, the risk of a twister is very low
and if severe storms develop today
the trouble would probably come
from intense straight line winds

A rare tornado watch is in effect for Vermont and much of New York.

The tornado watch remains in effect until 3 p.m. It actually covers all of Vermont and most of New York State.'

According to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, strong winds aloft caused by that intense winter like storm will increase the risk of intense winds with the storms, 

Because winds are changing direction in different levels of the atmosphere, some storms could start to rotate, which helps explain why there could be some brief tornadoes in New York or Vermont. 

Already, one tornado warning has been issued in western New York and there are a bunch of severe thunderstorm warnings out there. 

Another unusual thing is the timing. Most severe storm outbreaks peak in the late afternoon and evening, But this storm's cold front is coining earlier. 

And the atmospheric dynamics are so great that severe thunderstorms and even isolated tornadoes can develop in the late morning and early afternoon.

The main threat is strong straight line winds from the storms, by the way. The chances of a tornado are still low, but obviously there. 

Aside from the severe weather threat, winds are increasing in Vermont ahead of the storms as of 10 a.m so scattered  power outages are likely to develop over the next few hours. Even before any thunderstorms get here. 

Definitely be weather aware today and heed any severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings. There's a chance some of these storms might end up being more intense than our typical summer windbags, 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

So far, our storm is playing out as expected here in Vermont, but some surprises might still be in store.

Whatever happens, this will be one of Vermont's nastiest weather days of the summer. 

 A swath of rain, some of it moderate to heavy, was moving through the Green Mountain State as of 8:30 a.m.  Judging from weather radar, the steady rain will soon turn showery, with frequent downpours mixed with brief breaks. 

WIND

The showers will tend to diminish for a relatively brief period later this morning. That's when the wind will really kick in. 

The wind advisory for gusts to 40 to 55 mph is still in effect. It covers all of Vermont except the Connecticut River Valley south of roughly Wells River. 

We'll see some power outages blossom here and there as some trees give up the ghost with the onslaught of winds. 

As I keep saying, winds of that magnitude almost never happen in the summer. When we get this type of storm in the winter, when they're more common,  the wind passes pretty easily through bare branches so it's not as much of a problem. 

Leafed out trees are heavier, and the leaves act as little sails to tug at the trees. In many places, the soil has gotten pretty wet, making it easier to uproot trees when they tilt in the wind. 

This won't exactly be a huge destructive storm like a hurricane, but we'll lose a few trees and branches. 

Strongest winds still look like they'll hit the northern Champlain Valley and the western slopes of the Green Mountains. 

Lake Champlain should be pretty wild with two to four foot waves, maybe even a bit higher than that on the broad lake during the worst of the wind. 

STORMS

The thunderstorm outlook for this afternoon is still challenging. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center still has a slight risk - level 2 out of 5 alert - for severe storms today. 

And here's a new twist. According to the Storm Prediction Center, the two places in the nation with the highest chances of tornadoes today are parts of the Gulf Coast, and Vermont (along with eastern New York and western New Hampshire).

Granted, it's still a very low chance, but not quite as low as we usually see during severe storm risk days.  Usually, when I mention a very low risk of  tornado, it means a 2 percent chance of seeing a twister with 25 miles of your location.

This time, it's a 5 percent chance of seeing a tornado with 25 miles of your location. Those are still low odds, but not as low as it could be. 

The SPC says some low top rotating supercells could get going  in our atmosphere today. But the biggest threat is some storms grabbing some of the odd, high speed air flowing a few thousand feet overhead and bringing those winds to the surface in a few locations. 

If storms develop this afternoon, they'll move rapidly. Storm intensity will probably change quickly, one way or the other, as well. That means you'll get little or no advance warning when they approach.  If you see dark clouds to the west, it'll be best if you get inside a sturdy building quickly, even if there is no severe storm warning in effect at that moment. 

Severe storms in Vermont are NOT a foregone conclusion, however. Maybe the winds aloft could be actually too strong for big thunderstorms to develop. Especially since this morning's rain and a warm layer of air high up in the atmosphere might prevent tall thunderstorms clouds from forming. 

But I wouldn't relax about it. I know we didn't get the predicted severe weather this past Sunday. But this is a completely different weather setup than we had on Sunday, so the outcome on what might happen will also be completely different. 

If we don't get any severe storms, great! But be prepared, because a few towns - not all of us but a fe towns - could really get nailed with nasty, damaging thunderstorm winds. 

The severe storm threat should be over by this evening

FLOODING

Despite the bursts of heavy rain, I'm not too concerned about any flooding. Everything is just moving along too fast. Downpours won't linger over one area too long. Even if we get severe thunderstorms, they will produce torrential downpours that won't last long 

Still, there's a chance that a couple spots could get such a gully washer that a gravel road or two could see damage. The risk is quite low, but there. I notice there is a flood watch in northern New Hampshire. Strong winds hitting the White Mountains is causing the air flow to rise violently, which could set off some nasty downpours there. 

BEYOND TODAY

I won't get into much detail here, because we have our hands full with today. Tomorrow will actually be OK, with some sun, and a chance of afternoon and evening showers or maybe a garden variety thunderstorm. It'll still be quite breezy, but not downright windy like today. Highs will get well into the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday look worse, with showers and garden variety thunderstorms  likely, especially north. It'll be cool, too, with highs Saturday in the 60s to low 70s and readings just a couple degrees higher Sunday. 

Valleys in southern Vermont will probably eek out some decent weather over the weekend with a lower chance of showers and more breaks of sun.

A risk of rain and showers will continue into next week, but temperatures will moderate to near normal late June levels by the middle of the week. We hope. 

A Small Storm Chance Today Followed By Weird, Stormy Vermont Day Tomorrow

Much like this past Sunday, much of the Northeast
including Vermont is in a level two out of five risk
for severe thunderstorms tomorrow (yellow
shading). Whether we get severe storms 
tomorrow depends on whether building storms
can grab high speed air screaming overhead.

 Yesterday was another gorgeous day in Vermont, although a couple late afternoon and evening showers and storms in the Adirondacks. 

Now, we're gearing up for another weird storm in Vermont. It's the "winter storm" I talked about yesterday. More on that  mess in a minute, but let's just look at today's forecast first. Just so we can relax a bit

TODAY

It'll generally be a not bad day. It started off gorgeous with blue skies and in some areas, a nice breeze.

The clouds will tend to increase today, and a couple showers or thunderstorms might pop up this afternoon. Many of us will stay dry, but others will have one or two wet periods. Not a washout at all. Highs should flirt with 80 degrees today. 

THURSDAY 

Kind of a complicated mess of a day with gusty winds, bursts of rain and the risk of severe thunderstorms. 

Our winter-like storm looks like it will set off a nasty tornado and severe thunderstorm outbreak across Illinois and Indiana today. By tomorrow morning, the storm should be somewhere in the general vicinity of Ottawa. 

As I mentioned yesterday, storm systems, if they exist at all in the summer, are almost always very weak. This will be a strong one, the kind of storm you see pretty often in the winter, when storms tend to be a lot more energetic 

In general, the lower the air pressure, the stronger the storm. This one looks like it might have a barometric pressure below 990 millibars, which is near record territory for June. Since the storm will be passing so close to Vermont, we might  have barometer readings that might be close to record lows.

But that's not what we have to worry about. 

The problem with this storm will be wind. We'll have just the regular strong winds that a strong low pressure system stirs up, and the possibility of even more damaging winds with a few strong to severe afternoon thunderstorms. 

Wind

In the summer, since storm systems are weak, we almost never had strong, gusty winds, except of course in thunderstorms. And those thunderstorm winds only cover a small fraction of the state when they do occur.

With our strong storm, it will be windy almost everywhere in Vermont tomorrow. Gusts will reach 35 to 40 mph at times across most of the state, with locally higher winds of up to 45 or 50 mph in a couple spots.  

Those kinds of gusts hit all the time in the winter when the trees are leafless. But now, the trees are heavy with leaves. Each leaf will act like a little sail tugging at trees as the winds blow through. That means a few trees and branches might give up the ghost and crash to the ground. 

Some of those trees will take down power lines. This won't be an anywhere near a blackout situation, but a few scattered power outages seem possible.  I'd stay off of Lake Champlain, too. The broad lake should have at least two to four foot waves, which isn't great for small boats. 

Thunderstorms

A warm front that's part of the storm will throw a burst of moderate to heavy rain at us for a few hours in the morning. There might be a rumble of thunder or two with this, but they won't be severe. It'll just be sort of a stormy, unpleasant morning. 

Then, in the afternoon, the warm front will be in Quebec and the storm's cold front will be to our west, heading our way.

In this zone, we are at risk of severe storms.  But it's iffy. We indeed might see those severe storms. But there's a chance it could end up being like this past Sunday, where no severe storms really developed,

Like last Sunday, Vermont is in a slight risk zone, (alert level 2 out of 5) for severe storms tomorrow, according to NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. 

There will be a lot of clouds around, and it won't get super warm tomorrow (highs in the mid 70s to near 80).  Those conditions would tend to dampen the risk of storms. 

But remember, our parent storm system in southern Canada is super intense for this time of year. Winds several thousand feet overhead will be screaming along. Storms that do develop could grab some of that high speed air and blast it down on us, leading to locally damaging gusts. 

Or, the winds aloft might be so strong that they tilt wannabe thunderstorms so they have trouble getting severe. We don't know yet. 

It's a maybe, maybe not proposition, so stay tuned and be prepared in case there are severe storms tomorrow. The storms will be moving very fast because of those strong upper level winds. So there might not be much warning for you if a severe storm develops. 

Do note that just because we didn't see severe storms last Sunday, we're not immune from such storms tomorrow. This is an entirely different weather setup that we had a few days ago, so you can't rely on last Sunday's weather maps for clues.  

Flooding

I'm not really that worried about flooding. Sure, rain might come down hard at times. But everything will be moving so fast that the downpours will zip on through before they can cause much trouble.

NOAA's Weather Prediction Center does have us in marginal risk zone (Level 1 out of 4) for flash flooding. That's because a few areas of Vermont have gotten really sodden from recent rains, so it might not take much to set off some high water. But if something like that does occur, it will be pretty isolated and scattered.

In general, we should expect a half inch to an inch of rain out of this storm, give or take

AFTER THE STORM

In the winter, storms like this often stalls or slows down way up north in Quebec or in the Canadian Maritime provinces, creating cold northwest winds, wind chills and snow showers. Those snow showers usually focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

None of that will happen, but it will be cool. And breezy. With showers. Rain showers, not snow showers, of course! Those showers could happen anywhere, but yes, they'll focus over northern Vermont and the mountains. 

The cool air won't be really established yet on Friday, so it'll get into the 70s. Best chance of shower is i the afternoon and evening. 

Saturday will be the cold, blustery post-"winter storm" day. Highs will only get into the 60s to around 70, and there will be quite a few showers around. Nothing heavy, but just enough to make the day exactly the opposite of the warm, bright sunny Saturday we had last weekend. 

Sunday will be somewhat better, but we'll still have a risk of light showers. 

Very often, after a winter storm passes just to our north in, say, January,  a follow up storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. That gives Vermont a nice snowstorm, especially south. 

Again, no snow this time, it's a zillion times too warm. But Monday could turn out cool and rainy as a storm comes by and tracks across southern New England. It's still too soon to know how much rain, but the best chances are across southern Vermont. 

This "winter weather pattern" won't last all summer, of course. Temperatures should warm up to more seasonal levels later next week, with no cold season type storms in sight. 

Stormy Vermont Weather Today To Bring Risk Of Damaging Winds, Local Flash Floods

Areas in yellow have the highest chance of 
seeing at least scattered severe thunderstorms
today. You see Vermont is included. 

 Yesterday was as perfect a summer day you can get in Vermont. The skies were blue and flecked with a few pretty puffy clouds. There was no haze, so the Green Mountains glimmered in their proper color. The air was quite warm, the humidity was gone, and a light breeze made it all feel perfect.  

Today, not so much. 

That strong cold front we've been talking about is threatening us with some really bad weather today. For most of us, it will be merely unpleasant, loud and at times dramatic. For a small minority of us, it could actually be dangerous. 

The two threats today are severe thunderstorms and local flash flooding. There is already a flood watch in effect for the northern half of Vermont today into early Monday. 

Who gets slammed with the worst weather today is mostly the luck of the draw. It depends on where the worst storms set up, and where the heaviest downpours fall.

But it's not entirely a guessing game. We do have a broad idea what will happen. But thunderstorms develop pretty quickly, so the exact spot that gets in trouble becomes clear often only minutes before the actual trouble arrives.  

This is the kind of day that you'll maybe want to rethink outdoor plans like hiking in the mountains or boating across Lake Champlain or a picnic on that gorgeous meadow,. 

You'll also want a way to receive warnings from the National Weather Service. I do think a few severe thunderstorm warnings will go out today. And there might well be a flash floor warning or two, especially north. 

 Severe Storms 

Areas in green shading have a very low, but not zero
chance of seeing a tornado today. Note that 
includes northern Vermont. 

On Friday, we didn't have much in the way of severe thunderstorms because the upper winds weren't very strong. That's not the issue today. Those winds high above us will be strong this afternoon and evening, and they will change direction with height. Storms could bring those high winds down on us. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center early this morning updated their outlook. All of Vermont is in a slight risk zone of severe storms . That's a level two out of five risk level.  Actually a huge area is under that slight risk zone, from the western half of New England, as far west as Ohio, and all the way down the East Coast as far as northern Georgia. 

In all these areas, including Vermont, the biggest hazard  from this set up is strong, damaging straight line winds. 

However, in many areas under this risk zone, there's a risk of a brief tornado. That little twister risk includes Vermont north of Route 4 and northern New York, New Hampshire and Maine. 

The risk of a tornado is very, very low, but not zero. 

The best chance for severe storms is from about noon to 6 p.m. north, possibly lasting a little longer than that central and south. 

Flash Flooding

Weather radar at 10 a.m. showed areas of heavy rain
already starting to move toward far northern Vermont.
Repeated rounds of storms and downpours today 
and tonight could lead to some flash flooding, 

Don't let  today's early morning low humidity fool you, a big surge of moisture is coming in, an is about to interact with that slow moving cold front coming at us from the northwest. 

This will be like the thunderstorm risk: Most places won't have a flood, but there's at least a chance some places will, Especially north of Route 2, and most especially near the Canadian border. 

One area of rain, with a few embedded downpours, seemed to be moving into far northern Vermont as of 9:30 a.m. which could be the start of the soaking up there. 

Waves of thunderstorms and torrential showers should sweep across Vermont today and the first half of tonight, and that's especially true in the north. 

Some areas in northern parts of the sate could see more than 2.5 inches of rain out of this, though most places there will get a little over an inch. 

Individual showers and storms will be moving quite fast. That means just one or two storms moving over the same area won't linger long enough to produce flooding rains. But today,   numerous storms look like they will follow the same path, possibly dumping way too much water for brooks, creeks, ditches and culverts to handle. 

It looks like the latest data supports the idea of a flood risk. Early this morning, northern Maine was under a flood watch. By 8:43, a flood watch went up for northern New Hampshire. Then, at 9:23 a.m., the National Weather Service in South Burlington issued that flood watch for northern Vermont. 

Bottom line: Today is one of those annoying days where we'll be dodging bad and sometimes dangerous weather. Unfortunately, a very few of us might be picked by Ma Nature to end up picking up pieces and filing insurance claims. 

Not just here, but up and down the East Coast. 

REST OF THE WEEK

The good news, I suppose, is that this cold front will usher in some delightful weather tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Highs both days will be in the 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

Another strong storm for this time of year possibly looms for this Thursday, but let's worry about today and get to that one later.