Vermont Severe Storm Risk, Possible Local Flash Flood Issue, Too.

Areas in dark green and yellow have chances of severe
thunderstorms today. Areas in yellow have a somewhat
greater chance of severe storms than in the
dark green areas. 

We're in for another active day of weather across  Vermont today, but as always, there will be winners and losers. 

A handful of places could get too much wind, too much hail, too much rain, too much lightning. A few other places won't get the rain they need. 

We'll have a storm risk all day, but the big hours to watch will between 3 and 8 p.m. All of Vermont has at least a small risk of isolated severe storms. The best chance of severe storms will be west of the Green Mountains from Middlebury south. 

But, again, anyone in Vermont and surrounding areas could have a severe storm today. 

A warm front is working northward through Vermont this morning. That front could touch off some scattered showers and thunderstorms later this morning. I noticed on radar a few small downpours near Glens Falls, New York heading northeastward toward Vermont as of 8 a.m. today.

You'll notice the humidity increase rapidly this morning and early this afternoon as we get the ingredients in place for this afternoon's expected rough weather. 

The storms will probably come through in lines or clusters, with damaging winds the main threat.   There is a very, very low chance that one or two storms could start rotating enough to produce a brief spin up tornado.  It's been that kind of summer. 

Another issue is the risk of local flash flooding. The ground is dry enough so that a few downpours shouldn't cause any issues. However, we could get some "training" storms, the ones that line up and go one right after another over the same spot, like boxcars moving along a train track. 

If there is any flash flooding, it will be in pretty small local areas. Nothing widespread with this. The best chance of local flooding should be in the southern half of Vermont. As an early guess, I'd be tempted to especially watch Rutland and Windsor counties. But we can't completely rule out some water mischief in the north, either.

So, we have the usual advice. It's probably not the best day to head out onto the lake or go hiking in the Green Mountains. Pay attention to the sky. Dark clouds gathering to the west? Rumbles of thunder? That's your cue to get indoors. 

As always, the National Weather Service will issue warnings and advisories as needed, and the local TV stations will cut in to broadcasting to provide updates if parts of the state are under threat of a bad storm. 

This probably won't be the most extensive severe weather outbreak ever, or even the most extensive one of this stormy summer. But it is something to take seriously if severe weather threatens.  

FRIDAY

The actual cold front should go through tomorrow morning, with not much fanfare. There could be some showers in the morning. The front might be slow enough so that it could squeak out a weak thunderstorm in southeast Vermont, but no biggie.  Then some clearing and more refreshing air arrive in the afternoon and evening. 

SATURDAY

Another winning weather Saturday is in the cards. Dawn will break cool, with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 50.  A lot of river valleys will be pretty foggy, too. But the fog will burn off to sunny skies with afternoon highs in the 70s. The humidity will stay at refreshing levels, too,

SUNDAY AND BEYOND

It looks like we'll be in a zone Sunday afternoon and into the week where a weather front will either windshield wiper back and forth, north to south and back north again for a few days. Or it will stall sort of near us. 

That make it hard to forecast this far in advance. Suffice it to say we'll have daily shower chances Sunday through Tuesday at least.

Interestingly, NOAA's six to ten day weather outlook, issued every day in mid afternoon, has swung decided warm and wet for the opening days of September. It's a long range forecast, so things could change. But it does point toward the chance of some weird late season severe weather to open up the first few days of the new month. 

 

Soaking Rains To Hit Southern Vermont Later Today, Tonight. Only A Little Rain North. We Think

 A brief thunderstorms interrupts a day at the dog park
in St. Albans, Vermont on Sunday

 People in northern and central Vermont woke up to mostly clear skies for a change today, after so much rain has fallen in recent days. 

It was already clouding up in anticipation of more rain across southern Vermont. More on that in a minute. 

Sunday, in its own way, was a rather pretty day. Sure. many of us had to dash indoors when the showers an thunderstorms blew through. But the towering thunderstorm clouds and the big fluffy towering cumulus made the sky pretty. 

But, like I said it's going to rain again. Here are the details

MONDAY

The best thing about the upcoming bout of rain is it's mostly going to hit southern Vermont, where they actually kind of need it. Far northern Vermont, which is absolutely saturated at the moment. 

The latest rainfall prediction map from the National 
Weather Service. More than an inch of rain is 
expected by tomorrow morning in southern Vermont,
while far northern Vermont gets very little. 

Southern Vermont really is in for a soaker. Most people from Rutland and Windsor counties south should get more than an inch of rain. Some places will see 1.5 inches, or maybe even close in on two inches in one or two isolated spots in the far southern Green Mountains.

Because it will be a steady drenching rain and not sharp downpours, flooding won't happen. Instead, the water will soak into the relatively dry ground. 

Central Vermont should only get a quarter to a half inch of rain.  Far northern Vermont gets a break from the incessant rain. Those areas should see less than a tenth of an inch. 

There is still a chance the weather system could go a little north of the planned path or a little south. This would change rainfall amounts up or down. The forecast is tricky because there will be a sharp line between heavy rain south and very little north. 

This should mostly come through between late this afternoon and very early tomorrow morning. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY

A mostly dry spell for a change. Hallelujah! There might be some widely scattered showers Tuesday afternoon in the north, especially in the mountains, but they shouldn't amount to much. Wednesday actually looks sunny with temperatures within a few degrees either side of 80. So nice early summer weather there. 

THURSDAY/FRIDAY

It looks like another system will roll with more showers and thunderstorms. An early peek suggest the heaviest rain might fall in the north again. It's still too soon to tell whether this will represent any kind of flood threat or not. 

The Other Side Of Summer: Peak Of The Season Is Passed, But Not Autumn Yet!

The end of a brief downpour Sunday evening over
St. Albans, Vermont yielded this lovely sunset. 
Some people in Franklin County and the northern
Lake Champlain islands with a view to the east
were also treated to a spectacular, giant rainbow.

 It looks like we ended what I can "peak summer" on August 5.  That's when a long, long stretch of heat and humidity finally broke. 

Now, we're on what I call the other side of summer, the beginning of a long slide toward autumn. We can still get big heat waves. We can still endure insufferable humidity any time in the next few weeks. 

But at least slightly cooler air should keep making intrusions. It's a reminder that those store back to school sales, which started the day after school let out in June, should properly be beginning right about now. 

The weather here in Vermont since August 5 has varied from warm but not hot, to just kind of comfortable. We should expect the same stuff for at least a week.  Though humidity might make a comeback for awhile beginning toward the weekend. 

Right now, there's a chilly pool of air high overhead. The snow level over Vermont was expected to get as low as 7,500 feet above sea level last night and part of today, so it's that cold way up there. If we had tall mountains like out West, we'd have snow capped peaks this morning. 

The contrast between the relative warmth down here and the cold air up there creates instability. Which means quite a few scattered showers. That explains the very changeable weather we had Sunday. 

NEW YORK TORNADO?

As a side note, New York State just can't catch a break. I guess the Empire State is a new Tornado Alley.

This kind of weather pattern, the cold air aloft and the kinda warmish air down here, usually sets off a bunch of showers and garden-variety thunderstorms. Nothing severe or scary.

That's just what happened yesterday. Everybody in the region saw those mild-mannered showers and friendly little thunderstorms.

Except northeast of Utica, New York. One weird thunderstorm last evening got intense for some reason and started spinning, prompting a tornado warning in that region. I don't know whether a tornado actually touched down. Luckily, the storm weakened quite a bit not long after, ending the threat. That thunderstorm eventually entered southwestern Vermont as a run of the mill brief, harmless downpour. 

New York State has already had 27 tornadoes this year, shattering a previous record for most tornadoes in a year. Just on Friday, the 27th New York tornado of 2024 was confirmed. It was a weak EF-0 twister was confirmed along the New York State Thruway near New Paltz, in the lower Hudson Valley on Friday.

FORECAST

Back here in Vermont, we have those garden variety showers and storms to dodge again today. Since it's so cold aloft, don't be surprised to see a bit of pea-sized hail mixed in if you're caught in a somewhat stronger storm.  

The air aloft will tend to warm up a bit starting tomorrow, so showers should be much fewer and further between. For the rest of the week, at least through Friday, it's going to be a battle between high pressure trying to scoot in for fair weather and upper level cool air and low pressure trying to keep the showers going. 

Best guess is Wednesday will be the nicest day, while we might end up dodging showers again Thursday. 

Some sort of new storm system looks like it wants to come in next weekend, but it's unclear how that will play out. We'll probably end up with somewhat higher humidity and more showers. I have no idea yet if those showers will be heavy and plentiful, or just nuisance sprinkles. 

HURRICANE ERNESTO?

For starters, just to make you relax, this doesn't look like the following will be Vermont's problem. 

A disturbance is organizing in the middle of the tropical Atlantic, and it's widely forecasted to eventually become Hurricane Ernesto.

It's a threat to the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico.  It'll be moving westward at first. However, toward Wednesday or Thursday, what will be Ernesto will take a hard right turn, and head northward over the open Atlantic far, far to the east of the United States. It looks like it could become quite a powerful hurricane out there, though.  

Beginning The Long Slide Toward (Ahem) Winter, But In No Hurry

A sign that the season is progressing. The hydrangeas
near my lower deck start out white, and are now turning
pink as we head toward late summer. By autumn,
they'll be a nice russet color. 

 If you look at what are considered average temperatures, we began our slide toward the depths of winter on Friday.  

Don't worry, the National Weather Service will not be issuing winter storm warnings anytime soon.  Heat advisories, maybe, but no winter stuff. 

Still, what is considered the normal average temperature on Friday was 72.5 degrees, down every so slightly from the 73 degree "normal" readings that were the summer peak throughout the middle of July.

Of course, the downward trend will continue - slowly at firs - then more rapidly until it bottoms out in January. 

There's plenty of summer to get through, though. August can be hot, as we know. The weather pattern suggests that for now, we're not going to see much of a cooling trend.

In fact, today might well be the coldest day we'll see in Vermont through mid-August. Not that you're going to freeze. Afternoon highs today will be in the 70s, with the warmest spots maybe touching 80 degrees. 

That's maybe a couple degrees cooler than average, but definitely not autumnal. Tonight will be comfortable, too.  Definitely a nice day, with sun, and some puffy clouds mixed in. And a nice breeze.

Then it heats up.

The dreaded heat dome that's been drifting around the nation all summer is back at it.  The heat this week and weekend is focused on the Pacific Northwest, where dozens upon dozens of new high temperature records have been set. It's also an unusually long heat wave for them, lasting a full week. Which makes the heat especially dangerous. Four heat related deaths have already been reported in Oregon. 

But that heat dome wants to expand and slosh eastward next week. That'll finally cool places like Washington and Oregon down a bit. But the nation's middle will turn torrid again. The expanding heat dome, with an assist from the Bermuda High out in the Atlantic Ocean, will ensure most of the Uniteed States, including Vermont stay toasty for at least the next week or two.  

Luckily, we're far enough north so that occasional weak cold fronts from Canada through mid-month will on some days blunt the heat here. For the next couple of weeks, it looks like some days in Vermont will be hot, other days will be merely warm and a little uncomfortable. For the upcoming week, the hottest days look to be Monday and Thursday. 

Enjoy it while it lasts. Before you know it, you'll be reading about wind chill and winter storm watches in this here blog thingy. .