Incredibly Persistent Heat Dome Roasts Middle Of U.S; Ring Of Fire Storms In Northeast, We In Vermont Escapes

Schematic of a heat dome and ring of fire, similar to the
one we've been under since late July.  Hot sinking air
creates intense heat in the center of the nation. The 
edges of the heat dome has frequent bouts of 
severe thunderstorms. Graphic is from Iowa 
Storm Chasing Network

The weather pattern in the United States has been stuck since the end of July, which is an awfully long time for things to stay the same. It's been at least six weeks now with the same set up, with no sign of it ending soon. 

That's despite the fact that the season is changing, and weather patterns tend to get disrupted as we head into fall. This is an amazingly persistent stuck weather pattern, easily among the longest and most impressive I've seen. 

Here's how it's working:

A heat dome set up in the south-central part of the United States in late July and it's been there since. 

That has caused some horrible weather in much of the Lower 48. First, the heat: 

In Memphis, Tennessee every day since August 4 has been 90 degrees or more. It was 100 degrees on Wednesday and 101 on Thursday. Today through next Thursday will range from 98 to 101. 

In Oklahoma City, the final week of July featured daily high temperatures in the 100s. Then, 23 days in August reached 100 degrees, peaking at 109 degrees. It should be near 100 degrees there daily at least through Thursday.. 

Little Rock, Arkansas, all but one August day was 90 degrees or more. 13 days reached at least 100 degrees. 

The northern and often northeastern periphery of heat domes are known as the "ring of fire." the contrast between the deep heat and humidity to the south and cooler weather to the north creates intense batches of thunderstorms. 

That's why the Great Lakes and Northeast have been repeatedly raked by severe storms, flash floods and even tornadoes. Yesterday. a band extending from Michigan to Delaware endured severe weather. The day before, it the severe weather extended from Ontario to Virginia, with at least three tornadoes in western New York 

VERMONT CALMNESS

Here in Vermont, the weather pattern favored us. Sometimes, the "ring of fire" storms extended up here into northern New England, which helps explain why we had a few bouts with severe storms in late July and August.

But overall, this weather pattern makes Vermont a calm island in the wild conditions hitting much of the U.S.  Temperatures have been near normal, or just barely warmer than normal. The only drawback is that since we're north of the deep moisture associated with the ring of fire, rainfall has been lacking. 

It's not nearly as dry as it was at this time last year, when Vermont was in a deep drought. But, with the weather pattern stuck in place for now, we probably aren't going to see a super big rainstorm anytime soon. 

The specific forecast:

Today

Overall, a nice one. Partly cloudy, though mostly cloudy over the northern mountains. There could be a few light showers here and there, but most of us will stay dry. Highs should be comfortably in the 70s.

Saturday

It'll be a little cloudier than today, and a somewhat greater chance of showers. But the showers won't be light. If it rains where you are, it won't last all day. Not even close. Most of the day will be dry. Some places will see no rain. It'll be a little cooler. Highs will be in the upper 60s northern hilly areas and low to mid 70s in warmer valleys. 

Sunday

Another nice day. Cool-ish, low humidity, quite a bit of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys. Highs will be in the low 70s.

Next Week and Beyond

We'll continue to see occasional rather weak disturbance come through occasionally with likely light showers. One thing that is changing is that cool high pressure systems that come through once we hit September become larger and, of course, cooler than they were in August. I'm not ready to talk about frost yet, but sooner or later, that's going to be an issue. 

Also, the weather pattern will have to eventually break down. Larger autumn storms should eventually give us some more substantial rainstorms. And, eventually, snowstorms once we head toward winter.