Incredibly Persistent Heat Dome Roasts Middle Of U.S; Ring Of Fire Storms In Northeast, We In Vermont Escapes

Schematic of a heat dome and ring of fire, similar to the
one we've been under since late July.  Hot sinking air
creates intense heat in the center of the nation. The 
edges of the heat dome has frequent bouts of 
severe thunderstorms. Graphic is from Iowa 
Storm Chasing Network

The weather pattern in the United States has been stuck since the end of July, which is an awfully long time for things to stay the same. It's been at least six weeks now with the same set up, with no sign of it ending soon. 

That's despite the fact that the season is changing, and weather patterns tend to get disrupted as we head into fall. This is an amazingly persistent stuck weather pattern, easily among the longest and most impressive I've seen. 

Here's how it's working:

A heat dome set up in the south-central part of the United States in late July and it's been there since. 

That has caused some horrible weather in much of the Lower 48. First, the heat: 

In Memphis, Tennessee every day since August 4 has been 90 degrees or more. It was 100 degrees on Wednesday and 101 on Thursday. Today through next Thursday will range from 98 to 101. 

In Oklahoma City, the final week of July featured daily high temperatures in the 100s. Then, 23 days in August reached 100 degrees, peaking at 109 degrees. It should be near 100 degrees there daily at least through Thursday.. 

Little Rock, Arkansas, all but one August day was 90 degrees or more. 13 days reached at least 100 degrees. 

The northern and often northeastern periphery of heat domes are known as the "ring of fire." the contrast between the deep heat and humidity to the south and cooler weather to the north creates intense batches of thunderstorms. 

That's why the Great Lakes and Northeast have been repeatedly raked by severe storms, flash floods and even tornadoes. Yesterday. a band extending from Michigan to Delaware endured severe weather. The day before, it the severe weather extended from Ontario to Virginia, with at least three tornadoes in western New York 

VERMONT CALMNESS

Here in Vermont, the weather pattern favored us. Sometimes, the "ring of fire" storms extended up here into northern New England, which helps explain why we had a few bouts with severe storms in late July and August.

But overall, this weather pattern makes Vermont a calm island in the wild conditions hitting much of the U.S.  Temperatures have been near normal, or just barely warmer than normal. The only drawback is that since we're north of the deep moisture associated with the ring of fire, rainfall has been lacking. 

It's not nearly as dry as it was at this time last year, when Vermont was in a deep drought. But, with the weather pattern stuck in place for now, we probably aren't going to see a super big rainstorm anytime soon. 

The specific forecast:

Today

Overall, a nice one. Partly cloudy, though mostly cloudy over the northern mountains. There could be a few light showers here and there, but most of us will stay dry. Highs should be comfortably in the 70s.

Saturday

It'll be a little cloudier than today, and a somewhat greater chance of showers. But the showers won't be light. If it rains where you are, it won't last all day. Not even close. Most of the day will be dry. Some places will see no rain. It'll be a little cooler. Highs will be in the upper 60s northern hilly areas and low to mid 70s in warmer valleys. 

Sunday

Another nice day. Cool-ish, low humidity, quite a bit of sunshine, especially in the broader valleys. Highs will be in the low 70s.

Next Week and Beyond

We'll continue to see occasional rather weak disturbance come through occasionally with likely light showers. One thing that is changing is that cool high pressure systems that come through once we hit September become larger and, of course, cooler than they were in August. I'm not ready to talk about frost yet, but sooner or later, that's going to be an issue. 

Also, the weather pattern will have to eventually break down. Larger autumn storms should eventually give us some more substantial rainstorms. And, eventually, snowstorms once we head toward winter. 

Unprecedented Heat From March Still Has Climatologists, Others, Losing Sleep At Night, But It's All A Scary Sign Of The Times

March was so hot in the western and central U.S. was so
extreme it's still keeping climatologists up at night.
These kinds of "unprecedented" hot spells and 
extremes are now becoming regular occurrences
in this age of climate change. 

There's patches of record warmth remaining in the United States as we make our way through the first week of April, but the extreme, whackadoodle heat of March has subsided. 

Scientists are still agog from March, which is easily going down in history as among the most extreme, over the top, seemingly impossible climate-related events hot spells ever seen.  The heat wave completely rewrote the March weather record books in the western and central U.S. 

It was the kind of event that keeps climatologists up at night.  Especially since these "impossible" events are coming along in a steady stream now. Each one bigger than the last. And each one potentially more deadly. 

We're lucky this one hit in March, months before summer. Had it happened in July, who knows how many deaths would have been created by just the hot days themselves? Even so, the heat set the stage for a potential summer of out-of-control wildfires and deep water shortages. 

Already, fires are burning months before they should. A raging wildfire threatened homes in Moreno Valley , California last week. It was the kind of fire you see in parched late summer and early autumn and not moist March. But the rules have changed. March is the new summer, apparently.  

Nebraska just experienced their largest wildfires in history, burning an area larger than Rhode Island. 

And we've probably only just begun with the fires.

THE EXTREME MARCH HEAT

It's hard to know where even to begin with the accounting for March's heat. 

AccuWeather gives just a glimpse of the breadth of the March heat wave: 

 "During the unprecedented mid-March heat waves in the central and western United States, more than 8,200 daily records and more than 2,000 monthly records were broken at weather stations across the West."

Incredibly, 17 states set new March record highs.  And these are large western and central states, not smaller Eastern states where it's a bit easier to accumulate numerous record highs. Many of these states broke monthly record highs, only to have those records broken in subsequent days. 

The nation saw its hottest March temperature on record at 112 degrees. It came close to setting the April national record of 113 degrees.

No fewer than 16 western cities not only broke their all-time highs for the month of March, they also broke or tied the mark for April, which is beyond insane. 

On March 19 alone, nearly half of the 900 or so long term U.S.. weather stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network set or tied daily record highs. 

More than four dozen major reporting stations with data since at least the 1960s had their warmest March in history.  Major cities that had their warmest March on record, - most of them by a wide margin - include Dallas, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Albuquerque, Denver, Salt Lake City, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Francisco. 

Once all the numbers are crunched, it looks like Colorado will end up with a March that was three or four degrees warmer than any other in the past 130 years or so. For a state to break its statewide record for hottest March by a degree is wild. By three degrees ----there's no words for it. 

We still don't have confirmation as to whether March, 2026, is the nation's hottest on record. That will come in a week or two. But it was at the very least as warm as what was considered the impossibly hot March of 2012.

CHAIN OF EXTREMES 

Climate change doesn't just warm up the world uniformly. It sets traps. Springs surprises. 

As Yale Climate Connections notes: 

"Since climate change is also fundamentally disrupting atmospheric circulation patterns, we now have mega-unprecedented extreme events occurring with regularity. These circulation changes allow the biggest regional and local heat extremes to intensify by a much larger margin than the roughly 1.4 degrees Celsius increase in average global temperature since preindustrial times."

Honestly, climate change contributes to new extremes every weeks, or so it seems. But the standouts - the weather events that make climatologists and other scientists deeply worry about the future  - seemed to begin almost exactly 14 years prior to this March's heat.

In March, 2012 most of the heat focused on the central and eastern United States.  Thousands of daily record highs were set, as were hundreds of all time record highs for March.  Among those thousands of record highs, nearly four dozen were broken by at least 22 degrees, which is beyond insane. Four record highs were smashed by 30 degrees. In a handful of cases, the low temperature on a particular date on March 12 was warmer than the record high.

 "An initial assessment led by Martin Hourlong at the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratories concede that human-produced warming likely contributed on the order of 5% to 10% of the magnitude the heat woven March 12-23, 2012, The report added: "the probability of heat waves is growing as (greenhouse gas)-induced warming continues to progress," notes Yale Climate Connections. 

Still, we figured we wouldn't see another March, 2012 in our lifetimes again. Until we did.

The March heat of 2012 came at the tail end of a La Nina, and led to an extreme, punishing drought across the nation's middle that summer.  We're in the same situation now. It might not be just the western mountains that are running out of water. 

Much of the central and southern Plains are already in serious drought. Will this key crop growing area further dry out? There's already plenty of other stresses out there with food production - political instability, tariffs, war, a feckless president.  

We are set up for a rough summer, and March probably just made it much, much more rough. 

WATER SHORTAGES?

Colorado's snow pack ended the month at less than a quarter of average. Eighty-nine of 94 snow pack measuring stations were at record lows by the end of March. 

It's not just Colorado. It's virtually all of the West. Per the Guardian: 

'This year is on a whole other level.' say Dr. Russ Schumacher, a Colorado State University climatologist, speaking about the intense heat that began rapidly melting the already sparse snowpack in March. 'Seeing this year so far below any of the other years we have data for is very concerning."

On April 1, media went out to join California water officials to take a measurement of the water content of snow at a spot in the Sierra Nevada. Normally, the group would be standing on five feet of snow. This time, they were standing on a muddy field, flecked with melting remains of snow patches. 

Snow water equivalent is a measurement is the amount of water of that would melt out of the snow that's still on the ground.  This figure is now terrifying throughout the West. 

The overall snow water equivalent in the Sierra Nevada on April 1 was just 18 percent of average for this time of year.  In the Great Basin, snow water equivalent was just 16 percent of normal. In the lower Colorado River basin area, including most of Arizona and Nevada, it was 10 percent. The Rio Grande, which covers New Mexico, Texas and Colorado was at 8 percent. 

Because of a record warm winter, the snow pack was far below normal before March arrived. Everyone hoped for a "March Miracle," as some bad years in the past were relieved by cold, stormy Marches. Not this year. Not by a long shot.

If this were just one bad year, we'd be OK. But the six lowest April 1 snowpacks in California have happened since 2007. The state thought it was finally catching a break in January as it fully emerged from drought for the first time since in a quarter century. 

Reservoirs are pretty full in California, thanks to warm rains in recent winters that filled them even though the state couldn't build a decent snowpack. So at least for this year, the problem for most of that state would be intense wildfires but not necessarily widespread water shortages. 

Elsewhere, things are not nearly so serene. 

In the Colorado basin, Lake Mead is 25 percent full. Lake Powell was only 33 percent or so full at last check. Both lakes usually rise somewhat in the spring due to snow melt. It doesn't look like that's really happening this year. 

Water managers area already urging conservation in the West. 

Salt Lake City has called on residents and businesses to start conserving now, with a goal of cutting overall water usage by 10 percent, Also, as the Guardian reports:

"Across Colorado, there are local orders that list lawn watering, and in Wyoming, residents were warned that full restrictions on outdoor irrigation could come come as early as May."

Farmers and ranchers across the West are also having to make hard decisions and big adjustments with smaller allocations of water and a recognition that supplies will be strained. 

TIMING

What if a heat dome like the one we just saw in March hit during the middle of summer? And hit in a place not accustomed to extreme heat. 

We found out in late June and early July, 2021 when an unprecedented - here's that word again - intense, heat settled into southwestern Canada and the Pacific Northwest of the United States.

 All-time heat records in the Pacific Northwest were not just broken, they were obliterated. Portland Oregon reached 116 degrees. Salem, Oregon was 117 degrees. Rainy, cool Seattle reached 108 degrees.

The heat of 2021 was even more punishing in British Columbia, Canada. On June 29, 2021, the town of Lytton, British Columbia reached 121 degrees, the hottest temperature ever recorded anywhere in Canada. By a long shot. Before this heat wave, the hottest it had gotten anywhere in Canada was 113 degrees back in the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s. 

The next day, Lytton burned down in a massive wildfire brought on by the scorching heat and drought. 

The 2021 heat wave is estimated to have caused at least 1,400 deaths in Canada and the U.S. 

What if a heat dome like that in 2021 settled into the heavily populated eastern United States and southeastern Canada? And what if it lasted a month, not a week? Nobody is prepared for such a nightmare. 

However, we'll find out soon enough. Perhaps this summer. Or the next. And it won't be pretty. 

 

Heat Is Gone From Vermont. Next, A New Flood Threat?

An early guess  from the National Weather Service as to
how much rain might fall between now and Sunday 
morning. Orange areas would receive two or  more
inches of rain. Note that this forecast will probably
change, perhaps by a lot, so for now take
it with a grain of salt.  

 The heat wave struggled to hang on in Vermont and the rest of New England Wednesday, but was overwhelmed by that cold front from Canada.  

It still got warm in northern Vermont, with highs reaching as high as 86 in Burlington. 

That's far better than the upper 90s of the previous few days, though. And the humidity really crashed. The dew point was an oppressive 70 degrees in Burlington at 7 a.m,. but was a refreshing 57 by 4 p.m. 

Southern and eastern Vermont held on to some of the heat for one more day, though at least it wasn't record breaking. 

Lebanon, New Hampshire, just across the river from White River Junction, reached 94 degrees. It was 92 degrees in Springfield, Vermont Wednesday. 

Today, the heat is suppressed way down south, broiling places like the Mid-Atlantic States and places like West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois.

But this "heat dome" isn't done with us. 

No, it's not going to see record heat again up here in Vermont from this thing again. But the heat dome is going to try to push north again. It might not really make it back into the Green Mountain State again. But it'll work in concert with the usual weather disturbances that ride along the northern edge of these things to give Vermont - sigh - a potential flash flood threat.

It's not as if Vermont needs another flood after what we've been through in recent years. But here we go again. Maybe.  The good news is that so far, even if Vermont sees any flooding Saturday, it shouldn't be catastrophic like we saw in the Julys of 2023 and 2024.

We might not end up having any trouble at all.   But the potential is there.  

FLOOD RISK EXPLAINED

 Leading up to the heavier rain that might come in later Friday and Saturday, it look like the weather will get increasingly unsettled, just little hints of what might - or might not be to come. (I'll explain why I'm hedging here in just a bit).

Dying disturbances coming in from the west should cloud us up by this afternoon and spread light showers across much of Vermont. Nothing dangerous here. Just enough to wet the ground a bit.

We'll still be at risk of lighter showers tonight and most of Friday. 

The potential trouble starts Friday night into Saturday.  

As that "heat dome" pushes north a little bit, it''sl shove a warm front toward Vermont. That will vastly increase atmospheric moisture over us. It will also enhance upper level winds over southern Quebec, which tend to add lift to the atmosphere, which encourages heavy rain. 

The contrast between the cooler air to the north and hot, humid air to the south will also sharpen up. All these factors would create what will be a relatively narrow west to east streak of occasionally torrential rains somewhere.  Most like either in southern Quebec and/or across northern New York, northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire.

As of this morning, meteorologists seemed pretty confident about the overall weather setup Friday night and Saturday, but less sure about the precise location of the heavy rain.

Maybe it will stay in southern Quebec, sparing us in Vermont any trouble. Or, it could really hit areas north of Route 2, setting up a potential risk of flash flooding.

Since we Vermonters all have flood PTSD, I'll note again that even if the heaviest rain hits Vermont - fingers majorly crossed - it doesn't look like it would be a catastrophic flood. But still potentially troublesome. And of course all the meteorologists and experts will keep a close eye on this so we don't get any surprises. 

Early guesses are the steep terrain of the northern Green Mountains is the most likely problem spot. Especially up near Jay Peak and surrounding communities.  If torrential rain develops, runoff would cascade down those steep slopes, causing those risky flash floods.

The first rainfall estimates I've seen suggest up to four inches up near Jay Peak, and between two and 2.5 inches in the northern Champlain Valley and Northeast Kingdom, with locally higher amounts.

The far northern Adirondacks and far northern New Hampshire are also at risk of flooding, as noted by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. 

Take that with a grain of salt for now. Depending on how this sets up, actual amounts could be much less, or a little more than forecasts are now suggesting. Again, it all depends on where that band of heaviest rain would set up. 

The National Weather Service is toying with the idea of maybe issuing a flood watch for northern Vermont. As of this morning, they were holding off for now because the rainfall forecast is still so questionable. 

I'm pretty relaxed central and southern Vermont.  I suppose there could be a surprise, but all signs point to rain south of Route 2, but nothing scary.   

Those rains should start to taper off later Saturday. It looks like it might turn briefly pretty warm and humid toward the beginning of next week, but it won't be anything as torrid as we had a few days ago. 

More showers and storms also seem likely Monday night and Tuesday, but it's too soon to tell how widespread those might be.  

Hot As The Fourth Of July Indeed As 90 Degree Days Pile Up In Vermont

Lillies blooming in the hot sun of 
Fourth of July, 2024 in St. Albans, 
Vermont. Temperatures made it
to 90 degrees in parts of the state
and we might have more such
days in the coming week. 

 It was a bit of surprise, but at least in Burlington, Vermont, we made it to 90 degrees on the Fourth of July. 

We knew it was going to be warm and humid Thursday, but it did get a little hotter than expected. We had a bit more sun than I had anticipated, which helped boost temperatures.

I guess the weather gods wanted to keep with tradition. You know, "Hot as the Fourth of July" and all that jazz. 

It's turning out to be a very warm summer, as expected, at least so far. I wonder if the  Fourth of July heat could be a sign that this summer might make it into the top ten warmest.

Burlington actually has 14 summers in their list of top ten warmest, since there are several ties on the list. In five of those summers, it was 90 degrees on the Fourth of July. 

That might not seem like much, but the chances of a 90 degree day falling on a specific day in Vermont, no matter how hot the summer, is pretty iffy.

The 90 degrees on July 4 this year is the sixth time it got to that level this year. We're on a - pardon the pun - blistering pace.  

Even if we don't have another 90 degree day for the rest of the summer, only 48 out of the past 123 entire years in Burlington have had at least six days that got that hot. 

Of course, the Champlain Valley is Vermont's banana belt. Most of the rest of the state has fewer 90s than places like Burlington. 

We'll have more chances at hitting 90 degrees, at least in the Champlain Valley in the coming days and probably weeks. 

The United States right now is dominated by two heat domes - one along the West Coast, the other on the East Coast.  In between, a little bit of a dip in the jet stream is keeping the northern and central parts of the Great Plains and Midwest relatively reasonable

As a reminder, a heat dome is a big area of summertime high pressure that features lots of sinking air. That sinking air causes compressional warming, which makes hot air even hotter.

By far, the strongest of the two heat domes is in the West. That heat dome is intense, long lasting, and will likely lead to some all time high temperatures in areas from the central Rockies to the Pacific Coast. 

Climate change is making this type of scary heat dome more likely. 

Luckily for us in Vermont, the heat dome in the East is pretty much a typical Bermuda High. There might be a few record highs, but not all that many, really. 

Plus, Vermont is on the northern edge of this big eastern heat zone. That means we're subject to weak disturbances that tend to temper the heat. 

Still, it's going to be uncomfortable out there, with more chances at 90 degree heat. Today could be another 90 degree afternoon. Especially since it was already 87 degrees in Burlington as of 1 p.m.  

On Saturday, if expected showers and storms hold off long enough, we could make another run at 90 degrees. Monday and Tuesday of next week could also get that warm. Maybe. 

Whether or not it actually gets to 90 degrees on any day now through the start of next week, you'll want to take it easy. Humidity will stay  high, so you'll not want to overexert yourself outdoors. And, like we did in June, keep an eye on your elderly neighbors, especially if they don't have air conditioning.

Maybe kidnap them again and take them to a movie. "Despicable Me 4" with all those yellow pill-like Minions might be good for a few laughs. 

There are some uncertain signs that dip in the jet stream over the Midwest might edge a little further east briefly in about a week, giving us a break from the warmth and humidity. 

That said, the overall weather pattern features a much better than even chance of warmer than average temperatures at least into the third week of July.  

"Heat Dome" That's Been Baking Mexico Spreads To U.S.; Could Impact Rest Of Nation Over The Summer

A schematic of a heat dome over the middle of the
United States. In a heat dome, high pressure
causing sinking air, which ensures strong sun
trapping hot air in place. 

What is known as a "heat dome" - a persistent, torrid high pressure system, has been baking Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, has been expanding in recent days and weeks to affect the United States.   

Heat domes are fairly common mostly over continents in the summer. But they've been getting more intense with climate change. 

The latest heat dome has been killing people, causing droughts and fires, and also triggering intense storms,  especially along its edges.

Mexico City residents are rationing water as drought dries up supplies. The city could run out of water as early as June 26, even as the region's hoped for rainy season starts about then, according to Axios.

The Mexican heat has been brutal on wildlife, too. Mexico's famous howler monkeys have been dying in the heat. As of Sunday, 157 of the monkeys had succumbed in southern Mexico. An endangered salamander looks like it might go extinct because of the heat. 

All time record high temperatures have been set in parts of Mexico, Belize and other Central American and Caribbean nations. 

 The heat has been making inroads into Florida and Texas in recent days. 

Del Rio, Texas reached 109 degrees last week, setting an all time record high for the month of May. 

As of Sunday, four of Houston's 20 hottest May days since the late 1880s happened this month. 

There's been little relief from the heat at night. Kingsville, Texas recently had an overnight "low" of 84 degrees, the highest low temperature on record in May for anywhere in Texas. 

The heat index in Miami was 112 degrees on both May 18 and 19.  That's only happened once before, in  August of last year. But it's only May, so that episode was especially bizarre.

SUMMER DANGER

All this adds a potentially ominous tone for the summer in the United States. It's inevitable that the heat dome will expand into the  Lower 48 and perhaps southern Canada as we move through June, July and August. 

Most likely, it will persist for a few days over a certain region, then shift to somewhere else and back again.  Given the intensity of the heat dome and climate change, this could lead to dangerous all time record highs at the height of summer. 

An intense heat dome in the Pacific Northwest and southwestern Canada in 2021 led to the all-time record high for  Canada of 121 degrees in Lytton, British Columbia. That town burned down the next day in a wildfire that was greatly accelerated by the heat and drought. 

The 2021 heat wave killed 619 Canadians and dozens of people in the U.S. Pacific Northwest as temperatures climbed into the 110s in many locations. 

We risk a similar disaster this summer, but of course we don't know where yet. 

The summer heat dome could also pretty much park itself over one location for much of the summer, like it did in Mexico this spring. That would cause weeks of record high temperatures, deaths from heat and flash droughts.   

HEAT DOMES, CLIMATE CHANGE AND US 

Heat domes have always been a thing. The intense heat and dust bowl droughts of the 1930s were in large part caused by heat domes. 

Climate change is helping to intensify heat domes, here in North America and in Europe and Asia, where heat waves have killed tens of thousands in recent years. Heat waves are not photogenic like most disasters like hurricanes and tornadoes. But heat is the deadliest type of disaster, so they should be taken more seriously than they are. 

We obviously don't know whether or how much any heat domes will affect us here in Vermont. 

Even in this cool, temperate corner of the world, heat can be dangerous in Vermont. An intense July, 2018 heat wave caused six deaths in Vermont and dozens up in Quebec, for instance. 

Again, because of climate change, I think the all time record high temperature in the Green Mountain State - 105 degrees in Vernon, in July, 1911 - might well be broken within the next decade. I imagine Burlington's all-time high of 101 will be challenged, too.

I'm not saying that will happen this year. I imagine it could, but it's all the roll of the dice. 

Long range forecast call for a hot summer in the United States, with the best chance of persistent heat in the western United States and in New England. 

It's been one of the warmest Mays on record in Vermont. Who knows whether that trend will last through the summer. But I'd bet on at least some brutal heat in the coming months. 

Long Lasting Texas Heat Now Spreading; Violent Storms On Edge Of "Heat Dome" Humidity/Rain Lingers Here

Derecho approaches Charleston, Illinois Thursday in
this web cam grab.

 Aside from the smoke from Canada choking large swaths of the United States, we now have a nasty heat wave and violent storms added to the mix. 

Heat warnings and advisories are scattered from California to Georgia.  

The Midwest is digging out from a violent derecho on Thursday and more nasty storms are on the way. 

And a tease we'll get to near the bottom of the post: We here in Vermont aren't immune from the bad weather over the next few days, but it won't be anything like the South and Midwest. 

Let's get into the heat wave first:

HEAT GROWS

Most of Texas has been broiling under a relentless, long lasting heat wave for about two weeks now.

Mercifully, the heat has avoided most of the rest of the nation.  In many parts of the United States, it's been a relatively cool June. 

That state of affairs is ending. 

The heat is expanding and is now starting to include almost the entire South from California to Georgia. And it's starting to creep north. Heat advisories have gone into effect as far north as Missouri.

Blame what is known as a heat dome. It's an area of high pressure with sinking air that prevents clouds and showers from forming. Heat domes trap hot, and often humid air beneath it, so people who live under one of these domes definitely suffer. 

The heat dome in Texas has been especially long lasting. And brutal. 

The Texas heat has been impressive. Del Rio, Texas had 10 daily record highs in a row, which is absolutely insane.  If you get three record hot days in a row, that's impressive. But 10?  Also, it has not been under 80 degrees in Del Rio since June 15. 

Already, at least 13 deaths have been attributed to the heat in Texas. But that might be an under count. 

In the dystopia that is Texas, prison inmates are dying of heat in prisons that are not air conditioned, but the cause of the deaths is often attributed by state officials as "cardiac arrest," masking the role of heat.

I agree that people who commit crimes must be punished, and prisons should not really be cushy. And what about the prison guards that have to work in those conditions?

But the Texas system is dangerous. As Texas Tribune reports:

"More than two-thirds of Texas' 100 prisons don't have air conditioning in most living areas. Every summer, as temperatures routinely soar well into the triple digits, thousands of offices and tens of thousands of prisoners are cramped inside concrete and steel buildings without ventilation, save windows broken out of desperation and fans that blow hot air. The heat has killed prisoners, likely contributed to severe staff shortages and cost taxpayers millions of dollars wrongful death and civil rights lawsuits over the last decade."

By the way, Texas lawmakers, as usual did not put any money directly toward installing air conditioning in the hot prisons, despite a $32.7 billion budget surplus, Texas Tribune says. 

Over in California, they've had a pretty cool year so far. That's changing now. Much of the Golden State is under excessive heat warnings and advisories. Temperatures are expected to reach the triple digits in the Central Valley.

So much snow fell in the Sierra Nevada mountains this past winter that a lot of it is still there. Melting will become rapid during this heat wave, so creeks and rivers flowing out of the mountains could flood. Plus, people tempted to dip into these creek waters and swimming holes could be endangered by the very cold water flowing in them. 

The good news is the part of the heat dome over Texas is weakening somewhat. It will stay hot there, just not as hot as it's been.

BRUTAL STORMS

A derecho swept across a swath of the Midwest late Wednesday through much of the day Thursday. It started with a supercell with an impressive tornado in the southwest corner of Nebraska late Wednesday, then a streak of big hail and damaging winds overnight in Kansas and Nebraska, followed by a great gush of thunderstorm winds of up to 100 mph roaring through parts of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. 

AccuWeather radar image of the derecho in the Midwest
Thursday. When a line of storms forms a backwards "C"
like this, winds at the front of the C are especially intense.

I'm sure damage totals will be in the hundreds of millions of dollars if not more, given the huge area this storm covered. It also hit populated areas like Springfield, Peoria and Champagne, Illinois and and Indianapolis, Indiana. 

Cities suffered widespread tree damage and downed power lines that in some instances will take days to fix. In the hardest hit towns, where winds reached 100 mph, roofs flew off buildings and houses, grain bins blew away and outbuildings were shattered.

More severe storms are expected today.  This is something called the "ring of fire."  Weather disturbances ride along the northern edges of that so-called heat dome in the South.  These disturbances tap into the extreme heat and high moisture content of the air to create violent storms. 

"Ring of fire" storms are pretty common June through much of August.

Some of the same areas hit yesterday are under the gun today and tomorrow. Not many tornadoes are forecast, but many storms with destructive winds and hail are expected to blossom

UP HERE IN VERMONT

Nothing so dramatic is in the cards for Vermont, but that doesn't mean the weather will be completely benign. 

Today still actually looks fairly nice, despite the wildfire smoke that has prompted a continuation of the air quality alert.  It's still not as bad as last Sunday, but people with health problems, the elderly and very young should try to limit their activity outdoors. 

At least it won't rain for once. But it will still be a bit on the humid side.

The real humidity and the shower threat comes back tomorrow and last through much of the upcoming week. A few showers and thunderstorms might rumble through tomorrow. 

Those showers will be more widespread on Sunday, so once again, we'll have to watch for the chance of a localized instance of flash flooding or two somewhere in the state. If any flooding happens, it won't be widespread, but could cause real trouble in a town or two.

Hit and miss storms will continue through much of the upcoming week amid the persistent humidity. It won't rain all the time, but you might find yourself dodging a downpour or thunderstorm or two during your Fourth of July fun Monday through Wednesday.

There's a chance a cold front could finally diminish the humidity in about a week, but that is an uncertain proposition to say the least. 

It's possible that welcome cold front could fall apart before it ever gets here. Stay tuned. 

 

Very Active Weather Week In Vermont, Drenching Rains, Humidity, Storms, Maybe Severe?

Hot and hazy, but dry in Charlotte, Vermont on Sunday.
An expected dousing of fairly heavy rain today 
should help, but I hope you like a week of high

humidity!

UPDATE: 1:15  PM

Forecasts have gotten a bit more bullish on the possibility of severe storms at least in the southern half of Vermont later today,

Thunderstorms, as expected, have been forming near and south of the warm front that's just coming into southern Vermont.

The air near and south of the warm front has some shear, or winds changing directions with  height. This can cause storms to rotate and strengthen.

Such rotating storms can sometimes even produce brief tornadoes

I've seen several storms this morning that had pretty good rotation on radar in New Jersey, the New York City area and Connecticut

I'm not aware of any tornadoes touching down in that area, but storms have potential.   NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is about to issue a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch for parts of southwest New England, southern New York and parts of the Mid-Atlantic States.

Eventually, these could spread northward. The Storm Prediction Center now says there is a very low, but not zero chance of a brief spinup over southern Vermont later today. A few spots could experience strong, gusty winds too.

This won't be any kind of widespread event, but it's worth keeping an eye to the skies amid the tropical downpours that will move in later. 

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

There's an old song called "Rainy Days And Mondays Always Get Me Down."

It's Monday. And it's going to turn into a rainy day by afternoon.  These two facts are certainly not getting me down, and you should be happy about this fact, too.  Especially since it's probably going to rain pretty hard for most of us. 

As we are well aware, it's gotten dry lately in Vermont. Too dry.  Sunday didn't help, with nearly full sunshine, with some of us reaching 90 degrees or a little better (Burlington had its third 90 degree day so far this summer with a high of 91 degrees) 

So yeah, we need the rain. If current forecasts hold, this batch of rain will really help a lot, even if it doesn't completely solve the dry groundwater problem we developed.  Most places in Vermont can expect one to two inches of rain between this morning and Tuesday morning.  A few favored spots could close in on three inches. 

A warm front will bring the initial batch of pretty steady rain through Vermont heading southwest to northeast later this morning into this afternoon. Then we get into some really soupy air this evening and part of tonight, with light rain mixed with frequent tropical downpours a good bet during that time frame. 

A few thunderstorms will be embedded in this mess of rain.  There could - maybe - be a few isolated strong storms in southern Vermont, but at this point, that doesn't seem like much of a risk. 

Had it been a wet summer, there would be some flooding concerns with this set up.  But it's been dry, so we can handle it. The only issue might be some urban and street flooding in the bigger towns during  the heaviest downpours. Just don't drive through standing water. Also slow down on the highways to avoid hydroplaning.

For the record NOAA's Weather Prediction Center has all of the Northeast, including all of Vermont, in a marginal risk zone for scattered flooding through tonight. If anything does develop it'll be minor. Overall, though, go out and dance in these welcomed downpours! 

This is just the start of an active, oppressively humid week.

BIG PICTURE

As I brought up in a July 9 post, the heat dome that has been torturing the middle of the nation, especially Texas all summer has indeed expanded, as predicted.  

While the middle of the nation continues to be the epicenter of this horrible bake off, it's now hotter than average pretty much coast to coast.  Salt Lake City, Utah, for instance, reached 107 degrees Sunday, tying its all time record for hottest temperature. 

Here in Vermont, we're still on the edge of the heat dome, but it's close.  So what I said back July 9 might happen is indeed happening. It's now easier for squirts of hot, humid air to flow into the Green Mountain State. And since we're now more or less on the edge of the oppressive air, probably at least until the end of the month the chances of storms, some possibly severe, have increased as well. 

WHAT'S IN IT FOR US?

We start right off the bat with the first risk of severe storms Tuesday.  It's a low risk, and probably limited to northern Vermont. 

A National Weather Service map of expected rainfall.
Dark green is at least an inch of rain. Yellow is at least
1.5 inches and orange is 2 inches. Looks like forecasters
in New Hampshire are less bullish on expected rains. 

Little disturbances could be the trigger for these storms Tuesday afternoon, given what will be quite warm and humid air over us. 

However, though it might be humid down here where we live, it'll be refreshing dry way overhead.  That'll limit the number of storms that can form.  But there's a chance that one or two could really get going, with the risk of strong gusty winds and hail.

Storms look pretty unlikely Wednesday as we get into a pool of hot, very humid air.  A "cap" in the atmosphere will probably prevent the updrafts you need to trigger those storms. However, it will likely be as hot as it was Sunday. Worse, it will definitely be quite a bit more humid than it was Sunday. It'll be a good day to hug your air conditioner. 

A new storm will ride the edges of the heat dome and enter our picture Thursday. It's a strong system for this time of year. If the timing is right, in which the cold front approaches Vermont during the heat of the day, we could well be in line for more severe storms.  It's something to watch out for.

Despite the storm's strength, the air behind the cold front won't be cold. Just closer to normal for this time of year.  Beyond that, will probably continue to mostly avoid the worst of the heat, but we'll continue to see a parade of little systems zipping along the edge of the heat dome to give us fairly frequent chances of showers and storms through the end of the month.  

New England Stays Cool For Now, But Some Adjustments Coming

For what it's worth, NOAA's Climate Prediction 
Center brings likely above normal temperatures
to New England around July 16-22 after 
what has been a relatively cool-ish summer so far.

 We've got another cool weekend going, with temperatures this bright Saturday running about 10 degrees cooler than "normal" for this time of year.

It got down to at least 37 degrees this morning in Saranac Lake, New York, and 43 degrees in the Northeast Kingdom hamlet of Gallup Mills. Today's highs will only make it to the low 70s for most of us. Bright sunshine will take any edge off the chill, for those sensitive to cool July weather.  

We'll continue to more or less avoid hot weather, but slow adjustments are coming that might, maybe give us a somewhat hotter, more humid second half of July. 

A persistent "heat dome" of high pressure has kept things hot across most of nation except the Northwest and Northeast, which have been outside this area of high pressure. The heat dome has been sloshing back and forth a little, intensifying the heat for awhile in say, parts of the Rockies and High Plains, then shifting it back again toward the Midwest and South. Rinse and repeat.

Since this hot high pressure in the atmosphere has never made it to the East Coast, we've been left with a mostly coolish flow of air from the northwest as we sit north and east of the hot air core.

This state of affairs will continue, but as I said, subtle changes are coming.  I don't see this dome of hot air establishing itself over us anytime soon.  But there are signs that we will be close enough to that terrible air to change our weather for the second half of the month. A little. 

The usual caveats apply.  Long range forecasts are iffy.  The computer models aren't really in agreement with everything, either. They differ on where the center of the heat will be, the orientation of the flow of air north and east of this heat dome, and how strong that heat will be.

Right now, what I'm giving you isn't much more than a parlor game for weather geeks. But it will still be interesting how this plays out for the second half of July. 

The consensus seems to be that the heat dome in the country's middle will intensify even more as we head into later next week and perhaps the week after. If worst case scenarios come true, there could be some all time record highs set somewhere in the Midwest, and perhaps South. 

I have to wonder with the heat in central North America getting more expansive, could it be easier for us in Vermont to get some squirts of hot, humid air between the parade of cold fronts coming down from Canada?

And if that happens, will there be more showers and possibly severe storms? After all, rough storminess almost always rides along the northern edges of these terrible heat domes. We don't know for sure, as we can't anticipate how clusters of storms will behave much more than two or three days out. 

We do know that after our cool weekend, Monday will turn increasingly warm and humid. Nothing extreme, but you'll feel it, compared to this weekend. Another cold front Tuesday could trigger showers and storms. It's possible, but certainly no slam dunk, that a few storms Tuesday could get strong.  It depends on how winds, clouds and instability develop. We'll get a better handle on this by Monday. 

The northwest flow brings in cooler air for the middle of next week, but with another asterisk. High pressure is also intensifying in the western Atlantic, as it often does this time of year. That tends to slow the cold fronts coming down from Canada and also tries to deflect them away from us a bit. 

Though we won't get much rain, the cold front and trough of low pressure will be slow to leave after Tuesday, leaving us with a risk of showers Wednesday and to a lesser extent Thursday.

The air coming in after Tuesday is on the cool side for this time of year, but as cool as we're getting today. So it will be relatively close to normal next week.

For what it's worth, the American model in particular has us turning warmer and more humid starting about a week from now and then continuing for about a week. It also depicts several batches of showers and storms coming through during that period. 

Overall, the European model doesn't seem to keep us quite as consistently warm and humid in about a week, and continues our familiar northwest flow.  That would keep us cooler and drier, relatively speaking. Both models agree we in New England won't get into the super hot air further to our west. We shall see! 

If it does warm up and get more humid, there's no way to know how long that might last. The persistent "heat dome" over the United States this summer could always drift toward the west again, re-establishing our nice, cool summer regime. 

Intense Heat Sets Up In The South; We In Vermont To Stay Comfortable

Peonies and irises in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens got
another drink of water from overnight thundershowers.
More rain is in the forecast, and hot weather will be
kept out of the region at least through mid-month. 

 A long spell of intense heat is beginning to build in the Southwest and south central parts of the nation, and record highs are beginning to fall.  

Up here in Vermont, a persistent dip in the jet stream will keep protecting us from the heat at least through mid-month. 

Triple digit temperatures extend this week from California to Texas. As the Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang summarizes, Death Valley could easily reach 120 degrees.  It's almost always hot in the Southwest this time of year, but this is up there, even for them.

Las Vegas could see record highs of around 108 or 109 degrees in the coming days. The forecast high for Phoenix on Friday is 113 degrees, which would edge out the record high for the date of 111 degrees.

What makes the heat especially dangerous is the overnight lows, or more accurately the lack thereof. Temperatures will stay above 80 degrees across this region at night. Most people have air conditioning, but a few do not. And some people are homeless. 

The lack of any nighttime breaks from the heat can cause heat related illnesses and deaths. 

The "heat dome" looks like it will eventually shift a bit eastward out of the Desert Southwest and then park itself over the southern Plains for an extended stay. 

That means the Southwest will go from record hot to just hot. But the southern Plains will bake day in and day out in near record heat. Recently, drought conditions in the southern Plains were beginning to get better because of frequent, heavy storms over the past couple of weeks.

But this heat dome will shut off the water in this region and once again, they'll dry out. The heat will probably spread into the Southeast as well, raising the prospect of triple digit temperatures from California to the Carolinas. 

The position of this "heat dome" which is basically just a broad, hot area of high pressure, will keep Vermont out of the heat. 

The jet stream, which generally drives weather systems, will head northeastward in the Rockies and up toward Canada, up and over the central U.S. heat dome, then head southeastward into the Great Lakes and Northeast.

That'll block the hot air in the middle of the nation from reaching us. Repeated cold fronts in that northwest flow over us will keep our temperatures more or less near normal at least into the third week of June.

There will be a few cool days and a few warm, humid-ish ones in there, but I'm not seeing anything extreme. 

With the flow from the northwest, it will be hard for any tropical air to make its way toward us, so these repeated cold fronts mostly won't have huge amounts of rain with them. But we'll have chances of rain pretty much every other day if this pattern holds, keep precipitation near normal.

In the short term, tomorrow looks like the wettest and chilliest day for the foreseeable future as a nor'easter of sorts passes through New England. A June version of a nor'easter is a weaker system than what you see in the winter.  So it'll just be rainy and damp.

After that, we fall into that pattern of average weather. 

One caveat: On the periphery of these heat domes something known as a "ring of fire" sets up.  That ring of fire is frequent, sometimes severe storms on the northwestern, northern and northeastern edges of the heat dome. 

During this spell of weather, it's possible that a cold front could time itself correctly, and have the correct atmospherics, to give us a threat of severe thunderstorms.

So far, there's nothing to suggest we'll see anything like that at least through early next week, and likel beyond.