Forecasters Back Off SLIGHTLY From Torrid Vermont Upcoming Week Forecast, But It Will Still Be Hot

Early Sunday afternoon satellite pic shows Vermont
in the middle of a big cloudy patch that will
keep the rest of today cloudy and damp. But
looks at those clear skies to the northwest\
in Ontario and central Quebec. That's our
weather tomorrow and Tuesday. 

Just landed after my return trip from Minnesota, so you saw no morning post today. So I'll try a very late, afternoon attempt. 

As expected, a few scattered strong to severe storms erupted in Vermont yesterday. The worst of them seem to cross central Vermont in a west to east band very roughly about  20 or 30 miles north of Route 4. 

I'm kinda sure there was some tree damage across the middle of Vermont, but the only report of damage I see so far is the several trees fell along Route 73 between Whiting and Sudbury. 

As you'd expect, rainfall was super variable with the scattering of storms yesterday. Many places, as expected got somewhere in the neighborhood of a half inch of rain.

 But there were those torrential downpours, as you'd expect. The biggest totals I saw were  near the Canadian border: 1.85 inches in Montgomery Center, 1.58 inches at Derby Line and 1.54 inches 

Meanwhile, a few towns got seriously cheated. West Windsor reported just 0.05 inches of rain. 

During this morning and early afternoon, a final band of rain was working north to south across Vermont, As you can tell, it's pretty cool today under the clouds and showers and north winds, with most places holding in the 60s as of early afternoon. 

Except for nights and very early mornings at the beginning of the week, this will be last cool weather you'll see for awhile. 

REST OF THE WEEK

Judging from the satellite photos, we won't get much clearing today. Maybe some places will get some sun in the evening. Since it's cool this afternoon, we're set up for a comfortable night.  Lows Monday morning will be in the 40s, with some low 50s in banana belt towns in the Champlain Valley. 

Monday: A beauty. Sunshine, low humidity and highs in the 70s to around 80.

Tuesday: Another nice one. Warmer, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Maybe a couple upper 80s in the warmest valleys. The humidity will stay low.

Wednesday: Here's where trouble starts. Humidity levels will creep up. Forecasters have backed off on the idea of three or four consecutive days near 90 degrees in the warmer valleys. Instead, we'll probably wait for a couple of days for a shot at 90. 

A weather disturbance that was expected to be a nothing burger a few days ago will now have a little oomph when it arrives here. Nothing dramatic, just some showers and maybe some embedded thunder. Highs should still make it into the 80s as it turns noticeably more humid.

Thursday/Friday: These will be the hot days, at least if the forecast holds. It is subject to change. As it is, we might seem some showers and storms both days as highs potentially reach a humid 90 degrees.

Next Weekend.  Frankly, not sure yet. Depends upon whether some cold fronts arrive to rescue us from the humidity or not. Cold fronts would also mean a potential shower risk. But don't make plans based on the weather for next weekend. We really have almost no idea what will happen then

A Cool, Wet Spring In Vermont Kept Gardens Blooming, Frustrated Warm Weather Fans. With Some Exceptions

The cool, wet character of May, 2026 made it a great daffodil
growing month. This photo was taken May 10 in St. 
Albans, Vermont.

I didn't finish our May Vermont climate summary yesterday, so my bad. 

The weather forecast this week is straight forward enough. Sunny with a warming trend through the week, with perhaps some showers late in the week. Summer weather is here .

So let's 'get into what we Vermonters went through during the month of May

 The month of May in Vermont that just ended was definitely on the cool side, and in most places, wet, too.

We didn't break any records with temperatures or precipitation, but it was cooler, cloudier and more damp that we've gotten used to in recent Mays.

COOL MAY

In Burlington, the average temperature was 57.1 degrees, or 1.3 degrees below what is now considered average. As I always mention, average isn't what it used to be.  Nowadays, we compare months to the average of a recent 30 year period. Months in the 20th century were cooler than they are now. 

You can see that in the stats. Out of the past 135 years, this May was the 82 coolest, or 53rd warmest. So by historical standards, May was a little on the warm side.  

Most weather stations in Vermont were about the same degree cooler than the modern average as Burlington. Rutland, Montpelier and St. Johnsbury were all around one to two degrees on the cool side. Bennington was 2.3 degrees below normal. 

Nineteen days in Burlington were cooler than  normal, but the cold was never extreme. All of the cool days were less than 10 degrees below normal. The month's chill was offset by a brief heat wave that set temperatures soaring to near record heights on May 18-19. The low temperature in Burlington on the 19th was a muggy 71 degrees, a record for the date.

WET MAY

It was a wet month, with rainfall pretty well distributed throughout the month. We never came close to dealing with any flooding issues.  

Burlington had 4.88 inches of rain, which was a little over an inch above normal. It was the 22nd wettest May out of the past 143 years. (The wettest May was in 2013, with 8.74 inches.)

Most other places in Vermont, with the exception of the far south, had a wetter than average May, too. Montpelier had nearly six inches of rain, which was 2.39 inches above average. St. Johnsbury was given a boost by a super soaker of a rainstorm on the 30th. Their month total worked out to 6.46 inches, which was 2.7 inches above average.

Far southern Vermont was drier. Bennington had 2.56 inches of rain, nearly an inch on the dry side.

LOOKING AHEAD

For what it's worth, NOAA's monthly outlook says odds lean fairly heavily toward a warmer than normal June. There's also a somewhat greater than even chance of a dry June, according to NOAA's predictions.

That matches the forecast for the opening week of June, anyway, which will be warm and dry. 

NOAA got May's prediction basicalliy right. They said the month's temperatures would be near to somewhat below normal, and that's true. They also said there were equal chances of above or below normal precipitation. Since most of the state was wet but the south was dry, I'll give it to them.

 

Not All That Much Rain Fell In Vermont Yesterday, More Coming, Eventually

It's the peak of daffodil season around my St. Albans,
Vermont property right now. These daffodils were
soaking up this morning's sun. 

The rain we really needed yesterday was kind of a disappointment. It hadn't rained in eight days, so we really needed a soaker. 

It did rain, and the fire danger we dealt with for a week is pretty much gone for now. But it wasn't the deep drenching we'd hoped for, and had forecasted days earlier. A few days ago, it looked like we'd get 0.75 to an inch of rain. 

Instead, it was much less. Most of northern Vermont got about a quarter inch, with Burlington coming in with a measly 0.16 inches. Southern Vermont got a little less than a half inch.  Places to our west in northern New York and to our east in places like Maine got a good inch of rain. 

More rain is coming. Not much at first. But some signs point to some more soaking rains later in the week.  Maybe. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY

A nice one, really. Skies should at least be partly sunny, and highs should reach the 50s in most places across Vermont. That's a little cooler than average for this time of year, but that's still not bad, right? There could be some upper 40s in higher elevations and some spots way up in the Northeast Kingdom.  It could touch 60 in warmer southern valleys.  

SATURDAY

Unfortunately, Saturday probably won't be as pleasant as we thought yesterday. We hoped for at least partly sunny skies with almost no showers. 

But a disturbance coming through should make us mostly cloudy and showers are pretty likely. Those showers should all be light, with most places getting less than a tenth of an inch of rain.  A few places might even manage to stay pretty dry. Hard to say what part of the day will have the most showers, so just be prepared. 

You'll get some stuff done outdoors between the raindrops, I imagine. There will be breaks of sun, especially in the broader valleys and in southern Vermont away from the Green Mountains. It'll also stay chilly for the season, with afternoon temperatures generally in the low to mid 50s.

The verdict: A mediocre spring day.

SUNDAY

Pretty similar to Saturday, except there's hope most of the showers will come in the morning. No guarantees, but fingers crossed!

NEXT WEEK

It looks like it'll warm up early next week. That ever-present chance of showers will keep on going, but temperatures should bounce back into the 60s. It could flirt with 70 on Tuesday in the warmer valleys. 

It looks like a cold front might stall somewhere in the Northeast during the middle and end of next week If it stalls near Vermont, we'll get some heavy, soaking rain. If it stalls to our west or our east, not so much. We'll just have to wait and see how that works out. 

Wednesday Morning Vermont Update: Drops Of Rain, But Little Drought Relief

A few sprinkles helped enhance the colors in the sky
over St. Albans, Vermont Tuesday evening. The 
showers only produced a trace of rain here. 

Tantalizing drops of rain have fallen here and there in Vermont over the past 24 hours, slightly wetting the ground in a few spots, but still doing almost nothing to relieve drought conditions.  

A very brief downpour blew through the Burlington area last evening, depositing 0.16 inches of rain. But that left Burlington easily among the wettest spot in Vermont Tuesday, which really isn't saying much. 

A little more rain is in the forecast which will keep the worsening drought slightly at bay, but there's still not much of a prospect of any super soaking rains soon.

A semi-decent area of showers was over parts of Addison and northwest Rutland counties as of 8 a.m. today. A few spot showers will continue today, especially in the southern half of Vermont, where a few lucky towns could get a little over a tenth of an inch of rain, while others say dry. Hit and miss again. 

Today should  be about as autumnal as yesterday, with highs within a few degrees either side of 70.

SLIGHTLY WET COLD FRONT

The cold front we've been talking about for the end of the week looks like it will graciously dampen Vermont a little, which is nice.  But once again, it will be a bit of a swing and a miss for heavier rains.

The last cold front this past Sunday and Monday was supposed to slow down and create extra rain over Vermont. Instead, most of that extra rain fell in northern New York and extreme northwest Vermont.

It looks like a somewhat similar rainfall pattern will strike again, with some key differences.  

The latest rain forecast from the National Weather 
Service. Only a quarter inch of rain is expected through
early Saturday in most places. 

It'll start off cool again tomorrow with dawn temperatures in the 40s for many of us. Some southwest breezes in the afternoon will bring temperatures into the mid-70s, which is just a smidge below normal,

Increasing clouds will promise rain but there's a catch. The approaching cold front will start out with great dynamics, dropping decent rains Thursday night in northern New York despite a "meh" moisture supply. 

Over in the St. Lawrence Valley, they could see a good 0.5 to 0,75 inches of rain Thursday night and Friday. 

As the front gets into Vermont Friday, it will start to weaken.  It will have enough oomph left to drop some rain, especially north, and that might even be a rumble or two of thunder. 

Expected rainfall amounts are subject to change, and the forecast could change a lot by the time we get to the event. 

But at this point it looks like rainfall with the actually front will only amount to a quarter inch, give or take. It'll be a little more to the northwest, where the northern Champlain Valley could see more than a third an inch with the front by Friday afternoon. The south and east loses again, with maybe a 0.1 to 0.2 inches.

After the cold front goes through, a chilly pool of air aloft - an upper level low - will probably basically sit and spin somewhere near the Vermont/Quebec border Friday night through Saturday night. 

That will keep light showers going over much of Vermont. They should be just inconsequential sprinkles in southern valleys, if that. More frequent light showers should hit central Vermont and the valleys of northern Vermont Friday night and Saturday, but they won't amount to all that much. 

The western slopes and ridgelines of the central and northern Green Mountains could get a decent dampening with this regime through Saturday. Those high elevation places could see a quarter inch of rain. 

Expect continued pre-fall weather Friday and Saturday as highs stay in the 60s, except lower 70s in warmer, sunnier southern valleys. 

BEYOND SATURDAY.

The dry times return after Saturday. There might be a few lingering sprinkles in the north and mountains Sunday. But that will be it for several days, as it looks now. Dry high pressure looks like it will stall nearby later Sunday through at least next Thursday morning. 

That'll bring low humidity, sunshine and somewhat of a warming trend, all bad news because that week of weather would dry out whatever meager rains we see through Saturday.  

After Being Mostly Cheated On Monday Rain, Vermont Faces Autumnal Week In One Of Its Driest Augusts On Record

Last evening had a bit of an autumnal look and feel
to it here in St. Albans, Vermont, and this week
will definitely be pre-autumn in Vermont. But
rain faltered Monday, and not much is in the 
forecast. This will likely be one of the driest
Augusts on record in the Green Mountain State., 

As always with summer rains, there were winners and losers with showers on Monday.

Things usually even out, but with our Vermont drought deepening, the stakes are much higher now. Yesterday's misses make the situation for many much more dire for many of us. 

It turns out a small area around where I live in northwest Vermont was the big winner. 

The more than three quarters of an inch of rain that fell around St. Albans and Georgia early Monday was more than anyone else in the Green Mountain State received by a pretty large margin. 

A patch of showers that passed through early this morning slightly added to the wet bonus in the Champlain Valley. 

My place in St. Albans received another 0.1 inches of rain early this morning, for a three day total of 0.95.   That's better than almost all the rest of Vermont. 

So I'm damn lucky. And gloating,

Elsewhere,  most places received a third of an inch of rain or less. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon provided a bit of additional help in a handful of places, but most of us stayed dry.   

August now stands an excellent chance of becoming one of Vermont's top 10 driest Augusts. In some towns, it might well be the driest August on record. 

So far this month, Montpelier has only had 0.31 inches of rain. They should have receive about 3..2 inches by now.. St. Johnsbury has logged only a half inch of rain so far in August. By now 3.3 inches should  have accumulated this month.  

If no more rain falls in Burlington this month, it'll be the second driest August on record with just 0.93 inches. (The driest August was in 1957 with just 0.72 inches.) The tenth driest August in Burlington was 1.49 inches in 1894, so we should make the list.  

It would take a big surprise this coming weekend for this August to become one of the ten driest. 

RAIN PROSPECTS

We do have a remote, outside chance of a decent rain this weekend, but I'm to holding my breath. Still, it seems increasingly likely that at least some parts of Vermont will get a little bit of rain Thursday night and Friday. And maybe continuing a bit on Saturday. really doubting it. 

We're in what I would guess pre-autumn now, and weather conditions will be classic September. 

Last evening, I really did feel start to feel the cool autumnal aspect of autumn, even if in reality it really wasn't all that cool. Just seasonable, but it's been mostly a hot summer until now. 

For the rest of the week, we'll have a pretty typical regime for autumn or even winter. A northwest flow with embedded weak disturbances will continue today and tomorrow. 

That means cool air and party cloudy skies with a risk of a few light showers, mostly in the mountains. It'll be sunniest in the southeast with virtually no chance of showers down there. Which is bad, because that part of the state really missed out on the rain Sunday and Monday. 

Today's showers won't amount to much, so in general, we'll either start drying out, or continue drying out. The drought lives on.  

On Thursday night a stronger cold front will approach. It also looks like an upper level storm will want to get going overhead or nearby, with a small corresponding small storm down where we live.

The front itself will have some oomph to it. So we might briefly get some moderate intensity showers and maybe a little rumble of thunder with it toward Friday. 

The upper level low will have a pocket of pretty chilly air with it, so highs Friday and Saturday probably won't get out of the 60s. Or even 50s in some colder, higher northern spots. Burlington on Friday will probably have its first sub-70 high temperature since June 13. 

Showers, mostly along the west slopes of the northern Green Mountains should continue into Saturday. That's a very typical winter pattern. At least it's going to be rain, not snow, right?  

Some - but not all - forecasts have the chilly upper level low lingering through the Labor Day weekend, If that chill remains, it won't be much of a farewell to summer. Too cold for the beach, and possibly too showery to enjoy hiking to the mountain summits. 

The late week storm and cold front are coming in from the north, so it won't be able to scoop up a lot of humid air from the south. So even though the front and storm might have a lot of energy, it probably won't be able to generate a huge amount of rain. 

But, as I keep saying, we'll take anything. We'll have a better idea of how much rain as we draw closer to the event. 

Longer range forecasts have high pressure stalling over us starting around Monday and continuing much of the following week. That will keep us dry with a bit of a warming trend. 

After this thing we're getting at the start of Labor Day weekend, the next chance of decent rains wouldn't come along until around September 5 or 6, as it looks now.  

Remarkable Vermont Temperature Crash On Friday, But It Won't Last

Some interesting patterns in an otherwise dull gray
overcast in St. Albans, Vermont late Friday afternoon,
Friday was much cooler than the most of the rest of
our sticky, steamy July was. 

Well, Friday was a change, that's for sure.  

Unlike most of Vermont's July, which featured a lot of warmth and humidity, it got downright chilly.  Especially under the rain clouds in southern Vermont. Not that I'm complaining. 

Looking at the receipts, the change in the weather was striking. Especially for summer, when there's usually not a lot of variability in temperatures. 

Springfield, Vermont really has had a southern flavored summer so far, enduring 15 days so far this year of 90 degrees or more,. 

On Thursday. it was 90 degrees at 4 p.m. in Springfield.  Exactly 24 hours hours later, at 4 p.m. Friday, it was 62 degrees. That 28-degree drop must have been a shock to the system.

Over in Bennington, it was only 61 degrees at 4 p.m. In Vermont this time of year, it should be at least 80 degrees at that hour. 

As expected, the heavier rain Friday was confined to far southern Vermont. Bennington picked up 1.19 inches, and Woodford State Park had an inch.

Once you got about 20 miles north of Route 9, precipitation was much lighter. Townsend and Springfield only had a quarter inch of rain. Rutland had only 0.02 inches. North of that, just sprinkles. 

Away from Vermont, also as expected, there was flash flooding in the Mid-Atlantic states. Like there's been a zillion times this summer, it seems. 

Back here in the Green Mountain state, skies cleared even faster than expected Friday evening, so temperatures were able to get pretty cool by this morning, especially along and north of Route 4, where it was clear the longest. Most of northern and central Vermont was down in the 40s. 

The perennial cold spot Saranac Lake, New York was down to 37 degrees. Burlington was at 51 degrees at 6 a.m. today, the coldest temperature there since June 3.

COOL AT FIRST  

The peak of summer is over, and temperatures Friday and this morning seem to prove it. But summer is not done with us, at all.  We have a lot of warm air to get to. Eventually. 

The dreariness we saw Friday is gone. It's back to bright sunshine, which will boost afternoon readings back up into the 70s.  That's still a little cool for this time of year, but not be that much. A few puffy clouds will grace our  blue skies. today, so it's be pretty out there.  We'll only have a  faint hint of that persistent wildfire smoke from Canada.

Dawn Saturday will be just as chilly as this morning. Clear skies, light winds and dry air will ensure that. But another sunny day Saturday will bring temperatures well into the 70s to near 80. The wildfire smoke might be a little more noticeable than today, but not so thick as to be a major health hazard. 

Saturday night will be another cool, comfortable night.

THE WARMUP

This cool spell will be short-lived, much shorter than forecasts from about a week ago indicated. This is one persistent summer.

By Sunday, we'll be back in the 80s as that cool, big high pressure moves off to our east a little. Every day next week will be in the 80s for most of us. There could even be a 90 degree reading in hot spots like Springfield. 

Usually, in the summer, once big high pressure passes to the east, both temperatures and humidity surges

This time the temperature will definitely go up, but the humidity will stay pretty reasonable. Dew points near 50 today and tomorrow will rise to near 60 or starting Sunday and stay that way going through at least Wednesday. That's vaguely humid if you're sensitive to it, but it's nowhere near oppressive and awful.

The humidity won't go up much because the strong high pressure that's causing this long period of sunshine and dry weather will stay near Quebec and New England. It won't have a good connection to the tropical Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico. 

Forest Fires

The long stretch of mostly sunny, dry weather, with minimal chances of showers, means we'll have to watch for forest fire hazards. We already had a forest fire in Fair Haven last week that covered at least 12 acres. The was a small brush fire in Alburgh a couple days ago. 

I have a feeling that some errant camp fires or backyard burns or flicked cigarettes could touch off a few more fires in and around Vermont this week. It won't be anything cataclysmic like what's going on in Canada, but we still don't need to add to the problem. 

There are signs we could see a period of hot, and notably more humid air toward the end of next week. That's a long way off and things could still change. 

But it'll be awhile before we see the cool, brisk and crisp breezes of autumn. 

It won't be  until later next week that the humidity will be able to surge in.

Arguably Worst Vermont Smoke Attack Yet, And Sunday Rains Not Behaving As Expected

Smoke obscuring Lake Champlain Saturday, as
seen at St. Albans Bay, Vermont. 

Cough, cough.

Boy, yesterday was rough in Vermont. Sure, it was a nice day, except for the thick clouds of smoke and haze we endured. 

Unexpectedly, Saturday probably brought Vermont the most polluted air of the year, thanks to wildfire smoke from Canada. 

We knew days in advance there would be smoke in the air, but most forecasters expected the bulk of it to remain aloft, with just some relatively minor dents to our air quality down here on the ground. 

Instead, a zone of sinking air pushed the smoke to the ground in a band from southern Quebec down through western New England and extreme eastern New York. The result was some of the worst air I've ever seen, even worse than what we saw in 2023. 

Montreal Saturday morning became the most polluted city in the world, 

The air quality index fell to near 200 in some places across northern Vermont. The air endangered people with pre-existing health issues, and was generally bad for everyone. The air improved somewhat toward Saturday evening, but was still pretty bad. 

Like it or not, we all smoked at least a couple cigarettes Saturday. 

The air quality alert in northern and central Vermont has expired, at least for now.  Far southern Vermont remains under an air quality alert, though. Still, the air isn't great. As of this morning, the air quality index was somewhere in the 115 to 125 range, which is considered unhealthy for sensitive groups. 

Smoke forecasts look better later today as the air cleans up a little more, but not completely. That's temporary.  It looks like another batch of smoke might come down from the north tomorrow, so it's not over.   

Since we're going to have repeated batches of northwest winds from Canada through the upcoming week, and since there's still a lot of large fires burning in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, we can expect more smoky, unhealthy air to blow through probably until at least next weekend. 

TODAY

 This is turning into a long post, as things are actually pretty busy in the weather department.

As expected, a lot of us in Vermont woke up to a rainy early Sunday morning. But the rain wasn't working out quite as predicted, especially in the north. 

It was suppose to barely rain in far northern Vermont, so why did I wake up to a torrential downpour before 7 a.m, in St. Albans?

 I'm not blaming the National Weather Service or anybody else. The subtlest shifts in the atmosphere can radially change things at the last moment.  

The result was a split into two rainy areas. Southern Vermont saw steady, sometimes briefly heavy rain, Sunday morning rains, just as predicted. In fact, forecasters were carefully watching central and eastern New York and perhaps into Bennington County in Vermont for the risk of rains torrential enough to cause flash flooding.

As of 9 a.m. there was no trouble, at least in Vermont. Any flood threat in these areas should end by late morning or early afternoon. 

But another batch of occasionally heavy rain set up in far northern Vermont. So places like St. Albans, Jay Peak and Newport that were expected perhaps a tenth of an inch of rain at most got much, much more than that. 

It looks like a push of humid air acted like a snow plow, causing a narrow band of rising air that formed into a line of downpours that found its way to the Canadian border.

Central Vermont mostly missed out, at least through 9 a.m. Some rain did fall in Burlington, making this the 32nd weekend in a row with at least some rain. We broke the record for most such consecutive weekends last Sunday, and this solidified the record even more,.

Still, central Vermont is getting a bit on the dry side, so it's too bad they missed out, especially since it appears not much rain is in the forecast for the next week. 

REST OF TODAY

After the morning weather disturbance with its locally heavy rain move out, we'll be left with a return to very humid conditions.

That means cloudy skies will give way to some sun, and temperatures should get into the low 80s. The humidity and subtle left over disturbances in the atmosphere could touch off some widely scattered thunderstorms. Most places won't see a storm this afternoon and evening, but some of us will.

I don't see anything severe, just local downpours here and there and some lightning. There might be a bit of an uptick in scattered storms this evening as a weak wind shift line come through. 

GOING FORWARD

The forecast we've been touting hasn't changed much for the upcoming week, other than a few tweaks.

Monday and Tuesday now both look quite warm, with highs in the 80s to maybe near 90 both days in a couple spots. 

Some thunderstorms might develop Tuesday as the first of a series of cold fronts come in.  Wednesday should be slightly cooler, but another cold front could set off more thunderstorms. It's too soon to determine how many and how strong they might be.

Then, after that, we have that cool spell we've been talking about. It doesn't look like it will be quite as chilly or as long lasting as first thought. Only one day - Friday - will be much cooler than normal. It now looks like the coldest air will stay up in Quebec. 

But otherwise, Thursday through Sunday look bright, dry, sunny, mild and refreshing. Then it will warm up again. Don't know how much yet. 

 

cold snap\

While some guidance continues to show lingering rain behind yet
another boundary on Thursday, our region will largely be high
and dry Thursday through Sunday as an expansive ridge of high
pressure slowly migrates eastward. Only Friday looks to be
anomalously cool, per NAEFS mean and EFI climatological tools, with
temperatures probably resembling what we saw this past Monday.
Generally the much cooler air mass that was on the table is
looking more likely to bypass us to the northeast, but for those
who desire warm, but not hot, days with low humidity should
have a nice weekend in store. As noted by the previous
forecaster, we`ll still need to monitor potential for wildfire
smoke to be advected in from the north, as it may be present
not far away later this week in northern Ontario.

Autumn In July For Vermont, For A Couple Days, Anyway

Part of my perennial garden in St. Albans, Vermont
enjoys a little evening sun after a bit of rain 
earlier in the day, The gardens will now cool off
a bit in a mid-summer break from the heat and humidity,

Autumn is here! Well, kinda, sorta, for a day or two.

Yesterday's storm system is long gone, having caused few problems locally. A band of strong storms did pass through southern Vermont and points south.  The only trouble from those I've seen so far in Vermont is in Saxtons River, where a tree fell on a house on Sunday. 

There were numerous reports of tree and wire damage, and some structural damage in the New York Capitol District, and in what you might want to call Rhodachusecut, basically southern New England.

A series of reinforcing cold fronts came through the last night, and the cool weather is here. 

This means for the next two or three days we in the Green Mountain State face something we basically haven't seen all summer: No heat, no humidity, no severe storm threat, no flash flooding, heck, no rain! It even looks like we'll have a reprieve from that wildfire smoke for a few days. 

Let's get into the details:

TODAY/TONIGHT

A classic September day is on tap. Which is interesting, since right around July 21 is on average the hottest part of the summer. 

A few lingering showers early this morning should depart.  I said no rain above, but you do need an exception in everything. There could also be a sprinkle or two over the mountains today. 

In the broader valleys and in southeast Vermont, we'll call today partly sunny. Some clouds will be around, but I imagine the sun will be out half the time, or almost that.  I think the mountains and the Northeast, Kingdom will stay on the cloudy side, but even those places will have breaks of sun. 

Highs today should only get into the low 70s in the Champlain Valley and 60s across the rest of northern and central Vermont. The warmest parts of southern Vermont could reach the mid-70s. All this is pretty average for mid-September. 

It'll be downright chilly for many of us tonight, but look at it as a very comfortable sleeping night. Most of Vermont will be in the 40s by dawn Tuesday. We might even seen a 38 or 39 in the coldest hollows of the Northeast Kingdom. There might be some low 50s near Lake Champlain.  

Although all this is all pretty nippy compared to the weather we've had in most recent summers, historically, this cool spell is a yawner. In the 20th century and before, this kind of comfortable spell in a Vermont summer was routine, and it very often use to get much colder than this in July, 

It has been as cold as 39 degrees in Burlington in July and 29 degrees in West Burke (back in 1962),  Frost would hit the cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom every once in awhile.  Climate change has now turned a routine July cool spell into something that now feels kind of exceptional, 

REST OF WEEK

Tuesday stays bright, sunny and cool for the season with highs in the 70s.  Tuesday night looks on the cool side, too, but not as chilly as tonight. The return to summer begins Wednesday, as we should be back in the 80s. 

By Thursday, it's back to the the heat and humidity, as it could reach 90 again. After that, the "heat dome" we keep talking about will center itself right in the middle of the U.S.  The heat will get nasty in most of the nation except the West Coast and maybe here in New England, 

Here in Vermont, it's going to be iffy. It seems like the door will be open for a series of weak cold fronts from the northwest starting the end of this week and going into August. But squirts of hot, humid air could also make it in between the fronts. And unlike the current cool spell, the air after each upcoming cold front won't be all that cold.

So, the consensus is for temperatures near or slightly above normal heading into early August, with near to perhaps slightly above normal precipitation. 

But that's just the broad brush. The devil is in the details, which we simply don't have. I almost guarantee some sort of surprise or two in that general weather pattern, but there's no telling what that might be. So we'll stay on our toes.

Coolish Stretch Of June Weather In Vermont/New England Will End Soon

Vermont had weather winners and losers once again
on Saturday. In this satellite photo taken in the
early afternoon, it was clear near the Canadian border
while the rest of northern Vermont had a mix of
sun and puffy clouds, But southern Vermont was
socked in by the clouds once again, as so often
has been the case lately on Saturdays.

 In recent years, we've had some awful spells of rather intense early season heat and humidity in May and the first half of June in Vermont. 

Summers have been starting earlier than they used to, in large part due to climate change.   

This year so far has been more temperate. It did make it to 90 degrees in Burlington, Vermont on June 5, but spells of very warm, humid weather have been brief.

That might be about to change. Warm, very humid air looks like it will flow into northern New England by mid-week. 

After that, there might be a brief cooldown or two, but the overall weather pattern is trending toward warmer, more summery conditions.

THIS WEEKEND

It was a tale of two Vermonts again on Saturday. After some early morning sprinkles, it was gorgeous across northern parts of the state yesterday. We had sunshine, deep blue skies finally free of the smoky haze, a few puffy clouds to decorate the skies and comfortable temperatures in the low 70s.

Meanwhile, southern Vermont was socked in with the clouds most of the day.

Today will be a little more fair to everyone. It'll be partly sunny almost statewide  -- the clouds will sort of be in and out all day -  and there's the slightest chance of a brief shower. But the vast majority of us will stay dry.

An exception would be far southern Vermont, near the Massachusetts border, They're closer to a stalled weather front that's been stuck in the Mid-Atlantic States for days. So clouds will probably dominate out of today in place like Bennington and Brattleboro.

Then changes are afoot

THIS WEEK AND BEYOND

You'll notice the humidity rising day by day early this week from pretty low levels today to really sticky by Wednesday and Thursday.

The dew point is a good indicator of how icky it feels out there. Today, those dew points will be in the 50s, which is comfortable. On Monday, they'll edge closer to 60.  That's still OK, but you'll notice it a little if you're really exerting yourself outdoors. 

Tuesday's dew points will be in the low 60s, which is a little sticky, then in the upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. There's your ick factor right there. 

Actual daily temperatures will climb, too, from the lows 70s today, upper 70s Monday, near 80 Tuesday and in the 80s Wednesday and Thursday. 

When you combine such warmth and humidity, you often get showers and thunderstorms. At this point, those seem a safe bet Wednesday and Thursday. It's a little too soon to tell, however, if any of those storms would get on the strong side. It's also a little early to figure out if any of those storms will dump a bit too much rain. 

Those details will be ironed in the coming days. 

Forecasts beyond this coming Thursday are a little more questionable, only because a lot can change in the atmosphere over four or five days. Those changes sometimes throw longer range forecasts way off.

But an early guess suggests a brief cooldown coming next weekend (down to near normal mid and upper 70s).  Then, some computer models bring in an even hotter few days right after next weekend. We could have a spell of 90 degree weather in a little over a week from now.

Summer seems to be here, folks.  

Forecasters Change Their Tune: Maybe A Decent Vermont Weather Weekend For Once?

High clouds coming from the south Friday morning
battle dry air coming from the north over St. Albans,
Vermont. Also notice there's much less wildfire haze
in the sky. It looks like the dry air will mostly but
not completely win this weekend, giving Vermont
the rare treat of a decent if not perfect weather weekend.

Could it be?

Meteorologists have backed way off on the gloomy, damp projections they had for this Saturday and their accompanying "meh" forecast for Sunday.  

Not they're calling for something that is now rare in Vermont. A fairly decent weather weekend. 

It won't be perfect, mind you. A little rain could easily show up on Saturday, at least in parts of the state will be rather cloudy on Saturday. And skies won't necessarily be crystal clear on Sunday.

Plus, it'll be noticeably on the cool side for mid-June.  So it won't be a spectacular beach weekend. But a comfortable one for other outdoor activities, which is nice. 

On top of that, you'll be able to breathe some relatively fresh air for a change. The wildfire smoke that's been giving us lots of haze and bad visibility and rather unhealthy air to breathe will be greatly diminished. If not almost gone entirely. 

The streak of 25 consecutive weekends with precipitation, at least in Burlington, might actually end Saturday and Sunday.

There is a 50/50 shot at some light rain Saturday morning in the Champlain Valley, which would keep the streak going.  

THE DETAILS:

Just as meteorologists have been saying for days now, a west-to-east, nearly stalled weather front should drape itself from the Midwest to the somewhere around the mid-Atlantic States this weekend. 

At first, it was thought moisture streaming up and over that front would give us a chilly, rainy Saturday. But that moisture, at least up here in Vermont, appears as if it will be sputtering. And that moisture will be battling dry air that will insist on coming south from Quebec over the weekend. 

The result will only be some light showers. And most of those light showers would come through tonight and the first half of Saturday.  

As has been the case recently, the weather up north will be better than conditions in southern Vermont. 

Whatever rain falls should be light everywhere. But it would range from maybe just a few raindrops up by the Canadian border to perhaps as much as 0.2 inches down around Bennington and Brattleboro.

The showers should tend to dry up everywhere in Vermont Saturday afternoon, but more so in the north. Clouds will linger south, but some sun should break through north. Which means it will actually be a bit warmer the further north you go.

Parts of southern Vermont should only make it into the low 60s for highs. Low elevations north of Route 2 could reach the low 70s.  Normal highs this time of year are in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday

Sunday should have some sun, some clouds, and reach the low 70s, so again, not bad! There is a low chance of a scattered light shower here and there, but most of us will stay dry. 

Looking ahead to next week, it looks like day by day it will slowly turn warmer and more humid. Every day holds a chance of showers, but skies should be rain-free most of the time.  We'll have to keep a careful eye Wednesday and Thursday.

By then, it will be quite warm and quite humid, which could set the stage for some risk of hefty thunderstorms Wednesday and especially Thursday. We don't know whether that will happen just yet. That would depend upon the timing of weak weather fronts, sunshine and wind direction through the atmosphere around Thursday. 

But at the very least, expect to give your air conditioner a bit of a workout toward the middle and end of next week. 

 

Monday Morning Vermont Weather Update: Wintry, Then Blah

Traffic camera image from around 7 a.m to day shows
snow falling along Route 7 in Shaftsbury. Far southern
Vermont had some light accumulations this morning
with more snow on the way pretty much 
statewide on Tuesday. 

We shouldn't be surprised to see snow in the Vermont forecast in the first half of April, but those of us pining for spring are always a little disappointed. 

Prepare for just a bit of disappointment. 

It was already snowing lightly in far southern Vermont this morning, as a weak wave of low pressure scoots by to our south. 

It looks like a dusting of snow made it as far north as about Mount Holly. Traffic cameras show up to an inch of new snow near and along Route 9 not far from the Massachusetts border. 

Today the nicest, warmest weather will actually be in northern Vermont, where some sun will boost temporaries to 50 or so in the mildest valleys and 40s elsewhere. 

Clouds will keep the southern half of the state in the 40s. 

This will actually feel warm compared to tomorrow and Wednesday. 

TUESDAY

We're still looking at a pretty potent disturbance and cold from to come through late tonight and Tuesday morning. Most of us won't get much snow, but we're still looking at some bad timing. 

The heavier snow showers should hit in time for the morning commute, so even the Champlain Valley might see some slick roads.  

The snow map is back again. National Weather Service
in South Burlington is calling for an inch or
two of snow tomorrow in the valleys. The Green 
Mountains could see several inches of new powder

Snow showers will also continue all day and it will be unseasonably (but nowhere near record) cold. The coldest high temperature on record for Tuesday in Burlington is 28 degrees, and it will get warmer than that. Sort of.

Highs should say in the 20s in higher elevations and 30s in the valleys. Blustery winds and continued snow showers will make it feel Januaryesque. 

Valleys will only see a half inch to at most two inches of snow, but this is a situation in which the Green Mountains will have a decent late season dump. 

 I'd say most of our mountains should see at least two to six inches of snow through Tuesday evening. The northern Greens, especially around Jay Peak could easily see eight or more inches of snow.

Late season skiers are probably happy about that. 

LATE WEEK

After a chilly Tuesday night with lows in the teens and 20s, Wednesday will be chilly and dry.  With some sun.  

At this point, it looks like Thursday will cloud up, introducing what might well be extended period of blah, chilly April weather. 

And narrow, steep dip in the jet stream will set up over the East Coast for the end of the week and weekend.  This will set up either a nor'easter type storm or a series of weaker storms riding north along the coast and on through New England. 

Unless things change radically in the forecast, this would guarantee cloudy skies, cool temporaries and high chances of rain Thursday night through Sunday. 

It's hard to say how much rain we'll get.  Early indications are the heaviest stuff would be south and east of us, and we'll be just stuck with occasional light rain.  But, we'll have to wait and see on that to be sure. 

It also looks like whatever comes from the sky Thursday and into the weekend will be rain. There might be some snow up in the high elevations, but that's to be determined. 

I don't see anything in the weather pattern beyond that suggesting lots of warmth and sunshine, so boo on that. But this time of year, normal temperatures are rising rapidly, so cool weather just doesn't have the same sting as it did even a couple weeks ago. 

 

Another National Hot Summer With Another Central U.S. "Warming Hole"

Long range predictions issued in the spring for what the nation's summer would be like turned out to be pretty darned accurate.  

Those forecasts said the West and East coasts had the best chances of a hot summer this year, while there was a somewhat lesser chance of that happening in the central and northern Plains.  

Here was the forecast for chances of above or
below normal temperatures for this past summer
This forecast was issued on May 16. 

That's just what happened.

As the Washington Post tells us:

"Many dozens of cities in the West, Northeast and Gulf Coast posted their hottest summer on record (as measured by average temperature for the three-month period). California and Arizona had the most locations with record hot summers."

For the record, here in Vermont, Burlington logged its third hottest summer.

Though the northern and central Plains and Midwest had some heat waves over the summer, it wasn't really a blockbuster one for heat.

Which follows a well defined trend. Summer temperatures in much of the middle third of the nation have not been warming like the East and West coasts. It's as if climate change is vacationing away from the Midwest during the summer. 

A recent paper in the Journal of the American Meteorological Society helps explain what's going on. Ironically, the seeming lack of climate-related summer warming in the Midwest is largely the fault of (drum roll......) climate change. 

This is how summer actually turned out. The deeper the
red, the warmer relative to average it was. Blue areas
were slightly cooler than average. This is pretty
darn close to that forecast from May 16.

The Plains have gotten wetter in the summer than in previous decades, according to the paper.  It's interesting that daytime highs in months like June, July and August in the Plains have not risen, but  overnight lows have.

Wetter, more humid days tend to suppress daytime temperatures in the summer, but such weather can keep nights warmer.   Writers of the paper note that average atmospheric pressure during the summer in the Plains has gone down, indicating the presence of more storm systems. 

Extra storm systems also pull down batches of cooler Canadian air as they pass through, contributing to that lack of warming.

 Fewer storms would have allowed air either move up from the south as heat waves, or just warm up under the strong sunshine of summer. 

Land use such as increased irrigation might also be contributing to the relative coolness in the Plains, but that doesn't seem to be the main factor.

And yes, climate change could well be contributing to the increased wetness in the Plains, so as usual with this type of thing, yes, a warming world might actually be cooling the the central U.S. in the summer.  

Vermont Forecast Keeps Getting A Colder And Colder Look

Dark, cool and dreary for August this morning in St. 
Albans, Vermont. It's going to be like October
probably through Thursday. 

 The cool spell that arrived in Vermont is now looking like it might well be one of the chilliest spells of August weather we've had in years. 

It won't be the coolest August weather on record, not by a long shot. As I wrote the other day, we used to regularly have autumn-like episodes of weather in August on a regular basis. 

Still, this will probably be the nippiest August regime since at least 2014.  That was the last time we had three consecutive days in Burlington in which high temperatures never made it out of the 60s. 

Even then, those three days in August, 2014 were in general about as cool, or even possibly slightly warmer than what's in the forecast for today through Thursday.  

Originally, today was supposed to the coolest day of the bunch. And it will be chilly by August standards with highs only in the 60s.  

But we should see glimpses of sun every once in awhile between the clouds, and there won't be all that many showers around. So you'll actually get to go outside and, I don't know, enjoy the isolated pockets of fall foliage that have already popped up?

Wednesday now looks to be the more shockingly chilly day of this.  At least shockingly compared to what we've seen most of the time this summer. 

The cold upper level low pressure causing this brisk weather will be right on top of us.  That will inspire lots of clouds, and numerous showers, though they will be light showers. 

But it will be a nasty day for late season summer visitors to Vermont. I hope they brought more than t-shirts and shorts. High temperatures will range from the mid-50s - that's it - over somewhat higher terrain of the north, to the mid-60s in banana belt towns in the Champlain Valley and lowlands of southeast and southwest Vermont. 

The forecast high of 63 in Burlington is normal for October 6.  We still probably won't have the coldest high on record for the date. That honor goes to August 21, 1982, when the "high" in Burlington reached a less-than-balmy 58 degrees. That was the day I mentioned previously in which people were skiing three inches of snow atop Killington. 

Speaking of snow, I do wonder if Mount Washington. The forecast high up there Wednesday is just 40 degrees, with lows in the mid-30s.  That might be cold enough for a few wet snowflakes atop New England's highest peak. 

It won't get cold enough for snow on the higher summits of Vermont's Green Mountains. Still, hikers should take note that summit temperatures will only be within a few degrees either side of 50 today through Thursday.  Rain showers will make it seem colder. A cotton t-shirt and sandals won't cut it, folks! 

The cool, showery weather is now forecast to continue well into Thursday, which is a change from forecasts issued a few days ago. Those earlier forecasts had said a warmup would start then, but now the warmer weather is postponed until Friday, and won't really kick into gear until the weekend. 

By Saturday and Sunday, we should see daytime highs poke into the low 80s for many of us. That's about normal, or a little warmer than average for this time of year. 

Until now, this August has been running decidedly on the warm side. But this cool spell might take the month down to the cool side of what is the new climate change normal for the month. It all depends on how balmy it gets - and stays - after this cold snap departs. 

I'm making a big deal out of a spell of autumn in August, only because by today's standards, it's odd. But like I said earlier in this post, and in a post I put up on Sunday, this kind of thing used to happen all the time in mid and late August. 

It's all just another way we've adjusted to a new normal in the age of climate change.   

Enjoy The Break In Vermont Humidity Siege: It Won't Last

Flowers in my St. Albans, Vermont gardens enjoying some
sunshine and somewhat cooler breezes than they've
had to endure most of this month. 

 I hope you're enjoying the break in the siege of humidity and heat Vermont has been under this summer as much as I have.   

You have something like three more days to embrace the dry weather before the humidity, showers, downpours and generally icky stickiness and stuffy nights come back. 

WARM STREAK RECORDS

The low temperature Thursday was 64 degrees in Burlington. Still on the warm side. But it ended a record breaking streak of 14 consecutive days with low temperatures above 64 degrees.  The old record was 13 back in 1988.

High humidity tends to keep nighttime temperatures up.  Unlike most summers, we had absolutely no breaks in the muggy weather for more than two weeks. Until Thursday. 

The lack of cool nights and wind really allowed Lake Champlain to heat up to near tropical levels. The water temperature has been as high as 80 degrees down to a depth of nine feet, which I've certainly never seen before.  

The warm Lake Champlain is actually bad news. Between the warmth of the water and the contaminants being swept into the lake by this month's flooding, that sets the stage for algae blooms. Cooler nights and breezes this weekend will help stir the water up a bit, so it is cooling down, at least temporarily. 

It got even cooler Friday morning, dipping to 59 in Burlington, the first time under 60 degrees since July 2.  

Flowers in my St. Albans, Vermont yard enjoy some
sunshine and dry air to keep the fungus at bay
for a change Friday evening. 

Today will mark Burlington's 19th consecutive day making it to at least 80 degrees. But we won't break the record for longest such streak.  That record is 25 days from July 22 through August 15, 1988.

After a warm but not humid sunny day today in the low to even mid-80s in spots today, a reinforcing shot of cool air is coming down from Quebec tonight. 

That means it's doubtful Burlington or practically anywhere else in Vermont will make it higher than the 70s Sunday afternoon.

Not that anybody's complaining.

Monday morning will be the coolest in this drier break, as most of us will be in the 50s, with 40s in the cooler hollows. Monday afternoon at this point is looking warm but dry - in the low 80s.  Then it's over, Again.

HUMIDITY SIEGE RETURNS 

The forces of summer evil - namely, the Bermuda High - are showing signs of another attack. That Bermuda High - the offshore heat pump responsible for summer hot spells, will be strengthening and moving westward over the next few days. 

The weak cold front that will come through early Sunday morning with just sprinkles of rain in a  few spots will stall to our south. Then that Bermuda High will push the front back north as a warm front Tuesday. 

The south flow will feed moisture into that front, so instead of sprinkles, it'll produce showers, some locally heavy as it comes back at us and stalls probably just to our north. 

Hydrangea flowers glow in evening light during a 
welcome dry spell Friday evening in St. Albans, Vermont. 

So it'll be back to the routine. Muggy nights, warm, sticky days, the ever-present risk of downpours, even a renewed (ugh!) chance of local flash flooding.  We'll have to deal with that again. 

As it looks now, Tuesday through Thursday and probably Friday gives us a daily chance of showers, storms and heavy downpours.  It definitely won't rain all the time. We'll have to look each morning during the week for updates on when/where it might rain the most.

We'll be back to each night staying in the muggy 60s. High temperatures in the upcoming week will be held down a little by clouds - highs should be in the sticky low 80s.

Toward next weekend, there are signs that we'll see less rain, but that would come in the form of another heat wave.  Things could change, but we could be looking at more 90 degree weather in about a week, with of course lots of humidity. 

I did say a few days ago that a northwest flow might keep hot temperatures mostly at bay for the rest of the month.  So much for that idea. That's a classic example of why one shouldn't rely on long range forecasts.

For what it's worth, some (but not all!) updated long range forecasts do continue to show the chance of some occasional cold fronts and bits of cooler, drier air coming in from the northwest into August

But there's also spells of warm or hot, humid weather thrown in between these cold fronts. The specifics and frequency of any cold fronts will undoubtably change as forecasts are updated. 

If you think Julys have been hot in recent years, you are correct.  This July is on pace to be one of the top five hottest in Burlington. If that happens, then each of the top five hottest Julys will have happened since 2018.

 

"Coldest" Morning Of The Vermont So Far Was Right About Normal, Actually

Wednesday was a candidate for the most perfect weather
day of the year in Vermont.  Trees aren't really turning
color yet, but the recent turn to more seasonable
temperatures might encourage some foliage in the coming days.

 This morning in Burlington, Vermont, the temperature went down to 47 degrees, the first time it was under 50 degrees since June 4.  

As far as I can determine, this looks like it might be the second longest period continuously above 50 degrees on record. This year it was 108 such days. In 2021, it was 110 days. 

This also  had to be one  of the latest or possibly even the latest first 50 of the autumn on record.  After all, it has been below freezing this time of year in Burlington, according to past weather records. 

All this is to say, it might have felt chilly this morning, but temperatures were actually very close to normal for the days around the Autumn Equinox. 

Morning lows in the warmer valleys of Vermont are usually within a few degrees of 50 degrees this time of year. Away from Lake Champlain, lows this time of year are generally in the 40s, which is right where most people were at dawn today 

The perennial cold spot, Saranac Lake, New York was down to 31 degrees today, but for them, that's totally par for the course in mid-September. The cold hollows of the Northeast Kingdom were in the upper 30s, but again, yawn. 

This of course, is what we've been waiting for in oddly humid June, July, August and early September. Tuesday was about as perfect a day as you could get: Deep blue skies dotted with just a few clouds, perfectly comfortable temperatures and a pleasant light breeze. It was a strong candidate for nicest day of 2023.

The good news is, the weather looks like it will stay almost as nice as Tuesday, with of course a few hiccups and caveats. 

Today will be another nice one.  We're back to having wildfire smoke in the atmosphere due to those ongoing Canadian fires. So the sky won't be as nice a deep blue as yesterday. It will have a disappointing haze to it. The smoke is aloft, so we don't really have to worry about air quality. 

Right now there's a weird storm forming off the east coast of Florida. Looks like it will be some sort of odd hybrid between a regular storm and a tropical storm. 

The effects on the ground won't matter either way. Things should get nasty in North Carolina and Virginia by Friday night, with gusty winds, storm surges and torrential rains. 

The question is how far this thing will move north.   Early signs suggest it might get shoved off to our south by strong high pressure building strength in Quebec, but there's no guarantees.   

Initial guesses are that rain might spread into southern Vermont over the weekend, but might not make it much further north than that. But nobody knows for sure. No flooding concerns with this one, though.

This silly storm could spread high clouds across Vermont like Lee did last Friday, which could give us another round of great sunsets. Especially with a little wildfire smoke in the upper atmosphere. 

Vermont August Had One Weird Cold Statistic, But The Month Was Actually Kinda Normal, But Too Rainy

Unsettled skies over Georgia, Vermont on August 26
were typical for the entire month in the Green 
Mountain State as we had another month of
frequent rains and even sometimes flooding.

August was another weird weather month in Vermont, and I'll start with what was really striking, at least to me. 

For all of August in Burlington - a month normally known for its impressive heat waves, the warmest it ever got was 83 degrees.  

That's the coldest maximum temperature for the month of August since almost a century ago - August, 1927 - which never got above 82 degrees. 

That's one impressive stat, to be honest. 

Especially since, if you add up all the days of the month, August was only slightly cooler than normal. 

And we're talking about the warmer "new normal."  Had this August occurred say in 1980, when averages weren't so skewed by climate change, August would have actually been a bit warmer than normal. 

The heat was similarly tempered in  August statewide. Montpelier, St. Johnsbury, Rutland and Bennington all said their hottest day of the month was between 81 and 83 degrees.

The month probably felt warmer to you than it was, because it was pretty humid much of the time. Nighttime temperatures were pretty close to the "new normal" average while daytime highs were on the cool side. 

The relative coolness of Vermont's August, 2023 stands in contrast to most of the rest of the world. Experts say August on a global basis will either be the warmest on record or very close to it. 

To nobody's surprise, the stats also show it was another wet month.  Burlington's 4.9 inches was about 1.3 inches on the wet side. The rain was frequent, too. Only 12 days in August were precipitation-free in Burlington. 

Other reporting sites were even wetter. Montpelier and Rutland had around six inches for August. That's better than the eye-popping July totals that led to such extreme flooding then, but it was still impressive.

That flooding continued into August as well. Severe flooding struck in and around Middlebury on August 3, and that dangerous flash flooding spread into Rutland and surrounding communities on August 4. 

LOOKING AHEAD

We're starting September this morning with a cool, almost autumnal morning. Most of us were in the 40s at dawn. Gallup Mills, Vermont and Saranac Lake, New York were down to 37 degrees and Island Pond was 39.

Almost makes you think fall is arriving. 

Postpone that thought. 

After those cool daytime temperatures I talked about in August, we have a shot at reaching 90 degrees in the days ahead. Even if we don't get that warm,  reading will go well past that August peak of 83 degrees in Burlington. 

In fact, current forecasts bring Burlington, and many other places in Vermont up to 85 degrees or more each day Sunday through Thursday. 

Longer range forecasts are less reliable, but for what it's worth, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center tilts our odds strongly in favor of generally above normal temperatures through mid-month. 

Here We Go Again: After A Cool Break, Another Vermont Drenching Possible

Too soon? The first autumnal cool spell of the summer
hit, and this house in Burlington, Vermont was already
set for the upcoming winter with snow shovels and
a salt bucket. Instead of snow, we're watching for
the risk of potential heavy rain again late Thursday and Friday. 

 We've got one more nice, dry day to go today before we revert back to that same old drama of watching the skies for severe storms and heavy rain. 

This morning was about tied with yesterday as being the coolest since mid-June.  In many northern Vermont communities on Tuesday, temperatures never made it to 70 degrees. It was the first autumnal hint of the summer. 

Today will be a little warmer, but still refreshing and dry. New potential problems start later Thursday. 

A couple of pretty strong disturbances are heading our way.  They'll at first pull humid air back into the region by Thursday night, and that will linger through Friday.

Unlike in previous forecasts from a couple days ago, meteorologists are seeing signs of scattered showers and storms that could come any time Thursday, but especially in the afternoon and evening. They will be hit and miss, so not everybody will get wet. And Thursday's activity won't renew any flooding problems.

The issue now is that Thursday night, we could have strong to locally severe storms, with heavy rain, and more heavy rainers are likely on Friday. 

The threat of storms Thursday night is still iffy.  Meteorologists are seeing signs that the atmosphere could support a few strong to severe ones, especially north. Usually, storms really get going in the heat of the day, not at night. 

Thursday night  might end up being an exception. But the alchemy has to line up just right to pull something like that off, so it's a wait and see game. We'll have a better idea on this by tomorrow morning. 

More locally heavy rain is definitely something to watch on Friday, too.  We'll have to watch for slow-moving showers and thunderstorms containing downpours. 

The good news is that - for a change - it will have been a few days since any downpours hit Vermont by the time the potential storms roll in Thursday night. The last time it rained hard anywhere in the state was on Saturday. 

The soils, though still wet, have had a chance to dry out some. That means they'll be able to absorb some of the rainfall we expect Thursday night and Friday. 

Bottom line: Wait for details on this, but Thursday night could end up being rather noisy with storms. 

And, as we often have this long, weird summer, we need to be ready for just the possibility of local flash floods once again. 

So far, this new episode doesn't look like it will be particularly widespread. In fact, depending on how things go, there might be no issues at all. 

Spring Is Over For Now In Vermont. Enjoy The Chill, Showers, Clouds Into May

An emerging spring sugar maple leaf amid today's
rain in St. Albans, Vermont. 

Did you love the warm, sunny weather Friday afternoon?  Was Saturday OK for you, with its relatively mild temperatures and lack of rain?  

Hope you didn't miss out on it! It'll be awhile before such weather is back.

GLOOMY WEEK?

As forecast, a drenching rain is falling across Vermont today.  It's gotten to be on the dry side for this time of year. So the gloomy day long raindrops are a good thing, despite the fact it's interfering with outdoor fun and work. 

Most of us can expect total rainfall through tomorrow morning to run over an inch.  Not enough to cause any flooding, but you will see rivers go up and run fast without quite spilling over their banks.  It'll be pretty soggy underfoot, too. 

The problem is, the wet weather isn't just a today thing. Clouds, showers and cool weather are now here for an extended stay. 

As often happens in the spring, the weather pattern gets stuck.  More often than  not, when the weather gets stuck, we in Vermont get the cloudy end of the stick. 

High pressure way up in northeastern Quebec will prevent the storm causing today's rain from really moving away. 

So, the risk of showers - and mountain snow showers - will continue pretty much all week. 

That's not to say you won't see the sun at all. It'll peek through from time to time, especially as we get later in the week. 

But with the storm lingering, at least in the upper atmosphere, cold air will sit over us. Especially in the higher levels of the atmosphere. If the sun breaks through the clouds, it will heat the ground  a bit, cause updrafts, interact with the chilly air above and create showers. 

Spring foliage begins to emerge on a rainy Sunday in
St. Albans, Vermont while daffodils look on in the background.

At least we'll see gradual improvement as the week goes on. Monday will be almost a washout. You'll probably dodge a lot of mostly light showers Tuesday.  Breaks between showers will last longer Wednesday through Friday.  

It's hard to say when this weather pattern will fully break.  This kind of thing can last one week, two weeks, even three weeks in some cases. The computer models that meteorologists at least partly rely upon aren't good at predicting when these blocky weather patterns will loosen up. 

For now, the iffy long range forecasts have us in a cool, showery pattern through the first week of May.  This prediction is subject to change, of course. 

BRIGHT SIDES

There are bright sides to all this. 

So far at least, forecasts indicate the core of the coldest air seems like it wants to go by to our south and west. Those long range forecasts seem like they want to keep the coldest air, relative to average, off to our south and west. Mostly in the mid-Mississippi and Ohio river valleys.  

A broad area in the Midwest from Nebraska to Ohio are under freeze warnings tonight. Some areas in th Midwest and Plains could see record low temperatures. 

Chances are we in Vermont will be on the chilly side most days into early May, but it might not be so extreme or consistent.  At this point, we see chances of the usual light freezes we get this time of year, but nothing record breaking. Chances are also greater than average that we will be somewhat wetter than average into early May. 

That doesn't sound like we will have enjoyable weather, but it has its benefits. For one, spring is way ahead of average, which puts at risk for damage from late frosts. Cool, cloudy weather will stall the progress of spring, which will prevent even more frost and freeze vulnerability. 

Second, the clouds will likely prevent temperatures from getting too cold at night, which would prevent the risk of frost damage. 

Also, for the past couple of years, Vermont has been battling the horrible spongy caterpillars (formerly known by a name that included an eastern European slur). These disgusting insects deforested much of Vermont's landscape in the early summers of 2021 and 2022.

Damp, drizzly, foggy weather in the spring encourages a type of fungus that has absolutely no effect on us humans. But it  can decimate spongy caterpillar populations. We can only hope. 

The weather pattern also has a bright side for the whole nation, too.  It will suppress (though not entirely eliminate) the chances of severe weather and tornadoes for at least the next week or so. 

Which makes cloudy, chilly, wet spring skies easier to take.